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Dec 27, 2024
A Numbers Game | HR 2 | 12.27.24
A Numbers Game | HR 2 | 12.27.24
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0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:35
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. The Numbers Game, where sports betting lives. It's Gil Alexander. Thanks for tuning in. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV.
0:46
Everybody taking us in, I appreciate it. Always appreciate you making us part of your morning here, uh, each and every morning, Monday through Friday.
0:53
Uh, coming up this hour, Chris Felica standing by, the Bear from Fox Sports and The Bear Bets Podcast, now broadcast on FS1, boys and girls. You can see his, uh, his pretty face there on the old FS1.
1:05
You get Joy Taylor and then you get Chris Felica back-to-back on FS1. Um, before, I, I wanna read this one tweet and, and, uh, Chris, you can answer this for me. This is from Dell Mind the Gap Radio.
1:17
Uh, he asked me, I'll answer, but you, you- we'll get your expert opinion. He says, "Do you think these bowls are being over-bet? Navy plus seven now, uh, close to a pick 'em.
1:25
Texas Tech was, uh, catching three, now they're minus two." Your thoughts, sir? I don't get the Texas Tech move. Like I, I don't know. I haven't really followed the, the portal move as much as maybe some other ones.
1:38
But the Navy moves re- I mean, I, I, I don't know. I mean, it's hard for me to comment because I was the one that played Navy at plus six and a half or plus seven, like however long ago that was.
1:49
But yeah, the- I think this is... I think it probably... And I'm actually, I bet N- win Navy plus 190 on the money line back then.
1:55
I'm actually gonna buy a little, little back now on Oklahoma, whatever, see what the, the best money line I can get on that and, and guarantee my, uh, myself a profit.
2:02
'Cause I, I do think this might be one of those Steve Fezzik a bridge too fars where- [laughs]... the, the move is, the move is a little bit ridiculous. You don't think Wazzu's move is ridiculous though, do you? No. No.
2:14
I mean, they got no chance. I mean, they, there were rumblings that they even were gonna, were, were considering just not playing. I mean, they, they have nobody.
2:20
But does that mean I can lay 17, 17 and a half, whatever it is, with Syracuse? No. Uh, n- not, not at all.
2:26
I, but I, I actually would be looking at potentially playing some, uh, Syracuse player prop maybe under, maybe a, a Kalum McCord under passing yards. I'm waiting for that to post.
2:37
I think it's probably gonna be somewhere around 324, somewhere around there.
2:41
So and I'm looking at playing under because this'll probably be a game that Syracuse gets a big, and Fran Brown's able to bring in a lot of backups in there and get, get some guys some, uh, some playing time to reward them for a good season.
2:53
But yeah, today's games were, uh, were rough for me to play. I, I- it looks like it's one of those g- days where the world is all on the same side.
3:02
Everybody, everybody kinda loves Vandy, everybody kinda loves Syracuse, everybody kinda loves Texas A&M, everybody loves Navy. But like the, the, the- these are the, the tread carefully type of days for me.
3:15
L- like the, uh, the, the tweeter said, when, when you've got a, got all these moves that are going one way, that, uh, that's deadly. And, and the dogs really haven't started barking yet.
3:24
Yesterday they did, where you had Rutgers covered and you had a couple, uh, you had Toledo went out right and you had, uh, Arkansas State went out right.
3:30
So maybe we're finally seeing a little bit of a, uh, a run on dogs in these games because, uh, uh, the numbers have moved just a bit too much. Chris, let me, let me get this straight.
3:39
Are you suggesting that when a lot of people, uh, seem to be on one side that things sometimes go wrong? Is that what you're suggesting? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
3:46
It, it does seem to, to go that way- [laughs]... doesn't it? It does. E- even though, well, not in the NFL.
3:50
The NFL's the exclusion there, where, I mean, the, the, the, the, the favorites are just winning at a ridiculous rate.
3:57
And, and Evan Abrams, my former colleague at ESPN, who's now at Action Network, has had some, uh, some tweets out there about what the, what the favorites outright had been, like winning at, like 75% since like week five or something.
4:09
It's, it's just ridiculous how, uh... And then, then look forward to next week of the NFL when you're gonna have these ridiculous lines where you're gonna see- Ah...
4:16
like the Bronco, the Broncos minus seven and a half against the Chief and, a- and just things like that. That's the, that's the most fun guessing lines of the year- Yeah... where I'm like, "I don't know. Seven?"
4:26
[laughs] And they're like, "No, it's one, Gil. Thanks. Good job." [laughs] Um, well let's, since we're on college football though, let, let's actually get to some that you do have- Yeah... bets on that w- lines exist.
4:35
And let's do this chronologically. We'll, we'll sort of, uh, sandwich in one of the college football playoff games.
4:41
But let's start with a New Year's Eve day game between Louisville and UW, uh, Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, which is also a nice, uh, always nice scenery there. But you're on, uh, you're on Washington here.
4:53
Yeah, the, the Sun Bowl, Jeff Schwartz on, uh, on the pod this week said that was his favorite, uh, bowl experience- Yeah... of all the bowls that, that he played in.
5:01
Uh, he, he loved El Paso and the communities behind it and great swag. And, uh, and they had a massive win in the game. But I like UW getting two and a half, uh, i- in this game.
5:10
I, I think Louisville is one of those teams that have been kinda gutted by the portal. Uh, Corey Brooks, their best wide receiver is out. Uh, Tyler Shuck, their quarterback is out.
5:18
They lost a couple of defensive starters as well.
5:21
And, and you look at the other side, it, it's, it's been a difficult bowl season for me to really find plays in like the non, uh, playoff type bowls, just because you try to play that amor psych- amateur psychologist like we've talked about in the past, and i- it's hard to come up with a lot of plays.
5:35
But I do think in Jedd Fisch's first year at Washington, uh, I, I think they have a majority of their team still there, slight underdog.
5:44
I, I can see this game mattering a little bit more to UW to kinda send Jed, to, not to send Jedd Fisch out in, in his first year with a winning record, but just kind of building something there.
5:54
And I think the team will be mo- mo- motivated to play more than Louisville. So I'm gonna take two and a half UW.
6:00
Yeah, when we were kids, by the way, the Sun Bowl, I don't know if you remember this, when Thurman Thomas and Oklahoma State were playing in the Sun Bowl, it snowed. Do you remember that? Yeah, I, I do.
6:07
I believe I was- Yeah... w- was that the day of the John Hancock Sun Bowl? Maybe. Maybe, [laughs] maybe, yes. Mi- Miami had a snow game one there two, one year too against Wa- against, uh- While Washington State. Ah.
6:18
[clears throat] I got bowl memories. Random bowl memories- [laughs]... on the channel. All right, let's go to... So that night, New Year's Eve, is when the, uh, college football, uh, playoff quarter finals begin.
6:28
Uh, it's Penn State and Boise State. Penn State a 11-point favorite. Uh, Chris, be nice to the people of Boise, would you? What do you got here?
6:36
Well, uh, I, I think there's some 10 and a halves out there, but even if there aren't 10 and a halves still out there, uh, I'd lay it with Penn State here.
6:43
L- look, schedule matters, and I know Boise State did go to Oregon in, early in the year a- and they played great and lost by a field goal to the Ducks, who were undefeated.
6:53
But we saw it in the first round of the playoff how Indiana, not s- not, not tested, got rolled by Notre Dame. SMU, not tested, went on the road, rolled by Penn State. Like, the, these things matter.
7:06
And I just think Penn State now, uh, we talked about as well how the five seed and the six seed, those were gonna be the spots that you wanted to be in.
7:13
And now you've got the conference title game losers with easier paths, uh, to the semis than the, the conference title winners.
7:19
I just think what we saw from Penn State the last couple of weeks defensively, creating the turnovers that they did against SMU, offensively in the Big Ten championship game, playing the best game that they have played all year.
7:31
I'm, I'm not saying this is a Penn State team that's gonna go on and win the national championship. But I think against Boise, I think the Broncos are gonna have a hard time getting a lot of stop.
7:40
And if they have to rely on Madson to make plays through the air because, uh, that front shuts down Jeanty, I don't know how that's gonna go as well.
7:47
And you saw Abdul Carter and that defensive line have a ton of success against Boise and U last week. I don't know how Boise State's gonna be able to block him.
7:56
Um, this is the type of game that James Franklin and the Lions usually win and win big when they're favored in that, like, 7 to 14-point range. Usually they dominate their competition.
8:07
I think these are the types of games where they can puff their chest out, uh, get a big win, and I think Penn State will move on to play the winner of the, uh, the Georgia-Notre Dame game in the semis.
8:15
James Franklin keenly aware of each and every spread. You do- Yes, there is... you do not have a play on any of the other three quarters on New Year's Day? No, he- here's how I would be, be looking. I... It's funny.
8:28
I talked to a couple of people about Georgia-Notre Dame, and I said to, uh, two people, I said... And I kind of probably shouldn't have said this. I, I was like, "I kind of like Notre Dame maybe a little bit."
8:41
And the first person who I spoke to is someone who
8:45
sees a lot of Georgia and is familiar with their team and has gone to practice, and he said to me, he goes, he goes, "They might win, but just so you know, I've seen Gunner Stockton practice against our one defense for the last couple of years, and trust, he can throw it, and he can play."
9:01
Ooh. So yeah. So how, how that, how that translates to, uh, on the field against a really good Notre Dame secondary, uh, on January 1st, [laughs] who the heck knows? So, uh, he, he feels pretty good.
9:12
And then the second person that I spoke to is someone who is familiar with both teams and really follows the sport [laughs] religiously. And I said the same thing to him. I go, "I don't know. Do, do...
9:22
Can you get behind Notre Dame maybe getting, getting a point and a half or a, or money line or whatever?" And he goes, "Really? I, I'm surprised you would say that."
9:30
He goes, "'Cause the, the way these two teams are kind of built right now, uh, with the strength of their team, a quarterback that's kind of maybe a run first in, in the trenches," he goes, "they're both kind of the same type of team, except for Georgia has a heck of a lot more talent than Notre Dame."
9:43
Hmm.
9:43
So, so that's just two, two, two opinions from people who watch and follow and break the stuff down from a, uh, a player and a, and a matchup standpoint, that they seem to both like Georgia, thinking Georgia is the, uh, the better side.
9:56
I could ma- If I can get 14 and wait it out like did with, uh, Clemson against Texas, a lot of people did. I know Sammy P did and grabbed 14 and kind of lived through that.
10:07
That might be the way to go, w- maybe grabbing 14 against A- w- with, with ASU. Uh, you know they're gonna be wound up. You know they're gonna be excited.
10:14
I don't know how great their passing game is gonna be without their receivers, but I just still, the, the Texas offense, uh, if they force Ewers to make throws, can he? I'm not, I'm not too sure.
10:25
And then Ohio State-Oregon, I, I just think two best teams in the country right now. It's a shame that they have to play here and not in, in a round or two later on.
10:34
It feels like everyone is kind of realizing Ohio State is the highest-rated, power-rated team in the country. Lost by a point at odds in the first game.
10:43
Uh, defensively they've made some changes since then, which would probably help them schematically against Dillon Gabriel and that Ducks offense.
10:50
Uh, if I had to play at one of those pick and pools, I would play Ohio State. I'd lay the two and a half.
10:56
Wouldn't feel great about it because again, this is just a, a, a game where you play it 10 times, and each team probably wins f- All right. But Penn State is the play among the, uh- Yes, yes... national quarterfinals.
11:06
Exactly. All right. Mm-hmm. And then there's the, uh... It used to be, you know, the, uh, the post. Remember there was always an awkward bowl or two after New Year's Day? Now it's- Yes... post quarters, pre semis.
11:15
They're still awkward. Uh, Ole Miss, when Lane Kiffin is not bitching and moaning on Twitter- [laughs]... uh, he's got a game to prepare for. 14 and a half point favorites against Duke in the Gator Bowl.
11:25
Where'd you go this way? Yeah, I used to love, like, the, you'd have, like, that Birmingham Bowl on like January 6th. [laughs] Like in between, like... Do you, but- Right... yeah, th- this is a game, like,
11:34
I love Ole Miss in this game. And I, I was kind of waiting to see i- if they were gonna have a ton of opt-outs, and they don't. I mean, Troy Harris is hurt, so he's not gonna play. But Jaxson Dart is playing.
11:43
Uh, Walter Nolen is playing. Majority of their players [laughs] are playing. And l- I, look, I can understand it if people say, "I don't think they're gonna be motivated. Duke can win 10 games."
11:53
However, Duke doesn't have Malik Murphy, their starting quarterback, a, a team that already was challenged offensively.
11:59
And I think the biggest factor here is that Duke was an opponent of SMU, and SMU needed to stop a two-point conversion in overtime to beat Duke.
12:10
I think this is one of those situations where Lane Kiffin- Hold, hold your thought here, Chris. I won't hold my thought We'll get to the end of this. More NFL as well. I probably should've been looking at the clock.
12:16
Sorry. Next, coming back The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment of The Numbers Game is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches.
12:32
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12:56
Back on our Numbers Game, live from Circa, Gil Alexander. The Chicago Bears still trying to score a touchdown as we speak. They'll get there eventually. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
13:03
Johnny Ringo, "Smooth bet of the week," ah, the smooth bet of the week. You remember when we used to do that? "I said Kelly will be sick on New Year's Day, minus 140. Get it before the number is gone," he says.
13:15
Oh, that's getting steamed already. Mike Lowry, "Gilly Ice, not sure if you've mentioned this or not, but if Buffalo wins on Sunday, Josh Allen may not play Week 18. Does that play into the minds of the MVP voters?"
13:27
Uh, there's no way to know, uh, Mike, if that will be the case or not. Again, there's 50 folks voting on this, but they are human beings, last I checked, and recency bias could be a thing with some. You never know.
13:40
Uh, uh, we didn't see Josh Allen play this week, and we did see Lamar go crazy against Cleveland, if that happens, right? That could just add to Lamar.
13:48
Uh, Ice Cold Gambler, "Jason must be," uh, talking about Jason Weingart, he said, "must be puffing a cloud of smoke. That's why his video was, was not on."
13:54
[laughs] Square Bob 2022, Robert says, "I got 80 to 1 no touchdown last night at the Westgate.
13:59
Circa had 135 to 1, but I'm OCD and I didn't want my account balance to have a 90 on the end, and I didn't believe I'd hit my second no touchdown prop in 14 days, so I settled for 80 to 1. Happy Hanukkah."
14:12
It's funny with gamblers, right? We have... Everybody has little, uh, weird quirks like that. Uh, not everybody, but some of us do with account balances and bets. Uh, Iowa Pete, we never talk about that.
14:22
It's, it's really true. Iowa Pete, "Please keep me entertained today, Gil. Just started my annual winter escape drive from Iowa to Vegas." Hey, man. Iowa Pete, I'm here for you, buddy. I'm trying.
14:31
Uh, Bruce Dobingen, "Even when I was working for 30-plus years as sports media, I asked why are reporters voting on awards?
14:39
Vindictive MLB Hall of Fame voters is the most egregious example, but why is the press box deciding who will win, uh, you know, $100,000 of K in bonuses," or, uh, hundreds of thousands, he says, "in bonuses?
14:53
Those covering the story now are part of the story?" Uh, Bruce, I, I couldn't agree with you more about the vindictive nature of some of this and the biases that exist.
15:03
Again, I always talk about the NFL Hall of Fame, and before Peter King or when Peter King was, you know, just getting to be a national writer, at the Sloan Sports Con- uh, Analytics Conference at MIT back in the day, me, a little pitcher, walked up to Peter King 'cause I knew that he had not voted Art Monk the Redskins', uh, Hall of Fame wide receiver, now a Hall of Fame wide receiver.
15:22
But he, he didn't vote him in for nine years. Uh, Art Monk, who finished his career with the most catches in the history of the NFL. You are a wide receiver. Your first task is to catch the football.
15:31
Not to mention the fact that Art Monk got double-teamed and so everybody else, Gary Clark and Ricky Sanders, could do their thing. And, uh, he...
15:37
And I said to him, I go, "If you had all 22 footage, do you think you might have voted Q- Monk in?" I was being very bold. He, he looked at me, he goes, "Yeah, you're probably right. I might have."
15:44
But he was a Giants beat reporter who took the position, "Oh, well, Clark is the one we're scared of." So there's all kinds of biases, biases about this stuff. So you're, you're right.
15:53
And then there is a vindictive thing. You know, um, people, you know, it, it... Steve Carlton, for instance, never talked to the press, but he was so good enough that he still got in.
16:03
Uh, it never helped Barry Bonds beyond, you know, beyond the other stuff, that he wasn't a nice human being either. So you're right, that stuff shouldn't play in.
16:11
Uh, C Spackler, "Starting to get cash out offers on the Lamar futures. Use that bully pulpit for us, Gil." [laughs] Hey, man, I'm try- I'm trying. Um, and, uh, and on and on with the tweets.
16:21
Let's get back to Chris Fallica, who's kind enough to join us, uh, for a second segment. Uh, before he was rudely erupted by the commercial, courtesy of Progressive Insurance- Yes...
16:29
by the way, uh, you were, you were making your case for Ole Miss. If you could finish that out, sir. Yeah.
16:33
Yeah, yeah, and, and the biggest reason for this is, you know, I'm kind of joking about it with Lane Kiffin and being social media.
16:39
I already know, well, I don't know, but I'm guessing Lane Kiffin probably has the tweet ready with SMU 28, Duke 27, or whatever the hell the final score was, and having it Ole Miss- Oh, here we go... 57, Duke 12.
16:55
You're so right. He is gonna wanna make a point. Yes. He's gonna wanna beat Duke by a million and say, "Yeah, yeah, okay, I guess we're not as good as SMU." They're gonna absolutely annihilate Duke in this game.
17:07
So I, I... That is, that, that might be my favorite play of the three that I just gave you. And before we, we move on to other games, I, I wanna, uh, continue the conversation here.
17:18
Uh, and I guess number one would be if the writers and media and broadcasting aren't voting on the awards, who should be voting on the war- the awards? 'Cause I would say...
17:29
Like, if you'd say players, I guess would be the knee-jerk reaction.
17:32
But these players and coaches are so focused on what they're doing week to week, like, I don't know if they have the time to be able to see big picture as to what's going on as an entirety.
17:42
They're so focused on their opponent week in and week out. That would be number one. And number two, Albert Belle is probably the biggest indictment of the- 100%... the, the hate for...
17:51
They'd be like, he, he was an idiot to the media, but it, the most feared hitter of, of, from, like... Well, you take him from what? Like '93 to '98 or whatever.
18:01
There, there wasn't a hitter more feared than him in the, in the game as a whole because people would just walk Barry Bonds.
18:07
I mean, I guess that would mean he was feared, but, but it wa- it was like Albert Belle, Frank Thomas. But Al- Albert Belle should be in the Hall of Fame. And I love Keith's thought, by the way- Yeah...
18:16
about, about Lamar Jackson as Offensive Player of the Year, and this was the case that we were making earlier in the year about Joe Burrow as well.
18:23
Like, like [clears throat] why can't you be The literal definition of most valuable player and say, "If Josh Allen isn't the quarterback for the Bills and they have to play Mitch Trubisky, they're probably seven and eight," or whatever.
18:37
Why can't you say that and say, "You know what? Lamar Jackson is having an unbelievable offensive season. No one is having a better offensive season than him. He should be Offensive Player of the Year."
18:47
I, I, I couldn't agree more- The b-... uh, with you. The point is you can say that you can interpret it any way you want is the point.
18:53
Yeah, my, my only thing, and maybe I wasn't being articulate, the, is that everybody, you, me, everybody, we have our own biases on, on all kinds of things. Correct. Correct.
19:01
But, but at least take the regional one out, right? Like Peter King- Right... was a Giants beat reporter, and he, like sort of, you know, he's like, "Ah, this is what the Skins do to us, and so that's how I'm voting it."
19:11
It's like, well bro, if you had a broader picture of it- [laughs]...
19:14
if you were a national, and which he wasn't at the time, but if you were a national reporter who viewed it all, uh, at least that's one less bias perhaps. Perhaps, maybe not. Right. Right? Uh, obviously- Mm-hmm...
19:26
you know, the Albert Bell thing's a great example 'cause Albert Bell, you look at his stats, it's like this guy's not in the Hall of Fame. Are you kidding me? Uh, because he was not a, he was not a cuddly guy.
19:35
I would even suggest this. If you gave Lamar Jackson's stats to Josh Allen, we would not even be having a conversation.
19:43
But because Lamar Jackson's not as camera-friendly as, uh, as, uh, Josh Allen is in interviews, I, I do th- and he's got two MVPs, people are like, "Well, I don't wanna give him a third. I don't like him as much." Right?
19:55
There's- It's the Jo- it's the Jokic, uh, Embiid argument- That's right... in the NBA from a couple years ago. There's all kinds of biases, yeah.
20:01
Uh, real quick 'cause we gotta get, we got three minutes, so we gotta go rapid fire. What's your favorite NFL play? I love the Vikings plus one. I, I know there was a plus one at DraftKings. I still think it's there.
20:10
I, I didn't check before I came on. I think the line is disrespectful, uh, to Minnesota. I get the love for Green Bay. I, I get the fact that they're gonna be a dangerous team in the playoff.
20:20
Minnesota already went up there and won, and befo- until Green Bay actually goes and beats Detroit, and beats Minnesota, and beats Philadelphia, wins these big kind of showdown type of games, I'm not laying points with them.
20:32
Minnesota is the most disrespected team in the league. All they continue to do is go out and find ways to win. Sam Darnold's having a great season. They got a ton of weapons on offense.
20:42
Uh, that's a real home field advantage in that building. Uh, I'd grab the one with, with, with Minnesota, and if, if, if you can't get one and it's a pick, I'd be okay with that too.
20:50
Complete pick 'em right now at this point between the Packers- Okay... and the Vikings.
20:53
Huge implications of course in that game for number one seed as the Vikings still try to get to that and win the NFC North in the process. All right, two soccer questions to finish. One- Yes...
21:04
one a bet that you have talked about before, one a current bet that is about to take place. Let's talk about the one you talked about before, which was Man City and relegation. Update us on that if you would.
21:13
Yeah, no, you know, I had said to make the argument earlier to you, um, you know, we couldn't get it in one week, w- was that Man City to be relegated at 10 to one I think is worth a play.
21:25
You know, whether you wanna call lunch money, pizza money, pock, couch money, whatever. Found money. A- and here's why I say that. Uh, a- and I think Paul, you had had a conversation with him about it as well.
21:36
Uh, they're in the midst of this, the battle with court proceeding, litigate whatever, with 115 charges against them of violating financial fair play rules, where the penalty could be a severe docking of points.
21:51
And I almost wonder if there's a little sense with Manchester City that, "Okay, we're gonna get hit pretty hard with this game." Uh, we- Pep Guardiola has come out and has basically said, "I'm here.
22:04
I'm gonna stay through next year."
22:05
And I almost get the sense, like I wonder if they know this is coming, that they're gonna get docked and hit with like a 50 or a 60-point point deduction, which is gonna send them to the championship league next year.
22:17
And, you know, like Pep will be there. They'll still have their players.
22:21
They'll still have their, their, their Middle Eastern money flow to build their, their team back up and get back in there, and Pep will be there to get them back from the championship, the, the Prem next year.
22:30
So I think 10 to one, I, I, I think that's worth a bet, um, because I think there is a real possibility that they get hit hard- Wow... and do get sent down.
22:38
And look, they're not gonna pr- they're probably not gonna make Champions League anyway.
22:41
They're out of the Premier League race, so, like, this is one of those year where Pep has even said, "This is our year to, to, to feel pain and be punished."
22:48
And I think maybe, uh, there, there might be a little something more to that than what he's saying. All right, and still there at 10 to one is what you're saying? Still there? That's the number?
22:54
Yeah, I saw 10 to one at FanDuel the other day. Okay. Five seconds. Uh, Venezia, Napoli, what you got? Napoli has allowed I think five goals at home this year. Uh, Venice is one of the, one of the worst teams in Serie A.
23:06
Napoli to, to win tonight, or to keep a clean sheet minus, it's minus, uh, 120. But Venice is a terrible team away from home. Chris Falica, ladies and gentlemen. Bear Bets Pod. Check it out at Fox Sports. Carl Sack next.
23:16
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23:52
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Skill Alexander, we got tweets at Beating The Book.
23:59
This is from, uh, I wanna get the, uh, gentleman's name right 'cause I appreciate him t- uh, tweeting this in. Bob Sacamano.
24:06
Bob Sacamano, who, uh, I mentioned after week two of the NFL season, I was like, "Yeah, if Jayden Daniels could just be introduced to Terry McLaurin, boy, oh boy, is this gonna be something."
24:15
And sure enough, they did introduce him to him, and it was unlocked. Uh, Jayden Daniels just soared after that. Uh, he tweets it. He says, "When Jayden Daniels targets Terry McLaurin, his passer rating is 140.0."
24:28
Keep in mind, again, 158.3 is perfect. "That is the highest rating in a 75 target season since 2015, Russell Wilson to Doug Baldwin," of all people. Wow. Um, thanks for that little note from Bob Sacamano.
24:41
That's a, uh, that's a great stat. Da- Daniels to, uh, to McLaurin. Let's go through it. Montana-Rice, Marino-Clayton, Daniels-McLaurin. Okay, maybe I'm ahead of myself.
24:51
Uh, James Saad, "Don't forget Albert Belle," talking about the, uh, you know, Hall of Fame snubs.
24:55
He says, "Don't forget Albert Belle," uh, don't call him Joey, "should have won the '95, the 1995 MVP, but the writers didn't like him and gave it to Mo Vaughn when Belle went 50/50 in terms of homers and doubles in 144 games on a team that won 100 games."
25:13
Dude, I did not forget, and if you just take a snapshot of Albert Belle's career stats, you don't, you don't even have to pore over them.
25:20
It just s- it just sticks out as instant Hall of Fame when you see all the gaudy numbers. Primetimecowboys_cubs1, "Yo, bro." Hey, man.
25:29
"How much is it gonna hurt to join the rest of America and root [laughs] and root for America's team to beat the Eagles this weekend? Happy Easter." Happy, [laughs] happy Easter to you, too.
25:38
Happy Tu B'Shevat while you're at it, my friend. Um, here's the thing. Um, yeah, do I really think that, uh, Washington could possibly win the division? Uh, well, I mean, Jalen Hurts, uh, concussion protocol still.
25:51
Yeah, I'm kind of have to root for the Cowboys, I guess. So it doesn't feel right, to answer your question. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he was kind enough to join us earlier this week via the progressive guest line.
26:01
Now he's in person, uh, playing the role of Steve Fezzik and Dr. Bob today, who have, uh, colluded to not come on the show today. I don't know what that's all about. It's Carl Sack from Killer Sports. How you doing, man?
26:11
I'm doing great. Thanks for having me on. Great to see you. Uh, Carl, you and I, uh, we li- let's say, reared on Bob's knee- Mm-hmm... in the sports handicapping world.
26:19
We could not have asked for a better mentor when it came to, uh, modeling and that kind of thing. He's awesome. Awesome guy. Um, we also noted that he was just releasing plays, so I don't know.
26:28
He said he's [laughs] on a drive. Yeah. So I hope he's not texting and driving at the same time. Maybe he has his, uh, his people doing that. I hope so. Uh, you did basketball for him.
26:36
For those who are not familiar with Carl, Carl Sack, um, Carl used to work for, work with Bob. You were, you did his NBA plays. Um, NBA guru is how you were known. Yep.
26:48
Um, I like to say you're the, you're the greatest NBA handicapper I've ever run across. Some people say, "Oh, Aaron Renning is." He might be, too. Um, both of you are great.
27:00
Um, that makes you a little uncomfortable when I say that, I know, when I, when I do, but you have tremendous success over the years doing this. You're still doing it at killercappers.com? Yeah. Still doing it.
27:11
Yeah, still doing it. Um, split off from Bob, uh, to kind of do my own thing, uh, beginning of last season and, um, just churning away. We had a good season last season, and off to another good start this year.
27:24
And what, uh, how's it, r- a good start this year again. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
27:28
Can you, without obviously giving the, uh, you know, the secret sauce or anything, what would you say is at the core of, of what makes it so successful for you? If you had to identify.
27:37
I think it's just covering as many bases as you can. I think it's, it's important to have a math model and look at things from a fundamental perspec- fundamental perspective.
27:47
Um, I think it's, y- there's a lot of guys that maybe are just math guys. Um, I think it's important to look at all the situational stuff. Um,
27:56
and I think it's also really important to, um, be able to do a good job valuing injuries as they occur, rotation changes, stuff like that.
28:08
See, that to me, that part right there, that's what made Bob so successful all these years. His ability to quantify injuries and replacements, I think, more than anything probably made him successful.
28:18
I don't know if he would say that, but to me, that's what it, that's, that was at the core of that.
28:22
You're just, and just so I, just to sort of clarify what you're saying, so you have your model, but when you say, we tend to use, Bob does this interchangeably, too, and I always think it's like, it throws off folks, but the bad word that people use is trends.
28:34
We're not a trends show. We don't, we don't love that, right? Oh, they're eight and two on a Thursday and that kind of thing. Right.
28:39
But you have a database, killersports.com, a database, and Bob says, so it's his model and it's his technical analysis, but technical analysis, the historical stuff, the trends, w- we're kind of all using that synonymously is what we're saying.
28:54
But you're saying that's part of your secret sauce and that if you don't have that, you're not being thorough about it. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, if you want to, um,
29:04
figure out how the market is doing, i- is reacting to certain situations, we've talked about, um, you know, like in NFL, how, what happens when a team who i- is a double-digit dog pulls off an upset, you know?
29:22
Like, it's basically the win of their season. They just, oh my gosh, is there a letdown coming? Well, if you look at the historical data, the market doesn't seem to factor in that letdown that does occur enough.
29:33
And so being able to kind of factor in the situational stuff to pile it onto the fundamental analysis, I think, is really important. Or conversely, maybe to take you off, right? If your math model says- Yeah...
29:46
oh, team A, 10 and a half point favorite, my model is telling me I should be betting, I should be laying the points with team A, but this historical stuff is telling me no, in this situation, it ki- despite what my model is saying, this ain't the time to do it, that kind of thing.
30:01
I'm, I'm sure that's a great, I mean, that's, that fundamentally is a phenomenal filter to have, and most handicappers, let's face it, don't have that or aren't, or don't have the time to do it, quite frankly.
30:12
I, more and more are getting into it, for sure. Yeah.
30:14
I see a lot of people on Twitter posting, you know, "Hey, uh, th- this is the situation that, uh, we're looking at," and, um, but you just hope that- as a handicapper, they're also looking at the fundamentals and have a model that they've back-tested and tracked for, you know, years and figured out, "Okay, how accurate is this?"
30:32
I w- I can't wait to dive into Killer Sports. By the way, Killer Sports is where Carl does his thing now. Killercappers.com is where the picks are.
30:41
Um, I can't wait to see some of the tennis stuff 'cause I'm sure I will have that experience as well, which is, you know, while I'm betting tennis, in particular, so my hard courts work out well, my outdoor hard courts, but when I get to clay and particularly grass, grass I should just take a vacation for God sakes, for the six weeks of grass season.
30:57
But I'm curious how much of that I'll find is like, oh, because this or that or the other, right? We do have the surface data. We are missing a little bit of st- uh, I think, um, points, uh, and maybe totals.
31:11
Uh, we have more so the, like, player-on-player odds. Um- Okay... like, I sort of besides- Yeah... in tennis. Besides.
31:18
I don't, I don't know much about tennis, and so I shared this, um, is, I don't, I'm gonna butcher his name, but Eliu Funs- Fustel? Eliu Fus- Elihu Feustel. [laughs] Dad, yeah. Yes. I butchered it. Elihu Feustel.
31:30
I know he- I thought you were going for a tennis player. I'm like, "I don't know that player." [laughs] Yeah. I, I shared this w- uh, with him because I know he's a tennis bettor. He is a tennis bettor.
31:37
And he came back, and he's like, "Oh, you've got a, you got some more data you need to add here." Yes.
31:41
So we're still piecing it together, but, um, we've got some basic data at least for the last 15 years or so with men's and women's. Elihu Feustel
31:49
may be the smartest dude there is in sports betting, so smart that perhaps sports betting can't contain him anymore. That's how, that's how I like to view it.
31:56
And by the way, if somebody said, "Nominate someone for the Sports Betting Hall of Fame," that's my guy. Yeah. Elihu Feustel. Yeah, seriously. He's, I, I have that much respect for him.
32:04
All right, so NBA today, what did you land on? Anything? Yeah, so the, the market's moved around a little bit, um, and I think it's moving in the right direction in, in most, most games.
32:16
I think the best thing on the board right now is the Phoenix team total under, which is about 112 and a half.
32:26
Um, we talked about this a little bit on Wednesday when I gave out the Phoenix/Denver under, and that is that I don't think that the- Which cashed, by the way. Yep...
32:36
I don't think that the market has adjusted enough for Booker being out in addition to Grayson Allen. Um, that really hurts their offense, helps their defense potentially.
32:47
Um, and then on the Dallas side, you've got, uh, Luka out. Uh, that obviously hurts their offense. Uh, this team's played really well. Dal- Dallas has played really well this season without Luka.
32:59
They're, they're seven and three without him. I'm not sug- by no means am I suggesting they're a better team without him. Um, but the market seems to react, uh, a- and value him maybe more than he's potentially worth.
33:13
So, and Dallas just steps up, especially when Kyrie's playing. Um, Jason Kidd has a, a history of doing well off of embarrassing losses. Um,
33:25
it, it's pretty extreme actually, and it's something I like to ride when I see Dallas coming off of, like, a double-digit ATS loss like we saw. Um, so I like Dallas in this game. I like the under in this game.
33:37
Um, and so it only makes sense to go with a, a Phoenix team total under. Phoenix team total under. What are you seeing that number at right about now? About 112 and a half I would say. 112 and a half under.
33:49
Phoenix/Dallas, the Phoenix team total under. Um, interesting comment about Luka vis-a-vis the market, which I'll, I'll get into, follow up on after the break.
33:57
Uh, but you also have some Week 17 thoughts in the National Football League we can get into as well. Yeah, we've got some situations that are, that are- Okay... coming up- Let's do-... that we can discuss.
34:04
Let's do that after the break. Carl Sack in studio, Numbers Game, V- the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
34:20
Coming up, top of the show, Monday Moves from 9:00 to 2:00 Eastern. Stormy Bonnetone, as is the case with, uh, [clears throat] each and every Friday, Stormy welcomes Jeff Schwartz onto the program.
34:30
And can we give a shout-out to, uh, Stormy? Stormy with, uh, quite the assignment, uh, in the quarterfinals of college football. She is gonna be on the sideline.
34:39
Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit in the booth, Holly Rowe will be there. Stormy at the Rose Bowl. Rose Bowl doing, uh, big things in the, uh, quarterfinals on New Year's Day. Congratulations to her for that.
34:52
Uh, definitely send, uh, Stormy for love, uh, some love on the Ohio State/Oregon game on New Year's Day from the Rose Bowls.
34:59
John Hanson after, uh, Money Moves from 2:00 to 3:00 with prop points, and then Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00 with Make It Rain, although I think Seidenberg's in for Shine again.
35:06
Uh, coming up, VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. Uh, which brings us to our GBank Plays of the day. GBank, the official bank of VSiN, and, uh, there are plenty, beginning with mine. Uh, Chiefs cashed.
35:19
Hey, thanks for putting that up, guys. Keich, uh, Chiefs cashed this past Thursday, or this past Wednesday, pardon me. I g- this whole week with Christmas being Wednesday, it got me all flustered.
35:26
Commanders, I'm on the, uh, Commodores minus four and a half. I got the worst of that number against the Falcons. I'm on the Panthers plus the points, plus the eight and a half against the Buccaneers on Sunday.
35:35
And on Monday I'm on the Lions laying the three and a half, uh, against the Niners. That has huge implications for the Lions.
35:42
If the Vikings lose on Sunday, that would be for the number one seed, and of course, the NFC North in the process for the Lions. And I am on Navy. I get it.
35:51
I got the worst of it on, on Navy, um, from, uh, f- because they were a bigger f- they were a bigger dog earlier in the week, but again, I had other things going on. I'm on Navy first half.
36:02
I'm on Navy money line today in college football, in a game that kicks off in about 13 minutes, by the way. Paul Carr, three Premier League picks.
36:09
Arsenal, Ipswich Town over one and a half goals in the first half at even money. Leicester City, Man C- uh, Man City over three and a half. That's on Sunday at minus 105.
36:17
And then on Monday, Man U and Newcastle under two and a half goals at plus 135. By the way, the Arsenal/Ipswich Town game is today.
36:24
Chris Fallica, the Bear, Penn State laying the points against Boise State in the quarterfinals. Then in, uh, random bowl games, he's on UW plus the points against Louisville.
36:35
He's laying the wood with Ole Miss minus 14 and a half against Duke. I, uh, kind of agree with his thinking that Lane Kiffin has the tweet ready to go comparing them to, uh, to what SMU is doing. Vikings
36:47
He's taking the Vikings against the Packers. Uh, it's a pick 'em now, but he got 'em plus one. And then, uh, Napoli to, uh, keep the clean sheet versus Venezia in soccer as well from the bear.
36:57
And then finally, uh, Carl Sack, who joined us here and is with us still, he's on the Suns team total under 112 and a half in the Suns game tonight.
37:07
Uh, once again, G Bank, the official bank of VSiN, recommends every bettor make the G Bank Visa Signature Card part of their betting toolbox.
37:14
Save up to three to five percent on cash advance fees, earn cash back rewards on eligible betting transactions, and now for a limited time, you'll get a $250 bonus when you open your account and spend $1,000 in the first 90 days.
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Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank. Take advantage of the $250 bonus for a limited time from our friends at G Bank, the official bank of VSiN, subject to credit approval, terms and conditions apply.
37:37
Uh, just one tweet I wanna finish out with, uh, TS Hudson, 'cause I, I, I like when we get tweets like this.
37:42
He says, "I used to work with the Orioles', uh, batting practice pitcher during Albert Belle's time in Baltimore. He used to praise him and how kind he was to the people in the clubhouse and the ancillary staff."
37:55
I love hearing that about Albert Belle, who should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Carl Sack from Killer Sports, kind enough to, uh, hang with us for one more segment.
38:02
Before we get to your NFL Week 17 thoughts, I just wanted to follow up on something we talked about last segment, which I, I know makes some folks' heads explode when they listen to it, particularly when it comes to the NBA.
38:12
'Cause the NBA, we are mesmerized by the athleticism of the stars and their ability to play the sport of basketball. But as I've said many times on this show, but haven't in a while, basketball's this funny thing, right?
38:23
Where it's like, if you had Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, and Oscar Robertson as your starting five, you're not scoring 300 points.
38:31
There is an optimal efficiency to any five guys on the court. So when you said, "Hey, L- Luka," obviously the Mavericks aren't better without Luka, but the market way over-adjusts for it.
38:43
Like, it, it's, it's not commensurate with what Luka means to the team. And when people hear that, they're like, "What are you absolutely out of your mind?" Bob once came on here, Dr.
38:50
Bob, our buddy, came on here once and said, when the Warriors were winning championships, "Kevon Looney means w- more to the Warriors' efficiency than does Klay Thompson," and people lost it, right?
39:02
Yeah, I remember that. There was- Vividly... once at Sloan, at MIT Sloan Sports Conference, I witnessed Dr. Bob was having an argument with Jackie McMullan, who, uh, who covered the Celtics. Oh.
39:11
I hope you know this story. Uh, and he was like, "Jared Sullinger," remember Jared Sullinger? "Means more to the Celtics than Rajon Rondo," and she lost her mind, and they were, like, going at it.
39:22
It was very, [laughs] it was very uncomfortable. But that's kinda w- what you're talking about, just based on what the market is, uh- It's all relative to the market. It's all relative, that's right.
39:31
All relative to the market. Anyway, I just find that kind of thing fascinating. It's, it's particularly interesting in basketball, where five guys are on the court at one time.
39:38
It's not like, you know, as many players in the other sports. And it's- And what I think's really important, too, is who is replacing that player. That's right. You know?
39:45
Like, a lot of people will be like, "Oh, LeBron's worth X." Well, what if LeBron sits down and you've got, you know, Larry Bird coming off the bench? Like- Right...
39:53
it changes versus if you've got some rookie coming off the bench. That's exactly right. All right, Week 17, what would you like to share here? What matchup you got? Week 17. So, um,
40:05
we've got a situation coming up in this Green Bay/Minnesota game that, um, I, I find really interesting. Um, the situation in our database is that the second time division rivals are playing each other
40:22
in a current season, if the first game went over by a touchdown or more, the under is, hits over 57% on over 500 plays.
40:34
Um, and I think that that speaks to something that we talked about in the past with familiarity of division teams. I, I certainly think...
40:44
I, I personally have done most of my handicapping in football and basketball, and I know for a fact that in those two sports, familiarity of teams breeds...
40:56
It leads to unders because they get more and more familiar with o- their offensive tendencies and know how to guard them and their plays and their playbook. I don't know how it is in baseball.
41:06
You might be able to speak to it in baseball, because I feel like in some regards, the more you see a pitcher, the more you know his stuff and can hit it. Absolutely. And therefore, maybe it leads to an over.
41:16
But i- in football and basketball- Also in baseball, works every time through the lineup also. There's that, right? Mm-hmm. Tires out. Yeah, yeah.
41:23
Um, at any rate, uh, this applies to the Minnesota/Green Bay game this weekend. Um, they l- they played, I forget how long ago it was at this point, seven weeks ago or something, and that was just a barn burner.
41:36
Um, even though I think, uh, was it Green Bay... Was it... What was the score of that game? I can't recall. One of the teams ran away with it early.
41:46
Um, but it was a barn burner and so I think that both those teams are not only going to now be more familiar with what each, e- the other team's playbooks are, but I also think they're gonna go into it focusing on, like, "Okay, we let up a lot of points.
42:01
Let's play some defense. Let's focus on that." What was the score, Wyatt? I'm sorry, 29-21? 31-29 Vikings was the final. 31-29. Thank you, Wyatt, for getting that in my ear.
42:10
Yeah, so but no, that, that last part, what you said is, is what makes it in- intuitively it makes sense, right? "Oh, this happened in the first game. Let's be keen to make these adjustments," kinda thing.
42:20
I s- I find in football and in basketball, when teams play each other, like, they look at what they did bad in the previous game, and they focus on correcting that.
42:30
Whereas they don't put as much effort into, "Oh, well, we did really good on offense, so let's figure out..." They're just kinda like, "Okay." You know what I mean? Yep, makes sense. Anything else before we get out?
42:39
Any other game? Are we 17? Oh, let's see here. Um- So the under in the Green Bay/Minnesota game, obviously huge implications.
42:47
Not so much for Green Bay who are Uh, locked into a wild card, but for the, uh, for the Vikings who, again, if they win out, they will win the NFC s- uh, the NFC North and get the number one seed in the NFC playoffs.
43:01
You know, I, I'll go, I'll t- I'll go a little bit of a different route here 'cause you brought up Stormy doing the Ohio State-Oregon game. Um, they are playing for the second time this year.
43:12
They played earlier this year, and in college football, um, over the last 20 years, when a team plays another team for the second time that season, they go under 62% of the time.
43:26
Um, just blind, no other conditions, just if a team plays in college football the second... They know each other's playbook better, they know their personnel better, and, um,
43:36
so while it's not NFL, uh, it, it just kind of further e- um, enforces that familiarity concept in football and in, um, and in basketball. I- That le- that lends to the under as well in that game? Yeah, yeah. Okay.
43:49
All right. So I wouldn't be surprised. That total's gone up a little bit. I think it w- opened at 54, might be at, like, 55 and a half, 56, something like that right now.
43:57
But, um, I wouldn't be surprised to see that game go under either. All right. So where can the... Tell the people where they can find you again. Where do they go?
44:02
Yeah, Killer Cappers is, um, where we've got all kinds of tools for people who are doing their handicapping themselves. Um, some really innovative stuff we're working on and coming up with that other- nobody else has.
44:14
Um, and then if you're just looking for picks, Killer Cappers, there's me and a group of handful of other guys that are sharp and really know what they're doing. Um, so yeah. I love it.
44:26
Killersports.com, killercappers.com. Carl Sack, everybody, uh, kind enough to join us.
44:32
Wanna shout out, 'cause I promised earlier, again, uh, the crew that makes this possible, Savannah, Darnell, Brendan, Ryan, Rob Moreno, Wyatt Tomchek. What a, what a bang-up job Wyatt did, uh, producing the show.
44:43
Uh, $100 futures for all six of them. It's not a competition, except it is a competition. Uh, $100 for all of them, uh, any futures bet they want for the year 2025. We've tried this in previous years.
44:54
Uh, let's do better. We've done all we can do. Stormy is next, and Joy from Visa, the Sports Betting Network.
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