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Dec 24, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 24, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | December 24, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:56
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:35
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Every taking us in, I appreciate it.
0:44
Uh, each and every day, Kelly and I appreciate, uh, you making us part of your morning. We never take that for granted. Uh, happy holidays to you and yours, no matter what you're celebrating.
0:52
In the rare Christmas-Hanukkah falling on the same day, Kenny Ella, if you had that, it cashes big for you. Cashes bigly. That rarely ha- happens. I don't remember Hanukkah going into January ever in my life.
1:05
I'm sure it happened once or twice, but, uh, it's the rare Christmas-Hanukkah double. So, uh, happy holidays to you and yours. Uh, may it be a prosperous one, as they say. Uh, we will have our top 10 Christmas songs.
1:17
We will do this before the show ends, I promise you, with honorable mentions as well. Top 10 Christmas jams of all time, uh, coming up on the show.
1:24
Bill Connelly, uh, who does college football analytics for ESPN, we will get his thoughts on what his numbers say ought to be the national champion, or at least who the, uh, the favorite is among all his thoughts on the, uh, the quarterfinals, obviously, which are coming up on New Year's Eve day and New Year's Day itself.
1:42
We'll all be here on a Numbers Game as well to talk about those. Uh, before we get to Will Hill, we get tweets of Beating the Book. Del MindtheGap Radio, uh, off the beaten path, he says, "The Future Heads.
1:52
Christmas was better in the '80s." I'm unfamiliar with that one, by the way. Kevin Ryan: "Gil, thanks yet again for another fantastic year of ANG.
1:59
I only missed a handful of shows, and those were ones where you were on vacation.
2:02
Nothing against the guest host, but the words, uh, 'If I came to you from the future' and 'matriculate' were never s- [laughs] were never spoken.
2:09
Yes, but remember when I, uh, left and Ben Wilson started with the Iga Świątek hate that one day?" Oh, that was the incident. That was... We, we know that as the incident. That and Emerson.
2:19
Uh, Primetime, cowboys_cubs1, "Yo. Hey, man." Yo, hey, man. F- happy Vestivus. "I got a lot of problems with you people, Kelly included. [laughs] Let's start with that list." Thank you, Primetime.
2:30
I'm not gonna read the rest of it. Jason McKinney, 'cause, you know, it telegraphs the past. Jason McKinney: "The responses to your top 10 list is why I've decided not to bet the awards market anymore.
2:39
Still on tilt from, uh, Jackson Merrill and Ashton Jeanty bets not cashing. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah." Ashton Jeanty, the closest Heisman vote since 2009. We couldn't quite get there.
2:52
John Fitzgibbons: "Merry Christmas. Happy holidays, everyone. Gilly, Kelly, thank you for another great ANG year filled with great information and analysis and laughs.
2:59
All the best to you and your families this holiday season." To you as well, John. And Sam Ginsberg from Pittsburgh, PA says, "Your list, your Christmas list obviously carries a great deal of gravitas.
3:09
Who knew a Jewish guy with a Christmas song list could upset more people than he could by discussing a bet on the election?" [laughs] It's very true. People are very angry about the Christmas list.
3:18
Uh, Anthony, uh, Trotolo, "Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas. I hope Sinatra made the list." Uh, I don't know if he did.
3:24
Chance Copperpot, "Every year I, I at you with Santa Claus Go Straight to the Ghetto as my favorite Christmas song, and it's still not on your list.
3:32
I'll do it again next year to Gil," uh, Snoop Dogg, Santa Claus Go Straight to the Ghetto. Yeah, that did not make my list as well. There is some movement on the list from year to year.
3:40
It's not a tremendous amount of movement, but there is some movement. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is celebrating the holiday as well from his, uh, spot up there in Connecticut.
3:48
It's the great Will Hill, the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast. You can follow him on Twitter at NotTheWillHill, and he will be joining me after this show.
3:55
Man, he's doing double duty, uh, 'cause we're doing the Megapod, early Christmas week Megapod with Matt Brown, Will Hill, Todd Wischnew, and myself. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
4:05
How you doing, Will? Gilly, what's going on? Uh, hap- happy holidays. Happy Hanukkah. I'm a... Look, a- as you know, I'm a huge, a Numbers Game fan, not just a, a part of the show, which I'm, I'm grateful for.
4:15
I'm not familiar with this, the incident. What, what was the incident? You said E- Emerson or Everson? Was it, is it Patrick Evan- wh- what happened? No, no, no.
4:21
[laughs] The incident that we were talking about this morning. What did I say the incident was today? I already forgot what- You said something with Emerson. I didn't- Oh, no, I don't know... I must have missed that one.
4:29
Uh, yeah, I don't know what I said there. Um, thanks for- Okay... thanks for asking though, Will. I appreciate it. Thanks for, uh, you know, doubling down on that. Um, let me ask you a question.
4:37
What do, what are you doing for the holidays? You and the family do something special? You have 17 children, I believe it is, so you must be doing something special.
4:43
Yes, and the best thing about children is it's an excuse to go nowhere. "Hey, can't go anywhere. We have the kids." So it's, uh, just, we, we, uh, we stay home, cook, eat, watch the games, and it's, uh, it- it's nice.
4:54
A- as people say, it does, uh, does go by quickly as you start to look back at past years, like, man, that was five years ago. That was four years ago. As you know, uh, I have, uh, an issue with things just flying by.
5:02
I think you've made this point. Ever since COVID, man, time just, uh, time just kind of flies by, and time gets kind of, uh, mushed together. But yeah, I'll be home cooking, eating, watching the game, so, uh, e- excited.
5:11
Very light sports day today. My goodness. That, uh- Ooh... that South Florida- Ooh... San Jose State game is gonna have through-the-roof handle today.
5:19
[laughs] It will have through-the-roof handle, and you have a play on this as well, yes? Yeah, I like the points. I like South Florida getting the three here. I've watched, watched San Jose State quite a g- quite a bit.
5:30
Uh, and this is what's, w- what kind of stinks about bowl season now. Nick Nash is just an incredible receiver for San Jose State, so much fun to watch. I guess this'll be like a second, third-round pick in the NFL.
5:39
I actually think he'll be a steal at that draft slot. Problem is he's not gonna play tonight, so if you're, you know, just like an NFL fan, "Hey, I don't wa- I don't watch much college.
5:46
I wanna throw the game on and see this kid Nash," well, too bad. You're not gonna see him.
5:49
And I think not only, like, the production on the field, but he just commands so much attention, double teams, you know, shade the safeties over, that kind of thing, where him not on the field, I just think their offense is gonna look a lot different.
6:00
Uh, they're not very good defensively. The threes are valuable in college football.
6:04
We had talked about this Uh, every bowl season and every NFL preseason, these low lines, one and a half, two and a half, three, where you think, "Ah, the line, the game's not gonna land on, like, one or two."
6:14
If you're down seven late, a lot of these teams, it didn't happen yesterday, which was interesting, in, in overtime, uh, but when you're down seven late and you score a touchdown and it's the whatever, what is this, the Hawaii Bowl, a lot of teams are just gonna go for two, and the game's gonna land on one either way, or if there's enough time for a field goal on the other end, it's gonna land on two.
6:29
So getting these low lines, uh, it can be valuable taking the points, and if you just think, "Hey, I'll lay the one, one and a half, two, two and a half," not gonna land on one or two, you're probably better off just taking the money line.
6:39
But I do like the, uh, the South Florida Bulls to, like, get in the three. Uh, we are oppo on that one, sir, but that, that wouldn't be the first- Ooh...
6:46
that wouldn't be the first time, because yesterday, by the way, I don't know how many people watched this bowl game, the Northern Illinois- Much...
6:51
uh, Fresno game yesterday, which [laughs] we, 'cause we're on this again, Will and I are on with, uh, Wishnev, Fezzik, and Feliko on a, uh, on a group text, and we probably, between the five of us, seemed like we had, like, 50 bets and nobody knew what anybody else was on in this game.
7:06
Yeah. But it was just, I mean, the, the ultimate Plinko of college football bowl games with Northern Illinois somehow- Yes... winning in overtime by eight. Classic.
7:14
But you, you made a great bet in there which I wanna, you know, pinpoint for people, 'cause we usually talk about this stuff on the Megapod, maybe not so often here on The Numbers Game, which is
7:23
Fresno's kicker had already displayed that he was not good at kicking a football- No... through two goalposts.
7:29
And Fresno was about to kick a chip shot field goal to try to win this game late, and you were like, "Hey, I'll take a flyer on, uh, Northern Illinois." W- what number did you get at that moment? Well, 600.
7:39
It was, yeah, I mean, I, I'm looking at it and look, uh, who was... Oh, it was Fresno State. Yeah, they're lining up for a, look, a, a makeable kick, but like you pointed out, they weren't making their kicks.
7:49
So this idea that a college kicker is just an automatic from, you know, uh, high 30s, low 40s is just not the case. It's not the NFL where, uh, you know, he's just gonna bang that through 80, 90% of the time plus.
8:01
Um, and, uh, a- and these live lines are just not always accurate, so that was one that, uh, that got home fortunately. But yeah, the, these Live Lines are interesting late in the game.
8:09
And I, I noticed this something, uh, I was gonna bring this up on the Megapod. I'll bring it up now.
8:13
I think it was Seattle, Minnesota, it was the first quarter, because these Live Lines, you just, I can never quite understand, like, the, the movement and the pricing.
8:20
I'm sure there's reason behind it, but Seattle was punting from their own fir- uh, their own 40, first quarter. Uh, the live line seven and a half.
8:27
The punt gets down to, like, the 15, and then it moves to six and a half. Like, where were you expecting the punt? How is a- [laughs]... what's a halfway decent punt worth a point?
8:35
I know that sometimes in baseball, too, where it'll be like bases loaded, two out, high leverage situation, and the count goes to one and oh, and the line'll go from, like, minus 200 to minus 235.
8:44
Like, how is a ball worth 35 cents? So I, uh, I just think it's fascinating sometimes watching these play-by-play and just watching the corresponding line movement. I respect your game, Will.
8:52
17 kids, and yet you're vigilant with the lines at all moments in every game. I respect that tremendously. But I, I think that, that point, the one about making the six to one bet, is such a good one.
9:03
There are so many little opportunities. Now, that one happened to work out. Sometimes they don't. But, uh, and by the way, I only got a plus 350 at that very same time, so good on you for getting a six to one.
9:12
Um, but those, those opportunities exist. You know, i- if you're, obviously, if you have a, you know, if you're doing other things in life, you're not gonna be there at all times to be- Right... on top of that.
9:22
But in this one, it was just a standalone d- standalone day, you know, random- Monday afternoon... yeah, Monday afternoon football game. It was awesome to, uh, cash in on that.
9:31
Speaking of random games, so obviously everybody's focused on the college football, uh, playoff. We do have bowl games beyond today, obviously, as well, and, and it gets really, you know, sort of mayhemy this weekend.
9:42
Tons of games, tons of bowl games Friday, tons on Saturday. Uh, Vanderbilt plays on Friday. You have the under in the Vanderbilt game?
9:50
Yeah, this has always been, not quite March Madness level, but one of my favorite times of the year, the bowl season. Always, like, e- even back in, you know, high school, college, you're off from school.
9:57
You could just kind of veg out and watch football all day, all night. Great time of the year. It's awesome. And it's hurt a little bit by the playoff with these opt-outs and all, all that.
10:04
It's, it's been cannibalized a little bit. But yeah, I do like the under 51 and a half. I just think Georgia Tech, really good defensively. They played a pretty tough schedule.
10:11
These are two teams I was kind of looking to play on coming into bowl season, because I think they'll both be highly motivated. But, uh, V- Vandy's good as an under.
10:18
They're good, they're good as an under team, and they're a good underdog. So they move the clock. They can't really throw the ball.
10:23
Diego Pavia is, uh, you know, i- is going for the, um, what, what's the movie about the guy who goes to college for, like, 20 years? I mean- [laughs]... he, he's gonna be in college for a long time.
10:32
He's been in college for a long time. But they can't throw. They run the ball. So I, to me, this is an ugly, low-scoring... I'm shocked it's as high as it is at 51 and a half.
10:39
I think this is, like, a, you know, a 23, 20 type of game. I do like the under 51 and a half quite a bit.
10:44
And in the, uh, last North Carolina game, I'll call it Belichick BC, uh, North Carolina and UConn in the Fenway Bowl on Saturday. You have a thought on this.
10:54
Yeah, I like UNC, and I think the fact that Belichick is overseeing things kinda has everyone on their Ps and Qs here. Their, uh, the opt-outs have not been that bad for UNC.
11:01
I know the big-time running back's not gonna play, but other than that, they haven't been completely destroyed by the portal. I think coming into this game and say, "Hey, UConn's a lot more motivated.
11:09
It means more to them. To win a bowl game would mean everything," kind of their Super Bowl, doesn't really matter to UNC. But UNC, it seems like it's gonna matter.
11:16
And look, living here in Connecticut, uh, UConn, their football program, they just don't recruit the same kind of guys UNC has. To me, these are two teams on different levels. I think the three is a little cheap here.
11:26
I know we're running up against the break, but I, I'm curious what you think. I don't know if you and I have talked about this either on air or off air. Do you, uh, do you think it's gonna work with Belichick, UNC?
11:34
What, what do you think this is gonna look like? I think it is a complete coin flip- Yeah... where it could work spectacularly well, or we could know very quickly, oh, boy, these, these kids aren't responding in a way.
11:46
And, and I don't know if that's an age gap. I don't know if it's the fact that he's just new to college football. But in theory, because recruiting- Right...
11:52
and the transfer portal is more like free agency, um, it should have some portent of good things to come, I guess. I agree. I don't know. And the last thing, I, I'm not betting against Michael Lombardi in a bowl game.
12:05
Not gonna happen. [laughs] Not gonna do that. Uh, more with Will Hill on the other side. Let's talk some NFL coming up on The Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
12:15
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment of a numbers game is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches.
12:31
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12:54
Back at Circa on a numbers game, it's Gil Alexander flying solo today. Kelly on vacation. Kelly enjoying, uh, holiday time with the family in, uh, Florida. We, uh, hope he's doing okay.
13:04
Uh, we get tweets at bettingthebook. Doesn't matter that it's Christmas Eve morning, and it don't stop with the tweets. Appreciate it very much.
13:10
David Lippe, I hope I'm pronouncing that all right, said, "Please give Alone at Christmas with Phoenix and Bill Murray a listen. Bill freakin' Murray," he says. Jason H11. Oh, don't start this, Jason.
13:22
I know Sia said it on the way out. He says, "Gilly, Die Hard takes place during a Christmas party. Sorry, Christmas movie.
13:29
That Christmas song list better have Frank Dino and Nat King Cole, or you got some explaining to do."
13:34
[laughs] First of all, I'm not gonna get into the Die Hard thing, but when you watch Die Hard for the first time, just want you to do a little truth serum.
13:41
When you watched it for the first time, some of us watched in the theater when it, when it came out, we're that old. Did you for any one second of it think it was a Christmas movie? Stop with that.
13:52
Can't stand that debate. Uh, this is from, uh, 3JackH3131. Says, "Happy Hanukkah to you and merry Christmas to all.
13:58
If Baby It's Cold Outside is [laughs] on your top 10 Christmas list, then the whole list is meshugganah." Well, I do have a, a brief honorable mention list, and a version of Baby I'm Cold Outside got on there.
14:11
It almost made the top 10, this version of it, so I think we're still friends, 3Jack. I think, I think we're still okay. Manny Davison, "Happy holidays to you and yours.
14:18
I gifted myself a Capitals, a Washington Capitals to win the Cup ticket today. 25 to 1 on a team who is certainly making the playoffs and may end up winning the Metro. Too good to pass up."
14:29
He says, "Kelly, easy on the eggnog tonight as well." Let's go Caps. Let's rock the red. You know, here's the thing with, uh, those of us who grew up on the Caps. Uh, 44 years it took to win a Stanley Cup.
14:40
If they go another 44 and they don't win it, uh, we're kinda good. We got our Cup. That's kinda how I feel about it. Um, all right.
14:47
Will Hill kind enough to join us for a second segment, or from his, uh, place in Connecticut. Appreciate it. Courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:54
Um, let's go to the NFL, Will, where we have, uh, Christmas games, we have, uh, the day after Christmas, of course, then into Saturday. And, uh, you have, uh, you have a bunch of plays, uh, in the NFL as well.
15:06
Let me start, 'cause I wanna get to, before we, before we get to any of that, you were kind enough to have me on the Shoulda Bet More podcast, your podcast. Uh, we're all podcaster available, everybody.
15:14
And, uh, to me, the biggest, you know what I remember the most from, from my appearance was, you and I probably went three minutes on what should the Vikings do- Yeah...
15:24
after this Sam Darnold season, you know, having J.J. McCarthy in the wings, having Daniel Jones, for goodness sake, in the wings as well.
15:32
And we went three minutes and, and the question was a sports talk radio question of, well, like what do they do? And neither of us had a, had an answer. Is your answer any more solidified today than it was then?
15:42
No, and I think, you know, I was thinking about that after and listening back. I think a lot of your answer is gonna come down to what is your evaluation, what is your opinion on J.J. McCarthy?
15:52
If you're of the belief, hey, he's gonna be one of these guys, he can even be a B+ starter in the NFL. And look, he's gotta be healthy too, which complicates it. He had, like, a second knee surgery.
16:01
Who knows when he's gonna be, you know, back and healthy and things like that. It's...
16:04
Man, but if you think he's gonna be a B, B+ starter, even like Bo Nix level, you have Jefferson, Addison, this really good team, and what's made this team good is you have a free quarterback, basically.
16:15
Darnold was off the scrap heap. And where they got into trouble five, six years ago, they had the same sorta situation, then they gave the, the, the big contract to Cousins.
16:23
It took, it picked away little piece here, little piece there from the rest of the team, and they just never had any success. So do you have the gall to let Darnold walk out the building?
16:32
You, you finally have one of these guys, which is the flip side of this. Hey, it's hard to find these guys. Don't get cute once you find one.
16:37
He's young enough, he's played well enough, give him his three or four years a- and move on, and just try to build your team around him. It's really tough.
16:45
I think maybe the cop-out answer is you franchise tag him and you just kick this down the road for one more year, but again, the rookie contracts don't last forever.
16:52
You pick McCarthy, you like them enough to pick him, what, 10th? You traded up a spot or two to pick him. It, it, it's a long-winded answer of s- of, of saying I, I don't know. I really don't know. Yeah.
17:01
It's an impossible spot. It, it, it's a good problem to have, but it's still a problem to have. It is an impossible spot. I, I don't know what, I don't know what I would do, but I think I know what they're gonna...
17:10
I think they're gonna get rid of Darnold. I really do. Like, I just think- Oof... it, which is an incredible thing to say, but I have a feeling that's what they're gonna do.
17:18
Well, the bidding forum's gonna be, you know, uh, there, there's gonna be a robust market for him. I mean, teams need quarterbacks, the Jets, the Giants. Yeah. Not that the Jets would go down that road again.
17:27
Uh, the Raiders, I mean, it's not a good quarterback class in terms of the draft, at least we think going in. And there's just, uh, you know, the Titans need a quarterback.
17:35
You can list six, eight teams that need a quarterback. He's played... Boy, he, he's not in the MVP conversation. He's probably gonna get votes though.
17:42
I mean, you're talking about a guy, he's two wins away from leading them to, like, a 15, not, not like a 15 and 2, a 15 and 2 season in a one seed, and it's been a lot of him.
17:49
He's right up at the top for passing yards, passing touchdowns. If he finishes, like, third or fourth in MVP, that, that's not crazy, and then you're just gonna say, "All right. Thanks for this, the season.
17:57
We're just gonna move on and we're gonna play McCarthy." It's a really tough spot. And, and good for him, by the way, Darnold, because remember that- I agree... the bowl game against U- against, um, uh- Penn State...
18:06
Penn State, he was so good in that game. Yep. And then, and he goes into the NFL diaspora. And what a testament to Kevin O'Connell.
18:13
Maybe, I mean, that's, that's all Kevin O'Connell needs to do for his, uh, coach of the year resume, is be like, "Look. Look what I did with this guy."
18:19
Um, and so- Do you think that spawns another, uh, an off-season or two of... teams looking for the next Darnold, "Hey, let me try to, let me try to fix somebody else's bust," or is this just a one-off?
18:30
Um, oh, I'm sure teams are thinking that. Yeah. But do they have the right person to make that happen? I don't think Kevin- Probably not... Kevin O'Connell isn't duplicated in so many spots, so, um- Right.
18:40
And plus the supporting cast. I mean, Jefferson Addison gets overlooked 'cause Jefferson's so good. Right. But man, they're both, they're, they're both outstanding.
18:45
Two, two wins away from a one seed, four wins away from a Super Bowl. Not that I'm counting. Jordan Addison from the DMV as well. Shout out to the DMV- Yes... once again.
18:53
Uh, okay, speaking of the NFL then, how dare you come on this show and fade- Yeah... the Commodores? But that's what you're doing.
19:01
Yeah, I mean, I'm just doing your exercise of you look at the lines and you just have in your head or on a piece of paper what you think the line should be. Atlanta's getting four. They were getting five.
19:10
We're, we're saying Washington's that much better than Atlanta? To me, okay, maybe they're a smidge better, but I, I like- Yes, we are. Yes, we are... Yeah, I mean, look, Penix played really well the other day.
19:18
He had some drops. His stats could've been better. I think any time you can move on from Cousins, your team just automatically [laughs] seems to improve, uh, which has been proven.
19:26
Uh, Atlanta f- look, two wins away from winning a division. They now control their own destiny. They got a gift from Dallas the other night. Uh, to me, this is like a field goal game.
19:33
I'm surprised this is above a field goal. I thought maybe a point and a half for home field, maybe a, a, a point and a half better. It puts you at, like, three. You're getting four here. I think that's a lot.
19:41
I'll, I'll take Atlanta here plus the point. You're a horrible human being. Okay. But that's a different, that's a different story. You can win. We can both win. We can both win. We can win by three. That's right. Yeah.
19:48
Uh, we can both win. Uh, well, not by three. Well, I laid the four. Back when we talked- Oh, you did? Yeah. Oh, okay. I, I sure did, yeah.
19:54
Uh, okay, and then the Cardinals, uh, who have been eliminated, they're taking on the Rams, who right now are in the number one spot in the NFC West. You like the Cardinals plus the points here. Yeah, same thing.
20:06
I'm getting six. I was shocked to see a six. I know Arizona's done, and the Rams are playing for division, but I mean, how much is that motivation worth the line? We've seen it time and again.
20:15
Was the Lions on Sunday Night Football a couple years ago when they were out of it? They beat Green Bay. Uh, there, there was a C- that Colts-Jaguar's game, like, three years ago. Jaguars, did I say that properly?
20:24
I don't wanna get in trouble here. Um, the Colts-Jaguar's game that set up the crazy tie scenario where the Jags had nothing to play for. Like, these teams play hard with nothing to play for.
20:31
Sometimes it, it helps them where, hey, no, no pressure, fast and loose, fake a punt, you know, do whatever. Just be, be fast and loose with your play calling. Or I, I just can't get to six here.
20:40
I mean, uh, it s- similar to Washington and, uh, and Atlanta, where, okay, maybe the Rams are a smidge better, maybe m- some- a little something for home field, not much. We're getting a six.
20:48
I just, I, I can't quite get there. I'll take the points here with Arizona.
20:51
I think that's a candidate for the, uh, the Megapod, uh, answer to the question of, uh, what game do you want no part of for me, Cardinals and Rams. But six, I, I understand the, the thought though.
21:00
That's a lot of points, for sure. It's a lot. Uh, before we go here, let's talk about something else we talked about on your podcast.
21:06
Again, the Should'a Been More podcast, which Will hosts, which is you, you, me, and Falica, we, y- we brought this up, or you brought this up s- a couple months ago, three months ago, whatever.
21:16
It was like, okay, what will Ohtani open as MVP in the NL this coming season, the 2025 season? I said it would be minus money. Uh, you nailed it. I said minus 200, I believe. You nailed it, plus 200.
21:30
Two to one, uh, is where Ohtani is, and your question to me the other night was, this, you know, again, Will the guy who, again, gave us Aaron Judge at 16 to 1 for AL MVP in the middle of May this past year on the show.
21:43
You asked me, uh, you know, "Is that a bet at plus 200?" And my answer was, "Absolutely." Like, what, what is, w- what would have to happen for him not to win this? You are making that bet? I am.
21:55
Unless you wanna make the case, hey, voter fatigue, he gets hurt. I mean, w- what, how is he not going to win this award?
22:00
And even though I thought it would open at plus 200 'cause we just don't see a minus number for guys to win season-long awards, uh, as, as your buddy Chris Andrews likes to say, I like your number better.
22:09
I think he should be minus [laughs] 200. He hit 50 homers, stole 50 bases. Now you're gonna put him back on the mound as, like, an ace. Uh, okay, let's say the offense dips and he hits 34 homers.
22:19
He has a really bad year, ba- bad in quotes, bad year, and he hits 34 homers, and he pitches to, like, a, a 3.3, 3.4 ERA. He's still, like, [laughs] gonna get every single first place vote. That's still a runaway MVP.
22:31
Plus 200, I know people don't wanna tie up their money. Hell, we just gave out the awards for last year, but, you know, if you could bet it on Predator or something, and I haven't shopped.
22:37
That was the only book I saw at plus 200, but to me, anything plus money, especially two to one, I think you just put it in your account and you kinda stash it. I think it's a good bet.
22:45
All right, Will, talk to you in an hour for the Megapod, sir. All right, see you guys. Thanks for having me. I didn't get your kids any presents. Sorry about that. It's two years in a row now.
22:53
[laughs] Stop having so many kids. Maybe we can negotiate. Thank you, Will. Will Hill, everybody. At, not the Will Hill. That's two E's on the The.
23:02
Bill Connelly from ESPN, the, uh, founder of SP+ College Football Analytic on the other side to talk some college football playoff with us. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:15
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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24:00
We appreciate it, uh, Gil Alexander, all the tweets @BeatingTheBook.
24:03
Buddhist Man, "Speaking of nonsense in-game prices, watching the game Sunday with my buddy, and after Jalen Hurts was declared out and the Eagles had taken a 21 to seven lead, we tried to price the Skins' money line against Kenny Pickett.
24:15
We came up with around four to one. DraftKings had plus 650. Very quickly, so did we," as he bet it right at that moment. Uh, Colin Murphy talking about the Christmas list coming up.
24:25
He c- he says, uh, "Check out DMX rapping Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer. Pure gold. You won't regret it." DMX did not make the top 10. I'm sorry.
24:33
Jimmy Lopez, "DraftKings has 15 to one odds- That on your Christmas list is Christmas in Hollis by Run DMC. That did not make it as well. Jimmy Lopez did not cash.
24:43
Bill Walsh, not that Bill Walsh, but a different Bill Walsh, "Nothing embodies the Christmas spirit [laughs] more than threatening those who don't like the same holiday songs you do over social media. You do you, Gil.
24:54
I won't judge you for listening to the Chipmunks and AC/DC's Mistress for Christmas on loop this holiday season." Uh, no, please don't judge me for that.
25:01
And Larry Fresh, "When I heard, uh, Will Hill faded the skins but said we could both win, I immediately heard Todd Wisniewski's voice saying, 'Wait a minute, I'm hearing something,' and coming up with a scenario where you both lose."
25:11
Uh, yeah, that's [laughs]... He would absolutely have done that.
25:14
Uh, we will get to the Christmas songs coming up, but first it is our pleasure, because this is around the time we always have him on, and he's kind enough to come on short notice here this week.
25:22
Uh, he is a pioneer in college football analytics. He is the, uh, the author, if you will, of, uh, something called SP+.
25:29
It's a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency which he conceived back in the day in 2008 when he used to, uh, hang with our buddy Aaron Schatz over there at Football Outsiders.
25:40
Now, of course, he, uh, does his stuff at ESPN. He has done so for, for many, many years. And SP+, by the way, uh, intended to be predictive and forward-facing.
25:49
It's our friend Bill Connelly, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at ESPN_BillC. How you doing, Bill? Happy holidays. Happy holidays to you. I'm doing well.
26:01
I hope I did SP+ justice with that intro. Yeah. It's, it's really kind of hard to describe it in under, like, six minutes, so I think- [laughs]... you did a pretty good job there. All right.
26:10
Now, l- let's just get to, before we move on to the, uh, the quarterfinals and to winning the whole thing in college football, uh, let's just talk- Mm-hmm... about the first round for a second.
26:19
I'm assuming, you know what they say about assuming, but I'm gonna guess that your, your numbers couldn't have possibly reflected the nature of the- [laughs]... the quadruple blowouts we had.
26:30
Yeah, no, I, I, I apply, I think, a two and a half point home field advantage, not a 20-point home field advantage, therefore, uh, the numbers were a little bit off there. I mean, Texas-Clemson was close, obviously.
26:40
And honestly, Notre Dame-Indiana ended up close, thanks to a couple garbage time touchdowns. But no, it, obviously, the books, SP+, everything else saw at least three competitive games and, and we got zero.
26:53
So, you know- Yeah... it is what it is sometimes. Let me, let me ask you a non-quantitative question but a qualitative one. Did you like that it was played on home fields?
27:01
Would you like to have seen that in this coming week as well? Uh, the thought of Penn State playing on the Boise Blue field- Yes... uh, sounds spectacular. Um- I agree...
27:11
that, and I think that's the, that was the main thing I think a lot of people took away from the first round. Like, yeah, there, there were mismatches, and college football has a lot of mismatches.
27:18
And, and it happens, uh, uh, you know, that we get a round like that sometimes. But the home field part was great. South Bend on Friday night was great. Penn State openly impacted Kevin Jennings and- Absolutely...
27:30
and SMU. Whoo. Uh, it, it was just this, like, this new substance that we discovered. Playoff home field advantage was something different.
27:37
And yeah, like, rounding that into this coming week where you got Penn State at Boise State, pit Texas at Arizona State.
27:44
I, first of all, you know, this idea we're, we're already weighing whether the byes are worth it or the, you know, the conference title byes and whatnot, and should Boise State have gotten the three seat, all that.
27:52
But I think th- that would make it a lot more interesting if we not only guarantee four conference champions byes but home games. That'd be pretty fun. And, and we'd get a lot of match-ups like Penn State, Boise State.
28:03
I think it would've been fun a lot. Yeah. Poor, poor Kevin Jennings. By the way, he so wants a mulligan on that. [laughs] That was just awful to watch. Mm-hmm. Uh, okay. Yeah.
28:12
Then who were the biggest movers among the teams that played and that have advanced here? Who were the biggest move... Who was the biggest mover of them all? I, I would imagine Ohio State, I'm guessing.
28:23
Well, Ohio State was already at number one, so they d- they, they gained. Their rating went up in SP+, but only by, like, I think just under a point, if I remember right. Oh, okay.
28:31
The, the losers dropped more than the winners rose, which was kind of interesting. But I guess it really does have to do with the fact that they were already near the top.
28:38
Um, yeah, I think basically all f- all, all the winners ended up rising by kind of half point to a point. Texas ended up basically, basically breaking even.
28:47
Um, so that was kind of, you know, it, it judged the losers more harshly than, than, uh, than it, you know, said anything good about the winners, apparently.
28:55
So who is, of the eight teams remaining then, wha- what do your numbers indicate is the, uh, the short shot, if you will? Like, if you were having your own betting market based on your numbers exclusively- Yeah...
29:05
who's at the top of this list, which a lot of people still feel is pretty much wide open? Yeah, no, right now, um, I think it's six teams have between a 13 and a 20% chance in SP+, um, to win the title.
29:18
And part of that is, is because of the, the way the bracket currently lays out. The top two teams in SP+ are Ohio State and Oregon. They play each other.
29:25
The third best remaining team is Texas, who will probably play the winner of that in the next round. So certainly, you know, Penn State isn't graded out as highly, but they have a good draw.
29:35
You know, it, uh, the draw plays in, uh, plays a role here, but I don't mind that at all. It, it looks like it's going to be super fun to, to follow along.
29:42
But yeah, i- if SP+ was, was setting the lines, Ohio State would be the title favorite, just slightly because of the draw, but they'd be the favorite.
29:50
So you just alluded to it there, because that was, th- that was my biggest takeaway. And I think it's not an original one.
29:54
I think a lot of people have this, which is couldn't the committee have sort of, uh, and I don't want to use the word manipulate, 'cause that sound like it's- [laughs]...
30:01
you know, that sounds like it's some, you know, you have some ill intentions with it. Mm-hmm.
30:06
But if they, maybe even if they proper seated it differently, and it might not even be improper, where Oregon didn't have to play Ohio State in this round, which some people feel, some people feel is the de facto national championship.
30:16
But you, it doesn't bother you, is what you're saying?
30:18
Yeah, I mean, I think this is where, you know, watching tennis through the years, watching European soccer through the years, I'm kinda used to weird draws at this point. Um, so that is kind of...
30:27
I've been trained in that regard to, to accept that this stuff happens. Also, I, I do like the principle of making conference titles matter more.
30:36
We, we made sure that making the conference title game mattered by not really punishing SMU all that much for losing their conference title game.
30:43
We made sure that, you know, four different, uh, conference championship games on, in championship weekend decided buys, decided huge stakes in that regard. And, and this is what you get.
30:53
You get kinda weirdness if you're basically saying the top four are going to be from somewhere among the top 12 teams. Uh, and then, you know, you seed it from there. You're gonna get weird stuff.
31:03
And it, there's no question that it hurt Ohio State and Tennessee the most, uh, because they landed in that eight, nine spot instead of, like, a six, seven.
31:10
But, you know, I, I, you know, the, the, the, Ohio State already has a ton of resource advantages over most of college football. You know, a harder draw, oh, well.
31:19
You're, you're not crying for them is what you're saying. I get it. All right. [laughs] Not so much.
31:22
So when we get to these quarterfinal games now, uh, the, you know, P- Penn State an 11-point favorite against Boise State. Um, Texas a 13-and-a-half-point favorite over a pretty feisty offense in, in ASU.
31:36
Uh, the, the c- the most closely lined games are the, uh, the Rose Bowl, are at the Rose Bowl and the Superdome. Rose Bowl might as well be a Pac-12 versus a Big Ten, right? We get Ohio State, Oregon.
31:44
Uh, Ohio State favored by two and a half. And then Georgia, without Carson Beck, still a two, now a two-and-a-half-point favorite, this is interesting, against Notre Dame. Where lies the value per your numbers, sir?
31:57
Well, I would say the biggest value here with the numbers i- you know, the numbers don't know that Carson Beck is out. Or I guess they also don't know that Riley Mills is out now, so it kinda...
32:06
But quarterbacks still trump defensive ends in, in value. But it still says, uh, Georgia by, I think, a half point.
32:12
So if you factor in injuries at all, you end up kinda swaying towards Notre Dame by maybe a half point or a point. Uh, and the line seems to be disagreeing in that regard. So there seems to be a little value there.
32:23
I, SP+ also really doesn't like Arizona State. It kind of made its decision on them in October and only moved them up to about, I think, 30th, um, when they kinda got hot late in the year.
32:33
They finished the regular season overachieving against those projections pretty massively, so maybe there's value there. But, um, I guess they've also had, like, four weeks off now, so maybe that cancels out.
32:42
It, that part's kinda interesting. If you think that Arizona State is better than SP+, then, um, you know, that probably cancels out some value there. But I definitely think Notre Dame's an interesting one right now.
32:53
Yeah. Th- th- th- and, you know, beyond the numbers, did Texas giving up a whole bunch of yards to Clemson, you know, give you pause a little bit? I, I...
33:01
It was confusing because it was the first time Texas's offense really hit projections in, like, five games. Right. But then it was, uh, you know, it, it kinda was countered with some massive underachievement. I, I...
33:11
You know, Clemson found most of its value throwing deep or throwing intermediate passes, and that's not really Arizona State's thing. [laughs] They don't have any receivers. True.
33:19
They had one receiver this off- uh, this season, and he got hurt. So, um, it was just random guys running, you know, deep routes against Iowa State, and it worked, but their value comes from running the ball.
33:28
And, and we don't necessarily know that Texas is any worse than that, uh, worse at that than they were, you know, in the SEC championship. So maybe that doesn't apply. Bill, I really appreciate it, man. Happy holidays.
33:38
Before you go, real quick, have you had a chance to dive into your tennis numbers? And can you tell us who's gonna win- [laughs]... the women's side of the Australian Open? No, not yet?
33:44
Oh, man, I love the women's tour right now because I have absolutely no idea from tournament to tournament who's best. I guess it's Sabalenka still.
33:51
Um, but, phew, i- it's, it's every draw you start realizing, you see the third round match-ups, you're like, "Wait, they're playing in the third round?" Oh, yeah. I, it's a really, really deep field. I like it a lot.
34:01
I can't wait. Thank you, Bill. Happy holidays, man. You too. Bill Connelly, everybody, right here on The Numbers Game. Christmas list is next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:17
Coming up at the show, or after the show, top of the hour after The Numbers Game, Money Moves with Stormy Bonitoni.
34:23
Stormy and Jeff Schwartz doing their thing from noon to 2:00 today, noon to 2:00 Eastern, followed by Prop Points from 2:00 to 3:00 with John Hanson. Make It Rain with Adam Shine.
34:31
I think, uh, Scott Seidenberg is in for Adam Shine today from 3:00 to 4:00. That's what's coming up on VSiN, the sports betting network, which brings us to our G Bank Best Bets of the Day.
34:41
G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. And we have a, uh, bevy of bets on the show. Can I say bevy? Uh, starting with mine. I'm on the, uh, Commanders.
34:49
They got the worst of it here, minus four and a half, hosting the Falcons on Sunday. It's down to four. It went against me. I'm on the Chiefs, laying two and a half against the Steelers tomorrow, Christmas Day football.
35:00
I took the Panthers plus the points on, uh, on, uh, Sunday against the Buccaneers. Got them plus eight and a half. And I got the Lions laying the three and a half Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers.
35:11
Not listed, I am on San Jose State tonight in the Hawaii Bowl. I'm on the Spartans laying three. Uh, I actually bought it down to two and a half in some spots as well.
35:20
Nick Whalen, Nick Whalen from Rotowire was on the show today. He's got a bunch of, uh, football plays. Broncos, Bengals over 49 and a half. He's on the Dolphins laying the points, uh, six and a half.
35:31
Uh, Ravens laying the points tomorrow against the Houston Texans. And in the NBA tomorrow, a full slate of NBA, not a full slate, but a full quintuple header of NBA.
35:41
He's got the Lakers and the Dubs, the under 230 in the Lakers-Warriors games. He's laying the points with the Mavericks, laying five.
35:47
And then he's got the Cel- the Sixers, Celtics over at 222 tomorrow in some, uh, Christmas Day NBA basketball. Uh, Sia Najad joined us from the Monumental Sports Network.
35:57
He's on the Ravens as well tomorrow, laying the points at Houston. He's taking the points with the Steelers against the Kansas City Chiefs. And then on Sunday he's got the Patriots catching the points as a home dog.
36:09
Plus, he made a play on the Buccaneers to win the NFC South with just two games remaining in the season. Bucs need some help, but Bucs have a very easy schedule, which got him at minus 135 to win the AFC South.
36:18
And then Will Hill joins us for a couple segments. He is on South Florida tonight. We are oppo in the Hawaii Bowl. He's taking the Bulls, taking the points against San Jose State.
36:27
Then he's on North Carolina As Bill Belichick looms now over the program, he's taking Carolina, laying the points, and he's got the Vandy Georgia Tech under 51.5. That's on Friday. The Carolina game is on Saturday.
36:40
Football, we are oppo on the Falcons and the Skins. He's taking the points with the Falcons. He's taking the points with the eliminated Cardinals, taking the six against the Los Angeles Rams.
36:50
And he has made his bet already on the National League MVP, and I do not blame him. I need to make this as well. Show hey to win NL MVP at 2-1 odds. Best bets brought to you by GBank, the official bank of Vsin.
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37:30
Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Rick Ollier, let's skip the top of the list and go directly to the worst Christmas songs. McCartney's song should be number one with a bullet.
37:39
Oh God, now it's stuck in my head. Rando baseball player of the day, Alan Wiggins. It's Andrew Wiggins' father, by the way. Brosek1870, you need to get some value from working with Darnold. You tag and trade him.
37:51
Talking about our Sam Darnold talk earlier. John Balducci, I haven't seen the list yet, but I already know it's wrong and it sucks. Merry Christmas and happy Hanukkah. Doug Wedge, Doug Wedge always kind.
38:03
He said, happy holidays all around the Vsin host and crews that keep my favorite shows going. Life would suck without you. He's given us a shout out. He's given Megapot a shout out.
38:11
He's given Follow the Money a shout out and all the handicappers as well. Happy holidays to you and yours. And finally, Roger Jones at Bronco Wins. Look at you, Gil.
38:19
Really holidaying it up by dropping an Easter egg using the word diaspora. That can only mean VR will be on with you and Meltzer like Seltzer for the lifestyle Megapot in a few weeks.
38:29
We got to get VR on either for that one or for week 18 in the Megapot. We'll see which he prefers. Happy holiday to you and yours and Merry Christmas, happy Hanukkah, whatever it is that you're celebrating.
38:39
Happy Kwanzaa as well. Here's the deal. I do not celebrate Christmas, but I love Christmas.
38:46
I have loved Christmas since I was a little boy to the point where I say to everybody, if you don't love Christmas, what the hell is wrong with you? Who doesn't love Christmas? It's a beautiful time of year.
38:55
People wishing each other the best. People are nicer. And I can tell you that when I was a kid, a little boy, and my mom broke the news to me and she said it.
39:03
And by the way, she said it way too nonchalantly when she told me. You should be softer with a little boy. She was like, Santa doesn't come to our house. And she sort of giggled.
39:12
And I didn't like my mom that day very much at all. And I thought to myself, what a raw deal. How do I get out of this Judaism thing so I can get Santa to come to my house? But I'll tell you what I made up for it.
39:21
Great Christmas songs through the years. And it's time for our annual numbers game Christmas song list. We don't have any cool intro. I do have some honorable mention, though.
39:30
A couple, a few songs here that didn't make the top 10, but they deserve a shout. The Waitresses, Christmas Wrapping. Chris Valika introduced me to this song a few years back. It's cool. I like it.
39:42
Not quite a top tenner, but Christmas Wrapping by The Waitresses absolutely deserves a mention. So too does Hallelujah, A Soulful Celebration, Handel's Messiah. This was a Quincy Jones production.
39:53
If you like a gospel-y Christmas song, I point you to Hallelujah by Handel's Messiah, A Soulful Celebration. Just an absolutely great chorus to play on Christmas Eve morning or on Christmas Day itself or beyond.
40:08
And then Baby It's Cold Outside. I promised an honorable mention. This is a holiday classic. The Bobby Caldwell Vanessa Williams version is the go-to for me. That is an honorable mention top 10 Christmas jam of all time.
40:22
Baby It's Cold Outside, by the way, a little bit of a me-too song in this generation. Some of the lyrics, not so fun for folks. I don't care. I still love it. Sorry. All right. Here's your top 10 list. Number 10.
40:34
10, 9, and 8 are versions of classics. You're going to hear lots of artists do certain of the Christmas standards. 10, Peace on Earth, Little Drummer Boy, David Bowie and Bing Crosby.
40:47
This gets on the top 10 list, just makes it. It's sort of an old-school mashup. You know how the kids love their mashups?
40:53
This is a Christmas holiday mashup with Bing doing Little Drummer Boy in the background and David Bowie doing the high notes on this. That's number 10.
41:01
Number 9, the Christmas song, Chestnuts Roasting on an Open Fire, a classic which has been done a million times by so many artists. My favorite version is Al Jarreau's version, the late great Al Jarreau, who just has
41:14
one of the great voices of all time. The Temptations in Silent Night. If you have a Christmas list that does not include The Temptations' Silent Night, you're doing it wrong.
41:23
It's a classic six-minute version from The Temptations featuring the falsetto of The Temptations in this one. It is absolutely beautiful. Got to have that. And as far as the top seven, now it gets original. Number seven.
41:36
Remember, it's my list. I don't care what you say. Number seven. You may know Ray Parker Jr. from the 80s hit Ghostbusters. Got himself a Christmas song, and it is awesome. Ray Parker Jr.'s Christmas Time is Here.
41:51
When we were talking about the yacht rock doc a few weeks back, someone put out their favorite yacht rock jams of all time, and this actually made it, which I didn't really associate the two, but I just love it as a Christmas song.
42:02
Ray Parker Jr.'s Christmas Time is Here. Number seven on the list. And then number six, making its debut on the top 10 list. It's also a Christmas classic, but it's done by Sean Colvin.
42:14
Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas. I cannot recommend this high enough. It is a very soulful version of Have Yourself a Merry Christmas with just absolutely great vocals from Sean Colvin.
42:27
It's from the 90s, which brings us to our top five. And boy, oh boy, does the tension mount. You guys have bets on this? I know you do. Uh, number five. Remember, it's my list.
42:38
"All I Want for Christmas Is You" from Mariah Carey. This is from the, uh, 1990s. I remember when it came out, you knew it was destined for stardom. It eventually became a number one song in the country.
42:50
Say what you will, but Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You" is absolutely a top fiver with great male background vocals. Gotta love when it's a female lead and the male background vocals.
43:02
"All I Want for Christmas Is You," number five on the all-time list. New additions. "It's Christmas All Over the World," number four. If you're an R&B person, you know this song. If you're not, you probably don't.
43:13
New Edition known for, uh, more bubblegum, uh, hits when they were kids, and later, more adult sound. But this is their Ch- this was the big hit off their Christmas album. It's awesome.
43:22
"It's Christmas All Over the World" by New Edition, number four. Number three, classic, Paul McCartney. I know somebody just had him number one on their list. I got it at number three.
43:32
Uh, I know folks think, "Oh, that they play it too much. It's too much." Makes me smile every time, people. I don't care. Paul McCartney, "A Wonderful Christmastime," number three on the list.
43:43
Now, this was a big debate between one and two. One was almost unseated, almost. Number two, no judgments, Wham!, "Last Christmas."
43:54
In fact, if you have Netflix, there is a full documentary now about Wham!'s "Last Christmas." It's over an hour long about the, uh, c- conceiving of this song.
44:05
Now, George Michael's one sort of wish when he was at the height of his fame in 1984 with Wham! was he had to have a number one Christmas song. He got it with "Last Christmas" by Wham!.
44:15
39 years after it was released, it finally got to number one. "Last Christmas" by Wham!, infectious, number two Christmas song of all time.
44:23
And the number one Christmas jam of all time, for the third year in a row on this show. I think we've been doing it for three years. Maybe we've done it for more. Donny Hathaway's "This Christmas." If you know, you know.
44:36
If you don't know, now you know. The absolute most soulful Christmas song of them all. "This Christmas" by Donny Hathaway, number one once again on the Numbers Game Top 10 Christmas Jams of All Time list.
44:46
Thank you for listening. Go debate. I'm still keeping my list. Money Moves is next with Stormy, right here at VEISA.
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