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Jan 16, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 16, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | January 16, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It's the Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Every take of this in, we appreciate it.
0:18
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Billin, and I started out by getting the day right. Yeah, you did. Not like yesterday, where I called it Monday. I kind of chuckled 'cause there was a slight hesitation there.
0:27
I don't know if he was making sure or not. D- double-check real quick. Yep, Thursday. [laughs] We've gotten to that point where I'm like, "Okay, what day is it?" 2025. [laughs] Yeah, what year is it?
0:36
Uh, you know what Thursday's mean here. Zach and Crack. Zach Cohen, a VSiN senior editor, gonna talk, uh, NFL with us, gonna talk NBA. How about some Australian Open tennis with Zach as well?
0:48
All of his plays, by the way, at vsin.com/picks for subscribers as well. Um, Jordan Sherwood, how about some UFC 311? Big card. Big card. Couple of the, the main and the co-main are really good. Mm-hmm.
1:01
Uh, not so much in the betting market, but it'll, there is intrigue, and I'm curious how Jordan's- Mm... gonna bet these. So we'll talk to him about that coming up.
1:08
Um, a first look, this is not the, uh, the annual season wins segment that I do in baseball, where we, uh, do very well. Last year, the Padres over was our number one. The year before, it was the Rangers over.
1:19
They end up winning the World Series. Padres get to the playoffs last year. But this is just the first glance at MVP and Cy Young, because FanDuel has seen fit to put it up there. DraftKings up as well.
1:28
And DraftKings now as well. Yeah. And so we'll, uh- They matched them... we'll take a, uh, we'll take a gander. Yeah, we were talking, I mean, Jason brought up, uh, Skeens yesterday. Yeah. That was what?
1:38
Open three to one. You guys were talking about how short it was already, and it got bet down to plus 240 while we were on the air. Y- you can't bet that at that. Can we restart the segment?
1:47
We can't, you can't bet that at that price, as great as he is. Uh, so many things can happen. Anyway, I'll, I'll get to my thoughts on that.
1:53
And of course, the other part of the Zach and Crack team, hour number two, unscripted with the Crack man, Bill Krackenberger.
1:59
Of course, looking forward to that, uh, very, uh, sort of fr- free-flowing conversation with Bill. Whatever's on Billy's mind, that's what we go to.
2:06
Uh, let us begin, uh, yesterday, the first poor day of the Australian Open for me. O and two. Is that allowed at any point- Yeah... in the tournament? Yeah, it's allowed. O and two.
2:17
Uh, lost both in three, in the full three sets on the ladies' side. Katie Boulter loses as a favorite to, uh, Veronika Kudermetova.
2:25
And, uh, then I took a, uh, shot on the, uh, Australian Desiree Ayawa against Danielle freaking Collins, and she lost as a big dog in, uh, in three sets.
2:36
And Danielle Collins, just as lovely as ever in the post-match, uh, news conference. A little, uh, pressure there at the end. Just making no friends whatsoever- [laughs]... with the Australian crowd.
2:46
I didn't see, she's getting feisty again? [laughs] Yeah, 'cause like, I don't know, I guess they were, they were cheering on the Australian player. How dare they at some point. Oh, man. Wow.
2:53
And so afterward she's like, "Well, you just give 'em to counting the paycheck," or whatever she said. Something about her making money off it. She, Drew actually called it.
3:00
He's like, "She's just there for the paycheck." Wow. But she literally voiced it to the crowd, and that was, you can imagine, they enjoyed that. Wow. Yeah, that's something.
3:09
As Ayawa's story is like she came from nowhere, you know, had nothing, and then Danielle Collins is crowing about all the money she's making being... Anyway, um- And we got what? I, I've been watching this one.
3:19
I don't even know how you say this guy's name. Learner Tien? Learner Tien. Tien? He's got, uh, Medvedev on the ropes right now. Well, he was up two sets. Yeah. Learner Tien, who- Third set right now...
3:29
who again, I was, uh, I, I mentioned when h- the Challenger tour was here in Vegas. Oh, this is that guy? I was live betting Learner Tien.
3:37
He's, you know, he's a really good young player, but I mean, still, what, like north of a $4 dog against, uh, Daniil Medvedev, one of the top five players in the world, and he went up two sets on him and got to a third set tiebreaker.
3:50
Someone will have to tell me if there was a match or a match point involved. I didn't watch it that closely this morning. But, uh, Medvedev escapes with a 10-8, 10-8 win in the tiebreaker in the third set
4:03
to, uh, prolong the match. Then he wins the fourth set, and now it's on serve in the fifth, 3-2 Tien. Can I do something different? Oh, okay. Can I do something different here today?
4:11
I was, I was waiting to catch the score out there. Yeah, um, uh, you know, there's a computer in front of you. [laughs] I don't know if you're aware of what this thing can do.
4:18
You know the, well, I know it's on one of the TVs, but you know when you're like, you know when you're like, you turn on a game at home- I know...
4:23
and you're like, "Okay, let me check out the score of this game quick, and then I'm gonna move on." Yeah. And then they're hanging on some, like, promotional graphic or something. Right. You're like, "Drop that.
4:31
Like, I'm just trying to see the score quick." I love that you feel so comfortable on this show that you're just like, you'll stare back at the big screen like we're not doing something right now. Yeah. Uh-huh, Gil.
4:38
Yeah. Uh-huh. Yeah.
4:39
[laughs] Uh, so now t- now so far in the Australian Open, I had mentioned, because, you know, the way that the time zones are, that I just, I'm giving out the picks at vsin.com/subscr- uh, excuse me, vsin.com/picks for subscribers.
4:53
But a, uh, now that we're down to, now, now we're heading into the third round, there's far fewer matches to deal with. Mm-hmm. So I was actually able to handicap last night.
5:01
Can I give a couple picks away here on the actual program? Yeah, let's do it. Let's do that. Do we want the intro or not? After you go O and two, I don't think you need the intro. Okay.
5:08
Yeah, the country club and intro, probably not. Um, I'm on two plays today, one on the ladies' side, one on the men's side. On the ladies' side, it is a, uh, underdog, Laura Siegemund. Laura Siegemund, spelled Laura.
5:22
[laughs] Siegemund. Um, she's p- I, I think the audience can handle that I think so. It's plus 144 for Laur- for Laura Siegemund against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Should've had you try to pronounce that.
5:37
It's actually Anastasia Pa- Pavlyuchenkova. So Siegemund is the play at plus 144. She is the, uh, young lady who took down Zheng Qinwen, the biggest upset on the ladies' side so far. Uh, she did that in round two.
5:50
She's a really annoying player to play, one of these, one of these players that you just can't beat straightforward. She's always messing with her shots. She's like the Todd Wishnar of the ladies' tour.
5:59
You just, you just have n- not in that way. I'm sure she's been called that. [laughs] Not in that way. So- Just in terms of all the different spins and stuff she does.
6:06
Uh, Laura Siegemund at plus 144 is the, uh, play on the ladies' side. And then on the men's side it's a total, it is Arthur Fils and Uber, uh, Uber Humbert, Ugo Humbert, pardon me-
6:19
Two Frenchmen playing each other, I'm taking the over 40 games at -114. Uh, Fils and Humbert, it's like little brother, it's like younger brother, older brother kind of thing. Hmm. Two French players.
6:29
They always play tight, long matches, and so I expect this to be the same. Fils spelled F-I-L-S, Humbert spelled Humbert- Oh yeah, Humbert... for the American audience, uh, over 40 games.
6:42
So Sigmund on the ladies' side is a dog against Pavlyuchenkova, and Fils, Humbert over 40 games. Those are your two Australian Open picks from Melbourne.
6:52
So Ugo and Arthur are like the, uh, they're like the Wembenyama-Gobart of tennis, huh? That's kind of, I guess, sure. [laughs] That's what they are. By the way, does ESPN have to- Yeah...
7:03
have to send an alert on my phone that Ja posterized Wemby on a play that doesn't count? Oh, yeah. I, I, I- Do, do we really need that on our as an alert?
7:12
After I brought up Wemby-Gobart, I was hoping you were gonna go there, 'cause it was one of the greatest dunks I've ever seen. Oh, maybe I should look at it then. Oh, yeah, you didn't see it?
7:19
So I re- No, I refused to look- Okay... 'cause I'm like, "It didn't count." And what's funny is I s- Why, why do k- people care about this if it didn't count? I saw the same thing you did first- Yeah...
7:26
where it was like, a- and good job by the notifica- like, I don't even know where I saw mine.
7:30
I don't even know if it was ESPN, but I did see in the notification it was like, "After the whistle," and I was like, "That's a weird thing to include."
7:36
And then I watched the video and it was like, oh yeah, like the play's dead. Oh, well, maybe I should watch it. But- But then like Ja doesn't slow down. Like it's a whistle outside.
7:44
Ja doesn't slow down, and Wemby's like, "I'm gonna go up there and make a play at the rim," and Ja throws it down over him. It was a sick dunk.
7:52
Poor Wemby though, 'cause everybody in the NBA for the next 15 years is gonna be hunting moments like this.
7:57
I, but this is the thing, like there used to be a time, I'm old enough to remember, Kelly, like three months ago. Back in my day.
8:03
I'm old enough to remember when, when you got a breaking report on your phone, it was like, "Oh my God, there's a breaking report. What's happening?" Yeah. Uh, did, did someone die?
8:12
Did an NFL game break out on a Thursday morning? Like, what happened? This is just as big, Gil. Wemby got dunked on, man.
8:18
[laughs] I'm also old enough to remember when Ja Morant told us all two months ago or whatever it was that he wasn't gonna dunk anymore because of his health. Hmm. Sure. Yeah, now he's- And then after a whistle.
8:28
Now he does it. Think about that. [laughs] After a whistle, a play doesn't count, and he goes up and throws one down. How do, how do you deal with this league?
8:34
Oh, wasn't there a game last night where the Brooklyn Nets got beat like by 100 points last night? Uh, the Brooklyn Nets scored 67 points last night. Yep. Yeah. 67 points.
8:44
They are- They, they lose, they lose by the way and scoring 67 points to the Clippers. What was the final score in this? Yeah, Clippers covered. [laughs] Yeah. It's, it is, uh- Yeah... 126 to 67 was your final. Ugh.
8:56
I like doing the whole quarter thing like- That's a 63-point win if I'm not mistaken in my head. 63? Yes. Uh, uh- 127, 63. Yeah. What'd you say? Yeah. 126-67. Yeah. Uh-huh. 63 point win. Okay.
9:07
Uh, so first quarter, end of first quarter, 21-21. Tight game. Yeah. Nets only scored 14 in the second. Okay, it's gotta get better after halftime, right, Gil? Sure. Yeah. Well, 16 in the third. Yeah.
9:19
Okay, well you g- you can't go out like that, right? 16 in the fourth. Um, okay, so those are the tennis plays.
9:25
Again, I'm only doing the country clubbing when we're coming off a good night, so I think it's inappropriate to go country clubbing if we came off a bad night.
9:32
Uh, NFL plays just to, uh, sort of recap before we get into the guests here on a Thursday with the crack man. Um, I'm on the Rams plus six against the Eagles. I'm on the Ravens against the Bills.
9:43
I've talked about this before. I've stayed away from the other two games.
9:47
Um, I believe the Rams are that sneaky team where they are, again, the profile of them with the Hall of Fame quarterback, good running game, great pass rush.
9:56
I just think if you're giving me six points, I know they're going to cold weather, I know they've got problems back at home with the wildfires and the fallout from that.
10:04
I am sympathetic, but from our gambling little corner of the world, I will take the six points. I was very surprised by that, by that spread, and I believe the Ravens are the best team in football.
10:13
So again, I guessed them to be the favorite on Monday morning. The Bills were at that time. It has come towards me. I am on the Ravens in this one. You?
10:20
I like, I like that I'm just realizing that you've bet the Sunday games and I haven't, and I bet the Saturday games- Oh... and you haven't. That's kind of interesting. I didn't even think about that. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
10:29
Um, I'm on that, all I've got so far is that Chiefs-Lions teaser. Um, I will be on the Bills at some point, but I'm probably just, I'm, it's gonna be small. It's gonna be a small bet.
10:40
I mean, that's gonna be a great game. I think it's everything we're, I think it's gonna be everything we're expecting. Um, Eagles-Rams, man, I'm surprised this line, like, like I thought I was gonna be on the Eagles.
10:51
I just thought it was gonna be under six, and now we're seeing six. There's a six and a half out there at FanDuel now like- Yeah, there was a six and a half that crept up earlier in the week too. Yeah. Yep.
10:58
Like it looks like it's only going more towards the Eagles' way, and I just, after that performance last week, and I, I don't know, I can't get there with laying six even though, even though I think they take care of business.
11:08
I think- We'll, we'll find out what Zach has to say about what his plays are in, on NFL division around here right after the break. I will say this as we go to break. The single most surprising thing to me on this show,
11:19
uh, I don't know what else is out there in the universe, but on this show with our guest this week, the more than one person support for the Texans plus the points. Yeah. Drew Dinsick, very adamant about that.
11:30
He's on the Megapod this week talking about that. Jonathan Vontobel as well.
11:34
Uh, we'll find out what Zach Cohen, our recent senior editor, part of the glue that holds this whole operation, has to say about divisional round and tennis and the NBA. That's next.
11:42
It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:45
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:26
Flavor this good is just a click away. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidley, everybody, live from Circa. Before we get to Zach Cohen, can I ask you, uh, 'cause you're the golf guy, Kelly- Mm-hmm... LIV Golf has its network deal.
12:39
Ooh. Fox Sports and LIV Golf have come together. Uh, this was, this is what many people said about LIV, right? They just... Until they get a major network deal, it's all kind of fun and games. Well, now they got one.
12:54
Um, Fox and LIV announcing a multi-year media rights agreement that will deliver live coverage of LIV Golf competition to viewers throughout the US, beginning this February with the start of LIV Golf's third official league season.
13:07
How about that? Yeah, it's, uh... I, I, I'm, I'm intrigued by it. I don't know how this changes things with the PGA merger, uh, i- if it does at all. I, I would think it probably does.
13:19
We've been hearing about this merger for way too long that they think is gonna occur, and they've been working on it for, I don't even know how long it's been now, a year, year and a half. Um,
13:28
I think it's probably a sign that that's not going very well if LIV goes and signs this de- a multi-year deal, which that, those are the big words to me, Gil.
13:36
M- multi-year deal with Fox to broadcast LIV, and LIV also getting paid a rights fee where they were share, they were doing revenue sharing before with, with, uh, the CW.
13:47
So this is them getting paid for, for the rights, uh, to Fox.
13:51
I, it's a pretty big deal, and I think for a lot of people, if you were, uh, you know, golf fans out there that just, LIV never really caught on for you, like me, because it was hard to find to even watch- Will you watch it now?
14:02
Probably, I mean, a little bit more. For sure a little bit more 'cause it will be more accessible. Yeah. It was on the CW before? You sure it wasn't on, uh, UPN or the WWWB? No? I did screw that up once upon a time.
14:13
Yeah. But yeah, CW and, uh, what, on YouTube, right? They were, they were streaming it. Yeah, I think I watched one swing of a golf club when they were on CW. I have consumed- Yeah...
14:22
less than three hours of LIV Golf probably. Eh, that's probably not fair. All right. Well, that's the latest on the, uh, golf landscape. Let's talk some football, some basketball, some tennis with Zach Cohen, everybody.
14:34
You can follow him on Twitter, @bettingonX. Again, part of the whole glue that holds this whole operation together, senior editor here at VSiN. How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. How are you guys? Good.
14:45
How is, how's your Australian Open going? It's good. I'm a little tired this morning. I watched the entire, uh, Holger Rune and Matteo Berrettini match last night. Oh, man.
14:53
Then I caught a little bit of my, uh, Destanee Aiava against Danielle Collins match, and I woke up a l- for, for Danielle Collins's, uh, post-match promo, which was unbelievable. [laughs] She's a darling, isn't she?
15:05
I gotta look this up. She's so good. Oh, God. Why, h- how, what, does she enjoy being the villain? Is that the whole thing? Good God. She seems to enjoy it, yeah.
15:14
For more, more or less she said that she enjoys having people in the crowd hating her because they are paying money directly to the Danielle Collins fund. Yeah. Oh my God. Yeah. [laughs] There you go. What a quote.
15:25
There you go. Were you on Aiava? I didn't realize you were on Aiava as well. I had Aiava plus one and a half sets. Oh, so you were a winner. Okay, good for you. Yep. Good for you.
15:33
I took it, uh, straight on the money line. What do you have today in the Australian Open that you're willing to share?
15:38
Uh, so I have Tomas Machac over 16 and a half games won, and I also sprinkled the money line at north of plus 300. I, I think- Wow... there's a real good shot that he actually ends up beating Novak.
15:49
And this is a match that, you know, before the draw I thought Novak had a chance of winning this thing, but when I saw the draw, I, I thought it was really difficult for him, and I definitely, you know, highlighted this match as one that I think could be particularly troublesome.
16:00
Machac is a very talented player. Last year on the Asian swing, he beat Carlos, then went to the final and almost beat Sinner in Shanghai. And I, this is just a guy that has a lot of firepower from the baseline.
16:13
Uh, he has some, had some issues in his career with, uh, fitness and, you know, cramping up, but apparently he has been working very hard on that.
16:20
If he is able to avoid that against Novak, I think that there's a real shot he wins. Novak has dropped a set in his first two matches in Australia. I, I think he's struggling with, uh, you know, just hitting winners.
16:32
Just, it looks like everything is just coming back really slow. Machac is not gonna have that trouble. Yeah, and if you watch the Djokovic win over Faria in, uh, in round two,
16:42
though Djokovic won in four, there was a s- stretch in that match where he got into the bitchy moany mode that he gets into- Yep... when, uh, when he starts to feel pressure.
16:51
Um, by the way, that's Machac spelled for the phonetic American audience Machac, M-A-C-H-A-C, or just the guy that's playing Djokovic. You probably remember it that way. Anything else in tennis?
17:03
Yeah, so I also took Jacob Fearnley to win a set against Zverev. A- and this is just one where I, I, Zverev's won his matches very easily so far, but I've been watching him and I have not been all that impressed.
17:14
Meanwhile, Fearnley's just, like, quietly a top 50 player in the world that just kind of plays the game the right way. You know, has a really solid all-around style. He can serve, you know, he can play the baseline.
17:25
I, I just think that if Zverev is off with that forehand at all, there's going to be an opening for Fearnley to win a set, so I ended up taking him to win one at plus 100.
17:34
I, it's a match that I think Zverev will win, but I just think it's gonna be a little closer than his first two. Okay.
17:40
For all of Zach's plays in the Australian Open, and all his tennis plays, vsin.com/picks for subscribers. Why do I always wanna say survivors now?
17:49
For subscribers, uh, at vsin.com/picks, not only for the Australian Open, but every tournament of the year, we're pretty much betting it, I won't say 365 days a year, but from the Australian Open to the end of the US Open, it's almost every day of the entire year.
18:04
Yep. Uh, okay, let's move to the NBA. Did, uh, ESPN also alert your phone this morning that Ja Morant made a great dunk that didn't count? [laughs] I've seen this dunk a million times. I don't get why it's going around.
18:14
I mean, it was awesome, but it did not count. I don't wanna see it. I don't wanna see it. What do you have in the NBA tonight? I have the Kings minus three and a half against the Rockets.
18:23
It's the second night of a back-to-back for Houston. Uh, they did blow out Denver, so I'm not sure the fatigue will be as big of a factor as it usually is. But the Kings have just looked really good under Doug Christie.
18:33
I'll eat some crow with that 'cause I thought that, you know, firing Mike Brown was gonna be a bad decision.
18:37
But since that move, they are seven and two, uh, fifth in the league in defensive rating, and offensively they have looked about as good as they did a few years ago when they were one of the, you know, the surprising darlings in the West.
18:48
So I, this is a game that they're going to win and cover, and I, I, I'm really, uh, intrigued by watching this team moving forward because it looks like they're a team that, you know, might be looking to make some deals.
18:58
Anything else in the association tonight? Yeah, I, I think I'm gonna play the Wizards plus 11 and a half against the Suns. [laughs] I don't like going against- Yeah...
19:06
my own team, but man, I, I've not seen them blow anybody out all season.
19:10
And, uh, this Wizards team, they at least have some size, and the Suns had to go out and trade, you know, multiple second round picks for Nick Richards, who is not a very good player because they cannot rebound.
19:20
Anyway, as a public service, once again, whenever we talk NBA, just wanna let everybody know that the Cleveland Cavaliers are 34 and five. And if this was LeBron, we'd never hear the end of it.
19:30
Nobody- You already aren't hearing the end of it. What? You, w- say again. He, he took some credit for the Cavaliers being good yesterday- Oh, no... because of course he did. Oh, no. What did he say?
19:38
So they, they asked, yeah, he, they asked him about, you know, the Cavaliers' success and he talked about how good the team is, and he said he was happy to put on first.
19:46
He and, uh, Daniel Collins friends by any chance, the two of them? [laughs] Curious. Uh, let's go to the divisional round of the National Football League.
19:53
Um, this is the weekend where, uh, we separate the men from the boys as they used to say. What do you have on Saturday and Sunday?
20:01
Yeah, so I'll have NFL Best Bets up a little bit later today, but so far I'm on the Bills. I, I just think that these teams are a little bit more even than, uh, you know, the public is, you know, is thinking.
20:11
I know that the, the odds obviously say they are very even, but I think that there's a little bit of an overreaction to that loss in Baltimore earlier in the season when the Bills were playing on a short week, and, you know, playing in a very difficult road environment.
20:23
I think now you look at this game and, uh, it's Baltimore that has to deal with the Buffalo being at home, and Josh Allen is an unbelievable home quarterback.
20:31
Lamar Jackson is a little less proven on the road, especially in the postseason. I just think that this is gonna be a close game where I, I think I'd rather have the home team.
20:39
Do you believe the winner of this game wins the Super Bowl? I think that if the Bills win, they're going to win the Super Bowl. [laughs] I'd have to think a little bit more about the Ravens Chiefs, but- Really? Wow.
20:50
Yeah. But I do think that if we see Bills, Chiefs again, Buffalo will get 'em. I, I just feel like those games have all been so close. For it to go Kansas City's way again, I'd be a little surprised.
21:01
Uh, who's the representative out of the NFC in your opinion? Man, I'm really torn on that. I would s- I guess I would say the Lions still. Yeah.
21:09
I, uh, man, I, I thought that that defense was gonna fall apart down the stretch, but Aaron Glenn did a really good job. Now they're starting to get some bodies back.
21:17
Uh, I think this game this weekend against the Commanders could be pretty close.
21:20
I was actually looking into teasing with Washington getting the points, but I, I think the Lions will end up pulling it out, and I would like them in the, in the NFC Championship. That's how I see it.
21:29
As, even as a Washington guy, I feel like it won't be a blowout. I feel like Washington comports themselves well, but still lose to a better- Yeah... Detroit Lions team, let's face it, uh, all around.
21:39
Uh, okay, that's it. So the rest of it at vsin.com, the rest of your NFL plays? Yep, I'll have NFL plays later. I'll have NBA plays up in about an hour, and tennis plays.
21:49
I have some WTA on the website as well, and I'll probably add some more stuff by the time, you know, the, the, the card starts.
21:55
Any thoughts on the college football national championship, because we won't get a chance to talk to you between now and then? Yeah, so I haven't put anything in yet.
22:01
I'm leaning Notre Dame just because I do think that that defense is really legit, and I think it's a lot of points.
22:06
Uh, I, it's another one like, like that Lions game, I'd be really surprised if Ohio State actually loses, but, you know, winning by more than eight i- is a different question.
22:14
I think that the Fighting Irish have a really good secondary. Uh, and there's a chance that Howard struggles as a passer. I just don't trust Notre Dame to score enough points to win the game. Okay.
22:23
Zach Cohen, four different sports. Well, three if you count college and pro football as one. Uh, thank you, sir.
22:28
Betting On X is where you can find Zach, and again, all of his thoughts in articles and all of his plays at vsin.com/picks. Follow him at Betting On X on Twitter.
22:38
We'll come back, a glance at MLB awards that are already out there in the betting markets, and then Jordan Sherwood on UFC 311. Crack to come as well. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:52
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23:19
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23:32
I haven't even looked at tweets yet. What am I doing? Well, we got 'em. We got 'em. I- We get 'em and we got 'em... might, I wonder, should I read 'em 'cause I haven't looked at 'em.
23:39
They could be, I don't have no idea what I'm looking at. I like whenever you ask me this question [laughs]. Should I Ron Burgundy through 'em all? Well, let's find out what happens.
23:45
Uh, let's actually save the tweets for the, for the next segment 'cause I wanna say this.
23:48
Uh, tomorrow we are starting as a network 24/7 on Sirius channel 158, 24/7 VSiN with its long-awaited return to Sirius, SiriusXM channel 158. Uh, and, uh, we'll have all our great guests here on the numbers game.
24:04
I don't know, maybe we'll even add some, some great guests tomorrow, uh, just for the, uh, celebration of it.
24:09
But I am going to be, before I do a numbers game tomorrow, do you know what I'm gonna be on, uh, Kelly, going to be on? Where are you going, Gil?
24:14
Uh, I am gonna be on Sway in the Morning, Sway's, uh, Shade 45 channel on SiriusXM, um- That's awesome... Sway's Universe
24:24
That is fantastic What is, what are the chances of me, uh, going Kanye on him and being like, "You ain't got all the answers, Sway." [laughs] Kanye's famous line on him.
24:32
Uh, Sway and I used to work together at, uh, KML in San Francisco, so as part of our promoting our Channel 158, I'm gonna go on that show and promote it to an audience that probably, um, may not be aware of us, let's say.
24:44
I can't wait. Yeah. What ti- what time is this at? That's a great question. [laughs] Uh, it's in the hour, all I know is that it's in the hour before we're on. Okay.
24:52
So in the 9:00 AM, the 9:00 AM Eastern, 6:00 AM Pacific hour. And, uh, s- so Steve Cohen was saying to me, s- so I said to him, I said to Steve Cohen, I said, uh, uh, "Do I, should I be expecting a call?"
25:05
And he said, "Uh, well, his producer Torch, uh, probably will have you call him." So I was like, [laughs] "Okay. His producer Torch, I will call Torch." Be like, "Put me on with Sway.
25:18
You ain't got all the answers, Sway." Kanye's famous line. Oh, man. I can't wait. I, I w- Looking forward to it... I will be listening intently to that. Oh, yeah.
25:24
Um, Sway was the d- also what I, uh, by the way, Achilles story. When I popped the first one, Sway was the first one, uh, over me, 'cause we were both playing on the KML Jammers basketball team. Are you serious?
25:33
He was the guy who goes, 'cause I was like, "Who f-" I was like, "I got fouled." He goes, "No one touched you." [laughs] I hope you're gonna- That first story, I-... I hope you're bringing up that story.
25:40
I hope you're bringing up that story Oh, I should, I probably should, I mean- Yeah... yeah, I should. You absolutely should. Um, baseball. We've gotten a few tweets about baseball. Sway, remember when [laughs]... No?
25:48
[laughs] Sway's gonna be like, "What's your name again?" Um, no, that dude remembers me, trust me. You don't remember my multiple Achilles stories? [laughs] He not, he, he does, he's not aware of the second one.
25:57
Maybe I'll bring that up. Maybe you bring it up. [laughs] Hey, do you know I had another one?
26:01
Um, let's, let's talk baseball, 'cause we've gotten a few tweets from folks who are like, "Hey, uh, let's, uh, you know, baseball's only, uh, X amount of days away."
26:09
And, uh, sure enough, pitchers and catchers right around the corner. So FanDuel put these out. DraftKings has them up as well. These are MLB awards for the 2025 season.
26:16
And yes, we will on this show for sure be betting monthlies, monthly season, uh, month- monthly wins, not monthly season wins. Monthly wins, which we did every month last year. Cashed on the Astros in June.
26:29
Barely missed on the, on the Guardians at 65 to 1, uh, in March, April. We'll do that. But this is awards. First gander at these. Aaron Judge is your short shot for American League MVP, 3 to 1. Bobby Witt Jr.
26:41
of the KC Royals plus 450. Remember, he was the, uh, the clear number two this past year. And I hate... And, and there's everybody else, by the way, starting with Yordan Alvarez. Mike Trout, 16 to 1, three-time MVP.
26:55
Mike Trout is there at 16 to 1. Ooh. Um, problem with Mike Trout is you just don't know if he's gonna play a full season. I mean, he's kind of that guy now. And then what?
27:04
Team success, too, I guess, would be a bigger concern this year. Yeah. I don't know that- Well, the Angels are never good. [laughs] That never prevented Trout from winning it before, so.
27:12
There's our guy Corey Seager, also at 16 to 1. It, my take on the Am- American League MVP is not gonna be a, uh, a wild one.
27:18
It is simply exactly what I said mid-season or, you know, s- at some point last year, which is remember the Royals, speaking of those monthly win totals bets. Mm-hmm. After we won on the Astros at 17 to 1 and 25 to 1 in
27:33
June, we had the Royals in July. Didn't get there. But Bobby Witt Jr., I, uh, watching him every night, and I remember saying this on air, like, he is spectacular. Like, if he doesn't get on base, you're more surprised.
27:47
Wasn't it, like, a month straight where he bat over.500? It, incredible. I remember at one point, yeah, there was some- Yeah... it was some cartoon stat for a long stretch. And what did I say on this show?
27:56
And I still can't recommend betting, or recommending to you- Yeah... to bet him for MVP, because Aaron Judge plays for the Yankees. And as long as Aaron Judge is hitting home runs, poor Bobby Witt Jr.
28:07
has no shot at this. Certainly at plus 450 I wouldn't recommend it either. So I don't think there's a bet here, just at a glance here. And I think Aaron Judge, is there a, is there a Yankees bias?
28:17
If a guy in pinstripes hits 50-plus homeruns, uh, home runs, and by the way, I think Aaron Judge's home run over/under is 51 and a half heading into this year. You just can't make another recommendation in good faith.
28:30
You can't. Let's go to Ni- Great- I don't believe you can. Great bet for me last year on the under 42 and a half I believe his home runs were set at.
28:36
Because remember in spring training, he was complaining about all the injuries. His toe. We talked about his toe. Yeah. Was nobody making a big deal about his toe? Apparently not.
28:43
God, I thought that was a great bet at the time. I'm like, "The guy's telling you he's not gonna be able to play during the season." Kelly has a history of, uh, "Shoulder's fine." Yeah.
28:51
My, my baseball bets are- One of the first prime-... quite something... one of the first primetime actions, uh, Cody Bellinger had a, uh, shoulder issue.
28:57
So, uh, Kelly bet an under in one of the World Series games, [laughs] and he took one swing and parked it over the right field fence on air. Kelly's like, "Shoulder's fine."
29:05
Will and I did the same thing with Shohei- Yeah... uh, on this time around. Speaking of Will, Will was the guy who came on this show, middle of May, and said, "Aaron Judge, 16 to 1. Take it." Remember those 16 to 1s?
29:14
Yeah, those don't exist. Now, National League MVP, Shohei is your short shot at 2 to 1, plus 200. I gotta tell you, this is just different. To me, this is a bet.
29:25
And I know it's only 2 to 1, and I know that's not very sexy, but I don't know if you know this about Shohei Ohtani. Doesn't only swing the bat, also pitches this year. Yeah.
29:34
And if he is as good as we remember him doing that, I don't know how you can vote for anybody else. Like, if he has another season where he's spectacular at the plate, you know, otherworldly at the plate,
29:48
fiddy-fiddy kind of guy, and then he's, like, a above average pitcher, let alone a great one, how do you not give it to him? I- It would take something superstar-like from somebody else off the charts to beat that.
30:00
So to me, you may never see a better price than this. That's all I was gonna ask. Yeah. That's all I was, I, 'cause I think I'm gonna join you this year. I, I'm not missing out on it this time.
30:10
And I, I'm, I'm a little surprised it's this long, actually. Will actually asked Felika and me, like, what I thought the Shohei opener would be. I thought it would be short minus money. I did.
30:21
I, I was just gonna say, I would've guessed- Yeah... even money. But- Something like that just- Most-... uh, uh, before the season... let's go to Saido. I, I mean, is he, is there any...
30:29
expectations of hi- of him being limited pitching-wise or anything w- coming back this year? Or is he just supposed to be a full go? I believe he's a full go. Uh, okay.
30:38
That's, I haven't heard anything otherwise either, so all right. Well, when we get to National Cy Young, I'll tell you about someone who's not a full go who I think I might make a bet on.
30:45
Uh, American League Cy Young, Tarik Skubal is your, uh, defending Cy Young pitcher, four to one. Then you got Gerrit Cole at six to one, Cole Reagan's at nine to one. Jacob deGrom.
30:58
If you believe Jacob deGrom can be healthy, maybe you are interested in the little Jacob deGrom at 11 to one. I can't. Too much of an injury risk. Uh, Gerrit Cole, former Cy Young Award winner, 16 to one.
31:10
Um, I don't think there's a bet for me here. Skubal at four to one is not sh- not long enough at this point. Yeah. Um, it's not a Shohei situation, so there's no bet for me here. But if we go to National League Cy Young,
31:23
I c- I can be talked into. You talk about, 'cause so Paul Skeens is a three to one. I agree with what Jason Weingarten said yesterday.
31:30
We all love Paul Skeens, we all think he's great, but three to one, I'm not making that bet. I mean, those, that's m- those are mammoth expectations- It's s-... for a year too, right? For, for less than a year.
31:40
For, for, yeah. Yeah, right. So I, I can't, I can't in good conscience do it. Now, can he become the greatest pitcher and easily win it? Sure, but it's not a bet for me.
31:48
Uh, defending National League Cy Young champ, Chris Sale, is eight to one. Two-time Cy Young champ, Ty- Cy Young Award winner, I should say, not a Cy Young champ. What's that? Blake Snell's 10 to one.
32:00
Um, Spencer Strider is who I'm looking at at 22 to one. Ooh. Now, Spencer Strider's coming off the old UCL surgery. He won't be back in a Braves uniform till June, beginning of June. So it's not gonna be like la- June...
32:15
it's supposed to be early June, it's not supposed to be late June. So if that's the case, you're talking about missing two months. You're talking about missing one-third of the regular season. Here's the thing.
32:23
When we tend to view that from the beginning of a season, we tend to think, "Oh, wow, he's gonna miss a third of the season. You can't possibly in good conscience bet on that." I disagree.
32:32
There have been so many times where players come out of nowhere and they, like, you know, players who have been playing, turn it around late in the season, and I'm talking about, like, after July even.
32:43
So I don't view that as, uh, I mean, it obviously it's a detriment to some degree, but I don't view it as the large detriment that others do.
32:52
So Spencer Strider, who, again, when last we saw Spencer Strider pitch a baseball, he's pretty darn good at it, 22 to one, I could actually be talked into that.
33:01
Uh, you, you wouldn't, you wouldn't wait, though, till the season starts if he's gonna miss time? I mean, this number's probably not getting shorter, right? It's probably only remaining there or getting longer.
33:11
I don't know. I mean, everybody- Okay... knows he's not playing, right? And he's 22 to one right now. It would, I mean, yes, if, if Skeens went ballistic, he would get longer, and then you might not wanna bet at all.
33:20
But I'm saying if that doesn't happen, right, there's, there's two ways to look at it.
33:23
The train may leave the station, but the train may al- might also be parked, and you'll never see the 22 to one that favorable either.
33:30
So anyway, first glance, first thoughts, um, Shohei, Strider, yeah, I could be talked into that. But not on the American League side neither. We'll come back. UFC 311, these will be some interesting bets.
33:42
Good night on Saturday. Jordan Sherwood next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN fans, you're in luck.
33:57
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34:04
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34:12
Book your 2025 stay now at CircaLasVegas.com and use VSiN15, that's VSiN one five, to get 15% off. Your Vegas adventure starts here. We got tweets at Beatting The Book. Always appreciate it. What are you laughing at?
34:24
We got a couple great tweets. [laughs] Oh, a couple great tweets? We got plenty of them. Oh, man. I don't know how great all of them are, but we'll see. I've read all these things from, like, a half hour ago.
34:31
Uh, let's see here. Yeah, I haven't looked at all, all of these. Um, let's see here. Rock 12, I'll start there. Sorry, Savannah. Rock 12. "Can't wait for the breakdown on the classic, uh, AO tonight," Australian Open.
34:42
"Badosa-Kostyuk. Be hard pressed to get a match with more talent on the same court than this." I don't know. Raducanu-Anysimova, Anysimova was pretty darn good yesterday, wasn't it?
34:53
But you're right about Badosa and Kostyuk, if you know what I mean. Uh, Jamie Leyva, Jaime Leyva perhaps. "I think Wemba Nyama heard the whistle and didn't go full effort towards the end of the play.
35:01
Also, it didn't happen. Never mind the Wem- [laughs] that Wemby had eight blocks that did count. What are we even talking about? Have a great day, gentlemen." I'm with you, man.
35:09
Gambla Lord, "When looking at-" It's just one highlight. Have some fun in life, people. Come on. Uh, let's see here. This is from, by the way, this Lerner-Tien match, three to three in the, uh, in the
35:20
f- final set tiebreaker. Yep. Remember, it goes to 10. Goes to 10? Yeah. That's how they all finish the, the, the deciding set, goes to 10 now. Uh, let's see.
35:28
Wet Willy Colon says, "Zackin' Crack Thursday while watching Lerner-Tien. Uh, thanks for making my 30 minutes on the elliptical go by fast." Mako, "Sway in the Morning was not on the bingo card."
35:37
Murphy Jim, "Gill, as a Ravens fan, I appreciate your support for my team, however, I cannot bet on the Ravens winning this game. I can't trust Harbaugh, Monken, or Zack Orr, let alone Tucker. Seen this movie before.
35:49
Love the show." Thank you. Um, imagine that, and I think that's true. Some people can't trust Tucker. Imagine we've gotten to that point. It's crazy.
35:56
I heard someone else say that the other day, and I- Will, Will says it a lot... I'm like, "We're living in that world now." We're living in that world. Like, what is going on? And it's not wrong.
36:04
Larry Fresh, "Can't wait to hear you on Sway tomorrow. KML reunion on Sirius." Brandon Kyles, "Gill on Sway in the Morning? Can't wait to hear you spit that hot fire. Just make sure to have- [laughs]...
36:14
just make sure to have Basewitter on speed dial as a backup." [laughs] You guys should do a spot together, yeah. Hey, s- hey, um, I would call Basewitter and be like, "Hey, Mark, uh, I'm on this show.
36:24
I'm gonna need you." [laughs] Burt Wedemeyer, "Wow, that is so dope. You're gonna be on Real Sway's show, Sway's Universe Manana. Peeps better not sleep on my man Gill's '90s hip-hop and R&B knowledge. He gets mad props.
36:35
I've heard all the subtle references throughout the year on his show." And then, uh, oh, and Rob L, "So we're parlaying Ohtani MVP with Iga French?" Mr. B, "Max Freed, AL Cy Young, sneaky, sneaky. What odds?
36:49
How do you skip him?" That's a great point. How did I skip him? Well, Max Freed was not on the board. Max Freed with the New York Yankees. Did, did I miss him? Hold on. Yeah.
36:56
No, you're right, I should absolutely have, uh, thought about Max Freed, but he was not even pictured. Brandon Kyles, "Am I getting my guests mixed up? Is it Spaur who spits bars?"
37:04
No, it is, you are getting your, your guests mixed up. It is Mark Borchardt, Mark Borchardt. And Steven- Freed, 25 to one. 25 to one? Yeah. It's an interesting play. Um, Brosek1870, "Happy New Year, guys. Is it too late?
37:17
So happy about SiriusXM. Don't guests have to freestyle on Sway in the Morning?" [laughs] Yes, if they're in the studio with Sway, they have to freestyle. I'm hoping he does not ask me to freestyle on the phone.
37:27
[sighs] Savannah did ask me earlier if you were going to. Oh, man. I don't know. This is, this is, uh, now I'm getting nervous.
37:32
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, let's, uh, talk some UFC so I don't have to think about that anymore. UFC 311 is o- is upon us.
37:38
Jordan Sherwood, our buddy, joins us, uh, from, uh, his lair courtesy of the, uh, Progressive Guest Line. Okay, you can follow Jordan @woodonESPN1000, co-host of the unnamed MMA podcast on ESPN Chicago.
37:51
Jordan, how you doing, man? Well, let's be accurate, Gil. It's actually my son Maxwell's lair, uh- Oh... that I'm in currently right now.
37:58
It's not my lair, but nonetheless, yeah, happy to talk with you guys about a big time fight card, uh, on Saturday night, UFC 311. Wow. Maxwell's doing pretty well, by the way. Very nice.
38:07
[laughs] I always pictured you as, uh, sleeping with a foam finger, uh, ne- near your bed. [laughs] So yeah, I don't know. [laughs] Yeah. But there's, Woody's behind me.
38:15
He's getting hung, uh, by his neck on the door there. He is. [laughs] If you see that. By the way, real quick before we talk UFC, you're a Chicago Bears fan. Give me t- 15 seconds, Caleb Williams' first year was?
38:26
I think average. Uh, you know, I think he showed glimpses of both being great, but also making those rookie mistakes. He needs help. That, that's where I'll leave it.
38:37
He needs help, especially up front on that offensive line. Okay. Let's go to UFC 311. Now, first of all, q- first question, this was supposed, this is supposed to be in Inglewood.
38:46
Uh, is it staying in LA or is it moving to Vegas? What's the story? Yeah, the latest that I've heard, it's staying in LA.
38:54
You know, Dana White was kind of paying attention obviously to the horrific stuff that's going on in Los Angeles, but really, uh, looking at what the, the NBA was doing, uh, keeping some of the games scheduled there.
39:04
So by all accounts, it's still remaining i- in Inglewood and then going on as planned for a, a Saturday night. All right. Let's go to the main event lightweight, uh, Islam Makhachev against, uh, Arman C- Tsarukyan.
39:19
And correct me if I'm wrong here, Makhachev, his mentor is the great Nurmagomedov. Uh, I'm talking about Khabib in this case. Yep, yep.
39:27
And he is, some people think actually has the tools to be better if you, if one can believe that. Tsarukyan, though, didn't he take him the distance the first time, like his first ever fight?
39:39
So why- Yeah, I mean, abso-... so why, why, why is this line as big as it is here, minus 370 on Makhachev? Yeah, a couple of things to that. Yes, this is a rematch. Uh, they, they met several years ago.
39:49
It was Arman Tsarukyan's UFC debut. He took it on short notice and went three rounds, uh, with Makhachev, uh, in that fight, uh, both showcasing outstanding grappling and wrestling.
40:00
Um, and you are right, Makhachev is, uh, the protege of, uh, Khabib Nurmagomedov. He's known in a lot of MMA circles as Khabib, uh, 2.0 because he's got the, the grappling acumen and better striking.
40:14
He's currently listed as the number one pound for pound fighter in the UFC rankings, and I believe that, that he has the talent if he wanted to go up to a weight class at 170 and compete there.
40:23
He probably could win the championship because he's that talented. And this is, uh, uh, what I say about this fight for maybe the casual MMA fan is, you know the meme, uh, of the Spider-Man pointing at each other? Yes.
40:34
Um, like that, that, that's what this is except that Tsarukyan, uh, is Tobey Maguire and Makhachev is, uh, um, uh, what, what's the new guy's name? The new, the new Spider-Man, Tom Holland. Like he's got the better suit.
40:47
He's got the better technology. He's got the better, you know, attributes. Girlfriend. And that's why he's such a big time favorite.
40:52
[laughs] Like they're gonna mirror a lot of things together, but the, the, the, the areas that Makhachev has an advantage are decisive, and I think it's on the feet. So I, I don't think that we're gonna get...
41:05
Uh, we'll get a similar type of fight early on in the fight, but I believe that not only will, uh, Islam be and still champion, but I think there's value in him winning the fight inside the distance. Hmm.
41:18
So I think you might wanna look for a prop, be it a KO or a submission win for Makhachev to get that at plus money, 'cause I do believe he is that much better than Tsarukyan and will get the finish on Saturday night.
41:29
Okay, Makhachev, Makhachev- What a pro. He just powered through that... beautiful. What a pro. I said girlfriend, he didn't even act like I said it. [laughs] Makhachev, you're like, "Well, he's the better Spider-Man.
41:37
He has this better, this better." What about Andrew Garfield? Who's that one? Uh, so Makhachev inside the distance, plus money. It's about plus 150 right around now, so, uh, shop around for that.
41:46
The co-main, a bantamweight, uh, this is interesting because Merab Dvalishvili is the champion, and he's the big dog here because nobody wants to fight Khabib's cousin Umar.
42:00
Uh, Umar Nurma- Nurmagamedov, pardon me, I have trouble pronouncing that. Right. Uh, and Umar is the massive favorite. Nobody wants to fight Umar, but Dvalishvili's like, "All right, well, I guess I got to."
42:12
Probably not the guy he wants to fight. Yeah, look, I mean, yeah, no one wants to fight Umar. Obviously, he's undefeated. Uh, uh, he showcased how good he is in his last fight against, uh, Corey Sandhagen.
42:23
Um, but I- I- I think these, these lines are off. I think Merab's being disrespected. Not a lot of people do like him. He's not a popular fighter.
42:31
In a lot of people's opinions, Merab would've been champion earlier on in his career, but his buddy, Aljamain Sterling, was the champion at bantamweight, so he didn't fight for the title.
42:39
He just beat a bunch of former champions and number one contenders. His pressure, his takedowns are relentless.
42:45
He has set UFC records for amount of takedown attempts, uh, in a fight and, and takedowns, uh, successfully made, uh, in, in a lot of his fights. And Umar Nurmagomedov is not the grappler like his last name, uh, says.
42:57
He's more of a kickboxer. He's gonna throw out, uh, you know, feint kicks, and I think that's where gonna, Merab is gonna be able to take advantage, uh, and maybe get some takedowns.
43:05
He took the title away from a better striker in Sean O'Malley in his last fight. So, uh, I- for this fight, Merab's pace is relentless, his takedowns are relentless.
43:15
I'm gonna have a small play, uh, on Merab, uh, especially at those plus odds. That plus money I think is out of whack. I'm not gonna be surprised if Umar gets his hand raised. I mean, again, he's undefeated for a reason.
43:25
But the odds as they currently are right now are not right, so I like Merab. Small little play on that, uh, to, for him to be and still champion come Saturday night.
43:34
All right, fading Umar there, a little bit of a fade, uh, with a half a unit there. And then, uh, the, the last fight before the co-main, uh, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill. You have a couple bets on Hill here.
43:47
Y- yeah, I just think that Hill's a bad matchup for Jiri Prochazka. Don't know where he's at right now. He's talked about moving down to middleweight. His defense is always leaky, kind of leans with his head.
43:56
Gil, I've talked about that with you before, that's not a way to go into an MMA fight. Uh, a- and Hill is a patient fighter. He's cerebral. He's got great boxing, and, you know, at times has come up big in the moment.
44:08
I know he got knocked out b- by Alex Pereira. Actually, both these guys, the last time they were in the octagon, did so.
44:13
But I think Jamahal Hill not only wins the fight, but he knocks out Jiri Prochazka, uh, probably in the first or second round, so there's plus money on that prop, plus for him at the money line.
44:23
It's just a bad matchup stylistically for Jiri Prochazka. I don't like him to win the fight. Jordan, thank you so much. Appreciate it, man. All right, fellas, thanks for having me. Jordan Sherwood.
44:32
Crack on the other side, right here on the Numbers Game
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