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Dec 24, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 24, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | December 24, 2024 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:37
This is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. How are you taking us in? I appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, flying solo today. Uh, Kelly on vacation.
0:49
Wyatt, uh, hung out with us yesterday. We appreciate that. Uh, what a show today on this Christmas Eve morning. And by the way, merry Christmas to you and yours. Uh, if you celebrate Christmas, that is.
1:01
Uh, I do not, but I love Christmas. Who doesn't love Christmas? And, uh, in that vein, later today, the top ten Christmas songs of all time as I see them. Listen, I take this very seriously. It's my list.
1:15
I don't wanna hear any guff about it. I got the top ten. It's an annual tradition here on the Numbers Game. That is what will conclude the show today, top ten Christmas jams of all time.
1:23
Uh, they don't have to be jams, by the way, just songs. Um, some classic remakes, some originals. We'll get to that coming up. Uh, NFL power rankings on the way. Nick Whelan on the NFL and NBA, Nick from, uh, Rotowire.
1:37
Siyana Jad from Monumental Sports Network, talking both National Football League and perhaps beyond as well.
1:43
Will Hill with all of his bets across multiple sports as, uh, the week is, uh, college basketball and hockey sort of taking the week off, so the sports are slim.
1:52
But the, uh, the best of the best, of course, in full play with, uh, week seventeen kicking off tomorrow in the NFL. And Bill Connelly joins us from ESPN. He is the, uh, the originator, the pioneer of SP+.
2:06
For those who don't know what that is, Bill used to work, before he worked at ESPN, he used to work with Aaron Schatz over at Football Outsiders.
2:12
He used to do, uh, college football for Football Outsiders, Football Outsiders being, when Aaron started Football Outsiders, the pioneer of football analytics.
2:20
Bill did college football, and he developed this stat called SP+, which is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, and is intended to be predictive and forward-facing.
2:33
Not one of these things that says, "Oh, here's what you've done, here's your face," but really try to be predictive.
2:37
So we'll get his, uh, thoughts on the four quarterfinal games in college football, in the College Football Playoff, and of course, who he's got as the short shot to win it all, uh, in the first college football year of a twelve-team playoff.
2:51
And hopefully, these, uh, games-- Well, maybe not hopefully. Maybe, maybe your bets will dictate otherwise, that you don't want it to be any closer than the first round games were.
2:59
Uh, as far as the game last night, let us begin there with, uh, Monday Night Football. And this felt, we were throwing around texts last night.
3:05
This felt like one of these games where, uh, I remember when I was a kid, they used to have, like, uh, Joe Montana throw the, the five and nine rams down a flight of stairs, as my buddy Jeff Huss would say.
3:15
This, [laughs] this was a blowout from the outset. The Packers beat the Saints thirty-four to nothing. This was a contest play for me.
3:23
Um, I hope everybody made money on this, whether you had it pre-flop or not, because this was one of these games that if you were paying attention, the in-game fest ought to have begun.
3:34
If you, if you didn't have conviction on laying fourteen or fourteen and a half pre-flop, you didn't w- need to watch much football before you knew how this one was gonna go.
3:43
The Saints came into it, of course, without Derek Carr, without Alvin Kamara, without Chris Olave, without Rahee, uh, Rashid Shaheed, without Marquez Valdes-Scantling, without Taysom Hill.
3:53
I could go on, but you get the idea. Uh, Packers ten plays, sixty-three yards right out of the gate. Love to Wicks from two out, as, uh, Ugo Amadi of the Saints tried to perform the rare cornerback flop on the play.
4:05
Seven to nothing Green Bay. Uh, the refs were not, were not fooled by it. New Orleans punting after, uh, looking like they were gonna go for it on fourth and seven, but then they false started.
4:16
Green Bay immediately seventeen plays, ninety-six yards. That took eight fifty-five off the clock. Jacobs in from two. Um, that was a fourteen to nothing lead with eleven forty-three left in the second quarter.
4:28
And then after another New Orleans three and out, Green Bay six plays, sixty-seven yards. Chris Brooks in from one.
4:33
Twenty-one to nothing, and that is really all you need to know about that football game, as the Saints go down hard, thirty-four to nothing. It is the first shutout in the NFL this season. First shutout.
4:45
It took us, uh, sixteen, the last game of the sixteenth week o-of games to get there, but here we are, the first shutout of the NFL season.
4:53
The Saints had been shutout only once in the three hundred and sixty-nine games they played before this. So make that two out of three hundred and seventy.
5:03
Uh, Green Bay now six to one to win the NFC, twelve to one to win the Super Bowl.
5:08
The only sort of negative side, or potentially negative side for the Packers in this, Christian Watson with a knee injury late in the second quarter.
5:15
Uh, he did come back to play a few plays, several plays actually, four plays in the third quarter before sitting, uh, for the duration. So that's the only sort of question mark.
5:23
They're gonna, uh, uh, Watson is gonna go under, undergo tests, I should say, today, so we'll learn more of the extent of that injury. But other than that, uh, Packers did all they needed to do in this one.
5:33
The only other sort of note in this game, well, a couple.
5:36
One, uh, our buddy Todd Wishnev was upset that, uh, he felt like when Malik Willis got in that game and the Packers had a fourth and two, uh, in plus territory, up twenty-seven to nothing, that they shouldn't have thrown it deep.
5:48
He got a little offended by that. I'm not sure if anybody else did, but I understand the sentiment. Uh, old school football didn't used to do that. Used to just run it into, uh, the line, a cloud of dust.
5:57
If you got the two yards, you got them. If you didn't, you didn't. But they went deep, and it ended up being thirty-four to nothing.
6:01
The other thing was the, uh, the interim coach, Darren Rizzi's gaffe at the end of the, uh, second quarter.
6:06
The Saints, uh, down twenty-one to nothing at this point, and the Saints, uh, matriculating the ball down the field. They get it to a third and six at their own forty-nine with forty-six seconds left.
6:18
Rattler to Kevin Austin Jr. for seventeen. He fumbles it out of bounds. And the club, so they're already in field goal range. The clock keeps going at this point. Clock keeps going at this point.
6:29
Plenty of time to get in the end zone. You just got to use your timeout that you have. Instead, they don't. And 24 seconds tick off the clock.
6:39
Now, Rizzy's explanation after the game was he said a couple officials told him that while the clock stopped momentarily, that it would remain stopped.
6:47
Instead, when it rewound and the game clock started again, he was busy talking to his coordinators. So he missed it, and 24 seconds go off the clock, and then Rattler takes an ill-advised sack, and that was it.
6:59
They didn't even get into – they were knocked out of field goal range, and that was probably their best chance to score in this football game. And so 34 to nothing it is.
7:07
And it gets to the questions now, if you look macro on the Packers. If in the AFC you believe, as I think most do, that there's three teams legitimately that could win the Super Bowl.
7:18
Yes, upsets can happen in a postseason. But really, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Baltimore are your three top candidates in the AFC.
7:26
In the NFC, if you believe that Detroit, Minnesota, and Philadelphia, in whatever order, are the three that could legitimately win the Super Bowl, do you add the Packers to that mix?
7:37
Do you believe that the Packers legitimately could win the NFC or could win the Super Bowl? I think I might put them in there. Might put them in there because they're just dangerous enough.
7:48
And Jordan Love at his best is really good. And that script that they had yesterday, I get it. It's against the depleted Saints team.
7:55
But just feeding Joshua Jacobs and controlling a game like that, obviously they're going to be on the road. Here's the thing with the Packers, right?
8:02
This is the problem with that thought exercise is the Packers cannot win the NFC North. So they are slotted in at the number six wildcard position right now. And that is, I would say, unlikely to change.
8:17
It could change, but I don't know. We'll find out after this coming week, after they play the Vikings, if it's more solidified. Right now, if the playoffs were to begin, and I get it, there's two weeks left.
8:27
But just to look ahead to some of these matchups, this obviously subject to change. But I think it's one of these years where it's less subject to change than in other years.
8:36
In the NFC right now, you would have the Lions. I get it, Vikings fans. You get a shot still to control your own destiny here in the last two weeks.
8:43
So I'm just saying, if the playoffs were to begin right now, Detroit would be your number one seed. The Commanders as the number seven seed would travel to Philly to take on the number two Eagles.
8:53
I'm sure the Eagles line will be disrespectful to the Commanders. I'm sure the betting line will be. The number six Packers. So think about that. You have a division in the
9:03
NFC North that could potentially end up with three different teams with 13 wins. That is still a possibility. That is unbelievable.
9:14
And the Packers, for all their effort, would end up with a number six seed on the road at the NFC West leading Rams. Again, if it's to begin tomorrow, which it does not.
9:25
Packers would, I don't know, that would be a really tightly lined football game. The number six Packers at the number three Rams.
9:32
The number five Vikings would travel to the number four Falcons as it's currently constituted. Vikings would be a short favorite in that game, probably a field goal favorite.
9:40
I would imagine AFC right now, the number seven seeded Broncos would travel to the number two Bills. The Bills would be massive favorites in that game as the Chiefs would get the bye.
9:50
The number six Chargers would travel to the number three Steelers. That would be an interesting game to bat around the week leading up.
9:56
And the number five Ravens right now as is, they are not in the driver's seat in the AFC North. They would travel to play the Texans. They are five and a half point favorites against the Texans at Houston tomorrow.
10:10
All the way up to five and a half, by the way, this game tomorrow between the Ravens and the Texans.
10:15
So that gives an indication as to what that line might be in a hypothetical playoff game come wild card week, which is now just over two and a half weeks away.
10:27
As far as bets that I've made, again, if you missed the guessing lines yesterday, Wyatt was in for Kelly.
10:31
The bets that I have made after a few weeks of really slim pickings of the NFL, I have four bets that are actually in pocket already. The Chiefs minus two and a half tomorrow at Pittsburgh.
10:45
That is the one where I jumped on that first. That was the first game we got to. That was the first line I liked.
10:50
Again, if the Chiefs can win tomorrow, they clinch the number one seed in the AFC playoff picture and they would have 24 days until they played another meaningful football game, meaning that they wouldn't have to worry about week 18.
11:05
It would have no impact on where they end up in the postseason. And then, of course, they would have to buy during the wild card week. So 24 days if the Chiefs are able to win tomorrow. So I laid the two and a half.
11:16
I also have the Commanders at minus four and a half on a Sunday hosting the Atlanta Falcons. I thought that was a disrespectful line. These lines with Washington, very disrespectful.
11:26
Although Atlanta's taking some money, quite frankly, it's going against me. But I like the Commodores there.
11:32
I did take the Panthers in the Swallow Hard game of the week, taking the Panthers plus the points, all those points in their football game.
11:39
And I am laying the Lions, laying the three and a half with the Lions on Monday night against the Niners. I was a little surprised, despite all the Lions injuries, that that is as low as it is.
11:50
The Lions obviously could clinch the number one seed in the NFC North if they were to win this game and Minnesota were to lose to Green Bay.
11:57
Not an impossibility at all, but could also be headed to a week 18 showdown for all the marbles against the Vikings week 18. We'll come back, NFL power rankings. And I got a bowl game pick today in Hawaii.
12:10
A little Christmas Eve bowl action. Pretty much the only thing going on. It's coming up. Numbers game. Visa, the esports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:27
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12:34
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12:51
That is S-E-W-E-L-L-S-B-B-Q sauce.com. Flavor this good is just a click away. Skill Alexander, we had tweets at Beating the Book.
13:00
I always appreciate the, uh, the tweets not only for this show, A Numbers Game, which, uh, Kelly and I do, uh, every day here with, uh, with love.
13:07
Hope, uh, our enthusiasm, uh, sort of, uh, comes through the screen and through the radio for you because we just have a great time, and you all make it as, as great as anything about this show is, is the li-listener feedback to this.
13:21
But we also get feedback on the Megapod as well, the Beating the Book Megapod with Todd Wishnev and Will Hill. Stu Magoo, uh, tweets in, "The greatest show. Doesn't get any better than the Megapod." Appreciate that.
13:32
And a lot of people are getting their, uh, their podcast results from the years. Teasers and Parlays showing us his graphic. Uh, "Another year to increasing ROI and expanding my betting knowledge.
13:42
Thank you, Gil and Kelly, for all your hard work on ANG, Will Hill and Todd Wishnev for the best football pad, uh, best football pod out there, and Wes Reynolds and Matt Brown for the best content on golf betting."
13:52
How about that? "Numbers Game ends up one, should've been more from, uh, Will Hill two, Beating the Book number three, and Long Shots four. Thank you, Teasers and Parlays."
13:59
Thank you for all your support on behalf of everybody, uh, in that tweet. Michael Harrison, uh, "Love it when Fox switches to some crazy Skins home game around four oh two PM LOL.
14:09
Something about that field comes through great this time of day." Uh, talking about how, uh, the Skins now have had three unbelievable finishes.
14:16
Once again, the Hail Miriam against the Bears, the Terry McLaurin mad dash against the, uh, Cowboys, followed up by the missed extra point where the Skins lost, and of course, this last game with Jayden Daniels', uh, engineering the drive to beat the Eagles.
14:28
Sean Boland, "I've been a listener for about three years. What I've learned from you guys is how to bet smarter, find an edge, exploit it. I figured out how to use data without models.
14:36
I can honestly say thank you for how I look at wagers and handicapping." Thank you so much, Sean, for the very kind note.
14:42
And the better life, Tim Lawson, "Not surprising that my top podcast of twenty twenty-four was a Numbers Game," right here, uh, on VSiN, the sports betting network. Always appreciate that from everybody.
14:54
Jason Stark, "Happy Hanukkah, Gil. Thanks for the Christmas wishes. Great to listen to you driving around doing last-minute prep for tonight. You're a vital part of my days."
15:02
And you, sir, are a vital part of m- uh, part of mine. Uh, that applies to, uh, each and every person who listens to this show. Roger Jones, "Happy holiday, guys," to, uh, Kelly and me. I appreciate that.
15:11
Uh, JasonH11, "Merry Christmas to Kelly. Hope the hurricane isn't too bad. Happy Hanukkah to Gilly and ANG's favorite yinzer, Todd Wishnev. May your New Year be full of discounted parking."
15:20
And that in his yinzer voice, best yinzer voice. Appreciate it. Merry Christmas to, uh, you and yours. May it be a safe and, uh, lovely holiday, uh, here.
15:29
Whatever, what are, whatever you choose to do, whether you're at home, whether you travel to family, or whether you're just chilling, watching the Hawaii Bowl tonight, which is, uh, what a sad person like me is gonna be doing.
15:39
Sad, and, uh, you know, I'm trying to make money, though, in that respect.
15:42
Uh, there is something a little lonely about the Hawaii Bowl traditionally, though, if you're sitting at home on Christmas Eve watching this thing with a lot of empty, a lot of empty seats.
15:50
But it's a chance to make money.
15:52
Uh, and this bowl season is, when I say sneaky good in terms of making money, I mean sneaky because we're so focused on the college football playoff, we almost forget bowl season is there anymore.
16:04
Uh, today it is, uh, the Hawaii Bowl between South Florida and San Jose State. The Spartans of San Jose State, three-point favorites. The total is at sixty-four and a half.
16:13
Steve Fezzik a, a while back gave out the over in this, I believe. I'm not sure if he, if he still likes it at sixty-four and a half, but he certainly liked it a couple points lower than this.
16:22
Could be a shootout here with the Spartans and the Bulls tonight. I am on San Jose State pre-flop. I don't, uh, typically pre-flop all of these, but there is a handful of these bowl games where I do pre-flop.
16:34
You may remember the Memphis Tigers play from last week. Uh, I am on, which got home, by the way, I'm on the Spartans here. The S- the, the Spartans have lost by nine combined points at Wazzu and at Colorado State.
16:47
They gave Boise State and UNLV fits at home before they faded late. They beat Stanford by a field goal, uh, salvaging some, uh, some late-season, uh, happiness there, and a bowl win would add to that.
16:59
One of the better run defenses in the group of, uh, five, by the way, allowing just four point one yards per carry, not including sacks. That ranks eighteenth nationally.
17:08
And of course, you know their head coach, Ken Niuma- uh, Matololo from, uh, his days at Navy. And, uh, he is in his first year at San Jose State, and I like the Spartans in this. I think they finish this season strong.
17:21
That's the play tonight in college football in Honolulu.
17:25
And of course, we won't get another college football bowl till the day after Christmas, but we have NFL to, uh, ride us through with a double header tomorrow and of course, a Thursday night game as well.
17:34
By the way, tomorrow on the show, Jake Bensiquin will be in studio with me for a couple segments.
17:38
He is one of the remaining forty-four people, one of the pr- people responsible for the remaining, [clears throat] pardon me, forty-five entries left in Circus Survivor.
17:47
So we're gonna talk to him about how he's going to play the Christmas Quirk. Is this the moment? I mean, this is moving day at the Masters in terms of Survivor. How's he gonna play it?
17:56
Is he gonna play it, you know, as safely, quote-unquote, as possible? 'Cause there's nothing really safe on Christmas, though Baltimore now out to a five-and-a-half point favorite.
18:04
But based on what each of these guys has left, or gals has left, how's he gonna play it? How's he monetizing? Is he doing the whole circa credit thing? Is this where it begins, the hedging begins in earnest?
18:16
Uh, because I think every one of those guys has to sort of expect That tomorrow could be the end. Tomorrow and/or Thursday could be the end. And that's kind of been the, the looming specter of the Survivor contest.
18:28
We'll have Jake Bensicwin on the show tomorrow, uh, to discuss that. And Carl Sack, who moves global NBA lines on a huge NBA day on Christmas Day as the NBA tries to say, "Oh, we're here, too.
18:40
This used to be our day, NFL. Damn you." Uh, we'll talk a whole bunch of NBA with Carl Sack as well. Uh, as far as our power rankings, it is time for the Week seventeen edition of NFL Power Rankings. Plug it in.
18:55
[machine whirring] Lone Star, ninety-two point five, classic rock, Dallas. Oh, sorry, was that somebody? Was that came out of the... Oh, so okay. Um, here's the thing with the NFL power rankings.
19:08
If you get to this point in the season and they're moving around a lot, uh, your power rankings probably stink.
19:14
But, uh, this is the first week where most of these, most of these remained the same, and I think that's kind of a good place to be if you're handicapping the NFL.
19:23
They should be kind of solidified with very little movement.
19:26
And I talked about this on the Shoulda Bet More podcast with Will Hill, his podcast, uh, a little bit Sunday night, which is, do you feel any differently this week about the teams that are headed to the postseason than you did last week?
19:37
And the answer is probably not really. We didn't learn much about anything. I think they're probably what you thought they were. Uh, nothing has changed at the top for me. The Ravens remain number one.
19:46
The Ravens remain number one after they take down the, uh, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
19:50
It was a game that was tied relatively late before the Ravens took a two-touchdown lead, and then Mike Tomlin did his fourth quarter, "I'm down two touchdowns, let me just punt this away" thing, which he's done two straight weeks now against the Eagles and the s- and the, uh, Ravens.
20:05
Don't get it. But Ravens are my number one, uh, despite the five losses. The Bills remain number two, even though they just get by the New England Patriots. They're entitled to a, a bad game or a middling game.
20:18
The Bills haven't had one in a long time, so the, uh, the Bills are number two. I know they lost a game, but the Bills are solid. Number three, the Lions.
20:26
The injuries are the only thing keeping the Lions out of the number one spot. Uh, they remain number three for the week. And the Chiefs, despite being fifteen and one... Are they fifteen and one? Yes. Fifteen and one?
20:37
No. Fourteen and one. That's right. Bes- despite being fourteen and one and trying to get to fifteen and one and the clinch of the number one seed, they remain as the number four team.
20:47
But yes, if they get home field throughout the playoffs and the AFC has to go through Arrowhe-Arrowhead and, uh, I know it's not Arrowhead anymore. It's... What is it, GoHey is it called?
20:55
Uh, and, uh, and Patrick Mahomes just has to, uh, outperform in sixty-minute intervals. Could the Chiefs win it all again and get the elusive three-peat that no one has ever done in the Super Bowl era?
21:05
Of course they can, but they're the number four power rank team. The Eagles, despite losing to Washington, I'm not gonna knock them for not having Jalen Hurts.
21:14
Though again, they couldn't overcome five turnovers by Washington. That's another story. But you can't knock them for not having Jalen Hurts. They're number five. And the Packers crushing the Saints.
21:23
Um, listen, it's the Saints still. They remain at number six. And I do think that's why I asked that question earlier. Are the Packers legitimately a Super Bowl contender? I kind of think they are.
21:36
I have the Vikings at number seven, and I know Vikings fans are like, "But we beat the Packers already." Um, if you beat them again, I'm sure that changes for me. But right now, Packers six, Vikings seven.
21:45
The Washington football team, WFT, remains at number eight for me. Or actually, this is the first movement of the, uh, of the actual week. I did flip Washington and Houston. Washington goes from nine to eight.
21:57
Houston goes from eight to nine. Washington deserves that. They beat a good team in Philadelphia. Jayden Daniels is the ultimate wild card of all these teams.
22:05
Again, a lot of folks talking about how they don't want to play the Bengals in the playoffs. I'm not sure you want to play Jayden Daniels or Washington in the playoffs. Texans go to nine.
22:12
I just don't think this football team is good. The injuries mount with Tank Dell. I mean, they're good, don't get me wrong. They're just not great. Pittsburgh has never gotten higher than around this range for me.
22:22
They're, they are at number ten. I think they deserve to be a number ten team. Bucs, listen, are you gonna get stripped by two defensive backs, uh, in key moments every week? I don't think so.
22:32
They remain at number eleven. I got the Broncos at twelve, the Rams at number thirteen, Chargers fourteen, Bengals fifteen, rounding out my top fi- fifteen in the National Football League.
22:44
Uh, and let me just say this about the, the Bengals. Just anecdotally, heard a lot of love on the Bengals this week against the, uh, Broncos. That line is up to three and a half, so it's not just ana- anecdotally.
22:53
The market taking money on the Bengals, I'm not so sure I get that. Um, Bengals, like the Broncos, haven't beaten anybody, and they barely, um, you know, seventeen to six against a DTR-led Browns team late in that game.
23:08
I'm not so sure why people are so all up in the Bengals' grill this week. We'll come back. Nick Whalen on the NBA next right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:20
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23:50
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now and unwrap your winning edge today. Skill Alexander, Merry Christmas. Uh, Merry Christmas to, uh, each and every one of you.
23:58
Whether you tweet or not, we do get tweets at Beating The Book, LosOfVegas514. Actually, Frank Doyle, pardon me. Seeing a plus one twenty on the Packers to be the number six seed on ESPN Bet. How we feeling about that?
24:10
Uh, there's still a possibility that they could go up or down, but six feels kind of right.
24:17
Of course, if they You know, there is a possibility where they won't have to play Week E- 18, and they would be locked into it as well. I don't hate it, let's put it that way.
24:26
I'd have to look at more of the permutations, but I don't hate that, 'cause six is really where they're most likely to be at this point. Uh, Derek Michael 87, "You guys are the best. Merry Christmas.
24:35
Patiently waiting for Gilley's Christmas song breakdown." So am I. Are we at the Christmas song bar yet? No, not yet. Okay. Uh, LosVegas514, "Yo, putting in my pick for best Christmas song.
24:45
Merry Christmas Baby, Chuck Brown. Gotta have some go-go Christmas music." Chuck Brown did not make the list. I'm sorry. Uh, the godfather of go-go, for those- those of you from the DMV. Studbod.
24:57
This man calls himself Studbod on Twitter. Wow. Uh, "Take it frame by frame it reference on a Numbers Game pod yesterday reminded me of 19 ni- uh, 19-naughty-3 and OPP. Loved it."
25:10
Uh, I'm glad you caught it, Studbod, 'cause I'm not sure how many people did.
25:12
I, uh, I think it was about the, uh, Joe Burrow touchdown pass where it looked like to the naked eye there's no possible way he could've been in the air when he threw the touchdown pass to Tee Higgins, and instead they, uh...
25:23
How did they explain it? They took it frame by frame it. Thank you for noticing. Uh, DJ Jams, "I made some money. Let's go." Oh, DJ Jams is showing me a, uh, a ticket of his.
25:31
He played the Saints alternate points total last night at under two and a half. What was that? Eight to one? Eight point... Oh, plus 730 you got it at, on a profit boost. Nice. Very nice. Uh, congratulations on that.
25:43
Roger Jones, "Gil, I'm sorry, but I have to call BS." You know Mr. Fezzik, because it's Twitter and I don't wanna get, uh, get him angry.
25:49
Not only would not like the total in the bowl game if it moved a few points, he would chastise those who, who bet it after it moved. Yes, he would. You're absolutely right.
25:57
Uh, and then, uh, Y-Town Gambler, "Highlight of my day so far was hearing Gil and I are on the same side with San Jose State. Let's go Spartans." Let's do it.
26:05
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, this is the only guy who ever grew up in Green Bay and decided, "You know, I'm not gonna be a Packers fan. I'm gonna be a Jaguars fan."
26:13
It's our buddy from, uh, RotoWire, senior analyst at RotoWire, and of course, uh, host on the SiriusXM NBA channel. It's Nick Whelan. How you doing, Nick?
26:22
That, that felt like a cheap shot, uh, given what we saw from the Jaguars, uh, on Sunday in Vegas. But, uh, unfortunately, you are accurate. You are accurate.
26:29
I, I have not met a single other Jaguars fan, you know, not o- not only in the city of Green Bay, but in the state of Wisconsin. But good to be here, as always, man.
26:36
I always love doing this show, and been enjoying listening to the Megapod every week as well. It's been in the rotation. Oh, thank you. We'll try to keep the cursing down. Maybe.
26:43
By the way, Megapod today, special early Megapod, Matt Brown. Vsan's own Matt Brown is our guest. All right. So we're doing that. Can, can you just real briefly, can you tell people how do you...
26:52
W- what was the set of circumstances where you're like, "Oh, all of my friends are Packers fans. The entire city is Packers fans. You know, but not me. I'm gonna be a Jaguars fan"? How did that go down? Yeah.
27:02
Uh, one of the worst decisions of my life, no question about it.
27:04
[laughs] Uh, you know, I, I think some people could probably empathize with this, where, you know, you're younger and you're watching a lot of football, you're playing a lot of Madden 2002 on the PS1, and y- you know, you attach yourself to certain teams, certain players.
27:15
For whatever reason, that was the Jaguars for me. And, you know, most, most of my friends kinda grew out of that phase. They, they wised up. They became Packers fans.
27:23
Uh, they, they, you know, did not stay with the dark side. And I stuck with it way too long.
27:27
You know, all of a sudden, seventh, eighth grade into high school, I'm still a Jaguars fan, and it, it just reached a point of no return.
27:33
You know, I became the Jaguars guy, and I, I couldn't just, I couldn't renege on that. So basically I got in too deep. I, I picked the wrong franchise.
27:40
Uh, you know, we, we had our nice run to the AFC title game in, like, 2017, whatever year that was. [laughs] That's right. Other than that, uh, just a brutal, brutal decision by me. Oh.
27:48
Uh, but, uh, I gotta stick with it, man. One of the worst decisions of his life, and he's sticking with it. All right, Nick. Good.
27:54
By the way, you can follow Nick on, uh, Twitter at Whelan, but substitute the L with the, uh, number one. Okay, speaking of the NFL, uh, I have a list from you of leans. Yeah.
28:03
I'm not sure which of these are actual bets or are they still all leans. Let's start with tomorrow. Uh, the Ravens are now up to five and a half. You still leaning Ravens at that number?
28:13
I- it's, it's more of a lean than a, than a lock, I would say. But really more than anything, I, I'm looking to fade this Houston team. I, I know they're at home.
28:19
I know they, you know, they played Kansas City relatively well last week on the road. But Houston has just not impressed me for, for the most part this season. I think the defense is legit.
28:28
You know, the pass defense specifically continues to improve. The pass rush has been solid. But this offense is just not the unit that we thought we were getting. And, you know, we saw flashes earlier in the season.
28:37
You know, I think they were up over 400 yards in three of their first four games. And this is an offense that's routinely struggling to get to 300, 350 yards now total as we get into the back half of the year.
28:47
And, uh, you're now taking Tytus out, out of the equation as well.
28:50
I mean, I think it's, it's not a great sign when you're bringing in Deonte Johnson, of all people, to, to save your receiving corps at this point in the season.
28:57
You also look at a Houston defense that, again, has been solid, but is also very turnover reliant. They're one of the highest turnover defenses in the NFL. Baltimore has only one multi-turnover game this season.
29:07
That came in that first match-up against Pittsburgh, where they had all those sloppy plays. So I, I don't see Baltimore committing enough mistakes necessarily to, to keep Houston in this game.
29:15
And the Texans running game has also been really hit or miss over these last seven or eight weeks. They've been held under 100 yards total in five of the last eight games.
29:23
Feels like it's totally feast or famine when it comes to Joe Mixon. Baltimore has one of the best run defenses in the NFL. So I, I think, I think the Ravens have too many ways to beat you.
29:32
I think they're gonna make Houston one-dimensional. I don't trust Houston to get to the 23, 24 points that I think it might take to cover that number.
29:39
You also have leans week 17 beyond the, uh, the Christmas Day games- Mm-hmm... and the Thursday Night Football game. You also have leans on the Commanders. You and I are simpatico on that. Uh, laying- Yep...
29:49
what is now four-ish against the Falcons. I can't believe it's that low against Michael Penix of the Falcons. Right. Uh, not, not your Packers, but you have a lean on the Packers. You're also leaning with the Dolphins.
29:59
Yep. You're leaning with the Rams and the Denver/Cincinnati over 49 and a half. Speak on whichever one of those you feel strongest about, if you would. Yeah, I, well, w- I'll just briefly on the Commanders.
30:09
You know, I'm, I'm swinging back and forth here, because I, I was all over Philly last week and, and you know as well as I do, Gil.
30:15
I know where your, you know, where your, your, uh, you know, sympathies lie with Washington. But my goodness, I, I have no idea how the Eagles ended up losing that game, even with Kenny Pickett coming in.
30:23
But I think we're getting a really good number here considering it's Michael Penix's first- Road start.
30:27
Thought Penix looked fine last week, but I, I don't, I just don't know how to judge, you know, a game against this version of the New York Giants where Drew Lock has not only given you two pick sixes, but also a sack fumble.
30:37
You know, I thought the defense really carried a lot of that for Atlanta last week, and y- you're not gonna be able to rely on that against Jayden Daniels and this Commanders team.
30:44
I think this could be a shootout, and if you're asking Michael Penix to go score, you know, 27, 28, 30-plus points on the road, I think that could be, that could be a tall task. So Washington would be one of my leans.
30:55
Looking at the over in that Denver-Cincinnati game, you know, I'm struggling to settle on a side here. I, I think at three and a half I, I would lean Denver, but I think we get points. No doubt about that.
31:04
We, we know about the liability that is the Cincinnati defense. You know, I think these last two weeks against Tennessee and Cleveland, it, you know, they, they've generated, what, nine total turnovers in those games?
31:13
But a, a lot of that is going up against Will Levis and DTR and, and Mason Rudolph. And, you know, this Denver defense has a significantly better reputation.
31:20
The numbers are, of course, much better than they are for Cincinnati. But they've quietly given up a lot of points, a lot of yards in recent weeks to some pretty questionable offenses.
31:28
You know, 34 last week to the Chargers, 32 in that crazy game against Cleveland. Certainly should have given up more to the Indianapolis Colts. You know, they struggled with the Raiders last month.
31:37
So I, I, I don't know that the Denver defense is playing quite at the same level that it was earlier in the season.
31:43
Obviously, this is a desperation spot for Cincinnati, and really somewhat of a desperation spot for Denver.
31:47
So I, I think both of these teams gotta go all out offensively, and we push that one well over the 49 and a half. Tomorrow, of course, uh, known to be a big NBA day. We have a quintuple header.
31:57
Gives us a chance to say the word quintuple for the rare time here- Yeah... on a Numbers Game. Quintuple header in the NBA.
32:03
Uh, Spurs at Knicks, T-Wolves at Mavs, Sixers at Celtics, a day after, uh, Joel Embiid got ejected for the second time in his career. Lakers at Warriors and Nuggets at Suns. What do you like best?
32:15
Yeah, I, I like the Mavs, uh, to, to take care of business at home against Minnesota. I think we're getting a good number. It was five yesterday, now seeing five and a half.
32:23
I, I just think Dallas is a significantly better team. You know, got a nice little tune-up game last night, uh, against Portland. They've been a really good team at home this season.
32:31
Minnesota have been a bit shaky on the road. Uh, you know, Minnesota has, has, you know, just dropped a few games in a row now. They lost to the Hawks last night, blew a big fourth quarter lead.
32:39
And i- really more than anything, this is a fade of Minnesota. It's a team that I've loved betting against this season. They really have two offensive options.
32:46
You know, you watch this team and they're, they're starting three non-threats every single night in Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and, and poor Mike Conley, who's playing way too many minutes at this stage in his career, but they need him to.
32:58
You know, maybe you get something out of Naz Reid off the bench. Dante DiVincenzo has just been terrible this season, and that's about it.
33:04
And, you know, it, it almost feels like this is [laughs] gonna be like a five on two type of game. So I... You know, Anthony Edwards' points prop is sitting at 24 and a half. I would take the over there.
33:12
He's gonna have to take a ton of shots if they wanna keep this game, you know, relatively close. But the Mavs are really deep.
33:17
They have so many options, and I, I think this is one where it's gonna be tough for Minnesota to keep up. The Timberwolves have not scored more than 108 points in a month. You know, that is crazy in the modern NBA.
33:26
And, and Dallas is one of those teams that's routinely pushing 120, 125. And you did say, real quick, you did, you do like the Lakers/Dubs under as well tomorrow? I do. I do.
33:36
Slightly into the Lakers on the side for me, but I like the under 230. Both these teams have been under teams on the year. The Lakers are 17 and 11 to the under. That's one of the biggest discrepancies in the NBA.
33:45
They are both bottom five offenses in the last 10 games. Neither team shooting the three-pointer well, especially LA. Nick, merry Christmas, man. Happy holidays. Thank you so much for making an appearance this morning.
33:57
Hey, anytime Gil. Thanks for having me. Nick Whalen, everybody, @Whalen. Substitute the number one for the L. He's got @Whalen on Twitter. We'll come back, seeing Nijaad, all his plays next on a Numbers Game.
34:14
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34:51
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. It's Gil Alexander, live from Circa Resort Casino in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada, on this, uh, Nevada, pardon me.
35:02
[laughs] I don't wanna get the Nevadans mad at me. Christmas Eve morning here at, uh, at, uh, Circa. We get tweets at Beat the Book. Always appreciate the feedback.
35:11
Now, see, I said this about the Christmas songs list coming up. It's my list, I don't care what you people say. But apparently, you peoples wanna say something.
35:18
And by you people, I mean you, the lovely listener, the greatest listeners who have ever been, uh, in any, uh, radio show ever.
35:23
Johnny Ringo, "If the great Nat King Cole doesn't make the list, Gil might be in jeopardy of falling off the top spot of host power rankings." [laughs] Okay. Nat King Cole, Johnny Ringo, not on the list.
35:36
I guess I've toppled from the, from the top. Larry Fresh. Hey, how you doing, Larry? Good to see you yesterday. "Merry Christmas, happy Hanukkah to you guys. Thank you for all the content through the year."
35:44
Thank you, Larry, for being so cool. And thank you again for the, uh, the Chipotle. Appreciate that. Israel Negron, "Are you really from the DMV, Gil, if Chuck Brown doesn't make your top Christmas song list?"
35:55
[laughs] Well, I am, and he didn't make it. If this was, like, you know, a best s- go-go swing kinda thing, he'd be number one, of course.
36:04
Ryan Hyatt, "First off, thanks to Gil and the entire VSiN crew for creating great radio/TV today. Much appreciated.
36:09
Second, Gil, if Christmas wrapping by The Waitresses," see, it never stops, "if Christmas wrapping by The Waitresses does not appear on your list, it is invalid and should be ignored.
36:18
You can expl- [laughs] you can explain who The Waitresses are." By the way, I do have a, uh, I have a honorable mention sidebar to the top 10 list, and The Waitresses are in the honorable mention. Does that count? No?
36:30
Doesn't? Okay. Waitresses make honorable mention. And Mark Geiger, "Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah.
36:35
May the new year be a happy, healthy, and prosperous one for you and all those who rely upon the sage advice given on this show." Thank you, Mark.
36:42
Mark, who is, uh, the de facto, uh, in-house attorney here on The Numbers Game after all these years. Sia Nejad is an attorney in real life as well. He also works for the Monumental Sports Network.
36:52
You can follow him on Twitter @sianejad, S-I-A N-E-J-A-D, comes to us courtesy of the Aggressive Guest Line, and he joins us now from the DMV. How you doing, man? I'm good.
37:02
I'm really curious about this list, though, Gil. Is Grandma Got Run Over By a Reindeer on the list? 'Cause if you're from the DMV, you know the local radio stations back in the day- Yeah...
37:11
they played that all day during Christmases. They love it. Uh, it is not on the list. It is not on the list. Shame. Yeah. Uh, top 10 plus three honorable mentions coming up.
37:20
And it is one of those things, right, where people are like, "Oh, your list is ridiculous. It sucks." And it's like, "Hey, it's my list, man." Yeah. Everybody's got their list. It's subjective. It's music.
37:28
Um, but my ears listen without prejudice, Sia. That's what I'm talking about. Mm-hmm. Uh, your picks this week in the National Football League, you have, uh, quite a few. I, I like week 17 lines.
37:40
This was different- Mm-hmm... from week 16 and week 15, where I thought it was slim pickings. It's been slim pickings for a few weeks. Let's start with tomorrow. We have the, uh, double header.
37:48
We'll get some Mariah Carey. We'll get some Beyonce tomorrow. We'll also get some football. You like the Ravens as well laying the five here, despite the fact that it's moved away from the best number. It has.
38:00
It, it opened... I mean, I was surprised it was at four yesterday, and I won't be surprised if it kicks up to six by kickoff, although I think five is probably the right number. So I've been a fade on Houston all year.
38:11
I mean, Gil, I came onto your show before the season started, and I told you the Indianapolis Colts were gonna win the AFC South.
38:16
So I obviously got that wrong, but, but the reality is Houston regressed and, and that was part of what I was factoring in. I thought Anthony Richardson would be an average quarterback.
38:24
Turns out this year he's not an average quarterback.
38:26
With all that said, you got the Texans, who have been very mediocre all year, and now you got them kind of locked into their playoff spot, but more importantly, Tank Dell out, out here. Yeah.
38:36
And I just think that's such a huge factor because of how he spread the field out for guys like Nico Collins.
38:41
Now you got Jon Metchie coming in, and he's okay, but he hasn't really shown himself from his college days yet. You got Xavier Hutchinson. You got Dalton Schultz. It's just not dynamic.
38:49
And when I use the word dynamic, I use it for the Baltimore Ravens. They can hit you any way they want, including last year when they played Houston in the playoffs, absolutely bludgeoning them with the running game.
38:59
But good news, Lamar Jackson can throw it. He can run it himself. He's got all kinds of healthy toys in Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, and the list goes on and on.
39:08
So I just think it's too much for a Baltimore Ravens team that's probably hungrier than the Houston Texans. Uh, before the Ravens take on the Texans at Houston, we have, uh, the Chiefs at the Steelers.
39:18
Remember, these are two early games tomorrow on Christmas. Mm-hmm. Um, you and I are oppo on this one. You like the Steelers plus the points here.
39:26
Yeah, but I say it with a touch less confidence than I did deliver the Baltimore Ravens play, and that's because I just don't feel comfortable fading Patrick Mahomes.
39:35
I don't feel comfortable fading him with Xavier Worthy getting kind of fully integrated into this offense, but Hollywood Brown also.
39:41
And, and I say Xavier Worthy 'cause he got a lot of targets last week, and I do think that might have been a, at least a little bit of the Hollywood Brown effect. Mahomes, not injured.
39:48
I get all that, but Pittsburgh had this gauntlet of three games. Yeah.
39:52
They're on their third leg of it, and I think this is the leg where you could actually see them win a game or at least cover because the other two on the road were really, like, problems, right?
40:00
Kansas City, not great at covering. We've seen them even at home against inferior teams not cover. Again, this is a... Both of these teams very hungry. Kansas City wants to win to lock up that one seed.
40:10
I just think Pittsburgh is, is closer to Kansas City than people think, and they're getting three points at home. If it was two and a half, it would be a stay away. At three, it's Pittsburgh.
40:20
So great this week 'cause there's football seemingly every day, at least, uh, when you put NFL and college together. There are the two NFL games tomorrow.
40:28
There is one on Thursday between the Bears and the Seahawks, and then we have a triple header on Saturday. Love some Saturday NFL, and the first of which is the Chargers at the Patriots.
40:38
You like the home dog Patriots here plus the points. So one of the teams that's clearly not giving up this season is the Patriots, and by the way, they, the give up narrative isn't really a good one, right?
40:48
'Cause the guys on the field are definitely trying to play as hard as they can. But this Patriots team seems motivated week to week, and they've got a quarterback in Drake May.
40:56
I look at the Chargers, and I know they have everything to play for, but teams like the Chargers and the Broncos, I just don't think they're very good, and I don't think it's justified that they're going on the road, uh, laying four points here.
41:06
I mean, the Chargers don't have a lot to throw at you. Even when JK Dobbins was healthy, it wasn't a super efficient running game, but it's certainly not efficient now.
41:13
Their receivers, it's Lad McConkie when he's healthy, and it's kind of everybody else. I just think the Patriots are playing good football. I'm not chasing last week's result necessarily, although that was impressive.
41:23
It also was a division game. Patriots probably more up for that game than, than, than this one in theory, but I think four is way too many. I don't think the Chargers are super explosive.
41:32
I think they, they're somewhat vulnerable on defense, and I like how Drake May is playing, so give me the four points. All right. Let's talk a little, uh, futures, shall we?
41:39
And by futures, I mean maybe just two weeks of futures. Yeah.
41:43
Let's start in the NFC South, where the Falcons, by virtue of their win over the Giants this past weekend and the Bucs loss to the Cowboys, the Falcons now in the, uh, proverbial driver's seat, meaning they control their own destiny with Michael Penix as their starting quarterback.
41:56
The two teams are tied, but the Falcons swept the Bucs. Mm. So the Buccaneers gonna need some help here. But when it looks at, when you look at the schedule here- Yeah...
42:04
the Bucs still, I mean, my goodness, they got a home game against the Panthers here, where they're eight and a half or nine-point favorites right now. Then they're home against that Saints outfit we saw last night.
42:14
I'm sure the Saints will get some players back, but who knows how many or if the Saints just punt on it. You like the Bucs still to win this division.
42:23
So the beauty of this is the Bucs loss gave us some value in the betting market. 'Cause if you wanted to bet the Bucs three weeks ago, it was -110, good for you, you got a good number.
42:30
But the last two weeks, the number was prohibitive, 'cause everybody thought the Bucs were definitely going to win that division.
42:36
Now they're -135 to win the NFC South, and you laid it out perfectly, Gil, like you usually do.
42:41
The, the Bucs got two layups, and I understand they just lost to Dallas, but these two layups are at home, if memory serves, and these are two teams that they're going to beat. Then you look at the Falcons.
42:49
Washington is -200 against the Falcons, and the Bucs are -135 to win the NFC South.
42:54
I'm just doing some math here, a- and I think that -135 number is really kinda great when you consider that Washington probably, I don't know if they cover or not, they probably dispatch Michael Penix and the Falcons on Sunday night in Washington.
43:08
And if that happens, guess what? That -135 pays. Yes, it do. Yes, it do. All right, uh, before we go here, let- let's get to, uh, some just random futures, and I'll leave it open-ended for you.
43:19
Is there a Siya Najad sort of outlying one that most people, is, is, does not apply to conventional wisdom that you like? Yeah, a few weeks ago, uh, and, you know, the number's gone a little bit.
43:28
I like the Packers to win the NFC. I think the NFC is absolutely wide open, not just for the Packers, but for Washington, for Rams, teams that people just don't think have much of an impact.
43:38
AFC, I think it really comes down to three teams, the three obvious ones. NFC, it's wide open.
43:42
So I just think the Green Bay Packers, even now at +600, I think it's a decent number because, I mean, compared to 1100, it's not great, but I think it's a decent number because of how much the Lions have fallen back with their injuries.
43:52
Philadelphia, kind of a hot and cold team, as we see year to year. I think the Packers might actually be the best team in the NFC and we're just not talking about it.
44:00
That's, you know, 'cause I asked this question earlier on the show and I laid it out just like you did, which is you got, you got the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens in the AFC. Yep.
44:07
And I said, "Okay, you have the Lions, the Eagles, and the Vikings in whatever order in the NFC. Do you add the Packers?" And I said, "Yes, I probably do."
44:15
You're saying that resoundingly, 'cause you like to bet on them, but you actually think it extends further. You really legitimately think the Rams or the, or the Commanders could win this? I think they could.
44:25
And, and I say that because the NFC is not top-heavy like the AFC is. If the, if the Commanders and Rams were in the AFC, it's a no-go.
44:31
But a- again, the Lions, very vulnerable, the Eagles, in my opinion, very vulnerable. So it's anybody's game. [laughs] If the Commodores got to the Super Bowl, my head might explode off my body. Me too.
44:41
It'd be unbelievable. You too, I know you would. Siya, merry Christmas, man. Happy holidays. Appreciate it. Thank you. Die Hard is not a Christmas movie. [laughs] Had to get that in. It is not.
44:52
I firmly believe it is not. Thank you, Siya. Will Hill with all his bets next.
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