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Dec 3, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 3, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | December 3, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:59
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:35
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. All right, we take it as in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. This is my man, Kelly Bitlan, everybody.
0:46
How you doing? Doing well. How about you? I am well. I am well. What a, uh, w- [laughs] in the words of Howard Cosell, "What a game this turned out to be." Oh, it was amazing. Classic Jameis. Classic- Nothing better...
0:59
vintage Jameis. We'll get to it momentarily. It really was. When they send that guy to the Hall of Fame, they should send that tape in with him. Oh, what's that? He's not going to the Hall? Okay.
1:06
[laughs] Um, but that would be like, "This represents your career tape." Yeah, yeah, this is the cl- it was the classic Jameis game, and hey, if you're not...
1:14
I- if he's not on your team, if you're not betting on him, would you rather watch anybody else? That's all I gotta ask. [laughs] Oh, God. I, uh, well, we'll get to that.
1:22
I just wanna say, we have Drew Dincic coming up, f- uh, the whale capper, of course, from both the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcasts. We will talk to Will Hill, all his bets.
1:29
Paul Carr coming off the old clean sweep, 3 and 0. He'll be here to, uh, talk Premier League with us. And Peter Futek, Heisman voter. Gonna ask him straight up, "Who are you voting for?"
1:40
Actually, before I even ask him that, you know what I'm gonna ask him? 'Cause all these Heisman voters are deadbeats, these 938 deadbeats. [laughs] I'm just gonna ask him- Dead...
1:48
"Did you already send it in before the championship games?" 'Cause they, they literally mail in their votes, I think. We, uh, w- yeah, we do need to get a timing update. I don't know how that works, uh, these days.
1:59
The deadline is after these championship games. December 9th is the deadline. But- Okay... because they're deadbeats, let me just repeat that- Do they have to fax them in?... they don't take their votes seriously.
2:07
They just, I don't know what they do. I don't know if they mail them in. Literally, it would be great if they mailed them in, 'cause you could say, "Oh, you just mailed in your vote," you know? Um.
2:13
Are we still using fax machines for national letters of intent? Fax, Telex, I don't know. That was mind-blowing 10 years ago, and now we're in 2024. Uh, let's talk about this game last night. Broncos 41, Browns 32.
2:24
I just wanna ask you this off the top. If you're a Browns backer here, weather game, weather first half, weather end games, but let's just talk about the, the pre-flop full ATS. Sure.
2:37
Is this the w- is this one of the worst beats, I won't hold you to the worst beat of the year.
2:41
Is this one of the worst beats of the year, or, or is it, "Hey, you bet on Jameis, you should have known what you were getting into"? Okay. It's, uh, it's a great question, first of all. Thank you.
2:54
Because from my perspective, it's definitely the second one- But-... but I feel bad for you today if you had Browns tickets. This was brutal. Gotta know what you're signing up for. Brutal.
3:02
Let's just pick it up when it's 14 to 10 Broncos, late second quarter. So the Browns have the ball, trying to cover the first half spread. They don't know they're covering the first half spread- [laughs]... but we do.
3:14
All right? Uh, first- [laughs] I mean, Gil bet the first half spread. First and 10 at the Denver 29. Jameis r- and right to Nick Benito, 71 yards to the house, 21-10 Denver with 1:38 in the second quarter.
3:28
And then Jameis, just to spite everybody, has a spite drive where he quickly engineers an 11-play, 70-yard drive all through the air. Jameis to Njoku on third and goal at the four, 21-17.
3:40
Cleveland has themselves a double dip opportunity.
3:43
But that is, again, he had already thrown two completions for 44 yards before this, one to Jerry Ju- Judy, who had the greatest game of his career, uh, and then one to Elijah Moore earlier, 44 yards.
3:56
And then on this drive, it's all on Jameis' arm, but it's the spite drive after he throws the pick six to Benito. Mm-hmm. And by the way, let me just say this.
4:03
If you watch this game, if you watch every play, Jameis ended up with three interceptions, two pick sixes. He might've, he could have had at least four other interceptions. Oh, of course, yeah.
4:14
Every ball he throws is in this m- minuscule window where Jameis says to himself, "Jameis, I can do this," and he just rifles it into the smallest window. You're just like, "Oh," every play you're like, "Oh my God."
4:28
Uh, I love the confidence. [laughs] Uh, is that what, is that what your take was on that? That's pretty good. 21-17 Broncos at the half. At the halftime, Winston had 245 yards passing with the one pick six.
4:41
Judy was 5 for 97 receiving, and it was a 298-141 total yards advantage for the, for the Brownies. All right. Same score, Denver third and 11 from their own seven. Nix to Mims for 93. What a pass. What a pass by Bo Nix.
4:57
It was incredible. Uh, and Mims is always making plays. 28-17 Denver, 10 minutes left in the third quarter, but the next drive, first play, Jameis is like, "Watch this," to Judy for 70, toasting Levi Wallace.
5:08
They were just killing Levi Wallace. Two-point conversion to Judy, it's 28-25 Denver with three, uh, 9:50 left in the third quarter. 9:50 left in the third quarter, Jameis has 336, 9.1 yards per attempt.
5:22
Judy six for 167 and a touchdown. I mean, these are like, at this point you're like, "Okay, what are the, what are the records for both of these?"
5:31
554 was the re- is the record for passing yards in a game, Norm Van Brocklin. 336, Flipper, receiving yards. The, the great Flipper Anderson. Not so great, but the- Flipper...
5:42
one of the, one of the all-time very good Flipper Anderson. Yeah. Okay, so 28-25, let's move it forward. This is later now. Jameis to Judy for 35 to start a drive. We're in the fourth quarter now.
5:54
Uh, later on third and eight to Michael Woods for 14, then on third and 15 to Judy for 17, eventually to Chubb from five out into the end zone. 32-31 Cleveland, 8:57 left. Winston's got 446 at this point. Judy's got 219.
6:08
And the Browns have 503 total yards. Denver, fourth and one at the Cleveland nine with 2:57 left, down a point. Sean Payton thinks to go for it.
6:18
Joe Buck then mysteriously announces that analytics say kick the field goal. What analytics are you looking at? Payton changes his mind. He opts for a Lutz 27-yard field goal. Were you okay with that at the time?
6:29
I was okay with it. I, I, I was okay with it, yes. I, I don't know [laughs]. I couldn't b- I couldn't understand anything that was happening. I was like, "Joe Buck, what?"
6:37
I, I, I- Analytics all of a sudden says kick the field goal there? I, I was confused by that, yeah. Yeah, I was too. Um, okay, 34-32, Lutz hits the field goal. 34-32 Denver. Uh, Cleveland gets the ball with 2:54 left.
6:51
You're like, "Come on, come on. Just, you know, you could win the game here. All you need is a field goal." But it's Jameis, right? Jameis is sacked immediately. Browns get behind the sticks.
6:59
Third and 12 at their own 20, uh, 28. Jameis across the field to Elijah Moore for 14. Amazing catch, keeping both toes down to the sideline. 1:59 to go. Denver elects not to challenge it and waste their last timeout.
7:11
Next play, Jameis looking for Elijah Moore, picked by Ja'Quan McMillen, untouched, gets up, 46 to the house, and there you have it. Elijah Moore, by the way, the intended receiver, doesn't even try to tag him down. Yeah.
7:26
He's out of bounds. He's lollygagging. He's like, "Oh, well, it's a pick. What am I gonna do about it?" I don't- How about run back on the field and tag him down?
7:34
I don't really understand how we see that as often as we do. Like, w- what, does the receiver think there's always gonna be someone that's gonna come over, come over and touch him down? Like, I, I don't get that.
7:44
41-32 Denver at this point, and if you're back in Cleveland, you're like, "This cannot be happening. This cannot be happening." But you know what? You have the ball again with 1:48 left.
7:56
Cleveland, fourth and 10 at their own 25. To Judy for 16. Most receiving yards ever in a game versus a former team, Jerry Judy last night. Wow. 235 yards on nine catches. So they matriculate.
8:09
Subsequent PI to the two-yard line. You got the ball at the two. All they have to do is punch it in. That's it. They're gonna cover. You deserve this cover, Cleveland Browns backers. You deserve it. And Jameis,
8:22
Kelly, when I say Cody Barton is right in front of him- [laughs]... and he goes- So bad. [laughs]... "Boop. Here you go, Cody. Here's the ball." What in the world? Oh, man.
8:31
He throws it right to Cody Barton of the Broncos. That's it. Broncos cover. Jameis, the quintessential Jameis game, 497 yards passing.
8:42
Remember, again, the record is 554, so he's only 57 yards shy of that, but he has three picks, two of which are returned the other way to the house. So in the end, do you want that? It's just Jameis.
8:58
Here's Opta stats putting this in, in, uh, context. This is amazing that someone thought to put this together. Uh, Opta stats say Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards tonight. The Broncos also had
9:09
171 interception return yards against him. The 668 combined passing yards plus interception return yards off of his passes is the most by any quarterback in a single game in NFL history.
9:21
Of course, you should really subtract the 171 from the 497, not add it. [laughs] Details. Uh, details. But still. Hey, you can look at it either way, right?
9:28
Jameis, um, looks to a higher power to help him out with this problem that he has. I am a better player, you know? Uh, but i- i- in times like this, you know, that's, it's,
9:44
it's a opportunity to continue to glorify the Lord even through the toughest circumstances. I know I'm better than this. I know. I'm, I'm, like, I'm just praying for the Lord to deliver me from pick sixes.
9:56
Like, that's just, that's not me. Like, a phenomenal game, offense, do some great things, but I messed it up. Well, I wish the Lord had told me that Christmas tree was gonna be this heavy- [laughs]... this past weekend.
10:10
Best part is- I figured that'd be his department. He didn't tell me that either. Listen, Jameis, uh, the Lord first has to tell you to stop throwing it to little small windows. That, I mean, that's the thing.
10:19
Again, three picks, two of which went the other way, but it could, there could have been four other picks at least in that game. I, I just like, Jameis, uh, the "It's not me"? Bro, it's been you your entire career, man.
10:32
[laughs] It's all good. Like, we love you for it. Oh, man. Like, it's been you your entire career. What was the, the 30-30 season, the legendary 30-30, 30 season where- Yeah...
10:41
he needed to throw a pick six right, for them to get to overtime so he had a chance to get to 30-30? Like- And he did... and he did. Like, that, that's been you the whole c- the whole time, man.
10:50
We, we were actively rooting for him to go 30-30 that game. Oh, God, I was, yeah, I was. I was at the D cheering like a madman for that. All right, last two things on this.
10:58
How bad is D- how bad is Deshaun Watson that Jameis could do this with his offense? Deshaun Watson was, th- they couldn't move at all. I, I don't- And by the way- What are we talk- we've been yelling this for months.
11:08
What are we talking about? By the way, how, can someone explain to me how Deshaun Watson got this bad? Yeah, I don't know. 'Cause he didn't used to be this bad. How does that happen?
11:18
And then the other w- thing I'll say is the Broncos go to eight and five. Um, they are in playoff position already. They are even more, pardon me, even more solidified in it. Um,
11:30
Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels, in your mind, a coin flip right now for Rookie of the Year? Eh, still, I, yeah, I'd still have J- uh, I'd have Daniels ahead, but- And I think the market reflects that. Yeah.
11:41
Jayden with a sl- slight edge, but if you look at their stats, they're pretty darn similar. I don't even know.
11:45
Like, Jameis takes over the game so much last night, like, I don't really know e- even know what to take away from the Denver side. [upbeat music] Like, it was just a track meet. What a game this turned out to be.
11:56
Cosell used to say that when, when it was a bad matchup and it still turned out well. And if I, I- That was that... if I don't have money on it, give me Jameis every time. So fun.
12:03
Jameis just killing Browns backers at every turn. We'll come back, Drew Ditzik on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:22
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12:29
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12:37
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12:51
Man, whenever you add a Mason jar into the equation- Mm. Just the image of that. Yep. Looks good, tastes good. Give me some now. Uh, all right, we get tweets that beat the book. Always appreciate the feedback.
13:03
This is from James Moran, @jiggs44. He says, "Is there a rule I'm missing?
13:07
When trying to get a defense to jump offsides with a hard count only to let the play clock run all the way down and take a delay of game, why don't more teams instead try to have a offensive lineman move a little bit to get a jump?"
13:17
[laughs] Well, if you can perfect that and go under detection from the, uh, officials, then that's one thing, but I don't, I don't think that's... I think it's a lot harder to pull off than you're making it out to be.
13:27
Yeah. Did you catch that play, uh, by, play last night? The o- Where, uh, Bo N- The clear false start? Oh, which one? Yeah. W- wasn't that last night's game? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
13:35
Bo Nix did one last night where at the end of it- That was good too, yeah... at the end of it, he goes, "Jump offsides." [laughs] I saw that video. How do we get these videos these days, by the way?
13:43
That was like, did you see the real close-up of that? No. What did he- I mean, it had to be someone, like, shooting from the end zone- Oh, yeah... but I, like, I s- like, saw his whole face while he was calling it. Yeah.
13:52
Steve Cohen, @thestevecohen21, not that Steve Cohen. He says, "Gil, son I say, son I do declare that was a great Guess the Line show yesterday." Thank you. Uh, this is from, uh, Straight Cash Homie.
14:04
He's, uh, he's upset about the NFL MVP talk. He says, "NFL MVP award is so dumb. In what world is Saquon Barkley not MVP of the league? Just call it the best quarterback award.
14:13
Josh Al- Josh Allen has been good, but not remotely close to Barkley this season."
14:17
Uh, this is from Teasers and Parlays, "Really hoping Gil doesn't pull a Gus Johnson and lose his voice recapping the game [laughs] last night during the first segment. So much back and forth." I almost did.
14:26
C- C Spackler, "Sold the house, bought an RV. Sitting on the kid's couch and waiting to pick up the RV. I have two solid hours of a numbers game. Fighting boredom. Save me a numbers game. You're my only hope."
14:35
Bruce Dobiggett, "Sitting here in West Palm. Never knew it was Kelly on the local ESPN Radio back in the day. FAU hasn't been the same since he left." Had a big impact on that program.
14:44
"We'll toast him at Guanabana tonight." Guanabana's Jupiter, good drinking spot, right on the water. Stringfellow Haw, "Jameis giveth, Jameis taketh away." That's right.
14:52
Snarky Fan, "I had Browns plus six pre-flop and plus 10 live. Almost lost them both with those late antics." Charles in Connecticut, "I had Denver minus six as the last leg of a five-team parlay.
15:02
When Denver kicked the field goal to go up 34-32, I knew I lost my bet. And then as if a, a, as if rest if game hadn't been crazy, the full-speed Jameis experience kicked in in the last two minutes.
15:12
I won bet, lost bet, won it again. What a ride." Doug Tuttle, "I'm looking to the Lord to help me with bad picks as well." Sean Higgs, "The Christmas tree should be in his department. Oh, classic Gil."
15:23
[laughs] Las Vegas514, "Yo, and the congregation said amen." And JasonH11, "I do declare the good Lord couldn't hit a two iron, and sure as heck can't thread the needle in the places Jameis is trying to throw it."
15:35
That is for sure, man. Again, every pass is an adventure. You're like, "Is he gonna get it in? Oh my God, how did he get it in?" And then- That was crazy... and then until he doesn't, and it goes the other way.
15:45
Yeah, that was that, that fourth down play where the clear false start- [laughs] Oh, yeah... and he didn't call it. Yeah.
15:50
There was a, there was a sequence last night, we'll get to Drew here, but there was a sequence last night where the, where the officials, like, missed three things in a row from both teams.
15:57
There was a face mask on Jaleel McLaughlin on one of his, uh, like, 17-yard runs where they didn't, they missed that entirely. Then, um, there was the fourth and one at their own 39 where Jameis...
16:08
Oh, yeah, false start uncalled. Yep. That's right. That's exactly right. And then Jameis got helmet to helmeted. Those are- Yeah, yeah... consecutive drives, all of those. They missed them all.
16:16
Drew Dincic joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him @whale_capper.
16:21
He is the host of not just the Deep Dive podcast, which he does with Andy Molator, but also NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. Drew joins us now from Long Beach. How you doing, man? Oh, doing well.
16:32
Hope you guys had a great Thanksgiving. And, uh, yeah, it was a, a incredible weekend of football, uh, and betting up until, uh, the, uh, blown cover by the Browns. [sighs] That was a tough one. But, uh- [laughs]...
16:43
you know, I, you, you know, you get what you sign up for when you bet on Jameis Winston, and, uh, I will, I will tell you that, uh, that game was infinitely more entertaining with him involved, and I'll take it.
16:53
That was, that was my question the first segment. One of the worst beats of the year, or you should've known better, you were betting on Jameis? Which is it? It's both, right?
17:00
Uh, it was one of the worst beats of the year, and I mean, I guess, like, there's all this focus on Jameis's, you know, part, uh, which is fair 'cause, you know, his picks, the pick six really kind of sealed it.
17:12
Um, and the, you know, I honestly think on that drive if, if he, if they avoid the turnover, they probably go down and, and score, and I don't know if the, know if there's enough time left for the Broncos to return.
17:23
Um, but, uh, I, I think, I kinda wanna give credit to, uh, the, um, the Broncos' defensive players. There were some incredible plays made in that game by, uh, a number of them.
17:35
Benito, uh, his pick six was incredible, uh, with just a, just unbelievable anticipation on where Winston was gonna go with the ball, and then getting in front of the tight end was, uh, a nice, like, impressive athletic move.
17:47
Um, and then the catch made by McMillan, uh, staying in bounds, getting up, and getting that home was insane. Um, I would've appreciated it if he had taken a knee at the five or something. Uh- [laughs]... you know?
18:01
But, uh- I said, I said-... you know, it is what it is... Elijah, Elijah Moore didn't think to, like, run three steps back in bounds and tag him down- I know, I know...
18:07
or, and Jameis didn't, like- That was frustrating... pursue him on the run back at all. What was that? That was frustrating. [laughs] So bad. That part was frustrating. But yeah, I mean, I think, like, uh, the,
18:18
uh, lost a little bit in the mix here is, you know, the Broncos defense got torched all night, and I think, you know- They got torched... there's, there's, there's some clear problems there. Yep.
18:25
Um, but man, they made some standout plays when they had to, and, uh, that was pretty impressive.
18:29
And I, I, [smacks lips] I don't know, I, I don't I, I hold up, like, the Jameis Winston three-pick game against, you know, the Kirk Cousins four-pick game.
18:38
And, like, there's clearly a player in Winston that I would like to see more of, and there's clearly a player in Kirk that we've seen i- we've seen it all. It's over.
18:47
Uh, and I'm not exactly sure why the Falcons continue to go to d- his defense like he's some sort of, um, you know, work in progress.
18:55
It looks pretty clear that he's deteriorated to the point he can't necessarily get it done anymore, and the picks were worse, honestly. Like, the Winston picks weren't that bad. [laughs] They weren't great.
19:04
They were pretty bad. They weren't great. But the, you're right, the Cousin- the Cousins ones- One of them was on zone... were just as bad. They were just as bad. Yeah, Cous- Yep...
19:09
the Cousins ones were, like, you could see those coming a mile away. And, uh, yeah, I mean, it, it, uh, uh, yeah. Yeah. The, the, the Falcons and the Browns are, are two teams that lost.
19:20
A- and actually, that was kind of a weird common theme of the weekend. There were a lot of teams that outplayed their opponents that- Yes... flat-out lost. Yes.
19:26
Uh, and that doesn't happen very often, but it happened, like, six times this week. [laughs] Chargers were outplayed and won. Uh, Minnesota was outplayed- Yeah... at least in the box score, and won. Yeah.
19:38
Yeah, there was, there was- Jets. Jets were outplay- Yeah... yeah, yeah, Jets outplayed the, uh, the Seahawks and lost. Yeah. Yeah, they... It was, it was quite a lot of that this weekend.
19:45
And, uh, uh, you know, that, that will kinda stand out in my mind when I think about, uh, Thanksgiving weekend 2024. Even, even the Ravens, by the way, were- Yeah. Yeah... you know, kind of outplayed the Eagles.
19:57
They kept try- and the Eagles trep- kept trying to give them the game. The Ravens couldn't do it. Obviously, the, uh, the Chiefs were lucky to have won. The- Patriots outplayed the Colts significantly and lost.
20:06
[laughs] Yep. Yeah. It's a whole bunch of that this week. Yeah. You're right, almo- almost half the games.
20:10
Uh, before we get to your picks for week 14, we'll do that after the break, but the l- one of the la- most recent times you were on, you gave your p- your top five power rankings. Sure.
20:19
And they were, they had a big reaction. Let, let's just put it that way. Sure. Let me hear your updated top five, if you would.
20:25
Uh, m- so again, I guess the kind of important thing to qualify here is that I have almost n- there is very, very little margin, uh, right now for me across the top five.
20:36
Like, these teams are all within a point of each other, but, and no one has separated themselves. Um, but right now, I would put, begrudgingly, put Buffalo first. I would put Baltimore second.
20:45
I would put Philadelphia third. I have the Lions fourth, and I have the Chiefs fifth. So no one's gonna listen to your preamble, right? Let's just establish that. [laughs] Sure, yeah, yeah, yeah.
20:53
You just gave a very good preamble where you're like, "Okay, they're all five. They're bunched together." [laughs] All they're gonna hear- Everybody has purged that, and all they heard was who was four and five?
21:03
I would put Lions fourth and, and Chiefs five. I'm, I'm clearly way lower than the market on the Lions. And I, it, this has been a weird season of, like, old s- old-school tropes being very real.
21:16
Um, and I'm not trying to say that this is a continuation of that theme, but, um, it surely, to me, feels like the Lions are the team that peaks too early.
21:25
Um, I don't know that we have much more to see from them offensively.
21:29
Uh, I think that they got the best luck health-wise they could've asked for on the offense to this point in the season, and they have had now some seriously consequential bad luck defensively that is really starting to affect that unit.
21:41
And if the defense is unable to, you know, kind of create additional opportunities for the offense, then, um, the offense is not gonna look as good as what we saw in the month of October and November.
21:51
So Lions, to me, look like they might be in a little bit of a, a potential to slide, and I think the Eagles are kind of quintessentially the team that, you know, is, is peaking at the right time, uh, and, uh, you know, the team that no one's gonna wanna play.
22:04
And I think there's clear and obvious scope for the Eagles to run down the Lions and get the one seed. Who of the, who- So Packers plus three and a half for Drew- [laughs]... that's writing it down now.
22:14
[laughs] Is, is that correct? Are you taking the Packers plus the points? Yeah, I think that one's on the wrong side of the number three.
22:21
Um, and I bet the Packers when they lost to the Lions last time, so it's not, you know, I'm not being inconsistent here. [laughs] The, uh, uh, yeah, the, I think that in general, the, the, um, loss of Hutchinson
22:33
for a while didn't matter. They found interesting u- unique ways to scheme.
22:37
I think that was in large way because their linebacking core and their safeties were playing out of their minds, and now they've lost two of those linebackers for the season.
22:44
And I think that is going to be clear and obvious when they play a Packers team that is really anchored to Josh Jacobs' performance and has so many weapons they can hurt you with in the passing game.
22:53
Hey, real quick on the way out, where do you have the Niners ranked? Uh, I'm actually a little bit under, uh, uh, neutral right now with the, the injuries that they've sustained.
23:02
I think they, uh, they're probably, like, in the 16, 17 range. Yeah. It's a body count now, that's for sure. It's bad. All right, Drew's week 14 picks, besides the Packers.
23:11
On the other side, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter?
23:20
Start with smarter insights with expert breakdowns of the week's biggest matchups to deep dives into betting strategies and trends. VSiN delivers the kind of actionable content that gives you the betting edge.
23:30
Right now, you can check out articles like Greg Peterson's College Basketball Best Bets. The man is a machine. Hoops. La Machina.
23:38
Josh Applebaum's Early College Football Insights, Steve Macaron's College Football Analytics Report, and later today, you can check out Zach Cohen's NBA Best Bets and Player Props, Adam Shine's Shine Nine, and Jonathan Davis' Top NHL Best Bets.
23:51
Right now, you can sign up for as little as 9.99 for your first month at vsin.com/subscribe. That's a lot of nine going on in there. A lot of nines. Adam Shine, Shine Nine for 9.99. [laughs] Right here at vsin.com.
24:04
We get tweets at Beat of the Book, best listeners in the game. The numbers guys, "Can someone get Joe Buck, uh, Joe Buck a copy of the King James Book of Analytics?" Tell me about it.
24:13
And also Buck says, and I paraphrase, "Peyton is the only Coach of the Year candidate doing this with a rookie quarterback." He would mention Dan Quinn a minute later, but missed the keywords I misspoke. Yeah.
24:21
[laughs] I caught that. [laughs] I listened. I mentioned, I mentioned the analytics- I didn't hear that one. That's good...
24:26
I mentioned the analytics thing in the first segment, but yes, he also did the, he's like, "Oh, he's doing it with a rookie quarterback. No one's doing that." Uh, hello I didn't catch that one. That one's good Hello.
24:35
James Sott: "As a Browns backer, can't even be mad about it, uh, Jameis. I was entertained, especially as you guys pointed out how bad Watson became. I don't know if it's his conscience, uh, conscious,
24:46
consciences," he's only got one conscience, "uh, or what, but he's not even a good backup at this point. Where does he rate in the backup rankings?" [laughs] He's not even in the top 15. [laughs] He's not even.
24:55
Ryan Thompson, "Tough call between the worst bad beat of 2024 in the NFL between Cleveland last night and Tennessee week one at the Bears. Thanks, ill-advised Billy Levi's."
25:04
Well, there's also the Ha- Oh Mary with Jayden Daniels. There's a bunch of them. There's a lot of them.
25:07
Hoops by Hoots, "We have to give Jameis his own primetime sitcom at this point, complete with laugh track and co-stars." So true. Rocket, uh, Rockette Morton, "How could Watson get so bad?
25:18
Trolling Craigslist and flying a massage therapist in for happy endings has consequences. Wives and girlfriends look at him with disdain. You just don't shake off that kind of shame." Yeah, I mean, maybe it is that.
25:30
Who knows? Maybe it is that. Who knows? That messed up his mechanics. Maybe. Vegas Regular, "How come everything tastes better in a Mason jar?" You're right.
25:37
Whether it's a soda, cold lemonade, beer, or cocktail, everything. It's really true. Yeah, I was just thinking of- Just put, I would put ice, i- ice in a Mason jar and pour a soda over it, tastes better.
25:46
I was, I was just thinking about sweet tea. Sweet tea in the South out of a Mason jar. [laughs] We've- I drank so much in North Carolina last year... I think that just stopped both of us in our tracks right there.
25:56
Like you, you were doing the swoozery. We started talking about that. That's all I started thinking about was a sweet tea sounds good right now.
26:01
Brian M, "I have developed a path for an easy Vikings cover this week against the Falcons.
26:05
They put J- uh, Justin Jefferson out on defense, and Cousins' muscle memory just throws the ball right to him, not looking at anyone else on the field." [laughs] It's a good strategy. Yeah.
26:12
Drew Dinson kind enough to join us for, uh, segment number two from the LBC courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Again, you can follow him at whale_capper. Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast.
26:23
Uh, before we get back to football, last day of the NBA Cup group stage. Yeah. Oh, wow, it really stuck his- Detroit basketball. [laughs] What, what do you have tonight?
26:34
What are you sweating out in terms of a future here? Uh, I have nothing in the NBA Cup. They've taken away my edge [laughs] in these, in these games because they make them all neutral, uh, neutral rest.
26:46
And, uh, they, honestly, like the way that they've been played so far has been very confusing. Some teams have taken it very seriously, and others are just kinda mailing it in.
26:55
So I'm out of the, I'm on the sidelines tonight. Oh.
26:58
Um, I'd like to, uh, I'd like to see, I mean, the, kinda the key teams to watch are, you're gonna need to watch point differential for teams who are gonna beat out Boston for the fourth spot in the East, I think.
27:11
Um, and, uh, you know, that, that includes Detroit, as Kelly mentioned.
27:15
So, uh, that one's, that one, I mean, I, I obviously have personal interest and my numbers say bet the Magic every single time they play a basketball game.
27:22
Actually, yeah, if you wanna know, uh, uh, what my numbers, uh, think about the Magic, they say bet the Magic.
27:28
Um, and the, uh, and yeah, in general the, uh, um, the East is kind of more drama tonight because of the, uh, potential seeding. But, um, yeah, the NBA's been super fun this season. Um, the
27:41
NBA Cup games themselves have been very thoughtfully scheduled, which has made the non NBA Cup days like wildly awesome in terms of [laughs] rest disadvantages.
27:52
Um, and so I've been kind of feasting on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and, uh, Saturday. And- You- Get, yeah, getting my tail kicked on Sunday for some reason.
28:01
You pointed that out to us, uh, before the cup started though, that, that the, they had made it so perfect with rest.
28:07
They intentionally made the rest equal on cup days, but the, the discrepancy came or the difference, I should say, the huge difference was on sort of the days after, if you will. Yeah, right.
28:17
The Wednesdays and, uh, the Wednesdays and Thursdays before- Really Wednesdays. Yeah. Yeah, Wednesdays have been pretty spectacular. Yeah.
28:23
And I, you know, if, yeah, I would particularly circle the teams that, um, you know, give you max effort tonight, uh, as, uh, odd fades tomorrow. What are you, what are you sweating tonight? Anything? I got a couple.
28:34
Uh, I've got, I'm involved in a couple games though where there's not really much NBA Cup, uh, implications. Like I have the Rockets tonight in Sacramento. That, that Kings team has been a disaster so far.
28:44
Drew, I don't know where you're, uh, looking at in that, that one.
28:47
And then I'm on the Raptors catching points with the Pacers coming to town, which is really gross, but, uh, that Pacers team's been pretty ugly here recently too. Any of your group stage stuff in play?
28:56
Yeah, I, I got Detroit 11 to one to win that, uh, to win that group. Ooh. So I did hedge a little bit with the Bucs 'cause they're playing really well right now. Yeah.
29:02
But, yeah, it would s- uh, Detroit win would be very nice tonight. All right, back to- The entire, yeah, a couple quick thoughts real quick on- Please... the NBA.
29:08
So Kings I actually think are a bet on the, to win the Pacific at 25 to one. Um, they have the best offense, and those teams, again, you know, kinda same kinda conversation about the top five in the NFL.
29:19
The t- five teams in the Pacific Division right now are separated by a hair. Um, the Warriors have taken a huge step back in the absence of Milton. Uh, the Lakers still need to make a trade to have a complete roster.
29:31
Uh, Kawhi Leonard may be coming back, may be coming back around Christmas, may play 30 games, who the heck knows? Uh, and the Suns are pretty fragile in terms of injury, uh, to any of their top guys.
29:40
So, uh, Kings are, they're weird. Their defense is not great. Fox has taken a huge step forward. Uh, and I think they're probably a bet on right now.
29:49
This is, uh, maybe a, a good buy low for them, uh, in a division that's very, very close. Uh, and, uh, Kelly mentioned the Bucs. I would, I have been perennially cold Bucs.
29:59
Um, you know, when, when their numbers came out last year after the Lillard trade, I was kind of appalled. Uh, win total stuff, none of it c- was even in the right area code to where, [laughs] to where I made that team.
30:10
Um, they finally got to the point where I am now rating them above market for the first time in the, uh, the Lil- Lillard-Giannis era.
30:17
So something has, has finally started clicking with, uh, the advanced stats in terms of what they're doing. Um, I haven't seen it eye test-wise to tell, tell you what it is.
30:27
Um, and uh, I guess hat tip to Doc Rivers 'cause I kind of s- felt like the way, after the way they started it was just over.
30:34
Um, but, uh, yeah, they're, they're, uh, they're rating top four for me right now, and second in the East.
30:39
Uh, the Warriors haven't been the same since they squandered that, like, 18- and 17-point leads on back-to-back games. That was just out of nowhere at the time. Ugh.
30:47
And then De'Aaron Fox may be the best superstar that nobody knows about in any sport, kind of in- Yeah, he's-... in exile there... great.
30:54
Right now, I would put him as the second-best player in the Pacific after Curry, and it's very close. And the Warriors had such abs- they absolutely hit a slam, a grand slam, uh, with the Melton signing.
31:06
He was the perfect player on the court next to Curry, and, uh, his absence with the ACL injury just absolutely crushes them. Yeah.
31:13
I, I know people know about De'Aaron Fox, I should be more precise, that people talk about. No one talks about De'Aaron Fox in that, uh, in that, uh, sort of realm. All right, back to the NFL. You have the Packers.
31:23
You're taking the Packers plus the points against the Lions on Thursday night. What are you doing on Sunday and Monday?
31:29
Yeah, week 14's gonna be, uh, it's gonna be a make or break for me for the season probably, 'cause my edges are, like, surprisingly large for this time of year, uh, in a bunch of these games. Ah. Hmm.
31:39
And I haven't completely filled out my card, you know, top to bottom yet. But, uh, I was, uh, I was kinda blown away at a bunch of numbers.
31:47
And, um, uh, the Rams stand out to me, obviously, uh, as on the other side of three. Uh, I think, uh, my fare on that one is a-
31:56
a- about, uh, uh, 2 point, uh, 2.5, and so I'm, you know, catching a huge amount of value there taking the four and a half. Um, and that's the biggest edge on my card this week.
32:08
Um, I haven't pulled the trigger on this, but I'm nowhere even in the same area code as Jets at six and a half.
32:15
[laughs] Uh, there's enough whiffs of quit around the Jets that I may ultimately pass on that one, but, um, nothing, I can't come up with, uh, an explanation that gets this game to six and a half, uh, you know, particularly, um, you know, with the, you know, uh, outside of the fact that the Dolphins are home and they have extra rest off the Thursday night game.
32:34
Um, my, uh, my number on the Chiefs is saying bet the Chiefs against the Chargers. I think the Chargers' offensive injuries are flying a little bit under the radar.
32:44
Um, Chiefs have, uh, you know, hair ex- extra rest here, second week in a row, in, in a row on the road for the, uh, Chargers. Uh, and, uh, my numbers say this one should be closer to six.
32:54
Um, the Lad McConkie news is probably the most important one to watch. Without him and without JK Dobbins, this Chargers offense is extremely thin- Mm-hmm... in terms of skill.
33:05
And, uh, their offensive line has taken a step back for whatever reason, so the Chiefs may be able to generate a little bit of pressure.
33:10
Uh, and I think if nothing else, this is, you know, kind of put up or shut up if you're, uh, gonna kind of stamp your, stamp your, um, uh, your, you know, impression on the, uh, AFC prior to, uh, you know, the, the, uh, the Christmas Day game against the, uh, um, the Texans.
33:28
So Chiefs, uh, would, or Christmas Day against the Steelers, my bad. Uh, so yeah, this is, uh, this is a big one for the Chiefs to, to really show up, I think. Justin Herbert, 147 yards passing this past weekend- Sh-...
33:39
117 of which were to McConkie. Um, so there you go, just for some context. And I think I'm with you on the Rams. I am coming around to that. Rams plus the points against the Bills.
33:51
I like that matchup with the Rams running game against that Bills D, who lets you run, right? Yeah. Here, go ahead, run. [laughs] Rams- True... Rams can still win the West. Oh, man. Drew, thank you, appreciate it, man.
34:03
Hey, best of luck, guys. Uh, Drew's jogged some bets for us in our heads. We'll do number one seeds next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:18
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34:27
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34:36
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34:43
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34:50
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. We got tweets that beat in the book. Eddie Vegan Runner, "I hear eggnog in a Mason jar is really good, Kelly."
35:02
Yeah, wouldn't try it. Can't try it. I'm done on, I'm done on eggnog. T Shell Doll, "Hey man, how many matriculates were in that game last night? I lost count."
35:10
It actually wasn't a big matriculate game- Yeah, not at all, yeah... 'cause there were, like, huge plays. Stevens doesn't play, um, a matriculation games. Come on. Talk about matriculate, man. Yeah. Geez. Um, Dave Ross.
35:20
Hey, I know Dave Ross. I know that guy. Dave Ross, who hosts the Lombardi Line, uh, right before us, he says, uh, he says, "I apologize to Gil and Kelly if there's any excess coffee on the, uh, VSiN set today."
35:29
Apparently he, uh, he had to put down a coffee tumbler today. He was, and he had a disaster. He, he was having some issues out here, yeah. Okay. He was having some issues. All right. Thank you, Dave.
35:36
Hey, Dave, as long as you didn't spill on yourself mid-show, that, that's all that really matters. Hey, uh, we got the number one seed markets coming up.
35:42
Before we, uh, before we do that, can I give a, uh, documentary recommendation? Please. People, people know where this is going. You have to know where this is going. Yacht Rock, HBO Max. Have you seen this yet? No. Oh.
35:53
There's also way too, like, you have, you, you just said people have to know where this is going. There's- Well, 'cause I'm about to recommend it, so they probably know that I'm into this...
35:59
but, like, there's w- there are new docs on these streaming services, like, every day. So, like, no, I don't, I don't know if people really knew that. Yacht Rock.
36:07
First of all, I hate the term yacht rock, because it, it, it, it diminishes what this music is, right? Mm-hmm. Yacht rock, uh, by the way, it's Bill Simmons executive produced.
36:17
Uh, he also, Bill Simmons executive produced, also produ- also gave us the 1999 Woodstock one, which is one of- Oh, so good. Yeah... one of the great documentaries ever.
36:27
Um, but, uh, this one is, it, it, it diminishes that time.
36:33
The yacht rock was a, uh, a term developed by some comedy, some streaming comedy group to r- to sort of give a catch-all phrase to this type of music, which is late '70s, early '80s, talking about Michael McDonald Uh, Kenny Loggins, Christopher Cross Yeah Uh, right in my wheelhouse, man Oh, it's great stuff.
36:52
I love listening to it. I'm surprised you have a problem with the name. It needed a more succinct name to te- tighten it all up Well, what, what other, what other- '70s, '80s light rock They pointed this out at the end.
37:01
What other genre of music gets a name 25 years later with some term? I don't know, but it, doesn't it say something about the staying power of those types of songs? Well, it says that- Or the resurgence of those songs?
37:12
Well, it says that it's awesome Yeah, well, well that's what I'm saying But, like, you know, they try to wedge Steely Dan into it. Mm-hmm. Steely Dan doesn't... Again, I grew up on yacht, what they call yacht rock.
37:24
Steely Dan was not part of that group. Steely Dan was a m- was a much different vibe to it, much more musically precise.
37:32
Like, they were true amazing musicians, not that these guys weren't, but Steely Dan was another thing. Steely Dan sort of blended all kinds of stuff. Um, but this is, I recommend this documentary.
37:44
If you, if you have any sort of relationship with the late '70s or early '80s and this kind of music, which is just spectacular, just, it's a lot of, um, Fender Rhodes. It's just a groove. It's just, it's tremendous.
37:58
You go to yacht rock stuff here in town, don't you? I was gonna say I have to check it out. I was just looking up when Yachtley Crew's gonna be in town next to play at The Palms, which I've, I've seen twice.
38:08
Amazing time both times. Everybody's wearing a, like a captain hat and everything like that. Uh, we're going December 28th, write it down. That's what we're doing? Saturday night. Yep. I guess we're going December 28th.
38:17
Guess that's what we're doing. It's a great time.
38:19
Um, JC Questionable Call on ESPN WP says, "Yes, Bruce, but did you listen to me and Kelly do Saturday mornings together on ESPN 106.3 at 10:00 AM back in the-" Ah, that's my guy Josh Cohen...
38:29
back in the spring, summer of 2013, John? That's right. [laughs] That's your guy Josh Cohen. "And Jeff Staples matriculate. Matriculate? I'm just hoping not to throw another pick six."
38:37
That's exactly what, uh, James has to say. All right, number one seed markets. Again, yacht rock, HBO Max. Check it out. Telling you. Thank me later. Uh, number one seeds. This is pretty interesting. Yeah.
38:49
Okay, you wanna start with NFC? Sure. All right. NFC- This one's le- less interesting to me, but- No, I think it's much- Oh, okay... more interesting. I think it's much more interesting.
38:57
NFC, you have four candidates, and we have listed four. I think four realistic candidates, right? You have the, uh, the Lions, who have one loss at minus 160. The Eagles are plus 190. They're 10 and two.
39:12
Lions are 11 and one. They're minus 160. The Eagles and Vikings, who are both 10 and two, the Eagles are plus 190, and the Vikings are seven to one. Yeah. This is for the number one seed.
39:22
Remember, there's only one s- one team that gets a bye now that there are seven teams in each conference that make the postseason. The Packers, who have three losses, they're 30 to one. 30 to one.
39:33
Now, you can throw out the Packers to me because not only do they have the three losses, but their schedule's difficult. But, but- They're nine and three...
39:42
their schedule's difficult, but they play two of these teams that are on here. They do. They play the Lions this week. Now, if you believe they beat the Lions this week, right, then maybe you consider it.
39:53
Maybe you consider it. But it's for the same... Well, it's not for the same reason. It's for different reasons that I actually like the Eagles. I like the Eagles at plus 190.
40:02
I think this is a bet because if you look at the Lion...
40:05
If you look at the Eagles' remaining schedule, Philadelphia Eagles, who are 10 and two, and believe me, I'm no fan of Philadelphia Eagles, but they have Carolina at home, Pittsburgh at home, at Washington, home Dallas, home Giants.
40:18
They're going four and one. Mm-hmm. They're gonna lose to the Commies, but they're gonna win all the others, right? That's, that's from my perspective. Okay. So if they go four and one, they end up with three losses.
40:30
The Lions, and by the way, the, the Lions right now, um, the Lions right now, they play at, they play Green Bay, then Buffalo. Let's say they split those. Then they have at Chicago, at San Francisco, Minnesota.
40:45
They can figure out a way to lose one of those- Mm-hmm... at the end. I don't know. I'm not, I'm, I'm not so sure Philadelphia's not the bet at plus 190.
40:54
And could you imagine after this season the Lions not having the number one seed? It'd be wild. I, I- You, you like the Packers at 30 to one? You would bet that? No, no, I just wanted to throw...
41:03
I actually, I just think there are more... I think all four of these teams, I wouldn't be shocked if one of them ended up there.
41:10
I, I think the pricing is actually it's a little insulting on Minnesota [laughs] of where they're at. I, I mean, especially since they have, they have, what? A game against the Lions and the Packers.
41:19
We talked about that, uh, before.
41:21
And they have, I mean, it's Falcons at home, Bears at home for them, Seahawks on the road, and then you get these straight up Pak- You got Packers at home, and then you're on the road against the Lions.
41:30
I, I wouldn't be running to make the bet. I just, that pr- this pricing feels a little off to me where if I had to make a bet, it would be on Minnesota at seven to one.
41:40
If you believe Green Bay beats the Lions, I mean, so much of this comes down to your Thursday night handicap. If you believe, if you believe Green Bay beats the Lions outright- Mm-hmm...
41:48
then it should allow for the possibility of either an Eagles or Packers bet. Yeah, I think in both of these markets, right? When we go, go to AFC, right? Yeah. Drew just kind of mentioned that Bills-Rams game.
41:58
That's big. Um- None of us-... it ki- kind of depends if you like these teams this weekend It really does. None of us mentioned the Vikings, who are also 10 and two. Apologies, Vikings.
42:06
I don't even have you in my top 10 power ranked. I just did. It was the only one I'd bet. If I had to bet right now, it'd be Minnesota. They've got at Detroit to end the season. That, that, and they got at Seattle.
42:16
They got home Green Bay. That's a tough ending to the season, though, besides this Detroit game. They have a, they have a really tough schedule. I, I mean, I don't- Falcons... Fal- Falcons at home, Bears at home.
42:27
I'm not really worried about that. Those are the next two weeks. Excuse me, not, Minnesota doesn't play Detroit this week, but the, they're- Yeah... they close at Seattle, home Green Bay, home Detroit.
42:34
Well, you got seven to one in your pocket- Or at Detroit... with going against, going to those two teams. I don't know. Hmm. Okay. Same record as the Eagles. I don't, that's, I wouldn't make a bet, uh, in the NFC one.
42:44
The AFC- Okay... one I was a little bit more intrigued by. AFC you agree it's a head-to-head between Buffalo and Kansas City? Completely agree. Yes. And a, as much as I, I'm Like, this game this weekend's tough.
42:55
I agree with w- you, what both you and Drew said, that that, I feel like that line's a little off with that Bills-Rams game. I think there's probably a little value on the Rams side.
43:04
Having said all that, can the Chiefs still continue to keep getting lucky? I think there's a little, a little value on the Bills at, uh, at plus 140. The difference here is that the Bills have beaten the Chiefs.
43:14
There is a- Yes... head-to-head here. Uh, there's a head-to-head between the Bills and Chiefs. So the Bills win every tiebreaker, um, based on that alone. Chiefs have a one-game lead over the Bills.
43:25
But if you believe the Bills lose to the Rams this week, or whatever your convictions are this week, right?
43:31
This should then direct you towards, if you wanna make a bet in this market, it should be correlated with what your, uh, your handicap is for this weekend.
43:39
I believe the Bills may lose outright to the Rams, so I would not bet the Bills despite the fact that they have the, the head-to-head. I would stay out of this market.
43:46
And I also think the Chiefs have been unbelievably lucky, um, as most do, and as the sort of luck meters on some of these advanced analytics sites tell you that they have been. But so I, I'm not making a bet here.
43:57
The one thing that I will say, though, is because I believe the Rams may beat the Bills outright, and it's based a lot on that, the, the Rams running back, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, against the Bills defense that basically allows you to run the football.
44:10
Mm-hmm. You know what that will make me do? Bet Lamar Jackson at plus 950 going back to yesterday for MVP. There you go. That was weird, man.
44:18
Even in that Su- that Sunday night game started off weird with both those defenses being like, "All right, we're gonna keep our safeties back." And it was like, "Well, what do you think they're gonna do in the snow?"
44:25
Like, they're gonna run it right at you. The footing was also problematic. But that, that's how I would play that AFC one, is I wouldn't bet the number one seed.
44:34
I actually, if, if I believe, if you believe the Rams beat the Bills, which I do, then you bet Lamar Jackson plus 950, because if the Bills rack up a couple losses down the stretch,
44:46
then it becomes much more even playing field in that department- Right. Yeah... between Lamar and Josh Allen. That's the thinking anyway. That's how I would play that. I agree with that. I agree with that.
44:54
Coming back, Will Hill, all his bets next on the Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
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