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Jan 14, 2025
A Numbers Game | Hour 2 | January 14, 2025
A Numbers Game | Hour 2 | January 14, 2025
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin alongside.
0:19
Just working on that Mike Somich posture every day. [laughs] Live from Circa Sports Book, uh, Circa Resort and Casino here in downtown Las Vegas. Can I tell you something?
0:28
Somich, Mike Somich, Ready, Set, Bet co-host, along with our buddy Matt Brown. Mike Somich was here in studio yesterday. His posture was so good that I became self-conscious.
0:40
You think, you think you could- Self-conscious, by the way... you think I could do that, uh, balance a book on the head throughout the entire show? Absolutely not. Me either. You'll last- Me either.
0:47
I, I'm gonna go- I don't know if I can make it through a segment... I'm gonna go eight and a half seconds. [laughs] Eight and a half seconds. Uh, we get tweets @BeatTheBook.
0:55
By the way, Will Hill and Paul Carr standing by. Hoops by Hoots, "I think one factor," talking about the college football thing I was talking about earlier, "is when the games were."
1:02
He says, "The college football semis last year were on New Year's Day. The Notre Dame Penn State game with two Eastern Time Zone teams on a Thursday night at 8:00 PM plays into it." Could be.
1:12
Jason H11 chimes in, "I'm going to my nearest Build-A-Bear Workshop and I'm gonna build a Kelly square bear." Ooh, okay.
1:18
Three Jack, H3131, "Gil, if the Rams are the team," I don't disagree, he says, "who would, who would be the MVP in the Super Bowl? Nacua down to 150 to 1 at DraftKings. Stafford, or some coin at 30 to 1."
1:32
This is always a great topic and we're gonna, we're gonna talk a- about it extensively tomorrow. Yeah. Super Bowl MVP, because it is a great market by proxy.
1:41
For instance, what Drew was talking about before, you may be like, "Come on, C.J. Stroud, Super Bowl MVP 150 to 1, what is he talking about?" That's longer than the Texans are to win the Super Bowl.
1:52
And more often than not, a quarterback wins. And more often than not- Yes... you have to think about not only will a quarterback win it, but does he have any other players around him that, that could possibly win it?
2:00
I- in the case of the Texans, y- you'd have to really try to come up with someone else.
2:05
By the way, that would be the knock against the Lamar Jackson one, too, because you could see Derrick Henry winning a Super Bowl MVP, right? Yeah.
2:12
So it's, so it goes a little, it, it, you have to really make that calculus, but it is oftentimes a great market by proxy, rather than betting the Super Bowl itself.
2:19
We, we have gotten to the point, though, Gil, where it is absolutely fair to mention Puka Nacua. Are you kidding me? Like, this guy is- He is a spectacular football player.
2:28
I mean, where are we at with Puka Nacua in f- uh, wide receiver rankings in the NFL right now? Well, this is why I, I said, this is why I went crazy on, on McVay and Kupp and Stafford last year. Mm.
2:39
People were laughing at me 'cause I'm like, "These guys are getting together every morning in their little cul-de-sac, thinking about how they can not throw the ball to Puka Nacua." I'm like, "What are you doing?"
2:47
I mean, you were all over it so early. But, like, seriously, I mean, he's, he is what? Top 20 for sure. Oh, for sure. He's also, like, he does so much else, though, right?
2:55
Like, that's why, like, you go into Philly, what kind of wide receiver do you want playing in Phil- Puka Nacua. Yes, yes. You think he's gonna back down from those guys? He's a great blocker.
3:02
You can have him running the football. He's just a great football player. To answer your question, uh, specifically, yeah, if you think the Rams are getting there, I think he's alive.
3:11
I think s- that, that's the thing with Stafford. He's got other players that could take it from him.
3:15
Auburnist, "I'm gonna say the main difference between the TV ratings of the NCAA Semis is that it was on New Year's Day," another vote for that, "last year for the Rose Bowl when nothing else was on.
3:22
This year it kind of got lost with the casual fans." That's probably true. Uh, Will Hill joins us, ladies and gentlemen. Uh, it looks like he's going golfing. Not sure if he is.
3:29
He's @NotTheWillHill on Twitter, and of course, he's, uh, part of the Chris Fallica empire at Fox Sports, the Bear Bets podcast, not to mention the star of the Megapod.
3:39
And oh, by the way, he hosts his own podcast called Shoulda Bet More. It's Wilson Hillson, everybody. How you doing, Will? Uh, I'm okay. That was a, that was a rough one last night.
3:49
By, by the way, Kelly, I want you to clip out that, uh, that piece of Gil saying Mike Somich was very erect yesterday. I want you to post that on the VSiN website. [laughs] Did I say that?
3:57
Kinda near his- I don't think I said that... som- stunning posture. We're p- we're paraphrasing. I don't think I said that. Um- Promo for the show. That's what it sounds like.
4:05
[laughs] It's like, "Cut out that thing of Gil saying that," but he didn't say that. Um, okay, let's start there. I sh- I probably buried the headline. You are a lifelong Minnesota Vikings fan. Ugh.
4:14
I mean, this was it, right? 14 and three, and then poof. This was your worst nightmare. Yeah, sports are cruel.
4:22
And I, look, your, your guard is always up as a Viking fan just because of, of their past, and you come into the season with a six and a half win total.
4:28
So it was a great ride, but to be five and O, have a five-game winning streak and a nine-game winning streak, and just, what, eight, nine days ago they're 14 and two with a chance to be the one seed.
4:37
And once they lost to Detroit, I, I kinda had a feeling, hey, it's all or nothing. If they beat Detroit and they had their, th- the path to the Super Bowl go through their building, I think they would've had a good shot.
4:46
But with, with the way their offensive line and Darnold had played, maybe it was just never happening.
4:50
But the, the turnaround of not getting the one and having to play right away against a good Ram team, a good quarterback, a good coach, uh, I'd kinda seen this coming. Uh, still, I mean, it still hurts.
5:00
It's just, again, there, there's a cruel nature of sports where you go 14 and two, 14 and three. 14 wins in the NFL, I mean, there's just not that many- Incredible... teams that do that. Yeah.
5:08
And then you don't play another game for nine months, and when you play again in nine months, you're zero and zero and you gotta start from the bottom just like everybody else.
5:16
It is, uh, man, it, it's hard to win a championship. That's why, you know, look, we're, we're betters, but we're all fans at some point. W- mo- you know, most of us are fans of a, a, a team as well as betters.
5:25
It, uh, you gotta enjoy it when you win because you just, man, you don't get those opportunities very often and they're, uh, you know, they're just hard to come by. It sucks.
5:32
What, what hurt more, 14 and three, adult Will Hill with the 14 and three Vikings of this year, or much younger Will Hill with the 15 and one Vikings of the late '90s?
5:43
Oh, mu- much more 15 and one, because they were up seven kicking a chip shot field goal with a guy who hadn't missed all year to go up 10 to go to the Super Bowl.
5:49
[laughs] And then they took a knee with 56 seconds left with the best offensive. That was, that's an all-timer. If you ever watch the last, like, couple minutes of that game, that is just, man, you- Not that you re-...
5:57
scratch your head how they lost that game... not that you remember the details or anything. Right, yeah. Um- Squeezy gotten over it... uh, and then last thing on this. Darnold is, is gone now, right?
6:08
Yeah, I mean, there's some teams in the CFL that need a quarterback. The Roughriders I think could use an upgrade at that position. Uh, now like, I don't know, Steelers make some sense, Raiders make some sense.
6:16
We were talking a couple weeks ago, and this became a, like a fun sports radio topic of like, hey, do you, what do you do with Darnold?
6:22
I think that question's a little bit easier for Minnesota because you have a quarterback you drafted, uh, on a rookie deal. You picked him 10th overall. You're not gonna pay Darnold all this money.
6:32
Uh, you're gonna trust the GM to spend the cap space.
6:34
You're gonna trust the coach to coach up the young quarterback, and you're gonna try to just build a team around him and, and have plenty of, uh, resources, assets to just de- devote elsewhere on the team, offensive line, get the defense better.
6:47
Uh, I'm sure if you're Minnesota, you hope you can keep Flores and just kinda run it back. I mean, overall it's still a good year. [laughs] You went 14, you won 14 games.
6:53
It's hard to be, man, it was, it was a bad year or something. It's just, uh, certainly a disappointing ending. Football or the NFL specifically, right? It, it's cruel because it's one and done.
7:02
It's not like you're playing best of sevens, and so that's, that's the nature of the beast. Uh, what have you bet so far divisional round?
7:09
Uh, just teasers like everybody else, which is kind of, you know, boring to talk about just because some of them are straightforward. Hey, I see the Chiefs by seven and a half. You know what? You know what I'm gonna do?
7:16
I'm gonna throw the Chiefs in a teaser, and I see the Ravens getting one and a half. I'm gonna throw them in a teaser, and I see that one as flip. Just as far as sides, I still like the Ravens minus the one and a half.
7:25
I just think they're the better team. I think they're better than Buffalo by the margin of home field advantage. Uh, I just think Buffalo's too small on the defensive line. I, I remember the game in week four.
7:34
I know it was early in the season. I know it was in Baltimore, but I just think Baltimore can bully, uh, Buffalo, and I, I think Baltimore's gonna win the game. It does worry me, a couple things.
7:44
Lamar in the cold, I don't love that. He's made comments like, "Hey, I, I don't really like playing in the cold."
7:49
And this is, this was something, a- again, we talked about a lot that's quieted down because they played in so many blowouts and they haven't had to kick pressure field goals.
7:57
Tucker, if I'm down, you know, if the, the Ravens are down one or two with 38 seconds left and he's gotta kick a 47-yarder on the road, weather, I don't know that he's sinking that field goal, so that's something that was an issue week in, week out, missing kicks, missing multiple kicks.
8:11
That's died down. I don't know that that's completely gone away and that's completely, you know, you're in a position where you completely trust Tucker, but I do like Baltimore. I think they're the better team.
8:19
And look, the Rams are live here with a, a quarterback, a pass rush, a coach.
8:24
That is gonna be a tough spot going into Philly, but just big picture, I do think, you know, it seems like we've been on a collision course for Detroit-Philly NFC title game all year.
8:34
If you get a final four of Detroit-Philly and then the Chiefs versus either the Bills or the Ravens, man, that is a hell of a final four. That is a, that is a hell of a final four for sure.
8:44
Um, and I'm with you on the, the other thing you, you s- you said about the Bills, speaking of going back in history.
8:48
The Bills teams with Jim Kelly that lost all those Super Bowls, though the primary reason they lost those Super Bowls to Washington, Dallas, and the Giants was because they were smaller. That was it.
8:59
They got bullied by those teams. And so this feels, uh, in the same way, what you were just, what you were just mentioning with this Ravens team.
9:06
It's a little bit of a, of a blink thing, um, where you, you sort of remember that and you're like, "Okay, maybe this is the same fate."
9:12
But of course now this Bills team has Josh Allen, who can now put the, put his team on his back and do anything on a football field. I'm, I'm with you. I just think the Ravens are a better football team all around.
9:22
Well, you guys haven't seen Josh Allen line up at linebacker yet, okay? That's gonna change things. Um, a special numbers game investigation, Will, reveals that the college football national championship is next Monday.
9:33
This coming Monday, uh, they are playing a game. It is Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes are favored by eight. Um, let me ask a couple questions. Ke- 'cause Kelly actually asked me this before the show.
9:44
Am I allowed to reveal what you asked me for that? Sure, yeah. Yeah, yeah. I don't care. Uh, i- it's c- it's common... It's, it's the sort of sports betting 101. Hey, you don't tease college football games.
9:55
Would you not tease Ohio State here down to two and maybe tease the total down? What would you do here? No, I wouldn't, I wouldn't tease the total, but I have no problem teasing Ohio State.
10:03
It's almost like, uh, and I, I said this about Penn State and Notre Dame, too. When these lines, they're standalone games, the lines are sharper. That makes the teaser more effective.
10:11
And again, it's not a great habit in college where there's upsets and there's variance, but I mean, you, you, you're talking about numbers here where eight to two, there's just so much value there.
10:19
Now, I know people could say, and it's a good point, that a national title game, you're gonna get a lot of recreational money and people looking to bet a little to win a lot, and that's gonna depress the money line on Ohio State.
10:29
So Fezz will tweet us in and text us in, say, "Don't be a dumbo and tease Ohio State. Just find a cheap money line." [laughs] Yeah.
10:35
I get that, but just, hey, if you told me I tease Ohio State, I'm not gonna say, "Hey, that's a terrible bet." I do think Ohio State wins. Uh, I just think it'll be hard for Notre Dame to score. Love is banged up.
10:44
Ohio State's really good against the run. Maybe the 10 days off helps, uh, Notre Dame here, but, um, probably my favorite bet, Notre Dame team total under 17 and a half.
10:53
Them getting three touchdowns or them getting two touchdowns and two field goals seems like a stretch. Uh, I, I think Ohio State is, uh, i- is holding up the trophy here. It's been kind of a... I don't know.
11:03
There's no r- th- there's no rhya- uh, rhythm to these playoffs. It's like you get two weeks off, then 10 days off, then a game's on a Thursday, then a Monday. Yeah. Maybe it's 'cause it's the first week of the...
11:12
or, or the first year of the 12-team playoff. I don't know. I just feel like there hasn't been a great rhythm, a great rhythm to the schedule. Mar- Feel the rhythm. Feel the rhyme. It's popside time. Oh my God.
11:20
Another John Kennedy movie. Oh my God, what just happened? Uh, Marcus Freeman. The Bears have asked to talk to Marcus Freeman, no matter the result of this game. Have the Bears called you, Will?
11:28
'Cause they're seemingly calling every human on earth for an interview. Them and the Jets. The Jets, I don't think there's anybody the Jets haven't interviewed. My goodness.
11:34
I don't feel like there's a plan when they do that. Well, you had to have coached before in the NFL to interview with the Jets, so. So there's that. Yeah. Will, talk to you tomorrow for the mega-pod, sir. All right.
11:45
See you guys. Thanks for having me. Will Hill, everybody, @notthe, with two Es, @notthewillhill. NBA awards n- A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN fans, you're in luck.
12:02
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12:18
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12:30
I'm gonna Ron Burgundy through some of these, Kelly, if you don't mind. Stand by. [laughs] Hope you have a neck. Like I have any controls over here. I like this.
12:37
That used to work when I was kind of back in the control room. [laughs] That's all for Brendan now. Stand by. Stand by. Stand by with a button.
12:42
[laughs] Ryan- Actually, you can at least read them though [laughs] Ryan Hyatt, "Question for Gil, Kelly and crew.
12:47
Given we had so many bad NFL teams, at least record-wise this year, should we have been surprised to see so many non-competitive wild card games? Is this year a, is this year a blip or an emerging gap in the league?
12:57
What can we learn from, uh-" It's a great question... from this year and how can we apply what we've seen into next? Thanks. I'll hang up and listen." Thank you, Ryan Hyatt.
13:04
Shadow producer of, uh, Primetime Action back in the day, Ryan Hyatt. Um, I think it's great 'cause I, I used to say about baseball all the time, right?
13:11
The, the ever increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots, right? Mm-hmm. Said that many, many times, and we said it about football this year. If you look at, if you look at the NBA...
13:21
Actually, excuse me, the NFL Draft, right? Um, and you look at the records of these teams, the top, the top, let me get this right, the top 10 picks in the NFL draft are teams that were 3 and 14, 4 and 13 or 5 and 12.
13:38
So if you finish 6 and 11, like the poor San Francisco 49ers- [laughs]... you're picking 11th. It's, it's [laughs] incredible. It's incredible. That's how many horrible teams there are. 5 and 12 picks 10th.
13:50
The Chicago Bears get the booby prize. You finished 5 and 12 and you're picking 10th. So, um, i- you're right.
13:58
This was, Ryan, this was that year in the NFL where it is a, a wide gap because then we, on the other side, you're right, we had a couple fif- you know, what, we had 15 and 2s with Kansas City and Detroit, and Kansas City punted on one of those games.
14:10
Um, and then Philadelphia was 14 and 3, Buffalo 13 and 4. For goodness sake, the two Beltway teams were 12 and 5, Baltimore and Washington.
14:16
So I think his question regarding these teams that lost in the wild card round is, is a great one because my instant reaction to that is, 'cause I think I've done this before in the past few years, be careful, specifically with one team, [laughs] be careful of seeing what we, what we saw play out in the wild card round with some of these teams that lost, and I will bring the Vikings into what we said yesterday, right?
14:37
Where these teams had great regular seasons when we talk the Vikings and we talk the Steelers and the Chargers and the Broncos, but how did we all feel about them at the beginning of the season, and did that kind of play out in the wild card round?
14:50
Well, where it applies- Yeah, it did... where it applies to me is that teams like the Chargers get elevated by s- by feasting on all of those bad teams, right? Sure.
14:59
So people think the Chargers are better than they are- So this, but this is where it's-... as a result of that... this is where I'm going.
15:04
Do you know how many times I've made the same mistake though with the Pittsburgh Steelers year after year where I go to load up on the under on the win total then for the next year?
15:12
Yeah, but that, uh, y- it doesn't mean you're wrong. It doesn't mean you're wrong. They, they just, they, they figured out how to win two more games than they should've. You know, like- Yeah.
15:20
Okay, you are right, doesn't mean I'm wrong. Yeah. But I'm done with it. [laughs] I am done with Mike Tomlin and the magic beans of the regular season. I'm done.
15:26
And NCI 95 Gambler, "If people think the Rams will win the Super Bowl, then why not mechanical parlay the Rams to win each round of the playoffs?
15:32
You know there'll be dogs each round, and I'm also certain the payout will be more than anything you can get on a Super Bowl MVP future." Well, not if it's a long shot, right?
15:39
Not if it's, like, Puka or someone like that. But you're right. Generally speaking, that's a, that's a good strategy.
15:44
The Better Life, Tim Lawson, "Ready for another Paul Carr segment" So he'll, he'll ask a question of Paul Carr coming up.
15:50
Jody Vandy Pilot, "In the first meeting, the Bills were without Tyrell Bernard, Matt Milano, and Taron Johnson. Then Taylor Rapp left the game early with an injury.
15:57
Bills will be much healthier on defense this time around." Talking about the first meeting with the Ravens. Oh, that is very true. Mm-hmm.
16:03
I heard some very, very concerning stats though the other day, and Adam Schefter was one of the ones who brought them up about how Milano coming back, how bad he's been.
16:11
Like, I think he's just pl- he's been playing hurt the entire time since he's come back. Michael Burns, "I teased Ohio State with a few of these NFL teams, two and three teamers." Working out for him.
16:20
Um, by the way, l- the, the, I just want to mention this. Somebody, I won't name any names, you know how y- do you ever get these n- these sports betting intel texts from people who are like- Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Okay.
16:31
I have always said that when I get supposed intel that is not baked into the market, I always say, I go, "I am lifetime one in five bajillion betting into what is supposedly intel," right?
16:44
Last night I got a text, "Oh, Matthew Stafford's ribs are broken. Four broken ribs," whatever else, right? I already- [laughs] Somebody said this three times in his career...
16:53
I already had, I already had bets on the Rams. So I'm like, "I'm not betting. Nope. I'm one in five bajillion on this kind of stuff. I'm staying as far away from that as possible."
17:01
And sure enough, I bet they shot him up. Maybe he does have broken ribs, but they shot him up. It was no problem whatsoever. Very first pass I'm like, "You know, it's no problem."
17:07
So I- It was like your C- Cody Bellinger thing on Primetime Action where you're like- [laughs]... "Shoulder's fine." He's, he's fine. [laughs] Yeah.
17:13
The way I always take these, 'cause I've got, I've got probably two guys that are close to some NBA teams, but here's the problem, Gil. Hey, I'm sure you think the same.
17:21
As soon as they whiff on one, one time is all it takes for me to be like, "Well, I can't, like, really trust then what your information all the time," even if they're right 99% of the time.
17:32
I'm just saying it's a gambling truism. All the topics we covered on this show over the years, the, the text intel that's not baked into the market like, "Oh, so and so is sick.
17:42
The whole team, the whole offensive line is sick," or, or they, they arrived late on the plane, right? All that stuff, it r- for me anyway, I can just speak for myself, it rarely works out. Yeah. Rarely. Yeah.
17:52
Um, let's go to the NBA. Um, there is something called the NBA Clutch Player of the Year Award. Was this widely available? No, it just started, uh, like two years ago.
18:01
No, but I'm saying in sports books, is it widely available? Oh, uh, g- no, it is not at every sports book- Okay... I will tell you that. It's a great question, actually.
18:07
So I actually had to look up what their definition is. The NBA Clutch Player of the Year is an award given to an NBA player who, quote, "Best comes through for his teammates [laughs] in the clutch," unquote. Yes.
18:17
Oh, that's very, uh, [laughs] that's very detailed. In the regular season. The winner receives the Jerry West Trophy, the trophy named after Jerry West, who had a reputation of being a clutch player.
18:25
That doesn't really define anything, quite frankly. Well- Darren Fox won the inaugural award last year. So it does... Now, you had two years, right? Didn't Steph Curry, uh-
18:35
Uh, well, according to what I'm reading, it was De'Aaron Fox who won it last year. But you're right, they're wrong. St- uh, De'Aaron Fox won it two years ago.
18:42
Yes, it's been s- Stephen Curry- This is the third year of the award. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Curry won it last year. So now- Yes... why, why, why I'm laughing would be like whatever that means with clutch, right? Yeah.
18:49
So the NBA, with their own proprietary stats and everything, has come up with this whole clutch time minutes, right?
18:56
Clutch time minutes, at the end of the game, you're within, what is it, within five or three minutes left, or something like that, okay? I'd have to look it up again. I don't remember exactly what it is.
19:04
But basically means- Where is that available? Basically means a tight game. At nba.com- Okay... there's all the, like, clutch time stats, okay?
19:10
So when this award first started, I think a lot of us that bet the NBA were like, like your reaction was, "What the heck does that mean?" Right? Mm. "And how is it going to be awarded?"
19:19
I did not get involved at all the first couple years. Last season, it became pretty obvious with Steph Curry, uh, Steph Curry down, uh, down line, and then, um, God, DeRozen when he was on the Bulls.
19:33
It was, okay, you- we kinda knew almost at this point it was likely gonna be one of those two to win it because they found themselves, their team, so often in these clutch situations.
19:45
So you, over the past couple years, you've kinda been able to start to figure out some trends in this, in this market, right? Who's gonna win this type of award?
19:53
Well, it's gotta be a team, and a p- a player, star player on a team, right, that's gonna find themselves in the clutch games often. Which means what, Gil?
20:03
You don't really want a team that's blowing teams out every night.
20:06
You, and you don't want a team that's getting blown out every night, or else you're never gonna rack up a many, uh, uh, enough clutch time minutes to possibly qualify to really win this award.
20:17
So you start there n- narrowing it down. And then you can start looking at the NBA- This, this-... clutch time stats. This sounds awful, by the way.
20:25
[laughs] Well, it sounds awful, but based off the NBA definition you just read, right? Yeah. They w- they are just pushing you to use the nba.com clutch time stats, okay? Okay.
20:35
So this is, it, it becomes kind of, in my opinion, handicapping-wise, kind of elementary. Yeah, here, here it is, nba.com, players clutch traditional. Yes. There you go. Uh-huh.
20:44
So now you've got that pulled up, so we're gonna go through a couple players here, and Brent, I don't know if you have the award clu- there we go, clutch time. So Nikola Jokic right now plus 110.
20:53
Okay, makes a lot of sense. You've got, they- their team has been in a lot of battles. 10 and seven is, are the Nuggets in clutch game, in clutch time games, okay? And he is averaging 4.6 points per game.
21:05
Do you see the name number three on that list? 'Cause that is a bet that myself and JVT made this weekend. Shout out to JVT and the Hardwood Handicappers group chat. Uh, we were talking about this one.
21:15
Tyrese Maxey on a 76ers team is averaging 5.2 points in the clutch. He's playing 4.2 minutes on a team that is eight and five in the clutch. So the 76ers are finding themselves in this situation often.
21:29
And despite what we thought about the 76ers at the beginning of the season, they are not a team that's going to be blowing out teams the rest of the way. I think we know who the 76ers are this year.
21:40
And right around that 500, you know, like, that average to above average team that's going to find themselves in plenty of these situations, Maxey has become that guy that, that, that theirs go to, and he is third in points per game.
21:53
And that is, the only two above him are Co- are Torrey Craig, who barely qualifies, he's got one game played in the clutch, and Paolo Banchero, who has four. So Maxey has a, he has a pretty sizable lead over Jokic.
22:05
I think at 14 to one he's a good bet. JVT and I bet him 25 to one over the weekend. The only other one I'll throw out there is Trae Young. I bet him around current number.
22:14
Same type of thing, Trae Young on a Hawks team that's gonna find themselves in these situations often. He's already hit a couple threes this year that people are gonna remember for game time winners.
22:24
So chuckle away, Gil, I'm just picking off numbers right now.
22:27
Here's why I'm laughing, because you just, it's gonna drive you crazy if Sam Darnold wins Comeback Player of the Year 'cause the voters will not have followed the guidelines.
22:35
What if the Clutch Player of the Year ends up being, ha- ends up having nothing to do with these stats on nba.com? The one that would drive me nuts is De'Aaron Fox winning it, so.
22:43
[laughs] I'm kinda r- if I, if you weren't my friend, I'd be rooting for it. [laughs] Paul Carr, Premier League, next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
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22:58
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23:07
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23:20
He's, uh, he's a, uh, sure- Well, I already promised him. [laughs] Well, you promised him in person. Yeah, Friday night. Yeah.
23:25
Might've had a couple of cocktails in me, but, uh, Todd and I were having a great conversation.
23:29
[laughs] By the way, on the break, uh, both Kelly and I independently got texts that a, and this is amazing, ladies and gentlemen, uh, apparently I haven't paid a toll and Kelly hasn't paid a toll, and so we're gonna go ahead and click on these links and just give 'em our social security numbers.
23:43
It's probably Brian Musburger. I mean, that's probably what it is. [laughs] That's right. It's, it's really just probably that.
23:48
Yeah, I don't know if you'd like me or hate me, but on Friday night I was, uh, Mike Somich was cracking up how I was just kind of producer ninja-ing across the room, like, it, like running into conversation, being like, "Hey, we gotta get you on the show soon."
24:00
[laughs] Oh, no. [laughs] And now random guy from a craps table. Yeah, Gil will either be thrilled or, uh- Yeah... not happy I haven't really told him boo. That's all right. Uh, I'm thrilled that Paul Carr is here.
24:11
Ladies and gentlemen, he's a Miami Dolphins fan.
24:12
He just reminded me that, uh, after the Skins, uh, won their first playoff game in 19 years, that the Dolphins are officially on the clock, I think, uh, almost a quarter century now without having won a playoff game.
24:23
Uh, but you know him from the Expected Value podcast, also, uh, True Media Networks is where he works. And I never give this the proper juice, but Kelly was just mentioning it off air.
24:31
The Ringer Gambling Podcast Soccer Style, it's our own Paul Carr, everybody. How you doing, Paul? Courtesy the Progressive Gas Line. I'm well, Gil. Yeah.
24:39
If you want the, this is kind of the cliff notes version of that pod.
24:42
If you want the longer form We get in the weeds of mostly Premier League, but also top leagues in Europe and US team and stuff, and New York Gambling Show is the place to find it But Kelly, what was your endorsement?
24:52
It was good stuff. What was your endorsement? I, but... Well, we always talk about, like, the tennis hardos, the NBA hardos, and I get, like, some of my...
24:59
You want to, if you want hardo soccer conversation- That's the one... that was the pod. Yeah.
25:03
'Cause it was immediately into Everton manager issues, and I was like, "Well, Gil and I have been talking about this for months, but you know." [laughs] Um- I don't have to tell you guys. Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
25:13
It was great stuff, Paul. I love it. I love it. Kelly, we walk out of here, it's like Everton just comes out of our mouth. [laughs] First thing we start talking about.
25:19
Um, this gives us a good opportunity though, Paul, because it is the midway point, if you will, the Premier League season. Mm-hmm. And so there's a whole bunch of things we can talk about. Let's just start at the top.
25:29
Um, we'll talk about the- the team that's gonna win this, and then the top four. Take it away. What are, what are your thoughts on this? Yeah. I mean, the story of the season is Man City's collapse.
25:38
You know, they were the betting favorite to win the title again, and they're now 12 points behind in sixth place, and deservedly so. A lot of injuries, lack of depth, haven't played very well.
25:49
Uh, so the title race is, it's not over, but it's almost over. Liverpool's at minus 400. They're up six points with a game in hand.
25:57
The only way I see any of those teams catching them is if Liverpool has a major injury or two. They are a little thin in midfield, so there's some possibilities there.
26:05
Uh, but Arsenal's the next threat, and they're dealing with injuries of their own. Bukayo Saka, their best and almost only attacker, is out until March with a hamstring injury.
26:13
So, uh, I don't know that they can make a jump and catch Liverpool. Though it seems like it's- it's definitely Liverpool's to lose at this point. But what about top four for Champions League? What is it looking like?
26:22
Liverpool, Arsenal, virtual locks. Uh, Chelsea, Man City are your next betting favorites. I actually like Newcastle at plus 175. Ooh. They seem to be finding their form.
26:32
I have them pre-flop at plus 230, I think it was, before the season, so I'm not doubling down, but if you're looking for something the rest of the way, I like them.
26:39
Uh, they've won five straight by a combined 15 to 1, and their defense has really looked better. So Newcastle plus 175 I think could sneak into that top four pretty easily.
26:47
Only a point behind Chelsea for fourth place currently is Newcastle. Let's go to the bottom of the table. Uh, relegation for the bottom three, is there a bet on that side? I don't think so. Uh, Southampton's minus 5,000.
27:01
They're going down. So, uh, I had that pre-flop at plus 110, so I hope some people followed that one. Uh, Leicester and Ipswich are the other newly promoted teams. Leicester's in big trouble.
27:10
I think they're around minus 400 now. Uh, Wolves and Everton are the other two that are not currently in the relegation zone, but could get there. Both just changed managers. I don't really like these prices.
27:21
I think there's obviously a chance, but I'd wanna get more like plus 300 on especially Everton, uh, if I were gonna play this.
27:28
So those three newly promoted teams just look qualitatively worse than anybody else, and the numbers match that.
27:35
So I don't really like a play here, uh, but Everton or Wolves I think could slip down there, just those prices aren't very good. Um, I'm just looking at this, and halfway through the season, Southampton has six points.
27:46
Yeah. Six points through 20 games. There's 18 games left, so a little more than half the season. The record, 'cause I was curious- Derby County... D- Derby County. I was gonna ask if you knew.
27:55
Derby County- 07-08 had 11 points, I think. Bam. Got it all right. 2000, uh, 2007, 2008, 11 points for Derby County. So, uh, [laughs] the, uh, so- Yeah... so Southampton is on pace, almost exactly on pace for that. Yep.
28:10
Just a little ahead of pace. Now does Der- can Derby County, do they, do they have a derby? Is it they're a Derby derby or anything? Derby derby? Yeah, that'd be cool. No. There's gotta be. There's gotta be.
28:18
[laughs] I don't know my England geography well enough to know, but there's gotta be a Derby derby. Ellie Bidwell, ladies and gentlemen. [laughs] That's my contribution. [laughs] That's it. Thanks, Kelly.
28:29
Uh, are you ready for a, uh, for a Tim Lawson, The Better Life question? Oh, yeah, always. Let's go. Um- This will be smarter than mine. [laughs] Yeah, either one. It might be.
28:36
Uh, this is from Tim Lawson, The Better Life. By the way, uh, The Better Life, I think he just did his last The Better Life podcast. He's done more than 200 of them. Are you serious? He's done?
28:45
I think he wants to do something else, but he's, but he, but that might pr- the Better Life in its, in, it is, the iteration that it was in I think is over. Wow. Yeah. Good for him. That's sad. It is sad. Very good.
28:56
He did a great job. Yeah. He, he had a gr- uh, T- Tim Lawson did a great job because he found a, uh, niche where it was like rec plus betters. Mm-hmm.
29:04
So it was just an, an awesome little podcast that, and he was kind enough to have me on several times. Um, so I was always honored to be on. But he asks, "Ready for another Paul Carr segment.
29:13
With 18 or 19 matches left to go, I'm curious if he thinks anyone not named Salah or Haaland can win top goal scorer?" I don't think so.
29:22
I mean, the obvious next guy up is Alexander Isak from Newcastle, who I think is five goals back of Salah right now and around plus 800 or so.
29:30
The issue is he's not taking penalties it seems for Newcastle, or at least he hasn't so far this season, the two or three that they've had.
29:36
So being able to make up that ground on Salah and Haaland, even if he were to score as much from open play, which he pretty much has this season, losing that, you know, two, three, five, six penalties is probably not enough.
29:48
I do have a preseason bet on him at plus 1600, so- Ooh... I have good COV or something, uh, for where it's at now. Good horse though. But- Yeah... I'm not saying- Yeah...
29:56
I don't think anyone's gonna catch both of those guys. Okay. Um, you know what people want. They want the picks. What do you got? All right. We got, everyone's playing midweek. All three of these picks are today.
30:06
I'll start with West Ham and Fulham. I have over two and a half at minus 105. Uh, four of Fulham's last five games have had three plus goals, both on the scoreboard and the underlying numbers really match that.
30:17
West Ham's been one of the worst defenses in the league all season. It did just change manager. Graham Potter is the new guy, used to manage at Brighton and Chelsea. Don't necessarily know how he's gonna play.
30:27
Is he gonna make them better defensively? Uh, he tended to be a little possession based and try to, not slow things down, but just use that possession in a defensive manner.
30:36
I'm not sure he can do that with West Ham, at least right out of the gate, so I think we're gonna get some goals here, and you get a pretty good price at minus 105 for over two and a half.
30:43
And then there's the old double chance Here's your double chance, yeah. There's a lot of these, you know, mid-major type of teams playing bigger clubs, uh, this week, and here's the one I landed on for a double chance.
30:55
Uh, Bournemouth double chance at Chelsea, plus 155. This is a lot about the styles that both teams play. Chelsea likes to have a lot of the ball, second-most possession in the league this season.
31:05
Bournemouth is down to 15th at 46%, and that's just where they wanna be.
31:09
They wanna beat you on the counterattack, and Chelsea has really struggled, uh, as far as their outside backs go, defending the counterattack, and that's exactly where Bournemouth is gonna go at them.
31:18
So these teams have been basically even this season from a statistical standpoint. You're getting plus 155 on a double chance, even though it's at Chelsea.
31:26
That's pretty good, so give me the Bournemouth double chance here. Explain the double chance for the new, new listeners as well. Yep. Win or draw. A lot of books will have it listed exactly that, double chance.
31:35
Some will just have your alt spreads where, so it'd be the same thing as Bournemouth plus half a goal. All right, and then one more. This is an under, and these are all today, as you said. All today.
31:45
Nottingham Forest and Liverpool. The, aside from Man City, you can make a case that Forest being currently in third place is the story of the Premier League season.
31:54
I don't think they're quite that good, but they're a, you know, solid top-half team so far this year. Uh, Liverpool again, title favorite by a lot. Uh, Forest has done it with defense. They give up low-quality shots.
32:05
They've only allowed multiple goals at home one time this season. They'll score a ton themselves, only scored multiple goals twice at home. Those six of their nine home games have been under two and a half so far.
32:14
Liverpool's gonna have all the ball, 70% maybe in this game. Forest will be fine with that. Uh, Forest is gonna try to scratch out a one-nil win. They may do that.
32:22
I don't think Liverpool will get any more than two goals, so one way or another, I like the under two and a half here. You're getting plus 125 for me. All right.
32:29
Did you know that, uh, Kelly, top four in the Premier League, Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, and Chelsea, one of those teams is not like the other?
32:36
No, I did, uh, and I did know that because I typed up that graphic. Okay. Not- Nottingham Forest and Newcastle, uh, don't seem to belong around there.
32:43
Uh, Paul- Forest used to, Forest won, uh, European Cup back in the late '70s, so they have some history, but they hadn't been in the Premier League for a while until they came out just a couple years ago.
32:52
I only think about Robin Hood when I hear, uh, Nottingham Forest. As most do. Yeah. As most do. Uh, Paul's three-pack once again, all today. West Ham, Fulham over two and a half goals.
33:01
Bournemouth double chance at plus 155, always shop around, at Chelsea. And then Nottingham Forest and Liverpool under two and a half goals at plus 125.
33:08
Paul, as a, uh, Skins fan who, uh, took 19 years to win a playoff game, uh, from the last time they did, I, I wish you, uh, and the Dolphins fans a similar experience one year soon. Someday. Someday it'll happen again.
33:21
It's been since the year 2000. Oh, you're on the clock, as we say. There we go. Good luck to you, sir. Paul, thank you so much. Have a good one.
33:28
Paul Carr, check out The Ringer gambling podcast, wherever podcasts are distributed, the soccer version- Great show... the Premier League ver- uh, version from Paul Carr. Uh, we'll come back.
33:38
Our best bets all recapped, plus an NFL market that often gets ignored. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Back on the numbers game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside. Wanna do our G-Bank best bets of the day? Yeah, let's do it. Why don't we do that?
34:01
Courtesy of G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN, the sports betting network. Uh, I have made two divisional round bets, batting 1,000 so far- Hey... in the NFL playoffs. Rams plus six for me, and the Ravens minus one.
34:16
I couldn't get to the Ravens, uh, sooner, uh, 'cause I was sitting here doing a show. You know, I hate to be distracted by a show.
34:22
But I had the Ravens favored, uh, and I couldn't believe that line, uh, that the Bills were favored. I just think the Ravens are a better football team, and I am shocked by how big the Rams line is.
34:29
I just don't, I think it's a, a disrespectful line. As good as the Eagles are, I think the Rams keep it close at a minimum, and I do think the Rams are kinda live. Those are my two NFL bets. Yeah. Mr. Bidlin, sir.
34:40
Yeah, I only have the one teaser so far this week. I will, I will probably end up, uh, small on the Bills at some point, but I, no, I'm not rushing. I'm not rushing.
34:50
And then the Chicago Bulls tonight at home against the New Orleans Pelicans.
34:54
I am, uh, reading, I, I have a tough read on this Pelicans team right now that is getting healthier, but man, they have been absolutely terrible, three and seven in their last 10, uh, minus 6.6 net rating outside of, uh, garbage time minutes.
35:10
Uh, the Bulls been playing pretty well. They do have a couple injuries, though. That number's come down, so you can get Bulls closer to about one and a half, two, if you did wanna bet that side tonight.
35:18
But I am on the Chicago Bulls, and then that one NFL bets. All right, uh, from the guest today, Drew Dinsick. He's got Naomi Osaka today at plus 210 going up against Carolina Muchova.
35:30
I'll go over my, uh, tennis futures once again for the Aussie Open. Um, that would not be good for, uh, my Muchova bets, but he's on Osaka plus 210 in a great second round match in Melbourne. In Melbourne.
35:44
He's also on the Pegula Mertens over 20 and a half games. Great second round match between Jessie Pegula and Elise Mertens. What do you always say when Pegula's playing? Yeah, I'm, I'm rooting for her.
35:55
I don't care, I don't care about the overs as long as she gets home. [laughs] Just really need to make sure she's financially secure going forward.
36:01
[laughs] He's also on Pegula Mertens over two and a half sets at plus 184. He thinks it goes, uh, the full three. And then Keli- uh, excuse me, Drew is on the Texans plus nine.
36:10
He really is high on the Texans in this game against the Chiefs, and he's on the Hawks tonight plus the points in the National Basketball Association.
36:18
And then Will Hill, uh, he did the Chiefs Ravens teaser, six-point teaser.
36:23
Uh, Chiefs down to one and a half, Ravens up to seven and a half, and he's on the Notre Dame team total under in the national championship this coming Monday night. S- under 17 and a half for Will Hill.
36:35
Uh, and then Paul Carr. Oh, forgive me, Paul Carr's Premier League bets. He's got a trio. These are all today if you want some soccer action during the day. West Ham and Fulham over two and a half goals.
36:43
Bournemouth double chance plus 155 at Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest and Liverpool under two and a half goals. That is a, uh, big game in the Premier League. Best bets brought to you by G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
36:54
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37:22
Um, tweets after, after a Twitter blackout, we're finally getting tweets again. Oh, are we? Did you have the same experience? Yeah. Yeah, Twitter was, was down for a second there. I don't know.
37:30
I mean, it's possible we just weren't fascinating enough for 20 minutes for people to tweet. [laughs] No, it's not. No, because it, it wasn't, it wasn't necessarily even comments. It was like likes or anything.
37:38
That never happens. Um, by the way, Kevin Ryan says, "Gilly, Terry McLaurin lined it 68 and a half receiving yards. Giddy up. That'll be in the high 70s by game time," he says. You know what's such an underrated thing?
37:49
That- Te- Terry McLaurin? Well, yeah. But that touchdown grab he had in the end zone where he, like, came back to the ball. Mm.
37:55
Like tho- like those type of things are so important, and especially in those big time moments, and I feel like they just get glossed over.
38:02
Did you, uh, listen- Like, that could have been an easy pass breakup, but him just getting in front of the defensive back to come back to that ball and catch that.
38:10
People, you know, I, I call him, and I've called him for a long time, the incomparable Terry McLaurin, and people, there's, you know, people out there are probably like, "What's his thing with Terry McLaurin?
38:16
I mean, he must be a big Skins fan that he thinks Terry McLaurin is incomparable." Actually, um, Terry McLaurin, when it comes to, when it comes to a certain stat, is incomparable. Do you know what that stat is, uh, Mr.
38:29
Man? Do you have any idea what that is? Guy. Great Washington wide receivers that have played with crappy quarterbacks. That's incorrect. But yes- [laughs]... I did say for the first two weeks of the season, right?
38:39
I said for the first two weeks of the season, ooh, they should really introduce Jayden Daniels to Terry McLaurin and unlocked Terry McLaurin. Uh, here is the stat.
38:46
I'm, I'm frantically looking it up as I'm stalling for time, but here it is. Uh, this is... No, I can't get it. What is this, like, since week two stats or something like that? Here it is. It is the incomparable.
38:55
Um, the Jayden to Terry chemistry is unmatched. When it comes to, and this is, like, super small, but, um, it is, let me get this right. [laughs] DYR- D-Y-A-R per tight coverage.
39:09
The Jayden McDaniels-Terry McLaurin graph, when you do an X and Y axis, McLaurin and Daniels are so far ahead of any other combo in the NFL. It's incomparable.
39:20
There's no one close to as good as they are in tight coverage. Well, McLaurin, you gotta get o- uh, you gotta get open better is what it sounds like. Tight coverage targets, Daniels and McLaurin, a level ahead.
39:29
You know who was one of the worst? Love and Wicks. Hmm. Just to let you know. Hmm. On the Green Bay side. Uh, okay. Let us, uh, well, there's two things we wanna do before the end.
39:38
This gives us an excuse to go country club on ladies and gentlemen with some tennis. Oh, yeah. Let's do it. Let's review Gil's tennis picks. Let's go. Yeah. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah. Oh. Can't beat Drew down.
39:56
No. You just start talking. [laughs] Listen, here's the thing. Oh, yeah. I feel like, uh, narcotics need to be involved with this kind of thing. [laughs] That's something I might be frowned upon.
40:06
For the, for those, yeah, very probably true. [laughs] Boys and girls, don't do that kind of thing. Um, my Australian Open futures bets, by the way, all made pre-flop.
40:13
Again, on the women's side, Iga +550, Mira Andreeva 25 to 1, Karolína Muchová at 30 to 1. Thank you, Stations, for posting that number. Also at Stations, they had a Q2 and a Q4. Muchová six to one Q2, Iga +115 Q4.
40:28
Stations really had some great numbers. Got those Friday. And then on the men's side, Alex de Minaur 50 to 1 on the men's side. Grigor's already done. Grigor. He barely la- he barely lasted a set. He had to withdraw.
40:39
He was like, "I can't play tennis." 65 to 1. And then yesterday, João Fonseca, who I had plus money against, uh, Andrey Rublev, a top 10 player in the world, a former top fiver.
40:49
Fonseca in straights, I have him 14 to 1 in Q2. Oh, that's who he beat? That's who he beat. Old Rublev got bounced already? Man. Yes, sir. That's who he beat.
40:57
By the way, shout out to Zach Cohen, who also has João doing big things in the tournament. He, j- I'll tell you what Zach did to my point about how big that match was.
41:05
Zach took both João and Rublev Q2 just to have someone advance from there. Hmm. So now we're both on João, as João is the one who advances.
41:14
Um, and again, as far as the Australian Open, uh, match plays that I have, the match bets, I will after this show, after our brunch, I will go and I will handicap, uh, round two matches tonight.
41:25
That's the, with the time zones how they are, when these matches are, that's the schedule.
41:29
So I don't have any on the show itself today, or probably, unless there's a postponement with rain as we had with Osorio, uh, yesterday.
41:36
Camilo Osorio winning as a +164 or +170 dog, I can't remember the number, against Maria Sakkari, which she did at 3 yesterday.
41:45
Um, unless that sort of situation happens, typically when the, when the tour is in Australia, we don't usually have the, them on the show. But if you're a Vsan subscriber, vsan.com/picks, I have mine every day.
41:56
Zach Cohen has his tennis picks every day. So check that out. Vsan subscriptions pay. Uh, finally on the show, I wanted to bring this up. And by the way, we'll do more of your, uh, NBA stuff tomorrow perhaps.
42:07
Oh, yeah, yeah. 'Cause you have other award stuff. Yeah, the, those were the, the clu- That was the main thing... the clutch ones were I've actually made bets here recently. Oh, okay. So- Okay. Yeah...
42:13
I mean, I've got takes on the other ones, but- Eh, takes, shmakes. Don't know about them... most improved s- if someone doesn't win on this desk, we're, we're kinda getting to that point, Gil. Really?
42:23
So- I've got 22 to 1 and 55 to 1 on the top two guys right now. Who are? Cade Cunningham and Tyler Herro. Where's my guy? Shout out Michael Montesano. Where's my guy, Norm Powell?
42:32
Norm Powell you've, is, is in single digits. There you go. Okay. That's what I'm saying. So someone on this desk is gonna win. We gotta win, one of us. Okay. Um, NFL, you always see this every year.
42:44
We rarely talk about it. AFC versus NFC, which conference wins the Super Bowl? That's it. That's it. Real simple. It's very simple.
42:52
It's one of these things like, you know, too cool for school, like, "Why would we bet AFC versus NFC?" Um, but based on our power ratings- Yep...
42:58
that you and I have both had, um, in whatever order, we got three AFC teams, Baltimore, Buffalo, and Kansas City at the top, and then we had s- all seven NFC playoff teams after that. Mm-hmm.
43:09
That hasn't changed here heading into the divisional round. Those are still the three top teams. The AFC right now is priced at what? Minus 115? So the, you typically see this almost every year. It's- Yeah...
43:19
about by, it, it is minus 115 and minus, not minus 110, so there is that. Yes. But it's minus 115 usually on both sides.
43:26
And I mean, occasionally you'll see it move a little heavier on one side, but usually not till you get closer to the Super Bowl, right? Yeah. Because that kind of makes sense as you narrow down teams.
43:36
I'm betting this today.
43:38
I am betting the AFC minus 115 because I can't get to a point where I th- if I get the Bills, Ravens, or the Chiefs in that Super Bowl, that they're going to have a better price than that against anybody from the NFC.
43:52
Yeah, 'cause you, you, you have to th- Including Lions... you have to th- I'm talking about the Lions... you have to think yours- to yourself, what, what matchup would you get the worst of it on that in the Super Bowl?
43:59
Not many. It's, I mean, I mean, it's the Lions, and we were kind of talking about this during a break with Drew, right? Lions, and I guess if the Chiefs just squeak by- If the Chiefs squeak by...
44:08
but if it's, if it's the Bills or Ravens, that means they beat, y- the Ravens beat the Bills, then they beat the Chiefs, and then they're going to the Super Bowl. They're gonna be big favorites.
44:16
Obviously, the answer to that question is if the Texans got to the Super Bowl, but we think that's off the table. Anyway, didn't think we'd talk AFC, NFC, but there you go. I'm betting. I like it. Yeah. That's for sure.
44:25
We've done all we can do. Monday Moves with Storybot and Tony. Jeff Schwartz, our co-host today. Enjoy from Visa, the Sports Betting Network.
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