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Feb 7, 2025
A Numbers Game | February, 7, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | February, 7, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, uh, here as well.
0:21
Steve Fezzik standing by, Chris Fallica still to come this hour. Uh, we have listener questions for Fezz. Uh, we get tweets that beat in the book. Let's start right there.
0:28
Andy V, Andy Vigil, "You often talk about gambling talk being too close to the sun. This awards voting tally is exhibit one.
0:35
Darnold had literally zero shot to win Comeback Player of the Year, and it ended behind Dobbins." Uh, Joe Burrow first, Dobbins number two, is what he's saying. Uh, Kelly Bidlin, he says, "You should have bet more."
0:45
Um, we actually mentioned this earlier, uh, Andy V.
0:48
That was the biggest sort of, uh, difference between what we talked about or what ended up resulting, that JK Dobbins, correctly by the way, ended up second place to Joe Burrow. Sam Darnold was in fact third.
1:00
Nemesis Enforcer, "Used to have the Eli Hall of Fame argument with a Giants fan. His season numbers offset the gravitas of the Super Bowl wins. His lows are low." Nemesis Enforcer, no argument.
1:11
I think everybody sort of gets the Eli thing. I think he'll get in, I just don't think there's a problem with him not getting in on the first ballot.
1:17
Jim Devitt, "Thanks for helping me to a profitable football season, but let's start focusing on tennis and golf, where we can make real money."
1:24
Oh, and Nemesis also, uh, adds, he says that, uh, profitable son one, he says, "Kendrick did an Apple Music interview and said the show was gonna be storytelling. Sounds like a discography." Oh, no. Oh, no.
1:35
Hey, plus money, I plus money. Congratulations on your, uh, your big parlay hit. Nicely done. Eric Berg, "Numbers game never disappoints.
1:43
We go from a full Super Bowl breakdown from Sharp Football, Warren Sharp, to only be overshadowed by a mind-blowing dissertation on Gatorade from V Kelly Michael Bidlin. Let's have our Super Bowl Sunday.
1:52
Feeling great after a 40-1 Offensive Player of the Year Saquon win." Wow, 40-1, nice job. Uh, Banshees of Atlantic City, and I think this does, just does crystallize it, Banshees.
2:02
"Listening to VSiN this week, it seems most people picking the Eagles say it's because the Eagles have a better team.
2:06
Most people picking the Chiefs say it's because Reid and Mahomes are better at drawing pentagrams [laughs] on the floor and sacrificing goats." Uh, yeah, kind of. Sort of like that. And finally, Mr.
2:16
Postman, "Man, I was five minutes too early. I just took a shot at All Right being the first song at 33 to one. It was a protest anthem in 2015.
2:22
It resonates with Kendrick's core audience, considering the temperature of things right now." Yeah, we'll all find out together.
2:29
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, and he has been a stalwart on this show all, uh, each and every, I should say, Friday during football season, and we hope to have him beyond as well.
2:40
It's Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports. But don't go to his Twitter. Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino- Avoid my Twitter, that is, that is Eagles only watch...
2:46
he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. You stepped on your intro, man. Off to a bad start. [laughs] That's what happens when you don't wear earphones. That's okay.
2:59
We'll, we'll, you'll know for next time. Uh, thanks for being here, man. Happy Super Bowl. Happy Super Bowl weekend to you. I, you know, I don't feel the buzz in Vegas. I haven't seen one Chief's jersey. Mm.
3:10
I haven't seen one Eagle's jersey. It's a good point. Rooms are inexpensive, and, and I think we're having a Super Bowl hangover from last year being here. That's interesting.
3:21
And I also think the matchup isn't, uh, they're still the two great teams, right?
3:26
And obviously, a three-peat is upon us if the Chiefs win, but I do feel like it's n- it doesn't inspire people in a way that some other random team, like Detroit or Washington, might have done so.
3:38
And especially in terms of f- you know, first time in a long time Super Bowl participants, my goodness, that brings in everybody, you know? Yeah. It's like, if you can't go to the game, come to Vegas.
3:49
Um, can you imagine how many, like, Washington jerseys we would've seen- Oh... had they made it? Um, are you kidding me? I'd, I'd be wearing one all week, and then I'd have gone to New Orleans.
3:58
What, uh, what are the room prices going for here in town? So I, a buddy of mine just c- was coming into town. I, I hooked him up, but he was like, "I can stay at the Stratosphere for $10."
4:08
[laughs] I, I could- Do you wanna stay there? $10... I can stay at, I, I can stay, he says, "At South Point for 130, or I can..." He's staying Saturday night through Wednesday, so these are blended rates.
4:18
It's more on the weekend. But he, this shocked me. Encore, he's like, "$289." I was like, "Really? I would've thought $589." So it's crazy. By the way, Kelly shot me a text that I didn't save.
4:28
"Remember the open for Stevie," he said. [laughs] For your, your Fezzik Fridays open. By the way- Oh, well, by, you know, by April, I'll probably get it straight. Hey, Al, is, uh, so you'll be here, uh, through April?
4:38
Will you come through the off season for this? A, a, if I don't curse too much, then- Let's go. Yes. Let's do it. Yeah, yeah, it's fair. Try to keep the cursing down. All right, let me ask you the first question here.
4:46
So the Chiefs are still a tick of a favorite.
4:49
Do you believe that by game time, as so many have said, and we're now what, 12 of the 14 days into it, do you believe that the Eagles will end up being the favorite in the end? Yes.
5:01
Listen, right now I'm gonna move the Super Bowl line. Set up Eagles plus one. [laughs] Here we go. We are betting Eagles plus one. Go. We are betting the Eagles plus one. Blue Horseshoe likes Eagles plus one.
5:14
The Eagles have to close the favorite, and here's why. We saw all the sharp analytic guys. I get it, there's public money also, but there's public money on both sides, on the Eagles and on Kansas City.
5:25
Don't bet against God. I don't disagree with that. But we just saw all the money come in against Kansas City and Arrowhead. They're hosting Buffalo.
5:32
I heard, excellent job by Warren Sharp, by you and Kelly first hour, talking about, "Hmm, do we really know that the Eagles are, you know, that much better than Buffalo?" Well, they don't have to be better than Buffalo.
5:43
If they're the same as Buffalo, and Buffalo was a pick them in Arrowhead, well, now the game's in New Orleans, and there's gonna be, like, 75% of the fans are gonna be Eagles fans.
5:52
So instead of Kansas City having a home field advantage, they're gonna have a slight home crowd disadvantage.
5:57
That's worth, like, two points, which means if that game closed, pick- Kansas City minus half, that means KC should be plus one half, thus money must come on the Eagles.
6:06
They will not be favored when this game kicks o- th- th- they, Kansas City will not be favored when the game kicks off. You said something interesting. You say a lot of interesting things, Steve.
6:13
I don't mean to distill it to just one interesting thing that you said, but something, uh... You said that props have also led you to believe that this is w- a sign that it's going that way? Yes.
6:24
So let's look at the number of first down props. This is fascinating. So the Eagles are supposed to get 21. Kansas City is supposed to get 20 and a half. Very, very close.
6:34
But now let's, let's think about this a little bit. The Eagles have a, a home run hitter at running back, Kareem Hunt. You could beat him in a 40. [laughs] All right?
6:42
Um, AJ Brown- Yeah, he hadn't seen me do a 40, but okay. Yeah. Is, is, is- Yeah... is the playmaker. Uh, do we really think... Mahomes doesn't throw deep.
6:50
I mean, maybe Worthy could break away and get, get, get a long, um, completion.
6:55
But, um, if the Eagles are gonna get the more of the dy- uh, of the explosive plays, and the Eagles are gonna get more first downs, and it's reflected in the yardage.
7:04
The Eagles are supposed to gain, like, 388 yards, and I think KC was 371. It's like a 17-yard disparity. Well, then unless Kansas City wins the turnovers, they should be the underdog in this game. Hmm. Okay.
7:18
And Warren Sharp just said they're not gonna be good in the red zone either. And they're not gonna be good in the red zone either. Okay. Uh, let me just ask you this, though, 'cause we...
7:27
This has come up, and I wanna make sure we get this in before we move on to other things. Exchanges, if you have access to exchanges, this is the time to, to go there, right? Exactly right.
7:37
So and when we say exchanges, what are we talking about? It's like when we take two, two guys, like opposite sides of a game. This is at Profit X. It's at Sport Trade. It's at, at Couchy. Um, it's at Forecasters.
7:48
There's two... 2025 is gonna be the rise of the exchanges, and the exchanges are so good on these standalone games.
7:55
I just looked at one of these recently, and they were offering minus 109 on Kansas City, and the Eagles were plus 108.9. [laughs] It was like [laughs] a t- it wasn't a one cent straddle. It was a 10th of a cent straddle.
8:10
Wow. Wow.
8:10
My goodness, and so for everyone who's still betting, and all the brick-and-mortar books and then traditional books, there's still gonna be a place for them because, like, uh, when you're betting all these props and everything else, you're gonna have to bet it at a traditional book.
8:23
But these exchanges, where they really are great is, like, the finals of an Aussie Open. You know, tha- those sort of bets where there's a standalone big game like the Super Bowl on Sunday.
8:34
Let's take a couple, uh, listener tweet questions that from, from earlier. Russell Ambrose, this is sort of what we were talking about before. I, I kind of preemptively answered it.
8:42
He says, "Can you discuss or talk with Fezz about which is a better bet, Chief's money line minus 108 or Chief's minus one and a half plus 106?"
8:52
My guess was you would override all that and just say, because of overtime rules, absolutely take Chief's money line if they're the favorite.
8:59
Yeah, so the, the actual math there is that you're, um, when you're talking about on or off the one, I would say normally I'd be willing to buy that half point.
9:08
Eh, I'd pay, like, five and a half cents for it in a regular season game.
9:12
Here, I think I'd be willing to pay seven and a half cents more because of the chance of the overtime, you know, landing one if they both get a touchdown, and in your example, I think it's 14 cents is the differential.
9:23
14 cents for one, a one and a half point difference. Well, uh, well, actually a one point because they can't tie, so it's basically- Oh, right. For one... minus a half versus- That's right... minus one and a half, right.
9:31
So because of that, if it was a r- That's a great point. In a regular season I have to fig- figure in the tie possibility, so yes, I would play it minus the, um, the minus 114, I'd play the money line.
9:42
How about this one? Dgen Southern Gen, "Happy Super Bowl eve, fellas. Was hoping you'd ask Fezzik something for me.
9:47
Fezz mentioned on your show that he usually looks to bet the first quarter total under in the Super Bowl. Is he betting that again this year given the teams' familiarity?" So y- uh, uh, I like slow-starting Super Bowls.
10:00
All right? So, uh, this is my first official play. Kelly, I didn't send these to you before, and I apologize for that, or if I did, I don't remember because I was celebrating my good fortune this week.
10:09
Um, I'm gonna- Which we'll get to. Yes. Yes. I'm gonna bet will both teams score in the first quarter? I'm gonna bet the no, okay?
10:17
No on both teams to score in the first quarter, and I think it's, it's superior to the under nine and a half. Now, the vig's, like, minus 140. Now, here's why.
10:26
Obviously I'm gonna throw myself, you know, on the train tracks if it lands three-three, so the first quarter would go under, but I'll lose because then I would lose if they both scored. But look at all my paths I have.
10:36
This is better than playing under nine and a half because what if it's 10-nothing at the end of the first quarter? What if it's 14-nothing or 17-nothing?
10:43
All I need is one team to struggle on offense in the first quarter for me to cash my bet, and frankly, I love this bet in championship games. Teams tend to play closer to the vest.
10:53
Look no further than Notre Dame, Ohio State. Both teams got the ball, marched all the way down the field, and scored touchdowns.
11:00
W- we still won this bet because Ohio State didn't get it in the end zone until the s- very start of the second quarter. Yes.
11:05
In, in Stevie Luckbox fac- uh, fashion, they, they waited till after the clock went to zero before they did that. I ran great from 1993 to 2012. From 2012 to 2019, I ran terrible, and since then I've run great again.
11:21
[laughs] There's variance in this. I actually mentioned this yesterday. That's- It's unbelievable... it's an incredible thing. All right, uh, more of Steve Fezzik's Super Bowl 59 bets that he's willing to share.
11:31
Uh, we'll talk about the jackpot he hit just a couple days ago 'cause he's the ultimate luck box, this kid. I call you kid. Is that okay? Is that all good? I'll take it.
11:40
At least in this stretch from 2019 to today, as he just defined his range of luck boxitude. More with Fezzik on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network Here you go with your exchanges here, Stevie. Sports books stack the odds against you.
12:05
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12:12
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12:21
For example, right now, the money line on Kansas City's -108, Philly +107. That's tough to beat. You can even request your own odds and set the price you want.
12:29
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12:39
Download ProfitX today and use code VSIIN to get started. Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Love you guys. Best listeners in the, uh, in the game.
12:50
Um, so acco- Russell Ambrose: "So according to Fez, if you like Chiefs money line, wait, because a better number than -108 will show." So shines a good deed in a weary world. Someone is paying attention out there.
13:03
Bold prediction, I think at ProfitX... By the way, they say you get a 10 to 20% better. I would argue you might get a 100 to 200% better. Yeah. And, and here's, here's why.
13:14
Like, literally, uh, I think you're gonna get Kansas City at ProfitX at, like, -103 at post. All right? So let's say the break-even bet was at -105 on Kansas City, but here in Vegas maybe you have to lay -110, okay?
13:28
Wow, now it's, now it's a, an infinite better bet because one bet is a losing bet and the other bet's a winning bet. ProfitX, 40-plus states. Nevada not one of them. It's amazing. Yeah. You people never gonna understand.
13:40
You're just our guests here in Nevada. [laughs] You wanna get, you wanna get licensed and regulated? You gotta play ball. Y'all, y'all are just our guests. [laughs] Uh, Trip Tepper.
13:47
People love this Eli Manning stuff, too. The case for Eli to make the Hall of Fame, it's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Stats.
13:53
Name a Super Bowl, uh, three win got him in the hall despite 220 career picks and 173 career touchdowns. Eli's two Super Bowl runs, especially 2007, were historic. I agree with you on that, Trip.
14:04
And then Brian Shaffer, uh, talking about our Benching match, uh, Brian Shaffer is one to immediately if something goes wrong, go crazy. He goes, "Taking Benching was like donating money."
14:13
Well, she's up a break in the second set. Let's not get crazy yet. Um, okay, you won a jackpot, sir. Do we have a picture of this? Have we, have we, uh, turned it around yet, guys?
14:24
Uh, this is, uh, Stevie Fezzik winning, what was it? T- t- 28 large? What did you win? 20. 20,000. 20,000. Yeah. $5, um, nine six Jacks or Better. Look at you. Look at this.
14:36
You only have to play 100 hours to get one of these, so, you know. And you, and you played how much? Uh, 10 minutes. 10 minutes. [laughs] I mean, obviously I've been playing- Yeah...
14:44
more than that, but not really that much more. So it's just, like, this is an example. Like, sometimes you just r- you run good and you get lucky. You gotta recognize this is an aberration.
14:53
Like, I was talking to B- I, I, like, Bill knows more about this, the crack man, than I do with the video poker, but he does this all the time.
14:59
He doesn't hit any royals, he, as he tells me, but he's like, you know, it's just you got a little free time and the like and I, and I do it because I love Caesars Palace and I love having Seven Star status, and they're having a seven-time point week.
15:12
So I'm like, "Okay, give me, give me some points. Let me, you know, matriculate my way down the field towards getting that." Mm-hmm. Yes. So if I said to you, uh, you could only have one of these two things.
15:22
You can only, uh, because nothing makes you happier than Seven Stars and sort of, um, not manipulating, but, uh, but working the system in your favor, so you get a bunch of, you know, so you maximize all the perks of everything in life here in Vegas.
15:36
If I could only say, if I said to you, "Stevie, you can only have one of two things: Seven Stars status or, uh, calling people dumbos on Twitter," which is the one of the two that you would give up? Oh, Seven Stars.
15:47
I could, I, I- You'd, you'd keep the Seven Stars. I will. You know what? I am, I am...
15:51
By the way, I, I, the reason I call people dumbos is, is that it, it, it's kind of like, you know, people think of the little flying elephant, and it's- Right...
15:57
not as- So it's not as harsh as it could be is what you're- Exactly. [laughs] You're so sweet It's a very, it's a, it's a kinder, warmer way- Uh... of telling someone they might be misguided on something.
16:05
Seven Star status, though, just for, for those, the greatest thing ever? Yeah. I mean, in terms of, like, the value, it's worth, like, $10,000.
16:13
So b- j- just as an example, if you're a golfer, you can get four free rounds of golf at Rio Secco and Cascada. Um, you get a free vacation where you get airfare, they pick you up in a limo.
16:23
You wanna go up to Tahoe for a free vacation, they give you a $500 folio credit. Um, uh, you can go on a cruise. You can go to the Bahamas for free.
16:31
So th- now, all this is only worth stuff if y- if you're gonna use it, but I can tell you, the free rooms in Vegas, like, I got a buddy coming in town. Yeah. So boom, he was gonna stay at the Stratosphere [laughs] Ugh...
16:42
um, or South Point. I'm like, "Let me just set you up at Caesars." And also that I gotta tell you, I'm not, I was, for 30 years, I w- I was a dumbo. I was, I never valeted my car. I was like, "Can't do it." Mm-hmm.
16:52
It takes forever to get that car. That VIP valet on the side of Caesars off Flamingo Road, it is like parking your car at the front of the casino. It really is.
17:03
I mean, you liter- you literally, like, I walk out, they're like, "Mr. Fezzik, here's your keys." Yeah, you're right there, you know?
17:08
It's, it, a- and it's right next to the gym, and because of that, it's right next to the check-in area. People wait an hour and a half sometimes to check in.
17:16
I can check in, you know, when I'm staying at Caesars, in two minutes. It's just, it, it, uh, I'd rather stay at Caesars because I'm treated like royalty, whereas I like the Wynn better. Yeah.
17:25
But the Wynn, I'm just, like, another peon waiting in line, nothing special. Just another guy. Yes. Uh, Bill was on, Bill Krackenberger was on yesterday.
17:32
And by the way, thanks to both of you for being on the Vegas Lifestyle Megapod- So fun... a couple of weeks ago. So great. Um, check it out, Beating The Book feed.
17:39
He said he's been profitable 20 of the last 22 Super Bowls. Do you have such a, a, a gaudy record? No. I actually have a poor record on Super Bowl. Let me tell you why. Um,
17:50
my actual record on plays I give out to my clients has been quite good. Mm-hmm. But I've been playing advantage parlay cards for years and years.
17:57
By the way, I have found no parlay cards in town This, this week They do exist, yeah But I've run so bad on these, these correlations and like, and having an advantage, and just getting train wrecked at the very end of games, um, which I won't even go into all of the details.
18:13
I just haven't... And, and there's a lot of variance. You're playing six, seven, eight-team parlays. If all your ducks don't line up, it's like playing same-game parlays. Right You know, then you're not going to win.
18:21
Do you remember your best and your worst? Does that, is that how your brain works? Maybe your brain doesn't work that way. Um, I remember what would've been my worst. What was that?
18:28
Is I used to bet so much on no overtime, and when Vinatieri kicked the field goal, you know, New England- Yes... ah, to win, if, if that had gone overtime, ooh. That would've been brutal.
18:38
Because I was like laying minus... It, I mean, it was a 14-point spread. I was like laying minus 700 on no overtime. [laughs] Yes, you were.
18:44
And I, I remember just going to the window, and I had like, this is what I had allocated to bet, and I was like, "I'll just throw it all on no overtime." Yeah, Ram- Rams were two touchdown favorites in that Super Bowl.
18:53
Uh, all right, how about another bet for Super Bowl 59, sir, that you're willing to share? Let's go... You know what? I'm known as the great aggregator. Yes. So, and I'm proud of it. Yes, you are.
19:01
[laughs] I like, I, I, I listen to people smarter than I, and if they come up with a good handicap that I agree with, I'm a, I'm aboard. So I wanna, I'm gonna aggregate Warren Sharp's play right now. Oh.
19:11
I like his analysis about the Chiefs to kick threes. Butker has been a little banged up, but he's, hasn't been the disaster, you know, that the Eagles kicker has been, and you're kicking indoors, sure.
19:22
Kansas City over one and a half field goals minus the 150, how is that going to lose? They're gonna get a couple field goals. You like the over one and a half? I do. Yeah.
19:31
This is, by the way, I don't know if you remember this, but you and I met, the first time we ever met, you, do you remember what the first words out of your mouth were to me? Also, it was the aggregation stuff.
19:40
Um- Which I, which I didn't use the word aggregation at the time I think I told you Dr. Bob only hit 52% in the two years- No, you walked-... they won the Westgate Super Contest.
19:48
You, no, you walked up to me at the Westgate when there was those panels, and you're like, "The reason that I use your baseball picks is 'cause I aggregate them with other people's baseball picks."
19:56
[laughs] Do you remember that? I was, yeah, fa- famously, so Gilly, Gilly was a great MLB handicapper, and so I would get his plays and other people's plays.
20:04
And like when Gilly was on Texas, and it's a couple other people are on Texas, well, boom. Aggregation central. Aggregation play. Name a Texas Ranger. I, I'm not sure.
20:12
I don't know what state- I was like, "Who is this guy taking my picks and- I don't know what state Texas plays in. I'm aggregating." [laughs] You don't know what state Texas plays in?
20:18
[laughs] Geography's really not his thing.
20:20
Um, by the way, do you bet, this is, we'll get, and by the way, Stevie, we'll have another pick coming up in Super Bowl 59, another bet here in the next segment, um, as he, as he dispenses one per segment.
20:31
I thought that worked with Crack yesterday, by the way.
20:33
He doesn't usually give picks, but if I like, if I took him off the scent and we talked about other things, and then like a Sugar Ray Leonard late round flurry with like 90 seconds left, I'm like, "You got a pick, Crack?"
20:42
He's like, "Oh, sure, I got one." Right? And, and then he would give them out. It was different with him. Yes. Um,
20:47
after football season, 'cause people know you from this show as a football guy, but you bet all kinds of sports. Are you a big baseball guy? I don't know this about you.
20:56
Are you more of a college basketball, pro basketball, baseball? What are you? I, during the summer, you know, I can't name a player, but somehow I've won 100 units like the last three years in baseball. Baseball.
21:06
So what am, what am I doing? You know, I, I gotta be honest. So, um, I'm a big believer, don't be the peanut butter approach. Recognize like certain pitchers that are almost like I'm gonna bet them every single time out.
21:18
Yeah. You know? And bet them first five. So I don't take the...
21:21
There's nothing better than an, a dominant pitcher on a lousy team, you know, to go ahead, and, um, I gotta, I gotta give you credit, so you put me in touch with Mark Borchoin, the base winner. Borchard, yeah.
21:31
Borchard, thank you. Mm-hmm. [laughs] And I, I, I, and I get his stuff. I love his stuff. So I aggregate his stuff. He's great, man. I, like he will, he, he, he, he plays his parlays. It's great. He wins.
21:42
You know, but I, I, I love the information.
21:44
But we, uh, I so appreciate someone who still has the time to sit there in a lab basically and crunch baseball numbers all day long and do that kind of stuff, and we, we love him for that.
21:53
And I love that he has everything centered to, to like 100 is average, so if a pitcher is 50, his run suppression- Yeah... is 50%. If a offense is 120, they're gonna score 20% more.
22:05
It, it, it, I can understand his stuff, and it's all very obvious. Okay, so you have no side or total bet on the Super Bowl. You're just all props.
22:13
I'm going to play the Eagles, but not for the game, but that's gonna be in the third segment. Oh. I'm gonna give a, I'm gonna give a, a, a bet on the Eagles, but, uh, stay tuned.
22:21
That's what's, uh, known in the business as a tease is what that is. Look at you. Look at you. Man.
22:25
Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports, but, uh, tread lightly when you follow him on Twitter 'cause he might call you a dumbo if you say something wrong. Different kind of guy. Nicer in real life.
22:35
Uh, we'll have more on Super Bowl 59 with Fezz on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:41
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. In sports betting and trading, probability is the key to success.
22:59
Discover the power of high probability trading with Todd Bubba Horwitz, former floor trader and sports bettor with over 45 years of experience. Visit bubbatrading.com/vsin.
23:08
Get a free e-book on options trading, and use code VSiN500 to save $500 on any purchase. Uh, we are one set apiece now in our Bencic-Rybakina bet, so, uh, it's one set for all the marbles again.
23:23
Uh, we got R- we had, uh, Bencic. For subscribers, vsin.com/picks.
23:29
Uh, for subscribers, every host's picks in every sport, every guest's picks, uh, in every sport throughout the, uh, the breadth of the network at vsin.com/picks for VSiN subscribers, uh, as Bencic and Rybakina go to a third and deciding set there in Abu Dhabi.
23:45
Uh, okay, Steve, for those who are, who are listening for the first time, whether, whether it's SiriusXM Channel 158 or otherwise, and are like, "Oh, this Steve Fezzik guy seems pretty interesting to me," Steve is an actuary by trade, um, how do you take in the Super Bowl then?
24:01
Do you wa- first of all, do you watch the game? Are you interested in watching the game? And how, and do you go home to watch it? Where do you watch it?
24:06
So every single year I've been betting it from home, and this is the right way to do it, and to, uh, uh, I'll be firing away On props at post, basically I'm looking at the public's gonna bet stuff the wrong way.
24:20
So I'm gonna go look at the square ball books and take a look. Everyone's betting Goddard.
24:25
I like Goddard, so I'm gonna get, like, an under 58 and a half on Goddard, whatever, you know, a rogue number so I'll be firing away right at post.
24:32
Okay, then they- the game starts and I live wager throughout the whole process. So I'm gonna deviate this year.
24:38
My buddy's in town, my best friend, so I'm actually going to a Super Bowl party, and I tell him- Oh, you are?...
24:43
"I can't make the party until four minutes into the game because I gotta bet at post and make all these bets."
24:48
But as soon as the game kicks off and I pass post the, uh, the coin toss and I know who gets the ball and I bet them in the first quarter and to- hopefully to punt first and to get the first first down, which I might or might not get- Yeah...
24:58
in a select book, boom, I'm gonna rocket ship down and watch it on the strip because I got invited to a Super Bowl party with him, so we're gonna go to a party. Look at you.
25:06
Are you, are you keenly aware of what your bets are while you're watching the game? Like, are you fam- you're aware of all of it? 'Cause Crack will famously say, "I have no idea what I bet." I'm a hybrid.
25:16
I'm- I, I know what my big positions are, but I'm not anal about it. Like, I don't know if, uh, do I have 3,000 on this or 2,500? It's- Right... you know. Let's go back to what you said before, though.
25:28
So you're at home and you're betting this. I think what we lost in that, maybe we didn't, but I just wanna make sure we didn't, is the fact that the Super Bowl betting behavior is different than any other game. Yes.
25:41
I will make the case that right now, freeze it, go to Circa, get a screenshot, get every single prop on every player. I will make the case that the numbers right now are actually sharper than the closing numbers.
25:53
Now, how can that possibly be? All right? Mm. This is interesting.
25:56
Because this is the one game a year that the betting public takes over from the pros, and if they wanna go ahead and bet Mahomes over, if they wanna bet Goddard over, and if they wanna bet A.J.
26:10
Brown over, they're gonna do it and not even look at what the number is. So because of that, you're always gonna get bargains
26:18
on the, on the high side, and you're gonna be a bit like Rufus famously was w- w- you know, saying- Yes, this was the Rufus bet... like, "Hey, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go in.
26:25
I'm playing Saquon Barkley unders," you know- Yeah... because th- I'm gonna be forced to because if I don't like Barkley [laughs] over 114, that means I like him under 120. I mean- Mm-hmm... you know, you do the math.
26:35
Yes. But now Rufus' point also, though, was, you know, what he used to do was he would get the opening prop numbers and he would exploit those.
26:44
He, he might, you know, there's probably op- what his point was now is that there's probably still opportunities available.
26:49
He just doesn't have the, the, the get up and go that he used to, and he's just gonna wait for with the behavior that you're just talking about and make 95% of his v- of his bets towards game time.
27:00
I talked to, uh, Frank B, professional bettor about this, and he was saying, "You know, it's like a scavenger hunt," where really it's whoever gets to the book first.
27:07
If you can tell me, "Hey, Boyd is putting out their props in two minutes," okay?
27:12
I can tell you me, Frank B, um, uh, the Hitman, any, any guys like this, we are gonna go and look at that sheet, and eight of our 10 bets are gonna be identical. You know why?
27:24
Because our bets aren't gonna be based on any ki- any kind of handicap. We're gonna say, "No, that number's wrong, that number's wrong, that number's wrong."
27:29
We c- we'll be able to spot that, uh, mispricing immediately and just fire in the bets.
27:36
For some reason the, the, you know, the sports book's directors, and this really goes back to in the book The Odds, um, they're talking, um, uh, Joe Lupo's in charge of the Stardust, and he's like, "I hate these prop bets."
27:46
You know, these, these, these bookmakers, it's like w- in Vegas, lots of Hall of Fame bookmakers, but, uh, this is not their area of expertise. They're like, "I don't want any part of this."
27:55
And, and what happened is, is really DraftKings and FanDuel, k- kudos to them, they went over and they took over this o- Mm-hmm... you know, this whole niche.
28:02
Think about how much money they've made for their companies with these same-game parlays and these offerings. Oh, for sure. Uh, does, did this behavior, uh, always exist as far back as you can remember with Super Bowls?
28:13
So in other words, this is not a new thing that it, that the public takes over a certain way.
28:17
We, we have famously on this show said that, uh, you know, not, not with a line, not with a game tightly lined like this one, but generally speaking, when, when lines are bigger in Super Bowls, Super Bowl behavior, betting behavior is such that the public would often take the dog on the money line in a way that they wouldn't during the regular season, and so the money line price on the favorite would get muted, and you would have these opportunities that exist in the Super Bowl.
28:40
So this kind of behavior that we're, that we're discussing here, since the dawn of time pr- pretty much.
28:44
Y- yeah, and, and the last Super Bowl that Vegas lost was the Super Bowl where the Patriots lost to the Giants, and the reason being is that the word just got...
28:54
The public wanted to bet the Giants, and, and they weren't savvy, so they're like, "I want the Giants to win the game."
28:59
So they just bet it down to a re- I forgot what the spread was on the game, but to a ridiculous number.
29:04
This happened on the Rams Super Bowl when they lost to the Patriots, that the books got killed on those, um, on those Super Bowls because there was so much public money on the dog on the money line.
29:13
Obviously, if you're betting plus 400- Yeah... you know, that's gonna add up to a lot of liability. Uh, okay, another pick for Super Bowl 59 then, sir. All right. So I talked about, hey, the Eagles are the better team.
29:24
All the stat guys are gonna tell you that, and in the back of my mind I'm thinking, "Stevie, don't bet against God- [laughs]... at quarterback."
29:33
And how many times the hot stove, how many times do you have to take the hand and put it on the hot stove and get burned at the end of the game when for- Yes... whatever reason, you know what?
29:42
Uh, like, all Denver has to do is kick a field goal and they're gonna win. All the Raiders have to do is kick a field goal and win. No. [laughs] It, it, it's almost like the Chiefs have great, like, free throw defense.
29:50
Like, their, [laughs] their, their opponent will miss all the- That's right... key free throws. But the bottom line is if it's a really close game and the game's tied, do you really wanna have the Eagles?
29:59
So let's, let's eliminate that. Let's play the Eagles in the first half, and I don't wanna just give out minuses, so we're gonna play first half Eagles. Should be able to get them at plus 100.
30:08
Probably can do better than that, but great to be at plus 100. Um, I'd personally bet a plus a half, lay $1.20, but it's fine. Play Eagles first half plus 100.
30:17
And by the way, I'd have no problem also if you wanted to diversify- Play the Eagles plus a half in each quarter, minus anywhere from minus 35 to minus 60 in the four quarters.
30:28
I think you'll go three and one if you play it that way also. Eagles plus a half in all four quarters? Yes. You think they'll go, you'll go three and one? I do. Aha, interesting.
30:38
But- I, I think what you said re- uh, will resonate with a lot of people though, because what you've done by, by making that Eagles first half bet is basically take a, we just had a tweet about this, the two most common themes of these two weeks, and Lord knows we've had 12 days to talk about this now, right?
30:52
Mm-hmm. Which is exactly what, what he wrote, which is ev- you know, the main themes are the Philly's a better team, right? People taking Philly say Philly's a better team.
31:00
People who are taking Kansas City are like, "Yeah, but you're an idiot if you lose, uh, you know, going against Patrick Mahomes."
31:04
It was the first thing I said the first Monday after the championship games was, "If you're betting the Eagles and you lose, you only have yourself to blame at this point," right?
31:11
But what you've done there is sort of split the difference. You, you're like- Mm-hmm... "Oh, I, I'm not gonna deal with any of that. Philly is the better team.
31:16
I'll take them in the first half, and then Mahomes can do what Mahomes does in the...
31:19
" Exactly right, and you know, this, this Eagle team, and, and I, I do my power ratings each and every week, and I got, I've been, I, I didn't get every team right obviously, but I was really criticized.
31:27
I had the, I've been high on the Eagles and the Ravens all year long in my power ratings, and they were two and two in September. Their wide receivers were injured. Well, guess what?
31:36
If you take a look, they only throw the ball to three dudes. They throw to Goddard and their two wide receivers. So if you take away their wide receivers, they got nobody left to throw to. All right?
31:45
They're only supposed to complete passes, only, like, three guys are supposed to catch more than one and a half passes.
31:50
So, um, because of that, when AJ Brown and Smith are back, and AJ Brown looks 100% now, they're a much better team. But since October, like, 10th, they've been the best team in the NFL.
32:00
I mean, they haven't played a bad game. The only, the only loss they had was against, you know, Washington- Yep... in, in, in a coin flip game when they're playing without their quarterback, you know, Philly.
32:09
Um, also, uh, you know, Washington had five turnovers, but that's another story. Uh, let me just, uh, ask you this then. So when it comes to next year, when do you start to look at futures plays of any kind?
32:22
I, I, right after the Super Bowl, like- Right after... like, I know, like, the New York Giants, Giant fans, you know what? Eli didn't get into the Hall of Fame.
32:30
[laughs] And it's not g- the news isn't gonna get any better, because- [laughs]... every single math geek, you know, Warren Sharp will be coming on two weeks from now talking about how, "Oh, the poor Giants.
32:41
[laughs] Have you seen that schedule?" I, you know what, I don't care if they have rest advantage, disadvantage, they're gonna get destroyed next year, like, if you look at how difficult that schedule is. Yeah.
32:50
It's gonna be a long year regardless of what the NFL does, you know, in terms of the timing of their match-ups.
32:56
Were we still on the right side of the, even though we lost the Steelers under bet, were we still on the right side of that? Oh, ab- Tom, Tomlin just luck boxed his way into it? Absolutely, yeah.
33:04
So, so I, I, I played, yeah, Pittsburgh under eight and a half wins, and once again, I don't know, I don't think anyone noticed this, but Tomlin- [laughs] No one noticed... now, now- Yes... shh, never had a losing year.
33:15
[laughs] Steve Fezzik, everybody, uh, on the, uh, doorstep of Super Bowl 59. Thank you, uh, not only for today, but thank you for the entire season. Thank you always for coming on in, man. I appreciate it.
33:26
Thank you for having me, and, uh, keep up the great work with all of your segments. Of co- I love the crack, man. Great. I love that so much. Fantastic.
33:34
Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. Chris Felica, The Bear, he's got things to say on the other side.
33:42
It's The Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada.
34:00
It's Gil Alexander. Uh, Super Bowl, 48 hours away, 48 hours plus here.
34:06
Uh, as we approach the big game, let us recap all of our bets from today's show, uh, both from hosts and guests, courtesy of GBank, the official bank of VSIN. Once again, mine are as such.
34:19
This is, uh, now, uh, some from the past two weeks, of course. Chiefs are the play for me. Again, I laid one and a half. It remains to be seen who will be the favorite come kickoff on Sunday.
34:29
Uh, two Kendrick Lamar choices, four first song at halftime, but again, I'm already thinking that, uh, if, if the setlist that I saw is correct, ain't nobody winning.
34:38
His song is not even listed, the one that it looks like he might play, and, uh, shame on those books for keeping up these props knowing that that could be the case.
34:45
But I've got Not Like Us, his, uh, his banger, two to one, Swimming Pools, drank, seven to one is my choices. National anthem, under 125 seconds.
34:53
This went all the way down to 120 and a half last I saw it before they pulled it, so we're well ahead of that one from John Bat- John Batiste.
35:01
Kareem Hunt, Chiefs first touchdown score, plus 425, and Kareem Hunt first overall touchdown score at nine to one.
35:09
Again, I know that the Chiefs have multiple weapons here, but Hunt at those prices, and he's the guy that has scored the most first touchdowns for the Chiefs this year.
35:18
Not that that was the overriding thing, but I think of all the Chiefs choices, he's still the most likely for me, and I love those prices, so I'm all over, uh, Kareem Hunt.
35:26
Kelly, Kelly Bidlin, everybody, AFC to win the Super Bowl. He made this before the playoffs as he, uh, walks around town with his AFC baseball cap. Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP.
35:37
I might add that between now and game time. He's got it at a great price, plus 125. Xavier Worthy over five and a half rushing yards from Kelly.
35:44
He also was on Kareem Hunt, but he bet it slightly differently, over 42 and a half rushing yards. Isaiah Pacheco, longest rush under eight and a half yards. Both teams to score one-plus touchdown in each half.
35:57
He has a yes on that at minus 115, and then the one that he, uh, says he might add more to, will there be a two-point conversion attempt? He got that at plus 110, and Kelly is ready to, uh, bet some more on that one.
36:08
Warren Sharp, long-awaited return to the program today. Uh, thrilled to have Warren back. He is all over Harrison Butker, so much, uh, adored by Stevie Fezzik that Stevie, uh, aggregated this later.
36:19
Harrison Butker over one and a half field goals. He got it at minus 120. It's minus 150 now. He'd still bet it, he said. And then he went all alt lines with it. Butker three-plus field goals at plus 172.
36:31
Butker four-plus field goals at plus 553, so he's all over the Harrison Butker train. Eagles over one and a half fourth down conversions at even money.
36:41
Eagles over five and a half third down conversions at minus 130, and then Juju Smith-Schuster over 16 and a half receiving yards. That is kind of simpatico with what Mike Pritchard gave us yesterday on, uh, Juju overs.
36:55
Uh, Steve Fezzik, who was just here, he's on the Eagles. You just heard it, Eagles first half money line. Uh, he decided to go Eagles first half, not full game. Then will both teams, uh, score in the first quarter?
37:08
No from Fezz at minus 140, and he liked the Warren Sharp bet so much that he heard here on The Numbers Game that he stole it, too. Or he would say aggregate, not stole, sorry. Poor, poor diction on my part.
37:19
Harrison Butker over one and a half field goals at minus 150. GBank, the official bank of VSiN, of course. Uh, best bets brought you b- b- uh, brought to you rather by GBank, the official bank of VSiN every day.
37:31
VSiN recommends every bettor make the GBank Visa signature card part of their betting toolbox. Save up to three to 5% on cash advance fees.
37:37
Earn cashback rewards on eligible betting transactions, and now, for a limited time, you'll get a $250 bonus when you open your account and spend $1,000 in the first 90 days. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank.
37:48
That's vsin.com/gbank. Take advantage of the $250 bonus for a limited time from our friends at GBank, the official bank of VSiN, subject to credit approval, terms and conditions apply.
38:00
Belinda Bencic, for those who rode, up a break s- third and deciding set in Abu Dhabi against Elena Rybakina. Uh, world number three, Rybakina. Let's go, Belinda. Let's get it done. Chris Fallica joins us.
38:15
I think he has, I think he rode the, uh, Bencic train on this one, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He is the Bear from Fox Sports.
38:21
You can follow him at Chris Fallica, and of course, the Bear Bets Podcast Empire over there at Bear Bets Pod at Fox Sports. How you doing, Chris? Where are you? Uh, I, I'm, I'm in my hotel room in New Orleans.
38:32
We, we just got, we got the blinds closed nice and dark to, to give a good backdrop. Yeah, I thought that Bencic bet was just giving away money. Why would anybody wanna, wanna bet that, right? [laughs] It's amazing.
38:43
It's amazing. There's one, there's always one or two guys, like as soon as the data break, like, "This is like donating money." It's like, okay, relax. Reset. It's, it's a long match.
38:50
And we could still lose, but n- not at that point we could lose. Exactly. Um- That was like, that was like last night.
38:54
Ta- Tay- Taylor Fritz, easy six-two first set over, uh, over Shapovalov, and then Shapovalov beats Taylor Fritz. There's a- Yeah... massive underdog. It's called tennis, boys and girls. That's- But- Tennis happens.
39:06
All right, Chris- But- You, you're the, you're the man in the, in the anchor chair. You're, you got the last word on this. Super Bowl- Oh, great... 59. [laughs] That's right. Whatever you say is what matters in the end.
39:15
Super Bowl 59, how do you see this going? I, I don't, I'm in a position here where I'm not really playing the side, 'cause I've got futures to both teams, and I'm gonna, gonna be okay either way. I, I did play under 49.
39:32
I'm not sure if 49's still out there. If it's, uh, 48 and a half, I think we're gonna get a few more stops than usual, but, uh, a long- Can I just interrupt you? Can I just interrupt you right there? Yeah.
39:41
You're the first person in two weeks I think that made a play on the total on this show. I really do think that. Well, good. Yeah. Yeah, I, I, I like that then.
39:48
Yeah, I think we're gonna get more sustained drives and clock run, and, uh, maybe some fourth down variance there, where maybe we get a couple of stops, and we don't get a higher scoring game like we did, uh, Washington-Philly or Washington-Detroit.
40:03
So yeah, under, under 49, if you can get 49, 40 and a half obviously, uh, a, a little, a little riskier, but, uh, to kinda, uh, cr- uh, ride the coattails of what Warren said, and, uh, and Rich said, if you look at the list of like touchdown scorers from the Chiefs in all these Super Bowls, uh,
40:21
MVS, Nicole Hardman, Kadarius Toney, Damien Williams- [laughs] Like all these completely randos. So true.
40:29
And Juju Smith-Schuster kind of fits the mold of, and even DeAndre Hopkins, who I think Jason had mentioned earlier in the week.
40:36
Like, it's gonna be someone completely off the grid that winds up scoring, and Juju was five and a half to one.
40:42
Remember, this is a guy that had over 100 targets a, a couple of years ago with Kansas City, and, uh, Patrick Mahomes is familiar with him, so maybe he's a, uh, a, a good anytime touchdown score, um, at, at, at a good number.
40:57
Uh, the Barkley prop, uh, 25 and a half I saw was still out there for Barkley's longest carry of the game. That was minus 130 at DraftKings, and, um, I know I played that last night. Uh, I'm not sure if that has changed.
41:11
But, uh, check that. I believe they still had 25 and a half up. I was willing to go under.
41:16
That didn't get the best of the number like Crack and all those guys o- on, on the open, but so many places have 23 and a half and 24 and a half right now that, uh, I just found the 25 and a half and, and went under.
41:27
Uh, interesting one here that I found in faraway places, and I'm sure a lot of our listeners have access to, first holding penalty of the game. Ooh. Uh, I bet it to be called on the Chiefs.
41:37
It was minus 115, and I think just if you, if you look at the game flow, the game theory, the strategy, like you would assume Kansas City is going to be throwing the ball more.
41:47
Uh, they've had trouble even since moving, uh, Thuney out to, to tackle and Caliendo at guard.
41:52
Uh, maybe there's a holding penalty more likely on a passing play from Kansas City more than there is a running play for Philadelphia. So K- the Chiefs to have the first holding penalty, uh, at minus 115.
42:05
Here, here are a couple, here, here's one that I know, uh, you're gonna love, and again, this is at a faraway place, and, uh, hopefully you can have access to it.
42:13
A little cross sport, uh, deal with, uh, the number of touchdown passes in the Super Bowl to be greater than the number of goals in Saturday's, Saturday's game between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid If you go back in the la- go back in the last 11 La Liga matches between, uh, Atleti and Real Madrid, nine of them have seen two goals or fewer.
42:36
One saw three goals, one saw four goals. And I think we all kinda think that Chiefs will have to throw the ball to get into the end zone.
42:45
So I'm operating on a baseline that we're gonna get three combined touchdowns through the air at minimum. I'm banking on three goals max, uh, in that game. So I think this is a worst-case push scenario.
42:59
Uh, and, and you look at the, the, the way the, the game is gonna be played over in Madrid tomorrow, uh, it's a game between the top two teams in the table.
43:06
Uh, Diego Simeone and Atletico Madrid do not allow goals typically in big matches. But I think they're happy to get a point. If they can get out of there nil-nil or, or one-one, they're quite happy with that.
43:17
So I think not only the, the game flow of Super Bowl, but the game flow how I see the soccer match going, uh, a- also plays into that. So, uh, that was, uh, another one that I, uh, that I, that I fired on.
43:29
You lo- you love the cross-sport stuff. I, I dig it. Uh, last- I do. La- last thing here, um, and it's a sports talk question and I've asked it before this week. Mm-hmm.
43:37
But I'll ask it of you because you, you have a sense of history as well.
43:41
With all the great things the Patriots did, obviously Tom Brady individually, but the Patriots as a team, if the Chiefs pull off the three-peat, is it the greatest feat that we have seen in our lifetime NFL-wise?
43:54
I think it has to be.
43:55
To, to, to win three straight with the roster turnover that they've had at the skill positions, uh, to be, what, seven straight years in the AFC championship game, to, to win th- I, uh, it, it's amazing- Yeah...
44:07
just to see what they have done. And if they wi- if they do one on Sunday, uh, I think it certainly is the greatest run, uh, of any team in NFL history. Chris, enjoy New Orleans, man. Thank you for making the time.
44:17
I will, of course. Have a great weekend, everybody. You too. Chris Fallica, The Bear.
44:21
Uh, Kelly and I will be back on Sunday as part of the big VSiN shebang all day long, which begins, uh, at 8:00 AM Eastern with Dave Ross, By The Books. We'll be here at 1:00 PM Eastern. Stormy is next.
44:32
Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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