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Mar 13, 2025
A Numbers Game | HR 2 | 03.13.25
A Numbers Game | HR 2 | 03.13.25
00:00
44:52
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Transcript
0:00
Network. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's my little buddy Kelly Midlin back here.
0:23
Uh, Toddy scared you away for a little bit, but you're back. That's right. Nice to have you. I had to exit to give him room, yep. Yeah, mm-hmm, well, appreciate it. Um, we get tweets at Beat The Book, "One man wolf pack.
0:34
We need more Wishnev. Please start Wishnev Wednesdays ASAP." Roger Jones at Bronco Wins, "Not sure if one or both of you deserve credit, but that's just smart radio. Leave them wanting more."
0:43
Charles in Connecticut, "Conference tourney week is the only time of the year that I may go three days without showering." [laughs] I think that is a good point. I was kind of thinking the same thing when he said it.
0:53
And then Steve Fezzik tweeting about our, uh, our, uh, group, uh, text exchange with, uh, Will, Todd, me, uh, him, and Chris Felica.
1:02
"Just five guys kicking ass [laughs] on their daily journey to winning money betting sports and a lot of politics. That's helpful, Toddy," he says.
1:10
I don't know why he's, uh, I don't know why, I don't know why Fezzik decides to, to tweet out things like that just randomly. [laughs] It's like, "Hey, just wanted to let you all know."
1:17
Uh, and LFC Title Records, "There may have to be a strategically dropped burrito bowl at the Orleans tonight in order to keep Todd's streak alive." I was thinking about going to the Big West, where, uh, [smacks lips]
1:29
uh, UC Riverside is playing. Maybe we'll, uh, watch some, uh, Big West tonight or tomorrow if they advance.
1:35
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, you know him, uh, as being in studio each and every Thursday as part of, uh, Unscripted with the Crack Man Bill Krackenberger, but sometimes he can't be in Las Vegas, but he's still kind enough to join us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from South Florida.
1:49
It's Bill Krackenberger, Unscripted with the Crack Man. No intro. Hey. No intro when he's remote, by the way. That's all right. That's all right. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry about that. Maybe I didn't give you- Bill, you look-...
1:58
man enough heads up. Bill, you look great. You're we- you're well lit. That's a, where are you, in your hotel room?
2:03
I'm in the hotel room, and, uh, I just drew the shades and just to get the sun, the Florida sun out here. Where are you specifically? I am in a Hard Rock in, uh, Hollywood. And why are you there?
2:15
I'm getting ready, I'm jumping on a plane though. I'm coming back today. Um, I was here because I had some futures to cash, which I found out, even though I bet them in Tampa, I can actually cash them here in Hollywood.
2:29
But, um, yeah, I, I was planning to cash them. I had some pretty big tickets from last April. And, you know, I wasn't thinking it's a year from the day of the event, when the event finishes.
2:41
So I had some season wins over under some futures. So I, they didn't expire in April, they expire, you know, six months from January and, or a year from January, but I wanted to get them out of the way.
2:52
I wasn't planning to bet anything, but opportunity presents itself.
2:56
And let me tell you, I know some people say they get limited here, and I get it, but at the counter, maybe 'cause they're futures, they took some very large bets from me.
3:07
Put it this way, I expected to be going home with cash. I actually had to give them cash in the end. That's how many futures I bet. You care to sh- Uh, I bet over, over, over... do you care to share s- Yeah...
3:15
do you care to share some of those futures with us? Sure. Uh, this is sick, Gil. I, I, the first bet I made was like 5,000 on each, and they didn't move them.
3:24
So I went to the counter for about 3,000 more on each, uh, uh, on each. They still have not moved them. So, um, Minnesota, let me see, Minnesota to n- to not make the playoffs.
3:36
Well, I should look at the tickets really fast. We're talking, just to clarify, we're talking about baseball here? Uh, baseball. Yeah. Yeah.
3:41
Yeah, the Twins no playoffs minus $1.20, and the Red Sox to reach the playoffs, yes. So yes on the Red Sox to reach the playoffs minus $1.15. Uh, I would've laid a little bit more, by the way.
3:54
Uh, so, so yes, yes on the Red Sox to reach the playoffs, the Twins no playoffs, uh, minus $1.20. And you know, I also bet Florida State in college football under seven and a half wins.
4:07
And I seen that a couple other places though, so, uh, I just wanted to grab it since I was here under seven and a half. And, uh, I, I'm actually gonna probably bet some more on that, even minus $1.20 is fine.
4:19
So that, they were, they're the three I bet, um, total- Wow, personal attack at Kelly Midlin, Florida State alum. Oh. Personal attack. It's tough times in Tallahassee, I understand it.
4:28
Uh, th- crack for B- Bill, for, for the, for the new audience at Siri- new-ish audience at Sirius XM 158 that might not be familiar, uh, with your, your handicapping process, can you explain how this works for you?
4:41
'Cause you, you, you surround yourself with folks. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that was, uh, I, I hope he doesn't mind, that's one of my sharpest guys that I deal with, uh, that gave me those, uh, those three.
4:53
And, uh, yeah, so I used to do all my own handicapping for years. We, we won, my partner and I, from back in Jersey.
5:00
However, now I just find some of the sharpest gambling syndicate groups in the world that, uh, maybe need to get down some money. Maybe they can't get down 8,000 a play here at Hard Rock.
5:12
Um, and to be real blunt, I put up the money for a lot of this stuff too. So it's nice to be able to have, uh, you know, someone that puts up most of the money, and, and, uh, you know, this is what?
5:25
Uh, it's gonna be a year some of these tickets aren't gonna... You know, I shouldn't say that. The end of next college football, December. So literally 10 months from now.
5:34
Uh, it's nice to have someone to put up money for 10 months, so I'll do that.
5:38
But certain situations I will actually, you know, um, put up money, uh, I'm, I'm sorry, g- put up mutual money for, for both of us or whatever it may be, or three of us, what- whoever. It depends on the sport.
5:50
College basketball, there's three of us apart, that are partners. So i- it depends on the sport how many people are partners.
5:56
So it may sound like big amounts of money, and the only reason why I mentioned the money today is because I was pretty happy with these amounts here at Hard Rock.
6:05
And I've heard some, not really nightmares about these books, but I heard if you're sharp at the counter and you keep on betting stuff that moves, you have to do it tactfully.
6:15
You have to do it so, uh, it doesn't look like you're just betting steam or major line moves or... They have kiosks here.
6:22
I don't know really the result- I really don't know a lot of people that bet here, but I was told they have the kiosks here and, you know, you're betting and betting and betting, and if you keep on trying to circumvent limits, just go to the counter, see what they take.
6:34
Listen, I was shocked that, that they took what they did from me. Um, like I said, I had some tickets to bet off of.
6:41
I figured that was gonna be enough for the three bets I was making and, um, so one, one of my guys knew I was down here.
6:47
He said, "Hey, these are really good opportunities on these, these three plays," and- Let, let me- Here we go...
6:52
let me, let me ask you about college basketball this time of year, 'cause I know famously when we've talked before, I say, like, what sport at what time of year has traditionally been your, your most profitable?
7:01
And if I remember, the most common answer that you always gave on that was early season college basketball. Yeah. November, December. Through the years, that has been the real strike zone. We're here in March.
7:12
Uh, obviously conference tournaments, you know, we got four days left of them, really three and a half, quite frankly, and then it's Selection Sunday before the big dance. What is your volume now?
7:21
Has it completely tapered off? Is it, you know, are you still in some volume and it's next week that it tapers off? Explain. Yeah, good, good question here.
7:31
And yes, college basketball was always bread and butter for years, however, NFL props have been really good. NBA props have been really good. Now, they're smaller markets, so you can't... Y- I say smaller.
7:41
They're smaller than getting down an NFL game or a college game or an NBA game, and this particular year, yes, we've had a winning season, and people have struggled.
7:50
Some of the sharpest gambling syndicates in the world that typically beat college basketball have struggled to win.
7:58
I, I'm really blessed that we're actually up, uh, for the year, 'cause it's getting tougher and tougher each year.
8:05
Before I came here, I was in Foxwoods for a day s- uh, with Alan Boston, and I, I went and had a, a meal with him, and even Alan was saying, you know, how tough every and every year is.
8:16
However, he had a good season the beginning of the season, and his last couple weeks have been a little rough, but he's still having a winning season.
8:23
And, um, you know, the March Madness, yes, I like betting that first round, even the second round, but it tapers off as it gets deeper and deeper into the big dance. Uh, I'll bet less and less.
8:35
You know, I bet a lot of first halves. I've talked about that. As a matter of fact, you know, so we're not gonna be on till next Thursday when games are going on.
8:42
Uh, I'll tell you right now, on that Sunday night, I'll be in Vegas with my computers and, and have my s-... Oh, man. There's probably nothing better than getting to some of those lines at the beginning with my guys.
8:56
Um, you know, it, it's a shame because it's only one or two sports books that put up the lines and, you know, it's one or two originating sports books, and everyone copies those lines.
9:06
I actually wish I had access to some of the books back east, because it seems like to me, the DraftKings, the Fanduels, um, a- a- they put the lines up first.
9:16
I, a- a- and in Vegas, I noticed Westgate was putting the lines up first for the, uh, NFL playoffs and stuff. So I'm hoping some of the, maybe...
9:25
South Point was putting up lines first for a while there for y- years back and letting people get at them for reduced juice. And also, Gil, now that I speak about that, uh, of the old Hard Rock, which is Virgin.
9:38
Virgin, day of the game, I'm sure you've talked about this earlier in the week, Virgin has zero juice. You can bet up to 3,000 bucks. They wanna introduce their sportsbook to people. Yeah.
9:49
$3,000, no juice, even though it's the day of the game, which is kind of, I don't wanna say an efficient market for this college basketball first round, but later rounds it is. But hey, no juice?
10:00
How many opportunity, o- opportunities will there be for guys that middle and hedge and have those marketplaces, whether it's two, three, 3% juice?
10:10
Um, I expect to see some other people over at Virgin, I'm sure, uh, day of the game, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, zero juice. I, I hate to even give them any press. Whoever runs their socials is s- s- so stupid.
10:23
Oh, I was, I was just gonna bring this up. I, I re- I didn't know about this. I was just gonna bring this up. As, so we hadn't- Right... we haven't brought it up earlier in the week- Oh... but I saw just- Okay...
10:31
I've, I saw it twice now, that they have no juice at Virgin. Yeah. And I, and I thought, I think you were about to say this, how is this not more publicized? Right. [laughs] Oh my gosh.
10:41
I, I, I retweeted it, and it got, like, oh, maybe 9,000 views. I retweeted it for the people to know. You think Virgin's social media would say, "Hey, Bill Krackenberger's retweeted this."
10:51
Not that I'm anybody, but I'm retweeting something. You got, you know, almost 10,000 views. You think you'd retweet it or say thank you or something. No, nothing. Crickets.
11:00
So a lot of times these people, they work for companies. They steal paychecks. That's what they do. They're stealing a paycheck. They're told to put something up.
11:06
They have no pulse of what's going on in the industry or on the casino floor, uh, but yet they're in charge of the social media for a casino corporation.
11:14
Don't ask me how it works, but, uh, listen, I have a buddy there at, that actually is a big executive. He's the one that texts me, "Hey, Crack, we're having no juice on our March Mad..."
11:23
I said, "You, you don't believe, you won't believe how big of information this is," and yet it's not really being talked about.
11:30
To be able to bet up to 3,000 bucks on a game, no juice, oh my God, that's unbelievable, even day of game. Wow. I may have to walk back into my old stomping grounds. Yeah. I have so many follow-up questions about this.
11:41
We'll get- That Bill knows no problem... we'll, we'll get to those follow-up questions that Bill may not have the answer for, but Kelly's gonna ask him anyway.
11:46
On the other side, Crack Man, Bill Krackenberger, right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game BSN, the Sports Betting Network Numbers Game back from Circa, Circa Resort & Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
12:12
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling. College basketball has already started for the day. 48 games, baby, and we are underway. What is Wishnev complaining about? He's watching it already.
12:22
I, I mean, is he like, is he right behind us? No, he went back to wherever he's go- he came from. [laughs] But, uh, we'll figure out a place.
12:27
I do like that, I do like that you made him drive all the way from the very, very [laughs] south side of town to all the way up here just for a segment. I didn't make him do anything.
12:35
By the way, he was well-dressed once again for the segment. [laughs] You may have noticed. Um, by the way, uh, tur- the Players Championship, a little update here for you. Yeah, let's go Aaron Rai.
12:45
Uh, the early going, of course, at the Players Championship, golf's de facto fifth major, the PGA Tour's major, if you will, at TPC Sawgrass. Uh, early going, uh, you know, for some.
12:55
Vince, we have a four-way tie at the top of the leaderboard. Vince Whaley, Lucas Glover, Aaron Rai, and Bud Cauley all at three under. I've got a first-round leader taken on Aaron Rai, so that would be nice.
13:06
Ooh, uh, Aaron Rai through seven. Yeah. We have a four-way tie at three under. You know who's one back, though, among those at two under? Sep? Sep Straka. Let's go. Let's go. I, I wrote it. I got you to win.
13:18
I, I have him to win it. Yeah, you made a bet, right? I did, at 50 to 1. There we go. No, not 50 to 1. 40 to 1 we got. 40 to 1, Sep Straka. It was heavy- Let's go... heavy golf mo- uh, movement this week.
13:29
Uh, the players, I, I mean, Sep was, uh, for the difference between odds that you could find in Vegas versus East Coast books- I had to m-... night and day... I had to mule it. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
13:39
Did, you know, Boyd, I think this was a screw-up. I brought, did I bring this up yesterday? Uh, uh. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Boyd, Boyd had him listed [laughs] at 15 to 1. Oh my God.
13:46
I think it was a screw-up with them copying FanDuel odds that they put a one instead of a four, but still. Yeah. Now I'm curious what I ended up with. I think 45 to 1 or something like that. Yeah, that's right.
13:55
Wasn't quite 50. Wasn't quite the 50 you got. 'Cause yeah, here, here, come on. What are we doing? Uh, Bill Krackomberger joins us from the East Coast again. He's, uh, down at South Florida.
14:04
Um, you can follow him on Twitter at BillKrackman with a K. The name of his podcast is Wise Cracks with Bill Krackomberger. Uh, he won't be with us for the full hour when he's remote, but he, we will do one more segment.
14:14
Did you have follow-up questions for him on the, what we were just talking about, uh, no juice over there now? Yeah, I, I, I got the answers for you, yeah. He's got all the deets. He's got all the deets. Yeah.
14:22
All right, what's the deal? Well, all right, so here's what you need to know. NCAA tournament basketball games only, no juice, same day, pre-match or pre-flop, like Bill says, point spreads.
14:33
Your max bet up to $3,000, all no juice. You need a rewards card too. You need what's called a Cherry Rewards card. It's free. You know, it's just their, their player card. So it's from 8:00 a.m.
14:44
till 9:30 p.m., and this is only for, it's showing right now March 20th, 21st. If this goes over well though, they'll probably extend that. Um, listen, like I said, it do- And you know, it's funny.
14:58
During the break we were talking about, uh, some of the places in town that have reduced juice throughout the season in town, and even I think South Point may have 105, which is fantastic.
15:06
South Point does 105 traditionally, yeah. One, 105, oh man, how, how cool.
15:11
I'll just tell you, you know, I, I, if you, if they do it right, they're looking to acquire informa- information from people, maybe get their email, maybe get their s- you know, their player card, send them a little offer in the mail.
15:25
If it's done right, the, that, this, this casino here, Virgin, I also said to, uh, Gil during the break, this casino has alienated a lot of their players like me. I used to always go in Hard Rock. I met Gil- Mm...
15:38
in this casino- Mm-hmm... originally. This was the place to be. I do not go anymore. They have terrible video poker. Uh, the, the way it was run, I think Mohegan was running it.
15:48
It's funny, Mohegan in Connecticut has some decent video poker, but for some reason they had none there that was good. They still have some good shows at the joint.
15:56
But for me, and I'm gonna even speak for Gil, this is like Bill Buckner walking into Shea. [laughs] So [laughs] we just don't, we don't go in there- Too many ghosts... uh, that often. Too many ghosts.
16:07
Too many ghosts there. Uh, w- I hope it's done right, I really do. Um- So clarify this for me. So BetFred wa- did have the sportsbook there. I don't know if they ever got licensed, but it's not BetFred anymore.
16:17
Who's, who's running this now? Wow, this is a great question. It says Cherry Rewards. I'm thinking that the Virgin brand, and I don't wanna misspoke, misspeak here. I think the Virgin brand is running- Mm...
16:30
the sportsbook now. Oh. So this is gonna be new to them, and- Okay... you know, uh, no juice, that's gonna be...
16:36
You know, remember where I think, was it, didn't Circa do that when they first opened on something like three bets per person? I know my buddy Randy was there, all the...
16:44
Uh, it was like, I think they had no juice the first day. I think Circa lost about 150,000 at a, at a 3,000 max bet. I'm sure someone on Twitter or maybe even Randy, Randy's listening, um, they could text me.
16:57
I think Circa did that just the first day, one day. That was enough for them, by the way. Yeah. And I don't blame them. I understand it, you know. You have a lot of overhead staff and it's just a promo to get people in.
17:07
And, uh, we talked about it a little. I think we talked about it on our podcast. Randy's been a great addition to my podcast with John Orlando this year.
17:13
We filmed it last night and it's up now on, on my YouTube channel, uh, I, I Crack Wins. But, you know, I tell you, Gil, I hope this goes over well because I hope it's just more than those two days.
17:25
I hope it's more than that. And oh, what I was saying was, we talked on the break, the reduced juice in town, you know, it's gonna be shocking for our listeners, yes, 'cause they're astute listeners.
17:35
But most people really don't care. [laughs] Most people- They'd rather play-... don't care. Yeah. [laughs] They'd rather sit home on their ass and say, "Ah, I'm not driving down there." Yep. I only bet 200 a game.
17:46
Meanwhile, they bet 11 games, and instead of laying an extra $200 in juice, they lay no juice. But I'd rather- You know, just play with my one or two apps and- Well, for- So people really don't care.
17:57
[laughs] Yeah, there's two things, right. You're right. We've talked about this before, like, you know, w- i- it's when, when, uh, I'll give an example.
18:03
When you give out some, some sort of insider stuff that people get mad at you, right? Like other sharp bettors are like, "Oh, Bill, you shouldn't say that on air. You shouldn't, you know, you shouldn't give that away."
18:13
W- we always say this, it's amazing you'd think that, right? You'd think the instinct ought to be not to give away X, Y, and Z on the air.
18:21
But 95, 98%, pick your percentage of, of bettors will hear this, they'll nod, and they'll still go about their way and they won't even sort of act on it.
18:31
The other thing about going back to this, this promotion that they're doing, just from a macro Vegas standpoint, for those who have, you know, come to Vegas through the years, and obviously March Madness is th- the most popular week to come, uh, through the years generationally.
18:45
Uh, it's just such a wonderful atmosphere here.
18:47
And I do wonder, you know, we w- with now it being a state-by-state thing, sports betting, Nevada is its own ecosystem, and so Nevada doesn't feel competitive pressure to innovate in the sports books, right?
19:01
Oh, so what if the East Coast books are offering all these different things? Nobody here is, so why should we bother doing it?
19:06
But if something like this were to catch on, right, something like this were to catch on and it were to persist, i- at some point it would have to sort of spread, right?
19:17
Well, I'm, we're a long way from that happening, but this might be a start. Maybe. I don't know. In theory. So I just like that- Very good... somebody's trying something. Let's put it that way. Very good, Gil. Yeah.
19:25
We, we need the competi- Listen, even though we love the sports books there, and we love it when, uh, I'm able to bet, oh my God, it's just so nice.
19:32
Imagine if it's just, okay, it's nice to be able to bet, 'cause l- so many people, you know, so many sports books and even in the v- they don't let me bet. So it's so nice to be able to bet.
19:41
However, that being said, we still need the competition. Yes, we need the DraftKing, the FanDuel, we need these sports books in Nevada. We need competition so other books are forced to catch up a little bit.
19:54
Right now, you know, we always say it, you know, "You're all just our guests." I mean, [laughs] they're- That's right... right now they run the town. They run the town. They're not letting no one...
20:03
You know what it is too.
20:04
They're not letting another Cantor Gaming come to town and try to take over, you know, w- with their, with their, uh, their fancy suits and, and take over the whole place and, and wind up getting fined all, you know, $35 million or whatever they got fined.
20:19
And I'll tell you though, Gil, um, not only do we need the competition for us, we need the competition in general for all the regular players, the regular people, not just talking about us sharp guys, just the regular people that, the locals, the locals that are getting eaten up alive, maybe laying 11 to 10 on everything and just betting their crazy bet.
20:40
We need it for them also. Um, I, I, I, you know, I, I try to speak out for Joe Public and, and try to, try to help everyone here.
20:47
Listen, um, Chris Felike is also on our text, you and I, and he said he likes the FSU bet under also. And that's another thing you just said, Gil. You just said that, um, you gotta be careful saying things.
21:00
Now, even me, I just gave out three plays. I probably don't know if I should've said 'em, but you know something, Gil, people don't wanna tie their money up for 10 months. No. They have much, they need their money now.
21:11
No one's tying up any significant amount of money for 10 months or, or six months, but it's nice to have a baseball future to root on all season long.
21:21
So I'll be rooting on the Red Sox, you know, to, to make the playoffs. Like I said, I, I'll be rooting on 'em all season long.
21:27
Every game, every day, pick up a pap- pick up, well, there's no more picking up papers, but- Every day you have action, basically. Every day you have a little bit of action. Yeah.
21:33
Rooting for one, not rooting for the other. Well, no, but it's- It's really fun... it's a great point what you said because obviously baseball, you know, you gotta wait six months.
21:40
The regular season is six months, so you're, you know, it's what's the macroeconomics 101. There's an opportunity cost for every dollar that you're, you know, is, that is tied up.
21:49
You can't use that dollar to make money, uh, in the meantime.
21:52
And then there's the other sort of like gambler sort of psychology thing where y- for your accounts, do you ever get annoyed that when you, when you go to your pendings or your, you know, the things that are still open, that those just sit there for six months, and at some point people get annoyed.
22:05
They're like, "Oh, clear this out finally." You know, with it. So there's all kinds of little, you know, it's the economic one, it's the annoyance of something like that. But baseball season longs, right?
22:14
Baseball season wins are still one of the most tried and true markets because it's a really, truly good handicap where if your handicap is good, you can overcome negative variance and still win.
22:25
You can't say that about a lot of other bets. So that's why I still swear by it. Uh, Bill, we got- Yeah, Randy, R- Randy just said up to 10,000 they took at, um, uh, at Surf opening day, up to $10,000 shoes three.
22:37
Whoosh. Wow. Back in the day. I remember that day. How cool. Yeah. How cool. Yeah. Uh, Bill, thank you. Enjoy your trip. No problem. Safe travels back. I'll be back. Thanks, guys. Bill Krackenberger- Take care...
22:47
@BillKrakenman with a K. Ed Thang joins us with his college basketball plays from the power rank. Man is a PhD. He's got a big brain. That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:57
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Okay, we cannot emphasize this enough. VSiN is free until Selection Sunday.
23:13
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23:31
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23:43
That's V-S-I-N.com/champweek. No cost, no commitment. Kelly's looking at me like- Free... like at an event. So, uh, so I thought you were waiting for me- No... on something.
23:55
I'm reading through the, the extreme details of the Cherry Rewards program at Virgin, so. Oh, what did, what'd you find out? Anything new?
24:01
No, I, I mean, it looks like they are angling this towards locals a little bit more. Yeah. And there are, uh, there are some things in here that are pretty impressive.
24:09
They are gonna be doing a free slot tournament next weekend as well, so if you're into that- Okay... get over there with the, the no juice. Is Wayne Brady gonna have to walk back into the Hard Rock?
24:18
I, I was thinking about, uh, I know Fezzik and I were texting and, and bothering you by attaching you yesterday about some of the rewards program stuff. Oh, that was riveting.
24:25
The one that's always cracks me up that they offer, like e- every casino in town, is like spa stuff. Oh, yeah.
24:31
And I'm like, I'm always thinking about, like, dudes like me, how often we're hanging out and playing video poker, and it's like, "All right, let me go to the spa now." [laughs] The spa. Give me a massage.
24:40
Lucas Glover takes the lead at the Players Championship, four under. Cool. Through 10. One stroke lead over Hosler, uh, K化 and, uh, Tom Hoge as well. Aaron Rai in there as well, uh, and Chris Kirk.
24:54
Two back, included in that group, Jordan Spieth. I'm sure he has nothing to say about it. I'm sure he's quiet as a mouse. I almost bet him this week too, Gil. Oh. I, 'cause I can't bring myself to do it.
25:04
Can- I can't do it... does golf need Jordan Spieth? Do we need more Jordan Spieth, or is Jordan Spieth at this level quite fine for you? Uh, for me it, well, I, I'm the wrong person to ask.
25:14
He could go away, and I'm completely okay with it. Yeah. That's why I'm asking. Yeah, I, like, I think people think he's good for the sport, so- Yeah... sure. Okay. Uh, I'll tell you what's good for the sport.
25:22
Ed Feng, ladies and gentlemen, he is the, uh, the founder of the Power Rank. He is, uh, a PhD. His brain is bigger than all of ours combined. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:34
You can follow him on Twitter at The Power Rank. Uh, Ed, good morning to you. How you doing, man? I'm doing great, Gil. Thanks so much for having me on.
25:43
Um, for, for those who are unfamiliar with you, uh, I always like to, uh, hype up the fact that you, uh, what was your PhD? Could you give the subject of your PhD again, your thesis?
25:53
It was the kinetic theory of liquids and polymers. Sure. Sure. How liquids move, how molecules move- Yeah... is, is what I, uh, ended up doing my thesis in.
26:03
And then you ended up, like, doing c- At- And then you ended up doing, like, college basketball brackets. Let me ask you a question, Ed.
26:09
Do, do, do the parents, do the parents ever say to you, "You know, Ed, we think you should do some other stuff with your life"? Do they ever say that to you?
26:18
No, I think they understand how, uh, pained I was in the academic world and how it really didn't fit me. I think they see that I'm pretty happy doing what I'm doing now, and, uh, I think they just let me be on this one.
26:30
That is, those are- They're lucky about that... wonderful, wonderful parents. That's beautiful. Supportive. Oh, man. That's lovely. Yeah. Uh, okay.
26:38
So, uh, you are, now we'll get to some brackets here momentarily because you, are you gonna do anything with bra- Well, let's do that now. Are you gonna do anything with brackets this year?
26:48
Yeah, I'm gonna be doing the same service that I do for members of the Power Rank, and then, uh, it's actually available as a separate product on my site.
26:55
But I give you my complete bracket advice, um, you know, basically what to fill out in your pool, uh, what choices you should make for champion based on the size of your pool, and this advice has worked out for a lot of people in past years, and I'm really looking forward to doing it again.
27:11
Okay. And they can find out all that information at The Power Rank on Twitter, I suppose, is the quickest way for them to go, or go to thepowerrank.com. That's a good way. Yeah. Yeah. Okay.
27:19
But you're also betting college basketball sides these days. How's that been going for you? I mean, I've had an incredible week. I can't complain. Um, I would tell you the record, but I don't wanna sound like a tout.
27:30
But things have been going pretty well, and hopefully I can explain a little bit why I think it's been going well. Okay. Well, why? Why has it been?
27:37
Well, I think a lot of the people out there with the modeling is, uh, I mean, there's, there's a lot of models that are way more specific than what I do. Well, a lot more detailed. Um, you know, I'm using box score data.
27:51
Uh, they're using a lot more complicated stuff. But one thing that I incorporated into my model is market data, and I found this to be a very predictive aspect of any sport.
28:03
I use it in football, and I use it in college basketball as well, and it can actually really have a contrary take. An example I found this morning was this Kansas-Arizona game.
28:13
Uh, a lot of the metrics, you can look at KenPom. He's got, uh, Arizona by a point. You can look at, like, my points per possession adjusted for opponent. I have Arizona ahead slightly.
28:25
Um, but, you know, my main member model, uh, which has been doing really well, it's pretty effective against these opening lines, actually likes Kansas by one, and a lot of that is driven by the market data. The market,
28:39
despite all the problems that Kansas has had this year, still thinks that they're a better team than Arizona. Um, if you remember, you know, Kansas started the season preseason AP number one,
28:49
and the preseason AP poll is still a pretty powerful predictor even at this point in the season, and, and I've written a lot about that. They were clearly wrong that Kansas was the top team in the country.
29:01
No one's disputing that. But this is still a really talented team. They brought back Hunter Dickinson, uh, KJ Adams, a lot of really good players. And, um, you know, I think they're actually, uh, a team
29:13
maybe to look to, to tail going into the tournament. I think they're better than what the numbers have shown this year.
29:19
And I think those are the types of insights that you kind of, you need to look for something beyond just the pure numbers this year. Yeah. Because those numbers are noisy. Little bit.
29:26
As, as good as they are, they can be noisy, and, and I think one thing that my numbers suggest is Kansas is better than what just the pure numbers say. I like Kansas plus one, 1.5 against Arizona tonight. Okay.
29:38
You like the Jayhawks tonight.
29:39
Let, let me seize on that point, though, that you made, 'cause I'm glad you brought it up, 'cause this is a, this is an Ed Feng staple through the years, which I find fascinating because when we are handicapping sports, all of us who bet on a day-to-day basis, I like to say we're often too close to the sun, no matter the sport that we're betting.
29:55
Um- When, and, and we're almost, almost too cool for school to care about such a, you know, ridiculous thing from mainstream media, or that mainstream media promotes, like the preseason AP rankings.
30:07
But you have always held steadfast, I think this is a fascinating point, that while we, as the season goes on, let's use college basketball, right? Roughly 30 games, uh, give or take a few, right? Get 30 games a season.
30:18
That while we're watching this on a nightly basis and going through a season, that the preseason poll that we stray away from, and Kansas is a great example, maybe they're an exception here, but that generally speaking, that ends up being super predictive when March Madness comes around.
30:35
Not, not, not by the gospel, obviously, but reverting to looking at that is often a helpful practice. It's an insanely helpful practice, Gil.
30:44
I actually ran some numbers by it, um, last, uh, since 2002, so pretty big data set. Uh, you can use the AP poll. Pretty simple predictor, right?
30:54
If they were higher ranked in the preseason AP poll, you would predict them to win, and then you would predict the ranked team to, uh, beat an unranked team. So, and you don't make a prediction in every single game.
31:07
That model, uh, predicted the game winner in 71.1% of games. Can you believe that? So what, what- Wow. Geez. Yeah. But, but what's the benchmark, right?
31:17
Well, I checked those same games, so not every single tournament game, but those same games that the AP poll made a prediction in, uh, I checked the closing markets. Uh, they predict the winner in 72% of games.
31:30
So you're within 1% of the gold standard, which is just kind of mind-boggling, right? Yeah. Over a pretty big data set.
31:39
Uh, what else- And, um- What el- uh, not, not to b- I just wanna get, make sure we get some picks in here with, beyond Kansas. Anything else that you landed on today, Ed, before you go?
31:49
Uh, th- that was certainly the one I liked the most. I'll give you another one. I mean, I r- I really love this Duke team. I bet them a couple times as huge favorites. Uh, had them 19 niners.
31:59
I had them minus 19 and a half against Wake Forest at home. Uh, that looked terrible for a while before it won. Um, I'm seeing similar value today.
32:08
Not, not a, not a ton of value, but I think, I think I saw a minus 22 and a half, uh, today in their first game of the, the NCAA tournament.
32:18
Look, this Duke team is ridiculously talented, and not only that, they really play defense. Um, I've also been b- betting a lot of player unders in, uh, against Duke.
32:29
Um, I, I, I don't think it's a terrible strategy to, to just bet player points for every, every market you can find against this Duke defense. They're, they're really that good on the defensive side of the ball.
32:40
Um, so, so that's another game that popped up today when I was looking at it. All right. Ed, always fascinating. Appreciate it. Always, uh, interesting to get your insights.
32:48
Uh, NFL season, just to, before you go, NFL season, you're gonna be doing a bunch of props this year? That's your thing? You're sh- you're gravitating that way? Absolutely.
32:56
Uh, I've been doing, did really, really well with intersession props last season. Not as well as the market changed this year, but still up, so I'm pretty happy about that. Okay.
33:05
And then I was just talking to some friends in Boston, and they were like, "Dude, you gotta, you gotta look into more NFL props."
33:12
And, uh, I decided that was a good idea, so I will be spending a lot of my off-season on that. All right. Ed Feng, everybody, @thepowerrank.
33:18
Don't just go to Power Rank, @thepowerrank, and also thepowerrank.com for all of his stuff. Ed, appreciate it, man, and good luck with all the bets today and beyond. Thank you so much. Ed Feng, everybody. Take care, Gil.
33:30
Uh, PhD, Kelly. You got that liquid polymers? You get all that? Yeah, I only did my thesis on polymers, not liquids and polymers. Oh, you, yeah. So. Uh, you didn't wanna brag or anything. Nah. I got it.
33:40
I didn't wanna brag at all. Okay. You have any Lucas Glover exposure? Nope. Nope, nothing? One stroke lead. Early yet at the Players Championship.
33:47
We'll come back and we'll wrap things up here on the Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network.
33:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
34:12
Numbers Game live from Circa. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin. We get tweets at Beat the Book. The numbers guys.
34:18
Crack certainly doesn't need company, but I would have loved to have seen Toddy stick around with his, uh, two or three iPads doing his in-game thing while Crack dishes on sour rooters on the strip.
34:29
You know what's tough for me, Gil? Hmm. Is the, uh, the, the desk gets crowded, so I gladly get out of the way for Bill on Thursdays, but I, but I miss having the convers- being a part of the conversation.
34:39
I love talking with Crack. With Crack? Yeah, yeah. Oh. It's just, yeah. Well, we didn't kick you out or anything. No, I know. I know. No, no. I wanted to get out. It makes it easier on the crew.
34:46
We set up a beautiful two shot for you two. [laughs] I talked to Ortega about, uh, you know, things around town. Oh, you're not paying attention is what you're saying? No, during breaks, you know? Oh, sure, sure.
34:55
Trip Tapper, "Gil, I'll offer up, uh, Nick Clifford of Colorado State as the mid-major star who could carry his team into the second weekend.
35:01
That being said, the Rams need to win the Mountain West, but Clifford is dynamic." I like that. Uh, Brian M, "Oh, it wasn't a personal attack on Kelly, the, uh, Florida State thing," uh, from Crack.
35:11
He says, "Florida State [laughs] is a baseball school, not football." That's right, Brian. You're, you're keeping up with it. That's right. Not, not a basketball school anymore. [laughs] Not a football school.
35:18
We're onto baseball. We're onto baseball. High School Gambler, "Nothing better than back in the day at the Hard Rock Casino when you go to the Circle Bar and hear the people across the bar's conversation.
35:26
Oh man, some of the things you would hear. LOL." I cannot express enough what a time that was.
35:34
Oh, if I could, if I could hop in a Vegas time machine and go see Gil Alexander in party mode at the Hard Rock, ah, I would pay so much money for that opportunity. You, you people wouldn't even understand.
35:44
[laughs] JC, "Your reference to is Wayne Brady gonna have to [laughs] is Wayne Brady gonna have to blank are fantastic. That is all." Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
35:53
New York Mets 16, uh, "Kelly's thesis was on liquids specializing in beer- [laughs]... beer, vodka, whiskey, bourbon, and his all-time favorite, eggnog." Have you had any eggnog since? No.
36:04
No, you guys ruined eggnog for me. What's this you guys? It was you and Matt on, uh, Primetime Action. A bet that will live in infamy. Oh, like you were no part of it? You were no part of it whatsoever?
36:13
I might have egged it on. Hey, whoa Knew that was coming. There we go. Uh- Um, yeah, I have, uh, I used to love eggnog. I was one of those people that, uh, i- i- as many jokes, yes, I enjoy a cocktail or two.
36:24
I would just drink eggnog straight. Straight, e- eggnog straight was, was fine. I enjoyed it. It was a delicacy. But now I can't, I can't drink it ever again. [snorts] I didn't...
36:33
What, what do they, uh, what do they call it? The hot dog contest? A reversal? I didn't have a reversal of any kind or anything that- No, you were good about that... but it was like cement in my stomach- Ugh...
36:41
for, like, five days. It was tough to watch. It was tough to watch. What was the bet again? What was it? Just that you could drink how much? Drink a half gallon of, uh, of eggnog in, uh... Isaiah just walked in.
36:51
He was there. It was a two- Yeah... hour p- uh, period of the show?
36:54
You guys nego- you and Matt negotiated it back and forth, and he was try- you guys got upset with each other 'cause he was trying to, like, change, move the goalposts.
37:01
Well, yeah, 'cause Matt tries to move the goalpost on- Yeah... any bet you set seven times. [laughs] Our own Matt Brown. I mean, you were there for the field goal contest. Oh.
37:10
You set rules, and then they get, everything gets changed by- Mm-hmm... just a little bit, a little bit. G-BAANG Best Bets of the Day courtesy of G-BAANG, the official bank of VSiN.
37:18
I am on Belinda Bencic today, plus 112 versus Maddie Keys, and this of course will be the double whammy. If Belinda can win this, not only do we win the match bet, but six to one will cash.
37:29
She will have gotten to the quarters. Maddie Keys has won 15 matches in a row and is the defending Australian Open champ. That was part of her 15-match run. Daniil Medvedev, minus four games against Artur Fils.
37:42
It's not Arthur Fills, Kelly. I know you want us to pronounce it that way. Artur Fils. It's Arthur Fills. Come on. Uh, Medvedev, minus four games, plus 104 versus Fils. Those are my, uh, two tennis bets of the day.
37:53
Dallin Cuff was here. He's on Oregon in college basketball today. Uh, Marquette money line, St. Louis laying the points, and BYU taking the three and a half. Um, 48 college basketball games today. We are underway.
38:06
Todd Wishnev, he, uh, with a rare pre-flopper, he's taking the Sooners plus the points as a first half bet today, um, in their game. So Todd Wishnev with a rare pre-flop. Zach was here.
38:20
Uh, he also was on Marquette, but he's laying the points. Uh, remember Dallin was on money line on Marquette.
38:25
In the NBA, he's on the Brooklyn Nets plus two and a half points, and then in tennis he's got Elina Svitolina plus one and a half sets versus Mirra Andreeva. He is bold taking Svitolina plus one and a half sets.
38:37
And then he's got a parlay Greek spor, Medvedev money line parlay which pays two to one, all of Zach's picks, uh, at vsin.com as well. But all these picks for subscribers at vsin.com/picks. Um, it pays to subscribe.
38:48
Ed Fang also with a couple college basketball, couple blue bloods, taking Kansas, uh, plus the points, which he just talked about moments ago, and then Duke laying the wood minus 22 and a half in an ACC quarter.
39:00
That one starts in, like, 10 minutes against Georgia Tech, by the way. So get your bets in if you wanted to play that. I, I, you know what? I forgot a page. Sorry, sorry, gang. Cr- uh, Crack actually gave out a few.
39:09
Oh, okay. Right. Twins to miss the playoffs minus 120, Red Sox to make the playoffs minus 115, and Florida State under seven and a half wins. Why, why are you- College football... why you short changing Crack?
39:19
I don't know. Sorry, Bill. G-BAANG, as always, best bet brought to you by G-BAANG, the official bank of VSiN. Upping the ante is G-BAANG with up to a $750 bonus for new G-BAANG Vis- Visa Signature card customers.
39:31
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39:49
That's vsin.com/gbaang. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Why you laughing? Uh, checking texts. [laughs] I don't know if I want to say or not on the air. [laughs] Oh, okay. Oh, okay.
40:01
F- Fesik going to war, uh, uh, today on a, on a Thursday in college basketball. Ugh. [laughs] In, in true Steve Fesik fashion. Oh, no, we definitely will.
40:09
Du- Ca- Duke is a 22 and a half point favorite, and Steve Fesik is playing them on the money line. Screw the points.
40:16
This is the man who once again had the money line on Purdue against Fairleigh Dickinson in the 116 a couple years ago. You know what happened. Minus 4,500, he's taking Duke on the money line today.
40:26
St- Steve would be proud of me. I did, uh, I, I brought in some casino rewards, uh, just giveaways. Some of these places do, like, the gift giveaways. Nice.
40:35
And a couple of them I'm, like, um, high enough in the r- rewards program that they give you, like, multiples of stuff. Mm-hmm. So, so I brought in a, a random box of gifts for the crew today. That's very nice of you.
40:45
There was a phone charger, bottle of wine, some steak knives. Oh, wow. Yeah. Who took the charger? Apparently, that was the hot item back there. I would imagine.
40:53
I think Savannah and Brendan were, uh, fighting over it, and somehow Brendan landed it. [laughs] Which, which I'm a little upset about now as after I've- What, what a gentleman he is. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. After...
41:02
And also I just learned that he's been given Dave Ross' secret coffee in the morning. Oh, he has a secret coffee? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Brendan's got quite a setup back there. Oh.
41:08
I'm pretty sure he's prepared to just stay there for a week if he needs to. You know, uh, you're, you're not gonna be here tomorrow. Kelly Bidlin is off tomorrow. I'm out. Yes.
41:15
Um, Wyatt Tomchek will, uh, be in your chair. Um, so you wanna do a special Thursday since you're not gonna be here Friday? Estamos seguros? Are we sure? Yes, I do. Let's do it. Are we sure- Yeah...
41:27
it will be Duke, Auburn, Houston, or Florida winning the NCAA tournament? Can I be honest with you? I am sure. Okay. I do not believe... I, now here's the thing. I want it to be Alabama. Yeah.
41:42
That's why I have my futures taken on. So I'd love to be wrong and that it be Alabama, but I kinda think it's one of those four. Does it not feel like, like this feels like the year that we've heard...
41:52
I don't, I don't know if anybody's taken a stance and said it will be one of these four that directly, but man, a lot of the people we've talked to over the past couple weeks sure sound like they would answer yes to that as well.
42:02
I, I don't think, I don't remember.
42:03
Now, some k- you know, keen observing listener will tell me differently perhaps, but over the years that we've done the formula, which is every year f- since the beginning of time, I don't think we've ended up with the same three teams and only those teams every week that we've done it.
42:18
And that when a team starts to approach it, it's like, again, the game of red light, green light, where the, uh, the person immediately just says, "I caught you moving," to, to the, the person closest to them.
42:27
You ever play with that player? That's what it feels like, that there's a force field before they can get into it. So Iowa State got close, couldn't get in there. Michigan State got close, couldn't get in there.
42:35
Arizona got close, couldn't got in there. Now it's, what, Clemson and Tennessee are the closest. We'll see if they can qualify.
42:42
But I, I feel it's one of those four, 'cause Florida, the only exception, is the Sweet 16 one, with a head coach prior to this year in Todd Golden. Trying to figure out where I wanna go next. All right, NFL. Yes, sir.
42:52
Are, are we sure the Steelers are a better team with Aaron Rodgers? Than with Russell Wilson/Justin Fields? Yeah, than what they had a year ago. Uh, I'm not sure. I'm not sure. The Steelers seem to feel that way.
43:04
They have made Aaron Rodgers an offer. And by the way, what is Aaron Rodgers waiting for? This is such an Aaron Rodgers thing to do. "Let me wait four days before I make my decision. I'm that important."
43:15
So, so I saw- Make your damn decision, man. I saw Evan Cohen over at ESPN Radio I used to work with tweet this out this morning. He's like, "I think I got this all figured out.
43:23
Aaron Rodgers wants the Vikings, the Steelers [laughs] want Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson wants the Steelers. So this is all gonna go well." Yeah. Um, I do think the Vikings are still...
43:34
We've said, we've been pretty consistent about this. The Vikings makes the most sense to me. I mean, it does, for multiple reasons, right?
43:40
Like, like- Even though Packers fans would, their heads would explode all over again. Like, Steelers, you'll be good with Rodgers. Yeah. But if you're Aaron Rodgers, stay out of the AFC. No.
43:48
Do anything you can to do with the AFC. There's no point. Yeah. And not be on the Giants, though. Um, okay, are we sure the Rams are the team to beat in the NFC West as of today? As of today, I am. Yeah, me too. Me too.
43:59
The odds don't reflect that though, do they? No, they do not. And may- uh, you and I are both gonna stay, uh... We're, we're not gonna... We're gonna keep our money in our pockets?
44:07
There's other stuff going on I'm betting on right now. Yeah, me too. Yeah. Me too. Yeah. I'm, I'm kind of proud of us. Yeah. Okay, are we sure we will ever see Tiger Woods play, play a PGA Tour event again?
44:16
I'm not, I'm not sure about that. He ruptured his Achilles, as we all know. Uh, we didn't talk about it, but yes, I'm not sure. I'm not sure that he ever will. It's kind of, it's kind of hard to watch now. It is, man.
44:26
Sad. Terrible news. Uh, all right, right now as of this moment, Beau Hossler, no, yes, Beau Hossler your leader at the Players Championship. Four under through 14, a one-stroke lead. That's not Aaron Rai.
44:38
Uh, over a, uh, what is it? A, ooh, seven other golfers who are one stroke back. So that's right now at the, uh, first round, early stages of the Players Championship. Stormy is next. Money Moves.
44:48
Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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