Search
Login
Sign Up
Dec 4, 2025
A Numbers Game | December 4, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | December 4, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
47:48
1×
Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:16
Good Thursday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander on a Thursday.
0:28
Believe I said that already, but you know what that means. Zack and Crack, Kelly Midley alongside, birthday boy plus one day. It's finally Thursday. We made it, Gil. We, we made [laughs] We made it.
0:38
The return of football, you mean? With every day- That we can't screw up the day anymore this week. [laughs] Oh, yeah. Someone tw- someone tweeted me this morning, goes, "You missed the game last night." [laughs] What?
0:47
It's like, well done. That's great. It's a great tweet. Uh, Aaron Schatz will join us in, uh, in just a little bit for his, uh, quarterly report on the show.
0:55
He's here once a quarter on a numbers game to give us his, uh, DVOA update, and then he is one of the 50 awards voters in the National Football League, all the awards.
1:05
We'll, uh, get a heat check at the quarter pole from Aaron coming up momentarily. College football, Tim Murray, championship week. We'll get all his thoughts. And, uh, Zack and Crack, Zack Cohen on the NBA and more.
1:16
Giannis thoughts, I'm sure, and beyond. He'll talk NFL with us as well. And Crack, unscripted with the Crack man, Bill Krackomberger. And then in b- in between all that, it says, "Are we sure?"
1:25
And as I look at that, I immediately think to myself, "I'll be sure," is my first thought when I see are we sure. I'll be sure. Speaking of which, how did Kim Porter die? 50 Cent. That wasn't covered in the doc.
1:36
Sorry, just had a brief moment. Finished it. Oh, my God. Did I. Obsc- what a g- what a well-done docuseries. I can't wait to watch it.
1:45
I di- I did sit down to begin it last night, and then got distracted by some BS from- Imag- [laughs] that's just, you were talking off air.
1:52
Imagine hating someone so much that you're like, "I'm gonna make a documentary about this guy." I got, I got a fight with this stand-up comedian. I just...
1:58
One of those, one of those things just randomly popped up on my Instagram. Been telling Gil about the jokes for three days now, but it's just the, it's the... Yes.
2:04
Imagine hating someone so much that, like, 15 years ago, 20 years ago, you're like, "I'm gonna assemble an entire team.
2:11
We're gonna document everything along the way, and then one day we're gonna finally go, we're gonna go and crush this guy." He's, dude's a monster. Monster. This just in. It's fantastic.
2:21
My, uh, my highest recommendation. Uh, let us begin. Real quick before we get into the, uh, the Lions and the Cowboys,
2:26
Giannis last night, and I appreciate everybody who texted me immediately when he fell down to the ground, like, "Hey, what a, we need a r- we need a report."
2:32
He was walking way too smoothly after that for that to have been a Achilles situation. It was... Yeah. Yeah, so it was weird. So, like, I'm watching it live. I'm watching it live. It was certainly weird at first.
2:41
I had money on the Pistons. I took a bla- a blood, a blood bath absolutely in the NBA. What'd you, what'd you take? What'd you take? A bl- [laughs] Okay. All right. Blood bath [laughs], uh, in the NBA yesterday.
2:50
It was not good. I was watching it live though, Gil. It was one of those, when he went down, when he went down and immediately called over medical personnel- Yeah... in the face, I was like, "Oh, no."
3:00
But then, yes, as it went on a little longer- Yeah... he gets up, the teammates help him up, and he's able to at least hobble to the back. Felt a little bit better.
3:08
We're gonna talk a little later on, not scheduled for now- Yeah, we are. Yep... but a little later on which team will Giannis, uh, be on after the trade deadline.
3:15
Because prior to that incident last night of that game, uh, he and the agent got together and, uh, they're like, "Hey, w- w- let's explore a trade." Which I c- you know, we thought this day would come one day.
3:27
Um, the deal with, uh, Giannis is, when players, uh, who just signed a deal, right? He just signed a four-year, $275 million extension with Milwaukee. Um, and
3:40
once you sign a deal in the, in the previous off-season, you cannot be traded before December 15th. So when players across the league who sign the past off-season, that's when they can be moved, December 15th.
3:52
So one thing to keep in mind, eligible to sign a four-year... I'm sorry, eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million extension with Milwaukee or a team he's traded to starting October 1st of 2026. Right.
4:03
And a team trading for him would then need to have the confidence that he will sign an extension with them thereafter. This is all part of the process. But- 'Cause other- otherwise he becomes a free agent in 2027.
4:13
Yeah, this is all part of the process. This is... It, it, it's what makes this way tougher in season. It is all should've, this should've been done multiple times already.
4:21
This i- this is the, a sad story of a star trying to stay as long as possible with a team. They've tried everything they can to, since they've won a championship, of trying to put a c- a competitive team on the floor.
4:33
Everybody would've been better off if Giannis- Yeah... would've left over the off-season. The Bucks would've had more trade partners to work with, would've been able to get more in return. But where are we at now?
4:43
Okay, fine. Giannis wants a trade, we think, even though Doc Rivers is still defending that he has not demanded a trade, not demanded a trade, whatever. They're talking. We know they're talking.
4:52
We know that in August, reports were they were talking to the Knicks, 'cause that is the only place that Giannis Antetokounmpo wants to play for. That's what we heard in August.
5:00
Whether that remains true throughout the cou- entire course of this or not, we'll see.
5:04
The December 15th, uh, deadline is big that you brought that, brought up, because that involves Giannis and then everybody else in the NBA who's u- under those same restrictions, cannot be re- uh, traded until that point too.
5:16
Yeah. So that's really the first time we'll see any movement on this. Um, as you know though, Gil, I'm excited.
5:21
It annoys me, because I love Giannis, and I just wish we would've moved on already and we could've, this could've been over with, and they need to get this over with, but there's a lot of fun teams to still discuss.
5:30
The, the... And we will discuss all of them. Can I just ask one, about one right now? Mm-hmm. The Thunder are not part of this? So the...
5:36
I mean, they are the most fascinating, uh, team, I think, 'cause we're li- in the, in the day and age we're in in the NBA, especially in season with the s- the, the second apron in place now, these trades become so much tougher than what they were just a couple years ago, five years ago, 10 years ago.
5:52
The Oklahoma City Thunder, and there's a couple other teams like this, but nobody like the Thunder. The assets that they have could pull off this trade and make it relatively easy.
6:02
Right, but do you mess with what you have? Why would you?
6:05
Because, uh, uh, and then we get back to the question that people are betting on, right, that Will brought up initially, Will Hill, uh, their chances of getting to 70 or 74 to me would be diminished somehow- There is-...
6:16
if you change the alchemy of a team. Okay, love that you put it that way, 'cause I, I agree with that. Does it increase your per- it increase use, your chances at winning a championship, though? Maybe.
6:27
I think it probably does. Maybe. So I think the real question is, Gil, whether, with OKC, whether they'll be in or out on this, is how much of a scare do they feel like they got in last year's championship run?
6:39
But I, I kinda think that why... You still want a championship. You got the pieces in place. You've got all these assets for the future. I don't know why, if you're OKC, why you'd go do that.
6:48
This l- this league is, is more interesting for what happens off the court than it is from- It's, it's the best reality TV show on the planet, man. It's unbelievable.
6:56
Uh, all right, Lions and Cowboys, week 14 of the National Football League kicks off tonight. What has it been, 72 hours by the time that kicks off that we have another game? That's uns- unacceptable. Unacceptable.
7:06
Cowboys and Lions, one of a bunch of games this week that has massive implications for both teams participating, win or loss.
7:14
And in this case, it's not a, again, it's not an elimination game by the letter of the law, but man, um, it'll be a setback.
7:24
I think it'll be more of a setback for the Lions because the Cowboys' schedule's cake after this, right?
7:29
If the Cowboys win this, they are golden moving forward, whereas, uh, I don't think the Li- uh, whereas I think if, you know, if they lose they still have that kind of, uh, runway to get into the postseason.
7:41
I'm not sure about the Lions. They lose, they're in big trouble at this point, and the Lions are going to be without a...
7:48
Well, first of all, let me just, let me give the, the trend that everybody's been giving it out about, you know, all year long about the Lions under Dan Campbell.
7:55
When they lose a football game, they come back and they are 14 and 0 straight up, 13 and 1 against the spread following losses since November of 2022. 14 and 0 straight up. Yeah.
8:09
13 and 1 against the spread following losses since November 2022. However, to quote, uh, Stephen A., however, they're missing Sam LaPorta.
8:18
They're missing their two backup tight ends, Brock Wright and, uh, and, uh, uh, also Shane Zils- Zylstra. Amon-Ra St. Brown out tonight. The Lions offense- We're official on that? On Amon-Ra? Uh, are, are we official?
8:33
I don't think we're official yet. We're not official. Doubt- doubtful is what I'm saying. Doubtful. But. Okay. We're doubtful. Pardon me. We're doubtful on that.
8:40
I, but, like- But w- on defense- I'd be shocked if he- I'll tell you what we are official on. On defense we have no Kirby Joseph, we got no Terrion Arnold. Yep. Right? Brian Branch is banged up.
8:50
Back to offense, um, their center, Graham Glasgow, is banged up. I don't know if they... I, we don't know if they're going either. They're questionable.
8:57
There, there's four starting offensive linemen that are questionable right now for this game tonight. So I mean, they are just the mash, the proverbial mash unit in this.
9:05
Their offense has averaged just 22.3 points per game in the last three weeks, and we just mentioned the pl- the players that now additionally could be out.
9:13
It also doesn't help that their defense has given up nine passing touchdowns, 237 passing yards per game, and a 105.6 quarterback rating over the last month. Uh, the Detroit defense top 10 against the...
9:27
They're 10th exact. A top 10 team in EPA per rush, but just 16th in EPA per pass allowed. And Dallas we know loves throwing the ball around the yard.
9:38
Lions rank 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt over their last three games, and Dallas ranks second offensively in that category. Since Dallas acquired Quinnen Williams, that was week 11.
9:52
This is, uh, from Zach, Zach Cohen's article, uh, at vsin.com. Zach will join us later on talking about the game. So the Cowboys have an EPA per play allowed of 0.00.
10:01
That doesn't sound like much, but what that is is an improvement to middle of the pack. And when you throw a middle of the pack defense in with a really good offense, now all of a sudden you're talking. Mm-hmm.
10:13
And so, uh, by the way, a major improvement over the team's season long mark of 0.131. In fact, over the course of the entire season, again, that would be a 15th best mark in the NFL.
10:24
So Cowboys, um, they have a rush EPA per play allowed of minus 0.139, which means they've been excellent slowing down opposing running backs, which again, when you don't have receivers- Yeah...
10:36
on the field, becomes a huge thing against the Jahmyr Gibbs, you know, focused offense. Yep. Gibbs and Montgomery, yep. All right. I, I- You, you could be leaning a lot on them.
10:47
I mean, so all those things, you throw that in the mix. I mean, people like to say, and it's true, right?
10:50
Marco D'Angelo used to say on the, on the Megapod all the time, "You're never as good as you looked the previous week or as bad as you looked the previous week." But if you don't have bodies- Mm-hmm... right?
10:59
'Cause, 'cause that's, then it, then it feels like, you know, you would lead to that, "Well, this'll be a bounce back for Detroit. We just cited the stats about how they perform after a loss since November 22nd.
11:09
Cowboys can't look any better. They just beat the Eagles and the, uh, Chiefs back to back. Um, can't look any better than they looked." But yeah, but if you don't have your, your personnel- Yeah...
11:21
that's a whole different calculus. Yeah, I'm with you. And that's the deal. Cowboys favored by three. Excuse me, uh, Lions favored by three headed into tonight's game. You still going, uh, with the total?
11:29
I, I think the, I think the side's about right at this point. I know they opened up higher than that and has been trickling down to this three. I think that number's about right, Gil. We have futures.
11:38
I'm gonna sit on the sideline- Yeah... and just root for those. Me too. I, I will be in on the under at some point. I'm just not rushing. It's 54 and a half. We'll see if it goes up a little bit more.
11:46
Bill 80 this morning, uh, talking about playoff chances. With wins, Lions chances improve 59%, drop to 22% with a loss. Cowboys 31% to 6%. Yeah. I don't buy that Cowboys though. Coming back, Aaron Shaw.
12:02
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
12:05
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer Make a smart buy on the off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
12:18
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
12:24
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
12:31
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
12:40
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
12:49
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
13:01
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna start s- uh, wanna bet smarter, rather? Start with smarter insights right now.
13:15
You can check out Greg Peterson's college basketball top plays, all nine conference championship game previews in college football.
13:22
Dave Tooley's NFL week 14 takes, and later today you can check out Zach Cohen's NBA picks and props, Jonathan Davis' NHL top plays, and NFL week 14 first touchdown score picks. People love those.
13:33
We have our extended Black Friday special until Sunday. Get full access to everything we do until May the 1st for only $60. That's May the 1st of 2026. Go to vsin.com/subscribe. Do it now. You will not be sorry.
13:46
We got tweets @BeatingTheBook, always appreciate the feedback. Uh, Tenaloch from Australia, "Happy birthday," Kelly says, "Cheers to you, mate.
13:54
After, uh, Cash, uh, Denver over nine-and-a-half wins, wanted to reinvest portion on a future bet.
13:59
You guys and Drew, plus Clepe TA tweet, put me on Pickens, Offensive Player of the Year at 76 to one, and I like the Cowboys making the conference final at 15 to one." Actionable info from down under. He's hitting us up.
14:11
Thank you, Tenaloch, appreciate that. Jesse Welch on the Deep Dive pod yesterday. Were you aware of this? Andy Molator gave Kelly a birthday shout-out. I did not. Was not.
14:19
And tot- totally guessed his age exactly dead on. Impressive by Andy. I did not catch yesterday. I will catch today. There you go. Ah. The, uh, the Wednesday Deep Dive is a staple in my listening, for sure.
14:29
It's total staple. And Rob L., Rob L.'s hitting on the, uh, the pulse of sports betting this morning. He said, "Are the rumors true? Did Fezzik's report Wishnev's Telegram group for being way too profitable?
14:40
Hearing lots of speculation that Stevie was in a jealous rage and made it his mission to get Todd banned." No, it wasn't Stevie. We, uh, we've identified that it's a, uh, one of the, one of the books that, uh...
14:52
One, one of the skins- It's no fun... that got beat up pretty good, got in there and, uh, sent it down. That's a shame. We'll get a workaround going.
15:00
Uh, Brian Schaefer31, "Gill in that Diddy doc when the male escort was revealing everything that went on, mind-blowing, and actually sick what Diddy made Cassidy drink afterwards."
15:09
The whole thing is, the whole thing's awful. Shrek McFee, "At what point does the OKC record seem profitable? 35 and two? It would take several major injuries for them to lose seven more games.
15:18
Young, hungry, and al- already with a ring, why not go for the record? Sounds insane, but 53 and seven rest of the season seems like the floor, lol." Yeah, we've talked about it in those terms as well. It's crazy.
15:28
It's just such a thin margin. It is. It's, uh, like I said, if they have a week where they lose twice- Yeah... all of a sudden you're behind the eight ball. Right, you feel... You're gonna feel terrible. Yeah. Yeah.
15:38
Let's talk some football.
15:39
He is kind enough to join us not only on the Megapod once a year, but every quarter during the NFL season to talk about DVOA, to talk about awards, 'cause he's one of the 50 AP voters on all those awards.
15:49
He's the chief analytics officer at FTN Sports. He's also the creator of DVOA. It's our friend Aaron Schatz joining us now, courtesy of the Progressive Gasline from New England, is where he comes to us.
15:59
How you doing, Aaron? Good morning. Hey. I'm doing good, guys. It's cold here. [laughs] It's... [laughs] Give a, give us a sense of how cold. What are we talking?
16:08
Oh, not as cold as it's gonna be this weekend in, like, Buffalo, but it's cold. We're, we're below 30. Kelly, would you like to share your, your temperature complaints for earlier this week?
16:15
Yeah, it, it's a pretty brutal morning out here as well. I think it was 47 when I got in the car. Whoo. It's pretty brutal. We're, we're gonna make it through, though.
16:22
He's ga- gaining fans all week with his wea- with his weather complaints. [laughs] Uh, all right, let's start with this, Aaron. Uh, first of all, where can folks get your stuff at FTN Sports? Where do they go?
16:31
Yeah, it's ftnfantasy.com, and you wanna definitely check out the GOAT subscription to get all of our, uh, lead- leading fantasy projections, as well as betting advice and all the DVOA stats, including, you know, with scouting categories like, uh, one high versus two high, and man versus zone, and we have all that kind of stuff.
16:53
All that kind of stuff. And by the way, again, DVOA, analyzing football on a granular g- granular level, pardon me, play-by-play since s- 1978. That's how far back, uh, Aaron and the crew has gone.
17:05
Uh, okay, I wanna ask you about certain teams. I won't... You know, Seattle's number one in DVOA, overall DVOA. The Rams are second.
17:12
Uh, let me ask you about, let me cherry-pick some other teams, 'cause I know there's a, there are fans of other teams, there are betters, futures betters for other teams, and I'm curious how you, uh, how you explain some of these positions.
17:23
The Colts are still third. Where... What is the, uh, what is the key to that ranking, would you say? That they were so high before the last few games. Uh, th- their offense has really fallen off in the last four games.
17:36
So they... Yeah. So their, their offense is slightly below average in the last four games. So they were so good before that, that they're still really good for the season as a whole. It...
17:46
There's really a question here of how many games do you think is really important.
17:50
I tend to take a longer view of things, which is more than just four games for how good a team is, but there's no question that the Colts have fallen off on offense. Uh, Texans are eighth, Niners are 10th.
18:01
That's interesting. Texans driven by defense, I would imagine? Yeah, the Texans are two, defense. Their offense is not as bad as you think. It's a, like minus 4%, so it's 24th.
18:16
Uh, but, uh, their defense is as good as you think. Uh, Seattle passed them this week with that incredible game against Brosmer. But, uh, yeah, Houston's defense is really good.
18:26
49ers have just really overcome all the injuries. Their defense really fell apart when they lost guys like Warner and Bosa for the season. But their offense, even with Mac Jones, was pretty good.
18:36
And then with Purdy, it's been pretty good. So the 49ers are pretty good. The ni- that is amazing, the o- the overcoming of those huge injuries on defense.
18:45
Uh, let's go a little further down the list, 'cause I'm curious about these, and I think most people would be curious about these. You are a fan. People, we've talked about this before.
18:51
You're a fan of the New England Patriots, so this is the year where no one can ever accuse you of fan bias in your DVOA rankings. I know that's been a thing through the years. You just love the Patriots.
19:02
Well, you have them 14th still, uh, and that's a, that's a step up- Yeah... after their win over the Giants. Why only 14th? Is it the schedule? It's mostly the schedule. There's some other things.
19:14
They've been very good on fourth down, and I tend to underplay fourth down a little bit compared to other advanced stats because while fourth downs are very important, they're not as predictive.
19:25
Th- they have more importance than they have predictive ability. So, uh, their schedule is gonna end up being, like, the fifth or sixth easiest schedule that I've ever measured.
19:37
Uh, they have beaten a grand total of one team that rank higher than them- Hmm... which is Buffalo. And they play, in the rest of the season, a grand total of one team that ranks higher than them, which is Buffalo.
19:50
[laughs] Okay. So there's that. Yeah. Um, yeah. Okay, so with the- I mean, I'm enjoying this. Listen, the funny thing, this doesn't take away from my enjoyment. I'm not, like, rooting against them. I think it's fabulous.
20:02
I'm having so much fun as a Patriots fan this year, but they're not as good as their record.
20:07
I remember distinctly asking you, and for s- for whatever reason, certain comments land on you, and they stick with you, and I remember asking you about Drake May last year, at the end of last year.
20:15
And you said, "We have the guy." You were very confident. I remember that was- Yeah... your phrase, "We have the guy." And I remember at the time being like, "Really? You do?" You, but, 'cause that was maybe, right?
20:24
It was Drake maybe at that point. But you were confident even then. Um, let's talk about the team- Given his age, there is not another quarterback in the league I would want more than Drake May right now...
20:34
AFC North, Ravens and Steelers. You got the Steelers 13th and the Ravens 18th. What's the differentiator there? Uh, the games without Lamar Jackson. Oh, that's it.
20:46
If you take out the games without Lamar Jackson, they're, they're, they're basically neck and neck. The Ravens would be slightly ahead. Uh, but then at the same time, Jackson has not played well the last three games.
20:56
He's hurt, and the funny thing is, I went back, and I re-watched the Thanksgiving game, and I don't think that it comes out in running.
21:03
I think that it comes out in, uh, lack of accuracy on passing, 'cause I think his passing mechanics are off because of his foot. He's got a toe injury.
21:13
Uh, and so that, I don't know what the Ravens have going forward because I don't know how healthy Jackson is gonna be. By the way, that completely tracks.
21:20
I don't know if I said this on air or where, where I said it, but for all the, you know, great plays that he'll make, and they, and they still happen every once in a while, and the announcers gush over it, some of those passes are woefully inaccurate, and it does remind me, right, when RG III got hurt, how his mechanics just disappeared after that.
21:39
Um, obviously Lamar having more- Yeah, it's very different. I mean, historically, Jackson has been a fantastic pocket quarterback.
21:45
People think of him running, but in the pocket, he, you know, last year was amazingly good. Uh, this year, just not. Okay. The number one seed in the NFC currently is the Chicago Bears.
21:57
You have them, uh, overall 19th in the league. 19 out of 32 overall DVOA. I don't know if you know the answer to this question, Aaron, but I'm, I'm always fascinated by the historicals.
22:08
Is, is this the l- the lowest this late in a season a number one seed has been? I think so. The lowest number one seed by DVOA was the Titans four years ago. Oh, I remember them well.
22:22
And I believe that the Bears are lower than them right now.
22:25
Now, if the Bears actually get the number one seed, they'll end up higher than this probably, because it probably means they play well over their last five games, and so their rating will go up.
22:35
But they have played the second easiest schedule in the league.
22:38
Only the Patriots have played an easier schedule, and they've had a lot of takeaways, including really good luck on fumble recoveries, which are fairly random, and takeaways are less predictive than yards and first downs.
22:53
That is- It's another reason why- Yeah...
22:54
we have the Seahawks so high, 'cause the Seahawks have had a lot of turnovers, but that's not necessarily of the future as all the yards and first downs they've had in their passing game.
23:03
Uh, the other thing that, that you noted in your, uh, weekly article, by the way, and these are all available for even, even if you're not a subscriber, these are available, uh, for free, is the special teams, the historical special teams where the Jets have one of the top five best ever, and I believe it's the Browns that have one of the 14 worst.
23:22
What, what is your breakdown- Yeah... in terms of offense, defense, and special teams, just to put that in context? So the way it works is that special teams is, um,
23:32
is put on a range so that when you add it to offense and defense, you get the closest to wins that you possibly can get.
23:41
So when you do that, and you look at the range of possibilities, you end up with football basically being four parts offense, three parts defense, and one part special teams. Okay.
23:53
So special teams is not one-third of the game. Gotcha. It's more like one-eighth of the game. I like it. All right. Aaron's a voter on the awards. We'll talk about that next.
24:01
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on A Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander. That's my little buddy Kelly Bidley over there to my left.
24:19
People love, it's funny, when you talk anything Giannis before- Mm-hmm... people love chiming in. Brad Magnus on Twitter, "As a lifelong Bucks fan, I'd hate to see him go. I don't want KAT and OG amongst picks.
24:29
What does that do for us? This all fell apart with the Bucks overpaying Middleton, then acquired Dame for Jrue. Kuzma's overpaid and has no value. It all sucks." That's his standpoint from a- Yeah...
24:39
Bucks fan standpoint. Then there's Ryan Thompson, who believes, he says, "NBA media has wanted Giannis out of Milwaukee for about seven years. Maybe they finally get their wish, but it's gross and bad for the sport.
24:50
Warriors have been in a similar spot to the Bucks the past few years, yet no Kevin Curry win here or trade narrative." Yeah, 'cause the Warriors are always competitive.
25:00
They've done a better job than the Bucks of surrounding Steph Curry with talent to make that not as much of a conversation. Yeah. There you go.
25:07
Aaron Schatz kind enough to join us for our second segment here, talking, uh, all things DVOA and all things awards. Before we get into the awards, Aaron, by the way, thanks for, uh, sticking around here again.
25:16
Um, uh, we talked, we just summed up that previous segment off air. Can you give your sort of general, then, 2025 analysis thus far through three quarters of the year?
25:27
Yeah, I was gonna say my numbers like the Rams and Seahawks a little bit better than the market. But for the most part, I'm in agreement with the market. This is anybody's year.
25:37
I don't remember another year where I had teams with really good records have bad DVOA and teams with, you know, unconvincing records, like the Lions and Chiefs, that are really good in DVOA.
25:48
It's a very topsy-turvy year. Very topsy-turvy.
25:50
And of course, those, the, the culprits of the, the good record and the not so great rankings, the Patriots at 14, the Bears at 19, and even the Panthers, right, at 25 with a winning record, I guess- Yep...
26:01
we should throw them in. All right. Regular season MVP, let us start there. Aaron is one of 50 AP voters on these awards. He has been for many years.
26:09
Kelly, uh, Matt Brown, and I, Matt Brown was the, uh, mega podcast, uh, this year. We, uh, in fact, were with Aaron the night that Lamar was not unanimous, and we were with Aaron.
26:19
Aaron was the one in, who had to cast the vote, uh, for Josh Allen. The previous year, he was the guy stumping for, um, Lamar more than everybody else. I believe I have that right.
26:28
Uh, this year- Or the other way around... other way around. Last year I was stumping for Lamar. Correct. Other way around. I'm sorry. Yeah. All right. Regular season MVP this year.
26:35
Drake May, the aforementioned, minus 135. He's the favorite. Matthew Stafford's plus 125. Everybody else is 14 to one or longer, starting with Dak.
26:46
We can't really get your thoughts on this after the season, so this is our last chance to really pick your brain about this. What are you thinking? Dak Prescott leads the league in almost every advanced metric.
26:58
[laughs] Mike's stats, uh, ESPN QBR, uh, adjusted EPA that Kevin Cole does, adjusted EPA that Ben Baldwin does. Prescott leads the league in all of them. The question is, what happens over the next five weeks?
27:13
Can Prescott pro- possibly get the storyline going enough to become one of the, you know, up there with May and Stafford as far as being a candidate?
27:24
He'd have to get Dallas into the playoffs and play really well over the next five weeks, but it's not his fault that their defense was so horrifyingly bad over the first half of the season. That's right.
27:34
By the way, we don't know what the other 49 voters are thinking, but this is one, one voter's 2% of the voting class. This, uh, these are his thoughts on that. Read into it what you will. Okay.
27:44
Offensive Player of the Year. This looked like it was Jonathan Taylor in a runaway. Not such a runaway anymore. Uh, he's minus 120. Jackson Smith-Njigba is almost a coin flip with him. He's minus 105.
27:56
Then it's McCaffrey, who really is, you know, he keeps, career-wise, trying to, to break records. 14 and w- uh, 14 to one. Everybody else, real big long shots. What are you thinking here?
28:11
Yeah, I think McCaffrey doesn't have the rushing value to win this. He's got all that receiving, but he really hasn't been that good as a runner this year.
28:19
Uh, Pickens is really interesting at 80 to one because he's, like, my number two wide receiver this year, and what if he goes nuts over the last five weeks of the season?
28:27
But otherwise, yeah, it's Taylor and Smith-Njigba head, head-to-head, right? All right. They're, they're the top two guys.
28:33
And Aaron, once again, one of these, one of the, uh, voters, we don't know how many feel this way, but you are a guy who will not vote for a quarterback on principle for Offensive Player of the Year.
28:44
I'm gonna ask, by the way, if your, um, e- uh, tech guys can, uh, raise your volume a little bit. I'm having a hard time hearing you. Oh, okay. We'll do that. Sorry about that. All right.
28:53
But, uh, yes, ask the question again. No, that you are, you, you're on record as saying MVP for you, because the way you view football through analytics, that's a quarterback award barring some- Yes...
29:03
weird kind of thing. And Offensive Player of the Year is your non-quarterback award on, on offense. Yeah, I don't like the idea of giving Offensive Player of the Year to the second-best quarterback.
29:14
I think that's kinda silly. Okay. And you have no sense of how many of the voters feel that same way? No sense of that? Yeah, I, it's gotta be another position.
29:24
Now, what would be interesting would be voting for an offensive lineman for the award, but now they have their own award. [laughs] Okay. All right, let's go to what's next, guys. Let's go to Offensive Rookie of the Year.
29:34
Tetairoa McMillan of the Panthers, plus 115. Jaxson Dart, who if he starts the rest of the way, will have started 12 games this year for the two-win Giants. Emeka Egbuka has fallen back a little bit to three to one.
29:47
Tyler Warren has been lurking all year at plus 550. What do you think here? Yeah, McMillan's definitely come on. Dart being injured was not a help. I think this is still very up in the air.
30:00
I think based on the last five weeks of the season, this could go a lot of different directions, including Henderson, if he has more explosive runs. He's had that one game. He had that one game against the Buccaneers.
30:10
If he has a couple more like that and they, you know, win the number one seed, he could be interesting. But, uh, yeah, th- this, this one's still pretty up in the air. Manungai?
30:19
Manungai at 90 to one is not a thing in your opinion? If they do really well in the next five weeks, that's a really interesting, that would be a really interesting long shot bet, yeah. Okay.
30:31
Comeback Player of the Year, and you know the rules, right? You can't come back from sucking, I believe is the actual terminology used by, uh- Yes... used by the voting block.
30:41
Um, what are you thinking here for Comeback Player of the Year? It's McCaffrey or Dak. Yeah. Dak. They're currently minus 170. It's McCaffrey or Dak. McCaffrey plus 130 are the odds right now. Okay.
30:54
Aaron, greatest Comeback Player of the Year race we've had in a long time. I, I'm enjoying it. It's pretty good. Yeah, I mean, I...
31:01
Look, unlike MVP, I don't think you sh- have to vote for a quarterback because it's, Comeback Player of the Year is more value compared to your position rather than total value.
31:11
So I think McCaffrey very much has a, has a good, good chance at it. All right. Defensive Player of the Year, this is Myles Garrett, nobody else at this point? Yep. Oh, yeah.
31:20
I can't imagine anyone else is gonna catch him. Yeah. Right now, by the way, he's minus 1400, for God sakes. I didn't realize he had drifted that far up. Still not a bad bet. Still [laughs] still maybe not a bad bet.
31:30
Myles Garrett. He's gonna break the all-time sacks record. Right. Yep. Looks that way. Looks that way. It's amazing, 'cause there's a lot of great... I mean, Will Anderson Jr.'s having a great year.
31:38
Nick Benito's having a great year, but they, they just have no shot at this. Uh, Defensive Rookie of the Year, Carson Schwesinger of the, uh, Browns has really gone out to the big lead here in the market, minus 700.
31:50
Does that track with your thinking? I, I honestly haven't thought about that one, this, this one that much, to be perfectly honest. I know that a lot of people are real believers in Schwesinger.
32:01
Um, the Abdul Carter thing, you know, he's got all these pressures, but he only has one and a half sacks, and he keeps getting, like, uh, put on the bench because he's watching porn during meetings or whatever the story was.
32:13
[laughs] Yeah. Like, that's kind of weird. So I, I guess, you know, Schwesinger definitely is the leader, but I haven't thought about this one that much. There, there really...
32:22
No, no disrespect to Schwesinger, there's no outstanding, like, really standout rookie defender this year. Yeah. By the way, one clarification, Aaron, and one, one correction.
32:32
Uh, it's not watching porn in, in, in meetings. It's watching porn with the sound on. I wanna be clear about that. [laughs] Those are the rules of the meeting. Oh, okay. [laughs] Yeah. All right, Coach of the Year.
32:41
Now, this, this to me is the most fascinating, because I think you can make a case for multiple here, but for whatever reason, and we don't know if this is a reflection of the reali- of reality, right? We haven't polled.
32:53
The betting market has not polled all 50 voters, including yourself. But right now, the betting market says Mike Vrabel's minus 270.
33:00
Ben Johnson of the Bears, again, the number o- current number one seed Bears is plus 275. Mike McDonald, what has he done wrong, uh, of the Seahawks, plus 650. And Shane Steichen is the, is the big drop, right?
33:11
He's gone all the way down to 22 to one. He was sort of co-favorites with Vrabel for most of the year. Uh, and then you see Kyle Shanahan, everybody else, 25 to one or longer.
33:20
What do you believe right now is the vote for you, or the thinking, anyway?
33:28
I mean, I'll tell you, this is always the hardest, uh, award to vote on, because it's very subjective, and there's always lots of good candidates.
33:36
I'm only one voter, but right now I would vote for McDonald, because the Seahawks excel on the side of the ball that is his side, which is defense. They're the number one defense. He's a defensive head coach.
33:48
But Vrabel probably is the leader right now when it comes to, like, thinking about how all 50 of us are thinking. Kelly and I both have Mike McDonald bets, and, uh, we just got a little chesty right there after- Yeah...
33:59
th- those comments. We didn't air high-five or anything right after that move. No, no, that didn't happen. [laughs] Um, that's interesting. Very interesting.
34:06
Um, because I, I, I really do think we may not know the answer. As you say, w- let's see what happens down the stretch here, these last five games. I mean, if the Seahawks get the one seed and the Patriots don't,
34:17
you know, McDonald could win it. Yep. Yep. That was... I mean, this is the, we finally saw a major move towards Va- Vrabel after Monday Night Football.
34:25
That's right, and, and Steichen is the real dropper right there in that category. Mm-hmm. Uh, Aaron, one more re- uh, reminder for folks where they can get all your stuff? Absolutely. Ftnfantasy.com is the website.
34:37
Like I said, award-winning fantasy projections, betting advice, all the DVOA stats are there. I'm on X, and I'm on Bluesky at aaronschatz.com. And on Twitter at ASchatz, S-C-H-A-T-Z, ASchatzNFL as well. Yep.
34:53
Aaron, always a pleasure. Thank you so much for, uh, revealing all that you could at this point. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
35:04
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
35:09
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
35:17
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
35:23
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
35:30
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
35:39
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
35:48
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
36:00
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Congratulations are in order, Kelly, Billy. Who we got?
36:18
What else do you say in order about, by the way, except for congratulations? Congratulations are in order to Average Joe weekly winner Philip Purdy. Relation- Yeah, Phil... relation to Brock? I don't know.
36:28
We had 17 people with a perfect 7 and 0 record for week 13. Philip gets it on the tiebreaker. Every week you could jump into the contest by making seven picks, NFL or college, and the top score takes home $500.
36:39
Win it with an Edge Boost account and that payout doubles to $1,000.
36:42
And don't forget, each quarter one winner gets the ultimate prize, airfare for two to Vegas, a two-night stay at Circa Resort and Casino, and an in-studio guest appearance on a VSiN show.
36:51
Free to enter anytime at vsin.com/joe. That's V-S-I-N.com/joe. Mazel tov to him. Johnny B on Twitter, "My, uh, college football thoughts, all assuming BYU loses."
37:03
Yes, you have to assume that before you go into your, uh, your permutations of this. He says, "If Georgia wins, Notre Dame makes the playoff. We'll put, uh, order Notre Dame, Bama, Miami."
37:13
He says, "If Bama wins, Miami makes the playoff. Put in Miami over Notre Dame. They'll be next to each other in rankings." I'll stick by what I said, what I said yesterday.
37:21
I have a feeling Notre Dame's in trouble either way. We'll get Tim's thoughts on that momentarily. Parlay Pete, "DVOA gets clowned because casuals see Seattle number four and laugh." They're number two, by the way.
37:31
"Uh, sharp money uses it differently, finding edges the market hasn't caught. That's not glamorous, but it's profitable."
37:36
That's the whole point of it, by the way, for bettors, is to put things in context and to maybe make you think of teams differently than you might have. Chris Heath, "Get that man some earbuds." Talking about, uh, Aaron.
37:45
[laughs] And Jason H11, "Congrats to Gilly for getting through an entire DVOA segment and not bringing up the Washington Redskins or Joe Jackson Gibbs. Well done."
37:53
Oh, you mean the '91 Washington Redskins, the greatest DVOA team of all time? Thanks, Jason. Thanks for reminding me. Yeah. My oversight. That tweet didn't work. Mike Al- Or it did work, I don't know...
38:02
Mike Alvarez, "If watching porn with the sound on is frowned upon, I really wish somebody would've mentioned it. I gotta plead ignorant on this." Yeah. I thought that was the best correction made on, during that segment.
38:10
[laughs] Uh, Tim Murray joins us now. He's the, uh, host of VSiN Prime Time. Ooh.
38:15
He's the host of the College Football Tailgate show on the weekend here, and of course, the host of the College Football Betting Podcast, which he does three times a week, including one that drops like an album.
38:24
It drops today. drops. He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line at one, that's the number one, Tim Murray. Tim, what a week we got. We do. Yeah, conference championship week.
38:34
Is there any, um, is there any controversy with the rankings? I haven't heard. [laughs] Well, you are an, uh, you are a Fighting Irish guy. Um- I am...
38:43
I was talking about this on Monday, and I was talking about the disaster scenario where BYU wins, and I don't think anybody in college football media got that right Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday leading up to it.
38:54
But let's say they lose. Now d- I, I guess my theory the other day was, okay, N- Notre Dame and Miami's ranking getting sort of cozied up against each other now. Mm-hmm.
39:06
The second to last ranking, where only BYU's in between them, BYU win or loss is not gonna be in between them afterwards. I feel like the committee's setting it up to, uh, blast Notre Dame out of this. You? Uh, yeah.
39:19
I mean, look, I'm generally more pessimistic about Notre Dame than, uh, than [laughs] optimistic. But yeah, it does feel like...
39:26
Look, uh, I know there's been many columns and many, uh, talking heads talking about this, and, you know, in, in, in reality it's probably good for the sport that college football is on the forefront, uh, with this controversial situation with Notre Dame and Miami.
39:43
But, you know, I opened the college football podcast the other day about it, and I, I kind of echoed the sentiments of the person who just tweeted in.
39:51
I think the situation, in my opinion, that they've set up, if Alabama were to lose to Georgia, I think, and this is just my gut, I think Notre Dame is safer.
40:04
But I think the scenario that you painted where Alabama beats Georgia, BYU gets, uh, loses to Texas Tech, I think Notre Dame's in some trouble.
40:14
Because they don't want, Notre Dame that is, Miami to be next to them in the final rankings. I think ultimately that's when they pop them over. Look, it's been, uh, hypocritical the whole way through.
40:26
No one has any idea how this is all gonna play out. When you, uh... When Bruce Feldman starts dropping F-bombs on Twitter, we know we've got to a dark place- [laughs]... with these college football playoff rankings.
40:37
But, uh, we'll, we'll see how it all plays out. Um, you know, I, I've said it, I think I said it on your show a couple weeks ago. Look, I'm a Notre Dame fan. Of course I want Notre Dame to be in the playoff.
40:46
But am I gonna cry if Miami gets in over Notre Dame? Of course not. You, you lose two games, you kind of put yourself into the hands of the committee, and the same goes for Miami. I get it. You beat Notre Dame.
40:57
You also lost to Louisville. You lost to SMU. So you put yourself in this situation.
41:04
You know, I think the funniest part about this whole thing, and this is more sports talky than it is betting, but Miami, in a year that the ACC is probably the weakest maybe it's ever been, they couldn't even get into [laughs] the ACC Championship.
41:18
But the ACC needs to look at themselves with these tiebreakers and say, "We gotta fix this," because it's ridiculous that a seven and five Duke team with a six and two conference record with no wins over any above 500 ACC team is in the ACC Championship on Saturday night.
41:36
I do, uh, uh, add this one last wrinkle. If Duke beats Virginia, I also think that's bad for Notre Dame, because I don't think the, uh, College Football Playoff Committee wants to shut out a Power Four conference.
41:48
So we'll see how this all plays out. It's a big cluster. Uh, I hope Notre Dame gets in because I'm a fan. I've got a future on them at 30 to 1.
41:56
And I do think, Gil, at the end of the day, you know, if you look at power ratings and everything out there, I think they're a top three football team right now.
42:03
But you lost two games, and because of that you gotta wait and see what the committee's gonna do with you on, uh, on Sunday. All right, let's try to go through these quickly.
42:11
Let's start with the SEC Championship with Alabama and Georgia. Um, they're taking it seriously. Georgia is. Kirby Smart is. Alabama is. Georgia's a three-point favorite. What do you think about this game?
42:23
Yeah, I, I like Georgia. It was the first bet I made of the week. Uh, I took minus 20, uh, on, uh, Sunday on the money line. The money line has continued to rise, minus 35 now.
42:32
I just, I personally, I hate laying two and a half, because if you somehow some way get into- Triple overtime, now you're sweating out a situation where you're not gonna win because you laid two and a half and you get that two-point conversion off.
42:45
But, um, you know, Georgia did not play well last week against Georgia Tech, Gil. But I- I'm not gonna say that they mailed it in against a rival, but they kinda mailed it in against a rival.
42:54
Um, and, you know, the post-game win expectancy I think was, like, 16 or 17%, something like that for Georgia.
43:00
But I have not been in love with Alabama, even though the committee, by the way, was very impressed by their 27-20 win- [laughs]... over five and seven Auburn. Sure were. I was not overly impressed- Yes...
43:12
by that 27-20 win over a team that is not going to a bowl game. But, you know, it's a rivalry game, and it was a gutsy call by Kalen DeBoer on fourth down. [laughs] That's why they jumped from 10 to number nine.
43:23
But I think Georgia gets their revenge here. Uh, you know, it's interesting looking at the point spreads of the rematches, what they were the first time and what they are now.
43:32
Georgia was a two-and-a-half point favorite at home back on September 27th. They're a two-and-a-half favorite, uh, point favorite on a neutral, uh, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. I like the way Georgia's been playing.
43:43
I like the way they've been running the ball lately. And, uh, I'll take the Bulldogs here to knock off the Tide. Kirby Smart, he has a bit of an Alabama problem, though, Gil.
43:51
He's just one and seven as the head coach of the Bulldogs against Alabama. So certainly that crept into my li- mind a little bit, but I just like the form of Georgia more so than Alabama right now.
44:02
Yeah, two and a half extra juice, the consensus right now on that one. Um, and then what about the Big 12 Championship, right?
44:08
BYU is the, the team that can throw all of this into complete mayhem, but they're 12-and-a-half point dogs against the only team they've lost to all year in Texas Tech. How do you think this one goes?
44:19
I mean, I, I think back to the rematch, and I, I mean, I loved Texas Tech in that spot, and the market did too. That thing got bet up from, I think, nine and a half all the way up to 13, 13 and a half.
44:30
And the 29-7 score, Gil, wasn't even indicative of the pure dominance by Texas Tech. They had some red zone failures in that game, settled for, I believe, five field goals.
44:42
They forced a bunch of turnovers, Texas Tech did in that spot.
44:45
I think, obviously, you're gonna get an inspired BYU team, not only fighting for an opportunity to go to the College Football Playoff, which would, uh, eliminate, as you pointed out, Miami and Notre Dame if BYU were to win this game on Saturday, but you got the added bonus of Kalani Sitake's not going anywhere.
45:01
So you got that juice. I just, I don't think BYU is up to the caliber of Texas Tech. I'm not laying 12 and a half. Uh, I do think if you like player props, I'm curious if L.J.
45:12
Reed, the running back for BYU, is gonna be able to eclipse 17 and a half rushing yards.
45:17
Only one running back this year has gone north of that number, and actually it wasn't even a running back, it was Avery Johnson, the quarterback for Kansas State. This is a stout front for Texas Tech.
45:27
So I'm trying to think of creative ways to bet this game. I think L.J. Reed under 17 and a half is what I saw at FanDuel. That would probably be the way I would look to bet this game here. Uh, L.J.
45:39
Martin, I beg your pardon, the running back for BYU. So, uh, I just, this defense is absolutely loaded.
45:45
Texas Tech, Gil, I mean, th- they're fourth in the country, so it's not a shock here, but they're a legit national championship contending team. If Georgia's not your favorite bet of the week, what is? Um,
45:57
probably, I mean, I have a Boise State future, and I'm not hedging off of it. I, I think they do win against UNLV. That number, it's pretty wild, uh, when you look at Boise State and UNLV.
46:09
Uh, that number was 13 in mid-October, and now it's four, four and a half in favor of Boise State. We don't know the health status of Maddux Madsen.
46:16
He's gonna play, but what I mean is how healthy is he going to be with that leg injury? So that's certainly a concern. I think UNLV has played better.
46:24
But, you know, for me, I just will say I'm not hedging off of a preseason future of Boise State to win the Mountain West.
46:30
I think they take care of business, and I think that number's starting to creep back to where it probably should be against UNLV. UNLV's never won on the Smurf Turf. All right.
46:39
Podcast will drop approximately what time today, sir? Uh, we'll say around 4:00 Eastern. 4:00 Eastern. Won't hold him to it by the minute- Yeah, yeah... but you get the idea. Thank you, Tim. Love the idea. Appreciate it.
46:50
See you guys. Giannis, where's he going next? On The Numbers Game. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability. And it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
47:03
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
47:16
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
47:22
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
47:31
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
47:39
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
