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Jan 23, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 23, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | January 23, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. This is Kelly Bidlin to my left, to your right.
0:22
Kelly Bidlin, good morning to you, sir. What's up? Um, oh, it's not a good morning. Yeah. Not, not a good morning. Uh, we'll get to that momentarily. Uh, on the show today, Crack, Zack and Crack.
0:33
Uh, the Crack part, as you know, is Bill Krackomberger, uh, unscripted, hour number two. Whatever's on Bill's mind, we just riff.
0:41
And if you happen to be at Circa early, I hear he's doing an autograph ses- session for the next hour right in the sports book. Bill Krackomberger is chilling in the sports book right now.
0:49
[laughs] And we're not sure why. I thought I was dreaming when I first walked in. I'm like, "Why, why, why is Bill Krackomberger here?" He's raring to go, that's why he's here.
0:57
Uh, Joe Peta will join us to, of all things, uh, talk about the, uh, Eagles-Skins rivalry. Joe and I are, uh, friends. We'll test our friendship, is what's gonna happen- Mm-hmm... during that, uh, segment.
1:08
Joe's here for all kinds of thing, baseball analytics, golf analytics. Today it's just Philly-Washington stuff, uh, when Joe joins us on the run-up to the, uh, NFC Championship game.
1:18
NFL look-ahead lines, we talked about this yesterday briefly that we were gonna discuss today. What we will look at is the, the look-ahead lines for the potential Super Bowl match-ups vis-a-vis exacta prices.
1:32
How about that? So we'll l- we'll look at the look-ahead lines, and then we'll also discuss exacta prices. Yeah. And a great pricing note from our own John Brown, who works here at the network.
1:42
That's what I wanna talk about too- Yes... with the exactas, 'cause, uh, he pointed out something to me, uh, great the other day.
1:47
I wanna bring up, it's just a whole shop within your own shop thing that we bring up so often. Shop within your shop- Yep...
1:52
because there are gonna be other ways to bet it that might be more, um, more pro- more profitable. Mm-hmm. Also, you know, have more bang for your buck.
1:59
Also, we'll just look at those exactas and tell you mathematically based on... 'Cause exactas are essentially a three-team parlay at this point, right?
2:07
Who wins the NFC Championship, who wins the AFC Championship, and then who you have beating who, uh, whom, pardon me, in the Super Bowl itself.
2:14
Which of those prices are actually favorable to the bettor right now, which are not, based on, uh, the old parlay calculator at this point.
2:22
Uh, and NFL, uh, we'll talk, well, with Zach Cohen, obviously, the first part of the Zack and Crack team.
2:26
Zach, our Vsin, our Vsin senior editor, talking not only NFL with us, but also NBA and Australian Open, see if he has any bets moving forward. I will tell you who doesn't have any bets moving forward, that's me.
2:38
Uh, we out. Um, and I'm not just talking about 'cause we're out on, uh, Iga, but I'm just saying I think everything moving, at least tonight, right?
2:47
The, the men's semifinals and I believe the women's final are all priced correctly, which I differ a little bit with Drew on, 'cause Drew really likes Zverev tonight, and he, he came on the show earlier this week and already said he has a bet on Zverev, uh, as the dog here.
3:01
He thinks Zverev should be the, uh, the favorite against Novak Djokovic. I do not believe that. I believe it is properly priced. Has that number come down a bit, though? It is Djokovic minus 165, Zverev plus 135.
3:12
No, if anything, it's ticked up a little bit. It was, like, in the minus 150s when I saw it. Oh, really? Okay. Um, I don't know. Maybe it's right around where it was. But it hasn't, it hasn't moved.
3:19
I mean, it's not far off from where we checked the other day, but. Yeah.
3:20
So, so I have no, I have none moving forward, but it was all bet last night, and let me just say, the way that the, uh, time zones work, I didn't see any of the match that we lost on, which was the Badosa-Sabalenka match, which was in the dead of night here.
3:32
Yeah, that's like midnight our time, right? Yeah. Well, 12:30 even. Like, it's not even, you couldn't even try to stay up for it, uh, with our hours.
3:39
But in any case, I don't know if it's the big sister, little sister thing. I talked about this briefly. I, I briefly mentioned yesterday that they're best of friends, but Badosa just caves when she plays Sabalenka.
3:51
And, uh, so we don't get, we don't get Badosa home. We don't even get the over home as, uh, Sabalenka takes her out in straight sets.
3:58
So Sabalenka advances to the Australian Open final, trying to win her third consecutive Australian Open, uh, is, uh, is Aryna Sabalenka.
4:07
And then the, the thing that happened here just, I don't wanna say just before the show, but at least closer to showtime, which I only caught the very end of, Iga Świątek loses to Madison Keys in a third set tiebreaker.
4:21
In a slam, the third set tiebreaker goes to 10, and Keys beat her. Uh, Iga won the first set 7-5. Now, this is all me looking at the box score now for the first, for the first- Mm-hmm... yeah, 90% of this.
4:33
The second set, Iga didn't hold her serve once. That is less than ideal. Less than ideal. Suboptimal, as we like to say. And then in the third and final set, which was by all accounts a masterpiece- It was awesome.
4:46
I watched most of that. Yeah. Yeah, it was great. Iga had a match point at 6-5, 40-30, and got a little nervy. They were, they were trading nerviness back and forth.
4:59
Uh, this part I did see, and then it got to the tiebreaker. Iga had multiple mini breaks up in the tiebreaker, and then Keys got her at the end.
5:08
It, it was w- it was one of those sporting events, like, I'm watching, and yes, I'd only picked it up, like, a couple games into that f- into the third set, but, like, it was an amazing third set.
5:18
At no point was I really worried about Iga losing, though, until, okay, it's like you go to a tiebreaker, like, okay- The very, very end, yeah...
5:26
I gotta be, gotta be a little bit wor- more worried now, but I'm still not all that worried watching the tiebreaker, and then right when it gets to match point, I was like, "Okay, now I'm a little worried."
5:33
Congratulations if you had Maddie Keys in that. Congratulations if you had any Maddie Keys futures to begin with. Here's, uh, how I addressed it with, uh, Drew Dinsick on the Beating the Book Australian Open podcast.
5:46
Maddie Keys I think is a toss, but I, it's her, she's got, she's got that weird thing where in slams her numbers just look better for some reason. Like, when the ma- Yeah...
5:57
when the matches matter the most, she's a little bit better, uh, compared to just tour stuff.
6:03
There's a couple of players who are like that in women's and men's, and she's sort of the, kind of the quintessential example I would point to and be like Doubter in Adelaide, better in Melbourne, kind of a, kind of a deal.
6:15
But, uh, yeah, I, I, I don't think she could swing seven matches here. Well, she swung six out of seven. Mm-hmm. She sung s- she swung six out of seven.
6:24
Uh, by the way, I started, that was sort of a Columbo thing, 'cause we were going through players. Yeah. And I was like, um, "What do you think about... W- well," I was like, "Oh, random, what about Maddie Keys?" Right?
6:32
And then that was the response to that. Um, thanks for cutting that part off, guys, by the way. Appreciate that.
6:37
Um, [laughs] but that, that was the, uh, that was the sort of impetus for that, where it's sorta like she is not... It wasn't like a Marketa Vondrousova Wimbledon thing, where we didn't mention her at all, right? Mm-hmm.
6:48
Marketa Vondrousova winning Wimbledon last year was like, what was that? So we were aware. Didn't, now did either of us bet on Maddie Keys in any way? No, we did not. So there you go. Uh, so it's Maddie Keys.
7:00
Uh, Sabalenka is a minus 400 favorite. That is accurately priced to me.
7:05
By the way, so is Iga at minus 667 when you're looking at actual numbers, but Maddie Keys does this thing where she has now reached her second slam final in her career.
7:14
She reached a final back in, uh, I believe it was 2017 in the US Open when she lost to her friend, Sloane Stephens. So, uh, down goes Iga. Yeah, sorry, man. That's tough. There it is. That was, that was tough.
7:25
That was a, that was a great match. Keys looked like she was playing one of the matches of her life when I, when I was watching that. She looked great. She can al- she always has it in her. Her A game is always there.
7:33
Um- She's taking money right now, too. Wait, what did I text you the opener on that was? Sabalenka minus 400, Keys plus 300. It is down to Sabalenka minus 330, Keys plus 250 for the final.
7:42
Yeah, I mean, that's not a huge move, but yeah, I, I would imagine that would happen. Um, so there you go. Congratulations to all who had Maddie Keys. Iga goes down. Oh, brutal.
7:53
Uh, okay, real quick, because we talked about this yesterday. Number one draft pick. We were here, and we were saying Cam Ward is your favorite at minus 190, followed by Shedeur Sanders to go number one.
8:04
Remember, the Tennessee Titans holding the number one pick in the NFL Draft. And then, you know, far away was Travis Hunter in the number three hole. And Mel Kiper, that was all, you know, sort of Mel Kiper induced.
8:15
He had his mock draft where he had Cam Ward going number one to Tennessee, had Travis Hunter going number two to the Cleveland Browns, and then he had Shedeur Sanders going number three to the New York Giants.
8:26
And so Cam Ward, the move on Cam Ward, uh, followed. Cam Ward got to minus 190.
8:32
Now, yesterday, Titans GM, so this, of course, it happens right after the show, Titans GM comes out, and he was asked about, you know, "Hey, what are you, what are you doing with the, uh, what are you doing with the first pick in the draft?"
8:45
Sort of quote. We heard from two different guys, by the way. Oh, but- Pre- president of football operations and then also the GM yesterday. Well, I'll tell you what the GM's quote was.
8:53
Quote, "We won't pass on a generational talent with the first pick in the NFL Draft," unquote. That is complete code for Travis Hunter, generational talent.
9:07
'Cause I don't, I don't think you're talking about Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, at least I don't think so. Travis Hunter, of course, playing both sides of the ball. That is code for Travis Hunter.
9:14
And so because of that quote largely, massive movement, where now Cam Ward is down to plus 105. Still the favorite, still the short shot anyway, but remember he was minus 190 yesterday.
9:26
It doesn't take huge amounts to move this, um, as opposed to, say, at a, a NFC Championship game this weekend or an AFC Championship. But nonetheless, Cam Ward at plus 105.
9:36
Travis Hunter now in the two hole at plus 155 after that comment. Shedeur at plus 360. Number three, four, fi- four and five remain the same, Abdul Carter and Tedarrell McMillan- Okay... from, from yesterday.
9:48
So trying to f- confirm a couple of these things. Okay, believe it was the Chad Brinker, the president of football operations, that said that quote. The GM said later- That's incorrect.
9:56
I have Morganzi right here in front of me. "We won't pass on a generational talent with the first pick in the NFL Draft." Okay, okay. Yeah. So then he also said they're open to trading back as well.
10:03
So that was also notable. I, I mean, if you're- That is notable... if you're considering any of these quarterbacks, you really think one of them's gonna go number one, gotta take that into account.
10:11
I guess the only other thing that I noticed with the odds, Gil, and, okay, the generational talent thing, right? I think, like you said, I think we all think Travis Hunter right away.
10:20
There's another guy on that board that did d- get down into single digits in Abdul Carter.
10:25
And I don't know, are you possibly talking about a pass rusher that you think could be all that good with a, with a generational talent? But is somebody trading up to number one for Abdul Carter? I don't know.
10:36
I don't know. But I'm just saying tho- those odds moved as well. Yeah. The big one being Travis Hunter, though, based on that, on those comments from the Titans brass. The, the trade possibility is always there.
10:46
By the way, when you get into trades, this is the problem with all this, mock drafts, any mock draft that puts in trades, I just immediately stop paying attention. 'Cause like there's just too- Yeah, I, it's tough.
10:55
Yeah... how do you know? And if there is going to be a trade at number one, then all of our speculation is just on steroids at that point, 'cause you have no idea what a team is thinking.
11:05
Um, but if Tennessee were to hold it now, that's where the sort of vague part comes in now after that kind of banter from the front office, which is like, "Oh, you're not gonna pass on a generational talent?
11:18
Does that mean you're n- does that mean you're keeping Will Levis and Mason Rudolph as your guys heading into next year? Is that what we're doing?" I, I mean, at least Levis, they said they were open to...
11:28
Yeah, they were gonna look around, quarterback needed to be addressed, but Levis could be back and competing for a job. Haven't we seen enough? I would think so, but- Haven't we seen enough of ill-advised Billy Levis?
11:40
Anyway, Cam Ward plus 105, Travis Hunter now number two at plus 155. Zach Cohen, tennis, NBA, football next right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
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12:05
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12:20
That's S-E-W-E-L-L-S-B-B-Q-sauce.com Flavor this good is just a click away. We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the feedback. John Balduzzi, "Growing tennis fan here mainly 'cause of you.
12:33
One observation, ever notice the moment a match turns into trouble, Iga shuts down? It's almost mental. When it went 8-8 in tiebreaker, she had no chance."
12:42
Uh, John, I am with you on the overall sentiment, that whatever's going on between... We, we said this at, at the Australian Open podcast too. Her, whatever's going on with her is between the ears, for sure.
12:54
Um, but this was different. This was a new coach, and so she was playing out of her mind up until this match. So you're right, when it got nervy, they both got nervy, but he got a little, just that much more nervy.
13:06
So I, I'm with you on the overall sentiment there, um, that there is absolutely a thing happening. Ice Cold Gambler, "Can't wait to hear what Crack Man has to talk about today on the Numbers Game with Gil.
13:16
Never miss a Thursday because you never know what they will talk about. Kelly, I can't watch golf anymore without Country Club and running through my brain." Good. Good. It's working.
13:25
Phil PMT703, "Gil, I've listened to Northern Virginia for 30-plus years," or, "I've lived in Northern Virginia for 30-plus years." I was gonna say, have we been on for that long? Yeah.
13:33
Uh, "And it's still hard to imagine Daniel Snyder isn't anywhere near this team. I'm so happy for all my friends that are still fans and stuck it out.
13:39
If nothing else, I'm rooting for WFT, WFT, because the fans deserve the ultimate palate cleanser." Remember the old WFT? I kind of miss Washington Football Team. Oh, me too. I, let's see.
13:49
Nemesis Enforcer, "They closed the roof in the second set, threw Iga off her game. Keys played well." Well, that's not an excuse, but I hear you.
13:57
Uh, Ice Cold Gambler also adds, "At Circa early, Crack, there must be a slot machine that's ready to pay out, trying to get an early jackpot." No, he was just doing, uh, pa- he was doing what?
14:05
Paperwork he said or something. Yeah. Yeah. We didn't see any- Just, just hanging by the book... we didn't see any papers. We didn't see any papers, [laughs] but, but we also didn't see him at a slot machine. We did not.
14:14
It's, it's a fence, yeah. [laughs] Somewhere in between. Chris Hauser, "Who you got on this prop I just made up? Will the Super Bowl matchup be a rematch from a prior year, Eagles versus Chiefs or Redskins versus Bills?"
14:25
He says, "Yes -130, no +110." Well, we'd have to run the numbers on that, but we will get to exactas and, uh, hypothetical lines here momentarily. We actually will look at the math.
14:34
Oh, and then Gabe Owners puts out, he says, "NFL Awards finalists have been solidified. Have you seen this this morning?" We gotta, we gotta go through these. I have, yes. Final thoughts, any further insight you've seen?
14:44
Uh, just give us the Comeback Player of the Year ones if you would, Kelly. [laughs] Or you don't, do you have them? Is it... Yeah, I got them. Uh, this is, I've got them all in front of me.
14:50
I honestly, I think, so five finalists for every award. I don't, off my initial scan, I'm not really sure any of them you'd be like, "Oh, wow," like someone got left out or anything. But, uh, comeback, Joe Burrow,
15:02
number one. Just, I don't, you know, just list- In no particular order... listed number one. Yeah. In no particular order, Gil, but you know. Is, is it alphabetical perhaps, Kelly? Or no? [laughs] That's, I think it is.
15:12
[laughs] Once again- Joe-... we've cracked the code... [laughs] it definitely is now that I'm looking at the other awards. Okay. Yeah. Joe Burrow, Sam Darnold, J.K. Dobbins, Christian Gonzalez, and DeMar Hamlin.
15:24
Give me that second one again. Who was the second name? Sam Darnold. That's what I thought you said. Or, uh, what was, uh, what was, uh, JVD? Samuel Richard Darnold or whatever his- Yeah... whatever his full name was.
15:35
[laughs] Uh-huh. Okay. So no su- no real surprise 'cause we knew the Darnold thing was coming down the pipeline, right? Yeah. A- and I mean, look, I guess- Yeah... Ha- Hamlin too, right?
15:43
But D- Dobbins, I think we expected all f- all of those four. I know- Does, does-... if you're holding a Christian Gonzalez ticket, I guess you made it in... does Hamlin being in there give you a little bit of a feel?
15:53
Are you like, "Wait a minute"? I don't know. I have no idea. I don't know either. I have no idea. Obviously- I don't know either... all I know is I'm gonna be furious no matter the result here.
16:01
Are, do we have any sense of whether these finalists are supposedly based on the voting? Or are they just- No, yeah. Yeah... or do they just- It should be. It should be- It should be...
16:10
the five, yeah, it should be the five- Okay, so that means-... biggest vote-getters... that means he got some votes is what we're- Yes... okay.
16:16
Well, I think that might surprise even some people that he actually got some votes. I mean, I guess I don't know that for sure, but I would think that's how finalists work, right? This is wh- this is why I ask.
16:24
I bring it up because I would think that's how it works. Or does the NFL take poetic license- Right... and be like, "Oh, let's just throw in DeMar Hamlin-" And just throw in five exciting names... just to make...
16:33
By the way, these will all get announced not next week. They should do this next week, but they don't do it next week. They do it the week of the Super Bowl. That's when these will be announced.
16:42
Uh, Zach Cohen joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. He's our recent senior editor. Uh, you can find all his stuff at vsin.com, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
16:50
Uh, you are just as, uh, likely to see him writing about the NFL, the NBA, the Australian Open. Let's just start there. Were you, uh, were you on Madi Keys? I'm guessing not. I wasn't.
17:02
I, I had the Iga futures like you, so I just didn't touch that match. Uh, it was a really fun one one to watch, though.
17:07
I think that, you know, one of the, uh, the tweets that you got, you know, hit it on the head a little bit, that the, the closed roof definitely helps Keys quite a bit.
17:15
It becomes a little bit of a slugger's paradise, and, you know, I, I think that s- uh, Iga's just had trouble with really quick conditions in the past.
17:22
This tournament has played very slow up to this point, so kinda bad timing with the roof closing.
17:26
Obviously, she had chances to win that match and, you know, if her mental was a little stronger, she probably would've come through, but man, Keys was, was so good in the big moments and especially in those two games where she went down love-40, and I, I would really like to see her beat Sabalenka.
17:39
I'll definitely grabbing a piece of her against Sabalenka just because of the amount I've lost on her i- [laughs] to, um, with, on the futures in the past.
17:46
I'm not going to lose, uh, you know, not win anything if she wins a slam. Yeah, James Scott, by the way, uh, tweets. He says, "They closed the roof midway through the first set.
17:54
Iga was up 5-2," [clears throat] pardon me, "in that set, ending up winning 7-5. Does closing a roof help Keys? You heard what Zach just said. It's also not an excuse to lose the match, though." Right.
18:03
Um, and then, uh, by the way, Rat City Titans Insider was very upset with our Le- Billy Levy's, uh, hate or Will Levis hate.
18:10
He says, "I'll take the under two and a half slams for Iga, excluding Roland Garros, for the rest of her career." [laughs] I'm like, "Okay, you take the under. We'll see what happens."
18:18
[laughs] By the way, I'll take the under on, on the Titans, just whatever the line is. [laughs] Um, all right, do you have anything?
18:24
So you're gonna, you're gonna play a little Keys Do you have anything in the men's semis? Yes. Um, so in the Shelton-Cinner match, I'm going over zero and a half tiebreakers, which I got at minus 138.
18:36
Shelton has played at least one tiebreaker in his last 13 matches. Uh, in that inc- you know, also, I- he's played Cinner five times. All of those five matches have had at least one tiebreaker.
18:46
I think that his style of play, just being, you know, an elite server and a really bad returner, just makes r- very likely that we will see at least a tiebreaker, and that was ultimately where I landed with that match because, because of the nature of there being a tiebreaker or potentially being a tiebreaker, it's hard to play Cinner straight sets, and it's also hard to take Shelton, you know, to win a set, just 'cause those, those could go either way once you get there, but I do feel pretty good about there being at least one.
19:09
I like that. I like that. Ben Shelton, good, good to get to a tiebreaker, for sure. Um, nothing with Novak or Zverev? So I have a Novak future from th- the, the start of this tournament.
19:20
I, I remember telling you I did not feel good about that once I saw the draw, but now all of a sudden it's definitely feeling very, very live. So I'm not going to be touching that match myself.
19:28
If I were betting that match, I would be going with Zverev at the plus money odds. I just think that, I, the Novak injury was legitimate.
19:36
He, he looked really, really bad in that second set, and until those painkillers kicked in, he was not moving well. I think that a lot of people really wanted to crown that match as an epic. It was a pretty bad match.
19:47
Alcaraz played horribly and really fell apart, uh, between the ears. I think that Djokovic was injured, so he was swinging for winners every time he, you know, he had to.
19:56
I think Alcaraz kind of got sucked into doing the same 'cause he didn't know what to do playing against an injured opponent.
20:01
So I think that that was a really bad performance from Alcaraz, and I think Zverev's gonna be a little bit more likely to grind from the baseline and kind of like test those Djokovic legs out.
20:09
The Djokovic injury, though, I saw the best meme of, that, that describes this.
20:13
You, you see the original Willy Wonka where Gene Wilder looks like he's like sort of limping or whatever, and then he does the somersault- Yep... and all of a sudden he's dancing again? [laughs] That's Djokovic.
20:22
It's like- I also saw-... really? Are you hurt? Yeah. I also saw the call the cops, but not for me. Yeah. That, that, that, yeah, that. That's right.
20:27
That, he d- he does get better once he's hurt, especially historically at this tournament.
20:31
I just think that he said it in his press conference after the match that, you know, it takes the pressure off you and just kind of gives you a focus of what you need to do, and that's just hit big and hit your targets.
20:42
All right. What about the, uh, championship games in the NFL? Any plays on those two? Yeah, so I see it's moving against me, but I do like the Commanders with the points, whether that's six and a half or six.
20:52
Honestly, I would've played it at four.
20:54
I was very unimpressed with what we saw from Jalen Hurts last game, and I just can't really shake the feeling that, you know, the Commanders have the much better quarterback, the more aggressive head coach, and I know a lot of people really like this Philadelphia defense, and they have been very good at times throughout this season, but I just don't really trust Vic Fangio against a team that can throw the way that the Commanders can.
21:15
I really like Daniels to go over his player prop of, uh, 222 and a half passing yards. I put that on the website in my, in my write-up for the game. And yeah, I think that the Commanders are really live in this game.
21:26
I took the, uh, spread. I also sprinkled the money line. Okay. And then in the AFC, anything? Uh, haven't played it yet. I, I do think I'm gonna end up on the Bills. I, I hate myself.
21:37
I, I say I'm gonna hate myself, and I say I'm gonna, you know, back Kansas City when it comes time for the playoffs, and I still don't do it.
21:43
But I just feel like this Chiefs team, for the better part of two years now, has been a team that scores 19 to, like, 23 points every game, and I think that this Bills team is capable of scoring a lot more than that.
21:55
So I think that we are going to see Buffalo finally knock out Kansas City.
22:00
I, I, I think that Josh Allen has played very well in this, you know, series in the past, especially in the playoffs, and I think he's just had, you know, defensive shortcomings, and I think that he's finally has a group that can slow down a Kansas City team that I think is, you know, mediocre offensively.
22:14
NBA tonight, anything? Uh, so far I just have the Lakers. Uh, Lakers plus five. I'll also be sprinkling the money line. It's just a really bad spot for Boston.
22:24
They played a really close game against the Clippers last night, went to overtime against, you know, a really short-handed squad. I think they're gonna be very, very tired for this game.
22:31
And I'm also playing Wemby over four and a half blocks and steals in this game in Paris. Ooh, okay. Wemby over four and a half blocks in Paris from Zach Cohen. Zach, thank you so much. Appreciate it, man. Thanks, guys.
22:44
@BettingOnX for Zach on Twitter, by the way. Uh, hypothetical Super Bowl lines, exact as in the NFL. That's next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:08
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23:34
I remember you being more creative on the ANG stuff before. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Mm-hmm. I, I, I used to make up other examples, but- Yeah, mailing it in. I understand. You'll get there.
23:44
[laughs] Uh, we get tweets at me about- You'll get there. [laughs]... Cowboy7... Uh, what is this?
23:48
DCowboy, DCCowboy, uh, DCowboy777 at RDW says, "They announce the awards Super Bowl week because everyone's there for the game, and they get the NFL Honors TV show out of it."
23:58
Um, well, no, not everybody's there of the finalists, right? Not everybody. If they can lure them, yeah, you're right. But that wasn't my point. My point, RDW, was there's nothing going on the week after this one, right?
24:12
The, the, the whole, there's a... The two weeks are interminable. So to get to that second week, it just seems like an eternity. It would be great if they did sort of the opposite of baseball and moved it up.
24:23
Just, just my two cents. Uh, Primetime, Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo, dog. While commoding this AMI, I also was thinking about and missing the, uh, WTF Skins moniker." Uh, the WTF skins moniker.
24:34
I also love that Kelly will be furious at any result of Comeback Player vote result. [laughs] Angry, angry CC KMB is the best, Gerry. The best Yeah, it's, it's, it's infuriating. The, uh...
24:47
'Cause if Joe Burrow wins- K, Michael-... I'm gonna be mad I didn't bet more money K, Michael Biddler. What's the CC part? I don't know. I didn't see- Is that part of the Seinfeld reference there?
24:55
That was a K- K, Michael Biddler is the KMB. Um, let's go through some of those other... Well, first of all, let's read this. Is this... This doesn't clarify.
25:02
I thought this was gonna clarify it, but it doesn't Yeah, [laughs] what does, what does the CC mean? Um- I don't know, guys [laughs] Yeah. Finalists were determined through the AP's voting system. So, yeah. Okay.
25:11
So it is- So the votes... so it is based on votes, at least that's what they're telling us. We'll find out. Uh, w- they, they can't hide that because they do reveal what the votes were, so that's the case.
25:18
Finalists were determined through the AP's voting system, which was revamped in 2022 and asked voters to rank their top five picks for MVP and their top three for other awards.
25:27
[laughs] Except we now know that this top five for all the other awards- I was gonna say, I, uh, I was kind of hoping you didn't read the rest of that part- Uh-...
25:34
because, uh, yeah The winners will be announced at the w- at the 14th Annual NFL Honors ceremony on February 6th, which will air live at 9:00 PM Eastern on FOX and NFL Network and stream on NFL+.
25:45
So February 6, so three days before the Super Bowl, so Thursday night, February 6. I thought we had finally figured out that it was f- it was five now for every award, but- It's a moving target It's a moving target.
25:55
[laughs] Even the NFL on their own website is writing that. Uh, go, go through some of these. All right Who were the five MVPs? Finalists.
26:01
Uh, all right, I'm gonna start at where I [laughs] I'm gonna start with Coach of the Year, okay? Okay. I'll work my way down. All right.
26:05
Uh, Dan Campbell, uh, Kevin O'Connell, Sean Peyton, Dan Quinn, Andy Reid are your Coach of the Year finalists. Ooh, Andy, Andy Reid got in there. I like that. Yep. Defensive Rookie of the Year. Who didn't get in there?
26:17
Mike Tomlin didn't get in there? Well, he had a bad- See, that's what I was trying to think... he had a bad finish. He had a bad finish.
26:22
Those, I think those are the right ones I mean, we said there was, like, eight guys that could qual- so th- that might be the one award where you feel like somewhat- Yeah... one or two people got left out. Mm-hmm.
26:30
Defensive Rookie of the Year, Cooper DeJean, Brandon Fisk, Quinyon Mitchell, Chop Robinson, Jared Verse. Makes sense. Offensive Rookie of the Year, Brock Bowers, Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Bo Nix, Brian Thomas Jr.
26:41
Hmm, wonder who wins that one? [laughs] Offensive Player of the Year, Saquon Barkley, Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson. [sighs] So you do have two quarterbacks in there. Okay.
26:52
Defensive Player of the Year, Zach Baun, which is kind of interesting, Miles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, Pat, uh, Patrick Surtain, and T.J. Watt. Zach Baun deserves that. So,
27:03
uh, Ginkel did not get in, which w- w- was two of our, uh, t- two of us picked them for our award show. Who didn't get in? Van Ginkel from the, uh- Oh... from the Vikings. Who picked Van Ginkel? Myself and somebody else.
27:16
Oh. I wanna say Chris Fellica. I wanna say. Okay. Comeback Player of the Year, we already hit on that one. Burrow, Darnold, Dobbins, Christian Gonzalez, Damar Hamlin.
27:25
Uh, and then MVP, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson. Jared Goff is the fifth. I was wondering- Yeah... who was gonna be the fifth. Yeah. Okay.
27:34
Uh, Nemesis Enforcer tells us CC gotta be country club. S- country clubbing. Oh. So does Hoops by Hoots. Yeah, that would make sense. And Hoops by Hood says that. I think CC is country clubbing. Okay, um, exactas.
27:44
Four teams left, obviously, and there's eight different combinations of who can beat who in the Super Bowl. Uh, shall we look at the hypothetical lines first on these- Sure... before we get to the exactas?
27:56
So the hypothetical lines, these are courtesy of? Fanduel. Fanduel. Advocate Skirmish, as we used to call them. Chiefs to beat the Eagles, plus 330. Bills to beat the Eagles, plus 380.
28:08
Eagles to beat the Chiefs, four to one. Eagles to beat the Bills, plus 450. Now we get to the Commander's portion of the segment. Chiefs to beat Commanders, plus 950. Bills to beat Commanders, 10 to one.
28:21
Commanders to beat Chiefs, 15 to one. Commanders to beat Bills, 17 to one. Those are the exactas, so we started with the exactas. Yes. [laughs] Yes, yes, yes. Yeah. Those exactas. All right.
28:30
You wanna, you want hypothetical lines now? Well, yeah, let's do, let's do the hypothetical lines, and let's get back to these exactas. Okay. Let's, the hypothetical lines are
28:38
both the Bills and the Chiefs would be favored by four and a half over the Commodores, okay? The Eagles would be favored over, uh, the Bills and the Chiefs each by one and a half. All right?
28:52
The- What about the, what about the AFC over the NFC? Do we have those? Doop-a-doop-a-doo, doop, nope. No. This is all the Super Bowl. This is the possible match-ups. Oh, those are the match-ups. Yeah, yeah.
29:01
I'm looking for the ex... Oh, okay, those are the match-ups. Oh, right, right, I'm sorry. Those are the match-ups. I'm getting confused now myself. Okay. Yeah. So those are all the match-ups.
29:07
I put all the favorites on the right. Okay. So Bills, Chiefs, one-and-a-half point favorites over the Eagles. All right. So I, we botched all that or at least I, we went out of order.
29:13
But here's, okay, so here's the thing. So those are all the s- the hypothetical Super Bowl lines. If you... Now, those are courtesy of Fan- of Fanduel.
29:19
You can, you know, if you, you may disagree with them, but those are what they are. Anyway, to review, Bills and Chiefs, four-and-a-half point favorites both over the Commanders, if that ends up being the match-ups.
29:29
Eagles would be one-and-a-half point dogs, pardon me- Mm-hmm... uh, versus both the Bills and the Chiefs. Okay.
29:37
So then we go back to the exactas, and the, the object here, let's just do mathematically, back to the exactas. Would you want to bet, given those lines, right?
29:47
Given those lines, we can convert those, there's a little bit of math here, but not much. We can convert those spreads into money lines, right? You do a little money line conversion on the, on the hypotheticals.
29:59
You already know what the money lines are for this weekend, and so essentially for the exactas, what you're doing is hitting a three-team parlay. You're hitting a three-leg parlay.
30:09
You're obviously getting the NFC Championship and AFC Championship winners, and the Super Bowl winner. Three-leg money line parlay.
30:17
And so, Kelly, based on these, um, let's just, if, if I can just do it just from the mathematical sense, then we'll just get your opinion on these. Um, but right now the, let's start from the top.
30:30
Chiefs to beat Eagles plus 330. That ought to be just the, the, the, the true value based on those hypotheticals Is about 340, so you're just getting dinged a little bit on that one.
30:44
Um, the Bills to beat the Eagles at plus 380, that ought to be 393, plus 393. You're, you're saying in comparison to, like, a money line rollover situation?
30:56
Not a m- I, I'm saying what the true math ought to be by the money lines, by a- Gotcha... three-leg money line parlay, the true math, right? Chiefs to beat Eagles, you're getting plus 330.
31:04
They're just docking you a small amount. Mm. Should be plus 341. Bills to beat Eagles, you're getting plus 380. It should be plus 393. Now, Eagles to beat Chiefs, which is four to one,
31:15
you're actually getting a little value on that, because by my math and the hypothetical lines, that ought to be about plus 393. So Eagles to beat Chiefs, just put sort of a, like, a mental check mark- Yeah...
31:27
in your mind by that one. And I've got a note about this as well too afterward. Uh, Eagles to beat Bills is ex- almost exactly what it should be. It's plus 450.
31:35
It's really plus 449, so that's, that's kind of right on the number. You're not really getting value. These next two are where the value is, mathematically.
31:44
The Commanders' losses, Chiefs to beat Commanders, you're getting plus 950. Bills to beat Commanders, you're getting 10 to 1. I have them priced at th- those should be plus 808 and plus 913.
31:59
So at plus 950 and 10 to 1, those act- actually represent a little bit of value at those prices, and based on the hypothetical lines. Again, I'm just doing it by the hypothetical lines.
32:10
Commanders to beat Chiefs, Commanders to beat Bills, you're actually getting a little bit of the worst of that, as would be, as what you would expect. Instead of 15 to 1, that's actually, like, kind of 16.64 to 1.
32:19
And instead of the 17 to 1 on Commanders to Bills, it's actually 18.68 to 1. So the value is really on the two to beat the Commanders Super Bowl exactas based on that. I like it. I, I, that's a great breakdown.
32:34
That's the way you should be looking at these things.
32:36
I, I was interested that the Eagles one you mentioned right away, because, uh, John Brown, who does great work here, uh, at the network behind the scenes, he, he texted me about this yesterday, uh, just looking at what the S- Circa exacta numbers were.
32:48
Yep. And it was just a shop within the same shop situation, right? Super Bowl odds are up there, and then exactas are up there, and we're down to the point of the season where you've got two games this weekend, right?
32:58
And then we're, then we're this, at the Super Bowl already. So it's two, it's just two wins.
33:02
But, and but keep in mind, and here's the thing, obviously the way that these games go will affect what those hypothetical lines end up being. Absolutely.
33:09
So we're, I'm just doing that exercise based on what those static hypothetical Super Bowl lines are. Correct, correct. Yeah. Which is the best you can do right now. Yeah. But yeah, absolutely, that, that stuff will move.
33:18
Yeah.
33:18
Um, but his po- his point was, okay, if you take Eagles to beat the Bills and Eagles to, uh, Eagles to beat the Chiefs, at least at Circa and at DraftKings, you're getting better nu- you'd get a better number than what the Eagles are listed just to win- Yeah...
33:30
the Super Bowl right now. This is, this is the thing. All of this is shop from book to book, shop within books. Both of those things are valid.
33:37
But anyway, that's just a little brief look at the, uh, the math on those Super Bowl exactas, at least at FanDuel. Joe Peta on the Eagles and Skins next.
33:45
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34:33
Uh, Shooter McGamblin on Twitter, "Are there any books that offer a yes/no on will there be a roughing the passer penalty in the Bills-Chiefs game?" That is typically reserved for the Super Bowl, but I would shop around.
34:44
He continues, "Or is that only a Super Bowl prop?" There you go. Sorry about that, Shooter. I, uh, I preempted you. Nothing on DK says, "I don't mind a bet on the refs making an overcorrection."
34:53
Yeah, that's y- that's always a Super Bowl one, right, of the hundreds of Super Bowl props. Um, I thought we sort of started to bleed into championship games.
35:01
I, I was gonna say, there's hundreds up for the championship game. Yeah. But if he said he checked all of DraftKings and it's not up, then I would tend to believe it's probably not one up, uh, at most spo- spots.
35:11
Buddhist Man offering also, "Don't forget when calculating Super Bowl exactas that there is usually more value on the favorite to win outright as the tourists come in and deflate the underdog, underdog money line price."
35:21
Actually, uh, Buddhist, it's the other way around.
35:24
What they do for the Super Bowl, we talk about this every year, for whatever reason, uh, bettors tend, during the regular season, they bet dogs plus the points, but in the Super Bowl, they usually go dog on the money line, and what it does is mute the favorite money line price for the Super Bowl.
35:41
So it's a, it's a different thing actually during the Super Bowl. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, this is a little something different that we're doing right now, but, uh, basically it's, uh, testing one's friendship.
35:50
Joe Peta, who, uh, is the author of the book Trading Bases and, uh, the Masters 2019 Tour Guide, where he looked at, uh, both modeling baseball in the former and talking about Masters data from Augusta, proprietary Masters data, uh, back in 2019, we know him as that kind of guy.
36:07
He also in real life is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and you may know this about me, I'm kind of in the tank for Washington. So we test our friendship with a look down memory lane.
36:15
It's Joe Peta, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can find him on Twitter @MagicRatSF. Joe? Gil, I, uh- Thank you. Thank you for coming...
36:25
as I, uh, it's, it's a pleasure to be here and to be civil, because as I said Monday, I thought our friendship would take a hiatus this week. [laughs] That's right. All right.
36:33
Well, um, we, we, we actually took sort of, uh, pleasure in this, uh, in this exercise. What would you like to say as a macro statement on this? Yeah. First of all, I think we should find common ground.
36:44
Um, you know, we're gonna talk about sort of the, the history, the interaction here a little bit. And, uh, you know, as, as an olive branch, I want to say that I've always respected your music abi- your music knowledge.
36:56
You have a, you know, obviously, that's part of your background. So I think we can definitely just agree and find some common ground that Fly, Eagles, Fly is a far superior fight song to Hail to the Redskins.
37:08
Oh, for heaven's sake. And if we'll start there- No. Be- No. Oh, Gil. We, we- Hail? We can't even- Hail? Who uses that? [laughs] That's, like, from the Taft Administration. We can't even- Whereas- Agree on that. Ugh.
37:20
Wait, do I get to play referee here? You know what you talk- What's that? [laughs] Do I get to play referee here? Yes, please. [laughs] I, uh, Fly, Eagles, Fly for sure. On the Megapod- Thank you. On, on- For sure.
37:27
[laughs] On the Megapod- Thank you... everyone was saying, oh, Hail to the Redskins by far is the better song, so I, I- Oh... disagree. Disagree. Gil, I, if you ask any kindergarten teacher in the- [laughs]...
37:37
tri-state area, Philly, Delaware, New Jersey, they will tell you they barely have to teach those kids to read or spell because E-A-G-L-E- [laughs]... S, Eagles, they know that from being a toddler. It, it's a civic duty.
37:52
I, we're gonna have to disagree on that, Gil. Disagree. Some of your politicians can't spell that so well, by the way, I saw on, uh, on the old- [laughs] I did see that... social media. That was- Yeah... embarrassing.
38:00
Yeah. Um, [laughs] okay. Do you wanna do... [laughs] So we can't have any common ground, by the way. [laughs] Do you wanna do your, uh, do you wanna do this four, three, two, one, your favorite games of all time?
38:10
Is that what you wanna do? Y- yeah. Let me think. Yeah, exactly, and then I'll, I'll, I'll hear yours. I know there'll be some overlap, and, and I'll, I'll really just do the most commentary on this first one.
38:18
And I, 'cause I really wanna see if you remember this. It's, it's not, you know, it doesn't have a nickname, although I call it the false ascension. Um, September 17th, 1989.
38:30
Uh, to set the table there, it was week two of the NFL- Mm-hmm... season. The Eagles were improbably the NFC East defending champs from 1989. I remember. But- Yeah... e- yeah, they backed into it a little bit.
38:41
They beat the Giants. And, and, and the, the, the Giants and the Skins had been back-to-back Super Bowl champions going into '89. And in '89, the Eagles dethrone the Giants, but it was a fluke.
38:52
They blocked, they returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown, their own, mind you, and then the next week, the, the Giants lost as 10-point favorites in the Meadowlands to the Jets, and the Eagles kind of backed in.
39:05
And that stupid Fog Bowl, we never really found out if the Eagles could've done something that year because of the Fog Bowl.
39:11
So 1989 is kind of a prove-it year, and the second game of the season, they go into RFK, which had been a house of horrors for two decades. And I was at that game, and it's the best game I've ever been to.
39:23
Uh, the Redskins went up 20 nothing. The Eagles ended up winning, I think, 42-37. Randall had five touchdowns, ran for a sixth, and it was just an incredible game.
39:33
And I walked out of that stadium that day thinking, "The Eagles are now the best team in the NFC East, and that means, outside the 49ers, they're the best team in football."
39:42
And if you told me that day that the NFC East was gonna win the next four Super Bowls
39:49
in the n- in the four preceding seasons, I would've said, "Yeah, that, that checks, and I'll bet you the Eagles have two or three of them." And of course- [laughs]... you know, that wasn't the case.
39:58
But I don't know if you remember that game- I do... but it was an incredible game.
40:02
That was a- And Randall, you know, we had Randall, um, you know, Keith Jackson, Chris Carter, Mike Quick, Reggie White, uh, y- Jerome Brown, Eric Allen.
40:12
Like, there were all pros all over the field, and that, it was the false ascension because I thought they'd, they'd, uh, I thought they'd taken the throne. Right.
40:20
And then the next ones, honestly, I feel like you're, you're gonna know those, whether it's the, you know, the Monday Night Massacre, which the reason I think that's important is that was started with the McNabb fleecing.
40:31
The Eagles tra- you know, fleece the, the, the, the Redskins into, into taking McNabb, giving up a high draft choice. They did choose Kevin Kolb with that draft choice.
40:40
He was the starting quarterback, but quickly everybody knew the better quarterback was on the bench, and that led to the Michael Vick and the Monday Night Massacre.
40:48
And then the two, the two most pivotal games, of course, are the Bodybag Game, and the number one has to be Gibbs' Revenge. That, it's painful, but that, that I know you'll wanna talk about that. Yeah.
41:00
Well, my four are, number four, uh, November 14th, 2022, when the 8 and 0 Philadelphia Eagles were 10 and a half point favorites against the 4 and 5 Skins, hosted by, or excuse me, ha- quarterbacked by Taylor Heinicke.
41:13
And, uh, Washington wins it because the, uh, the incomparable Terry McLaurin, eight catches for 128.
41:19
And the Commanders, uh, or at the time, the, the Wooft, um, Twitter account said, quote, "We had a marvelous time ruining everything for them." [laughs] Uh, that's number four. Number, num- excuse me.
41:29
Number three, September 12th, 1982, the very first game of the 1982 season, it was the beginning of the Gibbs dynasty. Uh, Washington r- uh, overcomes a 17-point deficit. Washington wins it in overtime, 37-34.
41:44
Theismann throws for 382. Charlie Brown catches a 78-yard touchdown pass. I scream at the top of my lungs, and my dad gets mad at me for making so much noise.
41:52
That was the one that le- began the Gibbs dynasty at the beginning of the 1982 season. Skins go on to win the Super Bowl. Number two is this year, December 22nd, 2024. Mm.
42:04
The, the big comeback for Jayden Daniels, a 36-33 win for the Commodores, where Frankie Luvu knocks out Jalen Hurts.
42:12
I love how Eagles fans wanna talk about a Bodybag Game, but then when it comes to Jalen Hurts getting knocked out, it's like, "Oh, was Kenny Pickett playing? Ahh." Yeah, I love that kind of thing, Joe.
42:21
[laughs] And then number one, of course, is Gibbs' Revenge, as you said.
42:24
Uh, they followed a, a game that is known as the Bodybag Game, where, uh, a lot of, uh, Washington players got injured during the regular season in the game against Philadelphia. Philly couldn't stop talking about it.
42:35
They thought it was the greatest thing in the world.
42:37
And in the only playoff appearance, or the only playoff matchup that these two franchises in their storied history have ever had in the Super Bowl era, this is after the 1990 season, Gibbs and F- and Washington go into Philly and crush the Eagles 20 to six.
42:53
And Joe Gibbs at the end, after the body, the whole body bag thing, says to every Skin who walks into the locker room, "Win with class," because he loved beating Buddy Ryan's butt every time.
43:03
So that was, of course, the last Washington win until the following year, where the 1991 Washington Redskins became the greatest team of all time. There it is. This is the second playoff matchup, Joe.
43:15
It's a s- That is astounding. Yeah. Yeah, as we were texting this week, they are never good at the same time. Never. And, and the only period was, was that small period of the Ryan Gibbs years.
43:26
And that, yeah, the, the thing about that, that '91, January '91, 1990 playoff, uh, 1990 season playoff game was, I don't... Uh, as I recall, and I lived in Washington at the time,
43:37
Gibbs has never wanted to w- he took that game so personally. Oh, yes, he did. He's never wanted to win a game more.
43:43
And the Bodybag Game, and, and this could be a bad omen for you, just like the last NFC Championship game the Eagles were in with a rookie quarterback two years ago, by the end of the game, there was a running back that was actually quar- I think Mitchell finished that game as the, as the Redskins quarterback.
44:00
That is how many body bags [laughs] were needed- That's right... in that, yeah... Brian Mitchell... that game. That's right. Brian Mitchell finished as quarterback. And Gibbs- Eagles minus six... took it so personally.
44:09
He did. Eagles minus six. You laying the points, Joe? I, I am, Gil. I think it's, I'm, I'm sticking with the rookies. Uh, it's not the, it's not Jayden's time yet. As great as he is, it's not his time this year.
44:19
I'm, so I'm sticking with the Eagles. Joe, I still love you. Thanks for the trip down memory lane. [laughs] Thank you, buddy. Joe Peeta, everybody. Back at it.
44:25
@magicratSF, formerly with ESPN Chalk, by the way, back in the day as well. Uh, Crack Man unscripted on the other side. It's a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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