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Feb 6, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 6, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 6, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:36
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. How about Sirius XM channel 158? However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:22
This is Kelly Bidlin. A little two-finger wave. Mm-hmm. Live from Circa Resort, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Oh, what a day it is. Let's get this going. 72 hours now, is that correct?
0:33
Yes, 72 hours plus before Super Bowl LIX. Uh, Bill Krackomberger will be here of course, unscripted on a Thursday. Still is the Zach and Krack Show, uh, at its heart on Thursday.
0:43
Zach Cohen will be the first part of that Zach and Krack part, VSiN senior editor. He'll give his thoughts on Super Bowl LIX. He'll talk, uh, some NBA with us, which we'll talk momentarily, sir- [laughs]... about.
0:55
Uh, maybe some tennis plays from Zach coming up. Uh, Miles Garrett, Cooper Kupp next team. Yep. We can look into that 'cause there are odds posted.
1:03
And Mike Pritchard, national champion of the University of Colorado, a former NFL wide receiver, and all around great guy, uh, friend of VSiN, um, he will join us to give his thoughts on Super Bowl LIX from the player's perspective.
1:16
What, are you making hand signals to folks back there? Yeah. Yeah. Waving, waving folks around, yeah? [laughs] Is that, is that the first time I've ever distracted you with that? [laughs] Uh, yeah, kind of.
1:23
Um, so here's the deal, but before we get to all that, tonight, again, a special reminder here from the Numbers Game, tonight is NFL awards night. Let's go. Let's go. Come on. Let's cash some tickets. Um, it is a...
1:36
The only question is, after the, you know, Jayden Daniels is going to be the offensive rookie of the year, so it's going to be a winning night no matter what.
1:41
But can we do the Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Kenny Ella- Let's go... Lamar Jackson for MVP? Let's go. This is absolutely right.
1:49
I, I, uh, yeah, you and I will be eagerly awaiting those, uh, results, and, um, I, I, I, I stand by what I've said multiple times ever since I made the bet.
1:57
No matter what happens with Comeback Player of the Year tonight, I'm going to be furious. [laughs] Joe Burrow wins, I win money, but I should have bet way more, or some other ridiculous human being wins.
2:07
So there's, there's a little Numbers Game tradition. It's a VSiN plus, plus, p- plus thing. But we, we didn't really know that we had this tradition- Mm-hmm...
2:13
until we figured out in retrospect, oh my God, this is becoming a tradition. We're supposed to go to dinner. Yes. Uh, it's, it's me, you, and it, it was Matt Brown, as, you know, last year, with Aaron Schatz.
2:24
Aaron Schatz, uh, the creator of DVOA and the, uh, now is at FTN, but was the creator of Football Outsiders. Last year we were at dinner, the four of us, as the NFL awards were being announced. Why is that significant?
2:35
Because Aaron is one of the 50 award, uh, voters, and he learned that Lamar Jackson was winning the MVP, but the other detail given was one short of a unanimous vote. Aaron knew that he was responsible for that.
2:54
And so for, what, about five minutes at dinner, he spiraled into depression. He really did, for five minutes, 'cause he was like, "Oh my God, what's gonna...
3:02
Once people find out it's me, good God, they're gonna be angry at me. Maybe even Lamar himself." Yeah. Now, Lamar let him off the hook. Lamar was cool with it. He was, yeah.
3:10
But he did take a lot of incoming from people with, with a lot of really, can, can I be quite honest, embarrassing sort of accusations, and it was, it, it hurt him for a little bit.
3:20
Um, but- It, it was an awkward few moments at dinner. It was awkward. There's no, there's no doubt about that. It was awkward. And- It's where alcohol helps out, you know?
3:25
So, so we're making this a tradition where we're gonna go out to dinner and we're gonna FaceTime Aaron in. [laughs] Is what we're gonna do. Well, it's like we're going out to dinner tonight- But tonight...
3:32
but, like, we didn't really plan on it. No, we didn't know it was during the awards. We didn't put two and two together, and once Gil and I finally did yesterday, it was like, well, we gotta get Aaron- We gotta-...
3:40
involved somehow because- Gotta get Aaron... we gotta get Lamar home.
3:42
He once, he did sort of quip at one of his appearances on this show earlier this year, he goes, "Watch me be the only person that votes for, uh, Lamar this year, and everybody else will vote for Josh Allen."
3:54
So I don't, I don't think that's gonna happen, but he was just sort of saying, "Can you imagine if I became the reason two years in a row that someone- Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah... wasn't unanimous?"
4:00
I don't think we'll have anything close to unanimous on that tonight. Uh, so we look forward to awards being announced.
4:05
That begins at 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific, when the awards are announced, uh, National Football League AP Awards tonight.
4:13
And thank goodness, uh, thank you to football for not extending it in the way that baseball does, where we would've had to await, the equivalent would've been we would had to wait, had to have w- waited into March for some of these to be announced.
4:24
I, I, it, I'm glad you brought that up though as well, because the, the, as you've, uh, p- picked up on, the, the kinda tells and giveaways with, with MLB with who's, who's making announcements- Oh, yeah. Yeah...
4:36
and stuff, it's not the same thing with the NFL. No. I don't know about you. I got a whole lot of tweets yesterday.
4:40
I know we brought it up on the show, but, like, just if, if you're seeing guys on media row or down there in New Orleans, I have no idea, Gil, like, who all shows up for this award show. Yeah. We don't really know that.
4:52
I, I would assume a lot, most of the finalists are there. So I, just because you see one guy doesn't mean he's gonna win an award for sure.
4:59
Also, baseball figured out that we were leveling that criticism, not just us, but m- a lot of people. Everybody. [laughs] And so they sort of adjusted for it this past year.
5:06
Um, well, let's see if we can't make a futures bet or if there's a futures bet to make in the National Basketball Association. Obviously can't make those anymore for the, uh, N- for the NFL awards tonight.
5:15
But as far as, uh, teams, did this trade trigger any bets? Big trade in the, uh, NBA. Not quite in the Luka Dončić, Anthony Davis stratosphere of big trades, but, and maybe you don't think this is a big trade.
5:28
Maybe it's just kinda ho-hum. The Warriors and the Heat, the, uh, the biggest, uh, players in this one. The Warriors get Jimmy Butler. Do they get playoff Jimmy with Jimmy Butler? Only time will tell.
5:39
Warriors gotta get there first, and then we'll see if Jimmy But- or playoff Jimmy shows up in the postseason.
5:43
But the Warriors get Jimmy Butler, which really honestly is probably the, the best outcome that both the Warriors and the Heat could have expected at this point.
5:53
Warriors, uh, I think it was kinda underrated how they needed to make Steph happy. Yeah. Steph was kinda starting to talk a little bit. Can't have that civic treasure unhappy in, in the Bay.
6:04
So they get Jimmy Butler from the Heat. The Heat in return get Andrew Wiggins, who as a Dubs guy I've always had a soft spot for. He was a key cog in their last championship. Andrew Wiggins goes to the Heat. P.J.
6:15
Tucker, uh, via Utah- I believe he's 74 years old. Let me check on, I'm being told he's 39 years old. Yeah, but there's a- BJ Tucker goes to the Heat.
6:24
Kyle Anderson, also from the Warriors to the Heat, and a protected first round from the Warriors to the Heat, which is a top 10 protected pick, which you would assume, and you know what they say about assuming, but you would assume would convey to the Heat, unless the Warriors just go completely into the, uh, into the crapper on that one.
6:39
Pistons also involved. They get Lindy Water, they get Josh Richardson.
6:42
Jazz end up with the Warriors with the previous, uh, the former Warrior, Dennis Schroeder, in this, in this, uh, multi-team trade, what ends up being a multi-team trade.
6:51
Schroeder never really worked out in his brief time with the Dubs. So the question becomes, now the Warriors go down. This is like, you know, the move from a betting market standpoint. NBA title 40 to 1 to 30 to 1.
7:03
You know how this works. Western Conference kind of chop that in half. Um, I guess my question to you, Kelly, is, is this: Is that the proper way to couch this?
7:13
That the Warriors, the, the, what the Warriors get out of this is the best they could have done. KD said in the end, "I'm not interested in going there."
7:20
That was probably their, their biggest, their first choice, at least in the recent days. They end up with Butler. Butler does s- uh, sign an extension through, um, a two-year extension- Mm-hmm... for, for $121 million.
7:33
So he'll be, let's put it this way, Butler will be happy at least through next year. After that, all bets are off.
7:39
[laughs] Best case scenario for the Warriors, they get to the playoffs, then they get playoff Jimmy, and you can't possibly want to play a Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler team in a best of seven, especially if you're a young team.
7:54
That's best case for the Warriors. For the Heat, ah, win one playoff series maybe. Yeah. I, I, I mean, look, this is, the, the biggest story here is the trade that didn't happen, right?
8:07
The fact that Kevin Durant possibly was gonna get traded and was gonna get involved, and it really sounded like it was gonna be a three-team deal between Warriors, Heat, uh, and the Suns yesterday for, for a very long time.
8:18
It go-- And Kevin Durant said he didn't wanna go play for the Warriors, and then it all got, uh, changed from there.
8:23
So I think the Heat had kinda bought into the whole idea of Andrew Wiggins all along, so very quickly pivoted to, "Okay, fine, we'll just talk to the Warriors then, um, get it back." I think you broke it down well.
8:33
Like this is a, this is a trade I, I, I, I know we're, if we're gonna compare everything to Luka Dončić's trade standards these days [laughs]- Oh, yeah, nothing, nothing moves the needle anymore...
8:40
yeah, this is gonna be really boring, but like- Yeah... this is probably pretty good for both teams. Um, I, I think it's way more interesting on the Golden State side.
8:48
Yes, you're gonna have Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green out there.
8:51
I mean, just from a kinda comical side of it, like are those two going to be best friends and bash brothers from like the Mighty Ducks, or are they gonna kill each other within a month? I don't know.
9:00
Like that, that could happen, [laughs] with the...
9:03
But like you said, you get into the playoffs, the type of, the veterans they have on that team mixed with some of the yout- uh, with, with the young talent, I, that could be a, that could be a tough, tough out in the Western Conference.
9:13
And for the Heat, you had to move on. You had to move on. You, you, you didn't get garbage back. You got something back for J- uh, for Jimmy Butler.
9:21
The Heat achieved their biggest thing, which is no contracts taken on beyond next year. Correct. And they get a first round pick back. That's right. Yeah.
9:29
So because they want a clean slate for a big free agent after next season. Mm-hmm. That's their biggest thing. Mm-hmm.
9:34
I do think, I mean, and then this is the, this is the Bay Area part of me talking, I, I would, I would offer for sure to an extent, but it is, uh, with the exception of the Thunder, 'cause I think the Thunder's talent, especially if we get Chet back, right?
9:47
Uh, I think the Thunder's talent is so overwhelming that this might not matter. But maybe, I don't know, maybe it, it, if it got to that, it would be amazing.
9:53
But I do think that if the Warriors got in, and by the way, uh, the Warriors, the Suns, all these teams like are in a play-in situation right at this moment. Yeah. Um, betting odds aside. But if the Warriors got in,
10:06
if you're Houston, if you're Memphis, you know, do you really wanna play that team? Oh, no, not at all. Yeah. Hells no. Like that team would be terrifying at that point. Um, 'cause we've seen it so many times.
10:19
I mean, can you think of three better basketball minds than Butler- Well-... Draymond, and Steph on a court at the same time?
10:25
And that's what, I mean, that's the, uh, for everybody who wants to bring up Jimmy Butler and, and, and, you know, bad, horrible stats this year, I mean, some of the worst of his career and everything like that, the, I think he's a perfect fit for how Steve Kerr has always wanted to run that offense, and it requires- Zeke...
10:40
requires a lot of cerebral basketball players like a Jimmy Butler, who is a genius on a basketball court and is going to fit into that very well.
10:48
Well, I think, I think the biggest thing is when Steph is not on the court. When Steph is on the court, the Warriors are still a great offensive team. As soon as Steph gets on the bench, they, they crater. Mm-hmm.
11:00
And so now you have the option of having this totally different look- Yeah... with Jimmy Butler as the focal point. This is just me talking. I don't know what they're thinking.
11:09
But that to me is also the, the sneaky thing here of this, where it's like, "Oh, now we have this team." No- "This is an odd Warriors look." Yeah, you're probably right. Yeah.
11:17
You, you probably are gonna see a lot of Jimmy on there when, when, uh, uh, when Steph is off the court. I don't, I expect the Warriors aren't done today either.
11:24
I, I think they are, do wanna add a little bit more shooting. There might be a small trade or two, but they need a little bit more shooting with Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green on that, uh, roster.
11:31
I haven't made a bet here on the Warriors in any way, but it's awfully tempting. I think I, I think I'm getting close to one in the West on a different team, Gil. Oh.
11:39
And Zach Cohen I think has something to say about it too. Okay. Good tease. Zach Cohen on the other side. Man, but at least playoff series bet on the Warriors, I would love to see what those prices are gonna be.
11:49
Zach's on the other side. That's next. Super Bowl as well. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:03
Right now you can check out articles like, l- hey, listen to this one, Brent Musburger's Super Bowl 59 pick. Let's go. [laughs] Let's go. Super Bowl licks pick from the Godfather, Brent Musburger.
12:13
Steve Makinen, Super Bowl analytics report. That is always fascinating when Makinen, uh, jumps in with that. Greg Peterson, not to be outdone with his college basketball best bets.
12:21
Also coming up today, Zach Cohen's best NBA props and picks. If only we had Zach around, we could ask him about that stuff. Jonathan Davis' best bets in the NHL, Adam Burke's best bets in college hoops.
12:31
To get access to all the articles on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for $59 off an annual subscription with promo code ANG. ANG as in A Numbers Game. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
12:44
Skill Alexander, that's Kelly Midland. Zach Cohen does join us right now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Of course, you can follow Zach on Twitter at bettingonx.
12:53
Not betting on Twitter, bettingonx, 'cause the kids call it X. He is our s- he's our VSiN senior editor. How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. Been a, an exciting week with all these NBA trades.
13:03
I'm excited to talk about them. Well, so Kelly, off air, before you got on, and we saved this for you 'cause I wanna hear about it, so, so couch it how, give the story about how Zach called in.
13:12
No, I'll tell you, Zach, so in the, in the legendary Hardwood Handicappers text, uh, group, okay? Sure. Zach texted me something a- and it was specifically for me, because he had said it on air last night with JVT.
13:22
Uh-oh. He said, he says, "Kelly, I ju- I just said blank on air to JVT." Yeah. "And I bel- you know, I think I believe it." My eyes rolled so hard b- [laughs]...
13:33
in the back of my head I thought they were gonna fall out of the back of my head, and then I watched about 45 minutes of basketball last night and I was like, "This Zach Cohen might be onto something here." All right.
13:43
He might be onto something. All right, Zach, what was your outlandish remark that Kelly eventually got around to?
13:48
Yeah, so the, the, I gave out the Spurs at 100 to 1 to win the Western Conference, and I pretty much said that I believe that this team, there's a really good chance they're the second-best team in the Western Conference now on paper, and really just have to hope that they don't face the Thunder in the first round, because you'll like their chances in any other series.
14:04
And I think that we saw quickly last night against the Hawks, obviously not a great opponent, but this is gonna be a really, really good team offensively, and I think that they're going to be better and better defensively as they kinda figure out the rotation.
14:16
Spurs not even in the play-in, where the playoffs are to start, should start right now, or the play-in games to start right now. They are the outside looking in.
14:22
But I do, I mean, I do think that that is not an uncommon takeaway from all of these trades, including the Butler trade yesterday, the, to the Dubs, including Luka to the Lakers, uh, in the AD trade, that De'Aaron Fox to the Spurs might be the single most impactful in terms of at least moving a needle for a team, which I guess is what you're saying.
14:42
Yeah, I think so. I mean, obviously I- I'm really high on the Lakers after this morning.
14:46
I, I think that, you know, the Luka trade on its own did not move me that much, but getting Mark Williams and solidifying the center position with a very good athlete, a very good play finisher, and a player that I believe has more to offer defensively than we've seen in Charlotte, and, you know, there are reasons for him to play better defensively outside of Charlotte.
15:02
I, I think that that's going to be a, a very good team moving forward.
15:06
Uh, and I think that the Lakers did themselves a lot of favors by playing kinda well, you know, while guys were injured, and they're now fifth in the Western Conference as opposed to, you know, like the Spurs being in the play-in tournament.
15:16
Uh, they are in pretty good shape in the standings. So there's definitely some room for them to make a run as well. Yeah, Lakers needed a large human. They got their large human in Mark, uh, Williams. Mm-hmm. Yep.
15:25
And took him Dalton connect, though, to get him, along with Cam Reddish, a 2031 unprotected first, and a 2030 pick swap. Man, we're already trading 2030s. Yes, the, uh- Oh my God...
15:35
the joke this morning is that, uh, they traded more for Mark Williams than Luka Dončić, but- Yeah, yeah. [laughs]... I'm not gonna go that route... that is the, the proper- Leaving out a top 10 player in the NBA...
15:43
proper joke to make, although not true. That's right. Uh, anything in the NBA tonight, sir?
15:49
Yeah, so I have the Mavericks plus 10 and a half against the Celtics tonight, and I believe Anthony Davis is playing, which is why I feel pretty good about grabbing double digits with Dallas.
15:59
I think the Celtics team, uh, this season's 12 and 18 against the spread as a favorite of 10 or more, and just a team that has not really been reliable as a big favorite all year long. Uh, Dallas might not have P.J.
16:10
Washington again. I actually believe that might be confirmed, but this is still a team that I think is going to be very good defensively. I think they're going to be able to slow down the Celtics a bit offensively.
16:19
We'll see what it looks like, but I thought that Max Christie played really well in his Mavericks debut. I think he's a really good spot-up shooter.
16:25
Putting him and Klay next to Kyrie is going to do some good things for them on the offensive end of the floor, and yeah, I just think it's gonna be a closer game than, than double digits.
16:33
Anything in tennis real quick before we get to the Super Bowl? Uh, only one that hasn't started yet. I have Ana Bogdan, uh, to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto. Uh, that's a match that is being played in Romania.
16:44
Bogdan is Romanian. [laughs] I told Kelly I was gonna stump him with a name. I said- [laughs]... Bogdan's handsome. Uh- He's very upset... Cocciaretto- Kelly's getting very angry... Cocciaretto's a player that is...
16:54
Yeah. [laughs] She's, uh, an aggressive player, but could be highly erratic, and has been erratic to start the season. Just one and three in 2025, has not been serving very well.
17:03
Uh, Bogdan is a very good defensive player, baseline, uh, playing at home. I just kinda think she's gonna do a really good job of, you know, forcing errors out of Cocciaretto. Yeah.
17:12
That's a ni- that's the nicest name in, uh, women's tennis, Elisabetta Cocciaretto. Yeah. [laughs] Good luck. I could, I would've been okay with that one. Yeah. I pul- I found it. Yeah, good luck with that.
17:19
I think I've, I think I could've pronounced it close. Super Bowl LIX, Zach. Super Bowl LIX, a little more than 72 hours away now. Remind us how you're betting this on the side and/or total first.
17:31
Yeah, so I grabbed Eagles money line at plus 114 very early in the process, and I have now since added, I guess, a little bit of, you know, props that kinda solidify my position on Philadelphia.
17:43
I, I think that this is a game that the Eagles very much can win. I k- I know that there's the Patrick Mahomes factor.
17:49
It's very scary, but I do believe that Philadelphia is a better team on both sides of the ball, and I think that, you know, seeing Hurts play as well as he did against the Commanders kind of alleviated some of my, you know, doubts about them.
18:00
I, I was kinda low on him heading into that game after the Rams game, but, you know, he looked healthier. He made the right throws, and now I just kinda think that they're gonna take care of business.
18:08
I, I, I think that this, uh, a game that obviously a lot of people have this, but Dallas Goedert, uh, should have a big game.
18:14
I, I took over 47 and a half receiving yards, and I also took to lead the game in receiving yards at plus 150. Now, the Dallas Goedert props have to be the, the s- just anecdotally, the most popularly played, I think.
18:27
Yeah. Um- I, I think that it was the most popular over Yeah. Um, okay, anything else prop-wise besides the ones you've mentioned? Yeah.
18:34
So I added, uh, Jahan Dotson to have over one, over 0.5 receptions after reading Bill's, uh, VSiN Daily Newsletter submission. I thought that that guy made a really good case.
18:43
If you have not subscribed to the newsletter, it's free. You should definitely do so. I also took Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception at plus 104.
18:51
I believe that this Eagles secondary has started to make some real strides.
18:55
Uh, they have four takeaways in the post-season, and that's been a big part of my handicap, is that group of corners has just been so good over the last eight or nine weeks that I think that they're gonna make some plays in this game.
19:05
Uh, I asked this yesterday of Matt Brown when he was in studio. I'm just curious. This is more of a sports talky, uh, question, but I, but I am, I'm always curious about, like, historical perspective on this.
19:14
The Patriots obviously won six Super Bowls, Tom Brady himself seven, but Patriots won six of these. This would be the Chiefs' fourth victory, fifth appearance, fourth victory with Patrick Mahomes.
19:27
Uh, most famously, it would be their third straight, and no team has ever won three in a row. It's only the fourth team ever in the Super Bowl era to get to three Super Bowls in a row.
19:37
But this would be the first team to ever win three in a row. If the Chiefs do win this, does that three in a row trump everything to you?
19:46
I think so, and I think it would, would go a really long way in making Mahomes potentially the greatest quarterback of all time, unless we see, like, a Russell Wilson drop-off where you go from a legend to a player that's not even in the, in the Hall of Fame.
19:57
But I, I, I think that what we've seen out of Mahomes with the supporting cast that he's had that has gotten weaker and weaker by the year, uh, it would definitely solidify him as, as an all-time great, which we already know he is, but I think it'd put him on Brady's territory.
20:10
And yeah, I, I think the three in a row, w- given what we've seen, the teams that they've had to play, I think, you know, these 49ers teams have been awesome.
20:18
I, I, I think that it would be very, very impressive if they had to see. Yeah.
20:21
The, the only other thing, and, and not to recycle this question also from, from our talk with Matt yesterday, but it, it does, for everybody who has the Eagles, and really just from our guests this week, and I w- I probably am gonna say it's a reflection of network-wide, this seems very evenly split on which way people are going here between the Eagles and Chiefs, and the spread reflects that, that it ought to be that way.
20:41
But to those who have the Eagles, who make great cases, by the way, I'm not, I'm not in any way disparaging it. I'm on the Chiefs side, but I totally get the Eagles' standpoint.
20:49
I'm even the one that says that even though I have the Chiefs, I think a, a more likelier blowout is the Eagles authoring that blowout.
20:56
However, I do al- I, I find this part fascinating, which is, you know, we learned the lesson last year that no matter how good the Ravens or the Niners were, right?
21:05
Aaron Schatz had them two of the best 10 teams of all time DVOA, back, uh, since 1979. That if Mahomes somehow wins this again, what is the degree of self-loathing of Eagles backers here?
21:17
Like, to the point where how many times do you have to see it before it finally gets into your, into your skull kind of thing? Do you think about that at all?
21:28
I know that if I lose this, I'm just going to feel like, whatever, it's my fault. I mean, I, I, last year, I ended up making the right decision in backing the Chiefs over the 49ers.
21:38
The reason I went to the Eagles this year is I just think that they're a little bit better than that 49ers team was, and I think the Chiefs are a little bit worse.
21:45
Honestly, I think that, that, that Saquon Barkley drop on fourth and five early in the season, I think we'd be having really different conversations about this Philadelphia team in a lot of different ways.
21:54
I think that Sirianni would've been Coach of the Year candidate. I think that we would've looked at the Eagles as a favorite, uh, all year long over the Lions. I just think this is a very, very good team.
22:04
I'm, I'm happy to, you know, to say I'm wrong if I lose it, but I do think that they are the better football team.
22:08
By the way, I mean, I should say this, and I, I, I wanna be fair to Eagles, not only backers, but fans and those who have Eagles and futures.
22:14
If they win, it's two Super Bowls in three years and a Super Bowl title, and they have to, you, you know, start thinking about the Eagles in a different realm- Mm-hmm...
22:21
for sure at that point, so I don't wanna, I don't wanna take that away from them.
22:24
I, I think this is fascinating from every perspective, and then, you know, if it's in the middle of a window on a regular NFL week, I don't know if any of us play it, but it is the Super Bowl, so we all are in multiple ways.
22:33
Zach always appreciate it. Spurs 100 to 1 to win the West. To win the West, correct? From Zach Cone. Yep, to win the West. Yeah, he didn't, he didn't get that crazy. [laughs] He got cra- he got crazy to a point.
22:45
Uh, we'll come back. Myles Garrett, Cooper Kupp, where are they gonna end up next? You can bet on it. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:53
Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback. How are we going a half hour and not read any tweets? What's wrong with me? Steve the Proxy, "A great call on Kruger last night, Gil.
24:03
Got her at plus 135 and won a full two units when I saw it was hard court outdoor. Yeah, man. Great way to start the day. One winner easily paying for that VSiN plus plus plus membership."
24:13
[laughs] Uh, "Less gifts, more picks. At what time approximately do you put up your overnight tennis picks on the VSiN Picks page?
24:20
I either look too early in the night or too late, and I specially signed up to get your dandies. Argh." Um, I text them to B- Bill Adee gives me white glove service on putting it into the, uh, into the picks page.
24:32
So I text him at a very reasonable hour, and I think Bill puts it right up there.
24:35
Sometimes that page can be tricky though, because you have to click on the name of the person, so you have to click on my name to get it, I believe. Yeah. Um- Like, if you're waking up in the morning- Mm-hmm...
24:45
and you're trying to find something specific from the night before, it's probably easiest to go pick, yes, select a name. Just find a name and pick on them.
24:52
But, but usually the names of all the hosts and guests who have made picks are at the top, and you just click on the name and there are their na- and there's their picks, right?
24:59
Yeah, I'm just saying the bets, they'll come in chronologically as they're entered. Right. So, like, if you did something the night before, people are waking up in the morning, it might be buried by some bets. Right.
25:08
He was- So go find Gil. Yeah... but he was just asking, yeah, when I put them out. Uh, in, in well time. I mean, this match was this morning, and this was out, you know, what? Evening yesterday.
25:15
So, um, 3JackH3131, and yes, by the way, as soon as you get to the outdoors, uh, we have, uh, you know, the, the winners have returned with the, uh, plus money. 3JackH3131, "Happy Thursday, boys.
25:26
Looking forward to Jamar Hamlin being a rightfully awarded winner tonight. Took outside positions on Burrow and Lamar for Offensive Player of the Year, 'cause you never know."
25:36
Mike Hockener, "I'm growing increasingly pessimistic about Hendrickson tonight, but growing belief that Campbell will outvote KOC with second and third place votes. Surely the head-to-head matters.
25:47
Hoping week 18 flipped a few voters." People starting to get [laughs] people starting to get a little, uh, anxiety about this tonight. We'll see.
25:55
It's, uh, it's so much easier to say, "Man, I have no idea how, how some of these are gonna go," [laughs] when you're not financially involved. Like, I... Do you have any...
26:02
You don't have anything Coach of the Year or Defensive Player of the Year, right? Um, well, no, I had a Coach of the Year from pre-flop. Remember I made on the, on, uh, Mike McDonald. Oh, yeah, you're right. So did I.
26:12
Yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But not- How's that looking? What's that? Yeah. Is that how... How's that looking? Yes. It's- Is, is he there? [laughs] Is he gonna make it? No, that wasn't.
26:17
What was the other one you asked me about? Uh, Defensive Player of the Year? No, never made it. Yeah, me either. Ne- never even came close to making one on Defensive Player of the Year.
26:24
And, and that's, honestly, that's one I'm glad I'm not sweating that out tonight, 'cause I have no idea where that would tend.
26:29
Hey, uh, before we get to, uh, before we get to, uh, Miles Garrett and Cooper Kupp, can I give you a pet peeve that, uh- Yeah... you and I have sort of independently come to at the same time?
26:39
We didn't know that we had this, but this happened again yesterday, so I know- Oh, [laughs] we're getting into this? All right.
26:43
[laughs] Um, do you have the person in your life who calls you on the phone while they are going from point A to, point A to point B? So while they are traveling, their day's errands or events that they must do, right?
26:58
Mm-hmm. So in other words, they are not taking away from their own time and their own plan for the day.
27:05
But you, you're either at work, uh, you either are doing something, you are stationary, and you have other things to do, so you know that you have other items to do, and that this phone call does not catch you in the same optimal sort of flow of your day.
27:19
And you tell that person just that, and they don't care. And they just continue to chat you up. They're like, "Yeah, great. Anyway, what I was saying was..." 'Cause they're driving, and it doesn't hamper them in any way.
27:31
I hate that person. It's driving me insane.
27:34
Yeah, I, uh, o- one of my best friends, he's a real estate photographer down in South Florida, so he's in the car all day 'cause he's going from shoot to shoot all over South Florida. A- and he'll call me all the time.
27:42
I, I have a feeling every one of his in-between shoots, he calls, like, a list of five different people and then recycles again, you know, that sort of thing.
27:50
But it's, it always comes across like you're the jerk who doesn't have time to talk. That's right. And it's like, well, no, no, no, no, no, it's the other way around.
27:58
I'm helping you get through your w- work commute, basically, or your drive to another shoot. So don't give it, uh, d- you know, don't blame it on me when I'm trying to help you out, or I'm actually helping you out.
28:10
Not enough is made of that human being who does that. No, it drives me insane. You don't often hear about that person. Drives me absolutely insane. That person. Yeah. That, that's, that's a curb episode ready to come.
28:17
It really is. Let's, let's submit that to Larry David. It really is. Um, okay. So usually I don't get that worked up about next team odds for anybody in any sport, unless you really move the needle.
28:27
In the case of Miles Garrett, I think this is big, actually, that he would. And so I am kind of interested in where might Miles Garrett end up?
28:35
Miles Garrett, who famously the other day, after the Luka trade in the NBA, the next day he was out publicly saying, "Yeah, I'm done here with Cleveland. I want a trade." Um, these next team odds are at DraftKings.
28:47
They do include the Cleveland Browns. They do include him staying at Cleveland, and Cleveland remains the short shot at three to one. Here are how the other odds stack up.
28:56
The Washington Commanders, yeah, I'm trying to say it now, plus 450.
29:01
Now, the Commanders have Jayden Daniels on a rookie deal, and so therefore, remember, this is one of the two ways you can win a Super Bowl, either have a Hall of Fame quarterback or have someone on a rookie deal who's over-performing at the quarterback position, then you can pay everybody else.
29:15
So that's where Washington ends up looking beautiful. And man, would a Miles Garrett, Jonathan Allen, DaRon Payne defensive line be something- Yeah... you might be interested in? Mm-hmm. Raiders are at plus 650.
29:28
They're right after that. I'm not sure I get that one, quite frankly. The Lions are plus 750. By the way, the Lions are absolutely in play for this. Um, maybe they don't feel quite as good defensively as they once did.
29:41
Obviously, Aidan Hutchinson got hurt, uh, as well this year on the o- uh, uh, defensive line. Could you imagine those, that, those two edge rushers, Hutch and Garrett, on the edge [laughs] for the Detroit Lions?
29:53
But this is the thing with a guy like Miles Garrett.
29:55
To me, you either have to be on the doorstep of a Super Bowl or with a quarterback, like Washington, who might also be on the doorstep of, of a Super Bowl, but also with a rookie guy on a, you know, over-performing so you can pay other players.
30:08
So to me, Commanders and Lions, viable. Patriots are plus 850. They have the room and they have the, uh, the capital. But Miles Garrett states he wants to go to a team that has a chance to contend.
30:18
The Patriots don't really fit that bill. Packers would be interesting at plus 950. Their defense really could use- Yeah... Miles Garrett.
30:27
The Bears also, by the way, you know the leading sacker for the Bears last year was Montez Sweat with only five and a half sacks? So the Bears could really use Miles Garrett.
30:35
Cardinals would be a sneaky team that many don't feel about. How about the Chargers? That makes a lot of sense at 14 to 1. Khalil Mack is gonna be a free agent. Joey Bosa, oft hurt. Mm-hmm.
30:44
Often hurt, so the Chargers make sense. And never rule out the Eagles, for God sakes. It's 16 to 1. Yeah, like, they need Miles Garrett.
30:51
[laughs] I would just absolutely be out of my head if they got him, but they're absolutely a contender. What's the bet here to you? I don't think the, the Rams want him. Rams is next, next on the list is 16 to 1.
31:01
Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't you just draft two defensive ends, uh, i- in the last draft? Like, why would you want Miles Garrett? I, I mean, everybody would want Miles Garrett. Right. I don't wanna put it like that.
31:11
But, um, I don't know that there's an obvious one I'm running to right now, Gil, but I think these are always interesting to talk through and think through because I...
31:20
The way that Miles Garrett has come out and, and spoke about this, I don't know that I'd be booking the Browns as the short shot in this market. Yeah.
31:28
I know the NFL is not the NBA, and that these guys usually do come back when they're under team control, that we usually see them choose not to miss out on p- uh, game checks and paychecks and come back to that team.
31:39
But man, some of those statements that Miles Garrett has made, it make, it makes it [laughs] it sounds like to me, he, that guy ain't suiting up for Cleveland anytime soon.
31:46
So I'm a little surprised to see them, um, I, I mean, maybe not as the favorite, but three, three to one and then everybody else starts at 450 or longer, I'm a little surprised to see that.
31:57
I would not hate making a bet on any of the Commanders, Lions, or Packers. Those, those to me seem like the most obvious. I, I would think the, the- Agreed...
32:08
I think even though the, the Browns are stating that they don't wanna trade him, if they did, they would trade him to an NFC team. Um- I think the Bears are slightly interesting, too. Yeah, they are.
32:16
And for a lot of the same Commanders reasons, right? I mean, it's not the same level, but if you think you've got a young quarterback you could build around a lot of talent.
32:23
Listen, a, uh, there is one team not listed there. A special numbers game investigation this morning revealed that Miles Garrett was born in Arlington, Texas, and went to Texas A&M. I just wanna say that.
32:33
The Cowboys are not listed. That would be sick. Every team was listed, by the, uh, m- And who doesn't wanna go home? I, I only built out a certain number of teams, but m- like, the, the...
32:41
Remember we used to complain about that with some of these? Every team was listed, so there, there are odds for every single team on these.
32:47
Cooper Kupp, not quite as interesting, um, but who wouldn't want him as a wide receiver two, for sure. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are your short shots at five to one for Cooper Kupp's next team.
32:58
Uh, and the Rams, the difference with Garrett and Kupp is, uh, the Browns are saying, "W- we're not trading you," and then one, one would assume if they do, they're not necessarily going to do him right necessarily in the same way that the Rams have actually proclaimed.
33:12
Right. "We will make sure Cooper Kupp ends up at a team of his liking." Mm-hmm. Uh, Steelers obviously in huge wide receiver need, and if the Bengals lose Tee Higgins, they could really use some Cooper Kupp.
33:24
But who's third? The Washington Commodores. Six to one. You don't want the incomparable Terry McLaurin on one side and Cooper Kupp on the other. Oh, what about the Commanders for both?
33:36
It's so great having a young quarterback. [laughs] Now everybody wants to come there. Let's see if either happens, if not both. Coming back with Mike Pritchard next on The Numbers Game at VSiN.
33:45
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin here as well, talking Super Bowl LIX.
34:03
Now, we get tweets that beat us both. Michael Burns about the thing about, uh, the person who calls and doesn't interrupt their day but interrupts yours. Hmm.
34:09
He just says, "Don't answer the phone," in capitals, he said at me. Oh, no, no. So here's the thing. I, I, I have, I will ignore the calls, especially when it's one or two people that I know do this all the time. Right.
34:20
I'll ignore it, but then you get the text like- You get the text... a day or two later where it's like, "Oh, I guess what? You're too big time to call me." Yeah. "It's only me that ever calls you." Well, see Spackler.
34:29
It's all guilt trips, man. I took some Hamlin based on the difficulty of resurrection. However, that may not be enough for live people to appreciate. Go Lamar. Uh, talking about the awards tonight.
34:38
Trip Tepper, "Based on the roster and how much they overachieved relative to expectations, Commanders head coach Dan Quinn should be Coach of the Year winner.
34:45
Full disclosure, I bet Quinn 30 to 1 before the season, so my viewpoint is very biased." Thank you for the, uh, the honesty there, Trip. Uh, Dan Greshel, "Gil, I am that person.
34:56
I call my parents for the just because calls when I'm on my way home from work because I have two toddlers at home. Please don't hate me." Well, you got two toddlers. I'm not gonna judge you. No, no.
35:04
See, Dan, you're not that person because you recognize you're that person. Yes. That's right. That's the importance.
35:10
Now, we, Gil and I were talking about this the other day, 'cause the old Thad Bidlin, my dad, I'm on the phone with him.
35:14
He's driving down, uh, in Florida, and I tell him like, "Hey, pops," like, "Great catching up with you," I'm like, "I'm a little busy here." And he's like, "Oh, no, you're all good. Like, go, go ahead, do your thing.
35:23
Like I'm, you know, I'm just driving anyways." Yeah. So at least he could recognize what he was doing. You recognize what you're doing.
35:29
Some people, they don't think they're doing anything wrong that we have a problem with. Eric B., not that Eric B., but maybe it's that Eric B. I don't know if our Kim is around.
35:37
He said, "Tailed Jim Root on his picks from the show yesterday. Three winners from three-man weave. Appreciate that." Bang. There you go, James Patrick Root. Jason H.
35:45
Levin, "The Cowgirls aren't listed as a landing spot for Garrett because he said he wants to go to a contender." Yeah, no, I know he said that. [laughs] But he is from there, if you know what I mean.
35:53
22 to 1 for the Cowboys. 22 to 1. Mm-hmm. Ian McDonald, "My first question when calling anybody at any time on a personal phone call is are you busy or are you right in the middle of something right now?
36:01
Avoid being that guy." Thank you, Ian. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, he played the game. He's a national champion at Colorado. He played in the National Football League as well for multiple teams at wideout.
36:13
He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, the nicest guy you'll ever meet, our buddy Mike Pritchard. How you doing, Pritch? I'm hanging in there, fellas. Yeah. Did you say three-man weave?
36:22
Three-man weave, that's what they call themselves. [laughs] You remember that drill? Do you remember that- That's true... in basketball practice? That's pretty cool. Yeah, that's pretty cool. I like that.
36:29
[laughs] I don't know if they do that anymore. Do you, are you familiar with the three-man weave? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think they still do it probably.
36:34
What, Pritch, what do you think the three-man weave was supposed to teach us? That drill I mean- That's a good question... getting down the lane, right?
36:42
Getting, making sure you're getting up and down the court, I would imagine. Yeah, being able to pass- Yeah... on the fly, I guess. Right. I mean, I, I think it was mainly just conditioning stuff. Yeah.
36:50
[laughs] The thing is- Yeah... there is no situation in basketball where it's an actual three- [laughs]... day a week. Right, right. Actually occurring. I know, I know. Yeah. Exactly.
36:57
Uh, Pritchard, the perfect guy to ask this question. Um, so the only sort of weird thing that has come up here on the injury report, Kansas City's unscathed. Yeah.
37:06
But Philadelphia, Ja- Jalen Carter, um, when he's not busy slapping Tyler Biadasz in the face and not getting flagged for it, or poking Tyler Biadasz in the eye, um, he has an illness.
37:19
And I'm just curious from a player's perspective, when someone has an illness, what is the locker room panic degree on something like that? Well, think petri dish, uh, Gil and Kelly.
37:30
I mean, uh, there, there's so many, um, germs in, in a locker room, you can imagine, right?
37:35
Um, there, there's, there's so many, uh, different ways that that could get out of hand, uh, that they need to nip it in the bud.
37:42
Uh, certainly they need to make sure they can separate Jalen from a lot of guys or everybody on the locker room if they caught it early enough, and then certainly they got to get him better, right?
37:52
And they got some good stuff in the locker room, guys. Uh, you know, i- if, if they can get him right, which I'm sure they will, uh, he'll be good to go for the game.
38:00
But more importantly, uh, they cannot allow that illness to spread to somebody else, and then that spreads to somebody else.
38:08
All of a sudden now you have, um, several illnesses, uh, within that locker room that can hinder your roster that way. So, yeah, and so the media doesn't make too much of that when they do bring that up.
38:18
Like, oh, you don't want... I mean, 'cause obviously there is a horrible scenario, um- Right, right... if, if you do let that happen, yeah. You know what I think?
38:25
I think, um, insiders will follow it up, you know, uh, 'cause insiders know. I mean, they, they're in the locker room all the time, and, um, they, they'll understand that. They'll ask those questions.
38:35
And, uh, so if you're looking for more information about that situation, uh, just lock in on those insiders right now. Yeah. Only Jalen Carter, uh, Kenneth Gainwell, and Brandon Graham, limited participation- Yeah...
38:47
with the Eagles in terms of practice. How do you see Super Bowl 59 going, Mike? And if you were betting this, where's your bet? Well, first of all, I wanted to wait till this week.
38:57
Um, I, I'm glad to hear the reports that there's line movement towards Philly, uh, because I was hoping that would happen.
39:04
Uh, even though, you know, I could have made the bet, uh, on Kansas City last week, but I'm waiting and see if this game gets to a pick them. Uh, if it does, that's, that's, uh, even better for me. I, I like Kansas City.
39:16
Uh, I think they just have that clutch team. Uh, I think, uh, if you look at the profile of the Chiefs, uh, from a, a dynasty standpoint, they fit the profile, right?
39:27
40-11 over the last three years regular season, a dominant football. Um, they got that it factor at quarterback. They got that one unicorn guy at quarterback. Um, it's hard to beat a dynasty. It really is.
39:40
And, and people scratch their head year after year, how do they get it done? Well, the Chiefs are consistently clutch. You know, they make the plays when they have to. Uh, Spags calls the right defense when he has to.
39:53
Andy Reid comes up with the right play when he has to, and the fellows on the field execute, uh, perfectly when they have to. I mean, that, that's the essence of a dynasty and, and that's hard to beat.
40:03
I, I think, to be honest with you, I think Philly has a better roster, overall roster, uh, talent-wise.
40:09
And, uh, schematically they can do a lot of things too, but at that quarterback position and that mindset, 40-11 over the last three years, uh, that's gonna be tough to beat.
40:20
If I said to you, so, well, not, not if I said to you, but at the end of the game, um, if the, if the Chiefs won because this happened, or the Eagles won because this happened, fill in those blanks for us, if you would.
40:34
Okay. Um, the Chiefs won because they created big plays. You know, I think a lot of people are bringing up the red zone and efficiency, uh, for the Chiefs, uh, and that's true.
40:45
And then the red zone dominance from the Eagles defense not allowing touchdowns, that's true as well. Uh, I think Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, they've had two weeks now to work on this.
40:54
They're gonna have to implement that big play, that air raid essence again, that Tyreek Hill back in the offense.
40:59
And they have two guys from a human standpoint that can do that, uh, along with Travis Kelce with the run after the catch. And, uh, you know, that, that's gonna be interesting.
41:08
And then on the other side, the Eagles, they're not a pound and pound kind of team. They're an explosive running game. But Kellen Moore has that Boise State in him, right? Um- Mm.
41:20
Could we see the Statue of Liberty in this game, that kind of play, that, that kind of trick play, right?
41:25
Can we see another Philly special, uh, derivative or something like that, uh, from a creative play caller who's had a, you know, all year and, and, you know, now you got two weeks, two to really break it down and try to throw in some of that Boise State magic?
41:39
Um, I wouldn't be surprised if that's not, uh, if we, if we don't see... I would be surprised if we don't see, um, that type of trick, uh, play out there from Philly.
41:49
Since you're on the Kansas City side, I will ask this, and it also works better for Kansas City, 'cause I think Philly with, uh, Saquon Barkley, it sort of limits the, the random, the distribution of, like, who could be a superstar.
42:01
Mm-hmm. But on the Kansas City side, beyond Mahomes, there's so many different options, right? Of someone who, who, who's going to step up in a way. Like, it wouldn't surprise anybody.
42:10
Oh, Justin Watson had an amazing game. Oh, D-Hop had an amazing game. Right. You know, pick, pick your poison. Who do you believe that will, will end up being for your Chiefs in this? Well, I got a prop on him.
42:22
It's Juju Smith-Schuster. He's plus 500, uh, anytime touchdown. Um, because just what you said, uh, you know, the Eagles and Vic Fangio, they're gonna have a game plan for Kelce.
42:33
Uh, they're gonna have a game plan for Pacheco and, and Hunt and, you know, they're gonna try to neutralize Patrick Mahomes. They don't have a game plan for Juju Smith-Schuster, right?
42:42
[laughs] Uh, so with, with him in the game, and we saw Mecole Hardman catch the winning touchdown last year in the Super Bowl. It's... Jawaan Jennings got an anytime touchdown for me last year in the Super Bowl.
42:51
So it's those others that Shaq talks about often, uh, that show up in these big games. Timmy Smith. Hey, Smith. Man, remember those? I take you back, back there, right?
43:01
[laughs] Um, so, you know, it's guys like that that come out of nowhere in a Super Bowl that su- surprise people and then also, uh, can help cash a big ticket as well.
43:11
You know what I m- I, I noticed last week, and I mentioned this on the show. I'm curious if you have. Juju runs out of bounds too easily. [laughs] Like, I'd like to see him have some contact.
43:18
Did you, have you noticed that a little bit about him? Well, you know, yeah. He's not, he's not the fleet of foot, Gil. Yeah. Um, [laughs] but you know, he's, he's, he's crafty, and he's forgotten about a lot of times.
43:31
And if Patrick Mahomes is scrambling around a little bit, they're trying to make something happen in their red zone, somebody breaks down in coverage, or they just forget about the guy, uh, Patrick will find a player like that.
43:41
So I, I think all hands on deck in a game like this, and, and certainly Patrick's probably filed that away too.
43:48
I- if I can get Juju Smith-Schuster, uh, involved in this game, that could break down the Eagles defense a little bit. Look- All right.
43:54
Look, Gil, not everybody can be a tough wide receiver and running back like Mike Pritchard, okay? [laughs] Right. That's very true.
44:00
Uh, but that is an NFL wide receiver saying that he wants props on a wide receiver in this game, Juju Smith-Schuster. Right. Um, Mike, I appreciate it. I hope you feel better.
44:09
I know you're playing hurt here today for us. I am. Thanks a lot, guys. Enjoy the game. You too. Mike Pritchard at M-I Pritch, uh, @mipritchard dot, uh, excuse me, @mipritchard on Twitter.
44:19
Uh, of course, you can, uh, always follow him there as well. Really appreciate him coming on. He was not feeling well, as you could tell, uh, but he certainly got his bets in. Yep. Fought through it.
44:28
Bill Krackomberger, Unscripted on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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