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Feb 14, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 14, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 14, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right.
0:11
Welcome into a Numbers Game on this Friday morning, February 14th. He's Kelly Bedell and I'm Joe Seralla, taking you into your weekend. And Kelly, it's February 14th. You know what that means, my man. What's that?
0:22
Happy Valentine's Day, brother. Oh, I thought it was because the NBA went on break today. No? Oh, okay. No, it's- Yeah, yeah, Happy Valentine's Day. Yeah.
0:28
Yeah, there's no sports, so we are stuck trying to, you know, find someone- Hey, a little-... to go on a date with... little pink and red. There we go. I, I like it. I like it. Feeling festive.
0:35
And shout-out to our guy, Darnell, huh? How about that? Give you some chocolate. Walked in here, I thought he was going for a fist bump, and then I'm like, "What the hell's in his hand?"
0:42
He's got chocolate for us on Valentine's Day. What a guy. Maybe he secretly meant to smash the chocolates into your hand so you would just struggle all show with it. Right, so I'd look like Jimmy Butler last night?
0:52
[laughs] Yeah, sure. Yeah, yeah, yeah. [laughs] That's right. That's right. Just, just give a, a little slap-ass with the chocolate in his hand- [laughs]...
0:57
and then you look like Jimmy Butler, who, by the way, there's no question he crapped himself- Mm... during that game. Did you see that? [laughs] Yeah, I did. I did. There was...
1:03
That, that's indisputable, what happened to Jimmy Butler last night on the court. Ugh. There is no doubt about that. That was like Paul Pierce some years back. Hey, as long as you keep winning, who cares, right?
1:13
[sighs] That's true. How about the line movement in that game? Whoo. Let's start there. I mean, because when we were on air, it was Houston laying six and a half. It opened Golden State what...
1:23
Uh, or was it Houston by a point? Houston won, yeah. And then it closed Golden State one and a half?
1:27
Uh, yeah, I guess that's what I caught this morning, 'cause I was writing something up for us of Dogs Sweep the Board, and then I was like, "Wait, what?"
1:33
And I'm looking over at a couple sites, I'm like, wow, it went all the way to Golden State, uh, one before, uh, before we tipped off. And yeah, that's what we have. Yeah, one and a half.
1:40
Yeah, here over at VSiN.com, one and a half all the way to Golden State one and a half. So yeah, that was a, [laughs] a bad read by some of the betters and bookmakers.
1:48
[laughs] I mean, I brought it up yesterday on the show and I thought I was completely in lockstep with them. I was like, "I think Steph probably sits. I think Jimmy Butler s- uh, sits." And- Right... I...
1:57
Hey, tip of the cap to the Rockets and Warriors, they know where they're at, uh, in the Western Conference and, uh, need to pick up every one of these wins that they can, um, for, for, uh, to improve themselves in the standing, and especially going up against each other.
2:09
Never know how that's gonna work out when the playoff seating comes down.
2:11
I'll tell you what, yesterday was such a weird day in the NBA because we talked about it on the show and, you know, we had Zach Cohen on and we doubled down on it when Zach came on.
2:19
The injury reports were so inconsistent. Yeah.
2:22
And you look at a game like Golden State-Houston, where we were certain Steph and Jimmy were probably going to be out because of the five and a half point line movement towards the Rockets.
2:30
And then of course, you know, that gets, uh, that, that comes back with eight-point movement towards Golden State. Absolutely obscene line movement there.
2:37
You look at the Miami-Dallas game, and [laughs] you were talking about playing Bam props. Mm-hmm. And then all of a sudden Bam doesn't play. Yep. Yep. And you know, and who else was out for Miami?
2:47
I mean- It was Terry, Wiggins, they had that stomach illness. Bam, I don't think was the stomach bug. I think he was a left knee contusion, it said. Yeah. I don't...
2:53
At least the night before he wasn't, uh, uh, listed with the illness stuff. So yeah, I mean, it's- Well, he was fantastic the night before...
2:59
you wa- y- you wanna say kudos to the Mavericks, but we do kinda know that Miami was dealing with this stuff. But man, the Ma- Mavs keep picking up wins, too. Can't, I can't knock this stuff, man.
3:08
I, it was, uh, they've looked, uh, pretty [laughs] way better than I was expecting. 30 and 26. I thought they would've folded by now. By the way, unrecognizable lineup for the Dallas Mavericks. My goodness.
3:19
No Kyrie, obviously no Anthony Davis, no PJ Washington, no Lively obviously. Klay Thompson didn't play. Mm-hmm. Uh, I mean, this starting five, uh, it, it, it really is, like, unrecognizable.
3:31
The fact that they just, uh, that these guys put up 118 on Miami and won a basketball game, it's like, whoa. Yeah, so this is what, three and one since the... No, no, I'm sorry. That was, that was five games ago.
3:42
So you are, Mavericks are four and two since the Luka trade, and one was an OT loss, another one was another two-point loss. Uh, that's pretty good. It's pretty good. They're hanging around. They're hanging around.
3:54
A- and, uh, and, and news on Daniel Gafford this morning, uh, who will sit out at least six weeks because of a grade three strain of the MCL in his right knee. Uh, that coming from ESPN.
4:05
So, uh, things only getting worse for that front court in Dallas. Yeah, they are really depleted down there.
4:11
But hey, as long as they keep winning games and they keep going out there and stringing things together, some unlikely heroes. I mean, Maxwell Prosper, it's not like he had a, a wild game, but you know, gets a start.
4:21
This is a guy who usually sees just a few minutes, averages under four points per game, and he goes out there, gives them double digits in a, in a starting effort. Minnesota, Oklahoma City, that one surprise you? Yeah.
4:32
I mean, really, yeah, brought it up yesterday on the show, right? If we're gonna, if we're gonna complain about the bad, uh, bad beats all the time, recognize when you get lucky.
4:39
The OKC win I had covering two nights ago was way, was way, b- uh, way worse. I, there's, I had no reason getting that one home.
4:47
Man, I thought the over, my over was looking good in that game, though, and then we roll into the fourth quarter, Joe, and 34 combined points from the two teams. And, uh- Yeah, come on, they just mailed it in...
4:55
ju- just goes under. But yeah, that's, uh, that was a good win for Minnesota.
4:59
This is another game, uh, I, another game like the Warriors we talk about, War- uh, uh, Warriors and Houston have just kinda given it, y- uh, you know, like w- people expecting before the All-Star break maybe you slow down, mail it in a little bit.
5:10
Both these teams, I, I mean, they threw everybody out there. This was a full strength ty- type of game and both these, uh, teams battling, and Minnesota coming out on top.
5:18
I will say that fourth quarter, though, that was about as, uh, a- as big of a pre-All-Star break fourth quarter as you could ask for. Mm-hmm. Yes. 'Cause they look like they both mailed it in by the fourth quarter.
5:28
34 combined points, like you mentioned. Clippers get home in overtime. They don't cover, but they beat Utah, 120-116. How about the Pelicans? Beating Sacramento, 140-133. I know the Kings were a popular play yesterday.
5:41
Pelicans, they mailed it in. They ga- uh, they sent Ingram to Toronto. Mm-hmm. 13 and 42, one of the worst records in the league, but they pull it out in OT.
5:50
Yeah, this is, uh, the, this Pelicans team has just been one of the most fascinating teams to be [laughs] in the league for the past few years, 'cause I am, I'm a Zion fan, but the injury d- uh, injuries are undeniable.
6:01
But man, they still got some great young talent. Herb Jones is gonna miss the rest of the year, it sounds like. Uh, but getting him back next year'll be huge. Trey Murphy with another year of development.
6:09
It's a fun young team. It's just see, interesting to see what they do with all these pieces. And Ingram, Ingram they had to move.
6:15
They had to move one of these guys just because of what their salary cap was ended up looking like and they're gonna have to pay. They got some big payments coming up from some of their younger stars.
6:22
But I, Pelicans, man, I know it's a bad season, but it's a bright future ahead in my opinion In college hoops, both ranked road favorites covered. Memphis went to USF, made a statement early, going up 15 at the half.
6:34
They end up winning by 15, covering seven and a half. Maryland goes to Nebraska, one-and-a-half point dogs in that one. So excuse me, I said road favorites.
6:43
They're the ranked team, but they were the, uh, underdog in that one, so Nebraska would've been your system play if you're all about taking the unranked home favorite against the ranked road opponent.
6:52
Maryland says, "Not this time." And that system, Kelly, has actually, uh, not been working lately.
6:57
I've noticed it was hot and heavy to start the season, and then lately the, the higher ranked road teams have been coming out there winning. Yeah, I think it's, uh...
7:05
I, I mean, look, I think it's something to always be aware of, but you s- you still gotta pick and choose spots, right? Any- Absolutely...
7:10
any of these kind of systems and trends we talk about, it doesn't mean fire blindly on any of them. And this Maryland team, metric-wise, you know, I know that they're ranked 25th.
7:17
They're not the sexiest team, but they do have similar metrics to teams like Michigan, teams like Arizona, teams like Marquette, who are all, I think, much more highly regarded.
7:26
Maybe not Michigan, maybe they're about neck and neck. But Marquette, Arizona, much more highly regarded than Maryland. This is a team I'd start to look for.
7:33
Big 10 tournament, maybe March Madness, they could make some noise. What is... I'm trying to pull up what they are in the outright market right now, because- Maryland?
7:41
Yeah, because I heard someone, 65 to one to win the NCAA tournament. Uh, I heard Drew Dinsick on the, uh, Deep Dive podcast, uh, just yesterday bring up that, uh- Oh, get out...
7:51
he recently got in on a ticket for them to win the tournament, just because he thinks that there are some flaws at the top. Yeah, I mean- And he thinks there are very beatable teams at the top.
8:00
You know, look, I, I would say right now it's, it's Duke, Alabama, Auburn, and then it's a wide-open field. Mm-hmm. And, you know, it's not hard. You know, you...
8:08
Someone might look at that and say, "Well, you just gave three teams that seem like a sure thing, so it's gotta be one of them."
8:12
It's not hard for each of those teams to just have one off performance, get knocked off, and then it becomes wide open. Mm-hmm, yep. You know? So I, I don't think there's a sure thing like Yukon in recent years.
8:22
Uh, Duke, Auburn, Bama, they are, I feel like, head and shoulders above the rest. They are in their own tier. But, I mean, if Alabama has a game where they get cold from beyond the arc, boom, they're exposed. Right.
8:31
You know? Right.
8:32
So, uh, as far as the next tier, it is pretty wide open, and if you're gonna take a team, maybe like an Iowa State or like an Arizona, well, at that point, why not go for a Maryland or a Clemson and get way better odds?
8:43
Mm-hmm. Because, you know, we talked about Clemson yesterday with John Henson. I think they're a team in the outright market. I don't know if you have their number in front of you. I think Clemson is very live.
8:53
80 to one. Wow, longer shot than Maryland, huh? Yep. I love it. You should talk about them on your golf podcast. That's a long shot for you, right? [laughs] Yeah.
9:01
Speaking of the golf, what'd you, what was your takeaway from the Genesis yesterday? Oh, man, what a des- I, hey, it's, uh... I, I, as I saw a couple of these tweets going around, but it was fair.
9:09
The, uh, the Genesis Invitational turned into a US Open all of a sudden, because the conditions were absolutely gross.
9:15
Eh, we, we were worried about yesterday, but man, the rain, uh, basically throughout the entire round off and on. Winds were g- gusting up to 25, 30 miles an hour. It was very evident, at least early in the day.
9:27
Um, you know, we, I was watching a bunch right off we got do- uh, right after we got done with the show. It was evident that greens were really tough for these guys to figure out with the wind.
9:35
Uh, with the rain soaking these poa greens and then the wind blowing as much as it was, there were some missed putts, as bad as I've seen in a while. So, uh, really looking forward to today's action.
9:45
Conditions are expected to be a little bit calmer, so we shouldn't have a, as much chaos out there on the court, Joe. Uh, but man, you still had...
9:53
It's tough when you, when you know you're battling in tough conditions, and then you still see [laughs] Scottie Scheffler just starting to cruise.
9:59
Um, like, I think there's, uh, you know, Denny McCarthy, this is gonna happen every once in a while. Denny McCarthy's your leader right now, four under par. Then you got Seamus Power, Patrick Rodgers, three under par.
10:08
Denny McCarthy, one of the best putters on the PGA tour. Putter got hot yesterday. Sometimes he's just gonna be able to...
10:13
I- it's hard for him to win tournaments 'cause it, is it's hard for him to do that over four rounds consecutively, Joe.
10:18
But for one round, he's always a good first round leader, look, I think, because of stuff, stuff like this. Gained over four strakes, uh, strokes on the field with the putter. Um, so that was massive.
10:27
But Scottie Scheffler's only two shots off. Listen to him on his post-round interview. Man, I, it...
10:32
For us that have been betting golf and Scottie Scheffler getting in the way so many times, uh, I did not like what I heard post-round from him, uh, Joe, because he was talking about how he thought he was in some, the best condition of his life this off-season right before he, uh, cut open his hand on old Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, whatever it was, and had to miss, miss a couple weeks and work on that.
10:53
But he star- he was saying how he's starting to get his swing back, starting to get the feel back, and I'm getting real nervous about what Scheffler, how good Scheffler's gonna be going forward.
11:02
Would you consider him at two to one here, or is that just not enough? It was the first price I looked at. Ah, man, it's... I, I can't blame you if you go and bet it with him, him two shots off the lead.
11:10
I'd probably give it to today, though. I usually don't get involved. We'll talk about some of the live outright prices.
11:15
I did pick out and choose the, uh, a, a couple that I thought could work if you really wanted to make a bet today.
11:20
I usually don't get involved in, uh, in round match-ups or, or even in tournament, just picking outrights, till about the third round.
11:28
I wa- usually wanna see two rounds unfold, and especially with the weather being as crazy it was yesterday. Let's get a calm day, uh, in there first. Scottie, plus 210 on the live number. Rory, seven to one.
11:38
Denny McCarthy, 12 to one, your current leader. More golf, more college hoops on the other side. It's the Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Joe Seralla.
11:45
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network
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13:11
As the Numbers Game continues, he's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Seralla, taking you through your Friday, February 14th.
13:17
As we get you ready for the weekend, folks, it is Valentine's Day, and Kelly and I were having a very important conversation as we were preparing for the show, you know, talking about our favorite future bets and the college hoops board this weekend, and then of course, the best chocolate that you can receive on Valentine's Day.
13:35
Kelly, what do you think the best chocolate for a day like today is? Anything milk chocolate, and if it involves peanut butter, okay? That's what I'll go with. Oh, if it involves peanut butter- Yeah...
13:44
whoever gives that to me is getting lucky. See, this is- No dispute... you started texting me about this yesterday.
13:48
I do, I do have the problem of, we, we did the, Matt Brown and I did the Halloween candy breakdowns and power rankings, and it was the, well, when, when it, when does something cross the line of candy to a, a seasonal candy, right?
14:02
So like, you know, a lot of it we just talk about are good candies on Halloween that really have nothing to do with Halloween, right? Well, it's the difference between, say, Reese's or the Reese's Christmas tree, right?
14:12
Or the Reese's Easter egg. Sure. Sure. Which is swore by the Reese's company. Because those are significantly better than a normal Reese's cup. Yeah.
14:18
The, the peanut butter to chocolate ratio, way more peanut butter in those holiday specials. I can't always remember the name of the fancy ones like you got in front of you. What is it?
14:26
The Ferrero Rocher that- Yeah, Ferrero Rocher... that our guy gave us? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. These are- It sounds like one of Gil's tennis players he bets on every day. [laughs] That's a good one. [laughs] Definitely.
14:35
That could be someone either on the tour playing golf, playing tennis. Uh, Ferrero Rocher is great. But those are good. Those are great. These are awesome. The Lindor, the Lindt truffle chocolate balls- Those are good...
14:44
those are my favorite. Yep. Those are good. Only balls allowed near my mouth on Valentine's Day. [laughs] Those are, those are good.
14:49
Those are- But when I texted you, though, we were go- talking about this yesterday, just regular boxes of chocolates, man, aw, they're like- So boring... 95% of them are disgusting. Yeah. Like, sorry, I'm boring.
14:59
I like- So- I like milk chocolate. I don't really like dark chocolate, and don't- I'm a dark chocolate guy. I'm a little different from you in that respect.
15:04
But like, don't surprise me with, like, some gross fruit fil- uh, filling in there or something like that, you know? Yeah, no. Like, I don't, no, no. Like some gelatin that was definitely made in 2008- Yeah. Yeah...
15:12
that could survive, like, a nuclear holocaust. And like, like- Don't give me that...
15:15
like, I can get on, I can maybe get on board with, like, raspberry, strawberry, but when it's, like, orange or something, like, I don't, I don't get those flavor combinations. All right, hot take.
15:24
Trader Joe's has, like, a chocolate orange thing. It's pretty good. I, I see, the, the, you, you- Also, I'm easy.
15:30
Just get me any kind of chocolate-covered nut from Trader Joe's and I'll be, like, the happiest guy in the world, and it's five bucks instead of going out to, you know, your local supermarket and getting the heart-shaped thing that's 20 bucks that's so inflated for the holiday.
15:40
See, the problem is you brought up Trader Joe's, so I can't, like, argue that, 'cause Trader Joe's is fantastic. The best store ever. Yeah, it's- And it's named after me. Right. [laughs] It doesn't get better than that.
15:49
It's named after you. I can't, the, the, the nuts I can't really do. And that's, that's one that d- that doesn't do a lot for me, either. Really? Yeah.
15:55
Give me, separate my peanuts and chocolate, just like my fruit and chocolate. I'd rather eat a strawberry by itself than a strawberry covered in chocolate. That's weird. [laughs] Is it?
16:06
I, I think they are- I don't know any other, like... Yeah... I think they're flavors that are very conflicting.
16:09
Give me a chocolate-covered strawberry, give me a chocolate-covered almond, a chocolate-covered nut any day of the week. I just want my peanut butter covered in chocolate. Chocolate peanut, yes. Absolutely.
16:15
[laughs] Any chocolate-peanut butter combination. I want my ice cream covered in chocolate. Yeah. That's, so, that works, absolutely. I want all the unhealthy stuff covered in more unhealthy stuff, okay?
16:25
[laughs] I love it. Kelly, uh, as we look at the Genesis, continuing piggybacking off what we were, uh, talking about at the last block there, any other names that really caught your attention after round one?
16:35
I know you said with the weather could have been a bit of an outlier round. You want to watch a little more. But, you know, a guy like Morikawa, uh, Morikawa, excuse me, was 16 to one going into the tournament.
16:44
Now, after a, a mediocre first round, he's down at 20 to one, still his fifth shot on the board. Yeah. Does that make him a little more intriguing? Uh, g- glad you brought him up.
16:52
Uh, I was high on him coming into the tournament. I mean, look, he's only five shots off the lead. I think that's important to keep in mind.
16:57
I think another thing important to keep in mind, though, is that there is a guy named Scottie Scheffler in between him and that lead. So I think the outright price makes it a little tough for me.
17:06
I did write down, though, of stuff that I would maybe consider getting involved with today if I wasn't already involved. Uh, Morikawa top 10 live, uh, you're getting, like, plus 120, plus 130 on that now.
17:16
Um, a- I think that's still a pretty good bet. What, what did I get pre- for on him pre-tournament? That was, uh, plu- plus 140. So you're right about same price here, but I, that was over at Circa.
17:25
I think more, more places he was about even money. So you're getting a little bit bi- uh, better bang for your buck if you want to play a market like that.
17:32
I think that makes a lot of sense, especially with how, how c- uh, bunched up that top of the leaderboard is. I think Morikawa top 10 bet, uh, would be interesting.
17:40
One guy that I've really got my eye on this year f- uh, for golf betting is Akshay Bhatia, and he is a guy that I did not come in, uh, to this tournament with any bets on Joe.
17:50
But, uh, he had an absolutely atrocious day putting yesterday. He's three over par for the tournament. Tee to green, though, gained, uh, almost three strokes on the field.
17:59
He, tee to green-wise, ranked sixth in the field yesterday. He's a very good putter. I have a feeling that the conditions threw him off a bit.
18:06
Whenever we talk, uh, whenever we talk golf betting, period, the, the, the toughest stat, uh, to really figure out is putting. It, it is the highest variance one, Joe.
18:15
Some guys can go out there, uh, and, and have great putting days, follow it up with a terrible putting day, and it's very rare to see.
18:22
Akshay Bhatia is one of the guys that's a quality putter, like Denny McCarthy, quality putter that usually pretty consistently goes out there and fills it up with the putter.
18:29
So I would expect him to bounce back after having such a bad day on the greens, improve there, and if the rest of the game's working, he's a guy to look out for. Again, not in the outright market, though.
18:38
Three, uh, at, at three over par, he's seven shots off the lead. I think if you want to look at a top 10, top 20 live, though, I think that could be a good bet Last thing I wanna ask you about this.
18:47
In terms of value, what, what do you perceive as better value? Scottie to win the whole thing right now plus 210, obviously compared to the rest of the board, not a, not a sexy number- Yeah...
18:55
but, you know, any time you're getting Scottie, it's, uh, you gotta feel pretty confident about it. Or to be the top finishing American at plus 140. Which do you think is better value?
19:06
Man, that is a great question and a great find, 'cause you fi- 'cause I got you- I finally-... on those markets.
19:11
Dude, I, I saw the word nationality pop out on DraftKings and I was like, "I wanna see what those live markets are like." Okay.
19:16
So you've got Seamus Power, Denny McCarthy, American, then you got Seamus Power, three under par- Irish... and then there's like, uh... Yeah, yeah. What, what'd I just say? No, no, Denny McCarthy, American.
19:26
Seamus is Irish. Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah. Okay. [laughs] Uh, and then you've got, what, seven Americans before you get down to Nico Echavarria and Min Woo Lee at one under par. Corey Conners at even par.
19:38
That's an interesting question.
19:40
I would probably, I mean, just looking of who's above Scottie Scheffler, it, uh, it's not too many names to be scared of, which leads me to belie- uh, leads me to believe that I'd probably just go with the outright price.
19:52
Yeah, at, at a little longer than 2 to 1?
19:54
It's a great, it's a great question though, Joe, and these are the things with so many markets available to us, and it almost doesn't matter what sport we talk about now, so many markets out there- Mm-hmm...
20:03
it is worth it to shop within the same shop. And we talk about shopping numbers. If you're looking at college basketball lines for the day, you're gonna look across three, four, five, six different books- Always...
20:13
to find the best odds.
20:14
Uh, it's sometimes with golf, sometimes with, with even with college basketball, if you're looking at different futures, you can find the same sort of way to get to the same bet that you're looking for within the same shop.
20:24
So what Joe just brought up, I highly recommend. Always consider these different markets.
20:27
A- and look, if there was a guy like Rory at the top of the leaderboard right now, maybe you'd wanna go Scottie to, to be the top American. Exactly. But if you're not really too scared of Seamus Power, then- That's it...
20:36
then you take Scottie at plus 210. It's the perfect breakdown. I love it. Perfect breakdown. Hey, s- you kinda segued into college hoops there- Yeah... fairly naturally.
20:43
Uh, I wanna get into two games quickly, and we'll circle back to them later, but there has been a little bit of line movement, so I, I wanna give these out as close to the number I got them at as possible.
20:52
Last night we were updating the rundown. Northern Kentucky minus 6 and a half at Green Bay. This is now universally 7 and a half. I would still play it. I, I mean, this is an auto fade of Doug Gottlieb right here.
21:05
Look at this Green Bay team. They're 0 and 14 straight up in Horizon League play. Now, these are actually the two worst covering teams in the Horizon League. Green Bay is 3, 10, and 1.
21:15
Northern Kentucky's actually 3 and 11. But Northern Kentucky's also 6 and 8 straight up. They're, they're no stranger to winning games, they just haven't been covering when they've been favorites.
21:24
Well, Wisconsin Green Bay, I mean, they're not even competitive. Look, look at their last four, and they're two, one, and one against the number. So they started conference play one and nine against the spread.
21:35
Now in their last four they're two, one, and one, but what have their covers and their push consisted of? Both covers were on the hook when they were 15 and a half point dogs. They lost by 15. Oy. Oy.
21:45
The push was as a 14-point dog. So even though they've got two covers and a push in their last four, they lost those games all by 14 or 15 points. Yeah, the old margin of victory is still big time minus, yeah.
21:56
The margin of victory is ugly, folks. [laughs] So ugly it can't get a date on Valentine's Day. So Northern Kentucky laying six and a half, now it's seven and a half. I would take either of those numbers.
22:05
The Norse are still a fairly respectable team even though they're not, they're not covering much.
22:10
They've actually covered two in a row, including a, an outright win over, or excuse me, two of three, including an outright win over Cleveland State, who's one of the top dogs in the Horizon League right now.
22:20
I'm expecting another double-digit loss for Green Bay. Northern Kentucky already beat them by 18. Green Bay's scoring defense out of 364 Division I teams ranks 347.
22:32
You can't do a national radio show and coach a team, Doug. Just can't be done. Up next, Joe DeLeon joins us. We're gonna talk NFL draft odds and some off-season future markets right here on The Numbers Game.
22:44
He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Seralla. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The Numbers Game continues.
22:59
He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Seralla, taking you through this Friday, February 14th edition of the big show as we get you folks ready for the weekend, and we'll start to get you ready for the NFL draft as we welcome into the program via the progressive guest line, our friend, NFL draft and college football analyst for A to Z Sports, my guy, Joe DeLeon.
23:18
Joe, how you doing, man? There is no face I'd rather wake up to on Valentine's Day than yours. [laughs] I just wanna make that very clear from the start. That's so sweet of you to say, Joe. I'm doing great.
23:29
I, I tweeted out, I, I was very excited to get to talk to you today, and it wouldn't be, uh, it wouldn't be a true Valentine's Day if we didn't get to share this, this very special moment.
23:37
Kelly, it's nice to meet you, by the way. Yeah. [laughs] Joe, it's great to have you on the show, but I echo that same sentiment, okay?
23:43
I would ra- who, who else would I rather spend Valentine's Day with than you two, okay? Come on. I, I mean, a couple of good-looking Joes. [laughs] That's right. It's a great way to start your morning, right?
23:51
Uh, Joe, I wanna start, you know, backtracking a little bit.
23:53
It feels like the Super Bowl, you know, we spent two weeks obviously, for those of you as, as part of the Numbers Game audience who don't know this, Joe is a regular on Cashing Out, comes on every week.
24:02
So we spent two weeks previewing this game, leading up to it, uh, you know, the two weeks felt like two years. And now, just five, six days later, it feels like the Super Bowl was already a year ago. Feels like old news.
24:14
But being a draft expert and analyst, and a college football expert yourself, Kansas City right now, the second shot on the board, seven to one to win it next year.
24:23
I mean, where do you see this Chiefs team going in the draft? Where do you see them improving as they're a little strapped for cash this off-season?
24:30
Well, o- one of my favorite early futures bets, and I know it's crazy early to be throwing one of these out there, I really like the idea of the Chiefs getting back there and winning it again.
24:39
If there's been a team- How?... over the last five years that has done such a great job of identifying their weaknesses and improving, it's the Kansas City Chiefs.
24:49
If we go back even further than that, what helped the Patriots during their dynasty? It was the fact that Bill Belichick, before he completely...
24:56
collapsed as a talent evaluator when he was making those general manager decisions. Before that, they were great at finding talent late in drafts, on day two, on day three.
25:07
I feel like that this Kansas City front office is, has been great at improving.
25:12
The last time that they fell short and they didn't win a Super Bowl, they put together a tremendous draft class with Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis. There was just such a, a, a effort
25:22
put towards rebuilding the roster, and those guys are key contributors right now.
25:26
I think the most important thing for them, though, taking that next step, they need to address aggressively their offensive line, and they need to find better receiving options.
25:37
And maybe also running back, this is that run, uh, running back class that is extremely loaded for them to get guys on day two and on day three.
25:45
But at the back end of the first round, where they're sitting, they should really strongly consider drafting somebody, um, uh, you know, like a, a Gray Zabel from North Dakota State who would be a fantastic player, or Jonah Savinea, who would be great at guard from Arizona.
26:01
And at receiver, this is not a great receiver class, which does not bode well for the Chiefs, but someone like a Matthew Golden from, uh, from Texas I think is worth considering, or a little bit later on, Jaden Higgins from Iowa State is somebody that I really, really like.
26:17
If they don't address either of those positions in this draft effectively, then I'm taking away that stance that I think they can go back and win a Super Bowl this upcoming year.
26:26
But I feel pretty confident that they're going to be strategic in approaching it.
26:30
Yeah, I'm, uh, I, I don't remember, I don't know how many picks they have in this year's draft, but I'd probably use almost every single one of them on offensive line. I think it's six total.
26:37
[laughs] Okay, so at least five of them should probably go to the offensive line. I'm with you there, Joe. Uh, j- uh, just hitting the futures board real quick, anything that jumped out to you?
26:45
'Cause I was a little surprised with s- a couple of the openers [laughs] were usually not. We get these odds the day after the Super Bowl every single year.
26:51
Usually there's not b- any huge surprises to me, but that, couple stood out and a couple have moved. Is there any that gr- you gravitated to, uh, to right away?
27:00
The one that caught my attention the most was the Bengals at 17 to 1, and part of me kind of wonders if that's gonna end up moving up after this off-season.
27:09
The first thing that they addressed was moving on from Lou Anarumo, who's a great defensive coordinator, but the guy that they hired from Notre Dame, Al Golden, was already a part of the staff at one point.
27:20
That is a very underrated decision to go with somebody who at one point was a position coach, who has familiarity with the system. There is no learning curve.
27:28
There is no chemistry building between him and, and, you know, the current [laughs] whole coaching staff and some of the guys who were already on the roster. So I love Al Golden as a DC.
27:36
I think he's a brilliant defensive mind. That is gonna help them improve.
27:40
And a lot of this, too, last draft they were aggressive at addressing their defense, but they had a lot of young dudes that were not really ready to contribute to the degree that they needed.
27:51
The thing that held them back was their defense being a mess. It had nothing to do with Joe Burrow. He was so good that he was in the MVP conversation despite missing the playoffs.
28:00
So if there's one team out there this upcoming NFL off-season and this NFL season that has a, just a really nice draft class and takes this huge leap forward, I think that the Cincinnati Bengals are, are worth considering.
28:13
Yeah, they've already moved down a tick from 18 to 1 to 17 to 1. Yeah.
28:17
I, I expect that to probably, uh, get, you know, a little shorter than 15 to 1 here, uh, in, in the not so distant future when it comes to the Bengals. All right, Joe, what about the Champs? What about the Eagles?
28:27
Howie Roseman has put on clinic after clinic when it comes to the draft, whether i- it's pretty much just going down to Georgia and swooping up their entire championship-winning defense.
28:37
I mean, you got Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Nokobe [laughs] De- uh, the Eagles are the Geor- are the Georgia Bulldogs. It's absolutely insane.
28:46
Uh, what he did last year with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean was, I, I think a bit of a surprise, doubling down on that position, and both of those guys had, uh, had Rookie of the Year caliber campaigns.
28:57
What do the Eagles do here?
29:00
Yeah, I think that for them in this upcoming draft, there's not really any major priorities that they need to go after, because you just mentioned there that this los- this roster's not only loaded, but it also has depth.
29:12
For me, it was like... And I did a mock draft a few weeks ago before the Super Bowl. It was kinda hard to pinpoint what makes sense in the first round.
29:20
They're probably gonna be a trade back candidate, because there's nothing super urgent for them to go after. They can continue to accumulate draft in a draft class that has a lot of really good defensive prospects.
29:30
But I feel like adding into the mix another receiver for them is important. We know that A.J.
29:36
Brown and DeVonta Smith are, are amazing, but you get a third option with Jahan Dotson, who didn't really do a whole lot after they traded for him.
29:44
The one thing, though, that I have a little bit of pause with talking about them repeating, I feel like a lot of things had to go right for them in order for them to go on this run and then play as dominantly as they did in the Super Bowl.
29:57
And the very specific thing I'm referring to is the health of Saquon Barkley. Saquon Barkley is the best running back in football. He's one of the greatest running back prospects that we've ever seen. Yeah.
30:07
He is insanely talented, but the thing with him is he, we've seen inconsistencies with his availability. He'll have a great season, and then the next year he'll end up getting banged up.
30:17
It's the reality that we live in with running backs.
30:20
So I, I have a little bit of pause seeing how important he was for their success, for Jalen Hurts' success, for the offense just being so much better the way that they played this year.
30:30
I'm a little bit off knowing that if Saquon gets banged up and he misses, starts to miss periods of time, or he's out for the playoff next year, that that is gonna impact their chances of repeating.
30:41
Well, what, what, what I'll say to that, Joe, is first off, you're right. No Saquon, no Super Bowl, right? And people could say, "Oh, well, he only had 50-something yards."
30:48
Yeah, he was their best player the entire, you know, path to getting there. And then in the Super Bowl, Kansas City's entire game plan revolved around taking him out of the game.
30:56
And so then Jalen Hurts and the, and the pass game were able to go and attack Kansas City's defense. But absolutely, no Saquon, no Super Bowl. Where I'll disagree with you- Is think about why Saquon's been hurt so much.
31:07
You and I are both Giants fans, man. The Giants haven't put out a competent offensive line in over a decade by now. Well, my, my counter to your counter, though, that doesn't prevent him from getting hit, though.
31:20
Just 'cause he's able to go so much further down the field before getting hit at the line of scrimmage, doesn't mean that he's going to not, you know, get contacted by a defender later on into a play.
31:32
I, I vaguely remember when he tore his ACL against the Bears, it wasn't, like, a huge gain, and I'm trying to remember exactly what had happened.
31:40
But he was trying to string out a play, and he was trying to create space for himself, and he just got driven way too hard into the ground. That led to his foot planting arc- awkwardly.
31:49
So the running back position, you can get hurt doing anything. You could get hurt standing still. I'm being hyperbolic, but it's a position- [laughs] I would hope...
31:57
you take enough hits throughout a season, wear and tear starts to factor in, and you could tear it in open field just trying to make a cut.
32:05
And I'm not trying to pitch that Saquon's gonna get hurt, and that I want him to get hurt. But all I'm trying to say here is that it is such a hard position to bank on health.
32:13
The best guys are the ones who have been the most healthy, and I'm sure that Saquon is gonna have another great season. Yo, final minute, let's get to the draft here.
32:21
Obviously, we'll be talking about the draft a lot in the coming months. Cam Ward, odds-on to go number one to Tennessee, -120. Behind him, Abdul Carter, +225. Shedeur is four to one.
32:32
Travis Hunter a little longer than that, +425, and then Jaxson Dart, 40 to one. So really, you're dealing with four guys that are shorter than five to one. Where do you see the Titans going?
32:42
Potentially, could a move like an Aaron Rodgers mix-up where quarterbacks go and mix up the, uh, the top of the draft? I, I think that it's open-ended on what they're gonna do.
32:51
They could go, either go quarterback, or they could end up approaching defense, taking Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter.
32:57
But for the betting angle specifically, I'm sticking with taking Cam Ward to be this first overall pick. Because if they decide to trade out, anyone who moves up to draft a quarterback is going for Cam Ward.
33:08
The more that I've evaluated him and Shedeur Sanders, the more that the general public has evaluated him, and the NFL has dug in, there's a clear difference in the talent level. Shedeur Sanders is super high floor.
33:20
He's super talented. He can be a great pro, but Cam Ward's got the big arm, and can turn into a top 10 quarterback or even better in the NFL. Yo, no one's more in tune with this stuff than you.
33:30
You put me onto Cam Ward when he was back at Incarnate Word. I wanna give you credit for that one. Enjoy your Valentine's Day. Send Christina my best. Appreciate you coming on. Follow him on Twitter @JoeDeLeon.
33:42
More Numbers Game after the break. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:35
As the Numbers Game continues, Joe Serallo here alongside Kelly Bedlam, as we've been almost all week, four days running now. Got all of next week together. It's been a blast.
34:45
Kelly, in the Valentine's Day spirit, we're gonna get to some bets here that we absolutely love. Mm-hmm. But first, you've got some, uh, some fun tweets to read. Yeah, we do. We do. We d- we get tweets. We get tweets.
34:58
Trip Tempe starting it this morning. I think this was before we even got on air, two minutes before we got on air. "Having a VSiN heartthrob Joe Serallo hosting A&G on Valentine's Day is elite producing." Yeah, no.
35:08
[laughs] Sure. Goodness. [laughs] Yeah. Sure. That's who makes the calls, me. Uh, "If Joe decided to moonlight as a country club tennis instructor, he could retire before he turns 40. Hat tip to Joe- [laughs]...
35:19
for being a good sport with the A&G community and all our jokes." I agree with that last sentence, Trip. What's with all the moonlighting I'm doing? Last week it was the country club bartender, and that wasn't even Trip.
35:28
That was a different person who said- That all me... I was, I'd moonlight as the country club bartender. Now it's a, a tennis pro. What about the pickleball pro? That's... That, that's the job I want.
35:36
Can't I, can't I be the pickleball pro?
35:37
I think there's a lot of guys that read that, uh, that read that one last, or heard us talk about the country club bartender, and laughed at it at first, and then said, "No, that's actually a good point."
35:46
Yeah, nope, wouldn't leave my wife for him. That's a, that's a good point. Nope. That's a good point. [laughs] Uh, Jamie Leyva tweeting in, "Ferrero Rocher is now my new favorite tennis player.
35:53
Have a great day, gentlemen." I agree. Uh, you wanna, gotta watch out for R- for Ferrero out there.
35:58
Uh, and then Mile High David tweeting in, letting you know, "Stray 150 to one out there for Clemson to win NCA Ba- uh, that is the, yeah, NCAA basketball championship." Yeah. Wow, where's that at?
36:07
Yeah, no, I'm gonna need a follow-up What was the number you gave me? 80 to one? 80 to one at DraftKings, yeah. Yeah. Where's the one... Come on, tell us the book. Shop around. Don't gatekeep. Shop around.
36:14
Tell us the book. I love it. We want more tweets. We've got- Yeah... uh, over an hour left here. I wanna hear what you folks think my Valentine's Day plans are for tonight. I think that would be fun in hour number two.
36:25
Give me your best shot, the funniest Valentine's Day plans that you think I've got tonight, and we'll read those out in the next hour of the program.
36:33
But Kelly, we've got to get to our real true love, our real first love. Mm. Sports betting. What futures are out there that you absolutely love? [gentle music] Oh, boy. Let's start it up.
36:47
Uh, the, the crew said they were gonna surprise me with music. I like it. This is nice, guys. This is nice. Do they?
36:52
Uh, I just, I just want- Would I imagine, like, holding your hand at a candlelit dinner, this is what would be playing in the background? [laughs] That's right, yes.
36:57
We order escargot for the first time- Wait, is that what we're doing tonight?... you ever try. Yes, 100%. Are you saying that's a theoretical? No, I mean, I told my friends I was going out with someone named Kelly.
37:05
[laughs] I just didn't specify the gender. [laughs]Well done, well done, well done. All right, I got one for you.
37:10
The futures bet I love right now here on Valentine's Day, it's still Thunder plus money to win the Western Conference. Ba- that's it. I, I bet it at plus 120, uh, uh, after the Luke Dončić trade.
37:22
I think it's silly that this is still plus money. The... We talked a little bit about this the other day. Look, there...
37:26
The difference between the East and the West, there are multiple teams at the top of the- the top tier in the Eastern Conference, and then a lot of garbage teams.
37:33
Yes, there could be, yeah, maybe o- um, any of three to maybe even four or five teams that the East could, uh, it could turn into a battle.
37:41
Out west, this is, I, I think, the little bit of a misconception all season, Joe. There are a lot of good teams out west. There are. There are.
37:49
Everybody likes to say it's the much tougher conference and much tougher to- conference to figure out because of that.
37:54
The problem is, is that the Oklahoma City Thunder are, are in a tier all by themselves at the very top. This is, over the past month and a half, the to- uh, best team in offensive rating and defensive rating in the NBA.
38:06
The redundancy they have at so many positions. We saw Chet Holmgren go down earlier in the year a- and Isaiah Hartenstein get healthy and get back in the lineup. They didn't miss a beat down low.
38:16
Yes, rebounding's still an issue. I like when I hear that, except we've barely seen this team with both of those guys out there. That could be solved very easily here over the next few months. SGA, he's gonna win MVP.
38:27
He's the odds-on leader right now. Okay, Jokic has a chance. I'm not gonna completely rule him out. But right now, SGA is my MVP at least. He's a- he's the leading scorer in the NBA.
38:36
He's going out there and dropping 32, almost 30, uh, 30 plus on a nightly basis. As long as he's able to stay healthy, Joe, he's really the only guy you gotta worry about. Most teams can't say that.
38:47
Most teams, there are injury concerns everywhere. Otherwise, we wouldn't be recommending to make this bet right now because we- it is still early in the NBA season to make a bet like this.
38:57
But I'm not overly worried about injury concerns when it comes to Oklahoma City because if some of these other guys that they have on their team that de- have to deal with a minor injury or two, they can easily fill, uh, fill them with guys off the bench who are quality bench players.
39:10
OKC, I think there's a lot that reminds you of what the Boston Celtics were last season is what you're seeing at the Oklahoma City Thunder.
39:17
I love them to win the Western Conference, and you're still getting plus money on it, which blows my mind. OKC, anything at plus money to win the Western Conference.
39:25
Ugh, Kelly, I'm not gonna lie, I'm a little disappointed.
39:28
That, that's like, that's like we've been together for five years, and you take me out to dinner, and I'm expecting a proposal and a ring, and I get earrings from a kiosk at a mall. Okay. A plus 105 bet?
39:41
Like, we're supposed to give out a future we love, and you're giving me something that's, like, even money? Yeah, I'm gonna give you- Come on. I'm gonna give you something that's real- Splurge a little bit...
39:48
that's- Give me a five to one. I'm gonna give you something that's realistic of hitting and happening. I'm gonna give you something that's damn near five to one- [laughs]... that is realistic.
39:56
And I'm gonna give you a bet that I love more than I will ever love a future partner of mine, a bet that I probably love more than I'll ever love my future children, and a bet that I definitely love more- Wow...
40:07
than I will ever love my future children's children. Give me the Boston Red Sox to win the American League East at longer than four to one.
40:16
You can get this at some shops plus 450 right now, including right here behind me at Circa. They've made all the moves. They've spent the money. They've brought in Walker Buehler. They've traded for Garrett Crochet.
40:28
They've fortified their bullpen. And now Alex Bregman is the cherry on top.
40:33
Raffi Devers, Alex Bregman, I don't care who plays third, who's on second, who's DH-ing, this Red Sox lineup, pound for pound, is one that'll compete with the Yankees. I think, frankly, it's better than the Yankees.
40:44
I think their starting pitching. Do they have Gerrit Cole at the top? No, but I believe it's deeper than the New York Yankees. And for that reason, I like an even juicier realistic bet.
40:55
At nine to one, give me an exacta of the Boston Red Sox to finish first in the American League East and the New York Yankees to finish second. We're turning the clock back 20 years. This rivalry is all the way back.
41:08
It's on. I like it. I like that one. That's the, uh... I don't know if you caught it, the Bregman. Uh, we didn't bring this up yesterday, but I thought one of the most, the fascinating...
41:16
So many different ways to bet now, right? I thought one of the greatest b- uh, betting movements I saw was the Bregman doubles- Doubles market. Yeah, yeah, the doubles market.
41:23
So it, it was 120 to 1 in t- uh, before he signed, and now it's 25 to 1. I s- I mean, he's gonna pepper that green monster. I saw as high as 130 to 1 and as short as 17 to 1. Uh, yeah, that is absurd.
41:35
I mean, people that were smart enough to jump on that one right away, hat tip to you, 'cause that is, uh... It makes a lot of sense, right? And, and if you think about it- Makes a lot of sense... the field is...
41:42
I, I mean, there's nothing like Fenway Park, and there's nothing like the green monster. Where he was in Houston, probably the, the most comparable left field to it.
41:52
And Bregman peppered that, you know, mini monster, if you will- Mm-hmm... a lot when he was an Astro. And now he's got the green monster there. And, you know, this is not a 30 home run guy.
42:00
This is not a guy that I'm expecting to, uh, you know, you know, to be rounding the bases a whole lot there. But man, you play that monster to your advantage, a- and Bregman could be a 40, 50 doubles guy.
42:10
Man, I'm telling you, if I w- if I was a big time just right-handed pull, pull hitter in Major League Baseball, like, home runs are awesome. Don't get me wrong.
42:17
There's nothing gonna be better than just hitting a lot of home runs.
42:19
I would be perfectly fine with just clanking double after double off that wall all day, and be like, "Hey, as long as you guys stay," like, "don't change the, these ballparks and don't make a uniform ballpark across all of Major League Baseball, I'm gonna keep taking advantage of this every single time."
42:33
Yeah. Where is that doubles market, by the way? That, that's not at every book, I don't think. No, it, it, it- Oh, here it is. It's under hits. Yeah, I was gonna say, maybe not every book- Yeah...
42:41
but most of them should have it. So at DraftKings, 'cause I, I just wanted to see where this movement's gone, he's down to 18 to 1. He's currently the third shot.
42:48
Actually, his teammate, Jaron Duran, is, uh, is seven to one, which makes sense because- Mm-hmm... Duran's got legs. I mean, that, he's one of the fastest guys in the league. So the one- Oh, he's the short shot. Wow.
42:59
Okay. Yeah, he's the short shot at seven to one. Uh, followed by Ezequiel Tovar in Colorado, which makes sense, and then Bobby Witt, who's a stud. José Ramírez, they're both 13 to 1.
43:07
And then Harper at 18 to 1, I don't like just 'cause can he stay healthy for me. Uh, but Duran makes a lot of sense. Bregman, I mean, he's not as fleet of foot as Duran. Duran's a, a stolen base machine.
43:17
He's, he's fast as hell. The green monster, the, the one caveat to that is sometimes if you hit the ball too hard, if you're not the fastest guy- [laughs] Right... those become long singles. Yeah.
43:27
Those become, you know, 300-foot singles. Yeah, that's a good call. That is a good call. That is very true. I had one of those when I was playing Little League.
43:33
For those of you that don't know this, you know, I, I know we get tweets calling me VSiN's heartthrob and whatnot. I was a, I was a plus-size little leaguer. Oh. And I once hit one- Chevy Joe...
43:42
I once hit one to the gap. It hit the fence, and I'm rounding first, and it ricochets right to the right fielder, and it turns into a long single. [laughs] And I turn to my coach and I go, "I don't know.
43:53
If that one was just, like, 10 feet to the left in right center, I think that could've been a triple." And he goes, "Joe, for you, a home run is a long single." [laughs] That's very good. I like it.
44:03
It was- We'll have to get the old Little League picture up maybe in the next hour. Yeah, we need that one. Show the people the, uh, the Valentine's Day heartthrob- There's that one... what he looks like at 12 years old.
44:11
Love it. In the next hour, gonna talk a little soccer. We did Champions League with our friend Paul Carr earlier in the week. Gonna switch it to some Premier League action that you don't wanna miss.
44:20
It's a numbers game, special Valentine's Day edition. Having some fun with it. He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Serallo. You're locked into VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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