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Feb 26, 2026
A Numbers Game | February 26, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | February 26, 2026 | Hour 2
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45:08
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Finland on this Thursday morning.
0:20
Crack still to come next hour, unscripted, the triumphant return, correct? That's right. Of Bill Krackenberg. Lot of- Everybody's return is triumphant... lot of triumphs.
0:29
I was dying laughing on his Twitter the other day, though. He, the, he shot a video of some little casino in the middle of nowhere Florida. Uh, it w- it looked like a renovated rest stop.
0:39
I'm sure he'll discuss it when he hops on next hour. [laughs] It was great, though. I'll- Got the video. I got the video cut up, so we will air it, too. We got tweets at beginning of the book.
0:47
Bobby Gettys, "It's my birthday today, and you know what my first present was in the morning? Realizing I forgot to put an entry in the Rick Run Good contest.
0:53
Kelly, is this just equivalent to having our guy get cut, or are we disqualified for prizes? Also love the Tankapalooza time of year." You know what, Bobby? I forgot to do it, too. I'm not tr- I'm not trying to...
1:03
Not tr- this is not me, uh, uh, bragging at all. I've never actually missed, so I don't know, but I think you're just- Out of luck... yeah. I, well, is your guy getting cut or disqualified for prizes?
1:16
Oh, you mean the season-long prizes. I don't think so. I think it's just the equivalent of your guy getting cut, I think. Larry Fresh, "Love how other listeners are trying to t- tweak the no-brain parlays.
1:25
They're, [laughs] to get better money. I'm taking the 50 cents on the dollar and buying more Chipotle." Yeah. People wanna, people wanna get more bang for their buck. It's funny. We'll just, we'll just do it slowly.
1:36
Eric Pock, I think if pr- saying it correctly, "Blindly following Love is Blind bankroll builders. As a result, when do we expect these to settle?" One week from today. One more episode.
1:45
We find out at the altar if they get married or not.
1:48
And Nevada Azer, "Not sure what's more irritating, the blanket short pricing across the awards markets you guys just discussed or the voters responsible for naming these awards." Ugh.
1:57
Oh, I guess he has a problem with, uh, Comeback and Most Improved and all that stuff. Or Offensive Player of the Year versus MVP, that kind of thing. What about the hockey ones? Oh. Where it's like- Oh, forget it.
2:06
Forget it... it's like, it's like, named after the third duke of whatever who- [laughs]... first invented the hockey stick. Who won the Archduke Ferdinand Trophy? [laughs] It's not true. Just making that up.
2:14
Every hockey fan's yelling at me right now. [laughs] Ladies and gentlemen, he's kind enough to, uh, join us for a three-part series, uh, handicapping Major League Baseball. We had part one the other day.
2:24
This is part two from Joe Peta, who joins us from Philly, uh, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @MagicRatSF, the author of Trading Bases: Moneyball for the Money Set.
2:36
It goes on and on, and, uh, one time ESPN chock baseball writer. Joe, good morning to you. How's the, uh, cold out there? Oh, we got f- we- Yeah... we, we got frozen Joe. It's cold in Philly. Hey, guys.
2:50
That's how cold it is. There he is. Now he's, he's unfrozen. There you go. How you doing, man? Good. You brought me down a little bit with the, uh, Phillies news in that last, uh- Oh... segment. Brutal, right? Brutal.
3:03
Yeah. I'll tell you, I... We talk about, like, prior lives sometimes when I come on, and I- I ran biotech trading at Lehman Brothers for almost, uh, a decade, and glioblastoma is just an awful disease.
3:18
I had a brain surgeon one time, you know, we do these sort of seminars, 'cause I didn't have a medical background.
3:23
I'd be trading these stocks and trying to cure d- And he ex- he explained glioblastoma as put- making a bowl of Jell-O with two different colors, say like green and yellow, and then trying to extract the green- Oh...
3:36
without damaging the yellow. Oh. And of course, it's impossible. Ugh. Uh, it's just a terrible, uh, terrible disease, and yeah, that, that, that Phillies data is really damning.
3:47
It really is, 'cause it's hard not to draw the line. It really is. From six guys who died in their 40s and 50s who played, uh, lots of time on the Veterans Stadium turf back in the day.
3:57
In- interesting that, that someone had the, uh, the intrepid reporting desire to buy one of those samples on eBay, right? The fact that they, they were selling samples of that turf on eBay, that's amazing.
4:08
Um, well, no, no articulate, no sort of a way to have anything but an inarticulate segue to talking baseball handicapping. Thanks for coming on the other day. It, uh, received tremendous response.
4:21
The next time you're on we're gonna talk about season win totals, your favorites. We're gonna do a speed round. We're gonna throw some at you. You have something different planned today.
4:29
I, I, I sit as the audience does and, and wait to hear what you're gonna say about the Mets and beyond. Yeah, exactly. When we...
4:36
Next Monday, when we do the, uh, 8 to 10 season win total picks, you know, we're not gonna go in depth as we go through them. So I thought we'd do one in depth today, building on the building blocks we got Tuesday.
4:49
And then so when I give those on Monday, you kind of know that this is the logic I use for all those.
4:54
So for the Mets, w- we'll kind of start with the Bill Parcells, uh, motto that, uh, you are what your record says you are, right? Hmm.
5:01
So they were, and, and what their record says they were last year is an 83-win team, or stated another way, a $340 million payroll failure- [laughs]... that missed the playoffs, right?
5:17
A- and, um, paid another 90 million, uh, in luxury tax. So, uh, that, that's, doesn't look like a good start. And there was one thing we didn't talk about, and I think you'll love this, Gil.
5:28
Um, w- one kind of luck we didn't talk about two days ago was health luck, and, uh, it- here's a great stat. There were six teams last year who ha- uh, Major League teams, who had a plus 700 plate appearances.
5:45
Um, there we- uh, and only two teams had more than one player make 700 plate appearances. Just six overall, and one team with, or, uh, one team with more than, uh, one.
5:59
The other team that had more than one was the New York Mets.
6:02
And they not only had one player or two players, they had three players make 700 plate appearances, and it was their three best players, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso.
6:16
That is impossible to improve upon because they can't, you know, there's no more plate appearances- That's right... available for them. They can only go down. And on top of that, those guys were well above average.
6:30
They didn't ha- Alonso sort of did, but the, they, the other, Lindor and, and Soto didn't have career years. But essentially because of where they are in the aging curve, you can't improve on that.
6:41
Not only do we know they can't improve on that, they can't match that because of course Alonso is gone.
6:46
And he created, uh, he, he created I think it was 45% more, um, runs than somebody, and he had more plate appearances than most. So he was high on a rate basis and of course on a, on a volume basis.
7:01
So that would look like a terrible place for the Mets to start, especially because right behind you Circa has the Mets as I think does FanDuel at 82 and a half, or 88 and a half total wins for the season.
7:15
So you have an 83-win team with their three best players that cannot possibly match, and of course we know it'll be a downgrade without Alonso. Looks like an easy under, right? [laughs] Here we go.
7:27
Well, let's go through some of the steps we talked about. Yeah. Yeah. So this gets to be fun. So we have an 83-win team, and we talked about Pythagorean, right? Well, and that's barely over 500.
7:39
The Mets last year, uh, scored 766 runs and allowed 715. You do the Pythagorean port, port, um, uh, calculation on that and you say they should've had about three and a half more wins, or 86. So we'll take them up to 86.
7:56
Um, now- Oh, yeah... we say, okay, we, that's the first step, but how many runs should have they scored, how many runs should have they allowed based on their, um, you know, their cluster luck or their, their sequencing?
8:12
And this is where it, it, it really gets interesting, Gil, because we have a huge outlier here. On offense, here were the Mets ranks in different categories. On base percentage they were sixth in all of baseball.
8:26
Slugging percentage they were eighth. Isolated slugging they were fifth. Now, you have components, like three different components where you're... Well, th- this, if you look at Ken Pomeroy's like four factors, right?
8:39
If you have teams that are fourth, fifth, fourth, overall they're gonna be higher than that, right? Because it's not the same teams above them. So it's a shock that with ranks of sixth, eighth, and fifth
8:52
in three categories that are going to explain runs more than anything else, the Mets were actually 10th in runs scored. Hmm.
9:01
Now, there's another factor when I first was doing cluster luck that said, okay, the, the teams I'm missing on generally you miss because of base running, right?
9:12
Because stolen bases are actually sort of a hidden increase in slugging, right? 'Cause a guy goes from first to second, it's not reflected in, in slugging.
9:21
Um, and of course caught stealing is a hidden detriment to on-base percentage, 'cause you're getting a guy erased who didn't, you know, effectively didn't get a hit. Well, the Mets were fifth in stolen bases.
9:36
They were 29th in caught stealing. So they were the most effective team in running in, in, as far as adding to, you know, sort of having hidden slugging percentage in there, right? [laughs] Wow. Still 10th in runs. Yeah.
9:53
Compare that to the team Cincinnati Reds, who they lost in a tiebreaker to go to the playoffs.
9:59
The Reds were 16th in runs, excuse me, 16th in on-base percentage, 21, 21st in slugging, 24th in islugging, and somehow were above average in runs scored at 14th.
10:14
The Mets actually stole 50% more bases than Cincinnati, but Cincinnati got caught stealing 50% more than the Mets did. You put those all together- Wow...
10:26
and the Mets, their sor- their, their cluster luck just on offense, they should have had, um, five more wins.
10:34
It, it, it comes close to 50 runs that they were essentially just disappeared because of bad luck, bad sequencing luck. Now we're, we're talking about a team with 91 wins in 83-win clothing. Um, but it gets...
10:49
But wait, there's more, because that's only half the cluster luck, um, equation, right? Because runs allowed we do the same thing.
11:00
Now, it's not as clean with runs allowed, and, and I wanna give a, like a shout-out to Adam Burke in the VSiN, uh, preview.
11:08
He made a very observation in terms of what, uh, in terms of Pythagorean, um, and, and th- this goes into runs, you know, sequencing too, that you can have a bullpen, um, and it, and he pointed out this was the Miami Marlins last year.
11:25
Like, their Pythagorean looked like they were really lucky, but in fact they had a ton of losses by five for us through non-competitive pitchers into the mix, right?
11:37
Joe, Joe, let me- So that's where- Joe, Joe So- Let's cut you off there. We'll continue after the break. More on the Mets, and this will lead to a season win total play from Joe Peta on the New York Metropolitans.
11:48
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real. Mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
11:58
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12:08
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12:25
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game. VP, Hoops Mania. Y'all about that? Yeah? No? Nothing? No one? No one? No one? No one wants to talk about that? I wanna talk about that, Kelly.
12:39
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12:47
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12:54
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13:02
Sign up now at vsin.com [clears throat] slash subscribe. Don't have to do the [clears throat] in between the slash subscribe though. [laughs] I don't know how you would type that in.
13:09
I don't know how you'd write that, no. No. Um, Joe Peta kind enough to join us here for a second segment, part two of his three-part, uh, baseball handicapping special.
13:17
And, uh, it calls to mind a couple things, one of which is when I was doing my season win totals, under on the Guardians, over on the Rangers, I would go through Pythagoras, Pythagorean theorem, uh, just, you know, runs produced, runs allowed, which teams were overachievers, which teams were underachievers.
13:32
And then I also did, um, sequencing. I did it through the prism of base runs, um, which again, subtle difference, but all falling under the umbrella of sequence, sequencing.
13:41
Subtle difference between that and, say, cluster luck. Um, but the Mets, we highlighted the single unluckiest or the least fortunate team when it came to sequencing from last year's season. I'd have a...
13:53
I didn't have a season win total play on them, but we highlighted them. I, I wanna say I said nine games worse- Yes, that's what I have, yep... than they should've been based on base runs, which was at FanGraphs.
14:02
Um, and the other thing, Joe, and we'll bring Joe back in here, Chris Felica was texting you during it, and I think it's, it's, the, the...
14:08
we should probably say this as a topic sentence because we'll probably draw more people in. You started with it, the Bill Parcells comment, right?
14:14
"You are what your record, or you are what your record is," or whatever the, whatever his exact quote was on that. And people really, you know, it's a very simplistic sort of reaction people have to that.
14:25
"Yeah, Parcells, he's, he's right. You are what your record are." It's sort of like this very brain, brain turn-off kind of way of looking at things.
14:33
But really this whole discussion is about not looking at sports that way. Can we say that as a topic sentence? Definitely. Um, it, it, yeah, it, it has a, a... That quote does have some usage because sometimes people
14:49
that object to it do come off as losers, sour grapes, and I think we could say that about the Canadian hockey team, right? Big gentleman who said, "You, you watch the game and tell me who's better."
15:01
Well, yeah, I hear you for forecasting the next game, but you do sort of have to live with your record, which I think was really what Parcells was saying. Don't make excuses, get better. That's right.
15:14
That's what he was saying. But in this, a much more deep dive analysis, uh, other things are revealed. Continue, sir, with your, with your Mets analysis, if you would.
15:22
So when we do the pitching, um, um, sequencing or the runs allowed sequencing, I get another three, three wins, which actually takes them to a 94-win team. So exactly.
15:34
To me, they were not a, you know, it certainly was not you are what your record says you are, and it's not even potential of what they were.
15:42
It is they had a true talent level that played to the equivalent to me of a 94-win team or 11 wins better than their actual record. They shouldn't have been battling the Cincinnati Reds for the last wildcard spot.
15:55
They should've been pushing the 96-win Phillies for the NL East title. Um, so that's our starting point. Now, there are, and we, I mentioned Alonso earlier, there are drop-offs.
16:09
Might be some help coming too, so let's look at, at, uh, and first let's look at, at, uh, pitching. Um, their pitching is, their, their...
16:20
Really the only change to the rotation is, and of course the starts will vary based on injuries, but the big addition is of course, uh, Peralta.
16:28
And while he probably isn't going to match his sub3 ERA last year, he's not really a number one when you think of a true, like, Jacob deGrom, uh, Zach Wheeler-type ace, but he's a one slash two, and that is a really big addition if they can get 30 starts out of him.
16:48
'Cause it takes away starts from fours and fives, um, that, you know, are gonna be over four and a half ERAs. And hopefully with, with Peralta, they're gonna get something around three and a half.
16:59
I think that's his, his true talent level for an ERA.
17:02
And then put it all together, uh, and then you go to the bullpen, and there's no way that you can expect Devin Williams to match Diaz's 1.63 ERA last year, especially because, uh, Diaz threw more
17:16
than any other relief pitcher for the Mets last year. They also got rid of Ryan Steneke, who had a 5.3 ERA last year. He threw the third-most innings.
17:26
Hopefully Luke Weaver and Devin Williams combined will be something like Diaz and Steneke. Um, it might not be as high leverage as, as Diaz's work was.
17:36
But you put all the pitching staff together, and I actually get a one-win improvement, um, from where they were last year. So now we go from 94 wins, first change would be pitching, and I'm up to 95.
17:49
The Mets' defense was abominable last year. Um, I am not smart enough, like, like I said on Tuesday, I do my defenses based on units, so I don't really know how this unit is gonna play together.
18:03
I will start tracking that immediately. But I do know that in general there is a regression, um, a significant regression for any teams at either end of the fielding spectrum the prior year.
18:16
In other words, when I do some positive regression for the Mets' defense, uh, that picks up another win, even though it's still not a good defense yet. I mean, there's still room for improvement there.
18:25
So now I'm at 96 And now we get to the penalty of the players lost. And the players lost on, on the Mets is really something, because it's not just Alonso.
18:36
They lost Nimmo, they, um, who was, uh, 14% better in terms of run created than an average player. Uh, they lost Jeff McNeil, who was 11% better. They lost Starling Marte, who had a surprisingly very good year last year.
18:51
He was 12% better. And really the only dead weight they cut, um, was Luis, uh, um, Acuña, who went, went to the White Sox in the Robert trade.
19:00
Put it all together and the, the Mets are replacing not only the most plate appearances of any other team, just under 2,500, but it is quality. It's high quality teams.
19:12
So they are, they are gonna take a hit here, despite the fact that, you know, Bichette and, and Polanco from Seattle, who I think is a really underrated pickup, um, and Simeon, um, and we'll see how Robert does.
19:27
I'm not actually expecting... I'm actually expecting a drop-off from Nimmo there. But put it all together and I see that costing the Mets about five wins, um, or something like 50 runs produced.
19:38
And that gets me to a 91-win team. And, and that's rounded up a little bit. It's really about 90 and a half.
19:44
But again, Gil, put it all together, and I think we talked about on Tuesday how ch- usually for the top teams, you're going to have a projection that is below the market because of- Yes...
19:58
you know, me- mean versus median. And so I've got, i- in this case, for the Mets, and this is really the only top team that I have this for, I actually have them with a projection above their margin.
20:10
So the Mets, this is the first play. I've got the Mets over 88 and a half. That's available at Circa right now at, at minus 110.
20:17
And, uh, you know, that, those are sort of the building blocks that we'll, you know, that I'll be using for, for all the other, uh, teams. So the floor is yours if, if you have any questions on that logic.
20:27
So there it is, over on the Mets, 88 and a half available here at, uh, Circa. Always shop around, of course, for these.
20:34
Um, what is the edge that you have to have in terms of games above or below season win total for you to fire a bet on it? Right. Normally it's three.
20:48
Um, but because of this sort of mean versus median at the end up here, I am happy to make the Mets a play. Now, in truth, as we'll see on, on Monday, um, this Mets play will be correlated with another play.
21:04
Um, and, and so you sort of have to be careful with that.
21:07
And, and, and, uh, because we know with the Braves and the Phillies and the Mets, it's almost a dead heat in terms of, um, uh, odds to win the National League East.
21:19
I certainly favor the Mets over the other two, and one of the other two will almost certainly, unless things change, uh, by Monday, uh, will be an under play on, on Monday.
21:31
So I don't really like that how tightly correlated those two are. Preference might be to play the under and the Mets to win the division i- if I were, you know, uh, thinking about how not to have my plays too correlated.
21:46
Um, but that's, uh, th- th- it's, it... Generally when you're looking at teams, like, with 75 to 85 wins, I like to have something that's two and a half to three wins better. All right.
21:56
So when Joe, uh, comes back next week, and what are we doing, Tuesday next week, Tuesday? We're doing Monday. Monday next week. 10:30 Eastern, 7:30 Pacific.
22:03
We will do many more of his season win totals, and we will just throw teams at him as well, and he'll just give 30-second synopsis on this.
22:09
And I just wanna say in closing for this here, Joe, and then you can just stamp this with, with your approval if you agree, which is I still find season-long Major League Baseball season win totals, because there is 162 games, to be one of the great betting vehicles, because if your handicapping is right, if you are directionally right, you can overcome negative variance in a way that you cannot, say, in pro football, let alone college football, where there's even fewer games.
22:37
You have a bad three weeks in those sports, you're, you might be toast. But in baseball, hey, you have a bad month, you can still win these. You still subscribe to that, I would imagine. Oh, absolutely.
22:47
I think the only, the, the only thing that's really changed, Gil, is that some of these teams make changes at the trading deadline that, in, in bulk, that we didn't used to have to think about before. It's a great point.
23:01
July 31st, and sometimes those, [laughs] those decisions are made within days of that deadline. Joe, thank you. Uh, enjoy Philly. Thank you so much. We'll see you next week. Joe Peete, everybody. Are We Sure?
23:16
Next on a Numbers Game at VSiN. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, Downtown Las Vegas.
23:29
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell, and we get tweets at BettingTheBook. Oh, Chance Copperpot reacting to the, uh, Nevada/Nevada thing from earlier. He says, "You say potato, I say potato.
23:38
I do have a problem when someone says Oregon instead of Oregon." Oh, yeah. "Does that compare to saying Nevada improperly? I think it does. Is this an East Coasters thing? Get with the program. This is America," he says.
23:49
Well, it, it, it, it compares in a sense. Yeah, in my, this is my personal take on this, Gil. I think everybody knows that Oregon's wrong. Mm. I feel like Nevada/Nevada, I, I kind of excuse. He might be right.
24:04
It might be an East Coast thing, 'cause I remember growing up, I thought it was Nevada and I thought it was Oregon. You know the only time I ye- I've regularly used Oregon?
24:12
When the hit, like, 1992 computer game, The Oregon Trail came out. See? The Oregon. That's where I'd go Oregon. Mike Alvarez is, he goes- Otherwise, it's Oregon all the time [laughs] Mike Alvarez, murdery.
24:22
He goes, "Imagine being so pretentious that you correct people on the pronunciation of a specific word. That'd be like somebody being so snobby that they correct you on the difference between altitude and elevation."
24:31
[laughs]... that tweet earlier and I didn't under- Mm... I didn't understand what he was talking about at first We love, we love Mike. Oh, that's great. Mike, Mike is, Mike tries to be funny at all of them.
24:40
Now he, now he has, uh, shifted into the, "I don't think they're gonna get your joke," Mike. I think I got the, uh... I didn't get it when I first read it. You do, you do, reading out loud, it's, it's fantastic.
24:49
Well- It did catch, uh, it did catch... There was not an argument over it, but, uh, I did catch a quick clarification, uh, on the Deep Dive podcast a, like a couple months ago over elevation and altitude.
24:59
Oh, what was it? They had the very quick, like, disagreement and then went, "All right, we'll go with that," and then just moved on. Not like me and Matt Brown where we just went on for about an hour.
25:06
Yeah, it was, it was like daggers in their eyes. I was behind the glass going, "I might as well have gotten popcorn." [laughs] It was fantastic. One of the best shows I've ever produced. Las Vegas 514, yo.
25:15
Any recommendations for things to do in London? Looks like we, talking about the Washington football team, are playing at Tottenham Stadium.
25:21
Hope this is the last of our international travel takes a home game away from us. Sheesh. Oh, I got a suggestion for what you could do in London. Find Daniel Snyder's house and just shout stuff at him.
25:31
He has a house in London? Oh, he moved to London, yeah. Wow. Ace DeCardano. He's studying abroad for a year? He fled the country- [laughs]... is what he did.
25:41
Uh, Ace DeCardano, I always thought lack of emphasis on sequencing was a flaw of baseball analytics. On the other hand, wouldn't sequencing luck increase if underrated Arias batted before Manny Ramirez?
25:52
Well, it would still come down to sequencing luck or not. Doesn't matter who. You would think, right, that your, your outcomes would be better, but really sequencing is just about the, the events that occur, right?
26:05
Home run, single, double, whatever, regardless of person. Uh, Corbin, morning fellas.
26:10
After the hell I've been through as a Canadian, Oilers hockey fan, two straight Stanley Cup losses, game seven World Series, now the gold medal hockey game. That still hurts. There shall be no Kawhi Leonard slander.
26:20
He was the last good thing we had. It was no slander. Okay, so that's an interesting... I always find that part of the Kawhi conversation fascinat- fascinating. How do Toronto Raptors fans feel about him?
26:33
And I guess that answers it. Like they, Canadians, much more appreciative than Americans. Great people. Thanks for what you did for us. There will be no slander. What did we used to call Andy McNeil?
26:44
Angriest Canadian we know. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, Nemo, Ryan's voice. Gil, I think the quote you're looking for is, "The Bears are who we thought they were. Ha ha." No, no, no, no, no. That's one from Dennis Green.
26:54
I'm talking about the Bill Parcells, "You are what your record says you are." Two different things. And then, uh, finally, this is from Dave Sagar, ScrabbleStar56. By the way, again, it was ScrabbleStar.
27:05
I love when the, when the, when the handle's ScrabbleStar. Man, you must- 56... he must dominate- He is... at Scrabble. Oh, he must be great. Triple word score. Gil, please make a public service announcement.
27:14
There is no such thing as positive regression. Regression is negative by definition. Negative regression is obviously a redundancy as well. Thank you, sir. Did somebody say positive regression? Yeah, I don't know.
27:23
That happens a lot though. [laughs] Would not be me. Thank you, Dave Sagar. I like what we see. English teachers everywhere- Mm-hmm... runnin' the show. Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for Are We Sure? Let's do it.
27:35
[upbeat music] You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure? I'm positive. Gil and Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure? Yeah. Let's do this.
27:52
Been a few weeks since we've done this. Estamos seguros. Forgot about the catchy tune it has. Look at the little shoulder bop Kelly's got going on. Look at that guy. Look at the catchy- Look at that guy right there...
27:59
Are We Sure tune. [laughs] Hey, look, look. You could really snap to that. [laughs] Oh, God. I cannot snap. We've gone over this before, right? Next hour, Kelly teaches everybody how to Dougie. That's right.
28:10
We have gone over this before, and I can't snap really. This is the best I can do snapping. [snaps] It's not crisp. Can you do it with the other hand? Oh, no, I can't even remotely come close with the other one.
28:18
You can only snap your fingers with the one hand. With the middle finger on my right hand with the thumb. [snaps] And I can't... It's not very crisp. [snaps] It's very sad. Wow.
28:27
It's one of the most pathetic things about me. [laughs] Wow. You ready? That's impressive. Are we su- sure Kelly can learn how to snap at this age? No. That just came right off the dome. Yeah. That was a good answer. No.
28:40
I don't think he can. No, I, I think that ship has- You should've figured it out by now... ship has sailed for you. You think someone does snapping lessons? Like is there...
28:46
If, if I go to YouTube right now, is there a YouTube video on here's how to snap your fingers? How is it, how is it that you know... So you clearly know how to do it with one hand, but you can't do it with the other.
28:55
Why can't you just reproduce it? Yeah, but I'm not even that good at it on the dominant hand. It's- Well-... it's tough to watch. But it's- It really is tough to watch. [laughs] I, we've seen enough. Oh, man.
29:05
All right, Gil. Are we sure the NBA MVP race is down to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama, and Cade Cunningham? Yes. So I would be excluding Luka Dončić, Jaylen Brown- And everybody else...
29:23
and everybody else. Yes. I don't know who else is left. Uh, this is the, this is, by the way, up to date. Uh, we talked about these yesterday, the NBA MVP race.
29:30
These are with the best odds at DraftKings and FanDuel listed for the top six guys. The games played by these players versus the total team games played thus far. Shai missing another one last night.
29:42
And then on the far right column, the player games that these individuals can still afford to miss before they are ruled an eligible team game.
29:50
So Shai can miss six more out of the Thunder's remaining 22, and then you see it for everybody else. Jokic can only miss one more. Victor can only miss three more.
29:59
Uh, to answer your question, you, you have put it to the top four. Yeah. Yes. Only Shai, Jokic, Cade, or Wembanyama can win this in my opinion. I agree. I am sure. I, I, I think we're down to that.
30:10
I, I know, I, like I keep getting a lot of Jaylen Brown questions. No. And occasionally Luka. I, I think we're down. Jaylen Brown, I, I'm actually getting a little tired of this k- uh, this argument because it's...
30:21
I was, I've, I've always been pro Jaylen Brown. I thought he was awesome in college at Cal. Coming out of Cal, I thought he could be a huge superstar.
30:28
I was always in, like, on the wrong side honestly of the Jaylen Brown/Jayson Tatum argument when it first started. He's had an amazing season.
30:36
Clearly has proven that he can be the go-to guy on a team by himself, and be one of the best two-way players in the NBA.
30:44
The resume just doesn't, the resume, the stats, the sched- uh, the where they're gonna end up in the standings, all of it combined just doesn't-
30:51
It doesn't, it's not better than all these other cases And Luka has be- I said this yesterday, Luka has become too unlikable. He whines every time down court. You see Zach Lowe went off on this? Mm-hmm.
31:01
Zach Lowe says, "Are you playing to get a call or are you playing basketball? What are you doing?" He c- they're, they're gonna be the, they're gonna be the sixth seed, maybe the five seed in the Western Conference.
31:10
Yeah Like, that's the bigg- it, it's unfortunate that's the biggest thing that's holding it back, though. So, so far two 100% sures.
31:15
You, you will not be able to snap your fingers with your left hand, and only those four guys, Shai, Jokic, Cunningham, Wembanyama, can win MVP. Hey, Gil, are we sure Cooper Flagg will win Rookie of the Year? No.
31:26
As you and I have discussed, he keeps missing games. We are not sure about that. Crazy, man. Yeah, they're like, I got Zach going nuts about Kiante George in Salt Lake City. It's like, the Jazz aren't playing the guy.
31:38
Mm-mm. I, these, these awards markets in the NBA have turned into something bizarro this year. Nobody's gonna care about that one, right?
31:46
So that's the point of, of my, my, what, my deep conspiracy, right, about the, the voters trying to make a statement. I- I know it's a little silly. I, even I admit it's, it's a little silly.
31:55
You want, you went a level, a level deeper. Yeah, a level deeper. Yeah, yeah. Right? Yeah, than, than everybody else. The, the Kiante George one's not gonna get any, any attention, right?
32:04
But the, because it's Ru- uh, Cooper Flagg and Rook- Rookie of the Year, wow, I can't... Rupert Flagg is what I almost said about three times. I think it could pick up some steam here. We'll see.
32:13
Uh, okay, are we sure the Warriors should have moved on from Jonathan Kuminga? He was so good in his Atlanta Hawks debut. Are we sure the...
32:21
Well, I said this before the Hawks debut, I said it several times, I'm a Warriors guy. This is a, this is a stain on this organization, the way that they treated Kuminga. Oh, it's so bad.
32:31
So, but your question is should they have moved on? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, Steve Kerr ruined that relationship systematically for years. Clearly. So yes, at that point you have to. And they mo- and they were petty about it.
32:43
They were saying his boys were stealing food. It's like his family, right? They're like, "Yeah." Oh, my God, yes. They, they, they destroyed that.
32:50
Imagine, imagine a professional sports organization, like the amount of stealing of food- Oh, my God... that would have to, had to have been done from the kitchen for you to actually let that slip out there in the media.
33:01
Like, that's, it's wild. Uh, are we sure Duke should be second on the odds board behind Michigan? I don't know about that. Yeah. I was kinda thinking the same thing. I just, I just, I just bet Yukon before the show.
33:10
I, I don't th- I don't even know if you know that Michigan is without question number one, although Michigan should be number one. Right. I, I would agree with that, but I don't know who two is.
33:19
I don't know if it's Arizona. I don't know if it's Yukon. I don't know who it is. Oregon finally down to 11 to one. Okay. Florida's great.
33:26
Key- I swear, I, I say it kinda jokingly, I've, I have heard it has been 99.8% of who's gonna win national championship in the past two months, Florida. Get that team.
33:36
That would be, that would be Yukon, Yukon, Florida, Florida, if I'm not mistaken, the last four years if that happens. They'd do great. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, okay. Are we sure Fernando Mendoza will be a hit for the Raiders?
33:45
A hit? Yes. In, in- As in he's their quarterback for the next six years. Oh. Nah. I'm not sure about anything with this organization. Yeah, me neither. And I love Mendoza. I'm not sure about Fernando Mendoza stuff.
33:57
Oh, wow. [laughs] Here's Kel- Kelly's not sure about other things with Mendoza. And you're like- [laughs]... are you sure he's a Mendoza, that kind of thing? Uh, crack coming up. We got more to talk about.
34:08
More are we sures. Do we have, are we sures left? Yeah, we do have a couple actually. Coming up, Numbers Game, VSIN, the sports betting network.
34:13
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network. Can I interest you in a, uh, trade in the NFL?
34:31
What you got? Jets and Titans. Yeah. Bottom of the league with the rare player for player, defensive, uh, player for player trade here. The Jets are trading Jermaine Johnson to the Titans for Devondre Sweat.
34:46
Now, the only reason that's interesting to me again is because think about how quickly things change in the NFL. Mm-hmm.
34:53
Two seasons ago, so, uh, we'll, we'll say we're still in the 2025 season, so basically it's two and a half, but it's, it's, it'll be three seasons next year. But f- so three seasons ago,
35:04
the Jets defense with Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams- Yeah... Jermaine Johnson, the 2023 season. There's prob- there's probably four other guys we're missing.
35:15
They're like, they're like, "This is the great young defense that's gonna be phenomenal forever." Yeah. They're all gone. All of them. Wild. Quinnen Williams a Cowboy, Sauce a, a Colt. They're all gone now. Geez.
35:28
Uh, all right, wanna recap the bets be- before are we sure, or wanna continue are we sure? Yeah, let's hit the bets. Bets. Tennis. Two on the ladies' side today. One in Austin, Texas, one in Merida, Mexico.
35:41
Kimberly Birrell is in Austin, Texas. You can get a better number on her than I did last night for VSIN Pro subscribers. I got minus 128, uh, versus Caroline Dolehide.
35:51
That right now, we did at the top of the show, it was better. It was like minus 116. 118, yeah. It's minus 118 now. So you get 10 cents better. Zeyneb Sönmez, I got a plus 108 last night versus Ann Li.
36:02
That one is not as good, uh, currently. Zeyneb Sönmez is, well, she's back to even money. So it, it was at minus 106 this morning. It's even money. So I got 10 cents better on this one, basically.
36:15
So you'll have a better number on Birrell, you'll have a worse number on Sönmez, basically, for these two matches today as multiple tournaments go around the clock here on this week before Indian Wells.
36:28
Next week, uh, Zach, Drew, and I, hopefully if we can work it out, will have a Beating the Book podcast Indian Wells preview. Or as, uh, if you wanna say by sponsorship, the BNP Paribas Open. No one calls it that.
36:39
Indian Wells. Um, tennis' fifth major. We'll try to do it after the draw, before the tournament starts. Literally like a 36-hour thing to try to get it in there.
36:50
Um, also by the way, we have a, uh, just as that day, just 'cause scheduling wise, it's gonna be tough. We're having a baseball draft. Do you know about this, the Futures Baseball Draft as well? I do, to a degree.
37:02
Uh, [laughs] to a d- would you like to, would you like to expound upon that, Kelly? No, I was just trying to help coordinate things Oh, yeah. No, sure. No. Yeah. Do you wanna say anything else?
37:09
As long as you know exactly what you're doing is all that matters. Oh, sure. Of course I know. Uh, it's the 2026 VSiN MLB Futures Draft.
37:15
I, I say this because it's r- gonna be right around when the Indian Wells podcast is as well. So early next week there's a bunch going on.
37:23
The 2026 MLB Futures Draft is gonna be at 1:00 PM Eastern Tuesday right here at VSiN, and it's going to be...
37:30
We did this for football as well, but it's basically you have to pick in all kinds of categories: division winner, pennant winner, manager of the year, World Series winner, win total over, win total under, MVPs for both leagues, Cy Youngs for both leagues, rookies of the year, that kind of thing.
37:45
Uh, I will participate in it. Hell of a list on here. Mark Borchard, our buddy, base winner, will be in it as well. Jensen Lewis, of course, headlining, uh, VSiN host, Buy the Books, former ballplayer.
37:57
Steve Phillips, former GM of the Mets, MLB Network radio host, he will participate in this. Howard Bender, Fantasy Alarm, uh, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.
38:06
Jeff Erickson, our own from Rotowire, and of course VSiN host for Prop Points. Adam Burke, our VSiN managing editor. Matt Youmans, Matt Brown. Who? Lance Lynn, former ballplayer. Lance Lynn. Yeah. He'll be in it as well.
38:19
So not only VSiN folks, but also non-VSiN folks who are big in, uh, in baseball. We do this whole draft next week Tuesday, 1:00 PM Eastern right here on the network. Uh, in addition to the tennis plays,
38:32
I have the brain dead NBA MLB parlay. Uh, NBA MLB. The, the, the NBA parlay of the day. ML parlay. [laughs] That's right, ML. As we try to just accumulate units. Again, we're up, uh, 0.78 units.
38:44
We try for another half unit. This pays 50 cents on the dollar. Hornets, Spurs, Hawks, money line parlay tonight in the association.
38:53
Uh, the op- the opponents in those games, Hornets taking on the Pacers, Spurs taking on the Nets, Hawks playing the Wizards.
39:00
Uh, before the show today I also made a bet on UConn to win the national championship at 16 to 1, much like with my Indiana to win college football.
39:08
Not the greatest number that I could have gotten here in the last couple days, but I just wanna get it before it drifts any lower. And then earlier this week, yesterday, Victor Wembanyama to win NBA MVP at 25 to 1.
39:19
That is now down to 18 to 1 after yesterday. And Kelly, for God's sakes- Still think it should be shorter, man... and not, not list. I, I think you're right. And- What, what'd I say yesterday?
39:28
I think it should be like 10 to 1. But, uh- I, I believe that is what you said. Yeah. A- anything 20s that you can still get, I think it's a, I think it's a great bet right now.
39:35
And then right before the show, not listed, ladies and gentlemen, bankroll builders on Cal Sheet for Love is Blind. Mike, who dates Emma, Devante, who dates Brittany, Ashley, who dates that serial liar, Alex,
39:49
all three of them no to get married just to build a bankroll. Pennies on the dollar. Love it. Absolutely love it.
39:55
This guy, Alex, by the way- You started bringing this up and I'm like, "What did me and Danny forget to get in there?" Like... [laughs] Love is Blind. Love, Love is Blind. I don't know why you guys won't post that.
40:02
[laughs] Um, Alex, by the way, he, he went after, he's this former goalie for Wake Forest. He was a good goalie, right? [laughs] But never mentions that he was a goalie, right? Just says he was a soccer player.
40:12
During the show- It's still my favorite part of the show... he says, he says, "Tim Howard," like the, these other players come up. He says, "David Beckham isn't even good. Tim Howard is weird," right?
40:21
So Tim Howard went on his podcast and he was like, "So my daughter calls me and tells me- [laughs]... some dude on some show has gone after me." And him and Landon Donovan are, like, spending 10 minutes talking about it.
40:32
First of all, Sir David Beckham to you. Oh, it's just this show is ridiculous. Well, I mean, that w- that's like the most obvious USA pairing for a podcast. Yeah, Tim Howard and Landon Donovan.
40:42
What, what do they talk about, though? I don't know. [laughs] It's the only thing I've ever seen of them. Only thing that ever got in my algorithm. All right.
40:47
Like, you think, you think they're doing, like, Premier League breakdowns or, like, MLS preview? There's- Like, I don't want that... there's no telling, and I'm not curious enough to find out. I kinda am now. Hmm.
40:57
No, no, I kinda am now. Tim Howard, T- but both those guys seemingly played for Team USA for roughly 28 years. Yep. I think you're correct. Uh, I have a parlay myself.
41:07
Hornet Spurs, those were the e- very quick and easy money lines I thought, uh, on the, uh, brain dead taking stuff. [laughs] I did combine with the Lakers, though, last night.
41:16
I absolutely think the Hawks, uh, are, are a good money line parlay piece as well. Um, just saw some injuries yesterday.
41:22
That's kinda why I didn't plug them in yet, and I wanted to move the, uh, wanted to beat the number move on the Lakers last night.
41:28
So Hornets, Spurs, Lakers all on the money line for me, and I, I brought up earlier, I might just end up laying it with the Hornets.
41:35
I'm not usually a guy who lays big, big numbers, especially on the road, but this Pacers team, oy. Siakam downgraded to doubtful already. Looks, I mean, everybody's gonna go for Charlotte. They've had a day off now.
41:46
Um, and the Spurs, it might be a back-to-back for them. I've really got no concern with the Nets, uh, them going up against the Nets. Looking forward to the first day this does bite us in the ass. Oh, it's coming. Yeah.
41:55
One of these days. It's coming. It's coming. Anything else? Oh, Zach Cohen, magic. Money line, plus 118 versus the Rockets.
42:03
He's also on the Clippers money line and the points, the plus five and a half versus the T-Wolves. Clippers, by the way, on the m- sprinkling on the money line, plus 185 versus the T-Wolves tonight from Zach.
42:13
He's also on Tyrese Maxey of the Sixers, over seven and a half assists at plus 112 versus the Miami Heat. Uh- Just be careful on that one.
42:21
Zach knows fully what he's getting, getting into with the Clippers, but Kawhi Leonard is a big time questionable tonight.
42:27
Joe Peta, second part of his three-part baseball series, and he will have tons of these season win totals next time he's on, but he wanted to do the whole analysis of one team, of one of the 30 Major League teams, the Mets.
42:37
Over 88 and a half regular season wins from Joe on the show earlier today. So there you go. Those were all the plays. Um, are we sures? Let's wrap them up. Here we go. Yeah. Yeah, let's finish them up here. Mm-hmm.
42:50
Are we sure Arvell Reese will be the second pick in the NFL draft? I'm not. I know it sounds like he is now Based on the betting market.
42:59
But as we talked about, neither Keiper nor Jerem- nor Jeremiah has him going second to the Jets. Who knows if the Jets end up with that pick at the end? I, there's a lot of time between now and the draft. Two months.
43:11
Official measurements today for those guys, Danny tells me. Oh, very exciting stuff. I'm exci- I'm, I, I wish I could give the kids something right now just for, like, participating and working out.
43:21
Like, it just- Yeah... feels like everybody doesn't wanna hurt their stock at the j- uh, at the combine these, uh, these days. The fact that he's running, um, good for him. Good for him.
43:29
Are we sure Josh Allen should be the favorite to win MVP? Um, yeah, he's as good a choice as any. Yeah. It's either him or, I mean, I think he should be.
43:38
Yeah, Kelly, every single year he should be, uh, the favorite, absolutely. Move on to the next question. [laughs] This is dumb and easy. Come on. No, he should be. He should be.
43:44
[laughs] Only because with Patrick Mahomes, we don't know when he's starting the season, so. That's right. Yeah. All right, coming in at
43:51
number three on Kelly's most fascinating stories in sports and sports betting right now, Scottie Scheffler, are we sure he has a Thursday problem? Oh, this is, this is fantastic. No, we're not sure yet.
44:02
We're not sure yet. Let's, it's still a small sample size. Catch me in two more tournaments. It's crazy, man. Yeah.
44:08
It's just, it's just crazy 'cause if you, like, me and Byron Li- I hopped on with Byron Lind- Lindeque on his podcast the beginning of this season, and we broke down for, like, 30 minutes first round scoring numbers from last year.
44:20
Scottie Scheffler was by far the best, by far his best round of any round that- Yeah... he scores in, and I get it to every question. I get it w- why I've been asked so many times about it.
44:30
You know, you know what it is though? It's crazy. I mean, it sure makes betting on golf that much more interesting. Oh, it sure does. It's, it's almost like, "Thank you, Scottie, you now become bettable." Mm-hmm.
44:38
Because pre-flop you kinda aren't. Yeah. So. And, like, other guys might actually have a shot at winning a tournament. Or that. Yeah. Yeah.
44:45
Ladies and gentlemen, the triumphant return of Bill Krackenberger on the other side. Crack in studio. I'm sure he's got much on his mind. Uh, oh, here, one last tweet, Kr- Kelly, before you go.
44:54
Brian Lamb, "Kelly, oh my God, I thought I was the only one with finger snapping deficiencies. I too am limited to one hand and am even ridiculed by my own wife for not doing it right.
45:01
Perhaps we'll start a support group." Or a barbershop quar- quartet. Oh, don't do that. Crack, next. [upbeat music]
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