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Feb 10, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 10, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 10, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
Let's go. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:08
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Midlin. How are you, sir? I'm doing okay.
0:22
[laughs] You doing okay? It wasn't a great Super Bowl, but, uh, yeah. Hey, uh, by the way, Carl Sack on the NBA later, Matt Grissom on college baseball.
0:32
A little college baseball preview with bets coming up, and Jason Weingarten in studio. Let us discuss Super Bowl LVIX, uh, out the gates.
0:40
And let me just say congratulations to Philadelphia Eagles fans, anybody who had the Eagles in the game yesterday.
0:46
Um, Eagles, a comprehensive, comprehensive 40 to 22 win over the Chiefs in a final score that does not indicate the shellacking that it was. Um, sort of reminds me of, uh, '80s and early '90s blowouts- Mm-hmm...
1:05
that, uh, for those of us of a certain age, we became so used to, whether it was, you know, the Bears over the Patriots, whether it was the Niners over the Broncos, the Skins over the Broncos or the Bills, the Cowboys beating the Bills, whatever it is, whatever it was, take your pick.
1:18
This one sort of reminded me of the, uh, the Washington Buffalo one, where the score, the, the final score ends up more cosmetic than it actually was. That one was a 24 to nothing start, and then ended up 37-24.
1:28
This Eagles Super Bowl feels so much more built to last than the last one, uh, the Nick Foles Philly, uh, special one where I, where I've said, where I've said f- through the years, I said, "Where the Eagles won their Super Bowl using replay rules from the future."
1:43
Well, let me just start by saying T for three on Twitter, I will, I will now say this was not a Super Bowl that they won using replay rules from the future. I, I owe that to Eagles fans.
1:53
Also, Brian Grace and Joe Pita, all the Eagles fans that I know in, in my life, uh, mazel tov to you. This was just, um, if you could have given the MVP to Vic Fangio, you probably would've.
2:05
It's also a, um, it's also sort of a, a reflection of how difficult it is to win an MVP for any individual player on defense when you have such a blowout like this, but not one single guy sticks out.
2:19
Josh Sweat for a moment there had one and a half sacks early, and you're like, "Hey, maybe Josh Sweat." But you just... It, it was such a big blowout, and it was so spread out, that you, that was never gonna happen.
2:29
Ah, man. And so Jalen, Jalen Hurts deserves that MVP. He would've won it two years ago had the Eagles won. I'm glad you brought this up early.
2:36
It's pr- it's probably the betting story of the game, I guess, or one of the betting stories, the MVP. I, I th- I thought it still should've gone to one of the defensive guys.
2:43
Give it to, give it to Sweat or Cooper DeJean, I don't care. It's reflective of how good the d- entire defense was the entire night. I know that there's multiple guys, and that's the problem.
2:52
I think it would've been weird if you gave it to one, though. But like, s- I told the guys this in the back.
2:56
I'm like, "I d- I don't think the answer of us wanting to reward the defense, but there's too many good options, is to give it to the quarterback." Yeah, but Hurts was great. He was great.
3:05
It's also, like, J- Jake Elliott was great on, on p- uh, field goals that he had absolutely no pressure to make because they were up huge. Did, did, did you just compare Jake Elliott to Jalen Hurts?
3:13
Is that what you just did? [laughs] I, the game was over before it began. Let me just say, B- and we always go through these games, and we will here, uh, but let me just say this.
3:22
Uh, usually when I come in with guessing lines on any given week, or during the playoffs, you know, some games that are really good, yeah, I have this long list of notes.
3:30
This is one of the shorter, [laughs] this is one of the shorter capsules, uh, of the season, 'cause the second half just becomes, uh, uh, ridiculous. But let me just say this.
3:39
W- what a story for the Eagles, too, because before the season started, remember, a- and I'll raise my hand 'cause I was one of the people saying this, Tony Sirianni, remember the, the comment that some of us made was- Nick...
3:51
he- uh, Nick, why do I keep calling him that? Oh, no. [laughs] Um, Nick Sirianni. Thank you. Nick Siri- that's why you're here, Kelly. [laughs] Appreciate that.
4:00
Nick Sirianni was, remember, he was the guy where, like, c- first coach fired. Yeah. Remember this came up? Yeah, yeah. First coach fired because why?
4:08
Because now he had Kellen Moore as his offensive coordinator and Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. So he would be the one most sort of susceptible to an early season firing if things went sideways.
4:19
Two and two was kind of sideways. They won 16 of their last 17, so shout out to Nick Sirianni for that. And then there's Jalen Hurts. Let us not let time forget, right?
4:30
Jalen Hurts, who, I don't wanna use the word shunned, but at least was replaced, right, by Tua in the national championship game against Georgia, Tua Tagovailoa, uh, at the moment of, of reckoning for Alabama in that- Mm-hmm...
4:44
championship game, and Tua famously comes in and wins it for him. Um, then he goes to Oklahoma, handles the whole thing like a gentleman. By the way, at a young age, Jalen Hurts does.
4:55
And if you remember at the time at Oklahoma, there was some sentiment of, "Wow, he's, he's playing really well." Like, it was almost like a shock to some people that he played really well at Oklahoma.
5:06
Then he gets drafted in the second round, and do you remember what we said about Jalen Hurts when he got drafted in the second round?
5:12
'Cause remember, it was Jalen Reagor in the first round, and then Jalen Hurts early in the second, and they were both over-drafted, we said. Mm. Right? And in one case, we were correct.
5:21
But Jalen Hurts, early second round, "Oh, they're over-drafting him. He should never have been picked this early," kind of thing. I mean, we had, we definitely had no idea what kind of passer he would be in the NFL.
5:30
I'm just saying, like, with this team, they have overcome a lot of conventional, not overcome, but they have bucked a lot of, uh, conventional wisdom.
5:39
And again, I can only say congratulations because we haven't even mentioned the word Chiefs yet, because this was just one of the, one of the great blowouts in modern history- Yeah...
5:49
really, really since the Carolina Denver game, I guess. It was, I, I mean, just from the Eagles' side first, right? Yeah. It just extremely, extremely impressive.
5:57
For a team that, um, yeah, I, you know, I think we go back to earlier in the season, I think I was, I felt like I was higher on than, than a lot with, especially when they went through the early season struggles.
6:08
But then also when it got to later in the season, was lower on than a lot of people, where, where I think there did become some Eagles excitement of how good this team could be. I-I wasn't fully sold on it.
6:17
Yeah, I wasn't fully sold on it. And oh boy, w- I mean, last night with everything defensively, offensively, it was a overwhelming statement. It starts after a touchback.
6:28
Well, first of all, national anthem well under for us. Easy-peasy, by five seconds. Coin toss, tails, KC wins, they defer. And after a touchback, a lot of props, uh, settling in those few sentences.
6:39
Saquon starts with four yards. Remember, three and a half was his line for the first rush. Starts with four yards. Uh, the Eagles end up fourth and two at midfield. They go to shotgun.
6:49
Hurts to Brown deep, but an offensive pass interference call on A.J. Brown when his, uh, hand hits Trent McDuffie in the face. And a lot of people who are on the Eagles side are like, "Oh, here we go." Yeah.
7:00
"Here we go." But his hand did hit his face, you have to say that. Brady didn't like that one. Uh, they punt. KC punts. Philly gets it back, third and five at the KC 42. Hurts airmails Goedert on third and five.
7:13
They call a horrible te- uh, ticky-tack unnecessary roughness on McDuffie. Um, two plays later to Dotson for 28.
7:21
A lot of people had Dotson first touchdown, including our own, uh, Isaiah Vonrinkel, uh, at as long as, like, 70 to one, or some people even had it longer. That was brutal. Down at the one.
7:31
Hurts in on the Tuchus Push from the one. Seven to nothing, Eagles. 6:15 left in the first quarter. KC three and out. KC can't do anything with the football. Philadelphia third and 10 at the KC 30.
7:41
Hurts then picked by Brian Cook. And if you're a Kansas City backer in this moment, you're like, "Wait a minute. This... How are we only down seven? Is this gonna happen again?" Uh, the answer is no.
7:52
KC from their own two. By the way, at, at total yards at this point, in a seven to nothing game, was 119 to 19 in favor of the Eagles. Another three and out. Uh, Philly comes down. Elliott, 48-yard field goal.
8:05
It's 10 to nothing. 10 to nothing, Eagles, with 8:38 left in the second quarter. Now, remember, this propped up the stat. Uh, this po- uh, this popped up the stat.
8:13
Chiefs have trailed all five Super Bowls now in the Mahomes era by 10 points. Yeah. In other words, they had them right where they wanted them. [laughs] That's right. 'Cause they won three of the previous four.
8:22
Then KC gets the ball back. And this is when it kind of went from, "We have a game, perhaps," 'cause even then it was perhaps, 'cause KC still couldn't do anything with the ball. They couldn't do anything, yeah.
8:33
To- But I'm with you... to, "Oh, this could be done quickly." Yeah. Cooper DeJean picks... It was sack, sack, Mahomes picked by Cooper DeJean. 38 yards to the house.
8:45
17 to nothing, Eagles, with 7:03 left in the second quarter. KC, another three and out. Then Philadelphia, second and 26 at their own 29. Hurts incomplete intended for Saquon.
8:57
They call a really ticky-tack unnecessary roughness call on Bolton. And you're like, "Wow, all of the Chiefs refer- officiating, uh, luck is coming home to roost." Um, but by the way, Philly still had to punt.
9:10
But remember in the moment, like, the officials might have been a story. Well, it never was after that. I mean, there was nothing about this game. I, like- Yeah...
9:17
if the game was close, though, it sure felt like they were gonna be- Yeah... a story the whole night. Because it extended two Philly drives.
9:23
But they didn't do anything with the second one, so it muted it a, a little bit. But Bolton was the personal foul late hit one, though? The one where he hit, uh, Saquon's back, yeah. Like, that one was late. It was...
9:32
Yeah, was it? Well, there should've been a foul, a flag on that. I don't know that we often see that called- Yeah... because it's a running back in that situation. But I thought it was pretty clearly late. All right.
9:42
Anyway, it didn't matter. They had to punt. Yeah, it didn't, did not matter. [laughs] Okay, so it's 17 to nothing. Now, if you still had hope as a Chiefs fan, right? Like, let's- I was waiting, yeah...
9:50
let's say the Cooper DeJean pick didn't, didn't toggle you to, "Oh my God, this game is over," then you could tell yourself, "Okay, there's a double dip opportunity here." Right, yeah. There's a double dip opportunity.
10:03
And who does it better, Joe? And who does it better than Patrick Mahomes? Except the other, the next thought after the comma ought to have been, "Yeah, but they can't even, like, gain any y- they can't get a first down."
10:13
They can't do anything. They can't do anything with it. And sure enough, the first play, Mahomes picked by Zach Baun. Set up at the KC 14. Second play, Hurts to Brown from 12 out. 24 to nothing, [laughs]
10:23
uh, the Philadelphia Eagles, with 1:35 left in the second quarter. 177 to 14 is the tally in total yards right now. 13 first downs to one.
10:34
And then by the way, the, uh, the last thing that happened in the first half, KC had to punt after a terrible D-Hop drop. Oh my gosh. He should still be running.
10:43
DeAndre Hopkins just straight up drops, and you're like, "This is a Jackie Smith kind of moment." But, but how did, how did he age 40 years i- in one route? Uh, yeah. In one route. Like, like, what happened?
10:53
In one route. Uh, so that's the score at the half. 24 to nothing. 179 to 23 in total yards. 13 to one in first downs. 1959 to 1001. The game, for all intents and purposes, was over.
11:05
We'll, I mean, we'll touch on the second half afterwards, but the second half was more about bettors and props and how you'd win something one play and lose something the next play. Yeah, yeah. Um.
11:15
I got some fun ones to talk about that too. I have some fun ones too coming up here, because I- By the way, Z- I, I said this before the show, Zach Baun, greatest linebacker ever I'd never heard of a year before.
11:23
[laughs] What a season. What a season. What a season. Again, Eagles fans, you deserve it, man. Congratulations. 16 out of 17 with a... Never using replay rules from the future this time. This team built to last.
11:35
And of course, we'll get into how do you, how does this make you feel about the year gone by? How does it make you feel about future odds? That's on the other side.
11:43
It's the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:59
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12:01
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12:11
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12:17
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12:25
Don't place your bets unprepared. Get full access today for only 9.99. That's $9.99 at vsin.com/subscribe. Skill Alexander I always do the, uh, Monday morning after the, uh, the Super Bowl.
12:38
It's a little numbers game tradition before I bounce. Uh, we get tweets of beating the book.
12:42
Tim Lawson at The Better Life, "I have to admit, when you brought up three unanswered scores again, as you do every year, as the, uh, the prop that, uh, flummoxes bettors the most, I thought, does this really still flummox bettors?"
12:55
He used, he even used flummox. [laughs] He goes, "Then I was at the counter at MGM National Harbor betting the yes, and the guy next to me couldn't believe it. He thought I misspoke.
13:04
And sure enough, easy-peasy for the, for the three in a row." Yeah. Yeah. Uh, Ryan Hyatt, "Looking forward to, uh, hearing Matt Grissom on with Gilly Kelly today." Me too.
13:12
"Welcome back college baseball, weather permitting where you call home." Los Vegas, LosVegas514, "Yo, so sad to see the NFL season end, knowing that our team was one game away from the Super Bowl.
13:24
Uh, want September to get here sooner than later. No more Kansas City? Washington versus Buffalo part two? Let's go." I'm already ready to talk, uh, football for next year.
13:33
Joby, TheRealJoby, "As you likely know, this Friday is Valentine's Day.
13:36
Any chance you can get the band back together for a throwback segment, preferably with no context, of The Love Zone as a nod to all the primetime action OGs? Tagging Matt Brown and Danielle Alvaro on that one." Man.
13:48
They should just surprise Joe Serollo with that. Surprised him with- [laughs] Surprise him with The Love Zone? Yeah, surprised him with, uh, Country Club, uh- Oh... the last time he filled in. That was fun.
13:57
He was looking at me like, "What's going on right now?" [laughs] What's happening? Yeah, Love Zone might be jarring. Yeah. James Sott, "I had Dotson 85 to one first touchdown at Caesars." Oh, brutal, man. Oof.
14:07
Oh, I'm sorry James Sott. String Fellow Hawk, "Had Eagles longest touchdown minus one: 10 and both teams to score 20 plus. Last Kansas City touchdown was a damn it/oh yeah moment."
14:17
There was so much of that, String Fellow. Um, I, the, the last, so yesterday morning, I just went prop crazy adding a bunch of stuff, and then in game I added a bunch of Eagles in-game numbers.
14:30
So I literally r- like t- on two different occasions was pumped on one play, and then like the very next play I'm, I was j- you know, it was torpedoed.
14:39
So, you know, D-Hop, I, I took the, uh, the, the plus, you know, over one and a half receptions. When he scores the touchdown, it's his second catch. I'm like, "Yes."
14:48
And then Mahomes goes and scores immediately, so that knocked out an Eagles in game.
14:54
Then it was the, you know, f- more than two and a half players to throw, to an attempt to pass, and we'll get to this, but like what the Eagles were doing attempting a pass for Kenny Pickett, I have no idea.
15:05
That cashes at big plus money, and then Mahomes immediately scores again, which knocks out another Eagles in game. So there was a bunch of that happening for me. It was just a- Oh, me too. Yeah...
15:13
as soon as you got happy, you were, you were just oust- It started at the beginning 'cause I played that, uh, like I, you know, we added, I added these over the weekend, so we brought it up yesterday on the show when we were in, but like I had A.J.
15:22
Brown first to 50 plus receiving yards. So like literally that first flag, right? Where you're like, "Oh, I'm in a good spot here. Oh, wait, no, no."
15:30
Either, I mean, the saddest, the saddest prop that I had to sweat, Gil, that got home, was my bet- bi- biggest prop, uh, will there be a two-point conversion attempt?
15:40
'Cause you're, so I'm sitting there in the third quarter, right? And you're like, "Well, this is a lock... as long as the Chiefs can score a touchdown." Mm. Words I never thought I would say.
15:51
That, you know, Todd Wischta was saying yesterday, first of all, f- when it got to a 34, we'll get to, well let, let's go through this because he, he did mention, he goes, "Is this the first time in our lives we've ever seen Mahomes on the wrong side of garbage time?"
16:04
And I think he's right. Yeah. It was. Yeah. Uh, by the way, uh, so halftime, so it's kinda over at this point already. Yeah. Did you kinda tune out? Uh, I had most of the rest of the halftime show and game on mute.
16:16
Um, the commercials, I don't remember a single one from the first half being any good. Did you like the halftime show? No. [laughs] The halftime show, by the way, it is a c- it is, feels like a cultural divide.
16:29
Some people hated it, and half the people loved it. Well, I feel like, okay, it w- it wasn't bad.
16:33
Here's the problem with the halftime shows now is every halftime show, this is an unfair expectation, but I blame the NFL and past halftime shows for this. Yeah.
16:41
I always feel like there's gonna be some massive surprise guest or something like that. And there was nobody. And there was really no one. Except for Serena Williams. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
16:48
I mean, and, and, and- Doing her little dance that she always does... I'd be like, I don't s- I mean, Sam Jackson was cool. I guess that was cool. Uh, 24 to nothing, third quarter, KC punts.
16:58
Elliott 29-yard field goal, 27 to nothing. Uh, KC at this point, again, this is the bi- we'll get to, the biggest stat of the game is this.
17:06
At this point, they were pressured on 52% of their dropbacks without Philly blitzing once. Can we show that s- do we have that Next Gen Stats? This is the overriding stat of the game.
17:15
Like, if there's one thing you will remember from or ought to remember from Super Bowl LIX, it is this from Next Gen Stats.
17:21
The Eagles did not blitz once across 42 dropbacks in Super Bowl LIX, just the fourth defense to not blitz in a game in the Next Gen Stats era. Not, not fourth Super Bowl, Ketley. We're talking about fourth game. Mm-hmm.
17:37
Not a practice. We're talking about the games. [laughs] Relying on their front four, the Eagles generated 16 pressures and sacked Mahomes six times, his most in a game in his career.
17:47
Uh, KC gets to, uh, fourth and five at their own 46, incomplete intended for D-Hop. Philly first play hurts to Devonte for 46. It's 34 to nothing late in the third quarter. 292 to 54 in total yards at this point.
18:02
Is that good? Pretty good. And then this is garbage time, and KC, like, came back and made it cosmetic, right? To Worthy for 50, first time past midfield towards the end of the third quarter.
18:13
Four plays later, to Worthy for 24, touchdown, 34 to 6. Two-point try fails. I mean, at that point I thought maybe we're getting the first shutout in Super Bowl history.
18:21
Not to be, 34 to 6, uh, 34 seconds left in the third quarter. We all learned together at this point, by the way, that you cannot onside kick the ball before the fourth quarter. Did you know this rule? No, not at all.
18:33
Nobody knew this rule. Not, not at all. Not at all. I was like, "What do you mean you can't onside the g- It, it's so great to keep finding out new rules in the playoff season.
18:39
I, I consider myself a fairly avid football watcher. You may have noticed this about me. I did not know that 34 to six, they have to kick it away.
18:47
Ends up 37 to six because Jake Elliott was on a crusade to bisect goalposts all night. Every one of his ki- well, not every one, there was one that was close, but ev- but every, mostly r- right down the middle.
18:58
He was amazing. Oh, yeah, yeah. But like it's, it's, it's also- But no pressure. Yeah. It's way easier when you're up- Yeah... when you have a massive lead and, uh, yeah.
19:05
Well, he also d- doesn't get to kick indoors that often, right? That too. 30, 37 to six now, 9:51 left. KC first play, Williams hits Mahomes on the throw, fumbles, uh, recovers it, hands to face uncalled by the way.
19:18
Elliott 50-yard field goal, 40 to six, 8:01 left. [laughs] Oh my God. Largest deficit, as we said, in Mahomes' career. Then Kansas City 75-yard drive, Mahomes to D Hop from seven out.
19:28
His over catches and, uh, his over catches prop, over one and a half catches, uh, caches. Then they get a two-point conversion to Watson, 40 to 14.
19:37
Then the part that I was talking about, Philadelphia inexplicably fourth, uh, four and out when they decide to allow Kenny Pickett to throw a pass on fourth down for no particular reason. [laughs] That was weird. It...
19:49
And we were, I was on, Will Hill was nice enough to have me on the Should've Bet More podcast last night. We were just sort of... He was speculating, I think he might be right.
19:56
Was this, uh, Nick Sirianni's way of just, or Kellen Moore's way of just saying, "You know what? I don't know how much longer you're gonna be a quarterback [laughs] in this league.
20:04
Let's get you in a Super Bowl box score." Like, what other explanation was there for that other than, "Oh, we always go for it on fourth down, we might as well go"?
20:11
I mean, I wanna say it's not that, but I don't have anything better for you. So immediately then, of course more garbage, uh, 'cause that was incomplete.
20:19
KC one play, Mahomes to Worthy for 50, two-point conversion to D Hop, 40 to 22, and that's how it would end. And Jalen Hurts is your MVP, 17 for 22 for 221, two touchdowns, one pick.
20:30
He was sacked twice, 11 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown. Uh, Patrick Mahomes, quote, "I let y'all down today. We will be back." That, that- Will they? Here's what...
20:42
Let's start with all this, and we'll bleed this into next, in the next segment.
20:47
This is the, the main thing, the f- the comment that saved me the last two weeks was that we, we had an even divide, just like the betting market, right, on this show.
20:56
We had just as many people backing the Chiefs as we did the Eagles, and I was one of the people backing the Chiefs. And you'll remember what I said was, "I'm taking the Chiefs because I think they win a close game.
21:09
But if you come to me from the future and you say one of these teams blew out the other, it's the Eagles who authored it." And I asked that of every single guest we had who had the Chiefs in this game.
21:22
And I said, "If I come to you from the future," and I said, "One team blew the, blew the other out, isn't it the Eagles that did the blowing out?" They all agreed. And that's what made this such a strange handicap. Yeah.
21:35
'Cause even those of us who had the Chiefs sort of admitted there is a scenario where this goes terribly, uh, uh, sideways. I, I think for, for me it was always the big things of you had the pros for the Chiefs, right?
21:46
Quarterback, coach. And then the Eagles it was what's gonna happen in the trenches, right?
21:51
You're sup- you're supposed to d- you know, I don't wanna say dominate, but you're supposed to be better in the trenches on both sides, offensive and defensively. And that was very clear.
22:00
The second one was very clear right off the bat, and then I, man, I thought the, just the Chiefs game plan was odd. The approach was odd. The fact that they didn't try to run at all or establish the run at all- I know...
22:11
I thought was a little odd. Yeah. And maybe they wouldn't have had any, any luck with or- Yeah... any, any success with that either, but what they did do didn't work.
22:18
The, the, the Chiefs did accomplish one thing, was like, "We're not gonna let Saquon beat us," and they sure [laughs] That's right. [laughs] They sure accomplished that.
22:26
Um, I just think, you know, what's the Tyson comment? Everybody's got a plan until you get punched in the face, right? Yeah.
22:33
That was kind of it, where it's like if you can't even stop them from pressuring you and they're not even blitzing, what, what do we have at all here? You can't really scheme out of that too easily. We'll come back.
22:45
What did it mean for how we thought of this whole season? And next, next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ever had your deposit blocked by your bank right before a big bet?
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23:51
We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciated. Uh, Tim Lawson, uh, the better life checking in. The, uh, the historian, mega pod historian, Tim Lawson, so we always, uh, read his tweets no matter how many.
24:01
"The halftime show was a good Kendrick Lamar set, but not a good halftime show in my opinion." Ray393939, "I had Dotson 80 to 1 first touchdown and Dejean at 250 to 1 for- Oh, man... MVP. I was emotional last night."
24:18
Logic3227, "Not exactly how I planned on cashing over two and a half players to attempt a pass, but I'll take it. I can't complain about any bad beats this week." I'm with you on that one, Logic, for sure.
24:28
Anthony Ventresca, "Well, the NFL season is over. Bring on the tennis." Uh, by the way, subscribers got four tennis plays last night. We split the first two. I'm not sure what's happening with the next two. Iga one?
24:39
Saw her, saw her plan earlier. Iga one. Yeah, I have, uh, by the way, Iga future. Stations, by the way, best numbers to, best tennis numbers in town. Mm. Uh, plus four- They had good, great golf stuff too, yeah...
24:48
plus 430 to win the, uh, to win at Doha. She's going for her, are you ready for this? Fourth consecutive Doha title But, you know, the naysayers out there are like, "She can't play on hard courts." Oh, that's funny.
24:59
The record says something different. Jonathan Doe. Oh, Jonathan Doe is right. He says, "First time being on the wrong side of garbage time for Mahomes. KC was blown out in a recent Super Bowl versus Tampa Bay."
25:09
You are correct. We stand corrected. That is the one, 31 to nine. KC held to three field goals in that game. Kevin Ryan, "Gil, not the best Super Bowl day for me.
25:17
Not only did I have the Chiefs, but in the morning I had a bradycardia episode and am in the cardiac ward in a Phoenix hospital." Wow.
25:25
Bradycardia, a condition in which the heart rate is abnormally slow, typically below 60 beats per minute at rest. Oh. Hope you're okay, man. Yeah, man. Kevin, get well- By the way-... scary...
25:35
I, I got a little bradycardia, if you know what I mean, from that broadcast yesterday. Not to make light of it. Did, did that... Was that the moment where you were like, "Tom Brady's not that great at this"?
25:45
I don't know. I, I, I... It's, it's weird because yes, I thought that. I thought that already. I wasn't surprised by the, the performance. It continues to surprise me though how we, we...
25:55
Everybody nationally breaks down his announcing performances like, and like [laughs] nobody else has been scrutinized more than this effort and the decision.
26:02
Well, 'cause, well, the, first of all, 'cause he makes $300 million, right? But the thing about this is, is as long as he's sticking to, you know, game analysis, he's the, the foremost authority on planet Earth. Yeah.
26:14
But the best analysis he does is usually on podcasts midweek. Right, right. When he, when he goes into- Yeah... a whole thing about pre-snap versus post-snap, he's awesome at that. But during the broadcast,
26:25
the forced humor sometimes- Oh, it's rough. That stuff is rough... like, uh, I'm just trying to think of one, the Kevin Hart moment- Just the ban-... where he's like, "How did the cameras find Kevin Hart? Ha ha.
26:35
Uh, you're my, you're still my man, Kevin." I'm like, "Oh, God." Just the natural banter that's supposed to go back and forth- Oh... yes, he's terrible with.
26:42
You, you- But by the way, why did they show 900 celebrities last night? Like, did that, didn't that feel more than usual? Well, I know when I think about the Philadelphia Eagles, Kelly, I think Anne Hathaway's team.
26:51
[laughs] That's what I think. That one. [laughs] Adam MMA, "I thought Kendrick had a solid performance last night, but the problem was I didn't know most of the songs.
26:58
I can't imagine I was the only person that was having that issue. I have to think that's why there's such a divide." Well, that's not the only reason.
27:05
NCI 95 Gambler, "I cashed my over 47 and a half yards longest field goal prop thanks to Elliott, not the way I was thinking it was gonna happen, but that's betting for you.
27:12
Thanks for a great season and enjoy your vacation." Thank you, sir. And Nemesis Enforcer, "Definitely worth a segment to explain the halftime show to Kelly. Next level imagery.
27:21
He might not agree with the statement, but Kdot is that dude." That's what I, that's what I'm referring to as a cultural event. Gotcha. Yeah.
27:27
I literally listened to it for the first, uh, song stuff and then- Yeah, yeah... walked away. I hear you. Um, okay. Did the result of this one game
27:38
cause you to think to yourself, self, "Maybe I had this entire season wrong"? In other words, why the Eagle... w- while the Chiefs were busy winning 17 straight one-score games, 12 of which were this season,
27:53
we always knew that they weren't the greatest outfit, right? Aaron Schatz had them as the worst pick your record at whatever time, you know, 14 and two team or 13 and two, whatever they were- Mm...
28:02
at any given moment in his, uh, DVO, uh, rankings or, or among the worst. Um, did any of this...
28:09
'Cause you and I had, in whatever order, the Ravens, the Chiefs, and the Bills at the top, followed by the seven postseason NFC teams.
28:19
Does this game make you say to yourself, and Brian Schaefer, shout out for, for pointing this out, maybe we had it wrong. Maybe, maybe the Eagles, Lions, and Washington, and the Rams, maybe they were actually
28:35
at the top or nearer to the top as a group, and that honestly, the takeaway from this game is that Washington fans should be really happy, Rams fans ought to be really happy, 'cause they were the one that almost beat them in the postseason, the Eagles that is.
28:51
That Detroit, you know, eh, they're probably still not happy 'cause Detroit got blown out by Washington. But you know what I'm saying.
28:57
And that the Bills conversely, Bills fans and Ravens fans ought to be killing themselves that they can't get over the Mahomes hump. Maybe that latter point is the bigger one. Well, yeah. That, that part, yeah.
29:11
I, I don't know about the... Like we ta- something we talked about ear- earlier, yes, this was so impressive from Philadelphia. I was, I was not high enough on them at the end of the season.
29:20
That was very, that became very obvious last night. Me too. Um- Me too. I don't know that it's... I- if we go and re-rank these teams though, Baltimore, Buffalo, uh, Kansas City are still right there.
29:34
Which is the team... I'm not saying they're not right there, but I'm saying maybe incrementally we, we judged it a little wrong at the top.
29:39
Which of the, of the teams in the NFL that did not win the Super Bowl, so I'm talking about all 31 others besides the Eagles, but obviously I'm talking about the teams towards the top, which is the team now that the season is over will look back and be the most regretful?
29:54
And I'll give you choices. 'Cause Washington's not on here, 'cause Washington's like, "Oh my God, are you kidding me? We... How did we get to 60 minutes- Yeah... you know, away from the Super Bowl?"
30:02
Your choices are Buffalo, which again, even in the AFC Championship, right? They fumbled four times but recovered all of them. Mm-hmm. It could've been a lot worse, okay? Buffalo for...
30:15
And it's the Josh Allen, Tommy Hearns analogy that I made, where it's like Tommy Hearns' only crime is being born at the same time as Ray Leonard and Marvin Hagler, and Josh Allen's might be being born at the same time, roughly, as Patrick Mahomes.
30:26
Buffalo is choice one as the most regretful. Baltimore for the body of work, choice number two, or Detroit, number three. Or no, number four is the Rams, 'cause they had the ball with a chance to beat the Eagles. Okay.
30:39
I'm gonna, I'm gonna throw out the Eagles. Uh, uh, sorry, I'm gonna throw out the Lions because, uh, injuries, right? Injuries is a- Injuries... long time, and it's- Agree...
30:47
you can call it an excuse, but it's a, it's- Agree. Uh, sorry, it's a legit excuse when you get to this point in the NFL season. Injuries derailed. It is... I'm glad you brought it for four teams, you did.
30:58
It is definitely Buffalo and/or Baltimore, okay? Definitely those two. I think you're right.
31:03
And to go back to what you were talking about before No, I, one thing I cannot get on board with is the LA Rams being anywhere close to the same quality of football team as a Baltimore Ravens or, or even a Buffalo Bills at the end of the season.
31:17
All right. I can't get on board with that. I, I agree with you. Now you have to choose between Baltimore and Buffalo.
31:23
I mean, I guess we have to say Buffalo because they got there, but I, but I agree- I still think it's Baltimore... I know where you're- I really do. [laughs] I know where you're going with it- Yeah...
31:30
because Baltimore, like, gun to my head, do I think the Bal- Baltimore Ravens are a better football team? Yeah, I do. I do.
31:36
I just think B- I think Buffalo, again, 'cause I always say, "Oh, their best player is still Josh Allen tucking it under and running." Like, I think Buffalo i- is a, you know, is a team that has many ways to improve.
31:46
Like, I don't think they're a complete football team. And Kansas City, by the way, say what you will, their defense was always underrated, but they, it is a patchwork offense. Yes, yes.
31:55
Be- besides Mahomes, they've just been able to magically get past that. Baltimore doesn't have that excuse. They don't. It's just like, how does this never work? I just, I still think it's them the most regretful.
32:07
As we look to the, uh, to the odds for next year, Philly is the short shot at six to one. Um, Kansas City right behind the Eagles, uh, to win Super Bowl 60. Oh my God. Baltimore and Buffalo, by the way, pardon me.
32:20
Eagles are six to one. Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, all of them seven to one. This is at DraftKings.
32:26
Lions 10 to one, Niners 16 to one, Commanders 18 to one, along with the Packers at that number, and then it's the Bengals at 20 to one. Everybody else longer, including some playoff teams from this year.
32:40
If you had to make one bet, I'm forcing you, you must make a bet before the end of this show. [laughs] What's the bet? Okay. I never do, I wouldn't, Gil, but this is actually easy to me. Lions 10 to one. Lions 10 to one.
32:56
Okay. Uh, you know where I'm going, and it's not Homeration. It's not Homerism. I, I'd go with the Commanders at 18 to one, and I know a lot of people would be like, "Wait a minute.
33:05
You, you can't expect Jayden Daniels to be as good, just like C.J. Stroud wasn't as good." Uh, yeah, I kinda can.
33:11
And in Adam Peters, they have one of the, along with Howie Roseman, but I'd say in an almost a different kinda way, one of the great talent evaluators, if not the best in the NFL. That's where I would go.
33:25
Also acceptable answers, the Bengals at 20 to one. [laughs] Will Hill, same question. He had the Niners 16 to one. Yeah. Yeah. He b- he believes the Niners could, uh, have a resurgence. It's an interesting question.
33:37
We'll come back. Carl Sack, little NBA break next here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:04
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34:09
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34:23
It's Gil Alexander. We get tweets, so many tweets, love y'all, here at Beating The Book. This is from, uh, in-house attorney of a Numbers Game, Mark Geiger. Uh, Mark Geiger, as my computer decides to go crazy.
34:35
Two items he says. "One, you think that Kansas City will use all seven draft picks [laughs] on their offensive line? Two, loved that fourth down picket pass.
34:43
A good buddy had the over two and a half player throwing prop, so he paid for the pizza. Not a Philly Special redux, but good enough. Have a great vacay." I had it too.
34:51
I, and, and it was at that moment where you're like, "Okay, uh, they're not gonna pass. You know, Pickett's just in there to run, you know, to, to just hand the ball off."
35:00
And then when they were gonna punt, right, 'cause you just assumed, "Oh, they're gonna punt," w- if they put Carson Wentz in, the Chiefs that is, well, why would they put Carson Wentz in to throw?
35:09
Like, you were going through all these- Yeah, yeah... machinations, and instead Sirianni's like, "Hey, let's throw the ball." O- okay, we, we, we didn't get a chance to s- to seize on that moment a little bit more.
35:17
I'm j- I know the game was over, okay? I know the game's over. Yeah. But how much did the win probability shift? And I know it's from, like,.1%- Yeah... to, like, 4%, but still- It was stupid... in two plays, right?
35:31
Yeah, there was no point to it. 'Cause you go for it and then Mahomes makes you punish right away with a touchdown. Torch D, "Best bet I hit yesterday, Eli Manning making that stupid kick."
35:40
Eli Manning a- apparently before the game. Did you see any of that? I missed all of it. Dude, I, I was actually [laughs] waiting to hear from the back. It was before the game.
35:46
I think I was kinda waiting for it throughout the game. I didn't know, I didn't realize it happened. He said, "Just realized Eli hit more field goals than Butker.
35:52
[laughs] No Dotson first touchdown, no Butker over one and a half field goals. Shaking my head. Ready for guessing NBA lines." Pittsburgh Billy, "Gil, don't forget to mention the picket pass." I did, many times.
36:03
"Got my over two and a half players to throw a pass prop to the window. Sirianni's the only coach in the league that would do that.
36:08
I was expecting a punt and Carson Wentz to make a charity appearance, but that wasn't happening." There, you're right on my thinking.
36:13
Norm in Vegas, "Don't forget that Jake Elliott had to kick three of his four field goals twice." Yes. "Due to false start penalties.
36:20
He made all seven kicks, and I said this on Christmas Day, Beyonce's halftime show on the Netflix game will be better than the Super Bowl halftime show. It was." Norm, you did. I remember you did, and you were correct.
36:32
Cspackler, it was Beyonce though. It was kind of tough to beat. Yeah. Uh- I mean, it's like that was a fun show, but, like, I don't like, I don't like her country stuff or whatever she was doing.
36:40
I have a very str- tr- strange relationship with Beyonce. I love her. But it was a good show, you know? I love, like, five or six of her songs, and then it just sort of drops off a cliff for me.
36:48
Cspackler, "Thanks for the game recap. I wish I could have enjoyed it, but what a dud Super Bowl. I pushed on my crate full of bets, but it didn't help the game."
36:55
Trip Tepper, "It was great seeing Jason in studio on Sunday for the special edition of a Numbers Game. He's VSiN's Dude from The Big Lebowski. He uncovers the most rando future bets in such a nonchalant manner.
37:06
Just one of the incredible cast of characters in the ANG ecosystem." Thank you, Trip. Appreciate that. And by the way If you like Jason on Sunday, Jason's in studio later today. Here- Dude returns... in about 45 minutes.
37:18
Yeah? Yeah. Dude return. Hoops by Hoots, "My worst bad beat of the night was the number of Eagles players to have a rushing attempt under three and a half was at three until Pickett kneeled three times." Hmm. Ooh.
37:29
Judd O'Connor, "Tom Brady wasn't that great on TV, especially in the fourth quarter, but the game was crap," he used a different word, "so talking about himself losing to the Giants was warranted."
37:39
Yeah, but even that, Judd. Like his losses in the Super Bowls were so gut-wrenchingly close. Like there was no comparison to what this was, so that was a little weird I thought too.
37:49
Yeah, I, I did get a couple t- uh, a couple tweets, and Isaiah told me this though, of me complaining about... Or not complaining, I was just curious of how, all the celebrity shots. Yeah.
37:57
Yeah, I guess just you're filling content when it's a blow out of, blow out game. I get it. Yeah. That, yeah, you're right. [laughs] That's the answer. That is the answer. Steve Stang, Stangy?
38:05
I hope I'm pronouncing that right. "Very short notes. Reid is adult." He's not on the Andy Reid bandwagon. Moneyline Marv, "It's still hard not to see the Chiefs right back at the AFC title game next year.
38:15
The Chiefs equal bronze Cavs teams, the rest of the AFC, the Toronto Raptors."
38:20
Oh, that's interesting that that was his takeaway that he, he now thinks of the Chiefs [laughs] as LeBron's Cavs team, meaning how bad the Eastern Conference was in the NBA- Hmm...
38:29
then LeBron could just free pass to the, uh, to the NBA finals. Yeah, I'm not sure if I agree with that.
38:35
3JackH3131, "The broadcast had to show all the celebrities because the Chiefs were busy getting their rear ended, uh, rear end handed to them.
38:42
I was on the Eagles, felt like KC was there on a combination of luck and smoke and mirrors." Bruce Dobigan.
38:47
Bruce Dobigan, "Because the Super Bowl was so boring, uh, defensive touchdown," yes, "gave me time to notice that Denis Shapovalov beat Fritz Paul and then Ruud to win Dallas hard court.
38:56
Interested to see how he goes in slam season now he's seemingly found his game. Enjoy Cabo." I'm not [laughs] I'm not going to Cabo, but thank you, I will try to enjoy Cabo nonetheless.
39:04
Uh, yes, Denis Shapovalov, peak of his career. What a tournament he just had in Dallas. Hopefully, uh, this is a portent of things to come for him.
39:11
Um, Natro- Na- Natrone Betts, "To me, AFC has the best quarterbacks and the NFC has the best rosters." Oh, that's interesting.
39:18
And then Mark Decard, last one for this segment, "Anxiously awaiting Kelly's in-depth analysis of the yellow Gatorade results."
39:25
I, I got a lot of questions about this, uh, today, and, uh, Carl we're gonna try to catch up with later 'cause we're having some issues back there. Okay. Um, the, uh...
39:34
I, I, I got a lot of questions and almost like, like props. Like, [laughs] "Hey, good call on..." I didn't bet it. I didn't bet it, but thank you for, for, for pro- the props on it.
39:42
Was just pointing out the line movement. Was really no surprise to me, Gil, to see yellow be dumped on the Eagles. Still the question, well, what's in the Chief's cooler?
39:51
That's what I needed to see because when we were, when we were sitting here on Friday seeing that number get steamed like crazy, to me it was, oh, someone thinks they know or they know what's in the Chief's cooler.
40:02
'Cause the... I, I, I think the yellow green you could al- you could always assume at least a little bit that most likely that was going to be the Eagles color. This is from, uh, Rhodes.
40:12
Rhodes Knows, "Do AFC teams play different when they play Mahomes? It seemed like the Eagles had a style and they were gonna just play that way.
40:19
I just think back to the Bills not running Allen and how much Hurts was able to do last night seems like an error." That's such a great point about that AFC championship game with the Bills and the Chiefs.
40:30
Where- I, I mean-... where it's just, you're right, the Bills didn't go to their bread and butter. And, and I, I will harken back.
40:38
It did feel like when I, when I made the comparison to the '80s Super Bowls and the early '90s ones. You know, Jim Kelly famously, the Bills the only team to, to go to four straight Super Bowls. They lost them all.
40:49
They lost to the Giants on a last second field goal miss by Scott Norwood, or in the last seconds. Uh, and then they got blown out by Washington and Dallas twice.
40:57
And Jim Kelly famously said after the fact, he said, you know, in retrospect, when he had years to sort of absorb it, in retrospect, "The Giants was the only one we could've won." Right? Mm.
41:08
The Patriots had no shot against the B- against the Bears.
41:12
Um, Denver's teams back in the Elway days, in the early Elway days, not the late '90s ones that won a Super Bowl or two, but the ones that were getting crushed by NFC teams, they were always so much smaller than those NFC offensive lines, whether it was the Giants or Washington.
41:27
And this is what that felt like yesterday to me. It was just such a dominant, like the defensive line, if you could've given a group MVP, right?
41:35
If you couldn't give it to Fangio and you couldn't give it to an individual player, just here, defensive line. You know, like a Harvey Martin, Randy White shared thing, which just doesn't happen anymore.
41:45
But, um, to your point, Rhodes, I do feel like that game for the first time sort of let me know, I was like, yeah, maybe the, maybe the finesse ain't gonna work against the team as solidly built and as built to last as Philadelphia.
42:00
And to y- and to your point, Buffalo absolutely has a lot of regrets. Yeah, th- there's no question they had a strange game plan against the Chiefs.
42:06
It, it, that one was weird to me though, Gil, because e- e- like even I said I was sh- I would still be running Josh Allen way more than they did, but I think it was the Tyson line y- y- you dropped. It was- Yeah...
42:17
every short yardage. Remember, those early short yardage attempts where they would go Josh Allen, they got stuffed.
42:22
And I think it was immediately in the heads of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills of like, "Okay, if that's not gonna work, we're in trouble."
42:30
'Cause remember that fourth down he went over the top at midfield with the ball, right? You don't do that at midfield. You do that at the goal line, fine.
42:37
You don't do it at midfield 'cause what happens if you fumble, the other team's set up in great p- uh, field position, and he did fumble. JoeC714, "Don't understand any of the hate of Kendrick's halftime show.
42:47
Thought it was great if you noticed all the little eggs he dropped." I noticed, but I'm just telling you the country is divided. White... It's a metaphor of other things.
42:55
And White Brad, he said, uh, "I can't believe he didn't play King Kunta. The Super Bowl halftime show," uh, he said, "was basically a greatest hits list." Uh, by the way, MVP for next year in the NFL.
43:07
Look, Lamar Jackson's five to one and Josh Allen is plus 550. [laughs] Wanna do that all over again? As they should be. Mahomes and Burrow plus 750. Jayden is 10 to one. Herbert 20 to one. Jordan Love 22 to one. C.J.
43:19
Stroud, Baker, and Kyler all 25 to one. Yeah, it sounds all about right. I was gonna say, these odds, I know it's a boring take, these odds feel really right to me. Yeah, me too. Like those are the top five guys, right?
43:31
And I'm including your guy, your guy Jayden. Eh, there's a drop off after that. Yeah. There should be. I agree. I agree. Especially for how much crap I've talked about Justin Herbert this year.
43:39
Those are, and we talked about this earlier, like those are, whatever order you have those f- top four guys on- Mm-hmm...
43:44
four guys, Lamar, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, they are, to me, the four best quarterbacks in the NFL, and I think Jayden has the case for five.
43:54
I think, I think the only thing controversial, say, is I think you could make a case for Mahomes dr- uh, saying he should be further down that list. Interestingly not listed, Jalen Hurts, Super Bowl MVP.
44:03
[upbeat music] What happened to your mic there? What's going on? [laughs] Or did Kelly forget him? Oh. [laughs] Or did Kelly forget him? [laughs] And like when you speak it, there was, "Or did Kelly forget him?" Right.
44:16
That does look odd, uh, Gil. Yeah. Well, no Eagles listed. Hurts 25 to one. I did not forget. Oh, no, he's just- He's just, yeah... just ran out of room... not on the graphic. Ran out of room.
44:25
Uh, college baseball preview. Let's do that next with Matt Grissom coming up Numbers Game, presented by Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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