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Feb 25, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 25, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 25, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
There's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM 158. So many ways to get us. You can just choose one of them. You don't have to do all of them.
0:22
It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Biddle and live from Circa. How you doing, man? I'm doing well. It w- it would be cool if you did all of them, though. I, I would like to- At the same time?...
0:29
see, yeah, multiple radio, multiple video streams going. That'd be, that would be interesting. See if it syncs up. Yeah. I'll tell you what doesn't sync up.
0:36
Uh, have I ever told you that the, uh, police, the wonderful police officers of, uh, Las Vegas decide to throw up roadblocks as, uh, some of us try to get into work?
0:44
[laughs] You had quite a scra- scramble drill this morning, huh? Oh, my God. You only knew how many laws I've broken getting here on time.
0:50
Remember when we had a guy who, uh, he just had to get to the other side of his apartment to do shows, and he couldn't get there on time? You remember that guy? [laughs] Yes, I do. I remember that. Yeah, yeah.
0:56
I remember that. [laughs] They have no idea. Uh, we have a great show. We do. Uh, I tend to say that every day, but I mean it every day, and this is no different. Paul Spohrer will join us.
1:06
You know it's baseball coming when Paul Spohrer joins us. Uh, maybe his dog will vomit in the background as has been the case in the past. I don't know. We'll talk MLB divisions with Paul Spohrer from FanGraphs.
1:17
Second hour, Dalen Cuff will join us from ESPN. He's got daddy duty today, so he can, uh, talk to us at the same time. Will Hill with all his bets.
1:25
Drew Didsick joins us as well from the, uh, Deep Dive podcast, of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge. Not only will we talk NBA, maybe we'll try to so- uh, coax some tennis out of him, possibly.
1:36
Uh, Indian Wells podcast, hopefully with Drew next week. And a special numbers game investigation reveals, Kelly, that the 97th Academy Awards are this weekend. Bum, bum, bum.
1:46
And Drew might have something to say about that. Yeah, I think he's got- Okay... I think he's got a couple bets or a couple- You know... he's looking at.
1:51
Remember, it's not officially the Academy Awards until Ortega shows up on the, uh, show. Which will be tomorrow on the numbers game. Oh, tuxedo and everything. Get excited.
1:59
If he does not have his tuxedo on, do we say, "Go away, come back another segment"? I- That dude ain't wearing a tuxedo, is he? He wore it last year. I mean, he, he did that one time. It was last year.
2:07
He didn't wear pants, but we don't have to- [laughs]... we don't worry about that. Just the top part. Is that what he did? Yeah. I don't think he wore pants.
2:12
I was g- I was gonna say, I can't i- can't imagine getting dressed in a tux just to do this guest spot. But you know what? You lose the pants, it's okay.
2:19
Were you involved in the, uh, T-Wolves final 16 points of the game of, of regulation comeback yesterday, and then they beat the, uh, Thunder in overtime? Uh, I was on the over a little bit, yes. Oh, nice.
2:30
I was on the over, but, um, yeah, that game was crazy. Carl, Carl Sack had the over on that game as well. Yes, he did. Yes, he did. Yes, he did. Um, were, were you involved at all or was Carl Sack involved in it?
2:41
And you jumped on Carl Sack. I was, I had a small piece beforehand- Oh, okay... and then I added extra when I saw him. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, that was pretty impressive.
2:46
Jokic, uh, messed around, and the, uh, Nuggets went over the Pacers with, uh, 18, 19 and nine. They gave him 20-- That's 19 assists, by the way. He had 20 assists at one point. They took one away from him. Oh, really?
2:57
Afterwards, yeah. I didn't even see that. Yeah. The, uh... Re- re- real quick on that Thunder-Timberwolves, you know what always amazes me? When you get these comebacks where, like, the Wolves had pulled guys.
3:06
Like, Andy Edwards was sitting on the bench. Yeah. And they come back and tie [laughs] that game without him. And it's like, "All right, oh, overtime, everybody back in."
3:13
Like, it's, it's always fascinating to me, espe- you see it a lot in the NBA, but it's that team, and I get it from the team with the lead perspective, that they keep everybody out there, but then it's the team that's down pulls everybody, and it always cracks me up when you get in the position of that.
3:26
It's like, oh, it's all of a sudden a game again. Like, "Ant, get the ice off your knees," or something like that. Like, stop the post-game treatment.
3:32
Well, you gotta put him back in 'cause you don't wanna lose, you know, saying, "Well, those guys brought us back. Let's, let's just leave them in." Right, right. So you gotta, you gotta throw him back in the game.
3:39
Um, but I just wanted to bring up the Jokic thing for a second 'cause this is his best year ever. This is his best year ever, and he's totally not winning MVP, huh? I, I mean, I think he's still live.
3:50
I think he's still-- I-- Gil, this is gonna be the toughest thing for me and you to talk about for the next couple months because I think these cases are so, like, it's Jokic's best year. It is.
4:00
Like, is that, is that not enough to just give him the MVP award? Of course it is. But it's also, when you look for years of great cases, like, SGA has an amazing case to win the MVP too.
4:10
I would not wanna be, I wouldn't wanna be a voter in this. No, not in that particular category. Yeah. Are we still fighting about, uh, most improved, though? I've got Norm Powell, and you've got everybody else? Yeah.
4:19
[laughs] Okay. Yeah. We can agree on that. Hey, I'm hoping, I'm hoping Norm just misses a couple more games so I can get some plus money and get in on him, and then we can all be happy.
4:27
It'll be, it'll be amazing to me if, if Powell wins this. I, and I have him at 18 to one. All of my near misses in the last year and a half or so, that's the one that ends up getting home, of all things. Right.
4:36
Randomly, I'm watching Norm Powell go crazy on the dubs one night, and I'm like, "I think I should bet this guy." Yeah, Cade's down to minus 145 now, flip a favorite here. Norm's at plus 135.
4:46
If y- i- if you haven't caught it, Norman Powell has missed three straight games out of the All-Star break, which is a little concerning. They're calling it with MVP. Yeah, but when he played, he scored 41. I know.
4:56
I, and there's, there's nothing we saw that would indicate any of this was coming- Who knows?... so it's a little odd. Who knows how much is moving this, you know?
5:02
Who knows what kinds of bets are, are actually moving this market. Yeah. Probably very little.
5:06
Uh, okay, just to give you a, uh, because we got a bunch of guests, so I just wanna get out, sort of vomit out, if you will, uh, what I, what I've been doing, what I was doing yesterday, and this is with baseball approaching.
5:16
The beauty of baseball still, and I know we're, you know, relative- about a month away still, is that there are so many different bets you can make that it almost...
5:25
Remember last year, the only way I discovered the, uh, the monthly bets, the most wins March, April, was because I basically took a day right before the season started, and I was like, "Let me just look at all, everything baseball."
5:36
And there's hundreds of different, uh, markets you can bet into. And so yesterday I talked about, you know, the tried and true, uh, MLB season wins play.
5:43
Uh, yesterday I, uh, mentioned that my number one is the under on the Cleveland Guardians.
5:48
Um, I wasn't happy with myself because we, we ran out of time, and I was talking about how, you know, the bullpen bailed them out all last year, and I, I failed to mention, and of course I was r- I was gonna mention it today, and then Legasa throws it out on Twitter yesterday.
5:59
I'm like, "Ah, I was gonna, but I forgot." [laughs] But, but, you know, one of the buttressing points of that was that the, uh, the Guardians in one-run games last year Uh, 26 and 19 in extra inning games, 10 and three.
6:13
So again, that's, uh, what, what we're looking for with the Guardians is what was sustainable from last year and what is not. I tend to believe that not much is.
6:21
Adam Burke will be on with us on Thursday to tell me why I'm wrong about his Cleveland Guardians. How about that for a tease? Okay. Did you know that Adam Burke was coming on Thursday? No, I had absolutely no idea.
6:30
No idea. Adam Burke told me he was coming on Thursday, so. Adam Burke told you. [laughs] Yeah. So, I guess- All right, I guess someone's gotta check in with Adam Burke.
6:38
[laughs] The, the guests are now telling me when they're coming on the show, and they're bypassing Kelly.
6:42
Um- I'm sitting here, I'm like, well, I guess, like, I guess this is Gil telling me he had a conversation with Adam. No. Adam told me he's coming on. I figured you'd talk to him.
6:48
I have him on my list, so, you know, it's good. So, okay, so then, so under on the Cleveland Guardians, I gave, I gave a whole bunch of reasons in my methodology how I get, got there yesterday on the show.
6:56
Just a few other things that I was looking at yesterday, and, uh, I have not pulled the trigger on these, however, but just wanted to sort of let you know what I was looking at. Uh, Stevie Fezzik loves this first one.
7:07
He does a bunch of, uh, top and bottom stuff with the Dodgers and the White Sox. The one of his that I like the best is White Sox longest losing streak over eight and a half games at minus 130.
7:20
I think Stevie got it at minus 120. Uh, White Sox, as you know, projected to be one of the worst, if not the worst, team in Major League Baseball. Last year, they had losing s- now, last year, they lost 120 games, right?
7:31
Uh, was it 120 or 121? 121 games last year. They were 41 and 121. They had losing streaks last year of 14, 21, and 12. Now, the thing about streaks, all it takes is one to break them, obviously. Yeah.
7:46
But over eight and a half seems very low for a team that is projected, conservatively, to lose 100 games again. Yeah, maybe one makes a lot of sense to me, Gil. Yeah. I like it.
7:56
So, so I do, of, of all the ones that he had with the Dodgers and White Sox, 'cause I, I don't, I don't really subscribe to the top stuff as much as I do the bottom stuff, uh, in baseball.
8:05
But White Sox longest losing streak over eight and a half, I like that from Stevie. I mean, we're n- we're not talking about a White Sox team that should be all that much better, right? Right?
8:12
No, and you and I, I won't say any names, we have a listener who might be within the Chicago White Sox organization who often says hello to us, and let's just say he's not very bullish about things either.
8:25
[laughs] Is that fair? Yeah, the last couple conversations- Okay... that's for sure, yeah. [laughs] Uh, now here's one I have not, again, I didn't bet the White Sox longest losing streak.
8:32
I didn't bet this one yet either, but I think I will. This is most regular season hits.
8:37
Um, Jung Hoo Lee of the San Francisco Giants, who only played, well, he only had like 140 plus at bats last year, then he hurt his shoulder in the outfield. I was watching when it happened. It was ugly.
8:49
But he ended up, you know, missing most of the season. He slots right back into center field, right into the lead off slot, you know, for the Giants.
8:56
Uh, Giants may not be very good, but he is a slap hitter that is really capable of getting on base, and if you give him a full season, 30 to one for most regular season hits. I'm not saying he should be favored. I'm not.
9:09
Luis Arias should be favored, and he is. Uh, Bobby Witt is right there, and he should be. 'Cause Bobby Witt gets in stretches where you're like, "Is this guy ever not gonna get a hit?" Yeah, he bat like 500 last July.
9:19
Oh, it's, it's, it's unbelievable. But Jung Hoo Lee should not be 30 to one, right? He should be way shorter than that.
9:24
For s- so just for a numbers play, a value play, and again, with all team projections, with all player projections, over 162 games, there is a spectrum where everything goes against you, everything goes for you, and then everything in between.
9:38
If things break Jung Hoo Lee's way, and then some of the other contenders, let's say, s- I don't know, you don't root for injuries, but things happen, right, during a season. 30 to one is a great price for that.
9:50
Then the other thing is, and this is also a, uh, sort of a Fezzik inspired one, 'cause again, he likes tops and bottoms.
9:55
I, I am, uh, uh, I'm famous for saying the ever-increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots in Major League Baseball. I've said that for many years now here on the show. Uh, there are...
10:06
These are all available at DraftKings, but they're available in other spots too. Number of teams to record 100 plus regular season wins, number of teams to record 100 plus regular season losses, uh, as well.
10:17
Now, these are both set at two and a half, so obviously four options. For the regular season losses, the over is two and a half minus 150, the under two and a half plus 120.
10:26
For 100%, uh, excuse me, 100 plus regular season wins, the over is plus, over two and a half is plus 220, the under two and a half is minus 280. Of those four options, the one I like the best is
10:41
over two and a half teams to have 100 plus losses at minus 150. I know there's a lot of newish bettors who will listen to the show and be like, "Minus 150? I don't know if I wanna lay that."
10:53
Minus 150 to me, over two and a half, uh, teams to have 100 plus losses is still a good price.
10:59
I went ahead, and this is the kinda stuff I do while I'm not watching Academy Award movies, 'cause I've seen none of those, I'm doing this kind of thing.
11:04
These are the teams with 100 plus wins and losses for the, for the last decade plus, and if we go back to like 2012, 2013, there's not many of them.
11:13
But the reason that I started talking about the, uh, ever-increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots is because right around 2018, Kelly, then it started flourishing, f- uh, these categories.
11:23
Three teams over 100 wins, three with l- over 100 losses. Same 2019, four and four. 2021, 'cause obviously 2020 was the, uh, was the pandemic year, three and four. Uh, four and th- four. You get the idea in 2022.
11:38
So I don't know. You got the Marlins, you got the White Sox, you got the Rockies out there. I'll bet for that at minus 150, get those three teams or anyone else at over 100 losses. I think I will today.
11:49
Drew Dinsick is next. A numbers game on VSiN The Sports Betting Network If you wanna bet smarter, start with Smarter Insights. Right now you can check out articles like Adam Burke's AL West team previews.
12:07
He's on the AL West today, uh, talking about his favorite season win totals, anyth- any other bets that are produced from that division.
12:14
Greg Peterson's best bets in college basketball, Nigel Seeley with his Premier League picks, and later today you can check out Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Jonathan Davis's best bets in the NHL, and Josh Applebaum's CBB, that's college basketball for those who are cool, his sharp report on college hoops.
12:29
To get access to all the articles on vsin.com, right now you can sign up for as little as 9.99. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
12:38
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Beaumont, it's a numbers game right here at VSiN.
12:41
Uh, this gentleman, uh, co-hosts not one but two, count 'em, two podcasts, The Deep Dive, which he does with his buddy Andy Molitor, um, who I was, uh, thrilled to, uh, sort of hang out on, uh, Captain Jack's Super Bowl Saturday night, uh, stream.
12:55
And, uh, also NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does with Jay Croucher. It's our buddy Drew Dinsick. You can follow him on Twitter at whale_capper, courtesy of the Progressive Gas Line. How you doing, Drew?
13:04
I'm doing well. It's great to see you again. I hope all is well in, uh, in a numbers game world. Uh, and yeah, the, uh, the, as they say, it never sleeps. Uh, we have tennis ongoing right now.
13:17
Um, it is a very, very complicated time trying to handicap NBA coming off the All-Star break and, uh, yeah, I'm, I'm a busy man.
13:24
All right, well, let's talk about that last point that you just made, 'cause you have, you have famously, when we did the NBA q- when we had the NBA Cup, you talked about scheduling- [laughs]...
13:32
and how that was a little tricky thing. What is it about... 'Cause when I used to handicap daily baseball, right? For whatever reason- Mm-hmm... and I was so immersed in it, right? Every single- Sure...
13:42
day for six months, and I used to say something happened with the numbers after the All-Star break. Some handicappers would say before the All-Star break. For me, it was always right afterwards- Mm...
13:52
where for about two weeks they would go a little haywire, and then they would sort of return to normalcy. I- is that sort of what it is in NBA or something else?
14:00
Well, certainly that, but, uh, it, it, it's more of the, you know, the NBA Cup and the All-Star break do two terrible things to me, which is, you know, my, uh, most, [laughs] most of my regular season grind box NBA betting day by day is literally just laying the, you know, quantitative layer of, you know, fatigue factor on top of what fair ratings are for teams and players from a bottom-up standpoint.
14:23
And, uh, when you get a sustained period of rest, that has the, uh, the effect of resetting any type of, uh, relative advantage, disadvantage when it comes to, uh, fatigue.
14:35
So for me, it all of a sudden is like, you know, eh, the, the small things that kind of really help you, um, understand why there was an over under performance in a given handicap, why the market was especially hot or cold on a given team, all of that just is completely gone.
14:50
So yes, to, to kind of s- you know, when you see the board, um, it is a lot more of like, "Man, why is that happening? Who is betting that team?" [laughs] Like, what, in what world?
15:01
Like, hey, hey, good example, like, somebody put their hard-earned money on the Philadelphia 76ers- Yeah...
15:07
yesterday and said, "This team is finally gonna get it right now that Joel Embiid is, uh, you know, is, is, is going for scans on his knee."
15:14
And by the way, if you're not paying attention, the Sixers have been telling you for, like, two weeks now that, that he's gonna eventually have surgery, and they're gonna shut him down. Yeah.
15:21
Like, I, I don't know who thinks that the Sixers are gonna all of a sudden just sharpen into focus and really make a push for a plan. Like, it's not happening. I'm sorry, guys.
15:29
Um, but, uh, you know, somebody, somebody went hard against the, uh, Celtics, both of the games out of the s- out of the break for some reason, and it's like, I, I can't explain this, some of this, these things.
15:40
And so, um, number one, you see the market make aggressive moves that don't make sense to you, don't make sense to your numbers, and you're, like, scratching your head, "Well, I don't understand why."
15:49
Um, and then, otherwise, uh, you know, the, the kind of softer stuff that gets, uh, you know, kind of, um, uh, layered into the mix is, uh, is not no more f- no longer effective.
16:00
And I guess I c- the, the key example for the rest thing is, like, you know, it's, it's not a mystery when a team is on a back-to-back.
16:07
I know you may hear somebody say, like, "Well, uh, I'm betting against them because, ah, second of a back-to-back," or, "This is their third and four." Well, guess what? Everyone on earth knows that.
16:18
[laughs] Like, that's not a- They say it, they say it just like that too, Drew. Just like that. It's not a surprise, guys. It's not.
16:25
Um, but what is a surprise is sometimes a team will have a longer tail rest disadvantage while be, you know, while, while being the beneficiaries of, of facing a team on a back-to-back.
16:37
And so sometimes there are times when, you know, there, there's an over bet or, uh, you know, just in general, a correction that's not, uh, reflecting sort of the longer tail of things that, uh, I especially love to key on.
16:49
So, um- Can I, can I just interrupt with just- Yeah, it's gonna take me another week to get there. Let me just sort of ask one follow-up to that is- Sure... is that as reliable as it always has been?
16:58
Like, is that still a go-to? Like, the, the stuff you do with, with rest, is that- Sure...
17:03
i, I mean, is that a, a, just basic handicapping thing that never f-- now obviously it fails you sometimes, but is it still a tried and true thing that you can count on? Uh, the,
17:14
the month of, well, s- I g- I would say January 1st to, to the All-Star break, fatigue factor was the answer key. Makes, makes sense that that would be the stretch. It was- Yeah... it was crazy.
17:25
And, and, and the answer key, because it has a double-edged sword, right?
17:29
If you know why something happened on one night, then you're not over-adjusting to that outcome as you're kind of making, you know, your numbers for the next set of games, right?
17:38
[laughs] And so if you're like, "Yeah, yeah, I mean, I k- we kinda expected this team was gonna fall apart in the fourth quarter," then you're not, like, you, you know.
17:44
So basically it, it just helps you from, um, from both being unprepared for a surprise and then over-adjusting to that outcome.
17:53
Uh, and so it was, uh, it was very, very useful for the month of January and February, but that's because the NBA Cup made the schedule compressed. [laughs] So it was- Mm... more chaotic than ever.
18:04
I will tell you that the NBA numbers, sides in particular, they are very, very tightly, uh, adjusted to back-to-backs and three and fours. Like, that, like, the openers reflect it.
18:17
And so sometimes, you know, there will be a, you know, a, an edge because, you know, there is a three and four, and it's a team that's cold, and everybody wants to bet against them, and then it's already adjusted correctly, and then it goes too far, and there'll be value on the other side.
18:32
I see that pretty commonly. So now- Um, but, uh, but yeah, the longer tail stuff is not, is still, is still, it was still very, very valuable for me.
18:40
'Cause there's gonna be some people listening, it occurs to me, a percentage of the audience are like, "What do you mean by longer tail?" Can you define that for them? Uh, okay.
18:47
[laughs] NBA player, uh, fatigue is not a two or three-day problem. It's like a two-week problem.
18:57
And so understanding specifically how much players are playing, how much they're, you know, what is their usage, how is that different from the way that, you know, normal usage is, uh, and really just, uh, um, you know, g- given, uh, your last seven games, what's your median rest over those last seven games?
19:14
S- s- last seven, last six, five, four, and, and you want, you, you care more about recency, obviously.
19:20
If a team goes double overtime, you know, the night before a back-to-back, th- th- then everything kind of goes completely out the window.
19:27
But, like, usually actually s- there's usually sometimes way overcorrection in those spots because the coach is not gonna just use his normal rotation the night after they go two overtimes on a back-to-back.
19:39
So a lot of times some fresh legs are getting some run.
19:43
Um, and, uh, but no, in g- in general, the, uh, the idea is you look further into the past to understand, you know, what is the cumulative fatigue that is building up, particularly on the key players and their- Yeah...
19:55
their usage. Usage matters, minutes matter obviously. Um, if you are, your defensive role matters, right? If you're a helper versus if you're a point of attack defender, right?
20:06
Then, then, you know, the, the minutes you spend on the floor playing defense are different. They matter, you know, your, your impacts on your body are different.
20:15
Uh, if you are a big, uh, and you are, you know, a rim runner, um, and you're a little bit on the heavier side, the minutes you spend on the floor are gonna affect you more differently. So there's a little- Yeah...
20:26
art, art to this as well is what you're saying. Oh, of course. Of course. So- Yes. Yeah... I'm just cur- and Kelly wants to jump in here too, but I- I'm also curious. Sure.
20:32
None, none of us are old enough to know this, but I wonder if, like, handicappers in 1985, right? Sure. When MJ was playing 82 games and all these guys, you know, the load management was not a phrase.
20:42
I wonder if this was even a thing, you know? Maybe they, maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. I don't know. It's curious how this- Yeah... has become a thing. Yeah.
20:50
I, I mean, I think, like, the, the, a ton of it now is, I, I think is actually gamesmanship of understanding which teams and which o- you know, which organizations are using sort of a more advanced medical science approach to managing load for players, right?
21:07
Like, there's pretty clear signature f- when I look at things where I'm like, "Wow, these guys are doing something right," because every single time they should be at the mercy of fatigue, they're not.
21:21
And you look at the rotations, you look at the usages, and they're like, "Wow, they came up with a game plan tonight to really put the ball in different players' hands to run offense for different players who aren't typically featured."
21:32
And in that regard- Wow...
21:33
they kind of completely avoided some of the pitfalls of, you know, fatigue and/or, like, you know, th- they just rotate, give guys rest in, in certain, uh, you know, uh, spots, give guys rest kind of more calculated in terms of like, "Well, he's got a, he's got a niggling injury.
21:50
We're gonna give him a couple of days off," and it just so happens that like, "Oh, this guy really needed it." You can see it in the d- in the data, in the numbers and, uh- Are you will, are you willing to- Yeah...
21:57
share a team that does that better than most? Uh, I, OKC is the kind of the cla- the quintessential example. Yeah.
22:04
Like they, OKC, and again, like not great to glow about OKC after they just, uh, fell apart to the tune of the most aggressive collapse I've seen in the NBA this year by far. Oh, it was bad. Yeah.
22:15
Um, but, uh, they, they typically are sort of kind of the, the key example where every scheduled loss, every, every scheduled loss when you looked at their schedule at the start of the season, they had managed to find a way to win.
22:27
Yeah. Well, it helps when you're as deep as they are, that's for sure. Uh, we'll come back. Uh, Drew's gonna join us again. We'll get at his NBA picks.
22:32
Now, with all that, he doesn't have the rest to necessarily fall back on tonight, so what did he end up with in the NBA? Does he have any tennis? Uh, does he have any Academy Awards thoughts?
22:42
And Kelly would like to say something too. Sorry, Kelly. Apologize. Coming back, Numbers Game, Mason, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
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23:22
I wanted to, uh, go back 'cause we were rushed on the baseball thing, but was just talking about how of the 100-plus wins, 100-plus losses, over/unders, how of all those four options, the one I like the best is over two and a half, minus 150 on under, uh, excuse me, on teams to lose, on more than two and a half teams to lose 100-plus games.
23:43
So over two and a half teams to lose 100-plus regular season games is, uh, at minus 150, and I cited the Marlins and the White Sox and the, uh, Rockies as the, uh, perhaps the biggest candidates for that.
23:54
Again, just go back all the way a decade in the past. So you see like two th- these are, these are the teams that have lost or won 100-plus in those years.
24:04
2013, you only had two teams with 100-plus losses, Marlins and Astros. 2014, nobody, wins or losses. 2015, you only had one team that won 100 games, and that was the Cardinals at exactly 100. Nobody lost 100.
24:17
2016, you'll see it's one team win, one team loss in terms of those two categories. 2017, it was three teams that- Were above the 100 win threshold, none losses. And then 2018 is when it went crazy in baseball, right?
24:31
It just became the rich and the poor, and it was reflected in these markets. Three teams went over 100 wins, three teams went over 100 losses. 2019, it got even worse, right?
24:43
Four teams over 100 wins, four teams over 100 losses. 2021, 'cause obviously the pandemic year, they only played 60 regular season games. 2021, it was three to the over, four to the, uh, to the over 100 on losses.
24:57
You see 2022, it was four and four. 2023, it was three and four. And then last year, interestingly, no team got over the 100 win threshold.
25:06
Dodgers got closest, but no team got to 100, but we did have three teams with losses. So basically for a decade, not quite a decade, but almost a decade, we have always had three teams lose 100 games.
25:17
That is interesting to see how much that spiked here in recent years. And look at-- And the numbers also, not only the spike- Yeah... but the numbers have crept upward. Right. Right?
25:25
So it used to be, oh, they barely got to 100. Now it's like 111, 121 on the downside, that kind of thing. Uh, anyway, back to Drew Dincic here, uh, from the Deep Dive podcast and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge.
25:36
You can follow him on Twitter at whale_capper, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Um, okay. So with the All-Star break just really, you know, recent here, just this past weekend, rest is not really a thing.
25:48
So where did you end up with, with your plays tonight? Yeah. So, [laughs] uh, it makes it tougher obviously, but a good example of sort of a head-scratching move, um,
26:00
the Magic have fixed things, and yet, uh, the opener for Cavs-Magic I thought was a dead on the number at five and a half. It has been bet out to seven and a half, so I guess I am on the Magic tonight.
26:11
Uh, that is a very, very tough one to explain. Uh, and, uh, just in general, like I, I mean, uh, you know, the- they still no Suggs back for the Magic. The Magic are still not a very good team.
26:21
But, uh, the idea that you need to be rating them based on some of the data that we had in their last 15 games doesn't really match what we're seeing performance-wise.
26:28
So, uh, I think the Magic are gonna be pretty competitive in that contest. And then, uh, in the, uh, Lakers, uh, Mavericks game, I laid the eight and a half on the open there.
26:37
Um, the Mavericks' ability to defend the rim against the Warriors was appalling. It was one of the most pathetic attempts and performances I've seen all season- Wow... on Sunday.
26:50
And I don't think we're-- [laughs] I don't, I just, I don't know how you face a team with two very smart playmakers and fix that problem on a dime.
27:00
Uh, until the bigs get back for the Mavericks, they are effectively a turnstile at the rim.
27:04
So, uh, Lakers may not be able to, um, uh, you know, do much in the playoffs with the way that that defense is constructed, but I certainly think that, uh, they have enough firepower to get a clean win against the Mavericks here.
27:15
That game's gonna be fun tonight. No, there's like no bigs on either side. It's just gonna be, uh- Yeah... everybody attacking the rim. Go a- go ahead. Layup line, layup line, layup line.
27:23
I'm sure ESPN will hype up this first Luka versus Ma- Oh, not at all. Not at all... versus the Mavericks game back in. Um, tennis next week, starting at the end of next week- Mm-hmm...
27:33
we'll have the draw for tennis' de facto fifth major, Indian Wells. Yeah. I am going for a weekend, Drew. I'm so pumped. Yes. Um, looking forward to that, and hopefully you and I can do a podcast.
27:44
We'll try to see if we, our schedules work on this, uh, for next week. Let's find out off air. Oh, I'm gonna be skiing in Jackson Hole next week. Ah.
27:52
Remember you did the one where you came off the slopes and did it that one time? [laughs] That was fun. I do, yeah. [laughs] All right, so we'll see. We'll see if we can work it out.
27:57
Um, but there's, there are five tournaments going on right now. One's on clay on the men's side. The others are all- Yeah... hard courts. Do you have anything today?
28:04
I guess, no, I don't, but I'd like to talk to you a little bit about women's, state of women's tennis. Oh, please. Yes. Is anyone good? [laughs] The, uh, uh, the sort of
28:17
m- meaningful step backwards of the top three- It's amazing... is notable. Yeah. Notable. Um- Coco can't win a match... Coco, and Co- the Coco problem is, is pretty obvious when you're watching.
28:29
She's like very in her own head. Like one small mistake, and she's like immediately just down. Like just like, "Ah, can't, can't do it, can't win." Like it, it is wild.
28:40
I thought this was years in her rearview mirror that she had kinda gotten past that sort of thing, so I do not know what's going on there.
28:47
But, um, she's losing in straight sets to women who she should be having no issues with, and that is a, uh, very, very weird red flag.
28:55
Uh, Sabalenka, I guess, is maybe the most ex- excuse-worthy just because like, you know, she's world number one. She's, she's in the, she's in the slam hunting game.
29:06
You know, is she really, you know, trying to, you know, fire extra bullets again some of these, uh, kind of tournaments where she maybe is just there to pick up a check? Tough to say.
29:14
Um, but, uh, still losses that are a little inexcusable to the likes of the, uh, um, uh, Alexandrovas of the world. Um- Here, here comes the tough one And then Iga. [laughs] Uh, the Doha loss to Penko was like,
29:33
it was predictable, but it wasn't. You know? The, like, when Iga won her quarterfinal against, um, uh, Emma Navarro at the Australian Open, her quality of play, her level of play was so good- Mm-hmm...
29:48
I almost texted you like, "Calendar slam, question mark?" [laughs] Like it was like, it, it was, it was that good. Yeah. Right? And it was like, oh, so she's just gonna win everything then.
29:57
Um, and then there's a weird, completely nonsensical double bounce controversy that had no impact on that game whatsoever, but weirdly got like in her head to the point where she came out the next match and was not as focused and takes the loss.
30:15
And I-
30:17
Just generally, like if there's that small of a thing that can really kind of upset the balance, and then, like, you come into this match against Penko, you've lost four, an- all four of your career against her, but you've been working on your game for like two years to specifically handle this type of opponent and this type of player, and you lose again- And badly...
30:37
in somewhat- And badly... in somewhat, yeah, somewhat embarrassing fashion on y- you know, Doha is effectively the, I would say at least, is her best hard court.
30:46
You know, maybe Indian Wells is in the discussion, but if not Indian Wells, it's Doha. And to lose that way at, in, on that court I thought was like, that was really shocking.
30:55
Um, and then to back it up with a, you know, an ouster, uh, at the hands of Mandrieva, who she had basically was starting to build a little bit of a thought, like, uh, you know, kind of a big sister, little sister, kind of, you know, "You're never gonna get me" kind of a, a vibe with her and then, you know, bang, right away it's over.
31:13
Um, I, I kind of... It's not hard to squint right now at women, women's tennis.
31:18
It's not hard to squint watching Mirra Andreeva, who I think is still growing, uh, and say like, "She could just be world number one at the end of this year."
31:27
And I'm not trying, you know, I don't wanna overreact to one tournament win, and it's always a long arc for these gals, but, um, it is, uh, it is pretty startling how quickly what looked like the cream of the crop, top three, no doubt, has come back to the field and, uh, you know, the next tier of women is just a total, um, you know, choose your, choose your, uh, you know, your fighter.
31:49
Like, any, any- Sunshine Double is gonna determine a lot of how we think about this stuff. Yeah. Yeah. Indian Wells and Miami back to back. It's g- it's gonna be pretty interesting for sure. Yeah.
31:58
I don't disagree with anything you're saying, but we still are in the could it be just a blip range, right? We're still in there. We're not, we're not 100% sure yet. Sure.
32:06
Um- Did you, have you seen the futures prices for Igor French Open, though? She's like minus 175. Yeah, I have. Yeah. And, and okay. I mean, I get it. I get it. But you're right.
32:16
[laughs] If it's a, if it, you know, if a mental thing is a mental thing, you can't handicap it, right? It's a, but- Yeah... but based on clay performance, she was...
32:24
I mean, she was that when she won last year right after the tournament. So it's been that for like almost a c- uh, calendar year now, minus 175 just sitting there. Real quick before we go. Yeah. 30 seconds. Yeah.
32:33
Academy Awards. Ooh. Uh, is there a bet to be made? Um, I've made a bunch of bets. I've laid a bunch of juice, and I feel pretty terrible about it. [laughs] So we can talk about it.
32:44
Um, when "Anora" won, uh, the Directors and Producers Guild Awards back to back, I thought that was a pretty clear slam dunk that it should be a, like a minus 800 Best Picture winner, so I laid all the minus 215, all the minus 230 I could find.
32:59
Um, conclave feels like it's knocking on the door now after the SAG win, so I'm, I'm gonna be sweating until I hear "Anora" called. Uh, and then in the, uh, Best Actress, I have, uh, laid all the prices with Demi Moore.
33:09
The demiseance, I think, is gonna be the ultimate story of the night and, uh, you know, that, there's, there's cases to be made that that's a bad bet.
33:17
Uh, and, uh, but I think the, the SAG, uh, win for her was, was clutch in terms of clinching this thing. I like that, the demiseance. From General Hospital to maybe an Academy Award for Best Actress. Unbelievable.
33:30
Drew- She had a landing this year too. She's, uh, she's everywhere, man. Yeah. Um, good luck. I know laying those, laying those prices- [laughs]... is not fun. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it. NFL talk on the other side.
33:42
Next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:17
Gil Alexander, we get tweets that beat in the book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody. What, it's gone 45 minutes without reading tweets now? Yeah. Yeah. Had a lot to talk about with Drew.
34:25
Cspackler at, @expert, "I refuse to bet for Jokic for MVP. Makes no difference what he does. He will not win MVP. I'm waiting for the sad narrative for whoever the media likes better.
34:36
Trophies for everyone," says Cspackler. [laughs] Edward LaFever, "Hey, Gil, welcome back. Are you going to Indian Wells?" Yes. "If you are, I wanna introduce you to Paula Badosa. I'm going the first weekend.
34:48
Hope to see you there." I'm going the first weekend. What, do you know Paula or something? Wow. Hello. I wa- I wa- I want that picture for the show, please. Hello, my name is Paula. I'm Spanish.
34:57
[laughs] Uh, Chilly Gambler. I know who you are, Paul. Chilly Gambler, "Good to have you back, Gil. Hope you enjoyed the time off. While you were gone, it felt like Mirra Andreeva."
35:05
These were all before we talked tennis, by the way. "It felt like Mirra Andreeva arrived. Would you say it's official she is here in a big way after, for her performance last week?" Yeah.
35:14
You know, Drew and I have been talking about Mirra Andreeva on the, on the tennis pods for a couple years now. She is, she has arrived. This was her first sort of, this was her first 1,000 win.
35:24
She's absolutely on the come up. Absolutely on the come up. But it's hard to know, right? Until you see it sustained. Um, this is from Nevadaizer. "Hey, Gil, hope you enjoyed your holidays.
35:34
With Major League Baseball starting up, since the Dodgers have a super team, can we get Jeff Benson to create a prop, either yes, no, any Dodger player to win an award?
35:43
Um, MVP, Rookie of the Year, uh, other awards as well, or any Dodger versus the field. Thoughts?" I think those are great ideas. Maybe we'll run it up the flagpole, see- That's a good one. Yeah...
35:52
if Jeff Benson wants to do that. Uh, oh, Wet Willy Colon, I'm sorry I missed this one. "Drew's thoughts on Tibs and the Knicks constantly running his guys into the ground.
36:00
I believe they have four of the top five in minutes per game in the league." This has been Tom Thibodeau's thing his entire coaching career. Mm-hmm. Like, he is known for doing this.
36:08
Um, and now i- can a case be made that that's what happens to his teams late in the season or is it just that they have lesser talent? Probably a combination of both. N- NCI 95 Gambler, "Welcome back from vacation.
36:19
Can you please get to the important topic of our girl Iga getting rolled at Doha? What was that? You know some of us have futures on her." Um, she has a Jelena Ostapenko problem really more than anything.
36:30
Iga Swiatek is 500 or better- Against every other player on the WTA tour. Every other player. Do you know what she is against Ostapenko? What? 0 and 5. Are you serious? That hamburger beats her every time. 0 and 5?
36:42
Yeah, there's no real equivalent in sports. Wow. Ostapenko's a Slam winner herself. She won the French back in the day. Um, Chad Lee, "I'm always amazed how long a thought Drew can make without a run-on sentence.
36:55
Drew sentence over/under 375 words. Any takers?" [laughs] He has a flair for the language. Yeah. No run-on sentences whatsoever. Um, okay, let's talk some, uh, NFL real quick here. Did I do justice to those tweets?
37:09
I hope I did. Um, Mel Kiper with his mock draft 2.0 already. He's at 2.0 already. Yeah, it just came out this morning. He's got Abdul Carter going to the Titans number one. This is a change for him. Mm-hmm.
37:22
He's got Abdul Carter from, uh, Penn State, the ol' Lavar Arrington, Micah Parsons number 11, Abdul Carter, going to Tennessee at number one.
37:30
Then he's got Cam Ward from Miami, a quarterback, going to Cleveland at number two. Then the Giants end up, per Mel Kiper's mock draft 2.0, with Travis Hunter. Then it gets interesting because Shedeur drops.
37:45
Will Campbell, offensive tackle from LSU, goes to the Patriots at four. Mason Graham, defensive tackle from Michigan, goes to the Jaguars at five.
37:53
Then Ashton Jeanty from Boise State, the number one running back off the board, goes as high as six to the Raiders- Yeah... per Mel Kiper 2.0. We're gonna draft a quarterback at six, huh?
38:05
I was, uh, running back, yeah, I was thinking the same thing when I was typing this up. Here's the thing about Jeanty, like, and I had a bet on him to win the Heisman. I love Ashton Jeanty.
38:11
I've never thought this guy's going to be an unbelievable pro player.
38:15
And, and the other part of it, Gil, is just, like, the, it's not the, I know everybody wants to talk about, like, all what, what we saw from running backs last year and how much they changed teams, like, you know, Saquon, Derrick Henry, right?
38:26
How important the running back is all of a sudden again.
38:28
And I, I think those are, those are all true, but those are all very specific examples, and I still, I'm still concerned about that at a top of a draft where these teams need so much, right?
38:37
Like, the Raiders need so much. They're not a running back away from, from being a championship team.
38:42
Now, remember, we talked about baseball, about the, uh, the chasm between the haves and the have-nots as years have gone by.
38:48
Remember, those top six picks that we were d- just talking about, uh, in his mock draft, are all 3 and 14 or 4 and 13 teams. Right.
38:55
Like, the NFL bottom is thick because the first 5 and 12 team to draft is at seven, and he has, Kiper does, the Jets taking Shedeur Sanders at seven. [laughs] Okay.
39:09
Which begs, then you see the rest there, Walker Warren and Simmons rounding out the top 10 to the Panthers, Saints, and Bears.
39:15
But that begs the question, if I just seize on the number seven play, we could talk about this again, but number seven means, okay, Aaron Rodgers done in New York. What is Aaron Rodgers' next team?
39:25
Do we have odds for that? Yes, we do. Um, by the way, are you, are you surprised by the Matt Stafford thing in, in LA? Oh, shocked.
39:33
We, I mean, you were ta- you and I were talking a little bit a- about it after the show yesterday. I just don't, I, like, kinda where did this come from? Like, they must be...
39:42
I, the only thing that makes sense to me is both sides must just be so off on what they were expecting for the other one to come to the table with.
39:49
You know what Todd Wright's theory, I, I don't know if Todd wanted me to say this on air, but Todd Wright, who's a frequent guest of our show, Todd Wright, who hosted All Night with Todd Wright at ESPN Radio for so many years, greatest talk sh- uh, sports talk radio host for my, in my mind, for, for, you know, of all time.
40:02
He thinks that the, that part of it, at least, I don't wanna put words into his mouth, but part of it is that Kelly Stafford has become so annoying to the Rams that that's, like, that pushed them over the edge.
40:14
I mean, there's definitely a possibility. There's definitely a possibility. I mean, to think that that's even part of it is, is, anyway, so the Ra- That's part of today's sports, right?
40:21
Like, it's, I mean, it's Aaron Rodgers doing TV hits. Like, it's stuff like this that I, uh, franchises are gonna be a little uncomfortable with.
40:28
I bring up the Rams because Aaron Rodgers next team odds, the Rams are the short shot at plus 250. They have moved.
40:34
[laughs] And, and if you are the Rams, like, if you're a Rams fan or someone who's considering betting the Rams, the Rams had the ball with a chance to beat the Eagles in the snow in Philly. You can't possibly think
40:48
that the Rams are better off with Aaron Rodgers than they would be with Matthew Stafford, just from a sheer football perspective.
40:54
Rams are plus 250 for Rodgers, Raiders are three to one, Steelers are also three to one, and then Colts and Titans begin at five to one and longer. You see the rest of the options there, Vikings plus 550.
41:05
Uh, if you wanted to do a Brett Favre thing, in other words, being a Packer great that ended up in a Vikings uniform. Niners plus 750, then Browns and Giants both at 12 to 1. I just, let me just ask you this off.
41:19
Forget the odds for a second. What kind of team would want him- I mean-... at this point?
41:25
I mean, you've gotta be a team that feels like you are, I mean, a decent quarterback away from being right in the mix, and, but the pr- uh, the pr- So how can the Rams be that team, though?
41:35
The Rams must have just decided it's not gonna happen with Stafford for whatever reason, right? Yeah. Whatever the reason is, they decided it's not gonna happen with Stafford anymore. Maybe you're right.
41:44
Maybe it's the money being far apart. Would, is that their alternative? Is that the guy they want? So, I, like, I, like, I actually think they're one of the few teams that does make sense.
41:53
They, they have moved to the betting favor here. It was Steelers before that. But, but if, but if he couldn't, if Aaron Rodgers couldn't make it work with the Jets, I mean, we all know how badly it went.
42:00
First of all, it was- Right... the four plays, then he ruptured his Achilles. Then last year, they stunk. He's at least two years away. And even s- and peop- some people correctly argue that even his last time- Mm-hmm.
42:12
Yeah... his last year in Green Bay, he wasn't all that good. Wasn't very, yep. What are we hanging onto with this guy?
42:17
Well, I, I think if it's the Rams and you're talking about losing Stafford, it just becomes a little bit more of a desperation move. It's a desperation move.
42:22
But I do think the Rams, I'm like, and Sean McVay I trust with this, that they're, like any of these good teams, the problem is Aaron Rodgers is only gonna wanna go play for a good team, right?
42:31
Like, I, otherwi- like I think this is why I think there's as good of a chance as any that Aaron Rodgers just hangs it up. But he's only gonna wanna go play for a good team.
42:38
And good teams are gonna look at what happened to him in New York and say, "Well, we can consider this guy, but we can't hand over the keys to everything like the Jets did because they ruined their entire franchise- They did...
42:50
for the next three, four, five years." Well, also, and if you're the, if you're the Raiders- So, so is Rodgers gonna play by those rules? That's the thing. But here's the thing.
42:57
If you're the Raiders, let's just go through the candidates. The Raiders, they're not gonna... He, he's not gonna be the difference between them being good or not.
43:03
Okay, he's not, but can't you see the trio of, of, uh, Pete Carroll, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers being like, "Let's run it back, old guys." Oh, so stupid. "We can do it. We can get this done." So stupid.
43:14
And then the Steelers, right? Just talking about the top three candidates. The Steelers, I mean, Russell Wilson ended up being kind of great.
43:22
I, that this is where, uh, is there that big of a difference between Russ and Rodgers? No.
43:26
And you know what I saw out of Russ last year, Gil, is a guy that came in and clear- r- realized he had to compete for a job- Yeah... and got a little bit better.
43:34
Is Aaron Rodgers g- attitude gonna work with Mike Tomlin and the Steelers? By the way, I don't know if Russell Williams, Russell Wilson's performance last year was, is sustainable to next year. Me either.
43:43
Yeah, me either. I don't know. But that's the production you're replacing, and I don't know that A- like, I just don't, the fixation on this. Just hang it up, dude.
43:51
But he, I don't think he has the mu- he doesn't have the ego to hang it up. I know. I don't, I don't think so either.
43:55
There are some in- there are some interesting teams on here just 'cause I think you can cross off a bunch. Like, the Titans? The Titans. What? No, no. Like, aren't they...
44:03
They're drafting a quarterback or, and Aaron Rodgers doesn't wanna go there. So, like, that's a parlay of nos. [laughs] Like, the Vikings? The Vikings is kind of interesting in, in some weird way.
44:14
Just 'cause Darnold's gone and you're gonna bring him in for like- Yeah... a year still- Yeah... to let McCarthy come along? Okay. My old Packers fans would lose their minds. Yeah. Part two. Uh, we'll come back.
44:23
Will Hill, I don't know, maybe he has some thoughts on this, and all of his plays. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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