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Feb 13, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 13, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 13, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right. Welcome into a numbers game.
0:13
He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Cirillo, getting ready to take you through this Thursday morning as we gear up for the weekend ahead. Kelly, a lot of NBA action last night. Can't say the same for the weekend ahead- Yes...
0:25
but we'll have, you know, the Slam Dunk contest, the All-Star game. Are you an All-Star game bettor? This tells me a lot about someone's personality. Uh, it's a great question. Uh, All-Star game bettor?
0:35
No, not for, not for the past few years. Have different format once again this year, so I don't even really know if there's gonna be good betting possibilities for that.
0:44
Now, the Three-Point Contest, I'll, I'll get involved with. Y- y- yeah. That, you're gonna be sitting there Saturday night eating a thing of Domino's and just firing away three point contest entries.
0:52
Oh, come on, we can do better than Domino's, man. Come on. I would hope. I, that, that- Unless you want to sponsor this show, Domino's [laughs] then I love you.
0:57
Uh- That, I think that's what my high school Saturday nights used to look like. [laughs] Domino's and firing away, you know, Three-Point Contest and Dunk Contest bets. The, the, uh, uh...
1:04
Look, Three-Point Contest, I'll usually pick two or three guys a- a- and then just, uh, a- and ride with that. 'Cause I think there is, like, you could at least handicap that a little bit.
1:13
You can look at stats from the season, wide open three-point attempts, who's shooting what, and, yeah, it's a little bit more of a gut feel thing, and it's smaller bets.
1:20
I'm not saying it's a huge, great betting opportunity, but it's, uh, it's one I like to get involved with. And then you watch the other nonsense that goes on. I, I mean, it also is about- The Skills Challenge...
1:29
your only option Saturday night. If you're not a college hoops guy, I obviously am, Kelly not so much. Yep. If you're not a college hoops guy, that might be your only option Saturday night to get some action out there.
1:38
Uh, it might as well have been a three-point shootout at Madison Square Garden last night. Mm-hmm. Knicks-Hawks overtime, and, uh, they don't call it under time, guys. 149-148 the final there at MSG.
1:50
I thought the Knicks early were gonna run away with that one, Kelly. Yeah, it was look- And then Atlanta just lingered. Yeah, it was looking like that. And, man, it was so much... It's too, way too many games on.
1:58
Way too many games. We don't ever need- With every team... every team in action.
2:01
Like, there was, I, you know, you and I were joking about it, we'll get to it, and I'm like, "I'm watching Thunder and the Thunder game, and don't even realize this ga- this game is going like this at the end, where it's, uh, becoming a tie game and going to overtime, and I have to switch it over for OT."
2:15
Uh, but yeah, it just a cra- a crazy high scoring game, Knicks-Hawks. We expected it to be, uh, you know, a good one.
2:21
We talked about that yesterday, and it was like, "Yeah, we both got a lead, Knicks, but I'm not laying the points with what we've seen Trey do, uh, in the Garden before." So yeah, great game.
2:28
Knicks come on, uh, come out on top. Yeah, I was thinking Knicks would win.
2:32
I was leaning Atlanta plus the eight because of the spot for the Knicks traveling back from Indy and coming, uh, you know, coming home, second leg of a back-to-back.
2:38
One interesting trend that in the second half I think we need to start paying attention to, Knicks starters. On the back end of a back-to-back, uh, their numbers are through the roof.
2:48
Going over points numbers, Brunson averaging over 30, KAT averaging about 35, all in the second leg of a back-to-back. That's interesting.
2:57
Um, I actually thought you were gonna go maybe bring up that they were, that they were giving up more points, just because those guys play so many minutes already.
3:03
Well, in, in this game they did, but no, they're scoring a ton- Okay... in the second leg of a back-to-back.
3:07
And it showed again, Brunson had 36 in the win, Karl-Anthony Towns had 44, 10 boards, double double, Josh Hart 18, 10 boards, double double. Uh, it was just, you know, an offensive outburst for the Knicks. Mm-hmm.
3:18
Coming off a game in Indy where, uh, I believe one of our guests yesterday made the great point, kind of an emotional game at, at the Pacers.
3:25
Obviously, it's a regular season spot in early February, but still, given the history between the two teams, their rivalry in the playoffs, kind of an emotional spot.
3:33
You could've seen this being a letdown, and it almost was in the second half, but collected themselves, got the win in OT. Yep.
3:38
Yeah, I mean, honestly, two, two big games for, for the Knicks, uh, back-to-back with, uh, just the Eastern Conference and how it's shaping up.
3:45
Uh, a- and yes, with what has happened with these teams [laughs] and the Knicks before in the past. Now, Oklahoma City, you mentioned your best bet- Yeah... laying 13 and a half. That was pretty sweat-free, huh? Yeah.
3:54
[laughs] Got there easily? Okay, I got 12 and a half, Joe, so it was really easy, okay? Oh, excuse me.
3:57
[laughs] But no, the, uh, it was one of those games, one of those classic bets of, okay, we, we say this all the time, but I'm sorry, I'm gonna say it again.
4:04
We all love to complain about the bad beats and close losses we have. Remember when you get lucky and get one home that you should not, and, and had no business getting home. Thunder was that for me last night.
4:15
The Miami Heat scored eight points i- uh, in the fourth quarter and, uh, if you had team total under on Miami, you got there. If you had Oklahoma City laying the points, you got there.
4:26
I, it, it just, it, ridiculous fourth quarter. I couldn't believe the, uh, couldn't believe it, I was watching it, and I was like, "Is this really gonna have a chance?" And they actually got home.
4:33
So that was, uh, that was a good one for the evening, and, uh, we'll, uh, I'll take that kind of luck every time, Joe. I, it, it's one of those, it's still lucky, you gotta remember it.
4:42
But it was kind of part of the handicap, was we knew the Heat were dealing with some illness flying around. They had multiple guys out because of it.
4:48
I think no shocker when you get to the second half, they w- they looked dead tired, uh, and especially in that fourth quarter were not able to do anything against this OKC team.
4:55
And you did, to your credit, we were talking about two teams in this respect, Boston and Oklahoma City, and you pointed out these two teams, 'cause I had mentioned the Celtics game potentially playing the first half.
5:05
They were laying five against San Antonio. That got there with ease. Full game got there as well.
5:09
But you had mentioned that the way that the Celtics and Thunder are constructed, if the game is close after three quarters, they can just completely run away with it in the fourth. Right. Yep.
5:18
And so that did, you know, I don't know if that's exactly how we thought the Thunder-Heat game was gonna play out, but it did get you home in that case. Yeah, exactly. Yep. No, no, it absolutely is.
5:25
It's just they're so, they're so, both teams so deep, so much talent, and, and you go up against some of these other teams, Miami. Miami a good example, especially when they have a couple guys out.
5:33
You're already a little short on talent and what's available in your starting lineup, and then when you go to compare benches, uh, just OKC, what they can throw out y- uh, throw at you is overwhelming.
5:41
How about that Houston/Phoenix game? Two cold teams coming into play. The Suns up by eight going into the fourth quarter, and Houston laying six-and-a-half outscores them by 16 in the fourth quarter, 35-19.
5:54
Not only do they get home with the win, they get there with the cover as well, an eight-point win for a team that was trailing by eight going into the last quarter. Yeah, it was impressive.
6:02
I mean, this is, you know, we brought it, we've brought it up the past couple days, but definitely if you're betting NBA, you gotta bookmark a couple of these teams to keep your eye on.
6:09
I, I, we, it's easy for us to forget about things when we hit this All-Star break and we don't play basketball for almost a week. Um, when we come back, it's bookmark things like where are the Phoenix Suns at?
6:20
Where are the Dallas Mavericks at? Where are some of these teams at that, uh, you know, we had a lot of questions about and, and honestly, I've been fading, uh, you know, the Suns and the Mavericks.
6:28
And that, uh, you know, we go over to the Dallas/Golden State game. Okay, Mavericks end up playing, uh, playing well and getting a W.
6:34
And I, honestly, Joe, I think that changed my mind a little bit about Mavs going forward with what they were able to do last night of just, uh, you know, outside of really one game, they've, they've, they've fought.
6:43
They've at least fought in almost every one of these games so far, uh, without AD, without Luka. And uh, it's, it's been impressive.
6:50
So I, I know I was talking about kind of looking at them as being a fade candidate for me going forward, but let's see what an All-Star break does. You get some time for these guys to coll- recollect their thoughts.
6:59
I think it's going back to Phoenix with Kevin Durant, all the trade rumors and everything going around. I'm sure that guy has not been a ha- happy camper the past week or so.
7:07
But okay, now you get a week to chill out, relax, recollect yourself. Especially with the Phoenix Suns, we know how much talent they have. Can you actually put it together on the basketball court's the big question.
7:16
So I think it's couple, you know, bookmark these ki- type of notes for when we get back to, in action next week.
7:21
It, it's funny that you beat me to the Kevin Durant stuff, 'cause my next question I was gonna ask you is how frustrated do you think that guy is right now?
7:29
42 minutes last night, which I feel like is uncharacteristically- Mm... a dash high for him. 37 points, 5 boards, 9 assists, also uncharacteristically high for him.
7:37
But listen to the rest of the starting five he's working with. Royce O'Neale, Nick Richards, Bol Bol, Tius Jones. Yeah. I mean, is that what he signed up for in Phoenix? [laughs] Right, exactly. Yeah, exactly. So yeah.
7:49
It's, uh, these are the type of things, we gotta see how he... The, the problem is Durant, as once he gets on the court, he's still Kevin Durant. You know? Right.
7:55
It's just, uh, you know, we'll see if anything hap- more happens off the court. I, I mean, it couldn't save them in the fourth quarter, though.
8:00
They went into that with an eight-point lead, end up squandering that lead and losing the game, not even covering. Uh, Golden State/Dallas, you mentioned that game.
8:09
Do the Mavericks deserve more credit, or do the Warriors deserve more criticism after a game like that? Man, I think it's...
8:16
I, I'm gonna, I'll, I'll go a, a little bit of both, which I guess is the, uh, the easy way out. But I- Kelly's running for office everywhere... you know, I'm gonna go Dallas more credit, though.
8:22
I'll give, I'll give Dallas more credit. Way to step up y- and get a W here after everything that's happened the past couple weeks.
8:28
I think Golden State, and we're g- we're, we're gonna talk about it next segment [laughs] but I think Golden State hosted the All-Star game. I think maybe that was the prime candidate, and I whiffed on this completely.
8:40
I, I laid five and got out to eight, closed at eight with Golden State- Wow... so a lot of people whiffed on this.
8:45
I think Golden State's thinking about hosting an All-Star game in San Francisco and not really enjoying being on the road right now.
8:51
And, uh, wa- they need a week for them, for them to get their team together here and go forward. Is it bad that I had no idea this weekend's All-Star game was in Golden State? Mm, no. I had no clue. No.
9:01
That, that's how little I pay attention to the NBA All-Star game. [laughs] I feel- I don't even know the format this year. Kelly, what is the format?
9:06
It's, I feel like we're now in the rotation, too, with the like, uh, you know, like the Pro Bowl. I've gotta double-check every year, too, where I'm like, "We're not- We do that in Orlando now, right?
9:13
Yeah, like we're not going back to Hawaii or anything, right? We're just in Orlando now and everything. So yeah, we'll, we'll talk to All-Star game a little bit more tomorrow.
9:20
But they, yeah, they, we've redone formats where they're drafting teams and all that stuff. Yeah, what is the format? Is it four teams? It's, it's four teams. I'll have to pull up all the details. Yeah.
9:27
I don't even know them off the top of my head. That'll be for tomorrow, for sure. Think about fantasy guys. What do you think about Kyrie moving forward? Can Kyrie single-handedly will this team? It's a great question.
9:36
It's a great question, 'cause it's, it is the question when it comes to the Dallas Mavericks, and I think from the basketball player standpoint that we've seen on the court, Kyrie Irving, yeah, he can.
9:46
And, and it, it, lo- one of the big knocks about the Luka trade was, man, so much of this team was constructed to play around Luka Dončić.
9:53
Now, a lot of that still applies for Kyrie Irving, but it, you are asking him to just do an incredible amount on the basketball court, both, both scoring and assisting the ball, uh, running this offense completely.
10:08
I, I, it's just, it's tough. I think Kyrie's that good of a player that, that yeah, he can do that, but not to have the o- the other surrounding talent, uh, to take them to another level is gonna be the problem.
10:19
Kelly, how about this Lakers/Utah game? 131-119, Jazz get their 13th win. Uh, I mean, how concerned should you be? Obviously, Luka's minutes still restricted, only played 23. Mm.
10:30
But if, if you're the Lakers, you expect to blow them out of the water, a team like Utah. How, how concerned should LA be? Man, um, I don't think a ton, except, except for I'll keep going back to at the center position.
10:41
My double double didn't get home with, uh, Walker Kessler. I know, I was tracking that for you. Yeah, with Walker Kessler, but he was still a beast inside with six blocks.
10:48
It's just th- these are the type of things that they're gonna have, uh, they, they're gonna have some problems with, with some of the bigs that they go up against.
10:54
So it's, the, a- as far as the Lakers offense and Luka Dončić and all that, I'm not worried about that at all. Let's give it time. Uh, that will come together.
11:02
It's just, uh, do they have the right team makeup for this to go forward? I mean, this was not the plan.
11:07
The plan was to add, uh, Mark Williams, uh, uh, before the, before the trade deadline and go forward with a real center in your lineup, but they don't, they're not really- Yeah... they don't really have that right now.
11:17
No, they're definitely lacking size down low. Folks, we've got a great rest of the show coming up. How about these guests we've got?
11:22
To round out our number one, more NBA talk with Vsan's own Zach Cohen coming up in about 20 minutes. Then Phil Bobbitt, motorsports handicapper, gonna break down everything you need to know about the Daytona 500.
11:35
On the other side, we'll look at last night's college hoops card, and I'll already start dishing out some best bets in college basketball for the night to come. It's a numbers game. He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Serallo.
11:45
Don't go anywhere. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:03
A numbers game continues. He's Kelly Bedell and I'm Joe Serallo, taking you through this Thursday morning as the NBA winds down and we get ready for the All-Star break upcoming this weekend.
12:12
Lot of great college hoops action going on this time of year. Split the difference last night with the best bets. Went one and one, lost on St. John's. Great game between the Johnnies and Villanova.
12:23
Got home on Drake at Illinois State. Kelly, is that incredible run of Missouri Valley teams covering on the road continues there. What's it up to? It's like 55 and 30, something obscene. Wow. Okay. Yeah.
12:36
Road teams in the Missouri Valley, absolutely the move. We've got some Summit League action. I know Kelly is really excited about that. I, I, I mean, Joe, don't fall asleep when Missouri Valley teams come h- [laughs]...
12:46
come to play you, okay man? That's what it is, obviously. Clearly. So we, we've got a couple picks in the Summit League we'll get to later on this segment coming up shortly. Some more NBA action tonight.
12:58
Not quite the slate we had yesterday, just about four or five games to get to tonight, I believe five total.
13:03
And, uh, Kelly, you're already getting people reaching out to you, some friends you haven't spoken to since middle school asking for your lock of the century. Is that what's going on here?
13:11
Oh, no, it was the, I, I w- I was just gonna bring up yesterday the, the... We all get this, but you know, the friend who checks in like every few weeks like, "Hey, you bet- what are you betting today? You got anything?"
13:19
Like, clearly like they just are gonna be at the bar and they wanna watch or something, right? Yep.
13:22
So I, I, r- I had a friend text and I gave him a, I gave him a couple things I was on, but Thunder was one of them, right? And he was laying 13 and a half. And of course it's the...
13:33
Like, look, we always say, "Hey, judge us on what we do over a course of, o- over the course of a season, not what we do in a, in a day or a week or something like that," right?
13:41
So of course, I send him Thunder th- and he got 13 and a half. They won by 14, right? So he's laying 13 and a half.
13:48
In the third, in the third quarter, beginning of the third quarter I get a text message of like, "Oh, great call on this one." He had the audacity to ask you for a pick- Oh, the audacity, Joe... and then say this.
13:57
The audacity. So, all right. You know what's funny? I got a message the other day on Instagram in my DMs, and I'm like, "Who is this?" And it looked like it was, like some college lacrosse player. Yeah.
14:05
I'm like, "Why is this kid DM-ing me?" And then he goes, "Yo, my mom was your guidance counselor in high school. Got any locks tonight?" [laughs] And I'm looking at the name, and frankly I didn't recognize the name.
14:17
And I'm thinking to myself, "Shoot, if your mom's guidance got me here-" [laughs] "... we've got some problems." If that's, if that's the guidance that I received, we've got some problems.
14:26
I just, I had to leave it unopened. Oh, man, that's awesome. I was like, I'm not sending a, a- Yeah... you know, some kid who's got a lacrosse picture as his bio a, a lock of the night, you know?
14:33
I, I will say though, that's the, uh... I, I would believe that's a real person, though, 'cause that's, that's, that's one of those stories of like how could you make that up?
14:39
Could've said he was Uncle Ned's kid and I wouldn't have known the difference. [laughs] That's, like who, who makes that up? Like, nobody's like, "Guidance counselor, yes." Right? That's what I'm gonna say was.
14:47
I should've written back, "My guidance counselor was a dude. I don't know what you're talking about." [laughs] So Kelly, five games on the slate coming up tonight.
14:54
Golden State Houston, Rockets laying the same number they were against Phoenix yesterday, six and a half.
14:59
Not really a big travel spot for Gold- I mean, look, if you don't know Texas geography, folks, Dallas and Houston are not exactly next door to one another, but at least it's- Yeah...
15:07
you know, an in-state spot for the Warriors here. You liking catching six and a hook, bounce back? Man, it's, uh... I, I will be staying w- way away from this one. This game opened up.
15:17
There are a couple lines tonight in the NBA that moved wild from where things opened up. This opened up as Houston a one-point favorite yesterday.
15:25
We are out to six and a ha- It got all the way out to seven when I was looking at stuff this morning. It's coming back to six, six and a half now. Steph Curry already listed as questionable for a rest spot here tonight.
15:35
I have a feeling we're g- I have a feeling we're not gonna see Curry. I have a feeling we're not seeing Jimmy Butler.
15:40
Uh, this would be the first back-to-back that Jimmy Butler's played in since joining the Golden State Warriors, still kind of ramping up. I think I'd be a little surprised if he goes tonight.
15:48
Rockets got their own issues, Joe. Th- I m- this was one that I had circled early of like it'd be Warriors or nothing.
15:54
Um, I guess that would still be the case at number, but you can't do anything with this until we know what the injury situation is.
16:00
I mean, if there's no Steph, no Jimmy, if that's being baked into this five-point movement, I'd have to lean Houston. No? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, but I, uh, Houston's got their own injuries going on, too. Right.
16:09
So this is, I mean, final night before the All-Star break, folks. Just fair warning, if you are betting, go, I would go lighter. Uh, and make sure- Good night to keep your hands in your pockets potentially. Yeah.
16:18
Make sure you know exactly what's going on with some of these teams before you bet them. We just talked about Golden State and Dallas. How about Miami and Dallas? Yeah, this is one, um, this is one too.
16:28
Heat at Mavericks t- here tonight. Heat still dealing with i- with, with this illness. I mean, multiple guys out sick last night. Now you're talking about a back-to-back situation.
16:35
We saw them kind of die in the fourth quarter there. So I, I mean, it would be Mavs or nothing.
16:40
It's gonna be a pass for me, although I w- I am considering, uh, going back to maybe looking at a Bam, uh, double double or something like that, uh- Take advantage of Dallas's deficiency down low. Correct, correct.
16:50
Absolutely. And Bam out of bio, like he still looked pretty good last night. Um, i- it's just, you know, you never know how this stuff spreads around the locker room.
16:56
We talked to Mike Pritchard, uh, before the Super Bowl, and he, kind of asked him about, you know, we were talking about Jalen Carter being sick, and kind of asked him, "Hey, do we, a- as bettors, do we make too big of a deal th- about this, or not, uh, not big enough of a deal when there's an illness going around a locker room?"
17:10
He's like, "Probably not big enough of a deal." It is- Hmm... teams exercise a ton of caution with trying to separate players, keep themselves away from each other. But you know, NBA locker room, it's smaller.
17:19
These guys are around each other more at shoot around and stuff like that. So, uh, it, it always concerns me. So it would be Mavericks or nothing for me tonight.
17:26
It would probably be nothing, but I will be looking at some Bam props. Yeah, obviously now all these teams in action tonight since the whole league played yesterday are working the second leg of a back-to-back.
17:36
Oklahoma City, one of the better teams in the league, six and four against the number- Mm-hmm... with no rest. Would you go back to the Thunder?
17:43
Yeah, so this is another cr- this is another crazy line movement game tonight. This opened Oklahoma City four and a half. Wow. We're out to seven and a half, eight on this game now. Uh, this one I am in on the total.
17:54
Opened up at 219 and a half. I bet the over in this game. I, the, don't get me wrong, these are two very good defensive teams in Oklahoma City and Minnesota, and Minnesota.
18:04
I mean, Oklahoma City is the number one, uh, rated defense in, in the league. But i- as, as long as we're getting Anthony Edwards and SGA playing tonight, I was shocked to see this number as low as it was.
18:14
It's gone up to about 222. You'll find 221 and a halves out there. I think it's still bettable, uh, over.
18:21
You're talking about since January 10, Oklahoma City first in offensive rating with 120 points scored per, uh, 100 possessions. Minnesota sixth in that time. Really not that far behind them.
18:30
Yes, they got good defenses, maybe not the best match-ups, if you wanna say that, for both of these teams from an offensive standpoint. But both these teams have been cruising to the over, too.
18:38
We talked about some of these trends yesterday, Joe. 14 of the last 18 for OKC have gone over. Uh, Minnesota, it's 12 of the last 18. So these guy- these teams are scoring points as is, uh, right now.
18:49
Last game, if anything, I'd expect to see t- you know, tired legs back to, and, uh, on the second half of back-to-back. Like you said, Joe, all these teams on a back-to-back tonight.
18:57
Uh, you got that, the All-Star break coming up. Defense might not be the top priority this evening. Kelly, I'm curious. When you're capping hoops- Mm-hmm...
19:03
and obviously you're more the NBA guy; I do a little more college. How much do you factor in revenge?
19:08
Does it, does it differ to you between college and the NBA, or do you think that there is something to be said for a revenge spot? Say you play a team two weeks ago, they beat you by 15. Yeah.
19:16
You're gonna look to back maybe the team that's coming off the loss? I think it's always a factor. I think it's b- a bigger factor in college basketball than it is in the NBA. Yeah.
19:23
But, um, you know, like we brought up that, that Chicago-Detroit trend the other day, right? And it's, yeah, that, like I, like those ones stick out to me.
19:30
When you've lost 17 of 20 against a team, I mean, that's going back years. Right. Some of those play- Like, you're Cade Cunningham in your third year.
19:37
That, you've thought about that for a few years now of this division team that you keep losing to. Gives you a little extra motivation, I would think. Now, obviously they split in Chicago these past two nights.
19:48
Uh, but yeah, when I see stuff like that, it, it definitely jumps out to me.
19:51
And yeah, well, I think when you get big teams like this OKC-Minnesota, we know they're two of the bigger teams, uh, in the Western, better teams in the Western Conference.
19:59
Yeah, stuff c- they remember from h- a playoff series and stuff like that carry over to the next year. I think be, just be a little careful with it.
20:06
I think they, stu- some of that stuff if you're, if you're doing revenge from the playoffs, you're looking at it beginning of the season a little bit more than later in the season.
20:13
Well, Kelly, the reason I ask is because we're looking at tonight's college hoops slate. Mm-hmm. And I had a couple games circled over in the Summit League.
20:20
The South Dakota Coyotes, I, I know you're a big South Dakota Coyotes fan. They're coming off a loss two weeks ago to University of Missouri-Kansas City. They lost by 15 at Kansas City in that game. Now they return home.
20:32
They're laying a point and a half on their home court, and to me this is a great spot to take South Dakota. One of the fastest teams in the country in terms of pace of play. They get up over 62 shots per game.
20:45
It's top 25 in the nation. And at nearly 86 points per game, it's the highest-scoring offense in the conference. Kansas City, about 12 points per game behind South Dakota, only about 74 per contest.
20:58
Now, these teams are polar opposite, right? South Dakota, really fast-paced. They get up shots in bunches in absolute total volume. Kansas City, much slower pace.
21:07
They'll get you on, on the, uh, on the glass, and they're much more of a defensive-oriented team.
21:13
But South Dakota's one five of seven, they've covered four of seven, and as home favorites, four two and one against the number. Kansas City's lost eight of their last nine outright.
21:24
The only win in the last nine was that win on their home court against South Dakota, so I love the revenge spot for the Coyotes here. No, yeah, look at that mascot, though.
21:32
How do you go up against that fighting kangaroo, man? Wow. The Kansas City Roos. I, I- That's what they call them, the Roos... honestly, I could not have told you that the Ka- there was a South Dakota Coyotes.
21:41
I know the Jackrabbits. Right. I know South Dakota State. And that's my other play. Oh, there we go. We're taking Omaha plus nine and a half against South Dakota State.
21:49
Look, South Dakota State, you know the Jackrabbits- Yeah... 'cause they're, they're, uh, a staple in March Madness, right? I mean, I don't think you're locked into the Summit League, Kelly. No, yeah, but they're feisty.
21:57
Right. They're feisty every now and then. I mean, who doesn't love a Jackrabbit logo? That's right. And they've always got that one white dude who's gonna hit like nine threes in March on the national stage. Only one?
22:05
Yeah, well, no, they've got quite a few. [laughs] Uh, but the thing with the South Dakota State team, the reason I'm taking Omaha, these Jackrabbits don't put up threes in volume the way that they do.
22:13
They've usually got one guy who can hit nine on any given night. As a team, they're only averaging nine made threes per game, just 13 made free throws. That's the low mark in the entire conference.
22:23
Omaha, one of the best ATS teams, forget in the Summit League, in the entire nation this year. They've also won 12 of 13. They're nine and three against the number over that span.
22:35
We'll dive more into the specifics with Omaha, but nine and a half, I love that number. Get to the counter now. More NBA with Zach Cohen after the break. He's Kelly Bidlin. I'm Joe Serallo. It's a Numbers Game.
22:45
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:57
Numbers Game continues here on VSiN with me, Joe Serallo, alongside Kelly Bidlin as usual, and I'm excited to take you folks to the progressive guest line here.
23:06
Welcoming VSiN Senior Editor, catch him on Twitter @bettingonx, our friend Zach Cohen, ahead of tonight's NBA slate. Zach, how you doing? Five games to get to. I'm excited to get your take on this Miami-Dallas contest.
23:20
Yeah, I, I'm looking forward to it. I'm also looking forward to the break. Uh, you know, some time away from it could be good. But I, I, I like the Heat tonight. I, it, it's really hard to play this slate.
23:28
Uh, as we were talking about off the air, there are not any injury reports up right now. We don't know who's going to be playing.
23:33
Pretty much every team played last night, so we're going to see, you know, a lot of injury reports that are filled with players that aren't going to be playing. Teams wanna take advantage of these extra weeks of rest.
23:42
So I, I do like Miami, though. I just think the Dallas center position i- is a mess right now. I know that they won last night. I actually gave them out to beat the Warriors, uh, on prime time.
23:51
But man, they have a guy named Kyler Kelly sitting on their bench right now. I'm not even sure if he's employed by the team.
23:56
[laughs] He's just, uh, kind of sitting there on the bench, and they, they just don't have a center right now. It's kind of Omax Prosper, uh, you know, a six-foot-seven wing playing some center.
24:05
Uh, Kessler Edwards doing the same. I, this Heat team, you know, with Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry are just gonna be a little bit too overwhelming for them around the basket.
24:14
And I know that they won last night against the Warriors, but that took Klay and Kyrie combining to shoot 12 for 24 from three So Zach, Kelly and I were actually talking about this earlier in the show.
24:23
How concerned are you when it comes to that illness that's reportedly going through Miami's locker room? You mentioned it. Obviously, it's so early in the day, there aren't any accurate injury reports out there yet.
24:35
Would that make you... I- if some notable names are on that illness injury report, would that make you lean more towards maybe Bam props going up against a depleted, uh, depleted group of guys down low for Dallas?
24:45
Or would you stay with the Heat? Yeah, so th- that really only impacted how big I'm going to be playing this game. Like, I think I would've put a two-unit play on Miami i- if not for- Oh, wow... the illnesses.
24:54
Uh, but they did have most of their important players last night. I think we're gonna see 'em again tonight. Those things can carry pretty fast throughout a locker room, so I'm a little bit nervous about that.
25:03
But I just really like the size advantage that the Heat have.
25:05
And it's, it's one thing, you know, if, if it's, you know, just two big guys like you have in Cleveland and, you know, maybe they're a little bit slower i- in the foot, but Bam could guard all those wings on Dallas, especially considering a lot of them can't really shoot.
25:16
So I just think it's a really interesting match-up, uh, and I do think that Spo is gonna figure out a way for them to get the job done. But I do think that, uh, Bam player props is something to consider.
25:24
I was looking into that myself. Yeah, I t- I think that's how I'm gonna be attacking this game tonight, Zach. I, I'm just gonna go l- leave this pretty open-ended.
25:30
W- any betting advice [laughs] for people on the final day before the All-Star break? We've seen, let's see, this Oklahoma City line move up about four points from where it opened.
25:40
We've seen this Rockets line move up about five and a half points from where it opened last night. Uh, just overall advice for people on the final day before the All-Star break.
25:49
I think my advice would be to take it easy. Uh, like, like these players themselves are looking forward to this break to get their bodies right. A lot of teams are holding players out.
25:56
I think you saw, you know, Damian Lillard sit out for the Bucks because they wanted to give him, you know, the full week or so to just kinda get his body right.
26:02
So these players are not treating these games the way that you're going to want to be treating them.
26:06
So I, I just don't want you to be, like, losing too much tonight and being mad at the teams when, you know, you should know them, that they themselves probably do not care as much.
26:14
Zach, how about a, a little parlay action? You've got a two-team money line you're looking at for this evening?
26:19
Yeah, I'm going with the Kings to beat the Pelicans again, and I'm also going with the Thunder to beat the Timberwolves.
26:24
I just think, you know, we've seen now that the Sacramento team is a little bit too much offensively for New Orleans.
26:30
You know, as constructed, I think that without Herb Jones, you're kind of missing a really important perimeter defender for DeMar DeRozan, who is now lighting it up for Sacramento.
26:38
I, I just think that the Kings are going to do, you know, th- their business tonight. I think this is a really good basketball team, honestly.
26:44
I mentioned it after the trade deadline that I see this being, you know, the same exact team it was. You know, with to Aaron Fox, I'm very high on the move that they made for Lavine.
26:52
I think that they did some nice moves to add, you know, Valanciunas to their bench, Jake LaRavia to the bench. And then for the Thunder against the Timberwolves, this is just a struggling Minnesota team right now.
27:01
Uh, they are lacking in firepower in a big way.
27:03
I know that people don't really like, you know, Julius Randle, but he brings something to the team, and I do think that it's going to be very difficult for them to create efficient offense against Oklahoma City's defense.
27:12
Hey, Zach, I, I don't know what stood out to you most from, from last night with every, every team in action. There was a lot that you could, you could choose from. I...
27:20
Jamal Murray scoring a career-high 55 points in a Denver win.
27:24
Uh, that stood out to me because I think that what, what some of my major concerns for Denver is, okay, this team lost pieces from what we've seen the past couple years ago.
27:32
I think that's gonna be tough to make up, and I thought Jamal Murray had been on the rapid decline over this season. Uh, y- any thoughts on Denver going forward? Did that catch your eye as much as it did m- mine?
27:43
Yeah, absolutely. Hon- honestly, he looked completely cooked in the first month of the season, and he has come back, storming back. It looks very, very healthy.
27:50
That performance definitely alleviated some concerns for Denver. Obviously, i- it's a team you still have to take very seriously.
27:56
Uh, you know, with Nikola Jokic [laughs] out there, they're always going to be a threat to win a playoff series. But the question was, does he have enough help?
28:02
And seeing Murray looking back like the guy that he was, you know, the last few seasons is definitely big.
28:07
Now you kind of look the rest of the season and hope, you know, that Aaron Gordon gets a little bit healthier, because if he does, then they are going to be a team, you know, to reckon with in the Western Conference.
28:14
I think that, you know, the Russell Westbrook move has paid off in a big way.
28:18
Honestly, seeing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope struggling the way he has in Orlando almost makes it look like that move was, you know, absolutely correct, letting him go out the door, bringing in Russ for cheaper.
28:26
So it's definitely a team to be monitoring the rest of the season, not just for Murray, though. I would say that Gordon, we need to see Gordon looking back to the player he was when they won the finals.
28:34
He's Zach Cohen with us on the Progressive Guest Line now. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at bettingonx. Zach, you look at Houston yesterday.
28:42
They were laying six and a half against Phoenix, down eight going into the fourth quarter, end up blowing the Suns out in that fourth quarter, winning by eight, the cover gets home.
28:50
Now they're taking on Golden State, laying that same number, six and a hook at the moment. This one, I believe, opened with Houston laying just a point. Does that tell you it looks like Steph is out?
29:01
It looks like Jimmy might not go. I mean, Jimmy Butler hasn't exactly been, uh, been playing a lot of back-to-backs this year. Would you be interested in getting in on a much younger Houston team in a back-to-back spot?
29:12
Yeah, so this is another one where I'd be looking, if you like Houston, t- take it in a parlay with the money line, maybe use it with the Thunder and just get a, a solid price for both teams, 'cause I do think Oklahoma City is a pretty safe play tonight.
29:23
I just wouldn't want to be laying six and a half only without seeing the injury reports, because if Steph does play, that is a lot of points.
29:30
We have seen, you know, that this Golden State team has been very competitive with Butler in the lineup, so that's my only concern there. But man, I, I, I do have concerns about Golden State moving forward.
29:39
I think a- after the deadline, I, I did not like the Jimmy trade for them.
29:43
I just think that there are too many players on that team that can't shoot the basketball, and when you bring Kuminga back into the mix, you're gonna be looking at Kuminga, Butler, Draymond Green on the court with Stephen Curry clogging things up, making things very difficult on him.
29:54
Yeah, uh, we, we were talking about it first segment, Zach, and I, I said I think there's a lot of these teams in the, especially the Western Conference, who's kind of bookmarked.
30:01
Don't forget, I know it's gonna be a week without basketball, but we got a lot of questions about, I mean, Warriors, Mavericks, Suns, Lakers, right, with different, different problems that they gotta recover from.
30:12
I, I wanna circle back. You brought up last week on the show, uh, being high on San Antonio. You kinda got me excited about it, too. Just thoughts after the past few games where they haven't really looked as impressive.
30:21
You still, uh, still digging some, uh, Spurs bets here? Yeah, I will say I do listen to the shows. I think that's been misconstrued a v- a bit as a pick for me to, for them to win the Western Conference.
30:31
That was a value grab for me, just because I do think that if the Spurs were to find a way in, they'd be as tough an out as anybody, because I do think that on paper, that team is at worst, you know, the third team in the Western Conference right now.
30:41
So I, I think that San Antonio's looking really good for the future.
30:45
I put it in 100 to one because I think that, you know, there's a slight chance they get into the play-in, make some noise in that play-in, and do end up with a playoff spot.
30:52
But they do have a lot of work to do in order to get to that point. That's why it's out there at 100 to one. But I do think that the Spurs' early returns have looked, you know, I guess, bad on defense.
31:01
I, I just do think a lot of that has to do with the coaching. I think that they're playing the wrong lineups. Uh, they need to put Stephon Castle in a little bit more over Chris Paul.
31:08
Zach, you know, I'm not really the biggest NBA bettor, but one thing I've had success doing the last two years is attacking the futures market at the All-Star break, because it's not the halfway point.
31:18
It's really more like the three-quarters way mark. And you can really assess, you, you get a good feel of who these teams are. You can really assess, I feel like, the win totals well when they take that break.
31:27
Do you have any futures either in pocket or that you're gonna add to your portfolio now as these teams take a little break and we reassess w- uh, down the home stretch here?
31:37
Yeah, I think I've mentioned it before, but I, I do like the Kings a lot moving forward. I'd be looking at end-season win total overs on them.
31:42
I just thought that moving Fox out, it looks a lot bigger on paper than it really was, because Malik Monk is such a good player that sliding into the point guard position and bringing in Zach LaVine, you know, a borderline All-Star himself, it's not that big of a downgrade in terms of talent.
31:56
And then they added pieces to the bench that are just so productive in Valanciunas and Laravia that I just think that the Sacramento team is being viewed as a team that kind of dumped, you know, a, a star, and that, you know, you...
32:06
That comes with the, you know, being labeled a seller. But I don't think that they got any worse. So I'd be looking at the Kings over on the win total.
32:13
Hey, Zach Gill's not here, so I gotta ask you, any tennis a- uh, in, uh, in action today for you? Yes. I have two players that I really like.
32:20
One of them is [laughs] Reilly Opelka money line against Brandon Nakashima in Delray Beach. Uh, you could, you should be able to find that at minus 125. Opelka has won this tournament before, has been a runner-up also.
32:31
Uh, Nakashima's a player that very much struggles with big, powerful servers.
32:35
Opelka might have the best serve on tour, so I think that this is going to be a very big, you know, power matchup, but it's one that favors Opelka in conditions that he really likes.
32:43
And then in Buenos Aires, I like Mariano Navone, plus one-and-a-half sets against Holger Rune.
32:49
Uh, these two played a very competitive match on clay in Madrid last year, and Navone is one of the best clay court players in the world.
32:56
Rune is viewed as one of the top 10 players in the world, but, you know, you have to factor in surfaces.
33:01
Last year, Navone had, I believe, the ninth-most wins on clay on tour, and I believe the third-highest break percentage on clay on the tour.
33:08
So I think he's going to be getting a lot of pressure on Rune's serve, and Rune, uh, was sick two weeks ago and had a, you know, pretty poor performance in Rotterdam, which is a t- a tournament that he usually plays well at.
33:19
VSiN's own Zach Cohen. Follow him on Twitter @bettingonx. Zach, really appreciate the time. Thanks so much, man. Thanks, guys.
33:25
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33:35
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34:00
With the Daytona 500 coming up this weekend, the NBA and NHL seasons in full swing, the PGA Tour underway, and March Madness, as well as the MLB season right around the corner, there is no shortage of action to wager on just 'cause football's over.
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34:40
I'm Joe Serallo alongside Kelly Bidlin, and getting ready to take you back to the progressive guest line with that Daytona 500 just days away.
34:49
Who better to break it down with than our friend Phil Bobbit, motorsports handicapper from over at CBS Sportsline. Make sure you follow him on Twitter at SpeedwaySteve2. Phil, how are you today?
35:00
Thanks for hopping on, man. Good morning, fellas. I am thrilled to be here. It's the start of NASCAR season. I'm excited. Let's get some winners in the, in the account. Yeah, we're getting- Let's go...
35:08
the season started and, you know, speaking of winners, not just this weekend, how about for the full season? You've got a couple futures to, uh, start us off with. We've got a couple plus money winners here.
35:18
We're, we're gonna go with Chase Briscoe over one-and-a-half wins. You can find that at BetRivers. Uh, we like Chase this year. It, it could be his breakout season.
35:25
He's upgrading into a JGR Toyota from a lame duck Stewart-Haas wagon. He won twice in that lesser equipment in the past years. Bad stuff. This is a big performance bump.
35:39
Martin Truex, who retired, was in that car last year. He won 16 times in six years in that car. We like Chase Briscoe over one-and-a-half wins. The next one we like is Shane van Gisbergen under one-and-a-half wins.
35:52
That's plus 112 over at BetRivers. This guy is irrelevant on the oval, so you can throw 30 races out the window. There are only six that matter to him. He's one of the best road course racers in the world.
36:04
The ovals are a different beast. He's just not ready. Um, we think he's gonna win one, but he won't win two. Phil, it's awesome having you back.
36:13
Just a reminder for everybody listening out there, if it's your first time catching Phil, he, uh, he, he reached out to us.
36:17
We brought him on before the first F1 Vegas, and I don't even know how many bets he gave out, Phil. I think the story I tell is you gave out, like, 12 and you hit 11 of them or something like that. It was insane.
36:26
So, uh, Phil Bob, it's always our go-to, uh, racing guy here on A Numbers Game. Um, so look, I need you to break this down. We got Daytona 500. We know it's huge this weekend. We have the...
36:35
We brought you on today though because we've got the Duels going tonight, right? This is gonna help set up the order for Sunday. Walk us through all that and then your bets for tonight. Sure.
36:44
Uh, qualifying was last night, and that set the front row. Uh, then these duels, there's two 60-lap, uh, races, they're like little sprints, and they'll set the qualifying order for three through 40.
36:56
So, uh, there's two of those races tonight. The first one, we like a little sprinkle on Austin Dillon at 22 to 1. The guy's an absolute knucklehead, um, so y- just so you know what you're getting into here.
37:08
[laughs] The price is probably right. But he did win the 2018 Daytona 500. He also won at Daytona in the spring of 2022. He's got RCR power under the hood.
37:18
They always bring good equipment to, to these super speedway tracks. 22 to 1, has some value, so sprinkle that. We like the duel two a little bit better, though. Uh, there's a lot of strong Fords in the field.
37:30
They should control the race. We will see a green flag pit stop, so, uh, the Chevys will be at a, a bit of a disadvantage.
37:37
They only have Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, Shane van Gisbergen, and Daniel Suarez in the field, so the Fords have a lot more numbers to work with, which is huge.
37:46
So we like Austin Cindric at 10 to 1 at Caesars, Chris Buescher 11 to 1 at DraftKings, Noah Gragson 25 to 1 at DraftKings. You can dutch those together in an equal manner and get plus 370 for, for the trio of those guys.
38:00
Those are all strong, strong Fords, and we'd like them to get it done tonight in duel number two. So Phil, you're talking to me about the strong Fords in this field.
38:08
I just learned yesterday for the first time that in golf you can bet on the top golfer of a certain country, a certain nationality. That was news to me. Now I'm learning you can bet on a, a top car based on manufacturer.
38:21
So you're talking about all these Fords. Do you have a play for the top Ford this weekend? Uh, I do. I do. Uh, the top Ford, we're going a little bit further down the board here, 16 to 1. We're taking Noah Gragson.
38:33
Um, we like Noah a lot, and we, we talked about him on a Numbers Game before. He's the kind of guy that if he wins, he's gonna climb the fence and, and just slam a beer. So he's our kind of guy.
38:43
Um, Noah is also stepping out of that Stewart-Haas, uh, wagon from last year, so it was kind of a, a middling car, into a Front Row Motorsports car, which is excellent at these super speedways.
38:55
Um, he has led at Daytona before, uh, last year. He led in Talladega as well last year. Um, he's, he's, he's a, a really, really good super speedway driver. Uh, he, he started 37th in 2022, finished ninth.
39:11
Uh, he started 38th last year. Um, oh, I'm sorry, and then he finished ninth. He finished third in, in, um, 2022. So we like Noah to, to get out front, um, lead the Fords. Maybe he gets it done.
39:23
He's also plus 240 for a top 10. Yeah, top 10, and the top Ford, uh, for Phil on that one. Phil, I'm just gonna let, I'm gonna tee you up on this one, man.
39:31
You got fi- uh, five outright bets it looks like for the Daytona 500. About plenty of other bets, top tens, match-ups, everything.
39:38
Uh, just talk us through your outright bets a- and anything else on the board you wanna hit on. Sure thing.
39:43
So the Daytona 500, um, I wish it was a, a lit- a little bit more predictable, but, you know, it's the first race of the year. Everybody's excited. You're probably gonna watch it with your buddies.
39:52
So we wanna get a portfolio of guys, that way you have somebody standing at the end, because there's inevitably a huge wreck. Somebody'll make a mistake and take out half the field.
40:01
So you gotta have lots of bullets in the gun. So we're gonna take Chase Elliott. There's a rogue 18 to 1 at BetMGM right now.
40:08
Uh, we're taking his teammate William Byron at 20 to 1 at FanDuel, Alex Bowman 35 to 1 at DraftKings.
40:15
Justin Haley, um, that's a, a, a name that you might not know, but he won a rain delayed, uh, speedway, super speedway race before, um, and he's 55 to 1 at DraftKings. And then we're also taking Front Row Motorsports.
40:28
That's a trio of Zane Smith, Todd Gilliland, and our guy Noah Gragson. You can dutch all those guys together and get plus 360.
40:35
That way you're g- at least gonna have somebody in the fight, um, because these super speedway races are just so hard to get a winner home. We think this is the best way to do it.
40:43
A little, little scatter shot for the outright winners. I like it. Now Phil, talk to us about positionals. You've got a plus money positional prop here.
40:51
How do you go about capping those, and what's your favorite one for the Daytona? All right. So our favorite one, and we, we like this a lot, it's Martin Truex under 19 and a half. So we need him to finish 19th or better.
41:03
It's plus 130 at Caesars. They, they hung this this morning, so it, it's a current number. Uh, but he's a retired guy. Uh, this is his first week of retirement, and he's spending it in a race car.
41:13
Um, so since the Next Gen car's introduction in 2022, uh, which is a new design of the car, he's finished inside the top 20 at Daytona four out of the six races.
41:23
Uh, when you include all the super speedway dates back to 2022, he's 12 for 18 inside the top 20. So a plus money price gives us a huge edge here. We've got him projected between 14 and 17.
41:36
Um, this car, it's racing under the TriCon Garage banner, which is a very, very small truck team, but it's a Toyota. He ra- raced with, uh, Joe Gibbs Racing in the past. This is a Joe Gibbs prepared car.
41:49
Those Toyotas look good. In a 40-car field, we like his experience. Give us Martin Truex under 19 and a half.
41:56
All right, Phil, I, I, I'm gonna talk to you through how I'm gonna bet Daytona, and you can tell me whether I'm an idiot or not, 'cause I do this every year now for like the past three years.
42:04
I just wait for like 100 laps to go by, a couple crashes occur, and then I just get involved live. I look for one of the bigger names, he's drifted back in the pack.
42:12
I can get a longer number on him, and maybe I'll add one or two of those and hope they survive to the end. But so many crashes that come into play here. I, I... Is this a better live betting event than most NASCAR races?
42:24
Yeah, it sure is. Um, i- in fact, like even the first 100 laps don't matter.
42:28
These guys are, are gonna be f- saving fuel for the majority of it, so it's gonna look cool on TV, but they're not going full out until very late in, in the, the race here. So that brings us to another prop.
42:39
I like the lap 190 leader to win the race, yes, plus 400 at Caesars. This'll make sure you have a dog in the fight, Kelly. Um, and the way this new car is designed, passing is incredibly difficult.
42:51
It's hard to get momentum going to complete a pass. When they get strung out single file, they, they can't build the momentum. So, um, this is, this race is normally won from the front row late.
43:02
Give us the lap 190 leader, plus 400, yes. Okay. Phil, before we let you go, final 45 seconds or a minute here.
43:09
Kelly just mentioned, you know, that this race has a lot of crashes usually, and that there's some big cluster. I- is that a market that you can get in on? Is there an over under set on crashes in this?
43:17
Joe just wants to s- yeah... I mean, I'm not a NASCAR guy. I'm waiting for someone to turn right. He just wants to bet the yeah, uh, the over yes on the crashes. Yeah. Is, is there a market for that?
43:25
'Cause I went to one race in my life, and the Clash at the Coliseum, there must have been over 10 crashes, no exaggeration, in that race. Uh, there is. That's not a, a, a market that we cap in NASCAR.
43:34
It's one that we cap in, uh, F1, so you'll have to have us back for the, uh, the, the crash market. If it, if there was, it would be minus 8,000, yes- [laughs]... for, for this race. It's, it's gonna happen.
43:46
I got two more quick ones I wanna get out before we go. Yeah, yeah. Please do. Uh, in a matchup over at Caesars, we're gonna take Ford over Chevrolet, because this is a numbers game, Kelly.
43:55
Uh, we've got five Fords projected in our top seven. Uh, so that's just, uh, there's just so many of them, we think they're gonna beat Chevrolet, so Ford over Chevy minus 105 at Caesars.
44:05
We also like William Byron over Brad Keselowski. In these matchup bets, we like cruisers, not bruisers, and Brad Keselowski normally has his snowplow on the front bumper in these super speedway races.
44:16
We like William Byron to get it done minus 110 at ESPN. Great stuff from our guy Phil Bobb, and check his work out over at CBS Sports Line, @SpeedwaySteve2 on Twitter. Phil, thanks for the time.
44:28
When we come back, we'll look at some NFL next team odds. It's a Numbers Game with Kelly Bedell and Joe Seralla. [upbeat music]
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