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Dec 9, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 9, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | December 9, 2024 | Hour 2
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0:00
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0:24
[upbeat rock music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:35
Now we're number two of a Numbers Game from VSiN, the sports betting network. I'm Ben Wilson, back in for Gil Alexander next couple of days. Kelly Bidlin, maybe the, the single most professional broadcaster- No...
0:46
that, that we have at the network. That was impressive, what you just pulled off during the break. Kelly Bidlin- I didn't pull it off though, Ben. I forgot to tag out properly.
0:52
I was trying to record a promo for tomorrow that runs in between shows, uh, and I screwed everything up except for the time at the end. If only, if only th- there weren't ways to pre-record stuff, uh, before tomorrow.
1:05
I don't know. I- Y- you know what the worst part is then? Is when you can hear the crew in your ear talking about how you screwed up, man. Come on. Oh, that, that... Well, our, look, our crew leaves no stone unturned.
1:15
They, they tell it like it is. That's why we appreciate them. [laughs] There's no, you know, bluffing up with reality. Uh, I just appreciate that you waited until, like, 40 seconds every single time, and you're like I...
1:24
You know, it's, it's almost like the, the procrastination theory of- Nah... you can only do it when you're, you're up against the clock. Alas. Yeah, isn't that broadcasting?
1:30
We all forget the things we're supposed to do as soon as we go to break. We do. And then it's like, "Oh, yeah, wait, that, that." You know? We do.
1:35
Uh, big thanks to Stormy Bond and Tony for joining us in studio in hour one. We have more college football playoff talk with our buddy Chris Felica- Yeah... coming up this hour, in a half hour.
1:43
And we've noticed, uh, DraftKings and other books now posting, uh, exotic markets for the, the college football playoff. You have the name the finalist market which is now out.
1:53
Georgia, Texas is the short shot at plus 550. How about this? Road wins in the first round, under one and a half is juiced to minus 175, but you can pick exact.
2:03
If, if you agree with Stormy, there will not be a single outright upset, you actually get two to one on that. Okay. Interestingly enough there, Kelly.
2:09
One road win would pay you plus 190, and there are also team over/under wins, team win totals, which we, we, we just started looking at during the break.
2:17
I think something we need to really dive into tomorrow especially- Yeah... because there are some fascinating prices, and I'm not sure they're all that accurate necessarily from these opening numbers.
2:25
So you know me, Ben, not the biggest college football guy.
2:27
I am instantly obsessed with this market, win totals set for the college football playoffs because, uh, you don't have to be a huge college football playoff guy to know that some of these numbers just feel, are a little off.
2:38
Uh, we were, we were batting around a couple, but these are... I, I mean, some, I, this is... Look, compare. Compare how you want to. We talk about this all the time.
2:46
It's not just shop numbers and shop prices at different books, it's shop around within the same book. Is there a way to make the same bet, uh, in a better way?
2:54
And that's, uh, and what we're talking about a lot with looking at so- what some of these game numbers are. Uh, compare, compare them to what these win total, uh, prices are.
3:03
[laughs] Like you said, Ben, we'll dive more at these tomorrow 'cause there is a line- Yeah... set for every single one of these teams. But, uh, we were t- batting around a couple just in the break, and there's...
3:12
Yeah, you know, like I'll throw one at you. Georgia, we, we weren't even talking about this one. Georgia's lined at a half, a half win. Remember, they obviously have the bye. Uh, but one win gets them over.
3:23
That's lined at minus 200. What's that money line gonna be, price b- gonna be whether they face Indiana o- or Notre Dame?
3:30
You have that answer probably better than I do, but I would think it's, I would think it's north of 200. So if you like them, no matter what the matchup is, that, that could be a good one. I'd shop around.
3:41
I think there's some fascinating numbers in here.
3:43
And there's also the thought, too, you can maybe play around with these, these teams that have the bye on their win totals, and then also on the flip side look at, you know, look at the upset markets that we just, we, we just saw are now out with the road team wins, how those correlate against each other.
3:56
Uh, it is a fascinating, uh, exercise and worth the deep dive as we go throughout the week. We certainly will do that, uh, here over the next couple of days. How about, uh, how about though, Kelly, we go back.
4:05
Uh, we are continuing our look aheads to week 15, and, uh, we, from, from what we saw yesterday, uh, the... I was just picking up here where we left off from last hour.
4:14
Uh, but how about that command, uh, Commanders and Saints is next up on the list.
4:18
Commanders off the bye here, but, uh, as w- we, we saw a number of crazy games yesterday, one of them which was just crazy because of how awfully it was aesthetically, was the Saints and Giants game. Ugh.
4:29
Uh, and, and, and the, the, what?
4:30
I don't even know what to describe Derek Carr's attempted run, the somersault face plant, uh, seen around the world as, as Derek Carr ends up fracturing his non-throwing hand and assumed to be out for this game.
4:41
Uh, but the Saints get, get oh so lucky. And how about the two people in survivor who were on the Saints?
4:46
From 14-3 to 14-11, Giants had a really good chance to win the game, and at the end of the day they don't, they don't even get the field goal to send it to overtime as it's blocked.
4:55
Brian Burns gets the block to basically bail out an, just an ugly all around Saints performance, where special teams was particularly, Kelly, an absolute disaster [laughs] for the, the interim head coach, the special teams guy, Darren Rizzi.
5:08
Yet, uh, they, they did so many things wrong in that game, and yet they, they somehow suck out with a thir- a 14-11 win. Do not cover his five-and-a-half point favorites.
5:17
Uh, now they, they limp back home despite the win to take on Washington.
5:21
I, I assume now with Carr out, like, I would've made the game before the week Washington minus, like over a three-point favorite, minus three and a half on the road here.
5:28
I gotta think this is around probably a touchdown. Uh, I'm assuming so. Yep. Yeah, we're at seven and a half basically across the board on Washington, uh, uh, heading in there. So yes, you are correct above that.
5:39
I, and, and man, I, I, I think they're probably a good teaser, like, to look at this week as well. I, I might be adding them in with the Rams that we already discussed, uh, earlier, uh, Washington that is.
5:49
Yeah, like you said, I, I, I doubt we're seeing Derek Carr again so don't, I don't- I didn't see anything official on that yet. I don't, I don't think you have either. I don't think anything's come down on that.
5:57
But I, yeah, I mean, they, they're, they're bas- I, I guess they're not out of it. They're still in this [laughs] they're still in this NFC South race. I shouldn't- Technically, yeah...
6:04
shouldn't say they're not, they're, they're completely out of it. But man, it is, talk about Carr going down, Taysom Hill already out, which, yeah, Rizzi was...
6:12
I, I don't know that, I've had mixed feelings on Taysom Hill over the years, but at least seeing a coach that was excited to coach and utilize him was at least fun and interesting for a team that was pretty mediocre.
6:23
Um, I think we could make the argument in the past, "Why is Taysom Hill on the field when you're, you're, you're basically taking out your better quarterback to put in a guy like Taysom Hill?"
6:30
I think that argument's pretty valid in the past.
6:33
Uh, but with a team that is as middling as the Saints were, I, it was fun to potentially see what a coach could really do with Taysom Hill if they had b- bought all the way in.
6:42
Uh, this game, look, it's gonna be shaping up. Washington's gonna have some things to play for. Uh, this will be a either complete pass from me or Washington and a teaser.
6:52
I'm gonna, I'm interested to see where this line runs out to, Ben, 'cause I don't think we're done yet.
6:56
Seven, if, if we know it's not Der- if it's not gonna be Derek Carr, seven and a half I think is actually gonna end up being a little light.
7:03
Seven and a half across the board, and that, that look ahead was three and a half, but you certainly have to, you bake in a pretty significant downgrade. Jake Haener finishes the game into the injured Derek Carr.
7:12
Did you see the, the, the chewing out Derek Rizzi gave his punter- Oh, yeah... Matthew Hayball in this game? Oh, yeah. Did you see? That was nuts. That w- I was so confused at first. I was like, "What's going on?"
7:21
Like, how did, how did- I mean, on the same field, no less.
7:23
Remember the, the Matt Dodge disaster, the, the pu- the punter who was drafted by the Giants, he was supposed to be the next great punter in the NFL, and was so bad they cut him after a year.
7:32
And the famous one was he, he punted a line drive to DeSean Jackson as time expired- [laughs]...
7:37
in that famous Eagles comeback at MetLife, runs it back for a touchdown, and then just, just the pure red-faced Tom Coughlin just chewing out his punter and, uh, it was one of the...
7:46
You felt so bad for the poor guy because he had just completely lost it. That's what, uh, for Matthew Hayball, shades of Matt Dodge. Uh, both named Matt, I guess. Uh, shades of Matt Dodge yesterday at MetLife.
7:55
Uh, that was, for, for a special teams coach, right, Derek Rizzi, so many gaffes. Failed fake punt, two missed field goals, Saints get very fortunate.
8:03
Uh, now catching a big number against a Commanders team who had, uh, were one of the six teams on by yesterday, latest buys of the NFL season.
8:09
Now that we're done with the buys, I gotta think a good situational spot for Washington. It's, it's just now, uh, how much of a premium are you going to be paying, uh, for that here. Yeah.
8:18
As we continue, Kelly, other games, we'll, we'll try to go as fast as we can. Not sure if we'll get to all of them this hour, but, uh, Ravens-Giants is another one where we talk about that same game.
8:27
I'm, I'm glad I can at least continue to talk about the Giants here, because, uh, the, the Drew Lock experience, man. 0 for 8 to start. First Giants quarterback since at least 1991 to do that, Kelly.
8:37
So we're talking all these, these great Giant quarterbacks of yesteryear, like Davis Webb and Mike Glennon- [laughs]... and Jake Fromm and Colt McCoy and Jesse Palmer and Dave Brown and Danny Kanell and Kent Graham.
8:50
None of them ever started a game 0 for 8, as, as bad as some of those individual performances, uh, were.
8:55
And it was, for, for the folks who were brave enough to take the five and a half with the Giants [laughs] yesterday, you at least got a, a drive.
9:03
And you, you honestly could have won the game, even though this, this whole upgrade we were all promised, at least the bettors certainly thought that, the upgrade from Tommy DeVito to Drew Lock, uh, there's no upgrade.
9:12
I mean, I, I just can't help but wonder how bad must DeVito be in practice if he can't even get a, a sniff of the field compared to what Lock is giving the Giants in this offense.
9:20
Yeah, Giants, you got a quarterback problem, you got a backup quarterback problem, you got a third-string quarterback problem. Uh, it's, uh, it's pretty disastrous.
9:26
[laughs] Yes, I, I was, uh, left thinking that as well, because I was, uh, I was someone that was, "Okay, let's not completely say that Drew Lock has nothing, nothing in this league," 'cause I don't know if we've seen enough of him yet, uh, to make that declaration.
9:40
Yeah, I, I've s- I've seen enough of him, Ben. I've, I've seen enough of him. [laughs] You're, you're absolutely right. This is not, this is not better than, uh, than what DeVito's throwing out there really at all.
9:49
Um, man, they, you're talking about a 14 and a half point spread in this game. Ravens-Giants, one of the best offenses in the league going up against this Giants team, uh, that is falling apart.
9:59
The defense is maybe the one thing you could have s- spoken highly about earlier in the year. Injuries mounting up there for them.
10:05
Uh, this one will be a complete pass for me because, uh, I mean, because of the big spread.
10:11
But they, this Ravens team, it's, it's often difficult to figure out when they're gonna show up and look like the best offense in the NFL and when they're gonna look like just a pretty good offense in the NFL.
10:21
Yeah, I, I mean, I, I had this line over two touchdowns, not, you know, not a shock. I felt like all year though with these big spreads, just, you know, the numbers I do. And it, you know, just very basic.
10:29
It's just, you know, yards per play, EPA per play, run and pass defense.
10:33
I, you know, factor in the, as we all do, the quarterback numbers and as in, in addition to that the offensive line, the run blocking, the pass protection.
10:40
But, [laughs] but it always seems like my numbers come way higher on these big, big spread games.
10:44
Mostly just because, you know, the difference we have and, and really the delta now between the top teams in the league and the teams at the very bottom.
10:51
It, it feels really, really wide as much as the NFL has become i- is this parody induced league from week to week. So I, I, I have this more like 16 and a half.
11:00
I, the one thing I wonder about is Baltimore's big strength has been the run D compared to how bad the secondary has been this year, second against the run versus 28th against the pass.
11:10
So they've really been vulnerable against teams that can actually take advantage of that, move the ball through the air. Giants are not doing that.
11:16
They, they are not throwing the ball through the air, uh, whatsoever, unless you wanna consider, uh, if, if you wanna count the ball off a punter's foot being a ball through the air, 'cause that's about it for the Giants.
11:26
And so it's kinda similar in the sense to that Eagles-Panthers matchup, which was Philly's strength was running the ball against the Panthers' weakness, which was defending the run. Right.
11:34
Yet we saw Philly kinda no-show and, and that's the worry here with laying a big spread in Baltimore. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. That, that, that would be the, uh, yeah, that would be the concern for me as well.
11:43
I was gonna try to squeeze one more in, but I guess, uh, 20 seconds is not enough time? Uh, yeah. We, we will get to the Cowboys-Panthers.
11:49
'Cause we, we do owe it to Bryce Young and, and Panther fans and bettors everywhere to give them the due that they deserve. Because they almost pulled off the upset of the year.
11:57
Uh, and we'll, I, I wonder, uh, what that, what that line looks like, Dallas and Carolina for next week.
12:02
We'll get to that game next, talk Jets-Jaguars, Dolphins-Texans, Colts-Broncos, Bills-Lions, all still to come here as we look ahead to week 15 right here on A Numbers Game[upbeat music]
12:23
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12:33
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12:46
It's a limited time holiday offer, vsin.com/subscribe to sign up on our holiday special right now. Back with Kelly Midland. I'm Ben Wilson. We have Chris Salica coming up in 15 minutes.
12:55
This is, uh, not the traditional Guessing Lines format you might be used to on a Monday. Gil not here, out for the week. But, uh, we are, we're kinda doing our own version here, Kelly, and we'll, we'll race- Yep...
13:04
through some of these since we have had so much college football especially, uh, to talk about today.
13:08
But we're, we're trucking through, and again, just, just hoping to find some lines that maybe we s- we s- we have different than, than our own numbers or thoughts where situationally it could be a really good position.
13:17
And I, I wonder if Carolina might be one of those teams that bettors really flock to and turn to with how profitable they've been the last month.
13:24
Plus, as we go to Dallas and Carolina, Dallas will come off Monday Night Football tonight, and it, it... Look, I, I would've thought... I had this Dallas minus one going into the week.
13:33
Without having seen Dallas, you certainly up, continue to upgrade Carolina though for, uh, how good they look, and were, were live to win outright against Philadelphia yesterday.
13:42
Uh, as two touchdown underdogs, you had the final two drives both end turnover on downs in Philadelphia territory, and Bryce Young probably made the best play, I mean, not to get hyperbolic, Kelly, but that was the best play I've ever seen Bryce Young make at the NFL level.
13:54
The f- the, the third down and 11 at his own two-yard line where he escape- escapes three different rushers in the endzone, finds Xavier Legette for 31 yards to keep the game going.
14:04
And I was pulling so hard for them to pull the outright upset, not 'cause I wanted the guy who bet over 3 million at Circa on the money line to, uh, to lose and, and for people in Survivor, 11 of them, to go out, but just for the story, just for Carolina, for how hard they played, and for how properly aggressive Dave Canales was continuing to go for it for a team that had nothing to lose in that situation.
14:23
So we're Dallas. You know, if this is, like, a really tight game tonight, if Dallas looks good, uh, this, this might be the spot where o- especially off a short week, Dallas has been playing so hard.
14:33
Maybe the wind comes out of the sails a bit here, and you get a Carolina team that has been a twel- top 12 offense over the last five weeks.
14:39
Uh, they're the ones that actually are, are the team that, uh, can, can kinda put a damper in this recent Dallas resurgence, but it's hard to say that until we actually see what happens on the field tonight.
14:47
Last five weeks, Carolina is where? What did you just say? Uh, the last five weeks, EPA per play on offense, 12th- Hoo... in the NFL. 12th, Kelly. It's impressive. It's impressive.
15:00
I know there's a lot of home games mixed in there, but man, th- this, uh, I... What Bryce Young is doing right now, look, it, it, it's not [laughs]... This is what's tough, right, Ben?
15:08
'Cause I don't know that it's making anybody, any Panthers fans feel better about what his future is and what it could be in Carolina.
15:15
But he's play- Like you said, he's playing the best football we've seen from the kid, and he's actually looking like an NFL quarterback at times out there, which is a lot more than you can say, uh, could've said for basically the rest of his career.
15:27
Uh, so i- it's been interesting. I think it's hard to look at any of these Carolina games. I... That was one yesterday I didn't, I wasn't involved in at all. I don't know about you.
15:35
Uh, certainly I didn't have $3 million on a money line or anything. That was brought up, uh, enough by... Man, Hanson was all over, everybody was all over that bet that was taken here at Circa. Um, uh, this is when we...
15:46
When they're, when they're catching these big numbers, it, it, it's gotta be look at Panthers or nothing.
15:50
And now we are, I was trying to look it up while you were talking, uh, right now we're staring at Bryce Young as a favorite, yes, you heard it, folks, [laughs] a favorite in this game against Dallas next week.
16:01
Now, like, like you said, that could change a bunch, uh, between, uh, what we see tonight and, uh, when this game actually kicks off. But, uh, Carolina, a one or one and a half point favorite- Wow...
16:11
basically across the board here, Ben.
16:14
And, uh, as much as I've been scared to bet against Carolina, let- let's see how the Cowboys look tonight and whether they're still in this, 'cause I, I might be taking a bit of the Cowboys next week in this matchup.
16:25
Yeah. You're t- You're, you're certainly in a, in a, in a unique role relative to where Bryce Young has always been throughout his career.
16:32
I mean, a- as much as they probably deserve at this point, I mean, at best you say the two teams even on a neutral deserve to be a home favorite in this position.
16:41
I think Carolina, you know, we, do, y- I know you guys do your, your, your rises and falls every week, your power rankings. I know you don't do your bottom teams, but, you know, Carolina's getting out of the...
16:49
I mean, they've, they've gotten out of the basement for a while. I think I had them team 28 coming into the week. Mm. They'll be out of my bottom five. I mean, they've really been trending up over the last month.
16:56
Plus, those offensive numbers are just crazy [laughs] that they are 12th now over the last, uh, last five weeks, and that was coming into yesterday. It was a solid...
17:04
It wasn't a flashy, but it was a solid offensive performance from Bryce Young, who in defeat goes 19 to 34 for a buck 91 touchdown, uh, and a pick there.
17:12
Uh, go continue with our week 15, uh, look ahead lines with the openers now out. We'll, we'll do Bill's lines here in a second, Kelly. I wanna make sure we get to that this segment.
17:20
But first, uh, Dolphins, Texans here with the Texans coming off a bye. Miami gets, oh, so fortunate.
17:27
The, the fact that they allowed nine and a half yards per play in the first half and over 15 yards of completion to a Jets offense that was 29th on offense over the previous five weeks.
17:36
I- In a sense it was a pathetic defensive showing, the lack of tackling, the lack of any sort of tight coverage in the secondary yesterday for Miami. But they get it, they get an awfully lucky break. They get by.
17:48
They needed the fourth and goal touchdown and two-point conversion, two at a Tyree Kill, two at Tucker Below to Jan Old Waddle to tie the game.
17:55
Then a huge kickoff return from Malik Washington to set up the game-tying field goal to force overtime. At that point, the Jets' defense just looked gassed, had nothing left.
18:03
Two at a Johnny Smith from 10 yards to win the game in overtime and save four people in Survivor, two of which were on the same, uh, two of which were on, uh, the same individual who had two entries left.
18:14
And Moneyline Parlays, like you and I, Kelly, all over the place, uh, depe- depending on, uh, on how you bet Miami. But it's weird. Now they've got some life here. They, they were plus four.
18:24
Just updating the, the odds here. They were plus 425 to make the playoffs. Now four to one. Still alive at six and seven.
18:30
I, I've, I've really am tempted to be back on the Miami train simply because y- this Houston team I've been betting against, and it f- felt really negative compared to where the market has been for the better part of the last six, seven weeks.
18:42
I just don't really believe in Houston with the lack of an offensive line presence, with the struggles of, uh, C.J. Stroud, even as receivers start to get healthy.
18:50
And you always wonder, a team like Miami that was left for dead should have lost. Now they've got a little bit of life. Do you find, do you see the better showing from them now that they had- Yeah...
19:00
the massive scare, and they understand that these are all, these are all these win it in sort of situations. So I, I, I sort of, I was looking at my numbers before the week, and I had Miami a favorite.
19:09
I, I know they probably are not, and especially after yesterday, uh, you would, you would think the market would maybe sour a little bit on them with two really uninspiring performances in a row.
19:17
Yeah, this is, um, that's interesting to hear where, where you had 'em a- a- and how you've been approaching Houston 'cause I think I've been kinda on the opposite side.
19:24
This opened most, I think this was two and a half across the board yesterday. We're out to three most places.
19:30
This is a game, uh, that I had circled, I don't know, probably six weeks ago, Ben, of this was gonna be hammer Houston for me, uh, in this spot.
19:40
But I think everything that you just said about what, what Houston's been going through, a team that I was very high on pre-season that I've just, it seem- seemingly every week have had to adjust downward just a little bit because of the things you talked about, the offensive line struggles, Stroud struggles, defense, uh, being up and down.
19:57
And th- this Houston team, I just think, yeah, you don't really know what you're getting with right now.
20:02
And, and Miami, I, I, you know, I backed 'em yesterday, but like you said, the past two weeks I think for a team that was still in it and still, uh, and still with some hope at the playoffs, uh, in getting guys back and healthy, I expected to see better performances, uh, not only out of 'em yesterday, but then, I mean, Green Bay, I bet the Packers in that game, but I didn't think it was gonna be that easy for Green Bay to roll, roll by the Dolphins.
20:25
So n- you know, I'm not too inspired, but I, I'm, I'm kinda with you. I still think there's something there potentially with Miami. So long way of saying this is gonna end up being a big stay away from me.
20:35
Initial thought was Houston. I think I'd swing more towards d- Miami as, as this is hitting threes, uh, across the board. But I, I have a feeling this will be a big stay away from me.
20:45
It, it's a spot I, especially indoor track, too, for Miami. Yeah. Uh, granted Houston off the by, but, uh, still a lot of issues on the Texas side.
20:53
28 offensive run blocking, dead last in, in quarterback pressures allowed for Houston this year. Uh, granted Miami just, I mean, they, they just no showed on defense. They were terrible.
21:03
Couldn't get any pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I, I, it might be some blind faith here, but that is the one position where I, I believe you get a game Miami performance o- on the road, especially getting a full three.
21:13
I, that's the thing I like the most, um, so far to start the week here with these. Still alive and kicking- Yeah, I think-... the Miami Dolphins here at 67. I think you gotta look over a little bit, too, right?
21:20
Like total wise. I, it's just w- what you've seen out of Miami's defense, what you've seen, a- a- I mean, out of Houston's at time as well. 47 feels a little light. I, I, I'd probably be leaning over as well.
21:31
And that's the, the, really the fascinating battle. It's the Miami offense that has, I mean, again, even if, had they were to have lost yesterday, would not have, would not have been on Tua Tagovailoa.
21:39
Another great passing day. 33 of 47, three 31, and two touchdowns. Uh, so you have an offense that's been top five trending over the last month, month and a half.
21:47
That's part of why for me, you look at the numbers and I am so pro Miami. It's just you then watch 'em and you see [laughs] just the disdain that they, they appear to play with on defense. Just no, no passion or emotion.
21:58
The last two weeks of missed tackles left and right.
22:00
But the offense, it, it's, that's the matchup against Houston's defense that has really kept them in a lot of these games and gotten them to the finish line for a team that I'd, I, I'd argue is, is way worse than their division leading record would indicate.
22:13
Uh, it's just a matter of can the Miami defense show up here? And we are seeing at least that total here, uh, sit pretty static.
22:18
There hasn't been o- one, one move either way, Kelly, on or off that 47 so far, even though, uh, I think one offshore is showing 47 and a half there. Yep.
22:26
Yeah, that's, uh, that's where I'd be looking, uh, for, for that one. Yep. We will still have the big game to come. We will talk in our final segment of the show, the Buffalo-Detroit mega tilt coming up.
22:36
One of the 4:25 Eastern games, uh, still to come here. Was just looking at, uh [laughs] can, can we, can we do Jets-Jaguars in like a second? I, I laughed as I did this yesterday and made the Jets minus three, Kelly.
22:47
[laughs] Uh, yeah, that's, uh, I believe that's right where they're at. You said Jets three? They're at, wow. Well, that, that makes it easy. Yeah, they're, yeah.
22:53
It's Jets three, three and a half, and that is a game, just like the Jaguars this past week, I have no interest in watching.
23:00
I mean, I, I feel like a glutton for punishment for watching so much of that Jaguar game yesterday. I, I might be tempted at the Jaguars. How many more weeks do we get to bet against the Jets? I don't know.
23:08
Either way, Chris Fallica, the Bear, he joins us next to talk college football playoff here on A Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Looking for some action?
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23:46
Still to come, we will talk our opening thoughts, Bills-Lions, Packers-Seahawks, Steelers-Eagles. Kelly, Fidler's great game for week 15. But it was a massive college football weekend.
23:56
We have to get to our, our man Chris Fallica joining us- Yeah... on the Progressive guest line.
24:00
I'm sure, Kelly, you were awfully, uh, just enthralled listening to our off-air conversation about, uh, the, the Delta, uh, the Delta, uh, qualifications for, uh, stats for next year. Hey.
24:08
Two, two big Delta club- A big, big line... uh, big shots, okay? Sorry, it was in, uh, it was a conversation I could not be a part of. I'm just not as cool as you two, okay? [laughs] Come on.
24:16
It, look, it, it's not like we, we necessarily enjoy all the, the travel. We just, we're used to it. [laughs] And Chris Fallica joins us fresh off a, a, you know, BOI-SLC-JFK routing, uh, from- [laughs]...
24:26
after, after being there at the Mountain West title game. Chris, how, how you doing?
24:29
How did the, uh, the weekend end up treating you here with a, uh, with, with the zany college football, uh, happenings and the 12 team bracket officially out now?
24:37
Yeah, it, it wor- it worked out pretty good from a, from a wagering standpoint.
24:40
I, I, I did not get my, uh, my Notre Dame to be the five seed, uh, bet home that I had made on Thursday as I discussed with, uh, Kelly and Gil.
24:48
And, uh, was a little, little surprised at some of the, the seedings there and Texas getting the five. And, uh,
24:54
yeah, I, I, I had my fears a couple of weeks ago that this committee wasn't necessarily doing a great job and did not instill a great deal of confidence, and I think those fears were kind of, uh, reaffirmed yesterday.
25:05
Not necessarily with the, with the SMUs versus Alabama versus Ole Miss versus a Indiana type deal. I, I, they're, they're all flawed teams, and I think
25:16
you can make a very good case and a very likely case and a very probable case based on power ratings and projected numbers and efficiency ratings that Alabama and Ole Miss are better than SMU.
25:28
Uh, but the committee kind of put themselves in a corner last week, this having SMU ranked ahead of both of those teams, where, uh, they were telling you that right now they're in.
25:37
We think they're better than, than those teams. And they also went out and said that, "Yeah, we really don't wanna penalize anybody for a conference championship game." So, uh, it was there for them
25:48
to, to, to basically leave things as is, and, and they did. And, and that's fine. I mean, uh, it, it is what it is. We're gonna watch, we're gonna bet. The biggest problem I had with the bracket was
26:00
how did they put this thing up? How did they rank these teams and say, "Okay, yeah, this is good. This is right. Uh, we, we got it." You got Oregon, unknown, only undefeated team in the country.
26:10
Number one, you're gonna put them in a bracket where they're gonna have to face either Tennessee or Ohio State and then potentially beat Ohio State again. Then potentially win, win that game.
26:20
If they win that game, you're gonna play Texas in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas in the semifinal.
26:26
And then if you win that game, then we're gonna have you go to Atlanta and probably play Georgia for the national championship.
26:32
Like, we, rem- remember, like, in the past few however many years, like it's been the, the committee whenever they were in the four-team system, it was we're gonna go out of our way to, like, not put the number one seed at a, at a home field disadvantage.
26:43
Well, uh, they not only did they do it once, they potentially [laughs] did it twice. So that was my biggest thing.
26:49
And then, uh, I, I guess the only other thing back to SMU was it's clear that SMU was the last team in the field.
26:55
So, like, the fact that they were not the 12 seed bothered me because I mean, Clemson had to be ranked ahead of them because of w- winning the conference title game and, and they won.
27:03
But the biggest issue was is, uh, you, you did not w- you, you would've had to have...
27:07
If you're gonna put SMU in, you wanna have them right behind Clemson, then we'd have had to put them behind all those FET- SEC teams, then you couldn't put them into...
27:15
Then you're kind of pinning themselves into a corner. No doubt.
27:18
And Oregon, if you look at some of the odds now just on the to-make markets for the title game, Oregon, uh, to make is plus 190 just, just to get there now with the path that they have. Yeah.
27:27
Texas is the one that it's, it's the fascinating now case study just from the betting perspective, Chris. You get a Texas team that just luck boxes their way into the five seed- [laughs]...
27:35
and you go from four to one to now they're co-favorites at plus 350.
27:38
I'm sure the general betting sentiment, especially after what people saw last and how Texas had all these opportunities to put away Georgia early, couldn't do it, the missed kicks, the, the, the untimely mistakes end up losing that game.
27:51
But I, I kind of...
27:52
I, I can't help but wonder as, as these couple of weeks go on until the playoffs start, will, will we kind of just forget that they are still arguably the best defense in the country, statistically showed that most of the year.
28:02
And, you know, plus 350, oddsmakers are now really making you pay the tax here on getting the five seed, but- Mm-hmm... it's funny.
28:08
We went from this whole stretch of, "All right, hey, Notre Dame, Penn State, those teams will be in awesome positions were they to get the five and are worthy of, of these longer priced bets," to do we feel the same way about Texas even if the odds are shorter when, I mean, the path is as, as gift of a path as you could have being 11-point favorites as we already know to start things out at home against Clemson?
28:28
Yeah, I, I, I don't, I don't expect them to have much trouble with Clemson. But I think moving forward, you're, you're right. I mean, offensively they have some issues.
28:35
Uh, you're gonna be facing some very good, uh, defenses the rest of the way. And who knows if Weisner can, can get going. And certainly they, they were unable to run the ball on Georgia.
28:44
Uh, Quinn Ewers still floats some balls out there. Uh, their defense will keep them in a game against anyone, but it, it's just hard to be able to, like, back a single team on that top half of the, of the draw.
28:56
Because I mean, they're all going to be basically, uh, toss-up games in the, the, the two quarterfinals there and then the, the semi up top there just, just with how the, the bracket went. Like, Texas is one of those...
29:09
Like I even pointed this out too, like there's seven at large teams i- in the playoff. Three of them didn't beat a team that's currently ranked. So, like, to, to award Texas the five seed and kind of...
29:21
Again, look, I know you gotta ding Ohio State for losing at home against Michigan, but they still had the best resume of any of those other options for the five seed.
29:28
So I, I was a little surprised they went Tex- Would, would I be surprised if Texas were playing, uh, in the national championship game? No, I would not.
29:34
Would I be surprised, uh, if, if they were to lose, uh, to the Oregon/Tennessee/Ohio State winner? No, because they, they'll beat Arizona State. Uh, you talked about, like, Notre Dame and, and Penn State.
29:46
Like, I think we were all... I don't wanna say we all.
29:49
I, I was just kind of questioning how good these teams are, and these would kind of be teams that I thought might be, uh, very teams that we wanna play against in the college football playoff.
29:58
But to, to have that, that draw now where you've got two, probably the three, the three weakest teams maybe in the playoff, uh, Indiana, SMU, and Boise on that side of the draw, like it really, really opens up.
30:14
And again, with Carson Beck now out for Georgia and their inconsistencies this year, like trying to figure out a way to maybe, uh, monetize that.
30:21
Like is there, in, in those markets, like is there a way to, uh, either play Penn State or Notre Dame to reach the semi and maybe not, uh, win it all?
30:29
Uh, because I, I know those markets exist, and I heard you and Kelly talking about, like, over-unders, uh, for total win totals.
30:34
But, uh, I think Georgia's gonna be hard to beat and hard to deny getting to the national title game. But I certainly would not argue with anyone that wants to say, "Hey, look at the body of work over the year.
30:44
This is a team that- Managed to lose games, be in close games, nearly lost to Georgia Tech, and now they don't have Carson Beck.
30:50
I, look, I totally get it, but, uh, I, I think where they are now, I, I think they're gonna be hard to at least deny getting to the college game. Oh, let's go Georgia. I forgot I bet 'em a few months ago.
30:59
[laughs] There you go. So let's g- let's go Dogs. Let's go Dogs. Uh, Chris, those, uh- Much better price then. Yeah, I did. We, a slightly better price. I think plus 650, so I like it.
31:07
The, uh, we've had the opening round numbers out. Anything jump out to you as a bet in these, uh, first game- Yeah... first wave of games that we're gonna get? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
31:15
I, I bet two things, and, and I think the numbers are still there. Maybe, I think maybe you lo- lost a half a point on Indiana Notre Dame. I played under 51 and a half. I think 51 is still available, so that's fine.
31:26
Look, we saw Indiana against the two defen- the only two teams with a defense worth anything all year long, uh, Michigan and Ohio State. Absolutely manhandled them. They struggled to run the ball on either team.
31:39
Had 150 yards in the game against Ohio State.
31:41
Now you're gonna go to Notre Dame, who's a defensive-minded team, and they, and they're gonna be looking to kinda run the ball with love and control the clock and keep, uh, IU off the field.
31:49
So I played under 51 in Indiana, oh, Indiana, uh, Notre Dame, and I played under 47 and a half with, uh, Tennessee Ohio State. I'm pretty sure that number is still out there, uh, in places.
32:00
Look, the Ohio State offensive line is a, a big issue. Certainly go against the Tennessee defensive line with Pierce. Uh, that's certainly the, uh, the strength of the Vols team.
32:08
And I think going on the road, I would expect Tennessee to struggle, uh, w- with Ohio State.
32:13
That pass rush, we saw Tennessee go on the road and Georgia really struggle, uh, to move the ball for, for much of the game, uh, struggle to move the ball at Arkansas.
32:21
Uh, the, the game against Vandy and Nashville was really the only time they've gone on the road and actually, uh, looked good o- offensively.
32:27
But, uh, I, I think they're gonna give Ohio State's offense some problems, and I think the flip is very, uh, very likely.
32:33
I'd be stunned, uh, i- if either team got to 30 here, and, uh, may- me may not even be in a game here where both teams get to 20. So, uh, I played- Fox... under 47 and a half. Yeah.
32:42
Fox's Chris Fallica with us right now on a Numbers Game from the Bear Bets pod as well. Follow him @ChrisFallica.
32:46
Before we let you go, Chris, is, of these four Dogs, you have a very good sense in general for what ends up kinda being, like, that, that public square Dog side that everybody- Mm-hmm... talks themselves into.
32:56
I mean, our, I think our first glance, we probably think Tennessee simply because- Yeah, yeah... so much negative sentiment on Ohio State. Do you, you feel the same way on that of the four? Yeah.
33:05
Yeah, I, I, I think that's probably right, just because it, it, the SEC and, and they, they do have a, a, A good quality win over Alabama.
33:12
Uh, the defense will travel, and the la- the last impression that we saw, uh, is certainly not a very positive one from what we saw from, uh, Will Howard and then Ohio State offense and that offensive line.
33:21
So I think Tennessee probably will be that public Dog. It was funny, W- uh, Will Hill asked me, uh, last night on the Should've Bet More podcast, like, which one did I think had the best chance of pulling upset?
33:30
And it's probably SMU, uh, just because they do have some pieces on offense to move the ball, and we saw Oregon with a similar type of offense, uh, to kind of spread dual threat quarterback.
33:40
We saw Oregon really gash them and were unable to stop them. So SMU might be the one I'd take a shot on the money line. As an eight-and-a-half point Dog right now going to Penn State.
33:49
Chris, always a pleasure catching up with you, sir. We will, we'll talk with you again soon. Thanks as always. Great. Take care, Ben.
33:55
All right, we have one more segment still to get to as we thank Chris Fallica for joining us on our Progressive guest line.
33:59
Major NFL matchups get to our G Bank best bets as well on the other side as we wrap up the Monday edition of a Numbers Game.
34:06
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:22
Wrapping up the Monday edition of a Numbers Game. Still so much more to come on a, a loaded Monday of reaction around the network.
34:29
It is Money Moves, Tony Bon and Tony Jeff Schwartz coming up right after us here at noon Eastern. Stick around for Prop Points with John Hanson, 2:00 PM, Make It Rain with Adam Shine, 3:00 to 4:00 Eastern.
34:39
And we've got a few more NFL games, Kevin, to, to get to- Right... as far as our, uh, our thoughts. We didn't get to all of them today since we wanted to get a lot of the college football reaction as well.
34:48
But, uh, certainly still some marquee matchups we've got to talk about, and let's get to Buffalo at Detroit, which is arguably the game of week 15 with Detroit off that, uh, that wild 34-31 Thursday Night Football win over the Packers, where they either push or do not cover three-and-a-half point u- under, uh, th- half-point favorite spread there against Green Bay.
35:06
Buffalo off of the 44-42 loss at the Rams yesterday is three-and-a-half point favorites, where if you would've told us before the game Bills would have 8.2 yards per play, Josh Allen would have over 400 total yards and six touchdowns, and that they would score 42 points, you would just say, "How, how much did they win by?"
35:22
[laughs] Yeah. Not, not even a question of, uh, even if they, even did they cover or did they win the game. But, uh, just a, a unbelievably horrible performance by the defense, could not get the Rams off the field.
35:33
And the mismanagement by Sean McDermott at the end of the game.
35:35
I know that might've been a minor thing, but e- even, when even Tom Brady is, uh, is able to distinctly point out that you just made a, a, an incredible coaching gaffe by burning a timeout when you had all three left.
35:46
I mean, to sneak in that situation and then not just to get up right to the line again and sneak one more time when you're at the six-inch line, uh, that was pretty brutal from Sean McDermott, who has been, been solid this year all the way around.
35:57
But it seems like he's good for, like, one to two really, really bad in-game decisions a year, Kelly, and that was one of them. 'Cause it really put...
36:04
Like, Buffalo had, had a really good chance to get the ball back there. Would've been down by two, uh, and that game certainly was not over. But, uh, a big misplay there in the final minute.
36:13
Yeah, li- like you said, I, it doesn't feel... It feels like it's been a while since we've, uh, [laughs] talked about McDermott, uh, screwing up one of these situations.
36:20
And I, I think that's just what you, what you get with him from time to time. It is...
36:23
I, I, honestly, the team just as a whole just looked kinda, like, shell-shocked that Josh Allen didn't get in [laughs] you know what I mean? On that, on that rush. So I, yeah, I'm with you.
36:32
I think that was the kinda problem there at, uh, at the end. It was definitely, definitely messed this up. But man, Bills, Lions, we've been waiting for this game. Oh, yeah.
36:41
Um, this is, I mean, look, this is a tough stretch for Buffalo, kinda putting them to the test.
36:45
But, but like you went over with the t- uh, with the stats, man, that is, I, the other way to flip it was way I f- way I worded it earlier.
36:52
What situation did we see the Rams winning and, [laughs] and then the odds for MVP actually getting shorter for Josh Allen? That's how impressive the Bills were in the loss.
37:01
Uh, I talked a little bit about this earlier with the Texans. This was a game I've had Lions side circled in this game for a long time. We talked, uh, heard Gil bring this up last, uh, last week.
37:11
But Buffalo stopping the run, that is something they still struggle to do. Lions do it better than anybody else out there. I think that's gonna be an issue.
37:19
And then, uh, on the flip side though, Ben, I, I think what we saw this past week I, I mean, it was, it was a spot, right?
37:25
It was the terrible spot, the, uh, the dreaded spot for Buffalo heading into LA, and how could they possibly perform so well? And the offense looked great even without a couple of their key pieces.
37:35
So I've got bets side and total on this one, my friend. Lions on the side. Stuck to my guns, still bet it last night on the opener. Two and a half, but this is actually coming down. There are twos- Yeah...
37:45
one and a halfs available on this game now. Not totally shocking to see Buffalo getting some love here early, uh, in the week.
37:51
And I bet it over, o- over a 52 and a half, uh, thinking that was gonna be a dumb bet 'cause I'd get a better number at some point this week [laughs] but we're out to 53 and a half and 54 already most places.
38:02
So, uh, monitor this total. Should be interesting to see where it moves throughout the week, but I'm expecting we get another [laughs] shootout here in Detroit next week against two of the better teams in the NFL.
38:11
This could easily be a Super Bowl preview. Uh, the concern would, more than anything, just be Buffalo off of that loss. You, you figure a better defensive performance.
38:19
I, I've, I mean, I thought the line, the, the appropriate line would be Lions minus three here going into the week, and, uh, numbers-wise I, I, uh, gave the edge there to Detroit, would've made the game three and a half.
38:27
It's just, you know, [laughs] Buffalo after, uh, just getting destroyed by the, the Rams on the defensive side of the ball, what sort of d- adjustments do you see from them now coming back?
38:36
But it is, with the fast track in Detroit, just like we saw in LA, we did... Uh, that was a clear point of exposure there for the Bills' defense. How does that now play out? I get why.
38:45
I mean, the over, I certainly would not be trying to get out in front of that train and looking under, to say the least, Kelly, on that one.
38:50
So you're going Li- so Lions, who are two-point favorites right now in the market, you're going Lions and over out there for that one.
38:57
We'll sneak in a couple more here before we get to our best bets at the end of the show.
39:00
Green Bay/Seattle is our Sunday night tilt this week in Green Bay after the aforementioned tight three-point loss to Detroit on Thursday night. But Seattle, the, the streak continues as, uh, they...
39:13
What was more impressive for me than anything, Kelly, in a game where they, they win comfortably as three-point underdogs, the market was in love with Arizona.
39:20
I like-- I had Arizona in the, in the contest, uh, in the one that uses the Westgate line. It's laying two and a half. Uh, that one goes down in flames.
39:26
But this Seattle team that has really struggled to get any sort of push with its offensive line- Yep... just dominated up front. Zach Charbonnet, 22 carries, 134 yards, two touchdowns.
39:36
Geno Smith, 24, 30, 233 and a score.
39:40
A Seattle team that was 24th the previous five weeks on overall offense, had been one of the worst O-lines in football, have really picked it up over the last couple of weeks now, and, and the offense was tremendous in that win.
39:52
Defense also for the second straight matchup in three, uh, in three weeks against Kyler Murray, really confused him. Two picks for Kyler led to 17 points in under four and a half minutes for the Seahawks.
40:03
And, uh, we know it's been a house of horrors for Green Bay over the years, Kelly. As a, as a, as a Packer fan, a lot of negative memories there. So a game I will likely stay out of.
40:11
I, I thought this should be Green Bay north of three, especially with the situation coming off of a, you know, a tight game where they were live, arguably had, had really good opportunities to win the game against Detroit.
40:22
Uh, and, and I mean, to me, this, this should be north of three.
40:24
I think I made it four and a half, but that was before yesterday, and you have to continue to upgrade Seattle with how, how well they are trending under the rookie head coach, Mike McDonald. No, you do.
40:33
You do have to continue to upgrade them. Uh, Seattle was a team I was pretty high on preseason. I think a lot of what we're seeing now, Ben, is a lot what I thought we were gonna see earlier in the season.
40:42
This has just taken a little longer for this team to come together. I think the defense, especially on the defensive side of the ball, right?
40:47
You expected that with the hiring of McDonald, that this defense was gonna get better. The offensive line was always the big question.
40:54
And before the season, to ha- uh, uh, the beginning part of the season when they had injuries to deal with, too, and it was dreadful, I'm with you.
41:01
That was the biggest surprise to me of yesterday in that game, was how much of a push they had up front. But this team starting to click is not too shocking to me, but man, I still like the Packers. [laughs] Yeah.
41:13
Sunday night, this Packers team, they... Th- th- when we talk ceiling, they got one of the highest in the NFL.
41:18
I think this is a team that they put it all together, they could make a pretty deep run, uh, here at some point. So this game opened everywhere under three. Packers under three on the road.
41:27
I, I, I don't think anywhere was hanging a three yesterday. We're pretty much out to three everywhere now. The two and a half, uh, you're seeing on your screen if you're watching at home.
41:34
Circa, last two and a half I'm seeing on my board here juiced at minus 120. I laid a money line with Packers on the opener. I do like, I think we're catching Seahawks at a little bit of a high.
41:44
Like how the Packers team is playing. Do like them heading into Seattle, but man, this is another massive game for the NFC West.
41:50
I've got some Seahawks futures in play, so a little bit of a, little bit of a hedge, I guess, in that, in that, uh, uh, uh, perspective. But, um, man, big game we've got on Sunday Night Football. Can't wait for it.
42:01
Like, you also wonder situationally for Seattle off of... And you think about the last, what, five games for them. Overtime against the Rams, crazy comeback to save the season against the Niners.
42:10
Two wins sandwich ag- against Arizona, sandwiched around that come from behind win against the Jets. Mm-hmm. It's all been tight games for Seattle. Packers with the rest edge. You, you favor that situationally.
42:21
Now, and Seattle does have a little bit of breathing room now. I wouldn't say it's all... It's not comfortable by any means, as they've gone to eight and five.
42:27
Here they are minus 110 favorites to win, uh, the NFC West there.
42:31
Uh, Green Bay, it, it, it's also telling, too, when you have a team like Seattle that was so dominant in a division matchup, and yet, uh, the early market move has been against them here out to those three, Kelly, like you were mentioning.
42:41
I will sneak in one more here. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, where the Steelers, as we already talked about, they do win and cover 27-14. Uh, Eagles still had 6.7 yards per carry.
42:51
They, they exploited their edge against a bad Panthers rush defense. It was just everything else. It just felt no-showy. It just felt a super, like, super lollygagging for most of that game for Philadelphia.
43:02
They got the stops when it mattered late in the game. But in retrospect, it, it seemed clear they were kind of in that let's just get through the game, look ahead to next week.
43:10
I, I, I certainly believe Philadelphia should be, uh, nearing a touchdown favorite in this spot. And I- Really?... I don't think they're any there, anywhere close to that. Yeah, I really do.
43:18
I have them six and a half here. Okay, yeah. We're seeing four and a half, uh, market, market wide basically right now. This was, I th- well, this opened a little bit less than that.
43:28
Eh, no, f- four or five, depending on your shop. We're pretty much four and a half everywhere now. That, I, I'm surprised, a little surprised to hear you say.
43:34
The Steelers, Steelers fans, I, I know you've been honest basically this whole season. I can only take the Steelers here, uh, i- if I was gonna play- Right... this game, Ben, but it will be a pass for me. I, I get it.
43:44
Mi- uh, Mike Tomlin is an underdog. [laughs] Where, where have we heard that before? Uh, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, uh, it's, uh, the s- the six and a half point, uh, the potential spread.
43:52
You always dock that because of, uh, what we just talked about, with how good Tomlin has been in that situation. So, uh, sitting kind of in that no man's land for right now.
44:00
As we wrap up the show, time to get to our best bets. As always, brought to you by G Bank, official bank of Visa- G Bank Visa Signature Card, your best bet.
44:07
Delivering 1% cash back rewards on eligible gaming transactions, 2% cash back rewards on el- el- they're eligible purchases. And Kelly, you've got a couple other, uh, bets to, uh, to throw in the chamber.
44:16
I did mention Clemson Texas, my early college football playoff bet. Looking under 52 for that tilt, uh, Kelly. Yeah, nothing in college football for me yet. I know that's gonna surprise a lot of people out there.
44:26
Uh, NFL, though. Man, more openers for me bet this week, Ben, than, man, I don't know, it's been a month or something like that. Lions, m- laying two and a half bills, bills and lions over.
44:36
Broncos laying four and a half. That's, like, four everywhere now. Packers money line. And then Tyler Hero, most improved player. [laughs] Nice. Let's go. Tyler Hero. Why not?
44:47
We'll talk more about the NBA tomorrow, 'cause we have the NBA Cup quarterfinals tomorrow. But for Kelly Bidlin, I'm Ben Wilson, saying so long on this Monday edition of A Numbers Game.
44:55
It's Money Moves coming up right after this. [upbeat music]
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