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Mar 14, 2025
A Numbers Game | HR 2 | 03.14.25
A Numbers Game | HR 2 | 03.14.25
00:00
44:52
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Transcript
0:00
Work. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, of course, Sirius XM Channel n- uh, what is it? 158. I got distracted by the old Love Connection thing.
0:20
Sirius XM Channel 158 of course. It's Gil Alexander, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Still to come, Steve Fezzik and Chris Fallica, The Bear from Fox Sports, standing by.
0:31
We get tweets at Beat of the Book, always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Jamie Leyva, "Hearing that a young, sleeveless Steve Fezzik was on a Love Connection has got me in tears. I can't stop laughing.
0:41
I'll be back in two and two." That was of course Chuck Woolery's little tagline. Carter Wiltshire, I can't wait to hear all about this.
0:46
Carter Wiltshire, "Mike Hall is on Fox now and was recently married to a Real Housewife of Atlanta, not any longer. How do I know this? My, uh, wife." Carter, I think you're not thinking of Mike Hall.
0:57
I think you're thinking of Mike Hill. That one little letter is a big difference. Not Mike Hall, uh, not Mike Hill, rather. It's Mike Hall that we're referring to who was on Dream Job, who got the job at Fox Sports.
1:08
Mike Hill, [laughs] Mike Hill used to be on ESPN, now he's on Fox, and yes, he was married to a Real Housewife of Atlanta. Uh, Charles in Connecticut, "Not that anyone cares 'cause no one knows who I am."
1:17
We care, Charles. He says, "But I was on the ESPN Super Bowl of Sports Trivia hosted by Chris Berman in 1988. It was modeled after that old high school quiz show. My 15 seconds of fame." Good for you.
1:28
By the way, Todd Wright, one of our regular guests here on the Numbers Game, I believe was on Remote Control. Remember the old MTV show, Remote Control, with, uh, was it Ken Ober? He was on that.
1:39
We got- and we can't find the footage. We've been trying to find the footage of that for years. We can't find it. Uh, Master of Puppets, oh, this is very nice of Master of Puppets.
1:46
He says, "Hey, Gil, let, uh, Rob know," that was Rob was, uh, the, the listener who, uh, tweeted in, "Hey, Jason's my man. Can Jason give me a college basketball, uh, future?" He said, "Rob, I have, uh..."
1:57
He wants Rob to know that he's got Florida at nine to one and Houston at seven to one, "Just trying to help out our gambling friends," he said. Well, that's very nice of you.
2:04
Um, I would've said I have Alabama at 18 to one, which I do, but he was asking Jason specifically, so.
2:08
Uh, and then Harold Irving off the, uh, Jason Weingarten, uh, segment, said he just grabbed Sasaki's 75 to one for NL Cy Young, rolling with JW. That's what we're calling Jason these days.
2:19
Chris Fallica's in town, everybody. Uh, he's The Bear from Fox Sports, and he's in town for a little horse race and handicapping contest, and by little, I mean a big one. Uh, we'll get all the deets on that.
2:29
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him again @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A. He's got his podcast empire, The Bear Bets pods over there at Fox. How you doing, man?
2:39
I, I'm, I'm doing well. About, we're about, uh, an hour and a half away from getting going here for the, uh, for the...
2:44
There's actually a horse I like in the first race at Tampa, so, uh, very unusual firing an optional bullet early in the, uh, contest, but we're, we're ready to roll.
2:52
Okay, now you can, you can't give us that horse because someone might be listening that's competing with you? Correct. Ex- exactly. Right. We don't wanna give away the, uh, the, the, the picks now with, in the area.
3:01
It's funny 'cause on, even on like Twitter and stuff sometimes I like to fire some horses out, but like over the next couple of days I really can't just because people, he did game theory and stuff.
3:09
But, uh, yeah, uh, 800 people. Uh, a lot of the winner gets, uh, $825,000, and just basically the object is, uh, today and tomorrow, uh, you have, uh, s- uh, 34 mythical wagers where you get win place money.
3:24
There are, uh, 14 mandatory races over the next two days, 20 optional races over the next two days, and the object is to just, uh, build up your, uh, your bankroll, and you need to be in the top 10% after, uh, Saturday.
3:38
And then, um, on, on Sunday you, uh, you wind up playing for cash. Man. So, uh, yeah. And, uh, that, I, I have a g- I was just telling you off air, I have a good feeling. We, we were hanging out yesterday.
3:47
I have a good feeling about you this year. This is- Yeah, I, I, I feel good. I, I, thanks.
3:50
I, I feel good 'cause I, uh, before I met with you and, uh, Chrissy last night, I handicapped, uh, three tracks, handicapped three tracks when I got back, and, uh, I think I got myself in a good spot where I have a, a workable number of optional races to choose from, and then there, there are the mandatories.
4:06
So we, we'll, we'll await the scratches and see, uh, see where I stand after that. Let's go. Let's get it done. Absolutely. $825,000 would be very nice.
4:14
By the way, we, we neglected to mention, the name of the handicapping contest is? Uh, the, the, uh, the NHC. NHC, uh, 25 National Handicapping Championship. Which, which you're here for every year, right? Pretty much.
4:23
Uh, all, you have to qualify every year. The, uh, I didn't qualify in 2020, so I'm gonna blame the, uh, the, the COVID year on me- Okay... for not qualifying for the handicapping.
4:31
But yeah, you have to qualify throughout the year. You don't have, can't buy your way in. You actually have to either win a qualifier or place in a qualifier to, uh, get here.
4:39
So yeah, y- m- m- more, more years than not, I am, uh- Yeah... I am here. And we haven't figured out if our own Mike Somich is on, uh, is in the contest yet or not. Yeah, I forgot to look. We have not.
4:48
I would assume he is. Okay. Uh, he, he, he's, he's a regular, so I, I would, I would think that he is. All right. I'd have to look at that. If so, good luck to the both of yous, as they say. Thank you.
4:57
Uh, okay, let's go to college basketball. 38 games, college basketball, hopefully, uh, well, if you weren't doing the contest, you could hang out with us and watch, but you're in the- I know, later...
5:04
you're busy with the contest. Tonight, hopefully. Tonight, hopefully. Um, the Riverside got bounced in the Big West. They did. So I don't know if we'll add it there anymore.
5:10
Um, all right, you have a couple college basketball plays, uh, specifically in the Mountain West and the Big Ten. What do you got? Yeah, I took UCLA plus the one against Wisconsin.
5:19
I, I like UCLA, and I think they are a, a team that's live to win this league, and I think they're, depending on their seed, they're a live team. They're live to make a, uh, a deep run in the tournament.
5:30
And I like the way they play defense. They're deep. Uh, their, their healthiness. I, I mean, I like the Bruins against Wisconsin. Uh, I think Wisconsin kind of peaked a couple of weeks ago.
5:39
So I t- I took one with UCLA, and then I took a point, uh, in the Mountain West here w- with, with Boise against New Mexico. Uh, n- Boise really wasn't great yesterday, but they got by New Mexico.
5:50
I think it's a team that really, uh, needs home court, and, and, and they got by, uh, yesterday as well.
5:58
But, uh, but, but I, I think Boise w- with Diggle and some of the perimeter players that they have, I think they can give New Mexico some problems. In fact, oh actually I'm getting two points now. Perfect.
6:07
But, uh, in fact you got the, uh, the one seed here Only, only a two-point favorite over, uh, over a Boise team that right now isn't in the field. I think that's, that's telling, and I think Boise's the right side.
6:17
Uh, Chris just mentioned that we were hanging out with, uh, my mishpucha, Chrissy Andrews, our mutual friend, yesterday.
6:21
And at the South Point, uh, f- before college football season and, and oftentimes before the tournament in college basketball, they put out these big props, one giant prop.
6:31
So before the college football season, they give you a bucket of... They, they give you three buckets of teams, I believe, sort of. Maybe I'm, maybe I'm botching that.
6:39
But at the beginning of March Madness, he d- they do some creative props, and this year's, the creative prop is, uh, the SEC versus the field. The SEC versus the field. So you either...
6:50
So whoever wins the national championship, in other words, will it come from the SEC or from any other conference, from any other conference in college basketball?
6:57
And so obviously the SEC, you got Bama, you got Auburn, you got Florida, you got, uh, who am I leaving out? Tennessee. Tennessee. Uh, Kentucky- Kentucky... is in there as well. Um, and what was the price?
7:07
He said he got the f- the first bet he took was on the SEC and it moved the SEC- No, I thought it was the field. I, I thought he t- I thought it was a big b- uh, bet...
7:15
I thought it was a big bet on the field, and then everything since then has been- Oh, yes. I think-... SEC... I think you're right. So the first bet was on the field. The field went up to minus 165, was it? Mm-hmm.
7:25
And then everything else has been money on the SEC, and now it's like, what do you say, minus 115-ish? 120, I think. Yeah. 120, 125. So it's- I- I... See, that, that brought up an interesting...
7:35
And I, and I was pondering this after we were...
7:37
had that conversation, and I thought about, like, just general strategy for Mark- March Madness and just kind of being, uh, maybe not contrarian, but, like, anti-group think.
7:46
Like, you know, when I, when watching the Texas Tech game yesterday, I was just thinking, like, after all this talk about the SEC- Mm-hmm...
7:53
and the greatest conference ever, like, you give me Texas Tech, you give me Iowa State, uh, BYU, the way they move the ball on offense, Houston, like, the Big 12 is a damn good conference.
8:06
And, and I think, uh, that there's gonna be s- i- if you're in one of these bracket pools or you're in survivor or, or, or you're in, like, one of these, the, uh, pick the Final Four and, and, and the winner and point kind of contest, uh, that, that I'm in, like, uh, if you're looking maybe to fade some of these SEC teams, maybe you fade a public team like Michigan State.
8:28
A lot of people are gonna be on Michigan State, uh, to reach the Final Four. A lot of people are gonna be on St. John's to, to reach the Final Four.
8:34
Like, uh, sometimes the, the better move instead of trying to pick like we...
8:38
Like, y- your, your winner, like, try and be a little bit different in a lot of these contests and a lot of these pools because, uh, you wanna be on the opposite side of some of these really popular teams, I think, to, uh, to give your chance a better, better chance to win.
8:51
So maybe being a little anti-SEC, a little anti-St. John's, a little anti-Michigan State, as much as it pains me to be oppo of Michigan State and St.
8:59
John's, because I love both those coaches and I love both those programs. But, uh, that, that might be the way to g- way to go. And it is an interesting prop in, in your general strategy.
9:06
We'll go over some bracket strategy next week- Yeah... on, on Monday. But yeah, generally the bigger your pool, right, the more people in your pool- Right...
9:13
the more entries in your pool, the more contrarian you're incentivized to be, obviously. Like, McNeese State is gonna be a popular upset pick. Drake is gonna be a popular upset pick.
9:21
So, uh, d- don't think you're gonna be, "Oh, well, you..." Don't think you're gonna be the only one, "I'm not picking McNeese State," and all that- That's right... 13-4 upset. Everybody does that.
9:29
[laughs] There'll be other people are watching too. Yeah, yeah. Uh, to baseball. You have a couple a- a- awards. Is it awards or is it categories? Yeah. What do you got? Yeah, awards bets. Yeah, a- award, awards.
9:38
I- Yeah... I think I had some categories and, and some stuff I gave out last week, and, uh, like, like you, I was going back through and looking.
9:44
I had some free play to, uh, to burn through, and I wound up on a couple of more. I took Wyatt Langford, uh, to win the M- AL MVP at, uh, it's 70 to 1.
9:53
And I think y- you look at the, the list there of players, like Aaron Judge I think is a toss. Uh, the Royals' Bobby Witt, who knows what type of year he's gonna have. Alvarez and the Astros are gonna...
10:02
Henderson's already hurt. Mike Trout, uh, like another guy you can't really bank on him being healthy.
10:07
Like, W- Langford's a guy who I think in his second season here could, could be a 30/30-type guy for a team that could win the division. Uh, he could be a super breakout star.
10:16
So I thought 70 to 1 was worth a, uh, a chance on him. But I- What about, what about the current 40 to 1? Not as, not as juicy. Oh, no, yeah. Sure.
10:24
I, I'd, I'd still take that 'cause I, I think, I, I think there are, there, there are holes in all these guys.
10:29
Like Aaron Judge, remember a couple of years ago how, like, every day we were betting the, "Will Aaron Judge walk today?" And it took a while for the book to really catch on to that. Yeah.
10:37
Like, Judge, why pitch to him this year? Like, there, there's no need to pitch, uh, to him in that lineup on that team. So, uh, I, I don't think he wins it 'cause I think the Yankees are gonna have a, a down year.
10:48
And then, uh, in AL Rookie of the Year category, I took, uh, Will Wagner from Blue Jays. Uh, Billy Wagner's son. I bet him at 15 to 1. Guy who could play a bunch of different infield positions. A really good hitter.
10:59
Kind of a more, maybe not a, a, a 20, 25 home run guy, but he's gonna get a lot of doubles. He's gonna get on base, uh, collect a lot of hits. You could put him basically at a DH spot. A lot of infield positions as well.
11:10
So Will Wagner on the Blue Jays, 15 to 1, was my other, uh, awards player. All right. So Wyatt Langford of the Rangers for MVP, and then Will Wagner for American League Rookie of the Year, he of the Toronto Blue Jays.
11:21
Your two awards plays from, from Chris in addition to his, uh, two college basketball plays. Again, he's on Boise State catching the point versus New Mexico in the Mountain West.
11:30
UCLA, uh, also catching a point versus Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament. That old Big Ten rivalry, UCLA versus Wisconsin. [laughs] E- exactly. Some great rivals.
11:39
By the way, good luck to you and Iga today in reaching her first final since Roland Garros last night. [laughs] I love you, brother. Shots fired. Had a prayer there. [laughs] Chris Malick, everybody.
11:49
Fezzik on the other side next right here on The Numbers Game.
11:52
[upbeat music]Sports Betting Network Felika with the tried and true take a shot as the commercial comes so I can't respond to his attacks.
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12:47
That's J-U-I-C-E R-E-E-L. Download Juice Reel today. How about that? Um, ladies and gentlemen, um, he is, uh, kind enough to join us for, uh, not one segment, not two, but even three, for God sakes.
13:02
He's the only back-to-back winner of the, uh, Hilton SuperContest, and boy, did we learn something about him this morning, which I cannot wait to get into. It's Steve Fezzik, everybody. How you doing, man?
13:12
I am excellent. Intro music? Oh, ladies and gentlemen, Fezzik Fridays. Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays.
13:26
I love that you remembered your intro music, and you demand that it be played. Well, I stepped on my music not once, but twice. [laughs] And Gil admonished me. Yes. And he's like, "Stevie- Yeah...
13:37
you can't talk until the music goes." Yeah, I botch that. Good for you. [laughs] Thank you for remembering. Okay, so I, I wanna get into all that stuff we...
13:43
And by the way, for those who missed it, we, we had, uh, Mike Renner on earlier, uh, talking NFL draft.
13:48
He u- he was once on The Bachelorette, so we briefly talked about it, and then I get this text, um, from Steve, uh, a little early, a little after that on the show, but while we're here on the air, and he says, "Oh yeah, I was" [laughs] He just casually mentions, "I was on Love Connection in 1993."
14:02
Okay, so we have to get into this. Have you ever talked about this before? No. Okay. Let, let's not get into it right now. Let, let's wait a segment because college basketball tips off in about 13 minutes.
14:12
So let's talk about what you're betting this morning and why. So I have basic strategy this time of year. Early start times, groggy. I'm groggy. The players are groggy. The fans are groggy. The stadium is half filled.
14:25
So I love first-half unders. So we have a game that goes at 8:30 Pacific Time, um, St. Bonnie's VCU, so we're on the under in that game. That's the first start time, and I am als- It's a go. It's a- It's a go, go.
14:38
We are betting under. [laughs] First half, under, I don't know what the current number is because I was driving in, under 61, VCU St. Bonnie's. Um, and I also played Oregon-Michigan State, first half under 66.
14:49
That's a 9:00 AM start time. And of course, a game that's on everybody's radar screen, the Kennesaw State-Liberty game, under. I got 65.
14:58
I think mar- the, the market number's g- right around there, uh, first half under 65 right now. Can you give the rotation numbers, since you always blast others for not giving them? I can, Gilly. Mm-hmm.
15:07
So we've got, uh, game 822 is the Liberty game, 814 is Oregon, and 806 is VCU, but these are, if you have them chronologically- Yeah...
15:17
they're the first three games chronologically, and they're high up on the top of the betting board as well. Did you have a fourth or you decided you didn't wanna do a fourth? I'm gonna go with those three. Those three.
15:24
The fourth would be, um, Atlantic 10, St. Louis-Loyola under 64. Okay, let's go back to that premise, which is it's early in the morning, um, body clock stuff, but it's, you know, it's super early in the morning.
15:37
Gyms or, or the arenas are not full. People s- people lollygag into these. [laughs] And, and that's a theory. Is it backed up with numbers in your experience? Y- yes, but what, it...
15:48
You have to be careful because inevitably what happens is that these things get bet. So if you grade them against the closing number, you don't do as well as when you go ahead and bet them earlier in the betting cycle.
16:00
Another thing that benefits this is this is the time of year, big dance and conference tournaments, the normal model of, like, if you have a total that's 130, you make the first half 61, the second half 69.
16:11
In general, if y- gun to your head, you'd wanna play first half unders, second half overs, because teams will oftentimes foul to the bitter end. They'll extend the game. You'll get some higher-scoring second halves.
16:21
But the first halves, teams tend to play a little bit tighter and more careful. Okay, and the first of these games is the, is the St. Bonaventure game you said. Yeah, St. Bonnie's VCU.
16:30
VCU, s- which tips off in 11 minutes, at least by the clock, but you get the idea. It'll be, uh, here soon. So the under in that one, uh, you said you got 62. I ended up with 61 and a half.
16:41
Not quite as favorable, but okay. Let's play it. Let's do it. Go. Let's go. Um, so three plays there early from Stevie. Uh, the other thing that we get this time of year in college basketball is,
16:53
and this is, let, let me just, I have to preface this by saying, 'cause I sort of alluded to it earlier. It's a pet peeve of mine.
16:59
I don't talk about it much because if I do talk about it, it sounds like I'm going after people, right?
17:06
And unlike you, Stevie, I don't really enjoy going after people li- as much as you do on Twitter, and we know how you are on Twitter. That's a whole other story. But- That's my evil twin. Yeah. [laughs] That's right.
17:16
Um, but the pet peeve is, 'cause, like, when I do tennis tournaments, and this, by, by the way, Indian Wells was a little bit of an exception 'cause I had, but I, but it's not all outrights.
17:24
It's, I had, I, I only have one outright, right, on the men's and the women's side. I did do quarter bets.
17:30
It's actually more, more outrights, um, than I usually have, but they're not all outrights to win the tournaments. They're quarters, so it's not the same markets.
17:37
But typically, and whene- whenever I'm doing a tennis tournament, I will always have outrights confined to one play, right?
17:45
Uh, and you get a cottage industry of folks who, March Madness is a great example to bring this up, I don't love talking about it, but I know you, you hate this, where they have a million outrights.
17:57
A million might be an exaggeration, but you get the idea. Yeah, because it's fun. It's great content. It's like going, m- 1990s movie reference, um, Running Man. So Richard Dawson is Killian.
18:09
He's the, he's the evil guy, and it's like at some point I'm listening to all these shows and these content providers that are like Killian, and it's wildly entertaining, but I almost feel like I wanna put, like, like, um, Schwarzenegger does, a big sign, "Killian is lying to you No one is winning playing these four to ones, eight to ones, 14 to ones.
18:27
Famously, Gilly, you have your, you, your formula that says only four teams, three and a half- Three, three and a half... if you count Iowa State- Right. Yeah... can win the national championship.
18:36
So suddenly, and, and on our, our group text, Todd and I are fighting, and I'm like, "VCU, Todd, is not winning the national championship." And he's like, "Oh, you just earn off of it down the road."
18:46
Yeah, yeah, if they make- Yeah... like, the, the Sweet 16, you can like, or you can win, like, 30% by playing back the other guys on the favorites. Otherwise, then if they don't make it, you lose your unit.
18:55
It's just such a terrible wager. The sports books have huge vig, and guess where all that vig is backed into? It's not the favorites that have, that are terrible odds. It's these dogs that should be paying.
19:05
Famously, well, there's one year Michigan State made the final- Yeah... the finals, and if you played the mechanical parlay, it would've paid 150 to one.
19:12
They, well, lost, 'cause they lost in the finals, I think, to Florida. But it, they were like 50 to one, and people were tweeting the ticks, "I got Sparty 50 to one." It's like, y- y- you got short paid. You should've...
19:23
If you had just played them to make the Final Four, you get almost the same. Yeah, it's, uh, and, you know, and it's just simple math of e- let's say you do hit one.
19:32
Let's say, let's say you have 15 different futures, and by the way, we know people who do have, like, tons of futures. Y- you know, okay, let's say you hit an 18 to one.
19:41
You don't, like, the fact that you would take a victory lap on that is just a, is mathematically incorrect, right? Exactly. Yeah. Now let me back up and be fair. Oh.
19:49
There are people, like, if you grabbed Iowa State back in November before everyone knew how good they were- And the number is in- is huge... and, and you're get, you're getting- Right...
19:57
90 to one on a, whatever it was- And that's a different story... on a number two seed. Yeah. Totally different. Now we're talking- Yeah... today, betting futures today. You're, you won't win.
20:05
You will not win following the sharpest people in the world because you know what? The market demands it. They're asking for it, and so they give, they give it out. It's content. Yeah.
20:13
I, I, a- again, for me, it's a little awkward because it always sounds like it, when someone brings it up, if they f- if they don't like you and they think you're going after someone, they'll tell you, "Oh, he's going after him."
20:21
I'm not going after people. I'm just saying as a, as a rule, there's a lot, there's way too m- there's way too much of that that we hear. And look at Connecticut. Yeah. You know, that dominant run.
20:30
If you bet Connecticut four to one, that actually turned out to be a great bet. So think about how terrible all the other teams [laughs] were to bet. Yeah.
20:36
Because Connecticut's like laying eight, laying 10 against all these teams, you know? Minus 325, you know, no vig favorite in the last, you know, four games.
20:44
Yeah, and the point of that formula, again, the college basketball formula, the point of it is, is that, yes, March Madness, and this is the, what gets played up, right?
20:51
What gets played up in the media, and the reason we all love March Madness so much, and we love conference tournaments because we like to see, right, Delaware flirt with stealing a bid as a 12 and 19.
21:00
But when March Madness comes and we have the bracket, all you hear about are the upsets. Oh, will a 12 beat a five? Will a 13 beat a four? Oh my God, a 16 to one. I know you know that very well.
21:10
Will a 16 to one, you know, historically these only happened twice now, will those things happen? And yes, okay, in round one and round two, these things do happen.
21:18
Obviously round two, eights will beat ones, and that kind of thing. So the upsets get all the, the hype, but once you get to the business end of the tournament- Once you strike midnight- Yeah...
21:28
Cinderella has left the ball. The formula tells you that. It's like, no, these are the only teams that ever win it. Yes. With the exception of the 2014- Connecticut, yeah. Yeah. This is Kevin Ollie. Yeah. Right, right.
21:37
Yeah, you know the story. So I mean, but that's the thing, and so that's why, and I know that bothers you 'cause you, you hear so much of that.
21:43
And it's, and you're right, it's, it's, a lot of that is driven by the fact that we have to fill, not we, but all, all folks fill content and it makes for interesting conversation. Wildly entertaining.
21:54
But if it's, if it's not really realistic- It's good for filling out brackets. Yeah. It's fun to f- Yeah... you know, fill out brackets and who's gonna get to the Final Four and things like that.
22:02
Oh, brackets are a different story because, and some, some brackets are upset rewarded, so you should- And you got a million people- Yeah... in those brackets, too...
22:08
uh, and you should be picking upsets in brackets, but we're just talking about the outrights itself, the team that lands at the top of the hill. Um, right, and totally different story.
22:17
Y- you said we should probably say that. If you're getting 90 to ones and 80 to ones, like Jim Root has tickets where they're massive inflated numbers, that's a different story. Absolutely. That's a different story.
22:25
All right, we'll get back 'cause it, 'cause Steve has one more pet peeve, uh, which he alluded to there briefly, which has to do with, uh, some other gambling
22:33
cottage industry that is, uh, promoted in content that you don't love either, which, uh, should, uh, burst the bubble for some on that. We'll get to that, but Love Connection, 1993. You've never told this story before.
22:47
This is amazing. You've never told it before? Yeah, I won on Love Connection. You won? Yeah, I won. And you had a date. Yes. All right, we gotta find out all about this. I have so many questions.
22:55
Stevie, Steve Fezzik, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports- [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. All right, once again, VSiN is free. I'm telling you, don't cost you nothing.
23:12
Free until Selection Sunday. That's this Sunday.
23:15
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23:31
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23:41
That's V-S-I-N.com/champweek. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Carl Cope, "Add me to the list of Super Bowl of sports trivia alums." Hey, how about that? We got a lot of listeners been on stuff.
23:53
"Did the second season in 1989 while a student at Penn State, all before Jeopardy! Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, and one quiz show set at one of Donald Trump's casinos. A degenerative game show guy I am."
24:06
Um, Trip Tepper, "To add to the Numbers Game rando reality TV theme today, I was on ESPN Stump the Schwab in 2005," oh, the great Howie Schwab, may he rest in peace, "uh, while in graduate school.
24:18
I didn't win, but just making the show was an accomplishment since the vetting process by ESPN was rigorous." Uh, Tom Mass tells us, "No Samich NHC."
24:27
By the way, clarification, Mike Samich not in, uh, the horse racing contest. The James Lloyd, "Thank God for VSiN. The worldwide leader has been talking about the same thing for at least 30 minutes.
24:37
You definitely have the best gig." Uh, no doubt. Margin Call, "Love Connection. Fezz, this is great." Oh, yeah. And Mr. Postman 619 says, "Gil, you missed the opportunity to say we'll be back in two and two."
24:49
Oh, I was getting to that. But we gotta have the conversation first.
24:52
Ladies and gentlemen, Steve Fezzik, uh, the only back-to-back winner of the s- of the Hilton Super Contest, a Twitter menace, and, uh, all around, um, you know, helpful guy on the radio here giving us great gambling talk each and every week here on the show and on other parts of the network.
25:09
Casually text when Mike Ren- 'cause Steve, he can't let Mike Renner have all the, uh, the, the attention, so he's like, "Oh, by the way, I was on Love Connection in 1993." Let's go back to the beginning.
25:18
How did th- first of all, how old were you, and how did this happen? So it's '93. My goodness, I've gotten old. I'm 30.
25:25
My buddy Dan, professional bettor in Huntington Beach, um, talked me into filling out the questionnaire. He wanted to be on. So we filled out the questionnaire at some local casino, and they picked me.
25:34
So, uh- Wh- what's on the questionnaire? Uh, what celebrity do you most look like? I went Alec Baldwin. [laughs] Thank goodness he got fat so it was more appropriate. Okay, you went Alec Baldwin.
25:45
[laughs] So they're like, "You're in." Uh, uh, apparently so, and then Chuck Woolery hates me. I'm ta- y- I'm talking about Jeopardy!
25:52
and, and, and basic strategy and Final Jeopardy!- This is while you're on the show or before the- On the show.
25:55
I'm on the show with, with Chuck Woolery after I'm picked, and, and, and I can tell, I can tell Chuck is like, "This guy think he's, he looks like Alec Baldwin. He's talking about Jeopardy!
26:04
W- who, wh- how did we let this guy on my show?" What do you say about Jeopardy!? That the, the geniuses are dummies when it goes to Final Jeopardy! I have no idea what to wager. And famously, Jeopardy!
26:13
James, 20 years later, came up with the strategy, and I said, "Yeah, everyone knows this." And people are like, "Oh, Fezzik, the great aggregator, you just, yeah, you didn't know about this."
26:21
I was like, "Hey, I was on... I talked about Love Connection in 1993." [laughs] Come on. Did you, did you call them dumbos by any chance- [laughs]... at the time?
26:27
I, I think I, eh, didn't use dumbo, that term, back in '93. So Ch- so Chuck Woolery hates you as you're doing this. Hates me, and this is going south big time. Okay. [laughs] He seemed real pleasant, by the way.
26:37
[laughs] Um, all right, and so, eh, remind everybody the format of Love Connection. So were you... First of all, were you pumped to go on the show? Were you excited? Yeah, it was, it w- it was fun, but I'm nervous.
26:46
I'm like, "Am I gonna, gonna be a dumbo?" And so I, I get to pick one of the three bachelors, bachelorettes, whatever. I- Yeah...
26:52
so I pick one, and miracle, a miracle of miracles, I gotta give credit to the, the, the pool of people they have because they're trying to match people- Yeah... that you might may be able to make a connection.
27:02
The gal I pick actually likes me. Wait, wait, wait a minute. [laughs] What? Yeah. I, I know. She likes you. Wh- what was her name again? Karen Eskedzen- Oh... in Los Angeles, and she was a cutie, and I'm like, "Ugh."
27:15
Oh, Karen Eskedzen. You know, "I'm, I'm not kicking my coverage. I'm... This is gonna be a disaster." And we just hit it off really well and had a great- Wait, so you go on a, so you go on a date?
27:23
And we have a great date, yeah. Where'd you go? So we just went to, like, the, I think Santa M- uh, it might've been the Santa Monica. It's been so many years, okay?
27:33
But, like, like, that, that walking area in Santa Monica. It's in West LA. The pier, the pier, the Santa Monica Pier? Uh, yeah, I, I, I, I could be wrong. There- Oh, you're talking about the promenade...
27:40
very, yeah, it's very casual, our date, and the like. And then we went back. I was living in South Pasadena. And we actually, we came back, and we just did- nothing happened, but we had a good time.
27:48
And so, so I showed her my place in South Pasadena, and Chuck Woolery says- Showed, showed, showed her your place, huh?... "To show her your sketchies." Yeah, no doubt. Um, so she comes out after.
27:55
Woolery's ready to throw me under the bus. Yeah. And she's like, "I really like Steve." And, like, and I... A- and Woolery's got this look on his face, [laughs] like, "What's wrong with this girl?"
28:04
[laughs] So, so you have the one date, and that was it? No, we went out, like, three times, and it was just a, an, an example. It's so hard to find someone that, like, th- that's a good partner because she's...
28:15
I m- what the kiss of death was I met up with her friends who were ultra-liberal, you know, and I'm, like, a conservative Midwestern guy, and it was just too much of a culture cr- um, clash- I see...
28:25
between us because of that, but she's great, yeah. Okay, so but, but Woolery never uttered the words, "So I guess we don't have a connection here," 'cause he couldn't say that 'cause you did have a connection. Oh, I...
28:33
There, there was a connection. Yeah. Yeah, so he couldn't say that. Wow. Yeah. Unbelievable. Now, here's the real question, Steve. So I won. I won. You w- [laughs] you won. I won.
28:42
But, eh, it's such a weird show 'cause you- Yeah. [laughs]... "won" in quotes. You don't win anything, right? You, you won her- I think, I think they gave you $50 for the date or something.
28:49
I don't- You, yeah, you won her, her affection for a brief period of time. Yeah. So, um, is there footage of this anywhere? You know, it was August- We've gotta find this... I'm gonna put out a bounty, right?
29:00
It's like McCracken in Slap Shot. I'm putting out a $100 bounty. Anyone who can find, it was August, plus or minus a month, of 1993. Uh, my real name's Steve Fennek, uh, Karen Eskedzen.
29:11
Uh, if you can find a clip of this, all right, if you can find the show, I will give you th- $300. That was the bounty in Slap Shot. [laughs] $300. So you can provide me a...
29:20
You remember that when he put the bounty on McCracken, yes. [laughs] $300. We're trying to find Todd Wright on Remote Control. [laughs] But more importantly, we're trying to find Fezzik on Love Connection in 1993.
29:31
This is gold, Jerry. [laughs] This would be gold. Oh my God. How, how do I, how have we never stumbled on this before? It's been so long, and I'd forgotten about it, basically. A young Steve Fezzik.
29:41
Were you dressed properly? I joke that you were sleeveless lo- when you were on there. I probably was wearing a Treasure Island sweatshirt. I probably wasn't dressed properly and the like.
29:48
And I, like I said, I don't even remember where the date was. I just remember, you know, that, that, you know, we ha- I remember I'd just moved into my place- Yeah...
29:54
in South Pasadena, so maybe it was July of, um, 1993, and I had boxes everywhere. I didn't, like, like, I didn't even have a proper, you know, abode. Does, does the wife know about this? No. She doesn't know? Yeah. No.
30:07
Keep it quiet. Keep that in the queue. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, she kind of tunes in, f- says things about the buttons on my shirt, so maybe she's just hearing this for the first time. Yeah, so she's o- I've...
30:13
She'd love, but by the way- Yeah... so she's always like, "Got to tell your friend Gilly." Like, don't, don't- So-... don't be showing the cleavage... it's the shirt where the button lies.
30:20
[laughs] Wait, so she doesn't know this? You've never told her this before? No. What would she think about this? Would she think you're a big dork for being on this? She... Yeah, because she's a very private person.
30:29
She's like, "What are you doing?" Wow. Yeah. That's unbelievable. Um, did you and Karen Eskedzen keep in touch, or that was that, a couple dates and then done?
30:36
W- w- we, uh, did not keep in touch, but we, but w- it was, it was as good a parting as you will ever have. I- You n- that's the great thing when you only go out three times- I feel-... three or four times.
30:45
You never g- it's no breakup. It's just, it was just a great guy. I feel compelled to ask you, were you on, because this is the time to know. I don't wanna find something out later. Were you on any other game shows ever?
30:55
That's the only one, other than in fourth grade, I was on, in Dayton, Ohio, there was the, um, the Duffy the Dog Show. [laughs] I was a Cub Scout. Okay. Steve Fezzik, Love Connection. Clubhouse 22. Oh, man, this is...
31:09
Man, we gotta find this. 300, you carry, well, you wanna up that bo- that bonus or that, that clubhouse- No, 300, number in Slap Shot, and I'm not gonna inflation adjust it. Okay. Somebody please find this.
31:20
Um, all right, the other thing that bothers you. Do we have time for this, or you wanna go to a different topic? No, we got time. All right. The other thing that bothers you that we hear a lot of in sports betting is?
31:29
The money line mechanical parlay. Mm-hmm. So we don't bet the, the, the Dumbo future. Instead, we'll just keep wheeling the money over. So we start with $100. Yeah. We bet VCU to win the tournament.
31:40
Boom, we cash at the end of the first round, we take all that money, we reinvest it all the way through, and so now instead of ma- getting paid 100 to 1, we'll get paid 200 to 1 or whatever it is. All right? Mm-hmm.
31:51
But here's the problem with the mechanical parlay is Kelly Criterion. So for serious bettors, Kelly Criterion demands I'm only supposed to be betting, like, one to 3% of my bankroll on any one play. Right.
32:02
So that's great when I start out with the one unit, but by the time my team makes the Elite Eight, and now I'm stan- I'm, I got 10 units in my pocket, I'm not betting 10 units on a plus-200 money line ever.
32:14
I am so glad you're talking about this. I am so glad you're saying this because this is, y- you know, w- there is, again, there's a cottage industry of folks who love,
32:24
and sometimes they're being sincere, but there is another group who, like, they wanna sound smarter than you, so like, "Oh, well, instead of playing your future, I could have done this."
32:31
We had, by the way, we had one with Belinda Bencic here in, in a tennis tournament. She didn't get there.
32:35
She got one match short, sadly, but you know, you could've, you could've gotten 11 to 1 instead of six to one, right, in the end- Yes... if you had money line parlayed it, right? Yes. This mechanical parlay.
32:46
Uh, there's also, by the way, another pitfall to this that we never bring up, which is really a simple human thing. Some people wanna bet it, and then they just wanna forget about it.
32:55
Most people aren't gonna remember, like my buddy Tommy in DC, he's not gonna remember to bet it every round. And that's a great point, and I talked to Stormy about this. I am not the betting police.
33:04
If you wanna bet $10 or $15 on the Chicago Cubs to win the World Series every year, it's fine, you know? So absolutely, go ahead, and d- you're just, it's recreation. You're not trying to win.
33:14
You're just having fun, and there's nothing wrong with having fun considering you can spend $10,000 for a booth- Yeah... right here at, at Circa next Friday.
33:23
Uh, I will not be spending the 10,000 myself, but the, that's what the market price is for a booth for one day. Well, I'm so glad you said it because there's theory, right?
33:32
We can sit here on a m- on a weekday morning and talk about theory, but then there's reality and actual practice. And you're right.
33:38
When you get to the quarters and you have that pile of money theoretically, then you're actually making a bet with that pile of money. Yeah, but you- And that's a different story...
33:47
and the truth is you're gonna take your 2% of bankroll.
33:49
You're gonna, you're gonna take the rest of that money and stuff it in your pockets and bet whatever Wisniewski tells you to bet live, and you're gonna take 2% and bet. More Fezz on the other side.
33:57
[rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:49
Predict, play, dominate. Skill Alexander, uh, Steve Fezzik here as well. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook, always appreciated.
34:55
Uh, so m- so many [laughs] tweets there, uh, including some listener questions, by the way, for you, uh, Fezz. He's, let's see, this is, uh, Brian Grierson. "This is absolute gold.
35:07
Is there any way to track down this brave woman and get her side of the story [laughs] and her recollection of the biggest date night in VSiN history?" True. That is a great point. What would Kathy, what's her last name?
35:18
Karen Eskridge. Karen Eskridge, what would she say about all this?
35:22
[laughs] Uh, let's see, Drew from Boise, "Gil Game Show listener trivia, I was part of youngest couple on primetime Dating Game, winning bachelor number three as a college freshman in 1974." Oh, he's on the Dating Game.
35:36
Hey, Jim Lange. I used to work, uh, in a studio next to Jim Lange in San Francisco. Really? What a nice man he was. Farrah Fawcett was on the Dating Game. She looked fantastic. Wait, seriously, she was on? Oh, yes.
35:47
Farrah Fawcett was the first person that made me feel funny. You know what I mean? I could not re- I really identify the feeling. Uh, "Cancer-free from stage four NHL since May 2nd." Congratulations to you, sir.
35:57
Says, "I did Super Bowl of Sports Trivia in 1989. Won two shows at l- and lost in the semis. Hardest part was taping the show in Oxnard in July. Not exactly football weather.
36:06
Was also on Sports on Tap in '95, Sports Geniuses in 2000, hosted by the MLB Network's Matty V, Matty Vesco. I have copies of all." Good for you.
36:14
Uh, Nemesis Enforcer, "Fezz rises to the top of my list, making Woolery's bad side number one." [laughs] "Get the money racing. Someone has to find this Love Connection episode of Fezzik. What an incredible segment.
36:26
Dying laughing." Uh, Joe C, "Steve ghosted me on, on my DM to him. Please vouch for me and let him know I'm good people, Gil. LOL." Joe C, great guy, by the way. Don't, don't, don't block him. Send him my phone number.
36:36
Oh. [laughs] Phone number, okay. Yep. Uh, Mark Francis, "Gil, hilarious story about Fezz on Love Connection. Please do remind the listeners that Rodney Alcala made it on the Dating Game."
36:46
Um, is that a reference to something? I might have missed that. Uh, "N- and natron bets," not natron means, but, "Natron bets.
36:51
The flip side of this mechanical rollover parlay is I was able to bank some of the Bencic profits before the loss to Keys. There's pros and cons for sure."
36:58
Yeah, but that goes against the initial premise of why you're doing it. So you're right. But that doesn't make it, that doesn't justify the initial then? Yeah, exactly.
37:07
Um, okay, and then Rich PSM, uh, "I was also on, uh, Love Connection 1985. I was picked. They gave us $100. We agreed," in quotes, "to continue, but Chuck, RIP, kept saying, 'Are you sure?' laughing. It fizzled out.
37:20
She was geographically undesirable [laughs] in his case." All right, we have a listener question.
37:24
Somebody asked yesterday, 'cause you were, you famously, I, I think you texted in yesterday and you said you are, you are laying the money line on Duke.
37:32
How did you feel when Cooper Flagg went out and Duke was struggling? [laughs] I was thinking my, my spot would be canceled. So famously, I lost- [laughs]...
37:40
$80,000 betting Purdue as a 23-point favorite, and really it's interesting because 23 is, like, the magic number, where you, you, you rise above a 99% chance of winning.
37:50
And so I, I didn't have a lot of, um, Duke yesterday, but I, like, I laid, like, I think -4,500.
37:55
Um, but I haven't lost a big one since then, so it's been two years, so, um, things are, are working out, and it, it really isn't so much the number one seeds, which famously are 156 and 2 in the first round, but I'm not gonna bet a number one seed on the money line if they're only laying 19.
38:09
They gotta be laying 23 or more. Uh, Frankie in Vegas has a, or Frankie Vegas has a question: "Love the show. Thanks. Could you ask Fez to explain the proper formula," he asked this earlier, "when laddering bets, props?"
38:21
He says, "Please have him use light math. I failed second semester of calculus."
38:25
Yeah, so what's going on with this ladder, as most of you know, of course, it's like when you bet some dude to have over five and a half pass receptions, hey, let's play over six and a half plus 130, over seven and a half plus 175, over nine and a half plus 240, and just ladder a whole bunch of bets, okay?
38:39
So this is very complicated stuff. I believe to do this correctly, you're supposed to use, like, a Poisson distribution. I'm not even sure if that's- Hmm...
38:46
the case, but in, in general, the people that are serious about that, they don't just blindly ladder it.
38:52
They know how much each reception is worth, and they try to find the one that's optimal and bet the most on that, but they'll bet a little bit, they'll bet less on the other ones.
39:02
Um, but the whole concept if, if you're directionally right, you're obviously gonna make money, and you can make a lot of money if you're really right. Hope that helps, Frankie Vegas.
39:09
Uh, real quick, our G-Bank Best Bets of the day 'cause I wanna talk to Fez about a couple more things. G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN. Uh, I have added another baseball bet.
39:17
I am on the Twin- excuse me, the Twins was the mo- was the monthly, March-April. I added the New York Mets race to 10 wins at 17 to 1 this morning. The New York Metropolitans race to 10 wins, 17 to 1.
39:29
So I have a monthly March-April on the Twins, and now even shorter, uh, of a runway, 10 wins for the New York Mets. That would be lovely to thread the needle on both, now wouldn't it?
39:41
Again, the Mets got the, uh, Marlins for six, then the A's in there as well in that opening stretch.
39:45
Now, the fascinating thing about the Mets bet is you talk about they have three against the Astros, I believe, to start the year. Yes, at the beginning. Yeah. And you're saying, "Ah,
39:52
b- one and two maybe," but, uh, but then the cupcake schedule.
39:55
The interesting thing is you really need them to go two and one against the Astros, 'cause if they do start one and two, boy, they're gonna have to run the table then.
40:02
Well, there's a table to be run as they- They could go three and 0 against the Astros Yeah, I was just doing the wor- It could happen I was doing a worst case. Yeah.
40:08
Uh, Paul Carr, Nottingham Forest tomorrow at Ipswich Town. He's taking Nottingham Forest at w- minus 105, and then on Sunday, Arsenal, Chelsea under two and a half goals, Leicester City, Man U over two and a half goals.
40:20
Premier League picks from Paul Carr. Uh, Christopher Felica, uh, he had a couple college basketball bets and then a couple season longs in Major League Baseball.
40:29
He is on both UCLA and Boise State, each catching a point in respective games in the Big Ten and the Mountain West today. US- UCLA getting a point versus Wisconsin, Boise State getting a point versus New Mexico.
40:41
And then two season longs in Major League Baseball, Wyatt Langford to win AL MVP at 70 to 1, Will Wagner to win the American League Rookie of the Year in 15 to 1.
40:49
And then, uh, Fezzik gave us some, uh, first half unders in college hoops. We left off the one that's already started, the, uh, St. Bonnie's game. I don't know what kind of start you're at, you're out there.
40:58
We'll have to check the score. Uh, Oregon, Michigan State first half under, 66 and a half, and then Kennesaw State and Liberty first half under 66 from Fezzik.
41:07
Once again, G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN, every show, every host, every guest, all their picks recapped at the end of every show here at VSiN.
41:14
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41:41
That's vsin.com/gbank. Subject credit approval, terms, and conditions apply. By the way, update to the Players Championship. Uh, moments ago when I looked, Rory McIlroy had shot five under on the, uh, on his first nine.
41:54
It's not the front nine. He was, he started on the back nine, but five under to go to 10 under for the tournament, second round of the, uh, Players Championship, and he had the lead momentarily.
42:03
But now, m- uh, Min Woo Lee is your leader. Min Woo Lee is seven under through 14 today, 12 under for the tournament. These guys are shooting a cartoon score at this point.
42:16
Min Woo Lee at 12 under, still playing his round. Rory's one back at 11 under. He's through 12. And J.J. Spaun, a co-leader in the first round, he's two back at 10 under. He's through 14.
42:27
So those guys are really setting the mark. Uh, biggest name behind that group, Collin Morikawa right now in fifth at seven under, five back of the lead. Uh- And a VCU update. We are pretty close to on pace.
42:39
We're one point faster than I would like. It's, the last I checked, I'm 45 seconds behind, 16-13, a little more than 10 minutes left, but only three and four fouls, which is very favorable. Yes.
42:49
Um, if you're gonna bet live, you need to know the fouls on each team, and so when you're 10 minutes into a first half and you see only, you know, three and four fouls on each team, that's very favorable to, to the under.
42:59
It's all about the fouls, which is why I know guys who bet half times, and I'm like, "You're missing the point on the fouls by doing that." And you really should- Yeah...
43:06
if you're betting sides, you really should know the possession arrow. It's- Yes... actually worth half a point to have the- Ooh...
43:11
possession arrow, and no one even, like, pays attention to it, but I can tell you, the s- most serious bettors do. All right, real quick, rapid fire. Uh, the importance of exchanges at this time of year.
43:21
Yeah, whenever there's tons of liquidity in the market, and this can happen with March Madness, you're gonna be able to bet, like, -102 at ProfitX, um, or some of these other exchanges like SportTrade, et cetera.
43:32
So laying -110, you're not gonna win laying -110. I don't care if you, if you've got the best experts in the world.
43:38
Uh, if you're laying -110 the day of the game on March Madness Big Dance and you're making your biggest bets of the year, you're making a huge mistake.
43:45
However, if you like a side and you're betting -101, think about this. If you can pick 50.5%, you've got the edge. And generally speaking, Big Dance lines are efficient, but something like the NIT is less efficient.
43:56
Yeah, so the pros that I know are betting way more on select NIT sides and totals, because think about this. Every team is ultra motivated in the Big Dance, not so much in the NIT.
44:08
Last thing before we go, um, I love, you say this every year, I love this advice. I don't think I've ever said it on the air.
44:13
You believe that, uh, that people should bet, like, five bucks, 10 bucks, whatever it is, on every MLB season win total. Why? Yeah, not just MLB, but football also, college football. Bet $10
44:24
over under on every single team. Why?
44:27
'Cause this will anchor your knowledge of each and every team, and you will learn about that team more than any other team you, you could ever imagine because you've got skin in the game, so you're paying attention every night to each and every final score.
44:41
Or whatever amount of money it requires you to pay attention to it. That's for sure. Thank you, Steve. Appreciate it. That was awesome. Thanks for getting me. Love Connection's finest, Stevie Fezzik.
44:49
Stormy's next on Money Moves. Enjoy it from VSiN.
A Numbers Game
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
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A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
