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Jan 1, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 1, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | January 1, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:34
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game, New Year's Day edition, right here at Circa. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, uh, thanks for joining us on this New Year's morning.
0:17
VSiN.com, VSiN app, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, however you're doing it, we appreciate it.
0:22
Coming up this hour, uh, Chris Velika, The Bear, here standing by to talk, uh, college football with us, and Adam Burke, the toughest booking of them all. That's right. Our VSiN managing editor coming up.
0:32
We're looking forward to talking to Adam. By the way, what was your favorite part of my interview with Tim Brando last segment? What was, what was your favorite part? What, what question do you think I nailed?
0:39
Uh, when you asked him what his favorite stadium food is. Yeah. Okay. I thought, I thought that went pretty well. Uh, [laughs] we get tweets that beat in the book. Greg Jones.
0:47
Oh, Greg was one of the four choppers at the end of Survivor last year. Oh, listen to this. He said, "When I was bartending in college, Eric Dickerson tipped me $5 on a $200 bill." What? Go Saquon.
1:00
Hope he gets the record by one yard. That's a great story. Wow. [laughs] And just awful. Oh, man. Wow. Geez. Uh, James Scott, "Happy New Year, Amer- uh, uh, a Numbers Game crew.
1:14
My betting resolutions: one, limit my grass court b- tennis betting. Two, try to in-game bet more. Three, like Kelly, look at player prop market more." Happy New Year to you, Jim.
1:23
I'm gonna try to limit my grass court betting, too. That's right. [laughs] You should really do it. You should really limit it. It's out of control, man. [laughs] Uh, Colin Murphy, "Happy New Year, Gil and Kelly.
1:30
This year I am not going to be afraid to continue to fade teams that are highly overrated in the market. For example, FSU and the University of Arizona in college football, sorry, Kelly, and the Titans in the NFL.
1:41
These teams aren't due. The market just never adjusts." Andy Christensen. [laughs] Andy, you cannot be serious about this question. He says, "Who do you like for Survivor in week 18?"
1:51
[laughs] Between the Colts, Texans, Bengals, and Rams. Uh, Andy, I don't mean any disrespect, but I'm long out of Survivor, and if you're still in it, my God, if you've gotten this far, please, I...
2:01
You don't need my advice. You, you do, you do you on this. I was impressed that, uh, you had asked JVT about, uh, the Circa millions.
2:07
I don't know about you, it's been a couple years since I've submitted picks past Christmas. No, no, no, he was... The reason I asked, 'cause he was in it after two weeks.
2:14
Last week I think he was, like, well in the, in the hunt. Oh, really? Yes. Okay. That's why I- I'll get it to JVT... it wasn't just randomly asking him. Yeah. Uh, Mariners Gate came back. He says, "Forget my resolutions.
2:23
I have Gil's resolutions. Tell us the name of that GD sushi place," he said.
2:27
[laughs] Uh, and- That's, my favorite part of that whole story still is that I went there and I cannot tell you the name of it And Colin Murphy says, "Also, Gil and Kelly, can we hear your Australian accent that you use for your brother-in-law?"
2:39
Is that you? Yeah. You might have to get a, a few, few drinks in me first, though. Yeah. [laughs] First we play in Brisbane, then we go to Adelaide. Adelaide. Then we go to Melbourne. Right?
2:50
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's The Bear at Fox Sports. He used to be The Bear at ESPN. Now he's The Bear at Fox Sports.
2:55
He is the host of The Bear Bets podcast, both football, uh, pro and college, and of course, he, uh, is on big noon Saturdays talking football with us.
3:05
It's Chris Velika, everybody, kind enough to join us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line on this New Year's Day 2025. Happy New Year, sir. Hap- hap- happy New Year. Same to, uh, you and, you and Kelly.
3:16
Boy, I was gonna say, you must be sliding Adam Burke an extra 50 or a C-note every time you get him on the show for the, for the amount of times that he volunteers to come on your show.
3:25
You must have a little, uh, little side deal going with him. Well, you know, you know, we, w- Brando, Brando's interview went so well. He was like, "I'll come on for free." That's what he said.
3:32
That, that is the upset of the year. The, the, the, the very young- [laughs]... 2025.
3:37
And no, no one, no one likes talking college football, uh, as much as Timmy B, so yeah, some- something must have been going on at the chateau where he was unable to get out of, get out of the rack this morning. Yeah.
3:47
Maybe he had a good night last night. Who knows? He might have. Um, let me ask you about last night's game first. Well, before we even get to last night's game, uh, Alabama complete no-show yesterday against Michigan.
3:58
Three turnovers. It was a, what is it? Turnover on downs, then a f- uh, what, two fumbles and an interception. Michigan goes up 60 to nothing. Alabama can never quite get back in it.
4:08
Then, uh, South Carolina, based on how they've been playing, kinda disappointing against Illinois, at least I thought. Um, and then there was the whole Beilema...
4:17
By the way, where do you stand on that, on that whole Beamer, uh, Beilema thing yesterday? I did not watch but, like, a few plays of that game.
4:26
I was dialed into the Sun Bowl, 'cause I had, I had UDub plus two and a half, uh, as one of my early plays, and then I was- Never in doubt. Never in doubt... oh, and then it, it...
4:36
I, look, I, I am the first one to, like, joke about, like, CLV and, like, um, "Oh yeah, the, the four-point CLV.
4:43
Look at how that goes," and I think for the first time in my life it actually, uh, played out in my favor where the fact that I did get the best of the number on UDub, uh, wound up working out.
4:51
But yeah, that, that, that... They were, they were dead in the water and then somehow, uh, worked their way back in the game. So yeah, I, I did not see really much of the, uh, I guess that... What was that?
5:01
The Cheez-It Bowl that they were playing in? So I, I, I can't comment on that. But the, uh, but the Alabama game, did that...
5:07
That, I don't wanna say surprised me, but at, at the same time, yeah, of course everybody now jumping to conclusions just, "Oh, see..."
5:15
I- it- it's, it's like you always say, like, the, it- it's the results-based handicapping. "Oh, see, they lost. They looked terrible."
5:21
But, uh, yeah, I think the, the bigger issue for Alabama now moving forward is, uh, under Nick Saban, like the most impressive thing that they did was never losing to unranked teams.
5:32
Like, they won, like, 100 straight games against unranked opponents, and now this year they lost to three. So like, like, th- that's getting back to, like, being able to play week in, week out.
5:42
We'll see if they can do that, because, uh, it's a, I- I take a, a, an ominous sign I think for the long-term, for the future, immediate future rather, of the Alabama football program where, uh...
5:52
Co- remember a couple years ago Nick Saban was talking about how TCU had got in the playoff and, and they probably should have, and hey, we, we'd be favored by whatever, and you look at who we beat.
6:02
And, and they went out and they absolutely annihilated Kansas State Could have done, could have done the same thing yesterday. And, and they came out and, and, and laid an absolute egg.
6:10
So, uh, yeah, g- cr- dude, credit to Michigan, by the way.
6:13
And Matt Youmans and Dave Ross even pointed this out, because I had tweeted yesterday about how, uh, how many teams have gone out and beaten USC, Alabama, and Michigan in the same season... And, uh, [smacks lips]
6:24
uh, Al- and Ohio State in the same season. And, uh, and, and, and Matt replied back like, "And didn't even go over their season win total." So w- what a, what a turnaround for Michigan.
6:32
And they're gonna be a, uh, a force again next year with Bryce Underwood coming in. I, I didn't intend to ask this question, but now with, with Milroe yesterday, this comes into my, my mind.
6:42
Um, in whatever order, Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward expected to be at the top of this coming year's NFL draft.
6:49
Um, I guess Jalen Milroe, who by the way has not announced officially yet that he's entering the NFL draft, but I guess maybe he's the third-best prospect. Obviously- Is he? [laughs] Is he? That's what I mean.
7:00
I don't know. Is, is Dart the third-best prospect? [coughs] Is, is... You know, that's the question. My question to you is, who is the third best?
7:08
And more than that, are we sure that Shedeur and Cam Ward are actually that good? No, we're not. We- we- we're, we're sure that they're g- really good college players.
7:23
And, and, and I kind of went on my podcast and kind of vented about everybody, uh, with the bows and arrows and bullets at Cam Ward. But, uh, you know, I, I get it.
7:32
It's gonna be a thing that we're gonna be talking leading up to the draft about these teams need a quarterback, and they're gonna over-draft on a quarterback.
7:38
And look, if you're the Giants or the Raiders or, or, or the Titans, like, you need a quarterback.
7:44
But, like, the fact that the, the Titans took Will Levis where they did and now he's terrible, at least they didn't waste a first-round pick on him.
7:50
But I still think Shedeur probably will be, uh, the first quarterback off the board, Cam Ward the second. Honestly, I have no idea what I, what I would do with, with the third.
8:02
I, I couldn't even consider taking Jalen Milroe or Jaxson Dart in the first round, for sure. It's a t- that... I, I'm starting to wonder, right? Like you...
8:10
'Cause just 'cause the quarterbacks are there, and we know how these teams get on drafting day. [clears throat] They, they understandably, they justifiably go quarterback crazy- Yep...
8:18
'cause you're nothing in the NFL without a good one.
8:21
But you do wonder, like a- as you just think about Shedeur Sanders and you think about Cam Ward and then whatever else is after that, however you, you evaluate those guys, if in fact just 'cause they're there makes it a good thing.
8:34
And then- Right... the, the sort of other thing is, you know, I'm sitting here laughing at Antonio Pierce and the Raiders for winning these games and they fall to eight.
8:41
Maybe that ends up being in some perverse way a blessing in disguise, right? Yeah, absolutely.
8:47
I mean, because I mean, if you re- if you like what you see in the pre-camp wor- in the pre-draft workouts or your interviews, you can potentially trade up.
8:54
But there's a chance at eight maybe you get a Mikael Williams from Georgia, maybe you get Abdul Carter, um, may- maybe you get a- another impact, uh, defense- defensive player.
9:03
Like, there, there are other guys out there that, that can clearly make an impact, and we've talked about this as well, like, uh, taking the impact starter at receiver or, uh, tackle or def- or cornerback or whatever, and then taking the quarterback l- later in the draft and that probably being the, the better EV play.
9:20
So, uh- Right. Right... yeah, maybe in, in the long term I'll be sitting here that the Jets are, uh, picking seventh, and I'll be happy about it. Current, uh, first overall odds at FanDuel.
9:28
[clears throat] Shedeur Sanders minus 110, Cam Ward down to plus 165, and then Travis Hunter plus 360. And if it's the Patriots, maybe Travis Hunter's a great bet at plus 360 then, right? Yeah.
9:40
If the Patriots lose, they've got the number one pick, and if they keep it, they're not drafting a quarterback. If they keep it, yeah. If they keep it, right. That's a big thing.
9:47
But why wouldn't they draft Travis Hunter? No, you're right. I, you're right. Yeah. I hadn't really thought about it like that before. Uh, so you brought up- And- Oh, go ahead, Chris. I'm sorry.
9:53
No, I was gonna say, and, and that, and that's a team that's been, uh, de- void of a, a wide receiver threat for a big play threat for a, a long, long time, so that would be a, uh, a welcome addition to New England.
10:04
Absolutely. Oh, is, is that where we're going, by the way? We definitely going wide receiver with him in the NFL? And- I think so. Okay. I think so. 'Cause there's more money? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
10:13
Th- that's the, uh, that, that...
10:14
And in talking with, uh, I had this conversation with, with, with Mark Ingram and Brady Quinn and, and Liner and, and, and those guys and, and NFL-wise, and they think that now the way the NFL contracts are going with wide receivers, that he can get a, uh, the, the wide receiver money will be more than a cornerback money.
10:30
Real quick, we have 60 seconds left. You're coming back. We'll talk about the three games today- Mm-hmm... here after the break. Um, the same questions that I talked about earlier today. [clears throat] Excuse me.
10:38
Is this the end of the line for Penn State, in your opinion, and what was the right side? Was there a right side yesterday? You can make a case for both, can't you? You could make a ri- a, a case for right side.
10:48
I, in the question that I posed to you and Fez and Willie and Todd in the, in the chat last night, I posed on Twitter, and I said, "Yeah, yes."
10:55
And then, of course, that turned into, "Well, you, you just hate Penn State." Of course. [laughs] "You can't be really fair." Of course. And, and, and then- Yes... of course, you have someone with a brain- [laughs]...
11:03
a logical mind like Cleave TA come in and say, "Yeah, I think Boise probably was the right side. Yards per play were the same. They had 13 points taken off the board." Someone who actually like think it through. Right.
11:13
So again, you can make a case for both sides, but yeah, I, I will be, uh, very interested to see what the opening number is with Penn State and the winner of Georgia-Notre Dame tonight because, yeah, I can't,
11:25
I can't see Penn State w- if they play the way they did yesterday and the way they did against SMU offensively, uh, beating Notre Dame or Georgia.
11:33
I know this, I know the Georgia coaching staff and, and some other coaches out there watch both teams' films, and they think Notre Dame is much better than Penn State. All right.
11:41
Falica joins us for another segment, uh, beginning with, of course, the game that starts in less than two hours. Three quarterfinals coming up right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN.
11:50
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12:05
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12:29
Back on A Numbers Game, live from Circa, Gil Alexander, Kelly Billand, happy New Year to you. Chris Fallica, The Bear, from Fox Sports, kind enough to join us for a second segment courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
12:39
Uh, Chris, did you bet on that Peyton Stearns match with me last night? Of course I did. How fun was that? Ugh. How, how was it? How great was it?
12:46
She finally, she gets the break to go back up 4-3 in the second and then immediately gets broken at love. I mean, that, that was fun, wasn't it? Absolutely brutal.
12:53
A 30-minute game with s- I'll say it again, with 16 deuces and nine break points. It was just the most amazing- You know it's a new year when I hear tennis names I gotta Google- Oh my God...
13:04
'cause I'm like, "I don't know this one." Peyton Stearns is- Well, h- here's one. I know Kelly, you wouldn't have to Google, uh, Paula Badosa, I know that. But the other night she, uh,
13:12
she, she, uh, w- was, uh, down a, a couple of... down a break in the, uh, in the third set against... or two breaks I think actually against, uh, Elena Vesnina. And, like, it was one of those where, you know what?
13:25
E- Elena Vesnina, I remember her, she's blown some big third set leads before. So I'm like, "Yeah, let me hop in on, uh, on Badosa here at, like, plus 172 or something like that."
13:35
And, uh, she, she immediate- she immediately gets, uh, she holds her serve- [laughs]...
13:39
and she's, can get back, she can get a, get a break and get back on serve and, uh, has a couple of break points, blows it, and then, uh, immediately melts down on her serve as well.
13:48
So that, that, that never happens to Paula Badosa. Welcome back, tennis, is what he's trying to say. Yeah. [laughs] Good times. All right, let's do these one by one today.
13:56
Uh, let's do them chronologically, starting with Texas and Arizona State, the Peach Bowl, uh, in Atlanta. A quarterfinal game where the Longhorns are now 13-point favorites. We're showing 13 and a half. Yeah.
14:08
This is tick, uh, trickling up and up. Total at 52. Can Arizona State cover the number here? I don't know.
14:18
I don't like the side where it feels a lot like the Clemson game as well that I really didn't have a great opinion on. The one bet, the two bets I have in pocket here I should say two.
14:27
Uh, I did play, uh, uh, Wisner over his rushing total again. Uh, I think they feel pretty confident about their ability to run the ball. And I played over 27 and a half points in the first half.
14:40
I, I just think Kenny Dillingham is one of those coaches who is everything that he has in his bag of tricks, fake punts, going for it on fourth down, e- what trick plays, anything he has, he's gonna break it out early, uh, i- in an attempt to put some points on the board.
14:56
And if it goes well, they will. If it doesn't, they're gonna wind up giving Texas pretty good field position.
15:01
So, uh, I, I think we're gonna see some points here in the first half, so I played over 27 and a half, uh, in the first half.
15:06
By the way, speaking of the conversation we just had last segment, where does Quinn Ewers rank in your, [laughs] in your quarterback- Ha... rankings in, in a draft? Way down, right? Yeah, yeah.
15:16
Yeah, day two, probably late third round I would think.
15:19
There, there are some questions out there too, like supposedly there are rumors floating out there that, that teams are, uh, really gonna ante up now for, uh, for him to stay one more year in college with, like, some ridiculous NIL money.
15:32
And you know what? If you're Quinn Ewers and- Yeah, maybe you do... and I'm just throwing Miami out there as an example. Like, like, but Cam Ward was not a first round pick or a top 10 pick before he went to Miami.
15:41
He put up great numbers and, like, maybe that's something a team like Miami or, or even Florida State, although I think Florida State did, did grab someone.
15:48
But like, "Hey, Quinn, come make more money than you're gonna ever make on your rookie deal in the NFL.
15:54
Play a year and maybe you have the same type of success that, that Cam did or whoever else, uh, worked their way up." So, uh, he might not be done in college yet. Yeah. Jayden Daniels.
16:02
I mean, yeah, I, I think why wouldn't you- Yeah... if you're him? 'Cause I mean, his stock's only gone down this year, right? Right.
16:07
Weren't we ta- we were talking about him as possibly the first quarterback off the board. I got, I have, I have 20 to 1 Heisman tickets on him.
16:13
That's what, I mean, I worry about laying the points with Texas, which I, I did. I, the, my big concern is can I trust Quinn Ewers in this game? It's s- it's such a new world with it, obvious- Yeah...
16:21
a whole new world with, uh, what you were just describing. So many more options of these players. Uh, and that was juxtaposed against, uh, Jaxson Dart who [laughs] announced that he was available for the- [laughs]...
16:31
that he's gonna go to the draft. I'm like, "Bro, you don't have to announce it." [laughs] "You can just go." Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Um, Ohio State, Oregon. Let's get to the good ones with actually short spreads here. Yeah.
16:41
Ohio State, Oregon. Yeah, I- Where Stormy is on the sideline for this again. I know she is. Yeah. I think she's on the Ohio State sideline, I think. I think I heard- Oh, okay...
16:49
her tell Jeff the other day on, on, on the show. I grabbed Oregon plus two and a half here. Nice.
16:56
And I think the, the, the biggest reason why, and again, sometimes maybe I read too much into the emotional side of things, it's going to be very hard for Ohio State to play pissed off and angry against the world like they did on their home field against Tennessee a couple of weeks ago.
17:12
Uh, that, that, that was a game purely driven on emotion and being pissed off that everybody said they sucked, that they lost to Michigan again a- and they didn't know how they were gonna respond, and they did and they kicked the crap out of Tennessee.
17:23
I just worry about in this environment now where people are kinda like, "Oh, O- okay, Ohio State really is that good.
17:29
Now, and yeah, they're favored again just like they were, uh, at odds in a couple of weeks b- a couple, uh, months ago." Oregon is gonna have Burch back on defense.
17:37
Oregon didn't necessarily play a great game in that first game either. And, and look, Ohio S- it was, it was a coin flip game. I think if these teams played 10 times, they probably both win five each.
17:48
But I, I just, I think the emotional edge in this game, and certainly the rest advantage in this game, uh, allows Oregon to heal up.
17:56
The last time we saw Oregon's defense they weren't great, so, uh- We'll see if they can improve, but, uh, I, I think Oregon ge- getting the points here i- is the way I ultimately I did it.
18:05
I will say, uh, full disclosure, part of that is me holding some Ohio State futures- Hmm... that, uh, if Oregon wins, I can kind of, okay, wash, wash my hands with.
18:16
And if they move forward, I'm still holding those futures. But, but I do think, um, th- the signs point to Oregon potentially being on the right side. Do you believe that this is the de facto national championship?
18:25
Do you believe the winner of this game wins it all? Uh, yes, I do. Yeah. I, I think a lot of people feel that way. Should the committee have done the seeding differently- Oh, absolutely... knowing that they should have?
18:38
Yeah. Oh, th- th- th- th- the, the seeding was completely screwed up. Like, Ohio State should've been the five seed. Uh, Pen- uh, and, uh, Texas should've been moved down.
18:47
Like, y- y- well, le- let's talk about the Big Ten. We, we, we can, we can hash this out at any time. [laughs] Okay. No. Well, you know, no, no... you know what I'm gonna do? I'm gonna call Tim Brando.
18:55
[laughs] And I'm gonna have the conversation with him. The fact that, the fact that you've had... Now, now I'm wound up again, so now I have to let it out. Sorry. Apologize.
19:01
The fact that you have the two teams that lost the conference title games, Texas and Penn State, that had easier roads to the semis than Oregon and Georgia, the teams that won the conference titles, uh, i- i- is ridiculous.
19:15
How they saw their rankings and slotted them into what a projected bracket might look like and said, "Yeah, nailed it. This is perfect. This is exactly what we needed," is beyond me. Interesting. Uh, interesting.
19:28
And also interesting that someone like you is not on a committee like that, nor do you have a Heisman vote. [laughs] I just wanna... But I'm in just it's- Yeah... I'm not trying to rile you up.
19:35
It just, it's amazing to me. No, no, no, I, I, I appreciate that. Yeah. And, and again, sometimes I think that maybe I, like, care too much and put too much thought into it.
19:43
Uh, a- and just my thought process might not be right. But I, I, I don't know. I, I'll, and that's what I said about the, when I talked about the teams getting in and the seeding.
19:52
I'm like, "Look, I just want the best possible method to get the best possible teams in, whomever they are." If they get Deion and SMU are the two best team, but, while, uh, teams to get in, fine.
20:01
Think Ole Miss and whomever, fine. I, I just wanna make sure we're doing everything we can to get it right. All right. One more game. Yep. Obviously, the Superdome in New Orleans. Notre Dame and Georgia.
20:12
I'm looking offshore here. I'm seeing Georgia as a one-point favorite. Um, DraftKings had Notre Dame as a one-point favorite. Yeah. I'm looking to see if it still is that case.
20:22
He- I, I see, I see, yeah, and I see a lot of picks too. A lot of pick 'em out there. What are your thoughts? I am a little con- look, I just can't get over, like, the fact that this game is where it is line wise.
20:35
Like, you just think back to all the game, and I have to lo- was gonna look this up, uh, a little this afternoon.
20:40
Like, the, the spreads for Notre Dame in these big top five type games, BCS, college football playoff type games.
20:46
Like, this is the most respect Notre Dame has gotten in a game like this, uh, that, that I can remember for a team that hasn't won a game like this in a hell of a long time.
20:56
And which led me to believe, like, Notre Dame might be the right side here.
20:59
And I talked to a couple of people who, who I really trust that I talk to throughout the year, someone who is familiar with the Georgia program, who's I've seen them practice and been out there.
21:07
And, and I said to him, like, "Wow, Notre Dame's getting a lot of, lot of support." And he's like, "Really?" He goes, "Let me tell you," he goes, "I g- I've been to practice s- for the last two years, watching.
21:19
I've seen Gunner Stockton throw against our ones on defense. He can play." So, like, he's like, "Don't let that," he's like, he, he's like, "He's gonna be, he's gonna be fine."
21:28
So, like, he, that he feels pretty good that Stockton's gonna be able to play. Uh, and talked to another person who, uh, is fa- covers the sport and watches both games, former player.
21:39
And I said the same thing, posed him the same question about, "Is Notre Dame the right side here?"
21:42
And he's like, "I'm surprised you would think that because aren't they kind of the same team right now with, with Stockton and a running quarterback and, and great running backs?
21:51
And doesn't Georgia just have better players?" So, like, he kind of just reduced it to that. Hmm. So that ultimately led me to land on Georgia.
21:59
And, uh, the other interesting thing was how the Georgia players have come out and basically said, uh, "Gunner Stockton's one of us. He's not into these materialistic things."
22:10
And it really makes you wonder if this is gonna be like another... Remember how it was like, "How can you play Jake Fromm when you got JT Daniels?" Hmm. "How can you play Stetson Bennett when you have Justin Fields?"
22:21
Like- Stetson Bennett, yeah... it feels a little bit like this. Like, the Georgia locker room might finally have their guy. So we'll see if he can go out and play tonight, uh, like I think they expect him to. All right.
22:31
Let's go, Dogs. I did, I did, I did like Georgia. Last thing. Let's go, Dogs. Uh, five seconds. Uh, yes or no, will Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss score a million points tomorrow? Yes. Yes, that's what I thought.
22:39
More than a million. More than a million. They have a chance, Brentford double chance versus Arsenal. Brentford's gotten the result in eight of their nine home games this year.
22:46
Plus 160 and home against Arsenal on the double chance. Thank you, sir. You're welcome. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ready to try something different?
22:56
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23:05
That's the number one, S-D, bet.com. Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today. It's Gil Alexander.
23:17
It is Kelly Bitlan live here from Circle on a New Year's morning. College football abounds. Before we get to, uh, Adam Burke, Falica on the way out. Mm-hmm.
23:25
He had a, uh, Columbo bet where right before he left the room, he was like, "Uh, one more thing." Southampton and Sunderland under two and a half for Premier League action today. Wait, but there was another one.
23:37
Wasn't there a double chance? The other, Brentford double chance, plus 160. Thank, thank you. That game starts in, in one hour. Brentford double chance, plus 160. That game starts in one hour. Okay.
23:47
So if you want, uh, some action besides college football, there you go. Chris Falica firing away Hey, I got respect.
23:53
I, I al- I always think of him and Dalen Cuff, where they are, like, the college football and college basketball guys, and I know secretly at home they are just- Oh...
24:02
they love betting their soccer so much Falica has been on this show, we actually counted once, we have talked 11 different sports with Falica on this show. Mm-hmm, makes sense.
24:11
And I said to him, I, "If you could only, if you only had one, you were only allowed one and you had to get rid of the other 10," and his answer is, "I would take horse," horse racing for him. Oh, wow. Okay. Yeah.
24:21
Yeah, he's- So none of the above... into his horses too. Yeah, none of the above. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, Adam Burke, known to bet multiple sports as well. He is part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
24:30
He's VSiN managing editor. You can see all of his stuff at vsin.com. He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Happy New Year, Adam. Good morning, sir. Happy New Year, gentlemen. Good to be with you.
24:40
Good to, good to have you, man. You're, you're a, I was saying earlier on the show, you're a tough guy to get on the show because you're very busy, but I'd have you on every week if you were able to, man.
24:48
We, we appreciate you. Hey, let's set it up. Let's set it up. We can do it. "We can do it," he said. Let's do it. He said we can do it. Oh, he just said it.
24:54
Po- We'll- Post Super Bowl When at Rome, you should say bracket... Adam Burke. Get that in there. Monday mornings. [laughs] Um, okay. Mark it second ad. Adam, uh, let's start with college football games today.
25:03
What do you like best? Yeah, I mean, I, to be honest with you, I don't know if I really like any of these games all that much. I mean, you know, look, it is late in the year.
25:13
These lines are very tight, obviously very scrutinized, big handles on these games. Sports books know exactly where they need to be.
25:19
I think it's kinda tricky to, to really bet into a lot of these, you know, college football games here that we've seen throughout the bowl season, just with all the news, all the things moving around.
25:26
But in these games specifically, I mean, like I said, they're so scrutinized that you're not going to find a great edge.
25:32
Uh, I will say this, you know, we've got late Texas money coming in once again, and this is kind of what we saw- Oh, yeah... in the game against Clemson as well. I was on Clemson.
25:40
I was dead wrong in that game, as everybody else who was on Clemson was. This is the game where it kinda feels like it's setting up the same way, right?
25:48
Clemson's run defense was not good enough to stop Texas's run offense. My whole handicap on the game was, "Hey, I don't trust Quinn Ewers. I don't trust Quinn Ewers to put the ball where he needs to.
25:57
He's gonna have a turnover. He's gonna put the ball at risk." He did have an interception, did have a pretty weak stat line, and Texas just ran it down Clemson's throat for over six yards of carry on 48 attempts.
26:08
I could see Texas doing the exact same thing to Arizona State here, where Arizona State, they were lucky to be up 21-nothing against Kansas State because they still gave up over six yards per carry in that game.
26:18
Against better run offenses like UCF and Kansas, the primary running back in both of those games went over the 100-yard mark.
26:24
So I don't know that Arizona State holds up here, uh, defensively in terms of stopping the run. So I'm kinda getting to the point where I think Texas minus 13 and a half is actually the side to play in that game. Hm.
26:36
I'm with you on Quinn Ewers, though. That's for sure. F- f- found the last 13. It almost got away from us, Gil. [laughs] We're out to 14 already at the South Point. We were talking about it earlier in the show.
26:44
It was you. I, I bet the 13 earlier, but you were holding out for a 12 and a half. Oh, oh, I was, no, I was holding out to hear f- from Falica and Adam Burke. Oh, okay.
26:50
And now I've got some confirmation, I'm getting in right now. Kelly Bilot, everybody. Uh, okay. Uh, at vsin.com, a quick glance, and again, I said, uh, about Adam, he writes about all kinds of different things.
26:59
By the way, that's your, that's your college football play of the day, would you say? We can move on to other sports? Or is there- Yeah, I mean, I would say so.
27:05
Look, I, uh, nobody knows what we're gonna get out of Georgia with Gunner Stockton, you know?
27:09
So I mean, that, to me, that's just kind of a coin flippy type of game, a toss-up where I, I just don't have enough information, enough data points on Stockton to really know what Georgia's gonna do.
27:18
And the Ohio State-Oregon game, I mean, we saw the absolute best version of Ohio State against Tennessee. Is, is that repeatable for this team, or are they going to have a similar style of play calling?
27:29
Has Ryan Day learned his lesson? Does he no longer have, you know, Jim Harbaugh rent-free in his head 'cause that game's over with?
27:36
But at the same time, Will Howard's had a back-breaking interception in two of their bigger games this season, and so I don't know that he can avoid that here, where I expect Dillon Gabriel probably will.
27:47
So, you know, I think Ohio State deserves to be favored. They would've been favored in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Championship game had those two teams come together.
27:55
I understand why the sharper side here is Ohio State, number one in the country in EPA per play on both offense and defense, but Oregon and that Will Stein offense really scare me, and Howard scares me a little bit too.
28:07
So I think that's a, you know, last possession type of game or a game decided by a turnover, and then not knowing what you're gonna get out of Stockton, I think those are two tricky games to bet on.
28:17
I, I definitely think the Ohio State-Oregon game is tricky, and I think you're right about the Will Howard sentiment, which is if you just showed up for college football last week and you just saw Will Howard play that one game, you're probably like, "Oh, he's the greatest quarterback," you know, "in college football."
28:29
Uh, probably the best game of his career, one, one might, one might say. Uh, w- just Adam, wanted to ask you about Ohio State-Oregon line movement, 'cause we, we did think Texas was gonna take money this morning.
28:40
Do you think we see a three at any point on this game before kickoff? You know, I, I think it's possible just because people remember what they've most recently seen, right?
28:51
Ohio State 21-nothing in the first quarter against Tennessee. That game was never in doubt. Will Howard looked great, as Gil just mentioned.
28:58
You know, Jeremiah Smith, they used him again, somebody who's a mismatch nightmare on the outside.
29:02
And the last data point we have for Oregon, they gave up 8.7 yards per carry to Penn State, so you know, Penn State team that frankly didn't look all that good last night.
29:11
So I do think there's a chance that maybe we see a rogue three show up out there. If we do, I'd be shocked if it's up there for very long. Okay. All right, let's do a little rapid fire here.
29:23
Three, uh, three sports here out, the, the third of which will, will give you a shudder down your spine here, Adam. I'm warning you.
29:29
Uh, but college basketball, you wrote a piece today at vsin.com, as you are want to do, about college basketball. You don't have to give away the whole article, but give us one play in college basketball today.
29:38
I'll give away the whole article 'cause there is only one play. Oh, okay. [laughs] There's not a whole lot of games here today. Um- Give it away...
29:43
and, and look, specifically, you know, because I get, you know, a start here on Pacific time, I don't like to play early games.
29:49
I like to give people as much lead time as possible with that article, so it really cut the card down today. I think it left me with maybe seven or eight games to choose from.
29:57
Um, I like Chattanooga minus four against Mercer. Uh, this is a mocks team that they're much better from three than they've shown here so far this season.
30:04
A couple of their better players, Honor Huff and Trey Bonham, they're shooting well below their career averages from three. This is a team that takes a three about 50% of the time.
30:13
So if they're not shooting well, their shooting percentage is gonna be down from three. Long layoff for both of these teams here with the holiday break, but I think Chattanooga is a positive regression team in the SoCon.
30:24
I do think they start shooting better from three. They've already been very efficient on two-point shots.
30:29
Mercer plays at a very high tempo, so this should be a game where Chattanooga gets possessions to get those shots, get those opportunities to put up points. So I like Chattanooga minus four here.
30:39
This was two and a half overnight, uh, so not exactly getting the best of it, but I, I think the mocks roll in this game. See a lot of threes out there right now. All right.
30:48
That is at, uh, 3:00 Eastern, 12:00 noon Pacific. Let's go to the NFL. The squirreliness that is Week 18, Adam. I usually ask, uh, what do you like, as most do.
30:56
In this case, with Week 18, I will ask you, what do you think you like in Week 18? Yeah, a lot of moving parts to be sure.
31:03
Look, I, I think one thing that I like is, you know, live betting, first-half betting, stuff like that, is a really good way to approach this week.
31:09
You know, look, as much as these coaches want to shield these players from what's going on in other games, they're not going to be able to, right? They're gonna ask the fans, they're gonna have it...
31:18
Somebody's gonna be in their ear letting them know what's going on.
31:21
So you may find some really good live betting opportunities here for this week with teams that, you know, have playoff scenarios, but things aren't going their way in the games that are out of their control.
31:30
So, you know, maybe you get some good live betting opportunities there.
31:33
Um, also, you know, it's still pretty early here being Wednesday, but the forecast, there's quite a few games that could have some precipitation, some wind, some cold weather, some, you know, not so savory conditions when you're kind of playing out the string, playing out the end of your season, stuff like that.
31:50
So I do think that, you know, all of these things are kind of factors that you wanna key in on.
31:54
Um, you know, for example, I, I think Carolina and Atlanta is a game to take a look at here, where Tampa Bay's a massive favorite against New Orleans.
32:00
They should take care of business and maybe be taking care of business by the end of the first half. Maybe Atlanta kind of hears about that, right?
32:06
Maybe you still get, you know, some important reps from Michael Penix Jr. in this game, but maybe you don't get the full-fledged defensive effort in the second half.
32:15
So that's a game where I like the over between the Panthers and the Falcons. Couple of quarterbacks the last two weeks here that are top five in average depth of target.
32:22
Uh, so we could see some big explosive plays in this game, especially if, as I mentioned, you know, Atlanta kind of realizes their season is over, and maybe they keep going on offense, guys wanna put up numbers, but maybe you don't get as much of a defensive effort.
32:36
I like the thought. And then the weather note is a good one, too, 'cause while we're focused on all these, uh, motivational angles, we perhaps have forgotten about the weather. So I appreciate that, uh, reminder.
32:45
Last thing before you go here, Adam, and I, and I say this as someone who has the ultimate respect for you in terms of you, uh, have a history of having written the greatest baseball previews of all time when you were at Bang the Book and, and then, uh, since you've come to VSiN as well.
33:00
So I just want to say that as a backdrop. But then I ask [laughs] this question, which is, when can we expect the first Adam Burke baseball stuff to come down the pipeline?
33:10
Uh, I, I would say probably late February will be about the time. So, you know, we haven't done it in PDF form over the last couple of years. We've just been posting the guide digitally over at vsin.com.
33:20
I imagine that'll be the plan again, so look for that probably late February as, you know, we get a couple weeks into spring training. There you go. Adam Burke, everybody, @skatingtripods on Twitter.
33:31
Happy New Year, Adam. Thanks for making the time, man. Have a good one, guys. Adam Burke, everybody. VSiN Managing Editor. Again, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
33:39
Uh, Kelly and me with our final thoughts on the College Football Quarters today. It's a numbers game. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Coming up top of the hour after a numbers game, the College Football Tailgate Show, VSiN's College Football Tailgate Show special edition for the, uh, three quarterfinal games today. Tim Murray and Dustin Swedelson.
34:05
Let's go. Dustin fired up. Big time. Uh, for, from noon to 4:00. Noon to 4:00 Eastern. So from 9:00 to, uh, 1:00 Pacific. Four hours of the College Football Tailgate Show.
34:17
They will take you right through the first game, uh, today between Texas and Arizona State. Then Follow the Money. That leads right into, uh, Follow the Money from 4:00 to 7:00 PM Eastern.
34:27
And then VSiN Prime Time tonight from 7:00 to 11:00. That is your full day at VSiN, the sports betting network. Check it out.
34:35
And as, uh, JBT subtly hinted at earlier, him and Matt Youmans are work, work every single VSiN Prime Time on the holidays. That's right. So yeah, just- They're always together...
34:44
just wanted to make sure he got that out there earlier. That's right. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Brian Young, Notorious Guns, "Nothing better than starting the new year with two of the best.
34:51
Gil and Kelly New Year's resolution is to get brunch after a show with Gil, Kelly, and the Crack Man next time I'm in Vegas." You know, I'm kinda glad...
34:58
I, I'm not a big fan of just brunch in general, but I'm glad you used the word brunch 'cause, uh, I catch a lot of heat around here if I go with either breakfast or lunch after our show. How are you not a fan of brunch?
35:11
It gets out of control. When, when there's things like bottomless mimosas and stuff, I don't- Oh... I don't need champagne like that. I don't, I don't need perfume at 10:00 AM. Perfume.
35:19
[laughs] Manny Davison, "Happy New Year, fellas. Another year in the books. Looking forward to a profitable 2025." As are we. Happy New Year, Manny. Uh, this is from The Numbers Guys.
35:28
"I've never been so confused and sad and then reassured all is right with the world. I hopped out of bed this, uh, New Year's Day at 11:02 thinking it was crack time. It's not Thursday, dumb dumb.
35:37
Bears worth staying up for." Said the bear is worth staying up for. "Tell me he's as good a guy in real life." Yes. Chris Fallica is every bit as- Yep...
35:45
good of a guy in real life as he appears to be on this radio program. Do we have anybody on this show, Kelly? This is just me and you talking. Nobody's listening.
35:52
Do we have anybody on this show, uh, who is, uh, uh, appears to be good on the show, but then in real life is a horrible human being? Mm. Jonathan Von Tobel, obviously. [laughs] Just gotta go back to him, yeah.
36:03
Just, just go back to him. [laughs] He said it, JVT had it. [laughs] Jeff G, "Give me the hook." Uh, he says, uh, "The kid can sling it." He's talking about Gunner Stockton today.
36:12
Again, uh, a big part of the handicap of the, uh, Georgia-Notre Dame game obviously coming down to how you feel about Gunner Stockton. Jeff G, Give Me The Hook, says, "The kid can sling it.
36:22
He broke Trevor Lawrence's Georgia high school passing records. I remember when, uh, Buck Belue wanted Gunner to be the starter over Stetson Bennett. That's how good this kid is."
36:30
All I know is good thing it's Tim Murray and Dustin Sweetelson up next, 'cause I'd be going Gunner Henderson for I don't know- Oh... how long during the show. Me too. Yeah. It'd just be Orioles talk for two hours.
36:40
[laughs] Um, Matt at MattMay11, uh, "Took Chris Fallica's tip on Stockton to heart. Georgia to win, Stockton over 175 and a half yards at plus 229 is a nice price. Go Dogs, I guess," he said. Let's go, Dogs.
36:56
We're, uh, Gil and I are big fans. We are. I've forgotten I've had a future ticket on them, like six times this season. It, it really is the quietest futures ticket we have. I, what, what's your number though?
37:06
Mine's like- Five to one. Yeah, mine's like six to one That's all I got. It's not that impressive... it's nothing super exciting.
37:09
Uh, before we get, uh, back to the college football games and the College Football Tailgate Show after us, uh, it's time for our Best Bets of the Day courtesy of GBank, the official bank of VSiN, here on, uh, this show every day and of course every show on the network.
37:22
Uh, GBank, the official bank of VSiN. Mine, the Rams plus three.
37:25
Worst of it, worst of it alert, didn't follow my own advice that teams, uh, don't tend to care about seeding as much as we do as handicappers, and I, uh, speculated when that was moving, when it was drifting, uh, by a half point yesterday on the show.
37:37
I was like, "Is, is Sean McVay about to sit all his players? Is Wayne Brady gonna have to make a bad bet?" I did, and sure enough, after the show, Sean McVay's like, "We're sitting everybody." I am on the Texans.
37:48
I am on the Texans, uh, at a pick 'em. On guessing lines I couldn't believe that they were four and a half point dogs. Did I bet it then? No, 'cause I was doing a show, everybody.
37:57
But after the show I bet the Texans at a pick 'em against the Titans, 'cause the Titans have nothing to play for. They want to lose, or they should want to lose as an organization.
38:06
And I'm on the Longhorns here early minus 13. By the way, I'm also on Georgia. Ah. The, uh, the game I am not on is Ohio State and Oregon, which I believe I will just, uh, wait to bet in-game.
38:19
Kelly Bidlin, uh, Kelay Bidilan, his best bets, he's on the Charge, minus three and a half, but he's, uh, thinking about manipulating perhaps this weekend. I gotta wait and see. Wait and see- Based on-...
38:29
what happens with the Steelers out there, yeah... based on what the Steelers do, yeah. Have to buy off a little bit of that. Shoot for that middle. Old Middle and Bidlin back, watch out.
38:35
Kelly Middle and Bidlin, Broncos-Vikings six-point teaser, which is a, uh, I think an obvious teaser to make.
38:42
Uh, the Vikings getting the eight and a half in that showdown with the Lions for the number one seed in the NFC and the NFC North title. He too is on Texas today, this morning. Uh, this game starts in, uh, what?
38:52
A little over an hour. Yep. And then you took the points with Oregon. Yeah, we just went to three here at Circa. Well, I don't know if it got that back down. Really?
38:58
But yeah, three, um- Ooh, okay, now we- Yeah, plus three minus 120 on it for me... now we're getting a little crazy. Uh, also from our guest today, JVT, who, uh, Kelly only had bad things to say about moments ago.
39:09
[laughs] Uh, he's on Texas laying the points vizer- versus Arizona State. He is on Ohio State, he's oppo you, versus Oregon.
39:16
Uh, and a couple, he has a prop, Riley Leonard under 45 and a half rushing yards, and he's on the Notre Dame-Georgia under at 45 and a half. Uh, also bets today from Adam Burke. He's on the Mocs minus three.
39:29
What were you saying off air? When did Tennessee Chattanooga become Chattanooga? Yeah. Hmm? I don't know. Also, did I spell Chattanooga right? You did, I think. [laughs] Yes. I don't know why it looks weird in your eyes.
39:38
Two T's, two O's? I believe that's correct. Yeah. [laughs] Why did you think you were correct? Oh, that just looked odd. Kelly's like, "Shouldn't there be three O's?" Oh, and Chris Fallica.
39:45
And then Chris Fallica, uh, he's on, uh, Quintrevion Whisner over 80 and a half rushing yards. He's on the Texas-Arizona State over in the first half at 27 and a half.
39:55
He is on Oregon plus the two and a half versus Ohio State. He's on the Georgia money line versus Notre Dame. And then a couple soccer bets for good measure. Mm-hmm.
40:03
Brentford double chance at plus 160 in a game that starts, what? A little over a half hour from now. Yep. Uh, and then a little later today, Southampton-Sunderland, the under two and a half from Fallica as well.
40:17
Uh, those are your VSiN GBank Best Bets of the Day. Uh, don't forget, VSiN recommends every bettor make the GBank Visa Signature Card part of their betting toolbox.
40:25
Save up to 3 to 5% on cash advance fees, earn cash back rewards on eligible betting transactions, and now for a limited time you'll get a $250 bonus when you open your account, spend $1,000 in the first 90 days.
40:36
Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank. Take advantage of the $250 bonus for a limited time from our friends at GBank, the official bank of VSiN, subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply.
40:48
Were you on the game yesterday between, uh, Penn State and Boise State? I did not have a single dollar involved. Did not. Uh, ended up with- And honestly, I'm kind of glad.
40:55
As you've brought up a couple times, the right side, uh, situation, like I- I've- You know me and my college football watching habits. Yes. I watched that game early.
41:02
I was like, "Oh, this is gonna be a Penn State runaway." Tuned out for a little bit, and then it was like, "Whoa, this Boise State team pretty feisty here." It looked like it was gonna be over by halftime. Yeah, it did.
41:11
Yeah. Uh, Penn State, uh, to the early 14 to nothing lead, and then Penn State got a little too cute with the play calling.
41:16
Um, I was on Penn State, but you're, uh, but as we said earlier on the show, I'm not sure it was the right side. I'm not sure Boise State was the right side. I think you could make a case that both teams were.
41:25
It doesn't matter in the end. Uh, Penn State gets the money, and, um, I don't know if this is...
41:31
It, it feels like the end of the road for Penn State, no matter who they play coming up in the semis, but we'll see what that number is.
41:35
Obviously, uh, that's the great equalizer, and we'll see what the, uh, where the money sh- ought to be based on the spread. But Penn State gets through. They are the first semifinalist.
41:44
And as far as today is concerned, once again, I am on just the, I'm all on the first and the last game. Like, I'm going to trust Quinn Ewers, he says very- I'm just riding our futures ticket-... very cautiously...
41:54
on that last one. Uh, you're just gonna ri- oh, you're not, you're not touching it. [laughs] I feel like Georgia. We really, I feel like Georgia comes through, and I think all the Gunner Stockton talk is correct.
42:02
Like, as great as Carson Beck is, what is the drop off? It's unclear if it's a massive one or even, you know, anything of significance at all.
42:12
Maybe there is a small one, but- Man, I think that C- Chris Feliko, what he brought up about the whole locker room situation is very interesting You gotta listen to that kind of thing. Yeah. Yeah.
42:20
Um, but Or- but Oregon, Ohio State, I do think as great as Ohio State is, b- by the way, no outcome would surprise me here. Ohio State wins by, you know, uh, two scores. Would I be shocked?
42:32
I don't know if I'd be shocked, um, but it wouldn't be the most outlandish thing in the world, nor would I f- nor would I feel that way if Oregon, uh, ended up winning by, uh, two scores.
42:41
Might just be just as close as the first meeting was this year. Uh, but this is one I wanna, uh, watch and, uh, probably in game, because I do, I do agree with what Adam Burke was saying.
42:51
Will Howard could not have looked better- Yeah... last week, and so I think there's a lot of people are like, "Oh my God, it's, it's top," you know, what does, what does Tom Brady say? "A-plus Ohio State here."
43:00
I don't know if we can count on that today. Uh, game you're looking forward to the most today just to watch. This one? Uh, this one, for sure. This one? Yeah, me too. For sure.
43:08
Um, probably a, a topic for, uh, Crack tomorrow, 'cause we did talk about it just a couple weeks ago, but man, I'm look- I'm looking at a couple books right now who aren't even hanging unders on player props anymore with college football.
43:20
No unders at all. No unders. Just overs. Just the 50-plus, 60-plus, 70-plus stuff. It's depressing, man. I don't know. I, it's... I think you guys had a great chat about it a couple weeks ago. Um, I don't know.
43:34
It's just sad that we can't, uh, [laughs] we, we can't bet unders on these things. Uh, boys and girls- Uh, legally...
43:39
wanna just, for the new bettors out there, when there's, when it's not a two-way market, uh, that's not good for you, the bettor. Yeah. That is not good for you, the bettor.
43:45
Uh, way to end it on a somber note there on, uh, Sportsbet- It, uh, it's depressed me. I'm sorry. I'm gonna leave you all depressed too- No, no... for, uh, January 1st. But don't worry, Tim and Dustin coming up next.
43:53
Tim and Dustin coming up. So it is a special edition of the College Football Tailgate Show. Uh, Tim Murray, Dustin Sweeton, they will take you through. They'll be on air for four hours.
44:02
They will take you through, literally, uh, as they're on air, the Texas/Arizona State game, and then, uh, they will give away. But four hours of college football talk with both Tim and Dustin. Looking forward to that.
44:12
Good luck with all your bets. Happy New Year to you and yours. May it be a prosperous one and a profitable one. Uh, we will certainly try to do our part in making that so. Good luck.
44:25
Coming back with the College Football Tailgate Show, Tim and Dustin. It's VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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