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Feb 20, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 20, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 20, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right, let's have some fun.
0:11
It's time for a Numbers Game here, this Thursday, February 20th edition of the show, alongside Kelly Bedell. I'm Joe Serallo, taking you through your morning. We've got a couple great guests coming on the show later on.
0:24
VSiN's own Zach Cohen gonna break down a locked and loaded NBA slate as the rest of the association returns to action. We had the makeup game last night, Charlotte, Lakers.
0:36
We'll dive into that just momentarily here, Kelly. And then Mike Somich gonna join the program here in a little bit as well. Hour two, we'll break down USA versus Canada tonight, and more with Mike here on the show.
0:50
Kelly, how you doing, my man? And, uh, how did you enjoy that little, we'll call it the appetizer to tonight's NBA slate? Yeah, it was, uh, it was okay. It was okay. Pretty underwhelming.
0:58
[laughs] Yeah, pretty underwhelming. Yeah, it was a Hornets-Lakers game. Uh, that was... Hey, it was close at the end. If you wanted to see LeBron brick some threes, uh, at the end, uh, you got all that.
1:07
Uh, but yeah, a big day. Uh, NBA back, uh, w- with a full card tonight. Can't wait for that. Uh, gotta take my little mental vacation from late night NBA is off.
1:16
Now it's time for, uh, some long nights again, and, uh, this hockey game, man. Yeah, I don't think we've ever had such a long stretch of our best bets at the end where you just don't really have a best bet that often.
1:26
I get it. I mean- Yeah, you get it. Uh, but you know what, though? It, it's, it's important to do that as opposed to forcing it, right? Oh, yeah, yeah.
1:31
Like, like when your niche and your specialty is not in action, there, that would be like me betting on golf. Mm-hmm. There's, there's just no need to, uh, to force it.
1:39
Instead, I just might take Dave's advice from the end of VSiN By The Books where he, uh, sounded like he took a long shot on the Italian. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know who the Italian was, but- Bellinizarro, uh, Manassero.
1:47
Yep. There you go. And he, uh, l- I was, I was gonna text you yesterday. I mean, like you could go Fran- uh, Francesco Molinari and grab one of the, uh- Is Molinari in this go? Oh, yeah, b- yeah, he's in the field. Okay.
1:56
Yeah, you could actually get a major champion, uh, who's Italian in the field. Yeah. 'Cause he was a... I mean, when I was looking at the, uh, the leaderboard on DraftKings yesterday, I d- I did not see his name.
2:04
I either missed it- [laughs]... or he was way down there. Way down, Joe. Yeah. Way down. 'Cause the only guy- Keep scrolling. [laughs] The only guy I saw that I recognized was, uh, Bhatia right there- Mm-hmm...
2:12
at the, at the top of the leaderboard. Uh, this Lakers-Hornets game, Charlotte gets their 100 to 97 at the Staples Center or Crypto Arena, whatever you wanna call it.
2:21
Uh, LA started pretty hot, had a seven-point lead after the first, had, had an 11-point lead at the half, despite, you know, a really underwhelming, I would say bad first half out of Luka in this one.
2:35
How concerned are you? Because I know it's early and, and I don't wanna be alarmist and I don't wanna be a sensationalist. How concerned are you about maybe the chemistry between LeBron and Luka? Uh, not at all.
2:45
Not- No, not at all. It's too early. I think there's nothing to draw from that. I think you'd... I, I, I think the early returns would... I would say I'd like to see Luka Dončić be, be more involved and aggressive.
2:57
Um, however, he's kind of been playing under minutes restrictions and stuff like that, uh, until really last night, but even then he had to come off court a- at different times for defense.
3:08
Um, I, I think going forward, that's something to watch, Joe. But I think from what we've seen so far, that's not something we should make a big deal out of.
3:15
'Cause if, if you're, if you're saying LeBron's good to go on his normal minutes and your other guy's gotta be playing limited minutes, it makes sense that LeBron's gonna be kind of running the show for the most part.
3:24
So I think it's gonna be interest- interesting to see how that develops over the next couple weeks, which are some of the biggest couple weeks of the NBA season. I- i- i- i- is my belief. Oh, yeah. Like, it is...
3:36
Yes, games are weird coming out of the All-Star break, and warning for bettors out there, like this is a, this is a ratcheted downtime a little bit like heading into the All-Star break.
3:44
You just don't know where guys' heads are at. Some are just coming off vacation. A- and then there are, there's the complete opposite of that too.
3:50
This is also some of the time where, where teams really get to practice together a- and really get to g- you know, have regular days of practice, Joe, that they haven't had since the pre-season 'cause you're mixing in games all the time, uh, and just worrying about shootarounds, not getting that much practice time in.
4:05
So i- it's really, I think it's, it, it's really tough gambling o- out, out on these games coming out of the All-Star break, not knowing exactly where different players, different teams are at with that stuff.
4:15
Uh, but the Lakers, look, the same problems that we thought they were gonna have showed up last night. The bigs, they, uh, Charlotte's bigs, they had a problem with.
4:22
Yes, I guess it was a Mark Williams revenge game, uh [laughs] or something to that factor. But, you know, he had nine rebounds. Talking about Nurkic off the bench with eight rebounds in only 18 minutes.
4:32
Uh, it, it's pretty clear that they're struggling from the re- uh, look, you just look at team rebounding, sure, they out-rebounded Charlotte, but from those, uh, easy boards to get inside from the bigs they're struggling with.
4:42
Um, so yeah, we'll, we'll have to see how this team handles things going forward.
4:45
You like to see that chemistry develop, but I think some of the problems that they're g- that they have from a roster building standpoint are just gonna be issues throughout the season.
4:53
Now, you mentioned it during the All-Star break, the, the idea of the Lakers dropping down into the play-in tournament. Did you get to the counter on that? Because- No...
5:01
it's shorter now than when you brought it up after just this one loss. They're on, on the division, uh, where is it? The Clippers were, I believe, plus 280 to win the division. Yeah. Now plus 240.
5:12
Uh, and then for the Lakers to make the play-in, that was, I believe, closer to three to one, now closer to two to one, just after one game. Yeah. It's a bad loss to Charlotte. Yeah.
5:21
I mean, this is a Charlotte team that is, uh- Especially at home... yeah, at home. Uh, losing to one of the worst teams in the NBA, I, I mean, it is, like Charlotte's healthier.
5:29
This was a team I was a little bit higher [laughs] on than, than most at the beginning of the season when they were healthy. But you did see basically their full complement of weapons last night.
5:37
LaMelo Ball was back out there with Bridges. You had Mark Williams in the lineup, uh, after it looked like they were gonna lose him.
5:43
So this is one of the stronger Charlotte, uh, y- you know, lineups that you're gonna face during the season.
5:49
I'll tell you, switching over to the, the college hoops side of things last night quickly, that Alabama-Missouri game. I don't know how, uh, how locked into that you were. I watched most of the first half.
5:58
Alabama puts up 98 points, loses by double digits. Yeah. This team's defense, they, they're a team and, and you know, look, I've said it on this program before, I've said it on my show, on Cashing Out before.
6:07
I usually try to fade Nate Oats i- in big games and big situations, and this year I was getting there with Bama.
6:14
This was the year that I was thinking I might When, when, when March rolls around and, and now we're, you know, under a month's time away from selection Sunday, about three weeks or so away, I might be able to get there on circling Bama's name at the end of things in early April.
6:30
No shot with their defense. I mean, they can score with anyone. Mm. 98 points. You should never lose a college basketball game in regulation when you score 98 points, let alone to lose it by double digits.
6:43
I, I mean, you know, a- at the end of things, Missouri was, uh, was getting up more shots and volume than Bama was for, uh, for the most part earlier in the game. By the end of things, Bama ended up getting more shots.
6:54
That's what they do. They shoot in volume. They average about nine more field goal attempts per game than their opponent. Missouri shot over 60% from the floor, though.
7:02
I, I mean, the efficiency was off the charts, and free throws, I mentioned, uh, yesterday during the show how both of these teams get to the line better than anyone in the SEC, about 27 times per game.
7:13
Bama got there 21 times. Mizzou got there 47 times. You allow damn near 50 free throw attempts- Wow. Yeah... and they only shot about two-thirds.
7:22
Bama shot a, at a much higher clip from the free throw line, but- You, you can't let someone get to the line that much, though. Oh my gosh. Yeah. Yeah. 47 to 21, that's the, uh, the difference in the game right there.
7:32
A 12-point loss for Bama. You know, we, we fell for the trap. It was a bit of a fishy line. A team like Alabama- Mm-hmm...
7:37
being an underdog in that spot, and they were so good as underdogs this year, 4 and 0 against the number as dogs, 3 and 0 against the number coming off a straight-up loss at the time.
7:46
E- everything seemed, uh, seemed a little fishy about that. I thought Bama would have too much offensively.
7:51
You know, I'll tell you the truth though, Kelly, i- if we go back in time and you tell me before the game, "Hey, Joe, Alabama's gonna score 98 points in this one, in regulation. Are you taking them?" I'd have said yes.
8:02
Yeah. Yeah. E- even an atrocious defense, I, I thought- Sure... would be better than allowing 110 in a college hoops game. Yeah, total, what total set at 173 and a half? [laughs] Yeah, you're taking...
8:10
You say, "Yeah, I'll take 98 points, no problem." Right? Absolutely.
8:14
Uh, Kentucky, I don't know where that one closed because there was some line movement there, but JVT came on, said if it got to three and a half he would take it.
8:21
And whether you got three and a half, whether you got five and a half, 82-61 the final. It was a neck and neck first half, 41-40 Kentucky, and then in the second half they put up 41. Vandy only put up 21.
8:33
Little reminiscent there of the A&M Mississippi State game from the night before where it's a one-point game at the break and then the home team just absolutely blows the away team out of the water second half.
8:42
More SEC action. Auburn wins, doesn't cover. And, you know, we were talking about that number against Arkansas yesterday. Yeah. It was, what? It got up to 17 points? A massive number.
8:52
They win by seven, so Coach Cal's Razorbacks cover. And then St. John's, a game that I was, uh, I was afraid to get there. I believe, what, Jim Root gave it out yesterday- Yeah. Yep. He was on it...
9:01
the Johnnies minus 12 and a half, and I thought it was a big number. Road sp- uh, road spot coming off a big win against Creighton. Emotional win over the weekend.
9:09
Well, Pitino's Johnnies just absolutely blew DePaul out, 82-58. The top 10 St. John's Red Storm just keep on winning, 14 and 2 in Big East play. Kelly, a- any, any inclination to take this team come March?
9:25
Man, they have looked good. The couple times I've seen them, and I watched a little bit of that game last night, too, they were looking dang good. So that is, uh, I... yeah, something I could be interested in.
9:32
And like you said, the Pitino, uh, the Pitino speeches fire me up, so. Yeah, those speeches were incredible. And you know, look, I, I know that there's no secret St. John's offensively a little challenged, right? Mm.
9:42
29% from three at least before that DePaul game. Uh, but we did mention it yesterday.
9:47
There have been two teams in the last 15 years to make the Final Four shooting less than 33% from three, and they were two Rick Pitino-led Louisvilles. Yeah, I mean, like, that's the...
9:57
I forgot, I forgot about that stat from yesterday. I, in today's world of basketball, I, either at the college or NBA level, I don't know if I could back a team shooting that [laughs] 29% from three.
10:07
Yeah, shooting 29% from three. I really don't think I can. Well, look, a lot, a lot of this has to do with the draw. They are plus 650- Mm... to make the Final Four. So that is...
10:17
I mean, you know, that, that's the criteria for that Pitino thing. So the other one is you have to go through all these team, uh, team schedules and everything throughout the year, right? And it's, it's...
10:24
I think they're probably a good example of how, how much of your regular season schedule was gonna be that much lighter than what you're facing in the NCAA tournament, right?
10:33
And, and while you might say, "Kelly, everybody faces a tougher schedule in the NCAA tournament," well, I don't like the SEC teams might not agree with that. Right.
10:39
Or, you know, or if whatever they've played throughout conference play is, is pretty comparable to what they're gonna get the first, you know, few f- few rounds of the NCAA tournament, uh, that might not exactly be the case with St.
10:50
John's. So you might be able to live on shooting 29% from three for most of the regular season. Uh, as soon as you get down to a game in the NCAA tournament, though, and you need points, that becomes a problem.
11:00
You know what really stands out when I look at the St. John's team's resume, though? A- and I know close losses are still losses, but all of their losses have been by three or less. All four of their losses.
11:10
I mean, Baylor- So you're, you're telling me one made three could make a difference? [laughs] I'm telling you, yeah. B- uh, Baylor, one point. Um, Georgia, which is not a great loss, but SEC team. Yeah.
11:20
Three-point loss on a neutral down at one of those pre-season tournaments. Uh, Creighton by a point at Creighton. At Villanova by two. You look at some of these wins.
11:28
I mean, they blew out a really good New Mexico team by 15. Beat Kansas State, who's now beating everyone- Yeah... by 17. Obviously, the conference wins like Yukon and Creighton and Marquette.
11:39
I, I might be able to get there on my Johnnies, plus 650 to make the Final Four the way that they've been playing. We'll dive into tonight's NBA slate up next. It's a numbers game. He's Kelly Bidlin. I'm Joe Serallo.
11:48
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It's a numbers game on VSiN alongside Kelly Bidlin.
12:06
I'm Joe Serallo taking you through your Thursday morning, February 20th edition of the show. We are underway in Mexico with some golf, Kelly. I, uh, I believe- What are we at here?
12:19
The, uh- Mexico Open, just getting started... seven holes is the, uh, the most that have been completed- Yes... thus far, so about halfway through for some of these guys.
12:28
Anyone s- or some of the bigger dogs still waiting to tee off here? Uh, yeah. Yeah, let's see. Where is Ochai teed off? Yeah, he's, uh, yeah, we're just getting started. There's not that many groups out on the course.
12:39
But full field event coming in Mexico, so it is a bit earlier start, uh, than you're used to. Rio Hisatsune is four under par through his seven holes, uh, is your leader right now.
12:49
Uh, not on my card, Joe, so we'll, uh, we'll see how that goes. I did may- end up making first round leader bets on Kevin Yu and Alex Smalley, and I believe those are not off to a good start.
12:58
Kevin Yu is one over par, and Alex Smalley is just about to tee off. No, he is even through five. Even through five. So I'll be watching those guys. Need them to pick it up here.
13:09
Hisatsune right now, 28 to one outright, five to one to go top five, plus 240 to go top 10. Do any of those other markets intrigue you? I mean, look, I, I know it's... What do they got?
13:22
Four rounds to play, so he's about an eighth of the way- Right. [laughs]... through his weekend, but maybe a top five or a top 10 market at- Uh-... those plus prices? No, way too early.
13:29
If anything, I think you'd be looking at end, uh, end of first round leader. I did target, uh, yeah, the, the guys that I bet for first round leader are on my outright cards.
13:37
Uh, anyways, they were the two that I liked the most, Smalley and Yu, this week.
13:41
However, uh, one thing to keep in mind with Mexico Open, the wea- the, the weather didn't look like it was gonna be a problem at all this week, but you've heard a lot of players talk about this in the past down there.
13:50
Um, the, the, the crosswinds that can come into play off the ocean in the afternoon get a little bit more difficult to judge this course.
13:57
So if anything, I'd probably be looking at just play him first round leader at six to one, but with so many guys left to tee off, I think that's tough to get, tough to get on board with that one either.
14:06
All right, Kelly, you got me into this market last week, nationality props. [laughs] How about, how about, how about Hisatsune to be the top Asian? There's only eight shots on the board plus 240. I don't hate that.
14:18
Yeah, you can get there on that? Your boy Kevin Yu is five to one. Uh, that's the problem. We got Kevin Yu and C.T. Pan still in there. They w- they were, uh, they were pretty high up in the model for me.
14:26
Rico Ho I like as well. Nah, I'm gonna still, I'm gonna still say, uh, say away, Joe. Stay away. Staying away from that at plus 240. Yep. All right, fair enough.
14:34
Hisatsune, he's, he's had some good rounds on the PGA Tour over the past couple years, but I, I am not really too worried about him running away and winning this thing. I didn't know who he was prior to this, so.
14:43
Yeah, yeah. Yeah. There's gonna be a lot of names on this week's leaderboard you say that about. [laughs] Oh, yeah. Yeah, we were saying that yesterday, for sure.
14:48
We'll give you another update in about an hour or so on the Mexico Open as we get ready to shift gears to the NBA and the locked and loaded Thursday night slate we've got back from the All-Star break.
15:00
Folks, I wanna remind you that if you wanna bet smarter, you could start with smarter insights.
15:05
Right now, check out articles on vsin.com like Jonathan Davis's best bets for tonight's USA versus Canada championship in the Four Nations Face-off, Greg Peterson's best bets in college hoops, and Adam Burke's spring training betting tips.
15:20
Plus later today, our friend Zach Cohen is gonna have a best bet article up for the NBA. He's also gonna be on the show here in a little under 30 minutes.
15:29
Get access to all of these articles on vsin.com right now, so sign up for as little as 9.99 for your first 30 days. Just go to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Kelly, massive NBA slate coming at us this evening.
15:46
What is the game that stands out? I mean, it's, it's a loaded slate. I believe almost every single team in action. Which game stands out to you the most, if any? Do you have a favorite bet thus far? Ooh, good question.
15:56
Yeah, I have made, I've made two bets, um, and a couple other I'm looking at. Unfortunately, these numbers have kind of gone away because these, these games have been posted for the past few days.
16:04
I, I bet the Blazers when it opened, uh, catching five points tonight with the Lakers coming off a back-to-back situation with Charlotte last night- I like that, yeah... uh, heading into Portland.
16:13
Portland's been playing well. We talked about this a little bit when we were talking about the win totals.
16:16
I liked them, uh, for the over their win total, uh, which i- if you did end up betting this game or bet that win total, you should probably be betting both.
16:24
Uh, I, I still haven't gotten to the window with the win total, but I'm, I'm still thinking that way, Joe, that I should probably be adding it.
16:30
Uh, but Portland since January 1, 12 and 11, uh, really right middle of the league. This is not one, been one of the bottom feeders.
16:36
They've been picking up wins, um, and have kind of played themselves out of that, uh, that tanking group of teams.
16:41
And, uh, a top 10 defense over that time, so really interested to see what they're, what they're able to do against this Lakers team.
16:47
Again, they have the size even with Deandre Ayton now to be able to cause problems, uh, for this, for this Lakers squad. Portland 11 and 3 ATS their last 14 games. 8 and 0 ATS their last eight at home.
16:58
So I, I like them tonight. It's down to three. We're getting near the cutoff point for me, Joe, but I, it would still be a very, very heavy lean to the Portland side, uh, in that one.
17:08
And the other one that I'm gonna do nobody any favors with is, look, I was s- uh, I was out last night, saw the n- uh, news come down on my phone that Wemby was doubtf- uh, flipped to doubtful with illness tonight.
17:18
I jumped on the, on the Suns cutching, uh, catching three points at that, at that point. Wow. It's now flipped to the other side.
17:24
I had a feeling, I had a feeling this was gonna happen, although we've seen some movement this morning. Flipped to the Suns favorite.
17:30
I was a little shocked when I was looking at stuff this morning, Joe, that it, this had gotten all the way out to the Suns by three.
17:37
There's now been some buyback, which I think is correct, and we're getting, we're settling in at Phoenix at two. That's basically everywhere, uh, you'll find right now. So those are the only two games I've bet.
17:46
A couple others of note, though. This one, I, I probably should have bet already. Clippers at Bucks, really fascinating game tonight. Be- uh, one of the better games, uh, on, on the board.
17:57
Giannis looks like he's gonna go, but we haven't gotten that full clearance yet. He did practice with the team yesterday, uh, missed a couple games before the All-Star break.
18:07
Uh, a- and, and it was his, it was a calf strain, which I think is a concern whenever you hear that with Giannis Antetokounmpo.
18:12
And as much as I love him, this te- this team is completely different when he is off the court.
18:16
So still, I'm not convinced he's gonna go tonight, but him practicing yesterday is usually a pretty good indication that he will be a go.
18:24
Now, what has happened though, Joe, since that news came down yesterday that he practiced You would think that that means the Bucs start taking money. No, this is another game where it's been all Clippers money early.
18:35
Huh. This has been, when I was looking at it, it was Clippers p- catching a point and a half. That's what I was considering betting.
18:41
Um, this has moved all the way to Clippers favored by two on the road, even, even after the announcement that Giannis practiced yesterday. So, uh, that's pretty interesting when you see those moves in the betting market.
18:53
Obviously some people that are really, really heavy on the Clippers here.
18:55
I'd probably make this closer to a pick 'em, maybe slight favorite on the Clips, but it depends to- b- completely on what Giannis' availability is tonight.
19:03
Right, and obviously, you know, if Giannis plays, it wouldn't shock me if this one does come back to a pick 'em here. Clippers just 12 and 13 straight up on the road. Mm-hmm.
19:11
Really using the home court advantage in that new Intuit Dome down there in Inglewood.
19:16
Kelly, there are two teams that really intrigue me on the board that, uh, I, I think we're gonna start to see whether or not they pack it in a- a- at this point, and one of 'em is Philadelphia. 20 and 34, hosting Boston.
19:29
Boston went there not too long ago, beat 'em by eight. Now the number's seven and a half, so it's right around the same, uh, same ballpark as it was last time they faced off.
19:37
Do you think the Celtics go out there and steamroll 'em? Do you think the Sixers have, have fully just given up and packed it in?
19:42
Yeah, this is an interesting one, too, eh, 'cause this number was like a eight and a half, and it's kinda got bet down. There are some sevens out there right now. It is, uh, it's one I got my eye on.
19:51
I don't know if I'm gonna do anything with it pre-game, but this might be an in-game look to the Boston side. It would be absolutely, to answer your question, would be absolutely Boston or nothing here.
19:59
I, I, I can't start backing Philly until you se- see them start to put something regularly, uh, together here, a- and they just haven't been able to do that.
20:07
Even, even when i- in the Embiid game, since he's been back at the start of February, they're one and three in those games.
20:12
It's not like they're playing great in those games that he's out there, either, uh, against not all that great competition.
20:17
Um, and look, Boston, uh, w- we've talked about it, you know, the past week or so, maybe a little sluggish through this season so far.
20:25
Uh, but wouldn't be surprised at all if they're able to flip the switch here coming out of the All-Star break.
20:28
You know, kinda hit on it in the first segment, but these next couple weeks you really get a feel for what teams that you think are true contenders or true threats in a, in a conference.
20:38
You usually start to click and look good, and usually, usually, you know, uh, you said, uh, make a statement for how they're gonna play the rest of the regular season and then into the playoffs.
20:47
So I expect Boston to kinda turn up the intensity level here a bit. I think it's seven. It's getting close to a Boston play for me, but I think I'll probably just wait and, a- and look to play this team in-game.
20:57
How 'bout three and a half first half? Yeah. That intrigue you at all on a really good first half team? Uh, yeah. Yeah, it does. Yeah, you've brought up this, the Boston first half stuff before.
21:05
I think that, uh, i- think it is, uh, interesting. Just for me it's, i- it will probably just be in-game looks.
21:10
See, if they g- if they fall behind with the amount of threes that Boston likes to put up, always a good team to look at for in-game. How 'bout the, uh, you know, we've talked about the, the Brooklyn Nets.
21:19
First half, they're one of the better teams, uh, out there. They're catching seven and a half at home. Now, mind you, they're playing Cleveland. Mm.
21:26
So this is a Cavs team that can easily just, uh, end this thing and make it, you know, a 25, 30-point blowout start to finish. But Brooklyn catching 13 on the game as a whole, seven and a half first half.
21:38
Any intrigue there o- on the Nets? You know, kinda, kinda the opposite of Philly, right? Philly came into the year with such high expectations, now they might be tanking, packing it in.
21:47
Brooklyn came in as a, as a candidate to tank, and, you know, they're going out there, giving it max effort every night. Yeah, I think it's the, uh, the only win total I've already lost- [laughs]...
21:56
is on the under on the Brooklyn Nets. Yeah, good times. The, uh [laughs]
21:59
The, look, this, the p- the problem is with this one, i- i- as scrappy as Brooklyn has been here recently, Cleveland just, we have seen it time after time this season, especially against lesser opponents, them not only win, but win handily.
22:13
I mean, uh, margin of victory, they are second team, uh, in the NBA. 10.8- Yeah... is what their margin of victory is. Only behind Oklahoma City. No surprise there.
22:22
Just some of these weaker teams that they can just beat up on. It would, it'd probably be Cleveland or nothing. Um, one other game we gotta hit on at some point, though.
22:30
Out of the All-Star break, highest total of the NBA season, Grizzlies at Pacers, up to 251 now. Wow. We'll get to that up next. Also, my favorite play in college hoops tonight on the other side. It's a Numbers Game.
22:41
He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Joe Seralla. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:57
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23:28
The NBA is back in action, folks, and if you want a game where Vegas is anticipating some action, look no further than this Memphis-Indiana game, with a total hovering right up around 250, Kelly.
23:44
Yeah, well, this keeps going up. I had circled this a couple days ago when numbers came out. I saw 249 and a half, and it was, uh, even at that point, the largest total of the NBA season.
23:55
And we, yes, we've, we've, we've gotten a little used to this with Indiana games over the past couple years. Yeah. They have always, uh, very, pretty consistently been a part of the high, highest total games.
24:04
Uh, this sailed to 251s this morning. I have seen buybacks since then, mainly down to 250, 249 and a half. Uh, right now, Joe, I, this is always tough.
24:15
I feel like these are always angles I get burnt on when I actually end up going to the window with it. But, you know, we talked about it.
24:21
You're right out of the All-Star break, you don't know exactly where guys' minds are at, how sharp teams are. Yes, these are just two of the more fa- faster paced teams in the NBA.
24:32
Uh, so that, you know, there's nothing about that part that's gonna change that that requires you to boost the total up a bit. But do we expect every part of these offenses to be completely effective in game one?
24:43
I, I don't know. This might just be a, a small blind under bet for me today at 250. It just feels like a very high total for two teams coming out of the break.
24:51
This is also one of those spots though that, at least for me comparing it to football, you know, I always say in the NFL, "Give me an under on a total in the 30s, give me an over on a total in the 50s." Mm. Yeah.
24:59
Where you get a high total like this and you, you think that's gotta be way too high, right? And, and in this case, I don't know. I'm, I'm looking at that number and I'm going, "Do I just on principle..."
25:08
Now I'm, I don't know, how does that translate to the NBA? 'Cause in the NFL, I see 50s and my first thought is over 'cause they want you to take the under. Yeah, it's,
25:18
uh, um, look, I th- I think that t- I think talking about that, it's, you know, going one way like that, either NFL or NBA, isn't completely right. But ob- Right...
25:25
obviously, if you're seeing, yes, if you're seeing a higher total, they're expecting more points, doesn't matter what the sport is, right? So easier chance of it sail- uh, uh, going over. But I, I'm with you.
25:35
I think especially when you talk unders, lower totals, lower totals I'm not afraid to bet unders into as much as I am overs on higher totals. Right. Right. That makes sense.
25:44
Here's a high total that I, I think actually, you know, it's not quite as high as Memphis, Indy, it's not 250, but might be worth a look to the over. Chicago and the Knicks, 243 and a half.
25:54
I mean, this Bulls team, who are they gonna stop? Like, how are they gonna get a stop? Very interesting you bring that one up, Joe, 'cause the, uh, that is the one game lighting up on my board right now.
26:02
Someone's thinking the same way you are- Oh, really? This thing's moving... 'cause this, yeah, this is getting bet on. Yeah, this is on the move right now. 243. Uh, I'm gonna guess Brendan updated this before the show.
26:11
243 is what we had from Circa, uh, before the show. It is up to f- 244 and a half right now at Circa. So- Oh, wow... uh, not huge moves, but- So that's why you always shop around.
26:20
DraftKings, you're gonna get a full p- oh, no, DraftKings just moved half a tick to 244. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah, this is g- all right. Nice. We're moving the market here on a numbers game. I mean, you look at the Knicks.
26:29
Look, it's a team with two MVP candidates, Brunson, Carl Anthony Towns.
26:33
And then on top of that, if you look at their recent games, i- it's like the, there's always a third guy, whether it's Josh Hart giving them damn near 30, which is something he almost never does.
26:41
Precious Achiuwa giving him 25 recently, something he almost never does. It, it's been, you know, Cat, Brunson, a- and always seemingly Bridges, Achiuwa, Hart, some next man up.
26:52
I, I mean, this team is really scoring in bunches. You look at their last couple of games, 149 against the Hawks, 128 against Indiana, 104 against Boston, but it's Boston.
27:01
And then 121, 124, 112 and a loss, 122, 143 back to back games. I, I mean, this is not your typical Tom Thibodeau team. Yeah, no. Keep an eye on these, uh, New York injury reports the next couple games, though.
27:13
Josh Hart was ruled out tonight, uh, still dealing, dealing with a nagging knee injury, which is kinda concerning coming out of the All-Star break. Yeah. Uh, I have to keep an eye on that.
27:22
The good news if you're a Knicks fan out there, Mitchell Robinson did get back into five, five on five practices, uh, over, over the break. So we should be seeing him soon.
27:30
Not gonna play tonight, uh, it doesn't look like. And then OG Anunoby also with a questionable tag. Uh, but y- that might be a little bit more precautionary.
27:38
A lot of these teams will, will go if, uh, like we talked about yesterday, if anybody's sneezing or, or even complaining about a sore thumb or something, it's, "Well, we're gonna put a questionable tag.
27:46
We'll clear that up later," so. Yeah, that's the NBA for you. How about the Knicks team total in this one? 128 and a half. Yeah. Is that crazy or what?
27:54
That's probably where I would look to go with an over if I was going anything. It would just be isolate New York. I, I, uh, th- I think this Bulls team is- Do you think they'll go for one third?
28:01
I, I mean, if I was gonna play they, they, the over, I'd rather play a team total over on New York than the, uh, game over. Yeah. And I don't know if I can get their lane 12.
28:08
I mean, Chicago, you know, again, I just made the point, who do they have that's gonna get a stop? I, I, I'm really low on this Bulls team. I think kinda like Philly, they're probably gonna pack it in.
28:17
I know earlier last segment when I said two teams that are gonna pack it in, it was the Sixers and the Bulls, but, uh, 12 is just a lot of points. Yeah. Yeah, it is.
28:25
And for, for game one too, out of the break, not, not when they're- Right. No Hart, who's your, you know, defensive guy and does all the dirty work.
28:32
Uh, one game we didn't get to that I'm really intrigued by, Orlando-Atlanta in Atlanta. Magic on the road stink, yet they're laying a point and a half in this one. I think it's a good spot to take the Hawks money line.
28:42
Because they've been so great? [laughs] I mean- Hey, I mean, look, the Orlando stuff's re- I... Orlando, I think, is one of the most interesting teams though here in the second half.
28:52
'Cause it's do they continue to look like the team they looked like for a few weeks before the All-Star break, which was not all that great?
28:59
Or do they return to the form that we saw early in the season where they looked like one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference? And I, Joe, I don't really...
29:06
It's probably somewhere in between, but honestly, them struggling, this is where I c- this where... I've, I've heard heat thrown out for the Southeast division. We, you've talked a couple times about Atlanta.
29:16
I can't get on board with anybody because the Orlando question marks are way too big for me right now.
29:21
It would not shock me at all if this team came back and started to play at a level that we saw earlier in the season, or there's just some major problems with these teams, uh, with this team, especially with their two stars coming back from injuries.
29:32
Uh, that they're not able to, n- not able to get things, uh, back together and they just go away. Uh, but d- man, we've seen it. What have we talked? S- uh, play-in prices, win totals.
29:43
The Heat-Magic-Hawks are all stacked so closely together in B- and to me should be that way, that there's not, not enough separation for me to get here on Atlanta's side tonight.
29:52
Yeah, I mean, home court matters a little bit in my estimation in this one. Look, Atlanta lost eight in a row not too long ago. They've responded by winning four out of their last six.
30:00
And their two losses i- in those last six games, by the way, both by a point. 126-125 to San Antonio, 149-148 right before the All-Star break at MSG against the Knicks.
30:13
Uh, I don't know if Orlando's got the offensive firepower to keep up with this Atlanta team. It's the lowest total of the night, 222 and a hook. You know Atlanta can score. The total's that low because of Orlando.
30:22
And again, they are just... And, and this goes back to last year too, when the Magic kinda made that surprise run into the playoffs, taking Cleveland to a game seven.
30:30
And- The Magic, even a year ago, their home and away splits- Yeah... were really massive. They stink on the road. Yeah, this is, I, I m- th- there's a reason why you're seeing total this low.
30:40
So Atlanta, since January 1st, 25th best offensive rating outside of garbage time minutes. This is, uh, over at Cleaning the Glass is where I always pull these stats out for.
30:51
Takes out garbage time, helps you, uh, see things a little bit clearer. And then, uh, Orlando, where was Orlando? Uh, do, do, do, I've lost the Magic.
30:59
T- imagine, 29th, uh, in offensive rating since the [laughs] uh, since the new year. So yeah, uh, both these offenses- Not good... not really firing.
31:07
You know what I wanna though, uh, wanted to be, Joe, is, is just get to a close game at the end, and I need more Trae Young clutch minutes and clutch points because I've got a bet in him for being the clutch man of the year.
31:17
Um, and we're gonna get to some of those awards here soon. We're- Yeah, what'd you get him at, 4 to 1? No, I, no I got him at, like, uh, 15 to 1 I think is what I have him at.
31:23
Oh wow, and he's at, he's around 4, 5 to 1 right now, right? Yep. Yeah. Yeah, this Magic team, by the way, second worst, uh, road cover team in the NBA.
31:30
10 and 19 straight up, also 10 and 19 against the number away from Orlando. Folks, I've got one play in college basketball tonight. So let's go to the Big West.
31:42
Give me UC San Diego, the Tritons, who are kind of dethroning UC Irvine. I mean, look, UC Irvine is, is still a really good team. They're nothing to scoff at. But the Tritons right now, best team in the Big West.
31:54
Best ATS team in the country, covering 79% of the time, 19 and 5 against the number. And how about these other underlying numbers?
32:02
Because obviously, you know, j- just your, your cover number, your cover mark doesn't tell the entire story.
32:08
The Tritons are third in margin of victory, averaging a 17-point win this year, and second in covering margin, meaning that they are not just covering, you know, by, by the hair on their chinny chin chin over here, Kelly.
32:20
They're covering by about seven points per game. They're laying 13 and a hook at Cal Poly Slo. San Diego's won and covered seven straight.
32:29
All of those wins have come by 11 or more, and all of the, the six wins in those seven that have took place on the continental US, the 11-point win was at Hawaii.
32:39
Every win that's taken place in the continental US has been by 14 or more. I make note of that 'cause Hawaii's always a difficult place to play with the travel. 12 and 2 against the number in conference play.
32:49
9 and 2 on the road. They already beat Cal Poly by damn near 30 in their last match up. It's a Cal Poly team that can score. Both offenses are atop the Big West, right around 80 points per game.
33:00
But Cal Poly has the fifth worst defense in terms of scoring defense in the country. They rank 360th out of 364, allowing about 82, 83 points per game.
33:13
They give up more, uh, about 12 more shots per game than the Tritons do. They allow a ton of second chance points.
33:20
They're also, in addition to being a bottom five team in terms of scoring defense, a bottom 20 team on the glass. UC San Diego defensively, we'll dive into this a little more later,
33:31
best team in the country at forcing turnovers, generating steals. I like the Tritons in this one by, honestly, I think about 20 points. More NBA up next. VSiN's own Zach Cohen joins us. It's a numbers game.
33:43
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34:48
Tweet at the show, @kellybidlin, @thejoeserollo. For myself, of course, @vsinlive across all socials. Kelly, we've got some, uh, tweets to get going. Yeah, this was a good one.
34:58
Banshees of Atlantic City, always a great listener. Appreciate you tweeting this in.
35:02
Uh, just, uh, tweeted, "Hey, you might remember last, last season, post All-Star break, there, there was a large unexplained drop in number of fouls being called, lower scores.
35:10
No idea if we'll see that again, but in last night's game, there were only two, 29 free throws taken." Um, something I'm interested to get Zach's thought, uh, thoughts on.
35:19
I, I cannot imagine with the blowback the NBA got last year after it was kind of figured out that there was a change in officiating and, uh, director, directive to the offic- officials to change how they were calling some games, and that kind of went un- unannounced to the public.
35:36
I, I, I doubt there's gonna be anything like that this year, but I can't rule it out 'cause it absolutely did happen last year. And, um, it cost me some bets it sure felt like.
35:45
[laughs] The, the, the, the betting, the winning started to slow down this time of year. So, um, something to at least be aware of. I'm very glad, uh, you tweeted that in, Banshees.
35:54
And before we get to Zach, just one more. This is breaking news, uh, coming down right now. NBA, um, Milwaukee Bucks forward Bobby Porter suspended 25 games for violating the league's anti-drug policy. Wow.
36:06
Uh, released a lengthy statement. I haven't gotten to the end of it, but, uh, to sum it up, he, he basically took the wrong painkiller, Joe. So, you know, be, be careful out there.
36:14
Make sure you're taking the right- I hate when that happens I hate when that happens, right? Yeah Never, never goes well for me, Kelly. Always make sure you're taking the right painkiller. [laughs] That's right, yeah.
36:21
Well, let's, uh, let's talk painkillers and, uh, and officials calling fouls with VSiN senior editor now Zach Cohen on the progressive guest line. Follow him on Twitter @bettingonx.
36:30
Zach, what are your thoughts about that tweet when it comes to the, uh, the fouls that were called last year post All-Star break, and what do you expect this year? Yeah, so I'm with Kelly.
36:38
I don't think we're gonna see a major change this year.
36:40
I think last year, you know, whether you liked it or not, the reason that they did change the officiating was because there was a slew of, like, 70-point performances from guys like Luka Dončić and Devin Booker.
36:49
And people, you know, were ber- berating the league, you know, like they always do, about the lack of defense being played and, you know, the, the just ridiculous offensive performances.
36:57
All right, Zach, uh, n- I think next segment, uh, Joe and I are gonna get to the exciting game of done or not done yet when it comes to NBA awards. I'm gonna bring in a team for this.
37:06
Based off that Bobby Portis news, Milwaukee Bucks, done or not done yet? I think they're done.
37:12
I, I, I just have not been a big believer in the depth of this team for a while now, and I think that losing Portis, a guy that, you know, gives you instant offense off the bench, is going to be a blow to them.
37:20
I did not like, you know, the Khris Middleton trade that they made.
37:23
I know that he did not look good, you know, the first portion of the season, but I do think they didn't really give him a lot of time to come back off that double ankle surgery.
37:29
I think he's gonna be looking a lot better in a couple of weeks and maybe next season. And I just think this is a team trending in the wrong direction in a bad way. Yeah.
37:36
Zach, speaking of teams trending in the wrong direction, Philadelphia, 20 and 34 on the year. They've got that top six protected pick.
37:44
Some people think because of it they might just go full tank mode now post All-Star break. They're hosting Boston, catching seven and a half.
37:51
They just lost to Boston by eight not too long ago in their most recent meeting. What are you on in this contest?
37:57
Yeah, they lost to them by eight in that recent meeting, but they also beat them in Boston on Christmas Day, and that was a game in which we did see, you know, a fully healthy Philadelphia team, and that's what we're going to have this evening.
38:06
I know that Paul George has been getting injections in his leg. Uh, that's not, you know, a great situation.
38:11
But the fact that he's going to be out there with Tyrese Maxey, with Joel Embiid against a Boston team that has struggled as a road, uh, uh, favorite this year, I like the points with Philly, and I also think there's a chance that they win this game outright.
38:21
I just think that Maxey is a tough matchup for those two defensive guards for the Celtics. Obviously, those guys are very physical. Uh, they body up their players.
38:29
But you have to, you know, stay in front of Maxey, and doing that is very, very difficult. And this is also a Boston team that has struggled to defend centers this year. I can't explain why.
38:37
I think, you know, they have a really good center group in Kristaps Porziņģis and, and Al Horford.
38:41
But, you know, I think Joel Embiid has the potential to really, you know, play a good game and set the tone for his teammates.
38:46
Yeah, I think you got, think you got some of those Celtics players getting a little old possibly, and we're- Yeah... seeing that, uh, this year, Zach.
38:52
Uh, wanna go to I think the game I'm looking forward to watching the most tonight, and that is the Memphis Grizzlies at the Indiana Pacers, where we will have the highest total of the NBA season it looks like.
39:03
Lot of movement on this this morning. Uh, 249 and a half is where we really saw this open up. I saw it get all the way out to 251 this morning before some buyback, uh, came back into play.
39:12
We're around 249 and a half, 250 in this game. I know you're looking at a side, though, here. Yeah, I'm laying two, uh, with Memphis in this game. I just think that their defense is going to be the story in this one.
39:23
This is a top 10 team in the league defensively, probably closer to top five, honestly.
39:27
And I do think that the Pacers, for as good as they have been, you know, since December, they can struggle on the defensive end of the floor.
39:32
So I'm a little bit worried about how Indiana's going to cover this Memphis team. I'm not really worried about, you know, the other, other way of that.
39:39
And I do think this is a game in which Ja Morant i- is going to light it up a little bit. I don't really think that there's a good defensive matchup for him on the Pacers.
39:46
I, I am looking at Morant to go over his assist total in tonight's game. He has been doing a really good job as a playmaker lately. And I, I have...
39:53
Yeah, like I said, I, I'm high on this Pacers team, but certain matchups are tough. This is one that I think that, you know, Haliburton could struggle. He really does struggle a- against elite defenses.
40:02
Zach, how about the best team in that central division? Cleveland going to New York, taking on Brooklyn. They're laying about 12 and a half, 13, depending on where you look.
40:10
Coming out of the break, I mean, look, the Nets, we talked about Philly and how they're trending in the wrong direction.
40:15
This is a team that should've been tanking in a lot of people's estimation from the start of the year. They somehow find a way to win games.
40:22
Not that they've got a great record, 20 and 34, but they're playing really competitive basketball. They're good against the number. Can they keep this one close? I think they are.
40:30
I, I, I got it at 13 and a half, but I would play it at 12 and a half. I think this is a really tough spot for Cleveland. They're playing without Dean Wade tonight. Ty Jerome is questionable.
40:38
And then you have those three all-stars coming back over from California, having to go back to the Brooklyn after, you know, a shorter break than most teams got.
40:46
Playing against a Nets team that is, you know, one and covered in six of their last seven games.
40:50
I just think this is a really difficult spot for a Cleveland team that was probably looking for a really easy game coming off the break.
40:55
And while this does look like an easy game [laughs] on paper, I do think the Nets team has, has proven to be competitive all year long. Bulls and Knicks tonight. Knicks laying 12, 12 and a half right now.
41:07
Uh, this total is one that Joe and I were discussing earlier. This one's a high one, too, 244, uh, for this game between Knicks and Bulls. I know no side or total play here for you, but you looking at a player prop?
41:18
Yeah, I, uh, playing Matas Buzelis over 17 and a half points, rebounds, and assists in this game. I just really like, you know, the uptick in playing time he's gotten lately.
41:26
He's played at least 26 minutes in, uh, six of his last seven games, and the only reason he didn't play 26 in that seventh game is that they lost by, like, 1,000 [laughs] in that game against the Pistons.
41:36
I, I think that he is going to get a healthy amount of playing time in this game. He's confident as a scorer right now, and I think he can chip in, you know, enough rebounds and assists to get this thing over.
41:44
It's a very low total for a player that's playing, you know, a good amount of playing time. Zach, how about this recent, uh, Bobby Portis news? The Clippers laying two, uh, two to two and a half in Milwaukee.
41:55
Are you gonna jump on the Clippers? I'm thinking about it. I was actually leaning Clippers in that game. I, I need to look into it a little bit more.
42:02
I do think that there's a good chance I will end up playing Los Angeles in that one.
42:05
I just love the way that the Clippers defend, and I think that this Bucks team can be, you know, pretty disastrous offensively when Lillard's not hitting shots. Uh, I'm w-...
42:13
Zach, do you think this news got out a little early, uh, to some people? Is that why we've seen the movement in this game? I was looking hard at the Clippers, too, when they were catching a point and a half.
42:21
Now we've moved all the way to Clippers, too, which I thought was especially odd after we saw Giannis practice yesterday, and it looked like he was maybe g- uh, trending upwards toward play.
42:32
I'm wondering if maybe some of this news got out here about Bobby Portis, 'cause, uh, I'm with you. I, this might actually bring me to a play on the Clippers.
42:38
I don't necessarily love the idea of laying points, but especially if there's a chance Giannis doesn't go, this is a g- this is a great, uh, number, 'cause this is gonna fly up from there if Giannis somehow gets ruled out.
42:48
Yeah, I'm guessing that's the case. And obviously if Portis had time to release a statement- Right... he's known about it for a little bit. So I think that people definitely knew. Someone tell me next time.
42:56
What the hell? [laughs] Zach, any thoughts, uh, before we wrap it up on this Orlando-Atlanta game? I, I know Kelly likes to give me a hard time. I'm kinda high on the Hawks right now.
43:06
I think the Magic have just been in an absolute free fall downward spiral. And, you know, Atlanta had their own little free fall losing eight in a row, but since then they've won four out of six.
43:14
Even in their two losses in those six, they were both by a point. Atlanta put up 125 or more in each of those games. Orlando stinks on the road. I think it's a good spot to, uh, take Atlanta money line.
43:24
What are your thoughts on that contest? Honestly, I was looking to Orlando hoping that this would be the spot in which Jalen Suggs would return, but seeing him on that injury report makes me wanna stay off completely.
43:34
And if I were to take anything, I would be with you, and I'd back the Hawks.
43:37
I, I, I think that the, once we see Suggs back for Orlando, that team's going to start to look again like a, a top five team in the Eastern Conference.
43:44
So I'm not too worried about them longer term, but I do not know when he's coming back. Yeah, I, I kinda, I, I feel the same way as you, Zach, but I, I gotta see it a little bit first 'cause it's been ugly.
43:53
Uh, favorite futures bet if you had to make one right now, Zach Cohen? Honestly, I, I'd go back to De'Andre Hunter, sixth man of the year, because he did come off the bench for Cleveland last game.
44:04
I think a lot of people were worried about him starting the rest of the season for the Cavaliers.
44:08
He has been the best sixth man in the league this season, so if he does stay in that role the rest of the way, I think he's gonna win. I love it. Zach, appreciate the time, man. Thanks so much for hopping on.
44:17
Thanks, guys. Make sure you follow him on Twitter @bettingonx. Zach Cohen, VSiN senior editor. I'll tell you what, Kelly.
44:23
Favorite futures bet, I think I'm gonna tail one of yours at the break here and place Toronto over 27 and a half wins. Like it. I love it. Like it. More Numbers Game up next. He's Kelly Bedlam. I'm Joe Seralla.
44:32
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