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Jan 21, 2026
A Numbers Game | January 21, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | January 21, 2026 | Hour 3
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46:08
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Transcript
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0:53
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:02
Hour number three of the numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. You can really draw it out if you do it that way. Mm-hmm.
1:13
Yeah. It's, it's good. It's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bydlon, everybody. My little buddy, Kelly Bydlon. You can follow Kelly on Twitter @kelleybydlon. That's K-E-L-L-E-Y B-Y-D-L-O-N. Boom. There you go. Nailed it.
1:28
Nailed it. I'm at Beating, I'm at Beating the Book. By the way, uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book.
1:32
Dan Groeschel, "As a Bucks fan, I'm appreciative of Giannis for bringing a title to Milwaukee, but if he leaves, there will be a Favre-style dead spot in my heart until the day he retires, at which point I will resume my affection for him."
1:46
That's fair. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's how you're supposed to handle it with, uh, guys like that. And Danny Bremet, I hope I'm pronouncing that okay, Danny.
1:53
He says, "I do believe Kelly should fly east in time to play with Super Dave Ross in the snowstorm this weekend." Apparently, uh, Kelly, while you complain about the weather here, people are about to get destroyed.
2:03
We end up having, uh, we had, uh, randomly, coincidentally today, two guys, Sian Najad earlier, who lives in Northern Virginia, part of the DMV as the kids call it- Mm-hmm...
2:11
the District of Maryland, Virginia, and Warren Sharp set to join us now from the DMV as well. Warren, by the way, has a great deal for VSiN listeners this week.
2:19
You can get all of his conference championship betting recommendations for just $25. His best bets of the week are 15 and 3 on the season. That's 15 and 3.
2:28
Go to sharp.football and click the top link to get all of his plays for the weekend at a 75% discount. Warren joins us now. By the way, you can follow him not only at sharp.football, but @sharpfootball on Twitter.
2:39
Warren, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Warren, how you doing, man? The snow's coming, huh? It's coming, the snow and the cold, which is going to make it worse. Now, uh, I've been tracking this storm.
2:50
It doesn't impact any NFL games, but obviously it impacts my, my own personal life, so trying to make sure that, uh, I'm prepared for it as best possible.
2:58
But I mean, they're calling, Gil, for, like, 17 to 20 inches of snow potentially. You never know. Whoa. They're always wrong- Yikes... it seems.
3:05
Uh, but y- a lot of snow, and then for the next, like, week, it's supposed to not get above, like, 27, 28 degrees. So it's, whatever's here is going to stay.
3:16
Uh, obviously could result in power outages, could result in, um, you know, s- some issues. It's supposed to start Saturday night, all day long on Sunday, leave the area Monday.
3:26
I think it's going up to New York and, and, and beyond further north. Uh, but, like, the further south, some of those areas that aren't used to getting weather are also going to get some, maybe in the form of ice.
3:38
So it's, it's, it's pretty massive. But it does not impact either of these games which are being played out there on the, uh, on the West Coast or Denver, so, uh, it doesn't really impact- Yeah... anything for the NFL.
3:48
Uh, it is interesting, though, 'cause these, there's been many a winter.
3:50
These are one of those storms where, like, the people in South Florida are the only ones spared, where they're like, "Look how we're, we're genius for living here, uh, compared to everybody else."
3:58
I do wanna say this w- before we move on, though. You mentioned the thing about the weathermen being always wrong.
4:03
Im- imagine that the weathermen, by the way, weatherwomen as well, weather, weather folks, uh, who do the local news in all these cities, I've brought this up from time to time, they are never...
4:13
Does anybody ever grade their forecasts? Like, the, it just feels like they can go 22% in terms of accuracy, and yet they still can have the job forever. Yeah.
4:24
It is, it is amazing in DC, they never get it right there, do they? I, I don't know, uh, to your point, do these people get raises and promotions and just get extended if they're good on air- I think so...
4:36
and are just good at being- Yeah... broadcasters as opposed to their accuracy? I wonder if, like, a number two or number three guy ever comes to, like, the boss and says- Yeah...
4:44
"Hey, buddy, I know this guy's been here-" [laughs] "... but look at my rates. Like, I've tracked him. I got my own rates. I'm so much better than he is." I'm sure. I'm sure some- You know, how that works...
4:52
a number two or three guy- Yeah... pointing that out to the bosses. I'm sure. I worked in local news for about a decade. I think, uh, Warren just painted a pretty good picture of it.
5:00
[laughs] I know old pretty boy here is great on TV, but he can't get anything right. I'm sure that happens. All right, let's do this, uh, one by one. AFC Championship, Patriots at Broncos in Denver, at Denver.
5:10
Uh, the first of the two games, 3:00 PM Eastern, uh, 1:00 PM Mountain Time. That's noon Pacific.
5:16
For the four and a half point favored Patriots now here at Circa, uh, there's probably a little more than that, five or five and a half still out there, too. 42 and a half is the total.
5:25
Warren, what are your thoughts on this? Well, the first thing goes to Jarrett Stidham. Did we over-correct from a oddsmaker perspective? Is there too much of a line adjustment for Jarrett Stidham being a quarterback?
5:39
One thing we know, Sean Payton has been able to work with some less experienced guys. Another thing we know is that Sean Payton has a massive ego and loves to make guys that he brings in look as best as possible.
5:51
He sometimes does it in games early in the season. If it's a player that he was pounding the table for in the NFL draft room, uh, he goes out there and gets the guy a few extra stats at the end of a game.
6:03
We've been able to bet on some props that way, just because Sean, this was Sean Payton's guy. He gets a little bit more work in some blowout games.
6:09
Uh, but in this particular instance, I'm just curious how much they're going to adjust their game plan, Gil, for Stidham, because Sean Payton certainly has confidence. He's talked him up all week.
6:21
This run game, if they don't have JK Dobbins, this run game really is not built to support a- A team, beating a team like the New England Patriots. The New England Patriots run defense is incredible.
6:32
It's outstanding, especially with Milton Williams back in the fold.
6:36
So I don't know how much the Patriots are going to be able to run the foot- uh, sorry, the Broncos are gonna be able to run the football on the New England Patriots.
6:45
Uh, we might get Stidham dropping back to pass more frequently, even if they don't want him to, uh, because even if it's not really in the game design, it might just be something that needs to happen.
6:56
And as a result, you might have some upside here for Stidham to be utilizing his legs or some of these short passes. Uh, then again, it could just be a disaster on that side of the ball. Stidham might be bad.
7:07
Stidham might not have a lot of success, and the, uh, New England Patriots might have the football an awful lot, and so some of their props might be undervalued. So it's an interesting way that you paint this.
7:19
You sort of from a betting perspective or from a props perspective, you could try to take like a middle line, but you'll probably win more money if you decide to take a firmer stance that he's either going to be okay, and therefore we're, a lot of these Denver Broncos props are undervalued, or he's going to be really bad, and therefore, we might have some upside for, uh, ball possession and time of possession for the New England Patriots.
7:44
Uh, two things. One, your dog seemed to have objected to your analysis there. Wasn't very happy with your analysis. I think we can... Yep, yep, there we go again.
7:50
[laughs] Uh, and then two, um, I love the, you're not the only one to bring this up, but the, the theme, the underlying theme of this game, the Sean Payton ego thing with Stidham that everybody secretly believes, [laughs] and I think, and I think it's accurate, that Sean Payton is just loving this scenario where it's like, "I get to coach up a guy who's only started four NFL games and none since 2023 into a Super Bowl.
8:16
I will look fantastic." Uh, Sean Payton, who acts like he's won 47 Super Bowls. Man, I actually think that's the case. How that will manifest in the game, I have no idea. Um, but I'm with you.
8:26
I don't think it should've been adjusted this much. I really don't. Um, to the NFC Championship, Rams and Seahawks. I'll start with the same question I've asked of everybody. Warren, I'll start this with you.
8:35
Do you think this is the de facto Super Bowl? I don't. Um, I, I think it's going to be an outstanding game.
8:43
I think if you look at the way that the Seattle Seahawks have played the Rams each of the last two times, I think that they probably believe they should've won both of those games.
8:53
Um, Sam Darnold might have lost them both of those games with the way that he performed, and I think that the Seahawks have a lot of confidence being able to play at home with the rest, being in an environment that they know is very hostile for opponents.
9:08
Now, I know this is not something like, uh, the, you know, the, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming up here to play in the Pacific Northwest, where they rarely play. This is the LA Rams.
9:18
They play here once a year at minimum. But I absolutely believe that this is a game that the Seattle Seahawks have to feel very confident in their ability to have success.
9:29
Now, the Rams, of course, going on the road last week, going on the road the week before. The road warriors, uh, being made an underdog finally for the first time.
9:38
They didn't cover either of those two games that they were playing and winning in the first two rounds of the postseason.
9:44
But I was just very concerned with the offensive theme and the style and the strategy of Sean McVay in that last game. I expected a lot more heavy personnel.
9:56
They couldn't utilize that in their game against Carolina in the Wild Card round because of the way Carolina plays defense and how good they are defending play action drop backs.
10:04
So they adjusted their offense and played more 11 personnel shotgun style drop backs against the Panthers.
10:10
I thought they would adjust and play their more traditional 2025 Rams offense here in this game against the Chicago Bears, but they didn't.
10:17
They kept 11 personnel, spread the field using shotgun far too much, and leaned too much into the pass. Didn't have the balance.
10:24
Finally, they were able to find more success in the last half, uh, last quarter of the game by leaning more into the run game.
10:31
And so I just don't know if I have a lot of confidence in the game planning and the strategizing for Sean McVay here. Not to say he's one, not one of the best coaches in the NFL. Obviously, he is.
10:40
It's gonna be interesting, that cat and mouse battle between him calling plays offensively against Mike McDonald, the Seahawks' defensive, uh, mastermind there.
10:50
I think this is gonna be a great game, but I absolutely still believe that while whoever wins this game certainly is going to be heavily favored in the Super Bowl, I do think that both of those teams in the AFC have a shot.
11:02
Now, Stidham certainly less of a shot, uh, than Drake May would have, but I, I wouldn't doubt Mike Vrabel with two weeks to prepare, trying to come up with a game plan that keeps that Super Bowl close.
11:13
Uh, especially the way that the New England Patriots start games, Gil. One of the best in the NFL at their early part of games, their first quarter, their first half. ATS, they're really good at that point in time.
11:24
Maybe they don't get blown out early in that Super Bowl if they do face one of these teams. Just, you're, you're a matchup guy. I'm just curious, what matchup would you like to see in the Super Bowl?
11:34
Probably I want, the one, the one that I would think would be the most, uh, compelling to me would be the Rams versus the Patriots, just to see, uh, strong defense of the New England Patriots with a quarterback that I have confidence in.
11:47
I don't really wanna see Jarrett Stidham in the Super Bowl- [laughs]... if, if we can avoid that. Yeah.
11:51
Uh, going up against, you know, Mi- uh, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, and I, I think that that would be a great storyline.
11:58
Seahawks could, could be a, a great storyline as well, but I, I would really enjoy seeing, uh, the, the former match up there. Rams and Patriots.
12:05
Yeah, Rams, Patriots, in terms of the lookahead lines anyway, would be the closest lined. Rams favored by three currently against the Patriots with a total of 50 and a half.
12:16
Warren, again, uh, with his big deal over there at Sharp.football. Uh, you click the top link to get all of his plays for the weekend at a 75% discount. Check it out there. Warren, thank you so much.
12:28
All right, thanks, fellas Warren Sharp, everybody. @sharpfootball. The deal at sharp.football where you use code sharp75. Uh, we will come back. Todd Wishnev will join us, talk some college hoops with us.
12:41
Money management involved. We shall discuss next on The Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:52
Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
13:00
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13:08
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, check this out right here.
13:25
Kelly Bentley, "The most memorable sports betting moments of 2025," a VSiN special.
13:32
This coming Tuesday, so six days from now, this coming Tuesday, January 27th at 1:00 PM Eastern, 10:00 AM Pacific, hosted by Tim Murray as, uh, it's a retrospective of all the most memorable sports betting moments of 2025.
13:46
And a whole bunch of folks from VSiN involved in sort of giving their little spin on some different events, like the Dodgers unbelievable game seven win over the Toronto Blue Jays,
13:59
the Shedeur Sanders fall from grace from the, uh, top of the NFL draft to the fifth round, those kinds of things.
14:05
The most memorable sports betting moments of 2025, Tuesday, January 27th, 1:00 PM Eastern hosted by Tim Murray right here at VSiN. Looking forward to that. Great looking graphic by the team. Yeah, man. And like the...
14:16
See, Shedeur's in a suit- Yeah... because it's the draft betting. Correct. And that's why he's not in a uniform like everybody else. [laughs] See the thought that goes into the graphic.
14:25
[laughs] Once again, once again, you have sussed out the thinking. Yeah. You, you've done a great job on that. Uh, we got tweets meeting the book. Paul M., "Gil, we can analyze both these championship games all we want.
14:35
Tons of opinions, but all you need to know is Oz Perlman picked the Rams over the Broncos 23 to 14. 'Nough said." Yep. We've brought it up already. 23 to 14 Rams, he called it.
14:48
Jody Boggs, "On deck, Todd Wishnev AKA," he said conference champions, "AKA division champ coming up with Gilly. Should be an entertaining segment. Drake May jersey appearance?" Question mark. I don't know.
14:57
He might have retired the Drake May jersey. Mm. He already won the, he already won the division, so. Uh, guest chair wins the championship though.
15:02
And The Numbers Guys, "Is the problem Todd's run into is the books have gotten the algorithm more dialed in after six weeks or so of play, and now it's just a crap shoot? Since approximately
15:13
January 1st, as a tailor of Todd's, it's been much harder to replicate his plays on top of his success before." Well, why don't we bring in Todd Wishnev as the star of Wishnev Wednesdays here on The Numbers Game.
15:24
There he is all, all purple on one of his Megapod rants. Also the star of the Megapod, by the way, which, uh, championship, uh, week guest is Dr. Bob this Thursday. Super Bowl week guest Rufus Peabody as well.
15:36
There you go. Todd Wishnev from, uh, Pittsburgh, PA. How you doing, Toddy? I heard Tim Murray, uh, the, uh, first thing he'll be going over in the, for the best moments of 2025 is my massive division win in the Megapod.
15:48
[laughs] So thank you to Tim Murray. S- so we covered. [laughs] I really appreciate that. Yes, thank you. First thing Tim will cover. We edit that separately. Don't worry, Todd. Yeah. It's, yeah.
15:56
That's a whole, that's a whole show to itself. Yeah. Okay. Let's, let's go through some of these things. Well, first of all, you're in Pittsburgh. How, what's the weather supposed to be like there? What are you getting?
16:03
Ugh, I don't even wanna talk about it, it's so ridiculous. Oh, okay. It's supposed to be... It depends which model you... If you go with the European model, it should be eight million inches.
16:12
[laughs] And if you go with the other model, we're just looking at 7.5 inches, so do your preparations. All right, well, let's talk about a, let's talk about a few things.
16:21
Did Todd and Warren l- just nailing w- local news here the past two segments. Absolutely. Doing a great job. Great job. Doing a great... We didn't, we didn't expect for this to be a roast of- Yeah...
16:29
local weather people, but there you go. That, that was the South Florida hurricane thing every time. Like, "The European model's got it over here, but I don't know about that one."
16:36
[laughs] What does the Doppler have it at? That's another, that's a whole nother thing. All right, The Numbers Guys just asked a question, um, and let's just go through it.
16:43
Todd was scorching red hot in college basketball, soared over 100 units. Um, it has not been as hot here in the late, that's for sure. So let's talk about a few things.
16:56
One, let's, let's just address The Numbers Guys question, Todd, first, which is, is it because the algorithm is more dialed in after six weeks or so of play, and now it's just a crap shoot? Let's start there.
17:08
Uh, I'm not really sure that's true. I mean, I tend to play a lot of first half overs, and it could be that maybe the speed of pace of the game has slowed a touch.
17:17
But, you know, I'm, I'm usually looking for the fast games anyway, so I'm not sure. The answer is I'm not sure because last year I did very poorly the beginning of the year, and then in conference play I did very well.
17:27
This year it's coming back the other way. Yeah.
17:29
And it, it really just feeds into what we, what I wanna talk about today, which is basically you have to have money management and you have to understand that small sample sizes are hundreds of picks.
17:40
And this is why, you know, I, I love to give Gilly and, and, and, and, uh, Willie the business on the Megapod about how badly they did. It doesn't mean anything, guys.
17:48
If you go [laughs] in 54 picks, if you go, you know, 20 and 34, it's meaningless. You know, people think, "Oh, 54 picks. You're, you're terrible. You went 20 and 34." No, you had a bad...
17:59
Now you might, you might happen to be terrible, but it also could be just you ran into a bad run. 54 picks means nothing. And let's just look in the numbers ba- basically about what you were just talking about.
18:10
Up to January 2nd, I had made 770 college basketball picks from the beginning of the year, November 3rd, to January 2nd. So in that two-month period I made 770 picks, hit 62% by going 478 and 292. Wow.
18:26
To be fair, versus about a minus 118 and a half Buy rate. So not against a minus 110, 'cause I'm mostly paying minus 118, just to be 100% fair.
18:37
And on a minus 118, you gotta go about 54% to break even, as opposed to 52.4 versus a minus 110.
18:43
So if you hit 62%, you know, you gotta take a point and a half off of that because you're, instead of 52 and a half, break even, it's 54. Okay, fine.
18:51
So that's an amazing stretch, and if you remember on the Discord, I kept saying, "Guys, this is unsustainable." Yep. You did. "This is not going to continue. You must be careful," okay?
19:01
Now, since January 2nd, we have now made 252 picks, so 770 in that first period, and now since then in the last, you know, 18 to 19 days, 20 days, 252 picks.
19:14
And I've gone from plus 129 units, that was the high water mark, to now 107.7, so around 108, let's call it. Down about 21 units. My record in that 252 pick period is 126 and 126.
19:32
Exactly 50% since January 2nd. So you might say, "Oh," like what the questioner just asked, "Oh, is it different now it's conference play? Maybe Todd doesn't know what he's doing in conference play," blah, blah.
19:44
That might be true. I'm not saying it's not, but I tend to think it's not, because I've been through too many seasons like this where sometimes I do good in conference, sometimes I do good in pre-conference.
19:55
It j- and sometimes it's about the same. So again, 252 picks sounds like a billion picks. It's really not, guys. It's really not.
20:04
I once read an article, um, by Pinnacle years ago where they said if a guy was up after 1,000 plays, there's a 21% chance he was just lucky. Yeah.
20:14
So it's, it's, it's very hard, and this is, uh, you know, people overreact and they think, "Oh my gosh, 250 picks, you're 126." So which, which handicapper am I?
20:25
Am I the guy who went 126 and 126, or am I the guy who went 62% in the first 770? I'm neither. There's- Right? There- It's just variance. There, there's, there's so many great lessons in there, though.
20:38
The two biggest ones, again, are the sample size lesson, which is so true, and that's what I always say about contests. If you crush contests two years in a row in the NFL, it's still only like- It's nothing.
20:48
Yeah, right, right... 150 games. It's nothing, right? It, it, it is not a predictor of what could happen in the future, generally speaking. The other, the other point you made I don't wanna gloss over, which is,
20:57
you know, people say, "Oh, is, uh, the, uh, is he just not as good at conference play after January 1st?" And you make the point every season is different.
21:04
W- it's, I'm glad you brought that up, because we tend to on these shows say, "Oh, the beginning of college basketballs," or r- like, we s- we tend to generalize.
21:11
I found that when I used to handicap baseball, uh, for the entire summer. Some years I would be outstanding at the beginning. Some years I would be outstanding at the end.
21:20
I could never make a consistent, you know, conclusion with any of that, and I think mostly it comes down to that as well.
21:28
So I'm glad you, I'm glad you make that point as well, because people tend to want to explain, and sometimes there is no explanation, right? They want answers. People want answers.
21:39
There's 300 billion galaxies, so we came up with something called religion to give you an answer. [laughs] Here's the answer, folks. Okay. [laughs] Sorry, that was just a little shot at the- Just a little side note...
21:49
but it's similar. It's really- Yeah. [laughs] It's really something, the reason I make that joke is because people are dying to put answers on things that don't have answers. Or maybe they have partial answers, right?
22:01
Oh, yeah. Maybe there is a partial answer that conference play is a little hard.
22:05
But we can't be sure, and if you've played for this long as I've played these college basketball games, [laughs] like you said with the baseball, you have to understand hundreds of picks is a small s- sample size still.
22:17
Yeah. It, uh, uh, anyway, I think it's a worthwhile discussion because, uh, you know, for, for folks who are new bettors or new to betting, what, what's Dr. Bob's line?
22:26
Your success as a bettor can often be traced to your ability to overcome negative variance.
22:31
What it is in that line is built in, you just have to accept that variance is going to happen, and sometimes it's negative- Absolutely... sometimes it's positive.
22:39
Uh, last thing before you go, 'cause we only have 60 seconds. You brought up something in the group chat, and this- By the way, I'm just kidding, the religion people. They don't have to get all angry. It's okay.
22:46
It's okay. You know, it's just a joke. I know. Okay. I'm glad you said that. Okay. Okay. Uh, 60 seconds left.
22:50
You brought up something in the group chat which is just a theory or spitballing, just in, a- again, along the lines of, "Hey, let's try to explain some of this," perhaps. But that had to do with a transfer portal.
23:00
Explain. Yeah. I, I, you know, I noticed this year second halves, uh, uh, teams down a- at home typically have been a real good play, especially when they didn't shoot well from three and the other team did.
23:12
And this year it just doesn't seem to be, and I could be wrong, again, it's just something that I, you know, I watch thousands of games, so it just, I, I feel like the second half home teams are not as strong, and I, I, I theorized on the, uh, text thread that we all do, it could be because of the mercenary nature of NIL.
23:29
And in the past when everybody had so much to gain, kids dug deep at home and your coach would go, "Right, this is our house. This is our house. No one's coming in here and beating us in our house." Oh, geez.
23:39
And then the kids would come out in the second half and just dig in- [laughs]... and not let them lose at home. Yeah. But maybe now you got mercenaries in there going, "Hey, [laughs]
23:48
I'm gonna be gone in four weeks because- That's right... this idiot's telling me to rah-rah. I'm gonna be on North Kentucky State next year. Screw this guy, and I'm not digging deep." So- Yeah...
23:57
again, just a theory, but it has seemed to be, you know, some teams just- Like Wake Forest last night. I like that it makes sense. They were plus six at the half, down nine. Yeah. It makes sense. It's, it's not my house.
24:07
I'm just renting. Right, right. Yeah. It's just a rental. Wishnev Wednesdays. Thank you, Toddy, appreciate it. Todd Wishnev, everybody. Thanks. @TWishnev coming back.
24:14
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25:10
That's our way of getting you guys to put in ANG. Just all those Kelly things. You'll remember- [laughs]... ANG. I, I appreciate the second chance this time. You're welcome. 'Cause the oth- whatever.
25:18
What did I say the first time around? That was not good. No. A nimble gnome. The next game? Like it has game in there already, Kelly. It's not a good one. Nope. Geez, you're better than this. Get it together.
25:30
Buddhist Man on Twitter, "On the trip down memory lane earlier, the dulcet tones of Jeff Parley aside, how much have we aged in a short period?"
25:37
He says, "Except for Fezzik d- during his pre- during his performance enhanced hair coloring stage." Yeah. [laughs] You know Todd had no idea Stevie was coloring his hair? Well, like most of the... Ah, man.
25:49
I'm like, are you serious with me? Feel bad for the guy. Steve, what, do whatever makes you feel best about yourself. But the, uh- No, don't do it. Don't do it.
25:54
Don't color your hair But like, no, for a long time he did it like well. It was just the like the one, like the one period where he let it go for too long, and then went very, very jet black with it.
26:06
Buddhist adds, "While I have adopted a shorter style, I commend Gil for leaning into his fireball stage." [laughs] I don't know that reference. I don't, I don't know that reference at all. Was that a, is that...
26:14
Who is that right there? Uh, I will say this, that was the startling thing of that v- video for me, and I will say this, Kelly.
26:20
This is what- That was from Running Man, I believe This is what happens to, to m- men, or at least I will just speak for this man. This is what happened to me. When I was in my early 40s,
26:28
I still looked way younger than my age. And then as the years progressed, that, uh- Geez, man...
26:34
that age that was below my actual age came smacking dab into me, caught me, and now I might even add, might have, [laughs] might have gone past me. Yeah. Maybe it's waking up at 4:55 AM every morning.
26:46
You've warned me about this a couple times. It's coming. Yep, right on the verge of that 40 mark, so. Maybe. So in 10 years I'm gonna look like it's 20 years from what I look like now?
26:54
I'm just saying how it, how it worked for me. It's not worth it, Jeff. Pass. Can we look, can we do a couple minutes on- Look at that dude. Look at that guy. Look at that guy. Wow.
27:00
Well, first of all, he's also got the button-down. One, one plunging collar. That's right, yeah. He just, he just looks more- Looks more tanned... yeah. He's ready to go. What's happening? He's ready to hit the town.
27:11
Falling apart. And that was just four years ago. We didn't even go back further. We could've gone back to like 2017. My pinned tweet is like from 2018. Oh, man. Good God, I look like a child.
27:20
Feel, feels like we were at The D for a lot longer than we were. Yeah, we were at The D for one year, and it felt like it was four. Yeah. Yeah. Real good. This was at the South Point back then, back in the day.
27:30
Love that. Miss that studio. Uh, and the hair color. Look, I just got gray hair. That's the, that's the biggest difference.
27:36
Uh, Rick Olier, "First thing I hear when getting into my car is Wishnev pumping me up to defend his house, and buddy, let me tell you, I'm ready to run through a wall. #CoachTodd."
27:45
Yeah, Wishnev, he, he exploded on that, didn't he? Yeah. [laughs] Good, great stuff from Todd. Todd was great today. I thought that was a fascinating segment.
27:53
You know, besides alienating tens of millions of people with a religion thing. Yeah. Other than that, it was great. [laughs] Yeah, other than that.
28:00
Um- No, but I think the, the overcoming positive and negative variance, right? Like, like Todd was very, very good with that at the beginning of the season, I thought, with like, he was...
28:09
E- every time you'd try to build up how hot he was or whatever, he, he- He would always say... yeah, "This is, this is not gonna be the whole season." This is not... But Dr. Bob says it all the time. Dr.
28:18
Bob, when he's having a good run, right? 63%, he goes, "Just to let you know, I am unlikely to continue this performance."
28:26
I don't know about you, man, but it's one of those like, like for me, it's, like, you know, for anybody who's done this for long enough, in any sport, done long enough, yeah, like it, it's...
28:34
When you get into a bad streak, like you know it's gonna end. Like I know it's gonna end. Yeah. And yeah, you can get down in the dumps.
28:41
I actually think what's scarier is when you get on a hot run, and like that's one of the first things you start thinking about. It's like, "Well, this isn't gonna last forever."
28:47
[laughs] Like, you just think it's gonna end every day, and every day it doesn't, it feels great, but...
28:52
JT at Pigs Feet 747 says, "May, may have been covered already, but what's going on with the cedar shake and Wishnev ceiling? Variance?" [laughs] Best listeners of the game. Clever. Clever as always. Cedar shake.
29:06
Not sure I understood that part. You ready to talk some, uh, golf and go country clubbing? Yeah, let's do it, man. We be clubbing. Let's do it. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah. Wow.
29:20
How are we gonna show the audience the glow sticks? I'll have to take a video of it sometime. Yeah, we should- D- Danny's holding something else that I don't even remember what the heck that thing's for.
29:30
He's got like a weird looking like, uh, like taser situation in the, in the control room.
29:35
The cool thing from, the cool thing from our perspective is that we see the glow sticks, and then I also see the glare of a glow... So I'm seeing double the glow sticks probably as well. Oh, yes, there is that. Yeah.
29:45
Yeah, there's multiple panes of glass. We, we should record it next time from our perspective. Danny's holding a black light, which I didn't get the explanation. We have in the back for some reason.
29:53
I don't know if I want to know the reason, though. American Express odds. I love it [laughs] when you have a conversation- I just thought that Larry's trying to explain it three different times. Like, yeah, yeah.
30:02
It's like, it's not going over the air, guys. Not, not going through. Uh- By, by the way, what was the, uh- Yeah... the cedar what was dropped on you? I think that was some expert level, uh, roofing talk.
30:10
Oh, is that what that was? Yeah, yeah. I'm glad you didn't pick... Like I was like- Oh, right... cedar shake, what? Cedar shake, what? Yeah, that looks like roofing panels to me.
30:16
[laughs] American Express odds, we talked about these earlier with Sia. Scotty Scheffler, plus 290 to win it. By the way, he's also minus 120 to finish top five. Everybody else is distant, starting with Ben Griffin.
30:30
Are you high on Ben Griffin this year? Uh, he, yes. Or, or is it kind of, or is it kind of João Fonseca-ish? João Fonseca-ish. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, like he's good He's good.
30:39
I think there's a, there's definitely a part of my brain that wants to see, or needs to see him put on... The problem is, is how, how great he putted last year.
30:48
It was so great, and it kept happening week after week, that I think, Gil, that's just him, and that's a great weapon to have. Yep. But I kind of would like to see it a few more times first.
30:58
That's what I tried to say on the Megapod about the Australian Open. I was like, "Hey, I get it. Zhao's gonna be great, but easy." There's also, like, that's the nice thing about betting these sports, right?
31:07
Golf and tennis. It doesn't mean I'm going up against Ben Griffin, right? Nope. That's right. Leave, leave him alone and see, you'll figure it out.
31:13
Where do you stand on Ludvig Aberg, who's the third shot at 22 to 1 plus 550 to finish top five? Well, you know I've been big on Ludvig, uh, for a couple years now. It, this is- But it hasn't really hit yet, has it?
31:23
It, well, he's gotten, what? He's gotten two wins? I think two wins, but he, really the consistency with him has been the tough part.
31:29
It, yeah, it's been every time you're kind of betting him, you're hoping to catch him at the right kind of moment.
31:34
A- and I think what does help if you're from a, from a betting side of things, Ludvig does fit certain courses better than others. He's a bomber off the tee.
31:43
You're gonna look at, uh, at, more at courses that benefit that. Not as much this week w- uh, when we get down to these. How'd you end up betting this?
31:52
Well, I was hoping you were gonna ask me about the next guy, 'cause Russell Hen- Oh, okay. Russell Henley. Russell Henley. There you go. [laughs] I can just go down the list.
31:57
What do you think about Russell Henley, Kelly? I was hoping that's where you'd hit, that we'd stop there- Okay... and then roll on. Henley, I think this is fascinating.
32:04
A, a lot of my bets this week, and look, beginning of the season I treat very differently than when we're in mid-season.
32:09
Uh, much like Gil with tennis, we're waiting for data to kind of build up, and that's really where we're able to sink in a lot of our money in these tournaments, and where we're looking, uh, to sink in a lot of our money.
32:18
But the, early in the season, I thought, look, looking book to book and seeing different odds this week, I can't even really remember a, a recent year where I saw such different odds out there- Really?...
32:30
from book to book. And y- of course, at the beginning of the season, a little bit more expected. They're gonna be a little bit more in line, uh, you know, a few months down the road.
32:38
But man, there was guys I saw wildly different numbers. And Russell Henley I think is just fascinating to compare to just a week ago. A week ago he was the 12 to 1 favorite at the Sony Open, right?
32:48
You have Scottie Scheffler and a lot of other talented golfers in this mix, uh, i- in this tournament this week, but, like, you've got Ben Griffin, you've got several guys that are in front of him, and Russell Henley did not play bad last week, Gil.
33:01
Like, it's kind of head-scratching. He t- finished T19, and you're finding him mid-20s. I was able to get him at 27 to 1. He was a pretty easy add for me this week.
33:10
I think there's a, there's a lot of trends you'll hear for the Amer- American Express. You're looking for guys that have played over in Hawaii.
33:16
That wasn't exactly a huge focus for me this week, just because you have one less Hawaii event now. It's only the Sony Open. We didn't play the Century. Um- What a gorgeous course. Look at that. Yeah, it really is.
33:26
Um, so you, you have that going on. You got some of these guys playing in TGL, so I'm not as focused on what you've done, you know, the past week or two.
33:34
But it do- it is a little comforting to know a guy that has teed it up, uh, just a week ago, and you can kind of see what, uh, what he did.
33:41
He lost off the tee last week, Henley did, but he was great with his irons on approach stats. Gr- gained with the putter.
33:47
So going to a course that's very scoreable, and I do want to bring up certain, b- circle back to something Sia brought up. This is not a Scheffler week for me at all, Gil.
33:55
This, the courses, this is a three-course rotation. It's a pro-am. It is designed to let the average Joe be able to play golf and score.
34:05
This is a very easy, ver- a very eas- easy course conditions that these guys are going to play in this week, from the weather to the course themselves. It's very simple.
34:13
Where you want to bet guys like Scheffler at are the tough ones, where there's a separation between the talent itself, where really this is a tournament that we've seen long shots win most years.
34:24
I, I, I think it's the second-longest average odds that you get from the winner in this group. So it's pretty fascinating. I think if you're betting first round leader stuff, be careful. It will be course dependent.
34:33
They will play one of three courses the first three rounds. Then they will have a cut to the top 65, and they get the pro-ams out of the way, and they'll play that on Sunday, uh, over at the stadium course. Okay.
34:43
So be careful with that. Get your bets after the break? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, we'll do that. No problem. By the way, we were showing that course. It's beautiful. Gorgeous.
34:49
Where do you stand on homes right on a golf course? Would you, would you purchase? Would you like to live on a, on a fairway? Yeah, I mean, if I was golfing all the time, sure.
34:58
I would always wonder if a ball's gonna crack my window. Oh, yeah. Seen that before. 'Cause I've seen me play- Yeah, man... and I know, and I know it's possible. I've lived in a few houses.
35:06
Kelly's golf place, and all our place, on the other side. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:10
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:29
Well, Kelly, we've done it again. [laughs] What have we done? Well, another show in the books. Almost. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
35:37
KFlow, CapeLorenz1, talking about the, uh, uh, from earlier in the show, says, "Great mini-rant memory lane trip on Bonds, and I wholeheartedly agree.
35:46
Bud Selig presided over baseball, turned a bli- a blind eye, and he's in. How freaking insane is that? Induct Bonds, Clemens, Palmero, Manny, A-Rod, Sosa, Sheffield. Put Rose in as well.
35:56
Make it a wing, put a plaque, whatever. But excluding them, not knowing how many non Hall of Fame worthy pitchers were also potentially using, is completely asinine."
36:04
I've excluded McGuire, because I'm just not convinced he's a Hall of Famer, but let's make it a merit-based discussion. This group of electors is going to put Chase Utley in the Hall of Fame in the next couple of years.
36:13
He, of 1,885 career hits, no MVPs, no Gold Gloves, just five to six very good years where he topped out at seventh in the MVP race. Lou Whitaker was better than Utley, and he's still not in. It's quite a tweet.
36:27
It's a fantastic tweet, and I believe all of it. The people they put in makes it even worse. You know what, uh, you know what I was thinking today for the first time as I was listening to that? We watched these players.
36:39
You cannot fool us. Yeah. The, uh, it really, it really feels absurd now that we live in the era of, like, transfer portal, NIL money, point shaving all the [laughs] time. Like, I don't- Yes...
36:55
all these stories we read these days, it's like, really? Kelly has a great point. I don't know, do we care? They- Like, who cares? Think about they took Reggie Bush's Heisman away. Yes.
37:03
Oh, that's hilarious now, isn't it? It's hilarious. It's ridiculous. Uh, the, the moral grandstanding. Right, yes. Yeah.
37:11
Like, I don't- we're talking about something- Like I said in that clip from four years ago, we are merely stewards of these institutions.
37:18
Let us not have the arrogance to act like we should determine who other generations beyond us in the future get to even see or know about in this building. Stop it.
37:29
Fairway Fred, about my, uh, comment on my question to you about would you buy a house on a golf course. He says, "Never live on the right side of the golf hole. 85 to 90% slice." It's a good call. It's a good call.
37:40
Stat Logic Sports, as far as the aging, "At some point we all start aging in dog years. Have Fezzik do the math on when the tipping point is if you look 10 years younger when you're 35 or 40." Oh, yeah.
37:52
Catches up with you. Old Guy Get Off My Lawn says, "Living on a golf course sucks. The perks hit their ball in your yard, drive up to it on their cart, and hit the ball despite it being out of bounds.
38:03
I would sit on the porch and take the balls as soon as they hit them. Get the hell off my lawn." That's a- Like, I-... that's a literal get off my lawn... I was talking about this during the break.
38:10
Like, don't you have to be aware this is a possible situation or problem when you buy the house? Yes. You know what you're getting into. Thanks, Gil. Justin Mainprize, "I lived on a course and was a member.
38:22
It's great because you take the commute process out of golf being so close. If you're buying, definitely pre-scout the house and play the course so you know you're not in the line of fire."
38:31
Oh, you're always in the line of fire when I'm out there, Justin. I'll tell you the one that I- That's what I'd be worried about... the one that I've noticed recently is I will never move again without spending
38:42
a solid 20 minutes, Gil, walking around the entire place with my cell phone up just like an idiot, like in 2000, just trying to see what the signal's like. Oh, yeah.
38:51
Have you ever gone into, like, a friend's place or something and they don't have any signal in their house? Yeah. Or it's like you gotta walk to this half of the house to get a si- I'm like, it's crazy.
38:59
I wanna, I wanna just express how, how comfortable you've become. W- we are, we are so comfortable that we are, we are rarely aware that we're even on air, that you were typing while talking for two sentences there.
39:10
You were like, "Yeah, so another thing I was talking about, Gil, was..." [laughs] That's how comfortable you are. I was trying to get a, I was getting a bet in. Oh, God. That's phenomenal.
39:18
What did, what was it else off air that you said you wanted to bring up on air? The crazy NBA injury report changing is not fun.
39:23
They, they used to be able to count on this at certain times, and it's the every 15 minutes now they're forced to release da- release a report, which makes- This is what, this is what you wanted to bring up?
39:31
Uh, not really. Okay. But I'm now bringing it up- Yeah. Okay... 'cause Cade Cunningham just got d- uh, downgraded for tonight.
39:36
I already bet the under in that game, and I was rushing to bet a little more of it now that he got downgraded.
39:41
Um, no, what I was gonna bring up as I was watch- I don't know how much Monday before the national championship game you watched of, like, the buildup shows. Oh. Oh, I watched. Okay. I, I, I- I didn't bring this up...
39:51
I know where you're going. Like, I have seen this a couple times now and it's hilarious. I noticed this when I went to the Ludacris show here in town a couple year, uh, like a year or two ago now. But then- Luda...
40:02
but then Pitbull, it's really funny that these guys who, like, their biggest songs are, are, are collaborations, right? And, like- Yeah... they're not the biggest voice on the song. That's right.
40:13
And it's really funny to see them perform them in concerts. And, like, they just, like, jump in when it's their time. [laughs] It's like it's just playing in the background. You know what I'm talking about?
40:23
Have you seen these? I did not see that. What I was, what I would, found noteworthy on the pregame was Desmond Howard letting us know that he lived in Miami maybe five times. Like, we get, we get it, Desmond.
40:34
[laughs] We get it. You live there. Let's go. I see you're on the Canes.
40:38
By the way, every one of the pregame guys on ESPN picked the Canes to win that, with the exception of Pat McAfee, who of course predictably went Hoosiers.
40:47
Maybe we should've known then that that's how it would result in that one. Uh, okay, here are the bets. Oh, wait, you have to give your golf bets first. Oh, yeah, golf bets real quick. Yeah. Start there.
40:55
Um, yeah, we're running out of time. Sorry, Danny. Uh, okay, outrights for me, and more to come. Long shots we're recording here in about two hours, so I know I've got a lot of tweets about that.
41:03
Don't worry, Wes had to go see Indiana. We'll be back on Tuesdays going forward, okay? We get, we had to give Wes some time. I'm on Henley, Fitzpatrick, Berger, Norrin, and Kirk. Kirk I bet last week. He missed the cut.
41:14
Gil, I bet him at, like, 50 to 1 or something last week. He's 175 to 1. I was like, man, that's a big number. Alex Norrin played some great golf in the fall, a couple wins.
41:24
He was a guy that I saw listed anywhere from, like, 40 to 70 to 1. So I, I was able to jump in at 65.
41:31
Berger's all over the place this week after, you know, I think some solid excitement for him heading into the season, and he finished T6 last week, so a good finish by him. I, I saw him as low as 35. I got him at 62.
41:42
It's a lot of numbers that I'm betting this week. Fitzpatrick's a guy, like Scheffler, that usually I like to play in tougher events as well, but he's a great putter. You're getting it 45 to 1.
41:51
This is gonna be a birdie, birdie fest. I, I like that number for him wh- where I think he can go out there and make a bunch of birdies.
41:58
Christian Kirk plays, uh, wide receiver for the Texans, loses, and is gonna jump right in this golf tournament, and you're betting him, 175 to 1. Pretty impressive, right? Yeah. Pretty good. Yeah.
42:04
Not since Hunter Renfrow have we seen this kind of thing happen. [laughs] We've never, have never, we've never made that Chris Kirk joke before. No, never. Have we? Or I, you know- No, we haven't. I've never heard it.
42:13
That's what I was gonna say. I've never heard it. All right. Just curious. That's it. Those are just the outrights. Well, yeah, just out- outrights, and I'll be adding some- All right...
42:18
I mean, uh, top fives I kind of blend those all with. All right. Uh, I am on the Broncos once again, plus 5 and a half versus the Patriots. Bet it Monday morning. Um, it's kind of a no-brainer bet for me.
42:29
It's just like, yeah, I'll, uh... Feels like, uh, what did I say about my am- my Miami hedge or trying to hit the middle at the plus 8 and a half in the national championship game?
42:37
Which by the way, I am still reveling in. I shouldn't downplay it. That was great. Um, it just felt like the responsible thing to do.
42:43
Broncos plus 5 and a half feels like the responsible thing to do Uh, my Australian Open bets, once again, we are halfway through the second round. They're all still intact.
42:50
We'll find out if they're all intact after today. Jessie Pegula to win, Naomi Osaka to win, and Iga to win. Uh, three plays on the ladies side at 31 to 1 odds, 19 to 1, and 525 respectively.
43:01
Also to win quarters, Lorenzo Musetti to win the third quarter at plus 650. He's taking on, uh, his countrymate Lorenzo Sonego today. And then Jessie Pegula to win the third quarter at four to one.
43:14
Hopefully she's a little less, uh, angry than her father when playing today. Oh, yeah, hopefully. Hopefully she can keep it intact. Hopefully she's not distracted by that press conference.
43:21
That's right, may- maybe she won't s- write Keyon Coleman on the, on the camera after she wins. [laughs] That'd be great.
43:26
[laughs] Uh, and then Jannik Sinner to win three Grand Slams this year, plus 450, Iga to win two Grand Slams.
43:31
We'll throw that up as long as the Australian Open is going up, and we won't put it back up again until the next Slam. But Iga to win two at plus 350. You, sir? Yeah, one NBA play for me tonight.
43:42
P- uh, Pistons, Pelicans under. Wherever you fi- find it, that has been on the move all, all morning here. Got bet up overnight. Still can't get over that under hitting yesterday. Oh, it was crazy. Yeah.
43:51
And I was on, I was on the, I was on the side, too. I had no business winning either one of those. Either one. Yeah. Yeah. Good on you.
43:57
P- I paid for it, uh, later in the night with the Kings, so, um, yeah, get, uh, in on that under reminder. We talked about this past couple days. Blazers over 39 and a half, uh, wins.
44:06
They don't play again 'til tomorrow night, so figured I'd leave it on there. Uh, and then NFL this week for me, Rams, Seahawks under 47 and a half. Got the Seahawks six to one to win the NFC.
44:15
I think I'm just riding with it, Gil. Uh, and then Rams with the look ahead over the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Hypothetical. Yep.
44:24
Rams minus three versus the Patriots, thinking being again that the Rams, in beating the Seahawks, will get a bump- Mm-hmm... whereas the Patriots in beating the Broncos might not. Mm-hmm. Will Hill was on earlier.
44:34
He's on the Broncos plus five and a half versus the Patriots. He's also on the Rams plus two and a half at the Seahawks. Dog and dog for Will in the championship games.
44:41
And then tonight in college basketball, he's taking the Longhorns plus the point, seven and a half of them, at Kentucky. Good game in college hoops tonight. Greg Peterson's Fab Five. Boy, it seems like a long time ago.
44:52
Richmond, two point favorites against Rhode Island. Tulsa laying the five and a half versus Memphis. He is taking the one and a half on West Virginia, taking the Mountaineers plus the points versus Arizona State.
45:02
Then a couple unders, Virginia Tech, Syracuse under 150 and a half, and also at the same number, under 150 and a half on Washington and undefeated Nebraska. Wow, when did you get to say that?
45:13
On the heels of undefeated Indiana in football, basketball undefeated Nebraska. Really? What is happening in this world? Wow. Siena Jad's Best Bets, he's on the Rams plus two and a half for the Seahawks.
45:22
And then a couple props, Stefon Diggs, longest reception under 18 and a half yards for the Patriots. And then, uh, Rhamondre Stevenson over 11 and a half rush attempts for the Pats as well. Uh, those are all of them.
45:36
And then Si's, uh, oh, Si's American Express bets, of course. All his outrights there you see on the screen, all five of them, for Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Jacob Bridgeman, Max Homa, and, uh, Sammy Valimaki.
45:47
Then he does, uh, first round leader bets on all three courses. Yeah. By the way, those outright bets are also qualified.
45:53
A couple of them are without Scheffler markets, and a couple of them, or a few of them are without Big Five- Mm-hmm... players markets. Those are all available, so check it out. Again, visa.com/picks for all of it.
46:04
Prop Points with John Hanson is next. Enjoy, from Visa and the Sports Betting Network.
A Numbers Game
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