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Feb 2, 2026
A Numbers Game | February 2, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | February 2, 2026 | Hour 3
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Transcript
0:00
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0:29
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:41
eSports betting network, VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hello. Little buddy Kelly Bidlin.
0:52
Looking good after all these, uh, after all that weight loss. Yeah. You're going down still? I'm going, I think I'm going back up. Trying to get there. [laughs] I'm yo-yoing a bit. I gotta knock it down. Knock it down.
1:04
You, Steve, and I were talking on Friday, man. It is like the... You can't go out and have like, like Steve was yelling about. I was the same way.
1:09
Like, I can't go out one of these weekends and have, like, two great meals back to back- Nope... 'cause like I get on the scale the next day- Nope... and oh boy. Can't do that. Can't do that. Here's, this is just it.
1:18
I like food. Yes. Real problem. Um, just want to point this out. This is from, uh, this is from a gentleman by the name of... Are you familiar with Barry Jackson, 35-year Miami Herald veteran? Yeah. I am, yeah. Okay.
1:33
I didn't, I didn't think [laughs] that's who you'd be talking about, yeah. Yeah, so Barry Jackson just, uh... By the way, FLA Sports Buzz, Florida Sports Buzz, right?
1:40
He just, uh, said the Miami Heat offer for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis Antetokounmpo, let me pronounce that correctly. Miami Heat offer for Giannis is this: Kyle Lowere, Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier. Yep.
1:56
That's who you want. You gotta move his contract. Another young player or more. Two, uh, 2030 first-round pick, 2032 first-round pick, possibly first-round pick swaps in 2026, 2029, 2031. He asks, "Is this a good deal?"
2:12
I ask you the same question. I mean, so basically everything Miami could do. Anything, everything Miami has. It's everything Miami could do. That's young-ish. Yeah. Here you go. Yeah.
2:21
Um, look, it's, uh, is it good enough is the big question. That's everything they could do, and if you are... I mean, if you're a Miami Heat fan who wa- wanted Giannis, that's what you gotta be asking for.
2:30
I, I'm not sure that I was certain that both Ware and Herro's name were gonna be mentioned in their trade proposal. Oh, it was always Ware and Herro. Yeah, I mean, it's- Yeah...
2:37
well then, and then the, all, every first-round pick that they can right now, right? Yep. So I- they're doing everything they can, man. And Rozier you gotta move because the money.
2:45
Would you rather have that or the four firsts from the Warriors, Kuminga, Butler? Four firsts from the Warriors. Yep. Okay.
2:53
And that's a big fa- I, I think this upcoming draft is gonna factor in way more than it would have two or three months ago. 'Cause it, we talked about this a little bit last week when we were discussing the Warriors.
3:04
I think such the, uh, you know, two good things about the Warriors.
3:07
You can get more draft picks now that, which load you up for this 2026 draft class, which is important 'cause we see Darren Pe- Peterson, we see, uh, see Debanca.
3:16
Um, these guys are great, and all I've heard about the upcoming drafts after that is they're looking pretty weak, like the two years after.
3:23
So then you get on the back end of Stephen Curry's, uh, when we think he might be out of the league, right?
3:28
Uh, that's when you can get some more draft picks out of Golden State, and I think that one makes a lot of sense. I think if you are the Warriors, you are on the phone with the Bucs every hour on the hour- Oh, totally...
3:39
like, "Come on, do it." [laughs] Makes too much sense. I st- I still lean to this being very coin flippy of whether this gets done or not. Yeah, I, it feels coin flippy.
3:47
'Cause I either think, I think it's either the Warriors or it doesn't get done- Yeah... before the trade. I agree. I do. So my answer is I don't, I do not think that that Heat offer is good enough. But we'll see.
3:57
I, I feel, I feel like you're correct, that it is coin flippy. I would not be surprised at all if nothing happens. It makes sense for them to get the first, like the first...
4:04
Eh, I'm not sure that it's the first one in, but like the first one in and out there so everybody could compare it to, like let the public, let the media run wild with it, right? [laughs] Flood it.
4:14
No, they, they, then they're gonna ask each other questions like we are, right? What does Golden State have to do to beat this? You never know how that weighs in. [laughs] I would love to see Giannis and Steph.
4:24
Well, poor Draymond, what's he gonna do as Giannis takes the ball up court every po- every time. There's a chance he gets moved too. Ah, again, we'll say it again.
4:33
Is there ever been a player more valuable to one team that has so little value anywhere else in any sport as Draymond- It's incredible... as Draymond Green with the Warriors. Super Bowl odds next year. Super Bowl 60.
4:45
Sure, we got plenty of time to still talk about that, but Super Bowl odds next year, I'm curious if you agree with these. The Seahawks and the Rams- Mm-hmm... largely considered the best two teams in the NFL this year.
4:54
Sorry, Patriots, right? But largely considered the best two teams in the NFL this year. Both are plus 950. And largely, right, one would assume would remain generally intact. Yeah.
5:07
Fe- fe- feels short, Gil, but feels like the right two teams up top. I don't know if it feels short, right? Like, I mean, I think it's the proper price.
5:14
You remember how there were years where we would have, like, the Chiefs at ridiculously short numbers. Like six to one, yeah, absolutely right. Yeah. Plus 950. I think it's about right. The Bills are next.
5:25
Josh Allen still plays for the Bills, right? 11 to one. Then it's the Eagles and Pats and Ravens all at 13 to one. Ravens without John Harbaugh there at 13 to one. Pack at 14 to one. Lions at 14 to one.
5:38
Chargers and Chiefs at 15 to one. Do the Chiefs feel long to you? Yeah, they do. Niners 17 to one. Does that feel long to you? Texans, Broncos 19 to one. Jags 20 to one. Everybody else longer.
5:52
I will say the first, the first things that I thought about, uh, just comparing some of these teams, Eagles shorter than Packers and Lions I thought was a little surprising.
6:02
And, uh, yeah, the Chiefs at 15 to one, same odds as the Chargers I thought was a little surprising. And l- like the Lions, I'm actually surprised they're this long, 14 to one. Yeah.
6:11
'Cause we've, I, I, I mean rightfully so, everybody's made a big deal about where they finish in the division, what kind of schedule they're going to have, uh, likely. Yeah, f- 14 to one.
6:19
Well, I think this is a byproduct, right?
6:21
The one good, I'll use the word good, the one favorable byproduct of having a year where it is a complete free-for-all in the NFL, is that you get a market like this that is usually not as fun, right? Mm-hmm.
6:34
But this is actually pretty f- if I could use the word fun, because there, I think there are a number of good, uh, you know, really good numbers.
6:41
If you have conviction on any of these teams, because of the nature of this past season, you're getting probably, you know, a better number than you would've expected.
6:49
So I think there's a lot of these teams that are, uh, Packers and Lions both at 14 to one. I, I agree with you on the Lions, right? 14 to one. Chiefs at 15 to one is just a respect for Patrick Mahomes thing.
7:02
Should they ever be 15 to one with Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback? Probably not. Yep. A healthy Niners team at 17 to one. And I know not everybody's coming back, but 17 to one, pretty interesting.
7:15
I probably ha- still have them a half step below Lions and Packers, so I think that price is okay, but then it's, uh, I don't know, it's always just comparing to the Eagles.
7:23
But it's still a few points l- higher than, you know, l- more bang for your buck than you would've expected. Yeah. I agree with you about the Eagles. Like I would, I would have- I'm kind of-...
7:30
the Eagles and Niners probably the same price. I, the Philly fans will, will, will hate me for this of course, if they don't already. But it's, the, the shine for me is done on the Eagles, right?
7:40
Whatever, whatever you had going on there with Jalen Hurts, good on you, you got yourself a title. I just don't, I, he feels like,
7:49
you know, the whole season it was like, well, feels like he's lost a step or he's just waiting for the playoffs, right? Nah, just feels like he's not the player he once was.
8:00
And we said that even when they were winning a Super Bowl- Mm-hmm... that he felt a little slower than he once was. I'm, I'm already cannot wait to see that team next year. Yeah. Still got a great D though.
8:10
Like, like I'm not as quick- Still got a great D, so they're always gonna be in the mix to some extent. Still got a great D and a good offensive line.
8:16
Like I cannot, I will not be able to explain what happened this year at all. Like the, i- i- five years from now I'm not gonna be able to explain it. All right.
8:21
If, if, if the Eagles are, I'm not s- I'm skeptical about that, what about the Ravens? Are we done on the Ravens? Is d- is Lamar Jackson now in the category of the best days are behind him?
8:32
He looked a step and a half slower than ever last year. Was it injuries or was it the fact that this is just the natural decline of a mobile quarterback? Well, when we're- A mobile, all world quarterback...
8:45
if we're talking about comparing this to bets you can make too, like this is the Ravens. If you're gonna look under on the win total, I think you're betting all unders this year, for sure.
8:53
Like that i- I mean, we said it all this past season, but as soon as Lamar Jackson loses those legs, ah, he's not a quarterback that you're, you're, you're gonna be running out there every week with the confidence that he's a top five quarterback in the NFL.
9:04
So look, I could see, I'm not, I don't think that's gonna happen. I think they get back to things a little bit this year, but man, after this past season, watch out.
9:13
Richard Burkhardt on Twitter, "Did you run the Super Bowl odds talk for next season by Mike Alvarez?" [laughs] Sorry Mike. Just had a bully pulpit there for a second. Um, what about a t- let's put it this way.
9:25
So we just listed 14 teams, right? A little less than half the league. Is there a team not pictured on this board, now it's a 20 to one or lower- That's what I was just looking at... that you would consider a bet on?
9:38
Oh boy. Bears? Chicago, not listed. 25, they're next one down. Washington not listed. A year removed from a championship. 60 to one on the Commanders. 60 to one on the Commodores.
9:49
I thought the Bucs was a little surprising at 40. I'm not. I, I just can't buy an NFC South team. Yeah, I hear you. I hear you. Um, Patriots most... Oh no, the Patriots are there, 13 to one.
10:02
I was gonna say Broncos, but they are 19 to one. Um, th- Your next six teams not listed- Yeah... on our graphic. Bears 25 to one, Bengals 28 to one, Cowboys 35, Bucs 40, Commanders 60, Steelers 60. Steelers 60.
10:19
Vikings and Colts also 60. That's what makes the Steelers thing so interesting too, right? Did you get Mike McCarthy, and I know some people quoted, "Oh, Mike McCarthy really high on Will Howard."
10:30
Nah, Mike McCarthy was also quoted as saying, "Oh yeah, I absolutely want Aaron Rodgers back here." Right? Was that the nat- Was the nature of the Steelers hiring
10:41
so that they could do anything possible to not fall flat on their face the year after Tomlin? In other words- It's a good question... in other words, Mike McCarthy will lure in Aaron Rodgers for another year.
10:53
Therefore, with even an aging Aaron Rodgers, you convince yourself that there's a floor that you can't go below, and so we save face, we won't stink. What's your take on Rodgers? Eh, he's 40.
11:07
No, like do you think he's back? In the NFL? Yeah. Yeah, I don't think his ego will allow him not to. Okay. Whether it's the Steelers or not, I have no idea. That's interesting. Yeah.
11:16
I guess I'm, I'm assuming he's back, but I'm assuming it's for the Steelers. Well, okay. Let's say it is the Steelers. So, but s- they should be 60. They shouldn't be any shorter than that. No. Yeah. No, that one's fair.
11:29
Anyway, if you had to make one bet, what's the bet? You're forced to make one bet. The bet is- Lions... Lions 14 to one? Yeah, put me, put me down for Lions.
11:35
I do think they're, the, the couple of the AFC teams at the bottom here. Like okay, the Broncos. Broncos are 19 to one, which feels like a little disrespect when we see the other teams that they're around.
11:45
Like okay, they lost a playoff game with, with Jared Stidham out there. Like feels like we're f- we're p- penalizing them a lot here. [upbeat music] As much as I have sort of crapped on the Broncos this year,
11:57
I think the Broncos at 19 to one is about as good a bet on there because remember the Russell Wilson salary cap money now finally goes away, so they can actually pursue players- Yeah...
12:09
with Bo Nix under the rookie contract. So 19 to one on the Broncos. And I mean, Jags- Pretty good... Jags 20 to one's long for how may, how many, how much love we heard about them. Eh, still with you. Coming back.
12:20
Adam Burke next on the Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:28
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
12:36
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro.
12:48
We have the tech to get food delivered in 15 minutes, but we all have horror stories about buying tickets. The Game Time app gives fans the advantage. Get amazing tickets in just a few taps.
12:59
Fees are included, so what you see is what you pay, and the Game Time guarantee means authentic tickets at the best price every time.
13:07
Take the guesswork out of buying tickets to concerts, sports, comedy, and more with Game Time. Download the Game Time app and create an account for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply.
13:17
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil, Kelly, in the hizzy. What's up? We got tweets, we need to book.
13:33
Filthy the Kid, "Is there value on any Pats DBs for MVP? Only way Pats win is if Darnold Darnolds." Oh, I see what he's saying, so throwing picks, therefore he gets to Patriots DBs.
13:45
What, what's the Christian Gonzalez price? I mean, I'll look it up. Yeah. But, like, let's talk this out. What do you gotta do? Ah, you gotta, you c- you can't do it. Okay, one pick have to have. You can't do it.
13:54
Pick six probably, or multiple interceptions, and/or multiple interceptions. So- I don't know if a pick six gets you home... three picks and a pick six in- included. That probably gets you home.
14:04
Does two with one included get you there? I'm not sure it does. I'm not sure it does either. No. Those are, like, tho- that's what you're betting on.
14:10
Is, is you can really talk yourself into these things, but just reality is most likely not. I think that's a good way to start though, right? What kind of stat line do you even have to be looking at?
14:19
Torch D, "The one who put the satin in your panties. As soon as I heard Denver 19 to 1 for the Super Bowl, I emptied the account on it, $5.36. No more Russell Wilson money, rookie quarterback contract, amazing defense.
14:31
We have it all and probably won't lose one game." All right, easy on that one. Five dollars. [laughs] He had $5.36. He emptied it out.
14:38
[laughs] Sky High, better brewer, "Gil saying Washington is a year removed from a championship is like hearing a player is on an injury report with a hamstring, laughing emoji."
14:49
I merely stated a fact, Sky High, that they were a year removed from a championship at that point. Gonzalez 100 to 1, by the way. 100 to 1? All right.
15:00
Of course, at that point they'd be two years removed from a championship once they get to the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. No, I'm sorry.
15:06
Uh, and Brian M., "Next steps for Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh to ensure a Rodgers return, trade for the rights to Randall Cobb and sign Allen Lazard." Yeah, that'll do it. Maybe even call Greg Jennings up.
15:16
Maybe get, uh, Jordy on the, on the horn. [laughs] Jordy Nelson in. See Jordy come back. Ladies and gentlemen, Adam Burke joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. We always love hearing from Adam on a Monday.
15:26
You can follow him, uh, on Twitter [laughs] on Set Skating Tripods. Now I laugh every time I go to his Twitter account- [laughs] Every time on Mondays. Good... 'cause I messed it up one time.
15:34
Uh, Adam, good morning to you, sir, with his Cleveland Guardians hat on. How you doing, man? Doing good. Uh, tell you what, the Super Bowl betting guide comes out tomorrow- Yes...
15:45
over at vsin.com, and, uh, going through, editing the submissions, editing the best bets and all that. Boys, I think this is the best participation we've ever had- Really? Wow... for one of our VSiN guides.
15:55
So we're looking forward to getting this one out there to everybody. I did, uh, I did notice a trend with some of the, uh, selections. I'll just leave it at that. What? Oh, what? What?
16:04
When I was putting in my winner and, uh, by how much. Oh, you did? The w- winner had a bit of a trend on it. We'll see, we'll see. Meaning very few people took the Patriots? Is that what I'm trying to hear? Uh, maybe.
16:13
We'll stay tuned, find out. All right. Well, Super Bowl betting guide coming out tomorrow. Um, deadline for submissions for the rest of the VSiN crew who hasn't put it in yet, 40 minutes from now. [laughs] Get it in.
16:22
S- sure they're all running. I'm sure they're, I'm sure they're all, "Oh, no, I forgot to do it." All right, Adam, uh, earlier, and this was not a personal affront, please don't take it personally.
16:31
I am under on the Guardians again. You are a Guardians fan. We ha- we were oppo on this last year. I owe you dinner. We won't get into the details again, but I owe you dinner. What do you think about it this year?
16:45
Uh, I'm gonna, I'm gonna take my money and run, so to speak, with this one. I am not gonna go head-to-head with you on this [laughs] again this year.
16:53
Um, I mean, like, the White Sox are trying harder in the AL Central than the Guardians are right now- Yeah... with the moves that they've made here this off-season.
17:01
It's, I realize that the Guardians locked up Jose Ramirez, and that's fantastic, and, you know, I mean, you talk about hometown discount, like, this is the epitome of that.
17:10
Uh, and yet they're still not doing anything to maximize the multiple below market extensions that Jose Ramirez has signed with this ball club. So, um, yeah, it's gonna take a lot of things going right.
17:20
They're gonna have to have a lot of guys stay healthy who have not stayed healthy throughout the course of their careers, like a George Valera, like a Chase DeLauter. Um, maybe Travis Bazan is actually a dude.
17:29
I don't know. But for Keith Law to grade the first overall pick from a couple years ago 50th in his top prospect list is kinda depressing, if we're being honest. [laughs] Wow. Uh, so- Yeah...
17:40
I think you're, I think you've got a much better chance of being on the right side of this one here, uh, than I would if I went over.
17:47
You are, of course, the author of, or one of the authors, but main author always, our baseball betting guide. When is the expected date-ish for that release?
17:58
Yeah, I know people think that, like, "Oh, football's over, it slows down." Uh, that's, that's not true for us at all.
18:03
Uh, February 17th will be the release of the MLB betting guide, side-by-side team breakdowns and analyses from myself and Jensen Lewis, where I'm a nerd, I'm a numbers guy. The glasses tell the story here, I guess.
18:14
Uh, and Jensen actually played the game and throws a lot harder than I do, so he can give us a different perspective on these teams, on these players, maybe some of the new manager situations, stuff like that.
18:24
Whereas Mine's a numbers deep dive into looking at these teams from a, you know, more quantitative aspect. So really looking forward to that.
18:31
It's something we've never done before, something we haven't really had the opportunity to do. Uh, but looking forward to that, and that comes out a couple weeks from tomorrow, February 17th, over there at vsin.com.
18:40
I love that, the combination of you, the numbers guy, with, with Jensen, who played the game. Do you find yourself, Adam, I'm just curious, when you're going through stuff and then you get Jensen's take on something,
18:52
m- and maybe there are circumstances where you guys see things differently, does it give you extra pause when it comes from a, a guy who actually played the game? Yeah, to some degree it definitely can.
19:02
You know, I mean, obviously, uh, you know, he's a guy who is, I don't wanna say recently retired from the game, but, you know, when he was playing, there was a lot more data available.
19:12
Front offices, coaches, managers were sharing a lot more of that data. So he is well-versed in the metrics and the analytics as well. So, you know, I'm not gonna sit here and pretend- Yeah...
19:20
that he's just throwing out a bunch of cliches and all of that. But- [laughs]... you know, there are a lot of things that- Yeah... you know, he can kinda point in my direction that I, I can't think about.
19:29
You know, clubhouse dynamics, um, you know, maybe teams. You know, what's, what's the mindset of a team that went out there and, and did spend a bunch of money trying to improve the ball club, right?
19:37
Like Toronto has doubled and tripled down on making it to the World Series last year. The Guardians win back-to-back division titles, and they don't spend a dime.
19:44
So, you know, what do those things kind of feel like in the clubhouse as you're getting ready for the season, you know, stuff like that. Do the players come out and say, "Look, the front office believes in us.
19:54
That's awesome. You know, we're gonna go out there and prove them right," or is it, "Hey, why the hell didn't you guys get us some help?"
19:59
So I think Jensen being able to shed some light on those types of dynamics is gonna be really, really valuable for me and also for our audience.
20:06
Yeah, and I'm glad you said that about, uh, you know, just, uh, Aaron Schatz deals with, uh, with this a lot with DVOA.
20:12
People immediately assume, oh, he never watches a single game 'cause he, he's, you know, dives into the numbers so much. No, he watches more game tape than maybe anybody. Same holds true for Jensen, who played the game.
20:22
It's not like he doesn't know about analytics. Um, did you c- did you wanna share one play that you like from the guide with us at this point? So I, I haven't locked in any plays specifically just yet. Okay.
20:36
Um, you know, also it's a really tough thing for me, and I guess this is something we could talk about, you know, going forward here, where if you're gonna play an under, you know, on a season win total, it's probably only going to get better throughout the course of spring training as dudes get hurt.
20:48
If you're gonna play overs, yeah, you might lose a little bit of line equity, but, like, you don't wanna play an over on the Mets, and all of a sudden Juan Soto, you know, breaks his hamate bone and he's out six weeks or two months or something like that.
21:01
So, you know, that is something I pay very close attention to during spring training.
21:05
Uh, so the teams that I kinda don't like, you know, those are ones that I'll kind of play earlier on in the process, whereas the teams I do like, I'm gonna hope like hell that they make it to the, to the regular season and to opening day healthy.
21:16
All right, let's get to college basketball. Not the biggest slate tonight, but you have a play or two? Yeah, I got a couple of plays, and I promise you these are real institutions of higher learning.
21:25
[laughs] Um, Howard and Coppin State- Yes... is a game on my radar here tonight, uh, in the MEAC. Um, I like the over 146.5 in this game.
21:34
Moved up a little bit overnight, but, uh, Coppin State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation.
21:40
Opponents in conference play, and this is not a good shooting conference by the way, at all whatsoever, Coppin State's opponents are shooting 46.5% from three against the Eagles in their conference games here so far.
21:52
Probably not sustainable. They'll get better just kinda by default. But Howard is a team that, you know, they don't shoot the three particularly well, but they're very good at getting inside.
22:01
So if they can score on the inside and also score on the outside against this really bad defense, then I think we're gonna see a lot of points in this game. Howard's also better at forcing turnovers.
22:11
They're gonna push the pace in this one. So playing over 146.5 in that, uh, ESPN+ barnburner of Howard and Coppin State. Nothing like a Friday afternoon on the quad at Howard University. What's the other one you have?
22:24
Uh, the other one I got, New Orleans and East Texas A&M. So again, I swear to you, these are actual- [laughs]... colleges and universities here, uh, coming out of the Southland.
22:32
So I faded East Texas A&M against Nicholls State over the weekend, and that one came through. East Texas A&M was a slight favorite. They lost the game outright.
22:40
New Orleans beat them by 10 in the first game, but New Orleans was up by 15 plus, you know, in the second half. The game was really never close at any point in time.
22:50
Uh, New Orleans is actually a pretty decent team here in the Southland. I mean, it is still McNeese State's conference to lose in all likelihood. Stephen F. Austin's really good, too.
22:58
But New Orleans is a team that's second in this conference in adjusted offensive efficiency. East Texas A&M is a very, very, very, very bad team on both ends of the floor.
23:07
So I laid the short two and a half here with the New Orleans Privateers in this one. The old Adam Burke fade East Texas A&M segment. Ah, tried and true.
23:16
All right, before you go, Adam, I will ask of you what you asked of all of us in the Super Bowl betting guide. Give us your Super Bowl 60 final score and who the MVP is. A couple things I wanna mention here real quick.
23:27
Seven of the last nine Super Bowls have had a quarterback as MVP, 18 of the last 27. So I know you guys were talking about, you know, are there long shots, are there defensive players, whatever the case may be.
23:37
It takes a lot, like you guys were alluding to, so I think it's a really important point that you made. Um, I think the Seahawks win in cover, and so therefore I think Sam Darnold's your MVP.
23:46
As long as he takes care of the football, that's how Seattle should cover in this game. So my favorite bet, though, Seahawks first quarter minus half a point even money. Ooh, okay. I like that.
23:56
Might've tailed Adam on that one. I, I, I like the, that we keep hammerin' home the Sam Darnold thing, though. I think that's just the, just the responsible thing to talk about. Thank you, Adam, as always. Appreciate it.
24:06
Thanks for the college hoops plays. Have a good one, guys. Adam Burke, everybody, right here on The Numbers Game. Kelly and I coming back on the other side. It's The Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
24:14
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24:25
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24:34
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24:51
for Alexandra Ayala, up 4-3. First set against, uh, Sanmez, Zeyneb Sanmez from Turkey. Ayala, Filipina. And again, minus 107 at vsin.com/picks last night.
25:06
Bet all the way opposite of us to plus 112, like people had the final score. We can get a break here. We're looking good. We shall see. We shall see.
25:16
That's our tennis play this morning that we, uh, talked about at, in Abu Dhabi.
25:20
The one I have tonight, which I even haven't submitted to vsin.com/picks, but I am playing is Lila Fernandez tonight versus the American McCartney Kessler. So tennis happening now, tennis happening, happening later.
25:33
Let's see if we can break here. Kelly, uh, NBA MVP. We talked about NFL MVP, and by the way, I just, again, with NFL MVP- Steve Fezzik tweets the show, by the way. What did, well, what did he say?
25:45
I actually think this is an interesting point. He texts the show or he tweets the show? Texts the show. Yeah. Texts the show. What'd he say? Thank you. You're right. Um- What'd he say?
25:50
Talking about Berf's first quarter bet. Break. 'Cause I actually, I actually ended up tailing Adam. I played Seattle in the first quarter too. I thought he had a good write-up.
25:57
Um, Steve makes the point, you know, you could wait till coin toss and try to figure out who's getting the ball. I, I think that's completely fair. Not a huge bet for me.
26:04
Uh, but he's just pointing out the money line versus the spread price. So I laid a half point in the first quarter with Seattle. It got plus 110. Uh, Adam just mentioned laying minus 150 on the money line with Seattle.
26:15
And, uh, Steve's just doing the math for us a little bit. That half point is worth 80 cents, he said. Yeah. Well, he also was on a numbers game on Friday, and Bill Adee highlighted this in the newsletter this morning.
26:23
He was talking about, you know, we were talking about what prop bets really can you sort of bet advantageously, and one of them was even better on the Adam Berk bet, right?
26:34
Even better would be to wait until the coin toss is over, and then try to ram it through Congress, right? If you know Seattle gets the ball first. Yep.
26:43
Because again, there is a bigger gap between coin toss and kickoff in a Super Bowl than there is on a normal- Mm-hmm... Sunday game. So. Yeah, definitely worth pointing that out.
26:51
And by the way, he, he points out also we don't want any part of it if New England starts with the ball, right? That particular bet. Mm-hmm. So that's just a way to game the game, if you will, courtesy of Steve Fezzik.
27:03
Uh, Fred Leonard's on Twitter, "A wise man once said that you must have a quarterback on a rookie contract or a generational quarterback, Hall of Fame- [laughs]... way to win the Super Bowl.
27:10
Food for thought this weekend?" Um, yeah. Oh, so what you're saying, it's gotta be the Drake May Patriots, can't be the, uh, can't be the Seahawks, right?
27:20
Well, Joe F- Joe Flacco is gonna be the exception to that rule, right? Joe, Joe Flacco will be the first exception to that rule since the Brad Johnson-Trent Dilfer years. So Trent Dilfer won it with the Ravens in 2000.
27:35
Brad Johnson won it with the Buccaneers in 2002. Joe Flacco's the exception to that, really? Jalen Hurts, the book is still out on, but Joe Flacco will be an absolute non-Hall of Famer to have won a Super Bowl.
27:50
So there are exceptions. Sam Darnold might end up being an exception. Yep. There's just that. Uh, and Brian M.
27:57
on the Pats cornerback MVP talk, "The number is short, but Marcus Jones 100 to one would be the most likely if he gets kicked, if he gets kicked to. Oh, and can change the field with a score.
28:08
He could grab an interception, et cetera. It's a long list." I see. Also on a return, Marcus Jones. Yeah, I just think we're, falls under the category of two weeks of...
28:18
You know, and then inevitably one of these Super Bowls, right, one of these is gonna hit, right? Some random- Oh, for sure. For sure... some rando's gonna win MVP, and we'll be like, "See, I told you.
28:28
All your conservative quarterback talk." Well, yeah, but. I just, I'm actually fascinated ta- talking about that, uh, this market, this, these last two weeks, 'cause you and I haven't made a bet yet. No.
28:36
I, I think we have collectively moved to if we were gonna make a bet, it would be Darnold, I think for both of us. Oh. You might actually land there, right?
28:43
And not only that, I just haven't, I just haven't gotten to the window yet to do it. Right. Right. I will do it, yeah. So, but like, like I brought this up last week, but you're talking,
28:51
I mean, Stefon Diggs at 55 to one. We're getting into like defensive players quickly after. Like, there's just not many guys listed- Huh...
28:59
that like I could make a quality case for being even involved in this conversation. 'Cause the Patriots don't have any explosive, with the exception of Treveyon, right? Mm-hmm.
29:09
Treveyon did have a few games this year where he just ex- where he just had unbelievable runs and pass catches for touchdowns. So I, I get the people who are trying to make a case for him.
29:19
But generally speaking, these are not the most star-laden teams, you know, with skill position. This, this is not the Atlanta Falcons group of, you know, London and- Right. But-... Bijan and Pitts.
29:33
Plus we always have that conversation anyways, right? Yeah. What does a receiver have to do- Yeah... to, to, uh, take the attention away from the quarterback?
29:38
Isn't that amazing that the team that I cited is the Falcons with these players? [laughs] Just shows you. Yeah, man. Yeah. Um- All right. And, uh, you want, oh- Yeah, NBA MVP... let's talk about NBA MVP. Yeah.
29:48
'Cause we talked about, uh, you know, Super Bowl MVP. We talked about Super Bowl futures. NBA MVPs, I'm curious 'cause Jokic is back on the court now. He can't win it. Yeah.
29:57
But it does call to mind the MVP market, and Chris Fallica was on on Friday, and he sort of, not sort of, but he out loud, he sort of said as, as the f- as the s- Thunder were losing basketball games,
30:07
obviously they righted the ship last night, but as they were losing more basketball games than a lot of people thought they would, "Hey, is there," he, he, he asked openly, "Is there another player besides SGA that you could perhaps bet on here for NBA MVP?"
30:20
And correct me if I'm wrong, your response was sort of lukewarm, 'cause, 'cause generally speaking It's a great thought, but who's the guy? Right. That was the big problem.
30:30
And again, this is things that happened on the show Friday that, like within hours, we was, "Ugh," okay. Right. Yeah, Chris a- asked me a great question, we get out, we get out of the show within two hours.
30:39
Did Nikola Jokic used to play tonight? Yeah. You're like, "Oh, okay. Welcome back to- Yeah... Nikola Jokic." So I think if you were listening Friday, I, like, look, Luka's definitely that...
30:48
He's pro- he's definitely that next guy. You just gotta be more convinced the Lakers are winning games than I am. Uh, but look, he's at 11 to 1. You got two more games that Nikola Jokic can miss.
30:58
I think it's gonna be really fascinating. I was just doing the math on that. Right. It's literally two games. It's two. Yeah. It's two. So, like, it's gonna be really fascinating to see what the Nuggets and him do here.
31:08
I don't know if you're... Were you watching any of the game last night, Nu- uh, Nuggets and, uh, Thunder? A little bit. Just a little bit. Like, he, he definitely, he looked great on Friday.
31:14
I thought he looked rusty and winded yesterday, but look man, they, they, they, they are short enough on people that he might just kind of work his way back into things [laughs] like playing re- playing real minutes.
31:24
I think that's what's going on right there. So, and you know, we had this discussion on Friday, and at that time Luka was sitting at, like, six to one I think he was, seven to one.
31:32
So look, you wanna buy on the drift on Luka just because Jokic is back in. He can only miss two more games. I get it. I'm just not as high on the Lakers as some people, man.
31:40
I, I, like, I don't, I don't think they're finishing with the two, three seed, which I think is probably what you need to be talking about here, uh, for Luka to get some attention.
31:49
I, Ca- Cade Cunningham, Jaylen Brown deserve to be in this conversation just with what Cade's done leading the Pistons, uh, likely to the one seed in the East.
31:57
And Jaylen Brown, look, you, you can sit here and say he's taking a million shots a game, so you know, he's gonna score the ball, but with, I, I mean, with no Tatum, just him jumping in and being able to, uh, steer the Celtics team, I, I think to an incredible season so far.
32:11
This is not what I was expecting out of this team. I think you can make a great case for him. Um, then we heard some of the long shots. I think Ma- you know, Tyrese Maxey, Donovan Mitchell, these guys have a case.
32:20
They have a case, and if we, you, you get to that next group down, they definitely belong in the conversation. But it's one way of me going, Gil, of just going right back to what I said on Friday.
32:28
It's just, it's, I understand why you wanna make another bet a- and look somewhere else from SGA for multiple reasons. I just don't know what, who that guy is. Yeah. Nobody, nobody leaps off the screen.
32:40
I mean, look, I hope Nikola Jokic somehow wins this thing, but I, I don't... I think five to one's a terrible number for you to bet into right now. With, with just the two-game margin of error?
32:49
Well, two, two- Absolutely... two-game margin of error, plus, like, what are we doing? We're comparing these two cases right now? One guy's missed, like, 18 more games- Yeah... than the other. Yeah. I, I...
32:57
And if that's the case at the end of the season, I think Shay wins it walking away. Chris Patrick, "How about Timmy Smith? Go Redskins." Timmy Smith still holds the record for most rushing yards in a Super Bowl.
33:08
Gained over 200 yards. I wanna say it was 206 or 204. Can't remember which one. He didn't win the MVP. Doug Williams did. Doug Williams, who engineered famously a 35-point- Yeah, there you go... second quarter.
33:20
35-point second quarter, and at the time was a very historic win as well.
33:25
Uh, Justin D, "Sorry if I missed, uh, part of it, but Joe Flacco was still on his rookie contract when he won the Super Bowl, still part of the formula." Oh yeah, you're right. Joe Flacco did. Pardon me.
33:34
I'm incorrect on that. Joe Flacco did, was on the rookie, was on the rookie salary before he signed the big deal. That's right. So Joe Flacco is not an exception. So that holds true still.
33:45
Um, 3JackH3131, "Preach on about Jaylen Brown, Kelly. Have pizza money. 275 to 1 for MVP." He's awesome.
33:53
And, and look, I think there's a lot of us in the NBA community too, and if, if you wa- anybody who just watches the NBA has an opinion on this, right? Are you now in the NBA community? Is that what you're saying?
34:01
Oh, yeah, sure. I'm gonna, I'm gonna do that. Where's that located? Yeah, you're allowed in it. Oh, thanks. You wanna come in? You're we- you're- You gotta give me directions... welcome in, man. He- you're here. Thanks.
34:07
You're inside the NBA community. [laughs] Yeah. Like, you know, the argument that we had for years, Gil, and then kind of moved away from the past couple years of this Tatum versus Brown thing, right?
34:17
Like, that was a real thing a few years ago. Yes, it was. And I thought Jaylen Brown, uh, it was a little too unfairly just the team given to Jayson Tatum. Also didn't think they could coexist for a while.
34:25
I totally thought that was the case. Yeah. Did not think they were gonna be able to coexist. And, and then, like, but I gotta give some respect to Tatum.
34:31
I think over the past couple years he proved to be a much better player than I really thought he was gonna end up being. But now you're, you're seeing Jaylen Brown get a turn here, and he's playing some great ball.
34:42
Yala had two breaks apparently, gave 'em right back is what I'm being told. Yep. Women's tennis, everybody. On serve again, Yala and Sasnovich. First set 5-4 Yala currently. We'll come back, we'll recap all the bets.
34:56
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:58
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35:19
Numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Majestic downtown Las Vegas. Hey, don't forget about this annual subscription big game special offer we gots going on. Look at that. See that $240, Kelly?
35:32
What do you call that one again? The slash. Slash. [laughs] Kelly go- It's Kelly's favorite part. Dude, slash. Uh, down from $240 to $180.
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36:21
Y'all are the best. Brandon Webb blurting out, "Break," Gil blurting out, "Break," mid Kelly Bidlin breakdown is prime a numbers game. You got it, man. And Alexander Yala does break again and wins the first set 6-4
36:35
Everybody thinking they had the final score. What are you doing? Yeah, that is a, that's a great tweet. That is, that is a- [laughs]... some primetime action feel right there. Break. Break.
36:43
[laughs] Rhodes- What are you two talking about? [laughs] Rhodes Knows on Twitter, "Hey, uh, is the NBA community near the Dr. Pepper Fansville on the ESPN First Take room?" [laughs] It's right down the street, yeah.
36:54
I was gonna say- Oh, man... Kelly's like, "Yeah, those of us in the NBA community." Like where, where's that located? And how do I get there? Dr. Pepper, Baby. You heard that yet? No, I still haven't. Oh, my God.
37:07
It's fantastic. Here are the bets again. Uh, I am on the Seahawks minus four versus the Patriots. Again, I thought it would soar in the other direction. My knee-jerk to the four and a half was get four.
37:17
Not really something I do normally, but I did, so I'm just letting you know I did it. Minus four, minus 128 as we talked about last week. Waiting to see if that money line gets muted, but I don't feel like it will. Yeah.
37:26
I agree with Wes. It feels like it's going to drift upward now slowly, and then that money line will not be as muted as one would want.
37:34
Do you think, I said this last week, I can't remember- It'll still be muted, but relatively speaking. Right. Yeah. I can't remember if you said this too, but, uh, do you think we see a six?
37:43
I'm starting to think that we might. I'm kind of back to that. I think by the end of last week I was like, "Nah, I don't know if we're gonna get there." Yeah. I actually thought we'd see it last week more.
37:53
Um, but I, I think there's still a chance. Truth is, I have no idea. Yeah. Uh, the other bets again, I get Alexandra Yalla this morning at minus 107 as given to, uh, VSIN subscribers last night.
38:04
She's up a set now in the early going against Zeynep Sönmez of Turkey. And, uh, tonight, and I have not submitted this as, as one of my picks, might be my only one, might be one of, of, of more.
38:15
I'm on Lila Fernandez tonight against, uh, Kessler, McCartney Kessler. McCartney Kessler, by the way. McCartney Kessler. There's a country club name if I've ever- Yeah, yeah, that one belongs.
38:23
McCartney Kessler, I'm on Lila. Country club community. I'm on Lila Fernandez, the Canadian, um, to beat McCartney Kessler at her like, I think minus 125 is my number, minus 123. We'll see what the number is here.
38:36
Um, but it's right in that pocket right now. You, sir. Yes. Super Bowl, no NBA tonight yet for me. Um, just to recap, looking at Sixers and Timberwolves, we're probably just gonna live bet those, uh, tonight.
38:50
So NFL, Seahawks, I did lay five and a half yesterday, sold out to 102 on that one, and then Seahawks, eh, nothing. I feel like I need to say this, Gil. None of these big though again. Like this is all playoffs, man.
39:02
Yeah. I, I really haven't had anything big. The Seahawks six to one getting home for the NFC was great, but none of these game bets have been too big for me. Eh, whatever, wanted to spread it around.
39:09
Five and a half, laid the nine and a half alt at plus 190, and then played the first quarter at plus 110.
39:16
I was, I saw, uh, Adam write that up yesterday, and then just kinda shopping around for very different prices out there right now, uh, if you are looking to bet first quarter. So just make sure you do your shopping.
39:26
Uh, here laid half a point with the Seahawks first quarter plus 110, and then Drake May over 33 and a half rushing yards. All right. That's Kelly Bidlin. Wes Reynolds was on earlier. Guess what? He's on Idaho State.
39:38
Idaho State plus six and a half, uh, earlier on the show.
39:41
And Adam Burke, um, going HBCU on Howard here, uh, with Coppin State over 146 and a half, and then he's on New Orleans minus two and a half against East Texas A&M.
39:55
By the way, to his joke, if, if you, if you told me these two teams were playing tonight, I would not believe it, it is a real one. Uh, East Texas A&M and what was the other one that I, uh, isolated?
40:07
And Houston Christian. Houston Christian. Mm-hmm. That was the match-up. I'd be like, "These aren't, these aren't schools." Never heard of them. What a great country, by the way.
40:15
We just have college basketball going tonight with like schools we've barely heard of. Well, you know, we never talk about this before, but you know, like we're very geocentric as we should be. We grew up here.
40:22
We love, we love the US. We love everything about our sports and betting and all that, but we're like the only country that has amateur athletics like this. Yeah. That's cool.
40:32
Where w- Ron Flatter could tell you the historical reasons for this, but I think it had something to do with the fact that there was such geographical distance between places that
40:44
sports became a uniting thing with academic institutions. The fact that we had a lot of academic institutions so early in the country's history, late 1700s, early 1800s, and it just sprouted from there.
40:55
And so there's no other country like this. Yeah. Like, you know, East Russia Tech is not taking on- [laughs]... Southwest Russia State later today. Right, yeah. It's not happening. You know?
41:05
No, it's, uh, it's not happening. I mean, you have the, the European pro leagues have done a great job. That's where a lot, most of the kids- Yeah... are playing.
41:11
You know, if you're playing basketball, right, you're playing in the pro leagues. Right. Um, but yeah, it is interesting. Yeah. And now you get Real Madrid and those guys.
41:20
Later this week, by the way, uh, we will try to effort some, uh, folks. I don't know if R- Rufus is heading to the Waste Management, uh, tournaments.
41:28
I'm not sure if we're gonna get Rufus on the Mega Potter on ANG, but, uh, usually he, this is his time of year with, uh, Super Bowl props. But even he says with his Super Bowl props, remember his evolution.
41:37
By the way, Rufus Peabody may be the most famous bettor of his generation who really, um, cut his teeth, if you will, on Super Bowl props before he was associated with golf or anything else, right?
41:49
Even he now with Super Bowl props, whereas he used to bet a lot of it early, he is an under bettor primarily. So he waits. Yeah. Most of his stuff is done the Saturday and morning of the Super Bowl.
42:03
I, dude, I'll tell you the, uh, I, y- we were laughing about the May rushing prop. The other one that I feel like I've seen a lot of, a lot of bets on is the Kenneth Walker under. Kenneth Walker under.
42:13
And that's moved like five yards. Also a lot of like Rhamondre and, uh, Treveyon catches and- Yep, I've heard those, yeah... over-unders on those. People seem to gravitate to it. Was, Kenneth Walker was under rushing?
42:25
Yeah, it was rushing yards. Well, the New England defense, I mean, the one thing that is unassailable about this New England team, regardless of what I or anyone else wanna say about
42:35
s- 16th easiest schedule of any team to make the playoffs per DVOA, third easiest schedule of all time since 1978 Um, 16th, 16th worst team, pardon me. 16th worst, worst team to make the Super Bowl since 1978.
42:50
Third easiest schedules since 1978, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But that run defense has been great. Yeah, they got a top-notch rush defense. Yeah. All right, what else we wanna do this week, Gil?
42:59
I'm gonna do Gatorade color again at some point, my normal b- rant on that. You missed the national anthem last week. I did miss that. Yeah. We doing a halftime show, or you not doing a halftime show?
43:07
I just, I, I have recused myself from Bad Bunny. You know what I don't get about this halftime show?
43:12
I feel like I don't remember a year like this where I've heard, like, you either know Bad Bunny or you don't know Bad Bunny.
43:19
But I'm like, I don't- Al- also, I mean, b- back to Fezzik's point about the coin toss, you know, we, you can, again, you can prattle on about some of these things for two weeks, but the bottom line in terms of, like, betting success,
43:32
figure out that s- they, they leak that set list- Mm-hmm... Friday or Saturday right before the Super Bowl. Yeah, you're gonna see big movement on that, right?
43:40
And you will see the movement immediately, and that movement is always right, right? That's, that's insider movement, and you should...
43:48
You, you're probably better off betting Bad Bunny's first song that way, or last song, or whatever it is that you're betting, than any other way, than trying to sort of figure it out on your own.
43:59
Just the, that's just the truth. That's how it's been the last few years. Though, Will Hill made a point, I believe it was Will, that they are s- the NFL is sensitive to that leakage now.
44:09
So maybe- As they should be, yeah... maybe there's, maybe that gets stifled this year. We'll see. [smacks lips] Uh, notes from the Hardwood Handicappers, uh, text group.
44:17
[smacks lips] Zach let me know about this about 20 minutes ago. Bulls down to plus 275 to get Giannis over at DraftKings. Oh, boy.
44:26
At Calci, current odds are minus 133 stays with Milwaukee, plus 488 he goes to Golden State. Miami and Chicago both 733. And they were 13 to 1- Yeah... when we talked about it earlier.
44:39
And then we drift down to New York at 24 to 1. But again, Calci moves with every single bet. Right? Yeah, I guess DraftKings hanging in too. They're even shorter. Yep. Man, the Bulls come out of nowhere and grab him.
44:51
That would be crazy. They're the one team I haven't understood this whole time. Well, I mean, if... And if that happens, w- so what are, what are we supposed to think about it? Like, "Oh, great. The Bulls have Giannis.
45:00
Great." That's b- it's boring. Like, like Zach points out, it's a big market, which is true, but like, I don't... Like, he's,
45:06
never really heard him talk about the Chicago Bulls at all when he's talked about some of these other big teams. You'll see, yeah, very, very changed since we talked about them earlier, but there it is at, uh, at Calci.
45:16
Bulls now, is that a current 19 to 1 at Calci? No, no, no. Oh, no. That's, that's the old price. 7 to 1. They're like 7 to 1. 7 to 1 at Calci. Okay. So there's that.
45:24
You can bet on those in prediction markets, and, uh, God bless the prediction markets. Yeah. Except for when Trevor Norris says potato when he knows there's- Yeah, what?
45:31
If someone needed to rip the Band-Aid, like this is- Yeah... i- if you're gonna let people bet on this, we're gonna get this, boys. Yeah. So listen, sometimes the insider information manifests.
45:39
Sometimes, like with Miami making the, uh, college football playoff, it does not, right? It was 7% right before the announcement. So it doesn't always- Yep... come down to insider trading.
45:49
We shall see if that Bulls move means something or not. We've done all we can do. Prop Boys with John Hanson is next. Enjoy from VisiV, sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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