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Feb 10, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 10, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | February 10, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
Uh, it's my little buddy Kelly Bilin over here, everybody. Kelly Bilin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Uh, Joe Serrallo will be in this chair for the rest of the week. Right.
0:27
Looking forward to that- Mm-hmm... uh, for everybody. Um, still to come this hour, Jason Weingarten in studio. Find out how his Super Bowl went. Uh, Matt Grissom on, uh, college hoops.
0:37
Carl Sack, uh, we had a little technical issue a little earlier, gonna talk some NBA with us here momentarily. Just a couple more tweets here. Uh, this from A. Brown at Down in Jungleland.
0:48
He said, "Most exciting moment of the game for me, Eagles false start on a 24-yard field goal attempt and let the shortest field goal over 26 and a half yard prop cash." Wow. That's great. Yeah. That's great.
1:00
"A few eye- a few eyeballs shot my way after I shot up off the couch yelling, 'He jumped'"- [laughs] "... in the midst of a 27 to nothing done of a game."
1:07
That is one of those games where there was such a divide between football fans who are not bettors and actual bettors, because only bettors cared about what was happening the rest of that game. Uh, yeah- Yeah...
1:18
I mean, the total coming into play late, like that- All everything, all the props... I mean, from a betting standpoint, that was huge, yeah. It was still all live.
1:24
Um, and, uh, Joe adds also, from Southern Cali, said, "Okay, Hurts MVP was still up for me with four minutes left to play at minus 5,000.
1:35
Yes, a lot of juice, but I would've thought they, uh, take that off a lot earlier, was thinking if I should unload on it, but couldn't get myself to do it." Yeah, uh, some books had up live MVP lines. Mm-hmm.
1:47
And Josh Sweat, I mentioned him earlier, got as low as I think four to one at one point. But even then, I, and I noticed the Sweat thing earlier, I'm like, "I don't know, maybe Sweat's doing something here." Even then,
2:01
my next thought was, "Yeah, but, like, you, you can't. You can't." There's, there's no defense. By the way, Williams ended up with as good of stats as Sweat did also on the defense when all was said and done.
2:13
When it's a, as comprehensive a blowout as that, it is virtually impossible for any individual player to get that. Cooper DeJean- I-... pick six, Sweat with one and a half sacks, um- Two and a half, right?
2:26
I think it was two and a half. Did, did he end up with two and a half? Uh, Williams ended up with a forced fumble and, and one and a half sacks, I believe, as well.
2:32
Um, so I mean, you just, they were so, they were just so dominant everywhere. Two and a half. I don't, I, I guess I'm on... Am I on, on an island on this? You are on an island on this.
2:41
Well, I would've given it to Sweat or, or Cooper DeJean, 'cause this i- I mean, this is- You're on an island. There's, there's, 'cause there's no way, like- Yeah... okay, Kelly, imagine we gave it to Cooper DeJean. Yeah.
2:51
Really, he was the MVP for that one play? It, uh, it is representative of how dominant the defense was, especially- But-... early in the game.
3:00
Representative, though, is not- Like Jalen Hurts was padding stats when they were, they had to blitz, and he just, uh, was able to take off up the middle with no defense standing in his way.
3:07
It, you can't give it as a representative award. You just can't. You, you either... I mean, listen, the defense was the MVP.
3:13
Vic Fangio might've been the MVP, and all those guys were great, but Jalen Hurts was great, too. You have to g- this is, but this is a great lesson, right?
3:21
This is why we talk about MVP for two weeks, and we're like, "It is just so difficult for a non-quarterback to win this." I mean, and that's where I circle back to. Yeah. It, it is.
3:30
If, if you gu- if you guys were all telling me that this is, this is not the game, that it should've gone to m- any of a couple of m- uh, defensive players for the Eagles, then- But you needed-...
3:40
y- you can't look anywhere but quarterback every year. But you needed one guy above all. If you gave it to Sweat, Williams, right, Williams should've been like, "Why didn't you give it to me?
3:49
I, I had sacks, and I had a forced fumble, and I recovered a fumble." Yeah, I don't think- And DeJean's gonna be like, "I caught a ball, and I went in the end zone. It was a pick six."
3:57
I don't, I don't know if they could do this, but I would've gone co-MVPs with like- Well, they did back in the day, uh, Harvey Martin and Randy White. Yeah, have we, have we gotten rid of that?
4:04
Or I don- I don't think we've gotten rid of it. I- Yeah, they should've gone co-MVPs then and ruined everybody's bets, and we all would've been going crazy today. Jalen Hurts did play well. Did you notice that at all?
4:12
He was like- He, he was great. [laughs] Carl Sack joins us. Uh, when he makes an NBA play, it moves lines globally. Comes to us courtesy of Aggressive Guest Line at Killer Sports for Carl, uh, killersports.com.
4:26
Uh, Carl, how are you? Do you even pay attention to the Super Bowl because you're so immersed in the NBA? Uh, I did watch, I did watch the game last night. Yeah, how are you? I'm good.
4:38
Uh, did you have a rooting interest, or are you like, "Huh, football and handicapping football, that's, that's adorable"? No, I had a, I had a few props, uh, mild rooting interest, but, uh, nothing significant.
4:49
No, I was, uh, if anything, I was rooting for a close game, you know, so that it would be exciting, and I, uh, nearly fell asleep in the middle of the third quarter. [laughs] All right, let me, uh, let's transition.
4:59
Let's do an NBA break here with you. Let's, uh, let's as- I'm gonna ask you a series of questions about your Facahta League, uh, [laughs] specifically.
5:07
Anthony Davis gets traded, obviously, famously, in the Luka Doncic trade, and on cue, bang, he hurts himself. Um, abductor strain, so he's out multiple weeks.
5:18
Giannis, out through the All-Star break with a calf injury, and then maybe saddest of all, Joel Embiid, tell me if you've heard this before, might have to have another surgery on his knee if he isn't feeling better by the end of the season.
5:35
Um, I don't know where the question is in that other than how do you even keep up with this?
5:40
And of all these players, do, do they mean, do they tend to mean as much as the average fan believes they do, or is the way that you analyze basketball oftentimes the, the output is, yeah, it's not as big of a, of an impact as one might think?
6:00
Um, geez I, I think that in the marketplace, the stars tend to be overrated, um, in the betting market, I mean.
6:12
Uh, but obviously, a- and, and there's a difference between regular season and playoffs too. I think, um, you know, in the regular season, I think players tend, star players tend to be
6:27
overrated in, in the marketplace, whereas in the playoffs I think it's a lot more star dependent in terms of performance and ability to win and whatnot. And so I would say it might even be the opposite in the playoffs.
6:42
I like that answer. That makes sense to me. Um, as the rotations shrink in the playoffs- Mm-hmm... maybe they're even underrated, but during the regular season, if anything, uh, perhaps it's overrated in the market.
6:53
Uh, okay, Jimmy Butler on the Warriors. First game, an epic comeback against the Chicago Bulls. Steph with 34, Butler with 25. Tell me the Warriors are gonna be a thing in the playoffs. Oh, man. Uh,
7:11
I don't know. I, I think that- [laughs]... there's, there's reason for optimism. Um, but I think that there's, you know, with all the drama... I love Jimmy Butler. I love, you know, especially the bubble Jimmy Butler.
7:24
I love the way that he just, especially, you know, playoff Jimmy, all that. Like, I love how hard he plays and how passionate he is.
7:33
Um, but the drama that went on with Miami was, uh, a- and some of the drama that he's had in his career is off-putting and concerning. And so, um, you know, you just don't know.
7:46
Like, I saw this fake tweet, uh, y- a day or two ago that said that Golden State had suspended Butler for missing a practice. [laughs] And I was like, "Are you kidding me?" [laughs] And I believed it, you know?
7:58
That's the kinda thing that you just don't know what's gonna happen, you know? Is, is, is Dr- uh, are him and Draymond gonna get into a fight, you know? Like- Any day now, yeah.
8:07
Uh, Port- I could see it going either way... Portland Trail Blaz- that w- that was not the answer I was hoping for, but it's kind of the answer I was expecting.
8:13
Portland Trail Blazers, um, they were not good at basketball, I'm being kind, and now all of a sudden, what is it, 10 out of 12 they've won? Yeah. Thing or not a thing?
8:25
Um, I mean, I think that they're underrated in the marketplace.
8:29
They covered 11 straight and before that last loss that they had to Minnesota, I believe it was, and they really just shot terribly from the three-point line in that game. Um, and Robert Williams, their...
8:43
W- w- I think is one of their better players, he got hurt. Um, he's questionable, I believe, for tonight's game. But I think that they're under- still underrated in the marketplace. And, um, I mean, are they a thing?
8:55
Like, um, no, no, they're not gonna make the playoffs. Um, but they are not somebody that I... You know, they're playing Denver tonight and, um, I think that that spread seems a little high to me.
9:08
Is there a play on that? Um, I, I think I'm gonna probably play Portland. The, the line's nine-and-a-half right now. I would like to see the status of Williams. Uh, MPJ's questionable for Denver.
9:21
I think he's gonna be, he's definitely underrated in the marketplace. If he misses, um, he's very significant, I think, to Denver. And if he misses, I'd definitely be playing Portland.
9:32
Kelly, you playing that game at all? Yeah, I think this is probably a play for me tonight. Not much on the NBA card for me, but this was one that jumped out to me, Carl, at eight-and-a-half.
9:38
Uh, Jerami Grant with a questionable tag next to him too. I, I'll circle back. This Portland team was bad. I, Carl, I, th- I texted with a couple guys all year though.
9:47
The talent on this team, I mean, no, it's not gonna win you a championship.
9:52
Yes, it's an odd assortment of guys, but the talent level overall, like, they shouldn't have been as bad as they were earlier in the year, right? Yeah.
9:59
Yeah, I think it's just taken Chauncey some time to get the players all on the same page.
10:04
And I don't know that they're, you know, gonna be a, even a 500 team going forward necessarily, but, um, yeah, they're, they've been on quite a run lately. Did you land on something tonight, Carl?
10:17
You know, there's nothing I'm in love with at the, at the moment, to be honest. I think there's still some injury news that needs to shake out.
10:25
Um, I think, you know, I think New Orleans is probably worth a small play here if you can get 16. It looks like it just dropped to 15-and-a-half though.
10:34
Um, but Oklahoma City coming off that big game against Memphis, uh, that was a nice win. They've covered four out of five.
10:43
Um, and I don't have New Orleans as quite as low as the market does right now after the Murray injury. Um, I th- I think they still have some talent and they're, they're not as bad as their record shows.
10:55
Okay, killercappers.com for those who wanna get your picks, yes? Yeah, yeah. Okay.
10:59
Killercappers and, uh, and killersports.com is, is the database and, and where, uh, the handicapping tools are and where I spend a lot of time. Let me ask you this in, in closing.
11:08
Uh, our buddy Zach Cohen, who works here at VSAN, senior editor, made the outlandish claim the other day that he invented the question mark.
11:15
No, that he, uh, he is betting the Spurs at 100 to one to win the Western Conference. Do you see any wisdom in that? Do you see a kernel of genius in that? Yay or nay? You got 20 seconds. It's a long shot.
11:30
Man, I, I mean, I guess anything could happen, but, uh, jeez, uh, uh, that's, that's not a bet that I'm gonna make. Okay. [laughs] We'll leave it at that. I kinda like his moxie though. Thank you, Carl. Appreciate it.
11:45
Matt Grissom, college baseball on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSAN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:10
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12:15
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12:29
That's winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin. Gil Alexander, we get tweets debating the book. Jim Oliszwei, I ho- I don't know if I'm pronouncing that right, Jim, I'm sorry. Uh, he's @real...
12:41
[laughs] I don't even know what that is. He says, "Gilly, come on. The hate for the halftime show was not because we're divided." Well, I didn't say it was because we're divided, I said we are divided on it.
12:52
He said, "It's because it sucked. Couldn't understand a word. He may be great to the folks that like this genre, but this audience is definitely not it. Shame on the NFL for forcing it on us."
13:02
Uh, you're right on the surface, Jim, but there is also, I don't know, it, it, people go beyond just the simple lyrics part and that, so I'm just saying.
13:12
It, it's, it's a bigger divide than I think you're making it out to be, but all your points are valid.
13:16
Um, J- [laughs] New Jersey, New York, talking about Carl, he goes, "Mild rooting interest as a Broncos helmet rests in the background."
13:23
[laughs] Mark Geiger, in-house attorney, "Same deal for the over 47 and a half long field goal prop. Made a winner by a penalty turning a 45-yard attempt by Elliott into a 50-yarder." Yeah.
13:34
Um, oh, Jason Stark, "Stearns takes the first set 7 to 5." Yeah, for subscribers, we had, uh, we had four, count them, four, uh, tennis picks in, uh, Doha, in Qatar on the hard courts. Peyton Stearns? Peyton Stearns.
13:46
I'm learning. Uh, she's up a set and a break now. We split the first two overnight. We hit on, uh, Sramkova, and lost on Ito. You know who those two girls are, uh, Kelly. I've warned you so many times about betting Ito.
13:58
[laughs] You're like, "What are you doing? Come on, man." And then, and so the other two dogs we have left are Stearns and Svitolina. Stearns up a set and a break.
14:04
Svitolina, they're go- they're in a third set now on serve. So Svitolina, Vondrousova is the one we're, uh, we're sweating there right now, and if Stearns can hang on, good for us.
14:14
Um, this is also from, pardon me, one more here. This is from, uh, C. Spackler, "Serious question.
14:19
I don't follow rap music, no problem with it or other music I don't follow, but I can't make out the lyrics so it's not enjoyable for me. Is that just my old age?" Yes. [laughs] In the words of Eddie Murphy- Yes.
14:31
[laughs]... yes. Uh, and then some, uh, ladies and gentlemen, some VSiN host on VSiN host crime. Matt Brown, our old Prime Time Action co-host chimes in, "The Super Bowl winning quarterback scored three touchdowns."
14:43
He means two touchdown passes and one, uh, on the ground. "That's all you need to say. The conversation ends there. We know how this award works. Kelly woke up this morning and looked in the mirror and said- [laughs]...
14:55
'Self, I think I'm gonna say that dumb thing. Try and stop me. I'm gonna do it.'" Oh, man. And he did it. Thank you, Matt Brown. I think it's garbage. I, no, I did not wake up this morning thinking that.
15:05
[laughs] No, I, I, I walked in this morning- I love that... and I, and I kinda asked the back, I'm like, "Is there, have you guys, like is there any controversy about this at all?" No, no.
15:12
Because I feel like there should be. I don't think there should be. I don't, because this was, this wasn't an Aaron Donald singular performance in that Rams Super Bowl win- I mean, look, y-... against the Bengals...
15:24
I'm not freaking out about it Yeah. All, all I'm saying is what you circled back to before is the biggest takeaway. Yeah. Like, like once again- And we said it...
15:32
I, I'm nev- I would never invest any money, and I don't wanna say about never, but almost never invest any money on a non-quarterback for Super Bowl MVP.
15:40
Right, but, but Matt's point is what sort of my point was, is that, yes, as great as the defense was, it wasn't like Jalen Hurts was like a wilting, what's the x- what's the metaphor? Sure.
15:50
He was- A shrinking violet, or what? Yeah... he was good. The defense put that team in front from the b- very beginning of the game. You're, you're 100% right, but as long as there's not one individual above all.
16:01
By the way, it was almost too big of a blowout for anybody to be like, "Well, boy, that Josh Sweat," 'cause a lot of Josh Sweat, in addition to his box score stuff, was him pressuring the quarterback.
16:12
He was playing great, but it's like you're not gonna get an MVP for, for constant pressuring. Matt Brown, you want me to say something dumb, I'll say something dumb.
16:19
Some of those J- some of those Hurts rushes in the second half when seven guys are blitzing and the- Oh... and the seas just parted, I coulda picked up three yards on those.
16:30
This is not quite as bad as your, you prefer football not in snow take, which you later backtracked on into a fan experience. Knocked over a mic. Sorry, guys. [laughs] Kelly's knocking over stuff, but it's up there.
16:42
I love that Matt chimed in on this. Ladies and gentlemen, let's talk some college baseball. Matt Grissom joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. We are always thrilled to have, uh, Matt on.
16:50
You can follow him on, at, uh, Grissom on X, Grissom on X on Twitter, and of course comes to us from collegebaseballinsiders.com. How you doing, man? I'm doing good. College baseball is finally here.
17:03
It just so happens to be on Valentine's Day, so like you say all the time, how can you not be romantic about baseball? Yeah. [laughs] And I'm gonna do Kelly- You don't have to be romantic... no favors here.
17:12
It's like, uh, get on the Beat Up Kelly train. [laughs] I'll throw you some names, try to one-up Gil with the tennis names. We're gonna talk about Bidwell, Szczek, Canarella, and Knock today. So- Oh, man...
17:25
get your pen ready 'cause we'll have a spelling- Wow. Wow... spelling lesson after this. Okay.
17:29
I also wanna just say, well, we don't have time so I'll, I'll get to this after with, with Jason, but, uh, there, there is a, uh, there's a Super Bowl hack that I wanna talk about next segment too, that has to do with other sports like this on Super Bowl Sunday.
17:41
Hmm. Um, okay.
17:42
Matt, uh, for those who are uninitiated on college baseball, we here on the show have, uh, made a little cottage industry, and you've been a big part of that, of, of betting college baseball to wild fortunes at some points, uh, in some cases.
17:57
The, here's what I, here's what I recall from last year, and you tell me just individually if these guys are gonna be prominent or if these teams will be.
18:05
But I, I always, I obviously remember Jace LaViolette from Texas A&M. Weren't they like one out short from winning the title or something like that, and then they didn't do it? Yeah. Am I remembering that correctly?
18:14
And- They won, they beat Tennessee in game one. Yeah. And then Tennessee just really slammed the door game, game two. Then game three, yeah, it was a wild pitch away. Oh.
18:25
It made it a lot closer than what it was, but Ultimately, Tennessee got it done And then of course, uh, Jamie Arnold, the pitcher from, uh, from your Seminoles, Florida State, Kelly, uh, he'll be back in college baseball, so can't wait for him.
18:36
Anyway, here- Let's go, Knowles. What's that? Let's go, Knowles. Let's go [laughs] Ba- ba- baseball's the only sport that, uh- Yeah, I mean, he's the best pitcher in the country.
18:42
The problem is he's got nobody to back him up right now. So- Tenn- Tennessee and LSU, the co-short shots at plus 850. A&M, the aforementioned Aggies at 9/1, then everybody in double digits.
18:53
Florida State's in there, uh, Kelly, at double digits, 17/1. All right, Matt, I, I bring the floor to you. Where do you wanna go with this? Uh, let's start with the stadium that's in the background here.
19:04
It's, uh, my own backyard, Arkansas Razorbacks. Not a homer pick. Dave Van Horn continues to be the, probably one of the best coaches in college baseball that has not won the big one.
19:15
Uh, but you talk about balance of pitching staff, it, this is the deepest pitching staff he's ever had, uh, led by Ohio State transfer Landon Beidelschies. Gonna be the third-day guy.
19:27
Zach Root from East Carolina, and then the sensational sophomore, Gabe Gackle, who, uh, had a 273 Sierra last year. Just absolute nails as a freshman and, uh, about 42 innings pitched in relief.
19:43
Uh, they, they struggled last year a- at the plate. That was their biggest issue, uh, why Kansas State came in there and just got to beat up on Hagen Smith.
19:52
They brought in a lot of transfers, Logan Maxwell for, from TCU, and they're just building this lineup to get on base and then knock it over your head.
20:01
So I, I feel like this is Arkansas's year to really get back to the College World Series.
20:06
He's always had a team that's built for the College World Series, where pitching is so predominantly the, the strong suit you've gotta have, uh, with also a good balance of hits.
20:16
So take it for what it's worth, but as a Razorback fan and somebody that knows a little bit about college baseball, I like Arkansas to both make the College World Series at +210 and win it for a f- 15/1's a great number.
20:32
Uh, I, I saw Jeff Davis hung it at Circa I think 11/1. It's down to about +900 in other places. So definitely shop around.
20:41
All right, and just to clarify, Matt, to make the College World Series is to make the bracket, correct? Correct. The, the eight final teams. Okay.
20:49
So think of it in basketball terms, like the Final Four, it's the Final Eight in Omaha. Final Eight, okay. So Arkansas to win, 15/1, and Arkansas to make, uh, at +210.
20:59
You also have the same sorts of bets for Clemson and Virginia. Yes. So let's hold off on Clemson first. Uh, Virginia, most balanced team, I think, in college baseball, outside of maybe Texas A&M.
21:12
The only difference is A&M, uh, lost Schlossnagle, their head coach. He is over across, uh, the town to, at Austin, uh, the Texas Longhorns. So A&M brings in Michael Early. I, I don't know.
21:27
We saw Jay Johnson do it with LSU a couple years ago. First-year head coach winning it all.
21:32
I just think every year in college baseball, there's, like, the one clear-cut team, but they somehow get eliminated in the Super Regionals. We saw Wake Forest do it. We saw Tennessee do it a couple years ago.
21:44
So I think Virginia is, um, just one of the o- most balanced teams. You've got Jay Woolfolk, Evan Blanco leading the, the day one, day two starting role.
21:56
They've got a lineup that returns four guys who combine to have 66 home runs, all batted over 1,000 OPS. The ACC and SEC are, are hands down the two best conferences.
22:07
It's not a slump for Virginia, but uh, they're, they're s- they're built to make it through the grueling ACC slate. And then Clemson, this was kind of my longer shot. They've got Cam Cannarella.
22:19
They've got Aiden Kannock, their, their true ace. I think Clemson at this number, they could make some noise.
22:25
Eric Bakich is a great coach that's been to, been to Omaha before, so I like the Tigers to finally get over the hump and, and get to Omaha. Matt, let's do this regularly this year, okay?
22:35
Let's, uh, let's not start- Sounds good... going a month or two in between talking. Yeah. Sounds good. I want one of those NCAA Insiders hats, please. I got you. Kelly, Kelly, let's do it. Matt Grissom, everybody.
22:45
[laughs] Uh, bet- uh, Grissom on X, on Twitter. Jason Weingarten in studio next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. In sports betting and trading, probability is the key to success.
22:59
Discover the power of high-probability trading with Todd "Bubba" Horwitz, a former floor trader and sports bettor with over 45 years of experience.
23:06
Visit bubbatrading.com/vsin and get a free e-book on options trading, and use code VSIN500 to save $500 on any purchase. Let's go to Alexander. We got tweets at Beating the Boo- uh, at Beating The Book.
23:19
"Good morning," from Keno Walker. He says, "What are your guys' thoughts on women's varsity flag football?" [laughs] You don't, you don't like the college baseball? Really? Uh, this is from, uh, Grant Betting X Factors.
23:29
"Had Dotson first touchdown, then isolated Hopkins last touchdown, and went big on it. Double gut punch. Pain. Ugh." Doug Knudsen Sports at Dougie Fresh 11, "I had Eagles to win by 31+ at 100/1.
23:46
Ouch. Eagles win 26 to 30 points, 60/1. Ouch. Eagles win all four quarters 15/1. Ouch." Oh, man. Uh, Colin Murphy, "You are not on an island, Kelly Bidlin, on this take.
23:59
The primary reason the Eagles were so dominant is because the front seven got after Mahomes on seemingly every snap." I think everybody agrees with that.
24:05
"Urtz was good, but Josh Sweat was up in Ma- in, uh, Mahomes' business multiple times. He's your MVP." He was great. I was the first person that mentioned him on our group chat. He shouldn't have won MVP.
24:18
It's, he c- he can't put his performance over the other guys on defense was my only point.
24:22
Um, ladies and gentlemen, uh, we are c- we are v- blessed to have this guy in studio with us, uh, for the second time in two days because Kelly and I did a special hour of a numbers game yesterday on Super Bowl Sunday.
24:34
You know him, uh, from being under a cloud of smoke. He remains under a cloud of smoke. @spreadapedia on Twitter, but in the flesh it's Jason Weingarten. How you doing, man? Pretty good. It's, uh, baseball season.
24:45
Good Super Bowl yesterday and- We're on to baseball Were you a winner? Uh, barely. I would, I would say probably a couple hundred bucks when all was said and done, but- Let's, let's lean into that mic once again...
24:56
nothing, uh- Yeah... nothing particularly exciting, although I can say the, uh, Chiefs' fourth, fourth quarter bet was, was never in doubt. Chiefs' fourth quarter bet never in doubt.
25:06
And the unders, you know, Saquon Barkley under, uh, Travis Kelce under, all that stuff ended up being good. Yeah.
25:11
The, the pass, the two and a half, over two and a half guys throwing a pass, that- Two, that was awesome... that worked out. Yeah. Uh, all the Chiefs tied bets did not work out.
25:20
DeAndre Hopkins, he ended up catching a touchdown pass, was not a factor in the game. Um- Did you have him for two touchdowns or one touchdown? I had one and two.
25:28
Oh, that's- I would've made way more money on the two, but at least- Yeah... you know, it's like you got the savers kinda. They- Yes, you do... saved the day. Um, but yeah, uh, not, not, not the best Super Bowl ever.
25:38
Um, it was, it was enjoyable to watch, but was not the, uh, the best betting day I've ever had. Let me, uh- [clears throat] By the way, I wanna hearken back to this 'cause I, I teased this.
25:47
Matt Grissom was just on, he was just talking college baseball.
25:49
Um, this reminds me, Captain Jack is, is, has an annual tradition where he does a Super Bowl stream the night before, really not just the night, but like afternoon into evening into night.
26:01
Um, and he's kind enough to have me on every year, and I, I have technical problems every time. That's kind of my thing. Did you miss your slot? Did you, did you bail on it? I missed my slot.
26:10
Well, I was actually there early. Oh, okay. And then I stepped on my glasses- Oh... getting ready to go to the airport. Oh no. So these are, these are actually my backup glasses, and I did the whole Twilight Zone thing.
26:19
It was finally I'm gonna get to go and watch the Super Bowl, and then crunch. Ugh.
26:23
So one of the great things that was, uh, sort of said on the, in the entire Super Bowl stream, Roxy, the great Roxy Roxborough was on, and Matt Grissom doing college baseball just reminded me of this.
26:34
Roxy has a great Super Bowl Sunday betting hack, which is that he go- on Super Bowl Sunday, he says, "I go bet my, my Major League Baseball season win totals plays."
26:48
The thinking being that he can bet much more on them on Super Bowl Sunday than he can any other time because Super Bowl Sunday betting is so frantic for the big game that there is not a supervisor in the world- [laughs]...
27:03
that will stop traffic, will stop the line flow and say, "Oh, you, you're over the limit on, on what we're allowing on these bets." So whatever amount he puts on them, they just take it and move on.
27:14
I thought that's a great strategy. It's probably a pretty effective strategy, like could've gone down yesterday at Circa and asked for whatever.
27:22
Um, I thought about doing it mostly just to be annoying and getting in line and saying, "Hey, what do you, what do you got on the Dodger?" You know, "What do you got on the Pirates?"
27:28
I did, I did it with the, with the day before, not Super Bowl Sunday, but Saturday evening when it was somewhat crowded. I did it with, uh, tennis futures at Doha, [laughs] and I thought the same thing.
27:38
I'm like, "Hey, wow, they're taking any amount of money here. This is pretty interesting." And they must be like, "What did you wanna bet?"
27:43
Mostly for me it's, it's about tying up cash in, in early February when I know- Yeah... I'm gonna end up betting a ton more futures.
27:52
It's not like, it's not that I don't wanna do it, it's also I'd rather do it on credit, but, um- Well, yes. Well, there's that first of all. There's that, too.
27:59
Rem- remind the folks what your, uh, season win totals bets that you already have in baseball are.
28:03
So I brought, I brought the sheet so I can give you the, uh, the best numbers, everything I could see, everything I could tell you. Got the Padres under 85.
28:11
I think they're, uh, they're not gonna be a good team this year. I got Dodgers under 104. I actually have them at 103. I don't think the Dodgers have an incentive to win over 104 games.
28:23
I, I, I just don't think the, the front office, the way they go into the season, they don't, they don't care if they win 110 games, 105 games, a hund- whatever.
28:33
Like, the goal is to win the World Series, not to win the- Well, the goal is to win the division, have the best record. Yeah, and speaking of- Yeah...
28:39
winning the division, um, I don't know if you've ever seen a number like this, but I saw at Circa the Dodgers are minus 700 to win the division. Have you ever seen a number that high preseason? Wow.
28:47
Minus s- I don't think I do. I don't think I, I have either. Remember that. Yeah. Um, Angels- Who, if, if someone does win that division, you're not high on the Padres this year, so I- No... I get it, you know?
28:57
Absolutely not. Yeah. I think, no, I, I mean,
29:00
I think Dodgers are just, going into training camp especially, or spring training, um, especially if they end up trading for Nolan Arenado, I think on paper this is the- [laughs]... best assemblage of talent- Oh, God.
29:11
Are they really-... in I don't even know how many years. You wanna say- Are they really trading for Arenado? I think- Is that gonna happen, too?
29:15
I think that's, that he's, they're trying to get him to basically be one of their, their, you know, utility/bench players. Why not get Bonds outta retirement and just, just, you know, do that? Why not? Let's do it.
29:25
I'm, I'm all for it. [laughs] Batting cleanup, Barry Lamar Bonds. But, uh, I- That's how, that's how ridiculous this is getting...
29:32
I think this is one of the best assemblages of talent that I can recall, I don't know, since the '90s Yankees. Since the '90s Yankees, that's what comes to mind. Probably even before that, honestly. Yeah, yeah.
29:43
Uh, Padres under, Angels under 71 and a half. I, I don't like the Angels. Oh, wait, did we, I was gonna say, did we hear that one from you before? No, we haven't, we haven't talked about that yet.
29:50
All right, Angels under. So okay, Dodgers under we've heard from you just 'cause it's such a gaudy number. Padres under, you've, you've made the case here on the show. What's the Angels under about?
29:59
They're just not a good organization. Like, I don't buy Yusei Kikuchi as your marquee offseason signing. [laughs] Like, congratulations, you're trying. You're not trying hard enough.
30:09
Like, I, I just, uh, first thing I do when I start looking at win totals is I circle the bad organizations, and I look at what their numbers are to make the playoffs, miss the playoffs, their win totals.
30:20
I'm, you know, I've, I've mentioned this before.
30:23
A lot of times people are always focused on the head of the pack, the best teams, but, like, you know, you're a cheetah and, you know, y- you're tracking down prey, you go for the slowest gazelle, not the fastest.
30:36
Mm-hmm. So I'm, I'm always trying to pick off the stragglers first. Before I decide who's gonna win the World Series, I try to figure out, well, who are all the worst teams? You know, what are they projected to do?
30:47
And, you know, let's see where we could find the value there. Like for example, the Rockies. Rockies are at 60. Which, again, the Rockies aren't a good team, but they are an average team, at least at home.
30:57
So 60 wins isn't asking a lot out of a professional baseball team. Like, guys don't go out there and try to lose every day. 60 wins, like, I could take the over on that with the Rockies. Could or have? I have. Okay.
31:09
I didn't do it here. I, like I said, I like to do a lot of this on credit when I can at least start. Well. Um, but over 60, great, great number.
31:16
I mean, like, you, you walk backwards into 60 wins, un- unless you're the White Sox, I guess. What's, what's the... And remind folks what the White Sox unbelievably anemic season win total number is. 52 and a half.
31:28
Oh, didn't we have it at the high 40s when it first came out, I thought, somewhere? It might have, it might have moved. I have, I have the- Yeah... the, o- I have opening numbers here.
31:35
Um- But that's what you're talking about.
31:36
It's so low that even the worst outfit, right, even the worst baseball teams usually, not always- I don't wanna touch the White Sox You don't wanna- I tell you, I, I, I don't mind betting the Rockies over 60, but the White Sox, just, just as a team, like when you look at that roster- You won't, you're not doing it You don't have to bet every win total, and that's one I'm gonna pass on.
31:55
The, uh, the Braves was the other one I mentioned, under 92. We actually, by the way, and I won't, I obviously I won't name names, but we, one of our listeners happens to be in the White Sox organization. Yeah.
32:05
And on, on the down low, [laughs] he sorta, like, lets us know that things are grim. Things are grim. Yeah. And that's the thing is especially, like, the Marlins are another team.
32:15
Like, you could just, like, like, you could read some of the comments, like the, the new manager who's, who's from the Dodgers, he was saying, "Every day is a day to improve."
32:22
That's, that's how they're going into the season. That's not a winning strategy.
32:26
You know, that's not a team that's try- uh, not, I'm not saying they're not trying to win, but that's not a team that's committed to winning.
32:32
And then you look at there to make the playoff odds, again, you know, I was saying the Dodgers to, to make the playoffs are minus 700. The Marlins are minus 1,000 to miss the playoffs.
32:42
No, excuse me, they're minus 10,000 to miss the playoffs. They're 25 to 1 to make the playoffs, minus 10,000 to miss the playoffs. I've never seen a number that big, except the White Sox.
32:51
The White Sox are, uh, minus 20- 27,000, so, you know, that's- That's a very specific- They're saying don't even, don't even show up to spring training apparently. Minus 27,000. It's very specific.
33:01
Yeah, twen- 27,500 actually. Oh, there you go. So you gotta, gotta lay the extra five, yeah. Yeah. Oh. So okay, so how many season win totals total is that? That's, uh- Four or five so far...
33:09
Dodgers under, Padres under, Angels over, Rockies over. What was the fifth? Let's see. Sorry, I got it right here. Uh, got it right here somewhere.
33:18
We got Padres under, Angels under, Dodgers under, Rockies over, Braves under. Braves un- Oh, Braves under... Braves under, because- Hold that, hold that thought. Hold that thought till after the break. Got it.
33:29
More baseball and random betting thoughts from Jason Weingarten under a cloud of smoke in studio right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:38
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander. Kelly Bilin is, uh, behind the glass because Jason Weingarten is in his chair, uh, @spreadapedia on Twitter.
34:08
Always, uh, thrilled to have Jason in the few times that we have been able to through the years. Uh, before we get back to Jason, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Wanna read some of these from y'all.
34:16
This is, uh, RichPSM. Rich, I appreciate this tweet. Rich says, "So can we please bury the hate myself for betting against reason in any sport, especially on this show founded on math?
34:29
I mean, remember the 2001 Diamondbacks beating Mariano and the great Yankees. Here I said the Bucs already killed these legends."
34:36
Um, not sure I understand that last part, but, but Rich, I, I appreciate the sentiment, which is we do everything by data and math, typically betting-wise.
34:44
But yes, this was one of these Super Bowls, or not one of these Super Bowls, but this is one of these betting events where it was more of a self, the, the fear of self-loathing bet than it was anything else, so I totally appreciate the sentiment.
34:55
Drew from Boise, "Gil, have a great vacation, enjoy and relax. Talking baseball and the Giants when you return?" Yes, we will absolutely talk baseball, that's for sure. "See you at the West Coast Conference Tourney."
35:05
Yes, Drew from Boise, a, uh, a tradition unlike any other. I will be at the Orleans for the West Coast Conference Tournament when the college basketball conference tournaments begin here, uh, in Vegas and beyond.
35:17
Uh, and this is from, I love this tweet, Jason. You're gonna appreciate this one. This, this is, [laughs] oh wait, one more before that.
35:23
Mario Romero, who says, uh, "High of the game was Hurts' first touchdown five to one, so I was sitting in a decent spot until Mahomes hit that 50-yard touchdown to go over his passing yards at garbage time.
35:34
Gotta love betting, LOL." This is the one I wanted to tell, uh, talk about.
35:38
Dgen Southern Gent, "Gil, I don't recall ever wanting to turn off a Numbers Game, but hearing Jason say the Dodgers are going to get Arenado almost- [laughs]... almost triggered that.
35:49
I have never hated a professional sports organization as much as I hate the Dodgers." He- See, I think a lot of people feel that way He's not, like, in his prime anymore. He has a huge contract.
35:58
I don't, I don't really see what the deal is. Yeah, but, yeah, but you know what happens. I know. I mean- He'll put on a Dodgers uniform, and all of a sudden he'll hit 30 again. Probably. Um- I hope so...
36:06
Frank Alexander, "Hey Gil, listening to you bring up the Roxy game day hack and had the pleasure to run into him at the Westgate last Wednesday as I was shopping props.
36:13
He was looking at, uh, regular season win total baseball totals. He was kind enough to lend me his ear for 10 minutes and share wisdom."
36:22
Roxy is, uh, not only the best-dressed man in any sportsbook, but also the kindest, uh, and the, uh, the greatest gentleman there is.
36:30
Um, yeah, you don't, you, you take the approach with the Dodgers, and let's just be clear, Jason is not a Dodgers fan, ladies and gentlemen. He has made that clear. I went two games last year. Okay.
36:41
Um- And a World Series game. You have no, you have no issue, we've already stated this before, you have no issue with the fact that they can accumulate as much talent.
36:48
They just pay the luxury tax, and that's that, and that's that. Um, the Braves, you said. Under on the Braves? Under on the Braves. Why? Everybody coming back's a year older.
36:58
Got Chris Sale, who was great last year, couldn't finish the season, cost me a lot of money. Um, they were one game away from not making the playoffs anyways. Had to come down to that. Remember?
37:08
I mean, that was a crazy last day of the season. Oh my God. Double header. You remember? Win, lose, what's gonna happen? How great was that? Came, came down to the last day of the season last year.
37:16
This year they've already said Spencer Strider's not starting the season with them, Ronald Acuña's not starting the season with them, and coming off a, a, a, an ACL injury like that, you don't come back 100% day one.
37:28
A lot of times it takes you a while to get your timing, get your power back, so expecting MVP Ronald Acuña back on day one is a lot.
37:35
Um, I just think it's a very high number for the Braves, especially in the division with the Mets and the Phillies, you know, who are gonna take a lot of wins. Uh, I could see them going under 92 wins.
37:46
I could also see them missing the playoffs. They're 205, plus 205 to miss the playoffs here at Circa. I think that's a good number. Uh, they came down, like I said, the last game of the season last se- last season.
37:57
Wouldn't surprise me to see them kinda, you know, die out down the stretch this year. Um- Okay. So five season win total plays from Jason. Do you, have you bet, I mean, are these even out? These are all out.
38:09
They're all down. No, no, I know those are out, but are, are any of the awards out? Uh, I've seen Cy Young, I've seen, uh, MVP. I saw Rookie of the Year at Caesars. I have not bet any of those yet. Oh.
38:19
Um, my first look through the markets, there was, like, nothing. I was like, "Oh, I gotta run out and bet that number right now." This was the end of January they first showed up.
38:27
Um, but yeah, I looked through the numbers. There's very little that I'm, like, dying MVP-wise or, uh, Cy Young-wise to really get down on early. I'm probably guessing
38:40
first, second week of spring training, which is right around the corner. I mean, pitchers and catchers are reporting right now. Oh, uh, you just triggered it for me, 'cause you, you said Cy Young.
38:49
Skeens obviously a short shot to win. He's gonna be the favorite. But, but, uh, the, but you have a Pirates thought on a, on a playoff make, make or miss?
38:58
Yeah, it's a big number, but I see the Pirates are minus 510 here at Circa to miss the playoffs. I think that number is way low. Uh, they were, what, the last place team in the NL Central last year.
39:07
They didn't sign a free agent, and I guess, unless you expect Paul Skeens to pitch nine innings twice a week, I, I don't see- Would you lay minus 510 on it? I would on credit. Yeah.
39:17
Um, would I do it right now on my way out of town? Uh- No, no... not likely. No. I'd rather have that money- Yeah... for- Credit, credit is-... for spring training. I'd, you know, like. Credit's a beautiful thing.
39:27
Yeah, but would I lay it if I have it available to me on credit? Absolutely. Um, okay, football, obviously with the, uh, Super Bowl now in the rear view,
39:36
how do, do you often gravitate towards football futures at this point, or do you wait on those? No.
39:42
I mean, the draft is kinda the next thing, although draft betting has kinda taken over in its own, uh, it, it's, you know, there's no, it- It ain't the lock it used to be...
39:53
it's not the just show up and bet, bet money and win money thing that it used to be. Yeah. Now there's a million people giving out plays- Yeah... and telling you what's going on, and- Yeah...
40:01
it's a more competitive market. Um, but as far as NFL futures, unless you have something that, like, you really, like a team you really think's bouncing back next year, it's, it's baseball season for me. It's time to
40:14
change attempts and completions and rushing yards to ERAs and strikeouts and home runs. I love it. And I, I- You know, it takes a week or two to, to, in your head, the terminology.
40:23
Like, I'm still thinking, you know, touchdowns, and I gotta start thinking home runs, so. But I, I do appreciate, here's the thing.
40:28
Uh, you know, what's the Deion Sanders, when Deion Sanders used to play both football and baseball simultaneously, he had the famous line that I mentioned before.
40:36
It hearkens back to the old anti-drug campaign on TV, which was, he used to say, "Baseball is my brain. Football is my brain on crack." And that's how I feel like it when it comes to handicapping the two sports also.
40:47
And baseball, I, I know younger generations don't like it, but man, the, these seasons have been awesome lately. Like, these, the most recent seasons. You, you mentioned the, the close to the regular season last year.
40:59
Um, let's review all of Jason's bet. These are all of the bets on every show, every host, every guest, courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN. Uh, Jason with a slew for us.
41:09
Here are all his season win totals, once again from Jason. Padres under 85 and a half wins. The Dodgers, as good as he thinks they will be and as good as they are projected to be, 104 and a half wins is a lot.
41:22
Jason's got the under on that as well. Uh, he thinks the Angels organization is crappy, under 71 and a half wins. [laughs] Yeah. My words. Rockies over 60 wins.
41:31
As bad as that organization is, you still think 60 is too low. And the- They also, they're just a, a, a, a slightly better than average home team. They have, you know, they, they play well at home at altitude.
41:42
They, you walk backwards into 60 wins. Rockies, come on. They're supposed to tailor that roster to that ballpark and, and, uh, to that extent, they have.
41:50
Braves, the fifth one, under 92 and a half wins for all the reasons he just gave. gbank upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for a new gbank Visa Signature card.
42:01
Uh, if you're a new Visa, gbank Visa Signature card customer, that is. First, new customers who spend $1,000 on eligible purchases within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
42:12
In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. They did the math for us.
42:25
Apply now at visin.com/gbank. That's visin.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Uh, we didn't mention this, but you were here in town, obviously, and you remain in town.
42:36
You're flying out today as well.
42:37
Um, the last thing, and this is more like a, a, a Bill Krackomberger segment with me, but Vegas was as anemic in terms of it being populated for a Super Bowl than I ever remember it, and I don't know if it was because the Super Bowl was here last we- uh, last year, and those that were more likely to come to Vegas this year sort of had that experience, and even to watch it here in Vegas, they were like, "Yeah, that was kind of expensive.
43:04
I'm not doing that again." But it, it, I know one unnamed, I will not name, I know one casino executive
43:11
that I know who said, "It's as if we kept raising prices, kept raising prices, kept raising prices until they said uncle," and it finally happened. Was that your impression?
43:25
It's very expensive to come to Vegas, even for a weekend now. Uh, I've been coming here, I don't even know how many years, since 2006 regularly, I'd say. Um, prices have gone up on everything.
43:37
It was relatively cheap to s- to get a room here this weekend, which I thought was- Oh, the numbers crashed... surprising. Yeah.
43:42
But in general, food, you know, you wanna go down and get a bottle of water, like, it, it very much has become a nickel and dime sort of thing where you're just, you know, 20 bucks here, 20 bucks here, 50 bucks there.
43:54
It's just, it adds up. Um, and you know, it's, it's fun. I love Vegas, but it's definitely not a, not a budget-friendly town anymore. Yeah. Well, glad you came by. Glad you came by yesterday.
44:07
Thanks for coming in studio today. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it. A lot of fun. I always love being here. Jason Weingarten, @spreadapedia on the old Twitter machine.
44:15
Uh, Stearns with a win for, uh, subscribers at visin.com/picks, and Svitolina right now two points away. Come on, get there. Um, I'm on vacation. Joe Cirillo next for the rest of the week with Kelly. Enjoy.
44:32
Stormy next here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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