Search
Login
Sign Up
Feb 27, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 27, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 27, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:36
1×
Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It's my little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. How you doing? Good, man. We're back in black today. Yeah.
0:26
Well, we both are doing this button thing, but I'm wearing a shirt where the button really doesn't work up top. Yeah, a lot of chest today, folks. Oh, ladies, enjoy.
0:34
[laughs] Um, [laughs] on this show- No extra charge for this show either [laughs] No extra charge. Uh, it's Thursday. You know what that means, Zach the Crack on the show today.
0:42
Zach Cohen will join us to talk, uh, NBA, maybe some tennis, anything he's betting, maybe some baseball futures. Adam Burke, speaking of baseball, Adam Burke, the author of the VSiN Baseball Betting Guide, out now?
0:55
Out now. Out now. Ready to go. VSiN managing editor Adam Burke with, uh, some of his big season-long plays, including why I am wrong on the Cleveland Guardians under. Bum, bum, bum. Yeah.
1:06
He's gonna tell me why I'm wrong, why I'm wrong, so we're looking forward to that.
1:09
Um, I think the biggest sports, sort of the sports betting thing of the moment is this injury to Abdul Carter that it was revealed, a foot injury. Now, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, Kelly.
1:22
This is, I want you to lean in for this. You kind of need your feet. You can't really avoid them. Thanks very much. Um, and so- Feet in football? Yeah.
1:30
Now, so the odds have shifted on Abdul Carter, of course the legacy of the number 11 at Penn State.
1:37
Linebacker Abdul Carter going number one, he became the dog on this news, and this morning now Adam Schefter saying, however, he will not need surgery, so a little bit of a tick back.
1:50
So Abdul Carter, who got, who drifted out to about plus 185-ish, now plus 170 currently looking at these numbers to be picked number one, currently the Tennessee Titans sitting in that position.
2:02
You, you and I had the same reaction sort of independently this morning, which is before we saw the Schefter tweet anyway, which is, uh, this seems like a pretty big deal.
2:10
They're not making enough of here, and the betting market did suggest that it was a big deal. Yeah, I'm, I'm with you. It was a little...
2:17
I, I was, so look, a lot of shops yesterday took down odds, which completely I understand that reaction. I, the ones that left them up, though, just the, the lack of movement on them, uh, I mean, it was very small.
2:30
I, I, it was surprising.
2:31
I, I, I don't, there's a lot of questions this, uh, about this to me, 'cause why do you, like, why do you go to the combine if, like, if you know that, if you know you have an injury, right, that's gonna pop up, why don't you get out in front of this?
2:44
I, it, there's just, it's, it's very odd. It's very odd. This is what Schefter- Here's the Schefter tweet.
2:48
"Doctors told Penn State defensive end," that's what he's calling him, uh, we'll see where he lines up as a pro, "and projected number one pick Abdul Carter that after further scans on his right foot, surgery not advisable.
2:59
Carter will work out at his March 28th pro day at Penn State." By the way, let me just say this, surgeries on hands and feet, period, are not advisable. You wanna do everything you possibly can to avoid those.
3:09
But his pro day will be March 28th. Uh, Schefter goes on to say, and this is a quote from Carter's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, quote, "I couldn't be more confident that this will be a non-factor where he's drafted.
3:19
He will put on a show at his pro day," unquote. Well, what do you expect Drew Ro- Right... Rosenhaus to say? And secondly, that part about the pro day is really the mark that we should think about, right?
3:29
That's the day that matters, March 28th. It does. It just feel, it feels like there's a lot of, there, this is too much, uh, too much of, "Hey, let me say something about how this, this is nothing.
3:40
Let me say something about how there's nothing going on here." Would you make a bet? Here's, here's the real question from a betting standpoint. Yeah.
3:48
And this is just, is just how you think this is going to go in terms of his health, so it's a complete speculation on how you think his pro day will go probably. Um, will you ever get him at a longer number than this?
4:00
And if not, do you just make a numbers-based bet here to have it for the April draft?
4:07
Yeah, I think there's still, I, I think for me personally, we're still a little too far out of just even knowing what this number one pick market is. You know what I mean? Quarterback or a Carter, right?
4:17
Quarterback or Carter. I just think if you were, if you were thinking about making a Carter bet right now, man, I think you gotta wait. Like, I think you gotta wait.
4:25
I- Draft King, DraftKings says Cam Ward at minus 155, Abdul Carter at plus 185. At FanDuel, it's minus 135 for Ward, Carter plus 170 to go number one. Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders third and fourth.
4:37
Like, completely understand what you're saying. Like, you m- there's a chance plus 185 is the longest we ever see on this guy. That's right. Right?
4:43
But, like, I, I don't, I don't- I'm just talking about a brain-dead bet, maybe just to have. Yeah, I don't care. I don't think you can. Yeah. I don't think you can right now.
4:50
Th- this news scares me at least enough that I don't think you could make that bet right now. The other NFL news, that was the betting news. Can we do a little sports talk radio?
4:57
Yeah, real quick, I did see interest, one inter- uh, other interesting tweet about Travis Hunter yesterday. It sounds like ba- w- 'cause we've been asking this question, wide receiver or cornerback. Yeah.
5:05
Sounds like every, almo- almost all the NFL p- uh, front offices talking at the combine, it's almost all of them are saying, "Wide receiver is what we're looking at, at him for." Yeah. I think, I think that.
5:16
More than the D-back. Yeah. There was a blip- There, there's a couple teams... there was a blip during the season where someone said, "Well, I think he'll be cornerback first," but it sounds like it's wide out first.
5:23
Who knows with all this? Mm-hmm.
5:25
Uh, the sports talk radio part of this, the other NFL news yesterday was, 'cause we do [laughs] guessing lines every Monday, and it's wall-to-wall football, and how much of guessing lines is just us going crazy about officiating?
5:36
Oh, yeah. So the NFL had a slew of, uh, announcements yesterday about some of the changes that they're looking at. Onside kicks, they know that they have to make a change there.
5:47
Um, one of the big things there that, that we were screaming about was, hey, you know, uh, the touchback needs to be at the 35 yard line to, to, uh, sort of induce more Uh, teams to not kick it out of the end zone, and that looks like it could be in the offing, uh, at some point.
6:04
Um, they also talked about replay assist, which I, you know, I joked about all season long, like when did this happen? When were the parameters set? How come nobody told us?
6:13
Um, now they're saying, uh, that the, the NFL plans with rev- to, to have some expansion of replay assist, including more fouls, but that there was no appetite for the committee to use replay to throw a pl- to throw a flag.
6:27
In other words, um, that would have to have a new rule, uh, change proposed for them to be able to throw a flag on replay assist. Remember, replay assist meant you could pick up a flag. Right.
6:39
And it applied, uh, this past year, now we're learning the full scope of it- [laughs] Yeah...
6:44
to rough- to roughing the passer, contact with head and neck, unnecessary roughness, runner out of bounds, intentional grounding and el- and, and ineligible player downfield.
6:53
Expansion under consideration would include roughing the passer hit below the knee, that would be brand new.
7:00
Unnecessary roughness, defenseless receiver player, face mask, contact of hand with face mask, tripping, illegal crack back block, and horse collar, among other things. So we'll see. But the biggest thing...
7:12
And oh, by the way, and overtime rules too. Overtime rules, they're really considering making the regular season just like they have in the postseason now.
7:20
Postseason overtime rules, as you know, uh, both teams get the ball at least once, a touchdown on the first drive does not end things like it does in the regular season.
7:30
Um, those playoff rules were precipitated by the epic Buffalo-Kansas City finish a couple years ago in the playoffs.
7:37
So now they're considering doing that for the regular season, maybe even going to a 15-minute, back to a 15-minute period. Okay. Real quick, what do you think about the over- overtime one?
7:45
Or, or the, the, uh, the one change there? I have never, I've never had as much of a problem with the overtime thing as some people have, but I get why people do. Okay. Me either. Yeah.
7:52
Me either, but I do think they should change it and go to just how they do it in the playoffs. Yeah, I don't, I don't... It doesn't make me go nuts about it. Um- You know, I'm, I'm cool with it...
7:59
the replay assist one, I don't know. I just, it infuriates me even more, Gill. 'Cause I think it, wasn't the one thing that we were outraged the most about of just when, when are you using this and when are you not? Yes.
8:12
And that didn't really answer that at all. Well, this is more of an explanation than we ever got during the regular season. No, that's true. Yeah.
8:17
But it also doesn't tell me, like, well, so what's going on when you guys go on the field and say, "With the help of replay assist, we decided this," versus why does it take six minutes sometimes and you don't use this at all?
8:29
Okay, can I get to the one I really wanna talk about? Yeah, yeah. [laughs] Okay. The NFL, in all its infinite wisdom, has decided that they're gonna use Hawk Eye technology moving forward.
8:39
Now, ladies and gentlemen, you may know me as a tennis guy, and, uh, a little dessert, a little, how about a little history on the use of Hawk Eye? Are you interested in that at all? Let's go.
8:48
Uh, Hawk Eye started with cricket in 2000. Wow.
8:52
In 2004, there was a tennis match, um, at the, at the US Open, quarterfinal between Serena Williams and Jennifer Capriati, and Serena had like three calls that she got hosed on, and they were trying out some system.
9:06
Because remember, when we were kids, John McEnroe, right, y- y- you know, John McEnroe, Ilie Nastase, Jimmy Connors if you go back further, they would berate the umpire. Mm-hmm. Right?
9:16
It would be like full legalized screaming and, like, verbal violence. Um, you cannot be serious being the, uh, the most famous one of all those from McEnroe. So 2004, they have this match. Serena gets hosed three times.
9:29
They know about this technology in cricket. They're trying to s- they're s- they're sort of testing it out in tennis.
9:34
And one of the, uh, the technology they're using at the time shows that one of the calls against Serena was actually wrong, and Capriati goes on, wins the match, and tennis is like, "We gotta have a system.
9:44
We gotta make this, you know, digitized, uh, electronic."
9:47
So a year and a half later, starting in Key Biscayne, Florida, because Key Biscayne is awesome, at the, what at the time was the fifth major in tennis, 2006 in March, they used Hawk Eye for the first time.
9:57
It was a replay system. A replay ch- it was a challenge system at first. Right. Okay? But it worked so well that that same year, 2006, the US Open immediately started using it. 2007, Australian Open started using it.
10:10
Um, by the way, uh, 2007 at, I wanna say it was Wimbledon, they were using it and like it was an d- it was the final, N- Nadal-Federer, and, uh, Nadal challenged a call that went out.
10:23
Hawk Eye showed that it was in, and Federer, this is how primitive it was, this is 2007, Federer went to the ump and was like, "Let's not use this system anymore for the rest of the match."
10:31
[laughs] And they were like, "No, sorry. It's, it's a thing now." Like that was an option. Yeah, yeah. [laughs] So anyway, fast-forward to the pandemic, right? Because at this point it's still a replay system.
10:39
What you know now in tennis is Hawk Eye Live- Right... where you see it instantly, right? It's 10 cameras projected, triangulated. You can see it. It gets relayed quickly. You can tell if the ball's in or out.
10:50
During the pandemic, because they wanted fewer humans around, the US Open decided besides in Louis Armstrong and Arthur Ashe, no humans anymore besides the ump, right?
10:58
It worked so well, 2000, uh, 2021, uh, Australian Open, no humans whatsoever. The first slam with no humans at all besides the ump. 2022, the US Open, no humans even in the stadiums.
11:10
And this year in Wimbledon, no humans besides the umpire. Only clay, right, only clay is where they still used line judges because remember the ball makes a mark in clay- Mm...
11:21
and then they get to argue over, "That wasn't the ball mark from that point." Right [laughs] yeah, yeah. Right? Which is why you see like players sweeping the, the clay all the time.
11:26
Anyway, the point of all that is not to regale you with Hawk Eye. It's to say how long did this take for you, NFL?
11:31
And the other part of this is I don't think it's gonna work in football because the refs are still spotting the ball. So what does it matter?
11:39
The ump doesn't come down in tennis and spot where the ball landed and go, "Hawk Eye, have at it." And it's only gonna be used for first downs. We need a chip. This doesn't solve anything. Stupid NFL.
11:49
Coming back, Zach Cohen. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network On a numbers game, where we give a, a riveting dissertation of the history of Hawk Eye and why the NFL is so late in this.
12:07
Let me just clarify also what I said at the end. What Kelly was saying is right. They'll use it for the fir- to, to determine if it's a first down, but on the previous plays in that sequence, they don't use it.
12:18
So in the aggregate, what are we doing? It doesn't make any sense. It doesn't make sense. I mean, if, if it's, it's a second down play- [laughs]... and I went for five yards, but they get it wrong- No...
12:27
they get it wrong by a yard. Sorry, we're humans. You only went for four. I don't, I don't... It just amazes me how they, the NFL comes up with these rules, then sounds...
12:36
Like, they always have this cocky tone about it, right, of like, "Well, we were doing this in the background last year. You just didn't know about it." You just didn't know about it.
12:42
"So we gathered a bunch of data, okay? So we know what's going on." Yeah. And then you're like, "Well, I..." Like, "W- what about this, this, this, this, this?" And then we never get answers to it or anything. It is.
12:50
I will say this.
12:51
If they can ever perfect it, which it sounds like they're not quite there, but, [laughs] it, we've only had tennis, you know, just workshopping this for 20 years, 25 years now almost, uh, 20 years to be exact.
13:02
Um, you know, it, it... Does it come up ever today? Like, it's complete- it's a sea change in the sport. Yeah. Right? Like, from when we were kids. Yes. It's a complete sea change. Completely changed things.
13:12
Why did it take the NFL this long to do anything about it?
13:15
Because the only time it ever comes up in tennis now, there was a, there was a hardcore tournament earlier this year where, like, some of the players thought the triangulation itself was a little off.
13:25
By the way, the, the margin of error is, like, two millimeters- Mm... on the whole thing. But they thought on this one court it was a little off, so I get it.
13:33
But, but at the French Open, we will still have, I know you love this, Kelly, we will still have the umpire come off his chair- Love it. I love it... or her chair.
13:39
She will dramatically walk right up to a spot- [laughs]... and she will be like, "Out." It's great. She'll do that. And then the players will lose their minds. It's great.
13:46
I just think the NFL one that's so crazy is, like, the, the ability to have this technology. The technology chasm, divide, between that- Oh... and the chain crew is just so massive.
13:57
And the chain crew will still be there as a- Which-... backup... which, like, I... Like, Gil, is probably the funniest part to me.
14:03
And, like, I, like, A, I don't want anybody to lose their job, but it just feels like we gotta protect the chain crew's jobs. There, there have been- Like, we can't be slashing jobs in the NFL.
14:12
We'll bring in Zach Cohen for this. You can follow Zach on Betting on X on Twitter. He's our recent senior editor and, of course, uh, writes about, uh, tennis, uh, the NBA most prominently, but all kinds of sports.
14:21
There have been also tennis matches, I remember, when they were workshopping this over the 20 years, where the technology would go out in the middle of a match.
14:27
Someone would get hosed on a call, and then the technology would reappear. But, like, that stuff doesn't happen anymore. Right.
14:32
And there's only, like, a rogue player who dares argue with it, like that hamburger Jelena Ostapenko. But other than that, everyone just takes it face value. Zach, NFL, Hawk Eye, what's happening?
14:45
I, I guess I'll accept it. I mean, I, I'd rather see them try something than, you know, we see these games get decided by really bad calls. Yeah. Well, it's only taken 20 years is my point on that.
14:54
Do you have any tennis plays today globally? Five tournaments. Uh, I do. I have a bunch. I, I have a few over on the website. Uh, one of them is Petra Martic plus one and a half sets against Emma Navarro in, uh, Marida.
15:05
Oh, yeah. I, I just think that Martic has played really, really well over the last couple weeks. She made a pretty deep run in Linz and, uh, has played pretty well at this tournament.
15:12
Three matches, uh, three straight set wins, including her qualifying matches. And I just have not been impressed with Emma Navarro this season. I thought she was a little shaky at the Australian Open.
15:22
She won only, uh, two matches over three in, in the Middle East. I just, I just think this is a really bad time for her. Add her to the list.
15:28
By the way, I, I thought about playing Martic on the, uh, on the money line, and I didn't have the cojones to do it. But, uh, there is definitely some data that supports what you're talking about.
15:37
Add Navarro to the list of just this strange thing that's happened in 2025, where these ladies at the top of the tour- [laughs]... have all taken a strange step back.
15:45
Some, some a step, some a baby step, some a giant leap back. It's very strange with some of these. Anything else? Yeah. Uh, yeah, I d- I do like Matteo Berrettini against Tsitsipas.
15:55
I, I have that at plus 118 'cause it's the second leg of a parlay, and the first one came in this morning with Luca Nardi winning a set against Quentin Halys.
16:03
But I do like Berrettini at around minus 150, which I think is what it's at. I just kinda think that in a court like this where it's very fast, I'll take the player with the better serve and the better forehand.
16:13
These are two very similar players in that they both kinda have those two shots as weapons, and weakness is on the backhand side. I think Berrettini's a little stronger on the backhand side because he does slice it.
16:23
And, you know, I thought Berrettini just has looked a lot better since the start of the season, and he did win the last matchup between these two, uh, which was in Stuttgart last year. Stuttgart. Stuttgart.
16:33
He just wanted to say Stuttgart. You know, Stuttgart. I know what he's up to. Uh, I'm with you. It's Berrettini or nothing for me, it would be, on that one. Anything else?
16:40
Uh, I did play Griekspoor plus one and a half sets against Medvedev. That just started, so maybe wait for, you know, a clean opportunity to get in there, but that's just kind of a fade on Medvedev.
16:49
He's looked a little bit better this tournament, but just been so poor, uh, in form over the last, you know, four, five months. Just his, the serve has kinda gotten away from him.
16:58
Uh, I don't think he looks as strong as, you know, defending the baseline, and Griekspoor's a, a really solid player on these faster courts.
17:04
Uh, Chris Falica, The Bear from Fox Sports, you may know him, uh, he, uh, texted me this morning.
17:07
He says there might be, uh, in the tennis tournament in Marida, in, on the, on the women's side, there might be a, uh, sickness outbreak coming out both sides- Oh... he said, so just keep that in mind.
17:16
Acapulco, there's so- there's something going on in Acapulco too. Oh, okay. So maybe he meant Acapulco instead of Marida. Maybe, yeah. Yeah. Four, I think three players dropped out.
17:24
Holger Rune retired in the first set- Oh... of his match. Yeah, I think there's some type of stomach bug, but- [laughs] It's sync-... or they also just might wanna be...
17:30
Uh, they also just might wanna get to Indian Wells first. Is that what you were gonna say? That's what I- Yeah... that's what I think it is. Yeah. The, the conditions in Acapulco are, are grueling.
17:36
It's the Indian Wells flu they're getting. They're like- [laughs]... "I wanna get, I wanna go to paradise, to tennis paradise quickly." Uh, any season-long baseball from you, Zach? Anything? No.
17:46
I mean, the only thing I'm really looking at is the over on the Red Sox. I, I kinda buy into what they've done over the summer.
17:51
I thought adding Bregman w- was a really good move, and I thought they made some nice moves, you know, adding to their pitching staff.
17:55
I think Buehler's gonna be really good, just the further he gets removed from that injury. So, uh, that's the only one I'm really looking at right now.
18:02
I'm kinda gonna look at a, a deeper dive into baseball this weekend, so I'll be reading up what Adam Burke wrote in the MLB Betting Guide. Adam Burke about to join us too.
18:10
Um- Uh, if we're just, like, sort of anecdotally talking about our most ch- our most common plays, over Reds and over Red Sox- Yes... seem to be our most common. Without a doubt. Without a doubt.
18:20
Every- everybody's bullish on the Reds. Nothing can possibly go wrong. [laughs] Uh, so we'll see. Um, okay, NBA. You got anything tonight? Yeah. I, I'm reluctantly playing the Magic, plus five and a half at minus 118.
18:33
Uh, this has been a really rough stretch for Orlando lately, and there's kind of some, you know, I don't know, unhappiness after the games with Paolo Banchero in the media, and just things look really bad on the outside.
18:44
But I do think this Magic team all year long has just been kind of trustworthy at home. They're 18 and 12 in Orlando, uh, have a plus two net rating at home, and I just think this team can still be trusted defensively.
18:55
They're a top five defensive team in the league. The offense is obviously an issue. That's a little bit scary going against a Warriors team that has been very, very good defensively since acquiring Butler.
19:04
But in a game that I think's going to be very low scoring, I think five and a half's a lot of points. Taking the points against the juggernaut that is the five and one Jimmy Butler. Is it five and one or six and one now?
19:14
I lost track, they're so good. Five and one, I think. I think five and- They're being priced, they're being priced like the Cleveland Cavaliers, though. [laughs] I'll tell you that.
19:21
Uh, Cavs were laying the same number the other day- Yep... until it shot out. By the way, can I just do my what's becoming now, like, sort of a daily thing to you NBA folks? May I call you guys NBA folks?
19:29
Uh, everybody and their mother was on OKC yesterday, and then how far did they fall behind Brooklyn? Like, they were down double digits at the half. I know they ended up winning by eight.
19:38
Almost flirted with the number at one point. You were like, "Are they gonna cover this?" But, I mean, how do you come out that flat after that collapse against the T-Wolves? 'Cause it's the Nets. I- Yeah.
19:49
[laughs] Honestly, I, I'm the biggest defender of the NBA you'll find. I've been finding it very difficult over the last three or four weeks just with the injury report nonsense we've seen. Yeah. Um, what about awards?
20:00
Do you have any bets in, do you have any in pocket for some of these? I have a lot of Rookie of the Year futures. I, I have Stephon Castle 10 to one, uh, Alex Sarr 13 to one, and I added Zachary Reese Oche at 16 to one.
20:12
I also have two tickets on Kyle Ware. Uh, one of them's pretty bad, plus 135, but the other one I got 12 to one, so kind of split between the two at six and a half. But I, I think that that's a really interesting market.
20:24
I, I feel really good about where I'm heading with that one.
20:27
I, I know that Jaylen Wells has kind of picked up some steam there, but I just have a really hard time believing that, you know, a role player quite like that will win, especially when he's competing with another role player on his own team in Zach Edie.
20:38
I think there are some other players I'd be looking at, with, with Ware being the one that I, I'm very interested in.
20:43
I think that he moved to the betting favorite at plus 135 in December, uh, just to kind of have a real... Or maybe it was late January. Just had a really hot shooting stretch.
20:51
Lately, he has cooled off a bit as a scorer, but he's still kind of flirting with a double double, putting up a block a game for, you know, as a starter for a Heat team that is making a push to be one of those top six teams in the Eastern Conference.
21:02
All right. Should win, will win. MVP should win, will win. I think should win Joker, [laughs] and I think will win SGA. I, I'm actually writing something up for the website that will be up this afternoon.
21:14
I really think that the Joker's case is so strong. I, I- Yeah... have a hard time believing he should not win. But I, I know that there's voter fatigue. It's just crazy to deprive him in the best season of his career.
21:25
I totally agree. Defensive Player of the Year should win, will win. I think should win should be Dyson Daniels. I, I think it will be one of the two bigs. I'd probably lean Evan Mobley. Interesting. Okay.
21:39
Man, Montesano's j- his head is exploding- [laughs]... as he's listening to this. Uh, okay, and then finally, [laughs] Most Improved Player should win, will win. I think will win is Cade Cunningham.
21:51
Should win with the current rules is Cade Cunningham. I'm a firm believer in this award going to a lesser player that becomes a very good player out of nowhere. Sorry, the correct answer is Norman Powell.
22:02
Though Norman has to get on the, Norm Powell has to get on the court. Yeah, that's concerning. Yes. Four straight games missed- Yeah... with a knee injury. Yeah. I, wait, I'm gonna press back.
22:08
Zach didn't answer that question. You didn't a- you didn't answer it, of who, who's gonna win. Who should win? He did. He said- I did. I- He said Cade and Cade... yeah. Oh, Cade and Cade?
22:18
Maybe if you listened to the show, Kelly, you'd just know for the minute. Eh, I thought you said Cade was gonna win. Oh, no, no, he's, [laughs] should win. Yeah. Yeah. Okay.
22:26
Well, hate to end it on that sour note right there. Sorry about that, Kelly. I didn't mean to make you- I, I hope you, I hope you cash with Rookie of the Year, Zach.
22:31
I've got, I've gotta get home with Most Improved and Clutch, that's for sure. Can I interest you in an Indian Wells podcast next week, Zach? Absolutely. You know I'm always down to do that. Let's do it.
22:40
Zach Cohen, everybody, betting on X courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it as always. Thanks, guys.
22:46
Adam Burke, the author of our MLB betting guide, all his pla- not all of them, but most of them next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't take a swing in the dark, step up to the plate.
22:58
See what I did there? Prepared with VSiN's MLB betting guide.
23:02
Get expert tips on how to bet baseball, including a stats glossary to help you break down key analytics, dive into awards market analysis for MVP and Cy Young, and gain a player's perspective on evaluating pitchers from former MLB pitcher Jensen Lewis, also the co-host of By the Books, of course, here at VSiN.
23:18
From advanced metrics to sharp betting angles, the VSiN MLB betting guide is your ultimate playbook for the season. Avoid strikeouts at the sportsbook.
23:25
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today for as low as 9.99 and get your copy of the MLB betting guide today. Sign up today at vsin.com/subscribe.
23:33
That's VSiN.com/subscribe, and it gets my full endorsement because besides that Jensen Lewis piece The solo author of this is the guy who I, I mentioned it as recently as yesterday, but I've said it through the years, [clears throat] does the greatest baseball analysis season longs and also during the season, but w- really, I, I came to know him from season longs back in the day at, uh, Bang the Books, which is where he used to, uh, work before VSiN.
24:00
It's the great Adam Burke, ladies and gentlemen. You can follow him on Twitter @skatingtripods. He, of course, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
24:07
Adam, I speak on behalf of Kelly as well, what a great job you did on this guide. Once again, sir, congratulations. Well, thank you. I appreciate it.
24:16
Um, I, you know, I'm not really in the market for an agent, I don't think. [laughs] But if I ever need one, it's going to be you. I'm your guy. So- I'm your guy... I, I appreciate all the kind words about it.
24:24
Thank you so much. Well, let's, let's get this one out of the way. Let's start on. [laughs] That the reason this...
24:29
So usually what happens here on the show, for like six and a half years I booked all the guests, and then, uh, Kelly Bidlin shows up and he's like, "Uh, do you want me to book all the guests?" I'm like, "Sure, please.
24:37
Can you, please?" Um, and then rarely do we ever have anybody who says, "I'm coming on." And we're like- [laughs]... "Oh, okay. I guess we'll have him on." And, and sometimes it's still a joint effort. Yeah.
24:46
Like, there are guys Gil will talk to. Sure. Right? So we- Sure... so, like, it's not a surprise if I hear from Gil, like- Oh, yeah... "Hey, this guy's gonna come on the show this day," 'cause I know Gil talked to him.
24:55
But the other day- [laughs]... I said... That's right. [laughs] But the other day I was like, "Hey, I like the Guardians under."
25:01
And Adam Burke is a lifelong Cleveland Indian/Guardians fan, and he did not take to this kindly. He says, "I'm coming on the show to refute the point." [laughs] Why do you like the Guardians this year, sir? All right.
25:12
Well, I will preface it by saying that I agree with your thought process. I agree with everything that you said, right? The Guardians were a team from a sequencing standpoint that we can call it luck.
25:22
I think a lot of it was just their bullpen was dominant, and so it was really, really good. Because if you look at the splits between the starters and the relievers, the guys stranding all the runners were the relievers.
25:32
So from a sequencing standpoint, yeah, you could argue that the Guardians got a little bit fortunate, and I do think that there's probably a little bit of regression in this team.
25:41
That being said, a win total of 82.5 is way too big of an adjustment for this team in my estimation. Look, remember last year they got 57 starts from Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen, and Tristan McKenzie.
25:54
McKenzie was useless. Carrasco was no good. Allen wasn't any good either. I don't know what they're gonna get out of Gavin Williams.
26:01
I don't know what they're gonna get out of Ben Lively, but I think they're going to get better performances out of those two guys than what they got from the bulk of the bottom of their rotation last year.
26:10
And Luis Ortiz is a guy, even though he struggled in his first spring training start, that they isolated, right? This is a pitching factory. They know what to look for. They know what they want.
26:20
They've brought a ton of guys up to the big leagues and turned them into good pitchers.
26:23
With Luis Ortiz, Slade Ciccone, these are two guys that I think they're going to have really good success with throughout the course of the season.
26:30
Now, I agree with you on Andrés Giménez and the loss of his defensive prowess, it's a big deal.
26:35
However, I think Juan Brito can be a better offensive player, and Juan Brito is just holding that seat warm for Travis Bazan anyway, who's probably gonna be up with the ball club sometime in June or July, their number one overall pick from a couple of years ago.
26:48
Then the other thing is, yeah, they lost Josh Naylor, right? But Kyle Manzardo I think is a better h- all around hitter than Josh Naylor. He'll be probably in a DH platoon with John Kenzie, Noel.
26:58
Carlos Santana's an upgrade at first. I think there's a lot of things to really like about the personnel of this Cleveland team, and I will say, we know that bullpen attrition is a real thing, right?
27:08
This is the bullpen that had the fourth-best ERA dating back to 1995. They were top 15 in F4. They were an elite group.
27:17
Yes, they could slip back a little bit with the long season that they had and all the workload, but they have so many arms back there, just a tremendous depth of arms, that I think they'll be able to overcome it.
27:27
And then finally, the last thing with this team, Steven Vogt empowered every single player on that roster, and this is something I talked to Jensen Lewis about when he was in town a couple of weeks ago.
27:37
The way that Voger was able to get everything possible out of pinch hitters, out of pitchers he put in leverage situations, all this different type of thing, that elevates a ball club.
27:47
And one more thing, I think it's the Royals that take a big step back. I think this division is between the Tigers and the Guardians. Give me Cleveland over 82.5.
27:55
Yeah, I thought about a Royals over, I just couldn't get there. I'm with you on, I'm with you with the Royals. Uh, let's, let's see if we can come into common ground, and then we'll move on from the Guardians.
28:03
Do you agree with me that much of this will be determined by the first couple months? That, in other words, before the Biebers and the Fries of the world return, that the Guardians really need to tread water.
28:16
They n- they need to have Bibee be an ace. They need to have Lively not regress, right? They, they've gotta have things. You know, on every baseball team there's a spectrum, right?
28:25
It all goes your way, it all, all goes against you, and then everything in between. They really need to stay afloat the first two months, don't they? Yeah, they do.
28:32
And I mean, what really kickstarted last season for them, and I know you mentioned this, they came out of the gate remarkably hot. And then in the second half they played a few games better than 500.
28:40
I think they were 39 and 34 in the second half, something like that. So yeah, it's gonna be about how this team starts.
28:46
But I will say this, I think something that's a bit of a benefit for Cleveland in the early part of the season is you don't have this expectation of your starters working deep into games anyway, right?
28:56
They're building their arms up. They're gonna go four or five innings their first couple times out of the gate, things like that.
29:02
Yeah, it puts a little bit of a strain on the bullpen, but that's why they brought in a guy like Jake Junis, who can be a multi-inning dude with a great slider. They could probably upgrade his fastball a little bit.
29:12
Like, they're going to get through the early part of the season relying on that bullpen, because the starters just aren't going to be expected to work deep into games anyway.
29:20
But yeah, to your point, I mean, Bieber comes back mid-season, David Fry comes back. Chase DeLauter's gonna be up playing right field at some point.
29:27
Like, one of the things I think people don't think about as we go through these season win total markets is how a team will evolve throughout the course of the season, right?
29:36
Like, I, I had this problem with the Red Sox trying to figure out, where are they going to put Roman Anthony and Christian Campbell as the season goes along?
29:42
These guys that are gonna come up from the minor leagues and be potential impact players.
29:47
I don't know where they're gonna put them, but for, in Cleveland's case, they already have vacancies they can put those guys into essentially.
29:54
So to me, it's one of those things where you've gotta think about the full 162 with these win total and futures markets, and some of these teams are gonna get better.
30:02
Some of these teams are gonna get worse based on their contract situations and the kids coming up from the minor leagues. Yeah. I think it's a fair disagreement.
30:09
I think it's, uh, I think we can reach across the aisle, Adam, if you are, and agree that some of the things that you think are sustainable, I, I deem more unsustainable, but only time will tell.
30:17
So I think it's gonna be a pretty tight race between 14- So are we doing, are we... You wanna do 82 and a half, a dinner bet? Let's do it. There you go. Absolutely. All right. There. Dinner bet. Who decides where? Huh?
30:26
Yeah. All right. Uh, winner de- winner decides, right? Winner decides. [laughs] Okay. All right. Winner decides. That makes sense. All right. All right. I'll let you know. This is a [laughs] okay.
30:35
Um, this is a hard question to ask because you have so many opinions, but is there a, a favorite or a favorite-ish bet among all of them? Yeah, so I, I mentioned it already. I like the Royals under.
30:49
I, I think this Royals team, look, Bobby Witt Jr. is an elite level player. He carried that offense- Yes, he did... last season. Mm-hmm.
30:57
So FanGraphs has a stat that's basically batting and base running runs, and Kansas City was minus 21.2 batting and base running runs last season. Bobby Witt was plus 59.3 on his own.
31:11
That's how bad the rest of this offense was, and this was with an outlier season from Salvador Perez, who cut his strikeout rate down, increased his walk rate. A guy who's really never been patient at the plate.
31:22
He's a very free swinger type of dude. This offense is bad, and I think maybe Jonathan India helps a little bit just because he's a pretty consistent offensive player.
31:31
Maybe Vinny Pasquantino has that breakout season, but this offense is terrible outside of Bobby Witt, and Witt is a guy who had enormous home road splits last year. 466 weighted on base average, 202 WRC+ at home.
31:46
356 weighted on base average on the road, 134 WRC+. So he was 102% better than league average at home last season. So, like, it, it's just not something that I find sustainable, as good of a player as he is.
32:00
But for me, it's really the pitching side. So maybe Cole Reagan stays together, right? And I hope for the sake of baseball, for the sake of this division race, he does.
32:08
The two guys that I'm looking to fade in this rotation are Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. Lugo, big innings increase. Wacha, a guy who's always in the trainer's room for something or other.
32:18
They got a lot of production out of those two guys. 373 and a third innings. Eight wins combined above replacement player for just $31 million.
32:27
It was an incredible return on investment for John Sherman and that Royals team. I don't see it happening again.
32:34
You don't see career years out of pitchers in their mid-30s, and if you do, they end up regressing, and I think this Kansas City team is going to regress in a pretty big way.
32:43
I don't love the bullpen, even though they've got Urshela for the full season. They bring in Carlos Estevez as well. I think he's solid, but other than that, I don't think they have bullpen depth.
32:53
I don't think they have great starting pitching depth. The lineup, as I mentioned, is not deep, as, as I talked about already. I think this is the team in the Central that falls back, and I like them under 83 and a half.
33:03
It's probably my favorite season win total bet of them all. I agree with almost every word of that. I, I had a Lugo ticket for Cy Young, and I, and I still agree with the Lugo part.
33:11
The, uh, I just wanna say this before we get to the second segment with Adam, and we'll get more bets from him maybe on an individual side, but this is a, this is such a great sort of advertisement for these monthly wins bets that we made every month last year.
33:24
Uh, I had Cleveland the first couple months famously. It get, you get to know a team because you end up watching them in these short segments so intimately, and you get to know their strengths, their weaknesses.
33:33
I had the Royals a little later on, I think in August. That a- that outfield is still suspect. They, the, I just don't see it with the Royals. I'm with you. Adam Burke, more baseball.
33:43
It's a Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Edge Boost is the first ever bank account built for bettors, ensuring all gambling transactions are approved. No usage fees, no minimums. Earn cash back rewards. 100% approval for all betting deposits.
34:05
Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG. ANG as in A Numbers Game. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. Cognizant Classic, your guy Daniel Berger is a stroke back.
34:22
Yeah, one shot back, just, uh- Was that Nap is in first? Was in first? Yeah, yeah. Jake Nap won't go away. Jake Nap. They, they, they cut to him. Won't go away [laughs].
34:28
I, I might have distracted Adam Burke during the last segment.
34:30
Sorry, I had a li- I did a little bit of a fist pump 'cause, uh, Berger sunk a long birdie putt to tie the lead, and then it was cut right away to Jake Nap doing the same thing.
34:38
Helps to play that course 10,000 times, as you said. It really, really, really does. Oh, yeah. The, uh, uh, yeah, he, it is Nap at nine under, Berger eight under, Sam Ryder and Russell Henley seven under.
34:49
They are tearing up the champion course right now at PGA National, which is not a course, uh, that usually gets this many low scores. We get tweets at Betting The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody.
34:59
This is from, uh, Prime Time, Cowboys_Cups1. "Yo, dude. Hope your boy Blaze," Kelly Bidlin, "enjoyed that hit on Joint last night as much as I did.
35:08
Hopefully, Henley or Nap can get on a funny heater and bring the smoke today at the Honda. Let's go. Light it up." Hey- He's talking about Maya Joint, who, uh, won easily for us yesterday in tennis.
35:19
I wanna say six- Oh, really? I think it was six love, six-one, or six-one, six-two, something like that. Nice. Yeah. I do have a Michael Kim and Luke Clanton first round leader bet, so I will be sweating those here.
35:29
Kelly's like, "Forget your Maya Joint. Here's what I have coming up today." [laughs] Said, said those words. Um, Paul, by the way, we, we do have a tennis play coming up later.
35:36
By the way, a rare the line went against us tennis play. Ooh. Yeah. So you get a better number than I will coming up here on the show. Paul Zhang, "Zach and Crack are back, Jack." Yep, coming up.
35:46
Uh, the Crack part anyway. Jason H11, "You guys trying out for Thunder Down Under after the show? That's a lot of chess you, you two got going on today." I'm just gl- I'm just glad we did it on, on the same day.
35:55
Yeah, man. We didn't even plan it. Brian Shaffer, "Man, Gil, this whole time I was not hearing you right. It's Bill Krackemberger. I thought it was Krackenberger." Yeah, well, when you say it fast.
36:04
Trip Tepper: "Is the usage of Hawk Eye in football comparable to tennis? A tennis ball hits the court on every line call and has a binary result, in or out.
36:11
How can Hawk Eye spot a football that isn't momentarily static like a tennis ball hitting a court?" Trip, exactly right. I don't know how they're gonna do it.
36:19
Rich PSM, "Gil, the chip will accurately place the ball for first down location, but the refs still have to place it, and how the hell does that girl running in from the top of your TV know where the running back ended accurately?"
36:29
Couple things. First part is exactly what I said about the refs still having to place it. The second part, why's it gotta be the girl running in from the top of the screen?
36:36
Why can't it be one of the guy refs, uh, officials? Andy V... Um, oh, uh, Tyler Warren, a tight end from Penn State who's, uh, gonna be in this year's, uh, NFL draft, he referenced John Riggins as his favorite player.
36:48
That's why he wears 44. He's my new favorite player. Thank you, Andy V. Johnny Ringo, "Excellent choice for an agent for Adam Burke. Uh, me, the vacation time negotiated will be copious."
36:57
[laughs] And then Mark Goldberg, ch- uh, tweets in, "Can you please make mention to Adam that he already has an agent? It's me, unless he fired me and I was unaware and I have to take him out of the inheritance.
37:07
Great work with the baseball guide once again." I wonder if Adam's aware that he's in an inheritance there. Uh, James Sott, "I'm not happy I'm missing this, but will replay when I get home.
37:16
Uh, Adam Burke, tell Gil the guards are winning more than 82." Cheap prop bets. Making dinner bets on the Guardians and avoiding the vig, as only true bettors would do. Yeah. We'll get more of your tweets later.
37:26
Adam Burke kind enough to join us for a second segment @skatingtripods, once again courtesy of the Progressive guest line, and the author of our MLB betting guide, our MLB baseball betting guide.
37:37
Let's show that on screen. The Boys of Summer: Tips and Strategies on Betting Baseball, available now at vsin.com. Check it out.
37:45
Uh, Adam, a team that, uh, very few people are talking about and you have a very strong opinion on is?
37:53
Yeah, I just wanted to be cl- clear real quick about the MLB betting guide that, uh, all 30 team previews are up exclusively at vsin.com.
38:00
We didn't put them in the guide because we didn't wanna make the guide, you know, 100-plus pages.
38:04
Uh, but you can check out all the team previews over at vsin.com, and there are clickable links in this year's baseball betting guide to go and get redirected to the website.
38:13
So I just wanted to point that out there for everybody. The guide's got some of my futures stuff, uh, awards market stuff, things of that sort, which we may get to in a second.
38:21
But yeah, a team that people aren't talking about, although you told me that Paul Sporer's talking about them, and I, I definitely like being on the same side as somebody who I respect as much as Paul Sporer, that's the Washington Nationals.
38:31
I mean, I think this offense has a chance to be pretty good. They brought in a real professional hitter in Nathaniel Lowe. They brought in Josh Bell. I like both of those guys there. C.J.
38:41
Abrams had a bit of a breakout year last year. Dylan Crews, their top prospect, he's gonna be in the lineup likely from day one. Uh, Luis Garcés Jr. is a guy who took a big leap last year.
38:51
I think this offense is gonna be pretty decent, and the pitching staff, addition by subtraction, getting rid of Patrick Corbin.
38:58
I mean, Corbin, I give him a ton of credit for eating a bunch of innings last year, but he was objectively terrible, and now they bring in guys with some upside, right? They've got Mackenzie Gore.
39:08
Uh, DJ Hers is a guy who can miss bats. Mitchell Parker's been kind of a league average type of starter. They'll get Trevor Williams back.
39:14
We'll see what he's capable of, but he was throwing the ball real well before he got hurt.
39:19
The one thing I have a concern with with Washington, and this is a really important thing when you talk about season win total markets and betting overs, you wanna back bullpens that are gonna win the games they're supposed to win.
39:31
I don't know who's going to get high leverage outs for this team. I think they're gonna have to figure that out on the fly as they go.
39:37
But 72 and a half is a low number here for a team that I think is tremendously better on offense.
39:43
Guys, you know, last year Washington, they were actually 10th in terms of number of plate appearances with a runner in scoring position, despite being 27th in weighted on-base average with the bases empty.
39:54
So this is a team that I think should do better when nobody's on base, thus creating more run-scoring opportunities, maybe cashing those in a little bit more. I like this Nationals team over 72 and a half. Okay.
40:05
Um, they'll be happy to hear that in Washington in a, uh, in a division that, uh, they may not compete for the title, but at least a, uh, a bullish prospect for the Nationals.
40:14
What about individual, uh, any market, uh, whether it's an award, whether it's just a, uh, a prop bet in a certain c- offensive category, maybe pitching category? What do you got?
40:23
Yeah, so my favorite Cy Young pick for this year is Spencer Schwellenbach, and he's 40-1 at DraftKings still right now, the L- uh, the Atlanta right-hander.
40:34
I, I realize that, you know, Chris Sale won it last year and, and obviously, you know, you run into a situation where Spencer Strider is coming back, but Schwellenbach is a guy, young arm.
40:43
I'm not worried about the workload increase. He threw a- almost 170 innings last year, so bumping up a little bit more is not going to be a big issue for him.
40:51
There are a few benchmarks you need to reach in terms of winning this award. You gotta throw at least 170 innings. You gotta have 200 strikeouts. Helps to be on a good team because you're gonna get wins.
41:00
ERA is a really important factor as well. And for Schwellenbach, the biggest thing for me is his pitch efficiency.
41:07
He'll strike out a lot of guys, and he'll do it in pretty compact fashion, three, four, five-pitch strikeouts, stuff like that. He doesn't walk anybody. He's a guy with a walk rate under 5% last year.
41:17
In the second half, bumped his strikeout rate to 27 and a half percent as he kinda learned the league, sorta learned his way through all the hitters and all of that. Atlanta pitching factory, good offense.
41:28
He's gonna get some run support. I think Schwellenbach at 40 to 1. If nothing else, I think this price continues to drop as we go throughout the season, so you end up getting some built-in equity with that.
41:38
But I think at 40 to 1, a guy who's gonna throw 180 innings with over 200 strikeouts and a good offense and a good bullpen, I think he's very, very live to win the award. I like it.
41:48
Um, what about if I ask you the question that I ask I think every year around this time, which is give me a team that you feel, and this is obviously, you know, the case in every sport, but in baseball it's, it's particularly interesting over 162 games, um, and the, and the current playoff format, a team that can slip into a postseason, either AL or NL, that you think is just good enough, might be a buyer at the deadline, that could be worth some kind of futures play?
42:16
Uh, look, I mean, it's, it's really difficult, right? Because the National League is super top-heavy.
42:22
I mean, if, if the NL representative in the World Series is anybody other than the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, or Mets, I'll be stunned. That being said- [laughs]... I like this team on an annual basis.
42:34
I, I think the Brewers at, at 50 to 1 are worth a look. Ooh. Right? If they win the Central Division, they're gonna get at least one home playoff series.
42:41
They certainly have a chance to win that, and then, you know, we'll see what happens. I mean, it's a tournament of variance, right? I mean, the- Yeah...
42:46
the best teams usually win, but it's still a tournament of variance. I think Jackson Churio's kind of a dark horse MVP guy as well at 35 to 1. Um, I mean, he had a phenomenal second half.
42:57
I- if he carries that second half through the full season, he's gonna finish in the top five in MVP voting. If Christian Yelich is healthy, you know, that's definitely gonna elevate the profile of this offense.
43:06
But I like some of the moves they've made kind of retooling on the fly. They're a very athletic team. They're a contact-oriented team. They're a good defensive team.
43:14
I know they're missing Willy Adames, but they'll find the power somewhere else. The starting staff is obviously the question every year for them, but the bullpen should be good.
43:23
And honestly, the Cubs don't impress me that much. Uh, the Reds are kind of a high variance, you know, wide range of outcomes type of team. The Pirates don't e- really have the offense yet.
43:33
I think the Brewers have a very good shot at winning that division, and at 50 to 1, getting them into the playoffs with a home playoff series and a chance to maybe do some damage, I think that's a pretty good investment.
43:43
I love it. Adam, uh, always a pleasure. I hope we can talk baseball all season long, uh, obviously Guardians and beyond. VSiN.com/subscribe. Again, uh, become a VSiN Pro subscriber for as low as 9.99.
43:55
You get your copy of the MLB betting guide today. Uh, we say this every betting guide.
44:00
You are pretty much sort of the, uh, the guy who sort of spearheads it, but this one is a, uh, almost a solo work, with apologies to Jensen, who did his piece. So kudos to you again, man. Great job. No, I appreciate it.
44:12
And look, I gotta say this real quick, that month for 9.99, do it, 'cause we're writing all 31 conference tournament previews, plus our March Madness guide March 18th. Beautiful. Well said.
44:22
Adam Burke, everybody, @skatingtripods. Thank you, Adam. Appreciate it, man. Have a good one, guys. You too. Bill Krackenberger. That's how you pronounce it.
44:30
He's next right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
