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Mar 14, 2025
A Numbers Game | HR 1 | 03.14.25
A Numbers Game | HR 1 | 03.14.25
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44:52
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Transcript
0:00
Work. The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:11
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM, channel one fifty-eight.
0:18
It's Gil Alexander, and my little buddy Kelly Billings out here with us today. Kelly, uh, uh, is off today.
0:24
He is going to a, uh, what is supposed to be, I hope the guy's not listening, supposed to be a surprise party for one of his friends.
0:29
But as Kelly said, uh, all the other guys invited are gonna mess up the surprise party 'cause they're all over social saying, "Hey, look, I'm in Phoenix," and the guy kind of noticed it already.
0:39
So anyway, the surprise party could get spoiled, but that's where Kelly is today. Uh, we will march on without him. It is a Friday. You know what that means. Falica and Fezzik will join us hour number two.
0:49
Chris Falica, who is in town for a horse racing handicapping tournament that he will tell us all about, of course, an annual trip that he does to try to win untold hundreds of thousands betting horses.
1:02
Falica will join us, as will Fezzik, two-time winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, uh, with all kinds of stuff on college basketball on the mind of Steve Fezzik.
1:12
He will have not one, not two, but count them three plays in early games here in college basketball. Today, uh, it was forty-eight games of college basketball yesterday.
1:23
I spent the entire day at the South Point betting with, uh, with Todd Wishnev, that whole thing. Today, it's thirty-eight games of college hoops beginning here early in the morning while this show is going on.
1:33
Uh, the American Athletic, Atlantic Ten, Big Ten, and SEC are in the quarters today, and then semifinals in the Big Twelve, ACC, Big East, Big West, Conference USA, Metro Atlantic, MAAC, MIAC, Mountain West, SWAC, and WAC.
1:46
All of that today, thirty-eight games strong in college hoops, so a whole bunch of college hoops, uh, hour number two. We'll see what Falica's got in that as well. Jason Weingart will join us this hour.
1:54
Paul Carr, uh, trying to bounce back. I think he had a bad, uh, last, uh, appearance here on the show. He'll bounce back with some Premier League picks. And then Mike Renner for some NFL draft talk, uh, momentarily.
2:06
Mike Renner, who, uh, now works at CBS Sports and who, uh, in addition to being a draft expert, at one time, uh, by the way, he's co-host of, uh, Push the Pile podcast, at one time was a contestant on The Bachelorette.
2:18
I'm being serious. He was one of the dudes, one of the dudes in the sort of scrum of thirty dudes. Is it thirty dudes on The Bachelorette? I have no idea. I need a ruling.
2:26
Um, [laughs] I'm being told by Savannah, the o- the one female behind the glass here, I don't know if she's the one female, but y- you understand what I'm saying. She immediately says, "Yes, it's thirty exactly."
2:36
So we'll see if Mike wants to talk about that.
2:37
By the way, just between you and me, if Mike doesn't wanna talk about that, that'll be the only reason why we don't talk about that, 'cause I'm more interested in that perhaps than I am in the draft, at least as interested.
2:46
Uh, okay, let's start with a couple things. Uh, w- let's start with the bad first. This tennis tournament keisterized me. Indian Wells just gets, uh, I don't know, worse and worse, but they're-- Let's put it this way.
2:58
This was not a good tournament by any stretch, match by match. Uh, didn't hit any of the two yesterday.
3:04
Went O and two yesterday on the picks, and the bigger news was that Belinda Bencic, our six to one shot to win her quarter, she goes down in flames against Maddie Keys.
3:14
Is that sixteen in a row or seventeen in a row now for Maddie Keys? I think it's sixteen matches in a row if I'm not mistaken. Um, but Maddie Keys is just, uh, crushing it.
3:22
She crushed Bencic, so we don't get home with that quarter. We did with the Iga Swiatek quarter, uh, so that's a winner for us.
3:30
And the only salvageable thing here for this tournament, and it is a salvageable thing, it won't make it a winning tournament by any stretch, but the only salvageable thing here is we do have Carlitos, which is not listed here on this graphic we're about to show.
3:41
We do have Carlitos to win Indian Wells, um, w- just in short plus money, uh, which we gave out, uh, gave out here on the show a couple rounds in. And then Iga pre-flop to win, uh, at four to one.
3:53
There's two, there's, semifinals are today on the ladies side, and they are two spectacular semifinals. Uh, Iga versus Mirra Andreeva. Iga Swiatek against Ir- Mirra Andreeva. Iga's about a minus one ninety-ish favorite.
4:06
And then, uh, Sabalenka, Aryna Sabalenka is about a minus one fifty-five favorite against Maddie Keys. I have no plays in either. I think those are properly priced.
4:15
Um, if you were forced to play one, obviously I, I would think it would be Keys as the dog against Sabalenka, but I'm not betting either of them.
4:22
I think those are more or less properly priced, as I do, by the way, as we head into the weekend for the men's semis tomorrow.
4:28
I think Daniil Medvedev is properly priced about a o- minus one sixty favorite against Holger Rune, and I believe that Carlos Alcaraz at minus three fifty-ish, as great as Jack Draper is, is properly priced.
4:39
So no more plays on the, on the matches here in the semis, perhaps thankfully. Hopefully Iga can salvage, uh, some of this for us.
4:46
To golf right now, again, The PLAYERS Championship, golf's de facto fifth major, Indian Wells being tennis' de facto fifth major. J.J. Spaun. You have any J.J. Spaun exposure?
4:57
Uh, it was a three-way tie, by the way, after, uh, the first round. J.J. Spaun, uh, Camilo Villegas, and, uh, Lucas Glover were all at six under.
5:07
Lucas Glover yet to tee off today yet, but as we, uh, start action here in round two at the TBC Sawgrass, J.J. Spaun already three under for the day. He is now nine under.
5:18
One stroke lead over Min Woo Lee, who is three under for the day through seven. Uh, he's at eight under, as is Rory, who's three under for the day.
5:27
So Min Woo Lee and Rory McIlroy, who were a stroke off the pace heading into yesterday, uh, they are maintaining pace with J.J. Spaun. So Spaun cannot, as, as great as he's playing, he cannot shake these guys.
5:37
Ashkai Bhatia, by the way, who's two under for the day, he is seven under for the tournament, so that's your leaderboard. Spaun with a one-stroke lead over Min Woo Lee and Rory, two-stroke lead over Ashkai Bhatia.
5:47
Again, early going, what is this? The equivalent of, like, early second quarter of a football game, so that's where we are right now. Much golf to be played.
5:54
By the way, uh, Scottie Scheffler, just as the s- the sort of notables, Scottie Scheffler right now five strokes back at four under. He is, uh, one under through five today.
6:06
And then Sepp Straka, who, uh, many of us have, Sepp Straka yet to tee off, I believe, today. Uh, he is still two under, yes, now seven strokes back, yet to tee off this morning. But obviously, whole bunch of work to do.
6:19
You don't want that field getting too far away from you.
6:21
Uh, to baseball, one of the things that we've done, 'cause we have so many guests here, wanna get this sort of vomit out the, the, a- any bets that have been made, and I have added once again to baseball.
6:32
So to review here in the past week, um, in the past couple weeks, because we'll go back to I had the Cleveland Guardians under eighty-two and a half as my favorite season wins, season-long season wins play of the entire season Uh, and then yesterday or the day before, I can't even-- Like, the, the days blend into each other.
6:49
But the day before yesterday, uh, I gave out the March/April bet that I made here at Circa, most wins March/April, and again, I went through a whole breakdown of if you're betting it at Circa, if you're betting it at DraftKings, it's March/April.
7:03
If you're betting it at William Hill, it's April. Then the tiebreaker rules are different, so I ended up betting at Circa, which is March/April, which has tiebreakers of fewest losses, followed by run differential.
7:15
I went with the Minnesota Twins at seventeen to one. Um, excuse me, at fifteen to one, pardon me, to win most, uh, wins to, to lead that leaderboard, most wins March/April.
7:26
Uh, I was asked on Twitter then, because DraftKings does such a great job of, of giving multiple markets. Many books do, but DraftKings certainly second to none when it comes to the offering, right?
7:36
The breadth of the offerings in terms of baseball, uh, bets that you can make, and they have a specific category that is to start s-to start the season.
7:46
So the most wins, for instance, in March/April, or in their case, uh, it's-- Yeah, in their case it's March/April. Uh, that's in under the, the MLB start of season category.
7:59
Um, so they have not only most wins March/April, but they also have, um, several categories, including the race to ten wins, and someone was asking me about this on Twitter yesterday.
8:11
Forgive me, I forgot who, who was doing it, but, you know, do I have any opinion on that? And as a matter of fact, I was scouring through these because you can do-- There are many ways to bet this. By the way, most wins
8:20
in the division till the end of April is also a bet that you can make.
8:25
But the bet that I did actually make is the race to ten wins, and when talking about the Twins in my March/April, uh, sort of talk, um, the other two teams I mentioned as, as ones that I'll be watching, so, you know, try to get past these teams, the Red Sox also a, a viable case can be made for them for most wins March/April, as can be the case with the Mets.
8:47
And how I started with all of that, Twins, Red Sox, Mets, is how many games, who's playing the most games against the White Sox? In the case of the Mets, who's playing the most games against the Marlins?
8:57
Well, race to ten wins for me, and I might even like this better than the most wins in March/April, is the New York Metropolitans at seventeen to one.
9:08
That's the bet I made, race to ten wins, New York Mets seventeen to one. Now, the dealio with this is that the Mets do start the season, uh, with three games at Houston.
9:22
So let's say, let's just play devil's advocate here. Let's say the Mets go one and two at Houston to start this season, so you're behind the eight ball to start. But what happens after Houston is the following.
9:34
At Miami for three, that again, a team lined at sixty-three and a half games for season wins. Then it's three home games against Toronto, and then back to three home games against the Marlins.
9:47
So your six games against the Marlins are all front-loaded, and if you need more wiggle room after that, it's at the Athletics. Remember, we're not allowed to call it the Sacramento Athletics. At the Athletics.
9:58
So besides the first three games at Houston, and there isn't a lot of margin of error here, I get it, but once you get through that, and let's just again assume one and two, at Miami, home Toronto, home Miami, at Athletics, giving the Mets race to ten wins at seventeen to one at DraftKings.
10:16
Uh, that bet was made, uh, this morning here before the show, so I'm in on that. Now, I haven't made bets in these categories, um, but these are also available to you.
10:25
But if I was gonna make a bet, here's the sort of suggestion, and this is most wins by the end of April per division. So the three teams I just mentioned, uh, Red Sox in the American League East,
10:37
Mets in the National League East, and the aforementioned Twins, who we have in the, in the monthly category, most wins in the AL Central. That's by the end of April. All three of those, by the way, are in plus money.
10:49
Uh, I'll give you the exact numbers, uh, that we had, uh, this morning on those, because to me, all of those are playable, but again, just for clarification's sake, I have not played them.
10:57
The Twins are plus one sixty-five, most wins by the end of April, AL Central. The Red Sox plus one eighty, most wins, uh, by the end of April, AL East. And in the NL East, the Mets are plus one seventy.
11:09
That again, is a division. Those are division categories. And then you can actually do just over-unders by the end of April for every team in baseball and just sort of dovetailing with the Twins monthly bet.
11:21
Uh, the Twins over sixteen and a half at minus one fifty would be my favorite bet there. But the bet I added, the Mets, the race to ten wins at seventeen to one. Give me that. And I did get it, so there you go.
11:38
That's the third bet. So Cleveland Guardians under season win total, uh, Twins March/April, and then the Mets race to ten wins. Gotta love baseball for these reasons. Mike Renner on the NFL draft next.
11:50
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter?
12:09
Start with smarter insights.
12:10
Right now, you can check out articles like Nigel Seeley's weekend Premier League best bets, Greg Peterson's best bets in college hoops, Lufan Accaro's UFC Vegas one oh four picks, and later today, you can check out Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Josh Applebaum's CBB, that's college basketball, CBB for the cool kids, sharp report on college basketball.
12:28
Steve Makinen's NBA analytics report. Get access to all the articles, vsin.com. It is free. Did I mention that? Free through Selection Sunday. That's this Sunday. Vsin.com/champweek. Check it out.
12:40
Skill Alexander on a Friday. Fezzik and Felika still to come on the show. Um, this is fun. Let's talk some NFL draft.
12:46
More than a month away from the draft itself, but we haven't actually had a guest on the show to discuss it yet in terms of where he sort of feels things are headed.
12:54
Uh, Mike Renner kind enough to join us from CBS Sports. Uh, he's an NFL draft analyst over there, and he has a podcast where he's co-host of the Push the Pile podcast.
13:02
You can follow him on Twitter @MikeRenner, R-E-N-N-E-R, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, he comes to us now. How you doing, Mike? I'm doing great. Thanks for having me on. Appreciate it.
13:12
Uh, let's get to the important stuff first before we get to the draft. You were once, sir, a contestant, I think that's what we call them, a contestant on The Bachelorette, the, the, uh, the beloved show.
13:23
Obviously, there's The Bachelor, but you were, and then there's The Bachelorette franchise. What season of The Bachelorette were you on? I was on season 14, so that was, gosh, seven years ago now.
13:34
So, so you must have been, like, 12 years old at that time. It's seven years ago. [laughs] So let me, uh, here's what I really wanna know about this.
13:41
Um, first of all, was it a g- how, how would you describe the experience? Was it a, was it a great experience? Did you enjoy it?
13:47
And the main thing I'm interested in is, were you truly trying to woo the Bachelorette, or did you become disinterested in it at some point? [laughs] So it, it was a good experience.
14:00
It, it really gave you a peek behind what, like, reality TV is, um, which is not so much reality, but definitely, um, definitely, like, a crazy, uh, experience on the whole.
14:12
But in terms of, like, I was open to finding love, but the weird thing is you have to sign a contract going out there before you know who it's gonna be.
14:20
So you're like, "Yeah, I wanna find love with a person that-" [laughs] "... I have no clue who it's gonna be." Yes. So you can, obviously, you know, not everyone's gonna be your type.
14:29
So when there's, like, 20 guys saying they love her two weeks in, uh, I think some of them are lying. You think? Yeah. Um, and how quickly did you get bounced, if I may use that harsh word, from the show?
14:43
So I was there two weeks. I got two roses, so- Okay... you know, I held my own. Two roses. You held your own. That's exactly what you did.
14:50
But you make the point, and I won't belabor this anymore, but you make a point in there which I think is the key one, 'cause the biggest sort of reality type show like that these days is, uh, Love is Blind on Netflix, and the whole time I'm watching it, I'm going, "Love isn't blind.
15:02
It's not blind. It's not blind." [laughs] That's the problem. So you, so that's the thing. You would never go on a show like that, would you? No. Yeah. No, I'm also engaged here.
15:11
Well, then you really- So there's no need anymore... then you really shouldn't, Mike, just between you and me. [laughs] You should probably steer clear. Well, congratulations on that. Uh, let's go- Thank you...
15:18
let's go to the NFL draft. Thanks for, uh, thanks for being open about that. I'm, you, you're not one of these guys who's like, "I don't wanna talk about that. I'm past that."
15:25
Um, number one pick, let's start in the obvious place. Um- Mm-hmm... where do you stand on this right now? Does it feel like Tennessee will keep it? Does it feel like Tennessee will trade it?
15:34
And if so, is Cam Ward justified either way at minus 295, or is that not a good price then? Yeah, I mean, it's gonna be Cam Ward one way or the other.
15:45
I, I have full confidence in that, even if it's just, like, the Browns going up and swapping for the number one overall pick. But
15:52
the Titans would be silly to sit at number one and take a non-quarterback when there are teams that would want a quarterback, as we've seen historically, like the value you get from a trade.
16:02
So I feel very confident it's gonna be Cam Ward.
16:04
I, I don't feel as confident it's gonna be the Titans, but if I had to put money on it, I, I would bet right now it's the Tennessee Titans that just stick there and pick Cam Ward.
16:11
Okay, so if, if the Titans do stay there, they take Cam Ward.
16:14
So this kind of talk we've heard in the last couple weeks here and there, where it's like, "No, oh, the Titans are interested in Abdul Carter," um, you don't buy into that? They might be.
16:25
I mean, they very well, it's, a lot of teams are interested in Abdul Carter. The guy's awesome. So I mean, it, it is kind of like a,
16:32
you know, a bit, somewhat similar to 2017 when the Browns had the number one overall pick, where there's a Myles Garrett sitting there.
16:38
And if Myles Garrett wasn't sitting there, you know, Deshaun Watson might be a Brown right now i- if there isn't a guy who's elite sitting there.
16:44
But I think Cam Ward, what he did this past year, and just how teams have sort of steadily increased how they value quarterbacks, someone's gonna pull the trigger on that guy at number one. Okay, so Cam Ward minus 295.
16:56
By the way, Abdul Carter plus 230, Travis Hunter plus 850.
17:00
By the way, speaking of Travis Hunter, and again, there's so many ways to bet the NFL draft, and as the years go on, these, uh, prop markets are, uh, you know, available earlier. And by the way, let me just say this.
17:11
I probably should have started with this statement, I'll, agree or disagree. At one time, and by at one time, I'm meaning as recently as a year, maybe two years ago, this was a cash cow ATM for bettors, right?
17:23
We looked forward to the NFL draft, and we would c- we would consistently go 12 and one, or eight and O, or seven and one. Like, it was a complete ATM machine. It's not that anymore, right?
17:35
Is, is that kind of your feeling on this? I think they've learned to just adjust quicker, um, to the market and that, and basically find out who the sharps are in the NFL draft market, 'cause it is. I, I agree.
17:48
There are, uh, there is information out there that, a- and just your eyes, [laughs] if you're, if you're good at this, that you can tell where guys are gonna go at the end of the day.
17:57
So, uh, yeah, it used to be, but I think they have, again, found out, uh, how to adjust quicker to where the markets are going and move those lines faster. I've mentioned Travis Hunter.
18:06
You can also bet which team will draft Travis Hunter. This is a widely available prop. Patriots are plus 125, Giants are plus 320, Browns are plus 450, and the Titans are five to one in this.
18:18
Right now, by the way, the draft order for those who don't know at the top as it sits now, Tennessee one, Cleveland two, Giants three, Patriots, Jacksonville rounding out the top five.
18:28
Is there a bet which team will draft Travis Hunter, in your opinion? It, I mean, I agree with Vegas there that I do think it's New England, just the way it's gonna shake out in those top four.
18:39
I think Carter goes for Hunter just 'cause the position of value. E- everyone wants defensive linemen over, you know, a skill position.
18:46
But then you're kind of banking on the Giants there being the team that goes quarterback instead of Travis Hunter. A- and they very well could, uh, and especially given their free agency signing a cornerback.
18:57
They have a first-round cornerback, and so signing a wide receiver, basically Hunter doesn't make sense for them anymore. So I think it's a very good shot that Hunter is on the board there at four.
19:06
Uh, a- and I don't think they'd pass on him at this point, just because I mean, they need both those positions. They could use a corner, or they could use a wide receiver there in New England.
19:13
Yeah, so this is where it gets interesting because, you know, another category is first non-quarterback selected. So right now it's, again, in order, Tennessee, Cleveland, Giants, New England.
19:24
Uh, Tennessee, Cleveland, Giants, New England. Obviously, New England is not quarterback thirsty, but the other three are, right? The teams with the top three- Mm-hmm... picks are.
19:32
But if there's a trade, I guess the assessment for first non-quarterback selected has to be is it within those three? If it's within those three, then maybe Tennessee.
19:40
I mean, here's the thing, first non-quarterback selected, Abdul Carter's minus 550. Whether that happens in the top three or outside of that, um, this is the assessment you have to make.
19:51
Abdul Carter minus 550 from Penn State, Travis Hunter's three to one, everybody else 13 to one or longer.
19:57
How do you think, uh, first of all, do you think it's Abdul Carter, and then how do you think this shakes out then, one, two, three, four? I do.
20:05
I've been, I mean, for months now, ever since the season ended, ever since that Notre Dame game where he was, you know, playing through an injury and still took over that game, I just feel like that guy is what you want at defensive end position.
20:17
A- and again, teams will draft defensive line before a corner every day of the week, before wide receiver every day of the week. So I, I still expect it to be Abdul Carter.
20:26
One, two, three, four, I, I mean, best bet right now, given what happened in free agency is Cam Ward, Abdul Carter, Shedeur Sanders, uh, Travis Hunter. That's how I'd see it going down.
20:36
Those are the two top position players in this draft class, uh, probably the top two quarterbacks in this draft class.
20:41
The, the only thing that could throw a wrench into that is, again, just people passing on these quarterbacks. After Cam Ward, I could see teams just saying, "You know, I'm gonna wait.
20:50
I, I don't have a massive difference in the grade between someone like Shedeur Sanders and someone like Jaxson Dart who could be available in the second round."
20:57
So that's the only thing that could throw a wrench into that. But, uh, I do think position-wise, it's gonna be Abdul Carter, then Travis Hunter, your first two guys off the board that are non-quarterbacks.
21:06
All right, who's the first offensive lineman that goes?
21:10
This one's tough because I think a lot of people said Will Campbell, um, up until the combine, and then I, I think a lot of people came out of the combine with his wingspan and with his arm length thinking, you know, maybe he's a guard.
21:21
Um, so I like Armon Memmou if I had to put money on someone right now, the Missouri offensive lineman. I, I think there's a good chance he just ticks a lot of boxes.
21:31
He's really young, ascending player, uh, and he's a tackle. A- and for teams in the top 10, those teams that are in the market for an offensive lineman, they don't really need guards, they need tackles.
21:40
And so I, I think Will Campbell, there are just, they have more question marks about him staying a tackle than Armon Memmou. All right, Armon Memmou minus 135. He is the favorite right now, but it's close.
21:51
Will Campbell plus 125 from LSU right there. Kelvin Banks Jr. from Texas at plus 370 for first offensive lineman selected. Before you go here, 30 seconds here, Mike, uh, free agency, where does Aaron Rodgers end up?
22:03
Where does Russell Wilson end up? I wish I knew. I, I, I wanna know. I think, gosh, I think one ends up in New York, one ends up in Pittsburgh. [laughs] I, I think- Not your middle... I think right now- Yeah...
22:19
Rodgers in Pittsburgh, Russ in New York is, if I, if I had to guess, that's how it shakes out. Rodgers in Pittsburgh, Russell in New York. Um, that's probably what it feels like, yeah, or Russell in who knows where.
22:30
But yes- Yeah... that's what it feels like. Now I'm curious if you had any, uh, different thought, but that's what it is. Why is Rodgers taking so long to make his decision?
22:37
None of us have any idea, 'cause he's Aaron Rodgers, for God's sake. Thank you, Mike. Appreciate it, man. We'll remember that one. For sure. Thanks so much for having me on. Have a good one. Mike Renner, everybody.
22:45
@MikeRenner, R-E-N-N-E-R, on Twitter, from CBS Sports, NFL draft analyst. We appreciate it. Thanks for, uh, sharing the Bachelorette stuff as well. What a life. Coming back with Paul Carr.
22:54
I'm not sure he's been on The Bachelorette, but we'll find out. That's next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:30
Check it out, the financial platform for smart bettors. That was, uh, Paul Carr, uh, clearing his throat, by the way, in the background, in case you were wondering how I was able to clear my throat while talking.
23:38
Uh, we'll get to Paul here, uh, momentarily. We get tweets of Beating The Book, always appreciate the feedback. I'm gonna Ron Burgundy my way through some of these. This is from, uh, let's see. Do, pa, do, do.
23:47
Oh, J, uh, GV at New Jersey, New York, who's been tracking our college basketball formula, uh, with a spreadsheet.
23:54
He says, "A special ANG investigation can confirm that we have a fourth team formula compliant for now, as Iowa State here midweek has crept in." So that's not an official inclusion of Iowa State.
24:06
We will do it, uh, Monday, the day after Selection Sunday. But right now, as of this moment, we have a fourth entry. Iowa State, uh, will qualify for the tournament as well.
24:17
LasVegas514, "Yo, I definitely can see you, Gil, on The Bachelorette. Find out, [laughs] find out from Mike Renner if he agrees. Apologies to s- to fashion stylist Debra Song." Uh, yeah, no, I'm, uh, I'm 100 years old.
24:29
I don't think they'd want me on The Bachelorette, quite frankly. Uh, nor would I want to go, I think, at this point. Liam Friend, "Just tried to tail your Mets race to, uh, to 10 bet at DK. They limited me to 70 cents."
24:41
Oh, Liam, that's not good. Whatever mule account we use didn't limit us. Frankie Vegas, "Love the show. Thanks. Could you ask Fez when he's on to explain the proper formula when laddering bets and props?
24:54
Please have him use light math. I failed second semester of calculus." Okay, we'll try to get to that, Frankie.
24:58
Uh, Steve at New York- Football Giants 42, "As a lifetime Mets fan, this is the most excited I've been for baseball since I was in college. I just tailed the 10 wins bet. What could possibly go wrong?"
25:10
Nothing whatsoever. Nothing at all could go wrong. Jack in a Prius, "Love waking up to a win, the bankroll, the day ahead. Thanks to Todd Wishnet for the rare pre-flop pick yesterday."
25:19
Uh, Oklahoma plus three and a half in the first half yesterday against Kentucky. They, uh, they trailed by two, so he got that done, uh, sweated that out with him. Uh, also finally giving Kelly a well-deserved follow.
25:30
He looks exactly like I imagined. Can't wait for the Monday show. I'll be a pants off dance- it'll be a pants off dance off, is what Jack in a Prius says. Pants off dance off, look forward to that.
25:40
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is always moving the chains with us over the long term when he's betting soccer. Not, however, a former contestant on The Bachelorette, I apologize.
25:49
It's Paul Carr, everybody, from True Media Networks, and the host of the Expected Value Podcast, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Paulie?
25:56
Jill, there was a time when I was a lonely 20-something and was interested in applying to The Bachelorette, and that did not happen, and I'm very grateful for that.
26:05
Did you really consider it at one point, to apply, really? Ah, you know, it's like, you know, looking around to see if they had one of those open casting calls anywhere within a, you know, couple hour drive or something.
26:14
Oh, man. They did not, and- Good for you... I didn't, was not willing to drive any further.
26:18
You know, the only thing that I applied for once, you remember when ESPN, I don't know if you remember this, ESPN had a reality show called Dream Job. Do you remember that, when they were looking for- Yeah. Yes Yes.
26:27
So they had, I remember they had a cattle call in San Francisco, and then I happened to be at the- Yeah... I happened to be at LA when they had the one in LA.
26:34
And when they s- and this, by the way, Anish Shroff, people know Anish Shroff is one of the play-by-play announcers that ESPN has. He does college football.
26:41
I, I don't know if he does college basketball, but he does, definitely does college football. He ended up, from that show- Yeah... being a lifelong ESPN guy. And there's some other guys who made it from there. Yeah.
26:50
Anyway, I went to the, uh, the one in San Francisco [laughs] and the one in LA, and they break you up into these little tables, and they do these things. And I had the same- Uh-huh...
26:57
uh, I had the same blonde girl that hated me in both, so I was, [laughs] I was done quick. She was like, "Oh, you again." I was like, "Oh, you again." Ah. Yeah.
27:05
Anyway- So I, I applied, I applied for Dream Job, but it was, I had just graduated college and just started doing a local TV and radio gig, so that was enough professional experience to disqualify me- Oh...
27:18
and I was very upset about it. Yeah. Nah, you'd have been a good Bachelorette contestant, though. Definitely. Um- Ah, eh. Yeah.
27:25
Uh, Charles in Connecticut wants to know, "Did Todd Wishnet refuse to come in for an eight-minute segment today?" He did, as a matter of fact. That's why w- that's why we, we don't have him scheduled.
27:33
Uh, okay, Paul, you are where? You are in Arizona still, spring training? I'm in Arizona, in the car. We're heading to meet with our last client of the week. An NL West team, I will tell you. Mm-hmm.
27:44
Have a, have a good meeting with them this morning. Does it rhyme with the Hodgers, by any chance? No? No, no? M- maybe. Okay. All right. Um, good for you.
27:54
So, and again, for those who missed Paul's last appearance, 26 of 30 teams use your stuff at True Media Networks? That's correct.
28:02
And I, and I, uh, I guessed one of the four that, oh, and Paul can't confirm or deny, but I, I made a guess on the Tampa Bay Rays, uh, as one of the four that didn't, figuring they like their own analytics and the way they do things.
28:13
Um, okay, to soccer. Uh, not a good Champions League performance midway? No. No. What happened there? No, uh, I mean, I could blame it on the second leg. I could blame it on some bad luck or just bad ticking.
28:25
It's a little of all those things. So- Yeah... well, upward and onward. Upward and onward. Let's go to the Premier League. Tomorrow and Sunday, what do you have tomorrow?
28:34
All right, we're gonna start with Nottingham Forest to beat Ipswich Town minus 105. Forest is one of the best stories of the Premier League this season. They are third in the standings.
28:43
Uh, they're in line for a Champions League spot right now. Uh, briefly, they were actually an odds-on favorite to make it. They were minus 105, minus 110 for a bit. I think they're around plus 125 now.
28:53
Uh, but they just kind of get things done, especially against these newly promoted teams, which they've done all season. They've won all four matches there. Uh, I think they go to Ipswich Town and do it.
29:02
Ipswich is gonna be relegated. They're just not Premier League quality this season. It's just how it is for the newly promoted squads. And Forests, again, take care of business.
29:11
They want to score early and hold on to that one-nil lead the whole time, so I think they'll do that again. All right, so that's the first one. That's tomorrow. Nottingham Forest, this is very English sounding.
29:20
Nottingham Forest- Yeah... with a win over Ipswich Town. Doesn't get any, it doesn't get more, uh, English than that. And then Sunday, uh, Arsenal Chelsea has a pretty big match this week.
29:31
Uh, you have a total play on this. Yeah, this is the rare minus, or two and a h- over under two and a half, it's minus 110 on each side most places. So you can obviously make your argument either way.
29:42
I like the under, because basically you're either gonna take Arsenal's defense, which is the best in the league and maybe the best in Europe, or Chelsea's attack and general openness.
29:51
They have had the most expected goals in all their games this season, uh, from a total perspective. So I think Arsenal comes out better here. They have advanced to the Champions League quarterfinals already.
30:03
I just think their defense is solid. They will be very happy, kind of like Forests. Give us a goal, and we'll just kind of pass you to death and hang on to the ball and not give you a lot of opportunities.
30:12
Uh, Chelsea wants to have more chaos kind of at both ends. I think Arsenal's style wins out here. So I like under two and a half at minus 110.
30:20
Arsenal right now second place in the Premier League table, Chelsea in fourth, so they would both be, uh, they would both be Champions League sides at this point. But Liverpool's running away with this. I didn't realize.
30:31
A 15-point lead- Yeah... with about nine games left in the season.
30:36
Yeah, the last three, four weeks or so, it's just Arsenal's struggled and dropped points when they shouldn't have, and Liverpool's just taken care of business. And yeah, the title race is very much over.
30:45
They could clinch in, I forget, like three or four weeks if things go their way.
30:49
I would ask the, uh, the valet guy, the Arsenal fan, the valet guy in my building that I always refer to, the, the defeatist Arsenal fan- Yeah... but he crashed a couple cars, or not crashed, but he s- he, like- Ah...
30:59
he messed up a couple cars, so he got fired, so I can't ask him anymore. Oh. Sorry about that. I, I hope that wasn't related to Arsenal. No. [laughs] I hope not. Maybe.
31:07
I should have done a whole investigation on it to see if it- Yeah... followed Arsenal losses.
31:12
All right, so Nottingham Forest to beat Ipswich Town tomorrow, then Sunday Arsenal, Chelsea under two and a half goals, and then Leicester City and Man U also a total play here.
31:22
Yeah, we're going over two and a half in this one. A little juicy, minus 130, uh, is my price. But you've just got two bad defenses here. You know, Leicester is, again, they're going to be a relegate also.
31:32
Uh, their attack, not that great, but it's generally been a little better at home, like most teams. And Manchester United, again, defense not good. Bruno has been carrying them offensively.
31:42
He had a hat trick in Europa League yesterday. So I just think there's gonna be goals. It could be a three-nil Man United, it could be a two-one type of game.
31:49
Either way, not really sure, but I think this one will be fairly open, and with a couple of loose defenses, we should see some scoring here. Okay. So, uh, two totals on Sunday.
31:59
The Arsenal, Chelsea was under two and a half goals. Leicester City, Man U over two and a half goals, in addition to the Nottingham Forest play tomorrow. Those are Paul's, uh, three-pack of picks.
32:07
Let me just ask you one historical question before you go here, Paul. Um- Yeah... Man City, most points ever in a Premier League season in 2017, 2018. We actually remember it, uh, from being here on VSiN.
32:17
We were already a network at that time. Um, that's not gonna be threatened this year. Uh- No... but at the bottom, the fewest points ever scored in a Premier League season, uh- Yeah...
32:29
Der- Derby County in 2007, 2008, had 11 points. 11. Hmm. That's it. Right now, with 10 games left, Southampton has nine. They're not gonna set the record, are they? I don't think so. I think they'll pull a win out.
32:47
They got a, a few easy match-ups left, relatively easy match-ups left the rest of the way, and some of those teams won't be playing for anything.
32:54
And I would imagine, you know, sometimes a team gets relegated and they just nail it in, but I would imagine that point total means something. You know, we don't wanna be the worst team ever.
33:03
Let's, and they only need a win or obviously three draws to get there. That's right. So I think they'll get there at some point. They're 223 and three. Is that good? Ooh. 223 and three. So it's- Not, not great...
33:12
three points for each of the two wins, and then one point for the three draws, so that's exactly right.
33:16
They need either one win or, [laughs] or three draws to, uh, not set the, the, uh, the record that they don't want to be setting at the bottom of the Premier League table. Interesting.
33:26
Um, and of course, the relegation, they are at the, uh, top of the heap in relegation, along with the aforementioned Leicester City and Ipswich Town sides. Paul, thank you. Appreciate it as always. You bet.
33:36
Have a good weekend. Paul Carr, Senior Director of Media and Business Operations at True Media Sports. That's a hefty title. And of course, the host of the Expected Value podcast with a three-pack of picks.
33:46
Premier League, by the way, all of these, in case you missed them, we'll recap them at the end of the show with our G Bank Best Bets. If you missed that, subscribers, vsin.com/picks. That'll be there.
33:55
Jason Weingarten on the other side. All his bets next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:13
Y'all will not believe the text I just got. You will not believe this. I have to read this first, though. VSiN betting splits free right now until March 16th.
34:20
You can see our exclusive betting splits from Circa and DraftKings Sportsbook, two of the most respected names in the industry.
34:26
See the percentage of bets versus handle on every game across major sports to make smarter bets. That's VSiN's exclusive betting splits free through Selection Sunday at vsin.com/champweek.
34:38
Seriously, you're not gonna believe this text. I was gonna read tweets, but I wanna read the text first. This is from Steve Fezzik.
34:42
Steve Fezzik, who was just listening to our, uh, our show here, and he heard the, uh, segment with Mike Renner, who was on The Bachelorette.
34:49
And Stevie, you know, he's a, I don't know if you know this, he has a robot brain. He'll be with us later.
34:53
Um, he, uh, you know, he's talking about all kinds of sports betting stuff, and then he casually throws in, and I mean casually, he goes, "Gil, I was on Love Connection in 1993," the TV show.
35:04
So I think he's joking, right? And I'm like, "You weren't on Love Connection." And he starts talking about other sports betting stuff. But I don't care what he's saying about the sports betting.
35:10
I just wanna know, were you really on Love Connection or not? He said, "Yes, I was on Love Connection." Is this a j- oh my, how have we not known this? This is a whole segment with Stevie coming up.
35:21
He goes, "I was on Love Connection, and Chuck Woolery hated me." [laughs] That's a shocker. Didn't, didn't think that was a favorite or anything. "And my date really liked me." I'm sure she did.
35:32
Uh, Karen, [laughs] even says her name. I don't even know if I wanna say her name or not. Uh, Karen Eskajian, uh, in August of 1993, a young, a young, uh, sleeveless, I'm sure, Steve Fezzik on Love Connection.
35:46
How have we never talked about this? Oh my God. That's the top of the show when he comes on a little later. Uh, Jason Weingarten and Chris Velika in between that and Fezzik. [laughs] That's awesome.
35:56
Uh, "Chuck Woolery hated me." Huh, what a shocker. Uh, we had tweets at Betting The Book. Uh, Loser Larry, uh, "Mike Hall won that show, Dream Job on ESPN, right?" Yes, he did.
36:08
Mike Hall, who later went on to be on the Big Ten Network, I think, most famously, right? Is he still on the Big Ten N- Network? He might be. But Mike Hall, uh, Anish Shroff, they, uh, they had whole careers from it.
36:19
Uh, Call Me Rod, "Hi, Gil. Can you please ask Jason Weingarten when he's on for an NCAA basketball futures pick?" I will ask him that. He goes, "Jason is my man for all things future. You great. Rod from Michigan."
36:31
You great too, Rod. Thank you for that. Uh, we will ask Jason about that. I will momentarily. Cheap Prop Bets, oh, this is a great comment.
36:37
He goes, "You and Paul Carr need to admit that you landed in a much better place than ESPN." I absolutely think I landed in a much better place than ESPN. I mean that. 100% I mean that.
36:49
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, please ask Fezz," [laughs] I can't ask him anything besides the Love Connection stuff.
36:55
He said, "Please ask Fezz what his stomach felt like yesterday," oh, this is good, "uh, when Duke went down double digits yesterday against, uh, Georgia Tech and Flagg was being rolled away in a wheelchair."
37:05
Remember, yes, uh, Fezzik went money line on Duke yesterday. So I will ask him how he felt. We'll get an honest answer from him. Rick Olier, "Chelsea... quote, "likes chaos on both sides," unquote.
37:17
Sounds like the CEO of, uh, BDubs describing his restaurant. Uh, [laughs] that's from Rick Ro- uh, Rick Rollier.
37:25
And then, uh, Buddhist Man, previously on The Bachelor, says, "Todd Wishnev took the ladies back to Pittsburgh to meet his mom [laughs] and tour the cork attic before a quick jaunt down- downtown to Rivers Casino for an ever, uh, for an evening of live betting the Colonial Athletic Association men's [laughs] basketball card."
37:41
That's exactly what he would do if he were on, uh, The Bachelorette. And then Greer, yeah, this is gonna start with these, goes, "Fez on Love Connection in '93. Today will be a good day."
37:50
We had, do we ha- can we get footage of old Love Connections? Does this exist if this is true? Like, I know Flatter was some on game show, but Fez on Love Connection is the Holy Grail.
38:00
Uh, Vinnie was on Letterman once, Vinnie Maliula from the South Point. We got that footage. But Fez on Love Connection is the absolute pinnacle.
38:07
Uh, Jason Weingarten, the aforementioned Jason Weingarten joins us right now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
38:11
You can follow him on Twitter, @spreadapedia, and he comes to us from under a cloud of smoke, of course. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. How's it going? Doing very well.
38:19
You've never been on a, on a show before, have you, a game show or a Bachelorette or anything like that? Can't say that I have. [laughs] "I can't say that I have." Could you think about it a little longer?
38:29
No, still no, still haven't been on one? Um, what about this question we get from somebody, says, "Can you please ask Jason," Call Me Rod says, "Can you please ask Jason for an NCAA basketball futures pick?"
38:39
You're his man with all things future. What you got? I don't have a single college basketball future this year. I wish I did. Um, couple times I was close to taking Kentucky.
38:51
Couple times I was close to taking some futures on UConn. But, uh, honestly, I got, got nothing for, uh, college basketball futures.
39:00
Just been one of those years college basketball-wise where I didn't find anything exciting, and I never, never really got going. Wow. What's happening to you, Jason?
39:09
Is the older, more, uh, calm version of Jason Weingarten? Very selective these days. No, not at all. It's just, uh, sometimes you don't find a good bet- Yeah... you don't make the bet. But, you know, I, I love betting.
39:21
I'll make, I'll make 100 bets if there's 100 bets to make.
39:25
Um, well, it's interesting because, yeah, it's, it's, I, I do sort of the opposite of, and I think Fezzik and I are gonna get into this, about, uh, folks who have tons of different futures plays, which is a pet peeve of mine, but I kinda keep my mouth shut about it 'cause it sounds like you're going after people when you talk about it, but we'll get into that, uh, with Fezzik on the other side.
39:42
Baseball. I added another baseball, Jason. Let me, let me think. Uh, I, I haven't talked to you about what I bet.
39:48
Uh, in addition to the Guardians under, I bet the, uh, the Twins most wins March, April at s- at, uh, 15 to 1. And this morning, I added the Mets race to 10 wins at 17 to 1. You making any start of season bets?
40:03
I asked yesterday if anybody was gonna put up a most losses for the first month of the season. Oh. But there's some gaming regulations preventing that from being put up, you know, in different states.
40:16
So, um, I was actually, like, we, we had talked a little bit about the Marlins last time I was on, and I've been kinda looking into it a bit more because I think I'm convinced, or I've convinced myself, that the Marlins are gonna be the worst team in baseball this year and not the Chicago White Sox.
40:35
So I'm looking for some ways to try to exploit that, especially if they trade Sandy Al- Alcantara. Uh, I just don't see where the talent's gonna come from this team. Like, this is, this is not a good team this year.
40:49
It doesn't mean they're not building things and they're not gonna be good.
40:52
Like, we just saw with Baltimore, I mean, Baltimore's a great team, but it took three, four seasons of them being, you know, absolutely terrible to get to, to where they have a sustainable level of success.
41:04
So, you know, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Marlins be absolutely terrible for another season or even two seasons.
41:11
So I'm, I'm really focusing on the Marlins a lot right now, trying to get money down on, uh, anti-Marlins stuff.
41:19
Well, my Mets to 10 wins, first to 10 wins, is really an anti-Marlins bet 'cause they, they play all six of their games early in the season in that first stretch of games.
41:28
Again, excuse me, all the- Well, that's a great, that's a great bet because you- Yeah... you potentially have, you know, several wins there. Yeah.
41:35
No, I mean, I, I even assume, just for the purpose of the exercise, that they'd go one and two against Houston. Let's just say they go one and two. They might not.
41:42
But let's just say they go one and two against Houston to start. Then it's six out of their next nine against the Mets. I mean, against the Marlins, pardon me. So, like, you're off and running at that point.
41:53
You know, if you, if let's say you go one and two and then five and one, I mean, you're, you're in the driver's seat. And then it's the A's after that. So there's a Toronto series in between there.
42:04
But that's, you know, that's the point. I'm, I'm with you on that. An anti-Marlins, how can you exploit? That's what you should be thinking about with these baseball bets 'cause there's so many different markets.
42:12
How can you exploit all your different handicaps? And that dovetails nicely with what you were just saying about the, uh, Marlins. Uh, have you added anything, uh, any sport since the last time we spoke?
42:23
Yeah, I, I started doing a little more baseball stuff.
42:25
Um, I wanna point out as we get a little farther along in spring training, especially the next week or so, uh, past the opening day in Tokyo, that by the end of spring training, a lot of times teams have their rotations and their bullpens kinda worked out.
42:43
So as you're getting through the last turn of games at the end of spring training, don't forget that guys are gonna get their full workload, but that also means that relievers, you know, if you go out there and have a bad game, you're not necessarily gonna get pulled for another reliever because that means wasting somebody else's throw day.
43:04
So a lot of times this last, uh, last turn through spring training, you're gonna see, you know, a guy get left out there to kinda just kinda take it if he's having a bad day.
43:14
So, uh, you know, keep that in mind, especially with live betting.
43:17
You're gonna get a lot of opportunities to get a lot of runs scored late in these games 'cause nobody's gonna come and take out, you know, a pitcher that's not making the team or somebody that's already made the team, et cetera.
43:29
Um, so that, that's something to keep in mind. But as far as bets go, um, Roku Sasaki, if you haven't noticed, he's gone from 60 to 1 to 30 to 1 for NL Cy Young. I think the value is still kinda there.
43:44
I mentioned last time, if you look at him at 60 to 1, there's a lot of guys ahead of him that don't really have a chance to win and that he's a very live arm. So, uh, keep an eye on him.
43:53
I think, I think there's a guy who not only could win Rookie of the Year but could be a potential Cy Young guy. We're gonna be talking so much about him once the season starts, but, uh, don't, don't sleep on him.
44:05
He really is one of the best prospects to come into baseball in, in quite some time. So how are you specifically betting him? Oh, I'm betting him Cy Young over, uh, Rookie of the Year.
44:15
I don't, I don't love the two to one for Rookie of the Year. I don't, don't think there's a compelling case to be made to, to bet that, um, preseason. But Cy Young, I added him.
44:26
So I currently have him and Sandy Alcantara for NL Cy Young. All right. Jason, appreciate it. Um, thank you for that.
44:34
You, you didn't come through for my man, uh, the Call Me Rod with a college basketball future, but I'm sure he'll understand. Thank you, sir. I'm sorry, Rod. I'm, I'm really sorry.
44:41
I just don't have any college basketball to give out. You know I would if I could. Yeah, I'm sure he appreciates the honesty on that. Thank you, Jason. Enjoy. Um, Felika, Fezzik. That's Chris Felika next
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