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Jan 28, 2025
A Numbers Game | Hour 1 | January 28, 2025
A Numbers Game | Hour 1 | January 28, 2025
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
This is Kelly Bittling, everybody, producer number nine, with the old two, uh, the old two finger- Ooh... you know. Sometimes it's a full wave. That's how it's going now. Sometimes just the deuces. I like it.
0:27
Uh, packed show today, and maybe an opportunity, Kelly, to, uh, talk about other things besides football, catching the world up, including perhaps ourselves- [laughs]...
0:36
about other things that are happening in the world of sports and sports betting.
0:40
Uh, Al Bernstein will join us along those lines 'cause there's a big fight this weekend, light heavyweight championship of the world between David "El Monstro" Benavidez.
0:50
That's The Monster for those of you scoring at home. Someone did their prep work. [laughs] Oh, I just, I just know that part 'cause I think Tyson gave him that nickname, is the Mexican Monster.
0:59
Oh, th- okay, that's pretty cool. Yeah. Uh- If Mike Tyson gives you a nickname, yeah, th- that's sticking... and then, uh, that's against Morrell.
1:05
So, Al Bernstein, the Hall of Fame boxing announcer, will join us a little later to talk about that. Uh, Mike Somich, Sombombing, Super Bowl and beyond. Will Hill with his Super Bowl bets and beyond.
1:14
We will talk Super Bowl MVP. Drew Didsick on championship round gone by, Super Bowl LIX, and the NBA as well from Drew. Uh, we gotta get caught up on the whole Jimmy Butler mishegas as well. That's going on in Miami.
1:29
Um, you ha- you had a good night in the NBA, right? A lot went your way. Oh, man, yeah. Uh, one of those, one of those kinda lucky nights. We, we always say, "Hey, you're gonna complain about the bad beats-" Yeah...
1:38
so re- you know, recognize when you get l- when you get a little lucky. I, I mean, I did have the Clippers last night. They came up a couple points short, but it was...
1:46
I mean, if anybody watched the end of the Lakers-Hornets game, like, I ended up on the Hornets plus five and a half. Lakers won by five. There was just- Nice...
1:54
a ri- ridiculous series where they were shooting fr- Hornets were shooting free throws near the end of the game.
1:59
Uh, I was going nuts because the Timberwolves looked like they were gonna cover the entire time, the seven that I was laying, uh, w- with that team.
2:06
Looked like they were gonna cover the entire time till about the final minute, you know, where team ahead lets up, Hawks get a couple easy buckets. I'm pulling my hair out. Plinko, Plinko.
2:16
Well, 'cause you're like, you know, I'm worried about a point spread. Yeah. These players aren't worried about a point spread, and then it's, it's Wolves up six, Rudy Gobert at the line. Oh.
2:25
And I'm, there's like 30 seconds left, and I'm like, "Oh, gosh, Rudy, just make one. Just make one. I'll take a push and be happy," right? Clank, clank. Uh, Hawks get the ball, inbound the ball. They're down six.
2:39
Lose the ball, turn the ball over.
2:41
The Wolves do the whole, "We have the easy fast break, could lay it in e- any second, but no, we're gonna pull the ball out, and we're gonna run the t- clock out because it's under 24 seconds.
2:49
We could easily run this out." And the ball gets passed around enough, Gil, that it ends up in Rudy Gobert's hands again, and he goes, "Well, I'm just gonna dunk it since I missed those two free throws."
2:58
And you covered it the whole way. [laughs] So I covered it because of Rudy Gobert dunking bec- out of spite for missing free throws. There you go. Well done. So, yeah, sometimes you gotta get lucky with this stuff.
3:06
Uh, another amazing college basketball finish. I, I, I just, I briefly alluded to this yesterday when Fezzik was here about how the, the Kansas-Houston game this weekend, and I really didn't even do it justice, right?
3:17
The Kansas-Houston game, I talked about the finish. Uh, Houston had a zero, had a, had a f- four-tenths of a percentage win probability, so it was, you know,.04%. Uh, actually, it was.4 or.04. Maybe it was.4%.
3:33
Yeah, four-tenths of a percent. Um- So you're telling me there's a chance. Houston was down six in regulation. Um,
3:40
they, you know, as part of their comeback in the last minute or so, it involved a five-second violation and then a bad foul, and anyway, they got to overtime.
3:48
They were down six, Houston was, with less than 20 seconds left. First of all, Kansas was at the line shooting two up six. I failed to mention that part, right? Uh, they miss both free throws.
3:58
Good free throw shooter, too. Houston hits a three with about 13 seconds left, and then of course you know what happens. Steal, three, splash, we go to double overtime where Houston wins.
4:10
So that was an amazing finish on Saturday. And then last night, uh, did you see the Arizona-Iowa State finish? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Uh, Caleb- I feel like everybody and their mother bet that game last night.
4:20
I feel like it's the most bet- Well, it w-... college basketball game of the year. They both were the same situation 'cause it was a home dog, right?
4:25
A very slight home dog playing against the nationally, uh, excuse me, in the case of Kansas and, and, uh, and Houston, you know, both teams high, highly ranked.
4:34
This one was, you know, Iowa State towards the top of the rankings in college basketball, a top five team, and, um, but same situation with a home dog, a slight home dog, and Caleb Love playing in his 14th year of college basketball sinks a 55-footer to force overtime, and you know why?
4:51
'Cause Stevie Fezzik was on Arizona, and he's the biggest luck box I've ever met in my entire life. He's a great sports bettor, and he's by far the luckiest human being I've ever met in my life.
5:00
[laughs] That is why Caleb Love hit that jumper, and of course Arizona goes on to crush them in overtime. I, I just like what you said about Caleb Love because that's when I saw the highlight.
5:08
I'm like, "I feel like this guy's been playing college basketball for 70 years now." Um, we are not usually the show that talks about, uh, coaching hirings and firings in the NFL.
5:18
We usually stick, you know, stick to the sports betting part of things, but, you know, yesterday there was an opportunity to talk.
5:23
You know, 'cause there were four press conferences, four introductory press conferences in the NFL yesterday. It gives us a little chance to sort of try to condense it.
5:31
And I'm reminded, Dave Ross, uh, the, the, the host of By the Books that precedes us here on the network, and I, uh, appreciate this great joke, uh, Kelly, uh, that Jerry Seinfeld once told Norm Macdonald.
5:42
And Jerry Seinfeld, uh, uh, prefaced the joke to s- by saying to Norm Macdonald, Jerry Seinfeld, uh, a Jew, Norm Macdonald, a Gentile, he prefaced it by saying to Norm Macdonald, "Norm, I'm gonna tell you the greatest Jewish joke ever, and you're not gonna understand it."
5:56
And the joke goes, two Gentile businessmen, two non-Jews, are meeting on the street, and one says to the other, "How's business?" And the guy responds, "Great." That's the joke.
6:09
Now, if you're in the tribe like I am, that is hilarious because- [laughs] Very... now if you're not, you probably don't understand it. Nor McDonald didn't understand it either. Do you understand the joke?
6:18
You- We, we prepped you on it. Yeah, I was gonna say, you and Dave were talking about this for a w- I don't even know how long last week.
6:23
[laughs] The joke is, right, that those of us who, who, uh, are in the tribe, uh, in our DNA we like to complain about everything, right?
6:31
So no two Jews bus- Jewish businessmen would come to each other and say, "How's business?" [laughs] Or we'd be like, "Well, you know, the secretary isn't doing so well. The bookkeep- the bookkeeper stole money from me."
6:41
You know, whatever it is, right? But it's, it's both simultaneously a joke about us and a joke about, about you because it's like, of course you guys wouldn't get it because everything is, is peachy keen.
6:51
And I would just say maybe just a, a shade below complete authenticity in, in the response, and so it's a joke on both sides, and that's how the NFL head coaching hiring press conferences seemed to me yesterday.
7:03
Can we start with Dallas and Brian Schottenheimer? He had this to say. We're gonna win, and we're gonna win a championship. Otherwise, why are we doing it? Okay.
7:17
That was also buttressed by Stephen Jones, Jerry's son, who of course is in Dallas' front office and will probably own the team one day, uh, saying, uh, you know, our, our drought, using air quotes.
7:28
Well, uh, you haven't reached the NFC championship since after the 1995 season when, uh, you won the Super Bowl.
7:33
That's the longest streak not being in a championship game in the entire NFC now that Washington got to it this, [laughs] this year.
7:41
And so I just find Brian Schottenheimer, who last week when I was on the show, I said if they end up hiring Brian Schottenheimer, what did I say?
7:47
This is basically Jerry Jones saying to the Dallas Cowboy fan base, "Yeah, I don't care anymore. We're just gonna ride it through. It's all about me, and the, uh, we, I'm gonna put anybody I want as the head coach."
7:58
And that's kind of the message it sent. Uh, for Brian Schottenheimer to come out there and be like, "Yeah, we're gonna win the championship. Otherwise, why are we doing it?" [laughs] That's... You're not. You're not.
8:06
You're just not. Stop it. I- it's just we- we've gotten so far past the day of being able to say stuff like this and people, and people not, not have the immediate reaction of like, "All right, bro. Sure, bro.
8:18
You got it." How's, how's business? Great. Um, this is... You know, look, have, have people overcome press conferences before? Dan Campbell did with biting the knees. It's done, gone pretty well for him.
8:28
Let's just say Jim Zorn in the maroon and black when he was hired by Washington didn't go over so well, and we knew it was doomed from the beginning.
8:34
Um, this is Aaron Glenn being introduced as the New York Jets' new head coach. Players that's here now, put your seat belts on and get ready for the ride. Put your seat belts on and get ready for the ride.
8:46
Listen, there are gonna be some challenges, but with challenges becomes opportunity, gets opportunity. But here's what I do know. We're the freaking New York Jets, so we're built for this [beep]. Yeah, you are.
8:59
[clapping] Yeah, you are, Aaron Glenn. Uh, yeah. Listen, I want this job. I interviewed for a number of them, but I wanted this job. Yeah, you're the, you're the freaking New York Jets all right.
9:11
We're built for this blank. [laughs] Jets have the longest playoff drought in the NFL, 14 seasons. What are, what are you built for? No, they're built for the- What are you? They're built for the suffering.
9:21
Uh, [laughs] what are you- [laughs] I don't, uh... Is there anybody who comes out of that Cowboys press conference and that Jets press conference thinking to themselves, "Oh, yeah, he's right.
9:32
We are the Dallas Cowboys, and we are playing for a championship. We are the New York Jets. We're the freaking New York Jets"? I to- I took that very differently from Aaron Glenn.
9:41
From Aaron Glenn it was the, it was the, "Look, w- this is gonna be tough. We've been through a lot as a franchise, so we're gonna d- we're gonna be okay because of that."
9:50
And now we- Now the, now the Cowboys is just straight delusional. And now... [laughs] Well. [laughs] That's just straight delusional. I, I find them both delusional.
9:56
[laughs] And now perhaps Captain Delusion, Liam Cohen, being hired as the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. How do we make Trevor Lawrence and this offense as dynamic and explosive as we can be, right?
10:09
We've gotta build it around him as well, right? We've gotta make every part of this about improvement, and he will be a part of that process. He's earned that right.
10:20
I cannot respect his toughness and mentality and work ethic more than I do already from afar, and this'll all, this'll all be about Trevor right now. Well, more famously what Liam did yesterday is he said, you ready?
10:34
Quote, "Duvalll." Yeah, but I guess that's just how he started it, the press conference. Unquote. I have no idea. "Duvalll." It was great. It was awesome.
10:44
By the way, they're five and 18 their last 23, tied for the worst record in the NFL since week 13 of 2023.
10:49
He's gone from the Rams to Kentucky to the Rams to Kentucky, now to Jacksonville only because Trent Baalke resigned. And finally, Pete Carroll with the Las Vegas Raiders.
10:58
[clapping] With our guys, I know [laughs] we have a good draw for people from out of town. [cheers] There you go. There you go. That's what I'm talking about. Hey, Mark, settle down a little bit.
11:08
[laughs] That's a joke about Mark Davis, the owner, when in fact it was Marshawn Lynch who screamed the Raiders, interrupting Pete Carroll's press conference. Until you have a quarterback, you're nothing.
11:18
And oh, by the way, Raiders, um, you have the second-worst win percentage in the NFL over the last 20 seasons, 367, since getting to the Super Bowl after the 2002 season with our own Rich Gannon.
11:29
You haven't won a single playoff game and have only been to the playoffs twice. You have no quarterback. What is the saddest situation of all those teams? Well, it's always gonna be Jacksonville, but they're all sad.
11:40
[laughs] Again, how's business? [laughs] It's great. [laughs] We'll come back. Drew Dincic on the NBA and NFL next. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
11:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on- VSiN, the sports betting network. Want to bet smarter? Start with smarter insights. Right now, you can check out VSiN pro articles like VSiN's pro Super Bowl preview.
12:06
That's VSiN's Super Bowl preview. Greg Peterson has the college basketball best bets, and a Circus Super Bowl squares explanation guide. How about that?
12:14
Later today, you can check out Zach Cohen's best NBA props and picks, Jonathan Davis' best NHL player props and bets, and Lou Finicaro's UFC Fight Night 250 preview.
12:24
To get access to all the articles on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for $59 off an annual subscription with promo code ANG. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Let's go, Alexander.
12:36
We get tweets of betting the book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. This is from, let's see, Bruce Dobigan.
12:41
"Your Seinfeld joke reminds me, [laughs] reminds me of the one my Jewish friend told me about the old Jewish guy who was lying on the road after being hit by a car.
12:49
A concerned passerby kneels by him and says, 'Are you okay?' To which the old guy says, 'I'm comfortable.'" [laughs] Ryan Thompson, "Appreciate Gil censoring himself in the first segment by saying blank.
13:01
I guess he only goes blue after hours on the mega pod." Yes, that's true. Uh, yes. Yes. Uh, yes. Uh, yes. [laughs] Yes. Uh, yes.
13:08
Uh, Hoops by Hoots breaking, "Liam Cohen has now replaced Scott Hanson on NFL RedZone after his rendition of Duvall," uh, what is it? "Duvall." I can't even do it, it was so bad.
13:19
Uh, "Had producers falling head over heels in love with him." Mark Geiger, "How's business? From the Oy Vey department, with these new coaches, number of Super Bowl wins next five years. Zero is at minus 1800," he says.
13:30
Wow. "Pete is a touch older than yours truly, who has difficulty getting out of bed, and it goes downhill from there. Yo Boomer, best of luck to you." Well, Pete Carroll's gonna be 74, September 15th.
13:39
We should all aspire to have his energy at his age. Yeah. That much I will not, uh, I will not take away from him. Three Jack H, "3-1, 3-1.
13:46
Setting a reminder to bet all alt under season win totals for Cowboys, Jags, Raiders, and the, [laughs] and the freaking New York Jets.
13:53
The Raiders could at least be fun to watch, though, waiting for Pete to announce Marshawn as an assistant coach."
13:59
Um, D Gen, Southern Gent, answering the question that you asked me, "I'll tell you what the saddest situation of all those is, Kelly. It's the Cowboys, and it ain't even close," he says.
14:06
"A delusional owner that continues to rake in profits while his loyal but delusional fan base continues to support an abysmal product. Also, my wife's a Cowboys diehard- Yeah... he adds at the end.
14:16
I think it's probably the Cowboys, too, because of a lot of that, and it's... I don't, like, what were Jerry's comments, too, at the press conference of like, "He has no experience. Like, he has none at all.
14:26
Like, this is the ultimate leap of faith." And it's like, "Wait, what? Are you, like, bragging about this?" That sounds like him. Like, you're bragging about hiring a guy that's, like, not qualified for the job?
14:33
Is that what you're saying? Like I said, we're not usually the show that talks about hirings and firings, but this was such a royal flush of crapitude yesterday that you almost had to, [laughs] you almost had to.
14:41
I, I believe in Aaron Glenn, I do, but the problem is, like, that Jet, like, that Jets roster, I, I mean, this is gonna take...
14:49
You're gonna have to overhaul this probably three times before you're even at a place to start again with the New York Jets. Aaron Glenn, who would not answer questions about Aaron Rodgers either.
14:59
Is he gonna be your starter? Right. Yeah, I- He avoided that thought...
15:01
I mean, reading between the lines, it, it sure sounded like that's gonna be an, a, um, a, a large amount of ugly conversations ahead this off season. Drew Dincic joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:12
You can follow him on Twitter, whale_capper, the host of not one but two podcasts, The Deep Dive, Dincic Classic with, uh, Andy Molator, and of course, NBC Sports The Ed- uh, NBC Sports Bet The Edge, pardon me, could be called The Edge, that'd be even cooler, with Jay Croucher.
15:27
Drew Dincic now joins us. How you doing, man? Great. Yeah, we'll take you to the edge. We'll take you past it. [laughs] Um, the, um, no, the, uh, the, uh, the commentary was great.
15:38
I could've list- listened to that for another five minutes. [laughs] The, uh, the coaching cycle, yeah, wa- uh, we woke up and the NFL is now Major League Baseball.
15:46
There's haves and have-nots, and it's about quarterback.
15:49
Um, and the owners that are in charge of these teams that are trying to find their feet, uh, it's, it's just, it feels like this is gonna, you know, we're gonna be doing this again, you know?
15:59
Ch- changed half of the teams at the bottom to the teams that we're making jokes about next year, and then the next, you know, the following season it'll be these same teams again, it feels like.
16:08
I, I, uh, I'm kind of, um, taken aback by, uh, the degree of, um, you know, just the, the, the lack of vision, the lack of, uh, um, of any ability to develop coaching talent, uh, at these NFL, um, you know, opportunities.
16:25
It seems crazy to me that, uh, we're recycling some of these names. Uh, it was, uh, it was a comedy show yesterday. It sure was. Um- Where's Deion? I'm still just blown away by this.
16:34
If you had asked me two months ago who, what, you know, it, should Deion Sanders be an NFL head coach, I'd be like, "Meh, I don't know. I don't know if that's really gonna work out."
16:42
But compared to some of these other, like, names that are getting signed? I was convinced he, Jerry Jones was waiting for Kellen Moore.
16:48
I, I, w- who he would have been able to interview had the Eagles won or lost this past week. Kellen Moore was available for the interview by rule. But no, he's like, "No, we'll just go with this guy."
16:57
We'll go with that guy. [laughs] And if his name was not Schottenheimer, right? Right. Would he even be a, you know, would it even be that? I, I don't know.
17:06
I don't, I don't know that anyone was banging down Brian Schottenheimer's door for, for interviews, so. Yeah. Well- Uh-... yeah, Shanahan's kid is doing well. He is. Maybe Schottenheimer's kid'll be good.
17:14
[laughs] Absolutely. It's possible. You're absolutely right. Um, okay. By the way, let's just ask you the question. Of those four that hired head coaches yesterday, which is the, the saddest situation? Ooh.
17:25
[laughs] I, it's probably the Raiders and Pete Carroll. Everybody's got a different answer. Yeah.
17:35
Um, I g- I, I saw, you step way back and you're like, could, you know, are the Raiders the type of team that could've afforded to take a swing on a young unknown to try to, you know, kind of rescue what's going on there?
17:47
And you look at the roster and you're like, "Well, that wasn't gonna work."
17:50
Um, and so getting a guy who has some, you know, s- has some experience and can build a culture and, uh, and all that, uh, you know, that, like, that idea makes sense.
18:01
But if that's the way they needed to go, they should've at least kicked the tires on, like, you know, are, are, are there any coaches at existing spots that are kind of wearing out their welcome, like a McDermott or a Tomlin, right?
18:13
Like, anyone who we could poach who is, we kn- we know to have, at least still have close to a fastball in today's NFL. Um, and instead they went with Pete Carroll.
18:24
And, like, I don't wanna get super weird, but, like, Pete Carroll is known for a very laissez-faire type of program that he likes to build, and now you're bringing young men into the, the desert, and you're gonna put them in a Pete Carroll type of system.
18:40
Is a l- it's a little, uh, oil and water, uh, in my opinion, as far as building a culture.
18:46
Um, and you know, I think ultimately all of these, all of these teams, all of these, uh, kind of f- floundering franchises, all, the only thing that matters is find your Jayden Daniels. Yes. Right? Yes.
18:59
Get, get the, get the right quarterback and 20 years of sins get wiped away in one season, right? Yeah. Like, that's all [laughs] it takes. Yeah.
19:08
And now this year, is anyone who is drafting a quarterback going to find that guy? Probably not. But you never know.
19:14
Uh, and I think the, um, you know, the, the, the general kind of, um, you know, the, the, the lack of, uh, of, of anything that constitutes kind of good p- good, uh, kind of long-term building is really the thing that m- makes me the most, uh, frustrated here.
19:30
'Cause, um, like, there was a lot of good football this year, but it was the same...
19:35
It was the teams that we knew were gonna be good and that have established [laughs] quarterbacks and, you know, were playing each other, and it was rare.
19:41
And there was a lot of bad football this year and, and sort of the, the gulf between the good and the bad has, has never been broader. Um, and, uh, it's, uh, it's pretty, uh, sobering. And
19:52
you know, I think the dunking on Jerry Jones and Schottenheimer is extremely warranted.
19:57
Um, but in that same breath, like, that's the one kind of hire that I think probably has short-term success just because of how talented that roster is and all of those guys if they're healthy next year.
20:07
Like, that's a team that's gonna be knocking on the door of the playoffs, if not clearly in. So, um, yeah, I mean, they have the best player in it. They have the best defensive player in football in Micah Parsons.
20:16
If he, if he plays 17 games, like, the, the Cowboys are going to be good regardless of how, you know, whatever nonsense Schottenheimer's doing coordinating offense there.
20:25
So, um, you know, it's, it's a, uh, it's a, it's a weird time. The increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots. One show has been saying that about sports for, for a few years now.
20:35
[laughs] I used to say it about baseball all the time. And you're right, it is about football. What about the pinnacle of, of the NFL, the Chiefs and the Eagles in Super Bowl LV with the Chiefs - Yeah...
20:44
one and a half point favorites at the moment. We'll see what happens over the next 12 days. Did you make a bet already?
20:51
Uh, I did, and funny enough, I pulled up my preseason numbers just out of curiosity, and, uh, I would have made the Chiefs 1.39 point favorites on a neutral against the Eagles preseason, so we've learned nothing.
21:03
[laughs] Um, we are back to kind of exactly what we knew. There was a gap between these guys, and the Chiefs were better, I guess. Um,
21:10
as I kind of look at the game, um, the, what is hidden in sort of the, just the awe of Mahomes here again is that the Chiefs' defense is, I think, um, a little smoke and mirrors right now. Um, they succeeded
21:28
certainly against, uh, C.J. Stroud and the Texans by ramping up the pr- pressure, um, when the moment was right. That was brilliant. Um, they succeeded against the Bills, I think largely 'cause the Bills sort of just
21:39
kind of lost their, lost their cool. Allen in particular I didn't think played a good game at all. Um, and you know, Brady could have tacked into more, um, uh, more Cook, and it would've been more successful, I think.
21:51
And I know it was a close victory, but I don't think the score really belied how, how, uh, how big the gap was there.
21:57
Um, but, uh, the run defense for the Chiefs got, got pretty exposed now two weeks in a row, and now they're taking on Saquon Barkley.
22:04
I think that there is a very real world where this is just the Barkley show and he runs away with MVP and this is his kind of Hall of Fame moment, um, after not going for the record in, uh, Week 18.
22:16
So, um, I played some Eagles money line plus 116. I think it's a pretty weak angle.
22:21
I think pretty much this market looks exactly, you know, pretty correct, and, uh, really it just comes down to if the Chiefs run defense, uh, is, is...
22:29
If that's the same unit we saw against the Bills and the, and the Texans, uh, then the Eagles are gonna be able to put some serious pain on them on the ground. I like the, I like the honesty, though.
22:37
It's a pretty weak angle, but here you go. Here's my bet. Eagles on the money line for Drew Dincic. More on the Super Bowl, NBA, Australian Open thoughts. Drew Dincic joining us on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
22:49
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23:20
Flavor this good is just a click away. By the way, the reason I don't spell sauce is 'cause in the read it's, just tells me not to spell sauce, which is why I think it's pretty amusing. [laughs] Don't, don't spell sauce.
23:30
People know how to spell. Uh, we get tweets that beat to the book. This is from, uh, @cspackler@expert. He says, "Enjoying the craptitude replays and confusing ethnic humor today. We need more cowbell."
23:40
[laughs] I enjoyed it quite myself. Uh, Rick Ollier, "Has Pete Carroll moved into your building yet? And if so, have you introduced him to Delicious? #LetsRide."
23:49
Shooter McGavin, "Gil, I was hoping Fezzik would have touched on this yesterday, but I would love to hear yours and Drew's opinion on going for two down by five.
23:57
I thought the Bills should have went for it even before the penalty. The guys I was watching with did not." The Bills down fi- was that the 21-16? Was that the 21-16 I'm thinking of?
24:10
I'm trying to think what the score was, where they g- where the penalty put them at the one-yard line, if I'm not mistaken, and then they went...
24:15
Yeah, I think when you go to the one-yard line, if I'm thinking about the right thing- Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah... you absolutely go for it at that point. Especially w- yeah. Yeah.
24:21
Especially when you have a Josh Allen on your team. But as Tony Romo, I, I make fun of Tony Romo a lot with all of his comments, "I think we probably go for it here, Jim," on the fourth and five [laughs] at the end.
24:30
Yeah, no, Tony, we get it. He was all over the, uh, the scouting report that the, the Chiefs were all over the fact that Josh Allen on the sneak goes over left guard, so shout out to Romo on that.
24:39
Uh, Dave Ross, [laughs] who hosts the show before us, By The Books, "Rushed back to my, uh, car to listen to Gil and Kelly talk Dallas Cowboys.
24:47
Had no idea Gil would use this classic joke to describe the Cowboys' coaching sitch, but man, did he nail this joke." Uh, Jerry Seinfeld, "It still kills me that you told Norm. He wouldn't get the joke."
24:56
Uh, Drew Ditzig joins us once again to, uh, discuss multiple sports.
25:00
Real quick before we move on, anything else in Super Bowl 59 that you're, let's say, anticipating with props, that you're ready to pounce on if it comes up a certain way?
25:09
Anything like- Yeah, I mean, I think, uh, if you're not trying to get $100,000 down on a side and you just wanna bet, I personally think Eagles money line is highly correlated with Barkley MVP.
25:19
Um, I found some three to one out there yesterday.
25:22
Um, I think there is a very, very high likelihood that if the game state comes about that allows the Eagles to get this across the line, it's because Barkley has a couple home run plays.
25:34
And, um, you know, he, he specifically is the type of player that is boom or bust to the degree that it makes sense to swing in this market. Like, if he busts, the Eagles are not winning. Yeah.
25:43
And so d- forget about any of the other names that are Eagles. And if he booms, then it is, he becomes the easiest decision if the Eagles win. So, um, I'm s- you're see, you have 250 up right now.
25:55
I think fair price is closer to 180, in my opinion. And, uh, I think he makes up something like 75 to 80% of the equity for the Eagles.
26:02
Yeah, Patrick Mahomes, the short shot to win Super Bowl MVP, plus 105, followed by Saquon at plus 250, the, uh, shortest Eagle on the board.
26:09
Mahomes, by the way, in addition to the Chiefs trying to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls in the Super Bowl era, Mahomes trying to become the first player to win three consecutive Super Bowl MVP trophies as well.
26:22
Only three have won back to backs. Uh, Bradshaw, uh, number two... Oh, no, excuse me, Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes trying to be, uh, the first to do three in a row.
26:34
Not Brady, not Montana, none of those guys won two in a row. Oh, man, that makes... All that does is make me- Yeah... nervous.
26:38
Like, is there a, are, are we gonna have a fatigue or something from Mahomes voting or something- [laughs]... that we're gonna look for any other reason to find another Chief to, Chief to give it to if they win?
26:48
The only reason I never... Sorry, Drew. Drew is patiently waiting. But the only reason I don't do the fatigue thing during the Super Bowl is 'cause they're, they're voting on it on the fly.
26:57
And so because they're voting it on the fly, I don't think they even process that kind of stuff. They should have less time to think about stuff like that- Yeah...
27:02
and then dwell on it Like, "I don't wanna give it to Mahomes." Yeah. Yeah. Right? That kind of thing. I think that makes sense, yeah. And, and who was the running back?
27:07
Was it Damien Williams, Drew, that one year where, like, Mahomes- Sure... had no business winning it, and they gave it, you know, they gave it to him anyway, so. Yeah, I mean, that was his crowning...
27:15
[laughs] You know, that was his, uh- Yeah... his he's arrived moment. Um, I remember betting a lot live market on MVP Mahomes that year, um, they, as they were down 11.
27:26
'Cause at that point it's the same sort of calculus, right? Like, either the Chiefs just lose this game or Mahomes brings them back, and at which point, like, he's clearly the MVP.
27:35
And the money line and the Mahomes MVP were disconnected 'cause he had been playing poorly to that point. I would say the same thing applies in this game regardless, like, which is if you're gonna...
27:43
If you like the Chiefs in this game and you want skin in the MVP market, I would just wait and wait for a time in the game where the Chiefs are losing. The Chiefs play close games.
27:52
I don't know if you've watched the Chiefs- [laughs]... um, much, but, uh- Really? Really?... they, they do not- Huh... they do not run away and hide when they're playing good teams.
27:59
They tend to- Could you, could you check on that, Kelly, if he's- Yes. [laughs]... if that checks out?
28:01
They tend to, they tend to try to extract the end, you know, the, the, the small, the pick up, they pick up the nickels.
28:07
And, um, it is, you know, they, they, they just are cool enough and, and calm enough to, um, you know, be the team that is, uh, executing at the highest level at the end of the games.
28:17
Like, when, when the fourth and five was incomplete to, to Kincaid, um, which again was an amazing play by Allen. I cannot believe he saw him, can't believe he got the ball in his area code.
28:27
I don't blame Kincaid for dropping it. I thought that was a 50/50 ball. Um, but, uh, you know, that, um, uh, that ball hits the ground and you're like, "Oh, yeah, the game's over."
28:36
Like, the chances that the Chiefs- Yeah... don't have the plays in the playbook- Yeah... to get the first downs they need to put this thing away with ne- with Neil Downs, I think is very low.
28:46
And, you know, like, if you have that, you know, that type of, um, if you have that type of bag in your game, then, uh, you know, it, it, it becomes, you know, you win these types of, of games.
28:56
And so I guess I, I would, I would look for... I would be happy to write Mahomes MVP tickets pre- pre-game if I was a bookmaker at plus 105. I think there is certainly a world where there's a fatigue vote.
29:09
If it's, you know, if, if there is a reason to, um, give it to someone else, I think they will. Um, but I also think that I will be watching the market live, seeing if there's an opportunity where the Eagles are...
29:21
'Cause, you know, there, there was times even in the third quarter against the Commanders where the Commander's defense was, like, clearly gassed, nothing left.
29:27
Um, and still it was like, well, Daniels is out here doing, he's making magic. Like, this might get sweaty. I can't believe that this might get sweaty.
29:35
And the Rams came back with, from, you know, when in that game looked like it was absolutely done, um, almost won. And so I don't know that I trust the Eagles in put this thing away mode defense-wise.
29:45
And so if there's a, uh, a two score lead here for the Eagles at any point, I'll definitely be playing some Mahomes MVP. Real quick, you said you're taking the Eagles on the money line. Fezzik was in here.
29:55
He's, he's a big proponent because of the, uh, post-season overtime rules that if you're taking the dog, you should take the points, and if you're taking the favorite, you should take the money line because of the likelihood of a one-point result in overtime.
30:07
Do you buy into that at all? It's a really, really, really good point. But- But... I- Okay. Yeah... if it gets to overtime
30:18
I, yeah, it's, it ki- it kinda feels like if that, if that is the game state we're in, um, I don't think it, I don't think the Eagles are winning, and I don't know that it's because they score a touchdown, get a extra point, and then give up a touchdown and a two.
30:32
Yeah. Um, it's because they just, you know, they, uh, they puddle themselves and, uh, and the Chiefs are cool, calm, and collected- [laughs]... and, and score a touchdown going away. He said, he said puddle themselves.
30:43
Puddle themselves. That's what he said. I hadn't heard that one before. [laughs] I like it. All right. Real quick, rapid fire. What do you have in the NBA tonight, sir? Uh, big night for fatigue angle.
30:51
Um, and actually big month for fatigue angle. The NBA has been weird this year, Gil. Um, I got absolutely crushed in December. Um, and I blame the NBA Cup for kind of completely- Mm...
31:03
um, you know, churning the schedule. Um, but the extra rest that was afforded all those teams in December has come back to haunt them as they have the compressed schedule here in January.
31:12
Um, and so the teams with the fatigue advantage have just been printing, uh, so far. It has been a delightful month betting the NBA. I would say that, uh, the, the obvious angles tonight are the Sixers.
31:23
That is down to two. I got in... Oh, no, it's, that's four. Uh, I think there's a decent chance a bunch of Lakers sit, and most notably, uh, Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
31:31
This could flip to Philly favorite, but either way I think Philly covers. Um, no Embiid, no Paul George, but Maxey and company have been playing competitive basketball lately.
31:40
So, uh, Philly stays inside the number in my opinion. I think Portland stays inside the number against Milwaukee. I think Golden State chooses their number against Utah. 12 is not enough.
31:50
Um, and then I have nothing for Houston, Atlanta. That one looks fun. All right. And then Australian Open postscript. Give it to us. Mm.
31:59
Uh, Madison Keys will be the number one takeaway from this entire tennis season after what happened at the Australian Open. I was...
32:07
I, I kind of had lost any kind of belief that at, in her age 30 season she was gonna really threaten to take a title at the, at a Slam.
32:16
Uh, I knew that a deep run was possible considering that she has, uh, a specific game at this level that is just extremely high ceiling.
32:25
The fact that she was able to reign that game in in the absolute key moments, particularly against, uh, you know, in, in the third set against Iga, uh, was unbelievable.
32:35
Um, I could not believe that she broke back instead of, you know, walking that out 7-5 and saying, "Well, I got to the semifinal. That's cool." Um, no.
32:43
She fought back and she, she was elite service in that tie break as well. Um, still can't believe it. And then her final performance against Sabalenka was just phenomenal.
32:53
She, like the tac- tactical aspects of it, the execution, it was all just 10 out of 10 amazing tennis.
33:00
And, uh, her return on championship point that ultimately won it was something that I will remember specifically from this Australian Open. It was so good. And it caught Sabalenka.
33:10
Like, she literally was like, "How, how did she do that?" And, and the point was over. The tournament was over. It was, it was, it was, uh, pretty special stuff. Sabalenka handled it well, didn't she? As always. Yeah.
33:21
Yeah. Well. Yeah. [laughs] As always. And then, and then Sasha- She's a, she's a competitor, man. Yeah. She, oh, she is. She is. She wears her, uh, feelings on her sleeve, that's for sure. Absolutely.
33:30
And then, uh, Sasha Zverev just with a, uh, absolutely horrible performance in the final. Drew, uh, always appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. All right. Best of luck, guys. Drew Dinsing, everybody, @whale_capper.
33:41
We'll come back, a little more MVP talk next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
VSiN, the sports betting network, now live 24/7 on SiriusXM channel 158. Have you heard? Whether you're at home, on the road, or on the go, now there's more ways than ever to tune into VSiN.
34:04
Stream us live on vsin.com, the VSiN Watch app, YouTube TV, iHeartRadio, Fire TV, Roku, and now SiriusXM channel 158. Look at that. No excuses anymore, people. Right. My buddies are like, "Uh, how do I listen to you?"
34:21
For, like, years I was like, "Uh, so, uh, we're on YouTube TV." They like look at me blank. [laughs] "Uh, we're on iHeartRadio." If you, if, if you happen to know what your local iHeart sports station is.
34:31
Yeah, that's right. Yeah. But now SiriusXM 158, they get it. They get it. Very good. Uh, before we get to the MVP talk again, can I ask you a couple NBA questions- Sure... sir? Because you are- Let's do it... you are Mr.
34:41
NBA. No, you're not, but you're, you're, you're close to being Mr. NBA. Um, Amen Thompson and the Rockets- Yep... who have this dramatic win against the Celtics last night.
34:51
[laughs] Amen Thompson- That was the one I left out of the first segment, by the way. It was on the Rockets too. Oh, yeah. Cashing five and a half, but you know what we say about overtime and underdogs. So- Yeah...
34:59
hitting the game-winning, uh, buzzer beater was big... a Euro step fade job to beat the Celtics. He's amazing. Both the Thompson brothers are. How do you pronounce the, Osar is the other one? Yeah. Osar? Yeah. Yeah.
35:10
Like, as soon as they- Osar Thompson plays for the Pistons. Yeah... soon as they dial in their jump shots, like, watch out because these guys are both athletic monsters and on the defensive side are, are just incredible.
35:21
Um, Amen dropped, uh, 33 last night. Dillon Brooks I think had 36 in the Rockets win. He was like 10 for 16 from three. Dillon Brooks. 10 for 15, I believe. Yeah, something like that. That's crazy, man.
35:31
Um, but, uh, and, but the question is, are the Rockets a legitimate contender to win, forget the NBA title for a second, let's just say the conference. Let's start there. Okay.
35:42
So- Legitimate meaning can they get to the conference title and have a puncher's chance? Yeah. Yes. They, they are. They, they are that good defensively. They are a very good, uh, defensive team.
35:52
Eme Udoka I still think is one of the better head coaches in the NBA. That was my next question. Yeah. Is he the coach of the year favorite to you? No. No, no, no.
36:00
I, the, the c- the coaching jobs done in Cleveland and Detroit I think would start there.
36:04
But Eme U- of, of Eme Udoka taking a team from that mediocrity level or pretty good to legit contender in the Western Conference like we're talking about is a very big deal, and I think last night that was on full display, especially with what that game meant to Eme and Boston.
36:21
If he was Eme Ubidlin and didn't have his past... off the court stuff, would he be your coach of the year? No, no. I w- would- Would voters be more likely to vote him coach of the year is what I guess I'm asking.
36:35
Um, I also th- I mean, I think their bigger jump would've come last year. I think he would, that would've been more applicable to- Okay... for the conversation a year ago.
36:42
I, what, what Kenny Atkinson's doing i- in Cleveland- Yeah... and bringing that Cavs team to a next level, they're, he's the favorite and for good reason this year. Especially because he was, like, coveted for so long.
36:51
No. But, like, I know where you're getting at. Yeah. Like, is Ime Udoka in the top third of coaches that I trust in this league? With, without a doubt, he's probably a top five coach from that perspective.
37:00
Here's my other question, and I think this goes along the lines of what we started with on the show, which is this gives us a chance to sort of catch up on things.
37:05
So there's a lot of people, because we're so football immersed, we sort of hear other things in other sports- Yeah... but we don't really get to the nitty-gritty of it. This Jimmy Butler stuff in Miami.
37:14
So Jimmy Butler has a history. His NBA career is
37:18
just ab- as great as he is, playoff Jimmy of course being the most famous thing about Jimmy Butler, um, taking two teams, I believe, to the NBA championship if I'm not mistaken. Mm-hmm.
37:29
Um, it also has been marred, if I can use that word, by quick exits, quick adversarial exits from the teams he's played for, beginning with the Chicago Bulls, who he started his career with.
37:40
Uh, then he played, like, just over a season with the Minnesota Timberwolves. He played, what, 50-some games with the Philadelphia 76ers. They were good 50-some games.
37:52
Uh, but the, you know, the Sixers broke up my favorite Sixers iteration of all, right? That team that had the shooters. Covington was traded for him, Dario Saric, all these guys.
38:01
So he g- so he plays very little in Philly. That was the, uh, the Raptors team that ended up winning the title that beat them in the playoffs. And then he goes and he plays in Miami.
38:08
Now, this is the perfect marriage, right? Uh, Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat way, if you will. Perfect brand, uh, symmetry right there. Or not symmetry, but just sort of it coalesces beautifully.
38:19
And now he is, he's desperate to get out of Miami.
38:22
He's been suspended not once, not twice, but now three times, the latest for just walking out of practice yesterday when he found out, or the day before, when he found out he wasn't gonna start. Mm-hmm.
38:33
Why, why did he become so sour, and where does he end up? Yeah, I think you're dealing with... I, I think the, the biggest part of this story is that you're dealing with two massive, massive egos with him and Pat Riley.
38:46
I, I, whe- whenever we talked about Jimmy Butler, he's an incredible player.
38:50
What he does effort-wise on the court, off the court, whe- the way you hear teammates speak about him, he's always been a respected guy from the teammate side of things. But he's just known to lash out.
38:59
He's a guy that is- Everywhere he's been... everywhere he's been, he's gonna have cr- uh, he's gonna have critici- uh, critiques along the way. He's going to be vocal about them.
39:08
Um, and what we've seen, a- a- I feel like part of the blowback that I've heard as an NBA guy, uh, the anti-NBA stance for so many years now has been these stars get whatever they want, and it's ridiculous. And he will.
39:22
And Pat Riley has been sitting up there for months now in the front office saying, "I am not giving Jimmy Butler whatever he wants unless we're going to get fair return on the value o- of him as a player."
39:33
And right now, the NBA landscape, there is not really fair value for the return on Jimmy Butler, in my opinion.
39:40
I think there's also, the, uh, this is how I jokingly talk about the Jimmy Butler situation, it's, it's also from the other teams' perspectives out there that might be interested.
39:48
Of course, they know all this stuff about him. Well, they, they, okay. Yeah. All the past. Yeah. It's all the past. Yeah. And then it's, "Hey, Gil, I got a 35-year-old wing player that can't shoot a three.
39:58
Are you interested?" Like, it's- Yeah, but then there's the, then there's playoff Jimmy. Then there's playoff Jimmy.
40:03
So you have to sell a team on playoff Jimmy, and right now it just looks like the Bulls, Suns, and, and Heat might all just trade each other their disgruntled players, and none of them are gonna make a difference.
40:11
Bulls, Suns, and Heat. Well, the thing is, is he wants out, he will get out. He will, he will succeed in that way. So- He's going to get traded. The Heat are actively trying to trade him.
40:20
Now, will he end up in Phoenix where his, where his, where he really wants to go? The answer to that might be no, because the Suns' contracts with these players are terrible. Awful, yep.
40:29
They're the worst contracts in the league. So Pat Riley may s- make his stand on that at least. And Bra- and Bradley Beal's gonna be the guy who holds a lot of this stuff up, 'cause he has the no trade clause.
40:38
Phoenix wants to get rid of him, but he has a no trade clause, so he gets to pick basically where he goes. Where do you think Butler ends up?
40:45
And does it ma- and, and if, and is there an answer to this question where it moves the needle on, on championships?
40:51
Man, he, he wants Phoenix so bad, so I think Phoenix, and, and considering Phoenix wants to get rid of Beal, I think that l- in all likelihood it does, he does end up there.
41:01
But, like, okay, we got this second apron stuff going on with the NBA, uh, uh, salary cap. Now, that is a big deal too, Gil, because literally these teams are just restricted more on how to make these trades.
41:12
So I, I think there's, I think I, I am not completely sold that Jimmy Butler will be gone. Because I think Pat Riley is petty enough too that he will say- [laughs]... "I'm gonna keep suspending you- Ah, yeah...
41:22
until you show up and be a real basketball player." They're both children. And, but you- They're bo- they're both children, and it's, and guess what?
41:28
Erik Spoelstra, the best coach in the NBA, is getting caught right in the middle of this- Right...
41:31
and having to walk the company line, and I don't really think that's fair, and I think it's starting to look really bad for the Miami Heat, the Miami Heat culture that we've talked about for so long. Yeah.
41:42
And it's impossible for these players not to be distracted whe- whe- uh, when you're on the Heat.
41:46
Well- I think if you're Pat Riley, you need to get Jimmy But- get rid of him, because you need to start refocusing on realizing what your- Of course you do...
41:53
what your team really- You have to get rid of him, 'cause player, the, ep- he's, he's created a situation where you can't keep him. Yeah. And the truest thing you said, Kelly, was this is why people hate the NBA.
42:01
And, and you gotta re- It's why, that's exactly why... I mean, you gotta rebuild at some point, though.
42:04
You still have good pieces, like, wi- with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, but Pat Riley's too stubborn to realize that you are a rebuilding team. Is he gonna end up somewhere that's gonna make a difference in the playoffs?
42:13
That's the only thing that matters here. And we'll find out. We'll all find out together. If you can get ahead of that, great, but I don't know that we can. Well- I would like to see him on Memphis...
42:20
by the way, we, oh, Memphis? I think that would be interesting.
42:22
By the way, Br- we brought this up with Drew, NFL Super Bowl, not NFL, but Super Bowl LIX MVP, where Patrick Mahomes is going for his third in a row, an unprecedented third in a row. He's the short shot.
42:32
Saquon is the short shot for the Philadelphia Eagles at plus 250. There you see it on the screen. Mahomes plus 105, Saquon plus 250.
42:39
Then it's Hurts, who probably would've been the Super Bowl MVP two years ago had the Eagles pulled that out against the Chiefs. He's three to one.
42:45
And then everybody else is 20 to one or longer, beginning with Travis Kelce. Is there a bet here for you? I th- I think Drew broke it down very well.
42:55
I, I hadn't really thought about the Mahomes voter fatigue factor, 'cause I was actually surprised- I don't, I don't think that's a thing...
43:02
Okay, so I think you- I don't- I think if you like the Chiefs and you think like Gildon, Patrick Mahomes is the obvious correlated, uh, bet in this market.
43:08
Well, I, I always ask it this way: What would hap- I know some people, I think P- Feliga came on and said Jalen Carter 70 to 1.
43:14
Again, there's only four defensive players that have won the MVP since the turn of the century. It really has to go a specific way for that to happen.
43:22
And we've seen, again, Mahomes win the MVP when he n- didn't necessarily deserve it, right? Yeah. Um, or, or wasn't the most deserving candidate, let's put it that way. I shouldn't say it that, the pr- the former way.
43:33
W- what is the, who, give me the scenario what's the most likely. It's that, it's that Matt Brown, Travis Kelce thing from the divisional round, right?
43:39
Where Mahomes threw for 177 yards and a touchdown, Kelce got 117 of those and the touchdown. Mm-hmm. Would Kelce get the MVP in that scenario?
43:50
And if the answer to that is, is, you know, am- you know, you're still equivocating on that, and you don't really know if Kelce would get the MVP even in that scenario, then you have to bet Mahomes if you're backing the Chiefs.
44:01
The, the Drew point is the better one, though, with the fact that Saquon's giving you much more bang for your buck.
44:07
It's a better market to bet the Eagles by proxy than it is the Eagles as a r- than it is the Chiefs as a result of that. Yeah, I thought, I thought he had a great point on that. Yeah.
44:15
Of just what, what are the chances the Eagles win this game, right? And B- Barkley doesn't have a big game. Yeah. Uh, it's pretty slim. Um,
44:24
I think it's a pretty straightforward market, no matter how you try to finagle it in your head otherwise. Will Hill, All His Bets, Super Bowl LIX and Beyond, next.
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