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Feb 7, 2025
A Numbers Game | February 7, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 7, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158.
0:19
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, to my left. You didn't do the little wave. I, I thought I'd go with a nod today. Oh.
0:28
Um, hey, before anything happens, has Rybakina and Bencic started yet? It was, we have a one tennis match overnight. I'm on Bencic plus 138. In Transylvania? I'm sorry, you're s- stepping on, what did you say? I'm sorry.
0:37
I- In Transylvania? Oh, no. No, this is in, uh, this is in Abu Dhabi. Uh, semifinal there in Abu Dhabi. Bencic w- uh, we gave out a- Has not started... gave out as a plus 138 favorite for subscribers.
0:48
Um, no, p- plus 138 dog for subscribers. I'm not sure if it's started yet. I'm not sure if you can even bet it yet pre-flop. Uh- But I'm on Bencic as a dog here against Rybakina. I'm seeing it.
0:57
It's still up, say, s- Okay... it, it, from the sportsbook time, I'm seeing it starts in five minutes. Rybakina minus 150 over at DraftKings, Bencic plus 125. Mm, okay, so, uh, it's kind of at the edge of playable.
1:10
Edge of playable, given, given the number. Guess what? I'm gonna check MGM right now, and then I might bet it. Uh, okay, on the show today, Super Bowl 59.
1:17
It's our final Friday, obviously, before the big game, and yes, we got it stacked. Warren Sharp joining us this hour. Does Warren know he's joining us?
1:25
My God, Warren Sharp's gonna join us this hour from sharpfootballanalysis.com. Uh, [laughs] the answer is yes, by the way, Kelly. [laughs] Uh, he will, uh- Yeah... he will join us- Hasn't answered my text.
1:34
[laughs] As will Steve Fezzik for Fezzik Fridays. He will join us, uh, in volume, hour number two. Chris Fallica as well from Fox Sports, all of their thoughts on Super Bowl 59. Fezzik has a bunch of thoughts.
1:46
Yes, he does. Uh, including who he thinks or where he thinks the line will end up. Will it stay exactly how it is? Will it move, you know, significantly? By significantly, I mean, will the favorite flip?
1:58
Let's, let's not go crazy with significance, right? But we'll see.
2:01
We'll get, uh, Fezzik here, and he's got things to say about all kinds of stuff, including his, uh, big jackpot that he hit two days ago- Yeah, good for him... that we talked about yesterday, uh, on the show.
2:08
Man, Bencic plus 105 at MGM. Oh, Jesus. It, it just ticks down in front of my eyes. Plus 115, plus 110, plus 05, 105. It's like you're moving numbers, Gil. Did, did I do that? [laughs] As, uh, the great Urkel once said.
2:20
Um, okay, before we do any of this, though, and we will do our We Sure Super Bowl 59 style here coming up. Estamos seguros for those listening in Spanish, and also for Rob Marino, so he could understand.
2:29
Um, this is- [laughs]... this is about the NFL awards. Congratulations to everybody who had Josh Allen as MVP. Josh Allen squeaks by in the closest MVP vote since 2016. So let's review from our standpoint.
2:44
I had Ashton Jeanty, uh, for the Heisman. I had Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP. Both had big numbers, big-ish, not the longest, but big-ish numbers, both, both, uh, sizable wins it would've been.
2:57
And both end up in historically close losses. Ashton Jeanty, the closest Heisman loss since 2009, and then last night, Lamar Jackson, the closest MVP loss since 2016. Do you remember the 2016 one?
3:09
Matt Ryan edging out Tom Brady. Wow. That aged well. Um- Actually, [laughs] I like barely remember that. So it, you know, the bottom line is this, this got down to, do we have the MVP, uh, tally?
3:21
Do we have that on the board anyway? There we go. Uh, oh, we have 'em person by person here. So look at that.
3:26
The, the left column for those who, uh, will have the visuals here, the left column are those that voted for Lamar. Uh, oh, this is Offensive Player of the Year we're looking at. No, this is bo- this is both, Gil.
3:36
Sorry, I grabbed an, I grabbed an extra one.
3:37
So this is, what you're seeing at the top, Lamar Jackson voters and Josh Allen voters, those are the MVP voters, and then next to them is how they also voted, what they voted for Offensive Player of the Year.
3:48
All right, you're confusing me now. Here's the story, though. Uh, it's a 10, five, three, two, one scoring system, right?
3:55
You, you gotta put down five on your ballots, and in points, 10 points, five points, three points, two points, one points, uh, one point, rather, based on one through five where you, uh, end up voting on them.
4:05
What this came down to, right, so not only is it the closest vote since 2016, but Allen becomes the first player in 21 seasons to win MVP without being selected first team All-Pro since MVP was handed out since 1957.
4:20
The only other players to win the award despite not being a first team All-Pro were Broncos quarterback John Elway in 1987, uh, when Joe Montana was first team All-Pro.
4:30
I think Montana and Rice kind of split the vote otherwise in that, in that particular year. And then Titans quarterback Steve McNair, Air McNair, in 2003 when Peyton Manning was first team All-Pro.
4:40
This is only the third such instance. So it's the same voters for MVP that, that vote for All-Pro, which is why many, uh, thought that Jackson might get this in the end, um, and get his third MVP.
4:51
But what ends up happening is Jackson, uh, who had 30 of the 50 first team All-Pro votes, while Allen got 18, 30 to 18 when it came to first team All-Pro, Allen then won, uh, the first place votes for MVP 27-23.
5:07
So here it is. This is what I'm looking for. 27-22, one for 383 points against, again, 10-5-3 when it comes to the points there for, uh, first place, second place, third place. Lamar, 23-26, zero and one.
5:22
That's how close it was. So what was the difference going back to that AP first team vote versus MVP? Allen, um, basically it was that nine voters- Mm-hmm...
5:33
who picked Allen for first team All-Pro and gave him the nod for that decided to go with Jackson for Offensive Player of the Year in this part, in the awards voting, and so that's wh- and, and instead vote Allen first for MVP.
5:49
So that's where it changed. That was the key to all of this. Um, and so again, congratulations. We had, both of us had Lamar Jackson tickets. The first sign was Polymarket spiked in Allen's favor yesterday.
6:01
Now, Polymarket won't mean anything unless there's some kind of leak. Mm. That was the first thing.
6:06
The second thing is when we saw the Offensive Player of the Year vote, which by the way, went to, went to Saquon Barkley, congratulations to everybody, had Saquon Barkley there, no surprise. Um-
6:16
The, when we saw that Jackson got 12 first place votes, that was the other sign. We're like, oh, no.
6:21
'Cause the, 'cause the likelihood of m- many of those not going with him MVP was there, and we just found out that nine- Yeah... nine of those did not. Um, and then [laughs]
6:31
and then the third sign, I don't know if y'all caught this, but they did them in order, right? There's seven awards.
6:36
Before they got to c- The final two were Coach of the Year and MVP, and before they got to Coach of the Year, Tracy Wolfson tweeted out, "Congratulations to Josh Allen for winning MVP."
6:47
[laughs] And then she quietly took it down about five minutes later, and then they gave out Coach of the Year. Congratulations to everybody who had KOC. Uh, Kevin O'Connell wins Coach of the Year.
6:57
By the way, here are the, uh, offensive... L- let's run those back, guys. I'm sorry. Uh, eh, Offensive Player of the Year, it was Saquon's sort of landslide win. Lamar was second, by the way.
7:06
Lamar second in Offensive Player of the Year voting. Uh, here's the Coach of the Year voting that we just alluded to. Kevin O'Connell, um, in what was, I, I guess, a close race with Dan Campbell. It's pretty darn close.
7:18
361 to 283, and then Andy Reid a distant third. I'm glad to see Andy Reid got a little love here, though. Yeah. Me too. Uh, it just felt like all season that was not being talked about enough. Me too.
7:30
I, i- if there was one m- And by the way, again, with the Josh Allen thing, I don't know that s- that even can be considered any kind of surprise. We always knew it was gonna be close.
7:39
My thing to the, to the, uh, to the Allen folks was they thought, "Ah, you're crazy.
7:44
Allen's gonna win," and, and my whole point the whole time was you're way too overconfident, and that really did come through with, with the closest vote, you know, since 2016. Well, if you take away...
7:53
I mean, Gil, this is where, eh, I, I know we went crazy about rules last year, right? This is, we've talked about this a lot.
7:59
If you take away quarterback as an option for Offensive Player of the Year, Lamar Jackson's winning MVP last night. We said that, we said that somebody's gonna get, gonna get snubbed from everything.
8:08
That's what happened. And the whole time we talked about MVP, remember I always said, I go, "It is their right. It is any voter's right. If you wanna, if you wanna vote on Most Valuable Player, literally speaking,
8:17
and say, what would the Bills be without Josh Allen?" I said so many times, they're like, "Well, they, they would've won two games." So if you voted it that way, that's how you end up with Josh Allen.
8:25
But I will say this, Kelly. Th- there had to be some kind of voter fatigue at play as well in this. Yeah. Yeah, there is.
8:30
Because no one can still answer this question properly, which is if Josh Allen had the fourth highest power, uh, passer rating of all time, which Lamar did, if Josh Allen was the first ever with 40-plus touchdown passes and less than five interceptions, 41 and four, which Lamar accomplished.
8:48
If Josh Allen was the first ever with 4,000 yards passing and 800 yards rushing, he ended up with over 900 yards rushing and over 4,100 passing, would Lamar Jackson have even gotten one vote?
8:59
That's where the incongruence is. Mm. That, to me, is what can never be explained off by the Allen people. Mm-hmm.
9:05
But again, Allen s- Allen gets it, and, uh, so the other ones, Comeback Player of the Year, Kelly is not mad. Joe Burrow gets his second Comeback Player of the Year award. So what did we learn? I'm still mad. Why?
9:16
There should be way more money in my account. [laughs] But, like, I couldn't bet it that heavily 'cause I can't trust anybody. Well, Joe Burrow wins it big. J.K. Dobbins, this is...
9:24
So we didn't really talk enough about Dobbins. He finishes second. As he should have. As he should have with all of his surgeries, right? Just a- amazing, uh, multiple injuries that he's come back for.
9:34
Darnold ends up third. DeMar Hamlin does get a modicum of votes. It wasn't a negligible amount of points. He ends up fourth. Um, so what does this tell us for next year? That voters will actually play by the rules here.
9:48
They'll play by the rules. Yes. And you know what? For as much as we crap on the voters, and we probably can for some of these other ones- Yes...
9:55
you, you were asked to follow some guidelines Qualify You followed the guidelines. This is what the results should have been. Um, they were correct. I just, I... Now maybe I feel... Here's the problem, Gil.
10:05
I might feel a little bit more confident in betting this award again, and that terrifies me- [laughs]... going forward.
10:11
Uh, and then the, uh, to me, the biggest surprise, 'cause I don't think anything that we've talked about yet was any big surprise. By the way, how did Christian Gonzalez get 69 points?
10:19
I know, like, in two first place votes. What? Um, here's my thing.
10:24
I thought Defensive Player of the Year was the only one that was a mild surprise to me, and by the way, it wasn't, it shouldn't have been a surprise based on the betting odds 'cause Sertan, Patrick Sertan- Yeah...
10:33
was, in fact, the favorite. But I do, I do feel like Trey Hendrickson folks thought they got robbed a little bit. Mm. But what does that tell us for the future?
10:42
That these voters are simply not willing to vote for a great player on a bad defense, and I think that's the lesson learned there. So I think, I think it's a little bit of that.
10:52
The other one I'm wondering is, it, how much- To an extent they're not, right? How much of betting odds, it, it, like, worked their way into the, into voting, right? Right.
11:00
Did the betting odds push voters to vote, some voters to vote the way they did? 'Cause how many times have we said on air and off air, we're like, "Defense is Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year."
11:11
Like, we don't really know. That's it up in the air. But we were surprised when we s- kept seeing Patrick Sertan take more and more money, get shorter and shorter. So MVP came down to two.
11:20
By the way, and Jayden Daniels, I kept asking, will he be unanimous? I mean, I said, "Watch, one person will vote for Brock Bowers just to be different." Yep. Sam Monson. Remember Sam from PLF? Really? He's the guy.
11:31
All right. Remember how he got upset when I dared ask him if that w- what his accent was? [laughs] He was very annoyed with me on Prime Time Action.
11:37
Um, so two votes ends up, the two first place votes ends up being the difference for, uh, MVP, and our own Adam Shine and Rich Gannon both went Josh Allen. Not to, not to single out anybody. We'll come back.
11:48
Warren Sharp, Super Bowl 59. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:04
Right now you can check out articles like Zach Cohen's NBA Trade Deadline Recap. Oh, I wanna read that. Matt Devine's Exceptional Super Bowl Props, and Aaron Moore's College Baseball Season Preview.
12:13
Yes, college baseball, baby. And later today you can check out Zach Cohen's Best NBA Props & Picks, Adam Burke with his Best Bets in College Hoops, and Steve Macatinen's NBA Analytics Report.
12:23
To get access to all the articles on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for $59 off an annual subscription with promo code ANG. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up Today. It's Gil Alexander.
12:35
We get tweets at Beating the Book, always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everybody. Uh, Fezzik's decided to come on. "Huge Friday show," he says. Uh, he will be here next hour. Uh, this is from, uh, Bob Sacamano.
12:47
He says, "Yo, big shout out to Cleve TA," yes, "for the O'Connell pick back in July- Mm-hmm... on a Numbers Game. Just a sprinkle, but still fun to ride it all season. Also, award show is an awful production."
12:59
[laughs] There is, there is that as well. Um, this is from, let's see, this is from, I wanna get to the, uh, correct spot here, E.H. Bills. E.H.
13:08
Bills fan, he says, "Gil, I hit Daniels Rookie of the Year and McConnell Coach of the Year all from listening to your show on a random day in the summer. Can't wait for next year's edition. Thank you, sir."
13:17
Yeah, big, big, uh, shout out to, uh, to Cleve, though, again, for O'Connell, 'cause that, he was so adamant about that over the summer, gave us his reasons why, and bang, there you go.
13:26
Um, John Balducci, "The argument if you remove them from their team how bad would their team be is the dumbest argument. For all these guys in contention for MB- MVP, the answer for everyone every time is very bad.
13:37
And I bet, and I bet Josh doesn't feel right," he says. How about that for a, for a, uh, very honest opinion from a, from a, a Allen guy with an Allen bet? Yeah. Uh, James, "Great show with, uh, Crack yesterday.
13:50
I never thought I'd see Washington back in the mix. Can't wait for next season. I was blocked by Bill a few years ago and still not sure why. I'd like to hit a jackpot to tip somebody."
13:58
[laughs] Boy, there's a, there are so many random thoughts in that one, but thank, thank you. Yeah, we, the Bill, Bill segments are, or the Bill hours are just awesome always. Warren knows he's coming on.
14:06
He just retweeted, just an update. Uh, this is from, uh, Kevin Ryan. "Gil, oh, happy day.
14:10
It's time, it's that time of year again where we complain and rant and rave about the absurdity and injustices of the NFL Player Awards. Fun times."
14:18
Yeah, no, I think it's always, uh, fun to, because we all these, had these bets riding all year long. Jason H11, "Question for Kelly, what was worse, Jason Day's sweatsuit last Sunday or Ricky's camouflage yesterday?"
14:28
Oh man, great question. I'll go with Jason Day's sweatsuit. I can't get over that look, but- Jason Day... camouf- the camouflage seemed funny for, like, a day. Like, if he just did it for a day.
14:39
Russell Ambrose, uh, with a question for Fez later, "What's better, Chiefs money line -108 or Chiefs -1.5 +106?" He's gonna tell you to take the Chiefs money line either way because of overtime rules.
14:49
That's my prediction, but we'll, we'll ask him. Stat Logic Sports, "Jim Miller is the guy you need to talk to. Voted Lamar fourth. Clown," says Stat Logic Sports.
14:58
And I had a bet on Allen, hedged with Lamar, full transparency. I like the, uh, I like the honest Josh Allen voters who are like, "Whew." Yeah, Jim Miller voting Lamar fourth. Come on. What are we doing?
15:10
Well, then, then, like, you and I were talking off- What are we doing?...
15:12
off the air a bit about it with NBA ye- the other day, but it's, y- you know, this whole conversation still leaves out the greatest quarterback in the game right now in Patrick Mahomes, right? Yeah.
15:23
So it's, it's- Yeah, but he didn't have his best season, though. He's not in- No, I agree, I agree. Yeah, yeah. NCA95 Gambler, "Thank you, Cleve. Thank you, Gil. Couldn't have done it without you guys.
15:30
I'm a faithful listener and follower." Whole bunch of Kevin O'Connell folks. Uh, Shrek McPhee, "What am I missing?
15:37
Motor City Dan Campbell embarrasses KOC twice with a backup defense, uh, two-thirds coord-, uh, co- two of three coordinator finalists, 15 wins in the hardest division, number one seed, and Kevin O'Connell gets it because Darnold is bad, huh?
15:49
Voters submitted before week 18. That's the only logic." I mean, it's the, uh, it, th- this is where the Cleve TA trends come in, right?
15:56
We've been going over a- all season long e- preseason expectations for what teams were, what they needed to do, uh, where they were at heading into this season, and what they fi- uh, finished at.
16:07
M- m- uh, Minnesota, uh, they, they far exceeded what their expectations were in the preseason. And finally, Corbin, "Good morning, gents. Massive final football Friday of the year.
16:15
Can't wait to hear all the guests and viewpoints, but I just wanna personally say thank you too and the whole Numbers Game crew for all the hours you keep us entertained with with football talk."
16:22
Oh man, that's very nice of you. Appreciate it. Uh, can we just throw up the preseason odds for everybody for all the winners, what the preseason numbers were, uh, back, uh, guys? Thank you for this. This is perfect.
16:31
Josh Allen was plus 650 in the preseason. Saquon was 25 to 1. Sir Tan was 100 to 1. There's your big long shot. Yeah. Jayden was six to one. That's not true.
16:42
I got him at seven to one, and I think he was even plus 750 for folks. Jared Verse, 10 to 1. Congratulations to everybody on Jared Verse. We didn't mention that one.
16:50
Joe Burrow with his second Comeback Player of the Year. He was the shortest of all these at plus 225.
16:56
And then KOC, Kevin O'Connell, 20 to 1, although, uh, although, uh, Cleve got him 28 to 1, so these are more or less accurate with these preseason odds were. But these are draft kings. These are just different shots.
17:04
These are all draft king specific. Yeah. Yeah. All right, you ready for a are we sure? Let's do it. Estamos seguros? Are we sure? You know what?
17:12
I'm gonna skip the first couple ones, 'cause I feel like we did everything voting right. Eh, do it. Do it all. Are, are, are we sure the voters got everything right, Gil? Uh, no, we're not sure.
17:20
[laughs] We're absolutely not sure. Do I need to do that diatribe again? No, no. [laughs] No, I don't. Okay. All right, this did fly u- it flew under the radar a little bit for me. Yeah.
17:29
Are we sure Eli Manning will get into the Hall of Fame? Oh, he'll, uh, the, that's the other thing that happened yesterday. Yeah. He'll absolutely get in the Hall of Fame.
17:35
I think he gets in the Hall of Fame next year, by the way. I do. But I don't think it's that outrageous that he didn't get in in the first class. Uh, Antonio Gates, congratulations. Well deserved.
17:47
Jared Allen, absolutely well deserved.
17:50
Uh, Eric Allen, Sterling Sharpe, I don't think anybody has a problem with any of those four guys getting elected, and maybe even getting elected ahead of Eli Manning, who, let's face it, has a very unique, interesting resume.
18:02
Yeah. Right? Two unbelievable playoff runs, each of which, both of which culminated in an unbelievable win over the Patriots, the most famous of which over the undefeated before that game Patriots, right, in 2007.
18:17
However, Eli Manning, uh, was never an MVP, was never even an All-Pro in his entire career. So it's a very strange sort of paradox with Eli Manning.
18:31
Uh, but to answer your question, yes, I'm absolutely sure he gets in, and he deserves to get in, but I don't think it's an outrage he didn't get in the first year.
18:37
It's just, so what, this is the smallest class since 2005- Yeah... with only four people. It just felt like it's a bit of a, like we We, we made a, a purpose to leave him out this year, right? Maybe they did.
18:50
Maybe they did I don't know. They, people with agendas, man.
18:52
I, I do think that when, when he finally, you know, w- whether it's next year or the year after, when he gets elected, uh, when he gets inducted, finally, when he gets on stage and gets inducted in Canton, his
19:04
speech, because of those great moments, despite the body of work not being the same as, say, let's say somebody else who's up, you know, coming up, the Philip Riverses of the world- Hmm... let's say, right?
19:15
Has much more impact in our, in our psyche than that kind of career. Oh, totally. Yeah. You know? Yeah, totally. So. Um, okay. Here, here's something I've been hearing a lot these past couple weeks, right?
19:25
That the Eagles are a big step up in talent from the Buffalo Bills for the Kansas City Chiefs. We are not sure about that at all. [laughs] Are we sure about that, Gil? No, no. Uh-uh. No. [laughs] All right.
19:36
See, I mean, the Eagles have flaws, too. Yep. You know, I mean, you c- I'm... No, absolutely we're not sure about that. Yeah, I don't know. I, the Eagles- Put respect on the Bill's name... hold on.
19:45
Me and you are both on Chiefs. I don't think... I mean, I don't wanna speak for you. Yeah. Not like it's a crazy big bet for me, but man, I, I think this is a little bit of a weaker opponent than the Buffalo Bills.
19:53
I don't know if it's weaker, but we're certainly not sure it's a step up. Yeah. Phil, by the way, the Rams had the ball with a chance to win two weeks ago- Mm-hmm... or three weeks ago. Mm-hmm. Not exactly, uh- Yeah...
20:03
murderous row of a path to the- No... to the Super Bowl either. Hey, easy. Are we sure the, we're sure the Chiefs can slow down, uh, Saquon Barkley? We're not sure, but we're not sure they can't either. Okay. Yeah.
20:14
Are we sure? Because they have time to prepare. You never know. Are we sure everyone, 'cause they seemingly already are, everyone should be running to bet Dallas Goddard props over? [laughs] I'm not sure.
20:25
[laughs] I know that that's the collective. Everyone's, "Well, they're bad against tight ends, so therefore it must be Dallas..." That's the, that's the breath of the handicap, right?
20:32
Chief's not so good against tight ends. Dallas Goddard, over. I mean, it may work, but we're not sure. No. All right. This was, I thought- Have, have you heard of Spagnuolo before? Yeah. He's pretty good at what he does.
20:41
He's pretty good. He's pretty good. Yeah. They... I thought this was a really interesting conversation we had with Pritch yesterday, both on air and a little bit off air.
20:47
Are we sure it's not that big of a de- deal that Jalen Carter's sick right now? Uh, I thought that was an interesting conversation. Yeah.
20:54
Um, we're not sure, because we don't know the full extent, and you just never know. I mean, he is a unbelievable talent, right? And if he is diminished, or if somehow his sickness spreads- Right...
21:10
in that locker room, uh, oh boy, that would be a thing. And w- and by the way, that would be a historical note, right?
21:16
Like, if, if the Eagles end up losing the Super Bowl by amou- by a, you know, a margin, and we find out that there was some kind of thing, we will always remember it that way.
21:23
Like, "Yeah, remember the Eagles got sick," and that kind of thing. Just like how they, the Eagles won the Super Bowl the first time with the replay rules from the future. You remember? [laughs] Right. Yeah, exactly.
21:32
Yeah. Yeah. I did, I just th- I just thought it was interesting that Pr- Pritch kind of saying, you know, as for us handicapping sports, these team sports, that- It could be a big deal...
21:41
that, yeah, that we almost don't make enough of it- Yeah... as handicappers, of how this can spread around the locker room. Yep. So- Of course, Pritch said that while sick. While saying [laughs] So, yeah. Yeah.
21:49
Because he was on this morning, and he was fine. Oh. Come on, Pritch. And he looked great. [laughs] Oh, glad you're healthy, buddy. All right. Are we sure Isaiah Pacheco won't have a big i- impact on Sunday's result?
21:59
No, because the Chiefs, you, you don't know where it's coming from. It could be anybody. I like that answer. Yeah. But I, I don't think he has a big impact, but- Yeah... I can't rule it out.
22:06
I don't either, 'cause I've bet, you know, I bet Hunt- Right, yeah, Hunt... in a couple ways. Me and you are both on Hunt. Yeah. All right. Are we sure Deion Sanders should be spending another year in college?
22:13
Uh, I don't, I'm not sure about that. I mean, uh, he says out loud that, you know, he doesn't wanna coach pro football, but I don't believe him. I think that if he got the right opportunity, he would do it.
22:25
Um, I do feel like he thinks that people will talk badly about him if he had left Colorado right after Shedeur left, but coaches do that kind of thing all the time. Like, it shouldn't- Yeah... be different for him.
22:37
So no, I'm not sure about that. I'm shocked he's not in the NFL. Hired Marshall Faulk today to be his- Yes... running backs coach. Yes, he did. Is that it? Yep. Estamos seguros? Are we sure?
22:46
Warren Sharp next on Super Bowl 59. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:54
Skill Alexander, uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Yayo, he said, "Four or five votes out of a possible 50 ballots away from cashing on Lamar.
24:02
Despite not winning a numbers game, gets credit for underlining the mispricing late in the season." Thank you for that, Yayo, because that's exactly what we're doing, right?
24:11
We're making bets based on the price itself, and if you fall short just like that, doesn't mean it was a bad bet, even though we fell short at the odds we betted at. Give me my stuffed panda from the CLV store, uh, Gil.
24:23
[laughs] Where's the, where's the CLV store? Yeah. Let's go there. John B., "My favorite bet for Super Bowl, over two and a half players to have a pass attempt at two to one. New York Mess 16.
24:32
If we're talking outfits, what was OBJ wearing?" Oh, I didn't see what Odell Beckham Jr. was wearing. I haven't seen that yet. Yeah, no. Gi- Gil and I were out at dinner. We saw a guy wearing a beret, though.
24:41
Yeah, we did. So that, that's, that's important. That's a good look. Yeah. It's a very good look. Yeah. Abe Garcia, "Been getting, uh, heat about Eli not getting in. He'll get in. Never an MVP.
24:48
No A, no, uh, AP, or considered the best quarterback in any season. Only stat he ever led was interceptions. I like Eli, but not first ballot. Next year isn't a lock either.
24:57
Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, those that missed this year." Abe, I agree with everything you said, and, uh, yeah, might be next year. I think it might be next year, but you're right. It, it might not be.
25:05
Uh, Bruce Dobbins, "But he will get in." Bruce Dobing, and you picked on Rickie Fowler's, uh, camo costume, and now he's a withdrawal before round two. Yeah. Hope you're satisfied with yourself, Kelly.
25:14
He looked like he'd escaped from an episode of Daktari. I didn't tweet it. I just had to answer the tweet, but he is a WD. It g- goes back to what we were talking about with Jaylen Carter, though. I, I mean, this is...
25:23
PGA Tour- Oh, they're all sick... these guys are getting sick all over the place the past few weeks. They're all sick. We'll get to more of your tweets. I wanna get to Warren Sharp, though.
25:30
Uh, we haven't talked to Warren in a long time, and he used to be a stalwart on this show, but then he, he went on to bigger and better things. Uh, you can follow him at Sharp Football on Twitter.
25:38
Sharpfootballanalysis.com is where you can check out all his work. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Warren? Hey, I'm doing great.
25:47
Really excited about this Super Bowl, and, uh, happy to talk about it with you, Gil. Hey, man. L- let me... So you, you...
25:52
W- we know you from probably most on Twitter is formations and, and how you break down games and how you see things going. What do you believe... I mean, or how do you believe Super Bowl LIX goes game script-wise?
26:05
Well, I think the one surprising thing, a lot of people look at this Kansas City Chiefs offense and they don't see a lot of points that they've scored, and they think that this is a mediocre offense, maybe one of the w- down years for Andy Reid.
26:16
This offense drives the football into the red zone at a 40% clip, which is the best for any Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes offense since 2018. They're getting down there a ton. It's the second highest rate in the NFL.
26:28
Their issue is they're not scoring touchdowns when they get down into the red zone, but now they're going up against Vic Fangio's defense. And Vic Fangio has played Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid eight different games.
26:39
I'm sure you've heard some of these stats, but maybe what you haven't heard is the production overall of this Chiefs offense against Vic Fangio inside of the red zone.
26:49
They're driving down there into the red zone at a 37% clip against Fangio and all other defenses, so it's the same rate.
26:56
But when they get into the red zone against Fangio, Gil, they're scoring touchdowns only 37% of their trips as opposed to 62% against any other defense from 2019 to 2023, and they're scoring a goal to go touchdowns on only 38% of their trips against Fangio versus 79% versus everyone else.
27:16
So I think the Chiefs are going to be able to move the football, even though the Eagles defense is good, down into the red zone, but I do feel like they're gonna be ultimately settling for too many field goals down inside of the red zone.
27:26
So I think that's something to watch when the Chiefs have the football. When the Eagles have the football, the key question that I have is how will we get another miracle out of Steve Spagnuolo in this run defense?
27:38
The last two years, he's gone up against the number one best rushing offense in the NFL in the Super Bowl. Two years ago, it was this very Eagles team. Last year, it was Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers.
27:49
Those two offenses ranked number one in running the football from an EPA success and yards per carry perspective in those years. But when they went up against Fangio in the Super Bowl, they got absolutely stifled.
28:01
They were averaging in the 3.6 yard per carry range. The longest run for CMC was only 11 yards in last year's Super Bowl. So he performed miracles that you wouldn't otherwise expect.
28:13
I'm just waiting to see what tricks he has up his sleeve to try to slow down Saquon Barkley in this one.
28:17
The, the first part of that, when the, uh, the Chiefs have the ball and the v- the Fangio bend don't break, if you will, the red zone defense. Mm-hmm. Do you find that that is the part...
28:27
I mean, if we broke down football in, on all kinds of ways, but is red zone offense and red zone defense and the conversion rate therein the thing that most handicappers miss? Can it be distilled to that kind of thing?
28:40
It is, it is a, a factor. The trick is most people don't put too much weight into it because they say 80 yards of the field is more important than the final 20 yards of the field.
28:50
But the issue is the way that this, uh, Vic Fangio defense plays, they are forcing you to be perfect up and down the field.
28:57
They're allowing you underneath stuff, but they're not gonna allow any explosives, and then they're gonna choke you out like a, like a boa constrictor down inside of the red zone and prevent you from scoring.
29:06
So that's the type of defense that you have to look at very differently than most other defenses in the NFL.
29:12
The Kansas City Chiefs team, this is a very unique offense that we haven't seen from, uh, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid much in the past.
29:19
Out of 192 team seasons since nine, uh, since 2019, Gil, this team is throwing the ball short of the line of scrimmage at the second highest rate.
29:29
They're unlike most of their other teams, uh, that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have had, and it actually is the perfect matchup against Fangio because they don't want the explosive.
29:38
You know, some years past with Tyreek Hill, they'd get frustrated if they couldn't get a big play down the field, and they have to dink and donk, and they would ultimately fail. This team, that's what they're built on.
29:47
They're built on converting on third downs. They're built on setting themselves up for makeable third downs, converting it, possessing the ball, moving the ball down the field.
29:54
This is why they're so difficult from a, a statistical perspective to really assess their greatness because they're not playing by everybody else's rules.
30:03
They're not really trying to, uh, be efficient on early downs and have explosive plays.
30:08
They just wanna possess the football, and they just wanna march it down the field, and they've just struggled down inside of the red zone.
30:15
So that is the part of this game I think that's going to really determine who wins and loses, is can Vic hold up against these guys down in the red zone. All right, so brass tacks this for us, if you would, Warren.
30:26
Where are the bets? Yeah. Well, one of them, a lot of people maybe glean from how I'm angling here, and that is my favorite bet of the entire Super Bowl, Gil, is Harrison Butker over one and a half field goals.
30:39
And this was one that I originated and, and a bunch of other people have sort of, uh, taken the lead on this one after me, and that's fine. That's totally fine because I think it's a great bet, and they should.
30:50
Right now, from what I am seeing, if this is the correct number, Circa has a minus 150 on the over one and a half. We were getting in at minus 120. Minus 150 is still the best line in market that I'm seeing.
31:01
I will absolutely love Harrison Butker over one and a half at minus 150. I would bet it considerably higher than that as well. Um, I just think he has made 100% of his field goals. Uh, Andy Reid implicitly trusts him.
31:14
He's made 100% of his field goals in the playoffs the last two years, is what I was meaning to say. Um, he's kicked a ton of field goals against Vic Fangio's defense, if you look back at the statistics there.
31:24
Uh, and he- A lot of people are, you know, I know you're a Commanders fan, and, uh, the Commanders went for it on all, every fourth down, and they're playing the Lions, who go for it on a ton of fourth downs.
31:32
The Philadelphia Eagles go for it a ton of fourth downs. Andy Reid, in the big moments, is going to depend upon his kicker if he needs to. They're not gonna just go for it on forced fourth downs that aren't plus EV.
31:43
They're gonna rely on Butker to make them. And consider this also, last factor here, Butker plays outdoors in Kansas City.
31:49
He's been kicking rocks for months, and now he's in a warm dome finally, gets to kick the ball here. I think he makes at least two field goals. I even altered this one, Gil.
31:58
I took three-plus and even four-plus field goals made by Harrison Butker.
32:03
Another one that I like because of the way that I think the Philadelphia Eagles are gonna play offensively, they're the type of team that runs the ball at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
32:12
And as a result, they have faced the second-most third down attempts of any offense in the NFL this year. I believe that's going to continue on here.
32:20
A lot of people think that they're gonna come out throwing the football. They only threw the football in Super- in the Super Bowl two years ago after the first quarter.
32:27
They tried to run it in the first quarter, didn't have success, resorted to the pass. I think they're gonna come out here with Saquon Barkley, ca- let him try to carry the team.
32:35
They're gonna be forced into a lot of third downs here. All the teams that are going up against the Chiefs, the Bills last week, the Texans the week before, face a lot of third downs against the team.
32:44
I like Eagles over five-and-a-half third down conversions. That was at plus money a couple of days ago. I'm not sure where it is now.
32:50
I also think the Philadelphia Eagles go for it and make at least two fourth downs, so there's a prop, uh, over one-and-a-half fourth down conversions for the Philadelphia Eagles.
32:58
I just think they're gonna be forced into a lot of those situations as well. Um, one other one that I think is a, is a fun one that you might be able to find, a team to score the longest touchdown.
33:08
I think that's going to be the Philadelphia Eagles here. They've done that with consistency through most of the year. That was at minus 110 a couple of days ago.
33:15
Uh, not sure wha- again, I don't know the exact price on it now. Uh, and I like Juju Smith-Schuster a little bit over his low receiving yard total. Oh, okay.
33:24
Uh, by the way, that was simpatico with Mike Pritchard yesterday, the Juju one. Um- Yeah... Warren, we got it all in. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. You got it, Gil. Enjoy the Super Bowl. You too.
33:34
Warren Sharp, everybody, @sharpfootball on the old Twitter machine. We'll come back. We'll talk about MVP by position, all of our bets. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:44
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Attention all serious sports bettors, if you're thinking about playing in the 2025 Circa Million or Survivor contests, now's the time to get ahead of the game with Winners Circle Proxy and VSiN.
34:06
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34:16
And as a bonus, you'll get access to expert contest strategies from past winners and VSiN pros. Don't wait. Head to winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin. That's winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin. It's Gil Alexander. We get tweets.
34:31
I feed you the book. Always appreciate the feedback. Jamie Leyva, "The coin toss crazies betting on a coin toss makes me think of Crack Man's friend that could manipulate the outcome of a coin. That story was great.
34:42
Have a great weekend, gentlemen." Oh, gosh, yeah. Do you remember that one? Yeah. The dude that could call- The, what, the f-... the coin toss in midair. The Flipper, right? The Flipper. Was that what he was called?
34:51
And it was, it didn't, it wasn't his coin. You could use your coin. It was just amazing. Um, Steven Brosek1870 says, "Last day to get tweets in before it's 1-2-3 Cancun for Gil. Thanks for the great football season."
35:04
[laughs] I can't believe it's already the Super Bowl, right? [laughs] Um, no, I'm, I'll be back on Monday. We'll hear Sunday. Sunday. Kelly and I will be here Sunday- That's right...
35:12
as part of the big shebang, the VSiN Big Shebang all day, and then I always do Monday morning a Super Bowl recap show, and then it might be one, two [laughs] and it might be one- [laughs]... two, three Cancun.
35:21
Um, this is a Dgen Southern Gen, "Happy Super Bowl eve, fellas. Was hoping you'd ask Fezzik something for me." I will later when he's on.
35:27
Uh, "Fezz mentioned on your show that he usually looks to bet the first quarter total under in the Super Bowl. Is he betting it again this year, given teams' familiarity?" We will ask him that.
35:35
Steve the Proxy, "I bet enough on Lamar MVP at 11 to 1 to double my bankroll. Been a Bills fan for 30-plus years." Oh. "Never hedged with Allen. Goff was my original bet. Lamar was the hedge.
35:47
Brutal feeling when your guy wins but your losing bet ruins the moment. When betting goes wrong." Oh, man. Yeah, that's tough, man. Man. Sorry about that. That is rough, Steve. Yeah. Sorry, man.
35:57
Uh- So- I mean, that was, Matt had the same strategy, Matt Brown- Yeah, Matt Brown... but he went Josh Allen instead of Lamar with kind of the, the hedge thinking with Goff. Yeah.
36:05
Charles in Connecticut at Hoop Homer, uh, 'cause I, uh, introduced Warren Sharp. I was like, "He used to do a Numbers Game, and then he went on to bigger and better things."
36:12
Uh, he says, "Are there really bigger and better things than being a regular guest on a Numbers Game?" It's a great question. Excellent point, Charles in Connecticut. In fact, are we sure? Are we sure?
36:21
"Estamos seguro, que?" Uh, Will Hill, by the way, commenting on the Brosek thing. He says, "Some, some say the season does go by fast." That's Will's thing.
36:29
Like, even at week four, he goes, "I can't believe it's week four already." I'm that guy, too. [laughs] He's that guy.
36:33
Uh, Ice Cold Gambler Jason, "Now that I hit Kevin O'Connell at 28 to 1, I'm rolling it into the Chiefs and Hopkins props, 60 to 1 to have two-plus touchdowns. Let's go."
36:42
By the way, that is the one thing said this week that will not leave my head, the Jason Weingarten D-Hop pick. Yeah, I'm with you, too. I'll, I'm with you, too. I, I have- It just feels like that...
36:52
on my list that you guy- you guys always make fun of, of bets to make or there's- Yes, that's what Kelly does... there's also a sub list of bets to consider more. [laughs] And, uh, that's- Bets- That one's on there.
37:01
Bets to consider. I don't actually have it written that way, but it's the, uh- Let me just, let me just ask you a question-... subs... uh, 'cause I want, I'm trying to define where on the spectrum you lie.
37:08
[laughs] Do the, do the bets, do the bets to consider elevate to bets to make before you actually make them?
37:14
Yeah, uh, w- well, usually it's just I'm gonna take the time to research just a little bit more, and then if I like it, I'll pull the trigger. So I don't know if I actually write it down on the list.
37:22
Mark Geiger, in-house attorney for a Numbers Game, "Warren's Twitter feed is incredibly valuable for in-play.
37:27
Great to hear him again on a Numbers game, was a main stalwart and can't miss his spot in the early years of VSiN. Miss those days, and most of all, the mishpocha from a point south of your current digs."
37:37
Mike Boreal, "Gilly, Willy, and Todd," talking about the Megapods, "story of three gamblers, their hijinks and tribulations, stories about a Yom Kippur massacre, bad beats, a now famous Hail Miriam, and more.
37:48
The alternate title, Two Jews and a Ginger, received pushback from the ginger community." [laughs] Yes, it did. The gingers were not happy.
37:55
Uh, Eric Berg, Eric Berg, "I think you have to consider Plunkett," oh, talking about the, uh, Eli Manning stuff. "I think you have to consider Plunkett when thinking about Eli's Hall of Fame chances.
38:04
Two Super Bowl wins doesn't guarantee you entry into the Hall of Fame."
38:08
Eric, I hear what you're saying, but the nature of Eli Manning's Super Bowl wins against two huge Patriots teams, again, um, the, the biggest of which was that 2017 that went undefeated into the big game, um, I don't think that can be compared to maybe anything.
38:25
And so Eli's two Super Bowl wins were not just any garden variety Super Bowl wins, let's put it that way. Um, okay, let's get to, uh, we wanna get to our bets. Did you wanna do the Gatorade dissertation first?
38:36
Oh, I got, I got a couple things first- Okay...
38:37
'cause I did, I did just realize, to answer your question, um, there is one bet that did move from the bets to consider list yesterday, and it has now made the bets to make list. Uh-huh.
38:47
I brought it up to you last night. It was bets to consider after Zach Cohen bringing up the Spurs thing- Yeah...
38:53
and then me, you know, rolling my eyes and then c- being completely on board, but I'm not going as heavy as he is, so I needed to figure out exactly how I wanted to bet it.
39:01
How I will be betting it sometime this weekend, Gil, is Spurs to participate in the play-in, and then a little bit of a sprinkle on Spurs to make the playoffs. So- Okay... moved up that list.
39:10
For those who missed it, Zach Cohen came on the show yesterday and gave out Spurs 100 to 1 to win the West. Yeah, I'm not, not going that far. Right. I'm not going that far.
39:17
Um- But you admit when he first told you that, you thought he was ridiculous, and then within 45 minutes you're like, "Man." And then I watched De'Aaron Fox and Wemby on the court together- Yeah...
39:24
and I was like, "I really think it might be as simple as this, is all this guy needs is an actual star player."
39:30
And I'm not saying De'Aaron F- Fox is a superstar or an MVP caliber player, but he's good enough to help take Wemby and this team to the next level. And yes, woo, woo, woo, woo, breaking news sort of.
39:41
Um- What the heck was that? I don't know. I needed a sounder. Oh, okay. Um, Gatorade color, Gil, on the move over the last 24 hours. Big move on Gatorade. Big move on Gatorade color.
39:50
We are at minus 200 over at FanDuel on yellow or green to be the Gatorade color. Somebody knows something. So I mean, someone knows something. I don't know if there's, uh, it can't be just betting.
40:02
DraftKings, this I think is from this morning, minus 130. They're out to minus 175 now on yellow/green.
40:08
What I think it means, Gil, is someone thinks they know or someone knows what the Chiefs are doing, 'cause this is the go, obviously the go-to Eagles color that we would think.
40:19
So I, I think you're thinking, you're thinking that there's a chance yellow goes for the Chiefs this year, which would break their streak of two years in a row going purple. Hmm. Is this ha- does this have you rattled?
40:30
No, I didn't get involved. You didn't get involved. This, I got a lot of questions about this this year.
40:33
I did not get involved, because we saw the Chiefs go purple the last two years, and the last time the Eagles won, they did go yellow. I, I'm not saying green, 'cause it's not green, it's yellow.
40:43
Um- You know, you know, if, if I may interrupt you. Yeah. You know with the novelty props thing that has, uh, manifested, remember with the Kendrick Lamar stuff, the first song? Mm-hmm.
40:50
I'm like, well, he'd be, he'd be just the artist to do something strange at the beginning and then move on to some of the songs we picked. Uh, if the leaked setlist that I have seen is true- Yeah.
41:03
Oh, I saw those odds move a lot, yeah... nobody's winning. Like, the song that I saw on the setlist going first has never been offered by any of it. Oof. [laughs] So- Yeah... good day for the book on that one then.
41:16
Which is, and then, so then you're wondering, did they take it down? No, of course they kept it up, because then they're just stealing everybody's money. Right. It's not even an option. Yeah. So we'll see.
41:25
I don't know if it's true or not. We, I think it was rehearsal last night or it was rehearsal tonight, I'm not sure. Um, shall we review our bets? Yeah, let's roll through all of them, yeah.
41:32
I'm sorry, did, uh, did you have more to say about Gatorade? I'm sorry. No, no, no, I was just saying I didn't get involved this year because blue is always the, that's always my, my big, uh, one that I go to.
41:39
But I know neither one of these teams is going blue, or I think so. I apologize for stopping your Gatorade flow. I mean, if it gets out to, like, 10 to 1, I might be a l- involved a little bit with blue.
41:48
[laughs] But I don't expect that. All right, uh, I am on, uh, again, national anthem was way under the, uh, number we got it at again. So, uh, I had it under 125 seconds.
41:58
Last I looked it was 120 and a half, uh, on the national anthem length. So we're well ahead of that for Jon Batiste's national anthem. The Kendrick Lamar first songs I had were Not Like Us and Swimming Pools.
42:08
Just talked about that, how it might not be any song that is even listed, which, again, was always my, was always my worry when it came to Kendrick Lamar in sort of that, uh, Coldplay sense, what they did, uh, some years ago, where they played, like, two bars of another song and then rolled on to everything else.
42:25
I do have the Chiefs. The very first thing I did, though, was, uh, two Sundays ago bet the Chiefs right after the championship games at minus one and a half.
42:32
Will this still go, as so many have speculated, to the Eagles being favorites? We'll get Steve Fezzik's opinion on that momentarily. So fascinating to me. Still Chiefs favorites.
42:42
Uh, and then Kareem Hunt, Chiefs first touchdown score plus 425, and the overall touchdown score at nine to one.
42:49
So I have Kareem Hunt two ways, first touchdown score for the Chiefs, and then basically a little more than double that in terms of your bang for your buck as the first overall touchdown score. You, sir.
42:58
Yeah, this is, I, the, the, the flipping favorites thing is really interesting to me, Gil, 'cause it's, it's, I mean, there, there's major arbitrage opportunities this Super Bowl if that happens, right?
43:07
Like, there, it was plus money that you coulda gotten on the Eagles on the money line. I mean, it's, it wouldn't be a ton, but still. They took down the national anthem length finally. Really? Yep.
43:16
So, so, okay- That's off the board too... so, so that's out there then. Yeah. Um, okay, for me, AFC to win the Super Bowl, baby. Let's go. AFC. [laughs] Didn't get my hat, but let's go.
43:24
Um, didn't buy off this future at all. It's not, it's not a huge one, but it's, uh, I'm not buying off on the Eagles. I still lean the Chiefs, uh, side.
43:32
Did add with Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP, though, plus 125. Thought that price was too good to pass up, especially where the money line was at at the time with the Chiefs.
43:40
Uh, I'm on Worthy over five and a half rushing yards. I know that's a very popular one, but we've seen, we've seen the Chiefs get, uh, wide receivers involved before in past Super Bowls running the ball.
43:48
We've seen Worthy be very active in the ru- uh, rush game here recently, so I like the over five and a half rushing yards. Kareem Hunt, me and you, uh, simpatico there.
43:55
We're expecting big h- things from him, over 42 and a half rushing yards from him. Also went Pacheco, uh, under on his longest rush, eight and a half yards for me. And then a couple game props for you.
44:06
Both teams to score one plus touchdown in each half, yes, minus 115. Will there be a two-point conversion attempt? Yes, plus 110, Gil, and I think I'm adding to that bet. Oh, look at you. I think I'm adding, Gil.
44:19
[clears throat] Okay. Um, wow, you get feisty about it. We'll eventually get to that MVP by position thing. Maybe, maybe when Felika's, right before Felika comes on, maybe we'll do it, um, eventually.
44:28
Steve Fezzik on deck. Football Fridays with Fezzik. It's a numbers game at Visa. The Sports Betting Network.
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