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Feb 14, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 14, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | February 14, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Welcome into the Numbers Game with me, Joe Serallo, alongside Kelly Bidlin, getting you ready for your weekend here on this Friday, February 14th edition of the show.
0:19
And with the weekend comes a lot of Premier League action on tap. Who better to talk about it with than our friend, Paul Carr, from True Media Sports and, of course, the Expected Value podcast.
0:30
Gave out some great Champions League winners, some incredible value just the other day. Let's see if we can do it again with the Premier League. Paul, how you doing, man? I'm good, I'm good.
0:41
Yeah, we didn't, no Premier League last weekend 'cause it was the FA Cup, so we're getting back in the swing of things.
0:45
Uh, we're about two-thirds of the way through the season, so we're starting to head down the stretch. And we've got a match to start.
0:51
No official play from you on it, but I'd love to get your thoughts on this Brighton-Chelsea match. Yeah, this is an interesting one.
0:56
Brighton's, I'd say they've underachieved a little bit all season from kinda what people expected them to be.
1:02
Uh, Chelsea's been playing pretty well on the whole, and Nico Jackson is the big question mark here 'cause he's out. He's their top scorer, forward up top. He's out for this game. So I don't really have a play.
1:13
Uh, I kinda lean, I guess if I had to, I'd do something like Brighton draw no better, a little better than even money if I had to play something. But no official play here.
1:21
I think this'll be a pretty interesting game, but I don't have a good feeling about which way it might go. Paul, you've been on a tear recently.
1:27
We were talking about during the break, over eight units, uh, on, given out up, uh, up over eight units over the show, over the past month on the show, uh, on an absolute tear.
1:35
Champions League, it feels like I can remember about one losing day for you over that time. Uh, and I know we got a few plays to get to. I did wanna just ask you a question, though.
1:42
For, for people that are getting, i- trying to get into betting soccer, whether it's Premier League, Champions League, any of the European leagues, just kind of biggest piece of advice you have for what people should be looking at, uh, you know, stat-wise or, or what, how they should begin their process of learning how to i- learning and advancing handicapping soccer.
2:00
Yeah, and there's obviously a lot of different approaches. There's, some things are just very practical.
2:05
For example, we, we'll talk about this next week when we hit the Champions League second legs, uh, where there can be extra time and it's just, when you're in these knockout tournaments, it's know what's at stake and know what teams have to do.
2:16
Like, there'll be some weird lines next week because a draw will get a team through, or they can lose and still advance.
2:21
Uh, so just the simple mechanics of making sure you know what you're betting and what the team motivations are are probably the first thing, 'cause I think everyone who has started betting soccer has, uh, you know, made a bet and you think it loses, or you think it wins, but you realize you made a regulation bet and there was extra time and, and you get your, get it mixed up as far as what you actually bet.
2:42
So that's kinda the, the biggest thing is just make sure you understand it, you know, what's the two-way lines, the three-way lines, uh, regulation types of things like that. That would be something that I would do.
2:51
Just the very basic stuff. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I've, I did it. I've done it. [laughs] Everyone's done it when they start betting soccer.
2:56
You, you think you won something, then you realize it was a to advance instead of a 90-minute bet or something along those lines. Yeah, to advance and to lift the trophy, right?
3:03
Make sure you're looking at those markets [laughs] when you- Right... especially when we get into these tournaments- Right... like you're talking about. Paul, it's great advice.
3:08
You know I'm a novice when it comes to betting soccer, but as someone who grew up on Long Island, I'm a bit of an expert when it comes to Southampton. What's your play for the Southampton-Bournemouth game?
3:18
Yeah, I think we're gonna get some goals here one way or the other. I have over three and a half at plus 130. Uh, this may look a little odd.
3:24
You have teams that are 10th and 15th in total goals this season out of the 20 Premier League teams, but they're third and sixth in total expected goals.
3:32
And, you know, expected goals just how many goals you're expected to score based on the shots that you take.
3:37
Uh, and both teams are just running a little bit cold offensively, but four of Southampton's last five have had four-plus goals, and this is a stylistic bet as well in the sense that Southampton gives the ball away at the back.
3:50
Their defenders try to hang on to it. They give it away a lot, and Bournemouth presses with their attackers as well as any team in the league. They have the third-most possessions that start in that attacking third.
4:00
So I think Bournemouth's press will give Southampton trouble, which will lead to goals. Uh, so I like goals here, plus 130 on the over three and a half. All right. I like it.
4:09
Continuing on Saturday, Crystal Palace and Everton, another total play for you here. What you got, Paul? Yeah, this one's, this is a little bit of a zag. Uh, it's over two and a half at plus 120.
4:19
Uh, Crystal Palace, Everton, you would just call them kinda under type of teams this season. They're both in the bottom five in goals scored. But again, things are trending up.
4:28
Uh, Everton has a new manager, who was their old manager. His name's David Moyes, and they, three of the last five, they've had four-plus goals and two and a half plus expected goals.
4:38
And they've scored in four straight Premier League games with multiple goals in three of those.
4:41
So I'm not saying that he's opening the team up, but he is giving them more opportunities to score than they kinda had under the previous regime, which was, uh, under Sean Dyche, was much more defensive.
4:52
Uh, and Palace has been better lately in, in attack. They've scored twice in four of their last six.
4:56
I might hate this pick 10 minutes in when it looks like both teams are fine with a zero-zero, but getting plus 120 on over two and a half, I will take that chance.
5:04
And Paul, you've been killing it with the plus money plays. Of course, I wanna, you know, give some acknowledgement, give some credit to that plus 290 over, who was that? Man City, Real Madrid the other night?
5:13
Man City, Real Madrid, yeah. Yeah, over four and a half. That's over, I think it was one-one. Yeah, one-one in the 80th minute and over four and a half hits. [laughs] No sweat.
5:20
But I- What, what- That was part of the bet was, like, these teams get weird late in general- Yeah... especially Real Madrid. Things just open up and things get crazy.
5:27
So I, again, obviously it worked out really well, my favorite, the stoppage time winner. But that was part of the play is that things get loose late, and crazy stuff can happen. What a finish for you.
5:36
That game's one-one in the 80th. You had Juventus, which won in the, I think, 82nd minute. It, it was a strong, uh, strong day of finishes in the Champions League for you.
5:45
So you've been giving out these plus money overs with pretty good success. How about an under? What do you like in that Liverpool match? Yeah, I'll take the under three and a half here at minus 110.
5:55
Wrote a lot of Liverpool unders early in the season when they were really just kinda choking the life out of the game with possession.
6:02
They're not quite doing that as much now as they used to, but they're also not the rip-roaring attacking team they were under Jürgen Klopp last season.
6:10
Uh, they scored two or fewer in eight of their 11 home games, and this game is at home. And they've only conceded more than once in two of their nine home games.
6:17
So it's always a little scary to bet an under on a Liverpool home game, 'cause you just think, you know, like any team at their home venue, which is, you know, raucous and just a classic venue like Anfield is, it's a little bit scary 'cause you just think they're gonna get roll on and hang four on Wolverhampton, which they might.
6:33
But this Wolves team is not very good. They're really fortunate that they're not in the relegation zone now. They, they could still fall in there.
6:39
I just think this is like a two-nil, three-nil type of game for Liverpool where they're in control. They don't go nuts, but they, you know, it's a, a lunch pail type of game.
6:46
You know, you're at home, get your three points, go on your way and keep that, uh, lead safe in the Premier League title race.
6:53
All right, Paul, uh, I'm gonna bring you back to the top goal scorer market because, uh, as, as you can tell- Yeah, stranger... from a, a, a, you know, I'm, I'm a little obsessed with this.
7:00
The, uh, Er- Erling Haaland, I, I feel like I've been trying to get in- involved with it s- at some point during the season. Uh, I haven't yet.
7:08
I think it's pretty interesting though to see Mo Salah now with a three-goal lead. Uh, I know you're on the under with the Liverpool game on S- on Sunday. He's got a three-goal lead though right now.
7:17
He's mi- moved to the favorite, minus 125, Haaland plus 140. Uh, I was really hoping to get involved here- [laughs]... but I was hoping for a longer number. How do you look at this market right now? Yeah.
7:28
I kind of feeling similar to that in that seeing Haaland at plus 140, I, I don't remember seeing him that long over the past several years. So that, my first instinct is like, "Ah, we gotta jump on that."
7:38
D- do- But Salah's... But yeah, is he really gonna make up three? Right... and maybe four? It kind of, it depends on your book if they pay out a dead heat or whatever they do, uh, if, if guys tie.
7:49
That's tough at just one- plus 140. Take, I mean, it's not like Salah is slowing down or anything, and Liverpool is gonna have to, uh, push. The only case I can really make for Haaland here is
8:01
Liverpool rests Salah toward the end of the season.
8:02
Like, they clinch the title with, say, five games left, which they possibly could, maybe not that many, and he sits out a few games 'cause they're deep in Champions League or something. Okay.
8:11
But, you know, I mean, City's gonna be pushing for top four. So that's the only case I can really make.
8:14
Like, maybe it just gets, like, three more games than Salah does from kind of a Man City's gotta win this perspective. So unfortunately, we're still priced correctly pretty much. Yeah, damn. I think so.
8:23
I would want close- Sucks... plus 200. Yeah, that's what I was hoping to find. All right, maybe I'll shop around, see if I can. Paul, you mentioned City making a push for top four.
8:30
While we're talking futures, Liverpool's pretty in command to win the league. But is there any value in that top four market? Anything that intrigues you there? Uh, nothing crazy. I still kinda like Newcastle.
8:40
They're about plus 225. I have a future on them from before the season at almost at identical price. So it's not something I'm going out to play. Uh, but yeah, you have essentially four teams for two spots.
8:51
Uh, so I feel Newcastle's a couple points off of fourth right now, so I kinda like that. The one X factor in all of this is,
8:59
and this is a little bit complicated, but the Premier League's probably gonna get five Champions League spots, which means a team could be in fifth going into the last few days and not have to push for top four, which is a little bit strange.
9:11
But it depends on how all the English teams do in Champions League and the other European competitions this year. So that's just kind of a wrinkle to keep an eye on.
9:18
Like, Newcastle or any team could be in fifth going into the last couple days and be fine with that, depending on how everything else shakes out, both in Europe and in the Premier League.
9:26
Speaking of Newcastle, they've got a match with Man City tomorrow. Man City laying five cents, Newcastle plus 245, draw 3 to 1 there. Anything on that board that intrigues you? Any lean in that contest?
9:36
Yeah, I was thinking about the Newcastle double chance at minus 120. I've played a lot of doub- double chances against Man City this season successfully.
9:43
I'm not ready to say Man City is back in this game, but, you know, they've looked okay. Um, I just still don't quite trust them.
9:52
I mean, we saw it against Real Madrid where they were ahead two, three times and ended up losing that match, and that's kind of what City's been all season, just not quite clicking, especially defensively.
10:01
So I feel like Newcastle has the personnel with Alexander Isak and company to really take advantage of a weak Man City defense.
10:07
So I would lean toward Newcastle double chance minus 120, or maybe you can find a better price if you shop around. Paul, as always, sensational stuff, man. Really appreciate the time. Thanks for hopping on. You bet.
10:17
Happy Valentine's. Have a good weekend. Yeah, you as well. Our buddy Paul Carr, make sure you follow him on Twitter at PaulCarr. Check out the Expected Value podcast too.
10:26
That guy gives out a lot of value, that's for sure. A lot of plus money plays and a lot of them hit. Yep, yep. Yeah, I, I, man, he's been on a hell of a run here the past couple months on this show.
10:34
I'm just trying to fi- I'm shopping soccer prices right now, man. I'm trying to find Haaland at, at, like, plus 170. I think I'd get involved. I think I'd get involved. That guy's a beast.
10:43
You know, I, I fell into the same trap that you've warned me about because I don't bet soccer and, and you said that you and Gil sometimes, "Paul, come on, give out some great plays," and you'll be like, "You know what?
10:52
I'm gonna play that." And then you get home after the show and you settle down and, you know, you make yourself a soy latte like Kelly loves to do. [laughs] And you realize, "Oh, shoot, the match already started." Yeah.
11:01
That happened to me with Juventus the other day. I was gonna play it, and then I look and I'm like, "Oh, 40th minute. Very cool." Yeah, yeah, yeah, it happens to me way too often, way too often.
11:10
Yeah, it's the- But it's, those soy lattes just take too long. They're too time-consuming- Oh, man... for you to make. It's always, you know, you get done, we got some post-show stuff we gotta do.
11:17
Maybe run a, an errand or two on the way home, and then I'm settled down at my, uh, desk working on some NBA stuff for the day, working on the next day's show, and then I look up, like you said, and it's, oh, we're in the 20th minute already.
11:26
Yep, that's exactly- Thank you... what happened to me. And it would've been a sweat. You know, maybe, maybe it would've been a winner, but maybe I was okay without the stress in my life.
11:35
Speaking of your NBA stuff for the day, three-point contest, that's what we have to cap up next on A Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Serallo.
11:42
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:03
A Numbers Game continues here on this Friday morning, February 14th. Special Valentine's Day edition of the show with myself, Joe Serallo, alongside Kelly Bedlam as usual.
12:13
Make sure you get involved with the show, @kellybedlam on Twitter, @thejoeserallo for myself. Best tweets will get read on air. I wanna know what you folks think my Valentine's Day plans consist of.
12:25
We've already got a couple pouring in. Keep them coming. Later on, bottom of the hour, we will read the best Valentine's Day related tweets here on A Numbers Game.
12:34
Kelly, I know what your weekend's going to consist of, and that is- Betting the NBA All-Star Game festivities. I was gonna say- Maybe not the game itself... what about my Valentine's Day plans?
12:44
You- no, there's no Heather? Kelly, I told you I made the reservation at Andiamo for 8:00. Ah, thanks brother. Come on, man. Thanks. You're a good guy. Come on. You're a good guy. Bottle of Chianti- Ah...
12:50
a little candlelight. Endless possibilities. And you're paying, right? Of course. Okay, good. Come on, it's the- I'm not a cheap date... the host salary, you know? [laughs] Yeah, yeah.
13:00
The Gil Thilen salary, that's gotta be a good one right there. Oh, yeah. Yeah. [laughs] Oh, yeah. If it was existing. [laughs] No, there's a reason they bury me in the late nights.
13:09
They're like, "Oh, yeah, 11:00 PM Eastern?" Yeah. Yeah. "When everyone's passed out with a Domino's box on their stomach, that's when we'll put Joe on." This is, like, what?
13:15
The second or third show you've brought up Domino's. All right, po- uh, power- I don't know, yeah... power rank the, uh, power rank the, the big f- uh, pizza chains real quick. Ah. I don't eat any of them. Me either.
13:25
I'm from New York. I know. I'm, I'm a pizza snob. I know, me either. You know? I could power rank, like, New York City pizzerias. All right, I'm gonna give one specific pizza, 'cause I will occasionally eat this one.
13:34
If you say Little Caesars, I will have lost respect for you forever. No, no, no, no. I can't e- I c- I can't even- Got it... I can't even back up the whole restaurant, 'cause, like, their normal pizza I would never get.
13:43
Okay. But the stuffed crust at Pizza Hut still works. It still hits, man. Yeah, I don't do it. I will say, in college, 'cause I, I...
13:50
You know, remember, I'm from New York, from Long Island, so great pizza Long Island, great pizza New York City, and I have no shame in admitting the best pizza, New Haven, Connecticut.
13:57
What about- I got a lot of New York pride. Oh, yeah, yeah. New Haven, Connecticut, best pizza. There's pizza from everywhere these days, by the way. They...
14:03
Like, you go into a restaurant and they're like, "Yeah, we've got New Haven style. We've got this style." When they say Detroit style- "We've got this style"... I'm like- Detroit style... ugh. Yeah.
14:08
No, no disrespect to Detroit. I know Derrick Stevens, big Detroit guy. I don't go to Detroit for my pizza. Yeah, it is, uh... It's, it, it'll get me, though.
14:16
When I, whenever I'm at a place and I see a, like, city's pizza that I've never had before, I'm like, "Well, I'm gonna try that." Yeah, no. I, I don't. No? Play the hits. Yeah, okay. All right.
14:24
Stick to what you know there. We could, you know, that- What about bagels?... that might be next week. That might be a, that might be a segment, power ranking pizza and whatnot. Not a lot of sports going on.
14:32
[laughs] Oh, no, there's not. There's not. Uh, bagels, New York, New Jersey, or nowhere. Okay. Bagel's gotta be from, from New York or New Jersey. I mean, I've heard it's about, something about the water, Joe, right?
14:41
Yeah. It is. Absol- no, it, it... I'm dead ser- So Prince Street Pizza, there's locations. There's one here in Vegas, one or two in Vegas. Mm. There's a Prince Street, uh, in Los Angeles.
14:52
They import the water and the dough from the original Prince Street in New York. Okay, that's, that's pretty dang impressive. And that's why I'll go to Prince Street. Like, West Hollywood- That makes sense...
14:59
after a night out, you go to Prince Street and, you know, it's a good, good nightcap. I just, I don't...
15:03
I, I'm just laughing at that, 'cause I don't know how many New Yorkers I've worked with or known in my life that at some point, "It's about the water, Kelly. It's about the-" Absolutely. "It's about the water."
15:12
I'm like, all right, cool. It's about the water. The water I think has also been linked to cancer. I don't know- [laughs] I don't know if the pizza's linked to cancer, but yeah.
15:19
Well, I know Kelly's gonna have some sort of fast food pizza chain, and he'll be firing away bets Saturday night. Yeah. Three-point contest, dunk contest. What are you more in on? Skills? The skills contest? Oh, I can't.
15:32
I, the only thing I, I will bet is the three-point contest. So I, I, i- in, in fact, I will caution you to bet anything else. The, uh, slam dunk contest,
15:42
I don't wanna use the word rigged, but uh, you know, there's a, there's a big car company that sponsors it.
15:48
Sometimes it feels like there's a narrative, uh, player in the race that, uh, they wanna get up there and, uh, or in the field that they wanna get up there. And I...
15:56
Look, there's not even many shops that offer it, and you know- I haven't even seen dunk contest lines on DraftKings.
16:01
Yeah, and then, i- I don't know how often you've watched it recently, Joe, or ever, but the judging isn't exactly very scientific, where it's, like, pure pressure of whether to throw up a 10 or a nine or something like that.
16:11
Right. And it's, you know. And nobody wants to throw up the nine when everybody else threw up a 10, because they're gonna get booed by everybody. So I, I would say stay away from that.
16:19
Three-point contest, I usually make a couple bets a- have some fun with it. Damian Lillard [laughs] has now won this, what, two years in a row, which is kind of funny.
16:26
Um, just as a, three-point contest you think is a little bit more wide open. That's why I do like to get, uh, involved with like, I'll usually grab a couple players.
16:34
Um, just to break down the field real quick, Damian Lillard is your short shot, plus 340. Another past winner, Buddy Hield, five to one.
16:40
You got Darius Garland who is having his best shooting season of his career, uh, six to one.
16:45
Norman Powell, uh, one of the Cl- one of the guys carrying the Clippers this year, and uh, the second shot for most improved player, six to one as well. Tyler Herro, plus 650. Uh, Cam Johnson, seven to one.
16:56
Jalen Brunson, seven to one. And Cade Cunningham, good luck, 11 to one. Um, this is like, not to say that he can't win it, but the rest of this field is powerful enough.
17:04
And where we, we've knocked a lot of these, uh, a lot of the fields for the dunk contest. Three-point contest, you usually got some of the better players that step up, which is still fun to watch.
17:13
Uh, the one bet I know I'll be making, I probably will be adding a second here, Joe, but the one I'm going to be making is Tyler Herro. He's had, there's- He's seven to one at other shops, by the way. Yes.
17:23
Sh- a- as always, shop around. But yes, plus 650, I think that's good enough for me. Seven to one, though, like Joe's talking about, I did see that somewhere here.
17:30
I'm waiting, I'm cr- I haven't bet anything yet, 'cause I'm currently waiting for some of these Vegas books to throw up odds on this. Uh, not everybody has odds up, only a couple books currently with them up.
17:40
Um, but look, Herro is third, has the third most three-pointers made this year from wide open range. What we're talking about with that is his NBA statistics, defender six plus feet away is your closest defender.
17:51
So who's getting a wide open look at the bucket? That's really where I start just handicapping this. I mean, yes, you're looking for the best three-point shooters.
17:59
But- Isn't that how they play normal defense, by the way, in the NBA? I, well, it's, it's- Yeah, just give the guy six feet. I mean- You don't, you don't wanna hurt yourself...
18:04
it's drive past two passes, and then one guy's open in the corner. [laughs] That happens a lot. Very much. But you know- There would never be a, a shot with six feet of separation in the '80s. Yeah, yeah.
18:12
I mean, but you got guys like...
18:14
I, uh, the fact that Tyler Herro, Darius Garland, Damian Lillard can even, Jalen Brunson can even get as many of these as they can is impressive, because you know they're some of the focal points of the defenses.
18:26
The fact that- Right... they even have as many- Herro is the focal point now that Jimmy's gone. Right. It's the fact that, the fact that these guys have as many makes as they do from that wide open range is incredible.
18:34
So uh, Herro, uh, look, he's third most makes from that wide open range of just pure three-pointers made. The top two guys are Darius Garland and Buddy Hield.
18:42
Buddy Hield, that makes a lot of sense with, that's what he does. Um, you've had five different players this year hit 10 three, threes in a game, Tyler Herro being one of them.
18:50
We know he can shoot, uh, from this range incredibly well. First time All-Star too, so you wonder how much that has to play into it. Wants to go in there and put up a show.
18:58
Um, 39% from perimeter this year, and he's firing over 10 threes a game. It's what I like to see in someone that I'm looking for, really.
19:06
W- who's taken a lot of threes and making a lot of threes during the season, but then especially in that wide open range as well. T- so Tyler Herro's one I will be betting, Joe.
19:16
I'd hate to get shocky, 'cause I usually don't in this market. I have a feeling the other guy I'm gonna throw a couple bucks on is Lillard.
19:22
Li- Lillard's got a chance to win this three, I think it's three times in a row now for Lillard. Oh. And look, when you're- Not a good week for three-peats, though, Kelly. Not a good... That is a good point.
19:30
Not a good week for three-peats. Good point, Joe.
19:32
But this is the You know, if you're Damian Lillard, okay, it, with, the hype hasn't exactly lived up, uh, lived up to expectations when we've talked about what the pairing was gonna be with Lillard and Giannis in Milwaukee.
19:44
This season you're kinda struggling along as well.
19:47
I'm not saying this is anything that Lillard's gonna be all too excited and go crazy about and have a party about if he wins, but anything good out of a season that looks like it, I don't wanna say lost, but looks like it's gonna be a struggle to, to really break through in the Eastern Conference, probably means a little something to him, especially since we, we have seen him win two of these already.
20:04
So I, Herro definitely for me. I'm gonna shop around. As long as I can find something in that mid-threes, uh, range on Lillard, I'll probably bet him as well.
20:12
So I, I'd stay away from Lillard on this just because I, I don't think it's juicy enough. I don't like the value there, uh, for such a short shot, especially if you're gonna play multiple guys, in my opinion.
20:22
How much of a tax are we paying on Buddy Hield, being that it's in his home court? Do you think, like, w- would Buddy Hield be the second shortest shot if this was, I don't know, in Orlando?
20:32
If it was somewhere else, do you think that they're giving you, like, a, a home court tax on Buddy Hield here? It's a great question. Not really, though. No?
20:40
And honestly, one I didn't really consider from that, from that aspect, but I, I mean, that's, that's just a benefit for Buddy. You know, you, I mean, look, he knows these baskets, knows these sight lines better.
20:50
It's a, it's a little bit of a- Right. It's all about the sight line to me. That, that's everything. I mean, it's a, it's definitely a little bit of advantage.
20:55
How m- you know, how much we can argue back and forth, but- Yeah... it is definitely at least a little bit of an advantage for him.
21:00
So I, I mean, look, I do think just going over those wide open thre- the three point, uh, uh, ma- makes and attempts, right? Buddy Hield, of anybody on this list, it...
21:10
I mean, no, not Cam Johnson 'cause there's not enough good players on that team. [laughs] Uh, Buddy Hield, I mean, that's, that's- Probably sees the most open looks... that's what he lives for in the NBA. Right.
21:18
That's what he's lived for in the NBA for the past five seasons now.
21:21
It's, he's never the best or the second-best player on your team, but he can shoot lights out and he's gonna get a lot of those wide open looks from the better players. So I don't hate that, I don't hate that bet at all.
21:30
Yeah, I love your Herro analysis. If I was gonna, you know, uh, roll with two guys in this one, I'd probably put a little on Buddy at 5 to 1, and a little on Herro at 7 to 1. Mm-hmm. I think that's where I'd go.
21:40
Like I said, Lillard, just too short of a shot for me in a contest like this. It's funny Cunningham's up there because that, that's a guy that I associate with the skills competition maybe. Yeah, yeah.
21:49
I, I don't see Cunningham making a lot of noise, 10 to 1, 11 to 1, in a competition like this. But watch, now that we've both said that, he'll win the thing. Right. No, that's, yeah, that's Never fails... gonna happen.
21:58
And I usually do. Like you said, I usually don't look to, for the short shot at, uh, at the three point contest. Right. But with what Lillard's done the past couple years, eh. He's shown us. Exactly. Maybe, yeah.
22:06
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22:09
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22:48
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23:20
As the Numbers Game continues with myself, Joe Serallo, alongside Kelly Bedlam, getting you ready for the weekend on this Friday, February 14th edition of the big show.
23:31
Just talked some three point shooting contest markets ahead of All-Star Weekend in the NBA.
23:38
But now, Kelly, I feel like with a few days off, a little reset, what are we, about three-quarters of the way through the NBA season? It's a pretty good time to reevaluate some futures.
23:47
I know early next week we're gonna look at some updated win totals and, you know, make/miss playoffs odds. How about the awards market? Is there any anywhere to go in this MVP market?
23:58
Well, w- wanted to bring this up 'cause Tim Bontemps, if you track this at all, did just drop his second, uh- Go Bonas, baby... yeah, yeah, that's right... there's another St. Bonaventure alum, Tim Bontemps.
24:07
J- he did, uh, just drop his second MVP straw poll this morning. So usually this is the one we usually see signal the market the most.
24:16
However, uh, this year, I think for the past couple months [laughs] we've already kinda know it's two- known it's a two-horse race, and, uh, that's, that's how it shows up, uh, uh, in the voting.
24:25
So this is Tim Bontemps from ESPN. He basically polls 100, 100 g- people that would vote or could qualify to vote for the e- for the MVP.
24:34
So some of these are actual voters, some of them are not, but he does p- poll 100 people from s- uh, scattered all around the country.
24:40
So Sa- uh, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, I think no surprise, uh, at the top with the most first place votes, 70 first place, 30 second.
24:48
He didn't get any others, third, fourth, fifth, or, you know, everybody voted for him as well. Nikola Jokic, I believe, yeah, the only other person that everybody voted for.
24:57
30 first place votes, 69 second place votes, and one third place vote. Um, and then a big Giannis fan out there was the guy who did that, obviously. Giannis third in total votes.
25:07
No first, one second, f- uh, 77 third, fourth twel- uh, 12 fourth place votes, six fifth place votes. You got Tatum fourth, Donovan Mitchell fifth. This is pretty on-market.
25:19
We always kinda look to run and see how this affects MVP odds, uh, the morning he puts up his second one. We saw a li- a, a slight movement throughout the, the past couple days on SGA's number actually coming down.
25:30
It was minus 600 yesterday. Brandon Mendes and I were looking at this before the show. Down to minus 500. I think this voting kinda, uh, kinda shows you, though, that the odds are pr- priced pretty correctly.
25:41
Nikola Jokic at plus 350, SGA minus 500. As far as who's winning this award, it's down to those two. I think Shai's, uh, probably gonna win this th- thing barring any injury with how good this Thunder team's playing.
25:53
No, I mean, best record in the NBA. He's leading the scoring, uh, leading the scoring in NBA. Um, if you do look at some of the advanced analytics, Nikola Jokic has passed him, uh, in estimated plus minus.
26:04
Uh, he's slightly above where SGA is now.
26:06
Look, Niko- hey, the other argument now, the other side of this argument is, are we really not gonna give the MVP to Nikola Jokic, the best basketball player in the NBA, having his best [laughs] one, one of probably will have his best season in the NBA that he's ever had when we've seen him win this award three times already before.
26:22
It's a fair argument, Joe. I think this is just where it gets tricky with MVP almost, almost in any sport, but especially the NBA.
26:29
It, it, it's tough, but the reality is the best player in the NBA doesn't always win the MVP. And, and it's Michael Jordan didn't win it every single year he was playing.
26:36
LeBron James didn't win it every single year he was playing. Um, and surely we could sit here and say both those guys deserved more than they probably got.
26:44
Eh, n- that's already happened to Nikola Jokic at least once in his career. Uh, it's probably gonna happen a second time. I think it's just too easy. I think voter fatigue is real.
26:54
Um, and I think it's too easy when you have a guy, like with the resume of SGA, of what he's doing this season, what his team's doing this season, to give it to him.
27:02
So betting at the top of the board, eh, it was really not much, much value out there to me right now. But wanted to at least update it for everybody 'cause this is a big day usually in MVP odds that we see move.
27:13
Now, I did do my top five. I w- I did do the Kelly Bedlam, I did. Oh, yeah. We, we've got a Kelly Bedlam straw poll? I- I heard Tim Bontemps asked for it directly. Eh, th- he did, yeah. He, he texted me this morning.
27:22
I woke up, I'm like, "Timmy, I'll get to it as soon as I can. I got a show to prep, though, too." Uh, [laughs] so I put my five. Look, the five top vote getters, they all make sense.
27:32
I, I, I completely understand why they're in that order. And my top four, Joe, are exactly the same, too. It is SGA, Nikola Jokic, Giannis, and Jayson Tatum, my top four. I mixed it up with the fifth, though.
27:43
I had Dono- Karl-Anthony Towns, obviously. See, here's the, there, yeah, I'm glad you brought him up. Donovan Mitchell, great case.
27:49
Eh, this is, is h- is high up, at least in EPM metrics, that I can s- I can remember him in a while. And he is third in estimated plus minus. Has jumped Giannis Antetokounmpo, which is pretty dang impressive.
27:59
But with the points, points per game being down a little bit, uh, the rest, some of the other Cavs stepping up, um, okay, I think you could l- you could at least poke some holes in, i- in his case.
28:10
And the Knicks, the Knicks is a problem because I think that there are, you know, yeah, I mean, you're, you're a New York guy.
28:16
I think most people would say, as great as Kat has been, Jalen Brunson still makes this team run, and the, I think those two just kinda take votes away from each other. Absolutely, yep.
28:26
And take credit away from each other, and I think that's fair. Eh, w- w- w- I think it's fair to bring up and fair to say.
28:31
I mean, look, Jayson Tatum, uh, he's a guy that I've knocked before in the past when it's come to MVP. I think he's squarely in the top four and a little bit because Jaylen Brown is having a little bit of a down season.
28:40
He doesn't have his running mate picking up the slack. So I'm going off the board. I'm not going with a Cav and I'm not going with the Knicks.
28:46
I'm gonna give Victor Wembanyama the, the, uh, the, the hat tip here and put him fifth on my- Huh... top five.
28:51
Uh, with what Wemby continues to do, look, he, he's gonna be on these, uh, he's gonna be on these straw polls and up on the MVP voting for many years to come, and I think it's starting now.
29:01
Now, is it a stretch for me to put him fifth when his team's not 500? Yeah, yeah, that's fine. But this is still, the guy's putting up incredible stats, and they're still trying to figure out how to play him.
29:10
And now that Dejounte Fox is alongside of him, I expect those stats to only go up with him playing next to a real, a real playmaker.
29:17
In the coming years, he's gonna be awesome, but even the end of this season I expect him to finish strong. So I'm gonna go, I'm gonna go with him fifth and m- mix it up a little bit.
29:23
You know, your top five is actually identical to DraftKings' top five on the odds board. Wemby is fifth on the odds board at DraftKings. Really?
29:30
Kat is sixth, tied with, uh, actually tied with Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, and Anthony Edwards. Four-way tie at sixth on the DraftKings odds board, where of course SGA is minus 500, Jokic plus 350.
29:42
I mean, look, Jokic is having a sensational season. SGA is having a sensational season. I think this comes down to who's gonna get the one seed, and it looks like Oklahoma City's got the one seed locked in. Yeah.
29:52
And, and I think, you know, how do you argue against giving it to SGA when he's got his team positioned in the top overall seed? You could say, "Oh, well, what would the Nuggets look like without Jokic?"
30:01
What would the Thunder look like without SGA, you know? I, it, it's, it's neck and neck, and I think to your point, fatigue, uh, certainly plays a factor when you have a neck-and-neck race.
30:10
Oh, well let's give SGA his first instead of giving Jokic his fourth. But also, SGA is, you know, leading the best team in basketball.
30:16
Yeah, I'll have to double-check on these, but as of, like, a month ago this was the case.
30:19
The on/off splits are interesting because, uh, w- that, that's often used as an argument of ok- okay, if the Oka- Oklahoma City Thunder have such a better team, and I've ta- talked about this when we talked about the futures bets that we love, right?
30:31
Mm. The, the bench is such, i- is such high quality. There's a lot of good guys that can come in when SGA hit, uh, hits the bench to take a rest, and i- it's not the same case in Denver.
30:41
The problem is w- uh, as of a month ago at least, when you looked at the on-court metrics, it, it was still SGA's better than Nikola Jokic was o- o- on the court.
30:49
So that actually might've changed in the past month, but it's still, that stuff's important to look at and consider a- and I do expect him to end up winning.
30:56
Now, Kelly, I, I wanna, because there are people out there that might be navigating DraftKings and looking at the awards tab, and they might see something at the end called Clutch.
31:05
And I want, I want you to break this down for some people out there. If SGA is minus 500 to win the MVP, why is he 100 to 1 on the Clutch Player of the Year while Jokic is the odds-on guy there?
31:17
Okay, so this is, NBA clutch time is a newish, a, a newish stat category for them, and I have made a couple bets in this award, at this market. Oh, really? Okay.
31:24
And this is the first year I've ever done it, too, Joe, 'cause I wanted, I wanted a few years of data to build up to see how voters would handle this.
31:31
So clutch time is defined by the final five minutes of regulation or overtime when the score was w- is within five points. So the stats only in that small period matter, okay?
31:40
So the way this has kinda played out before, uh, in the awards voting is really, it's just, it's an NBA-created award. It's NBA-created award basically based off of their own clutch time stats.
31:52
So it's- I don't wanna say it's simplistic, but it's at least a simplistic handicap to start, where you could just go to nba.com, pull up, pull up their clutch time stats, and I would say look at the guys who are scoring the most, get the most shots during clutch time, and then al- and then if you think about this, Joe, what, the clutch time we just ran through, it's gotta be a close game, right?
32:11
Right. So you're not really looking at teams that are super good or super bad because- So Oklahoma City winning a lot of blowouts, hence SGA at 100-1. Exactly. That's why he's not in it.
32:21
So you're kinda looking for these teams that get stuck in these closer team, uh, closer games more often. And, uh, t- I believe, uh, Trae Young, I, I'll have to pull these up.
32:30
You, you surprised me a little bit with this. But Trae Young, I believe is still leading scorer. It's b- it's a close race at the top, though, for clutch time scoring, uh, leaders.
32:38
So Trae Young, Michael Montesano and I were talking about this a bit a couple weeks ago. Uh, we made bets on Trae Young and Tyrese Maxey, both in the double digit range.
32:45
You're seeing Young at plus 450 right now, Tyrese Maxey at eight to one. These over at DraftKings. Um, both of them, both of them I think are still pretty good bets.
32:53
Jokic I think is too big of a favorite here, but this comes down kinda like we talked about, a lot about with NFL MVP, Joe.
33:01
Is it too easy for the voters to go SGA MVP and now let's find some other award to give to Nikola Jokic almost no matter what? Like Offensive Player of the Year almost. Exactly. Yeah.
33:11
Like Lamar getting all those Offensive Player of the Year votes 'cause guys wanted to give Josh Allen MVP. Or the first team All Pro, Allen gets MVP. Exactly. Is Tyler Herro out for Most Improved, 15 to one?
33:21
It seems like a two h- two horse race, no, Kaden Powell? I hope not, 'cause I got a 55 to one on him. Wow, okay. I didn't even know that, and I like Herro in that market. Now 15 to one, third shortest odds on the board.
33:33
We'll look at NFL draft odds up next. Who's gonna go number one? Who's going to Nashville? Find out on The Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Seralla.
33:41
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:57
A Numbers Game continues here on VSiN. He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Serallo, getting you ready for your weekend. No better way to do that than with some best bets, right, Kelly? That's right.
34:07
Let's get into it, Best Bets brought to you by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. I gave out one college hoops play earlier. I've got two more on my Valentine's Day card.
34:18
Just to reiterate quickly, Northern Kentucky minus six and a half. Now it's seven and a half. I would still do it. This Green Bay team is atrocious. Don't be fooled [clears throat]
34:27
by the fact that Green Bay is on a little two, one and one against the number streak. They've lost all four of those games.
34:34
Shoot, they've lost all 14 of their conference games, and the two that they've covered were games that they were 15 and a half point dogs in that they lost by 15. So they covered both of those on the hook.
34:47
Their one push, they were a 14 point dog, lost by 14. So Green Bay, I mean, this team, all they do is they lose by double digits, right? Now they're six and a half point dogs, now seven and a half at some shops.
34:58
This is a Northern Kentucky team that beat them by 18 in their last meeting. I'm expecting another double digit loss for Doug Gottlieb's Green Bay squad.
35:08
Over in the Big 10, I think this is a great spot for UCLA to kind of buck the trend. Everyone now, Kelly, is kind of pointing towards the fact that UCLA has not won a game east of the Mountain Time Zone.
35:20
I believe they're O and five straight up when they have to travel east of, uh, the Pacific or the Mountain Time Zones. Well, classic Big 10 clash, I mean, and- Yeah, UCLA, Indiana...
35:29
how many times they've had to travel that far east, you know? [laughs] It's a lot. Racks up. [laughs] It, this, well, yeah. I mean, this, this used to be a Rose Bowl game. Right. Now, now it's conference play.
35:37
Uh, but I think this is a great spot for UCLA to end that. And, you know, people could say, "All right, well, you're talking about winning. What about covering?" I got the Bruins last night minus one.
35:45
You know, that's one and the same at that point. UCLA's defense, elite in the Big 10. Indiana, in terms of points per game allowed, ranks just 15th out of 18th, while the Bruins rank number one.
35:55
Offensively, these teams are very even, so I do think it'll be UCLA's defense that is the difference maker in this contest. And then to wrap it up, San Jose State. Gotta go back to Sparty. Catching six against Nevada.
36:08
How about San Jose State? They're 11 two and one against the number in conference play. Nine and two against the number at home. 12 and three as dogs. Five and one as home dogs.
36:18
Nevada, just four and nine against the spread in conference play. Two and five on the road, and one and three as road favorites.
36:25
These are two of the better three point shooting teams in the Mountain West, but Nevada stinks at defending the three. That'll probably be the difference maker here. Give me Sparty catching six at home. I like it.
36:36
I like it. I, it's nice to see, like, a UCLA game on a Friday night. It, has that finally bec- has that become more common since these, uh, conferences have gotten massive? Not a lot of great...
36:46
What are, what are you talking about? Like Friday night games, yeah. Like having good games on Fri- I mean, there's not a lot- Instead of like-... on the card tonight. Uh, you look- I mean, that's the only one...
36:51
UCLA, Indiana is pretty much the lone big one. I mean, you got Mountain West action with Nevada and, and San Jose State. You got your weekly A10 game with St. Louis, Loyola Chicago. Wow. I mean, Sister Jean's 103.
37:02
She's still going. There you... [laughs] Good, good. Happy Valentine's Day to Sister Jean. Yeah, yeah, [laughs] absolutely. [laughs] Um, the, uh...
37:08
No, it's just, it, you wanna just see- Think she can eat those, like, chocolates in the bi- or no, those are too hard for her. [laughs] Probably. [laughs] So weird. They are, they are.
37:15
No, it's nice to see, like, a legit matchup on a Friday night, though, instead of just, like, Manhattan and Siena, like, every single week. Yeah.
37:22
Like those poor kids- Actually, we've got Siena and Marist going at it Oh, okay.
37:24
Like, those poor kids at Manhattan, as far, as long as I've been involved in, uh, sports, sports media of any kind, they're playing every Friday night. Never get to- Yep, and they're hosting Merrimack tonight...
37:32
guys a break. Yeah, I already pulled it up, yeah. Merrimack playing two and a half on the r- actually, might be a good spot for Merrimack. Oh, really? Playing two and a half on the road.
37:37
[laughs] Those Manhattan kids, they're all, you know, they're all worried about what bar in, in the Lower East Side they're going out to after the game. Ah. You know? Any recommendations for them? A couple speakeasies.
37:45
You know, it's- Okay... Lower East Side's more, like, the casual vibe. It's not exactly like the- Mm... ts, ts, ts vibe, you know? That was pretty good. [laughs] Uh, okay, P- Paul Carr's Premier League bets, Southampton.
37:56
It's w- it's just one word. This isn't Southampton. It's, uh, this is the English version here, Joe, for- Yeah, I prefer Southampton. Yeah, this is the English version.
38:02
Southampton- Many nights in Southampton I don't remember. [laughs] You know what? This always feels like it's missing an H to me anyways. [laughs] So So- S- Southampton and Bournemouth over three and a half at plus 130.
38:12
This is Premier League action tomorrow for Paul Carr. Crystal Palace and Everton over two and a half, plus 120. I don't really know why I went over three and a half and then over two and a half goals.
38:21
They're both just over two and a half and three and a half goals, um, if you're watching at home.
38:25
Sunday, Liverpool and Wolverhampton under three and a half goals, uh, at minus 110, so three totals for Pa- Paul Carr, who has been, uh, on quite a heater the past couple months on this show. Nothing for me, Joe.
38:38
Nothing for me. I, uh, I- No best bets for Kelly? I don't, I don't put anything in the sheet or anything on the website until I've bet it. We talked about it earlier.
38:44
Tyler Herro will be in the account at some point, but I still gotta shop numbers. So I didn't put it down. I don't wanna put it down yet. Tyler Herro three-point contest, though, will be, uh, on the card for me tomorrow.
38:54
You know, we mentioned going to dinner at Andiamo tonight. Eight, eight o'clock reservation. Don't be late. What would the over under be on, uh, glasses of wine consumed by Kelly? Two and a half? Glasses?
39:04
Bo- I thought you were talking bottles. Bottles. Oh, baby. [laughs]. Oh, baby. It's gonna be a good Valentine's Day. Best bets, of course, folks, brought to you by GBank.
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39:24
That means you open an account today, you go on a date tonight, boom, you're gonna get your bonus.
39:28
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39:42
That's vsin.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions do apply. Kelly, we were talking about the Alex Bregman deal- Mm. Yes...
39:52
to the Red Sox earlier, and how Bregman at some shops was 120 to 1 to lead the league in doubles, to be your doubles leader across Major League Baseball coming into the season.
40:02
Now that he's got the Green Monster to play pepper with, he's down as short as 18 to 1. Think about that, from 120 to 1, down to 18 to 1.
40:11
The caveat there, the leader is his teammate, Jaron Duran, seven to one, because Duran's got wheels, and the one thing about the Green Monster is if you're not a speed demon, sometimes if you hit it too hard, that can just be a long single.
40:23
Let's take a look at- There he is... someone I know- There he is... that would've turned the Green Monster into a long single. Let's see- Look at that rookie card... Little League World Series Joe.
40:32
What do you think I'm doing with the Green Monster, man? Oh, man, you're just crushing home runs. [laughs] You're, man. Look at that smolder. What happened to both of us? We just went opposite directions.
40:42
I s- I still have the- What, what is this? I still have that smug, cocky smile. Y- y- yeah. Yeah, no crap. Ugh. That look screams, "I'm gonna hit one 350 feet- [laughs]... left center off you and then steal your girl."
40:52
[laughs] Oh, man. What each is- That's incredible. That's, uh, that's age 12, Little League World Series Joe. Yeah. And then [laughs]... Yeah, me and you were, uh- But look-... starving...
41:04
Stormy Bond and Tony just walked in- Dying laughing... getting ready for Money Moves, top of the hour, and she just walked in and saw that picture. The look on her face was priceless. I just gotta shake my head, man.
41:13
Me, me and you were about that, at the same playing weight at that age. We, we went opposite directions from there. [laughs] Wow. So that's Little League World Series, age 12. I think I'm 5'6", a buck 85 in that. Okay.
41:25
I was the cleanup hitting first baseman. As you should be. Then I, I stretched out and, uh, became a PO, pitcher only. Pi- pitcher [laughs] only. Cool. [laughs] Yeah. Batting practice is a lot more fun when you're a PO.
41:37
You're just, like, shagging fly-- If it's your day off, you're shagging flies. [laughs] You're, you're, you're screaming the words to Your Love by the outfield while you're- Man...
41:45
in the outfield, because that's the best BP song ever. That could be a, a good topic for next week, best warm-up songs for baseball. Okay. Best batting practice songs. I like it. I like it. I think Your Love...
41:54
I saw UNC, 'cause college baseball starts this weekend. Yeah.
41:58
And I saw UNC released, uh, they had, like, every walk-up song for guys on their team, and someone of course had Your Love, and that's gotta be, like, the first person who gets to pick, so it's always gotta be a senior.
42:09
That's always everyone's number one go-to. That was, I, I, no, it was, uh, uh, eventually we gotta move on, but now I gotta bring this back up. We, we, did we go as Joseph as a kid?
42:18
Or you want- No, I mean, you know, legally- You wanted a Joey or a Joe?... that's, that's the fed name. You know, it's- But, like, you needed your legal name on this fun baseball card for your team?
42:25
[laughs] Like, uh, uh, that was required? No, I think that was Joey. I feel like just being able to call you- That, that was Joey. That was Joey, okay. Yeah. So you were a Joey as a kid. I mean, look at those cheeks.
42:33
Those cheeks- Yeah, you had to be a Joey... scream Joey, right? Yeah, you had to be a Joey. Now it would be, like, weird. Now if anyone but my grandma calls me Joey- [laughs]...
42:38
it's kinda weird, but those cheeks scream Joey. Oh. They also scream hibernation. We- I was stuffing nuts in those for the winter. Yeah, winter's coming. Uh, but don't, don't [laughs]...
42:48
Yeah, you said something about that earlier on Valentine's Day. [laughs] Um, the, uh, well, I have totally just got, uh, derailed there. Uh- Yeah, you look flustered after that. Your cheeks are as red as your polo ever.
42:57
I can't, I can't get, I can't get over chubby Joe, man. You, uh, you've come so far. Yeah, I'm so proud of you. We tried. We tried. Did they just play the Valentine's Day music again? Yeah.
43:04
It's just, I'm really proud of you. It's, it's, it's hitting here. It's hitting here. So I will say, we brought up Bregman a- and that doubles number. I don't know if 18 to 1 is worth playing.
43:12
Honestly, still might be, just because I think he's gonna have a monster, no pun intended, a monster season- Oh, no... playing with that Green Monster there.
43:19
But if you're looking for value, I think the Red Sox are just loaded with value.
43:22
And we're gonna talk a lot of baseball futures next week, but, you know, you can get him at longer than four to one, as high as plus 450 if you shop around, to win the American League East. I love that.
43:32
I also love the exacta. I'm low on Baltimore this year. I- is that division just overall, is it, is it more difficult or least, or, or less difficult than last year? You know, uh, that's tu- the Red Sox are better.
43:44
'Cause they're d- they're different The Orioles are worse. Right, yeah. Right? So that's why I love the exacta. If you like Boston, I mean, look, the Yankees are such a big favorite in that division.
43:52
If you like Boston, you probably think the Yankees are gonna come in second. Right. So you can double your odds and go from plus 450 to nine to one on a Red Sox first, Yankees second exacta.
44:03
And that, my friends, is what I'm going to lock in this weekend. [upbeat music] Folks, the great content here at VSIN never stops. How about a Money Moves at noon Eastern coming up next?
44:12
Stormy Bond and Tony, I'm sure she'll have something to say about Joey's cheeks, and Mike Semich joining her.
44:17
Then Prop Points, the newly revamped edition, Nick Whelan and Jeff Erickson, 2:00 PM Eastern, followed by Make It Rain, Scott Seidenberg in today, 3:00 to 4:00 Eastern, only here on VSIN.
44:27
That does it for our Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bedell, and I'm Joe Serallo. Have a wonderful weekend and a great Valentine's Day, folks. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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