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Feb 18, 2026
A Numbers Game | February 18, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | February 18, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
46:04
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Transcript
0:00
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0:53
[electronic music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSIN.
1:02
[upbeat music] A numbers game here on VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. Matt Brown in for Gil for another few days. All the people coming in and sitting there going like, "Dude, I tuned in and it's not Gil."
1:18
And I'm like, "Don't worry man, three more days." Yeah. Three more days. Don't worry about it. Three more. Don't worry about it.
1:23
I don't know where Gil's at, man, but he's, uh, somewhere, some- somewhere warmer than us right now. I don't know if he's still down in, uh, South Beach. So I played golf- He, he didn't get back to me.
1:31
I asked him if he had another room available in the suite... I played golf on Friday with one Isaiah Von Wrinkle. Mm-hmm. You didn't, you didn't give him enough shots, I heard.
1:40
[laughs] In, uh, in, in short sleeves, and there was snow all over the place this morning. Yeah. I saw that tweet come down. Yeah. This is, uh- You got some, you got some snow up in the mountains there?
1:52
There, there was, there was snow everywhere this morning. Snowing at your house? Eh, a little bit to the west. Okay, more than... Okay, a little bit north. Yeah, a little, a little bit to the west. Yeah.
2:01
But snow-covered mountains everywhere. It g- it gets pretty- They were beautiful... it gets really bad when you move out to Las Vegas, 'cause you really stop checking the weather very often. Yeah.
2:10
And I knew it was supposed to get colder this week. I did. But then I woke up and saw tweets about snow, and yeah, I, I was not prepared for that. Look at it like that. It's wild. It is gorgeous though. I mean, yeah.
2:20
It, it, it is... It's very nice to be able to drive around, uh, this city and see snow surrounding it in the background. That was me very, very, uh...
2:28
I preach all the time, like, "Hey, don't do anything stupid while you're driving." And that was me trying to drive and t- turn a corner while also taking a picture of a, of a mountain- You know what, uh [laughs]......
2:37
you know what I mean, at the same time. And like, there's like a barrier on this side, and there's cones on this side- You know what-... and I'm still trying to, like, take the picture out the window.
2:44
You know what really scares me is, is, yes, the people that, A, do it, but somehow have gotten good at it- Hmm... which means they've done it that many times. That... 'Cause like the...
2:53
I think the one or two times I've even attempted something like that, Matt, it is so bad I immediately quit, and I'm like, "This is not a good picture. Like just, just stop and focus on the road." Well, I had to...
3:02
I zoomed in very closely right there for you to get whatever, 'cause the rest of it's just, like, construction equipment, you know what I mean? [laughs] So it's just like, yeah. [laughs] It's not, it's not...
3:10
The picture's not living anywhere other than my phone until it gets deleted. Like it's not... This... It's not going on the 'Gram or whatever. Yeah. I got, I got a lot of that going on- It's not-...
3:16
outside my place right now... not 'Gram quality. I'm giving, uh, I'm giving it, uh, over under 11 and a half days before I find a nail in my tire. It's just- Oh, that is the brutal part about all that. Yeah, right.
3:27
Like how? H- how are there so many nails on the road? I, I never understand that. Because of the, because of all the construction.
3:32
Like every person you know have, has dealt with, like, f- three nails in their tires over their lifetimes. Like, that's c- that's a crazy amount of nails. One to one. Yeah. We are so live. Who's laughing now, Han? Yeah.
3:45
Yeah. Who's laughing now, Han? I was trying to find a motivational speech from Mighty Ducks 2, where they are in the, uh... Representing USA- Mm-hmm... in the Junior Olympics. But you know what I, I...
3:55
What you for- You didn't get there? No. What you forget about that movie is it's really, it's really not a patriotic movie, 'cause, you know... Do you remember it? Mm-hmm. They shed the USA.
4:03
They're losing against Iceland in the, in the championship game, and they're like, "No, we're returning to the Mighty Ducks," which just...
4:08
I don't even know how that flew with the rules and everything, but they just ripped off the stars and striped the uniform. We had Uncle- Not very patriotic...
4:14
we had Uncle Buck over here on the Twitter machine that says, uh- Great movie... "Getting a, getting a day off due to a snow day, so tuning into the show." So for, l- what better way- Yeah, man... to spend a snow day?
4:26
So he caught us twice, President's Day- Well, and-... and a snow day today. Look at that. I mean, be safe out there, but that's a, uh- Yeah... it's like, sounds like a cozy week. Definitely appreciate a snow day.
4:34
One, one day [laughs] one-day work week so far ain't bad. [laughs] Yeah.
4:37
I'll tell you where it is not snowing, though it might not be the greatest of weather, and that is over there at Riviera, and we're gonna talk a little bit of golf here at Let's Go Country Club.
4:44
[upbeat music] There it is, Kelly. What, what, what are they? What are you gonna reference them from now on? Uh, bright flashing sticks. Uh, lightsabers. Flash sticks. Light sticks. Lightsabers.
5:02
I like the little guy at the end. [upbeat music] Little DJ short hop, so... It's Rob Moreno's, uh, fine work. Roberto Moreno. Where's he been at lately? He's been... Yeah, he's been- Peru? Oh, he's like- Uh-...
5:14
actually on vacation. Okay. Oh, he really is. Did I s- [laughs] We were about to talk trash about him, but he's like, actually he really is on vacation. [laughs] And I texted him both times, yes. [laughs] You know what?
5:20
Enjoy yourself then, Roberto. N- Enjoy yourself. I felt that he would appreciate that when you broke the UFC news, that I connected them both- Yeah... back to The Fast and the Furious as quickly as I did. Yeah.
5:30
We had a full conversation about it. I had no idea he was in Peru. Oh, dang. Enjoy. And you were like, "I was ruining this guy's vacation." Yeah, I ru- [laughs] Yeah, I was, I was ruining it for a solid 10 minutes. Well.
5:39
Well, and he's too nice of a gu- And he's too nice to be like- He's too nice... "Hey man, I'm on vacation." He's too nice, yeah. The first one...
5:44
You know what, you know what you do right there, is you respond to your first text and be like, "Hey man, yeah, that's so funny," blah, blah, blah. "We were just talking about it on vacation- [laughs]...
5:52
and whatever," but so like to kinda like give you the hint. [laughs] Don't, don't, don't come back at me. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. [laughs] But it's like, yeah, no. He just, he's, he just let you talk to him. Yeah.
5:59
He's like sitting there drinking a mai tai or whatever, you know? Or again, feel bad. All right, so we are at the Genesis here. This is an invitational. Since Tiger took over, it is no longer an open event. 72 players.
6:10
We're gonna get 50 in ties in anyone within 10. That is going to move on. So yes, in theory, this could be a no-cut event.
6:17
There will likely be a few people cut, but, uh, if my model's correct, [laughs] there will be at least 10 people, at least 10 people cut. Is it, is it kind of crazy to you when we...
6:26
Like, when this first started, we definitely said, "Well, this is gonna be interesting. We'll see how often- Yeah... it comes into play." It's a little wild to me it hasn't come into play yet. Yeah. I know.
6:35
It's, they, they cut people every one, every time that this is one of the deals here. Um, we're looking at a little over 7,300 yards.
6:42
We're looking at a par 71, which means one, one less, uh, par five, one additional par four. G- Kikuyu grass, this is a grass we do not see very often on tour. It's very interesting grass.
6:55
Uh, if you were, if you follow Titleist on the, uh, Instagram- [laughs]... they were out there yesterday with their head of product. What's that? That's funny.
7:06
[laughs] They were, they were out there with their head of product, and he, you know, so many of these dudes play Titleist wedges- Right... right, on tour.
7:12
And there w- apparently there was a, just a ton of, um, decisions being made as to what type of wedges they wanted to bring out there with them because of the wetness and the grass itself, and how the grass was reacting to the ball and all of that.
7:28
And so he had s- he said he had been working with a ton of the guys on which type of wedge they wanted to bring out there and play with them this week. Okay. So some guys are actually- That's interesting...
7:37
making decisions- Yeah... based off of the rough itself. Yeah, I mean, th- they, look, these guys, you're, you hear quotes almost every year about the Kikuyu. It's just, you don't play on it very often.
7:45
It, it's interesting. We, you know, in long shots yesterday, I thought Wes did a great job b- too about talking about the greens, and it's, A, it's poa.
7:52
This is not gonna be the same poa that you saw a week ago, even though [laughs] it is the same poa, it's just very different. It's gonna be super short- Yeah, way shorter... super hard, and super fast. Yeah, exactly.
8:02
This is not, you know, this is not like you're being right on the water at Pebble where they kind of have to grow it out, make it slower just in case winds get involved.
8:10
This is, yes, very closely sh- uh, shaved down poa that you're gonna get on these greens. So everything just a little bit different than what these guys are used to.
8:19
Yeah, I, um, I didn't really, I know you did, and this is why we, I, why it's fun to do- Mm-hmm... the podcast and stuff like that, which by the way, Long Shot's available wherever you get your podcasts. Go on in.
8:28
You can go to our very own YouTube, YouTube channel as well. And, um- It's right... you know, you, y- I think both of y'all put in poa putting into your model.
8:36
I didn't because these greens, everything that I read, it's like as wild as poa, I mean, if you're running at 12 and a half and they're super hard and, like, super f- like, super fast, it's not like the same type of poa putting- Right...
8:50
that we get on some of these other courses and stuff, which does get super bumpy and things and all of that. Like, these are probably not going to be like we saw these last couple of weeks.
8:58
I mean, we saw a few putts last week, and of course, there was precipitation in play there, where you could see right off the putter, the, the ball would jump left or right- Mm-hmm...
9:08
or whatever and, and, you know, it got so, the greens got so soft that you could, they were having to go fix just where people were walk- like, guys are just walking, but the greens had gotten so soft because you're, you step down, your footprint was making a, an, um, an indention, like a, a mark.
9:23
They do have the subair system here at Riviera Country Club. I imagine that comes with the $300,000 initiation fee that it costs to be a member there. Yeah, yeah.
9:31
So you do get the, uh, you are going to get, no ma- it, it could rain today, tomorrow, what, like, they'll be able to vacuum and suck all the, uh, moisture out of that. So they'll, the greens.
9:40
Now, the fairways, they don't have. The fairways will still be soft, and we might not get a bunch of roll out there, but the greens- Who-... are gonna be, greens are gonna be hard and fast no matter what. Yeah, yeah.
9:47
It's important to keep in mind. Yeah, greens will be the same. You might see, if it gets, I mean, it's been raining there- Mm...
9:52
and it's, I mean, this will lead me right into weather, 'cause I do think it's important to keep, uh, keep on top of that this week.
9:57
But yes, if it, you know, rains a lot, fairways might be a little bit of a mess, but you're right. W- where greens shouldn't be too much of a concern. I, I've been tracking this, and I think that if you are...
10:07
Look, Matt, Matt and I gotta do podcast shows. Mm-hmm. We gotta get some bets in. I, my recommendation would be wait on this to bet until later tonight, um, until you can really see what tomorrow's looking like.
10:18
Now, Ma- it, we, we did the podcast yesterday, brought this up on the pod as well. Mm-hmm. Doesn't look like it's going to be as bad as when we talked about it yesterday, so this is, look, it's weather.
10:26
No matter, we're talking about football, golf, the, the stuff's constantly changing.
10:30
You wanna have the be- most up-to-date information as late as possible before you make a bet if you think there's anything, uh, that could be involved here.
10:38
And you're seeing kinda, it, right now, 10:00 AM, at 10:00 AM through the, through the evening, it, gusts could get up into the 20s.
10:47
Now, the sustained winds do at l- uh, projections have come down, so that's a good thing. But it is a little bit more spread out, so it's also a little bit more spread out through the, throughout the day.
10:57
So maybe we don't get as much of a possible wave advantage here. Um, it looked like it was maybe those la- last five, six groups out to, uh, tomorrow were, were gonna have to be dealing with it the most.
11:07
This might be a little bit more spread out through the entire field now. So I think that's settles me down a little bit with some of the bets- Mm-hmm... that I made.
11:14
But again, this changed from just 20, in less than 24 hours ago. So I think if you are gonna bet this, I, there's no reason for you to not just wait till tonight before you get bets in.
11:22
Yeah, and I mean, West Coast best coast when it comes to sports, so if you're over there on the East Coast, the first tee time isn't until 10:15 Eastern your time. Oh, okay. If you're on the East Coast- So-...
11:30
you wake up early... like, like you can actually just make these bets in the morning.
11:33
Um, and if you're an early riser over here on the, on the West Coast, yeah, I mean, the fir- first, first tee times are not until 7:15 AM Pacific over here.
11:41
So you can even, you can even take in information right up until the last- Right... minute if you wanna wake up early and get those bets in.
11:47
But certainly people over there on the East Coast, I mean, you got until 10:15 Eastern.
11:50
So I would for sure kinda see what things look like, uh, tomorrow morning if you have the time before I put in the last of all of the bets. For me- Mm-hmm...
11:59
probably will have something this evening, probably will have something for us to talk about in the first segment when we come in here- Yeah...
12:05
tomorrow as we gather additional information, uh, as to how these conditions are going to be. 'Cause this is- Oh, I'm gonna be firing on some first rounds tomorrow. Yeah.
12:13
I, I've already got a couple circled, and that, this is, yeah, I mean, I probably shouldn't continue this. Friday doesn't look nearly as bad. You're gonna get more consistent weather through the weekend, it looks like.
12:23
Really, Thursday's the only day where we could see a spike. Cool, guys. Who did you bet? Well, we'll let you know whenever we come back [laughs] here on The Numbers Game, presented by Sports Betting Network.
12:46
You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:52
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13:00
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13:09
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:23
[laughs] The numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Man, we used to talk all the time about the VSiN++ subscription. Yeah. Some of them would, some of them would be, like, inappropriate.
13:36
Other ones are just would be hilarious, the conversations that go on, where we somehow in the span of 20 seconds went from cheese tortellini to golf simulators- Well-...
13:46
and then the conversation ended immediately- I think-... as we come back around...
13:50
you know, if any of our bosses are listening, I think I need to borrow one of- someone from the management team, one Isaiah Wrinkle, to go scout out a potential new broadcast location- Mm... here this afternoon.
14:00
There it is. So- He's- Might need to borrow him for a couple hours... he's gonna, uh, he's gonna need to be off at about 10:30. Right, yep. And he can come back about 1:00. Yeah, about 1:00. Yeah, sounds about right.
14:08
Yeah, yeah, you're right. He can come back about 1:00. Yep. That's kinda what we're gonna do, uh, with the ol... By the way, we're up now. We're up now, and you learned something on the break as well. Um- Ooh... Czechia.
14:18
Good save by the Ducks goaltender. Czechia. Who I forgot already. Not Czechia, Czechia. Well, I heard the broadcaster saying that and that, that checks out. You know? I did not play that- Ba-dum, boom, tss.
14:28
See there for the sound effects. Yep. I know. Rim shot. So anyway, Czechia. That, that's what I was given. I'm, I, I've asked Isaiah for a telestrator on this desk for two years now.
14:37
That's, that's how that con- that VSiN++ conversation got started. Figure, I figured I did a great job with the weather. I need a green screen next to me, right? There's a front coming in from the west.
14:47
[laughs] I think I'd be really good. So I said on the podcast yesterday that this might be a little bit better of a DFS tournament than a betting tournament for me.
14:56
I really wanted to come in here with some additional plays that I did not have on the podcast. Yeah. And so if you've already listened to the podcast, I... We'll talk DF- I will, I, I do have, like, a DFS angle- Okay...
15:05
and stuff on that, so we can at least go that, that way with it. But I couldn't quite get to anybody else that I would feel comfortable about, you know, recommending to you guys.
15:14
And that, and, and I know when we, Kelly, we talked about this after the pod and, like, we didn't get this on air, so we can at least get it on air now.
15:21
There are people that are gonna come in with six, seven, eight plays every single week. That is just not my style. Mm-hmm. Not really your style. Mm-hmm.
15:28
I'm not going to give plays for the sake of giving plays, and I'm not really a scattershot bettor. Mm-hmm. You know, that's just not, again, not my strategy either.
15:37
And so- Unless there's a specific tournament that calls for that, like Matt did- Sure... earlier this year with one. [laughs] Well, it's the, well, the ones that are- The AmEx or whatever that was. Yeah...
15:44
complete crap, yeah, the ones that are complete crap shoots, sure, then you just chop- Yeah... your units. Betting strategy based on the event. Yeah. But that is not to happen very often during the season.
15:51
And, and, and, and certainly that's never gonna be a tournament that, when Scottie Scheffler's involved either, right? Yeah.
15:56
I mean, like, so Scottie Scheffler is sitting at a little over 3 to 1 right now for good reason, and he has
16:02
been the best player in both of the last two tournaments over the last three rounds, and had he not played himself into a deficit in the first round, he would not only would have won the tournament, he'd have won it by multiple strokes.
16:11
Mm-hmm. And so it's, uh, it's tough to get to some, some of these guys in this tournament, like, you know, even if you wanna make the l- the greatest of case for them, what is the actual win equity?
16:22
And I think it's just super incredibly low. So for me, just a, just two real kinda
16:29
outrights that I feel good about, and then one that is kinda just based off of course history and the fact that he's still out there kinda bombing it around and whatever. But I'll start out with Xander.
16:38
I kinda wanna be in front of Xander. I saw some stuff that I liked last week from him. By the way, he's longer off the tee this season so far than he has been in his entire career.
16:49
You hear about these dudes doing the work in the off-season. Yeah. About the club head speed stuff, everything, everybody really and truly trying to get the ball speed up.
16:57
And you gotta chase some of these guys, and, and everybody understands now as well that accuracy's great, don't get me wrong, and you would love to be long and straight.
17:07
But if you could be long or straight, I think a lot of these guys would rather be long than straight at this point, because you've realized that hitting out of the rough, and we, we've talked about this the last couple years on the pod, hitting out of the rough with a pitching wedge- Mm-hmm...
17:20
or a nine iron is better than hitting out of the rough with an eight iron or a seven iron. Mm-hmm. If you, the further d- the further you are down, the better it is hitting out of the rough.
17:29
And that mat- this is one of these courses I think- Mm-hmm... that mat- that matters- It does... this week.
17:32
It does, and so I, that's why I emphasize h- driving distance as much as I did, and I really liked what I saw from Xander here the first couple of tournaments of the season.
17:39
So Xander comes in there on, in what I think is kinda form rounding into what we think more about Xander, right? Um, if Xander was playing like Xander of two years ago, Xander would not be 22 to 1.
17:51
Xander would be- Yeah... 12, 13, 14, something like that. He was priced very similar to Rory, remember? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, priced very s- It could easy, it easily could work his way back up. Yeah.
18:00
What, this is his third start of the season, right? Yeah. So and it's been mixed results so far. Uh, there were concerns. I, I had concerns that first tournament back with, you know, he had the rib injury- Mm-hmm...
18:10
a year ago. How was that, was that still affecting him? 'Cause he actually had a, a, I think it was a pretty wild off the tee, uh, opening tournament where there was some concern about that.
18:18
But, you know, to your overall point about the distance, I, I've said this a lot about Maverick McNealy the past few weeks. Mm-hmm.
18:24
He, he and Schauffele were guys the past couple years, but especially last year, I was really tracking that stuff, where it was noticeable. Mm-hmm. At different increments through the season.
18:32
You know, a couple, a couple months, every couple months, those guys were just getting a little bit longer and more consistent off the tee.
18:39
And I think it's something that I kind of expected with these guys heading into this year.
18:42
And then my second place, guy on the complete opposite side of that, I wanted to kinda- 'Cause I don't think he, I don't think you have to be a bomber here to win. I'd prefer- Yeah... you to be a bomber here to win.
18:54
Tommy Fleetwood is definitely not a bomber. He's not short, but he's not long. Like, yeah. So real, real quick, when we run our numbers- Mm-hmm... this is, 'cause this is gonna show up on my plays too. Yeah.
19:01
We run our numbers, like, the, Matt's, what Matt's saying, how much we're building in and weighing d- distance and, and ball speed and- Mm-hmm...
19:08
stuff like that off the tee, and then you have someone like Tommy Fleetwood that is still rating out so high. What does that mean? It means everything else we're factoring- Everything else...
19:16
at, in, he is excelling at to a degree that he's putting him up above some of the guys who are lower off the tee. Yeah, so I'm sitting here looking at this.
19:23
There is fifth, fourth, third, fourth in the four different models that I ran here for this one for Tommy Fleetwood.
19:30
And again, as much as I put in for driving distance and things like that, like, that's, that lets you know, right? Mm-hmm. I mean, he fills out every single other bucket.
19:39
I think he looked great in his first American start this past week. He had a good, uh, he had a good winter, fall season, whatever you wanna call it, as well. And so obviously one of the class players.
19:49
One of the few, one of the few in the field that if Scottie is s- is doing Scottie things can still hang and play with and, and compete with, uh, Scottie Scheffler.
19:59
So those are the two, and then Adam Scott's just more the horse for the course type guy. Tons of experience here, has tons of really good ex- uh, finishes here.
20:07
Still hits it long even though he's the kind of advanced age, if you will, for, for Adam Scott. Honestly, he just can't putt. Yeah.
20:14
If, if, if he could putt, he probably would actually be way, way, way higher in most everybody's models each and every week. But we're talking about a guy that, I mean, [laughs] Kelly, he, it's not that he can't putt.
20:26
Like, he is a full on bad putter. Mm-hmm. Like, I mean, like, he has not gained in putting in, in nine straight tournaments. He's lost in putting in nine straight tournaments. Man, that's rough.
20:35
That just lets you, I mean, if you don't have a spike week here and there, it just means you're bad at putting, period. He did have, like, a flurry of decent finishes, though- Yeah... last summer, right? Yeah.
20:42
I was betting him, a, even again last summer, it felt solid. So just one of those, maybe he can try and figure something out, maybe we can get some sort of spike week out of him.
20:51
No, I'm not, again, I'm not, like, jumping up and down thinking that this is going to be a play that's a slam dunk, because trust me, when you, when you lose as many in, in a row as he has on putting, it's, it's gonna be tough to win tournaments.
21:02
But those are the three outrights. Morikawa riding the heater here on the top 10. Mm-hmm. I don't know if he's gonna go back to back, but, uh, guy's hitting irons better than anybody in the world right now.
21:09
And then, uh, Max Homa, this another horse for the course. If you go in and look at Max Homa, nobody has played Riviera better than Max Homa. This guy is an absolute beast here.
21:17
While his game is maybe not in the greatest, we're talking about a top 20 at nearly 3 to 1. I mean, like, we, that's all we get out of Max Homa. Yeah, I f- can't hit on that. It's a top 20. We don't need him to win.
21:24
And a- and how many guys are in the field? We don't even need him to compete. Yeah. We need him to top 20. Top 20. Um- Your, your card, my friend. Okay, yes.
21:31
I, this is a rarity for me, but e- you know, one thing I wanted to bring up real quick. Mm-hmm. You, you'll hear it on the podcast.
21:36
I thought it was the most interesting, I thought it was the most interesting part of the podcast, actually.
21:41
But the conversation we had of just initial takeaways from the odds board a- and the fact that kind of me, Matt, and Wes all s- all saw it the same of just, when we run our numbers and I go and look at the odds, usually there's one or two or three guys that are kinda jumping out right away, depending, you know, maybe a different market that I wanna play them in.
21:59
The outright prices I thought were so on with the guys I was looking at. It just, I didn't think I was getting much value kinda in the mid-range where I was looking.
22:08
I thought where there was a little bit of value was on the Scheffler and Rory numbers a little bit. Mm-hmm. I know Wes ended up on Rory. I ended up on Scheffler this week. So it is a solo outright- Mm-hmm...
22:18
play for me on Scottie Scheffler. Says plus 375 there. I got it at 3 to 1. I used a boost, uh, to get it up there. I think anything over 3 to 1, though, is a playable number, uh, on Scottie Scheffler.
22:28
Just to go, eh, Matt just documented it very well. This isn't a course he's done amazing at in his career- Mm-hmm... but still, T10, T12, T7. Yep. I'm just comparing it to other Scottie Scheffler finishes.
22:38
It's not that great, but still. Remove two rounds, you said it, this guy's probably got three wins. Couple notes I caught from other guys, uh, that do golf, uh, uh, in the industries.
22:47
This from Ryan Noonan, "Scottie's gained more strokes tee to green than anyone else has at Riviera over the past four stops there." Okay, that's good. Mm-hmm. Uh, this from Rick Gamin I saw th- uh, this morning.
22:58
"Through three starts, Scheffler is gaining 2.99 strokes per round. There have only been four seasons of 3-plus, plus strokes gained, and those are all Tiger Woods, '99, 2000, 2006, 2007." So Scottie- There he is...
23:11
I know he's only got one win, playing amazing right now. I will back him this week.
23:15
One of the other guys I really liked, and this is kind of the same conversation as Tommy Fleetwood, I'm going to Hideki Matsuyama, the winner without Scheffler market.
23:22
Yes, 'cause I'm greedy and I would love to cash both of those. Mm-hmm. Scheffler and Hideki. Uh, backed it up with a top 10 as well. This another one.
23:29
Might have some concerns off the tee, might have some concerns on the green.
23:32
Everywhere else that I consider important, long iron play, around the green scrambling, Hideki is very, very, rates out extremely high, if not the best in the field at. So played him there.
23:42
And then top 20s, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jake Knapp, Rickie Fowler, Shane Lowry. And two tournament matchups for you, Fleetwood over Cantlay, and Russell Henley over Collin Morikawa. More in depth, obviously- Yeah...
23:53
over on the podcast if you wanna go check that out. Uh, Wes is right up over at vsin.com as well. So can't wait for this one. Certainly an interesting one- Let's go... with another stacked and absolutely loaded field.
24:05
When we come back, a look at some NBA regular season wins, head-to-heads. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:24
Numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. We are at the end of the first period. Czechia up 2 to 1 and still massive dogs. Dude, this- Massive dogs in this game...
24:34
it's been crazy, and I actually just got a tweet about this too, so I'll, I'll do some tweets here. But yeah, 2-1, live numbers right now, Canada down a goal, minus 375. I pulled this a- We played a third of the game.
24:45
Yeah, we were going through golf. I almost cut you off 'cause I saw- Yeah... this open up and it was, like, minus 350. And then- You were probably like halfway through your plays.
24:54
It was bet all the way down to minus 260, and now it's back to minus 375 on the Canada side, on the Canada side. So, um, yeah, that's pretty wild. Live total set at w- seven and a half,
25:08
under 120, and then you can lay a goal and a half at 120 with Canada. And then yeah, we actually got, got a tweet from Jeff in, Jeff in Vancouver. Guessing he's rooting on Canada.
25:18
Uh, he goes, "I don't know if books can take bets on Olympic sports. After watching a bunch of curling, for example, would be so easy to fix. Do the books just restrict amounts? I'd be paranoid."
25:27
Can't really fully answer this, Jeff. I would, I think there's probably more restricting going on, uh, with the Olympic ones, I would guess, than some r- uh, normal sports.
25:35
The only thing I would say about the fixing, a- any one of these athletes, I don't think you train your whole life to get to this point to then fix something like this, right? Yeah. Um, so yes- I think I'd be lo-...
25:47
the betting limits are not super high. Two, they don't allow any of the judged events anyway. Because- In some states... because that- Yeah... would be for sure riggable. That part, yes. Yeah.
25:59
So, the, so th- there has to be an out, like an, uh, an, a s- a fixed outcome- Right... is, is the way to put it. A fixed outcome in those, so- They do have some states where they offer that though, right?
26:11
You can make bets on some of the judged events, right? Nah. Like none of the figure skating? No. No figure skating, so. Wow, okay. Yeah. I, I thought it was just more of a Nevada thing. All right.
26:20
You might could make a deal... I mean, you might could make a bet at the beginning or something like that- Oh, yeah... of who will be like- Medal... medal or something- Yeah... or whatever, something like any of those.
26:29
But like, yeah, you can't like do like get to the fi- get to the final round and be like, "Okay, this person's gonna win," or, "This person's not," or whatever, you know, and all that stuff.
26:37
'Cause again, then, then you bring shenanigans into play and we don't want shenanigans. Yeah, the, uh- We don't like shenanigans... glad you brought up the judging 'cause the, uh- Yeah...
26:43
I could, I am pretty sure no athletes have worked this hard to then, uh, go, uh, go do something like that. But yeah- Have you seen-... a, a judge? Yeah, yeah, a judge- Have you seen some of the pay-...
26:53
a judge can be influenced... have you seen some of the pay for some of these countries? What? So like Singapore- Like the athletes are- Like Singapore if you win a gold, it's $750,000. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
27:02
I've seen some of those. But for us it's like 40. Like why are, why are we paying, why, why are we not giving these dudes more than, more than 40K for a gold?
27:10
Um, my guess would be that they have other ways to make money, spon- Yeah... more sponsorship opportunities, right? Stuff like that. I, I don't know though. It's fair. I don't know.
27:20
And then, uh, Dgen Southern Gent tweeting in, uh, "Lived in Fort Worth for three years. Now this will lead us into our NBA conversation." Right outside of Dallas for those who are wondering. Yeah.
27:26
"Made friends with a number of Mavericks fans in that time, including coworker who has season tickets.
27:30
General fan base consensus, after what happened with Luka, they're fine with taking whatever it takes to keep Tu- Cooper here." Yeah. And you know what, you know what would help? Another star player alongside him. Yeah.
27:41
And so if you can get into that lottery, and if you can somehow buck the system again, wow. Wow. It is, uh- Can you imagine, can you imagine how a, the sentiment around a franchise flipping so quickly over...
27:57
I mean, like we were crushing this team, crushing this team a year- Not deservedly so, but yes. No, no, yeah. Yeah, yeah.
28:03
But, but, but, but then you, if you landed Cooper Flagg and then one of these top three players in two years and you just go, "Oh, well, okay." Yeah.
28:10
I mean, like it's still dumb, but like, hey man, that's a, that's a- Yeah, but-... that's a pretty good get... if you're rolling out Darren Peterson- [laughs]...
28:17
and Cooper Flagg next year somehow, yeah, yeah, you'll be okay with it Mavericks fans. You'll be okay with it. Uh, it's just un- unbelievable, so we'll, we'll see how it all plays out.
28:25
So okay, let's rattle through some of these. These are available for everybody to go bet right now, these, uh, wins, t- win total head-to-heads, right?
28:31
So Cavs versus Knicks, Cavs versus Nuggets, Nuggets versus Rockets, Knicks versus Rockets, and then Cavs versus Rockets. Um, so you can go in.
28:42
The odds are according, so obviously the Cavs are gonna be a little bit, you know, favored over the Knicks, so minus 190, 150 Cavs over the Nuggets, 125 to even money. Nuggets are favored over the Rockets, 150 plus 120.
28:52
Then you get, uh, 110 on both sides there, Knicks and Rockets, and then the Cavs, big favorites over the Rockets as well, minus 180 to plus 145.
28:58
Yeah, schedule being baked in here for sure, like this is the, the Cavs being that much more- Mm-hmm... of a favorite from the N- uh, uh, of the Knicks I thought was a little aggressive.
29:08
However, like we, I, we weren't gonna spend too much time on this. Mm. Actually there's a couple good bets here, but we've ta- we've talked a lot. Yes.
29:13
And we're going to talk some division stuff here, which, uh, w- which rolls into this.
29:18
W- we talked about the Cavs and the light schedule that they, that they do have coming down the stretch, and what we've also talked about is the Denver Nuggets and them having a very difficult schedule down the, down the stretch.
29:28
Nuggets and Thunder were the two toughest remaining strengths of schedules, uh, in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers coming in with the 26th toughest remaining.
29:36
So yeah, I think the Cavs up against the Nuggets, I think that's probably a pretty good bet. I mean, Nuggets still very injured, right? This is a team- Mm-hmm... with Aaron Gordon out, missing pieces.
29:44
We've talked about Jokic kinda slowly rolling back in. So yeah, that one jumped out to me. Um, I would be... Yeah, that one jumped out to me for sure, and then we have a couple other on the other graphic.
29:56
But I think, was there any ones, uh, here, Matt, that you really liked?
29:59
No, I mean, I think some of these other ones are just like, you know, a- again, I don't know if they allow you to parlay these or something or whatever. Yeah.
30:05
But like, you know, you get into Warriors a- against the Hawks, you get Lakers versus the Magic, Celtics versus the Lakers.
30:11
These are like heavy, heavy, heavy favorites, but again, it's like I don't know if you can parlay them together, then these are, these are ones that you feel good about.
30:17
Cavs are only minus 190 over the Celtics, and then the Nuggets are minus 155 against the Knicks.
30:23
But it's huge on the Warriors-Hawks, that's minus 340, it's a minus, minus 1,000 on the Lakers, and then it's minus 425 on the Celtics in a couple of those match-ups.
30:33
I, the ones that I wrote down that I'd kinda pick- Mm... uh, p- it just kinda end up picking on the Nuggets. It's, it's Cavs- Mm... laying 125.
30:40
I thought the Knicks getting plus money against the Nuggets- It's at least interesting... yeah, plus 125 against the Nuggets. I- At the very least is interesting... I thought that one was a little... And then-
30:48
I, I mean, the, the Lakers team that I have not said too many positive things about it. Yeah, the Celtics might get Jayson Tatum back. Man, there's only like 26, 27, 28 games left.
30:58
You're getting three to one on the Lakers? I'm not rushing to make that bet, but that is one if I had to, if I had to in that, it would, it would definitely be taking the plus 310 with the Lakers.
31:07
So let's get into some of these divisions, and I know you started to look into 'em a little bit further. I talked about having the, the Cavs division bet that was in my account.
31:15
By the way, better number now than what I got into the account, so if you wanted to go put that one in there. But what are some of the other ones that you were looking at? Well, I, I wanna start there- Yeah...
31:22
because that was, we, we started ta- talking about that kind of best record after the All-Star break, and we were discussing kind of the different ways- Mm-hmm... we would approach it and where you should maybe start.
31:31
And, uh, I, yeah, I ended up firing on those yesterday. It was the best record after the All-Star break, and as we discussed- Mm-hmm... uh, you know, I think it makes sense then looking at the division too.
31:41
So yeah, I grabbed a little bit of the 10 to one for them in the Central. Look, it is gonna be tough for them, uh, to catch up to the Pistons. This is a short runway.
31:49
You're talking about 40 and 13 is where the Pistons sit at. Best record in the NBA, 34 and 21 is where Cleveland's at. Gonna have to make up some serious ground.
31:58
Seventh toughest schedule remaining for Detroit, 26th toughest remaining for Cleveland. What really...
32:04
We talked about this yesterday, and w- I, what really jumped out to me was the Pistons' just schedule right after the break here.
32:13
Drew brought this up, and I think this is what really pushed me over finally to the division bet- Mm-hmm... to join you, 'cause here's the thing.
32:19
I, I like the best, uh, the best record at post All-Star break bet from just the sche- schedules that are out there. Yeah. I think that's a good bet. Be- I'll bet that heavier.
32:28
Wasn't fully planning on joining you on the division. Drew brought up this Pistons schedule, though. I'm fine. I'm, got in at 10 to one yesterday on the division. Mm-hmm.
32:35
There's always, you can always bet on no price or something later on, or if you wanna flip over to the Pistons, you can. This is a two-team race.
32:42
But the Pistons' schedule out of the break here, they face the Knicks tomorrow night. I already laid the points with the Knicks in that one. Get mind- reminder, they have guys that are suspended- Mm-hmm...
32:50
coming out of the break, too. Okay, then it's against the Bulls, at the Bulls, on Saturday. Monday, they host the Spurs. We- next Wednesday, host the Thunder. Tha- next Friday, host the Cavs. It's at the Magic.
33:03
It's at home against the Cavs. It's home against the Spurs. That is a brutal schedule out of the break. So you're talking eight games there where I think Cleveland can immediately cat, uh, make up some ground here.
33:14
A- and you could revisit these odds in two and a half weeks and see where things are at, but I think 10 to one is a good number to grab.
33:20
Well, and it's like we said, so the Cavs actually get the Pistons twice head-to-head. Mm-hmm. So that's an easy way to shave into the lead right there. Yep. Right? Like, so right off the bat, you get 'em twice.
33:28
And then the fact that the Pistons have one of the more difficult schedules down the stretch as well, I think, again, it's just we play, we play numbers a lot of times, and one in 10 times do the Cavs run them down?
33:38
I absolutely think so. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I do too. Absolutely think so. I, I'll tell you, Matt, the o- the only, [laughs] the only thing left, 'cause we talked through all these markets, right?
33:45
Yesterday, couple, past couple days. Should we be considering, what was it? 500 to one or something- Mm-hmm... the add on the best record?
33:53
It's like, if you're playing these, I mean, if they're gonna run down the Pistons, right? Yeah. It's, okay, then they're gonna be probably a top three, top four record in the NBA. Th- right.
34:00
Then why not bet the tail outcome too? Right. Which is them just like- Which we probably should be doing... which is them basically, like, only losing three game, or two or three games G- going nuclear, yeah...
34:07
yeah, yeah, yeah. I, and, I mean, the o- the other team that's obviously in that conversation, it's the well-but, is okay, it's also the Thunder. But, like, we've been documenting Thund- Mm-hmm... Thunder struggles.
34:17
Like, I... And they have one of the toughest schedules remaining. I, I don't- They don't-... don't think it's out of the possibility...
34:22
they don't look, they don't look absolutely bulletproof like they did at the beginning of the year. Correct. Yeah. They don't. It's basically what it comes down to. They don't.
34:28
And the other one that's, like, I've brought up a couple times, Southeast Division's, uh, gonna be fun, or I don't know what the right word is to use, uh, to describe the Southeast Division is anymore.
34:36
Like, I wanna say fun, 'cause it's, like, I love betting the NBA, but it's just a mess as usual. We've got four crappy teams that all four of them could possibly win the division.
34:46
It's gonna likely be your f- entire play in field. I still think Hornets four to one is, uh, it's the only bet you can make right now. It's the only team you have any trust in.
34:54
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35:04
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35:09
[upbeat music] A numbers game on BSIN, the sports betting network.
35:28
BSIN, the sports betting network, as we watch Czechia continue to hold, hold their lead here. Got, you got me excited for a sec. Thought you were gonna say another goal. No, I mean, this is... Well, no, this is exciting.
35:40
They were, I mean, Kelly, they were, they were three and a half on the, on the puck line. All right, five min- They were leading... five minutes into the second period. Yeah. Canada still a minus 298 live favorite.
35:51
I mean, I, we, we obviously can't watch this closely. There might be tons of, of danger opportunities that are happening here that we don't know about, but I, I, I mean- I saw one-...
36:00
the scoreboard's a scoreboard's a scoreboard. I saw one near Canada goal, uh, before we were coming back here from break, but yeah, you're right. We're, we, we are not watching. When they're- Let's, let's go Czechia...
36:10
they're 13 shots a piece right now, and I know the quality of every shot is not the same, but they're 13 shots a piece right now. Czechia, just gotta keep it within four, baby.
36:20
If I just start going with Czechia Republic, you think I'm causing more problems or less problems? Probably more problems. Probably more. [laughs] Probably more.
36:27
I don't know, I don't know why it's listed that way in multiple, multiple sports books. I don't know either. I don't have any clue. It's different. Guys, if you haven't checked out Sharp Plays, been around since 2011.
36:35
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36:46
Trusted by the pros, monitored by the books. Visit sharpplays.com So Kelly Bidlin, this is a, a division that is going to have a lot of debate over the off-season. Oh, yeah.
36:58
The NFC North, in which the Lions are your favorite as we sit today here on February the 18th, at plus 160 to win the division. The Packers are plus 185. Plus 350 on the Bears,
37:16
and then the seven to one there attached to the Vikings.
37:19
Now, the Vikings, I think, are the rightful fourth place team here in this division, given the fact that we don't really know what's going on at the quarterback position. J.J. McCarthy is still in town.
37:30
It's not like they've released him or traded him or anything, but, you know, w- the body of work we have gotten has been spotty at best, and if you wanted to really just kinda call a spade a spade, it's been, it's been more bad than good.
37:40
Yeah. And so I get them being where they are. The number, obviously, and we'll talk about the top two teams in a second, the number that jumps off the page is the Bears at plus 350.
37:49
I cannot believe that they are that big of a dog to the Lions and Packers, both of whom still have question marks, I might add. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Whereas the Bears, in my opinion, don't have a ton of question marks.
38:02
Now, you're gonna scream right now at me if you hate Caleb Williams. "The question mark is Caleb Williams." Okay, well, that's your opinion.
38:08
In my opinion, from what I saw and s- certainly from the statistics that we have coming out of this season, Caleb Williams made a giant leap- Mm-hmm... last year.
38:16
And this will be the first full season under Ben Johnson, who has a whole off-season to look at what worked, what didn't, what do we need to try, what do we need to abandon. All these different things like that, Kelly.
38:27
Like, the 350 to me, I don't usually lock money up for as long as we're... I, I bet the Bears in this division. Nice. Okay, I like it. I, I do not lock money.
38:36
I think that this is the most likely number to look drastically different by the time we kick next year. I think that they are gonna be way closer to these other two teams.
38:46
Yeah, this is, uh, I have a feeling this is one I will be joining you on. Yeah. I will ta- I'll, I'll take my time though here. I wanna, I wanna see some of the moves that we get, uh, made during the off-season.
38:56
I, I, I think the Ca- the Caleb Williams part though of that conversation, right, it's, it...
39:02
The pushback on that is you can think whatever you wanna think about Caleb Williams, but when you add Ben Johnson and you add to the offensive line like they did a year ago and you just get- Mm-hmm...
39:10
fast improvement out of p- play out of the line, and then the play calling, oh, that's gonna help Caleb. And I thought, man, I thought he looked very special at times la- Mm-hmm... uh, last year. So yeah, this is one
39:23
I will probably be joining you on. I'm v- very interested though to see what schedules look like, to, to see what some of the moves that happened. Like you said, there are some weaknesses on these teams. I'm not scared.
39:35
I'm not scared about going up against the Packers. To me, Packers were one of the more disappointing te- Mm... teams last year, right? It, they are, w- they're g- like, their stats say they have a high floor, right?
39:45
They're a high floor team. Mm-hmm. A- and they better be, 'cause there's enough talent on that team.
39:49
There's enough talent on that team that they were one of the biggest underperformers, kinda, to me, all season last year.
39:54
I just expected them to be more dominant, especially at times when it felt like the NFC and the division and things were opening up for them to kinda, uh, make, take a stranglehold, and just couldn't do it really at any point.
40:05
I know they dealt with some injuries throughout the years. Obviously they, they were a different team after Micah went out. Um, they are, they're, I'm not concerned about.
40:14
I wanna see what this Lions schedule looks like, Matt.
40:16
Like, is it gonna be so, so light, you know, that it's, i- i- maybe it, maybe it keeps me off the Bears in the division and I'm just looking at them over on their win total.
40:26
Having said all that though, yes, I think Bears, whether it's over win total, division play, probably one that I will be joining you on. And the Vikings. Man, this is another one, another one two days in a row.
40:36
I'm just surprised their number is as short as it is, right? Just we talked about the Titans yesterday. Mm. I was still surprised that one was as short, as short as it is.
40:45
And it's not so much they've got a quarterback problem. I got a lot of respect for that Vikings coaching staff, uh, a- and I think there's still some quality pieces on this team.
40:53
But, ah, these are three really good teams ahead of them, uh, in the division. So I, I'm a little surprised that number is not longer than seven to one. So the reason I'm not scared about, um,
41:06
the Bears and then the Bears having a first place schedule is their division is the NFC South and the AFC East. And so while you'll get a- Ooh... so while you'll get a Patriots Bills, you also get Dolphins Jets. Yeah.
41:19
And then you get the whole NFC South. So I mean, i- I'm not worried about the first place. L- and honestly, I'm not worried about the first place schedule there from, from this team.
41:29
And, and honestly, you look around, offensive line, super solid. Between Moore, Burton, and Odunze, your wide receiver room is set. You drafted Colston Loveland, who had a great rookie season.
41:40
Really you just, you just get to focus on the defense a little bit more in the off-season- Mm-hmm... is what you get to do. You get to... They need a pass rusher badly.
41:49
And, and so that is, that was the, where they really, really, where they really, really struggled was generating consistent pressure.
41:55
If they can go out and get a pass rusher and then maybe add one more guy in the secondary, again, from that point on, everything else is luxury, I think, for, for, in, in depth for this Bears team.
42:05
And so again, I am, I'm definitely, definitely in on them. I couldn't agree more about everything you said about the Packers. Uh, like it's just...
42:13
We, you wanna have questions about Caleb W- like who, who is Jordan Love? Yeah. Tell me who Jordan Love is, man. Right. Yeah, totally. 100%. 100%. Like yeah, do we see flashes of greatness? For sure.
42:24
Do we also see times where you're shaking your head going, "What are you doing?" Absolutely. I mean, th- this was the team this year of what... It was what, the Ravens two years ago, where it just...
42:33
I, I, I got it, I got it 'cause the talent was there. Mm. But whether it was oddsmakers or, I mean, guys that we know that make, that are making their own power ratings, it was just...
42:42
I mean, how long, how many times did you hear through, we could be like week nine into the season, "Packers, top two, top three team- Mm-hmm... in my power ratings"?
42:49
That was a pretty consensus from a lot of the respected NFL bettors that I know. Okay, if you're telling me it's that, that high-... the outcome's gotta be better. I'm w- and I'm with you on Love.
42:59
Love can look awesome and he can look like a very shaky, mediocre quarterback at times. Yeah. And, and that's, to, to me, I'm just like,
43:08
that doesn't, that is not what makes, that is not what makes a team great to me, and certainly not a team that is plus 185 over a team that's plus 350, which I don't have a very big difference in the two teams at all.
43:19
I'm not, I'm not gonna say this with a ton of confidence- Yeah... but I have a feeling that Caleb Williams is the best quarterback in this division. At this point, because Goff is now old- Yeah... and Goff can't move.
43:30
That's another thing that we are just seeing more and more and more in the NFL, is just, you know, Drake May- He's a system quarterback... as good as Drake May- Systems can be good.
43:40
There's- Like, like Drake May definitely-... any day conversation... like Drake May definitely threw, uh, uh, throws a great deep ball. There's no doubt about that.
43:46
We have the advanced statistics that, that show us that. But Drake May picked up so many third down conversions with his legs- It's huge. Yeah, it's huge...
43:55
and was able to go, and on plays that broke down, make a first and 10 a second and six instead of a sack and ma- and it's not second and 14 anymore and all of that. Having mobility has just become such a massive thing.
44:09
When, when every single defensive end now runs a 4-4-5 and all these things, like being able to do anything to keep the play alive or to make it to where it's not a complete and utter disaster.
44:21
And so yeah, I mean, Goff is, Goff is certainly limited from that aspect, there's no doubt about it.
44:27
And, and then honestly, you look on the defensive side of the ball for, for the Lions as well, I do not think that this is a team that you sit there and you look and just no matter what you go like, "Oh yeah, that defense is definitely gonna be- Oh, totally.
44:39
Yeah... like a lockdown defense." I mean, there- Well, like as you noted-... there are question marks at every level. There's question marks on the defensive line. Yeah. There's question marks at corner.
44:45
There's question marks at linebacker position. Yeah. As you noted though, I th- I, I think, I think Bears are... I, I th- th- those defenses are comparable. [laughs] They, they both got, they got- Yeah...
44:54
both got issues to figure out this off-season. So yeah. I will like, I will be probab- I will be on pro Bears bets. I don't know how yet, though. I'm going to wait, give it a little bit of time.
45:03
This is, just the teams that you walk away from the season- Mm-hmm... most impressed by. I mean s- Yeah... okay, Seattle's one. They, y- they're number one. Obviously, yes. O- obviously.
45:13
For winning a Super Bowl, what you thought, what I thought of them, where they were gonna be at pre-season in a very tough division and where they finished, i- incredibly impressive.
45:22
I, number two, n- I mean, it's probably the Bears to me, coming out of last season. Mm-hmm. Of what, what I took away positives and heading into next season, Jags are up there on that list.
45:32
Kinda we hit on them yesterday, right? I've got a completely different view of what the Jacksonville Jaguars are now than I wa- did a year ago. Um, so yeah.
45:40
I just think interesting things to talk about here as we, uh, head out of one, one season into the other. Trying to find the exact... You can just name the finalists, you know? Like, what's a, what's a Jags-Bears?
45:52
How about 160 to 1 just for them to meet in the Super Bowl? Yeah. 160 to 1 just for the Jags and the Bears to meet- Damn, match up. Yeah... in the Super Bowl. Am I adding another bet? Woo. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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