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Jan 17, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 17, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | January 17, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:36
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. VSiN on Sirius XM 158 from here to eternity, uh, all day long, 24/7.
0:25
Thanks for, uh, finding us once again on Sirius XM. Uh, we get tweets that beat the book. By the way, Chris Fallica coming up here momentarily, Steve Fezzik, Dr. Bob, football, football, football.
0:34
Nasty Nell on Twitter, now hailing from the great state of Florida, from high school announcer to the pros, formerly known as producer number nine, Kelly the Cut Man Bidlin.
0:43
Uh, tried to get Kelly a nickname after I was on with Sway this morning and his producer's name was Torch. That's all I could think about, was we gotta get Kelly a better name. Buddhist man, K. Rumple Bidlin.
0:51
[laughs] Everybody's showing me, uh, snapshots of their Sirius XM app now at channel 158, and how my name is misspelled. Come on. Is that Missed H pointing that out as well? Uh, Larry Fresh, "Welcome back to Sirius.
1:04
I like Hurricane for Kelly's nickname," so that's I'll be, uh, that's what I will be calling him. "Kudos on the E40 Hurricane segment, Gil." Oh, you're very welcome. Chuckism1, "Here's my vote, Kelly Pitchfork Bidlin.
1:15
What say you?" Pitchfork. Uh, JoeC714, "Will the VSiN app still be active now that you're on Sirius? Also, all the picks and articles should be moved there."
1:23
Yes, the VSiN app will still be active, and if you want all the articles, you go to vsin.com. They are all there plentiful. Uh, but the VSiN app is outstanding. It will remain. Uh, Colin Murphy, "There it is.
1:35
Kelly just unintentionally installed his own nickname. Boom, Bidlin." [laughs] Double J's, "Lovely night of tennis wagering. I played your Umberto Games Over, which was going to be a winner until Fies retired."
1:46
Yes, it was. "Also had Mensik." Oh, you had Mensik, I'm so sorry. Blew a two-set lead as, uh, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won his second straight match coming back from a two sets to none deficit.
1:59
Bobby Gettys, "I don't care what anyone says, that tennis grading explanation was in fact riveting. But actually, I never heard it explained that way before, and it makes total sense." Thank you, sir.
2:07
Uh, and then finally Manny Davison, "Ovi is gonna do it, fellas." Talking about Ovechkin this year. "Netted one last night for an OT winner, making it 21 goals on the season with 21 to go to break the record."
2:17
He's talking about, uh, Wayne Gretzky's, uh, all-time goals record in the Na- in the NHL. "Great Eight has his 21 goals in just 21 games, missing 16 games due to injury." Yes, absolutely.
2:28
Um, and we all thought, as Washington people, we all thought that Ovechkin, the way that his age curve was going, his age curve was in s- you know, was, his declining goal production was going to push it to next year.
2:40
But not, not the case. He has been, uh, scoring at an unbelievable pace once again. Speaking of, like, uh, Washingtonians, Rufus Peabody, he texted me yesterday he was going to Detroit. How stupid am I?
2:49
We're bringing Chris Fallica, The Bear from Fox Sports, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Rufus texts me he's going to Detroit, not for one second did I put two and two together, 'cause he's a...
2:58
This is what I love, you know, 'cause as, as big sports betters, people, there's some too cool for school crowd. They're like, "Ah, you still like teams or sports betters. We're better than that."
3:06
I love that Rufus still maintains his Orioles love and his Skins love. I love that about him. No, th- th- th- that's great, and it's the same thing I was discussing with some friends.
3:16
Uh, like if Miami were to make a college football playoff run and I didn't have a show to do, like yeah, I'll absolutely go and, and hang out and wa- watch my alma mater, uh, play for either a berth in the championship game or whatever.
3:26
And obviously didn't have to worry about that, but uh, yeah, no, hey, y- y- you kind of get jaded sometimes, especially being in the media, about how you're not really allowed to root for your favorite team or root for the Yankees or root for the Jets or root for the Islanders or whoever else.
3:39
But, uh, hey, it, it's good to, hey, still have a little bit of a connection 'cause it gives you a little bit of a flashback to your youth. Yeah, and that's how we all got here, right?
3:47
We all g- little boys loving sports, just innocently, you know?
3:50
We didn't- Little, little boys just innocently locking themselves in their, in their bedroom after Don Shula cheated in the 1982 AFC Championship Game and didn't put a tarp on the field- Wow...
4:00
and knew that the Jets were gonna beat them, and then that kid didn't get a chance to see his New York Jets beat the Washington Redskins in the Super Bowl. [laughs] Wow. That went on for way too long, as A.J.
4:11
Dewey takes another fumble or interception back to the end zone for the Dolphins. Yeah, that was terrible. Uh- It ruined me...
4:17
what, uh, Chris is referring to is the AFC Championship after the 1982 season, where the Jets traveled to Miami for the AFC Championship, while Washington ended up winning the Super Bowl, uh, out of the NFC, beating the Dolphins eventually.
4:29
But in that AFC Championship, Shu- it was just a downpour of rain, and Shula, uh, correctly sort of surmised that the Jets were a much faster team and win, and could benefit from a quick field, so he's like, "Let it rain."
4:43
And the Dolphins, uh, I think it shut out the Jets, didn't they? 14-nothing. 14-nothing. A.J.'s Dewey score twice or just one of them? No, I, I- Yeah, yeah... think Andra Franklin might have had the other touchdown.
4:52
That's true. Andra Franklin reference on the show. All right, uh, Chris, for those, uh, new here on Sirius XM 158, you probably know Chris, the beloved Chris Fallica, uh, from his days at ESPN doing College GameDay.
5:03
Now he does Big Noon Saturdays at Fox Sports. Of course, he has his own podcast, The Bear Bets Pods, in case you're unaware, doing pro football and college football.
5:11
Let's start with college football, your bread and butter. Uh, National Championship on Monday night, Ohio State, eight-point favorites, eight-and-a-half point favorites against Notre Dame.
5:20
I'll ask the same thing, we got it at eight consensus. I'll ask the same thing about Notre Dame that I have been about the Texans and the Commanders and to some extent the Rams.
5:29
Do the Irish have a puncher's chance here, let alone- Yes... covering the spread? Oh, they do. Yeah, no, they, they absolutely do.
5:35
They, they are so well-coached, and they do the little things in the games that, that you need for an underdog to, to win outright.
5:42
You, you look at the middle eight of games, uh, you, right before half, both Georgia and Penn State right after half, Georgia, Penn State scoring right before the half, scoring right after the half.
5:53
Those ga- those middle eight, uh, period of the game was massive for, for Notre Dame coming back and, and winning those games.
6:00
A- and you look at Ohio State, they've had a propensity in some of those games, whether it was Michigan or whether it was Penn State, they've, they turn the ball over at times.
6:08
And look- They are not as talented as Ohio State. They're gonna need things to go their way.
6:14
Uh, they're gonna need th- some reshuffling on their offensive line to go their way to kind of protect Riley Leonard and open up some holes for Bryce and Jeremiah Love on the ground.
6:22
I- I- I me- I- they're gonna have to play close to a perfect game to do it, but it, it's certainly puncher's chance, absolutely.
6:28
Where- This is not, this is not Washington or ECU in the national title game the last couple years where they were just completely overmatched. All right, puncher's chance is one thing. Let's rephrase that.
6:37
Where's your actual bet though? I bet Ohio State minus eight. [laughs] Okay.
6:42
That's- A- a- and the reason I say, you know, typically the spreads have not mattered in these college football championships and semifinal games lately.
6:50
Like, you look at the last six games, th- either the favorite covered and won easily or the underdog won outright.
6:57
I- I- if you look at the, the, the College Football Playoff, the BCS championship game, 12 underdogs have covered, nine have won outright.
7:04
So, like, typically i- it's either favorite wins and covers or underdog wins outright, and I tend to lean towards Ohio State as being the favorite and covering here.
7:13
I, I think what we've seen from the Ohio State team in the College Football Playoff, I think they power rate a little bit higher than what Ohio State from the regular season, uh, would, would power rate as.
7:25
A- a- and look, I, I think y- at this point, Jeff Schwartz and I had this conversation o- on the pods about how Notre Dame defensively with Al Golden, the type of defense they play with, with a lot of man coverage, we know that, we know that Will Howard has a very good QBR, 15 plus yards in the air.
7:42
He's got the great wide receivers. You're not gonna change who you are at this point if you're Ohi- if you're Notre Dame defensively. You got, you gotta d- do what got you here.
7:50
But, but, but I just think Ohio State is more well-equipped than, say, Indiana or Penn State or even Georgia with Gunner Stockman, the backup quarterback there, to, to handle Notre Dame's defense.
8:01
So, uh, yeah, I, I do ultimately think this will be a, uh, I don't wanna, I don't wanna say resounding thumping of Notre Dame, but, but I think this, this probably ends up somewhere in that, that 10 to 17-point range Ohio State win.
8:13
Maybe they put a, an exclamation point on it. And I don't, I don't wanna linger on this too much, but I do feel compelled to ask you.
8:19
Where does there's too much time in between these games rank in your ways to improve the 12-team playoff heading into next year? I- it ranks in there. It's certainly not at the top.
8:30
I think it's the seeding of the teams, o- of the bracket, which is the number one problem i- within college football right now.
8:36
But I, I think the issue is you're gonna have to get the Rose Bowl and, and the Sugar Bowl, they, to play ball, and you're gonna have to get, what are we gonna do with these conference title games? How do we handle that?
8:46
Uh, you don't wanna have a game the same day as either the Heisman Trophy ceremony or the Army-Navy game.
8:51
So, like, there are a lot of things with the college football calendar that, that are gonna need to fall into place. But yeah, the, the fact that you've had these random different- Oh...
9:00
uh, periods of games between the games has been kind of ridiculous. And I get it. You have to dance around the NFL. They're not being real nice about it, so you can't, like, lock into Monday nights.
9:08
They were there f- they were there first, though, Gil. I will say that. Yeah. Yeah. But, you know, pick a night and then just go with that night for these, I think.
9:15
Uh, about the NFL, uh, four games obviously, one not like the others. Obviously, the Ravens and Bills is the marquee matchup. It's the closely, the most closely lined game.
9:24
Where are your bets throughout the weekend in the NFL? I, my, you and I are kinda head-to-head here on the NFC, and I, and I, I know, uh, Fezz is, like, on, like, the Eagles as well. Yeah, I like the Eagles.
9:36
I, I just think what we saw in that first game at SoFi and the Rams now go on the road in an unfavorable weather situation, a hostile environment, and do a 180 from what we saw in, in that game out at SoFi.
9:49
You look at the Eagles' scoring drives in that game, 12 plays, 10 plays, 10 plays, eight plays, 12 plays. The Rams just could not get them off the field because Barkley ran for 250-something yards in the game.
9:59
So I, I, I just wonder if the Rams are gonna be able to do that now o- on the road in the, i- in, in Philadelphia to be able to w- get a result here.
10:08
Uh, and, you know, we talk about, like, the short week, but it, the, uh, the, everything that the Rams have had to deal with both on the field and off the field, I, I think that does matter here, and I think the Eagles now had a week to shake off a little bit of rust.
10:20
I'm not gonna say they were perfect last week. I don't wanna pin it all on the rust, but, but I, I think the fact that they got a game, they'll be a little bit crisper as well. So I played the Eagles.
10:28
I stole a bit from my colleague Jeff Schwartz over on BEAR bets. Uh, Kenneth Gainwell over nine and a half rushing yards.
10:35
I played that because you do see him come in quite a bit and get a couple of carries, so I think 10 yards very likely there. And I played a weird one in the, uh, in, in the Lions-Commanders games.
10:45
I played short, I played longest field goal, rather, in the game, under 46 and a half yards. And, and it kinda goes- Ooh... with you were talking about with, like- I like that...
10:54
uh, like the high variance, like, o- on the podcast. Like, these are two coaches that love to go for it. If they got fourth and four on the 38 yard line, they're not kicking a 55-yard field goal. They're going for it.
11:05
So I, I, I think you're gonna see maybe a, a reduced number of field goal attempts in this game, and certainly, uh, a, a longer field goal with the potential to have a, a touchdown as a r- result of the drive.
11:15
Touchdowns are gonna win this game, being that it, it seems to be a higher scoring game. So under 46 and a half yards as the longest, uh, field goal in that game. Under 46 and a half yards in the, uh, Skins-Lions game.
11:28
Uh, interesting prop, and I kind of, I'm, I'm with you on that. I li- I like the logic behind it. Chris Fallica, everybody, @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L- HTTR, Gil. Let's go, baby. What up? Left-hand up.
11:38
By the way, I hate that left-hand up thing. I don't know why I just did that. [laughs] Uh, HTTR forever. Uh, Chris Fallica, @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A on the old Twitter machine, the Bear Bets Pod from Fox Sports.
11:48
Steve Fezzik in studio next on The Numbers Game at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
In case you missed it, VSiN, the sports betting network now live 24/7 on SiriusXM channel 158. Whether you're at home, on the road, or on the go, now there's more ways than ever to tune in to VSiN.
12:12
Stream us live on vsin.com, the VSiN Watch app, YouTube TV, iHeartRadio, Fire TV, Roku, and now SiriusXM. We are pumped to be back. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book Um, I'm sure some about Sirius as well.
12:25
I'm, I'm gonna guess. I always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody. Uh, people now are sort of objecting to the, uh, the Kelly Bidlin new nickname thing.
12:33
Rolando Sperando, "Midlin was the nickname I remember when I first heard Kelly on VSIN. Whatever happened to that?" Yeah, Kelly Midlin Bidlin. We used to always call him that. I don't know if he middles anymore, though.
12:44
So can he be Kelly Midlin Bidlin anymore if he doesn't middle? Uh, Jason McKinney, "After hearing, uh, his tennis golf intro, his nickname should be Country Club."
12:51
Bobby Knuckles, "For as long as I've known Kelly, his nickname has been Kelly Midlin Bidlin, but if I'm entering one into the suggestion box, I say Keyboard Crusher. I know you can hear him typing, Gil." Yes, I can.
13:00
Ryan High, "At the semi-legendary second hour of the Friday numbers game show on VSIN with Gil and Kelly, we have a great shot at finding out if the dump button has changed with the reunion, uh, of VSIN and SiriusXM.
13:10
Lots of pressure on Felika, Fezzik, and Dr. Bob." Three Jack, H3131, "Happy New Year, and all the best to you and yours. How about Kelly Bad Take On Indoor Football Bidlin?" Yes, that should be his name.
13:21
"Glad you're back in, on Sirius so I don't have to connect my phone to my car radio anymore. Have a great weekend, guys." Yes, this is a thing.
13:28
Uh, you know, we love our, our, our other, other ways you can connect to, uh, VSIN, but again, there's a certain part of the audience that the actual act of having to connect your phone to your car radio is a bridge too far.
13:39
So we're, we're thrilled for those folks that we're back on SiriusXM. 158, Jaime Leyva, "Upon further review, isn't Midlin or Not Midlin or, or No Midlin already Mr. Bidlin's nickname courtesy of Matt Brown?"
13:51
Uncle Bush, "On the same morning Gil goes on Sway In The Morning, he admits you couldn't pay him enough to go to the club. Gil not just a citizen, but a senior citizen [laughs] apparently." You're onto me.
14:01
Uh, Joseph Ray to that's a, uh, that's a good one, just like Jeff Parleh Parleh, all these, uh...
14:06
Yes, Jeff Parleh was always a great nickname for sure for producer number five and eight, the Grover Cleveland of producers. And, uh, okay, and there's more tweets. We'll get to all them.
14:14
But ladies and gentlemen, to my left, to your right, 'cause we don't want to delay it any further, 'cause he's got tons of, tons of football insights and bets to make.
14:21
He's the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest.
14:24
For those joining us on SiriusXM 158 for the first time, the Hilton Super Contest, it's now The Westgate, uh, was the granddaddy of all contests, handicapping football, NFL football handicapping contests here in Vegas.
14:36
It has existed for 30 years almost at this point, and Steve Fezzik is the only person to have won it back to back. He joins us now in studio. How you doing, man? Soon to be a pioneer probably in a couple years, right?
14:46
Will you also say like Bobby, like, "I don't want to be called a pioneer. Legend does, does fine for me," that kind of thing? Yeah, I saw, um, yeah, Derek was talking about it.
14:54
Oh, you know, s- i- it's great to have the old guys like Steve Fezzik and, you know, in, in a contest to- [laughs]... d- just hanging around, and now they're starting to say- You know-...
15:00
"How are you doing today, young man?" [laughs] Oh, I'm getting old. All right. There's, there's many things we gotta get to. The first of all is I, I love when you have this, uh, you, you will admit... Maybe you won't.
15:10
[laughs] But will you admit that you have a bit of a, uh, a craw in your... I don't know what the expression is, but this, this bothers you about the, the gambling hall of fames. And you texted.
15:19
You said, "Rufus Peabody," who was just on the show with us, "has made millions bets, more than anybody I know, not in the gambling hall of fame." This bothers you. Well, there's two of them.
15:28
The Spanky Hall of Fame is good. The other one is just like the administrator paper pusher hall of fame. Oh, that's right. That, that, that, it, it- Yeah... think about this. Rufus will get in the hall of fame, for sure.
15:36
If you had a, if you had a poker hall of fame, you know, would you put in, "Hey, let's put in all these poker room managers," right? [laughs] Because they're, they're critical to the success- Yeah... of poker.
15:46
P- Phil Ivy, you're gonna have to wait a little while. Mike Matassou, nope, nope, not quite. That's a great point. Not quite good enough body of work, but we'll get, we'll get all the poker room managers in there.
15:54
And that, that, that's really, you know, my problem. Like, a guy like Alan Boston that I've had a truculent relationship with, obviously Alan belongs in the Hall of Fame. What, what's the guy gotta do, you know?
16:03
Remember when Cosell called, uh, called Ali truculent, and Ali's response was, "I don't know what that means, but if it's good, I'm in"? [laughs] Something like that. Yeah. [laughs] Truculent. You're truculent.
16:14
Uh, okay, the other thing you want to say here, you said, "No one is talking." First of all, I object to that 'cause we were just talking about it earlier.
16:20
You said, "No one is talking about how the weather is going to, uh, affect these games." Well, wait, but I threw it out as a question earlier.
16:27
You say specifically how it's going to help Buffalo against Baltimore and especially Kansas City and Philly in their respective games. Um, okay. Yeah, I got the- What, what, what's your angle there? You know, it's funny.
16:40
I got like the Rob Pizzola group saying Fezzik's got Alzheimer's and he's like, like, the, like, he, he, he gets caught up on this stuff like weather and it really doesn't matter at all in our models.
16:50
Did you watch the Miami-Kansas City playoff game last year when Miami's shivering on the sideline?
16:55
Well, they, well, they would immediately probably respond, if I could just sort of guess what they would respond, "Well, that's Miami," they would say. Well, sure.
17:01
Well, last time I checked, doo, doo, doo, let me check the map. Houston- Yeah... a soft dome team in southern Texas, it's probably not advantageous for them to head- Right, but not, but not Baltimore... to Kansas City.
17:12
But not Baltimore. So I, now here's where the, maybe I'm a little crazy. Old guy, get off the lawn. Baltimore, it gets cold in the wintertime. You know it gets in the- Oh, yeah... it gets in the 20s. You know what?
17:21
In Buffalo it gets down to zero all the time, and it's gonna be frigid in Buffalo. I will argue that's an a- advantage for Buffalo. Not as much as b- facing Houston- Yeah... but certainly.
17:31
And obviously the beach kids in LA that, um, had to just fly to Arizona. Felika talked about this, and he wa- I think he was spot on. Really bad spot.
17:39
Have to go to Arizona, fly back on Tuesday, distractions from the fires. Now you gotta fly to Philly on Friday. Don't you and I have a dinner on this game? We do. Where we- Yeah... where, where, where we going?
17:49
We going Nobu? I love Nobu. [laughs] Like, people say I'm, like, so negative about stuff. Ev- Nobu does everything right at Caesars. Okay.
17:55
But I didn't mean to break your flow, but can I ask you a, a question that we never talk about? So it's supposed to snow. Mm. Right? A little bit.
18:01
I as- I assume the, the Eagles are wearing their home greens, right, whatever that shade of green is. I would assume so, yes. Pardon me, Philly fans. I'm not gonna- Love that Kelly green. All right.
18:09
K- is it a Kelly green? And the- Usually now, but- And the Rams will be bearing, will be wearing their white uniforms, right, in the snow. I always think about this at Boise State, by the way. Camouflage.
18:17
If, if this is what I'm talking about. Really? Uh, really. Like, we never talk about this, but, like, 'cause we don't talk about, like, stupid things like this usually, but is it stupid?
18:23
'Cause when Boise State plays at home, there are times where I feel like the quarterback... misses their receivers- See- 'Cause it camouflages their- Can't see the safeties... the blue, yeah.
18:33
Two biggest home field advantages, college football, camouflage Boise in blue, camouflages, flages Oregon in green. Okay. Absolutely. So, uh, so could it be a detriment to the Rams?
18:42
I'm just sort of throwing out every possible. Yeah. We've done a week on these games, I figured I'd throw this one out as well.
18:46
I- it's interesting, I've never heard a team from LA, like, to be- that would benefit from the snow. But it's, it like, but, but, uh, that's interesting, but I wasn't even aware the Rams were gonna wear their white.
18:55
But it would make complete sense. Anyone who saw Die Hard 2- Oh, that's true... not, I'm, I'm wrong... not, or, or it's the Eagles who are gonna wear their whites at home.
19:01
No, the Eagles- Oh, then the Eagles would have the edge... don't the Eagles wear their greens at home? Maybe I'm wrong. I'm, I'm, I'm not, I'm not up on it, but- Yeah...
19:06
like, anyone who saw Die Hard 2 knows that everyone's wearing white. Yeah. You know, in the snowstorm, you couldn't see the terrorists. Yeah.
19:11
Well, anyway, I just think, you know, for a we- a week we talk about these four games, you have to think about all the new angles- Well, well the key is-... that we can think of... if you can find one- Yeah...
19:18
angle, one, l- like, like the impact of the weather that no one else is pricing correctly, you can assume everything else is being priced correctly. Yeah.
19:25
Hey, I am on the Eagles minus six, I wanna emphasize, why are the Eagles not getting more love? I, I get it, they were lousy in September, both their wide receivers were injured.
19:33
I would argue these Eagles have been an absolute juggernaut. They haven't played a bad game since September. They played three bad, well, they played three suspect games.
19:43
They won by five or six against Jacksonville and Carolina, right? Mm-hmm. They won by, they were led by 12 against, late against Jacksonville.
19:49
And they lost to your Washington football team in a game that the Eagles had their quarterback knocked out in the first half. Mm-hmm.
19:57
And little bit of a miracle at the end game when, um, AJ Brown drops the pass, that would've sealed the game, and then- Devonta Smith, yes... and, uh, Devonta Smith. Thank you. Yeah. Mm-hmm.
20:05
And then they, um, and then obviously Jayden Daniels does what he does- Does what he does... and he matriculates down the field just in time. But flinko, duh, duh, duh, fell into Washington.
20:12
Washington lost the other game by eight. And look at what the Eagles have done. They won in Baltimore by five. Baltimore's the best team, regular season team in the NFL. They won in Cincinnati by 17.
20:22
Uh, they beat Pittsburgh by 14. I mean, they, they, they, like, their resume, they beat the, the Cowboys twice by 30, they beat, uh, the Giants by 28.
20:31
I mean, every, like, you stack it, this is like the '85 Chicago Bears since, you know, October 1st. Easy. Easy with the '85 Bears comparison. All right.
20:39
Um, '91 Eagles, uh, would may be a more apt comparison, were also a great, uh, defensive history. Also, uh, Rufus came on and, and Chris Felica just came on.
20:47
They had interesting comments to make about the, uh, the, the Detroit-Washington game. The high variance of fourth downs, Felica sort of m- um, doing that with a field goal under prop of 46 and a half yards.
21:00
You have another creative way to bet that same kind of narrative. Yes. Now, this is not widely available. Let's go to DraftKings, it's there right now. Punts under six and a half, minus 170. Go.
21:10
We are betting punts- [laughs] It's a go... under minus 170. Put it into your betting, um- This is not a drill... yes. Go. And, and hit submit. But think about this.
21:20
I mean, Rufus basically, and Felica, basically both of those guys came on before me. Yeah. I'm the great aggregator. No, I did text you a long, I've been saying this since early in the week.
21:29
Um, how are, how are we gonna get to seven punts? Detroit doesn't punt. They go for it on fourth and five from, from midfield. Washington doesn't punt. They- Tress Way is stealing a paycheck for Washington.
21:40
The, uh, [laughs] it's not who, who ca- I mean, yeah. He, the, he doesn't even have to sh- show up. Bold prediction, there will be one punt in this game. Wow.
21:48
And if there's gonna be one punt, it's gonna go under six and a half, yes. Under six and a half pu- punts, but again, the under six and a half punts, the under of 46 and a half yard field goal is the long.
21:59
And everything Rufus was saying about sprinkle some on the money line on the Commanders because of, if you, if you believe that Washington can cover, right? You have to have that conviction to begin with.
22:10
Let's start there. But if you have that conviction, you absolutely should sprinkle some on the money line because the high variance nature gives them that punter's chance. You don't even need that conviction.
22:18
Like, Rufus was just saying, "Hey, I cannot even like Washington plus nine and a half," and still- And still. Yeah...
22:23
and, and still, by the way, uh, uh, if you do have a free bet, these are perfect free bets using, you're teasing the other guys, the favorites. Protect it.
22:30
Protect those teasers with free bets plus 400 on the money line in the other direction, and you're probably gonna win one or the other because the teams hopefully won't win by one or two. Steve Fezzik, uh, in studio.
22:42
He's got teasers, speaking of that. We have teasers to get to in the divisional round, and props. That's on the other side. Numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:50
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23:30
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Gil Alexander, we get tweets of beating the book. Best listeners in the game. I will stand by this. Best listeners, absolutely.
23:41
This is from, uh, this is from Scott Weston, "I think Kelly's nickname should be Snakes since he fantasizes about them. Lol. Love the show. P.S. colonoscopy all good yesterday. Thanks for the apple juice tip."
23:53
Yes, if you're getting colonoscopy, go with the Mott's apple juice. Clear apple juice, it works. It replaces the other disgusting stuff. Uh, Kevin Ryan, "Kelly Smaller Belly Bidlin." Ooh, that's a good one.
24:05
Real Murphy Bruno, "Nickname, how about Kelly the Cuban Wayne Gretzky Bidlin?" [laughs] There's that. Uh, Tom F., "I think there can only be one nickname for Bidley, Stingray." So many choices.
24:15
Lance Shafer, "Hold the jelly Kelly, Kelly Middlin' Bidlin, No More Belly Kelly." Those are all great ones. Uh, Sly Bry, "The Eagles' primary color is midnight green, although, um, us lifers prefer the Kelly green."
24:27
Yeah, Kelly green was the old Reggie White era. Uh, now it is the, uh, the midnight green. Ke- uh, and this is from, uh, Jason, "Pick up Steve a pastry." Oh, he's talking to somebody else there, not just me.
24:37
I think he's talking to Kelly. Uh, he loves the scones, he said.
24:41
And then, uh, what is it, uh, Mark Geiger, in-house attorney for a Numbers Game at PriceHorse, "Your comparing producer five and eight to Grover Cleveland, POTUS when my grandfather was born in 1887 in New Hampshire, uh, is dated now.
24:52
I am certain that a large number of ANG listenings or, or listeners are celebrating January 20th for reasons other than MLK Day or Ohio State versus Notre Dame."
25:00
What he's referring to is that Donald Trump is now our second president, uh, alongside Grover Cleveland, that had one term separated by someone else's term before he had his second term.
25:10
We will still go with Grover Cleveland for, uh, Jeff Parlay because I don't know if Jeff...
25:15
You know, there's a lot of connotation with modern-day people, so if we keep it at Grover Cleveland, no one really knows any, no one has any, you know, sort of judgments.
25:23
So we'll keep it with, uh, we'll keep it with Grove Cleveland. Grover Cleveland's not on my bingo card. [laughs] I always call him Pro- Gru- Grover Cleveland, our producers.
25:28
[laughs] Brad Sports, "Boy, oh, boy, it was nice being able to listen to you in the car this morning, Gil. Take care." I am so glad, Brad.
25:34
I think you speak for a lot of people, uh, who have us now back at SiriusXM 158 all day long. And Shine the Professor says he's gonna take over one punt in the Lions commands, command Skins game for the farm.
25:47
Over one punt from Professor Shine. All right, one and a half, and we're gonna do dinner on it. [laughs] I got under one and a half. What about, well, can we interest you in one and a half, Shine? How about that?
25:56
Hey- Um-... help, help the judge find his wallet. Okay. Before we get back to your bets, 'cause you have teasers, you have props, you heard our discussion, me and Bill Krackenberger, about tipping.
26:05
You have an underrated person to tip. Absolutely. So room attendants. Think about this. You're just handing out fives and tens. You're tipping your blackjack dealers 25s like you're Rockefeller, all right? Yeah.
26:17
And then you stay in your room, and then your room attendant has to clean up and then think about, uh, the mess you left that room in the last time you were in Vegas. For all those days you spend there.
26:26
And, and you don't leave nothing? I mean, leave... Y- if you're there for three days, leave a 20. Better yet, the first night leave a 10, the last night leave a 10. Absolutely.
26:36
They are the hardest working, lowest paid people, and, you know, so often, um, you just forget about them because you, you, you, because you don't see them, and they're the ones that are working- Yes...
26:46
the hardest for you. That is 100% a good pro-tip. I agree with you wholeheartedly on that, and it is the most likely to be forgotten, right? 'Cause you often are like, "I gotta get to the airport," and you forget it.
26:57
So absolutely, that should be the person. What did you refer to? The room attendant, very nicely, uh, termed. In the movie- Yeah... in, in the book, I think- Yeah...
27:03
Super Casino, I think they, they mentioned, like, when the locks are opened, the maids do want to be called room attendants. Room attendants. And they, when someone give, treat with respect. No, that's right.
27:11
It's, I mean, it's a- Ma- It's, it's a very, very underrated, important part of your whole Vegas experience. Mail man, mail woman likes to be called mail carrier as well, says- Okay... certain thing as well.
27:21
I'd like to hear you call it mail carriers from this point forward. All right, teasers this week. What do you got?
27:25
So, you know, Rufus talked about the value on the money lines, and I don't disagree, but now think about this.
27:30
You can play, like, plus 400, plus 450 on these teams on teasers, uh, on, on money lines, but the teasers are the opposite of the money lines in a lot of ways, where you're teasing, and right now at DraftKings, Kansas City's minus eight and a half.
27:44
You've got a dynasty. You have a dynasty going on. You've got a quarterback, a team going for the third straight championship, playing a very middling, injured, average, soft dome team from the South. Wow.
27:59
[laughs] Of course you're gonna play Kansas City down from eight and a half to two and a half, and you've got some good options as well. You've got those Lions. They're minus eight and a half to minus nine.
28:08
Get, gotta get the Lions down to minus two and a half as well. If you wanna play Rufus's, you know, plus 440 on the money line also, I mean, they dovetail nicely.
28:16
It's like in, and Abrams just wrote this book, I don't have the title of it, that talks about, like, you love when you have two bets that are, like, hedged against each other. Dan Abrams. Dan Abrams. Yes.
28:24
And a, A-plus for the math. World-class math. Uh, basically he, sh- his title of his book should be Always Play Back. Gotta get him on the show. He's like, Always Play Back is the title of the book.
28:32
Basically, if you have, if you have a break-even bet in one direction and a huge bet in the other direction, you should actually bet the same, it's counterintuitive- Mm-hmm...
28:40
on both and just let your bankroll just matriculate. Go, go, go. Um, and we're gonna tease Buffalo from the plus one and a half, that's at DraftKings, up to the seven and a half. Do not tease to plus seven.
28:49
You need to get it up to plus seven and a half. And, and Buffalo looking for a dance partner specifically, or are you just saying general, general terms?
28:56
Uh, we're, we're gonna, we're, we're gonna, we're gonna shove with the Chiefs, and we'll put the- Shove with the Chiefs... we're, the, the, the Chiefs i- is, is going to be our key- [laughs]... in all our teasers.
29:02
These are all two team, six point, minus 120 teasers, and we're gonna do KC Detroit, KC Buffalo. Okay. What about some props, Mr. Smart Man? What do you got here? Let's go with the Brown. What can Brown do for you?
29:14
Let's go to two Browns. So, um, I'm very concerned. I'm, I'm very pro-Eagles, but I'm worried about A.J. Brown. I don't like
29:22
his interviews where he's been saying, "Well, my knee is what it is, but I've got good training people, and they'll get me out here," and he had one catch for 10 yards last week. So A.J.
29:30
Brown under- He's too busy reading, and he's got things to do. You know what? It's great to see someone multitasking- It is. It is... like that. So under 70 receiving yards, and we're gonna go Washington's receiver.
29:39
You know about him. Oh, Dyami Brown. Under the radar, Dyami Brown has quietly become the number two wide receiver for the Washington football team. He got, like, 87 last week.
29:50
He's averaged 46 the last five weeks, but he did nothing the first half of the year. Yeah. So the oddsmakers are setting his lines based upon year-to-date averages all wrong.
29:59
Dyami Brown is at, uh, I think FanDuel has this, over 33 and a half receiving yards. Yeah, so just to be clear, under on A.J. Brown, 70, over on Dyami Brown of the Skins, over 33 and a half.
30:08
And if you're driving and get confused, just assume both Browns will get 50 yards, and you'll be good. [laughs] There you go. I, and by the way, I don't know if it is, is Dyami Brown the number two?
30:16
Obviously, the incomparable Terry McLaurin is your number one. Is it Dyami Brown? Is it Olumide Zaccheaus? I don't know if they now have a defined number two. They're close. They're close. Yeah. Yeah. Mm-hmm.
30:24
All right, uh, Josh Allen, over eight and a half rush attempts in the Bills-Ravens game.
30:28
You know, everyone's been coming on all week, and I agree with it, that the models just don't price these quarterbacks, you know, willing to put their body on the line and run more.
30:37
And Josh Allen got 46 yards Last week, but he didn't run in the second half. He got one carry for four yards 'cause the game was in hand. This game isn't gonna be in hand. This is gonna be a dog fight. He's gonna...
30:48
There's gonna be so many plays where he's gonna tuck it and pick up, you know, five yards, seven yards. I- It's still their best play. I- it's unstoppable. Yeah.
30:55
I mean, the- but he and Mahomes, I mean, I, I couldn't argue with Mahomes over as well, yes. Okay.
31:00
And then college football Monday night, this is a creative way to bait- to, uh, bet, pardon me, the Ohio State, Notre Dame game, uh, an under, but specifically the first quarter under. Why?
31:11
Because when the Super Bowl plays, we always love playing that first quarter under and- Yeah... the, the start's slow. Well, this is the same thing, basically. It's the Super Bowl of college football.
31:22
They've gone through, like, a playoff format. Both teams are like... You know, Notre Dame has learned the way to win in advance is to let the other guys screw it up, right?
31:31
When they play Georgia, it's just don't turn the ball over, take care of the football, and be careful. And Ohio State is the much better team. They know if they don't mess it up, they're going to win the game.
31:41
So I expect, and Ohio State plays a lot slower than they have in prior years, uh, 0-0 at the end of the first quarter. We're gonna get a scoreless first quarter. We're gonna go under 10, minus 120.
31:50
Do not play under nine and a half. That 10 is so important. Uh, you just brought up a book recommendation from Dan Abrams.
31:56
By the way, you can follow Dan @drrazWSOP, meaning World Series of Poker, uh, drrazWSOP on Twitter.
32:03
Uh, Dan has a, a new book out that you love, and we have a, uh, we have a question on Twitter from Terry Elkins, "Does Fezz have books recommendations listed somewhere?"
32:15
Yes, but Logan Fields is, like, the, the, like, the greatest sports betting book ever. That's the 2020 one. The 2020 Winning at Sports Betting by Logan Fields. It's like How to Win at Sports for Dummies.
32:25
So if you read the Abrams book, you'll be like, if you go to MI- if you went to MIT or Stanford, and, like, you got an electrical engineering degree like he did, you're gonna love this book.
32:34
So you love that kind of thing. Yes. Yeah. But if you are, like, a blackjack dealer, or if you are a car salesman, you're not gonna like the Abrams book.
32:43
You're gonna go, "Why did he put all this math into the appendices?" I, I don't know Dan, but he's probably gonna object to this characterization. Not at all. Yeah. He'll, he'll, he'll agree. I was- He'll agree with you?
32:50
Oh, I... He even said, like, "I probably should have put a lot of that math," which is impeccable, by the way- Yeah... into the appendices. But Rufus Peabody will love- [laughs] Oh, he'll go crazy... the book.
33:00
Kalehu Feistel will, like- Oh, Kalehu Feistel... literally- Oh... while, while he's doing his business at the, on the commode, he'll be reading this over and over. [laughs] Kalehu's got his own books as well.
33:08
Say, yeah, but, but, but- Kalehu Feistel. Yeah. Yes. Um, and then, uh, so again, 2020 Sports Betting from- Logan Fields... Logan Fields is your, is always your big recommendation. At the, the greatest sports bet.
33:17
The Odds by Chad Millman is, is, is number two.
33:19
Documents, um, the Rams greatest, uh, show on turf, World Championship, Joe Lupo at the Stardust, who kicked me out years and years ago for a year, and the incomparable Alan Boston. The incomparable Alan Boston.
33:33
Steve, always a pleasure, man. Um, what a football season. We'll see you on Friday. Thank you, Gilly. Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports on Twitter. Dr.
33:41
Bob on the College Football National Championship next on The Numbers Game right here at VSAN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSAN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game.
33:57
We do our show live from Circa, a resort casino in downtown Las Vegas, the beautiful, uh, background, the world's largest sportsbook.
34:06
Uh, obviously for those listening on SiriusXM 158, you can't, uh, see that, but if you check it out on the VSAN app, you will know what I'm talking about. Uh, we got tweets at Beating The Book.
34:14
Clone Bone, "Kevin, Kelly Falconer Bidlin," because of Kelly's, uh, penchant for loving the, uh, falconer that's over at the Wynn.
34:21
Ryan Thompson, "Always leave a tip," talking about our tipping, uh, with the, uh, room attendant. He said, "Always leave a tip for the housekeeper, uh, housekeeping.
34:29
As a person that travels often, I leave $20 per day, but if there's too much, if, if that's too much, anything you can leave them helps, makes a big difference for the hardest working people in the hotel."
34:39
I could not agree more, Ryan. Uh, this is from Charles in Connecticut, @HoopHomer, uh, "Thumbs up on tipping room attendant. I tip as you suggest, but also the loose change I have accumulated.
34:49
Who wants loose change going through TSA? It adds up after a week in Vegas, as they are on the lower pay scale. It helps them too."
34:55
Uh, Mark Geiger, "You guys are right regarding tipping room attendants, but in my opinion, it should be done every day, because many of these folks, mostly female and paid minimum wage, only get two or three shifts a week, so chances are you have more than one in your room."
35:08
And finally, Kevin Ryan @RoadKingKR, "Gil Fez doesn't have to be on Twitter [laughs] to offend people.
35:13
As a retired car dealer of 50 years, I can tell you from monthly payments to converting money factors, my math is as good as anybody's."
35:20
Thank you, Kevin, speaking on behalf of, uh, car dealers everywhere, retired or current. You're absolutely right. Fez couldn't get out of here without offending someone. I apologize.
35:32
Uh, our G Bank Best Bets of the Day, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSAN, which we do every day on the show as a recap, and every other show here on VSAN, the sports betting network.
35:41
Uh, mine once again, tonight in tennis, on the ladies' side, Emma Navarro going up against Ons Jabeur. Emma Navarro, the American, -117 over there in, uh, Melbourne. Also on, uh, Beatriz Haddad Maia.
35:56
Uh, she is a, uh, an even money bet. She is minus, not an even money, she's -110. It's a coin flip, let me be clear. She's, uh, -110. She is, uh, -110 bet.
36:06
She is a Brazilian player who, uh, always makes the opponent grind out, and she is, uh, taking on Veronika Kudermetova.
36:13
So that's gonna be, could, could very well go three sets, 'cause apparently Haddad Maia doesn't like beating anybody in straight sets, but she's the play at -110.
36:20
And then Alex Michelsen, the American, at +150 going against, uh, Ka- Karen Khachanov. So Navarro and Haddad Maia on the ladies' side, Michelsen on the men's side. Football, I have remained the same all week.
36:32
I'm on the Rams +6 against the Eagles in the snow it looks like now, and I'm on the Ravens laying the point against the Bills. Both of those are on Sunday. Kelly Bidlin Blade, whatever you want to call him.
36:45
Chiefs, Lions, the square bear teaser of the week. He's got the Chiefs at minus two, the Lions at minus two and a half in a six-point teaser, and he's got the Chiefs paired with the Bills.
36:52
Got the Chiefs a little later in the week, or maybe earlier in the week, at minus two and a half. The Bills teased up through the three and the seven to seven and a half.
37:00
And by the way, um, what Steve was saying, for those who are new bettors who are listening here at SiriusXM for the first time, the most optimal teasers, teasing through the three and seven for dogs of one and a half to two and a half points, home or away, and teasing down on home favorites of between seven and a half and eight and a half down through the seven and the three.
37:20
Which is exactly what Steve Fezzik did. He's on the Chiefs-Lions teaser. Chiefs minus two and a half, Lions minus two and a half. Laying minus 120 for that. Always lay minus 120.
37:28
Don't lay more than that, if you can help it. Chiefs minus two and a half, Bills plus seven and a half is his other teaser. He is oppo me on the Rams.
37:36
He's taking the Eagles, laying the points, and he's got a Commanders-Lions under prop, under six and a half punts. He's laying minus 170. That's the one he shouted, "Go," for, uh, when he was talking about that.
37:47
He's also got multiple props. Josh Allen over eight and a half rush attempts in the Bills-Ravens game. A.J.
37:53
Brown under 70 receiving yards in the Eagles-Rams game, and D'Amie Brown over 33 and a half receiving yards for Washington in the Commanders-Lions game on Saturday.
38:03
And in the College Football National Championship between Ohio State and Notre Dame, he's got the first quarter under, first quarter under of 10 points. So a lot of volume for Stevie, uh, coming on the show here.
38:15
And then finally, Chris Fallica, Ohio State, he's laying the Jews. As much as he said, uh, Notre Dame has a puncher's chance, what, what's your bet? I'm still laying the points for the Ohio State, minus eight.
38:24
He too is on the Eagles, laying the points against the Rams.
38:27
He's got a prop in that game, Kenneth Gainwell over nine and a half rushing yards, and he is on the Commanders-Lions, this prop, under 46 and a half yards longest field goal.
38:37
Once again, the Commanders-Lions prop for Fallica under on the longest field goal, and the Fezzik, uh, under punts, all is consistent with, again, what Rufus said also, the high variance, the, the, the, uh, penchant for going for it on fourth downs by both coaches, both Dan Campbell and Dan Quinn respectively, and the fact that they are more willing to eschew both punts and field goal attempts.
39:01
I just wanted to work in the word eschew. Uh, GBank, the official bank of VSiN, responsible for all of our best bets every day.
39:07
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39:33
That's a mouthful. Leave some time, though, for Dr. Bob, a pioneer in this business.
39:37
Uh, he is one of the greats, one of the first people to ever use mathematical models and, uh, develop a model for predicting the outcome of sports events. He joins us now from outside of Denver, Colorado at DRBobSports.
39:48
On Twitter, drbobsports.com. That's drbobsports.com. Bob, how are you, sir? Very good, Jill. How are you? I'm doing very well.
39:56
Uh, before we, we close today, 'cause we won't get a chance to talk to you before the national championship on Monday night, uh, you are most famous, you, you handicap multiple sports, but you're still most famous for college football.
40:07
How do you see this game on Monday night?
40:11
Well, it's one of those games, like if you just did, you know, if you looked at every game and, and did some math, and mo- mostly any mathematical algorithm would, would probably think this line is a bit high.
40:22
If I, if I weighed every s- every game that each team played equally, you'd get Ohio State by five and a half or so.
40:29
But Ohio State has been relatively better against better teams, especially offensively, while Notre Dame has been relatively worse against better teams, particularly on offense.
40:40
So when you, when you take a look at that, I'm gonna break that down, uh, it comes out a little bit different than Ohio State by five and a half.
40:45
Now, for the season, the Buckeyes offense has been 1.8 yards per play better than an average offense when Will Howard's been in the game.
40:52
They average 7.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yards per play to an average F- F- uh, FBS team. However, they've obviously raised their level of play in the playoffs.
41:02
They averaged 7.6 yards per play in three playoff games against defensive units that would allow 4.5 yards per play to an average team. So they've been really good offensively.
41:11
Looking over the course of the season, they've played seven very good defensive teams, Oregon twice, Penn State, Indiana, Michigan, Tennessee, and Texas.
41:20
All of those teams are at least a yard per play better than average defensively.
41:23
And Ohio State has been 2.0 yards per play better than average relative to the defenses they faced in those seven games against elite defenses, which is.2, 0.2 yards per play better, better than, uh, their season rating.
41:38
That works out to about two points better relatively. So there's a couple points, uh, in favor of Ohio State if you look at how they've done against better defensive teams.
41:46
Now, Notre Dame's defense has been really good all year, 1.4 yards per play better than average. Um, but they're still without r- defensive tackle Riley Mills.
41:55
He still has three more sacks than any other player on the Notre Dame defense despite missing two games. They haven't missed him s- so much so far, but I do think that eventually they're gonna miss him.
42:05
He's worth, he's worth a little bit less than a point at this point. Um, so there's another little bit extra in favor of Ohio State. Now, this is interesting about the Notre Dame defense.
42:15
The best two offensive teams that Notre Dame faced were Louisville and USC. The Irish gave up an average of 496 total yards at 6.5 yards per play, 29 and a half point, 29.5 points per game against those two teams. Yeesh.
42:29
The, the offense that Ohio State most resembles is USC. They run a lot of the same concepts, and USC scored 35 points on 557 total yards against the Irish, 7.2 yards per play. They should've scored more than 35.
42:46
You might remember they had two passes intercepted at the goal line, both returned for touchdowns. Yeah.
42:51
So, uh, USC was the one team that dominated Notre Dame's defense, and, and Ohio State's offense most resembles USC's offense.
43:00
So I think, uh, Ohio State should be able to move the ball at a good rate and once again play better than normal against a, a, a good average, uh, I mean, against a good defense.
43:08
Whereas Notre Dame, they've struggled relatively against good defensive teams. Over the course of the season, they've been 0.9 yards per play better than an, an average offensively.
43:18
A very good running game, mediocre passing game, but they've played 10 games against better than average defensive teams, and in those 10 games they've been only 0.7 yards per play better than average, which is 0.2 yards per play less, which works out to about a point and a half to two points worse relatively against better defensive teams.
43:37
Now, obviously, Riley Leonard had a great game throwing the ball against Penn State, but just the game before that, he had, only had 79 yards on 25 pass plays against Georgia.
43:45
So he, uh, over the course of the season, he's really relatively struggled throwing against good teams, slightly worse than an average quarterback actually.
43:52
And they're without their left tackle, uh, Anthony Knapp, and they, i- i- he, it looked like a problem with the backup left tackle, uh, late in that game against, uh, against Penn State, and that could be an issue here.
44:03
He's worth about.1 yards per play, which is about half a point to a little bit more than that.
44:08
So overall, when you add it all up, I get Ohio State by 10 when you take into how each team's performed relatively against better teams. So- Okay... Ohio State by 10. Ohio State laying the points from Dr. Bob.
44:19
Bob, have a great weekend, NFL and college. All right. All right, thank you. The great Dr. Bob, @DRBobSports on Twitter. We've done all we can do. Money Moves is next right here on VSiN. It's SiriusXM channel 158.
44:31
Stormy Bonatony and Jeff Schwartz. Enjoy.
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