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Jan 13, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 13, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | January 13, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
32:49
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN fans, you are in luck.
0:12
Circa Las Vegas owner Derek Stevens offering you 15% off at three incredible properties, Circa Las Vegas, the D Hotel, and Golden Gate. We really gotta get back to the D, Kelly. Me and you, field trip.
0:23
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0:33
Book your 2025 stay now at CircaLasVegas.com and use VSiN15 to get 15% off. See how we do that? VSiN 1-5, 15% off. Your Vegas adventure starts here. What were you doing at the D, at the bar?
0:45
Gr- great deal by Circa first, though. I, 'cause I- Yeah... I was, I was gonna bring this up last week. I don't, we've never done a special like this for Circa. We have not. That's right.
0:52
So this is very, very cool of, uh, Derek to do this with us. Besides- We had the, uh, the, uh, Circa survivor and millions presentation. Oh, that's right. So yeah, went down there.
1:00
Um, uh, went down there, had to have one of the guys that we knew I'd give a shout-out last week on the show to the team that finished, uh, T7, so wanted to catch up with them, grab a drink. Congratulations to them.
1:10
And then, uh, let's see, Isaiah was there doing production work, uh, Bill Adey was there, Matt Brown was there, Mike Somich was there, and then, uh, before I knew it, it was the, uh, the Friday full 24 is what I call it, Gil.
1:22
When I wake up at 4:00 AM, and before I know it, I'm going to bed at 4:00 AM, it was a long night Friday nights. The craft- Kel- Kelly Bidlin, everybody. The crafts table back here was a little rowdy at about 2:30 AM.
1:33
[laughs] JamesSot, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
1:36
JamesSot, "I recommend to the ANG family," oh, this is good, "to download the Aussie Open app because it will tell you all the times that everyone's playing in your time zone." That's nice.
1:49
It has already- Some of the golf ones do that, too... it has already come up clutch for me," he says.
1:53
Uh, Jeff Staples, @CigarCityJeff, "I was on the Rams also until I saw the Chargers' listless performance and can't help to think that's what's going on in LA, that, that, that, that what is going on in LA had something to do with it.
2:05
I'm on the under tonight." That's fair, Jeff. TorchD, "Did anyone else parlay Carl Anthony Towns [laughs] over two and a half made threes and the Commodores to win the Super Bowl?
2:16
I'm sitting on a 98-to-one skins ticket, feeling smart." [laughs] Just you, TorchD. That's awesome. But good for you. Uh, Chris of St. Barts, "Can you share your tennis futures again? Thanks."
2:26
Can I do that before we do GG Bank? Can I tear the- Sure, sure. Let me just, uh, these are the, uh, Australian Open futures that I played. Uh, Iga Swiatek, plus 550, she opens with a, uh, straight set victory last night.
2:38
Mirra Andreeva, 25 to one, and Karolina Muchova, who was double parked outside in her straight set victory yesterday. All three of those, uh, are through the first round. Has that Andreeva played?
2:50
I can't even remember anymore. Um, I also made two quarter bets at Stations on Friday after the show, Kelly- Which was-... because, uh, Stations- Easy experience... had some great prices. Oh, such an easy experience.
3:02
Didn't take me an hour at all to get these bets in. [laughs] Uh, Q2, Muchova at six to one. By the way, can we go back to that, guys? 'Cause Muchova at six to one in Q2, and in Q4, I got Swiatek at plus 115.
3:13
Then on the men's side, uh, de Minaur and Dimitrov, uh, for a very small amount of money, 'cause as I said, this is performative on the men's side.
3:19
By the way, Dimitrov couldn't make it past the set either before he pulled out of the tournament, so that one's already by the wayside. Oh, are you serious? Yeah, he got, he was, he had injury concerns too. Grigor!
3:28
Yeah, come on, Grigor. [laughs] Grigor. Grigor. You had, uh, Andreeva won on Saturday? Yes. Yeah. It's, it's all with the rain. He can't- Over Buskova... over Marie Buskova. Yeah, yeah. I know that one. Well, well said.
3:39
I know that one. And then, uh, Q2, and, uh, Zach and I talked about this on the Beating The Book Australian Open, uh, uh, podcast.
3:46
Joao Fonseca to win Q2, but he's got Rublev tonight, so this is one of these bets in the quarter on the, uh, men's side. I have Joao Fonseca at 14 to one. His numbers are just through the roof.
3:56
But this is one of those where it's like he could get bounced in the first round, but if he wins tonight, oh boy. So those are all the Australian Open futures that, um, Chris of St. Barts, thanks for asking.
4:06
The numbers guys, Osorio plus 175 at DK.
4:10
Yes, uh, Camilo Osorio is the only match that I have, uh, submitted already at vsin.com/picks that has gotten delayed, so it's the only one that I'm able to give out on the show today.
4:19
We'll, uh, handicap all the rest of them here after I get off air. Rhodes Knows, "Can anyone explain going," oh, this is a great question. Love this one, Kelly.
4:28
"Can anyone explain going for it on fourth down and not throwing a pass at or beyond the first down marker? Chargers went for it fourth and two and threw a one-yard pass. How do you throw a one-yard pass? Why?
4:40
Thanks, guys. HTTR." Hail to you know who. Um, this came up a couple times this weekend. The Quinton Johnston one, I think, is the one you're referring to. Yeah, that's what he's talking about.
4:51
So first of all, it's, it's on the receiver, right? Fundamental football is the receiver's gotta get to the sticks.
4:58
So he does his little pattern, and if he's short, there's nothing the quarterback can do, but yes, to your point about, uh, the quarterback goes to him.
5:05
Well, the quarterback is counting on that receiver to be at the sticks.
5:08
So if that's his only option after he surveys the field, or if it's the quick thing that he's going to do, he's hoping that the receiver does his part. But it wasn't only that game.
5:18
Remember it happened in the Broncos game too, and Sean Payton went crazy on the receiver? Yeah. 'Cause that's what Sean Payton does. He, he, you're right, yeah. Let me go ballistic. Hi- his fault, not mine at all.
5:27
Um, [laughs] Lance Zierer, the guy who said- He did not have a great game.
5:31
I didn't think that was a good, uh, a good ga- a good, well-called game by the B- Broncos whatsoever Uh, Lance Zierer was the guy who said, uh, he said, "Jaden's not special."
5:40
He goes, "We all know those two throat pipes aren't special, Gil." [laughs] Roger Jones, "Good morning, guys. Great work as usual." Thank you. "What did you make of Gonzalez heading out for that kick?
5:49
Was he trying to give himself as much face time as possible, fixing his hair, or was he nervous as blank?" Uh, I just think it's his tics, right? His nervous tics.
5:56
Well, so it is, it's, it's funny because I think it's, I think it's mainly just the camera catching him at the perfect time because it's, it's kinda what I was going nuts about with the Sark thing, because it's all these kickers got their weird routines, whether they're kinda normal, kinda weird, whatever it is.
6:13
But I have never seen the hair thing before. I mean, I mean, me neither, but, like, I, I- Does, does Kelly Bidlin walk out of the studio and then do his hair 100,000 times? No, I do it before I walk into the studio.
6:23
[laughs] Maybe better you do. But, like, that was, that's what was so weird about the Sark thing, right? Because no head coach ever goes over to a kicker right before a big kick and's like, "Hey, man, I believe in you.
6:35
The whole team believes in you. You got this, for sure." And when he, when that ball was heading towards the doink, I think I flat-lined for about a second and a half. I was like, "What is happening?
6:45
Is that gonna make it? Is that gonna make it?" [laughs] Of course, it makes it. Uh, Roger Jones finally at Bronco Wins, "I love ANG replays. It's like going to the optometrist. Which one is clearer, one or two?
6:54
And one of them is so blurry you can barely see the chart." Yeah, that replay was blurry- True... wasn't it? It was like for the, that's my fault. No, it's not. I think it might've been my fault. No, it's not.
7:03
Um, G Bank Best Bets of the Day. Shall we do that? You know what's my fault? You know what I'm really mad about?
7:08
Of all the things in this show, you know what I'm most upset about, is that we just talked about your tennis without country clubbing. Oh. And that's, we passed by it. We passed by it. Can't do it. Can't do that.
7:18
Can't do it. Can't do it. Can't do it. Oh, that's right. We just gotta get in a rhythm. We gotta get in a rhythm. All right. The rhythm, the ripple.
7:23
Time for our G Bank Best Bets of the Day, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. [laughs] Never mind. Once again, I got the Rams plus three and the Rams plus 118 on the money line tonight. This was made offshore.
7:34
It's at a shy offshore. They're like, "No, your bet stands." And, uh, so I still have it. And it, at one point- Well, uh-... it looked like it was fantastic CLV, and now it's not so much.
7:42
Um, but I still think the Rams will win. I really do.
7:45
Uh, and then the only tennis, uh, bet that lingers, again, we went four and two in tennis for over three units to the positive, uh, with the Australian Open because of, uh, a, a dog's cavalcade, uh, getting in.
7:57
We got, uh, home school Kate. We got home Mickelson over Tsitsipas. We got home Faria. We got home, uh, Ayawa on the lady side. All those were dogs. Lost on Zdansek and Yuan, Yue Yuan. You know Yue Yuan, don't you?
8:11
Mm-hmm. Or Yuan Yue. Uh, the only one is Camila Osorio plus 164 over Maria Sakkari. Uh, Kelly Bidlin, Kelly Bidlin, what do you got? Oh, there's- Camila Os- Osorio from Colombia. Colombia.
8:24
I always, I always like to Google when I do, when I hear a new name from Gil Alexander. Oh, no, we've bet on her many times. She used to be Osorio Serrano. All right.
8:31
[laughs] Um, but she's one of- Oh, she changed her name. I'm gonna go with that. By the way, she's- That is my excuse... she's one of these players, like, if, i- if you get frustrated by her, it, it's a long match.
8:43
She w- she's, like, a good three-match player, three, uh, three-set player kinda girl. Brendan, just give me 213. Give me the square bear teaser of the year, 'cause that's really what it is.
8:53
I don't need my regular pick sheet. There it is. Me and everybody else in the country, if you're American and you like to bet money, this is probably what you're betting on this week, and I understand it.
9:03
Hey, uh, one more tennis thing. Hey, Savannah, can we do the, uh, Kei Nishikori one, since I just brought up Osorio and her thing in three sets? Mm-hmm.
9:10
Uh, this is, uh, me and Zach on the Beating the Book Australian Open podcast about the Japanese player, Kei Nishikori. And then there's Kei Nishikori, who has had this post-injury resurgence. Yeah.
9:22
And for those who don't know, Kei Nishikori has the greatest best-of-five record in the history of tennis. Um- That's crazy... so he's, he's one of these guys where I will bet on him hoping that it goes to five.
9:38
[laughs] Like, it's the weird, I, I feel this about no other player, right? But I'm like, "I want him because I will outlast the opponent." Now, I said that wrong on the podcast, right?
9:47
What I really meant was he has the best fifth set record, not the best of five, but that he has the best fifth set. So when matches go to five sets- Oh, yeah.
9:54
I don't- So here, so I [laughs] That's the way I took it, but- Yeah, that's the way I meant it. Djokovic, I was wrong. Djokovic s- all time 78.43%, 40 and 11. 78.43%.
10:09
Nishikori 78.37%, 29 and eight. How about that? By the way, his first match at the Australian Open, wins it in five. There you go. There you go.
10:22
By the way, if you're wondering why, why are we doing this- You wanna tell the fine people about G Bank? Oh, yeah, G Bank, of course. Of course I do.
10:27
[laughs] I was too busy talking about, oh, that, those were all our picks? Okay. G Bank, the official- Yeah, that's right. Yeah... bank of VSiN, everybody.
10:33
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10:41
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10:47
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10:57
Sam O'Bomb and Sweetylsin next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. In sports betting and trading, understanding probability is the ultimate game changer.
11:13
Unlock the secrets of high probability trading with Todd Bubba Horowitz, Kelly's new best friend. That's right. We hung out Friday night. Former floor trader, seasoned sports bettor with over 45 years of experience.
11:24
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11:32
That's bubbatrading.com/visin, promo code VISIN500 I wanna get to Dustin here momentarily, but I wanna read, uh, just a couple tweets here.
11:41
Well, Opta Stats, "In NFL history," this is, uh, har- hearkening back to what I said the other day, um, or, or earlier on the show al- also.
11:48
"In NFL history, there have been three instances of a team having zero turnovers and zero punts in a game behind a rookie starting quarterback, regular or postseason.
11:56
All three by this year's Commodores and Jayden Daniels, week two, week three, and tonight." But they're the greatest fourth down team in the history of the NFL. I said it after that Bengals game, week three.
12:08
I said, "It's really tough to beat a team when you don't turn the ball over and you don't punt." It's kinda simple football math. Thank you to, uh, Jack Larkin from, uh, Sport Trade for pointing that out to me.
12:19
Uh, JasonH11, "Sam Obama and Sweetdelson sounds like a personal injury law firm in north Las Vegas." [laughs] Okay. We'll get to, uh, Sweetdelson first here momentarily. And I did wanna read this last one.
12:29
JR, uh, Budaris. Hope I'm saying that correctly. "Zane Gonzalez," he says, "has diagnosed OCD. Really good article on it from a few years ago you can find online." There you go then. That would explain it.
12:40
That would explain everything. So shame on all of you, Kelly, Bidlin, for making... Well, I'm just, I'm just making fun of them too. Listen, like- No, so that's what he has... every golfer and kicker does- No...
12:47
to a degree, but- No... diagnosed, different. No. Our sincerest apologies for Zane Gonzalez, to Zane Gonzalez. Thanks for doinking it in. I was gonna say, he done carried, made the kick. [laughs] That's right.
12:57
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, uh, he is as happy as, uh, any human being alive because he's back with Patrick Mahar- uh, Patrick Mahar. What was I saying? Mahar. Patrick Maher on, uh, Mad Dog Radio, Visin Live.
13:08
It's Dustin Sweetdelson everybody. How you doing? Courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Dustin? Boys, what's up? Uh, as long as you get my name right, that's all I care about. Yeah.
13:16
Uh, and you know, it's a similar dynamic. It's one heavyset guy, one good-looking guy paired together. Obviously, the formula is very basic here at Visin, but that's what we have going here.
13:25
I would like to acknowledge, though, that Kelly is not as big as he used to be, and he's getting smaller by the day, and I just want to publicly- Yeah...
13:33
uh, congratulate my friend for his hard work because he's absolutely killing it, and inspired me in the last week to get back on the train. But, uh, you look awesome, Kelly- Thanks, Dustin. Appreciate it...
13:40
and I can't wait until you're the good-looking guy on the show. I was g- I took it that way to begin with anyway, so I was like- Oh... "Why you calling Gil fat? I don't understand."
13:47
[laughs] "Why, why you coming on here and calling Gil fat?" Kelly lost over 50 pounds. How much did you lose, Dustin? Uh, let's see. I, I don't remember. It was, like, 45, 50 pounds that time. I fluctuate, Gil.
13:58
It goes up and down. Like, right now, uh, fir- uh, full disclosure, first full week of the new show, new schedule, having a routine, I lost six and a half pounds last week. Yeah, he is- So- Wow...
14:09
Dustin's yo-yoing is wild. Wow. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. By the way, uh, Visin Live on Mad Dog Sports Radio with Patrick Maher, Dustin Sweetdelson, SiriusXM channel 82, weeknights from 7:00 to 10:00 Eastern.
14:20
Um, okay, let us begin with tonight's game, Dustin, between the Vikings and the Rams. You have made a prop bet, and then you are pondering another, correct?
14:30
Yeah, so full disclosure, let's go with the one that I have now. Uh, I bet 39 and a half over on TJ Hockenson. That bet was voided because of the move of the game. I got a great number. I got out in front of it.
14:42
As soon as it was posted, boom, over 39 and a half. I did pay heavy juice, but I didn't mind in this spot. I bet it again at 44 and a half when it reopened. Um, I s- I like it still at 44 and a half.
14:54
Uh, I saw some books have 46. That's getting close. But you look, uh, at Hockenson, he didn't play in their week eight loss, uh, Minnesota to the Rams.
15:04
The Rams allow the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. He's cleared this in three of five, and then I went back the last four weeks, Noah Fant, Trey McBride, Tyler Conklin, George Kittle.
15:14
Those are the last four tight ends to face this Rams defense. All of them cleared 44 and a half receiving yards. The average was 76 and a half, so I really like Hockenson to be involved.
15:26
That secondary for the Rams is really young, and I think over the middle they can be exploited while they're focusing on those weapons on the outside.
15:34
What's this, uh, Rams wide receiver prop that you're, uh, contemplating? Yes.
15:39
Look, I have a tendency, despite how I look on the screen right now, to get too cute at times, Gil, and I, I overthink, and I wanna be the only one with something in pocket.
15:48
And in this case, I, I'm looking at wide receivers for the Rams, just because this Vikings secondary allows the, the most receptions, second most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
15:58
Early in the year I was, like, I was hammering this with player props, and it was mostly slot receivers. I think a lot of that has to do with the way Brian Flores schemes up his defense. There's a lot of pressure.
16:08
Uh, there's a tendency for that slot route to be the quickest, shortest, safest route, a safety blanket, if you will, for, for Sam Darnold. Uh, but Puka Nacua is the guy who operates mostly out of the slot.
16:18
His reception prop is seven and a half juiced at minus 148. His receiving yards is 93 and a half.
16:23
And these games in the playoffs, I think over the weekend one thing that we learned is, uh, the, the games are getting condensed. There are less possessions. There are less opportunities.
16:32
Teams are playing a little bit safer. I don't know if I could go over 93 and a half, and I'm certainly not gonna pay almost minus 150 vig when it comes to a reception prop on Puka Nacua wh- when, when that's happening.
16:43
So, um, and I'm also not so sure all regular season trends will translate from a player prop perspective when it comes to these games because of all of that. However, want you to help me talk myself into this.
16:56
Tutu Atwell, 10 and a half receiving yard. Okay. Super low. He had one for 18 in week eight against this Minnesota defense. He's cleared it 13 times this year. He's explosive.
17:08
They use him in sweeps, which are technically passes, but my concern is this is the postseason. This is where we rely on stars more, so I don't know if I'm gonna end up getting to the window with the ticket.
17:18
I would, uh, try to talk you into that, except I'm much more excited to get Kelly angry about something. Oh, well, hold on. I'm, I'm gonna back up Dustin. Yeah.
17:26
I think you can question, though, what is, what is the status of Coop- uh, of Cooper Kupp in this offense right now? Yeah. It's all Puka Nacua, number one, so yeah, I think these other guys are live right now. Oh.
17:35
I, I like the Tutu Atwell play. All right. Don't bleed the clock. I wanna, I wanna get you angry. That's fair. [laughs] Go ahead. Whatever. Get him off there.
17:41
Uh, Sam, uh, tell us how many Sam Darnold Comeback Player of the Year bets you have, and at what numbers? Uh, it's, like, four or five. It begins at 55 to one. It goes down to 10 to one.
17:50
I think there's an 18 and a 14 in there as well. Um- Oh, look, I just don't believe the writers are gonna do what Big Brother, the, the overseeing NFL governing body- [laughs]... is gonna tell them to do.
18:03
I think when you talk about Comeback Player of the Year, it's about the story, and Sam Darnold, when it comes to the NFL, was left for dead in the league. Everyone had given up for him. Anyone could have had him.
18:15
The Minnesota Vikings took him, polished him, turned him into a legit NFL playoff quarterback, and with that, the story is incredible.
18:25
This is a guy that had a ton of upside out of the draft, and we all know first-round quarterbacks are about a 50/50 proposition, and he looked like in the 2018 class, when so many others were flourishing, that he was a bust.
18:36
Instead, he gets this opportunity in Minnesota. Wasn't even supposed to have it. J.J. McCarthy was supposed to take over at some point, and he's been awesome. He's looked like a franchise quarterback.
18:46
I think the story's there, and if you're gonna tell me that Joe Burrow is your Comeback Player of the Year, what is he coming back from? He comes back from injuries like every other year.
18:55
He pled, played 10 games a year ago. I'm just not buying that as a story. So, so much of this awards handicapping for us, guys, is handicapping the voters.
19:05
I don't think the voters care about the quote, unquote, "guidelines" that Roger, uh, Roger Goodell sent out to them. I think they're gonna do their own thing, and they're writers. They know what a good story is.
19:15
Kelly Bidley, your thoughts. Yeah, my, okay, my thoughts are it's, it's the most... Look, I like Dustin. It's the most rational explanation- [laughs]...
19:23
I've at le- I've at least heard for this because he started with one, he started with this statement, "The writers will ignore the guidelines." Mm-hmm. We haven't really heard that.
19:32
We, we've heard a lot of the rest of what he said, but you have to focus it on that part. They're going to ignore the guidelines. And what, if I lose a bet that way, fine. Like, wh- it sucks. I don't get it.
19:43
I don't get what we're betting on anymore. Uh, but yeah, that, that's, um... Well, according to the Numbers Game straw poll, Sam Darnold will be your winner. Yeah, that is, uh- Yeah...
19:51
Dustin's looking good right now as far as that's concerned. But you know, the only problem I have with it, though, this is the problem I actually have with it. Hmm.
19:56
If we're going by that storyline, though, why isn't it DeMar Hamlin then? DeMar Hamlin was not s- w- was not starting a year ago. Even if we wanna talk about the injury stuff. No.
20:05
You know I have a problem with the injuries, uh, stuff with him, Gil. But he wasn't starting a year ago, now he's a starter on the Buffalo defense. So what's the difference between him and Sam Darnold?
20:15
Oh, we could do this for hours. [laughs] We really could. The comeback was last year, Kelly. The comeback was last year. He came back last year. That's when he came back from injury.
20:23
By the way, NFL Awards announced Snoop Dogg hosting. What a surprise. He, why is he everywhere? February 6th. Can, can we announce these are, this and baseball, it is, I know they drag it out for money.
20:34
Oh, no, this is, this is way better than baseball. This is before the Super Bowl. Yeah, no, baseball- Baseball's Thanksgiving. By the way, Gil. Yeah, by the way, Gil, I did place my first baseball future of the year, so.
20:42
Ooh, what'd you do? That, that's- What'd you do? Uh, the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the World Series. Really? Um, yeah, look, I think the pitching's loaded, but it's more about a Cor- a Corbin Carroll bounce back.
20:52
I just think the guy we saw last year was injured, that front shoulder was bothering him on his swing.
20:56
I think if he reverts back to two years ago, his rookie year, all of a sudden that lineup has a different depth, and I think they can make a run also.
21:04
I don't think they win the division, and outside of the Dodgers this year, it feels like not winning the division s- kind of is beneficial for teams in the baseball playoffs this year. [laughs] You would think.
21:14
Um, real quick then before you go, 30 seconds, what, uh, futures in the NFL are you sweating out here? Eagles. Eagles, got a big number on the Eagles, think it was 16 to one to win the Super Bowl. Uh, it was clunky.
21:25
I'm a little concerned, but at the same time, I think they're built for any style of fight, and that's why I still like them to finish this.
21:32
Patrick Maher, Dustin Sweetolson, VSIN Live, Mad Dog Sports Radio, tonight and every weeknight, 7:00 to 10:00 Eastern on SiriusXM Channel 82. Dustin, mazel tov, we'll be listening. Thanks, boys.
21:44
Dustin Sweetolson, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Mike Somich, not courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, in studio next. Numbers Game, VSIN, the sports betting network.
21:54
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network. Back with a Numbers Game.
22:10
Un partido de numeros for those listening in Spanish. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook, Matt Trudell. I hope it's Matt Trudel or Matt Trudell. Five-star review. "Watching ANG.
22:19
I'm with Gil, the medicine man, on the Rams and tennis, and Kelly and Square Bears teaser parlay for three units, and also got Lamar nine to one when you guys brought it up on the show back in early December. Let's go."
22:30
By the way, Lamar Jackson, again, uh, first team all-pro. Historically, that person becomes the MVP. That's why you saw a flip in the MVP odds. Somich and I were just talking about this off air.
22:44
That is why you saw the flip, and those odds still available, uh, in some markets like polymarkets, he shares with me, 'cause not in your standard sports books. Uh, Bobby Gettys, "Little behind on the episode today."
22:55
I feel your pain, Kelly. "I also missed a pizza bet on a 12 to one because of no Saquon touchdown, but even worse, I live bet his over yards when I thought Philly would pull away. Got it at 120 and a half.
23:05
He finished with 119." Oh. And Wet Willie Cohen says, uh, "Gil, if you struggle saying Patrick Maher," which I don't, just that one time, "you should hear Mad Dog try to pronounce his last name. Mugwah, they say."
23:16
[laughs] That's bad. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, Mike Somich is in studio, and we're always thrilled to have Mike Somich in studio, sitting in the Kelly Bidlin chair.
23:24
Uh, ho- cohost, along with Matt Brown, of Ready, Set, Bet here on the network. How you doing, man? I'm doing good. I'm doing good. It was, uh, I, I'd say, an eventful weekend from a football standpoint.
23:32
Not the best betting weekend for me. I had, uh, had the under in that Texans game.
23:36
That one was a, a pretty dirty one that went to the over there with the, the defensive score, and then the, the, ended up being the blocked field goal. I had 42 and a half.
23:44
That blocked extra point returned for two- Oh... takes it from 42 to 44, and that's the difference there. Uh, but the Philly bet was the big bet for me this weekend. That at least came through.
23:53
Props weren't great, but, uh, we still got one game left. Cameron Dicker thinking it was a pass that he could bat down. That, it was hilarious to watch that, 'cause you, he went- [laughs]...
24:00
goes over to the sideline immediately, and you've got Harbaugh who's just screaming at him like, "What are you doing, man?" And it, uh- Oh, man... yeah, that was a, that was a painful two points there.
24:08
I wanna ask you, so we'll get to you, you have a couple football plays here.
24:10
You have a couple hockey plays, so I wanna get to those, but- I wanna start with just the, the— I've asked you this, I think once before this year, and this to me was your calling card last year.
24:19
You know where I'm going with this. I do. So Aaron Schatz, a lot of us, but Aaron Schatz, I'll use his numbers. Last year, the 2023 49ers and Ravens, he had as two of the top 10 teams of all time.
24:30
We all know what happened in the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes puts on his cape, and the Chiefs win a second consecutive Super Bowl, the third of Patrick Mahomes' career.
24:38
This year, uh, Aaron Schatz, just to put it in context, he has the Ravens as, I believe, his seventh best team of all time, the 2024 Ravens.
24:47
I've had the Ravens as my number one power rank team for as long as I can r- since they unseated the Lions about six, seven weeks ago.
24:55
And you were the guy last year while all that was happening with those rankings, you were like, "Nope, it's gonna be Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs." Do you still have, do you have that same feeling this year? I do.
25:05
You do. I, I think the Chiefs are... The Chiefs are number one in my power rankings, which means I will be betting the Chiefs next week. Oh.
25:10
I already know when you look at the Buffalo-Baltimore line, no matter who wins that game, uh, they're going to be a, we'll call it slight favorite or pick'em in Kansas City if Kansas City are able to get past the Texans, and I will be betting the Chiefs in that game.
25:21
I will most likely bet it a little later in the week, 'cause I think we're going to see some anti-Chiefs money come in early especially, and then midweek we'll start to see more public Chiefs money come in.
25:30
I, I'm fascinated by this version of the Kansas City Chiefs simply because we have no clue. We don't. No clue what we're gonna get on the offensive side of the football. Yeah.
25:38
I, I was watching the game on, on Christmas Day, and you look at the snap counts from a wide receiver and tight end perspective in the first half. And now, mind you, this is a game at Pittsburgh.
25:46
It is a game that they need to win for the number one seed, and 25 passing plays, Worthy's on the field 24 of those. The second most person u- used on that field was Noah Gray at 11. Not Hopkins- [laughs]...
25:58
not Kelce, and this is, this is a must-win game for them against a team where the line was sub three points. And- Even, even when you bring up Hopkins, I'm like, "Oh yeah, Hopkins."
26:06
Well, and now you've got Brown added out there. You've got Hopkins. You've got Kelce. I... We don't know. We got both running backs that are going to be healthy going into this game.
26:14
The offensive line is going to be as healthy as we've seen in, in weeks. We have no clue what type of offense Kansas City is going to run in that game against the Texans.
26:22
No idea how, how they're going to try and structure their plays, what those route trees are going to look like.
26:27
It's as much of an enigma from an offensive perspective that we've seen in the NFL playoffs since I started caring about football, which was 25 years ago. Part of... 25 years ago? What are you, 27 years old? How are you?
26:37
I'm 41. Oh, okay. Uh, really caring about football. Oh, okay. Yeah. I was curious. Uh- When I started betting. [laughs] Is part of that what you were talking about is why you, has led you to the Texans Chiefs under?
26:46
Part of it is, yes. First off, I, I'm not... Like, there's the rust factor with the Chiefs, which I don't buy into as much with this specific Chiefs team.
26:52
But what I do buy into is what we've seen from them consistent throughout the season, which is they're not explosive. And I don't think even with the new personnel all of a sudden you're gonna see 60-yard pass plays.
27:02
I think you're still going to see those methodical six to nine-minute touchdown drives where they're going to take what the defense gives them and slowly move the football down the field.
27:11
And you look on the other side with this Texans team, look, I, I'll happily take the Bro- the, the Chiefs defense over the Chargers defense. You're getting Watson back, which no one's talking about.
27:19
The cornerback number two, which made them a top 10 pass defense, and without him they were bottom 10. He'll be back in the first round of this game, first fr- first game of this next round.
27:28
So I would expect this to be the best version of the Chiefs defense that we've seen since week six, week seven, and the Chiefs offense just isn't explosive enough to be able to put up a massive number of points.
27:39
A Chiefs team with a lead in the playoffs we've seen just slows it down even more.
27:43
Uh, the, to me this is a great underside, especially with Slowik as the OC of the Texans, who is going to insist on running the football on first and second down and not be very successful doing it against a Chiefs defense that's very good against the run.
27:54
It just, this game just sets up to be one of those, you know, 27-14 type games in my mind. Yeah. I think fewer...
28:01
Goin'- going back to your Chiefs prophecy from last year and this year, I think fewer people will be surp- w- are, are more against you this year.
28:09
Like, I think after what happened last year, I think m- mo- a lot of people this year will be like, "Yeah, I can see the Chiefs still winning it all."
28:15
It goes through Arrowhead, and I know it's not called Arrowhead anymore. Goes through their home stadium, uh, Gohl. And then, uh, you know, but last year remember we had that, that Raiders Christmas game- Mm-hmm...
28:26
where they looked so bad, and we, we... It's hard to remember how we felt about the Chiefs at that moment. But you just being steadfast about them, I think last year was a great call. I think it'll be a great...
28:36
I mean, a lot of people think the Bills and the, and the Ravens are the teams to beat in the AFC still this year. They're, they're two phenomenal football teams. Yeah.
28:41
A- and there aren't that many holes with them, right?
28:45
You, uh, if you look, to me, the holes on both sides are defensively, specifically in the secondary, 'cause it's a Bills team that's been pretty good against the rush. The secondary still needs to improve a little bit.
28:53
The Ravens, we've seen them make a absolute turnaround on the defensive side of the ball. Much better secondary the latter half of the season. But I still trust this Chiefs team more, and I trust- Yeah...
29:02
the coaching on the Chiefs more as well. I, I don't think Steve Spagnuolo gets his flowers enough. He's been phenomenal for this team as a defensive coordinator. What about tonight? You got a prop for tonight. I do.
29:11
Uh, give me Aaron Jones over 19 and a half receiving yards. He was a big part of this passing game early in the season. If you look at the last three games, he's gone over this prop as well.
29:19
He's become a much bigger part here, and this is a Rams team where they're going to try and take away Jefferson. They're gonna try and take away Addison. Hockenson is somewhere they do struggle.
29:27
I expect Hockenson to have a good game tonight. But Aaron Jones is going to be a key part of this passing game tonight.
29:31
I think he gets four to five targets, which should get him, we'll call it three to four receptions, which should push him over this 19 and a half number. Okay. Hockey. Let's do it. You got a couple plays.
29:40
I do have a couple plays here. Uh, first one, let's go to the, the Calgary Flames minus 175. They're taking on the Chicago Blackhawks, and this is a, an interesting spot.
29:48
First off, the Flames are just a better hockey team. Blackhawks maybe are, maybe are the worst hockey team in the NHL. I mean, they're bottom three for sure.
29:55
This is a Flames team that's only played four games so far in 2025. They got two days rest coming into this one, so I'm not worried about a rust factor.
30:03
On the other side, it's the Chicago Blackhawks team that will be playing their third game in four days. The Flames and Hawks have played twice. The Flames beat them by two goals in both of those games.
30:10
Let's see if we can make it a clean three for three sweep here, lay the goal and a half with the Flames plus 175.
30:15
Goal and a half, laying with the Flames against the Blackhawks, um- And then on the Kings here We're on the Kings here. This is, uh, this is the marquee game of the night.
30:24
Late game, the Kings going into Edmonton to take on the Oilers, two of the best teams in the Western Conference who are fighting for position in that Pacific division. I don't agree with the number.
30:34
This is more of a number play than a pound the table, I think the Kings are gonna go out and just beat the Oilers play.
30:39
I made this Kings plus 135, and so I am significantly off the plus 160 that was available on the market this morning. Circa back here moved to plus 150 on my walk down.
30:48
So we have seen some movement on this, some Kings money come in. But this is, I, this is a Kings team that is a very, very good hockey team. If you look at their last loss, it was a poor position.
30:57
Both these teams have won four out of five, both playing well right now. I'm willing to take the big plus money price here. Hockey is, like baseball, one of those higher variance sports. Yep.
31:05
And so I'm, uh, going to consistently look for plus money prices versus laying type numbers, just because you do have that variance in the sport. I'm looking at the Kings plus 176 right now- Oh...
31:15
is the book I'm staring at, against the Oilers. It popped up then, yeah.
31:17
It was, it was Oilers minus 190, Kings 160 this morning, and it's Kings 150 back here, 'cause I came down to look at it to decide if I wanted to fire here at Circa. Back to football before we leave, minute left.
31:27
Of the three lines, three lines that are out there for the divisional round, uh, Lions eight and a half-ish right now at Washington, it's coming down some.
31:36
Uh, the Chiefs also in that pocket hosting the Texans, and then obviously, uh, on the third one, um, we have the, um, for goodness sake, now it's escaping my mind. What's happening?
31:47
You got the Bills-Ravens pick 'em right now. The Bills-Ravens, for God sakes. I have the, I had the Ravens as a two and a half point favorite. That's down to a pick 'em.
31:53
If I made you play a side right now, what would it be? Uh, it would be down to the Ravens and the Chiefs. I would probably play the Chiefs. Just stick with the Chiefs again.
32:02
I, I, this is going to be a fascinating offensive performance from the Chiefs in my mind, and I, I think their defense is going to be able to dominate the Texans. It's one of the reasons why I like the under.
32:10
I don't think we know how to rate the Chiefs right now, or value the Chiefs right now.
32:14
And rarely do you have a situation where you get to side with Mahomes and Andy Reid and a team that the market doesn't know how to value. Okay. Mike Szamec, everybody, @samobom18. Ready, Set, Bet with Matt Brown.
32:26
What time can we find you? 4:00 to 7:00 on Saturday Pacific and 5:00 to 8:00 Pacific on Sunday. All right, a little floating thing. 4:00 to 7:00 Saturday, 5:00 to 8:00 on Sunday. Stormy, Bonatoni, Jeff Schwartz next.
32:38
Money Moves top of the hour right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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