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Feb 13, 2026
A Numbers Game | February 13, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | February 13, 2026 | Hour 3
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46:09
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:12
The Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:15
It's your channel 158, YouTube TV, our very own VSiN Watchout, terrestrial stations across this great country of ours as we sit in here and make up the rules as we go because that's what we're allowed to do.
0:25
That's right. So we've decided that we're gonna go ahead and do... Because the, the golf draft yesterday didn't, didn't work out because we didn't take- It was a great idea.
0:34
We made- We maybe didn't figure out exactly how we were gonna grade stuff. That's the thing. And so I would hate to make you buy me a very expensive drink when we didn't really identify the rules.
0:43
Now, I did have the highest finisher of the people in the draft yesterday. Right. But he did not win the first round leader. And specifically not... A- and he didn't win first round leader on the course- Yeah...
0:55
'cause there's two different courses. So, i- i- good idea. So we'll just void that one out. Good idea. Hey, we at least got a couple of our guys finished like- Yes... top five, top 10 first round. Yeah.
1:03
So maybe some people tailed some of those out there. So we, uh, we will, we will just void that one out. But this one cannot be voided because there are only eight participants, and we're gonna go four a piece.
1:12
So I'm gonna lead things off here, and if you don't know where I'm going, then you didn't listen last time. I'm picking Damian Lillard. Pretty jealous. The guy's been sitting at home.
1:20
He could probably win this thing left-handed if he wanted to. That's all he's been doing. He's just been shooting. He was shooting in a wheelchair.
1:26
He could probably at least finish in the top three of this thing from a wheelchair. He probably could. I, I, I do. I do. But I think they're gonna let him stand up, and I think he's gonna shoot well.
1:35
[laughs] And so I'm going Damian Lillard. I just, I can't get past that thought.
1:39
Like, yeah, yes, you can say this guy is not in basketball shape, has not been playing with a team, uh, all that stuff, but, like, I know he's got a mansion in Portland with a basketball court probably- Good...
1:49
in it that he's just been- I said it already... sitting there shooting. I've seen these guys go gain 40 pounds whenever they retire, and then they'll just show them out on a court, and then the shot just still goes up.
1:59
Like, yeah, they probably couldn't juke you anymore. Right. They probably couldn't get to the hole on you. But if you just leave them standing there at the three-point line, they can still just drain them all day long.
2:08
Okay. I've got one, one I know that I will be betting. And y- yeah, I bet this almost every year. I usually pick two guys, have a little fun with it. Um, Tyrese Maxey I will be taking. Okay. He will be a
2:20
guy I would definitely be betting. And then I'm kind of deciding between a couple others. Uh, again, over 40% on wide open looks this year from three, uh, making the most of anybody in the field per game.
2:31
Uh, and then I will go... Man, you know what? I'll ride the vibes of a good season for Jamal Murray. I will go Jamal Murray with my second pick. All right.
2:40
Well, then I'm just gonna go, I'll go Con and then Donovan Mitchell. Yeah. Um, I think, one, just because I just love watching Con shoot the ball. I like your team better already. I just love watching Con shoot the ball.
2:53
Like, he sh- I l- he... It is such a pure shot. Mm-hmm. I just love watching him shoot the ball. And then I'll take, uh, I'll take Donovan Mitchell as a guy that I believe,
3:02
if you look at the guys that I had remaining, I would take... I, I like him over B- Here's the problem. I'm gonna end up with Portis. I was gonna say, I think, uh, Danny could just fill out the rest. Yeah.
3:09
[laughs] Yeah, so, so I'm gonna end up with Portis. So I can go ahead and just circle him. Listen, Bobby was in this last year too, right? Like, that- Yeah, yeah. That is... Oh, we- So- We'll get three.
3:19
No, we gotta do all four 'cause we gotta have a winner. It's okay. We can b- we can put- Yeah... those on the graphic, Danny. Yeah. It's okay. We'll leave out the last couple.
3:25
Uh, we'll just leave out the, the guys that we will definitely not be betting. Uh, but we- Yeah, so you're, you're, you're taking Booker, Powell. I'm taking, I'm taking Booker, Powell. I would rather bet...
3:36
You know what? I'm gonna say I think Booker's got a better chance contending in this. I don't think it's by much though, and I actually think those odds are a little disrespectful for Norman Powell. So I...
3:45
If you're the guy that's gonna string- Mm-hmm... like, if you're spreading out three bets in this- Yeah... I, I don't mind including Norman Powell at 10 to 1 or nine, plus 950. It- It's a little wild to me.
3:54
We're getting a bonus here of him being the least sexy name outside of Bobby Portis. Is that what it is? Yes. That's what it is. Look at... 'Cause look. Look at... They're all- Yeah...
4:02
the odds are all jumbled up until you get to Norman Powell, and, like, the, the casual bettor goes, "I don't even know who Norman P- Norman Powell is." You know what? Thanks, Matt. Good call. You're right. My...
4:10
No, like, my NBA brain is too locked into the NBA all the time. Yeah. Yeah, you're right. That's what it is. He's... And so that actually is probably, that actually is probably value. If we were trying to- Yeah...
4:18
identify value. Because, like, e- e- even if you wanted to say he belongs below all the o- then it would be 750. Mm-hmm. It wouldn't be 10 to 1. Mm-hmm. What I'll be doing, so just from... No, you're absolutely right.
4:31
Uh, what I will be doing is betting Maxey and then one of Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, or Do- or Norman Powell. I, I mean, look- Mm-hmm... if this... Especially if this number keeps drifting all weekend, right? Yeah.
4:42
I mean, if this get... If this is double digits, I don't really know how I'm not looking at Norman. So there it is. We, uh, we've done our draft. And there will be a winner.
4:49
We will come in here, and we'll grade this puppy on Monday. And this will be for the expensive drink. That's right. Get that figured out. So I have, uh, we all have rooting interest at this point.
4:59
Let us know which team you like better. It's gonna be mine, but it's okay. L- let me know which team that you like better. Yeah, I like your team better already. [laughs] You can't... No, no, no, don't emotional hedge.
5:09
D- don't, don't emotional hedge. No, no, no, no, I, no, it's okay. I went with my guys. Yeah. Probably should've gone with Con over Jamal Murray, but yeah, whatever. You're emotional hedging. Don't do it. It's fine.
5:19
Big stage for Con Knipple. I don't know if he can handle it. Rookie, bright lights. [laughs] All-Star game atmosphere. Okay. Let's head to these, um, these markets out here and the awards for the NBA.
5:32
Now, as of [laughs] from yesterday to today, because again we have yet another game in which SGA doesn't play, and why not? Cade Cunningham- Ooh... falls to 14 to 1 now. Okay. So the, the...
5:45
A little bit more juice, a little bit more juice on, uh, Cade Cunningham here for MVP as people, I think, look around and go, "Well, SGA's not playing.
5:55
And Jokic, we think he'll qualify, but there's at least a, there's at least a chance- That if something else comes up that he might not qualify?
6:03
Cade Cunningham's gonna qualify Well, he's the best player on the team- Mm... with the least amount of losses right now- Mm... in the NBA. So, yeah, like- Yeah... you were talking about earlier.
6:13
As much as we talked about the, uh, the Thunder all season long, 42 and 14 is their record. The Detroit Pistons are 40 and 13. Uh, it's... So that's where we're at. Best win percentage, uh, right now.
6:24
He's the best player on that team. I get that. I think some of the just even baseball card numbers, right, advanced stats, I don't, I don't know if he's gonna get there.
6:33
I don't know that, ooh, would I put him above Luka? Because he's jumped Luka. Yes, I would. That's part- partially due to Luka Dončić injury. And you see the number drifted on Jaylen Brown since yesterday. Yeah.
6:44
It was 30, it was 35 to one. It's 40 to one today. Yeah, yeah. That's a little interesting, too. Mm-hmm.
6:50
Um, the one I will say about Luka, though, and I've said this, I, I've said this, man, it feels like for two or three months, Matt, it's not a bet for me, but it's because of my lack of belief in where the Lakers end up finishing in the standings.
7:01
I just don't know that you can go make a great case, uh, for Luka if he's on a six seed in the Western Conference or something like that.
7:09
But if you are a b- b- bigger believer in this Lakers team down the stretch than I am, I don't think 20 to one on Luka is a terrible bet.
7:17
I think at a certain point, we talked a little bit about this the other day, Jokić, i- I've got bets already on Jokić, man, I hope he gets there. I hope he's able to play this number of games.
7:26
I think it's too fine a line still.
7:28
Now, at a certain point, we're gonna h- we're gonna hit a point in the season, you know, a few weeks from now, where, okay, if he's still got a couple games free, I th- I'll probably be changing what I'm saying.
7:37
I don't know that you can go in and bet on, on that now. I think what's really curious here, Matt, is there a point
7:44
before Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returns that this number, uh, comes back far enough to the pack that that becomes the bet again all of a sudden? It, probably, but it's not there yet for me. It's not there yet.
7:57
But, but let's say he misses a week more of games. So not just, okay, obviously we're in a dead period now. Mm-hmm. You're missing that. You get the, out of All-Star week and he misses four or five games.
8:07
This number's... His number hits minus 125 with him back on the court. Are you going in on SGA? I would like it to be a little bit closer to even money. Okay.
8:15
Because now you start to, like you said, I mean, there is buffer, but you are starting to, to get into the danger zone there a little bit. You are.
8:23
You are, and it will depend, obviously, if Jokić had missed any games there- Mm-hmm... th- then, but I, I think this is still, I think we're gonna get excited about some of the other names.
8:32
I think this is a two-horse race with, with SGA and Jokić. Mm-hmm. And that's only if Jokić plays, he, i- if he's able to get over the, the hump.
8:39
So I'll, I'm just throwing out there, I, I, like, for me personally, all I ha- I do have a long, silly, stupid 100 to one Cade Cunningham ticket. I'm heavily loaded on Jokić for more than season at five to one.
8:51
If I see that kind of drift with SGA, I will be in on him. And I just want to point out, I don't think it's just- Yeah... from a hedging standpoint. I actually think it's a good bet if you're get...
8:59
If he hasn't hit the court yet again and it's down around even money, I think that becomes a pretty good bet. Coach of the Year is four deep under 10 to one.
9:08
We get Charles Lee at 15 to one, and then everybody else 20 or longer. Do you believe that JB Bickerstaff is your favorite? Eh, s- yeah, okay, yes. Okay. I believe he should be the favorite.
9:20
I made a bet on Jordan Knight last week. Okay. And it's right around this same number. And a lot of this is...
9:27
I, I just don't think there should be that big a separation between where Bickerstaff is at and where Knight is at.
9:32
I, now, look, the, the more that, like we just talked about, what happens in the standings, the more of that that occurs, and if Detroit continues to, you know, from here on out, has the best record in the NBA, yes, I think he's winning it.
9:44
It's probably not e- it becomes not even a discussion, right? If the Thunder catch back up, okay, this Detroit team slips it all.
9:51
Just preseason expectations, I don't really know what we're ta- what we're talking about here with Jordan Knight being this far back. Preseason win total on this Suns team was 30 and a half. 30 and a half games.
10:02
Kevin Durant leaves town. All the major changes with this roster and what you expect. This was not a team... Look, the win total was so low I had no interest in going under on them, Matt, right? Mm-hmm.
10:12
Like, it was, it was that b- it was a team that I really didn't think was gonna be a factor at all in the Western Conference. They're a seven seed right now, could easily play their way out of that play-in s- position.
10:23
I think Jordan Knight should be getting a lot of love for a team that I didn't expect to be in, uh, remotely sniffing a playoff opportunity at all this year.
10:30
I'm a little shocked he's that much further back from Bickerstaff. I... Missoula's great every year. Like, Mitch, I don't think Mitch Johnson, I don't think he really stands a chance. Mm-hmm.
10:39
Wembanyama gets all the credit there, right? Yeah. Wembanyama and this, and then what you've done with this roster gets all the credit. Charles Lee probably should be more in the conversation.
10:47
I know I've got a lot of tweets about this. He probably should be more in the conversation, but they just started too far back. Too many losses too early.
10:54
I think where they end up in the standings is gonna hurt him, and I don't think he's really in the race. I think Missoula probably is, Matt, but- In the last 40 seconds, let me give you one scenario.
11:04
I don't think it's gonna happen, but what if the Spurs overtake the Thunder in the West? Yeah. The standings always do matter with this.
11:12
So yes, it was, he's, he's, he's at least live back in the conversation if that occurs. 'Cause, uh, I mean, again, don't think it's gonna happen. They are only three games back right now.
11:20
I still think, though, okay, if we're talking about situation end of season, it's Spurs with the one seed and Detroit with the one seed, I think Bickerstaff still wins the award. Okay. Yeah.
11:28
Just wanted to put that out there. I mean, I, I mean, it, that, that's where the Wembanyama, [exhales] MB- Wembanyama MVP conversation, I think, comes back into play. Right. Not just Defensive Player of the Year, MVP.
11:39
Let's get into some baseball betting conversation. Just how do you go about it? What's the strategy, and how has it changed over the years? [upbeat music] You're here because you want an edge.
11:54
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12:03
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12:27
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game here on VSiN. Matt Kelly. What's up?
12:37
News coming through here, Toronto Raptors have waived Chris Paul, and- What was your favorite moment from the Chris Paul, uh, Toronto- I was just about to say, I'm going to bet that 98% of you listening and/or watching right now had no idea that Chris Paul was even on the Toronto Raptors.
12:51
Yeah, probably not. And so they have, they have waived Chris Paul.
12:54
He will have his pick of where he wants to go here, Kelly, and it's just, it, it feels like this is gonna be a sad ending to a, a really storied and awesome career.
13:06
But man, it's just- Yeah, you and I were talking off air-... it got bad. But I- I'm not gonna say hang it up. I'm never gonna say hang it up to anybody. No, no, no, no.
13:14
The guy m- the guy clearly loves playing basketball this much. Mm. And I respect the hell out... Whatever you do in life, if you can love something this much, that is awesome.
13:25
Having said that, Matt, if I was in his shoes, I probably would've hung 'em up about eight years ago and been enjoying all of that money that's in that bank account. Just living on a banana boat.
13:32
Just living on a banana boat. Yeah. Island, island in the Caribbean, yeah, yeah, just have someone just dri- On a banana boat...
13:38
just driving me along on a banana- You're just go- yeah, you're just going, you're just going from island on a banana boat. To Aruba. Yeah. [laughs] And you're just on the banana boat the whole time.
13:44
That would just be me. Yeah. Can you do that one-handed? You can do that one-handed, right? 'Cause I need, like, a, I need some kind of beverage. Yes, a beverage in the other. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yes, absolutely.
13:51
Need a margarita or something in that. You would just, you would, y- you know, you s- if you saw a crazy wave coming, maybe you're just batting down the hatches a little bit or whatever.
13:58
[laughs] But outside of that, yeah, you can one-hand a banana boat, I'm pretty sure. The, uh, real- I mean, I'm just trying to think of teams, right? Like, okay, if we have... I don't know, you say it could end sad.
14:09
I think it could end kind of cool, too. Like, there are teams that he's been on. I, I mean, not long ago, we're talking about Chris Paul having to have played every single game of the season for the- Mm...
14:20
San Antonio Spurs. And now, yes, they have added young guys in that back court.
14:24
Could he still not be used as a leader on that team, and someone that those guys are used to, to just have around, even if he's not seeing the court all that often? I think that's a possibility.
14:34
Could we definitely rule out [laughs] some type of- Here's what, what, w- here, here's where, this, here's where this gets sad, is if he really still wants to play a lot. Right.
14:42
And then so he just goes to some mediocre, like, slash bad team. I agree with that. I agree with that. And then it's just, like, old guy out there running around, doing pointless things and all that.
14:52
Like, that's where it could get kind of sad. But if you can in- if you can get into the, the Udonis Haslem, Jeff Green role of like, "Hey, I'm still technically on the roster- Mm-hmm... but I'm basically- Yeah...
15:01
an assistant coach," I think it'd be ki- I mean, even, like, OKC, right? Like, a team that he's been on. Mm. Like, yeah, you know, just a lot of young guards flying around out there.
15:09
That is a guy that could, I think, make an impact from that side of things. Yeah, it's, but it's a... It, it's definitely one of those things where I hope that he has in mind that playing time is gonna be sparse,
15:22
and I'm doing this because, like, I still enjoy the game, I still wanna be around the game, but I am more of almost, like, coach on the sideline- Yeah...
15:30
to the younger guys type thing than I need, I need 25 minutes a game. You know, like, like, come on, man. No, you don't. Now I'm trying to think, like, like, the Heat? The Heat?
15:41
Like, they, they, they've always been a team that have, they, they appreciated that Udonis Haslem role in, like- Mm... their back court. I mean, if Tyler Herro's gonna continue to get hurt here,
15:50
he might actually be able to get a few minutes a game there. Okay. Maybe we'll think about this over the weekend- Maybe I am... and come back with, like, best landing spot.
15:56
No, this, no, this is just me, like, me keep loving the NBA too much. Like, nobody cares. He's not gonna make that big of an impact. Well, depth is depth, right? Depth is depth. Depth is depth. There's no doubt about it.
16:07
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16:18
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16:28
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16:38
You can start for as little as 9.99 at vsin.com/subscribe. Okay, Kelly, it is... We've talked about some of these divisions and what we think's gonna happen there. My, some of my win totals.
16:52
Had Rosenberg join us, Joe Sheehan's joined us. We're getting all kinds of baseball stuff going on, but we haven't really talked about just the, the nuts and bolts of betting when it comes to- Yes...
16:59
to baseball, and it has changed over kind of the last five years, in my opinion. Mainly because of, and, and we like, we like advanced stats, and we like analytics, and we all, we like all that.
17:10
But it has been to the detriment of the starting pitcher in Major League Baseball because there is all this data out there that unless you're the, the elite of the elite, the third time through the lineup,
17:23
these guys wanna get you out of there now. Mm-hmm. And so handicapping games now, where we used to think, "You know what?
17:30
We can get six, get six or seven out of this guy," and after we get six or seven, "Okay, let's look what the setup man in the, in the bullpen and, and the closer looks like." You know, four and, four and two-thirds,
17:44
five flat, five and a third, like, these are all very, very common stat lines for all, the majority of the pitchers in Major League Baseball now. And so we have to
17:54
move kind of away from the full game lines a lot more, I know I have, into first five bets. They allow... The other thing the, the books have done, which is, uh, what, you can do s- s- first seven inning bets too.
18:05
Mm-hmm. As opposed to, like, going the whole game. Well, I've seen first three- Yeah... first five, first seven, yeah. So you can handicap each game individually.
18:11
Now it is more work, but I mean, you can, you can handicap each game individually as to, okay, what is a realistic time that I think this pitcher's going to pitch in this game?
18:20
I like him up until a certain point, so my bet is this as opposed to that. Mm. Or my bet, I, could be extended up to here, but I don't wanna go further than that and get to here.
18:29
So- They do allow us different angles to attack these games, but I think that's the first and, first and foremost that I would tell people that are just getting into baseball betting.
18:37
Understand that the, just the full game money line bet has changed drastically- Right... from what we know in the past because now you're only getting
18:47
five innings from a starter, and you're going to bullpens pretty early, and you better know how taxed is that bullpen, how good is the middle relief, what do you think about the closer situation?
18:57
Is that guy even available that day because he might be overworked, and all of that. So all of that gets handicapped a whole lot more now.
19:03
Yeah, and if, if, if anybody out there listening just kind of wondering why we're gotten on this topic, we kind of brought it up yesterday, and this was...
19:08
And I'm gonna a- ask m- Matt some questions just kind of from my standpoint, too.
19:12
I think it will apply to a lot of people out there, where i- if you're betting as regularly as we are, I, I, I recommend at least to kind of picking some sports that you're gonna kinda, uh, be experts and try to use your expertise in and kind of lean into the most, spend the most amount of your time.
19:27
And baseball was a sport that I was handicapping on a daily basis 15 years ago and was betting. Mm. And it was one of those that, okay, as I kind of expanded sports that I was betting, I didn't have as much time for.
19:37
It was getting way more into the NBA. NBA had been doing for a long time now, and baseball kind of fell by the wayside. Mm. And like you ta- just said, it has ch- I have seen it change massively- Mm...
19:46
how people handicap the sport, how they break it down, uh, the, the stats that you'll lean into that we'll hear Adam Berk lean into, that we'll hear Gil bring up all the time. All this stuff has changed a lot.
19:56
So really, we thought we'd have kind of more of a step back conversation about really how it's changed, what Matt considers important.
20:02
And I'm gonna let you go here, but there's a couple, like you just hit off r- right off the bat.
20:05
So feel like back in the day, it was way more, and Gil will say this a lot, it's kind of the, it's the individual sport disguised as a team sport. Yeah. And that was heavily how I used to handicap it back in the day.
20:15
Starting pitchers, I am looking for starting, quality starting pitchers in good spots with good lines that I'm getting on those guys, and that's usually where I'm starting my handicapping.
20:24
So based off of what you just said, we... I, I mean, I think the sport, I'm not gonna say the s- starting pitcher doesn't ma- uh, starting pitching doesn't matter as much in the sport. Yeah.
20:31
But from a handicapping standpoint, does it not matter as much as it once did- Yes... and bullpens and closers are mattering more now? Well, it certainly doesn't in full game betting, right?
20:41
Because again, like I said, I mean, we've gotten to a point where the vast majority of starters are just not going past six innings anymore, and a lot of them don't even get to six innings. Right. Right?
20:49
Like, if you, if any of you play in a, in a fantasy sports league that, that is quality starts, like, you understand how hard it is to get a quality start these days.
20:56
Which by the way, if you don't know what a quality start is, you have to go at least six innings with three or fewer earned runs, and they're hard to come by- Mm...
21:03
because people just don't go six innings anymore, you know? So, so, so real quick, and even if- Yeah... e- even I could even in theory approach betting it the same way in handicapping, starting with starting pitching.
21:11
I'm sure everybody starts- Mm-hmm... with starting pitching still anyways. But if I wanted to lean heavily into that, what's changed is now I have way more places offering those markets- Yes...
21:19
that maybe it's just better for me to bet the first fives and stuff like that. Remove the unknown. Remove the unknown. The, the unknown at that point is how long are they gonna leave him in? Mm. Only even if...
21:30
'Cause the other thing is, is we see- Which makes baseball different than any other sport, yeah... yes, we see guys cruising, we see guys cruising all the time, and managers are just different.
21:39
And some managers will pull a guy, it doesn't even matter if he's only thrown 70 pitches. Mm-hmm. But you get to, like, six innings, especially these younger dudes, you're out. Like, they are pulling you, you know?
21:49
And so there's definitely that. The other thing, too, is you go in and handicap these, these lineups according to
21:57
the pitcher that they're going up against, which is another really good way to kind of attack, like, reverse engineer what you're talking about. Sure.
22:03
Like, yes, you always start with starting pitching, but there are lineups that are lefty heavy, that, that just- Yeah...
22:09
that, that hit righties much better, or vice versa, that just hit lefties so, so, so much better, right? Oh, okay, real quick. Yeah. So back in the day, that would've been a thing still, right? Mm-hmm.
22:17
Righty, lefty splits, how are you doing against those? Now, have we evolved more beyond that even, or, or is it, are you looking for p- p- uh, specific...
22:25
Okay, maybe you're getting the righty, lefty matchups that you like, a- a- and, you know, the, a lot of left-handed batters that can hit the right, hit the right-handed pitchers well.
22:32
But even, is it, is it types of pitches even that you're getting into these days, or not really? That's more when it comes to if I'm, if I'm, if I'm doing props on a pitcher. Ah.
22:41
So if I'm doing props on a pitcher, right? Yeah. There are teams that, you know, and again, the, because baseball stats have gotten so granular. Right, right. This is why I bring it up, yeah.
22:50
They struggle against sliders. Mm-hmm. They struggle against high below starters and all this different stuff like that.
22:54
And, like, that's where you can go in and, and attack, like, some of the strikeout props and things- Makes sense...
22:58
for some, for some of these guys because these lineups just don't hit X as well, and, and he excels in that certain area and all of that. So, um, lots to talk about that. We'll- Let's keep going on the other side...
23:08
we'll, we'll get some more in that- Yeah... and certainly in the next week as well. But some more questions here on the other side about Major League Baseball betting.
23:13
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:34
Numbers game here on VSiN continuing on here with the Major League Baseball discussion. Though we are going over there, Pebble Beach. We see that, uh, these guys are- Oh, no, do I wanna look?... are rock and rolling.
23:46
Actually, I haven't... I didn't look at the, I didn't look at the scores. I don't know if anything bad has happened yet. Well, we got, we got into a great baseball conversation. Hopefully.
23:53
Some people out there appreciate some of that. Has anybody done anything horrible yet? Jorge Botia, one under up to eight. Oh, all right. Old Rickie Fowler, one under. Rickie, one under. Danny McCarthy, one under.
24:05
Eh, nothing else too notable. A whole bunch of evens. Let's see, Jason Days, one over. Yeah, he was, uh, he... Did, you weren't on him at all, right? Oh, no. He, he, yeah, he was popular this week.
24:15
Lucas Glover, one over. You can't do this because it's an individual sport and that's way too easy to, uh, to do bad when you're, when, when it looks like you're trying to do good.
24:29
But was there a more obvious dead last than Brian Campbell in this tournament? Like, you can't bet dead last because, like- [laughs]... you know, again, it, golf's hard enough as it is. Oh, man.
24:38
It's way too easy to throw it. Yeah, yeah. What, was there, was there a more obvious dead last than Brian Campbell in this tournament? Ooh, let me, uh, let's see what the... Let's see what Kelly's, uh, model said.
24:49
Ah, Kelly's model says no, he is not last. Last, it was Joe Highsmith. Mm. Mine was Campbell. Highsmith was second though. Second to last.
24:58
Yeah, you know how often we say, like, you know, if, if Scheffler's not number one, you're probably doing it wrong? Where, where, why is Campbell [laughs] not in like the bottom 10 of lines?
25:07
But I can tell you this, my model is pretty good as, as, as to guys at the bottom though. Um, Campbell, Rai, Potgeiter, Highsmith. Yeah, Potgeiter probably should've been a, a fade, uh- Yeah... for us this week.
25:20
All of those guys were at the bottom of my model, and they're all at the bottom of the leaderboard right now. They're guaranteed four rounds though, so they're not going anywhere.
25:27
You know what I don't- By the way, another birdie for Rickie Fowler. Let's go. Rickie Fowler. Let's go, Rick. They let- He likes to call himself Rick these days, 'cause he's a grown man. T-5. He's a man, he's 40.
25:36
He's almost 40. T-5, two under, eight under for the tournament. Let's go. Let's go, Rickie Fowler. Okay, actually, no, I lied to you before by the way. Mm-hmm. I did not actually have my model pulled up.
25:49
The, uh, bottom would be [laughs] still Joe Highsmith. Joe Highsmith, Potgeiter, Marco Penge- Mm... and then Campbell and Steven Fisk. Penge also down at the bottom, so your model was correct on that too, on him as well.
26:05
Yeah. We'll see how it all plays out. It's not, it's not the best course for him. Man, I am tell- I'm telling you though, like I... If we... I mean, Scheffler did what he did last week.
26:11
I'm not gonna freak out about Scheffler. But yeah, Ludvig, oy. Oh, boy. This has not been a good-looking start for Ludvig Aberg. So I mean, we should go ahead and we, we can hit that real quick here, but
26:25
we, we, we say on the podcast sometimes about dudes that we're gonna hold off on betting. I'm gonna ho- I will not be betting, I will not be betting Ludvig anytime soon.
26:35
W- well, and, you know, the most obvious places that we probably would've been excited to were the past couple weeks anyways. Uh, not really Pebble that you really, really been looking at him, right? I don't know...
26:44
Well, I guess next week you w- y- it could be a good course for him. But I'm with you, it's a, it's a wait and see with him right now. It, it, it just seems like something,
26:53
just seems like something's been off with him for, for a hot minute now. Mm-hmm. And I don't want to, uh, I don't want to go along with the ri- on the ride.
27:00
He doesn't win often enough for me to go along on the ride with him for that. Mm-hmm. So no good there on him. Yeah, I got, I got one home with him early last year, which was nice. Mm.
27:08
But yeah, it's been, it's been a struggle for a while now here.
27:11
So the other thing, I guess, like, so w- we're kind of into that as we were going into the break, is the other thing that I bet, I mean, maybe even more than anything else, is just, is like pitcher props, you know?
27:22
And so going in, looking at a pitcher versus a lineup, seeing what the strikeout total is, seeing what the total outs total is, and things like that, and then going in and deciphering, "Is this too low or is this, or is this, or is this too high?"
27:38
Mm. And, and so you go in and it's not an automatic that every time Paul Skeens takes the hill that he's gonna go over his strikeout total, because obviously they adjust it so high with whatever.
27:48
But the, where you find kind of a decent amount of edge is, in my personal opinion, is the super middling numbers of strikeouts on dudes, the four and a halves and five and a halves that are put out there.
28:01
Because that's where you can really dig in and be like, "Oh, okay. He actually does have an advantage here because he throws this a lot. This team struggles against this a lot.
28:10
They don't have a really good platoon advantage against him."
28:13
There's very likely to be an outcome where he gets to the requisite number of outs that you would need to make it a, a positive EV bet for, for strikeouts and things and stuff like that.
28:22
And so, uh, that's where I think the, the handicapping really does get kind of fun for me. Mm-hmm. Like, you know, like, like we weirdly geek out on stuff that a lot of people f- would find tedious and horrific- Sure.
28:36
Yeah, yeah... or whatever. So, but like, yeah. But, but that's where I kind of geek out on that, is like you find a dude who you think is... I mean, he's an all right enough pitcher.
28:43
He's not outstanding and he's not terrible. Right. He's got the middling number attached to him, and then it's like, "Okay, let's go and look at this lineup. What do they do well? What do they do poorly?
28:53
How has he looked the last few starts? Is he kind of rocking and rolling right now?" And then you kind of like make your bets accordingly to that. And you're going off a lot of it, just like we are with golf- Mm-hmm...
29:02
just like you are in a lot of sports, recent form with like a starting pitcher, right? Yeah. Especially what has he looked like those past three, four starts. And, and we'll have, uh, we'll have Spore on, uh, next week.
29:11
Yeah, we've got him on Monday. And we'll talk to him over at FanGraphs. But you'll hear me reference like FanGraphs a lot, Baseball-Reference a lot, going in, looking at, at, at advanced stats and things.
29:21
Because the reason we look at advanced stats is most of the stats that we talk about in baseball are stats that have happened already, but they're not forward-looking, right? Mm-hmm.
29:29
Like we're just talking about what's already happened. Right. ERA is what has already happened. Like your, your batting average is what has already happened. We try to look at expecteds and like where should this be?
29:41
Should he be better than he is right now? How does this look? Like what went on with all of that? 'Cause tho- those are predictors, right? Like we're trying to predict whether the guy has been lucky, unlucky.
29:51
That's another thing that I'm sure y'all reference here all the time. Oh, yeah. Like batting average balls in play, like b- you know, like BABIP and things like that. And that's for a pitcher and for a batter, right?
30:00
Like you can look at it from, on both ends. Is a pitcher- Fielding independent pitching, right... is a, is a batter, you know, if it... Is his BABIP like just super, super low? Like, you know, there's just a...
30:11
Because not every- You're not going to crush every baseball, but you still get hits when you don't crush a baseball. And so that's where the batting average balls in play kind of levels things out with all of that. And
30:21
if a guy's super, super low, that means he's pretty unlucky because the ones that he's not crushing are, are not falling still, right? He's not finding that little hole.
30:30
Little flares don't drop, the different things like that. And like these are all things that you have to take into account. And the same deal, flip side, to, to a, a pitcher, right?
30:39
You're looking and you're going, "Wait, wait, wait. This batting average ball's in play," unless they're just terrible, right? I mean, if they're a bad pitcher, then it can be super high.
30:45
But like if they're middling all the way up to higher tier, and you can kind of s- go in and go, "Hmm, last five starts, BABIP's been like way inflated."
30:54
He's due for some, some, some positive regression here in all of this, and you can take that into your handicapping as well. Okay, I love it. Um, how about some basic bet questions- Mm-hmm... for you for baseball?
31:03
I, you know, we don't do this very often, but I think a lot of people know money line versus run line, but maybe these are people that bet football and basketball all the time. Mm. Right?
31:11
They're used to betting spreads, and if they're gonna bet a money line, it's -120, 125, maybe that's the steepest they're looking at.
31:17
Now they're b- rolling into baseball and looking at -172s, and oh boy, I don't wanna lay that. Let me roll, lay run and a half. At what point do... W- uh, is there a point for you where you're looking more at run lines?
31:30
Is it, do you suggest any- everybody should be looking just at money lines unless you're doing your tr- your true own ratings yourself for these teams and what you think... Y- you know, projecting actual final scores.
31:41
Uh, what would you suggest for the newer bettors out there with baseball? Yeah. So I will on occasion bet run lines. I don't do it as many, as much as other people do. Yeah. Right? I, I didn't used to either. Um,
31:53
obviously the other thing about run lines, you're typically wanting to, you're wanting to bet road teams with run lines as opposed to home teams, because if a game is tied and one run comes across you, it's over.
32:07
So that's another thing to think about, too. If you're looking at a run line, you kinda want it to be a road team because there's no incentive for them to quit scoring- Right...
32:14
in the top of the eighth inning or ninth inning or whatever, something like that. But, you know, again, if it's a tie game, home team scores, game's over. You don't cover the run line. Mm. You know?
32:23
I think that's a great little tidbit. So, so something to, to think about if you're gonna play a run line.
32:27
More th- more times than not you'd like to, you'd like it to be the, the road team to guarantee that ninth inning at bat. I, um, m- there are games though I'll just pass on if the money line just gets too out of control.
32:39
Yeah. Even if I like the favorite, I'll just... I- it's, it's still baseball. And it's- Round ball, round ball, round bat, like we said. Uh, weird flares drop. Seeing eyes- Right... singles, the swinging bunts.
32:51
[laughs] You know, like- I mean, it's like you asked me the other day about how, how often are you going to lay double digits in NBA- Yeah... NBA games, right? It's, at a certain point it's just...
32:59
There, there's a lot of games we can bet you really wanna go- Yeah... you, you know, right? The old- Like-... the old adage... pretend, pretend Paul Skeens played on the Dodgers, and the Dodgers were- Yeah...
33:07
playing the Rockies, and it's like minus four or- It'd be -470, like [laughs]... yeah, like four, whatever, something like that. It's like, are they going to win that game? A whole lot of times, sure.
33:17
But like- It might even be a fair number. I mean- Right... it might even be getting some a- Right... some v- value on that number. Yes.
33:22
But even Paul Skeens gives up weird hits and flares and can get a blister on his finger and have to come out, you know, whatever, and all of those things.
33:29
So, yes, the, I will, I will forego betting even strong positions just because that's just not my style. I'm sure there will be other people- Yeah...
33:37
numbers guys in here be like, "No, if you're gonna edge us this, we're gonna bet it." No, right, sure. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But like, I just- I think that checks out with a lot of people... not my style. Okay, real quick.
33:42
Yeah. And we do have our baseball betting guide coming out here at VSiN February 17th. Adam Burke, Jensen Lewis do a lot of great work with that. Okay, real quick. Mm.
33:49
Any other thoughts, uh, uh, some of the new popular bets, right? F- we hear a lot about first innings. We hear a lot about the anytime home run hitters, anything like that. Is that something? How often do you bet?
34:00
Should people be staying away from that stuff? I wouldn't necessarily stay away. I will... There's just a lot of variance in that. Yeah. Okay. And like, if you're willing to take the rollercoaster ride, then sure.
34:10
I don't know if a lot of people can deal. Like, you might lose that 10 days in a row, you know, if that player. Put a bow on this one. We'll come back. [upbeat music] Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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35:16
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:33
Numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ricky Fowler, three birdies in three holes. Let's go, Rick. To nine under. Where, where's Isaiah at? Is he having a party downstairs, you think?
35:47
Does he have a r- Ricky Fowler watch party downstairs in the VSiN offices of Circa. Does he have a, do you have a Ricky ticket?
35:54
Probably, but he's like the biggest Ricky Fowler fan on the planet, 'cause, you know, he's still from like that age range. Lowkey, I made a Ricky ticket. Outright? Yeah. Good for you. I got top 20 on him. That's it.
36:05
But it was just a... That was more of a fun little thing. Well, that's my, that's my Maverick McNealy outright. Akshay Bhatia two under. Tony Finau one under. They all trail Rio Hasatsune, who is sitting at 10 under.
36:20
He's yet to tee off. I can't wait for the reaction on long shots next week if, uh, [smacks lips] Tony Finau wins this event. 'Cause guess what, Matt? I don't know that I'm g- I don't know what I'm gonna say.
36:32
I don't really have a feeling I'm gonna [laughs] have much to say about... It's gonna be the most random blip- Yeah... like on the... You know, right? Like, are we really supposed to read into that? Yeah.
36:40
We'll- And if not, if he's putting like this still. Also, we'll, like I said, easy pins first two days. Let's, let's see what these dudes look like on Saturday and Sunday. Yep.
36:51
I don't- Also, this is like the most gorgeous playing, perfect playing conditions I've ever seen at Pebble, it feels like. We should get on a plane and go
37:00
When we leave out of here Think Ben can pick us up on his way back from Texas? Ben, Ben, Ben can swoop in on his PJ and pick us up and we'll go up there- [laughs]... real quick.
37:09
Um, okay, so let's get to some of our plays. We can start with mine. I have Pearson Coody over Ryuu Satone, Si Woo Kim over J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin over Shane Lowry.
37:20
So those are the three plays that, uh, we have in there for the golf today. Those are head-to-heads and for round two only.
37:27
And then we talked about this earlier in the week, Orioles and Pirates over on their win total, Yankees and Dodgers under on theirs.
37:34
And I will throw in a bonus bet that you get just for listening and watching here that's not on the screen. And guess what that's gonna be? Damian Lillard to win the three-point competition. I'm gonna bet it.
37:43
I'm betting it. He's gonna win it. All right. I like it, I like it. I- It's happening... I wrote two down in the sheet.
37:49
I don't really know that I'm gonna be able to sit through the three-point contest though and not have a Dame Lillard bet on, uh, bet going. I'm with you. It feels, it feels bad.
37:57
Uh, I went Tyrese Maxey and Donovan Mitchell. That's where I'm gonna go right now f- uh, to win the three-point contest. Ran through these a little bit earlier.
38:04
Maxey with the most makes in attempts per game from that wide open range, uh, which, you know, is, you- you're looking at what people have shot for three points all this, uh, this year.
38:14
I do like to do the wide open looks, just, okay, how would, what, what does it look like in a game where there's a little bit more pressure?
38:20
But also, that wide open look like they are gonna get in the contest, where there's a little bit of pressure as well. So Maxey, and then I'm just gonna go Donovan Mitchell. You took him in the draft.
38:29
I waffled back and forth between him and, uh, uh, Jamal Murray. I'm gonna go Donovan Mitchell though, so I plus 750 on them. Those, both those guys feeling a little bit high.
38:37
And again, I think the, the one I'm gonna kinda save, so obviously this is not, it's not like I'm gonna make a ton if any of these guys hit.
38:43
I think I will add one more, Matt, and it's either gonna be, it's either gonna be Dame, 'cause I just, just FOMO and I don't wanna miss out on Dame winning this, or, like we talked about, if I see Norm Powell drift to a, a ridiculous number, I'll add him as well.
38:56
Phil Bobbitt, Daytona 500 bets from Phil on the show.
39:00
Outrights, he's got Kyle Larson 18 to 1, Ty Gibbs 40 to 1, Cole Custer 80 to 1, which that's just a rock solid NASCAR name, Jimmy Johnson 80 to 1, and Riley Herbst 125 to 1. We, uh... Oh,
39:13
I'm also on Kyle Larson, but who, no one cares about my opinion on that. That's just a complete tail, you know? It's not that nobody cares. Nobody should care about your opinion on that. Yes.
39:21
The only thing they should care about is that I have a better number. [laughs] Because I used a bonus thing. At 20- That's, that's right. They should care about that... at 20, I have 22 and a half to one.
39:28
There was a betting lesson from that, I have to say. Yes. I have 22 and a half to one on that. The betting lesson was not about NASCAR from- No... from Matt Brown, though, but- Taking advantage of opportunities...
39:36
exactly. Yes. Yes. Matchups for Phil. He's got Gibbs over, oh boy, Zilisch? Connor Zilisch. That's what we're gonna say. Yeah. And Kyle Larson over Austin Cindric, Michael McDowell over Ricky Stenhouse.
39:49
Minus 114, three matchups for Phil Bobbitt. And what we had Matt Grissom bets for today. Uh, Kansas State money line versus Iowa. Made sure to check these out.
39:59
One Ben Wilson on the call is the rumor, or at least crashing live shots out there. On one of them, yeah. Yeah. TCU money line plus 120 against Vanderbilt, and Arizona money line minus 160 versus Stanford.
40:11
Believe we got some season longs from Grissom as well. To win the College Baseball World Series, Arkansas plus 1650, Texas 17 to 1, Oregon State 30 to 1, Florida 40 to 1. Florida, the Florida Gators, not Florida State.
40:26
TCU 50 to 1. And then to make College Baseball World Series, Oregon State four to one, Florida plus 450, TCU five to one. Well, there's our week. No LSU on there. He's, it's the, it's the, it's the hate.
40:38
He's from Arkansas. He went to Arkansas. It's fine. Yeah. He's got a bias against us. Yeah. It's okay. Good Arkansas. They are, in fact- I will say-... the very short shot though. Yeah, they are the short shot.
40:47
I am, uh, I w- I was, yeah, I was giving him a little crap too about Florida State not making his list, but Matt Grissom has, uh, he's been a b- big Florida State supporter in the past, so I'm gonna let it slide.
40:57
LSU has- What's the deal with Oregon State in baseball, by the way?... such an in- incred- incredibly loaded team. I mean, like they are- LSU? Yeah... all, like so loaded. I mean, that, like that's not shocking.
41:07
What I always wonder about, especially these days, like how does Oregon State just keep reloading? Like this has been a thing now for like 20 years, like Oregon State baseball. You're, you're doing your thing.
41:16
You're acting like the, it's like the, it's the Pacific Northwest. Are there s- a lot of great baseball going on out there?
41:21
Well, at least it's, I mean, the, it's, it, it's not like it doesn't snow there, so you can, you can play there too.
41:25
Well, I know that, but like, uh, are we, are we ever talking about Oregon or Washington or Washington State football or, uh, baseball or anything? Or Oregon. Oregon is? Like Oregon, but I mean Oregon Phil Knight.
41:36
They got all that Nike money. Yeah, Phil Knight. Yeah. Phil Knight, they got Phil K- They shouldn't be bad at anything... they got Phil Knight, they got Phil Knight money.
41:43
So it's one of those, it's one of those where you look and you go, "They should be good every single year."
41:49
Well, if you wanna specifically just hear Ben Wilson, he will be on the Oklahoma-Texas Tech game that starts in 15 minutes, and TCU-Vanderbilt. What do they say? Flow some- Flow something? I don't know.
42:01
Uh, I really w- Flow base- Flow, Flow baseball. I hate that you asked the question. Something. I don't know. Yes. Flow baseball. Why do we not- And I believe in Kansas...
42:09
especially in this, especially in right now when there's nothing else going, how is this not on television? Like, why don't you just have normal television? It probably is. Why not get a new streaming service?
42:16
I, I'm assuming it's on ESPN National if Ben Wilson's on the call. It just- Why wouldn't it be? It said Flow baseball, is what he said. I like that, I like that Ben's takes e- end with always really good match-ups here.
42:26
[laughs] Whoa. Is this a real one? Is this real from Shaw- It is. What do we got? Chris Paul announces his retirement. Oh, man. All right. He's gonna go out like that.
42:36
Yeah, but then like that feels sad 'cause he wants to play and like nobody wanted him. Like, he was just getting sick of being used as a little trade chip here. Wow. So he's done 21 seasons.
42:49
Chris Paul, hell of a career, man. Hell of a career. In- Insta-Hall of Famer. Yes, Insta-Hall of Famer. And, um, you know what?
42:58
One of those guys, we like to talk about the eras all the time, and we were talking MJ and LeBron a little bit earlier, but you ki- you had that in between era too, right, where they, some, there, there were some guys that, that mattered a lot.
43:10
Well, Chris Paul, I guess, basically in LeBron's era the whole time. But you know what I'm saying. That mid, that mid-2000s era where some of those guys were making an impact
43:18
You'll matter for al- you'll always matter Man, you look down- The Mellos, the Chris Pauls, those type of guys... it's like you look, you look down and like- The JR Smiths...
43:26
if you, if you go to Bas- if you go to Basketball Reference, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12 all-star seasons for him. You get multiple different MVP,
43:42
uh, votes for him- Just a-... along the way. Yeah, I had to double-check one stat that's gonna blow your mind... this guy averaged, and again, like, you know, at one point was called the Point God. Mm-hmm. You know?
43:54
Multiple seasons of double digit assists average over the course of a season, before assists were cool. Yep. Assists are cool now, you know, but like- Yep... before assists were cool.
44:03
I, I think if you're of a certain age, you remember the golden age of Chris Paul. I think there's, uh... I think some people are gonna like just go, "Oh, that old dude retired?" And it's gonna like, "No, man.
44:13
Chris Paul retired," okay? Chris Paul was awesome. Can we go... You wanna do a little trivia here? Yeah, let's do it. Top 10 assist leaders of all time. Name as many as you can. John Stockton. Okay, number one.
44:25
Magic Johnson. Who's number two? Chris Paul. Chris Paul is number two. That, I, I believe that occurred this year. I think it was this. No, no, no, no. Never mind. He's 500 ahead of Jason Kidd. Um, Jason Kidd three.
44:37
Oh, I just tipped you one. But Chri- the Chris Paul, John Stockton finishes their career. Chris Paul played for how many years now? 20- 21... 21. He is still over 3,000 assists behind John Stockton.
44:50
[laughs] Like, it is just the... That Stockton assist number is just a... There are certain NBA records that are really gonna truly never be broken. That one's gonna be a very tough one to break.
45:00
All right, who else you got? But like the other thing here is like, I mean, we're talking about... Remember too, like we, we talked about his assists so much, Kelly.
45:07
He has multiple seasons of averaging nearly three steals a game too. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. He's up there on the steals list, yeah. I mean, it's just- He's, he's... Guess what? He's number two behind- Yeah...
45:19
John Stockton- I was gonna say... on the steals list. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's just so, so much. You, you know, st- steal- steals and assists goes one, two, three, Stockton, Paul, Kidd. Wow.
45:29
He averaged, I mean, in his heyday, we are talking 20 points a game, double dig- double digit assists, nearly, you know, two and a half or more steals a game,
45:43
and then he'll give you a handful of rebounds to go along with it. [upbeat music] Good on Chris Paul. Yep. And I'm glad he's, I'm glad he's decided he's not gonna go be sad somewhere else, you know? Mm-hmm.
45:54
For all of that. For Kelly, I am Matt Dungo in here. Money moves, prop points, make it rain, all still coming up here. And, uh, good luck on all your bets this weekend. [upbeat music]
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A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
