Search
Login
Sign Up
Feb 28, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 28, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | February 28, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
1×
Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Always appreciative that you're here with us. Gil Alexander.
0:20
Kelly Bidleman is alongside as well, but it is a Friday and, uh, no time to lose 'cause we have about 35 topics to get to. I counted. Uh, with Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contests.
0:31
He joins us now in the studio to talk about all kinds of things. And here we are on- Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays.
0:44
I completely botched that. No, I botched it too. I should've anticipated. You know, you know what this is? We're groggy because, you know, Gil was prepping for a show at 5:00 AM, and then
0:54
non-stop live wagering college basketball- Yeah... from 4:00, from 3:30- Yeah... until about 10:30 till the Arizona or the Hawaii game ends. Handicapping tennis throughout as well. Ex- exactly. Yeah.
1:06
So, so i- i- in all honesty, you probably work 16 hours a day, right? Kelly and I talk about this all the time, right? That Ke- so Kelly's handicapping golf.
1:15
Like, when you have, like, five tennis tournaments and there's, you know, earlier in the week it's worse because the, as, as the, as the brackets move on and you get to the quarters and the semis, it's a little easier towards the end of the week, but in the beginning of the week, there's, like, 70 matches, right?
1:28
You have to love it. If you don't- Yes... love it- Oh... th- you, this is not the job for you.
1:31
I've heard people say, "Oh gosh, uh, Sunday I gotta watch the Sunday night football game and I'm, a- and I'm already tired and I wanna- I'll never understand this, Gil...
1:38
go shopping with my sister," and it's just like th- th- this is not probably your role if that's the case. Yeah. You know? Um, that's exactly right. So what, what, what, we talk about that all the time.
1:47
It's like, yeah, you don't just show up and do two hours. You're, you're working all the time on stuff. It's a, it's a great j- it's a great life, don't get me wrong, but, uh, what, what's the, uh, line?
1:55
It's a, uh, "It's a tough way to make an easy living," they say. Well, and do what you love and you won't have to work a minute your entire life. Mm-hmm, that's right.
2:03
Okay, we have tons of things to talk about, a lot of which is, and I'm flattered by this 'cause you're always listening, there was some stuff that we talked about yesterday, and I'll just go through 'em in no particular order.
2:12
One was, uh, the, the guy who, if you missed the show yesterday when Crack was on, Crack Thursdays on Unscripted, we talked about- Love Crack. Oh, he's, it's fantastic.
2:21
Um, just completely off the cuff, and he, we, we brought up this guy in Pennsylvania who won, won in quotes, a $57,000 jackpot on a slot machine, but because he had self-reported, self-reporting being a mechanism, um, with, uh, with gaming and with compliance where if you are a problem gambler, it is a mechanism to sort of defend against yourself, defend against your own, uh, bad instincts.
2:52
And so because he had self-excluded, $57,000 that he won, he didn't win it. They withheld it from him, and you believe, which I think is an interesting thing, you believe he still has a case.
3:05
Well, I think it'd be fascinating. You should call Bob, Bob Nercessian, who's like a gaming lawyer. Yes.
3:10
And so I know he signed a disclaimer saying, you know, that he's foregoing his rights to any future jackpots when he does this.
3:17
However, there is a precedent with lots of cases, like if a casino says maximum bet $1,000, if a sportsbook says max bet college basketball 1,000, and I say, "I want $3,000," once they print the ticket or if I go to a blackjack table and I bet $3,000, I have action.
3:31
I have w- the casino, despite the rule, they have accepted the wager, so once, once they book the bet or they let me bet, my understanding is that they, okay, if I win, I get paid my full amount.
3:43
So the fact that you had this rule that he's not allowed to wager and he's not eligible for the jackpot, they're, they're accepting all these wagers, and if he's registered, if he has a player's card, I would think that that would trump the previous agreement that they, they, you know, the fact that the casino is taking this action.
3:58
I also think it's a stupid rule, and the legislators need to change it because here's why. Yeah, no, I get it.
4:04
You're giving problem gamblers a huge disincentive to ever sign up because, like, "Oh, God forbid I ever hit a jackpot. I'm the biggest dumbo in the world. I put my name on this no jackpot list."
4:15
Well, it, it's, it's interesting 'cause it's probably a state-by-state thing, right? Mm-hmm.
4:19
'Cause, uh, Vital Vegas was pointing out on, uh, on Twitter yesterday to me that if this was in, if this was in Nevada, right, um, that the person would've gotten the jackpot, and then they would've been removed from the premises.
4:32
Sure.
4:33
But he signed to language that, uh, that apparently was very explicit, like you're not entitled to any m- winnings that you have, but you made the point or s- or some of us made the point off air if not on, which is, okay, but what if he went in there and lost money?
4:47
Where's that money go? Y- so I don't know. There's, it's gonna be fascinating because some lawyer will pursue this.
4:53
And it's shocking how fast my buddies, like Richard Munchkin, that's so good at, at, um, uh, he's not my buddy, but he's a great blackjack player, probably one of the top five in the world. And a gentleman, by the way.
5:02
And a fantastic guy. Yeah. And, and 100 times smarter than, uh, you, me, or anyone else.
5:06
Like, how come when he walks in a disguise, within five seconds they can, like, have security say, "I'm sorry, sir, you're not allowed to be playing"? Yeah.
5:14
And yet this gentleman, some- somehow losing gambler, not nearly the same level of scrutiny to make sure he's not playing in the casino.
5:22
It'll be very interesting to see how that plays out, um, what, what, what ends up ruling the day in terms of the law there. Uh, the other thing I talked about yesterday, or one of the other things, was parlays.
5:31
Bill and I got into a parlay discussion. I don't know, uh, how you felt I did on that, but I sort of gave the three, uh, the three acceptable reasons to actually bet them.
5:38
I also allowed at the end, if anybody listened to the clip, I actually allowed that in tennis I still do them. I still do them.
5:44
Um, but I don't even think about doing it in any other sport because tennis I know I have it, I have an edge. Um, but you wanted to make a point about those, 'cause we actually got a question about this earlier.
5:56
You wanted to make a b- a point about folks who play two-leg parlays, and then once they hit the first, they behave in a certain way.
6:03
Yes, and just anyone who missed the segment yesterday, basically, and, and this is basic strategy, the pros know this.
6:10
You play parlays to circumvent limits, you play parlays to do correlations, you play parlays to look like a dumbo- That's right... um, to preserve- Those are the three... your, your playing lifetime.
6:18
And also you can play parlays for special promotions. A place might play a two-team parlay of 14 to five. So that's like laying minus 105 so you get extra half points on a parlay card or, you know, bet- better promotion.
6:28
But cancel all that. None of that, uh, applying. The problem, I see this all the time, people like trying to look smart that are really stupid, all right? And- That just bothers you more than anything.
6:39
More than anything. [laughs] In fact, to the point where even if someone is a good handicapper, I will never recommend them when they give this out to clients because it's just so wrong.
6:48
And it's not my opinion, it's not what Steve Fezzik thinks. You take 100 geeks from the University of Chicago, math geeks, and you ask all 100 independently would they, who do they agree with?
6:56
They're all gonna agree with me. Mm-hmm.
6:57
So now maybe all 100 of these math geniuses are wrong, and you're right, but probably the U- probably those University of Chicago people are right, namely, so you parlay two minus 240 baseball favorites, and the first one gets home.
7:10
And now the Dodgers are playing the Reds, and they're still minus 240. The line's still the same, and here they come. Oh, let's lock in a profit because my parlay was minus 100. I didn't lay minus 240.
7:20
I'm laying minus 100 on my ticket. No you're not. You're laying minus 240. The first bet has won. You've won 100. Now you have $340, basically risk to win 140 on the Dodgers.
7:31
So they say, "I want lock in a profit and I wanna play the Reds," you know, plus 210. All right? You're not locking in a profit. You're locking in a loss. You're essentially laying minus 240 and taking plus 210.
7:41
And it's then sometimes like, "Oh, I wanna play the, the run line then, and then I'll, I, I, I got a, a big middle."
7:47
It's all wrong on every layer, and every single competent math guy and sports bettor will tell you the same thing.
7:54
I think, I think you made this point about this particularly, but I believe it applies to beyond sports betting. I think this is more of like a human condition thing.
8:02
Betting, it really is a reflection of, of the human condition, which is people would rather be wrong their way than right your way. You know, I was having an, an argu- absolutely. And, and- It's beyond sports betting.
8:14
I think that's just human nature... it, it's beyond sports betting, and I, I'm, I'm guilty, we're all guilty of this. Yeah. We have so much conviction. Think about your feelings about global warming, all right?
8:22
No one really knows what's going on, okay? You look back in the '70s, it was cold as all heck, and it felt like we were going into an ice age, all right?
8:28
And everyone was talking about like all the, all, all this industry is, is cr- gonna create an ice age. Personally, I think global warming is a thing, and I'm concerned about it.
8:38
My best friend doesn't, he, he isn't worried at all. He has so much conviction on this, and I'm like, "John, neither one of us can be sure. There's not enough data. It's incomplete, imperfect."
8:47
It's like a poker, it's like a range of hands. You can say, "My opinion is this," o- on a lot of things, but you, you just can't be sure on so many things in life.
8:55
Now, the difference is in gambling, mathematics, and the like, it's different.
9:00
Like, when you're playing a game like, um, roulette that, on an unbiased wheel, or you're playing craps, or you're playing video poker, the math is the math, and there's no debating the math.
9:11
No debating the math whatsoever. Um, okay, there's also something, and this'll bleed into the next segment. There's also something going on here at Circa right behind us with baseball win totals.
9:21
They have put out, and we should give Circa their, what do the kids say, give them their flowers, uh, for putting these out. These are, you know, in the NFL, we're kinda used to them now.
9:30
And, and usually when Circa does the NFL ones, they're sort of staggered a c- on a couple layers on each side of the actual pre-flop season win total.
9:38
So it's- These are the alternatives- The alternative season win totals... so they're higher and lower. By example, in football, if a season win number's nine and a half, usually it's a game or two games.
9:46
They'll go 10 and a half, eight and a half, up and down. So in baseball, since it's a longer season, Circa has taken it to a, a, a little wider where it's six games plus and minus. Correct.
9:56
That's what I was going to say.
9:57
But you, but you, the reason I bring this up is because you, you, uh, the text that you [laughs] I always love getting a text that begins with, "My son and I did the binomial distribution," and so you guys figured out these are great bets.
10:09
Um, it's, it's really fun.
10:11
So for, the binomial distribution loves betting that taking the extra game or taking the extra six games in baseball because the bino- but, but it's, it's complicated because a binomial distribution assumes, let's just assume a 500 baseball team playing another average team for 162 games, and if you just flip coins 162 times, it would say, "Wow, I wanna play under 87," or, "I wanna go ahead and play over 75," all right?
10:35
"And I'm willing to lay minus 250." Now, here's the hard part. The, it's not just a binomial distribution because these teams, we don't know if we have a fair coin.
10:44
Let's say a team's lined at 81 games, Tampa Bay, for instance. All right. Maybe they're better than 81. Mm-hmm. Maybe they're worse. We're gonna, we're not gonna find out till they actually play.
10:52
Further, as the season progresses, the coin does become biased, injuries, uh, roster changes, et cetera. Look no further than, like, the White Sox last year, that by [laughs]
11:04
early May we realized that that pre-flop number, whatever it was, 70, can't recall, was just so wrong, and this was just a, almost an all-time worst, well, it was an all-time worst baseball team.
11:15
So the coin can be biased. So the binomial distribution calculating based upon the anchored pre-flop number is, is, i- i- is, um, gonna overvalue how often you're gonna land within the number.
11:25
And the d- um, the whale capper figured this out in football and that's why- He did. He was the first person to bring it up. And I, all accolades to him because I kinda pooh-poohed it.
11:32
Like he was like, "Take plus 200 and, and give up a game." His, his- And he was absolutely right... his sentence in English was, "The notion that those are priced correctly is probably a fallacy." Right.
11:43
And, and the reason being is they're priced based upon the binomial distribution only. We'll get to the, what Steve actually bet on that, and so much more. Steve Fezzik, Numbers Game, VSiN coming back.
11:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers Game live from Circa here in downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, uh, with Steve Fezzik hanging out with us on a Friday.
12:09
Fezzik Fridays. Messed up the intro earlier, my bad. Sorry about that. No, I messed it up. Well, no, I think it was both of us. Anyway, uh, real quick, there's a, 'cause you had a bunch of stuff you wanna talk about.
12:18
You did bet the Royals in these alternate season win totals we were talking about. What did you bet? Yeah, so I like the handicap. I heard Royals under 83 and a half.
12:24
I do think there should be a fine because- Heard from? You No Your show No, Adam Burke. Adam Burke. Adam Burke on his show. That's right.
12:32
So, um, Adam's gonna get mad at me, $40 fine 'cause he said 83 and a half, and I c- that wasn't, like, readily available. Oh. But that's, but that's fine. He's still making me money, so I'm happy.
12:40
Um, and I like this whole handicap. Uh, and to summarize, Adam said that, uh, the Royals are overvalued, and there's a ragging.
12:48
It's like the, you know, their ace might be as good, but, uh, uh, he's not gonna be better, and the pitching suspect, and all these reasons why the Royals. Yeah. He likes under 83 and a half or 82 and a half.
12:58
But so I'm like, "Okay, let me take a look at these." And Benson put them up, these alternative season wins. What's this? The Royals are 88 and a half. The Royals are not winning 90 games.
13:08
The Royals, if, if, if they- I don't believe so. Yeah... somehow overachieve again to the point that their noses bleed for five years, they'll win 86 games.
13:17
So I love that extra six games where I, I literally feel the ceiling is, like, 87 wins if everything goes right for them. They have a, they have a very frustrating offense beyond Bobby Witt and Pasquantino in the middle.
13:31
So it's, it's j- if you, if you were bullish on the Royals, to have to sit through that offense on a nightly basis is gonna be a tough thing, so.
13:38
And, and, and Burke brought up the point, I love this, that they're just, Witt is not as good on the road. So they're extremely vulnerable to a long road losing streak. And I don't know if Lugo's gonna be as good.
13:46
Like, I mean, I think, uh, to me, I'd, I'd be more willing to bet that he won't be, uh, anywhere near what he was last year in his, uh, near Cy Young, near Cy Young season.
13:55
He finished second, obviously, to, uh, Tarik Skubal. Um, Circa deserves its props for putting those up. No pun intended. They deserve the, their accolades for putting those up.
14:05
Um, and if it weren't for Circa, how would you describe the current state of affairs here in the lovely state of Nevada?
14:13
Well, the good news is that Nevada ha- has, you know, 80% of the bookmakers in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, but the bad news is that it is a wasteland despite all those Hall of Fame bookmakers.
14:27
I, I gotta tell you, without Circa, C- Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, you know, Pennsylvania would all be much more at- not just more attractive, much more attractive in order to, to, to play.
14:39
And in fact, there's a lot of sports betters that used to live in Nevada, and then they moved to Colorado. Yes And because you had more access to books. Um, and frankly, if you're trying to bet on apps, they'll...
14:51
Now, these books, they'll talk a big game, "Oh, we'll take bets from e- from everyone." Yeah, i- if you're physically in their property, you take your helicopter over and hang out at their one property.
15:03
I, I assure you, if you're betting on the app and you're not betting on Circa, I mean, you're, you're getting $100 limits on college basketball totals at that.
15:09
Oh, I don't wanna- If that I don't wanna go through it again, but, like, you know, MGM and, and s- and William Hill, they, i- i- they used to actually take bets, right?
15:17
But now it's all, and I love those guys over at the Aria. They're my, they're my buddies, uh, 'cause I'm there all the time.
15:21
But it's, but even, you know, even they, if they, if you gave them truth serum, they're like, the apps kind of, kind of didn't, instead of making it a better landscape, it ruined things in that, you know, I had, I'll give the NBA draft story again, where for those who missed it, where I was trying to bet somebody to go number one, uh, a bet likely to lose, and by the way, did lose.
15:40
And I had a day where it took hours, right? Where first of all, MGM wants to put it on the app. Okay, fine, I'll do it on the app. But then when you do it on the app, they limit you.
15:48
The algorithm limited you to, like, 30 bucks. I'm like, "Well, if you were gonna do that, I wouldn't have given you my money. Give me my money back." "Okay, here's your money back."
15:55
Which by the way, I'm not sure if they're supposed to do that or if they just did it for me. Mm-hmm. Then I go to Caesars. That was, MGM was glorious compared to Caesars.
16:01
Caesars then spins the number on me after I make the...
16:05
You know, so it's, if you can't rely on those two pillars, right, in, in that way, if you have those experiences and you're just down to Circa, yes, then- And Westgate and South Point are paper tigers. It's true.
16:14
You go to the window, they'll take a big bet, but not on the app. And believe me, as soon as you show that you're a competent sports bettor, you're talking about $100.
16:21
So how the world has changed, I've got a copy, Blackjack Forum from 2000, and they're talking about you should be sports betting. It's 25 years ago. They're like, "No camouflage necessary, no heat, no barring."
16:36
This, my friends- [laughs]... is outdated. He's got props, and he's throwing them behind his shoulder. Um, all right. [laughs] Let's talk about something else.
16:43
This is another, like, it's a very, it's as old a topic as, as sports betting is, but something rankled you yesterday, which is, uh, our buddy Spanky was talking about.
16:54
And by the way, Spanky is right about the premise, but you just wanted to sort of be a little more nuanced about it. By the way, and I love Spanky. Everyone loves Spanky. He's made a lot of money betting.
17:05
So here's a guy who has been extremely successful in his own sports betting and has branched out, and, uh, hosts Bet Bash. Tremendous job across the board.
17:16
So he came out on, I was surprised, on his podcast, he basically was cursing out everyone who is selling picks in the industry, and he, his, his point was, "Don't give any of them a penny." All right? Cursing them out.
17:29
And- People who sell picks. Yes. And I'll use an analogy. It would be like saying, "Don't play blackjack." You know, look at, look at the universe, like, almost everyone loses.
17:40
But everyone doesn't lose, and anyone who actually studies blackjack and works on the game does win. They have the advantage, all right? So the same thing really is true. Buyer beware.
17:51
It's like finding a financial advisor, right?
17:53
The vast majority of financial advisors aren't gonna help someone who is doing their own research because you just, they can't give enough, um, extra, um, acumen to your investments to pay for their time, okay?
18:06
That's, it is just too expensive. So you gotta find the right way to find the experts, and I cited people like Brad Powers, uh, Mark Lawrence, um, you know, like with their newsletters and how powerful those can be.
18:17
It's like, well, who wouldn't pay $10 to get a Brad Powers newsletter or a Mark Lawrence newsletter, or to go ahead and get, you know, an annual service? You, you have- Dr., Dr. Bob's analysis Dr. Bob Stolz. I like Dr.
18:27
Bob's, like, self-documented And, a- and, and he's been a winning handicapper for 30 years, and no one questions, you know, hi- No...
18:35
I mean, staying up all night, and he, and, and he's working so hard, and they're like, "Yo, you did this, and you're in this industry." Yep. So for Spanky to come out and say, and curse
18:44
people out, saying, "Don't give anyone a nickel," and my understanding, here's a guy that made, you know, maybe millions following people [laughs] that do exactly this, and paying for that information.
18:55
It just seemed inconsistent where... But you're right, in general, if, if you think- In general, he's right...
19:02
in general, if you think you're gonna make money finding some sharp former NFL cheerleader that is selling picks and, and, and ta- and buy her picks and, and invest in them, well, you're, you're a little naive, I think.
19:13
Yeah. No, I, I do, I, I understand what you're saying, though. It, it's, this is, I mean, again, this is as old a topic as it is.
19:19
We, we've gone years without even talking about this because I, I find it, like, a hackneyed topic, but generally, you know, once in a while it's worth bringing up because there's always new listeners, and certainly at SiriusXM 158 we have new listeners who perhaps haven't heard this discussion before, which is, yes, generally it's as old a scor- uh, scourge on the business as there has ever been, right?
19:37
It, it gave m- maybe more than anything or maybe as much as anything gambling a, a bad name because it was always, you know, the guys screaming loudest, right, on TV. That's your children's, children's children.
19:49
That's right, on 60 and one, or, and you have the Vegas Daves of the world who literally, like...
19:53
Again, I'll go back to the Action Showtime docuseries, right, which I had a part in sort of consulting on, and I, and I remember beforehand I was like, "I don't know, you, you guys, you shouldn't even give him the platform."
20:05
And they were like, "No, don't worry. It's so clear what a scammer he is. It's so exposed already." He drives a Lambo, though. He must be doing great. And that was the reaction, right? That was the reaction.
20:15
People were just as likely...
20:17
Yes, there was a group that was like, "Oh my God, yes, total scam," but there was ju- there was a group just as likely, their reaction was, "Yeah, but he's got that, uh, he's got that villa in Cabo and he's got that car, so looks good to me," right?
20:29
So- Sean Perry now. Right, yeah.
20:32
Which I haven't been following, but my understanding is he, he's, he's, he's a tremendous poker player, and if you need some gambling advice, I- he probably could give you good poker advice. I don't know.
20:40
I don't know the man. Um, you know, so I just, I guess what I'm saying is it's as, it's, it's as old as the industry itself, but yes, people should take a moment to say there are a couple exceptions.
20:53
And I get, and I get it, you know, if, i- there are a couple exceptions, like a Dr. Bob, for instance. Like a- Todd Wishnick. Why not get Todd's- Todd Wishnick... information?
21:01
He's giving out his information, what he's playing live. You know what? That's valuable information. A- and you know what? [laughs] You can get it by giving him a donation.
21:09
Yeah, he's not even a- he's not even requiring- Yeah... a payment. That's right.
21:12
Um, but you know, like everyb- uh, i- it's, it's a funny, it, it's a funny thing because you can make a claim that also cannibalizes itself, right? Like, if you're good, you know, you, you sort of...
21:25
Like, I, I just take, let's say Carl Sack, right, NBA guru who's on. There is no better veteran when it comes to his NBA totals. It is like clockwork how good they are, right?
21:35
So I would argue him, oh my God, you will make your money back tenfold. So, you know, at some point do they figure out your edge? Exactly. So that's, and here's- Yes... where the asterisk has to come in.
21:47
I've gotten into it with Right Angle Sports because on their site they've s- they've said, "Be a favorite to win." I'm like, "Well, no, wait a minute. You, you're not necessarily a favorite."
21:55
If you just smoke dope all day- Yeah... and then five minutes before the games go, "Oh, let me see what Right Angle's p- oh, they're on the Kent Akron over," which I'm on tonight at 155. Well, now it's 157, all right?
22:07
So if you think you're just gonna play Right Angle's plays at post after the line moves- Oh, yeah... and pay for his service- No way... and be a favorite to win- That's the problem...
22:14
you, th- that is exactly the problem. Yes. So, but having... No, no one would debate, hey, it's valuable to know who Right Angle has- Mm...
22:22
and if I can get it for a dollar [laughs] and, and, a- a- and get it when it's being released. You know, it, it's just a question of am I betting enough to justify the cost? Yes.
22:30
I j- I just, I, I think it, uh, as long as we can have a nuanced discussion about it where his premise is absolutely 100% right,
22:39
but just know that there are certain valuable people and certain valuable ways to view all this stuff. There are exceptions to the rule- Yeah...
22:45
and just having the general information of knowing who's on what is valuable. More with Fezzik on the other side. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
Sports betting never slows down, and neither should you. With the NBA and NHL in full swing, the PGA Tour underway, March Madness about to tip off, and MLB opening day just around the corner, the action never stops.
23:06
Start betting smarter with a VSiN Pro subscription for as little as $9.99.
23:10
You'll get a daily email with all the plays from host and their guest, expert analysis, deep dive stats, and exclusive insights to help you make the smartest picks. Don't place your bets unprepared.
23:18
Get full access today for only $9.99 at vsin.com/subscribe. We get tweets and beat in the book. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everybody.
23:27
This is from, as my screen goes ballistic on that, this is from, let's see. We'll start with Steve the Proxy: "Just stopped by a Bourbon Street bar here in Vegas
23:37
and was surprised to see a numbers game on side by side with ESPN. Total population at the moment, me and one other video poker degen at 7:30 AM. Safe to say ANG has made the big time."
23:48
Oh, love it when you and a degen are watching. Live at Bourbon Street, baby. That's right, baby. We've made it big time. Uh, Joe C., he might be at, uh, Indian Wells.
23:57
We'll see if, uh, we'll s- we s- we'll see each other at Indian Wells. This is from Money Capperletti talking about our, uh, NBA stuff. He says, "There's a national book that allows NBA award parlays.
24:09
Good luck for the def- [clears throat] for the Defensive Player of the Year consolation if Joker wins MVP." Uh, ND Money: "Maybe secretly Daniel F. Berger and Daniel Freakin', Danielle Freakin' Collins are siblings."
24:20
I thought about that when I was, uh, talking about Berger. C Spackler from Caddyshack: "I'm looking for an NBA MVP runner-up bet for my Jokic, uh, money. Anyone know a trading platform that will take it?
24:30
Trophies for everyone." No, you're not gonna get a runner-up market anywhere By the way, he has Jokic for MVP, Wemby for Defensive [laughs] Player of the Year parlay. Oh, yeah, that's not happening.
24:40
Uh, Buddhist Man, "Classic moment when Kelly was sent scrambling to the WTA players listing webpage on his laptop right after Gill cited Anna Karenina in comparison to the Vosin MLB betting guide."
24:51
DGen Southern Gent, "Would never claim to be smarter than Fezzik, but I'm curious if he has an opinion on round-robin/parlaying tennis picks.
24:59
In my opinion, it's the sport that round-robins and parlays are the most EV due to highly volatile markets and unpredictable start times." All right, let me address this. Th- th- this is complicated stuff. All right?
25:11
Growing your bankroll.
25:13
If you're a 55% handicapper and you parlay everything and you play round-robins, and by the way, if you're not playing money lines, but if you're playing round-robins and spreads, you should play by threes because the three-teamer pays six to one, and it's actually a better payout.
25:26
You're laying a little less than -110. Your, if you hit 55%, your ROI spikes through the roof versus making individual bets. So people will say, "My ROI is so much higher, I should just be playing parlays."
25:36
No, and the reason is they're inherently more dangerous.
25:38
So if you go, warning, math geek stuff, you have to bet less on the parlays because inevitably you'll have a bad patch, and if you have a bad patch playing th- you know, wheeling into, you, you can do, like, eight games you like, one, you don't get the best number necessarily, but even if you did, if you wheel them in round-robins by threes, you, if you go four and four, you get killed.
25:58
You get absolutely killed.
25:59
So you're gonna have long losing streaks, and then you're gonna have smashing successes, and your overall ROI is higher, but because you gotta rage- wager less, your bankroll growth is faster just betting 2% or 3% of bankroll on each and individual play.
26:13
We, we did not warn you there would be math on the show today. Corey Henderson, "775, how much can you get down at Circa on the yes/no to win the college basketball natty? $3,000?" No, sir, try 50,000.
26:25
We just looked up one random team, Alabama. Now, maybe Alabama was 50,000 because they have no chance 'cause they play [laughs] no defense, but, uh, I'm sure that's representative of what the limits are on all the teams.
26:35
And Edward LeFevre, "Gill, I try to never miss a segment with Steve. It's just awesome. I would love if he could do an hour like crack." There it is, Steve Fezzik fan.
26:43
That's, that, that's great company a bit- to be, and you know what I love about Bill is that he's the real deal. I, I respect people that enter all these contests- Yes, you do... that gamble, that are going out.
26:52
You know what I hear all the time? Someone wins a contest, like, "Oh, they just luck boxed into that contest." You know what?
26:57
To win it, you gotta be in it, and the fact that you're, you're r- out, and, and famously, people always say, "Oh, Fezz lucked out. He won the Westgate, you know, back-to-back years." I won the South Point twice also.
27:07
I won the Leroy's Money Talks. Okay, it was a long time ago.
27:10
I finished 21st in the Millions, you know, just, just, um, 2023, and I was part of Greg Jensen, you know, on the, on the Circa Survivor, and anyone who thinks that I just, like, didn't have any involvement in that- Oh my God, did he have involvement...
27:22
Gilly can speak to that. He had an ex- exhaustive amount of [laughs] involvement, if you know what I mean. Just the last month. Steve, I'm on the treadmill. Prior to that, it was all great. I don't wanna talk.
27:29
I'm on the treadmill. I don't wanna talk about this. [laughs] Um, two more random talk, uh, topics here before you leave 'cause you, you texted this.
27:35
This is, has nothing to do with anything, but we were playing tennis the other day, and you said, "Let's talk about how as adults we forget what's the most fun activities to do. 14-year-olds are smarter than us."
27:47
Oh, no doubt. So my son's 14. He's a genius, but, like, he brings [laughs] his basketball to school, and that's like, like, it's not the calculus class, it's not the AP World History, it's not the stats class.
27:58
He's a sophomore. It's the basketball that he gets to play- Of course... with his friends. It is the most fun. Gilly and I play tennis. Uh, we, um, Gilly's better than I. We go out there, we compete.
28:07
It's, um, it's, when we're done, and we're old g- I'm, I'm an old guy, I, it, it just feels so good, and I always, I'm thankful.
28:14
I'm like, how many more times, how many more years am I gonna be able to do this, or months or weeks? You just never know.
28:19
You know, your body's gonna break down, and then you look at these adults and their idea of having fun is like, "Oh, let me go p- let me go and play slots in the casinos." Go up to Mount Charleston. Go for a hike.
28:28
Mm-hmm. You forget how much fun it is as kids. Go play some pickleball. Go, whatever you like doing, you know, try to get back outdoors. Try to do what you did when you were...
28:36
Think about how happy you were back in, uh, in, in junior high school just playing, you know, touch football with your buddies.
28:41
Especially for us here this time of year 'cause we have a definite window before it's almost impossible to get out there. Yes. So for sure. Um, okay, wait, craps. You wanted to talk about craps.
28:51
You know, s- famously, so many poker players, TJ Cloutier's, Cloutier is the most famous, but they, they have a big edge, and they win millions in poker, and they give it [laughs] all back at the craps table, and it...
29:01
I'm a cyborg, you know. I mean, my left brain- Someone told you that earlier... cannot accept it. I'm, it's fine. [laughs] Go to, craps are really fun. Go there. You're not gonna win, you know?
29:09
Go there and bet the m- the minimum. Take your full odds. Uh, take two times odds. House edge is.6%.
29:15
You know, drink your old fashioneds, and you can drink your way into profitability with the comps, but don't, don't, don't, like, suddenly think that magically, you know, the, that, that the, the, the gambling math odds are gonna smile upon you, and you're gonna somehow find a way to win in, over your career or any one session.
29:34
It's just a, it's just a recreation. Have fun with it and bet the minimum, but yeah, these guys that lose it all doing that, I just can't relate. It's all math in the end, and there's still a house edge.
29:43
It's small house edge, or smaller than other games, but there's still a s- there's still a house edge. So the longer you're, you play, the likelier you are to lose. The certainty, uh, becomes more greater.
29:53
Well, well, you know, what's interesting is you don't live long enough for there to be certainty. Right.
29:55
So there are some pe- Archie Karas famously played negative EV games, I believe a lot of them, and ran up to $40 million, $80 million and then lost it all- Oh, lost it all...
30:04
playing craps and the like, but what he didn't realize is he probably ran four standard deviations better than the average bear to get there, and he's thinking he's actually doing something, you know, better than anyone else who's playing these low advantage games.
30:17
He just got lucky. Standard deviation, cash is on the show. Okay, you're, you just called yourself a cyborg. I've often said on the show you're a robot, but all bettors have leaks. What's yours?
30:31
You gotta have something that you say to yourself, "I know I shouldn't be doing this," 'cause you're the most robotic of all, the most mathematical, "but yet I still do." I would say laying too much vig.
30:43
And so famously I lost Purdue [laughs] Yes. By the way, that was two years ago. I've, I've been posting long shot bets since then. I lost 45 units on Purdue, number one seed in 2023 in the tournament.
30:54
Um, and number one- I won't let you forget that, dude... number one seeds are 156 and two, all right? So you did just fine if you laid minus 1,500 on all of them.
31:02
But it's not that they're a one seed, it's that they're more than a 22-point favorite, which Purdue was. But, um, I would say, like, in live wagering, I was crushing live wagering for years and years.
31:12
I haven't done as well of late.
31:14
And a big reason, we've talked about it, we have a, a text, Gil, uh, the Bear Falica, Will Hill, Todd Wishnev, um, and we're go- we're always going back and forth about, um, you know, what we're playing. Many things.
31:26
Many things. Yes, yes. It's, I'm like, "Too, for... Eight are fine. Too many, too much clutter, politics." [laughs] I don't, the, all I know about the Ukraine is, is, is from the risk map.
31:34
It's really big, and you could put in a lot of armies. It's a different show, Steve. Yeah. Right? Yeah. So, um, now it's, like, minus 115. At Circa, live wagering's minus 115. I texted Benson.
31:44
I'm like, "Sorry, Steve, you know, we, we need it to be minus 115." Other places, it's minus 120. You know what? Th- think about this. If you're hitting 54%, you're stylin'. You're a three, at a 3% ROI laying minus 110.
31:56
If you're laying minus 120, you're bankrupt. You know, 54% ain't good enough. So you can have a bet you like, and you gotta have, be able to say, "You know what? Just too much vig. I gotta pass." All right.
32:06
So you say that as we sit here quietly when, when no, when you're not in front of a, a s- you know, an app, make, ready to make a bet.
32:13
Rationally, you can, you have a moment of, of thought where you can say, "Okay, I probably laid too much on that," but in the moment, can you stop yourself?
32:19
The boat's going into the bonus, Gil, and there's eight minutes left. That's right. They gotta play first half over. That's right. It's gonna be hacking like crazy. This is how I picture you. Yes.
32:27
That's exactly how, 'cause you can't stop yourself. The same way you can't stop yourself- I can't stop, I can't stop myself... from being a enforcer on Twitter, which I tell you you shouldn't do. I've been better.
32:34
I've been better. Have you been better? Yeah, you have been, I guess. Mm, yeah, I'm, I'm trying. I'm trying. What, what is it about you that, that you can't help yourself with it? I, you know, I'll go back.
32:42
I'll explain this. I used to play chess. I was a state runner-up high school in chess. Were you really? And I would play people, and I- What state? Ohio. Candidate master. David Glick was the master.
32:51
He, I drew him in the s- in the state finals. Oh, David Glick. But he beat everyone else. I wasn't good enough to beat everyone else. Goddamn David Glick. David Glick, he, he's brilliant. So, hi, David.
32:57
[laughs] Um, so the, well, I would play a guy in, like, our le- a local league, you know, Southwest Buckeye League, and I'd be playing a guy, and I would, I'd crush him, and he's like, "Well, if I didn't make that bad rook move on the 20th move, I was winning."
33:11
And it li- like, like, you- Yeah... you were never in the game. I was like, a- a- and I could just say, "I tell you what, I'll give you an hour. I'll take one minute on my clock.
33:18
We can play right now for whatever money you wanna have," because, I mean, it's, it, it, fairly routine. So the great thing about chess, there's no luck in chess.
33:25
In all this gambling and this stuff, the, the best players in the world are hitting 55%, and the worst are hitting 50%. It's, it's all
33:32
just, it's very hard to distinguish between who knows what they're doing and who doesn't, even with a sample size of 100 or 200 or even 1,000. Stevie, we gotta run. Thank you. Thank you, Gilvey. Always fascinates.
33:42
Steve Fezzik, everybody. Chris Falica on the other side. All his bets next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa. It's Gil Alexander.
33:58
Time for our G Bank Best Bets of the Day every show, uh, every host and guest on that show. Uh, all, not just this one, but throughout the network, every bet in every sport recapped at the end of every show.
34:11
Uh, I am on one tennis play today, Maya Joint. Got her at minus 119 versus Alina Vanessian. Uh, Joint, 18-year-old Australian taking on a, a gritty player in Vanessian, but we got a good number here.
34:25
Uh, it's minus 128 now, still playable, but teetering at that number. But minus 119. Again, vsin.com/picks. It pays to subscribe.
34:34
Also have Lazlo Djere, Serbian, at plus 330 to win the, uh, clay court tournament down in Santiago, Chile. He is playing his quarterfinal match today. Uh, did Kelly have anything?
34:48
Did Kelly have anything today on the, uh, G Bank recap? I'm not sure if he did. Let's see if he did. No. Jason did, though, Jason Weingarten. Sandy Alcantara, 25 to 1 to win the NL Cy Young.
35:01
Jason with his first futures play or season-long bet of any kind in the Major League Baseball world that is, he's become so associated with. And, uh, Steve Fezzik, by the way, had a couple.
35:12
He had the, uh, Royals alternate under sort of, uh, backing up Adam Burke's, uh, handicap on the Royals under pre-flop number to begin with, so he went alternate season win total under, uh, here at Circa.
35:24
He also wanted to add as he walked out the door that he also, this was also a Burke handicap and a Sporer handicap here on The Numbers Game.
35:32
He also then took the Washington Nationals alternate season win total over, which I believe is in the lo- is in the mid-60s based on where the, uh, Nationals pre-flop number is in the low 70s. So add those.
35:44
G Bank, once again, the official bank of VSiN. Again, every show recaps them at the end, every pick, every sport, host, and guest.
35:52
G Bank upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for new G Bank Visa signature card customers.
35:57
First new customers who spend $1,000 on elig- eligible purchases, pardon me, within 90 days from account opening receive a $250 bonus.
36:05
In addition, if you spend $50,000 on gaming and sports app loads within the 30 days of account opening, you'll receive another $500 bonus. That's potentially a $750 bonus. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank.
36:18
That's vsin.com/gbank. Subject credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, it is not just Fezzik who joins us on Fridays. It is also Falica, Chris Falica, the Bear, El Oso, from Fox Sports.
36:32
He, of course, is, uh, not only on Big Noon Saturdays during the college football season, but has his own sort of empire of podcasts over there. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
36:41
How you doing, Chris? I'm, I'm, I'm doing well. Back from a vacation. Missed, uh- Uh, you along with, uh, Deborah Song, fashion stylist down in Turks and Caicos. Yes.
36:49
So it was, it was nowhere near as enjoyable trip as it, it was. You, you weren't there, Eric and Shallon weren't there, so yeah, it was just, uh, my wife and I. So, uh- Oh, wow...
36:57
yeah, it was n- not as enjoyable without, without our friends there. Well, just this just in, thinking about crashing the Falica family vacation next year perhaps. Beautiful. So we'll see. Look forward to it. We'll see.
37:06
All right, uh, where should we start? Should we start with soccer? 'Cause I know you have some soccer thoughts. Yeah.
37:10
Yeah, yeah, I, I, I played this afternoon, uh, Lecce under a half a goal in total, uh, against, uh, Fiorentina. Fi- Fiorentina is a team at the right on the borders of, uh, European qualification in Serie A.
37:23
Uh, they've dropped some points the last couple of matches, but they, uh, they should get on the right side of things today. Lecce really struggles, uh, scoring goals a- away from home.
37:32
So I think, uh, Fiorentina to keep a clean sheet today is a, um, a, a pretty good bet. I saw -105 at, uh, at FanDuel.
37:38
It was the best price that I had access to in Connecticut, but, uh, there might be something better out there, I don't know. Okay.
37:43
Uh, soccer, by the way, the thing with Chris is that we go through all kinds of random sports as well. Horse racing, I know you don't consider it random 'cause that's your bread and butter.
37:52
Do you have any horses for us today? Well, i- i- it's funny, I, I heard you tell the story before, uh, vacation about, uh, going to try and bet a Kentucky Derby future horse- Yes...
38:03
uh, that I had passed along to you, and you had difficulty doing it.
38:07
In full disclosure now to the audience out there, uh, that horse is Cornucopian, who, uh, was the Bob Baffert three-year-old that broke maiden, uh, last week at, uh, Oaklawn and ran a 101 Beyer, ran four lengths faster, uh, than the horse that won the Rebel.
38:21
So, uh, he is still around. I think I had you check the other day. I think you said he was still around 33 to 1 or so. 33 to 1. Uh- Yep... to, to win the Kentucky Derby.
38:30
Now, he's gonna have to finish second at least, uh, in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn coming up to make the gate. But, uh, I still think 33 to 1 i- is worth a play.
38:39
Uh, a- again, if this horse does qualify for the Derby, uh, he will be one of the favorites in the race. So, uh, he romped, uh, we'll see off the layoff if he can, uh, come back and back it up in Arkansas.
38:50
But I would still play Cornucopian at 33 to 1. There are a couple of Derby preps, uh, this weekend. There's the Gotham, uh, at Aqueduct. It looks like a race where there's a good bit of speed signed on.
39:01
Maybe, uh, if you're looking for a bit of a price, maybe take a look at the number one horse, uh, Scorching, who comes in from Woodbine.
39:08
Uh, the ownership connections actually, uh, have a lot of success, uh, in graded stakes races.
39:13
But I th- I think Scorching from just off the pace at a 10 to 1 in the morning line is someone that you might wanna take a look at. And then the, uh, the Fountain of Youth at, uh, at Gulfstream is this weekend as well.
39:23
It's a massive card at Gulfstream. Hopefully tomorrow I can get some other, uh, uh, horse picks in some of the other stakes out there. But, uh, I think Burnham Square is gonna take some money.
39:33
Sovereignty will take some money. Uh, the Pletcher horse River Thames will take some money.
39:36
But I think Keep It Easy, uh, is a horse, a number eight horse, for a Del Romans, uh, horse to sp- spring, uh, going, uh, stretching out from, uh, sprint to route.
39:46
Um, Del hasn't won a bunch of graded stakes races lately, but he's had a good meet.
39:50
Uh, and, and this horse, uh, might just be, uh, sitting just off that front-end speed and be able to carry it, uh, an extra, uh, couple furlongs or so.
39:59
So, uh, Keep It Easy, the number eight horse at eight to one, was someone I was looking at at Gulfstream. All right, to college basketball. Say I asked you to give me a double-digit long shot. No, strike that.
40:08
Um- Yeah... wh- I, I got a couple of double-digit long shots in college hoops. [laughs] Yeah.
40:13
And, uh, one of them was a, was one that I aggregated from, uh, uh, our good friend Todd Wishnev in the, uh, the affirmation chat that Mr. Fezzik was just referring to. Uh, VCU, uh, I got them at 60 to 1.
40:24
I don't know if 60 to 1's still out there anywhere. I know 50 to 1 is. Uh, but this is a team that if you get- You, you're talking about to make the Final Four, just to clarify. Make the Final Four. Yeah. I'm sorry, yes.
40:33
Yeah. Maybe I should have prefaced that, but yeah. VCU to make the Final Four. Uh, they are a team that probably is gonna wind up on the 10 or 11 line.
40:41
And if you're a, a two or a three seed, uh, you are not gonna wanna see them, uh, i- in the second round of the tournament. They are deep. They defend.
40:50
They, uh, defend the rim, most importantly, with a couple of, uh, 6'10" guys. Uh, they got multiple players who can score. Uh, they're a massive favorite tonight. They, they have the best team in the A10.
41:00
Uh, I think they should get in even if they don't win the A10. Now, they don't have the, the Quad 1 wins that a lot of teams do, but th- trust me, this team can play. Uh, Todd vouches for them as well.
41:10
He, he was on it before I was, and I started paying attention to it. I'm like, "This is a, a team that really reminds me of when they made that Final Four run, uh, a few years back."
41:18
So VCU, 60 to 1, was the team I played, uh, to make the Final Four. And then I played Ole Miss at 35 to 1 to make the Final Four. Uh, again, I am a Chris Beard fan. I think he is a great tournament coach.
41:30
And it was funny 'cause I, I had talked about this a little bit
41:33
on the, uh, Bear Bets pod, and, uh, a fan of the show, Trip Tepper, sent me a DM on Twitter as well, and, and he, we, we, we were going back and forth, and, and he brought up something that was one of the reasons why I thought Ole Miss to make the Final Four was a good bet, was because of Beard.
41:46
And you get that quick turnaround in the second round, and maybe when, if they get to the Sweet 16, Sweet 16, Elite Eight, his ability to adjust and plan and other teams having to prepare for him on short notice, uh, that's an edge.
41:59
Uh, Ole Miss can be maddening to watch, but the SEC is a deep league, and I think they might be a little bit overlooked.
42:04
So Ole Miss to reach the Final Four at 35 to 1 was another, uh, double-digit dark throw that I had there. All right, we got a couple minutes left. Let's go to baseball.
42:12
I think, Chris, that the first time you and I ever met, ever hung out, we were at The Westgate, and you were betting season-long baseball individual stuff. Yes. Um- I was... that was a long time ago. Hold on.
42:26
It was a very long time ago.
42:28
And I, I remember, I, I, I was like, 'cause I remember, yeah, we, we were, and then we were looking at, there was something in there about, uh, will a player have, uh, however many stolen bases it was, and I'm like- Yes...
42:38
"Stolen bases are going down now." It was a really high, it was a higher number than, uh, than you thought, and I, I don't think it came close to going over. But, uh, I pl- That was exactly the prop.
42:46
You're, you're absolutely right. I had forgot that was exactly the prop at the time. Um- Yeah, no, that, that, that, that was fun.
42:52
You and- We, we need to do that a- let's, let's hang out again when I come out, out there in a couple of weeks for the, uh- Oh, good. Let's do it... for the NHC.
42:57
But yeah, I played a couple of, uh, individual, uh, player props i- in terms of, uh, to lead the league in. Uh, I played Bobby Witt Jr. to lead the league in doubles. Uh, that was around, just shy of double digits.
43:10
He was like plus 9, 950 or so. He was second in the, in, in majors last year with 45. Um, type of player who can stretch out singles into doubles, uh, so I took a shot with him.
43:21
And then I played Mookie Betts to lead the, uh, the majors in runs scored. He, he's done it three times before. Uh, the Dodgers lineup is loaded. He probably would've done it again last year, uh, had he not gotten hurt.
43:32
That's obviously always a thing you gotta worry about with a player like Betts. He tries so hard [laughs] and plays so hard, uh, that he's liable to get hurt.
43:39
But I took him to, uh, to lead the league in, uh, in runs as well. And then I had a little bit of a dark bro, uh, on a home run leader.
43:46
Again, I know you gotta deal with Shohei, you gotta deal with Aaron Judge and all the other guys. But, uh, Mark Vientos of the Mets at 50 to 1 was someone I played to lead the, uh, league in home runs.
43:56
Maybe he's the one that benefits now from Juan Soto being in that lineup. First full season last year, 111 games, uh, had 27 homers.
44:05
Extrapolate that out, he could be a 40 home run guy and maybe be in the mix at, at a nice number. Who knows? Soccer, horse racing, college hoops, and baseball, from Chris Falica.
44:15
Ju- just wait until we do women's Euros in the summer. Yes. Can't wait. Chris Falica, F-A-L-I-C-A on the Twitter machine. BearBetsPod also on Twitter as well. Thank you, Chris. Good luck this weekend. Stormy is next.
44:28
Money Moves right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
