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Feb 24, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 24, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 24, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. So on those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSIN. And that's the name of the sushi restaurant, and that's how you get there.
0:11
[laughs] Oh, good Monday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSIN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander back in the fold.
0:24
Kelly Biblin alongside. Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. How you doing, man? Doing great. How are you? I'm good. Uh, let me thank, uh, Joe Serallo for being here for, uh, two weeks. Yeah.
0:34
Uh, were you able to make direct eye contact with him at this distance? Uh, he's, he's, he's too beautiful. It just hurts to look at him. He's like the sun, just to look at him directly. You might melt. Exactly, yeah.
0:44
How was he able to, uh, host this show while also playing at, in Delray at the, uh, same time? Would he fly back and forth in big time tennis? Is that where Taylor was at? Yeah. I didn't even realize that. No.
0:54
DBO pulling in big names these days. Explains why he, uh, he lost to, uh, Foki- Djokovic/Fokina in the semis. Wow. He, he- He was tired... he owns Delray Beach, right? He d- yeah.
1:03
Th- no, that is a big get for Delray, you're right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. To have Taylor Fraser. Yeah. Um, well, uh, I'm back, and we got a great show. Thanks to Kelly Biblin's, uh, epic producing here.
1:12
Uh, Todd Wishnev at the end of the show, baby. I might be responsible for that one. Can't wait to talk to Toddy.
1:18
Uh, Megapod co-host, of course, the great Todd Wishnev, and the, uh, co-star of the Showtime docuseries Action. Todd will be here to talk college basketball.
1:26
He is on quite the heater in in-game betting in college basketball. But I just wanna get a heat check from him as we are now, what is it, three weeks, three weeks before Selection Sunday? Yeah.
1:37
Uh, his thoughts on who can actually win this whole thing in college basketball, who can win the title, sleepers, uh, teams that really have no shot in his opinion, though others think they do.
1:49
Uh, Wes Reynolds coming off a golf runner-up performance. God, does he stink at golf betting. Terrible. He's awful. Uh, you been hitting that branch yet? Get it home, Wes.
1:57
Uh, Wes Reynolds will join us to talk golf and college basketball as well. We'll talk NBA awards. Carl Sack will join us to talk National Basketball Association. And I will, uh, start the show with a couple things.
2:07
I will do a s- a Major League Baseball season win total coming up.
2:11
The same segment that, uh, gave you the Texas Rangers over two years ago, when they ended up soaring over and winning the World Series, and then the last year, the Padres soaring over.
2:21
I have my favorite season win total of the year coming up, and it is an under. Which, which you have not discussed before, right? I have not discussed it before. Okay. No. That was a- No...
2:30
that was a Kelly question when he sent it over. That's all it was. I was like, "I don't think he, we've brought this up before, but..." No. No, it's always a post-vacation thing.
2:37
Uh, by the way, that sushi thing I do has also now become a tradition unlike any other when I get back from vacation. Mid-sentence- That's right [laughs]... kinda thing.
2:43
Yeah, you guys turn off the mic, I was talking about it. [laughs] All right, can we start though, we're back from vacation here. Uh, I wanna start with the college basketball formula. Are we allowed to do that?
2:52
Let's do it. All right. So this is a tried and true tradition here on A Numbers Game. Uh, everybody does college basketball formulas now. Yeah. Have you noticed this, Kelly? Yes, I have.
3:01
Uh, have you noticed that we were the first to do it? I think you noticed that as well.
3:05
Um, I'm gonna say this, this, for those who are listening for the first time on SiriusXM 158, 'cause I wanna always go back to sort of if you're listening for the first time, this is, we've been doing this throughout the course of A Numbers Game, before that the Beating the Book podcast, before that the Betting Dork podcast.
3:22
Essentially, what the point of this is, is to sort of guide you towards making proper futures bets to win it all in college basketball, and to steer you away from the notion that this March Madness of ours, this great American tradition, ends up being this upset-filled thing.
3:41
It is, but just for the first weekend. That's the thing, right? Our image of, uh, Jim Valvano going around and hugging all his players in 1983 is not actually a thing. It was back then.
3:53
It isn't now, because the chalk ends up rising. It goes Chalk McChalkerson when it gets to the Sweet 16 and beyond.
3:59
And so when trying to identify a potential champion, here are the sort of param- here are the criteria that has been met for decades now. We have six categories. Let me just review them again for the first time for some.
4:12
Uh, last 34 champs, Kelly, the last 34, have had more assists than turnovers. That makes sense, right? Yeah. Yeah, that's pretty good. That helps. That helps. It helps to win basketball games. [laughs] It does help.
4:21
[laughs] Uh, 32 of the last 34 champs had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience. Oh, look, there's two exceptions. 32 of the last 34 had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience prior to the year they won this.
4:35
I know a lot of people are like, "Wait a minute, he's in the Sweet 16 now." On the way there, yeah, it doesn't count this year. I'm saying in prior years. The exceptions,
4:43
2014 UConn Huskies, Kevin Ollie did not have any Sweet 16 experience before the Huskies won that year.
4:49
And couple years ago, not a couple years ago, but last year, well, no, yeah, that is two years ago, 2023 when Dan Hurley won with UConn, he did not have any prior Sweet 16 coaching experience.
5:01
So those are the two exceptions to that. 28 of the last 29 champs went in the tournament with at least three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI.
5:10
I know we don't really use RPI anymore, but that's how far back this goes. Uh, hold that thought.
5:14
We'll get to, uh, a few teams this year that, that, uh, pr- that e- that excludes from being part of this formula or qualifying anyway. Last 29 champs had a top 75 strength of schedule.
5:26
That comes into play sometimes, particularly for teams out west. 21 of the last 22 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.
5:35
The only exception, Kelly, the 2014 UConn Huskies, the Shabazz Napier-led 2014 UConn Huskies, who are the exception to so many rules. Yeah.
5:44
And then, uh, this last one, I think this is actually 20, yeah, this is also 21 of the last 22 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The only exception here, the 2021 Baylor Bears.
5:59
The Baylor Bears were an exception to this one as well.
6:02
By the way, the, uh, th- the three teams, the three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI, that exception was the UConn Huskies from 2014 as well So we have, uh, so the UConn Huskies of 2014 were the exceptions in three of these, and then the only other ones were Hurley as a, as hadn't been a Sweet 16 coach in 2023, and Baylor in adjusted defensive efficiency, 22nd, uh, back in 2021.
6:26
So those are the only other exceptions to this.
6:28
So it then begs the question, who right now, three weeks before Selection Sunday, who qualifies as we post up the odds, by the way, right now, Auburn is your short shot just by a tick shorter than Duke.
6:40
Auburn's plus 360, Duke plus 370, and then it's Houston eight to one, Florida plus 850. Bama leads the double digit parade at 12 to one. Who qualifies? Auburn qualifies. Three teams qualify at this very moment.
6:55
Auburn qualifies. Uh, Bruce Pearl, no surprise to, uh, those who have been following college basketball intently this year that Auburn is the number one qualifier, as is Duke. No surprise there.
7:06
Auburn, by the way, first in adjusted offensive efficiency, uh, at KenPom, Duke second, and also fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom. They are the two easy-peasy ones that get through easily.
7:19
Uh, and yes, John Shire did coach to the Elite Eight last year, in case you were wondering about that.
7:24
Uh, Bruce Pearl, by the way, Sweet 16 in Milwaukee, Sweet 16 twice, and an Elite Eight at Tennessee, a Final Four at Auburn. Remember that team that somehow lost to Virginia?
7:34
I think that was the Kyle Guy game, where Kyle Guy got fouled to beat Auburn and hit three free throws.
7:40
Um, and the only other team that qualifies beyond Auburn and Duke right now at this moment, and this is subject to change, is Houston.
7:49
The Houston Cougars right now, seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency, third in adjusted defensive efficiency.
7:55
Uh, Kelvin Sampson, of course, has been to, uh, just a myriad of, uh, Sweet 16s, Elite Eights, Final Four along the way as well, both at Oklahoma and at Houston.
8:05
Um, Houston's bugaboo up until this weekend was that they had not beaten three teams, or th- had three wins, I should say more accurately, in the top 10% of RPI, but they beat Iowa State, who was without, uh, two of their b- their top two scorers.
8:20
So Houston now qualifies for the top of this as well. So it's Auburn, Duke, and Houston. Now you ask yourself, "Okay, that's it? Those are the only three teams that can win this tournament according to this formula?"
8:33
Well, at the very moment, yes. But as I said, subject to change for some teams. Iowa State barely misses. Iowa State right now, 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom, ninth adjusted D.
8:48
Um, so they are really the, the team that is closest really to being in there, along with, by the way, uh, Arizona, who's 19th and 18th.
8:59
They qualify in both the KenPom categories, adjusted offense and adjusted defense, but they've only beaten Texas Tech and Iowa State, top 10% of RPI.
9:08
They still do play Iowa State again and Kansas, so they can play themselves in. Wait, who was that? That's Arizona. Arizona, okay. So Iowa State and Arizona are the two teams closest to joining Auburn, Duke, and Houston.
9:23
Now, if you're asking yourself, "What about Florida?" [laughs] Well- I'm sitting over here looking through the other teams. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
9:29
Florida, the only, the issue with Florida, and they can't get over, like un- unlike Iowa State and Arizona, which can actually play themselves into this, Todd Golden has never coached in the Sweet 16 before.
9:38
So if you believe in that, and again, there's been two exceptions, right? Kevin Ollie in 2014, Danny Hurley in 2023. Todd Golden has never coached in the Sweet 16 before.
9:48
So that's why Florida doesn't qualify, 'cause they're fourth and seventh, adjusted offense, adjusted defense. Right. Maryland, 17th and 20th at KenPom, offense, defense respectively.
9:58
Kevin Willard has never coached in a Sweet 16. That's why they don't qualify and can't. And there's a host of other teams, Texas Tech, uh, Grant McCasland has never coached in a Sweet 16.
10:09
Michigan State is very close, by the way, and Michigan State, of course, with, uh, Tom Izzo. Has he been there? [laughs] A couple times. Uh, Izzo, by the way, a champ, a runner-up, six Final Fours, two Elite Eights,
10:24
five Sweet 16s. Yeah, not bad. Yeah. So what you got Bama, I'm just over on KenPom. So Bama outside because of the defensive rating, right? Well, let me go through these systematically. Oh, okay.
10:32
So, so Michigan State, 23rd and 12th. So Michigan, so if Iowa State and Arizona are the closest to joining Auburn, Duke, and Houston, Michigan State's right behind them as well, right? 23rd and 12th. Um,
10:46
Bama, you're, what you were saying is right. Mm. Bama, there, there's a couple teams here. Bama and Tennessee, right? Yeah, yeah. Bama's third adjusted offense, but they're 47th in adjusted D.
10:56
So you can't even, like, get to Nate Oats and crew for, to b- to get qualified for this. Same with Tennessee at this point, 'cause Tennessee's 29th. That's tight, though. It, closer. 29th in offense, first in defense.
11:09
First in D. Yeah. But the problem is, if you, I mean, if you can't put the bask- you can't put the ball in the basket, you're going to, it's, it's trouble. Mm-hmm. You can't win six games in a row in a tournament.
11:19
Um, Louisville, Pat Kelsey has never coached in a Sweet 16. Clemson is 16th and 26th. Michigan is 26th and 23rd with Dusty May, who of course famously got to the Final Four at FAU. Yeah. Great call by Will Hill.
11:31
Who, who? So it's Auburn, Duke, Houston, with Iowa State, Arizona, and Michigan State the closest on the outside looking in. We'll update this every Monday.
11:40
By the way, shout out to, uh, NJNY on Twitter for doing his own thing on this as well. Yeah. Keeping himself updated and keeping the folks on Twitter updated on this.
11:47
Coming back, Major League Baseball season win total next on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Let's start off with a blanket offer here.
12:04
VSiN Pro subscription, your intro offer. Sign up now for as little as $9.99 at vsin.com/subscribe. What does that include?
12:12
Well, daily best bets from every host, every guest, every sport on the network, exclusive betting splits, upcoming March Madness betting guide, all of our betting guides.
12:22
That's just for $9.99, as little as that, at vsin.com/subscribe. Check it out Were you happenin' to watch any college basketball yesterday? You see the, uh, UConn-St. John's game by any chance?
12:32
Yeah, I saw, I saw a few minutes of it. Um, there was this moment in the first half, I don't know if anybody caught this, but Gus Johnson, how do you feel about Gus Johnson these days? I love him. I love him.
12:41
I know there's a lot of mixed feelings, but you know what? Gus brings that energy, and I love it. I used to love Gus Johnson. Yeah. I used to love him.
12:49
I, I do feel like at some point he became a character- caricature of himself. Right. He feels like he's chronically under-prepared for stuff.
13:00
Um, but you know, when there's an exciting game at the end, we love hearing Gus do his thing. But anyway, yesterday there was like a lull in the middle, in the middle of the first half of this U- of this, uh, UConn-St.
13:09
John's game.
13:10
And it was a timeout, but they didn't go to commercial, and the color commentator, and forgive me, I can't remember who the color commentator is, but, uh, [laughs] Gus just decided at one point, I guess, uh, U- UConn was up and St.
13:23
John's started to assert themselves and they were building a lead, and there was a lull and they were, like, uh, in the...
13:28
They were having a, you know, they were on the bench, but then they were getting back on the court, and it was an awkward silence, and Gus goes, "Rick Pitino's dad, a truck driver, had back problems, then came back and the mafia wanted to take 10% from him, just like Rick Pitino wants his 10% now."
13:45
[laughs] I'm like, what? That's pretty good. [laughs] What? First of all, the, the Italian connection aside for a second, like, what did that have anything to do? Like, was he waiting to say this? I have no idea, man.
13:57
Was, did he have this in his holster for he's like, "I can't wait to use my mafia thing coming up"? Probably like an off-season, like, Pitino line when I need it if he's doing well.
14:06
What was, uh, "And now Rick Pitino wants his 10%..." 10% of what, Gus? What are we talking about exactly? And it was awkward. The color commentator was like, "Uh-" Coming for his pound of flesh from the NCAA.
14:15
[laughs] Basically what it was. Yeah. Basically what it was. We get tweets at Beating the Book. Oh, maybe I should save these, so, 'cause I wanna do the baseball thing real quick. I'll save these, okay? We'll get tweets.
14:24
We get tons of tw- tweets from everybody. Appreciate it. We got your tweets. We're saving them. We do have your tweets.
14:28
[laughs] I see all of them, and there are tons of them, but I wanna do the baseball thing 'cause I don't wanna run out of time.
14:34
So this is a, uh, tried and true segment that we do after vacation every year too, which is I give my, uh, favorite baseball pre-flop season win total of the year.
14:43
Two years ago, again, it was the, uh, the Texas Rangers over 81 and a half.
14:48
Uh, they finished 90 and 72, and they won the World Series, so actually I felt bad about it afterwards that they didn't have them winning the World Series. Mm. But they soared over the total.
14:56
Padres last year, over 81 and a half. They went 93 and 69. So again, you beat one by eight and a half games, beat, uh, last year's by 11 and a half. This year I'm going under on a particular play.
15:08
Um, and for those who, uh, weren't spoiled by it here on the screen here, let me just sort of explain how, how I come to my season win totals, which is...
15:15
'Cause when you look at season win totals in any preview article, what you will generally read or what you will hear in mainstream media is, oh, well this team lost these players, they acquired these players.
15:27
This is why I feel like they're going to go over or under, that kind of thing. And look, there's nothing wrong with that. Uh, it's valid obviously. But I have it ranked sort of third in when I do things.
15:37
It's like the third thing I talk about.
15:38
The first couple things are sort of how serious baseball handicappers go about this kind of stuff, and the beauty of baseball season win totals more than any other sport is that it's 162 points of data, right? 162 games.
15:52
So you can overcome negative variance if your handicap is good, right?
15:58
Unlike professional football where you're only playing a 17 game season, unlike college football, God forbid, where you're playing even fewer games, if you have a bad few weeks, your bet is sunk more often than not.
16:10
Baseball, you could have a bad month, you could still overcome it and still win if your handicap is good.
16:16
So the first thing is, and that's why, so that's why we keep doing it every year, and it's one of the best sort of betting vehicles to this day.
16:22
The first thing is with baseball teams, uh, there is something called the Bill James Pythagorean theorem. This is not the Pythagorean theorem you learned in your geometry class, Kelly. Mm-hmm.
16:31
A squared plus B squared equals C squared, by the way, for those of you scoring at home. You knew that. Is that, uh, what, what triangle again? Yeah. Uh, that, the triangle, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Kelly? Yeah.
16:40
But which, which triangle? Which type of triangle? Oh, was that the isosceles triangle? That's what I can't remember. Yeah. Isosceles? Anyway, it's not that. I know what we're talking about though.
16:47
And I'm gonna spare you the Bill James Pythagorean theorem, but essentially what it is, is a team scores this many runs given a season, they give up this many runs, and there is a tried and true formula, talking about tried and true formulas from the college basketball segment before, where you can then translate that to an expected win percentage and therefore an expected record.
17:10
Every year teams over-perform or under-perform their actual expected record based on runs produced and runs allowed in the final standings.
17:19
So last year, for instance, let's talk about the Pythagorean theorem, so it's very easy. It's just runs produced, runs allowed. The biggest over-performers in the 2024 baseball season were the Tampa Bay Rays and the St.
17:31
Louis Cardinals, who over-performed what their record ought to have been by seven runs.
17:36
By the way, this graphic is a little confusing because what I'm, what their record is, is posted, their last year's record is posted on the left, what their season win total is, is, for this year is posted in parentheses.
17:47
But just trust me, the biggest over-performers were Tampa Bay and St. Louis by seven runs. The biggest under-performers were the Royals, Cubs, Reds, and Mariners.
17:57
Six runs, six runs, five runs, five runs respectively, under-performing what their expected record should have been, what their expected win percentage based on Bill James Pythagorean theorem should have been.
18:07
Which again, is a very simple thing. Runs produced, runs allowed. This is what your record should have been. This is what you ended up. Now, that's one level of it.
18:15
What that doesn't explain, that explains you scored this many, you gave up this many, this is what your record ought to be, but it doesn't explain how you got to those runs, how you got to those runs allowed, and that oftentimes, uh, is referred to as something called sequencing or base runs.
18:31
There's all kinds of variations of this. And what it essentially is, I always use the most basic thing, which is, you know, just to give an example of that.
18:39
Let's say you have f- or let's say in a given half inning you have three walks, a home run, and three strikeouts, okay? Mm-hmm. All right, let's say you're on offense.
18:48
Uh, if you have the three walks, then you hit the home run, and then you have the three strikeouts, you get four runs. But, um, if you have the, what is it?
18:57
Uh, if you have the home run first, and then you have the three walks and the three strikeouts, you only get one run.
19:02
So essentially based on the events of any given half inning, both on offense and defense, there is an expected run value, and sometimes you get super lucky about, uh, over, you know, the sequencing of that.
19:13
Sometimes you get unlucky, and that's over a course of a season, both offensively and defense. The most fortunate of all of those teams in the year 2024 was by far the Cleveland Guardians.
19:26
Yes, can I call them our Cleveland Guardians? Sorry, Adam Burke, stolen for two months. The Cleveland Guardians were 11 wins better based on sequencing than they ought to have been.
19:38
Texas was the next closest, six wins better than they ought to have been. By the way, the least fortunate, um, Chicago White Sox by nine games, even though they stink. They were worse than they should have been.
19:51
Boston, Seattle, and the White Sox also in that list. So what does all of that mean? Uh, what it means is, is then based on these kinds of things,
20:00
while the average article or news story you hear about projected, you know, previews of Major League Baseball teams projected into the coming season talk about, well, they acquire this player, they are losing this player.
20:12
They don't start at the proper baseline. What this allows us to do is start at the proper baseline.
20:16
So my favorite play this year, cutting to the chase, is the Cleveland Guardians under 82.5 for a team that won 92 games last year, went 92 and 70, and who, by the way, we famously had for most wins in March, April at 65 to one, and we came one out short of winning that.
20:35
We had them for the most wins in the month of May. We came one win away from winning that. Loved the Cleveland Guardians last year, but part of knowing them as intimately as we did is that this stuff checks out.
20:47
Uh, the Cleveland Guardians, while their season win total has been adjusted, to me it has not been adjusted enough.
20:54
Because on top of all of that, Kelly, uh, having watched them with the eye test, one of the things you know is they did lose Josh Naylor, who got them out of so many jams offensively with, with a big bat last year.
21:07
And they also lose, uh, by the way, they lose Naylor to the Diamondbacks, and they lose Andrés Jiménez to the Blue Jays.
21:13
Andrés Jiménez is a three-year in a row Gold Glover at second base, uh, who was also a clutch hitter at times too, but they really lose the defense. So with the Guardians,
21:23
the, the problem is, is that they are a team that had really average, and I'm being nice,
21:29
starting pitching last year, and a bullpen that bailed them out time and time again, until they didn't, by the way, uh, towards the end of the season and then in the postseason.
21:38
But essentially a formula in baseball where you have, you know, average at best, and again, I'm being kind, starting pitching, um, an elite bullpen for a season, timely hitting.
21:52
They were top 10 in runners in scoring pos- with runners in scoring position last year.
21:56
They were middling average, 17th in WRC+, boosted by a rare one-year blip, by the way, it should be mentioned, in ballpark factor at Progressive Field. Um, their starting pitching ranked 24th in fielding independent.
22:11
That is just not a formula that is sustainable, and I'm going under on the Guardians. Under 82.5 is my favorite Major League Baseball season win total of the year.
22:22
I think it's been adjusted, sure, but not adjusted enough for all of those reasons. And by the way, at places like DraftKings, you can bet ranges. 74 to 79 wins is at plus 320. I don't hate that bet at all.
22:35
That's my favorite Major League Baseball- Nice... season win total of the year, as we do this year in, year ago.
22:39
I know the Baseball Manifesto I used to write had many of these, but we've just sort of whittled it down to a favorite, uh, these days. Coming back, Carl Sack on the NBA.
22:48
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23:09
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23:22
Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet, promo code ANG. Check it out. We do get tweets at Beating The Book. I promised I'd deliver. Thank you all for, uh, the, uh, the kind tweets.
23:36
Um, where do we begin, Kelly? Let's begin at the start, shall we? This is from Teasers and Parlays.
23:41
"Gil coming off a much-deserved vacation and baseball opening within a month means one thing, most monthly wins are back, baby." Oh, I cannot wait for this.
23:50
This is, this was the greatest thing last year, the monthly wins. We gotta have odds posted, right? I looked briefly yesterday.
23:57
I did not see any, but maybe I wasn't looking in the right place 'cause I didn't look, I didn't scour. But I looked at one spot, it was not there yet. Yeah, I don't see it. DraftKings yet.
24:04
Um, but yes, we will do it March, April, May, June. It was the most fun thing we ever did with baseball.
24:09
Uh, Jesse Welch, "Hey, Kelly, when you go to, uh, bring Todd Wisniewski on today, make sure you don't call him Todd Worrell by mistake, although I'd love to hear exactly what he got for winning the Rolaids Relief Award [laughs] in 1986."
24:19
Yeah, you missed me calling the wrong John last week. That was entertaining. What do you mean calling the wrong John?
24:24
Oh, we, uh, we had a guest slip up last week, and I gave, uh, I saved the same number for two different guys with the first name John. So you-- Gil and I have not talked about this off-air at all.
24:37
Uh- Oh, I think I saw this and- Yeah, yeah, yeah... it crept into my, uh, yeah. So, like, I'm texting with, I think I'm texting John Fanta, and I'm texting with him, booking for a guest spot. "Hey, John, how you doing?"
24:45
"I am doing great." Yeah, blah, blah, blah. We bring him on. We're talking off the air with him before, "Hey, John, how's it going? Blah, blah, blah." Soon as we bring him on air- I'm not John Fanta, this is John Martin.
24:55
[laughs] Oh, that's outstanding. It w- it was, it was as [laughs] I mean, I, I've had worse producer mistakes in my life. That was as bizarre and odd of one as I've ever... bizarre of one, I think.
25:06
You, you should just continue that as a John bit, so when you invite Legasa on, bring, like, Vontobel on- Oh, it was-... and act like you're talking to Legasa... hey, you know what? The audience had a great time with it.
25:14
[laughs] I got a lot of tweets all way. What was funny is we ended up having, including John Vontobel, we ended up having Johns every day that week on the show. Yeah.
25:23
So it was like, yeah, yeah, the audience was having a lot of fun with that. 3jackh3131, "Welcome back from vacation, Gil.
25:29
The, uh, the Joe Serallo did a fine job covering for you, and Kelly came up with a new segment called Which John," oh, "Which John Is On The Phone. [laughs] Happy Monday to you and all of yours.
25:37
Ryan Hyatt, "Great to have the old pro Gil filling in for [laughs] Joe Serallo on a numbers game with Kelly. Don't worry, Gil, just be yourself and Kelly will handle all the '70s, '80s pop culture references.
25:46
Let him play to his strengths. You'll do fine on the big stage." [laughs] J Law, "Welcome back. When will you be releasing your best MLB win total this year?" Just did. Jasonh11, "Welcome back, Kelly.
25:56
Kelly and Joe did a great job in your absence. What's the tennis landscape looking like the next couple weeks?" Uh, five tournaments globally going on right now.
26:03
I have a couple tennis picks, by the way, coming up, uh, for later in the day, which we will get to. Uh, and then in two weeks, Indian Wells, tennis' fifth major. Cannot wait. You going? I'm going, baby. Nice.
26:17
First weekend I'm going. Can't wait. Uh, let's talk some basketball. Carl Sack joins us, everybody. Uh, you may know him as the NBA guru from his Dr. Bob days.
26:26
Um, but these days he is applying his trade at killercappers.com. Uh, we check him out now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, man? Uh, I'm, my name's Carl Williams, not Carl Sack.
26:37
[laughs] Yeah, there was a lot of these jokes, Gil. There's a lot of these jokes. [laughs] Thanks for playing along, Carl. Love that.
26:46
Uh, Carl Wil- by the way, Carl "The Truth" Williams back in the day, boxer, uh, back when they showed heavyweight fights in real time on network TV.
26:54
Um, Carl Sack, ladies and gentlemen, who moves lines when he releases picks in the National Basketball Association. Uh, I wanna ask you this, because I am privy to your plays.
27:07
You are, I know you primarily through the years as the greatest NBA totals bettor I know. I know some people say others are, I'm not disparaging anybody else, but for me, I have followed you for years and years.
27:18
You're the greatest I've ever seen. Sides, would you say not quite as good for you over time, and if so, why? I think sides are a little bit harder to beat, but, um,
27:33
so, so my ROI on sides is probably a little bit lower. Um, I, I just think, I don't know, the totals market is weaker. Is weaker? Okay. And by the way, I didn't know if that was true or not.
27:45
You're saying it is, but just not by much. It's just a little. Not by much. Okay. Yeah, probably 54 and a half percent on sides, 55 and a half percent on totals. All right.
27:54
This is over, by the way, for people, 'cause there are gonna be some new bettors out there like, "54%, 55%, that doesn't sound that good."
27:59
When you do it over thousands and thousands of picks, you are minting money doing that. Um, so for sure that's good.
28:06
By the way, killercappers.com, uh, is the, uh, is the website for the picks, and for the, for the database it is... Uh, Killer Sports. killersports.com. killersports.com. Okay.
28:18
Um, let's start with the, uh, Warriors, close to my heart. Mm. Since the Jimmy Butler trade they are five and one. Thing or not a thing, Carl? Uh, they're playing well right now.
28:29
They're, they're a team that I've been betting on recently, and will probably continue to do so. Um, they'll get Kuminga back in the next couple of weeks. That'll help them.
28:38
But I've got them, I've got them rated pretty high right now, as, you know. We'll see if, uh, there's any off the court drama or anything that comes up, but right now they're playing well.
28:48
Um, do you do, you, I know you, you focus in on games on a day-to-day basis. I assume you have, maybe I shouldn't assume, but I, I, you have a sense of where you have teams in general ranked in a sort of pecking order.
29:01
Um, w- who do you have n- one, two, three, and what's the margin between them league wide? In the whole, uh, league wide right now, Oklahoma City... Well, and this is regular season ratings.
29:14
I think it, once it becomes the playoffs, the rotations change. They kind of, you know, starters get more minutes. Um,
29:22
but in terms of regular season ratings right now, I would say Oklahoma City one, uh, Cleveland two, Boston three. And what is the gap between Oklahoma City and Cleveland? Big? Um,
29:38
I make it about two and a half points now with Holmgren back. Um, yeah. All right. So- Now- Yeah, that's kinda large I would say. I don't know...
29:49
now does the, getting to your point about the post-season though, does the shrinkage of, of rotations, does that apply to OKC in a significant way at all? I think it is a little bit, so they're really deep.
30:06
That's their strength right now. Um, and that will help them a lot in the regular season, especially on back to back stuff like that. Um, but yeah, I think, I mean, that, that's the same thing with Cleveland too.
30:19
Cleveland's really deep. Um, I think a team, oh, trying to think of a, a team like, um, maybe Denver or, um,
30:30
uh, Indy or the Clippers, those are teams that maybe aren't quite as, Houston, those are teams that aren't quite as deep and will probably get a bump come playoff time.
30:42
Yeah, so the, I'm trying to, trying to articulate it. So the team, so teams that are deep,
30:48
it, going to a, a shrinking lineup isn't really a factor when it comes to the post-season, but a team that is not as deep gets a boost because you are emphasizing the smaller rotation anyway kind of thing.
31:01
Is that correct? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, I, I probably said it poor, you know, poorer than I could've, but that's, that's sort of the very strange puzzle of the NBA playoffs.
31:11
What, of those teams, like, d- does, does Cleveland worry you? Does OKC worry you? Because again, we think of Boston and we've seen Boston win a title, we're, we're obviously, we have the muscle memory on that.
31:23
Do you buy into the fact that OKC is, you know, 'cause the, the mainstream media will be like, "Well, they're young, they haven't, you know, they haven't gotten far before," uh, close, they haven't flirted with the promised land.
31:33
Cleveland, maybe they're just a regular season juggernaut. Which worries you more? Um, you know, they both got some good playoff experience last year. Um,
31:48
I guess I would say maybe Cleveland worries me a little bit more, only because the, they, they got to the second round last year, but they weren't healthy. Um,
32:00
I mean, to be honest with you, like, I think either team could win the title this year. Um, uh, they, they, you know... [sighs] Yeah, I- Is there, is there a bet for you right now on, on the title winner?
32:14
No, I don't, I don't get too much into futures. Yeah. Um, i- if I had to, I would maybe take a flyer on Cleveland to win the East. Um, they, they seem to be, last I checked, they were, like, really plus money.
32:30
Um, and they're look- looking like they're gonna have home court right now, and, um, I think that if, if it ends up being Boston and Cleveland in the East finals, um, that seems to be a really good series.
32:44
Yeah, I feel like, uh, for, for being the best, for having the best record in the NBA, we're still kind of all sleeping on them in a, in a contextual kind of way. What did you end up with today?
32:54
Um, today's card I'm not s- terribly excited about. I would say the best thing currently on the card is, is
33:03
kind of a hold your nose, but it's, uh, the Brooklyn, Washington under about 215 and a half I'm seeing right now.
33:10
I think with Simmons, uh, being traded and DLo being out last game and tonight as well, their offense, I don't know where it comes from.
33:19
Those are their point guards and, um, yeah, I think they're gonna struggle to score some points. Under Brooklyn, Washington, right now at 214 and a half from Carl.
33:28
Sac killersports.com, killercappers.com if you wanna check out all his picks and sign up there. Thank you, Carl. Appreciate it. Carl Sack, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Um, we gotta talk some NBA awards.
33:41
Obviously you talked about Wembanyama last week. Kelly's got some stuff to say. That's next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:17
We get tweets at Beating the Book, always appreciate the feedback. Uh, this is from Wet Willy Colon. "Welcome back, Gilly.
34:23
While you were gone, a special numbers game investigation concluded that Kelly slipped up and let the big guy Dustin Sweetelson in on the special sushi spot. Any truth to this?" No, Kelly did not slip up. That's right.
34:34
Thank you, Gil. It was someone else who slipped up. [laughs] It was, it was also, that was also the whole point of Dustin br- I didn't know he was gonna bring it up, and he brought it up just to clear my name.
34:42
Just to clear your name. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Which, uh, well, I was like, "Where are we going with this? Where are we going with this?" Here's how I, here's how I know Kelly didn't slip up.
34:48
I blindfolded him, gagged him, and threw him in the trunk. It's really, uh- That's how he got there...
34:52
I mean, I've said it 100 times, but it's really kind of just embarrassing where like I said again last night, I don't know the name of the damn place. [laughs] I ate there. I still don't know the name.
35:00
Ice Cold Gambler, "Gil is back. Kelly looking l- looking like he's on Ozempic. He must be staying on that workout program. Let's get Sporer on and talk some baseball." We absolutely will. And you know what helps?
35:10
When you combine both. [laughs] Working, working big, yeah. [laughs] Ozempic and work. Rick Ollier, yeah, you're looking great, man. Oh, thanks, dude.
35:17
What are you, what are you, what are you down to like two bills almost now? No, I wish. I wish. Oh, okay. Uh, 248. Let's go. Down from 316 in December 2023. Good for you, and you did it slowish, slowish. Yeah.
35:30
[laughs] Yeah, slowish. Yeah. But that's a good way to do it though. No, it is. It is. It is. Uh- Yeah, gym, man, the past six months, been kicking ass. Good for you. Three days in a row. Good for you.
35:38
Are ladies, like, banging down your door? Oh, obviously. You know that, Gil. [laughs] I don't even know how I got here this morning. Banging down his door, people. [laughs] Rick Ollier, "Thank God you're back.
35:49
No offense to the great Joe and Kelly, but I've been watching the Yacht Rock doc every day over the last two weeks from 10:00 to 12:00, and I don't know how much more Toto I can take." I did get to, uh...
35:57
I g- I got to play the fun role while Joe was in of, of the older guy who makes fun of n- uh, the younger guy not knowing anything, so like a '90s reference or whatever. Oh, yeah.
36:05
Like Space Jam came up and I was like, "See, Joe, this was a movie starring Michael Jordan." [laughs] Oh man, that's awesome. Shrek McFee, "Very surprised to see Houston in the criteria for March Madness.
36:16
Watch them closely. They always go four to five minutes with no points. Brutal to watch. Mizzou will be the team this year. #harvardofboonecounty." [laughs] Shr- Shr- Shrek, we onto you, bro. You only got one past us.
36:28
Yeah. I, we, it ain't happening again, man. It ain't happening again. I mean, I'm actually kind of impressed with- Um, I like-... with myself that you only got one by us, but- I like your stick-to-it-iveness.
36:36
Jeff- Yeah, keep trying... Jeff G, give me the hook. "Welcome back, young Gil. I'm sorry, but every year is, Arizona is either one of the teams that meet the requirements or just right there. By the way #wareagle."
36:45
Yeah, Arizona's always up there, you're right. But never to get there. Since the '90s. Was it 1996 when they won it all? With Miles Simon. Uh, Ben Handorf, "Welcome back, Gil.
36:57
Can you ask Wishnev when he comes on what he thinks about UC San Diego if they can make the tournament best ATS record in the country? 22 and four straight up," plus, uh, what is it?
37:07
Uh- Can't re- I don't want this is the last part. 0 plus 201 points ATS. I think they can make some noise if they can win the Big West Tournament.
37:14
UCSD, by the way, one of the most gorgeous campuses also in the United States of America. You know they have a talking tree on their campus, Kelly? Um- I don't know if you know that...
37:22
wait, do, who, did you do a tour there? I did. Why didn't I, why didn't I Google this once upon a time? I once was on the campus of UCSD. Okay, yeah, yeah.
37:29
And I was like, there's like a whole bui- wasn't there like a library in a tree or something? Yeah, it's a whole thing. [laughs] It's like absurd. I remember Googling it, being like, "This is ridiculous."
37:38
I would have flunked out in one semester. [laughs] It is so nice. I mean, like, I can't- I'm not wrong though, right? It's like a whole building's in a tree.
37:45
I don't know if the whole building's in a tree, but there's a talking tree Like something's in a tree Like you just walk around and the tree starts talking to you kind of thing. Oh, okay. I, I don't fucking copy.
37:51
Anyway, it's beautiful is the point. Anyway, we'll get to more of these 'cause I wanna get to obviously the biggest story when I was gone was, um, Victor Wembanyama.
37:59
Uh, because so many, uh, of us have bets for Victor, uh, winning Defense Player of the Year, obviously he will not now.
38:05
Uh, he did not play the, uh, required 65 games before he was diagnosed with deep, uh, vein thrombosis in his shoulder. And so he is done for the year.
38:16
And so it did all kinds of things with the betting market, which we'll get to. I just want to have the serious part real quick because you know how much I love an opportunity to talk about, uh, injuries like this.
38:26
Um [laughs]- Yeah, I was like, "Where's Gil when you need him?" Um, here's the thing.
38:29
This is a, this very serious matter because, um, the thing about blood clots is the worst thing that can happen is it becomes dislodged and then goes in your bloodstream and plants itself, uh, on your lungs.
38:45
And it becomes a pulmonary embolism, which is what happened to me the second time I ruptured my Achilles. Dislodged, blood clot dislodged, float, float up my bloodstream.
38:56
I had a saddle embolism and they said 24, 48 hours, if I had waited longer, I would've been a goner. How, how long after your injury did that take place? Great question.
39:07
I, uh, I had this surgery 'cause the injury doesn't matter, it's the surgery that causes it, right? So I had the surgery on a Friday, did a week of a numbers game. Yeah.
39:16
Came back the following Monday, so 10 days later, I realized I couldn't finish my thought or I had to throw it to Parles earlier than I wanted to, or to a guest earlier than I wanted to, and then realized I couldn't go 30 seconds without gasping for breath.
39:28
That, and that, that's what's- So with these athletes, right? Like the, the worst story is Chris Bosh, right? Chris Bosh, what you... With my case you could trace it back to one event. Yeah. Right?
39:39
So they, the, I had to go on blood thinners. They, first of all, they had to vacuum out half of it, half of the blood clot on my lungs, and then I had to go on blood thinners for a year to get the rest of it.
39:50
But because they could trace it back to a ruptured Achilles and the Achilles, and the subsequent surgery, they knew it was probably not a chronic condition, knock on wood.
39:57
Chris Bosh had to retire because he had a chronic condition of this. So the hope with Victor Wembanyama and the belief is that this is not going to be a chronic thing, knock on wood, hopefully not.
40:08
Because that would, you'd have to end your career because you can't, not only that, but like if you got cut you would bloo- you would bleed profusely, that kind of thing, right? Uh, yeah, yeah.
40:17
I, I mean, what they say is basically the bloo- once you're on the blood thinners- Yeah... if you're on them for- Oh, it's just ridiculous...
40:23
like, like Brian Wara- Windhorst did a great job breaking this down 'cause much like you he had suffered the same thing. Yeah. And he'd been covering all these athletes.
40:29
So as we've seen this in recent years, Brandon Ingram right around the same time. Yep. Just a few years ago, Asar Thompson last year. Okay, they got one. And Anderson, uh, Anderson, uh, was my man on the Cavaliers.
40:40
Varejao? Varejao. His career ended because of it. Yeah, yeah. And even if you hit one- Serena, Serena Williams had to deal with it... Serena. Yeah.
40:46
Yeah, so like if you hit one, as soon as you go on the blood thinners if you're an athlete, it's okay, you're out for months. Yeah. You're out for, and as long as you're on those you are out.
40:55
But a lot of these guys, the, uh, Asar, Asar Thompson, Brandon Ingram, it's one, okay, and then they were able to work their way back- Yeah... no problem. Mm-hmm. Problem is when you, once you have that second one- Oh...
41:04
Windhorst is saying- Yeah... you're basically on, you're on blood thinners for life and your career's basically over. Because you can't risk it again. Yeah, yeah. That's right.
41:10
Because one is a n- one is a, uh, an anomaly, two is a pattern. Which we, which if we sit here, when is, what does Wem be? 21 years old right now? Oh.
41:18
Like we sit here with him at 21, I, Gil, it's terrifying to me just as an NBA fan of what is it? I don't care if it happens in the next year, what if it happens even four years from now? Right.
41:28
You're losing a kid in his prime. For him as a person, right? For the NBA as a league, for fans who love basketball, right? In that order. Yeah. Yes.
41:36
And it's just, you know, you, you don't, you just hope that it's, it's not that. So assuming it's not that, we, we, you know, he'll be back for next season.
41:43
But it does of course then call into question where did your mind go to with Defensive Player of the Year because I so badly, I know you had Montesano on- Yeah, yeah, yeah... 'cause he told me he was on.
41:53
I, this is why I love Montesano so much. He just speaks factually. He does not give his opinion, and I love that about him. Yeah, you wa- you wanna know where my mind went as soon as I got to the...
42:03
Yeah, I mean, look, as a basketball fan it was so much of what we just talked about going through my head first, and then we started thinking about the bets, right? Couple things.
42:11
The, uh, well, okay, this is why you probably wanna avoid laying minus 200 preseason on any NBA award [laughs] where you gotta play 65 games. Yeah. Yeah. Like there's a lot of that.
42:21
And oh boy, Montesano and his theories are be- are, are completely live now- Yeah... with the Oklahoma City Thunder. And it's a... I, I mean, Gil, I think we're gonna see a chaotic race down the stretch- Well-...
42:33
with the, how the o- odds will move... so here's a little bit from Montesano. Counting stats, defensive rebounds per game, plus blocks, um, plus steals.
42:43
The odds of favorite, the odds-on favorite for, uh, Defense Player of the Year, Jaren Jackson, at minus 105, 7.6 when you add up those things. Rebounds per game, blocks, steals.
42:53
SGA is 7.2, so Jackson 7.6, SGA 7.2, and SGA is 30 to 1, right? Jackson is minus 105, SGA is 30 to 1. Um, but there's, you know, there's tons of this other stuff which is, you know, if you go through it, uh,
43:11
SGA has been playing great on defense without Chet, without Chet Holmgren for so many games, and then Hartenstein was out for 17 to 18 games also. Yeah.
43:19
Experts love to talk about how rim protection for Defensive Player of the Year candidates, uh, you know, love to talk about rim protection for, for the Defense Player of the Year award.
43:27
Two rim protectors were out, in other words, for several games. Many games were they were both out at the same time. And their three-point defense is great.
43:36
OKC is number one in that, and he's on the perimeter all the time. Now obviously Dort and Williams are, too, but he plays more. SGA for a- I mean, there's tons of, he gave you guys when he was on air with you.
43:47
It should be SGA, but here's the thing. I trust NBA voters the least to pay attention to this kind of stuff. Yeah, it's tough. This kind of logic. It's, it's also tough with it.
43:57
Like the perimeter, I, I, I, I mean, Michael and I, uh, will attack this stuff pretty similar with looking at the stats that we look at.
44:03
It's just what's tough with the Thunder, this is, this is gonna be the tough part of this conversation, is they're gonna end up putting up historic defensive, uh, rating levels in what we're gonna see on this team.
44:13
And the problem is though is, is sifting through Dort and Jaylin Williams and SGA and each of them having a case because they're so good on the, on the perimeter.
44:21
Just the fact that though the voters used one criteria last year with Gobert and then they were willing to just throw him out the window, which we predicted they would with Wembanyama, now this. Chaos.
44:31
Wes Reynolds on the other side. It's a numbers game at Visa, the Sports Betting Network.
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