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Feb 19, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 19, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | February 19, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour two of a numbers game, taking you through this Wednesday morning, February 19th, alongside Kelly Bidlin.
0:16
I'm Joe Serallo, and I'm excited to take things back over to our progressive guest line here as we welcome in VSiN's own, you catch him daily, almost daily, JVT, on VSiN Prime Time.
0:27
I, I could never keep up with the schedule with the, the little three-man rotation you, uh, you, Tim, and Matt have going on there. But man, welcome to the show. Appreciate you hopping on. The little three-man rotation.
0:37
Appreciate that. [laughs] Uh, yes, I am on- Go tell Tim I said that [laughs]... pretty much daily. Uh, the only day I'm not on is Thursday, correct. Okay. So, so a, a staple in your VSiN Prime Time viewing.
0:48
Uh, JVT, lot college hoops action tonight. Obviously, the NBA second half does tip off.
0:53
Uh, we'll, we'll call it the, uh, the diet tip-off, the tip-off light with one game, and then really gets, uh, jam-packed, that NBA slate tomorrow.
1:01
Starting in college though, the SEC game I feel like everyone's talking about is Alabama, Missouri, rightfully so, but there's a lot of other action in that conference going on tonight. Which game do you have circled?
1:12
Yeah. I think Kentucky and Vandy's obviously pretty fascinating here. Uh, we're looking at only about four and a half in favor of Kentucky. We know that Lamont Butler is still hurt.
1:20
We know that Jaxson Robinson is still hurt. Both are not gonna play here in this game. Um, but yeah, I, I feel like we're getting kind of cheap here on Kentucky, especially when you're talking about four and a half, Joe.
1:29
Like, um, I don't think it's a surprise that Kentucky is injured. We knew that this was going to happen coming into this game.
1:35
But markets come down from five and a half, six in some spots, as low as four and a half, as I mentioned. It's really painted across the board. I know DK's, uh, starting to dip as well.
1:43
Uh, I, I think that this is one where maybe you sit back and, and see how cheap this gets, but if this gets a little bit lower...
1:50
Look, even with the two injuries, I would say Kentucky still rates as a better team than Vanderbilt.
1:54
And the number right now would tell you maybe there's a point difference depending on what you rate home court here for, uh, Rupp Arena at this point right now.
2:00
So, I- I'm gonna be monitoring this to see if this gets a little bit lower. But Kentucky, even with the injuries, I think, should definitely be on the viewpoint here. We know what Vandy is. We've seen them at home.
2:10
They have had some pretty good moments. But again, from a ratings standpoint, this really sticks out to me that this is getting cheap with Kentucky, even with the injuries.
2:17
So I will be, uh, monitoring to see if this gets to that four, three and a half mark. And if we get to three and a half, I'll be on Kentucky. John, you're one of the, uh, network's Mountain West Conference experts.
2:26
Uh, where are you looking at there tonight? So there's two games that are worth mentioning here. Uh, the first, uh, 737, 738, to give Matt Humans the right to the rotation. You know, you gotta find it.
2:35
Um- [laughs] You and Jim Rome today, making the fans happy. Uh, yeah, of course, you gotta do it.
2:40
Um, San Jose State's on the road against Utah State, and they're catching 19 and a half now at some spots against the Aggies. And look, San Jose State is very injured.
2:48
Their top two scorers have been, uh, missing the last two contests, so it's been a little bit of an issue.
2:52
But guys, if you remember against Nevada, uh, without their top two scorers, they pushed Nevada in the first half, let go of the rope in the second half, ended up getting smoked by the Wolf Pack, but I think they were, uh, trailing or leading by two at the break on Friday night against the Wolf Pack here.
3:05
Yep. Uh, and then, of course, without their top two scorers, uh, pushed San Diego State to the brink. So now we're up to 19 here against Utah State. I...
3:13
And we don't know whether or not these guys are gonna be available tonight, but I feel like, again, San Jose State, at the very least, you might be able to look at this team in the first half and get a pretty good effort from this squad.
3:22
They're very well-coached. Tim Miles is an awesome head coach. He's done a great job with a team that doesn't really have that much. They're the best cover team in the country.
3:29
As you see there, right, they're 18, six and one, and part of that is the way that they are coached and their scheme. So I really do like the San Jose State squad.
3:36
I wanna see where this gets to and monitor the injury report to see whether or not you're gonna get Adujue out there for sure, uh, as well as, uh, his teammate.
3:42
So I think that this is definitely worth looking at here, San Jose State against Utah State. It's such a big number. Will McClendon, the other name, uh, that you should monitor.
3:49
And then really quickly, I'm gonna bring this up 'cause I'm on with Mitch today on Follow the Money, filling in for Paulie. Uh, New Mexico and Boise State.
3:56
Boise State's now a four and a half point favorite, total of 152 and a half. Again, if we go by pure market, like, "Hey, where do you rate these two teams on a neutral?"
4:04
I would say this number is a little out of whack because this would tell you that Boise State's rated slightly better on a neutral court. I don't believe that to be the case. I love this New Mexico team.
4:13
They've been running very hot. Although the last two games they've needed comebacks against Wyoming and Utah State to get it done.
4:19
But situationally, and this is, I think, the interesting aspect, it makes much more sense to play Boise. New Mexico has been running hot.
4:26
Boise's playing their first home game in two weeks, have not been playing particularly well, coming off of a beat down at the hands of San Diego State on the road against the Aztecs.
4:34
They're a much better home team than they are on the road. And I think the market's overvaluing the situation.
4:40
And we have so many different spots throughout the year, guys, where the market has been too heavy on these situational spots. Last night's a good example.
4:47
You know Villanova got up to a 10-point underdog at one point yesterday? Yeah. Yeah. They closed about eight and a half. Never really got into it.
4:53
You never really were threatened until that final possession, uh, in terms of not covering that number.
4:58
And I think this is one of those, again, where as much as I love this, uh, Boise State spot, I thought this was gonna be more like two and a half, and we're up to f- four and a half in some spots.
5:06
And it'd be very much maybe trying to push against the grain here, despite the negative situational spot for the Lobos. Yeah, I thought this would be closer to a pick 'em too.
5:13
How about the job, uh, the other Pitino is doing at New Mexico this year? St. John's and New Mexico, both Pitino-led squads, both 22 and 4 this season.
5:21
That'll be a good story to see come March if, uh, maybe they get placed in the same quadrant of the bracket. JVT, before we hit the NBA, one last game I wanted to get your thoughts on. Alabama, Missouri.
5:33
Saw last night, 'Bama was favored by a point, point and a half in some shops, now pretty much universally catching one and a half coming off the loss against Auburn.
5:40
They are three and 0 against the number after a loss this year. What are your thoughts about this game?
5:46
You know, I really like this Missouri squad a lot, and I think they deserve a little bit more respect here at home, Joe. And, and like, uh, look, I think Alabama is a very good team obviously.
5:54
They've been treating teams relatively well. I think though we saw some of the flaws for this team defensively when you looked at that Auburn game over the weekend. In SEC play, they're ninth in defensive efficiency.
6:03
They're giving up about 106.7 points per 100 possessions.
6:06
I think they have some flaws on that end that can be exposed against some high-end offensive teams, and you're getting that here with Missouri, a team that is top 10-ish, uh, when you talk about offensive rating in the country, a team that can spread the floor, shoot the ball extremely well, moves the ball around too.
6:20
I, I really like what Missouri brings to the table, and I do think that you deserve a little bit more respect here at home.
6:26
And I would say this too, again, talking about these situations, I mean, I wouldn't want to just blindly bet Alabama here on the bounce back, and I think that was initially rated here into this number.
6:35
I think the market's getting this right and pushing this back down. And I know it's only Georgia, but I was really impressed with Missouri over the weekend. It was a three-point deficit for them at the half.
6:43
They smoked the Bulldogs in the second half on the road. This is a team that I think is formidable.
6:47
I think you can argue they're the third-best team here in the SEC, and that desains- uh, demands a little bit more respect.
6:52
And for Alabama, I think big picture too, uh, just really quickly, um, this stretch that they're gonna go on, very big in determining what this one seed's gonna be for them.
7:00
They were like -350 the other day to get a one seed, but I would be very much looking at Houston to maybe kinda snatch that from them down the stretch, 'cause their schedule, Missouri, Kentucky, Miss State, uh, which by the way, big win for them yesterday, looked very formidable, Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn, it's gonna be a gauntlet for them to end the year, and I, I think that you could get them to slip from that one seed status.
7:19
John, NBA back in action tonight. I've added a couple things over the break. Any, uh, futures bets or win totals or awards or anything like that that you've bet here over the past week? No.
7:29
So I, I did bet that there's not really much that I bet from a futures perspective, Kelly. I have this win total contest that I have entered out here in Las Vegas, and you're in it too. Yeah.
7:37
So I'm very, yeah, so I'm, I'm very much like- I gotta check you on that. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. So, uh, dude, I have like a spreadsheet that's like got all the win totals. I'm tracking them all and everything like that.
7:44
Um, but like I'm very much invested.
7:46
And then the win totals that I've actually got that are gonna be really sweats, but I will say this, 'cause I heard you the other day, and I do think that it's very much worth looking at, um, Toronto.
7:55
I completely agree with what you were talking about the other day. They're a team that I think wants to win, that is going to push the pedal on this. They're not gonna be one like Philly that I think now is going to...
8:04
You know, I keep saying get bleep or get off the pot when it comes to this top six protected pick. I think it's time that they're, I think they're gonna bleep, right?
8:09
I think they're gonna crap it, and they're gonna go down to the tank and, and willingly try to get this top six protected selection while Toronto's gonna make this push. And I would very much think they agree with you.
8:19
Over on a win total, I think it's a sneaky, now it's gonna be a s- like, it's gonna have to be a grind here, Kelly. But if we're right about Philly, and Chicago is terrible- Yeah...
8:27
you could find Toronto at like 12 to 1 to participate in the Eastern Conference play-in. I think that's gonna be an interesting sweat down the stretch, 'cause I think they're gonna try to push for that.
8:35
And if Ingram comes back at some point, they can absolutely, and I think absolutely push for it. So I think Toronto's there. And I'll mention this really quickly. I brought this up to Paul too.
8:43
I have Atlanta to make the playoffs at about two to one from a couple of months ago. They're playing much better. I would also very much recommend five or six to one to win the Southeast Division. That division sucks.
8:55
They are all within a half game of each other, and yet it is Orlando who is the favorite. It is Miami who is above them too. They're near picks to win that division.
9:03
And then here you have Atlanta in much better competitive form down the stretch into the All-Star break.
9:08
I think that when you look at three teams all within a half game of each other, I'll take the team that has been playing a little bit more competitive basketball heading into the All-Star break at six to one when I don't think there's that much separating those three in that division.
9:19
Yeah, this guy next to me has been trying to talk me into that bet for a week now it seems like. [laughs] All week. I mean, yeah, you got plus 105.
9:25
I mean, the last I saw on DraftKings, Orlando plus 105, Miami plus 160, Atlanta, uh, like nine to two. I, I mean, you know, you gotta, you gotta go for it.
9:33
Yeah, and I, I did add, I added yesterday Raptors, uh, I went back to bed again after the show, and that number had run out already. So I did add- Yeah...
9:41
30-plus wins at plus, I think it was like three to one, something like that. Yeah. I'm with you though. Like I, I got close to the play-in tournament price. I can't, I can't bash anybody who wants to go there with that.
9:52
Um, game's going. We got the Lakers and Hornets in action tonight, and then big slate tomorrow. Any bets that you've made so far either tonight or looking ahead to tomorrow?
10:00
I mean, I haven't made this yet, 'cause I'm gonna monitor the injury report. Uh, and we know that LeBron got everybody mad because he didn't participate in the All-Star game.
10:07
Um, but I, I think that, look, Charlotte, um, I might regret this, but I think that this ra- this Lakers team is gonna be pretty bad on defense. I think we've seen- Yeah...
10:16
examples of that in the two games right before the All-Star break, right? Utah in the first match-up out in LA ends up getting over their team total there.
10:22
In the second half has an offensive rating of 118, and then in the rematch in Utah right before the break, they absolutely smoke them, drop 130, offensive rating of about a 132 or something like that.
10:31
I think that this is going to be a problem for LA, and so I don't know if I trust them laying these big numbers, even against lesser opponents like Charlotte. Charlotte too got a positive injury report.
10:41
Looks like LaMelo Ball is gonna be out there. Mark Williams, despite the fact that the Charlotte Hornets don't want him, is going to be available as well.
10:47
[laughs] Uh, and there's no real d- like threat at center that is going to tear him up like Anthony Davis did.
10:52
If you remember, what was it, two or three weeks ago when Anthony Davis ripped them a new one, and then the Charlotte Hornets had to come back, sneak inside of that number.
10:58
I think this team could be pretty competitive here. So a 12 seems like a big number, but again, I would sit back and wait.
11:03
If LeBron's gonna get upgraded, then you can sit there and grab maybe 13 by the time this thing, uh, gets to that point where we're gonna get the tip-off. But I think the Hornets are gonna be pretty live here tonight.
11:12
JBT, real quick, like 15 seconds or less. Phoenix, their live total is 40 and a half wins. They'd have to go fi- uh, 15 and 13 to go over that. Do you stay under? Kelly and I are both into that under.
11:23
Uh, I mean, they've, they've burned me already. I have them to win 55-plus games, so I'm gonna say under. I hate them. [laughs] Oh, wow. [laughs] JBT, great stuff, man. Really appreciate you hopping on.
11:32
Good to talk to you guys. Thanks. Make sure you catch him today on Follow The Money coming up at, uh, what is that, 1, 1 Pacific, 4 Eastern. More NBA Western Conference win total talk on the other side.
11:44
He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Cirullo. It's a numbers game. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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12:39
You know, Kelly, I'm, I'm curious, as The Numbers Game continues alongside Kelly Bedell and Joe Serallo here, what was your first Fremont Street experience like? I mean, you've been here- Oh, man, that's a-...
12:49
quite some time now, right? Yeah, that's a good question, 'cause it was before I ever lived out here, so I, I definitely don't remember it. Um- Oh, you'd been to Fremont Street before- Yeah, yeah... before this job?
12:59
Yeah, before I moved here. Yeah. I'd never came. So I'd only been to Vegas twice before working for VSiN, and then, you know, it'd been the Strip each time.
13:08
I'd never been to Fremont Street until I started here when I started part-time last April.
13:12
Yeah, I'll tell you, man, for, for people that still come to town and wonder about it, maybe, maybe they're, yeah, maybe you come, like Joe, like, where you're not, you're coming in to go into the Strip all the time and that's all you're seeing.
13:21
You're not going downtown. Check out Fremont. I mean, especially if you're, especially if you're coming into town to have a good time, maybe have a few cocktails.
13:28
Uh, believe me, every time I have friends visit, Joe, it's, uh, stay on the Strip, gamble way too much, spend way too much. "Oh, no, I'm broke by, like, my last final days."
13:39
And then it's come down here on Fremont on Friday or Saturday night, and get the, uh, you know, like, 40-ounce cocktails that they're go- that they're giving out outside.
13:48
You know, like, I don't know what it is, like a quadruple shot- Right... or whatever, and you spent, like, half as much as you did on the Strip. As you would on the Strip.
13:54
Yeah, it's just- Yeah, the Strip to me, I don't know, I feel like the Strip's, uh, quite a bit overrated. Yeah, I mean, like, look, it's, it's, it's great hotels, amazing restaurants. Yeah.
14:02
But yeah, the, it's a party on Fremont. Friday, Saturday night you cannot go wrong with the party out on Fremont Street. And I'm a, I'm a big live music guy. Yeah, and that's fun.
14:10
So as, as long as you can look- Yes, me too... past, you know, the nun who's got the strategically placed cutout holes and the pasties on, I, I will say, the live music element to Fremont Street is fantastic.
14:19
There's always- It really is... three free concerts going on- Yep... at any time.
14:23
Yeah, I believe the way that works too is i- all the downtown, uh, hotel and casino owners kind of pitch in to, like, to get that, to help draw- Yeah... people down here, which is really cool. It's amazing.
14:32
Because, you know, I mean, you don't see- Every night... the Strip hotels not working with each other, that's for sure. [laughs] Yeah, and there's not a lot of free entertainment. Right, exactly. [laughs] You know?
14:38
Every night you got three free concerts. It's a good deal. Uh, Kelly, let, let's swing back into these Western Conference win totals, because you had quite a few on your radar. Mm-hmm.
14:46
I believe we only got to, what did we get to? The Lakers and then Phoenix briefly. JVT was pretty funny talking about Phoenix, uh, and, and how they- Well, he- They burned a lot of people.
14:54
I, I thought Phoenix would win the division preseason. JVT and Zach Cohen were both big on that, and I'm not the biggest NBA guy, so I, I kinda listened to them, did my own research after.
15:03
It confirmed what they were saying, and I think a lot of people went that route. Yeah, they're, I guess, a slightly more toast than me with the, with, with Phoenix than I am with Milwaukee.
15:12
But if you heard what JVT said at the end there, he would, he does lean to the under with us at the current number. Yeah. Um, and that's kinda me with Milwaukee. Like, I brought the Bucs up yesterday.
15:20
If current win total, win total numbers, where would I kinda look to? They, they were probably the second most attractive one in the East to me, was to play the under.
15:27
But I've got an over 48 and a half that I'm sweating out for preseason. So- Right... I'm not gonna go bet, make a bet where I might end up middling myself 'cause there's potential to lose both of those bets.
15:36
So what's their live total, 46 and a half? Something like that, it's like- So with your luck they'd finish 47 and 35. [laughs] Exactly, exactly. And that is not something I'm looking to get into, uh, uh, Joe.
15:45
So yeah, I'll just be rooting on Milwaukee. But yeah, as far as the other Western Conference teams that did stick out to me, Minnesota, I'll start there. I'm gonna save my favorite for last.
15:54
Uh, Minnesota over 46 and a half. This is a tough one. Th- th- this team I've been trying to, I, I, I don't, I, I've bounced back and forth kinda all season, Joe, of whether I'm kinda high on this team, low on this team.
16:05
I didn't, I didn't like the Cat trade. I know that's kinda easy to say now. Uh, but I didn't like it when it happened.
16:11
And then DiVincenzo got hurt, and you take another shooter out of the lineup that they were already struggling to find help from b- uh, from beyond the arc, and, and losing him was big.
16:20
He wouldn't have that, a- as great of a season as we're used to from him anyways to start. You lost him. You lost Julius Randle out.
16:26
Now, they will be getting these guys back some, at some point during the regular season. I'd like to say in the next couple weeks, but we don't really know for sure, uh, um, either.
16:36
We're supposed to get updates here outside, out of the All-Star break, and this is usually what happens.
16:40
Teams go into the All-Star break a little bit murkier with some of their injury information, and then you get kind of a clearer idea, uh, once we get out of it.
16:47
But they'll be co- uh, they, they need to go over 46 and a h- uh, over 45 and a half to shop around. You find 45 and a half. This is another one.
16:54
Uh, I liked it at 46 and a half, shopped around, found it for, at 45 and a half. You gotta get 16 wins in your final 26 games to go over that mark. They will be getting DiVincenzo and Randle back at some point.
17:05
Uh, they have the 26th toughest remaining sched- uh, strength of schedule, so it's not all that tough what they've got left.
17:12
I think this team is a little bit better than what we've seen out of them this season, and I think once they get these reinforcement backs, uh, reinforcements back, we're gonna see that play out on the court.
17:22
So it would be an over on the Timberwolves for me. That was one that stuck out for me, over the 45 and a half.
17:27
How concerned are you, and we talk about this a lot with Phoenix, for example, and you and I are both on the live under 44, or 40 and a half, excuse me.
17:34
They go 14 and 14 the rest of the way, and, uh, and that would land them on 40. So essentially Phoenix to play 500 or worse. We talk about Phoenix's chemistry issues, right? Durant, Beal.
17:45
How concerned are you, 'cause you referenced that trade, about the chemistry in Minnesota? 'Cause the talent is there- Yeah... but these guys, you know, uh, when the trade was made, and look, I'm a Knicks fan, right?
17:54
I actually wasn't thrilled because of the, the chemistry element. I love Dante DiVincenzo, part of that Villanova crew with the Knicks. I loved Jules Randle and how tough he is and his style of play.
18:04
I, I was down on the trade. Now, in hindsight, I mean, it was an incredible trade for the Knicks.
18:08
But, uh, what are your thoughts on the chemistry in Minnesota and, and that being why they're not reaching their full potential? Yeah, I, I think you're spot on with it. There, there's some issues there.
18:16
They're still trying to figure out how exactly these guys are gonna play together. I think Randle was always gonna be a concern of how he would fit.
18:21
I mean, we saw Karl-Anthony Ta- Towns' game develop, uh, over the past couple of years with Anthony Edwards in there and him really buy into being this best big, uh, shooting big in the l- in the league.
18:32
And i- that's really what he became, uh, in the last couple years.
18:35
And for a guy to play with a guy like Anthony Edwards, and if you're gonna have Rudy Gobert on the court, uh, it's just you gotta have guys that give you space and let Anthony Edwards operate, uh, in the paint, get to the basket.
18:45
A- and that's a little bit more questionable when you have Julius Randle. And I don't... I mean, Joe, to answer your question, I don't really know that we've seen the, seen the answer to that one way or the other.
18:54
But if any, any... If anything, it's been the early returns are negative on what it looks like with all those guys out there. But I do think DiVincenzo being out has been, uh, i- is a big part of it, too.
19:04
So getting both those guys back, you have the stretch run of the regular season to figure it all out. You know you're gonna be a playoff team anyways.
19:10
The Western Conference standies, uh, standings are all crazy bunched up right now. So I...
19:15
No major concern right now, I think, if you're a Timberwolves fan or, or long-term backer, but it is gonna be really interesting to, to see this rest of this regular season how this team looks.
19:23
Yeah, Minnesota currently 31 and 25, sitting there in that seven seed. If, if you had to guess today, would you say that they end up in the play-in or they end up safely in the top six?
19:33
I'm gonna say, uh, end up safely in the top six. Yeah, I, I'm with you. I think we just disagree over who they might jump. Uh, it seems like you think the Lakers. I'm leaning towards the Clippers, uh, in that respect.
19:45
All right, how about your favorite of these plays? This is feeling like a Raptor-ish type of bet to me here. A team that, what have they won, nine out of 10 going into the All-Star break? No expectations.
19:55
You look at the roster, there's a lot of who, uh- Yeah... going through that roster.
19:59
But yet, somehow, they're winning games and they're, uh, they're not tanking in a year when a lot of people thought they would and that they should.
20:05
Yeah, one of the teams that I looked at early on in the season, one of the worst teams, uh, in the NBA was the Portland Trail Bl- Blazers. You look f- since Christmas, middle of the pack, Joe.
20:14
They're, you're talking about a Portland team since Christmas that is, where I just had it, 14 and 12, 15th best net rating in that time, so really dead middle of the pack in the NBA.
20:23
Have stru- struggled a little bit in that final week or two, uh, before the All-Star break, but we really saw them on a hot streak for a while. I...
20:31
Look, it is- Right, they, they lost three in a row going into the break. Right, yeah, before that. Prior to that, they had won nine out of 10. Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
20:36
So, um, you're looking at a team, you're finding a win total at [laughs] 30 and a half. And it's, you're right, this is feeling very Raptor-ish from yesterday.
20:44
The only difference here is that they, they did recently suffer a pretty big injury, and that is Deandre Ayton going out of the lineup for Portland. I don't think he's gonna be back, uh, anytime t- soon.
20:54
But this team's sta- uh, in the standings right now, 23 and 32 is their record. So you're looking at 30 and a half. All you need is eight wins to go over that mark in their remaining 27 games.
21:05
And y- uh, they're kind of middle of the pack if you look remaining strength to schedule, all that.
21:09
But, uh, y- with how this team has been playing over, their overall arc since the, you know, since Christmas, since the beginning of the year, uh, it's been trending upwards, and they have enough depth that...
21:20
I mean, look, Deandre Ayton is not who Deandre Ayton was when he, uh, was on the Suns team that made it to the NBA finals. He's still having a good year. It sucks that he's out of the lineup.
21:28
This would probably be a play for me if he was still gonna be in there. But they still have enough depth and enough pieces on this team, Joe, that, that... And Scoot Henderson's coming along.
21:36
Some of these younger guys are coming along. I believe in them. And just to ask for eight wins in your final 27 games, I, I'm on board here. This is my favorite in the West. It is the Trail Blazers over 30 and a half.
21:46
Yeah. I, I, I mean, I like this one. Like you said, eight wins in their last, uh, how many games? 27? Yep. I, I, I think that that's a really, uh, really doable proposition for this Portland team.
21:56
I like the Raptors play, I like the Portland play in terms of overs, Phoenix in terms of unders. Final 30 seconds. If you're gonna take an over with a top two seed, which do you like more? Thunder, Celtics?
22:08
That's a great question. Um, I'll go Thunder, but I like both of them, actually. Okay. Yeah, I mean, I like both, too. You know, I think this is a case where the market, and it's why, you know, I didn't shy away.
22:19
Those were the two that last year at the All-Star break I went over on their live total, and both got home. A- and I think the market's gonna try to make you say, "Ah, 21 and 6, that's not realistic." Yeah.
22:29
And then, well, Boston went 21 and 6 their last 27 last year. I think both of these teams, uh, will get over their live respective totals this year.
22:39
Gonna talk some NBA awards and college hoops futures up next with Michael Montesano. It's the Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Seralla. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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22:58
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23:11
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23:14
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23:26
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23:37
I'm Joe Seralla taking you through this Wednesday morning, February 19th edition of the program.
23:42
And now, taking you back to our progressive guest line as we get ready to talk some NBA awards, some college hoops futures as well with our friend Michael Montesano. Mike, how you doing today? Thanks for hopping on.
23:54
Th- thanks for having me. Good to be here. Absolutely.
23:56
I wanna look at one particular awards market with you off the bat, because I just don't think it makes a lot of sense to me, especially with all of the drama that has surrounded Jimmy Butler and South Beach this year, and now getting an opportunity to kinda take the reins to this Miami Heat team.
24:12
Let's talk Most Improved Player. It seems like it's a two-man race between Cade Cunningham, -105 on the, on the DraftKings odds board, Norm Powell catching, uh, $1.05.
24:22
And then you look down the list, and there's Tyler Herro all the way at 16 to 1.
24:27
Should he be priced shorter than this, given the fact that he is now, like I said, kinda taking the reins from Jimmy when it comes to this Miami team? He, he definitely should be priced shorter.
24:38
I mean, I think, uh, you know, I think Kelly has mentioned it on the show, I took Herro at 50 to 1 a couple months back, and I think he was the favorite at one point.
24:48
Um, if you're just gonna go l- I, I use three categories, the points per game increase, the PER, which player efficiency rating increase, and the win share increase, to kinda see where everyone is.
24:59
And, you know, you're looking at Cade Cunningham, he's increased 2.7 points per game. Norm Powell has had a tremendous year, 10.3 points per game, and Tyler Herro 3.1.
25:10
Uh, if you look at player efficiency rating, the increase, Cade Cunningham 2.9, Norm Powell 5.5, and Ty- Tyler Herro 3.3.
25:18
But then when we go to the win shares, who's more important to their team, it's Cade Cunningham plus 1.0, Norm Powell plus.7, and Tyler Herro plus 2.6. Wow.
25:30
So I do think if there is i- i- i, and I think that, you know, Herro's usage will increase, uh, over the next couple of months now that Butler is not there. Um, he, he is worth a look at 16 to 1 right now. Yeah.
25:45
But if I ha- if, if I'm gonna give the winner, as of today, the winner is Norm Powell.
25:50
I mean, Norm Powell's gone from 13 points a game to 24 points a game, and I know his role has increased, but he, you know, a few years back, if you look, i- you look back at when he was playing around the same minutes he is this year, I think he had, like, w- one year he was averaging, like, 17 a game.
26:04
So he's really improved his play a lot, and it's tough to overlook in this market, uh, points per game and player efficiency rating. Um, and Cade's already been a great player.
26:15
I mean, I guess we can go back to the Ja Morant thing a couple years ago. But I, I, I would give it, as of today, to Norm Powell, but I think Herro's gonna close that gap as we go on. Yeah, it is interesting, Mike.
26:26
I agree with you.
26:26
If I was jumping in right now, I do think i- if you wanted to bet some Herro at 16 to 1, I, I don't know that he's gonna win it, but I think he gets more into the mix here down the stretch, uh, than the numbers currently indicate.
26:38
The Norm Powell one is fascinating. He's the only guy really I don't have any exposure to on the board. You, you tipped me to Herro the one night we got in the, into that together, uh, at 50 to 1.
26:46
I'm in on Cade Cunningham for pre-season. Norm Powell's the only guy I really don't have anything on. I know Gil does. You do. Uh, should've joined you when you did.
26:54
Uh, I don't know how they're gonna handle his case, just 'cause it's, it's an interesting case that we don't often see. And I'm not saying right, wrong, bad, he should win, shouldn't win.
27:04
It's just he is a guy that was just put in a position of coming off the bench for so long, and now a lot of it is just getting the minutes. And do I, do I, would I have guessed that he would've done it this well?
27:15
And I've been a Norm Powell fan for so long. No, I wouldn't have. But I, I just don't know how voters are gonna handle that. I think it's really interesting.
27:22
Whereas over the past couple years, we have seen how they handle cases like Cade Cunningham's, right?
27:27
Yeah, it's, it's, it's gonna be, it, it, it's gonna be difficult, but I, I think voters are simpletons, and they're just gonna- Yeah...
27:34
kinda go maybe look at that points per game or even pl- I, I think one, you know, status player efficiency rating. And Powell's got a plus 5.5 in player- Yeah... efficiency rating. I mean, he's really improved.
27:44
And like I said, i- a few years ago, he was, if you go back and look at his numbers, he did play, like, 32 minutes a game, and he was averaging, like, 17 points a game.
27:52
So this, this is a, a nice, uh, step up from him, um, not only from those years, but from last year as well. Yeah, 41 starts that year, too.
27:59
I think that is a good year to g- compare it to more recently when he was, he was strategically being brought off the bench. Right. Hey, I think it's a g- great points all around.
28:07
Let's go to defensive player of the year. I know this is one that you've been kinda tracking all year. [laughs] Uh, look, the odds say this is done, Wemby's won it, and it's all over.
28:16
Uh, i- is there a bet here, or sh- or let me phrase it, uh, differently. Should this race be closer than what it is? Y- the race absolutely should be closer than what it is, based on what happened last year.
28:27
Okay, I was on Gil's show last year preaching to the choir about Wemby's on/off splits, uh, Wemby's the best defensive overall player. And everyone kept going back to, "Well, he's not on a top-ranked defense.
28:41
We can't give it to him 'cause he's not on a top-ranked defense." Okay, so we, we fast-forward to this year. He has the same, basically the same counting stats as last year.
28:50
Last year's counting stats were 13.2, and the counting stats are defensive rebounds per game, plus blocks per game, plus steals per game. He's up.9 from last year. His minutes have increased by four.
29:03
Okay, but his team has gotten worse from a month ago. They were 12th in d- team defensive, uh, rating a month ago. Now they're 22nd. His individual defensive efficiency rating is just where it was last year.
29:17
He hasn't gotten any better. His defensive win shares has not gotten any better. His defensive blocks plus/minus has not gotten any better.
29:27
There are players that are above him in all these categories, but now we have ESPN, the voters at ESPN, they're, all they're looking at, "Ah, we're just gonna give it to Wem- Wemby 'cause he has the most blocks," and this, that, and the other.
29:38
And now I have to hear ESPN talking about on/off splits. Well, we, we were talking about on/off splits last year. Yeah.
29:44
So if i- if it didn't matter last year, it shouldn't matter this year, and you have a team in Oklahoma City that has two of the top defensive players in the league, and it's not Lou Dort.
29:54
Lou Dort is not a top defensive player.
29:56
He was given that reign by Chris Mannix and, and, and Doris Burke because he stopped- Uh, um, uh, Brown from Boston and Mitchell from Cleveland, they had two bad games when he covered them for most of the game.
30:10
The top two defensive players in the league are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Williams. If you even wanna go further, we can go to Zubac from, from the Los Angeles Clip- Mm-hmm... Clippers.
30:20
He's having a tremendous year. Alman Thompson having a tremendous year. Victor Wembanyama has the counting stats. He has not made his team better defensively this year, and they're only getting worse.
30:33
I love how adamant you are about the argument. You just mentioned SGA.
30:37
Now, maybe not to the degree of the Defensive Player of the Year market, where Wemby's a minus 2,000 favorite, but S- SGA does have a firm hold on this market for the MVP, minus five bucks. Jokic, plus 350.
30:50
Is that worth, uh, is that worth a bet? Well, after the straw poll that, Ting- Bontemps straw poll that just came out, I don't know if it's worth a bet, but I do... I think, personally, I already...
31:01
I bet him plus 450 a few weeks ago. He's number one in player efficiency rating, and not only is he number one, he's having the greatest, one of the greatest seasons of all time per the PER numbers.
31:12
Go back 15, 20 years, as of today. Now, will that ch- could that change? Obviously, it could. He's number one in win shares. He's number one in win shares per 48 minutes.
31:22
He's number one in box plus-minus, and he's number one in value over replacement. You can go to all those... You can go to Basketball Reference and view all those numbers.
31:31
Shai is number two in all them, but Shai's getting the votes because Shai leads the league in, in, uh, in points per game, and he's got, he's on the best team.
31:42
We always talk about the best team, but the best player is Nikola Jokic, and it's not even close. But unfortunately, I don't think he's gonna win it this year even though I have, I just made a bet on him.
31:53
I think, again, we have the group thinkers. They're all talking about Shai, but if you look at the numbers, all the numbers, Jokic is, is the MVP. But again, this would be four and five years.
32:05
We could have voter fatigue with that. Yeah, I mean, I was gonna say, there's definitely voter fatigue.
32:09
It's amazing to be averaging a triple-double and, and people just, they're like, "Ah, well, that's expected at this point." Yeah. Expected greatness, uh, often goes unnoticed. Final minute here, Michael.
32:18
How about some college hoops futures? What are you into in that market? Yeah. I, I, I have two. To make the Final Four, I mean, I have a, I have a portfolio to, to win national championships.
32:29
No one wants to hear what numbers I got with Alabama and Florida a- and Kentucky. No one wa- you know? So I'm not talking, but I'm gonna say r- as of today, to make the Final Four, Florida plus 165.
32:40
It looks like per Joe Leonardi they're gonna ship them out w- they're gonna ship them out west. If you look at the top four seeds, I like them. Now, a nice underdog, a nice price is Michigan State 10 to 1.
32:52
If they are put in the East with Duke, I think they have an excellent shot. It's i- one of Izzo's best offensive teams he's had in several years, and he, we all know Izzo magic in March.
33:04
He has the defensive rating, and again, it's just to get to the Final Four. They're 10 to 1 a- at DraftKings. I like both of those, uh, uh, numbers today. Wouldn't be the first time Izzo ended Duke's season in March.
33:16
They took down that Zion-led team, of course, uh, some years back. Mike, really appreciate the time. Thanks so much for joining the show. Thanks for having me, guys.
33:25
Michael Montesano with us there talking NBA awards markets and some college hoops Final Four futures as well. We'll get into my college hoops action best bets up next. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Serallo.
33:36
It's the Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
Numbers Game continues, taking you through your Wednesday morning. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Serallo. Kelly, I, uh, I saw you chug, throw back that, uh, the remainder of your coffee there right before we came back.
34:04
Uh, there's still, there's still a nice, uh, cold sip left or something like that, yeah. What's your, uh, what's your typical coffee order? Does it switch? Uh, d- Uh, yes... do you just go with whatever you're feeling?
34:13
It, it switches. This is an Americano today- Wow... is what I'm going with. Yeah, that, that would be my usual enjoyment, just espresso. An Americano, the fancy way of saying espresso with a lot of hot water.
34:21
Yeah, with, uh, hot gross water sometimes. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. You know, a, a bad Americano is, is brutal. A bad Americano is very bad. Reminds me of- A bad, a bad is very- Did you ever...
34:29
I, I know we're slightly different generations here. Did you ever watch Monsters Inc? Whoa. Yeah. Yeah, I've seen Monsters Inc. Okay, phew. Yeah, yeah. You know, I wasn't sure if I was too youngin' for you. Man.
34:37
You know, the same- Wait, Joe's really going off the rails here this last, last break. He's calling out, calling out the crew, demanding a coffee maker in the back.
34:44
Not the co- no, I'm saying the crew deserves an Es- That's not what it sounds like to me, Joe... press- hold on. Okay. I was saying the crew deserves an espresso machine back there, all right?
34:51
We got a lot of people working early mornings, late nights. Yeah. And you know, I just think a TV station, it's like, hey, how is there not an espresso back there?
34:58
Yeah, we got a, such a ginormous, uh, newsroom, but it's so many people operating out of, you know?
35:03
I think an espresso machine would be a, a good thank you to our terrific staff As Brandon pointed out, he's got a, uh, he's got a little, uh, kettle over there that, that goes- The electric kettle...
35:10
over there So that's how I do my coffee. I do the pour over. Okay. Uh, it's a little more time-consuming, but it's the best taste, and I'm a bit of a snob 'cause I drink my coffee black- Hmm... first coffee of the day.
35:20
And then my second coffee, I- I'll, you know, add a little sweetener. But first one of the day- That's actually interesting... is black. Okay.
35:24
So you start bl- you start with bla- just black, and then you'll add some things? 'Cause, 'cause I intermittent fast. Okay. So if you're fasting, you can drink black coffee, no calorie. Right.
35:32
Like, 10 calories, 15 calories. Yeah. I think you gotta stay under 40 is the threshold. So yeah, 32 ounces of water as soon as I wake up, then black coffee, and that's how the day starts. Okay. Don't worry.
35:42
All we got is 10 more minutes, and then we're gonna go out to that, that nice buffet they're throwing just for you, I heard. I know. You know, it's so weird- Da- Derek came to me yesterday.
35:49
He's like, "Don't tell Joe, but the surprise buffet-" This is all about him... yeah, this is all for him. But thank you for waking up at 5:00 AM for two straight weeks. Yeah.
35:55
I'll tell you, this is throwing off my whole fasting thing, doing the morning show, because we leave here and it's like, "Ah, I've already been up for four hours."
36:00
When I do Cashing Out, I'm waking up in the middle of money moves. You know? [laughs] Yeah. No, no offense. I'll catch the replays to a numbers game, but I'm fast asleep during a numbers game- Oh, yeah, no offense taken.
36:10
I'm fast asleep by the time- During Cashing Out... your show starts. Exactly. So yeah, exactly. Yeah. You're like, "And if I wasn't asleep, Joe, you put me to sleep." [laughs] Let's get to some best bets.
36:17
Best bets brought to you by GBank, of course, the official bank of VSIN. Uh, gonna have a little disclaimer here on my first bet, 'cause I think that this was entered incorrectly.
36:27
SMU, I believe it was taken as Southern Mississippi here on your screen. Southern Methodist, so it's an ACC matchup with my first play here.
36:35
Southern Methodist laying one and a half, I believe that might be a two now, at Notre Dame. The Irish have failed to cover six straight, just one and four straight up in their last five.
36:45
League worst, four and eight against the number at home. Five and nine against the number in conference play. SMU's won five out of their last six. Four and two against the spread as an away favorite.
36:56
Highest powered offense in the conference. So there we go. I think we fixed that, as we'll get that thrown up on your screen. SMU laying one and a half against Notre Dame.
37:06
Uh, and then the other three plays we ran through already. Mou- um, not Mountain West, excuse me. Missouri Valley action, Illinois Chicago catching 10 and a hook at Drake. Bradley minus one at Illinois State.
37:15
Bama catching one and a half at Mizzou. Kelly, what do you got on your, uh, best bet card for the day? Yeah, nothing for tonight, but two NBA plays I did add, uh, since we last talked yesterday.
37:26
I did add that 30 plus wins on the Raptors, uh, at plus 280 like that, and then one bet already for tomorrow in the account. Blazers catching five.
37:35
They will have the Lakers coming off of their game, uh, against the Hornets tonight coming into town. It's sitting, like, four, four and a half, but look around today if that hits five again.
37:44
I think that's a good number to jump in on.
37:46
And, and honestly, Joe, as we talked about with the win totals earlier, if you are betting this like I am, we probably should be sprinkling a little [laughs] on their over on their win total anyways, 'cause we talked, all they need is eight.
37:56
If I like- Yeah... the game tomorrow night already, then okay, you should probably be thinking about that a little bit harder. Absolutely.
38:01
We'll get to Jim Root, joined us from the three-man weave, of course, back in hour one. He's got some college hoops action. If you folks think I get frisky with the mid-major stuff, how about this?
38:10
We're talking the Summit League, we're talking the Horizon League. He's got St. Thomas laying three and a half at South Dakota. I was on South Dakota with a best bet last week. We got home.
38:19
I actually love this spot and love this play. I was looking at St. Thomas myself. Uh, IU Indy, also known as, formerly known as IUPUI, catching one. It's a practically a, uh, a pick 'em spot at Detroit.
38:31
And then the Johnnies, St. John's, laying 12 and a hook at DePaul in Chicago. Believe that might be up to 13 right now. St. John's, one of the most stifling defenses in the country.
38:42
JVT, some best bets, both Mountain West action. San Jose State, Kelly, this opened 16 and a half. Now they're catching 19 against Utah State. That's wild.
38:51
New Mexico, Richard Pitino's son, so we have both Pitinos covered here, catching four and a half at Boise. I agree with JVT wholeheartedly there, that that number was just a little out of whack.
39:00
And then to parrot JVT's sentiment, if Kentucky gets down to three and a half at home against Vandy, injuries and all, he said he would lay the three and a half with Kentucky. Michael Montesano gave out some futures.
39:13
Florida to make the Final Four, plus $1.65. Sparty, Michigan State, Tom Izzo's squad, 10 to one to make the Final Four.
39:20
He said he was specifically looking to see if they could draw Duke, a team that Izzo has some experience bouncing in March Madness. Folks, best bets brought to you, of course, by GBank.
39:30
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39:42
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39:54
That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions do apply. Kelly, it's hump day. No better way to celebrate, my man, than going country clubbing. Let's go.
40:06
[upbeat music] I love this track. It is great. Never gets old. It is great. I remember when I saw it for the first time, I was like, "Wow, all the old people playing in their drinks? That's amazing."
40:19
PGA Tour heads south of the border, going down to Mexico for the Mexico Open. Uh, w- West Coast swing is over. We're headed to Florida next week. We got the Mexico Open in between.
40:31
No, this is not the best field you're gonna see this year. In fact, it is one of the worst fields, uh, that you're gonna see on the PGA Tour. I think I know one person in this- Yeah, there's a lot of that.
40:38
And listen- I know Akshay Bhatia If you're not betting golf regularly, there is a lot of people on this odds board you are not gonna recognize. That is very fair. It's a full field event, though, 132 players.
40:48
Top 65 in ties will make the cut. Still at V- uh, Vidanta Vallarta, that is where they are playing this fourth year now, uh, where they have played this. Jake Knapp, Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, winners the past three years.
41:00
Uh, bright 19 under for Knapp last year. Finau was 24 under, 17 under the year before that for Jon Rahm. So we will see guys go low here. Won't be a complete birdie fest, uh, though.
41:11
A- as, as you said, Akshay Ba- uh, Bhatia is the short shot, uh, in the market. Around 14 to one is where you're gonna find him for this event. He's been playing great golf recently.
41:20
I really, really like, uh, uh, his season outlook and completely understand the number on him.
41:25
Uh, this is, if you're handicapping this at home, this is one of the longest, uh, courses on the PGA Tour, seventh longest I believe it is.
41:32
It is the longest collection of par fours and par fives on the PGA Tour that these guys will play. So you are looking for a combination of guys that are long off the tee and very, very good with long iron play.
41:44
Uh, 62% of your approach shots are gonna come from 175 yards or more.
41:49
Fo- over 40% of those will come from over 200 yards So we're looking really for that combination of guys that are both long off the tee, but then also good from those long approach ranges.
41:59
Uh, not a huge card for me this week, but, you know, as I, as I gave Wes a little bit of guff earlier in the week, if you're gonna get to his level and hit three in a row, Joe, you gotta start, it starts with one.
42:08
That happened last week, so we're looking for two now. Number two starts now, okay?
42:11
Kelly, I, in full transparency, if you told me you had a loaded card this week, I'd be like sliding over the paper, "Hey, 1-800-GAMBLER." [laughs] I mean, I, I don't know any of these guys.
42:21
I might, I might put a little something on Stefan Jaeger just because when he crushes one off the tee, do they yell, "Jaeger bombs!" Jaeger bombs. No, everybody does. Everybody does. It's a great name. It's a great name.
42:29
Uh, yeah, so I got four outrights on the card that's all play- uh, playing this week. Taylor Moore starts me off 26 to 1. Uh, not the greatest approach numbers recently.
42:37
The only thing that's holding me back from, from being a little bit more in love with this play, uh, his game should fit here perfectly, though.
42:43
Third off the tee in the field, fourth in par five scoring, uh, ninth in bogey avoidance, eighth in driving distance.
42:49
Kinda checks all the boxes, but some, uh, some concerns with the irons recently has me backed off a little bit, so just an outright play on Taylor Moore.
42:56
Favorite golfer this week, I use him for one and doneS too, is Kevin Yu. 35 to 1 on an outright play, and then played him in top 20 market as well, uh, at plus 160.
43:06
Look, I, just really going off of really recent form here, past couple weeks, T17 at the Genesis, T16 the Waste Management Phoenix Open, uh, which have a- at least sorta some comps to what the course that they're gonna be playing this week.
43:18
You look at what he's doing off the tee, though, weighted strokes gained off the tee 18th in this field.
43:23
He's ninth on approach, 14th in birdie or better, and he is top five in both of those proximity ranges that I was talking about, uh, for the long iron play. So really like Kevin Yu this week.
43:33
Played him in the outright market and then top 20. Alex Smalley, 40 to 1. That is a very popular play you will see this week. Played an outright on him, uh, as well.
43:42
Again, another guy whose game should fit perfectly here. And then a longer shot for me, Alejandro Tosti, 115 to 1. Matt Brown peer pressure on this one, 'cause I am not missing out on Alejandro Tosti's first win.
43:52
This is like the Nick Kyrgios of the PGA Tour. This guy's, uh, gets in trouble all the time.
43:56
Long Shots, full episode up on YouTube, up over at VSiN YouTube, up on all your podcast, uh, feeds right now, so check that all out. Me, Matt, and Wes go through the entire event. Kelly, fantastic stuff.
44:06
The only thing that I can agree with that you just said, 'cause it's the only thing I know about firsthand, Matt Brown peer pressure. [laughs] It's a real thing. It's a real thing. Stick around, folks.
44:15
Money Moves up next. Stormy, Bond, and Tony, Grace Remington with you for the next two hours. You don't wanna miss it. He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Serallo. That does it for Numbers Game. Talk to you mañana.
44:25
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