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Feb 28, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 28, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 28, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. My name is Gil Alexander. This is radio's Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
0:22
Loser of 68 American pounds. [laughs] As opposed to? Very quickly is what I mean. [laughs] Um, how you doing, man? You good? I'm great. I'm great. I've probably lost 68 English pounds too, betting things. I, I think.
0:37
Eh, trying to help you out. Trying to help you out. There you go. Um- I'm doing great, man. It's Friday, crew's doing great... Friday, uh, crew's doing great.
0:43
We're always doing great on Friday because it's not a football Friday, but it's Friday nonetheless, and Steve Fezzik and Chris Felica will be joining us hour number two.
0:53
Uh, Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the, uh, Hilton Super Contest back in the day. Felica for Fox Sports. Uh, Fezzik's got all kinds of topics he wants to talk about.
1:01
A lot of stuff reviewing what we've done on the show here in the last couple days also, so he wants to follow up on a whole bunch of stuff.
1:07
The guy who forfeited his slot, uh, jackpot, uh, parlays, um, what else is there? Oh, there's a bunch of stuff. We'll get to all that. A, a lot of good stuff. Yeah.
1:16
There, there is no doubt that the, the crack Thursdays and, and, and Fezzik Fridays have become a little bit of like the political back and forth.
1:23
Like, like I make a, I make a statement, and then I need to, uh, follow up on that statement on Friday. The Fezzik follow-up. Oh, wait, point, counterpoint kind of a thing. Yeah, point, counterpoint sort of thing.
1:32
Yeah, I was, yeah, absolutely. Yeah, yeah. You said, "I," so I was like, I don't know, you, you said something specifically that he wants to- No, no. Oh, okay. Yeah, no, no. I was just wondering.
1:38
Um, Jason Weingart will be here as well. Jason's got a couple things that are...
1:42
You know, Jason's a funny guy because when he texts me, I can always learn what's, what's sort of annoying him, that's annoying at him, and it's always something random.
1:50
One, he thinks the Rams are acting like a, like a B when it comes to Matthew Stafford, and he's just r- he's just ranting about that all day long. So weird.
1:58
And he doesn't feel like, uh, Travis Hunter has any idea what he's gonna be, has any idea about playing two sides of the ball.
2:04
Like, there's really strange things that Jason is really, um, just randomly, it's not strange, but randomly, uh, upsetting to him at, at this point. I, uh, the, the, okay, well the, I, you know what?
2:13
Both of those football situations are upsetting me too 'cause, uh- Yeah... we do, we do have reports this morning, uh, Rams set to meet with Matthew Stafford in person today to talk, to discuss future.
2:23
Raiders and Giants have discussed two-year contracts already for Stafford that include 90 to $100 million guaranteed. That is from Dianne Russini. There's that.
2:32
[laughs] The Travis Hunter thing I texted you about, every report I'm get- I'm seeing out of the combine keeps changes, changing the number of teams that are looking at him at wide receiver or cornerback.
2:42
He's, he's not playing both wa- he wants to play every snap. He's not playing both ways every, every down.
2:46
And then, like one of the interviews I saw with him yesterday, he seemed very dejected or upset about like even the idea of him not playing both sides. Or, or are you trying to kill yourself? What are you trying to do?
2:58
I know. I know. I know. Um, anyway, that's the Jason segment. We almost had it ourselves just there. Uh, are we sure coming up? A whole bunch of good stuff on the show today.
3:05
Um, but I wanna start with tennis plays 'cause, uh, we're waiting till the end with the, uh, the GBank Best Bets at the end of the show here, you know, throughout the week. Uh, we're on a, uh, heater.
3:15
Uh, this is our ki- our kind of time of year when this happens, this, uh, hard court season. We have hards with a little clay sprinkled in.
3:23
Um, I made a play that's already, that's, that's too far gone now, which was before the semifinals of Dubai. I made a play on Felix Auger-Aliassime at plus 110. I hope subscribers got that.
3:34
He's up a break in the, uh, in the third set against Khachanov. But that's, by the way, why it pays to be a subscriber also, because you get the best of the lines typically.
3:43
Also at vsin.com/picks, every host, every guest, every sport, all their plays, they're at vsin.com/picks for subscribers. But when the tours are on the North American side, I can give them to you on the show as well.
3:55
Uh, after our hit on Korea again yesterday, Maya Joint is the play today versus Elena Apandesyan. Maya Joint, the 18-year-old Australian. This is a very, this was a lot of line movement, um, yesterday.
4:10
This was a, you know, I, I had isolated Joint, but the line was -139 when I first saw it. I was like, "It's a little too high." Mm. Next time I looked, it was -145, and the next time I looked, it was -170-something.
4:22
I'm like, "Ah, well, I can't play this. This is ridiculously out of whack." Then the next time I looked curiously, it was -150 something, and then I waited an hour and a half. This was like later.
4:31
I was, I was prepared to not have a play today, and then I see her at -119 against Apandesyan, who's a very scrappy player, who is, uh, willing to play points for as long as it takes, by the way.
4:42
She's very annoying that way. Really? Um, but Maya Joint is the play at -119, her numbers on the hard courts of Merida. Cowboys prime time, you get another chance to, uh, fire up another Joint bet.
4:53
Uh, the Laslo Djere pick is like the Auger-Aliassime as a futures play, or as the Westgate calls it, something else. But, uh, in Djere's case here, he's a Serbian player.
5:03
He's got outstanding clay numbers, and they're playing in Santiago, Chile. He plays his quarterfinal match. So while the Auger-Aliassime one was before the semis, this one's before the quarters, plus 330.
5:14
Uh, his clay numbers are, this is sort of where, where the data comes to p- to the, to the fore because a lot of the other names that are still alive in Santiago,
5:25
Sebastian Baez, Francisco Cerundolo, those are more known clay court specialists, but Djere's numbers trump theirs, so plus 330 to win in Santiago.
5:35
Um, last night in the National Basketball Association, did you see the Steph show? Oh boy, did I.
5:43
56 for Steph against the Orlando Magic as the Warriors cover in the end, uh, just barely, but they do so with six point, a six-point win on the road at Orlando.
5:54
Steph loves historically playing on Orlan- a- at Orlando, and he loves playing on February 27th, we all learned last night as well.
6:00
But the Warriors win it 121 to 115, which brings their record since the Jimmy Butler trade, not that he had a good offensive night last night, 'cause he didn't, but since the Butler trade, the Warriors go to seven and one now.
6:13
And, uh, Steph, just to sort of give you the historical on, the historicals on Steph last night, just to be thorough because I'm, if nothing else, a Warriors nerd, uh, seven to one ATS by the way in that seven to one run as well.
6:24
And look at those numbers on the left side of the screen. Um, third in net rating. You see the ratings on offense and defense, the efficiency numbers.
6:32
Also the Lakers there, which we'll get to since acquiring Luka Dončić, their numbers, they had a win last night as well.
6:38
But on the Warriors side, again back to Steph, 56 last night, 12 three-pointers, including one v- at the end of the first half from a step or two above the, uh, in front of the arc on the other side of the court.
6:50
So beyond half court by a bit. Um, but 12 three-pointers. Curry had 22 points in the third quarter. He outscored Orlando 22 to 21 in that frame alone, which turned a 14-point Warriors deficit into a five-point lead.
7:03
And then with Curry on the bench to begin the fourth quarter, the Warriors held the Magic scoreless for the first 3:08, uh, stretching a five-point lead to 12.
7:10
Banchero by the way scored 41 for the, uh, Magic- Yeah [laughs]... and nobody noticed. Yeah [laughs] nobody brings it up, yeah. Um, but for Steph, most 50-point games after the age of 30, nine.
7:19
Most 50-point games after the age of 35, three. He ties Rick Barry with his 14th 50-point game, second all-time on the Warriors, seventh most in NBA history.
7:29
By the way, Wilt has like 118 of 'em, it should be pointed out, something like that. [laughs] That's every NBA record, right? Yeah, but that one in particular, like yeah, 118 he has with those.
7:39
Uh, and then the most games, th- this, he had 12 threes. He now has, Steph does, the most games with 11 plus threes in NBA history, 14 of them. And the most games with 10 plus threes in NBA history, 26 of them.
7:51
That's the most all time. And, um, let me just say this. Klay has the most in a game. He has 14 made threes in a game. That's the record. So he has one game of 14, two of 12, and two of 11.
8:04
Steph has one of 13, now two of 12, and 11 of 11. [laughs] It's just- That's wild... just insane. That's a great stat. It's insane. That's a great stat.
8:14
Um- I, I, you know what, uh, what's also kind of funny is the, I'm sure that 14 i, i- is under Steph's skin a little bit. You know what I mean? Like I'm sure he thinks about that every once in a while.
8:23
Oh, I'm sure he does. Like, "I'd love to match Klay," right? Absolutely. Or, or, you know, or get beyond it.
8:27
I just, I, while this was happening, now from a betting standpoint, as you, as we throw up the Warriors and the Lakers since their big trades, the Warriors was a five ch- five-teamer to be technical. Yeah.
8:37
The Lakers was a three-teamer with Utah. I don't know, man. I, the Warriors have a lot to be excited about. They are in the midst of a 14-game stretch where 12 of them are on the road, Kelly.
8:50
And they've gotten through the heart of that now with this big record. And the last four games on the road, three of them are against, let's see. Sh- uh, let's see if I have this right.
9:02
Three of them are against Philly, Charlotte, and Brooklyn. So they're gonna get through this thing one would imagine pretty, pretty solidly.
9:09
And if you look at remaining strength of schedule in the National Basketball Association, the Warriors have the third easiest remaining schedule of Western Conference teams.
9:21
Only Minnesota and Dallas have easier schedules than the Warriors do in the Western Conference.
9:28
Meanwhile, the Lakers are, uh, have the fourth hardest schedule left in the NBA, and really there's five Western Conference teams that have the hardest in terms of the aggregate opponent win percentage.
9:40
Phoenix, Sacramento, Denver, Lakers, Clippers have the five hardest remaining schedules- Mm-hmm... in the NBA. So a lot in the Warriors' favor. And of course they're getting back Jonathan Kuminga at some point.
9:51
So I say to you, sir, a bet, because I'm really thinking about it, on the Warriors to win the West. I'm not gonna say to win it all, because I don't wanna get that far and not cash.
10:01
So to win the West, they're about nine to one, ten to one, somewhere in that pocket. Yeah, I can't bl- I can't blame anybody wanting to make a Warriors or Lakers bet right now. I get it. Like, I get it.
10:11
I think the, I think, uh, the difference y- you pointed out, the strength of schedule remaining for Lakers and Warriors, I think that's a big difference. It would definitely be a lean.
10:20
Uh, like we would have this c- discussion three days ago, Gil, I would'a, I would'a said Warriors, Lakers, both of 'em I'm not so sure, I'm not sure about, right?
10:28
We've gotten to the point now where I think they're still the two biggest wild cards in the Western Conference playoffs. I think they are.
10:35
Um, but I think the Warriors have started to separate themselves even a little bit from where the Lakers are at. The Lakers are- I do... uh, some of it's a little smoke and mirrors to me.
10:44
I think, uh, you've heard a lot of this, J.J.
10:46
Redick, a lot of credit to him for what the defense has done and what they've been able to do with the lack of size that they have on the team on this current version of the roster.
10:54
Third-best defensive rating since they acquired Luka Dončić. It's very impressive. Luka has not shot well since he's gotten there, so you would expect that to get better.
11:03
But, uh, they can't keep up this level of defense in my opinion with how this roster's built out. W- like you said with the Warriors, you're getting Kuminga back.
11:12
You're gonna see what this team looks like at full strength finally for the first time this season with Jimmy Butler on the roster.
11:18
Um, between Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green, these guys can cause absolute havoc for some teams on the defensive side of the ball in the playoffs. I, they're a major, major wild card.
11:28
I still like the Thunder to win the West, but after them, Gil, there's no reason that the Warriors can't be the next team. They end up with a six seed, which is very possible. Maybe they match up against Houston.
11:37
Really you want that- Mm-hmm... young team to play against those guys? No, not at all. I like Warriors in that matchup. And Jimmy Butler's probably the second or third best teammate behind Durant that Curry has ever had.
11:47
I love it. Are We Sure next on A Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Do you wanna bet smarter? I know you do. Start with smarter insights.
12:04
Right now you can check out articles like all 30 MLB team previews from Adam Burke. Man, what an e- what an exhaustive enterprise We just, not even, we just went, say it in one sentence, it doesn't give it enough credit.
12:17
30 MLB team previews from Adam Burke. Greg Peterson's best bets in college hoops. Brian Ortega with his final Oscars predictions, and later today you can check out- I don't think so...
12:25
Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Josh Applebaum's college basketball sharp report, and Steve Mackinnon's NBA analytics report. All of that at vsin.com.
12:33
To get access to all the articles right now, you can sign up for as little as $9.99. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Today. We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the, uh, feedback.
12:46
Uh, Darren Narotam, we will, uh, we will address all the parlay stuff with, uh, Steve Fezzik a little later on.
12:52
He was talking, it's, it's fascinating when you do a segment on parlays, just by the way, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Um,
12:58
it's so funny, when you, whenever you do a parlays segment, you have the contingent of folks who are like, "You don't know what you're talking about. I make so much money doing parlays."
13:06
And it's like, I even offered if they had listened to the clip, right? You know- Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah... they just see the headlines, they don't listen.
13:11
I even offered at the end, I was like, "Yeah, but in tennis I kind of do it too, and sometimes it works out very well."
13:16
Like, so, so there's that crowd that's like, "You don't know what you're talking about, parlay's the greatest thing in the world."
13:19
But then you have people like Darren who was, who were much more measured, who said, "I agree with you guys that playing parlays leads you down a path of despair longterm.
13:26
However, I think that one can be profitable using two leg parlays to manipulate the vig in certain cases, getting plus money pricing. I do this a lot with college basketball. Thoughts?" I won't address that now.
13:37
We will with Steve in terms of how people misplay two leg parlays. How about that for a tease? Yeah, that's good. Okay. Um- And there's plenty of good ways to use parlays. Like, there, there's plenty.
13:48
It's just the, what we're seeing the most out of the general public betting is irresponsible parlay betting. Yes, correct. It's the way I would put it.
13:57
But you, there's, there's always gonna be a contingent on Twitter that just can't have that measured reaction.
14:01
They've gotta tell you how much they w- There's a guy who put out a graph of his winnings on parlays in the last seven days, that he was going crazy about. I'm like, "Yeah, okay, that's great.
14:09
Congratulations on your seven-day run." Well, and even like, even if it's longer than that, like great for you. Right. If it works for you, great. Great. We're just trying to send what the general- Exactly...
14:18
masses message is out there. Thank you very much. Rick Ollier, in my spreadsheet voice, "Did you just say joint is too high?" [laughs] She was yesterday. Yeah. Uh, Jeremy Burnitz, rando baseball player of the day.
14:28
[laughs] Keep betting her. We're gonna have some fun with that one, Gil. [laughs] Uh, Jeff G., "Fifth year in a row it didn't make it."
14:34
Oh, they were trying to put, uh, sports betting and casino gambling on the ballot in Georgia, and he says, "Fifth year in a row it did not make it in Georgia, but make sure you buy them lotto scratch-offs and Mega Millions tickets."
14:44
He's not happy about that. Uh, Sky High, uh, "Kelly is down 68 American pounds, 4.86 English stones." [laughs] That's correct. Yeah, yeah. 4.86 English stones. Stones, um, how many pounds? That sounds even better.
14:57
20 pounds per stone, I believe, is what he's saying? Okay. Yeah. Um, or maybe, maybe it's 14, something like that? Yeah, something like that. Yeah, I had no idea. Um, I think it's 14.
15:07
Wise Guys Wager in the, they always talk about parlays as well. Anyway, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the feedback.
15:12
Um, Jeff Cam wondering about the VSiN Watch app, where he's trying to get it, uh, right now, so he's listening on iHeart.
15:17
And, uh, then the, uh, the, the picks page, there's something about, uh, are we not putting the tennis futures plays?
15:24
Because I don't usually do the futures plays on the picks page, but can we get the tennis futures on there? I feel like, I feel like the picks page is rigged in favor of the golf bettors over the tennis bettors.
15:34
Oh, we've heard that before. Yeah. Yeah, we've heard that before. Yeah. Well, it's true. I don't know what's missing, but we'll make sure and get it solved. You know, well, you know why?
15:39
'Cause golf also is a four-day event, and so if you hit a tennis one, it just falls off. [laughs] Right. 'Cause it's a week or two an event. That's true, that's true. [laughs] It's all rigged for the golf bettors.
15:47
That's true. [laughs] Um, all right, you ready for Are We Sure? I think, uh, I think Bill got an email I saw in the newsletter, right?
15:53
He was, uh, an email of someone complaining about how, how the f- like the three, I, I think it was the week probably that Matt and I hit Ludwig, where it was like, how could the three best handicappers [laughs] at VSiN have losing records?
16:04
Oh, you guys were like one in, someone was one in nine in the other. Yeah, that's off, that, that is a lot of my golf week sometimes, I mean, yeah. Boy, oh, boy are those golfers. Look at these guys.
16:12
All right, Are We Sure? Estamos seguros. Can I finish one last, can I, can I go mini rant on Lakers real quick? Oh, please, yes, absolutely. Everybody in the media, this is for you.
16:20
If, when you start talking about Lakers stats and how good they've been recently, stop including any of the ones that included Anthony Davis.
16:27
Like, we cannot point out how good the Lakers defense has been when the team has completely changed. Seismic change in the roster. It's driving me insane, Gil, sorry. This has been Kelly Bidlin blows a gasket.
16:39
I, it's, it's, it's driving me nuts. Okay.
16:41
Well, but, but, but the, but the main point about that, though, getting back to what we were just saying is, you said it off air, which I think is the way, is the best way to concisely say it.
16:49
Besides the Thunder, can you make a clear case for any team being the second-best team in the Western Conference? Like, beyond a shadow of a doubt. And the answer to me is no, you can't. Yeah.
16:58
Uh, two through eight are very bunched, and that's where, like when you're talking about betting the Warriors or something, I would rather bet on the, I'd rather bet on the upside of what I think the Lakers or, or the Warriors could be, Gil, than what the Rockets or Timberwolves probably could be.
17:14
Yeah. All right. And they're in those eight. Are we sure? All right, are we sure? We've got a lot of, a lot of sports in here. I'm gonna go to the NFL rule changes from yesterday, yesterday, okay? Mm-hmm.
17:22
Are we sure the rule changes the NFL makes this off-season will put all of our complaining to rest? Are you crazy? No, we're not sure. No. How else, what else, what are we gonna talk about Monday mornings?
17:32
We're gonna complain about all this stuff. We go to the opposite side. I was complaining yesterday and it hadn't even happened yet.
17:36
Yeah, I'm, I'm sure that whatever they change, I'm still gonna complain about some of the changes they make. Absolutely. All right. Are we sure Cam Ward will be the first quarterback selected in the NFL draft?
17:47
You know what? I'm not. I'm not 100% sure. I'm mostly sure, but I'm not 100% sure. Because someone could, we just learned Dallas was talking to Tennessee, trying to trade up. You know who they were gonna pick, right?
17:59
Shedeur would be my assumption. You know what they say about assuming, though. But I'm just saying, there's a lot that can happen between now and the, and the end of April draft.
18:07
I think some of the conversations coming out of the combine have been very fascinating with, like, the Travis Hunter one that I keep hearing b- like, different things about which position, and then Shedeur Sanders Like, it is, I feel like I'm hearing some, some teams higher on him than I thought, like you just said, and then some teams that he seems to be, like, plummeting down their draft board.
18:26
This is the ultimate example of we, we always say we get it. Why do teams go quarterback crazy in the first round of an NFL draft? Because you're nothing without a quarterback. Yep. Right?
18:34
Uh, Washington is the greatest example. They, they hadn't had a quarterback for decades. All of a sudden one shows up and then the r- the entire fate of the franchise has changed.
18:43
Obviously it's not that simple, but you get the idea. You, you are nothing without one, so you've gotta... You, you do go quarterback crazy if you're one of the also-rans in the NFL.
18:51
I get it, but there is no guarantee any of these guys are actually going to be good at the NFL level, and I don't know if Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders are gonna be any good.
19:00
Some people say Jaxson Dart's just as good as both of them. Mm-hmm. Projecting. So I don't know. No, I d- I'm not 100% sure it'll be Cam Ward in the end. It's- Even though right now he's minus 155 to go first.
19:11
I know Matt Brown already has, "I think I might be getting involved with a Jaxson Dart bet at some point." I mentioned it the other day. Yeah, you did. Yep. You did.
19:18
I, I think it's, I think it's more likely than the odds indicate at least. All right, are we sure Will Levis sees the field next season? No, I'm not. [laughs] Because you know what?
19:28
If, if cooler heads were prevailing, he shouldn't probably see the field. Because he's, uh, we've seen enough, right? Yeah. He's not great at football. Probably. Or you know what?
19:38
I think he's a guy that could probably get some run, but it needs to be somewhere else, and it needs to be as a backup situation. That's right. Like, it's- Otherwise he's just ill-advised Billy Leviss. Yeah, yeah.
19:48
All right, are we sure Aaron Rodgers will be in the NFL next season? Oh, man. I'm kind of getting sure about it. I don't wanna be sure about it, but if Matthew Stafford is gone,
20:00
it l- doesn't it feel like Aaron Rodgers is like, okay, the Rams are sort of... And I don't know how this meeting supposedly- Yeah...
20:06
is gonna go with Stafford today, but it feels like the Rams are in the mode of, "Well, all right.
20:11
We don't wanna pay Matthew Stafford this, but if we can get Aaron Rodgers for half the price, and we still got these receivers," they won't have Kupp, but they'll have Mcúa, right? And they still got good backs.
20:21
Ah, I think he plays. I think I'm 100%... I'm closer to 100% sure on that than I am on anything, sadly. Yeah. It's the m- I think it's very limited teams that, like, it makes sense for, but the Rams are one of them.
20:34
Yeah. And if this Stafford situation continues, I'm with you. I think that Ro- Rodgers has a chance.
20:38
'Cause the Rams know they're not as good without w- f- the trade, quote, unquote, of Stafford giving way to Rodgers, they know they're not as good. Yeah, yeah. But it's a, it's a financial thing.
20:47
God, I would love to see, uh, Stafford go back in Detroit.
20:50
Like, that's my favorite idea out there, of just like they do the Goff, uh, Stafford trade all over again, and there's b- boom, then you get the quarterback, you're good to go.
20:58
Okay, are we sure Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win the MVP? Oh, man, I'm not 100% sure, because I think Jokić deserves consideration. It's his best season ever. I'm close to 100% sure that it's gonna- Wow...
21:14
that it's gonna be SGA. I was not expecting that. Okay. I'm close to it, because I don't think these... 'Cause I don't trust these NBA voters to do the right thing. By the way, it's not the, uh... SGA is awesome.
21:23
It's not the worst thing in the world, just makes no sense that Jokić wouldn't get it. I know. I know. He, he, uh, SGA has one of, one of the more in- more incredible MVP cases that we've seen in a long time.
21:35
However- Yeah...
21:35
[laughs] however- It's like, it's like I said the other day when we were talking about it w- when we were going over Montasano's numbers, they're gonna give SGA the MVP just 'cause they're tired of doing it for Jokić, and so then they won't give Defensive Player of the Year to SGA when really- Right...
21:48
his numbers suggest he should win that. Instead, they're gonna give it to these guys that have be- the same or worse defensive numbers than they've had in previous years. But guess what?
21:57
If they, if somehow Jokić does go MVP, enough people are gonna figure out a way- Right... to make those SGA Defensive Player of the Year numbers work- Yeah... that he actually is live in that market.
22:05
Um, okay, are we sure Kenny Atkinson has done a more impressive coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers than the second shot on the Coach of the Year board, JB Bickerstaff, has done with the Pistons?
22:16
No, it's a great question. We're not sure of that, but Kenny Atkinson had so much buzz about him for so many years to become a head coach that people view it that way.
22:25
Okay, really quick, are we sure, uh, enough has happened in a week for Ja Morant to move to a minus 240 favorite?
22:30
[laughs] No, but I made the case the other day, he is the best player on the best team in the best conference in college basketball, so he probably should be the favorite. But I don't want that big of a favorite.
22:38
Keep it in the fairway, Lowry. Goodbye. [laughs] Denozial, Aliah Sim win yet? We'll check all that out. Coming back, Weingarten, Fezzik, Felika, and more. It's a numbers game at VSiN.
22:49
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23:14
That's edgeboost.bet. Let's go, Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the feedback. This is from JasonH11, who says, "It's amazing how many shades of red that Kelly turns when he's ranting.
23:27
I think we need to create a scale." Uh, Mikey- Yep... can we get a claw machine update from Jason? Yes, we will get that momentarily.
23:35
And then Brandon Webb, I don't believe it's the former major leaguer Brandon Webb, but it's Brandon Webb nonetheless. Probably is. Are we...
23:40
Talking about the, uh, the quarterbacks in this year's NFL draft at the top, he says, "Are we sure that Joe Milton isn't better than any draft prospect available this year?" I'm with you, man. I'm totally with you.
23:50
By the way, Joe Milton can throw a football longer than any human being I've ever seen. I don't know if he has any idea where it's going, but he can sh- what a cannon for Joe Milton. Um, I'm with you, man.
24:03
I'm not sure about that. Uh, Abe Brown down in Jungle Eight said, "Nothing is more infuriating than making no-brainer bets on awards markets only to have asinine justification/narratives drive actual outcomes.
24:14
Like many, I've been burned on Hamlin Comeback Player of the Year, Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year, and again this year will be on Jokić MVP and SGA Defensive [laughs] Player of the Year at 60 to 1."
24:24
[laughs] That's right[laughs] Oh, man. The be- the best is we all can't stop betting them though because we th- we, we think we're right, and there's nothing better than the payoff when you're right.
24:35
Well, a- and I love Michael Bonasano, and I hope Michael's listening, and I, and I mean this with love. He is so passionate about it, so passionate about it,
24:44
that, um, when he asked me, he said, "I was on with, with you, and with, uh, Kelly and Joe when you were out." Mm. He says, "Can you watch this?" He's like, "Watch the segment," and I watched the segment, and he [laughs]
24:55
was frothing at the mouth at h- how excited he was and how, how passionate is he, he is about his numbers. And I worry that he's gonna spiral into drugs, depression, and alcohol- [laughs]...
25:02
when it doesn't work out his way. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. That's our worry. Yeah. Jamie Leva, "Golf getting preferential treatment over tennis at the country club.
25:09
I feel like we need a country club in confrontation similar to the Anchorman news team skirmish. Have a fantastic weekend, gentlemen." What does that mean? Is there golf first in the, in the open or something?
25:18
No, no, no, he's, uh, he was talking about how I was saying there's pref- I was saying there's preferential treatment on the picks page. Oh, oh, oh. Yeah. Got it. Were you here earlier? Got it. Yeah.
25:26
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, are we sure Steve Fezek isn't a cyborg?" We are not sure. He's a robot. Has a robot brain. But it's always interesting when it comes to numbers and betting. The hair's robotic. It's always perfect.
25:38
Yeah. [laughs] Always perfect. Always perfect. Uh, oh, speaking of perfect hair, ladies and gentlemen, comes to us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:45
You can follow him on Twitter at Spreadapedia, and he's got a couple things stuck in his craw. It's Jason Weingarten, everybody. How you doing, man? Pretty good. Uh, watching South African Open this morning.
25:56
It's, uh, always nice to get some morning golf on. Yeah. Nothing to complain about today. How's the, how's the Cactus League stuff going for you on AM radio?
26:04
Now all of us have you pictured just in a car driving around town with your AM radio working. It, it's good. I actually was doing that yesterday.
26:11
I almost took a picture for you to show you, um, me driving around with the AM radio on. But, uh, Dodgers game, it was, like, scoreless for, like, six innings yesterday, so I lost some, uh, some interest in that.
26:23
Although, um, one thing to point out with the Cactus League stuff, with the Dodgers and the Cubs, uh, starting the season, like, what, three weeks from now, approximately on the 17th.
26:35
Actually, it's probably shorter than three weeks from now. Their, uh, their pitchers are all accelerated. They're already throwing pitch- pitches. You know, their starters are up 50 pitches.
26:44
So next time through the rotation, you should expect Dodgers and the Cubs starters to basically get full workloads. Yeah, 'cause the Dodgers and Cubs, for those who don't know what Jason's talking about, play those...
26:54
Major League Baseball has done this for a long time now.
26:56
I, we remember when, we're old enough to remember when it fir- when they first started doing this wacky thing where a couple teams would play a couple games before the rest of the schedule, uh, actually started, um, as a, as a way to globalize the game of baseball, as if baseball needed globalization.
27:10
It already does have that. Um, okay, there's a couple things I was mentioning earlier that are bothering you, I hope you don't mind me mentioning.
27:16
One of which is the way the Rams are handling the Matthew Stafford situation. Why does this upset you so much?
27:23
Well, it sounds like there's gonna be some resolution either today or this weekend, but the whole process, the Rams want Stafford back, but they don't really want him back, and they also, they, th- there's a cap room situation.
27:35
They have about $41 million in cap room. He wants 50. So, um, they're gonna have to make some moves to get under the cap if they want him back.
27:43
But all the words that McVay and everyone's using, like, this does not sound like a situation where the Rams want Matt Stafford back.
27:52
And even if he comes back at this point, you know, you've spent the last month telling him, "Hey, we'd rather somebody else pay you all the money. Uh, we, we're not bringing back Cooper Kupp.
28:03
We're, we're, you know, we're not doing all these things you want." Um, I just don't really see it as a viable situation for him to come back. I don't think either side is fully on board with the other at this point.
28:15
Yeah, um, you're right. We could see some resolution today, and, uh, rumors are, again, if you believe reports, that, uh, that both the Raiders and the Giants perhaps have a deal in the works already for Stafford.
28:26
So could be resolved as early as today. We shall see. The other one that I mentioned that was bothering you is this whole Travis Hunter thing. What, what is stuck in your craw about that?
28:37
So Travis Hunter, I think he'll be a top pick. I think he's gonna play at least one way in the NFL. I don't know if he's a wide receiver or a defensive back.
28:46
But I think the idea that he's gonna, day one, be a cornerback and a wide receiver is, is absolutely comical. Um, if he's getting that advice, it's bad advice from the people giving it to him.
28:58
Um, just, you know, for one thing, he's gonna be on a rookie contract. Playing both ways on a rookie contract like that would be insane. But, uh, I, I just don't physically think
29:09
Hunter or anybody's gonna play, you know, upwards of, of, uh, you know, close to, to full starter snaps on both sides of the ball in the NFL.
29:17
And like I mentioned to you, uh, people always bring the comparison up to Deion Sanders.
29:22
But, you know, the reality is Deion Sanders had something like 15 targets in his career for the first five years and only became a two-way player when he joined the Cowboys five, six years into his career after he'd already won Defensive Player of the Year, after he'd already won a Super Bowl, when he was the highest paid player in the league.
29:41
Um, you know, that's when he started playing both ways. And even then, his best year, if you look at, like, 1995, I think he got, like, 67 targets.
29:50
Um, and again, it, playing both ways, you're playing on a Super Bowl team.
29:54
Not saying that Deion Sanders wasn't a contributor or he didn't play great, but, uh, the expectations people have that Hunter is gonna, you know, get 100 targets and line up at cornerback is just, uh, preposterous, I think is, is the right word.
30:09
Uh, you know, you, you gotta at least have expectations and, and a reasonable sort of strategy here. And I, I think You know, some of the things we're, we're hearing about Travis are just, just not, not realistic.
30:22
I, I think you're 100% right, and for those of us who lived through Deion Sanders' professional playing career, not to mention his college one, but, but in, as his pro career, we don't think of him ne- necessarily as a two-way player, right?
30:33
He was, like, this great kick returner sl- you know, punt returner/cornerback, and, like, we get that he played offense, but it's almost like a footnote that he played offense.
30:43
And we, we don't think of him as a two-way offensive- [laughs]... defensive player. So y- 100% on that.
30:49
And by the way, and then later in his career just stole money from Dan Snyder, so there was a, there was- [laughs]... a whole arc to his career. But yeah, I'm, I'm totally with you on that.
30:55
The, and the best point you make is the rookie contract thing. If you are Travis Hunter's- Yeah...
30:59
agent or friend, the very first thing you say is, "Bro, if you wanna do this, don't do it when you haven't made the big money yet. Like, relax with that for four years." Yeah.
31:10
So I, I, I just think, you know, when you hear a lot of this stuff being said this week at the Combine, you gotta, gotta take a lot of it with a grain of salt. There's just so much
31:19
stuff being said out there that just has no bearing on reality.
31:22
The, the other part of this too, like, we've talked about this a little bit, it's the, it's just when you're seeing, like, draft big board stuff and he's the number two guy or something in the class, and it's, well, it, we're talking that way because we're still talking about him playing both positions.
31:36
But if we all think it's more likely that he's- Right... gonna start playing one position- Right... where does he actually rate out- That's right... compared to other wide receivers or corners?
31:46
Because as you and I have both said, s- sorry, give me McMillan over him at wide receiver. Yes. 100%. Sorry, Travis Hunter fans. That's exactly how I feel. Um, what are you betting this weekend, Jason? What do you got?
32:00
Got a little bit of golf. Uh, I'll be doing some, some Grapefruit League, uh, maybe, maybe some basketball. I always have my eye on the college basketball and a little bit on the NBA.
32:11
But, uh, otherwise, it's mostly just catching up on baseball, getting, getting more futures in. I bet, bet a little bit on, uh, Sandy Alcantara after the last show. I got, uh, 25 to one at Circa.
32:25
I think that was the best number left out there. Um, it was 40 before his first start.
32:30
I didn't, I didn't get a chance to catch any at the 40, but, uh, I've seen some compelling cases made that he'll have opportunities to pitch, uh, you know, this year.
32:39
And again, the only, the only, uh, major impediment here for Alcantara is the Marlins, you know, are not likely to be a, a serious contender this year, could potentially trade him at some point during the season.
32:52
Could kill the ticket if he gets traded to the American League. Yeah. So you know, that's something to keep in mind.
32:58
But, uh, sounds like there's no restrictions on him pitching, and he'll get, you know, he'll get five, six innings at least every, uh, every five days if he's healthy.
33:07
So, uh, Alcantara's my first, uh, nice futures bet of the year, Sandy.
33:13
Jason, uh, here at Circa they have alternate season win totals in baseball, so it's, like, five games or six games staggered to each side of the actual season win total.
33:23
Just letting you know, gotta run, but just letting you know that they exist here. Something we're gonna talk about with Fezzik coming up on the show. Yeah, looking forward to that. I'll probably t- [audio cuts out]
33:34
up with. All right. I don't know what Jason said there right at the end, but I think he was bidding us adieu. Per- perfect timing. Perfect timing. We gotta run. We'll come back. Fezzik, Felika, and more.
33:42
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34:28
Get your copy of the MLB betting guide today. It's Adam Burke's finest work. This is his, uh, War and Peace, Kelly. Hmm. Yes. This is his- The good stuff... Anna Kar- Karenina, or I'm just coming up with classic books.
34:41
[laughs] Sign up today at vsin.com/subscribe. That's vsin.com/subscribe, V-S-I-N.com/subscribe if you're scoring at home. We got a golf update, man? Are they cognizant? Do have, I do have a golf update for you.
34:52
Are you cognizant of the cognizance leaderboard, by any chance? I am, I am. This is, uh, man, yesterday we saw this course play, uh, I think the easiest it's ever played.
35:01
The Bear Trap, uh, the tough holes 15 through, uh, 15 through 17 played to, uh, played easier than they ever have before. Easier. Did I say tough? Easy, they p- it played yesterday.
35:12
Um- I just wanna know, how's Daniel Berger doing? Oh, we're live, buddy. We're live. Okay.
35:15
Um, I mean, the one, the one I've been struggling to hold back a live bet on is my buddy Cashmere Keith, who, uh, p- found how to f- uh, figured out how to putt again. [laughs] Cashmere Keith.
35:24
Uh, right now your lead- Is that like a Maserati Marv thing?
35:27
[laughs] You remember, you remember that morning when Ohio State was playing and Gus Johnson was like, "I, if I, if I, this is the last day on Earth, will make Maserati Marv a thing."
35:34
[laughs] Like, I don't know how Cashmere Keith came about. Yeah.
35:37
But then, but he d- he does rock the, just to s- just to set himself apart, he's always the guy rocking the, the normal golf shirt, but it's got like four more buttons, like, down to his belly button. Hmm.
35:48
So then he's really, like, he leaves it wide open, like, uh, with, with the, with the chest out. Okay, Jake Knapp still your leader, 12 under. Keith Mitchell has moved into second place.
35:57
He is two under on his round today, uh, through 14. Uh, he is nine under for the tournament. Johnny Vegas eight under. Wow. Um- Johnny Vegas. Yeah, man Johnny Vegas eight under, five under today on his round.
36:09
JJ Spaun eight under as well. Uh, he's out there through nine. Berger is eight under. Russell Henley eight under. Sammy Valimaki eight under. All of them have not teed off yet.
36:20
Uh, and then you got a bunch of guys at seven under.
36:23
Berger putted lights out yesterday, and a little shaky off the tee, so we're, uh, we're, we're gonna need to, uh, keep that putting going [laughs] hopefully, hopefully the, uh, the driver gets a little better.
36:33
It's not exactly how he's been looking the past six months or so, but, uh, he's live, man. I mean, what a, what a round.
36:39
R- really the story of the tournament is just this golf course, which is one of the tougher golf courses on the PGA Tour. Conditions have just been perfect. And they- Look at that. Look how beautiful that is out there...
36:48
yeah, it's just, it's been perfect the first day and a half. This afternoon maybe, or, is a little bit more dangerous. Usually the mornings do play out a little easier.
36:57
We are in South Florida, the afternoon thunderstorms can kick up. But man, with little wind, a little wind, we did see this course play a little bit easier a year ago, but they tightened fairways.
37:08
There's been no wind really that we've seen, Gil. Man, these guys are just eating this course alive right now. You have no Gary Woodland? You usually have some Gary Woodland. I have a top 20 on Gary Woodland, yeah.
37:17
Oh, you do? Okay. I have a top 20. It's not, he's going backwards today, though, and that's not good 'cause these guys in the morning, uh, should be playing a little bit better. You have no Jake Knapp, though.
37:25
No Jake Knapp. I would say if you were gonna force me for a bet right now, I did, I, I added a little, I don't think this is going all that well either, but I did add a little Shane Lowry top 20 yesterday.
37:36
He is even, yeah, he's even on his round through 11. What is Berger live now to win? Berger is, let's see, let me pull up the odds.
37:44
You- The, um, the other guy that was jumping out to me was Rickie Fowler, just looking at the stats. Berger live is plus 650. Rickie- Plus 650, he's four back. He's four back, yep.
37:55
Uh, Jake Knapp plus 330, and then it's Berger and Henley both, both s- plus 650. Isn't Berger the best bet on the board right now? Feels like it to me, and that's the course that he g- he played it a million times.
38:04
Played it a million times. I, I mean, I still like, I bet it pre-tournament. Yeah. I would. I, Henley's had a lot of success here, too. What did you get, what did you get, what'd you get the f- uh, pre-flop? 25? Yeah.
38:12
25. Yeah, so I, no, no, I still love that bet. Uh, a little concerning, some of the stats yesterday, though.
38:18
Seeing him being that, that wayward off the tee is not what he's been doing recently, so that concerns me a little bit.
38:23
I, I, I rarely ever say this, or it's been years since I've said this, I do think Rickie Fowler's worth a look.
38:28
Tee to green, he was second in the field yesterday, um, only behind Jake Knapp, who was just incredible everywhere. Um- This is, this is, I feel like I'll do a Wishnev here and I'll say I, I'll do everybody a favor.
38:38
I won't bet Berger so that you can win with him. Oh, thanks man. Yeah. I appreciate that.
38:43
Because this is, Wishnev says this all the time, but like whenever he d- he thinks of something and doesn't bet it, it's like a million and one lifetime, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
38:51
And in golf, for me, it doesn't usually work out if I bet it, right? A live bet like this. So I will stay off it, y'all can win with it. Oh, thanks, Gil. You're welcome, man. Y- you're the best. The, uh- Science. Yeah...
39:01
yeah, the one, the only thing I'll say about this tournament is, is this is one of those tournaments that, and look, I might be a little biased 'cause I covered this for a lot of years, but the, I don't bring up course history.
39:11
I, I don't feel like I weigh it as much as a lot of, a lot of other golf handicappers, uh, especially when we get into the heart of the season. No, we're not completely there yet.
39:19
Um, but it, but regardless, course history, I usually don't, I don't weigh as a- as much as a lot of other golf handicappers out there, but I do think this is a bit more sticky, uh, at this course, 'cause these guys that have played it before, we usually see in the mix.
39:34
It, now usually the scorings are n- is the scores are not as low, Gil, so that i- it's a little easier in my, in my opinion to make that, uh, to, to continue go, uh, scoring lower at this course.
39:45
So when you see tournaments like this where everybody's going low, it's a little odd to me that the course history is still sticking there with guys like Keith Mitchell, Daniel Berger, Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Rickie Fowler.
39:57
All these guys have won or played very well at this tournament before, and they're all in that top 10, top 20 on the leaderboard. So interesting to watch.
40:05
I, I think the weekend we'll see some weather roll through at some point. This g- this tournament will, uh, toughen up.
40:10
I know I said that every, I'm, I'm sort of obsessed with Daniel Berger, and the last time we talked about him I was saying, "Hey, do you know who his father is?" And you correctly said- Yeah...
40:16
Jay Berger, who was once number seven on the, uh, tour. Do you know what his middle name is, Daniel Berger's middle name? No. F. Just F? F. Daniel F. Berger. So you can fill [laughs] in the blank.
40:31
It's legitimately his middle name, F. My dad's a J. Really? Yeah. Just a letter? He's a J, just a letter. It's like a Harry S. Truman thing. I don't, I, I don't know what it is either, but.
40:41
F is just a funny one to have, isn't it? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it is. It is. Uh, by the way, Maya joint the, uh, our, uh, tennis play. She's up to minus 128 now. She was minus 127 when this segment started.
40:50
She's now minus 128. I would not, if you have not bet it yet, I would not let it get past minus 135 at the most. Um, that's around where she should be.
41:00
So minus 128's kind of drifting back upwards, but again, we got minus 119 on joint against Avanesyan in Merida, Mexico.
41:09
So what you're saying is Daniel, no matter how much you might dislike that first name, don't lose it, 'cause i- it would be real awkward if we're gonna start calling you by middle name, last name. Yeah. Yeah. Daniel F.
41:19
Berger. Um, okay. Uh, Djere, by the way, the other tennis play from earlier in, uh, Santiago in the clay court tournament at plus 330 heading into the, uh, the quarterfinals. Can we get back to the Warriors thing?
41:30
'Cause Fezick's gonna come here- Sure... we're, we're gonna go into, like, million topics, and so S- Feliko's gonna have a bunch of bets.
41:35
But I am, the whole time after this Warriors discussion, I am really talking myself into Western Conference play. I just, let's put it this way, I can't wait, as, as, as sort of exhaustive the, the NBA season is,
41:53
I can't wait for the playoffs. And we, we said last w- last year, remember, we're like, "Oh, I can't wait for the Western Conference playoffs. They're gonna be so awesome." Mm-hmm.
42:00
And I don't know that they nece- necessarily lived up to the hype, but I do think the dynamic this year is particularly fascinating because while the Thunder are clearly the best team, they are young And as we talked about with Carl Sack earlier this week, the thing that NBA handicappers will tell you about the post-season is, well, you gotta really kinda shrink your rotation.
42:21
And the Thunder have so much depth that you wonder, is that an advantage? Or in some weird way, they don't get an advantage in the post-season because everybody else tightens up and they play their players anyway.
42:34
Does, if that makes sense, maybe I'm not articulating that correctly, is that rotations shrink. You end up with the r- with the best eight players typically. Yeah.
42:42
And so if you're a team like the Thunder that relies on beyond eight- One of your great advantages is how m- how much production and how many minutes you're able to get out of guys seven through 10. Yes.
42:52
In an 82-game schedule, that works out, but in a best of seven, hmm, I'm not sure that's the greatest thing. And it's a little counterintuitive, right? Because what's the famous stats by Lopez stat that I always give?
43:04
Um, you know, in the NBA playoffs, 80-some percent of, uh, of favorites get through. Yeah, but that's usually, you know, front-ended, right, in the first round of stuff.
43:14
I, I'll be really interested to see if the Thunder can, can sustain this throughout the course of a, uh, conference, um, playoffs. 'Cause people call you, what do people call it, the Thunder Invitational?
43:23
I disagree with that completely. Yeah. I think it's, uh, it's very, this is very much of a c- a case though of what you say often to, uh, to me it is. It, it's a thing until it's not a thing, right?
43:36
Everybody- It's a thing until it's not a thing. But what else do I say? I was like, you, the folks who are too close to the sun on the NBA, the regular season almost hampers you. Yeah. I think it's fair.
43:45
And, and those of us who show up are like, I'm, I get Steph, Jimmy Buckets, and Draymond, and you get the young kids? I mean, I'm a big- All right. I'll take them...
43:51
I'm a big believer in star power in the playoffs, so that's like maybe the biggest point to me is, okay, there's Shai, and I'll fight anybody back on how good Shai, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is. Oh, he's fantastic.
44:01
But, but you wanna question me on who steps up if he gets shut down or something like that offensively, yeah, I get it. I get it. We me- we mentioned this on text the other night.
44:10
Are you sure Holmgren and Hartenstein work together? I'm sure they'll figure it out. Worst case scenario, one of them's just spelling the other. I took that as a no, not currently. Not currently. Uh. All right.
44:24
Just wanna make that point. Thunder with the greatest point differential in NBA history right now. Fezzik on the other side, so many betting topics. Stick around. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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