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Dec 6, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 6, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | December 6, 2024 | Hour 2
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers tell the story. They always do. So, I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSIN.
0:34
Hour number two of a Numbers Game right here at VSIN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. So many ways to take us in. We just appreciate that you choose one of them.
0:44
It's Gil Alexander. It is K. Michael Bidlin, producer number nine, right, [laughs] right here to my left. So you're- Yeah, I saluted. [laughs] It's just... By the way, you being K.
0:54
Michael Bidlin completely changes your brand. I know, right? [laughs] K. Michael Bidlin. Well, I don't know whether... We had a lengthy discussion about this at one point.
1:02
I can't remember if it was Primetime Action or a Numbers Game. Sounds like- Oh, that's right. Probably Primetime Action... sounds like a great mystery novelist, uh- Yeah... that's how I should go.
1:11
What's, uh, what, what's the names? What are they called? Like pen names or whatever. Oh, yeah, yeah. A little, uh, yeah, pen name. Like Samuel Clemens- Yeah... Mark Twain. Yeah, yeah. Pen name.
1:19
I'm blanking on the actual term for it right now. K- K. Michael Bidlin will be your pen name? K. Michael Bidlin, yeah. Okay. Uh, we get tweets that beat in the book. By the way, it's football Friday.
1:26
We got Falica, Fezzik, and Dr. Bob here momentarily. Jeff Staples, Cigar City Jeff, um, "I really like the over 170 and a half rushing yards for Giunti tonight. National game exposure and last chance for a Heisman push.
1:38
He'll get a ton of carries." I- I- by the way, real quick on that- Yeah... I don't know if I'd, like I, I think I'd go alts one way or the other. Yeah.
1:46
Like, if you're going over, I'm laddering that up or- UNLV was his worst performance earlier this year... right. Yeah, it was- Yeah...
1:51
his worst performance, so there might be some value on the alt unders too if you think UNLV could show up and do that.
1:57
Edward Perez at Boomerizzle, he said, "Yes, absolutely think this could happen with Campbell, and if it does, he will repeat," talking about him, you know, making a bad decision in the playoffs that will cost the Lions.
2:08
Uh, he says, "And if it does, he will repeat over and over how he had total 100% confidence in his players. In essence, putting it on them in a way where the players can't be upset if things go wrong."
2:18
[laughs] I am glad you brought up last year, 'cause that game, you c- like, you can't forget that when it comes- No... to the resume of Dan Campbell- No... and what he's done. No. 'Cause it was, it was ugly. Yes.
2:29
Jack Hannon @steelersjack50, "During the course of the playoffs, Campbell will cost the Lions a game. Inevitable. A month ago I would've said the same thing about Sirianni, but someone talked some sense into him.
2:38
Not happening with Campbell." Stringfellow Hawk says, "In concert, a very special evening with saxophonist K. Michael Bidlin." [laughs] dgen_southernjet, "Gil, I loved The Food That Built America.
2:51
I've never been more proud to be an American than I was learning about early US culinary entrepreneurs. Binge-watched the show like crazy. Also, check out Booze, Sex, and Bets That Built America."
3:00
[laughs] Well, I, I'm not aware of that one. That's interesting. You got like two words into that, I was like, "Well, I'm far more interested in that one."
3:07
[laughs] The, The Food That Built America, I just wanna say this- Where's this on?... before we get to Falica. It's History Channel, I believe. Okay. We grew up- I'm gonna write this one down...
3:15
we all grew up, you and me both, Kelly. Yep. We all grew up at a time in American history where we just took for granted stuff was on the shelves. Mm-hmm.
3:24
Cereals galore, candies galore, pizzas, uh, you know, pizza options, you name the food. Frozen foods. Well, guess what? If we went back like a generation or two before us, none of that stuff existed.
3:39
And so this is the fascinating story, and it's so well done, of how all of that came to be. You know what I just figured out? K.
3:45
Michael Bidlin's first book is what it's gonna be about, is whe- is when, when I was living in Russia- Yes... and, and free Russia started to get all of the American foods. Oh. And it was crazy. K. Michael Bidlin.
3:55
Like when McDonald's first opened in Russia, oh my gosh. New York Times number one best-selling list. Watch out. Best seller, here it comes. Hand to Mike.
4:03
Ladies and gentlemen, Chris Falica will have a best seller once, uh, once- Probably... soon in the future I'm sure. He is The Bear from Fox Sports.
4:09
He's also got The Bear Bets podcast, which he does with our buddy Will Hill, Sammy P, Jeff Schwartz, a cast of characters. He joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line from Boise, Idaho. How you doing, Chris?
4:21
I, I, I'm, I'm well. Nice little gray morning here in, uh, in Boise. Yeah, y- you know what, another shot, it's, it's not like, uh, The Food That Made America, it's more of a sports-related deal.
4:31
Have you guys started checking out that Game 7 series on Amazon Prime? No. No. It's like stories and game, like, uh... The, the, I've, I've watched a couple of them.
4:41
They had one on Game 7 of the 2003 World Series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. It's really good. And then I watched another one on Game 7 of the Oilers- the Flyers- Oh, wow. Wow... final.
4:52
Like, it, it's r- it's really, really... I, I would suggest checking it out.
4:55
I think, like, Mark Messier and, uh, a- and Da- David Ross, I, I think are kind of like co-executive producers on it, and it, it's really entertaining.
5:03
So if you got some time to kill, uh, once college football season, uh, ends here or whatever else, uh, you know. I didn't, I didn't even know that existed. Wow. Yeah. I, I didn't, I didn't either.
5:12
My, my, we, we were flipping through the channel the other day for, and, and to see if Hard Knocks has started yet, and, uh, it had not.
5:19
And then like, "Hey, if you like this, we suggest this," and it was Game 7, so we're like, "Yeah. Let's, let's, let's watch this and see what's going on." And, uh, yeah, really entertaining.
5:28
By the way, nobody needs to tweet in. Chris knows that the Yankees/Red Sox was the 2003 AL Championship. He misspoke. Please don't call out- I tell, yes. I, yes... Chris on that. I am aware. Yes. Thank you.
5:36
He's a- Sorry. [laughs] Uh, all right, uh, championship, college championship fever. Today and tomorrow, nine games. Uh, you have bets in how many of them? I have bets that I like in four of them. Okay.
5:52
Let, let's- Um, I, I like, uh, I, I like Penn State's team total under in the game. Uh, I, I, I don't think they're gonna have a ton of, uh, success scoring However, I will say this about this game.
6:06
And I, I talk about this, and maybe I read too much into it, and maybe I'm full of you know what, but this is one of those games where I haven't heard one person pick Penn State yet. [laughs] Totally agree, yeah.
6:20
And, and I, I, I think Matt Youmans, I think, was someone who mentioned it. I think some other people, they mentioned on, like, their power ratings have Oregon, like, five, five and a half. And this line hasn't moved.
6:32
It, it's at three and a half solid.
6:34
Like, that would worry me, and that would make me feel, uh, that the oddsmakers are very comfortable with their position here and taking Oregon money, and that they kinda have a feeling that Penn State might be the right side in this game.
6:46
So, uh, but I, I do think it'll be a lower-scoring game, uh, in Indianapolis tomorrow night. Uh, I do like Georgia minus, uh, getting the two and a half rather against Texas.
6:57
Uh, this could just be a situation where it's not a great matchup for Texas. And look, I, look, I know that first game was weird. You had the seven turnovers.
7:05
You had the bizarre incident where the officials kinda reversed the, the pass interference call and gave Texas a, an interception. And Georgia special teams dominated, and you saw Arch come in.
7:17
But also in that game, you gotta remember, too, Georgia played without two of their offensive line starters. So, like, their offensive line is gonna be better now.
7:24
They, they're gonna get, uh, Trevor Etienne back in some capacity, uh, tomorrow. He's not 100%. He's not gonna play the entire game, but I, I would expect to see him out there.
7:35
Texas has got issues now on the right side of the offensive line, uh, w- with Banks and does Goolsby play. I, I, I just, I think Georgia just has kinda the recipe.
7:45
Uh, to me, the Texas offense, it frankly has been a little underwhelming, uh, this year. So I took Georgia plus two and a half. Uh, I took Clemson plus the two and a half against SMU.
7:54
Uh, again, this is a, are the oddsmakers that off in their number to open Clemson as a three-point favorite in this game and have it swing all the way across to the other side now?
8:06
Now SMU is a two and a half point favorite, three point favorite. Now I, I don't think they're that off in, in their power ratings. And I, but I, I just think
8:15
Clemson's, uh, look, I don't think Clemson is a great team at all. They easily could've lost to Pitt. Fell behind Virginia Tech. Got blown out on their home field against Louisville.
8:24
But, but I, I think the amount of pressure now on SMU, kind of with the committee basically telling them, "You better win or else you're going to be out," uh, I, I think that's a lot.
8:34
I think that you'll look at SMU's schedule. They played, five of their eight conference games were against, uh, ECC teams that did not have a winning record in conference play, so they kinda got a schedule advantage.
8:46
Uh, I, I do like Clubnick. I think he's gonna give SMU's defense some problems. I know the SMU offense have been great since Jennings came into play.
8:53
But, but I think this is one of those games where we're gonna be looking up at Dabo at the end of the game. And oh, the whole little, "Yeah, little old Clemson.
9:00
Everyone counted us out, and here we are again win- winning the ACC." Hmm. So I do think, I do, I do think Clemson is the right side here. And, uh, I like Iowa State against Arizona State.
9:10
I think the L- Arizona State's injuries at wide receiver is a big deal. I know Iowa State has struggled to stop the run.
9:16
But if they don't have to devote as much resources in the, uh, John Hickok's defense to slow down a passing game, and they can kinda focus on Scadabo, uh, I think obviously that makes their, uh, their, their task that much easier.
9:29
Uh, I think Iowa State has kinda been a little underappreciated this year. They got two great wide receivers. And, uh, and I like, I like the Clones here. I, you see that ticking down to, uh, to one and a half now.
9:39
I'd still take it. I d- I mean, I took them plus two, but one and a half is still fine. Let's do a little rapid fire here. Yeah. I think, I think you already answered this.
9:46
Uh, and that was g- the first one was going to be, if SMU does lose to Clemson, Clemson gets in as the ACC champion. Hmm. You, you do believe Alabama will be in, uh, at the expense- Yeah... of SMU, at the expense of SMU.
9:58
Yeah, yeah. I, I, I think they, that Ward Manuel, they basically spelled it out, uh, the, the other night and said it without really saying it. And, and you know what's funny, too? I, I was kinda anti-Ole Miss all along.
10:10
I'm like, "Oh, you can't lose those three games against unranked teams." But, but now I'm just kinda doing all these sorts that I do at the end of the year.
10:17
Like, I'm wondering, like, and, and I hate, like, the, the simple answer being, like, uh, if you were an opposing coach, which of these three teams would you least wanna play? I think the answer would be Ole Miss.
10:28
Ole Miss. But like, like, y- y- like, I would probably have them. I mean, they, they crushed South Carolina with Sellers.
10:35
Their loss in Florida's nowhere near as bad as Flori- as, as, uh, Alabama's loss at O- at Oklahoma. I don't know. I, I think, I think the committee got it wrong with the ordering of those three.
10:45
I, I said earlier in the week, I said a couple things. One, Ole Miss has the most to be angry about in my opinion.
10:50
And two, I gave you your props on the whole suggestion of here's, here's how the committee could've gotten out of this whole controversy- Mm-hmm...
10:57
about, "Hey, a championship game is not supposed to hurt you if you lose." Right. Just rank Alabama ahead of SMU going- Correct... into this week. Exactly. Right? Let ev- Just do that...
11:06
let them know where they stand, exactly. Yeah. Okay. The, uh, the second one is, we don't know what the matchups are gonna be quite yet. We have some sense. Mm-hmm. But we don't really know.
11:15
What is your sense of, right now, if I say, "Chris Falico, who's the best team in college football? Who's, who's probably the team to beat?" You would say? [sighs] So hard, right? Like, there isn't- It is hard.
11:24
I, I, yeah, and I'm probably gonna get laughed at for saying this, but I think it still could be Ohio State. I, I, I think Ohio, with, with the defense that they have.
11:32
And you wor- y- and the Michigan bugaboo pressure to win that game is off of them. You might be in a situation now where they just let it rip. And, and, and you're seeing Abuka and Jeremiah Smith get balls.
11:44
And you're gonna get a home game. You're gonna get either warm weather or an indoor quarterfinal, semifinal. Like, Ohio State might be really over- overlooked right now with undervalued to win a title.
11:54
Uh, real quick, I need a five-second answer. Jeanty, how many yards does he have to get tonight to win the Heisman, or is there no amount of yards? You're Hunter. Nah, no amount of yards. It's over.
12:03
Travis Hunter is your Heisman winner. Well, I worry about that as well. Chris Falica, enjoy Boise, man. [upbeat music]Chris Felica, everybody. The Bear from Fox Sports. Coming back with Steve Fezzik in studio.
12:15
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment of a numbers game is brought to you by Zyn nicotine pouches.
12:33
There's only one number one draft pick, there's only one champion at the end of the season, and there's only one nicotine pouch brand in America that outsells the rest, and that is Zyn.
12:43
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12:56
Back at Circa, Gil Alexander. Numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Kelly Bidlin also, uh, in the house behind the glass. Uh, Steve Fezzik standing by. First your tweets though.
13:05
We get tweets at Beating the Book. Roger Jones @braccowins, "Guys, I think, um, Motor City Dan Campbell's decisions are easy to follow when you look through the prism of Applebee's continuous wings.
13:16
When the server asks, you don't punt, you say more." Todd Wischnev all over that on the Megapod.
13:21
Uncle Bush, "Do you think, uh, to Jason's point, there may be a reverse bias on Travis Hunter with some national voter hate on Coach Prime causing to vote against Hunter?" I'm sure there will be some, um, as, [tsking]
13:35
how can I put this?
13:37
I, I would hope people would not use their vote as their own, you know, through their own personal biases to that extent, but I'm sure there will be a group, Uncle Bush, that will be voting because of their dislike of Coach Prime.
13:49
Johnny Ringo, "Pen name, pseudonym?" Yes, both are okay by the way. Pseudonym, uh, obviously is a, is a word, but pen name is what they refer to, uh, Mark Twain also, uh, a real name Samuel Clemens.
14:01
Talking about Kelly and, uh, K. Michael Bidlin. The RGB, "Me, R. Gary Beard, got you all started on the first initial conversation prior to the Super Bowl." Maybe, maybe it was you, RGB. Mr. Bomb Apple, "Was Dr.
14:12
Bob being a line bully on the pod? I could feel Todd wanting to push back and was waiting for a showdown. For once, Toddy seemed intimidated."
14:20
Well, because Bob's been on before and, and we've accused Toddy of being rude to Dr. Bob, so maybe he was, uh, sort of, uh, tamed by that a little bit. Accused? Uh, [laughs] accused for the background. It's factual.
14:31
Yeah. [laughs] Anthony, Anthony Turtolo, "I watched the, the, uh, Yacht Rock documentary last night. Thanks for the recommendation." So good, right? Uh, Joe C, "The best is still Skill Alexander and Kelly Bin Laden.
14:41
L- LOL." JasonH11, "The History Channel has a bunch of great Built America series. The Titans Who Built America is fantastic, as is The Food That Built America. The spinoffs are all excellent as well."
14:51
Uh, Bobby Knuckles has asked Chap- Ch- [laughs] ChatGPT to write a synopsis for Kelly's first horror novel under the pen name K. Michael Bidlin, uh, in case the game show host career doesn't pick up.
15:02
And he, he actually provides it. Uh, uh, boy, this stuff is amazing, this AI. Eric Cheshire, this is a great point, Eric Cheshire, "Here's an angle.
15:10
If you're on Clemson money line, FanDuel has SMU three to one to miss the playoff better than Clemson plus 108." It's great advice.
15:17
Uh, if you believe that those things are correlated, then absolutely go to the miss the playoff market. If you believe that the, that it's a, it's a this cause and effect kind of thing for that.
15:29
Uh, not only do we get tweets, we also have texts that go on throughout the show. We're in a group text, me, Felica, Will Hill, Steve Fezzik, and Todd Wischnev.
15:38
Here's just a brief exchange, uh, two, uh, one, one back and forth. Fezzik listening to the, uh, Megapod, "Todd interrupts too much." Todd, "I agree. Let's get Stevie and, and, [laughs] and Will to be the regulars."
15:48
A kind of a back, [laughs] back and forth between each other. [laughs] And then this is, uh, Steve Fezzik who says, and let me just start Stevie with this.
15:55
By the way, Steve Fezzik, ladies and gentlemen, in studio, only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. Steve says, "I hate Starbucks. Am I allowed to explain that?
16:05
At Jackpots and their selection of food is so much better and cheaper prices." Hello, sir. There's a new h- head guy at Starbucks, and he's, like, doing all this stuff like he's gonna analyze his company.
16:16
CEO you're talking about. Yeah. Yeah. How about this? How about have one really good food item instead of nothing but crap that's eight, eight, $8 bad old bagels? Just one.
16:26
Have, like, one of these, like, they have these little Cinnabons at Jackpot. Yeah. Oh, they look glorious. Why, why do you... Kelly had the, the proper, uh, comeback to this.
16:34
He said, "Why does Steve insist on getting food at Starbucks?" It's free. I get a $10 food comp at Caesars- Oh, that's what it is... and I get, I get four free dr- drinks, and I get a $10 food comp.
16:43
And I, I'm a wizard at this, and I can't get anything I like 'cause their food is terrible.
16:48
Um, so if you're listening, Starbucks, get one, like, freshly made breakfast sandwich, like the Dunkin' Donuts has the meal deal. They have a great breakfast sandwich. Way better than Starbucks. All right.
16:56
Uh, here's again Steve Fezzik's tweets providing us with these segments. Oh, dear. Uh, not his tweets, pardon me, his texts. Uh, we're not doing the tweets for God's sakes. No.
17:04
Uh, "Let's discuss why the Dan Campbell late game decision to go." As everything with Steve's texts, he voices them so none of it makes any sense, but you wanna describe, you wanna talk about Dan Campbell.
17:14
Yeah, so the, the very last decision, I'm gonna make the case it, it's a total slam dunk.
17:18
Excellent points that people are saying Detroit's a dead not over team, so they going for it more, even if they're favored, makes a lot of sense for this team as opposed to a defensive team.
17:27
But boom, we're in the moment there. Let's say we kick the field goal. And let's assume we're gonna make it all the time just to simplify all the analysis. I would say, okay, Detroit's up three, Green Bay gets the ball.
17:37
They probably win, it feels like about 70%. Would you... Does that seem like a reasonable number- Okay... at that point in time? Sure, yeah. Make Detroit, like, minus 250. Yeah. Um, Green Bay plus 200. Yeah.
17:47
Okay, so let's use the 70%. Now let's go for it, okay? How often are we gonna make it if we go for it? If we, if we get it, we win. I would say we'll get it about two-thirds of the time.
17:55
Okay, so right off the bat, we're gonna win, play 100 times, we're gonna win 67. Mm. But there's gonna be 33 times that we don't get it, but we don't lose when we don't get it.
18:03
It just, the game continues, and Green Bay does become the favorite to win. I would say of those 33 games, maybe Green Bay goes 20 and 13. I'm, I'm throwing numbers out of my you know what. Yeah.
18:13
But the point is c- in- just put em- input your own numbers. It doesn't matter if you use any reasonable assumptions. So of those 100 games, when they fail on the field goal, Detroit's still gonna win 13.
18:22
So 67 plus 13, that's 80%. Yeah. Detroit's gonna win 80% if they go for it. They're only gonna win, like, 70% if they kick the field goal. It's not even close. It's so far apart, you have to go for it.
18:33
I agree with you 100% on the, on the last one. Agree with you 100%. Are, are there, is there a big groundswell of people who thought he, what he did was wrong? I don't know. Oh, there was...
18:42
Well, uh, in the moment, the announcers- Yeah... always are, are, are sissies. So they're all like- [laughs]... "Oh, I can't believe they're not kicking the field goal." Sissies.
18:49
[laughs] Um, but do you agree with my overall sentiment, which is that's fine on that particular one, but earlier he went for it fourth and short in his own territory, and my big fear as someone who has Lions tickets, right, match-ups in the Super Bowl, is that, and it did last year in the NFC Championship, is that Dan Campbell doesn't really do this in any w- way other at this point than, "Uh, this is my brand, I gotta go for it."
19:17
Uh- He's Chris Moneymaker. He's hyper-aggressive. "I'm all in." Yes. And he- He doesn't do use analytics... and- He's just aggressive...
19:23
and because they are more often than not going to actually be the, quote-unquote, better team, right, who's gonna be a pre-flop favorite, let's just judge it by that, that in some weird way he is, he is more likely to open the door for a lesser opponent doing it that way.
19:40
I just- The Falcons could beat them, not that they're making the playoffs, but- Right...
19:43
b- but with the, that sort of introduction of variance, and what was fascinating about the San Francisco loss is going in they were a big underdog, the Lions, so they should have been hyper-aggressive and go for it, go for it, go for it.
19:54
But now, now we get to late in the third quarter and the th- we've s- we've flipped the switch. Yes. Now it's the Lions that are the nine-point favorite. That's right. And now you don't want variance.
20:03
Kick the field goal. That's my point. Yeah, exactly. Yes. Yes. No, that's h- it's exactly how I see it. Again, I say this, I know Lions fans are like, "Oh, j-..."
20:10
No, I'm doing it from a perspective of I got tickets on your team. I got ti- that's what worries me about him.
20:15
Uh, and the Green Goblin meme is, [laughs] is a great one because it's like, "You're, [laughs] you're not gonna go for this, Dan Campbell? What kind of, you know, what kind of weakling are you?" kind of thing.
20:24
So I- By the way, shout out to my South Point runner number five that did, you know, make an appearance- [laughs]... on your show. That's right. [laughs] How many of those do you think you have? 'Cause he was like 47342.
20:33
I mean, was the, was he just standing in line? Probably be easier just to let me bet, but- Uh-... not, not, I'm not, not, above my pay grade...
20:40
here's another one, and then we're gonna get to, inevitably we're gonna get to Steve's, uh, lookahead plays and what he has for this weekend. But you make a point, um,
20:47
Seattle, Arizona, you say on the total here no one should have gotten this... W- what was your phraseology here on this? Oh, no, the, the, the game last night. The game last night. Oh, n- last night. So the, the...
20:58
I talk about asymmetric risk, and what that, what does that mean? Fancy word. Don't lay minus three and a half early in the betting cycle. Don't play plus two and a half.
21:05
Because I can tell you, Gilly, there have been plus two and a halves I'm like, "There's no way, as sure as the sun comes up tomorrow, there's no way I could possibly get Pit- the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three hosting the Jets."
21:16
And then what happens? Mm. Pittsburgh's plus two and a half, and it goes to plus three. All the time, just the vagaries of line moves and the like, so where I'm going here is that
21:25
the only time I would ever lay minus three and a half is one second before the game kicks off. I w- would always wait. So with the Lions, if you waited, you got the push, came down to the three right at post.
21:34
So, um, you should not have lost with the Lions, but if you bet Green Bay, you had plenty of time to lock in plus three and a half, especially here in Vegas, even at minus 110.
21:42
And so you should have won if you bet Green Bay, and should have pushed if you bet the Lions on the game last night. Uh, is, does that kind of stuff, does... Uh, uh, well, we generalize that category.
21:54
The ability to analyze the market and line movement, uh, of the market, is that your biggest pet peeve, would you say, about the, the, the general voter, that they don't understand? Oh, I've got dozens of pet peeves.
22:06
I, I know you'd... I, I'm talking about- Um- Not to... Twitter Fezz I know has 35 things. Baldwin. I'm talking about per, you know, real-life Fezzik. Is that the thing that bothers you the most? Uh, yes.
22:15
The, um- It's up there... it, it, it, it's up there, and just that, that w- I, when we debate things, that people think that's Fezzik's op- opinion, okay? Yeah. And it's like, it's not my opinion.
22:25
You take 100 geeks from the University of Chicago and you ask them this question, they're professional sports bettors, and all 100 are going to, you know, side with, "Well, this is the math.
22:34
Of course Campbell should go for it in this situation." Yeah. Yeah. Um, okay, how many lookaheads do you have? I have five. How many from this week do you have? I have three.
22:44
Okay, three from this week, three week 14 bets this weekend in the National Football League, and five lookaheads. Lot of action. Week 15- A lot of action... in the National Football League. The man is an action junkie.
22:55
[laughs] That's what we think about you, Steve. We're like, "What an action junkie that guy is." [laughs] Uh, Steve Fezzik, @fezzikssports on Twitter. We never say your Twitter handle. @fezzikssports on Twitter.
23:03
'Cause that's the evil Fezzik. All of those plays right on the other side. That is the evil Fezzik. Tread lightly with that guy. Coming back on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:12
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23:26
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23:40
Start betting smarter today for as little as 9.99 and see everything VSiN has for you to up your betting game. Sign up today at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Skill Alexander, we get tweets.
23:53
I just wanna read a few of these, 'cause we wanna get to Fezzik's plays here. No time to lose.
23:57
Donnie Miller When the Bears says there's no amount of yardage, uh, Gent he can gain tonight to get the Heisman, "I suddenly have hope," he says. Last week Michigan had zero chance of beating Ohio State.
24:07
It was just a matter of how bad Ryan Day wanted to beat them. Keep hope alive. Well, in fairness, I think 97 out of 100 people would have answered the Michigan-Ohio State question the same way, uh, when I asked it.
24:18
I could even feel when I asked it, listeners were like, "How could you even ask if Michigan... Oh, what a stupid question. It could, could Michigan possibly win this outright?"
24:26
Um, I think 97 people would have s- out of 100 would have been like, "Not a chance." And to be fair, you said earlier in the show there's 100% chance one of three teams is going to represent- Yeah... uh, the, the AFC.
24:36
You don't really mean 100%. No. You just mean- No... hey, it's very, very likely. Is, are we sure? Yeah. I'm sure. Yeah.
24:43
[laughs] I understand that there's a mathematical possibility that, uh, the, I can't be sure, but- [laughs]... yeah, I'm pretty sure.
24:49
Jordan, Jordan Pagel, "A good coffee shop is very underrated part of a cas- uh, is a very underrated part of a casino.
24:55
I work remotely, so when I come to Vegas I like staying at hotels with good coffee shop work spaces, good coffee and food. Jackpots is great. Wynn and Fountainblue also great coffee spots," he says.
25:05
And then everybody- I agree... everybody's sending me these, uh, [laughs] these memes on Twitter of Dan Campbell getting ready to spin the Price Is Right wheel, [laughs] which is very accurate.
25:13
"Drew, I'm gonna spin," is what it says. [laughs] Very funny. All right, Steve. Uh, Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports. Uh, only back-to-back champion of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day.
25:22
How are you doing in the Millions this year? Not so good? Not so good. You know what? I, I went back and I thought I was donezo in these contests. Yeah.
25:29
There's a good chance I'm gonna win the Westgate Super Contest, um, the season win contest. Oh. I'm on, I'm on pace to go like 24 and 8, and my tiebreak is the Chief's over with 13 wins. So I, I own the tiebreaks.
25:43
Oh, wow. So we'll see. What's the pot there? It's a small pot though, right? Yeah, first prize is 26,000. Oh, that's, that's, man, what's wrong with that? Pay for all the other losing contests. [laughs] That's right.
25:51
[laughs] What's wrong with 26K? All right, let's get, you've got three this weekend in the NFL. Yeah, so let's start with a total. Let's go Seattle, Arizona under.
26:01
I'm gonna make the case that both of their defenses are underrated. Because if you look at, they're giving up 5.4 yards per play, old school fossil stat. Um, but look at like who Arizona's played.
26:12
Like, to start the year they played Buffalo, the Rams, Detroit, Washington, San Fran, Green Bay- Yeah... LAC and Miami with Tua.
26:20
They, they're playing nothing but, like, above average offenses, so of course they're giving up 5.4 yards per play. And Seattle has a similar schedule, same division. So both defenses underrated.
26:29
When they played two weeks ago, uh, very low scoring game, not a lot of yardage. I'm gonna go under the 44 and a half.
26:34
All right, and then you are putting on your Evel Knievel helmet and taking the Jets plus six at the Dolphins. All right, so let's value. So by the way, shout out, um, The Whale. Great point.
26:43
He was like, "I'm selling Detroit high," okay? Yes. So it looks good so far. Um, g- I, I am buying [laughs] the Jets low. And so let's think about this.
26:51
If you wanted to bet the Jets, in retrospect you probably shouldn't have laid three when they were at Pittsburgh. That was a real number. That was, that was the number. Real number. Real number.
26:59
Now they're getting six at Miami. And let's think about this in terms of, like, comparison shopping. Miami just recently, they were hosting New England and Las Vegas and they were laying seven.
27:11
Those are really bad teams. The Jets are just a mediocre, you know, team. They're, they're a field goal better than those other two teams, and the Jets are getting almost the same amount of points, Jets plus six.
27:20
Jets plus six. And you, now this is interesting. You're taking the Bears. This was, we have a question on the Megapod. What's the game you want no part of? My pick was the Bears and the Niners. I want no part of that.
27:29
You do want a part of it. You're taking the Bears. Yeah, it's, it's a, a blindfold pick basically. I got a team that fired their coach, um, so they can blame, you know, their, their, their mistakes on him. Yeah.
27:43
Um, which obviously he was a big part of it. Um, they got 10 days, I love that, against a team that's horribly injured.
27:48
So I got the much healthier team that fired their coach with 10 days of prep against a team that's reeling from injuries. I have to, I'm not watching the game. I'll bet the, take the Bears plus four.
27:57
[laughs] But, but a game that you are not required to watch. Uh, okay, look- Of course I will actually watch it... look ahead to week 15 in the National Football League.
28:06
You have six, count 'em, I love when people say that, count 'em, six look aheads. Let's start with the Rams plus three against the, uh, Niners. So let's think about this. So the Niners are laying four against the Bears.
28:18
Well, the Rams are much better than the Bears, and the Niners are laying three, so it's, uh, it's a very- Not laying three, catching three... ca- the, the, I'm getting the Rams plus the three. Yeah. Yeah.
28:26
Catching three, yeah. Right. R- r- right. So the Niners, but, but the Ni- yeah.
28:29
So, so the, the, I mean, the Rams and the Niners I got as equal teams and, and, and I'm catching three home fields only worth one and a half. Absolutely give me the Rams. Okay. Also, uh, boy these are ugly.
28:40
Browns plus six versus the Chiefs at home. It's at, at home for Cleveland, though. Yes. Yeah. And a, a situation where, um, power rating makes it four and a half, but I mean, come on.
28:49
C- the, the book on Kansas City, and it's a fair book, is they're kinda like that LeBron Cleveland team.
28:54
You know, like back when they'd, "Eh, we'll win enough games, get in the playoffs, and then we'll rock and roll," and it just- Yeah... so it turned out this y- you know, they're winning all these close games.
29:01
They're not covering any of them. Um, and I think, um, the backdoor will be wide open against that bad Kansas City defense that without Watson has just been awful. Cleveland plus six. Okay.
29:12
Eagles and Steelers next week, week 15. Um, and by the way, I will be off next week. I have to, uh, tend to some things. So, uh, Kelly will, uh, man the ship with, uh, with some co-hosts.
29:24
I think, uh, Ben Wilson will be here. I think, uh, Scott Seidenberger will be here on Friday with you. Love Scott. Um, you are very high on the Eagles. Uh, you would l- you are laying the points versus the Steelers. Yes.
29:36
So I have Eagles minus four and a half. These are all DraftKings lines. And I have the Eagles five points better than the Steelers. So on a neutral I'd make it minus five.
29:44
It's a no-brainer, you know, w- when, since they're hosting Pittsburgh, to go ahead and lay it. And I've been on an island with the E- I got the Eagles my number one team in the NFL. Yeah.
29:53
But to be fair, like, there's, I give out my power ratings on X @FezzikSports, and there's a guy named Sam Hoppen that aggregates all our power ratings, and I've consistently been higher on the Eagles than everyone else and been correct so far.
30:05
I'm gonna run with them again. It would surprise nobody for an Eagles-Lions NFC Championship, uh, to go the Eagles' way, by the way. May surprise some. It wouldn't surprise me. Mm-hmm.
30:15
Uh, Eagles minus four and a half versus the Steelers. All right, moving on. The Buccaneers, three-point dogs at the Chargers. You are taking the points. Yeah, I don't get this. Um, explain this to me.
30:25
I don't know who the better team is, and the Chargers don't have much of a home field at all, so absolutely give me Tampa Bay plus three minus 115. The Chargers are, are...
30:34
There's, there's a lot of, uh, there's a lot of confirmation bias with the Chargers that's like, uh, people like to immediately soak into the Harbaugh narrative. Oh, Jim Harbaugh, like, yeah. Blah, blah, blah.
30:44
Good coach, good quarterback. All that stuff. It's like they're- Bad fourth quarter quarterback, though. They're, they're not that good. Yeah, s- uh, Buccaneers plus three at the Chargers. Seahawks versus the Packers.
30:53
Seahawks are at home for this one. Yeah, so on my power rating, so I've got Green Bay four points better than an average team, Seattle one point better, so do, do, do. Uh, that's a three-point difference on a neutral.
31:03
[laughs] And Seattle's home, and Seattle has a huge home field advantage. What, what is this? This is the Hail Mary Bowl from years and years ago, right? Oh, I remember it. Yeah. Um- That's right.
31:12
But, um, you give me the full three, absolutely. Seattle plus three with that big home field edge. Golden Tate, I believe that was- Yeah, yes... if I'm not mistaken.
31:19
All right, and one total for next week, Lions and the Bills. Ooh. Yeah, so, and you think I don't listen to your show.
31:24
So you b- you brought up the excellent point, you know, the, the underlying metrics of the offenses and defenses- I don't think that... don't work- Yeah...
31:30
on Detroit Lions games because they go for it, you know, fourth and one from their own four. Yeah. Okay, that's impossible. Um, so- [laughs] But they're, they're hyper aggressive. That creates more scoring.
31:41
We just saw the Monday night game get bet up from 51 and a half to 53. Soars over against Green Bay while Buffalo and Green Bay look pretty comparable to me o- uh, overall.
31:51
So I'm gonna go over the 51 and a half and get ahead of the likely line move over. The weather in Detroit should be pretty good. It sh- should be pretty good in the, uh, friendly confines.
32:00
[laughs] Uh, so this week, just to review these, Seahawks, Cardinals under 44 and a half. Jets plus six with the Dolphins. Bears plus four with the Niners.
32:07
And then next week look at, you got the Rams catching three at the Niners. Browns plus six at home versus the Chiefs. Eagles laying the four and a half versus the Steelers. Bucs plus three at the Chargers.
32:17
Seahawks plus three at home versus the Packers. And the over in what, uh, ought to be the marquee matchup of the week, week 15, Lions, Bills, over 51 and a half.
32:25
Bold, bold prediction, five of the six will beat the closing number. Five of six will beat it. We've done very well with the clo- Okay... against the closing numbers with, with the plays we've given out.
32:33
How have the, how has the CLV translated to wins and losses? Um, we've done well. I went back the last two weeks. We're four and three. I don't know if you gave out my Arizona minus 130 last week.
32:43
I sent it in, but it was not on the show. I don't know that I did. Yeah. Yeah. So I w- so we won't count that, of course. Sorry. So, so four and three. By, by the way, my pet peeve- Oh, I like it...
32:51
I, and, and, and everyone does this. I want everyone to stop asking all the guests, "Who have you played this week?" That's a terrible question. I wanna know who do you like at the current numbers?
33:00
[laughs] Because I don't care that I... Yeah, th- th- that I played the game of the year and I got four points, but it doesn't do anyone any good.
33:07
So, and, and, and I've been fined numerous times for exactly this sort of, um, discussion, but really we want to discuss what, who do we like versus current numbers? Yeah. Do you, do you...
33:19
You know, what Bob will do is he will say, and I think b- Dr. Bob, who's about to come up, he'll answer the question, "Oh, I bet this, but it's here now. I would, would or would not recommend that now." Yeah. No fine.
33:31
No. No fine given. No fine. Given that he still likes it. None the less. He, e- every pick Bob is giving out... By the way, the Pioneer, and he's coming on- Yeah... he is crushing it in college basketball.
33:40
So there, when you see that screen light up like a Christmas tree with all the, the bulbs and, like, you know- Oh, that's him... uh, that, that's him. Now, I know Stormy likes, like, all the white bulbs going on.
33:49
Other people like the red and the green and all the different lights. All the lights are going off at 6:30 when Dr. Bob speaks, and at 7:05 AM. Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports on the Twitter machine.
34:01
Thank you, Steve. Appreciate you being here. Thank you for having me. It's always... Uh, we will come back with Dr. Bob. He's standing by. College plays next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:10
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Coming up top of the hour, Monday Moves with Stormy Bonatony. Stormy's got Jeff Schwartz in with her today.
34:27
Not in studio, but on the show with her today as he, as she does each and every Friday and Monday. Stormy and Jeff noon to 2:00. Followed by John Hanson, Prop Points, 2:00 to 3:00 PM Eastern.
34:36
Then Adam Shine, 3:00 to 4:00, Make It Rain. Coming up at VSiN, the sports betting network. Uh, this gentleman is doing double duty for us.
34:45
He did the Megapod, the NFL Megapod, the Beating the Book Megapod yesterday with us, gave out his NFL plays. So if you're interested in that, you can check out the Beating the Book Megapod, week 14.
34:55
But he joins us now to talk college football. You can follow him on Twitter @DRBobSports, drbobsports.com. Ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, it's Dr.
35:04
Bob, a pioneer of the industry, predicting the outcomes of sporting events through predictive modeling. How you doing, sir? Oh, I'm, uh, pretty good.
35:13
Sort of a light week this week, and I enjoyed being on the show yesterday, so that was fun. Yeah, thanks for, thanks for being on.
35:19
Um, you know, To- Todd, uh, he's an acquired taste, but I appreciate you, us slogging through it every week, every year. Mm-hmm. It's very kind of you. [laughs] He's the only, he's the only reason I come on. I know.
35:29
I know he is. Uh, okay, championship week. Only nine games. Uh, you have a couple leans. Explain that to folks. So h- you go from- Yeah, I, I-... two star to one star?
35:39
Yeah, I don't- How, how does your sort of- Yeah, I have be- I have best bets, which are generally in the 56% or better expected win probability.
35:48
Then I have strong opinions, which are in the 54 and a half to 55 and a half expected win probability, which has been the long term rec for those.
35:55
And then I have leans, which are profitable, 52.5% or better, but not quite strong opinions. But oddly, the leans have been fantastic in recent years, more in the 56, 57% range in recent years.
36:10
Uh, which are free on the website. And this year they've, they've been pretty good as well. Um, let's see, about 82 and 59 or something like that, uh, on the leans.
36:19
So these are profitable plays, but not bets that I, that I give out to clients. Okay. So lean away for us then, if you will, given that backdrop. What do you got?
36:27
Yeah, I, yeah, uh, the first one's Miami, Ohio, laying just two points against Ohio. They dominated the first matchup, um, outgaining Kent State, uh, 6.6 yards per play to 3.8 yards per play.
36:39
A lot of that was on one big pass play, but nonetheless, they pretty much dominated that game, and I see something similar here.
36:45
Miami, Ohio's just a better team, and Ohio Sta- Ohio's defense is not as good as it appears. They, they faced, um, Kent State's third-string quarterback, who was dreadful, 32 yards on 23 pass plays.
36:58
So you can basically throw that out. And they faced South Alabama's backup quarterback, which is a huge downgrade. Uh, so I think there's, there's value on Miami, Ohio.
37:05
Just not enough for me to make it a best bet, but, uh, I, I have Miami, Ohio, uh, minus the two as a profitable, uh, play. All right. That's the MAC Championship tomorrow, noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific.
37:17
Early start for the MAC Championship. Uh, and then you have a lean in the ACC Championship. Yeah. I, I like SMU here, uh, minus two and a half, and I, you know, people are like, "Oh, SMU hasn't really played anybody.
37:29
Their schedule wasn't that good." But, you know, Clemson didn't beat anybody. I mean, they, the three best teams they faced were Georgia, Louisville, and South Carolina, and they lost all three of those.
37:39
Uh, SMU beat Louisville, so they, they're, they've beaten a better team than Clemson beat all year.
37:44
I think the best team Clemson beat this year was Virginia Tech, actually, ratings-wise, and Virginia Tech was six and six. The, the next best team they beat was Pitt, which was an ugly four-point win on the road.
37:55
Um, so Clemson has been relatively worse on offense against better defensive teams.
38:01
Uh, in fact, they averaged 52 points and nearly eight yards a play against the five average or worse defensive teams they faced, App State, NC State, Stanford, Wake Forest, and Virginia.
38:12
But against the six games against better than average defensive teams, Clemson averaged 19 points a game and only 5.2 yards per play, and SMU has a certainly better than average defense.
38:23
They're 1.0 yards per play better than average defensively, which is actually better than the Clemson defense. So as much as Clemson has the reputation of being a great defensive team, they're really not.
38:33
They have a good pass defense, but their run defense is soft. SMU will run it if they need to, and they can throw it if they need to. Since Kevin Jennings has been the quarterback, they're 9 and 0.
38:42
Um, so I think SMU's better on offense, they're better on defense, and Clemson has not been good against good defensive teams, so I think it's a good, good matchup.
38:50
Uh, so SMU, this is probably my favorite play of the week, minus the two and a half, uh, over, uh, Clemson. A pretty strong lean there.
38:57
All right, last thing before you go, 'cause I know you gotta run to the, uh, to the dentist. Yeah. Do you have a cavity, Bob? Do you have cavities? What's going on with you? No, just a, just a cleaning. Okay.
39:04
You know, keep 'em clean. Cleaning. No, I'm just curious. Yeah. Yeah. I'm in. Um, I asked this of Falica earlier, and b- I ask it because I think it's, you know, more wide open than it's ever been.
39:14
Right now, where, where do you have the top teams ranked in college football? Because heading into the, into a bracket here, into a 12-team bracket, um, it's just, it's wide open.
39:24
I think there's many teams that could possibly win this. I'm curious w- who you have at the top. Ah. God, it, it's...
39:32
Everyone's got a flaw, and on my ratings, Ohio State still comes out a little bit better than Texas, Oregon, Penn State, Alabama, Notre Dame. The, Georgia's a little bit lower than those teams.
39:47
It's just all about the same, and it's not... It is, it's, it's gonna be interesting. I love the playoff. Wow. So it's gonna be, gonna be a lot of fun. All right, Bob. Good luck at the dentist, man.
39:55
Appreciate it as always. All right. Thanks, guy. Bob Stoll, everybody. S-T-O-L-L. You can follow him on Twitter at @DRBobSports, and again, the website for all of his plays, uh, drbobsports.com, Dr. Bob Sports.
40:07
Uh, which brings us to our G Bank Best Bets of the Day, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of V Sin, uh, as we like to do here each and every day on the program. Again, we'll start with mine.
40:19
Um, once again, so much happening, uh, this week. Alabama to win the, uh, College Football Championship. Again, I do believe that if SMU loses, uh, that they're going to be bounced.
40:31
I just have this, uh, belief about the committee, and that Alabama will be the, uh, the team to benefit from that. Lamar Jackson MVP, 12 to one. We talked about that extensively this week.
40:41
And then in terms of games, I got the Cardinals laying the two and a half against the Seahawks, and I am on the r- I am on the Los Angeles Rams, plus five, and on the money line at plus 185 against the Buffalo Bills.
40:52
I love that matchup. And again, if you wanna hear some more, uh, buttressing statistics about that, Bob is on the, uh, Rams as well. Kelly, he also jumped on the Lamar Jackson MVP bandwagon.
41:04
He's on Lamar to win MVP at 11 to one, and he is oppo, uh, Fezzik, on the Dolphins-Jets game. He's got the Dolphins minus six and a half versus the New York Jetropolitans.
41:14
Chris Falica had a trio of college football championship bets. He's on Georgia plus the points in the SEC Championship.
41:21
He's on Clemson plus the points in the ACC Championship, and he'll take the point and a half with Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship.
41:30
Jason Weingarten also on Iowa State, uh, in the Big 12 Championship, and he is on [laughs] the Dolphins money line. A lot of people circling the, uh, the Dolphins-Jets game in addition to that Big 12 Championship.
41:41
Uh, and then Paul Carr, not to be outdone, he's got three Premier League picks tomorrow. Everton-Liverpool under two and a half goals, plus 125. Always shop around, again, for the price here.
41:51
Brentford-Newcastle, he's going the other way. He's going over three and a half goals in the Brentford-Newcastle match. Uh, plus 135, over three and a half goals.
41:58
And then Sunday, the final of his, uh, three-pack, he's on Bournemouth at even money at Ipswich Town. Uh, Bob had leans. He didn't have actual picks, but, um, so we won't go to his.
42:10
But Steve Fezzik, my God, he had a bevy. Three this week. He's on the Seahawks-Cardinals under 44 and a half. He's taking the Jets plus the points against the Dolphins.
42:20
He's also taking the Bears plus the points at the Niners, a game I want no part of.
42:24
And then his look-aheads for Week 15 of the National Football League, he's on the Rams plus three at the Niners, the Browns plus six versus the Chiefs, the Eagles laying the four and a half versus the Steelers in Week 15, the Bucs plus three at the Chargers, the Seahawks plus three at home versus the Packers, and the Lions-Bills over 51 and a half.
42:44
Fezzik all over the place. Those are your GBank best bets of the day. Best bets brought to you by GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
42:51
The GBank Visa Signature Card is your best bet, delivering 1% cash back rewards on eligible gaming transactions and 2% cash back rewards on all other eligible purchases. For more information, head to vsin.com/gbank.
43:03
That's vsin.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. We get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody.
43:13
Mariners Geek, @baseballgeek72, he says, "Green Bay is like Moses. They won't reach the promised land, but they provided the game plan on how to beat Detroit, especially in Detroit."
43:24
That was Mariners Geek take on the game yesterday. Shine, Professor Shine says, "The Lions have a full analytics team, and everyone from Brad Holmes down are involved in using data for in-game situations.
43:33
Dan Campbell is not acting alone with these decisions." Um, he said also, the NFC Championship last year, he said, "The Gibbs fumble was the biggest game-changer, not the unattempted field goal attempts."
43:44
It wasn't just the unattempted field goal attempts. Uh, it was a series as we went through four different fourth-down decisions, none of which went the Lions' way.
43:51
So you're right about Gibbs, but let's not dismiss the fourth-down, uh, decisions in that game.
43:56
Benny Bot Esq., "Agree with everything you said about Dan Campbell today, but Sirianni is just as likely to mess up the same stuff, and they will probably be playing each other." Interesting point about Sirianni.
44:08
You may be very right. Uh, Paul Nelson, "Gil, please thank Steve for his idea to look ahead at NFL lines. I got Green Bay at plus four and a half."
44:17
Well, listen, it's not, uh, it's not Steve Fezzik's idea to bet look-ahead lines. Uh, a lot of, uh, pro bettors do that. It's actually a staple of what they do.
44:26
But yes, uh, for Stevie to do it on the show, we always appreciate it.
44:29
And again, his CLV is very good, and as a result, his, or maybe not as a result, but as it plays out, his win-loss record has been very good doing them as well. Uh, appreciate you listening. We've done all we can do.
44:42
Uh, Kelly will be back here next, uh, this, this coming week. I will not. I have to tend to some stuff. Ben Wilson will be in this chair. Scott Seidenberg will be in this chair. Um, Stormy is next.
44:53
Money Moves, Stormy and Jeff Schwartz. Enjoy, from VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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