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Feb 8, 2026
A Numbers Game | February 8, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | February 8, 2026 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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0:56
the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:10
Not just any numbers game, the Numbers Game Big Game Edition. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, a tradition unlike any other. Kelly, good morning to you. Good morning. On a- Happy Super Bowl Sunday... Super Bowl 60.
1:22
A, uh, by the way, a jacket today for me, a tradition unlike any other. Our 10th, our 10th Super Bowl here at VSiN. That's incredible. 10 of the 60- That is incredible... we have been on air now.
1:32
It's pretty am- that's pretty amazing, actually. And you have been here for every single one. Yes.
1:36
Uh, we started, I was the famous one, uh, me and Youman, [laughs] Oh, God, I've been here for eight, I just- Me and Y- me and Youmans were on set with Brent in the halftime of that 28 to three Falcons,
1:45
uh, lead- Oh, man... over the Patriots so many years ago, and then, uh, well- I lost so much money on that game... we all know what happened. Oh, we, Matt and I had the Patriots. It was a glorious- Well...
1:53
it was a glorious thing. Here's the deal. Uh, for the next two hours, a who's who of Numbers Game guests, uh, will join us. Bill Krackomberger, Steve Fezzik, Will Hill, Chris Felica. Um, who did I forget?
2:05
Oh, Chris Bennett- Yes... will actually join us as well. Not a regular, uh, on a Numbers Game, but Chris Bennett, who's gonna be in the, uh, the risk room here at Circa.
2:15
And we're just gonna ask him just basic questions about, you know, what, what the job entails, how it's different on a day like this. What is he looking for?
2:22
What are the markers that make him, well, really move his needle, that make him have to adjust things?
2:28
The two s- the two weeks in sort of summation, if you're just landing right now, which I'm sure you're not, but if you are, uh, we got in here the Monday morning after the, uh, NFC and AFC championship games, Kelly.
2:40
And the line was four and a half, and the previous night, the night of the championship games, I bought it down to four with extra juice, thinking that this line was gonna soar.
2:49
Yeah, it was- Meaning, it's gonna go the Seattle way. We saw some places on Sunday open three and a half, right? So it went- We did... jumped to four and a half, and it was easily four and a half, five quick.
2:58
So- So I get it... so I was surprised that it didn't soar, and then I was even more surprised that for the next two weeks up till this morning, nothing really changed.
3:05
By the way, total 45, but the spread remains four and a half in most places. Here at Circa, it's at four and a half. Mm-hmm. I have seen, Kelly, a little bit of movement offshore this morning.
3:16
Uh, there's some fives, there's even a five and a half at one of the offshore, uh, pillars, if you will. So there's a little movement on this, but generally speaking,
3:25
and, and we still have six and a half hours before kickoff, so there's still much time. The, the night is young, as they say.
3:31
Yeah, there's, uh, just looking at the board right now, f- like you said, few fives out there, still mainly four and a halves.
3:37
I think that's what's kinda interesting, Gil, is how many four and a halves with a little extra juice I'm seeing. Little juice.
3:42
Which, you know, that with these dead numbers, we're usually pretty quick to move to four and a half to five. That's right. But it is the Super Bowl, and these numbers become, uh, a little bit more sharpened.
3:51
Uh, 45, 45 and a half. I'll tell you, more 45 and a halves on the board right now than when we were here on Friday. A lot more 45s then, so it looks like a little over money coming in.
4:01
And then, you know, we've been talking about were we gonna see a muted money line, uh, all we- you know, past two weeks. Not yet. Really, Circa's the only one that even...
4:10
I'm looking at, it is mainly 240 to 250 out there, Circa with a minus 225 on the Seahawks.
4:15
Yeah, what Kelly is referring to, again, is the tried and true Super Bowl adage of, for whatever reason, right, you be the judge, probably just because it's the last hurrah of the season, underdog bettors who usually take the underdog with the points during the regular season, when it comes to the Super Bowl, tried and true, we don't know why, it's the march of the penguins.
4:32
One penguin takes one step, we don't know why, and everybody follows.
4:35
But everybody takes the, uh, not everybody, but most people take the dog on the money line, and what it does is creates a, a muted money line price on the favorite, generally speaking, during Super Bowls.
4:47
Uh, so a lot of folks were hoping that this money line would get sub minus 200. That has not happened yet.
4:53
Uh, we don't know that it will between now and, again, kickoff at Santa Clara at Levi's Stadium, uh, at 6:30 PM Eastern, 3:30 Pacific this afternoon.
5:01
Now, we have a, uh, cavalcade of guests, so Kelly, uh, we should probably spit out everything- Yeah... that we have bet so far. I added a few. I added a few, as I teased on Friday. Oh, okay.
5:09
Well, so in addition to the minus four that I have extra juice on Seattle, as the week went on, uh, I decided to add some alt lines as well. I added Seattle minus seven and a half, uh, at plus 159.
5:23
I added Seattle minus 10 and a half at plus 208, because I do believe there is gonna be one-way traffic today.
5:29
I could be terribly wrong, but to me, this has '80s, early '90s vibes when teams like Washington, San Francisco, the Giants, the Bears, the Cowboys dominated teams like the Bills and Broncos.
5:40
That's what it feels like to me. I could be wrong, but I'm going directional. Yep. All of my bets are in this direction. Right there with you.
5:47
And a- and again, as a North Star, for those who missed it, Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, who ac- who works at FTN Sports, he has these Seahawks as the seventh-best team ever since 1978.
6:00
That's as far back as he's gone, and he has these Patriots as having played the third easiest schedule Since 1978, and has them as the 16th worst team to ever make a Super Bowl since 1978. That's out of 96 teams.
6:14
Now, you don't have to believe that sacredly. Plus, there's also been four worse teams that have made Super Bowls that actually won the Super Bowl. That doesn't mean s- the Patriots can't win the Super Bowl, right?
6:24
But it is a good sort of guideline for me, anyway, as I approach this game, whether I believe it sacredly or not.
6:30
So in addition to the -4, -128, the -7.5, +159, and the -10.5, +208, I also took Som- uh, Sam Darnold to win MVP Kelly at +125, thinking the path for a Seahawk to win this other than Darnold, if the Seahawks win, is very thin.
6:47
I think voters will bend over backwards to close the narrative on Sam Darnold's career, where they've crapped on him for his whole career- Mm...
6:54
really, including last year when he was good and had the two bad games at the end. I also threw in the Drew Dincic play, Seahawks win in a shutout, 50 to 1. Um, let me skip the anthem one for a second.
7:05
I did it, so those are the Seahawks-focused, directional bets. Right. Yep. Okay. The other bets I've made, well, actually, let's start with the national anthem.
7:12
So the, I think I'm gonna be O and 1 before the game even starts, based on reading the tea leaves offshore. Charlie Puth is doing the national anthem.
7:19
I went over 122 seconds based on him having a choir and him really taking this seriously. It reopened, it was taken off the board and reopened at 1:15 yesterday. Wow. Now it's 1:16.
7:32
And where did w- you, after you bet that, it jumped up to, like, 1:25? Yes. It went from 1:22 to 1:25, then 10 seconds less. Maybe somebody caught a rehearsal- Yeah... or somebody f- found out something. Who knows?
7:45
Maybe they didn't. Mm-hmm. Maybe it's just, it was just a hunch. I don't know. We'll find out.
7:49
Uh, and then two other bets I made that are, they're not directional, but jersey number of first touchdown score under 11 and a half at -140. What that gives me is
8:00
Kenneth Walker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, um, Cooper Kupp, Drake May, KeSean Booty, Stefon Diggs. Who'd I leave out? Somebody. Anyway, gives me- Yeah, most of them, though...
8:12
give me a, gives me a lot of options- I'm with that one with you, too. Yeah... under 11 and a half, -140. And then Kelly, the last one. We'll get, went to yours here. Three unanswered scores.
8:20
This also doubles as the, uh, the prop that flummoxes bettors the most year after year, newish bettors. Three unanswered scored, three unanswered scores. The yes is the one in minus money. It's -155.
8:33
Most new bettors say to themselves, "This is the AFC champion. This is the NFC champion. These are the two best teams in football, or at least two of the best f- teams in football.
8:41
Three unanswered score seems, scores seems highly unlikely." By the way, exception, uh, two point conversions and extra points. But in fact, it happens all the time.
8:49
So most people look at that prop and they think the minus money should be on the no, when in fact, it is correctly priced on the yes. Don't let this get higher than -170, though. I, uh, glad you said that.
8:59
I didn't bet it, but what I was doing yesterday was do- yeah, [laughs] as I made fun of on Friday, right?
9:04
Spent the multiple hours, Gil, to go through all the different wonderful apps we have out here [laughs] in Nevada to try to figure out, um- It's a, it is a full-time job It's incredible. The finalized bets for today.
9:14
I was surprised when I saw a -145 on that prop out there. The three unanswered score? Yeah. Oh, I didn't see that. Which felt real low to me. So- I saw -160 later in the week... yeah, just a heads up.
9:23
Shop around with- Yeah... with, like with everything, shop around, shop around. Li- like with everything. [laughs] It's very true.
9:29
I say it in that tone, though, 'cause it's so much harder for the Super Bowl, and I'm aware of that fact. Oh, wow. Look at you with the small print. I did, yeah, yeah.
9:35
W- a- added away here, where we'll start Seahawks bets. I am absolutely with you. You and I, Seahawks paid off well for NFC for me, six to one. Rolling over a lot of that to play on the Super Bowl with them.
9:47
Uh, I will start with one that's actually not listed. Uh, if you're into the NBA at all, Gil Alexander- Oh, man... the Miami Heat get started here in a couple hours.
9:56
I'm doing a Heat money line and s- with, uh, parlay with the Seahawks money line. So I am starting there. Miami Heat, uh, going up the, uh, against those Washington Wizards today.
10:04
They just have so much to play for, uh, as they try to, uh, improve their draft position. Side note, what an epic tank-a-thon we're gonna have in the NBA. You know it's gonna be great, man. Yes. It's gonna be awesome.
10:14
So many of these teams. Uh, okay, so it started with that, and then laid five and a half with Seahawks, sold that out to 102. Seahawks nine and a half at +190, so I'm joining you on the alts. That's the ul...
10:24
That's where I stopped at, though, nine and a half. Um, coulda gone higher. I'm gonna choose to stay there, though. Seahawks first quarter, laying a half point at +110.
10:33
Also, we talked about it for the past two weeks, Gil. Me and you waited probably a little too long. Super Bowl, uh, Super Bowl MVP, Sam Darnold, +125 right there.
10:41
And then, you know, what, we talked about this with Warren Sharp, uh, earlier in the week, of kinda these opening drives and Jaxon, Jaxon Smith-Njigba's involvement, and kinda lack thereof.
10:51
And it's kinda something that I had been noticing and tracking throughout the season as well. So I'm gonna take a stab on a couple, uh, couple fun ones here.
10:57
For the first Seahawks reception, Kenneth Walker III at +450, and A.J. Barber, uh, at five to one for the Seahawks' first reception.
11:06
Basically, as Warren detailed on the show, uh, on Wednesday, JSN really ends up getting more involved as the game goes on. Not as much, uh, often on that first drive, where he is targeted by the defense so often.
11:17
Steve Fezzik will have something to say about first anything- Okay, great... later in the show. Yeah. Looking forward to that. Uh, looking forward to everything Steve's got, uh, coming in.
11:24
Crack as well, uh, added bets I know. Drake May, over 33 and a half rushing yards, -120. Bet that pretty much right at open. I know it's gotten up to, like, 37 and a half right now.
11:34
Uh, Drake May, more pass attempts than Sam Darnold. Matt Brown brought this one up on Friday. Uh, been considering May pass attempts, right? This is same sorta thing.
11:43
If we think the Seahawks are up, it's gonna be playing catch-up for the Patriots. It means, it's gonna mean airing the ball out by Drake May.
11:51
Uh, another, another couple then that we had talked about earlier in the week with guests. Total sacks, over five and a half. Think it's been well-documented, I think Seattle's gonna be able to get after Drake May.
12:00
And look, uh, it's, Darnold and this pa- uh, pass protection has had issues as well hol- holding off sacks. So I took the over on the total sacks for the game at five and a half.
12:08
With you on the first touchdown jersey number, and then another Matt Brown one. He had brought up total players with a reception under 13 and a half.
12:16
I think very well documented through the year, the heavy concentration to, uh, a limited number of receivers that Seattle runs through. I don't think New England is far behind with that as well.
12:25
So 13 and a half going under on that. We didn't necessarily think we were gonna have a lot of bets, but this is what happens when you have two weeks- Yep... waiting for one ballgame. Can't wait.
12:35
And you talk to a lot of smart people, right? Yeah, you do. They're pushing you in the right heads. And, and other people give you, yeah, ideas, for sure.
12:41
Speaking to that, smart people, cavalcade begins on the other side.
12:44
Will Hill, the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, all of his Super Bowl bets next on a Numbers Game special edition right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge.
12:54
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13:16
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13:30
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13:36
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13:43
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13:50
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14:03
Uh, this is, uh, the portion of the show that, uh, we begin to just, uh, roll out all of our... I don't wanna say our favorites, right? 'Cause then we leave out somebody. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And somebody's gonna...
14:12
By the way, Jason Weingarten in the building at, at some point too. No, he's not. Is he? Yeah, he is. Again? He's, he's watching the, he's watching the game at Circa. All right. I was like, "When are you getting in?"
14:18
Well, actually, he's not in town yet. He flew in from LA, so I was trying to get him in, but he, he, uh, he won't get here in time.
14:24
But we, it begins, what I'm getting at is it begins, many of our favorites, with Will Hill, who joins us right now. You can follow him on Twitter at not the Will Hill. That's two Es on the the.
14:33
He is the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, also one of the stars, of course, of the Megapod, writes at foxsports.com. Will, happy Super Bowl Sunday, sir. Boys, what's going on? I've, uh...
14:46
Yeah, I saw Jason's tweet yesterday. He said he's going to have one, and he put in parentheses the number one beer, and he's gonna make two Super Bowl MVP bets. I, I think one beer is enough for Jason Weingarten.
14:55
I, I think any more than one- [laughs]... would be, uh, would be too much. I... Hopefully Jason can contain himself. Not to step on your time, can I, can I reveal one of Jason's Su- two Super Bowl bets?
15:03
'Cause I know- Oh, I ho- I hope it's the one I was gonna ask about. He has one. I know one of the two Super Bowl MVP bets. Do we have a flyover pick from him? Oh, he did give me flyover intel. There's some kind of snafu.
15:13
There's... He has no bet. There is no bet. Wow, okay. All right. Yeah, I'll give you the exact wording on that. But- Sure... uh, Cooper Kupp, 100 to 1, a typical ti- kind of Jason Weingarten bet. All right.
15:21
Cooper Kupp, 100 to 1. He's all in, baby. All right, which brings us to you, Will. Let's start with... And again, you've been on twice since the [laughs] championship game, so make it a third time.
15:31
Let's start with Sam Darnold MVP. I'll let you have the floor. What's your reasoning? Yeah, it's amazing. It feels like those title games were about a month ago.
15:39
It just feels like there's been so much time between these games. Uh, I like Darnold MVP. I think the narrative is there.
15:45
I think v- very rarely do you get a, a situation where the, the favorite is a minus 230 o- on the money line, and you have a quarterback where you can still get plus money.
15:53
I know it's come down a little bit, but in that plus 120-ish range, I still think he's good. He's on his feet team. Um, you know, he's a, a great story.
16:01
The media seems to like him, and you have a team that's favored by four and a half that I actually think he's gonna win the game here.
16:06
So to me, Darnold, I know, you know, people wanna go viral on the internet and give out the 75, 100 to 1, and pick a defensive player, or pick, you know, Rasheed Shaheed.
16:15
I get that, and people wanna bet a little to win a lot, and this is not that. This is not... You don't get the style points for that, but value is value, and I do think there's value here.
16:22
By the way, here is your, again, Will, sorry, this is terrible form, but since it's brought up, uh, no one has seen any flyover props.
16:29
If there are, F22, uh, F22 twos, I don't know why I can't say that, F22s have been pulled from the Super Bowl flyover, um, due to, quote, "operational assignments," according to, uh, the Military Times. Wow, okay.
16:43
There you go. There's your flyover update, Will. I'm sorry.
16:46
Okay, so- I, I, I was just gonna say, just quickly, and we, I talked about this I think the first time I was on Between Games here, information's just harder to come by.
16:54
We hear whispers about the Gatorade, maybe it's yellow. You hear whispers about the, the time of the anthem. I just think these books especially, you know, the skin, some of these offshores that book it, they know.
17:03
Like, information travels so fast now. They got burned with info last year when the, the setlist leaked. I just think these books, they're gonna take their ball and go home, which I understand.
17:11
It's information based, and the information gets out there, so they don't really wanna b- book it. I sense less of a menu, less of an appetite to, uh, to book all this stuff this year.
17:18
It had been a few days since I've checked in on Gatorade color. Will is right. We've got yellow, lime green, all the way down to plus 145. Yeah.
17:25
I mean, this is a bit of apples and oranges, but in a world where courtsiding is that much more difficult, right? When you're actually at a game- Right...
17:32
watching a play in front of you, and books are mo- are moving just as quick as you can almost see them, you can imagine how this is, this is sort of slower, uh, with setlists leaking and that kinda thing.
17:42
All right, let's get to a couple of your props. Um, so Sam Darnold MVP. How about, uh, what are you doing with Kenneth Walker? Under rushing yards.
17:51
I think you can poke holes here in this Patriots path to this game, to the Super Bowl, but you can't poke holes in their run defense. They held Vidal in the first wildcard game there, under three yards per carry.
18:02
Harvey under three yards per carry. Texans had 48 rushing yards as a team. They played really good run defense here, and you never know about running back usage. They could go to Halani.
18:11
Uh, the game scrape could get, game script could get away from you. The... It could be an injury situation there. There's a lot of ways to winning under.
18:17
I think Walker getting in the mid-70s against this elite Patriots run defense I think is unlikely. I think the Seahawks are gonna move the ball, which I, I think they will. It's gonna have to be through the air.
18:25
So Walker under rushing yards, I know that's been a pretty popular one. That is one, though, I, uh, I agree with. I endorse that one. All right, so you did not play the game total, but you did play a team total.
18:37
Yeah, and it's funny, I can't... Of all the shows I've listened to, read, everything in these two weeks, I don't think I've heard anybody make a case for the over. And I'm not gonna make a case for it either.
18:47
I still lean under. But I prefer the Patriots team total under, and to me this is the crux of the game, the crux of the handicap. I don't think the Patriots can block 'em up front. Mm-hmm.
18:55
I think the worst unit on the field is gonna be the Patriots' offensive line. Uh, you can pick your number, pick your juice with this. Under 19 and a half is even money at DraftKings.
19:03
20 and a half, you gotta lay a little juice. I think it's minus 125. If you, you have an appetite to, to get through a key number and lay a little more juice, I think under 21 and a half is minus 155.
19:13
But I think the Patriots offense is going to struggle. They've struggled all post-season. I know some of that, uh, good defense is weather, all of that stuff. Seattle's really good on defense.
19:20
I'm a little worried about Émanuel Moire. He, uh, he's obviously a very important player, and who knows with the ankle. But the Patriots essentially getting to three touchdowns here I think is unlikely.
19:29
They have not moved the ball well all post-season. So I will go Patriots team total under 20 and a half.
19:35
And I do lean towards under for the game, but it's just funny how nobody, and I think nobody seems to say, "You know what? I think this is gonna be over. I think we're gonna see some points." So- [laughs]...
19:42
you, you never, uh, you never wanna be on the same side as everybody else. But I- I'm curious if you guys agree with that. But it seems like it is all under pass from everyone I've listened to. It's so true. Yeah.
19:51
I don't, I don't think we've had one person say they were going over. No, I... Very true. I also, I'll, I'll even go the other side, though.
19:55
I don't know that I've heard that many people either say, "I'm heavy on the under." That's true.
19:59
I feel like it's been a lot of what, what Will just said, and I've said it for two weeks too, like, yeah, lean to the under. But I'm not, not playing that one either. Yeah.
20:06
Um, so there's a game script involved, I would imagine, in your head, though, if you're... So you're thinking a certain way about this game.
20:12
Uh, obviously your, uh, your Darnold MVP bet sort of tips us off on that to begin with. How are you playing Traavion then?
20:22
Over receiving yards, this one has been bumped up, but I, I talked about it I think a couple weeks ago when I was on with you guys. I still like it. Now, it, it moved from two and a half to six and a half.
20:29
That's a pretty big bump. That's, um... You, you don't wanna be, uh, you know, playing four yards the worst of a, especially a small number.
20:36
But there have been whispers that Patriots practice, they have had a heavy emphasis here on the screen game and that Henderson could be more involved than people might think. That's the reason this has been bumped up.
20:46
So, uh, again, six and a half is, uh, is, is different than two and a half. I understand that. But I still like over here. I think he could get a couple of catches. And you need those explosive plays.
20:55
I know he's been kinda in and out of the passing game, in and out of the lineup in general, but you need chunk plays against Seattle, and I think Henderson's the guy that, that can bust one for 40 or 50.
21:03
I am not gonna go as far as Steve Fezzik did the other day and call R- uh, Rhamondre Stevenson, I think it was a fat tub of goo. [laughs] That's correct. That's exactly. That's correct.
21:11
An un- an unfortunate term at very best. I, I thought it was aggressive. An unfortunate term. I'm not sure how accurate that is. [laughs] Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, it's a little aggressive.
21:17
Uh, Henderson over receiving yards. I, I didn't end up on any of those prop bets. I'm, I'm interested in that as well, though, Will. I, I think that there is...
21:25
Like, look, he's your, one of your most explosive players, right? Like, you're gonna need probably a home run hit at some point here.
21:32
So whether it's r- yeah, receiving yar- uh, rushing yardage, something, I think Henderson overs are probably a good look. Did you, Will, not then bet the side at all in this game?
21:43
I've got NFC from middle of the year a couple times. Oh, that's right. I bet. I kinda over-bet it. So, uh, I'm rooting for the NFC.
21:49
I did buy a little back on Patriots plus the points just because I, I don't wanna lose as much as I have on NFC, and I figured...
21:54
I made these bets with the plan, and I talked about it multiple times this year, with the plan that we're gonna get to the Super Bowl, and the NFC's just better than the AFC, and there's gonna be a hedge opportunity, an, an arb opportunity, and you can buy back.
22:05
So I was hoping for a little more than five w- with the way the NFC versus AFC was lining up, and Denver being in this game obviously would've helped.
22:11
But man, when you can lay minus 115, minus 120 on a money line in the middle of the year and then come back on plus five, even for part of it, that is a, a pretty profitable middle. That's right.
22:20
So while watching this game, do you hold true to that? Are you like, "Let's go NFC"? Do you do that kinda thing? Or while you're... No, nothing. Yeah, I got my, uh- No...
22:26
I got my, uh, NFC, uh, NFC hat that Kelly let me borrow. Yeah, look, it's- [laughs]... it is weird to watch a game when you have a middle where you, you want this team to do well, but not too well. Yeah.
22:34
And so you just kinda forget about it until the end and, and hope it stays close, and then hopes, hopefully Seattle can, you know, tie game with three minutes to go, Seattle can be in a position where they can milk the clock and kick a field goal as time expires, something like that.
22:46
That's the part we never talk about, right? We talk about all these things in theory during the week, but then we rarely talk about the, the conflict in your brain having to endure- Yes...
22:54
three hours of that is, is never a pleasant experience, until the end if it works out, obviously. All right, so then bottom line this for us.
23:01
What, uh, just in terms of, like, Will Hill's needs today betting-wise, do you have most on the Super Bowl, you know, games-related stuff itself?
23:11
Do you have more on, I guess it's a smaller college basketball slate, but I'll throw in, will you have more on college basketball, or will you have more on some random thing happening on a prediction market?
23:23
It's a slower day. I did bet the commercial. I, I... Man, I'm, I'm drawing a blank on the commercial. I think I tweeted about it or retweeted about it. We had Derbify, a former circle winner, on the other day.
23:32
He, he promoted a, a bet he likes in terms of a commercial, so I can retweet that. But it's not g- I didn't go crazy. I, I would say s- six to eight bets, something like that. I'll do some in-game college basketball.
23:43
Um, so I, I don't know if that answers your question- Yeah... but I, I'm not gonna go overboard here. It's just one football game. I'm gonna have some bets. There's gonna be enough to, to get a little sweat going.
23:52
But I'm not gonna be sweating every single play, which is important too. And there will be much food at the Hill residence today. That I would lay any amount of money on. Over. Bet the over. Over, yes. That's right.
24:01
Thank you, Will. Happy Super Bowl Sunday, man. S- Appreciate it. See you guys. Thanks. Will Hill, star of the Megapod, Shoulda Bet More podcast host, of course, and VSiN stalwart. Probably should've led with that one.
24:12
Steve Fezzik, all of his theories, all of his thoughts, all of his bets, including new ones, the prop of the year, he says. Next.
24:27
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24:36
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24:51
Download the free Upside app now and use promo code SUNDAY for a limited time 25 cent per gallon bonus. Offers vary by user and location. See upside.com for details. We get tweets.
25:04
I know it's a Sunday, but we still get tweets, Kelly, so we don't, we don't leave folks behind. Yeah, man.
25:07
Montreal Max, "Gil, how could we, how could we be talking about the Super Bowl when right now we have multiple courts of opening round action of the women's tennis, uh, tournament in Duba- in, uh, excuse me, in Doha, Qatar right now?"
25:19
I know. Believe me, I had two bets overnight. I'm with you, man. I will be, uh, running home after this to sweat out the end of golf. [laughs] Awesome. Trust me, I had two bets overnight in Doha.
25:29
Uh, split 'em, by the way, both dogs, so small, little profit. Spence, "Hey, guys.
25:33
I'm pulling back my prop bets this year, uh, just to defense special teams touchdown Seattle and Hunter Henry anytime touchdown, but went bigger on the side, Seattle minus four and a half, um, and under. Good luck.
25:45
Happy Super Bowl." You too, Spence. Yeah. And Scott C, "Did, uh, Jason put in a phone call to the Pentagon to get the flyover info?"
25:51
Well, once again, we, we have flyover info, and, uh, apparently there are no props anywhere. Does anybody even see a flyover prop? Oh, that's what I meant to ask. I'll check.
25:58
I'll check while we're- Yeah, I, I don't think we have any... talking to Steve. Yeah. Uh, but yes, Jason is on it, as always. But it's probably, it's probably related to what you t- to, to- Yeah...
26:05
what he kinda told you, right? No F-22s, he said. That's it. Ladies and gentlemen, uh, he is, uh, responsible for the Twitter feed Fezzik Sports. That is not what I would put forward as the headline.
26:16
I would say mainly he's the two-time winner of the Hilton Super Contest and winner of many s- uh, many other contests all around Vegas through the years.
26:23
Uh, the reason I say that about Twitter is 'cause he's not very nice on Twitter, but in real life, eh, probably a little better. Steve Fezzik, everybody, joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
26:31
How you doing, Steve? Happy Sunday. Happy Super Bowl Sunday. I'll, I'll take it, Gil.
26:35
Thank you so much for having me on, and what a great job you guys are doing here this Sunday morning, despite me being a little groggy from working 60 hours a week.
26:44
[laughs] Okay, we wanna do a, we wanna do a Steve Fezzik sort of greatest hits here, and we'll get to what you are calling the best prop bet of the day.
26:53
Um, we'll crescendo to that, but just ex- some things that we've talked about with you the last couple weeks, Steve, 'cause I think it's worth hearing for folks who are tuning in for the first time.
27:01
One, the distance or, or I should say the length of time between the coin toss and the kickoff, talk to us about that. All right. So you have a window of opportunity. They're going to have the coin toss.
27:13
Someone will win the coin toss. They will defer. The other guys will get the ball. Boom, go. At that point,
27:19
a lot of books will leave open their entire prop menu, so you can, whoever's getting the ball, bet them to score first, bet them to, in the first quarter. Bet the other guys in the third quarter.
27:30
If you can, bet them to punt first. Um, it's, one year I was able to bet, um, the team that won, that was receiving the ball to receive the ball, 100% prop bet, so it does happen.
27:43
Okay, and then, and that's, well, let's talk about the eight of clubs method. What did you mean by that earlier in the week? All right.
27:50
Eight of clubs method basically believes that whatever the numbers were last night, they've been bet into for, like, 10 days, and those are, like, the most solid, rock solid correct numbers you'll ever see.
28:02
And now the public is coming in, and they're ramming and jamming, and they're betting overs, and they're betting players to score touchdowns, things like that.
28:10
So any player that gets steamed today, especially a major player, a JSN, a Sam Darnold pass yard, any number that goes up for something like that that's a good story, Hunter Henry, everyone is betting Hunter Henry over, and you're hearing, "That's the sharp play.
28:27
That's what the pros are betting." No, all the pros would've bet that already, so you fade those line moves, and you bet the opposite. You go against the line move right before the game starts.
28:37
That's the eight of clubs method. And why do we call it the eight of clubs specifically, just out of curiosity? Because that's the card that the mentalist guessed. No, no.
28:46
[laughs] My friend Leon likes to be, the, the, the eight of clubs because it's, it's the most nondescript card in the deck, and he like- Leon is his name. He likes to remain anonymous. [laughs] Sorry, Leon. All right.
28:56
Remember, the eight of clubs was underneath my butt, Steve. Let's just clarify that. Let's make sure we get that correct. It was in the proximity of your butt- That's right... Gil.
29:04
Uh, last thing in terms of theory before we get to your bets here was your thoughts on needle in haystack bets. Hate 'em, and you know what? Everyone wants to be the, the, the, the, Valentine's Day is coming up.
29:18
Everyone wants to be romantic, and they wanna romanticize the big win, and so they wanna give out the 20 to 1, the 50 to 1, the needle in the haystack, the player to score first, the kicker to win the MVP.
29:30
You're not gonna win making bets like that. They're a lot of fun. Bet 'em for $5, but don't think you have an advantage. The house vig is just too high on those bets such as what will the exact final score be. All right.
29:43
Uh, coming up here, Steve's prop of the day, but let's start with two before we get to that.
29:48
One is, uh, one that you shared earlier in the week, New England second half points, you are going over nine and a half minus 125. Explain. Yeah, so I, lots to like about this.
30:02
I always like higher scoring second halves versus first halves.
30:07
I also like the favorite to be a little more likely to e- extend a lead in the first half versus just what the second half scoring is, and I think New England c- will, may well start slow.
30:19
But New England at nine and a half where you win with 10, that is solid value, so New England over nine and a half points second half. All right.
30:27
Here's one that you hadn't shared with us, but I guess you've added since your last appearance, longest field goal minus 150 versus total points scored. I like this. Yes, this is over at Station Casino.
30:39
I just confirmed that, so that's available. Um, excuse me, South Point, South Point Casino, and, and several other books as well. I gotta give a shout-out to Frank B alerted me to this, so I am slightly aggregating this.
30:51
I'm sorry. But I'm giving him, you know, credit. But I, I... This is an example, Gil. I like field goals, longest field goal over 49.
30:59
I leaned the game to go under 45 and a half, so why not pair those two bets that I like already, and now it's a pick 'em and I can go ahead and back longest field goal. I like it. Yeah.
31:11
By the way, aggregations are fine as long as you credit the person, Steven. Well done.
31:15
Uh, some other Stevie bets from, uh, earlier in the week by the way, longest touchdown, Seattle minus 140, New England total punts over three and a half minus 150, total rush yards in the game under 225, New England total points second half, we just talked about that one over nine and a half, so I don't wanna repeat myself there.
31:31
Um, but also, oh, uh, Drake May over six and a half rushes, and Drake May over 36 and a half rushing yards. What's your thinking on the Drake May ones? I really think that New England's not gonna be able...
31:42
They're gonna try to throw. I don't think they're gonna be effective throwing.
31:45
I know they're not gonna be able to run, so I just think he's gonna get several scrambles, and the Seattle defense has been prone to give up some long yardage.
31:54
However, I do think the over six and a half is better than the over 35 and a half. All right, Steve. Prop bet of the year. This is what we've been waiting for.
32:03
Um, I'm, I'm, first of all, I didn't know we were gonna get this this morning, but you really are excited about this. What is it? 100%.
32:10
And by the way, other than the field goal prop with Frank B, all right, uh, Kevin O'Neal did, helped me out with that rush prop under 225, I have originated all of my props, and I have 19 of them that I played, Gil.
32:22
But this is my favorite of them all. This is in DraftKings right now. Total kickoff returns set up over six and a half minus 125. Go. Go. [laughs] We are betting over six and a half minus 125.
32:38
Now, warning, there's a little math involved. We expect actually more than 10 kickoffs, like 10.25. The over-under on total kickoff is under 10 and a half, vig to the under. But let's call it 10.
32:50
If we get 10 kickoffs, we need seven kickoff returns to win, but what's this?
32:56
About 80% of kickoffs were returned this year with the kickoff rules change, and I checked both these teams, and they're both right around that 80% level. So I'd expect 10 kickoffs. Eight of them will be returned.
33:09
In fact, I am guaranteeing that there will be exactly 10 kickoffs and eight returns, and we will cash- [laughs]... over six and a half minus 125. You get that, Kelly? 80% of 10 is eight, and this is, this is- I got it.
33:19
Wait, hold on. It's a lot. Yeah. [clears throat] Yeah, that checks out. And it's lined at six and a half, so he's going over. Yeah, it, it checks out. Prop of the year from Steve Fezzik.
33:26
All right, Steve, we only have, we only have about a minute, you know, 90 seconds left. So your day is just getting started then based on some of your earlier comments?
33:35
Like, you make a ton of bets in that last, well, I don't, yeah, I don't wanna say the last hour, but maybe it is the last hour. How does this go for you from here?
33:43
So for the next two and a half hours I'll be copying, I mean, I'll be consulting with Todd Wisniew on what- [laughs]... his live bets are- Yeah...
33:50
and putting them in in basketball, and then right around 1:00, 1:30, I'll start to really look, because I gotta let these things move and roll, and then I will look to go ahead and fade the big line moves, and then I'm wind, I'll wind up with a whole bunch of winning prop bets, like last season winners, Whitman, Price, and Ha- Haddad, basking in the Maui sun, Gil.
34:11
That's a Running Man reference. [laughs] Wow. So, and just to clarify, so you are not going to be out and about at sports books. This is you at your house sh- shooing your wife and son away. What are you eating, Steve?
34:22
Yeah. Yeah, what, you know, I mean, this is, this is you at your home going crazy, right?
34:26
Yeah, I don't eat nothing, and then right, like, early in the second quarter, I finally bail and I'm gonna head to the South Point and watch the game with friends at the South Point.
34:34
So you don't even mind missing some of the game. Your, you, that, your, your work is done. You're like, "I'll just catch it when I catch it at the South Point." Oh, I mind it, but you can't work 24/7, 365 days a year.
34:44
So I got friends in town, so boom, we're gonna watch the game together. Steve Fezzik, everybody.
34:48
Two-time, only two-time Westgate Supercontest champ, and of course, uh, cashing once again in the most recent Circa Millions. T9, tie for ninth. This- Way to go, Steve... this guy. Thank you, Steve. That's exciting.
35:00
Let's go. Good luck betting. Appreciate it, man. Thank you. Thanks, and good luck to all you listeners. Steve Fezzik, everybody. Again, @FezzikSports. Follow at your own peril. Chris Bennett from the Circa Risk Room.
35:13
This'll be a treat. Next, on the other side, it's a Numbers Game special big game edition right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:19
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:33
Back on a Numbers Game special big game edition here on this Super Bowl Sunday.
35:37
Gil Alexander and my little buddy Kelly Bedell alongside everybody, uh, on this Super Bowl 60 morning, five hours or so before, uh, the Super Bowl starts, five and a half hours. I just wanna read a couple tweets.
35:48
One, Paul Zang, uh, Kelly, on Twitter- Mm-hmm... uh, who says, uh, he says, "Just saying, I get used to A and G on a football Sunday." Yeah, okay, don't say that to me. Well- Don't say that to me...
35:59
you get it for the rest of the season. That's right. [laughs] But for the rest of the year. Good point, Kelly. That's absolutely right.
36:04
And then one of our g- one of our favorite guests who, who isn't with us today, Drew Dincic. Uh, we were being alerted about a picture he just put out.
36:11
He's at the, [laughs] he's in Italy with wine and food in front of mountains on a balcony. This kid. Yeah, sounds about right. Good for him. Sounds about right.
36:19
Uh, this is not one of our regular guests, not because we don't like him, but because he just isn't one of our regular guests.
36:24
I think the last time I saw Chris Bennett was when we, uh, did a panel together at BetBash a couple years back, if I'm not mistaken. Uh, Chris is the sports book director here at Circa.
36:33
You can follow him at, on Twitter at the very clever BetChris, though with an H, we should point out- [laughs]... Twitter handle, not to be confused with another Bet Chris. Chris joins us now from the Risk Room.
36:44
How you doing, Chris? Doing well. How you guys doing? Doing very well. Can we just start with that basic thing? Let's just assume nobody knows anything about what you do.
36:54
What is the role of a risk room, generally speaking?
36:59
So we are coming to you live from the room where we do, uh, all of the risk management for Circa Sports, and that's, uh, six states, including here in Nevada, and, uh, for our destination sportsbook at Circa.
37:14
We are the ones setting the odds for all of the, uh, markets that we're offering. We are booking everything here.
37:22
We are making the decision on what the point spread total money line should be on the Super Bowl, along with everything else, and, uh, it's a tremendous challenge because this element of gaming, you're not guaranteed to win.
37:37
We need to have a certain skill set to do pricing and bookmaking so that we are going to be a winner over the long run.
37:45
Uh, but there is no guarantee of that, and so we are very much dialed in, in this room, to risk management. Uh, not a customer-facing position.
37:55
We need to really know the sports, the teams, the odds, the probabilities inside and out so that we can put our po- put ourselves in a position to make money.
38:06
The difference between a normal football Sunday, a normal NFL Sunday, and this, a Super Bowl Sunday, I would imagine is, is massive.
38:14
Maybe the headline is what you just said, which is, uh, this could be a big, you know, reading between the lines, this could be a big loss if you don't manage things carefully.
38:23
But what is generally like the biggest difference between this and a normal Sunday?
38:30
So you're going to see a lot more varied customers that are placing bets on Super Bowl Sunday because this is a unique event, and Las Vegas is a destination for the Super Bowl.
38:44
Uh, we offer far more markets for the game itself than we do any other game of the year. Uh, one of those that we re- really like to highlight here are the Circa Squares, which is, uh, a way to bet on the
39:00
squares that you can get at a traditional Super Bowl party, uh, you might go to. And here you can choose what squares you wanna bet on instead of being dealt a square at random, uh, at a party you might go to.
39:16
So it's a, it's a whole different game, a lot more betting volume than any other game during the year. Usually easier for the sportsbook to manage than other games over the course of the year.
39:29
You take a lot of bets where you don't need to move the line, and as a result, you expect to do better on this game than any other game over the course of the year.
39:40
Let's, uh, let's put a pin in that, in that squares thing because I wanna get to what your specific role is versus your team's.
39:47
But so with Circa specifically, uh, early in the two-week period between the championship games and the Super Bowl, you guys got a big bet on the money line on the Patriots.
39:58
Did that kind of guide much of what happened afterwards in the next two weeks, Chris, for you guys?
40:06
So as of the conference championships concluding two weeks ago, uh, we knew our position on the Super Bowl futures, which were good for the Patriots, but pretty bad for the Seahawks.
40:20
So in taking a large wager on the Patriots money line for the Super Bowl, what that did is it evened out- Ah... our position on the game to a degree.
40:32
Uh, and the bets on the S- Patriots money line were manageable for us to work with. We knew if we needed to write bets on the Seahawks from that point forward, we could probably do it at a favorable price.
40:47
But, uh, it wa- actually wasn't that difficult of a decision to take the big bet fairly early on, on the Patriots, given the futures position we had. That makes, that makes tons of sense. Um, okay.
40:59
So you alluded to the squares. Uh, we were talking a little bit off air, you, me, and Kelly before this.
41:04
Um, you seem pretty calm, which is, I guess a lot of people might be like, "Wow, I, I thought it'd be more frenzied." But you were saying earlier that you, you delegate a lot of this.
41:13
You, you have your own jurisdiction that you pay attention to. So yeah.
41:19
This will be our seventh Super Bowl at Circa Sports, and for the first few years, I was doing most of the heavy lifting when it came to our Super Bowl, uh, offering.
41:30
And over time, I've handed that off to others on the team and had a smaller workload for myself directly.
41:37
But two markets I've done, uh, all seven years now, and one of them is the Circa Squares, which I mentioned earlier. And seven years ago, I had no point of comparison for what the odds should be.
41:52
Uh, I just had somebody help me out- [laughs]...
41:54
with some historical data on what the last digit of teams' scores were at the end of the first quarter, first half, third quarter, and the end of the game to help me with probabilities.
42:08
And I, it took me many hours, but I came up with something that first year, and it worked out pretty well.
42:15
And over the last few years, uh, that has gotten easier, but it's still a challenge, especially if you have a point spread in total that's an outlier, which we don't have this year, so that's a good thing for my ability to do a good job of pricing that market.
42:32
Uh, and people love betting the squares, and so we try to have those available as soon as possible.
42:39
We put them out, uh, by about 1:00 on the Monday after the conference championship game, so they have almost two full weeks to bet the Circa Squares.
42:49
And then the other market that I'm still managing because, uh, it gets a lot of action, and it's fun- Is the MVP market.
42:58
Uh, this is probably my favorite awards market in any sport, and people just love betting Super Bowl MVP What, uh, I think that's probably interesting to most people, right?
43:09
Like, like, you know, everybody expects, oh, it's probably all buttoned up. But you, you admit you were working, like, like sort of learning on the job with Squares and that kind of thing.
43:16
Here's what I really wanna know. What could happen today? So right now we have, what is it now? It's, uh, five and a half hours roughly before kickoff.
43:26
What could happen, Chris, between now and kickoff that would just send you into a frenzy? That's a good question. Uh, [laughs] An injury report- It's hard to-... something like that? Yeah.
43:42
It, it would probably have to be something, you know, outside of, like, the normal, uh, betting activity you could ever see.
43:50
And, you know, you hate to even utter the words, but, you know, if one of the teams got into a bus accident- Oh, boy... on the way to the stadium- Yeah... or, or something crazy.
43:59
Or they had, like, all had food poisoning from w- their dinner last night, and, like, they could barely get onto the field and play. Stuff like that, like,
44:09
we'd have to take everything off the board probably if that information, you know, came out before the game started, and we'd be scrambling to figure out what markets we can put back up, and at what limits they should be offered.
44:21
That would be an absolute nightmare. Um, obviously, we don't want anything bad to happen to- No... uh, the players and teams.
44:29
But also, selfishly, yeah, for us running our business and trying to react to that sort of thing would be a really an unfortunate thing to have to deal with.
44:41
Well, well, last question then, because along those lines, so it's one thing to get that Patriots bet, and you were already set up, as you pointed out, the way that your books were managed.
44:49
The, the Patriots bet actually was beneficial for you guys based on your position at that time. What if someone rolls up here in an hour, Chris?
44:56
Someone just off the street, you, you didn't get any, you know, inkling beforehand, any warning, and they're like, "Yeah, I wanna put a million on," I don't know, either side, right?
45:06
What ha- what's the cutoff point where for you guys it's like, "Ah, we can't take it anymore, 'cause there's no way we can, we can balance"? Is there a cutoff point? There would be, yeah.
45:17
We've said that we'll take a million-dollar bet from anybody on the game, and specifically that would be, uh, either side of the point spread, or to win a million on the Seahawks money line, or s- if someone wanted to risk a million on the Patriots money line.
45:35
But we're not gonna take that five minutes before kickoff, because we just wouldn't have time to put ourselves in a reasonable position if it's that close to kickoff.
45:45
So we probably need at least an hour before kickoff to promise anybody a bet of that size, and as it gets closer to kickoff, we're gonna have to scale that down a bit. Chris, really appreciate your time.
45:59
I know it's a busy day, man. Thank you so much. You're welcome. Chris- [upbeat music]
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