Search
Login
Sign Up
Mar 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | HR 1 | 03.10.25
A Numbers Game | HR 1 | 03.10.25
00:00
44:52
1×
Transcript
0:02
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:12
There's a numbers game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Hey-o. How you doing, bud? How you doing, man?
0:24
It's a numbers game. I don't know what's going on with my hair, but, you know, we'll get through it. Yeah, yeah. All good with you? How was, uh, how was Indian Wells? Um, from a fan perspective- Yeah...
0:32
I'm just gonna go out and say, first of all, thank you for asking. I'm gonna go out and say, and this is maybe from the tennis hardo in me, it's the greatest sports fan experience in North America.
0:43
I don't know about the rest of the world, but m- and maybe the Masters. Okay, I'll put the Masters, 'cause the Masters is obviously a bucket list. But you can't top Indian Wells. You can't.
0:52
It's a Grand Slam field, it's in a, it's in Palm Springs, perfect weather during the day. When it's a perfect day. Sometimes it gets windy, right? Um, but still, basically pristine.
1:02
And they're a- they're all in my hotel, and it's not like a posh hotel. Yeah. It's right down the street. It's like an, it's like a Renaissance.
1:11
And every- and you have top 20, top 30 players, and, and you're not even hanging out in the lobby. You're just coming and going. They're there, right?
1:17
Like, you know, there's Ons Jabeur hanging out in the lobby, like, in that, with that, uh, "Don't talk to me, but I kinda want you to talk to me," uh- [laughs]...
1:24
way to doing this, 'cause when they lo- Like, I hope people recognize me, but, uh, don't talk to me. It, it also gives you, I mean, Yulia Putintseva in my hotel, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Tomas Machac.
1:33
These are all top 20, top 30 players. Now, if you're at the top of the top, right, Novak, Carlitos, Iga, Aryna, you can't be there.
1:39
Um, but, but it's teeming with players, and it gives you a sense of the economics of the sport, too, where it's like, oh, like, first of all, they don't even, like, Yulia Putintseva and Ons Jabeur you will not mistake for athletic specimens.
1:54
Mm. Yet they are two of the greatest players in the world. And then they're kinda like, you know, you're checking in, you're checking out, they're right in line in front of you by themselves working it out.
2:04
Like, it doesn't, it's- Uh- If you're not at the top of that sport, the very tippy top, it's not great economics. Yeah. Yeah. It's fascinating. We talk about that a fair amount. And it is fascinating.
2:13
It really is, uh, interesting with that stuff. What was the, uh, what was the weather like, and then what did, uh, was Saturday your big day? Uh- Was that the most hours consumed of tennis?
2:22
Well, Saturday was the big day. Friday night was, uh, Jessie Pegula. By the way, you know when they hit the ball in the stands after they get? I caught one of Jessie's balls. Really? Yeah, I did. Wow.
2:30
And De- That's so, that's so generous of her... Deborah Song, fashion stylist, thought I was, like, Junior Griffey out there snagging balls.
2:35
[laughs] Uh, just Pegula, uh, Xinlu Zheng, and, uh, Medvedev for, uh, s- Friday night. Saturday day was the big one. Maddie Keys followed by Carlitos and Novak Djokovic.
2:45
And I fel- I feel like, by the way, that's a bucket list item, I feel like we saw the end of the big three era- Mm... with his lo- with his loss to Botic van de Zandschulp.
2:53
It was the second year in a row he's lost to a lucky loser at Indian Wells. Um, and then, uh, Aryna Sabalenka and Gael Monfils on Saturday night. So it was just, it was fantastic. That's great. That's great. Fantastic.
3:05
Now, from a betting perspective, the first four days was a disaster, an unmitigated disaster.
3:09
Not only a disaster, but, like, not even close in many of the matches, to the point where I'm like, "Should I just be applying my clay numbers to this?" 'Cause the courts were slow. Oh, really? Oh, yeah.
3:18
They were just as slow as ever. Interesting. And then the world returned to its axis yesterday, thank you very much, um, with a winning day. Yusuke Watanabe, we hit at plus 193.
3:28
We meaning all of us who, who, who backed it here on the show. Uh, and then with the picks, the pro picks, vsin.com/picks for all subscribers. A big plus 193 win over, uh, Frances Tiafoe yesterday.
3:39
He was ama- that was an amazing match last night. Um, but yeah, there's, there's- Everything's free at vsin.com right now. Free, free, free. Free, free, free. Work to do, though, in that tournament.
3:47
Though this is the one tournament where it appears like, I don't know, may- we're, we're not dead on any of the futures.
3:53
Maybe this is the tournament where we hit all the futures, which is really weird, 'cause it's, there's been tons of upsets. None of our futures, though, really, with the exception of the Osaka one. Mm-hmm.
4:01
But we have Pegula also in that quarter. Um, so that was the one we could afford to lose. Um, but, like, some of the upsets so big you could never have predicted them, the Novak Djokovic one being the biggest of them.
4:10
Anyway, we have two plays today in tennis. They happen to be both favorites, which is very rare for, uh, what we do here. Daria Kasatkina minus one, one is, pardon me, minus 140 against Ludmilla Samsonova.
4:21
Um, Kasatkina minus 140. She's a little higher than that now. I would not let, I would not let it get into the minus 150s. But I would play it here at minus 140. Right now I'm seeing minus 147, still on the edge.
4:33
I'd play it. Grigor Dimitrov minus 121 over the aforementioned Gael Monfils, uh, is the other play in tennis.
4:41
So one on the ladies' side, one on the men's side, and then if you look at our, our futures, Kelly, I did add one. I finally added one on the men's side. I finally did pull the trigger on Carlitos, a plus 120 to win it.
4:50
But the rest, uh, Iga to win it all, Iga to win her quarter, um, Pegula to win her quarter, Benches to win her quarter. Those are all alive. All alive. We'll get into that. And, uh, you've got the fifth major.
5:01
You got golf's fifth major coming up this week as well, right? That's right, Players Championship. Yeah, yeah, golf was, uh, golf was okay over the weekend. It was, I got in live on Morikawa on Saturday, so.
5:10
W- would've been a nice little winning, uh, weekend if he had gotten home, but, uh, Russell Henley, man, chip of a lifetime on 16. Chips it in, takes the lead, never looks back, uh, at the Arnold Palmer.
5:21
Great tournament, great tournament over the weekend. I, I heard NBC didn't catch the eagle chip, uh, from the beginning, that they tuned in mid-chip.
5:28
I was gonna say, I saw it, but yes, I believe they were coming right back from commercial, and it was, like, it was right coming off the club. Yeah, which ends up being the biggest shot of the entire tournament.
5:38
Oh, by far. Yeah, by far. 'Cause he takes the lead and then holds the lead. Yep. Yeah. So it was, uh, it was good, though. Like, couple top 20s got home, match-ups, top Nordic player for Ludvig got home. So, you know.
5:46
[laughs] Pretty, pretty good. Those the, those are the bets we talk about- Ah, Nordic Betting golf, it's, uh, look, it's staying alive while you're hitting those out.
5:53
If you're not hitting outrights, it's keeping that bankroll alive to go throughout the re- rest of the season. So, um, it was one of those tournaments. Good. Nordic countries, what a good...
6:01
Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden. So Scandi- Scandinavia plus two. Yeah, which, uh, s- one of them dropped out, so it really ended up just being a matchup against, uh, Viktor Hovland at minus 140.
6:11
So it was actually, it was, like, even, even a better bet. All right. There you go. Yeah.
6:15
Uh, college hoops front, of course, center stage, uh, all week into the selection show on Sunday, and then March Madness begins next week. Next week, baby. It's crazy, man. Wish they were in town today.
6:25
It's gonna be awesome. Uh, five, five auto bids already punched, Kelly, in case you missed it. Um, Atlantic Sun, Lipscomb, the number one seed, gets home. They were, uh, minus 170 pre-flop.
6:36
Big South, the number one seed, High Point, gets home, minus 250. Ohio Valley, uh, SIU Edwardsville, plus 270 pre-flop, the number two seed gets the auto bid.
6:46
Summit League, Nebraska Omaha, good call by Jim Pa- James Patrick Root on the show, uh, plus 450. They won by default since, uh, St. Thomas was ineligible, but they went ahead and won yesterday anyway.
6:57
And then the Missouri Valley, Drake at minus 110, they, uh, the number one seed, they get in, and so they will not steal anyone's auto bid, or, uh, steal anyone else's bid, I should say.
7:06
So that's good for the rest of the field that that happened. Um, got, uh, this is the, this is the day where it's only 12 basketball games, right?
7:14
After today, it's mayhem, starting with, uh, you know, a whole bunch of conference tourneys starting tomorrow. Um, and that includes the ACC. Doesn't include, I'll tell you all of them.
7:26
ACC, Big 12, Conference USA, Metro Atlantic, SWAC, WAC, it all begins tomorrow. Then the next day, of course, uh, the Big Easts and the Big Tens of the world. Um, and of course, the SEC, chief among them, starts.
7:38
So it is going to be mayhem. But tonight is the one sort of quiet night. We're going to the, uh, West Coast Conference semis tonight, um, at the Orleans. At the Orleans. So from In- from Indian Wells to the Orleans.
7:49
That's my, uh- Isn't that, it's the only one I never have any desire to go to, Kelly.
7:52
Oh, well, we, uh- Or, or, or adorable Dol- Dollar Loan Center or whatever it's called now, 'cause I think it's changed names somehow, and it's, like, three years of existence. Big, big West Tournament. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
8:00
Yeah. I love that place. Yeah, it's, well, it's great. 4,000 people. Orleans, man. Uh, as we begin each and every Monday on the run-up to the, uh, to the big dance with our college basketball formula.
8:10
Remember, we, uh, started the first iteration of this this year. It was two weeks ago. Uh, and it was Auburn, Duke, and Houston that qualified our college basketball formula. Last week, Auburn, Duke, and Houston.
8:23
Um, let's remind people what the college basketball formula is. Again, tried and true if you're new to the show. These are the six qualifiers.
8:31
These are the six points of the formula that have really isolated, with rare exception, who every college basketball champion from the group that they'll come, uh, to be honest.
8:40
Last, last 34 champs had more assists than turnovers. 32 of the last 34 champs had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience prior to this year. The only exceptions, 2014, Kevin Ollie, UConn Huskies.
8:52
2023, Danny Hurley, UConn Huskies. 28 of the last 29 champs went into the tournament with at least three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI. That's how long we've been doing this.
9:02
The only exception, the 2014 UConn Huskies. Last 29 champs had a top 75 strength of schedule. And then the two KenPom categories. 21 of the last 22 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
9:14
The only exception, the 2014 UConn Huskies. You sense a theme. And then adjusted defensive efficiency, top 20. 21 of the last 22 were in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
9:25
The only exception, the 2021 Baylor Bears. So that's the only non-UConn exception in all of this. But that said, every champion besides that, what is that, 98%, have all met the six criteria.
9:39
And so again, it was Auburn, Duke, and Houston two weeks ago. It was Auburn, Duke, and Houston last week. Kelly, guess who qualifies this week? Those three teams. Again.
9:49
[laughs] Auburn, Auburn, Duke, and Houston are you, are the three teams that qualify per the, uh, college basketball formula. Auburn, Duke, and Houston once again. Um, nothing has changed.
10:02
Auburn first and 14th KenPom, offense, defense. Duke second and fourth. Houston 10th and second, offensive, defense respectively.
10:09
Now, the one team, once again, that qualifies except for the Sweet 16, the head coach with prior Sweet 16 experience, is Florida with Todd Golden. Uh, they are, for instance, in KenPom, third and 10th now.
10:23
But obviously Todd Golden can't go back in time and get Sweet 16 experience, so they, they can't get there in terms of this formula. But they're the kind of their own category, the Florida Gators.
10:33
So just file them away mentally. The only thing that has changed is who are the closest teams besides that on the outside looking in? And in prior weeks it was Iowa State, uh, and it was Arizona.
10:44
But Iowa State, um, no longer there. They're now 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency. And then Arizona dropped to 29th defensive efficiency, um, and they've only beaten two teams in the top 10% of RPI.
10:59
They gave up to 100 to Arizona. They gave up 100 points to Arizona State here this week. They lost to Kansas, which was a chance to get another, uh, top 10% RPI win. They lost five of their last eight.
11:10
So Arizona and Iowa State both back away from the sort of force field that is the qualifying line. The two closest, Clemson, 18th and 21st adjusted defensive efficiency.
11:23
Clemson, uh, is the closest to that line, along with Tennessee, which has crept up offensively, 22nd now adjusted offensive efficiency, first in adjusted defensive efficiency.
11:37
So closest on the outside looking in, Florida in their own category can't get there. But Clemson and Tennessee knocking at the door. That's your college basketball formula.
11:47
Duke, Auburn, Houston qualifying and only them qualifying once again.
12:04
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Kelly was just mentioning this before the break. VSiN free until Selection Sunday.
12:13
Sign up today at vsin.com/champweek and enjoy full VSiN pro access instantly, including daily best bets to help you cash more tickets, exclusive betting splits from DraftKings and Circus SportsBooks, 24/7 video with full access to the VSiN Watch app, full vsin.com access including expert analysis, trends, and pro betting systems.
12:30
Don't miss out on this free VSiN pro preview. Get the insights you need to bet the tournament smarter. No cost, no commitment. Sign up now at vsin.com/champweek and enjoy free access through March 16th.
12:42
That's vsin.com/champweek, V-S-I-N.com/champweek. No cost, no commitment, Kelly. That's right. No cost, no commitment. It's good. Free is better than paying for stuff. Skill Alexander. That's Kelly Bilin, everybody.
12:55
Um, we, we launched right into the Indian Wells thing. We didn't even, uh, say he was on the show today. What, what are we doing? We, whatever. Wes- Reset.
13:03
[laughs] Wes Reynolds on the show today to talk golf and college hoops. By the way, all the conference tourney odds now out for conference tournaments. So, uh, we will, uh, see if Wes has any of that.
13:14
Ben Wilson on college hoops and college baseball. Ben Wilson on the show today. That's right, Benny. A whole bunch of college basketball on the show today. Dr.
13:22
Bob will join us, there it is, I hope he remembers that he's on the show, uh, with his conference tournament trends that he loves to talk about every year.
13:30
Um, we're not really a trend show, but every once in a while, and this is one of those whiles, um, this is one of those once in a whiles I should say, uh, we do talk about it, and this is that week with conference tournaments.
13:41
He's got some solid stuff. And then Carl Sack coming up this hour, uh, to discuss the National Basketball Association. Oh, Dr. Bob is, uh, texting me right now as we speak. You know what he said?
13:50
He goes, "Yeah, I remember." There you go. Oh, okay. There we go. So we guarantee it. Um, National Football League, so we left here, we leave here every, uh, day at 9:00 AM Pacific, 12 noon Eastern.
14:01
And as, uh, the great Ron Flatter used to say when he was the adult supervision here at, uh, VSiN on the on-air side, he goes, "You know why that is, Gil? Well," he, he would add an H sometimes where it didn't belong.
14:12
He'd be like, "Well, uh, that's because the news cycle begins right at noon Eastern, and that's when stuff comes in."
14:18
So we leave on Friday, and, uh, Geno Smith is traded to the Ra- [laughs] is traded to the Raiders for a third round pick.
14:27
And I don't know what your reaction was to this to kick off the football s- you know, wildness this weekend in terms of transactions, but I'm like, what? What, what, what? So the Raiders...
14:38
And the Raiders were talking like, "This is our quarterback of the future." They were using that kind of language. I'm like, yeah, it's not your future. He's 35.
14:45
Um, but the Raiders, I guess Pete Carroll is like, "We're winning now." Um, A, no you're not, and B, okay, sure. Um- I think he's a perfectly fine bridge quarterback to get them to whatever comes next.
14:55
To whatever is on the other side of the bridge. Well, it's probably gonna... Like, look, they pro- that bridge probably needs to last a couple years anyways, Gil. Yeah, sure. So this one I'm okay with.
15:02
Some of these other ones that might happen today, I've got far more questions about. Are you surprised by the Seattle Seahawks' willingness to just clear house?
15:11
A little bit, but like you and, you and I have talked about so often, if a team has some vision in mind, be aggressive. Like, it, it is, w- is that, was that roster winning them a Super Bowl? Nope. Be aggressive.
15:24
So then what are we talking about, right? Be, be aggressive. So- That, that's kind of where I, I've circled back to. I mean, look, I was high on that Seattle team last year.
15:31
You and I both had, uh, McDonald Coach of the Year tickets. Uh, they ended up performing pretty well, I would say, with some room to grow, but they were never getting to a Super Bowl.
15:41
I don't think they were winning a Super Bowl with that group. So if, if you've decided that's the case, I got no problem with you blowing the whole thing up and starting over. Is Sam Howell your quarterback? Are you...
15:49
Or s- or Sam Darnold coming into town? I mean, like, so th- that's, th- this is like the Geno one I have far less problems with, with, uh, than a lot of these others.
15:57
Like, I guess we're kind of just penciling in Sam Darnold to Seattle right now and- Feels like it... are we...
16:03
Like, I'll go back to a lot, one of the things we talked about a lot during the season, Sam Darnold, it, it's one season, uh, uh, of, uh, that we're taking away from in Minnesota of, of his progress as a quarterback.
16:14
One season with a lot of weapons in Minnesota, and now we expect him to go to Seattle that just tr- moved away from all its weapons and him to be all that great? I don't...
16:22
That's my thing is like, okay, we're just moving... This is my thing, we're just moving chairs here on several Titanics.
16:28
Um, not that the Seahawks are Titanic, but, like, I don't, I don't know what this does for you short term. Not good. Not good. Right? Yeah.
16:35
And the Raiders, you're not doing anything, and no matter how many times people here try to act like they are. So there's that. I'll just do these in chronological order.
16:43
And then, uh, we found out Davante Adams went to the Rams on a two-year deal, and my reaction to that was, oh, okay. So he's, uh, distancing himself from Aaron Rodgers here. I like that.
16:54
Hard not to love that move, right? For Davante and for the Rams. Yeah. Love it. Yeah. Love that one. Uh, only makes a already good team better.
17:01
Um, then we find out Buffalo signs Josh Allen to a six-year, $330 million contract, 250 guaranteed. Just a huge deal for Josh Allen. He deserves every penny of it. Every penny.
17:13
Um, then we find out, or no, maybe we found out this one before, Myles Garrett resigning with the Browns actually happened before the Josh Allen one.
17:21
Four-year extension that averages 40 million per year, includes 123 and a half million guaranteed. Largest contract ever for a non... or excuse me, for a defensive player. Good on Myles Garrett.
17:32
Deserves every bit of it, but, you know, he played for Cleveland last year too, right? So, okay. That, the only thing, my only reaction to that was, oh, good, he's not gonna play for the Eagles.
17:41
That was what I was worried about as a Skins guy, right? Um, and then- I'm surprised that would happen this quick. Like, Garrett seemed to have his heels dug in. Oh, sure. And then, like, this always happens.
17:51
And then it's like, how much are you offering me? Yeah, how much? Yeah, how much? Sure, I'll take that.
17:55
Um, okay, and then there was the, uh, the sort of, uh, flurry yesterday as well with, uh, you know, it was Davante, and then we find out DK Metcalf... goes, this is talking about Seattle again.
18:06
They trade DK Metf- Me- Metcalf, pardon me, DK Metcalf to Pittsburgh for a 2025 second round pick and pick swaps in the sixth and seventh rounds. Pittsburgh, uh, giving Metcalf a five-year, $150 million extension.
18:19
Steelers, when we were going through, like, next team for players, we mentioned them as that's a team that obviously needs help there. Now you have two number 14s. Somebody's got a pick of 14.
18:30
Pickens and, uh, Metcalf are your, are your wide outs. [laughs] Didn't even think about that. That's a heck of a pair of wide outs, by the way.
18:36
Um, Ben Roethlisberger, Ben Roethlisberger joking, "I should come out of retirement." No one asked you, Ben. Um- [laughs] But D- but we were right about first and third was too much. They lowered their asking cost. Yes.
18:47
It ends up being a second. So DK goes to Pittsburgh as Seattle clears house offensively. Pittsburgh now, is Justin Fields gonna be your quarterback? Is Russell Wilson gonna be your...
18:58
Well, like, what's your, who's your quarterback? I mean, this is, this is the big question I have, right? Like, I love DK Metcalf. I think if you're almost any team...
19:06
It, this was pricey, but he's that good of a wide receiver. I'm okay with it, Gil, but who's your quarterback? So- You, you don't have a quarterback... which brings us back to Aaron Rodgers.
19:15
And now the latest rumors about Aaron Rodgers, which again, I, I just thought at this point, hang 'em up, retire, do the right thing. But no, he's not gonna do it.
19:25
There's the, still the Giants rumor is still out there, and now the Steelers rumor is out there, that they're in play perhaps for Aaron Rodgers. I don't believe the Giants for a second.
19:35
Are we really gonna see- No, I don't either... Aaron Rodgers in a Giants uniform? No, it doesn't make any sense. Why would... First of all, why would Aaron Rodgers do that? Ri- I don't, I don't think he would.
19:43
[laughs] Secondly, why would the... And maybe more importantly, why would the Giants do this? Um, you know, again, the Chris Feliga theory is the Giants would never take the Jets' sloppy seconds to begin with.
19:54
And then if you're the Giants, what's that gonna do for you? Like, I don't get it. Like, what's, what's the point of that? Um, so I, that doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
20:01
But as I've said, Minnesota kind of makes sense. Yeah. A- if Sam Darnold's going away, if he... But i- but that's the thing is that Aaron Rodgers is n- is not, like, the mentor type for a JJ McCarthy. Also that, yep.
20:13
He's, he's, how can I put this? Ungenerous. Well, to be f- to be fair, I think he learned a little bit of that from Brett Favre, too, right? Like, it, it, it's, yeah.
20:20
No, that's what, hurt, hurt people hurt people from football. Right. [laughs] Right, exactly, yeah. Yeah, no. So I don't know. Pittsburgh maybe would...
20:27
Pi- Pittsburgh w- I first of all, I cannot picture him in a Steelers uniform. That's, that's very odd to me. But he, um, that would be a great landing spot for him personally.
20:37
But if you're the Steelers, do you want that drama? I don't know. And by the way, by the way, Russell Wilson ended up being pretty damn good last year.
20:44
And now he's got one of his biggest targets of all time coming to the team, and those two are still pretty close. Like, I don't know, I wouldn't rule Russell Wilson out at all. Now Wilson and Metcalf now.
20:55
Yeah, Wilson and Metcalf. Yeah.
20:57
The, uh, uh, the Fields stuff is interesting 'cause it sounds like the Steelers want him more than he wants the Steelers, and good on you, Justin Fields, not that, not that you've really accomplished anything in this league to, to be like this, but it's, uh, I mean, the rumors are, rumors or reports are that he's like, "No, man, you benched me.
21:13
Why am I gonna come back to your team? You benched me. I'd rather go start for the Jets or something." Um, does any of this move a needle to the point that you would consider a bet?
21:22
The, I mean- M- Mister I'm always under on the Steelers every single year of my life. So I saw, uh, who was it?
21:28
Evan Code over at ESPN sig- uh, bring up today, what if Aaron Rodgers goes to Pittsburgh and then, and then creates the first losing season ever for Mike Tomlin? That would be awesome. What, what a story that would be.
21:38
[laughs] That would be awesome. Um, Davante Adams to the Rams, right? You already knew the Ram- I think that's it... you knew the Rams were a player already.
21:45
You bring in Sta- you bring back Stafford, who you basically called his bluff and you know wants to be there, you know he wants to be there, you called his bluff, and now Davante Adams comes in.
21:55
You're gonna pair Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. You got Kyren Williams. Watch out, it's one of the best offenses in the NFC. That'd be my answer, too.
22:01
I think that's the biggest one there, because again, the Rams had the football with a chance to beat the Eagles in the divisional round, in the snow. Yep.
22:10
Um, I think that's big, assuming, you know, Davante hasn't lost a step, um, which I don't think we can assume. Yeah. No, you're right. I don't think he has, though. Yeah.
22:18
And another, next biggest one on there, Gil, Josh Allen. B- Buffalo, you got no worries for six more years, baby. Yeah. They were never gonna have that one. No, you weren't. Yeah. But it's fine. Uh, uh, lock him up.
22:29
You're gonna have a lot of fun. Jump through some tables for me, drink some beers. Josh Allen gonna have a lot of fun for you for the next six years. Josh Allen, Miles Garrett, deserving every penny they got. Yep.
22:40
Every penny. Uh, we'll come back. Carl Sack on the National Basketball Association. He moves lines when he releases plays. I don't know that he'll have any this early in the morning.
22:48
Uh, but we will talk NBA with him next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:52
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:08
Edge Boost is the first ever bank account built for bettors, ensuring all gambling transactions are approved. No usage fees, no minimums. Earn cash back rewards. 100% approval for...
23:17
100% approval, that is, for all betting deposits. Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG. ANG as in A Numbers Game. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet.
23:32
You know who's, uh, using Edge Boost? Who's that? Carl Sack, everybody. No way. Yes, Carl Sack, who you used to know as the NBA guru over there with Dr. Bob. Uh, you can follow him at killersports.com, killercappers.com.
23:43
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, man? How you doing? Good morning, Gil. How are you? Doing very well. Edge Boost working out for you? Yeah, working smoothly. No issues. Good.
23:54
Um, I have a question for you here, and this is, you know, again, for new audience and SiriusXM 158, and by the way, for some of our older audience who are like, "I remember Carl coming on and doing releases and the lines would move," um, it's early in the morning.
24:08
The NBA today ain't what it was three, four years ago. Can you take us through your daily process? There's a slate of games. Do you start with this the previous night? Do you start in the morning?
24:19
Just walk us through that, if you would. Um, I started last night, uh, actually probably in the afternoon, um, going through, making lines for all the games, k- trai- paying attention to the injuries. Um,
24:34
and for teams that played last night, then going through their box scores. Um, I do some analysis on that. Um,
24:44
and, uh, yeah, then usually middle of the night, um, a lot of, a lot of my angles start populating in my database. Um, depends on whether or not the team played the night before or not.
24:55
But, um, it, it certainly is tougher nowadays with there being less certainty with injuries, but it's not, um... It, it's still doable. I mean, there's... You can still bet overnight, you can still bet, um...
25:08
There's, there's games today where we're, where there's not really much injury uncertainty.
25:14
Um, but there certainly is a lot more of those surprises where 10 minutes before tip-off, you know, some player that was never mentioned all day is scratched, and it's annoying, but at the same time- [laughs]...
25:24
it's also an opportunity for those that are prepared and feel good about their, um, ability to evaluate talent and how missing players impact teams to react and benefit. Okay.
25:37
When you say you're looking, you're looking at box scores- Yeah... from yesterday. What are you looking for? Like, let's act like we're talking to someone who is just on their first day of betting.
25:46
What are the, what are you looking for specifically?
25:50
Um, I'm looking for, uh, f- at first I look at all the minutes that all the players played to see if there was, uh, some, an abnormality in, in terms of what I expected, and if so, why is that?
26:00
Is it because they were in foul trouble? Is it because they got injured? Is it because the, maybe there's a new rotation that I need to adjust for?
26:07
Um, and then I just look at the, um, usually, like, at least the three-point field goal and, and free throw percentages and quantities. Um, did one team have an abnormal amount of free throws?
26:18
Did, did, um, one team shoot 25% from three when they attempted 50 of them? Um, which is just kind of a fluke in my mind.
26:27
Like, normally, yeah, some teams are shooting the low 30s, some teams shooting the high 30s, but I wouldn't expect a team to long-term shoot below f- you know, 30%, and so I might, when I go and g- grade the games, um, I, I'll make adjustments for those.
26:44
I s- okay, and so then to sort of clarifying what you were saying before about and then your, your angles start to populate.
26:50
You're talking about the fact that you have a database that ki- that automatically produces, that generates things that, uh, might be betting, um, betting sort of, um, interesting for this particular slate of games, like, "Oh, you should know that this team with this rest," that kind of thing?
27:09
Yeah, historical situations that have been profitable, um, you know, playing on a team that, uh, is coming off of an overtime game the night before and had to travel versus, say, a team that's been rested for the last couple of days.
27:24
Um, yeah. Does, does that serve to put you on games, or does that more, more often serve to take you off games that you might otherwise have played? Um, I would say,
27:39
if I had to guess, maybe I would lean a little bit more towards taking me off of games.
27:43
It, it, it's often that my power ratings will, um, be in one direction, and I'll have situations in the other, and I just have to kinda let it go. Um, but it, it can, certainly goes both ways. Okay.
27:56
Um, I don't, I'm not asking you to give away the farm here. I just wanna get a general sense. Yeah. Is there a team, 'cause in tennis we find this a lot, right?
28:01
In tennis, a tournament will start, and you'll look at the outrights. Um, and you'll see that the outright price is one thing, but then the way they are priced on a match-to-match basis is different.
28:12
Um, it's always very curious.
28:14
It's like, oh, you have them here in, in the outrights, they're, you know, they're a favorite, let's say, or one of the favorites, or they're a short shot, um, one of the shorter shots, but yet they sort of the, doesn't reflect that on a day-to-day basis, or vice versa.
28:26
Is there an NBA team or teams that sort of fit that bill, where you're like, "Oh, in the outright markets, they have this," but on a day-to, on a night-to-night basis, they appear to be under or overvalued by the market?
28:41
I, I think that that would be largely dependent on, um, a combination of scheduling, um, and more so just w- when they're resting their players and when they're not. You know?
28:56
Like you take Brooklyn as an example, and, um, sometimes they rest Cam Johnson. Lately, uh, sometimes they'll rest, uh, D'Angelo Russell.
29:05
Sometimes it's, um, Cam Thomas, and if you really pay close attention to when those are happening, it can make a massive difference. Um, I think Charlotte's probably another example. They've been resting Lonzo Ball.
29:18
He is extremely important to the total, at least, um, for them, and so, you know, it, he, it might be 210 one day, and the next day it's 230, um, and, and people that are just kind of not paying close attention to the, to who's playing, um, there can be a lot of variance there.
29:37
Okay, but no, no team that you find based on your numbers somehow is chronically or nightly wrong, p- mispriced in the market. It's, it's not, it's not that way based on your numbers.
29:48
Um, I mean, there's, there's some teams right now that I'm certainly looking to bet on that I think are undervalued. I, I would say The Knicks are probably an example now without Brunson.
29:58
I, I think that, uh, McBride and Cameron Payne are gonna fill in, um, nicely for him.
30:06
Um, and so I would say y- yeah, there's some situations like that where, uh, you know, because of things that have happened recently, um, I don't think that the, the public...
30:16
I don't think that the perception in the market is quite, uh, in line with, with what I- um, deem their team to be strength-wise. Okay. Killercappers.com, by the way, is where all of Carl's picks are.
30:28
And let me just say, when a text comes in from Carl, there-- you do get this little tingly feeling where you're like, "Oh, what is this? What is he doing? Is he doing a total? Is he doing a team total?
30:36
Is he doing a side? What's happening?" Uh, because, uh, Carl lifetime, uh, i- long term is just a tremendous proposition.
30:43
What, as you look at the slate, and it is a pretty hefty slate of NBA games tonight, as we're in the home stretch of the regular season, I think we can say that officially now with about a month left before the, uh, the play-ins are played, what's the best bet on the board right now?
31:00
I would say,
31:02
you know, I kinda spoke to the, the situation a little bit earlier and, and, and talked about the team as well, but I would say the Knicks, uh, minus two and a half is probably a- at Sacramento, um, I would say is probably the best thing on the board right now given the information that we have.
31:18
We know Brunson's out. We know Sabonis is out for Sacramento. Um, the Knicks haven't played since Friday.
31:27
Sacramento played a really a m- a tough game last night against, uh, the Clippers back and forth, ends up going to overtime. Um, they lose by a point at the buzzer on that Kawhi left-handed shot. Um,
31:42
they, uh, I, I think Malik Monk might be out for this game too. There's a good chance that he's out. Um, and the Knicks, they've lost a couple games.
31:53
Uh, they're hungry, and like I said, I, I don't think that that Brunson injury, um, is gonna hurt them from a overall power perspective as much as the market thinks it's going to.
32:05
And, and I think that the Sabonis injury's been kind of under- uh, undervalued in the market. He's, he's really important to that team. Nuggets-Thunder may be the marquee matchup of the night. You got anything on that?
32:16
Um, I did bet the under a little bit. I'm, I'm curious to see. I bet it at two thirty-nine. It's at two thirty-eight right now. I'm curious to see what the injury report ends up looking like.
32:27
Um, Holmgren hasn't played in back-to-back since he returned from his injury, so there's a chance that he sits.
32:35
Um, Gordon, I think, re-aggravated his calf in the game yesterday, um, so I'm guessing he's probably not gonna play.
32:43
There's a chance Joker doesn't play with that elbow issue that, uh, he got in the first quarter yesterday, although I'm guessing he does play.
32:49
But this is one where there are more question marks, and I, I think I'd like to see it shake out a l- see those injuries shake out a little bit better. And before you go, uh, LeBron with the groin injury.
33:00
Does the market tend to, uh, overcompensate for this kinda thing when he's out? So th- you know, it's-- he's been an interesting player this year.
33:09
H- h- his plus/minus numbers, the, his team's been better with him off the court this year, and it's not just the first month or two of the season when he was looking like he wasn't playing defense.
33:20
Even in this last 15 games, 20 games since, you know, they've been twenty and five or whatever, they're still better when he's off the court.
33:28
Now that being said, I think there's some players on their team like Darnell Finney-Smith, who's gonna be missing tonight, who's very underrated in the opposite direction, um, so I'm not necessarily rushing to bet against the Lakers tonight.
33:40
Got it. Okay. Thank you, Carl. Always fascinating. Appreciate it, man. Thanks for having me on. Carl Sack, everybody. Killersports.com is where you can check him out, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
33:51
Uh, Tournament Players Championship at Indian Wells, tennis and golf's fifth majors next.
33:56
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:12
And Carl Sack just releases the Knicks officially as a play tonight. Mm-hmm. Knicks minus two and a half.
34:18
Take your betting to the next level with First Bet, whether it's Santa Anita Gulf Stream or the road to the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. First Bet puts the action at your fingertips. Sign up now at firstbet.com.
34:28
That's the number one S-T bet.com. And use promo code VSiN200 to score a 20% rebate on all your wagers for the first 60 days, up to $200. Don't miss out. Bet smarter today at firstbet.com. So Carl Sack, uh,
34:44
teases it, if you will, and then, uh, during the break officially releases that to the clients. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback.
34:51
Dan Kuester, "Great job by Jim Root on, uh, Gil's show on the Omaha call. Also, Belmont making the final was good for me. Go Montana."
35:00
Garnett Barnsdale, "Hey Gil, thank your, uh, NCAA basketball expert for giving out this nice overlay on a numbers game," talking about Nebraska Omaha. He got it plus four-eighty in the Summit League.
35:10
Um, shout out to GV, uh, New Jersey/New York, once again for doing his championship formula. He has a whole spreadsheet where he does all the, uh, criteria and all the teams.
35:19
Uh, once again, the only three teams to qualify for week number three of the championship formula, Auburn, Duke, Houston. How about that? Ol' Tom Morris. Oh, we got one of these guys doing his- Ol' Tom Morris [laughs]...
35:30
Ol' Timey accent. Ol' Tom Morris. He said, "Mr. Gil, chuffed to learn that Mr. West will be hopping on to chat golf later. I'm curious if he fancies my premier selection this week, Daniel Berger."
35:42
We'll find out momentarily. Chuffed. Okay. Chuffed. Ben Handorf, "Last year I was on UAB twenty-five to win to win the AAC tournament, thanks to a numbers game, and we got there.
35:52
Will Hill had me on Queens to win the ASun at fifty to one, which almost got into hedging tory, uh, hedging territory," pardon me, "lost in overtime in the semis." Yeah, they were up 10 with six minutes left.
36:02
What we got this year? Arkansas two hundred fifty to one. Will Hill, Todd Wishnev, NCAA March Madness Megapod one week from today. Cannot wait. Wait, was Arkansas a bet, or is that just part of the tweet thrown out?
36:17
That's only part of the bet he-- that's part of the tweet that he just has. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Fool gave it out. Maybe he gave it out on By the Books this morning. Yeah, maybe. Abe Garcia. Abe Garcia's not happy with me.
36:29
"In regards to Rodgers not being a mentor or ungenerous, Jordan Love would like to have a word with you. Y'all have to stop this narrative that he's a bad teammate."
36:38
Okay, Abe, I'll grant you that he's probably a better quarterback mentor than I let on, but teammate? Yeah, we're gonna argue about that. Ask any of the New York Jets who said that he fed the ball to Davante Adams.
36:51
And, uh, by the way, the whole, "Oh, I can come back this year. Let me make my Achilles injury about me and not the team," stop it with the good teammate.
36:58
You're probably right about the quarterback mentorship, but let's not go with the full teammate. Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo, bruh, let me be the first to declare this my favorite day, week, month, season, year of the year.
37:08
This should save each guest on every show some time. [laughs] Also seems like that time of year for an appearance by a situational southpaw like Ben Wilson," uh, which we will have today. "Let's commode," he says.
37:19
I like it. Uh, Ben Wilson coming up on the show. Pittsburgh Billy, "Not a chance Rodgers goes to Pittsburgh. His political views heavily clash with Art Rooney's. Can you give a shout-out to Craig Wolfley who passed?
37:31
He was a 10-year Steeler offensive lineman that became a Steeler radio voice. He was loved in Pittsburgh." There you go, Pittsburgh Billy. Craig Wolfley, uh, with the shout-out. May he rest in peace.
37:40
NCI95Gambler, "Happy Monday, guys. Glad to hear you're back on the radio. Just wanted to ask one question for the golf expert on the show." That's you, Kelly. "What's up with Michael Kim?
37:49
I desperately wanna bet him for the Masters, and I can't, but who knows? That might save me some money." Striping it, Michael Kim is. Are you kidding me?
37:57
He'll be, uh, right back in my account for a top 20 bet this weekend. Okay. All right. He's, he's been awesome.
38:02
Um- And I believe he, y- uh, NCI95Gambler tweeted at me yesterday, but not qualified for the Masters yet, if you're looking for him on the board. Okay. Uh, we'll talk TPC here in a moment.
38:12
James Sott finally said, "Hate to do this, but I have to fade Coco today versus Sakkari. No way she should've won the previous match." I'm not on that match today.
38:20
Uh, Coco, I believe, was up 4-love third set in her previous match, gacked it, was up 5-4 serving, gacked it, was up 6-5 serving, gacked it, won it in a breaker. So I hear what you're saying, man.
38:31
Coco's had a terrible 2025 to start the season by her standards, though I did see her in the petting zoo. That was the other thing about Indian Wells. [laughs] It was fantastic. How was it?
38:40
Let me just, uh, yeah, let me just say it again if you missed it. It's the best sporting event in any, uh, any sport. Maybe the Masters beats it, but other than that, you can't top Indian Wells.
38:49
There's a, literally, there's, like, a field with all the players in it, right? Doing their thing. The hotel, the field, they're walking amongst you. These are the best players in the world.
38:58
Well, they're just, just in there signing autographs and stuff for people? Oh, no, they're working out. There's a weight room, outdoor weight room. They're out there- Oh, really?...
39:04
stretching with their physios on the field. Yeah. Oh, wow. Okay. Oh, it's incredible. It- So you do all that stuff outside. Bro, if there was housing inside the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, I would move there.
39:14
That's how much I love it. Can't believe they do it. Uh, what was the weather like, by the way? Was it cold? The first night was freezing, and then it was beautiful. Nice.
39:23
Uh, Arthur Middleman, "Appreciate all your tennis insights. I miss Dan Weston as a guest. Is he okay?" Thank you for asking. Uh, Dan Weston, I was texting with him the other day. Dan is great.
39:32
Dan ha- Dan doesn't have time to do tennis anymore. Dan became, like, sort of a Billy Beane in the cricket world. He's killing it with cricket, right? Yeah.
39:39
Killing it with cricket, and then, uh, on the side, he's got some other advantage play that he likes to do. Okay. [laughs] Which I'm not gonna get into. Okay, good for him. Yeah. Good for him. He's into it. Um, okay.
39:48
We, we, we'd book him for cricket, but Gil and I wouldn't know where to start. [laughs] Yeah, I wouldn't know. What about the wickets, or something like that. Okay. Um- Oh, boy.
39:56
Once again, uh, I added Carlitos on the men's side at, uh, Indian Wells to what is already a looking good, at least right now, halfway through the, uh, the third round, right, halfway through the third round, is it?
40:07
Yes, halfway through the third round. Um, they're all there. We're all, we- we're still looking f- to try to hit all the futures.
40:14
Um, we go to the old Sweet 16 starting tomorrow, if you will, to use March Madness, uh, parlance. But again, Ega to win, Ega to win her quarter, Benčić to win her quarter, Pegula to win her quarter. All live.
40:26
All live, and we added Carlitos here at plus 120 this morning to win the men's side. Um- Yeah, but some of the other dudes getting out of the way, Gil. This was... Y- you texted it over to me this morning.
40:35
I know a bet for you, but it, it even stuck out to me. Alcaraz still at plus money seemed... I don't, I don't know if it seemed short enough or adj- adjusted enough, so I might be joining you here this afternoon.
40:44
The only, I mean, the, the, you know, and Zach and, and Drew deserve credit for this on the, uh, on the Indian Wells Megapod.
40:50
The only other player that looks, like, really, really outstanding, I think this is all priced properly, right? Medvedev could sit out there for days. He's a backboard watching play of Ru- Mm-hmm...
41:00
you know, Chikadze the other night. Um, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. I had Berrettini yesterday. He destroyed Berrettini. Yeah, they were, Zach and Drew both on Tsitsipas, right? They, to win the quarter, they had him.
41:10
To win the quarter. And I've, I wanna say that, um, Zach also took a flyer on him to win it all. I think he did, yeah. I think he did. Yeah, Tsitsipas is playing great. Absolutely playing great.
41:19
But, uh, but, but, you know, no, no sweat there in, in terms of taking Carlitos 'cause I'll believe it when I see it. Carlos who has won the last two.
41:26
It is also golf's fifth major, sir, the Tournament Players Championship. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, this is, the Masters has the most, uh, course correlation from year to year.
41:36
The TPC has the lowest from year to year. Yeah, it's, yes, yes. It's up there. I don't know if it's consistently number one year to year, but it's right up there, yes. There's a lot.
41:46
So you can't, so you can't really put a profile on who you think's gonna win. Yeah, I mean, you could kinda, uh, look, y- you still need a kinda specific profile gol- golfer, fairway fighters, what you definitely need.
41:56
But, uh, yes, you are mainly right. You can, we've seen a lot of winners with a lot of different skill sets, uh, come to this course. Um, looking forward to diving in. We'll be doing long shots tomorrow on the players.
42:07
Uh, looking forward to diving in today, tomorrow a little bit more. Some, some of the odds that did just strike me as a little shocking is o- old Ludvig, who did not get anything done for me last week, but out to 20/1.
42:20
Uh, it, this is, when he does well with long irons and off the tee, this might not be the perfect course for him.
42:27
But like you're talking about, Gil, sometimes that, uh, we've, we've been able to throw that out the, the window. So I was a little surprised to see him at 20/1 this morning at DraftKings. Looks like he's come down 18/1.
42:36
That makes a little bit more sense. The other one was Andrew Schoffley being in the teens after Yeah, he looked okay yesterday, but struggling much of the week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
42:46
Um, coming off of, coming off that rib injury, he, he, he sure seemed affected by it to me still in the first couple rounds. So I, I- it's still gonna be a... Look, it wasn't a fade of Schauffele for me last week.
42:57
I don't know that it will be this week with any match-ups or anything like that, but definitely a stay-away and not someone that I'm looking to bet right now, and you know, a guy that I bet a lot last year.
43:05
Um, man, Morikawa, that was a tough one for both Morikawa and Henley, just the, the number of top 10s they had last year without a win, and kind of were down to head-to-head yesterday in that tournament, and Henley going and picking up the win was huge.
43:19
And, and Morikawa, I, you wonder how much something like that lingers mentally. You know, it's just, even last year, so many good finishes, but couldn't get a win.
43:28
Now you start off this year, and that's what you deal with, uh, in one of your first tournaments of the season. I, I wonder where his head's at.
43:34
I don't know if the, the pricing's probably a little too short for me on him. He doesn't strike me as the most mentally fragile, though. No, he doesn't. Yeah. No, n- not, not at all.
43:41
Um, but man, and it's just when you're that good of a player to not have won in this long and, and, and then kind of choke it yesterday, I don't want to say choke, Henley went and won that thing, but Morikawa, he could've done the same too.
43:52
He could've put a l- a l- a little bit more distance between him and the rest of the golfers. Um, nothing for me yet in the players, although that Lud- Ludwig price does stick out.
44:00
Uh, I did make a Masters bet though yesterday, though. Oh. Yeah. You have no bet on the TPC yet, but you do have a Masters bet. Nothing yet on T- uh, on Sawgrass.
44:07
The one Masters bet that I made, and look, this is, I think like what we often ta- talk with futures, I'm looking for a longer price I expect to be much shorter by the time Masters week is here.
44:17
Uh, I went in and bet Sepp Straka. Sepp Straka with another top 20 finish. This guy is just- On fire... on fire with the iron play right now. I mean, second to maybe only Michael Kim, as crazy as that sounds.
44:29
Uh, but I'm in on Straka who finished T15 at the Masters last year, so showed a little bit last year that he could do it, uh, get up the leaderboard. So I like Straka 100 to 1 over at FanDuel right now.
44:38
I learned that the hard way last week, final round, when I took, uh, Berger head-to-head against him. Mm-hmm. And then like the last nine holes, he just went ballistic. Yep. Straka the last seven holes.
44:47
Uh, we'll come back. Wes Reynolds, what has he bet yet, if anything? TPC and more next.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
