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Jan 27, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 27, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | January 27, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
This is Kelly Bidlin, everybody, @kelebidlon on Twitter, for those, uh, checking him out on the old, uh, Twitter machine.
0:25
Uh, still to come this hour, Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the Super Contest, who's usually part of Fezzik Fridays, making a Monday appearance this week with us, which we're thrilled about.
0:34
Well, we kind of short, or I kind of short-changed him, uh, last Friday for us, so yeah, yeah, we invited him back on Monday. Why did you shortchange him?
0:40
Well, we, we, we kind of, we, we did a segment on Friday that we were, uh, weren't exactly- Oh... planning, and I know Steve- [laughs] That's right... had a lot of other things that he wanted to get to. That's true.
0:48
We did- So we felt like we needed to invite him back. I forgot we, uh, snuck in something that we- [laughs] I don't know if the audience caught it, but, uh- I don't think so, Gil [laughs]... but we did. Yes.
0:56
Uh, we got tweets that beat the book. By the way, Carl Sack standing by, uh, one of the human beings on earth that literally when he releases plays in the National Basketball Association, the markets move.
1:07
So he's standing by. Let me just read some tweets before we talk to Carl.
1:09
Brandon Kyles, "Apologies if this comes off as too callous or too sports talk radio, or if this was already mentioned, but apparently Mahomes' grandfather was put in hospice care on Friday.
1:19
Ain't no way I'm betting against this team."
1:22
KFLO, @KFlorenz1, "After both games yesterday, does anyone else have the feeling," oh yeah, this was all, this was talked about a lot yesterday, uh, KFLO, "that the NFL and their refusal to embrace technology like Cyclops in tennis, a chip in the ball, or any other solution other than their part-time per diem officials moonlighting from their insurance is the way to go?"
1:43
Uh, by the way, he goes on and on. Sorry, I'm not gonna read the rest of it, KFLO, but I got the gist of it. And, and I think a lot of people were, you know, this has always been the thing we've talked about.
1:50
When are they gonna get a chip in the ball so we know? Um, I don't know.
1:55
I heard Rich Gannon on the way, uh, Rich Gannon was on By the Books with, uh, with Dave this morning, and, you know, he was with Dave Ross, and he was talking about how the chip creates a, a problem that we may not anticipate, which is let's take one of those piles, right?
2:11
Right. Where we can't see the player, and the chip, and the ball's moving back and forth underneath those piles. Oh, it's a first down. Oh, it's not a first down. Oh, it's a first down. So I don't know.
2:19
But I hear what you're saying. A lot of people have been saying that after yesterday. So Sam Schwartzstein, uh- Yeah...
2:24
he tweeted out a great breakdown of all of this, of just there, remember, there is a chip in the ball already, but they're not using it for the location stuff, and he kind of gives a long, long breakdown of what it would require to get us to that point.
2:37
Yeah. Which is not, not necessarily, I mean, I'm not saying that there's no way it, it can happen or it shouldn't happen. Something needs to happen here, but he gives some good reasons.
2:45
Uh, Bruce Dobikin, "Bill's coordinators had stra- had stage fright. Dropped Cook in the first half.
2:50
Andy Reid's Spags bowled a 300 game, which makes you wonder why best coordinators play musical chairs every year while the Chiefs stick with continuity and Super Bowls. P.S.
2:59
Everyone was open to Allen's left on that play." Oh yeah, on the, uh, on that pass that he threw up on the fourth and five that, uh, Kincaid just missed on. Yeah.
3:07
I mean, there was a corner in his face, though, before he could do anything. I know, but Khalil Shakir had a prairie- He was wide open... had a prairie in front of him on the left side. That's true.
3:13
If I was coaching the Bills, I would've lost this game by 100 points, 'cause I'd be like, "No, we're gonna run Josh Allen again. We're gonna run him again."
3:19
Frank Alexander, "Hey, uh, hey Gil, where is Drew when you need him? Sitting here 20 minutes north of Boston listening to you recap the Washington-Philly game and my house starts shaking. Yes, an earthquake.
3:29
3.8 on the Richter scale." Yeah, we just saw that come across. Which, uh, those of us who lived in San Francisco for most of our adults life, adult lives, uh, call a, uh, uh, you know, well, just a- Wake-up call?
3:39
Uh, barely a whisper. Whisper. I hope you're okay, Frank. I hope everybody's okay up there.
3:44
Forest Lehman, "Born at the wrong time, being on the wrong team, being said in regards to Josh Allen, the coaching disparity on those sidelines is significant." Yes. I agree.
3:52
Ice Cold Gambler, "Josh Allen equals Jim Kelly. The Bills are the Bills. They're who they thought they are." Who we thought they are. Terry Elkins, "With Chief's yellow shoes, I thought there was a flag every play."
4:01
Bainbridge Deweese, "I thought that the Chief's play was clearly a catch." Oh, I think he's talking about the, uh, the one before, right. If a player, talking about the one where Bishop might have picked it off or not.
4:10
"If a player has two hands on the ball and hits the ground but doesn't move, it's a catch. Why change that just because the two hands with firm control of the ball are from two different players?"
4:17
I didn't see it that way, Bainbridge. I, if I may call you Bainbridge, by the way. Yeah. Uh, I didn't see it that way. I really didn't. Me either.
4:23
I'm like, I like, he only got possession aft- you know, right at that moment, I thought.
4:28
Uh, Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo, dog, I do declare from here forward, the tush push shall be known as the sneaky freak sneaking in from the back door. Can I get an amen from the congregation?" Sure.
4:39
Sure, if you wanna call it that. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he moves basketball lines. Uh, he joins us from, uh, outside of Denver, Colorado.
4:45
It is the great Carl Sack from Killer Sports, courtesy of the, of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Carl? I'm doing well, Gil. How are you? I'm doing very well.
4:54
We wanna take a little bit of a basketball break, uh, from football and just ask you a couple things.
4:58
One of which was, we were texting a little bit before the show, and, um, the Boston Celtics don't have the best record in the NBA, but just to establish sort of a baseline, you feel like they're just kind of, to use your word, bored.
5:12
I think so, yeah. Yeah, I do. They're, um, you can tell on a night-to-night basis, you know, they come off a loss, they get ticked off, they blow people out.
5:20
You know, they beat Golden State by 40, they beat Dallas by 20, and then they turn around and lose games they shouldn't be losing.
5:27
So yeah, I think they're dealing with motivation issues, which isn't surprising for a team coming off of a, a title, and, you know, they've got, they're running out the same team as they had last year, which was historically good.
5:38
So yeah, I do think they're bored. I said this about NBA handicapping.
5:42
Remember the year that the, uh, the Heat didn't do much in the regular season, and then they had all the big upsets in the playoffs a couple years back? Mm-hmm. Famously against Milwaukee early in that postseason.
5:52
Mm-hmm. And I do think that that's a, that's more of an NBA problem than in any other sport, I think, where it's like, is what we're seeing here over an 82-game schedule- Going to help us?
6:05
Like in other words, the basketball hardos, I made the point at the time.
6:08
I was like, "If you're not a basketball hardo, it actually might help you if you just land on the playoffs because the basketball hardos are going to be, in many cases, not you as we've just talked about right here, but in many cases are...
6:20
could be s- could be taken off the scent because they're gonna have to purge 82 games of data from their minds." Does that make any sense? It does, it makes total sense. You don't really see that in any other sport.
6:32
Yeah. Um, bec- and I think part of it's because basketball in a seven-game series, you know, 100 possessions per team, the better team normally wins.
6:42
Whereas other sports like baseball, football, like anything can happen, and you can't afford to screw around in the regular season.
6:51
What are the teams, give me, give me a quartet of teams that you think are on the, are on the up and up here that may be underperforming, that said, that you think are going to actually, uh, finish much stronger than what we've seen from them?
7:06
Sure. Um, well, Orlando's getting healthy. I think that they're gonna, they're gonna start to turn it on. Um, let's see. I think, uh, Memphis is getting healthy, and they are deep. Uh, they are gonna...
7:20
They, they've been winning lately, and I think they're gonna continue to win. Um, New Orleans is starting to get healthy. Uh, if, if they don't tank, we'll see.
7:29
You know, they've been resting a couple people here and there, but they're, they're on the up and up. And, um, Denver. Denver's coming together, you know?
7:38
They're, they're starting, their role pieces are starting to play well, and surprisingly Westbrook is finding his role with that team, and, and they're starting to, uh, turn it on. Indiana in that group as well at all?
7:50
Yeah, Indiana definitely. I totally agree. They, uh, Mathurin and Nembhard were out for a while. Um, Shepard was out for a while.
7:59
They're, they're getting healthy, and they're starting to gel as well, and their role players are starting to figure it out, their second stringers a- after having played some first string minutes.
8:09
Yeah, I think I- Indy's a bet on team right now.
8:12
Before you give your, uh, your best play of the moment, and when I say the moment, of, uh, the line that is available right now as we're doing this show here just before or just after 8:00 AM Pacific, 11:00 AM Eastern.
8:22
Um, give everybody, uh, sort of the breakdown of Killer Sports. 'Cause I know you've been on before. You were kind enough to be in studio- Mm-hmm... a month or so ago here. But, but not many...
8:31
I don't know about not many, but some aren't gonna be familiar with you. Tell, tell us what Killer Sports is, and then tell us where folks can find your picks as well. Yeah.
8:38
Killer Sports is a, uh, website that helps handicappers basically.
8:42
A lot of st- statistics and, uh, databases for all the major sports, so you can do your research, you know, if you're, whether you're trying to make a math model and quantify the different variables, you know, what's, what's certain rest worth.
8:56
Um, you know, how do teams do off of upset wins, stuff like that. Um, or just trying to figure out what situations in general, uh, have been profitable relative to the market in, in recent years.
9:08
Um, so yeah, it's, it's basically a real, uh, it's a handicapping tool that I use, uh, every day. And it's beyond basketball, right? It's, uh, throughout sports. Yeah.
9:17
Uh, football, basketball, baseball, hockey, uh, tennis. Yeah. Tennis, I like that. Uh, so we'll be hearing from Carl beyond just the NBA.
9:26
All right, what s- what game right now are you focused in on in the NBA you think is the best bet that exists right now for tonight's slate? I would say, uh, Denver's side right now. It's nine, nine and a half.
9:40
Um, these are two... They're playing sh- at Chicago, and these are two teams that are going in completely different directions. Denver's won eight out of 10. Um, Chicago's lost eight out of 10.
9:51
Um, Denver's coming off of an embarrassing loss, like a 30-point loss to Minnesota in a game they were favored in. Um, and I don't think Denver's gonna overlook the Chicago team.
10:03
This, they played them twice last year and were big favorites in both those games and lost both outright. So, so there's a sense of, there's kind of some revenge here.
10:13
But, um, yeah, no, I think Denver's, I think Denver's gonna roll in this game. All right, Denver minus eight and a half is what we're showing right now. Um- Oh, really? Yeah, minus eight and a half. Even better.
10:24
Oh, well, that's even better. Yeah. Even better. Uh, at the Chicago Bulls, the United Center tonight at 8:10 Eastern. Carl, appreciate it. We'll do it every Monday, okay? That sounds great. Thanks for having me on, Gil.
10:35
Good to talk to you. My man. Carl Sack, everybody, at Killer Sports. Uh, what's the, what's the, uh, the Tw- the Twitter handle on that? I don't wanna get that wrong. It's at, uh, Killer Sports...
10:45
Well, it's killersports.com. On Twitter- @killersportscom @killersportscom. Yep. I knew there was something a little quirky about it. Okay. Yeah, Den- yeah, Denver's a side I was considering tonight too.
10:54
13 and six their last 19 games, third-best, uh, net rating outside of garbage time minutes, uh, for D- uh, Denver. They're playing really well right now. I, that, that was a bet I considered last night.
11:04
Numbers gone up a, a little ru- run away a little bit. Seven and a half I was considering it. Didn't end up playing though.
11:10
By the way, congratulations to anybody who had Madison Keys to win the Australian Open ladies side- Incredible... or Jannik Sinner to win the men's side.
11:17
By the way, uh, uh, Sascha Zverev just with a horrible performance in the finals. I had the over in that. He did get it to one breaker.
11:24
If he wins the breaker, we win it, but he just looked listless in that match against Sinner. But Madi Keys, congratulations.
11:30
I'm so glad I mentioned her on the podcast with Drew and Zach 'cause I'm like, "What about one more thing? What about Madi Keys?" Um, but I, man, I never saw that coming. I didn't think she was gonna win at all.
11:41
She beats Iga in the semis. She survived a match point against Iga in the semis, and then she takes down Sabalenka. First Major ever for Madi. Congratulations to all.
11:50
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN fans, you are in luck.
12:03
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12:11
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12:19
Book your 2025 stay now at circalasvegas.com and use VSiN15 to get 15% off. That makes sense. Your Vegas adventure starts here. Skill Alexander, uh, ch- usually we have this gentleman on, uh, for football Fridays.
12:34
We've cleverly called it Fezzik Fridays. But he's here with us on a Monday 'cause we kinda short changed him on Friday. It was a whole thing.
12:41
Uh, but he's kind enough to join us here after the championship games, uh, just under two weeks before Super Bowl 59, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. I always, I...
12:49
By the way, I, first of all, hello. I always introduce you- Hey, Gillie... as the only, uh, I'll introduce you as the only back-to-back winner. You're the only two-time winner, I should say. Yes, yes.
12:56
The only two-time winner, just happened to be back-to-back. Second in the Westgate season win contest. Kelly keeps asking me how I did. Oh, you finished second. What did you end up? We, we met the winners.
13:06
The winners came by. Really? Yes. What did you finish? 24 and eight. Which- Which has always...
13:11
And, and I had the Chiefs to win 13 games, so I had, I had the back, the tiebreaker in my back pocket, and I'm like, "No one's ever gone 25 and seven in this contest. I'm, I'm, I'm good."
13:21
Why doesn't the Westgate promote that more? That's a great contest, the 32 season win totals, and then it's a... What's the prize? 25K? Uh, yeah, it was like 25. 25K. Yeah, yes. Um- [laughs] You're like, "Eh, yeah, 25K."
13:33
They, they do a good job. They have, they have, like, an NBA season win contest. Yeah. They have an MLB season win contest. The Westgate- Yeah...
13:38
like, has fantastic contests, but, um, like, the original Star Trek, um, um, series, the TV series- Uh-huh... like, it, it's like the Federation's taken over. The Circ has taken over. Yeah.
13:50
You want, you, you, you're lucky to get a piece of the action with, uh, the Circ, the Circa's, uh, the, the- That's why I refer-... episode's piece of the action...
13:57
that's why I refer to them as the granddaddy of them all- Yes... 'cause that gives them their little, their niche still, and gives them a props and- I'd rather win millions once- No, I understand... or Survivor.
14:05
I understand. By the way, I wasn't gonna, we're gonna get to football here.
14:07
I wasn't gonna start with this, but, but you're, you're kind enough to join me for the, uh, the Vegas Lifestyle Podcast this week, the 14th annual Beating the Book Vegas Lifestyle Podcast.
14:18
It is the only non-sports specific podcast that we do on the Beating the Book feed. Um, and Mark, you're doing it with Mark Meltzer, Like Selzer. We'll see if Crack wants to come on too.
14:27
But Sel- But he just sent me something, just sort of to whet my appetite for this year's show, reserved seating for Caesars Palace Sports Book for the first day of March Madness, so the first Thursday of March Madness.
14:40
Sounds like $125. Oh, does it? Uh-oh. You are low, sir. All right. Ooh. The full, the full day, there's a full day, there's an early session, and there's a late session. What did you just guess? 125.
14:52
[laughs] That's just a s- that's just to get a seat, right? That is- That's not food. That's not- That's adorable. [laughs] A full day starts at $850. What?
15:04
Early session, I don't know why I went early, I don't know what happened to my voice there, early session starts at $550. The late session starts at $650.
15:13
I'm old enough to remember where you'd just stumble, you'd be out having played blackjack all night, you'd stumble over at, like, like, 6:00 AM, and you'd just put, "Reserved for Steve," and you'd just put it, put, like, a little p- piece of paper down, and then I'd stumble back four hours later and walk up.
15:28
Someone would be in the seat. I'd say, "That, that's my seat." He said Friday is the same. [laughs] Remember, that's just for Thursday. That's not the weekend. That's just for Thursday. He says Friday is the same.
15:36
The weekend is a little cheaper because there are fewer games. You don't... Uh, iconic Caesars Palace. It has a great sports book. We've hung out there numerous times. You know what?
15:46
Hang out during the NBA playoffs there. Don't pay $125. [laughs] Come on. Oh, man. And I remember the days, oh, the days of yore, when you could just show up, right? Like you're saying. Oh, boy.
16:00
But we said it for pool parties too, right? Like, when we were kids.
16:02
Well, I, to give Westgate their credit, I think they've got a big, like, um, I don't know if they charge for it, but they've got a, they, they open up one of their showrooms, right?
16:10
So that, that would be a better option, and South Point does a, a great job, and I'm sure, you know, that would be a good option for you.
16:16
I don't mean to be flippant about this, but what I just read, that is kind, that is shocking. Like, that is, again, for a town that, you know, we think of these day parties, these pool parties.
16:25
We used to go down to the pool early Saturday morning. If, and I was the f- if I was the first one to find it last year, this is a Hard Rock Rehab, if I was the first one to find a chair, I'd throw a towel on it.
16:33
That's my chair for the rest of the day. Well, I sure hope there's- I just beat, I just beat you to the chair...
16:36
I sure hope there's never, like, a devastating hurricane that comes inland to Vegas, and, like, can you imagine the gouging of the water and everything else- Oh...
16:42
and the plywood, how much they're gonna charge you for it? Uh, anyway, let's get back to yesterday.
16:48
You, uh, I was making fun of you [laughs] the whole second half of this game yesterday because you were calling it one of the greatest games of all time. I'm like, okay, easy. It was.
16:55
I said it had the potential to be the- Oh, it did have the potential... the Cook run on the, when, when, when he's blasted by- It was a great play... the second dude, and you're like, "Freeze it."
17:03
There's no way he's scoring. That's, that's amazing. That was an amazing play. I mean, he defied the... You see his hand, and his elbow's going down, and just like it's bionic. [laughs] And the arm goes back.
17:12
It goes down, and then the arm goes back up, but he never touches his forearm. Well, 'cause he got a grazing hit from- Yes... Justin Reid, which didn't knock him off.
17:20
But that was an, that was one hit, and then he got a solid hit in the back. I wanna say it was, uh, Bolton. What did I say earlier? And, and, and we've all seen these hits numerous times, and the dude does not score.
17:30
The physics says the g- body can't go forward when you take that second hit. Yeah. So that was an iconic play, and, and, and how about Kansas City? Uh, first and goal from the Wishnow [laughs] First and goal from the 10.
17:41
From the 9.9-yard line. That's right. We know- No one scores from there. Todd Wishnow is very big on when you have first and goal from the nine or 10, that it is way less successful than people give it credit for. Never.
17:52
Yeah. Never. If you're on the 25- Yeah... matriculate to the 10. [laughs] Well, and that's what Xavier Worthy, he just ran out of bounds at the 10- Yes... which is like, dude, te- well, go for some contact.
18:01
Try to get some yards. And they, the play call cannot be overemphasized how great it was. Brilliant, and how brilliant- Mahomes, you're running this. Nobody saw that coming...
18:10
how brilliant is, is Andy Reid, I mean- He doesn't get... I mean, he gets his credit now because of all the wins, and obviously Mahomes is God, but, like, there's an example.
18:18
That play call is so strong, and here is a team, they just take guys off the scrap heap. Kareem Hunt- Uh-huh... he's, like, running back number two with Cleveland, you know?
18:27
It's like, and boom, dude's, like, on the bad part of his c- his career. Juju Smith-Schuster, the guy looks like a fullback now. Um, still successful. But, but this is the thing that also doesn't...
18:36
I mean, so someone brought it up, uh, on, on Twitter. Uh, forgive me if it was Bruce Dobbings or somebody else, I apologize. Um, continuity in the NFL, right? I've talked about it over the years on this show.
18:47
You cannot emphasize continuity enough. There is something about the nature of this sport particularly, right? In basketball, if you have Michael Jordan, you're gonna be good, right?
18:57
Baseball's a, uh, an individual sport disguised as a team sport. Yes. But in the NFL, like, this is a marriage of 11 guys on both sides of the ball.
19:07
To have the same coordinators and the same coaches year after year after year, that is a huge... Right?
19:12
'Cause I always say about Peyton Manning, my whole thing was if Peyton Manning was drafted by Washington, he may never have become Peyton Manning. Mm-hmm. 'Cause he would've had a different coordinator every year.
19:19
I get it, he still had the Manning pedigree, but you just, I just don't think he would've been. Um, the other thing about it is when you have Patrick Mahomes though, right,
19:29
all of that other stuff that you just mentioned follows. So as long as you have this generational player, m- forget generational, all-timer, right, you can take guys off the scrap heap and make it work.
19:41
I say this about Washington now. In, you know, Washington w- what a ride it was, what a future with nine- Well, they took guys off the scrap heap... with, with m- Austin Ekeler and- All these guys... yes...
19:51
with $90 million in cap space, when you have a Jayden Daniels now, free agents wanna come to play for you. Great point. Before you had that, nobody wanted to come to DC to play for Daniel Snyder and that group.
20:05
Now it's like T Higgins is like, "I know..." I mean, I'm hoping, right? T Higgins could be like, "I totally know where I'm going to play." But so it, it...
20:12
what I'm saying with all of that is when you are, when you are lucky enough to have a Mahomes or a Jayden Daniels, the, i- i- what does it say? The rich beget rich things, right? So it just, it's a s- it's a snowball.
20:26
It's- And you know-... and it's a wonderful thing... pursuant to that, and I was wrong about this, I made the case that Detroit, Cleveland, and Buffalo would never win a Super Bowl ever going forward, and here's why.
20:39
All right? Uh, why, if you're a free agent, do you wanna live in d- in those cities? All right? If you can get comparable money somewhere else, I mean, people say, "Well, Minnesota," I'm like, "Well, you know what?
20:49
If I'm a big o- o- lineman, I can hunt and I can fish. I mean, you know, the, it's attractive to me." I don't understand how Cleveland is gonna be an attractive landing spot for any free agent.
20:59
Gilly, how much would I have to pay you to do your show from Cleveland? You know what? There's a price. Well- Oh, there's a number, but it's a much higher number...
21:05
I love all of our listeners from Cleveland, so I'm not gonna answer that question. Ooh. How about that? But- I'm from Ohio, so... Yes, you are from Ohio. But no, there's a point to what we're saying.
21:13
Southern Ohio, where we hate Cleveland. Sam Wyche. [laughs] We're not Cleveland. We don't live in Cleveland. We live in, you live in Cincinnati.
21:20
[laughs] Um, no, so I think there's a lot to that that we don't often talk about. By the way, as I'm talking about that, I'm thinking about the Chiefs and the Bills yesterday.
21:27
Of course, the Chiefs only end up with Patrick Mahomes because the Bills traded that pick. [sighs] So there's that, right? Um, I wanna get to your, I wanna get to the prop stuff here after the break.
21:39
But I said earlier your first reaction was you're taking, you're taking the Eagles. Yes. Why? Because the analytics, like yards per play, old school, the analytics, just the stats, say the Eagles are the better team.
21:51
And the Eagles are awesome. The Eagles were bad in September when their wide receivers were hurt.
21:56
Since then, they lost one game, um, it, d- to, because they, it, because they dropped the, the pass against your Washington team. Devante Smith. Devante Smith dropped the pass, or they win. They had two bad games.
22:06
They won by five and six against Jacksonville and somebody else, and Carolina. All right, uh, they had two Kansas City-type games, and they murdered everybody else. They won in Baltimore. They crushed the Bengals.
22:16
You're like, "Well, the Bengals aren't any good." The Bengals would've been 10 and 7 if they would've beaten the Eagles, and they beat them in, by 17. They beat the Cowboys by, like, 28 twice. They beat the Giants by 28.
22:25
This team is a juggernaut when they're healthy. Now, is Hurts healthy? A.J. Brown's healthy now. A.J. Brown was not healthy the two weeks before.
22:33
I only ask this because it's Patrick Mahomes, but because it's Patrick Mahomes, how dumb would you feel if Kansas City beats them? Very. [laughs] Uh, how about the Super Bowl prop that actually has newfound value?
22:47
We'll get into that next on the Numbers Game at VSYS, V Sports Betting Network. A Numbers Game on VSYS, the sports betting network. Oh, Stevie, you'll like this.
22:57
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23:01
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23:23
As a former actuary and analytics guy, [smacks lips] I did not have the nickname Bubba on my bingo card- Yes... for my analytics trading expert. [laughs] Did you ever ha- did you ever have a nickname?
23:35
[smacks lips] Fezzik. Fezzik was your nickname. [laughs] Okay. Um, I wanna get, so I wanna get to something here that is very actionable.
23:43
So, uh, for those who are new to betting or new-ish, this is a big time of year, the Super Bowl, obviously, not just for football purposes, but for betting purposes, because sports books have hundreds of props that typically don't exist in a normal weekend game or, or a normal Sunday game on the NFL schedule on a given week.
24:03
And, uh, it's got... You know, it started with the William "Refrigerator" Perry touchdown in Super Bowl 20, uh, back when the '85 Bears, uh, had used Refrigerator Perry for offensive plays during the season.
24:15
Mike Ditka had inserted him on some goal line plays. And so Jimmy McCarron, uh, had this prop, will William "The Refrigerator" Perry score in Super Bowl 20? Will he, will he score a touchdown?
24:26
And the prop I think was, it's, think it started at four- I wanna say 40 to one, and got, the yes got bet all the way down to plus minimal number, I believe. Yeah, like down to five to one. Yeah. Mm-hmm.
24:37
And, uh, of course, William "The Refrigerator" Perry did score in Super Bowl 20 against the Patriots in the Bears blowout.
24:43
By the way, Mike Ditka said afterwards, he obviously had nothing to do with the, uh, the bet, but he said afterwards it was one of the biggest regrets, if not the biggest regret of his, of his coaching life because what it did in effect was denied Sweetness, Walter Payton, a touchdown in that game, which he regretted.
24:59
But nonetheless, for those who bet it, that's when the Super Bowl prop frenzy, if you will, began. We're at Super Bowl 59, so that's damn near 40 years ago at this point, and it's grown into this amazing thing.
25:08
Rufus Peabody first gained notoriety betting Super Bowl props and exploiting Super Bowl props. There was a big piece on him in the Washington Post, uh, that really sort of gained fame for him in this corner of the world.
25:21
And so it does beg the question, Steve, that there are formulaic Super Bowl props, right?
25:27
There is, there's obviously some unique ones specifically tailored, like that Refrigerator Perry was, for s- for specific circumstances.
25:35
But generally, the, the majority of them are, you know, insert name of, of these two teams, but it's the same kind of props from year to year.
25:44
Yeah, the total in the game's 49, so I'll make the first quarter 9.75, the second quarter 14, the third quarter 10, the fourth quarter, you know, 13 and a half. Boom, it's all by the book.
25:55
So it begs the question then, what do we have this year that actually might be something we can exploit that the books will not necessarily capture?
26:06
There has been a fundamental shift in the NFL towards going for it on fourth down.
26:12
And even the announcers, the square ball old school announcers, have come around to, "Hey, maybe we could go for this fourth down and five instead of punting the ball and losing."
26:22
[laughs] "You know, that's a decision I might even make." I think I'd go for this, Jim. Yeah. Um, uh, as opposed to just knocking over your king and resigning in a chess game. I don't wanna play anymore.
26:32
Um, Mike Tomlin style. But as long- [laughs]... as the Steelers aren't in the Super Bowl.
26:37
So you've gotta look at these fourth down conversions, and historically it's hard to have a successful fourth down conversion, but things have changed.
26:44
Now, with more and more teams going this past weekend, there were 10, count them, 10 successful fourth down conversions. Four for the losing team, one for the winning team.
26:56
And so if you think about it, what's the over-under gonna be? I, I, I, I'm anticipating there'll be a prop. You have to pay vig on it. Will Kansas City have one successful fourth down conversion?
27:06
Philly will probably be one and a half because they famously go for it.
27:09
But, um, even so, I could only look towards playing y- the overs on the fourth down conversions, and this spills over into numerous other props' pricings as well.
27:21
That's, I think that's even the more interesting part, 'cause I think people, people are nodding their heads at what you're talking about.
27:25
That's a great point, because obviously 40 years ago our heads would've exploded if we had had this fourth down conversation. But even two years ago, right?
27:32
This is a much different, fundamentally a much different sport and philosophies when it comes to, uh, going forward or not on fourth downs. What it spills into is equally interesting, as you say. Yeah.
27:44
So if there's more fourth down conversions and fourth down plays, what are there less of?
27:49
Well, now I've gotta be very hesitant about third down conversions because teams have figured it out, like the Eagles, "Hey, if I need five yards on third and five, I d- I don't need five yards, I need four yards, so I can run a play that will almost get me the first down, but that won't show up as a successful third down conversion."
28:07
And I tell you what, if you're a fan of punts and field goals- Right... um, I still don't know the name of the Washington... Oh, no, uh, the Washington punter, because he's a passer also. Tress Way.
28:18
Yeah, Tress Way is a, a former child punt, pass, and kick champion- [laughs]... no doubt, who threw a pass that was nicer than any one that I saw Caleb throw all year long [laughs] on that- Oh, wow... on that fake punt.
28:29
See, I didn't do that to Caleb, fans. That was him. Um- Yeah... but the, uh, certainly I'd be very hesitant in terms of number of field goals, number of punts I'd be looking under.
28:40
By the way, be careful though with the field goals because we've been having bad weather games, all right? So the long, um, longest field goal.
28:47
Now we got perfect conditions in the dome, so I'd be, I'd be a little careful about playing, you know, longest field goal and, and playing under the 48 and a half there.
28:54
Well, longest field goal is different, that's right. Yeah. So people...
28:58
So maybe the c- maybe the number of field goals attempted is lower based on how the game is played, but longest field goal doesn't necessarily change, may even get longer in that same theory. Yes.
29:09
I- Although, you know, they, oftentimes they put up field goals three and a half, and they put up longest field goal, or, or total field goals attempted four and a half.
29:16
Boy, I really like the under four and a half better, I mean, because the narrative's gonna be all the- Yeah... you know, the Philly kicker can't kick a lick, you know?
29:22
And it's still hard to miss a field goal, even if you're a bad kicker, you know?
29:26
I, I also think that third down point you made, just in case anybody missed it, and I'm, I, I'm sure most of our audience got it, but I think that's a great point, which is, and especially with a team like Philadelphia, but also with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, but especially with Philadelphia, your play calling on third down.
29:42
Like, that's the biggest thing in Kellen Moore's sort of trajectory here as the, uh, Eagles' offensive coordinator. He gets it. He's like, "No, this is who we are, and this is how we play football."
29:52
A third and five, which in past years, maybe not for the Eagles last year, but in years two, three gone by... would have been, "Well, it's third out conversion.
30:00
They're obviously gonna punt if they don't gain a yard here." No, the, you will play call it with the fourth down in mind. E- exactly. Not just end of game situations. And this- Always...
30:09
and this could spill over even t- into more, um, plays that are runs. You can bet, you know, how many g- how many rush plays and how many pass plays there, there will be.
30:17
And so obviously, um, you're gonna matriculate towards more rush plays. Look at, look at that goal line stance where how many, how many runs were the Eagles gonna run before- Yeah...
30:26
you know, Washington finally said, "I'd just give them a team touchdown," you know? [laughs] After four penalties or whatever.
30:32
Does this in, and so I think all this is very interesting, fourth downs, third downs, field goals, punts.
30:38
Um, does it in any way change, I'm just riffing now, I'm just thinking, last week we were on the show, and we say this every year, the, the prop that flummoxes new or new-ish bettors the most is the prop that states will it, pardon me, except, with the exception of, uh, extra points and two-point conversions, will a team score three times in a row?
31:00
And the yes is priced at, like, minus 170-ish. And to the average bettor, the newer bettor, they're like, "What do you mean? These are two of the best teams in football, if not the two best teams.
31:10
The likelihood of them scoring three times in a row is very low. How can that be the minus?" Gonna go back and forth- Yeah... back and forth. Of course. Close game. The no should be minus. Yeah.
31:17
But in fact, it is correctly priced. It happens all the time. Does this stuff that we're talking about in any way bother that? It makes it less likely there'll be three straight scores. Yeah.
31:29
But if you think about it, field goals are outlawed. That's what I'm thinking.
31:31
Now you gotta score three straight touchdowns, and that's gonna be a lot more difficult than, you know, g- getting those threes whenever you get in- into field goal range.
31:38
I, I referenced this on Friday, but my favorite reference is indeed the Tennessee Rams, the close, low-scoring Super Bowl 23-16 Rams, lands right on the number.
31:48
Like, that's, like, the poster child if, if you saw that final score, like, "Oh, I'm gonna bet, you know, that, that there's not gonna be three consecutive scores."
31:54
Well, both teams scored three consecutive times in that Super Bowl. Yeah. Uh, uh, isn't that amazing? That 23-16, the one where, uh, the, uh, Titans famously, Kevin Dyson one yard short.
32:06
Was it Dyson who was one yard short? Yeah. Yeah, Kevin Dyson one yard short. Um, Jones making the tackle for the Rams on that one.
32:13
So I think all of this is very interesting, and the, the point being is that what we are saying, but what we are tacitly saying, but not actually explicitly saying is, that the books can't possible...
32:23
While those other, w- while these lines and these props have been calibrated from year after year 'cause they're formulaic, they can't possibly price these correctly. Yeah. The, another one is the two-point conversion.
32:35
Yeah. So it's, it's hard to have a two-point conversion. We had, like, three of them attempted in the, in the Bills game.
32:39
So what's happened, the book has gotten out, and there's been a rules change on the kickoffs because if, if you have a personal foul now on a touchdown, teams are like, "Well, I'm going for it.
32:48
If I get the ball on the one-" That's right... so f- so, so even in the first half, you're gonna see attempts that could happen.
32:54
Both, both these coaches are gonna go for a two-point conversion from the one, so it's, I would, I would be terrified to bet that there wouldn't be a two-point conversion. Right.
33:02
We saw it yesterday on more than one occasion where- Yeah... a team tried to go for it, uh, from the one yard line. Buffalo failed twice. Kansas City succeeded. Fi- [laughs] final, uh, margin of victory, three points.
33:12
Oh.
33:13
By the way, did you see some of the incoming you took on the whole, uh, you know, bet the Chiefs on the money line, take the Bills for the points, and then there were a couple people on Twitter like, "What are you doing?
33:21
Why did it go to overtime?" You s- you got those? I did not. Yeah, no, that's, uh- [laughs]... I'm just curious. Uh, Steve Fezzik, that's great stuff actually. Great information. And here's the thing.
33:31
We used to have to wait for the props. They're out. Hundreds of them are already out at certain sports books, not necessarily in, in Vegas, but, uh, in the- Caesars is up... Caesar- oh, Caesars is up.
33:41
DraftKings up as well. We'll come back. More with Fezzik on the other side here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa here at downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik, kind enough to, uh, hang with us on this Monday morning.
34:04
Usually he's, uh, here on a Friday, which, uh, is really the response to some of these tweets we've gotten. We get tweets at Be In The Book. Wet Willy Colon, who says, "No intro theme for Fezzik?"
34:14
Jason Ice Cold Gambler, "What happened to Fezzik's intro music? Come on, Kelly, you're slacking."
34:19
Well, a decision was made that because it's Fri- it's Fezzik Fridays, and you're here on a Monday, that we wouldn't play the intro music. You know, Monday or Friday, we're here at Circa. I love Circa.
34:29
I love this whole... I love The Jackpot, um, c- little coffee shop there. I love Victory Burger. I like the little, uh, Saginaw's Deli. I love Barry's. I love Stadium Swim.
34:38
I love their little gym here, and I love the Signature Legacy Club on the 60th floor. Anything else? Time of my life, baby. [laughs] James Sott, "Ooh, man, watching NCAA tournament at Circa would be amazing."
34:52
Uh, Vegas DP, "Vegas lifestyle show this week. Woo-hoo. Yes, Beating The Book podcast with both Fezzik and Meltzer like seltzer."
34:58
Richard Ng, "Aang having Fezzik on is like listening to Bill Belichick talk about football strategy." There you go. Um, Pick10, "Total punts at DK, six minus 115." Is he saying six and a half at 1- minus 115 or six?
35:12
Six is a really low number. He, he, he has six and a thing. I think he might mean six and- It's gotta be six and a half... yeah, he might mean six and a half. Yeah. The num- Think that's an apostrophe...
35:19
the, the numbers guys, uh, the numbers guys, "Fundamental shift," is what Fezz said, right? He said, "Shift." Yes, he did.
35:26
[laughs] Brandon Webb, "Putting a chip at the ball," which I agree with, "won't el- won't eliminate the complainers. I can hear it now, 'Oh, it's all on a computer now.
35:34
They can make the ball appear like it's wherever they want.' There will always be conspiracy theorists." Brandon, you're 100% right. You know, back to, like, the chip- 100% right...
35:41
they need to put a Plinko puck in the football because, be harder to throw it- Yeah... because, like, Gilly invented, copyrighted it.
35:49
Um, so many plays, like who wins the games, it comes down to, um, oh- Is the tight end gonna catch the, the, gonna get, you know, the lollipop on fourth down? Yeah. Plinko. Yeah.
35:59
Um, it's fourth and one, and you know what? An MIT grad with an abacus could not tell whether he made it or not. [laughs] It's really true.
36:07
Our GBank Best Bets of the day, courtesy of GBank, the official bank of VSiN, 'cause I wanna get back to, uh, Fezz here quickly. I am on the Chiefs.
36:14
I bet the Chiefs minus the point and a half, um, against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's still minus one and a half at, uh, Bookmaker offshore, but it has, it, it is a-movin'.
36:23
I don't like, I w- I'd rather lay the minus 125. We're back to that discussion of- Oh, that's true... they have one point. If it goes overtime- That's true...
36:29
and they both score touchdowns, and it lands on one- It was a very, a-... you're gonna feel like a dummy... I only betted at one place, but I betted very impulsively yesterday.
36:38
[laughs] I will be betting the money line as well. Bottom line, the one is more likely to land in the Super Bowl because of the, the overtime rules. Yes. Makes sense. Kelly's picks.
36:46
He's on Kareem Hunt, over 42 and a half rushing yards in Super Bowl LIX. That's Super Bowl LIX.
36:53
Isaiah Pacheco, longest rush under eight and a half yards in Super Bowl LIX, and Kelly's got the, uh, conference play that he still has in pocket. He's got the AFC at minus 115 to win the Super Bowl.
37:04
Let me ask Kelly, is there any concern here that obviously we've been playing in the wintertime in Kansas City, and Kareem Humps, Hun- Hunt is a big fat guy, [laughs] you know, that's perfect. He's a mudder.
37:16
But Pacheco, who runs angry and is faster, would he be more effective on the turf of New Orleans? I'm gonna do my Kelly, my, my thought of what Kelly would respond. He'd be like, "Eh, a little bit, but not that much."
37:26
Um, Steve Fezzik's bet. Oh, look at you, doing a little college baloncesto tonight. System play, right? Whenever you get the worser-ranked team- Yep...
37:35
at home, and they're laying points, there's a reason they're laying points. So Iowa State projected to be a number one seed, not after they get blasted tonight by 20 points.
37:44
Did, speaking of that, did you see the Kansas-Houston finish the other, the other day, on Saturday? I, I, I saw the box score where there was back-to-back threes apparently for, for Houston.
37:56
I, I happened to be watching it. [laughs] Um, Kansas, to your point, was a home dog by, I think, a point and a half- Mm-hmm... uh, against Houston, and- Beware of the fog... they go to overtime.
38:09
Kansas is up six points with less than 20 seconds left. Game's over. Game's over. Time, turn it off. Houston- Go, go watch Heidi... Houston's win probability is point, I think it's 0.4, so l- less than half a percent.
38:25
Seems high. Yeah, it seems a little high. [laughs] That's right. So w- I think with 13 seconds left, they're down, so they hit a three. Mm-hmm. And you know what happens next? No problem. There's a timeout, right?
38:35
Just, just- No problem... just inbound the ball and make a couple free throws. They steal the ball. Steal. They hit another three. Foul ball... and we go to double overtime, and they win. Goodness. Unbelievable finish.
38:44
Uh, Kelly's also on a couple basketball plays tonight. He's on the Wolves minus seven, and he's on the Clippers on the money line in the National Basketball Association.
38:53
All of our best bets, uh, recapped at the end of every show. Oh, by the way, Carl Sack also on the Nuggets. Uh, he got it minus nine.
38:59
You can actually find, uh, minus eight and a halves out there on the, on the Nuge, the Denver Nuge tonight, uh, in a f- not a full slate of NBA, but a pretty hearty, uh, slate of NBA games.
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39:39
By the way, Carl Sack, uh, used to be under Dr. Bob's umbrella. Both Dr. Bob and Carl Sack, one of those guys who've been in the industry forever, and these are the rare guys.
39:48
They just stay up on everything that's going on, and they just win, baby. They just consistently... I think Dr. Bob just had a, like, 15 and five Saturday, and I track all these guys. I bet, I bet Carl's plays. I bet Dr.
40:01
Bob's plays, and, um, don't like to be against these guys. That's why, um, Dr. Bob may not like the Eagles, which I like, which has me very c- very concerned to- Yes... I don't, I don't need that kind of trouble.
40:15
Don't need to go against, like, a pioneer. Um, he's in the, the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, right, Dr. Bob? Should be. Wall- Oh, he's not. Wall Street Journal- But he's not, yeah... Wall Street Journal- Yeah...
40:24
d- does, does a feature article on him, moves all the lines in Vegas, terrifies all the Hall of Fame bookmakers who can't get their lines right. Yeah. And they're all in the Hall of Fame. Huh. So- Huh...
40:32
so, see, I, I'm on the Chiefs, didn't scare you, but Bob might be and, uh, might scare you is what you're saying. Yes. Yes. I understand. I understand.
40:40
Um, before we go, you wanted to, we wanted to bring up a couple things. One, exchanges. Oh, yeah, betting ex- exchanges, so there's SportTrade, Profit, there's other ones out there.
40:49
Famously, Matchbook was one of the first ones. This is the time of year, it's like we're talking about Kansas City, we're talking about Philadelphia. Don't be a square and lay minus 110. Sorry, Gilly.
41:01
Um, because on a betting exchange, like, look at this Kansas City-Buffalo game. So it, they, K- KC closed on these exchanges minus one, lay 101, or you could bet Buffalo plus one, minus 101. Yeah.
41:14
So, um, if you wanna pay $10 for gas when you can pay, pay $1 for gas, go right ahead.
41:20
But I'd rather pay $1, and so these betting exchanges, they're not gonna do you any good when you're betting a Toledo-Eastern Michigan college basketball game. Yep. There's no liquidity, all right?
41:28
You're much better betting it here at Circa. But on a standalone game or even an Aussie Open final, things like that, my goodness, the bid-ask differential, pennies. Just pennies. Pennies. I've seen as low as
41:41
a tenth of a cent in each direction. I don't know why you're apologizing to me, Steve Fezzik, but, uh, I'm all about the exchanges.
41:46
And the, the thing about the exchanges and, uh, whether it's, you know, SportTrade that we've had on or, or Profit X guys that we've had on, um, it's just a matter of once the behavior, once the leap is made, right, once the behavior is changed, I think you're probably hooked forever.
42:02
But it, the, the That's the key, right? To just to get to someone to make that leap, which is, it, it's not a big barrier, but you know that, for all of us are kind of like this. Hey, really important. Yeah.
42:13
When you start using an exchange, it's like baby steps, all right? Yeah. Your first month on the exchange, don't put up offers. It's fraught with danger. I won't even go into why, okay?
42:24
Just accept offers for the first couple weeks when you go to exchange, all right?
42:29
One of the dangers of putting up an offer is you could type in the, the odds wrong, and obviously, if you put up, like, a very attractive price with a typo, someone's gonna, like, snap it up immediately.
42:37
But the second problem is you put up an offer and then boom, especially in the NBA, all right? Mm-hmm.
42:43
And then all of a sudden, um, ball gets scratched, you know, and he's not playing, and all- and the line goes from five to one, you know.
42:49
So and then every, every one of those offers gets accepted, so being the market maker, putting up the offer, be much more cautious. When you said ball, you meant the player ball. Melo ball. Yes. Okay.
43:00
[laughs] I was just wondering. Of all the players- No... you chose to pick, yeah. Pot- potty mouth. Yeah. Um, well, forget Felika, get Bob. [laughs] Let's put a line up on who curses the most- Oh, man... on ENG.
43:10
Once again, we have, uh, flirted with disaster here. [laughs] Um, okay, so- [laughs] But I think that's great advice that you just shared about the exchanges. For the first month, don't make any offers.
43:21
Just chill and accept offers. Learn the lay of the land. Exactly right. Yeah.
43:25
And also notice how, like, five minutes before a game starts, like, like, that's when, like, there's almost, like, the, you, you, you can lay one-on-one in each direction on these big games, and then what'll happen is inevitably people start pulling their offers down, like, right before the game starts.
43:39
And it's not unusual, like, 30 seconds before a game, if you might suddenly, you know, if you put up an offer that's not really that attractive, someone might gobble it because it- Oh...
43:47
it's like, "Last chance, I gotta get down on this game." Last chance, I wanna, I wanna have some actions- Yes... let me put it in there.
43:52
Um, what do you, what would you say is your, you know, if your percentage pie of how much time you spend in a s- in a ca- in a standard sportsbook versus this now?
44:00
I would say standard sportsbook betting almost all the time. Five minutes before a game starts, I'm just living on the exchanges. Living on, okay. Yeah. Gotcha. Right before the game starts.
44:10
Then you g- gravitate, then you migrate to the exchanges. Yes. Gotcha. Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports. Um, great stuff about the Super Bowl props. We'll throw that up on social for sure.
44:21
Um, and then I'll talk to you on Wednesday for the, uh, Vegas Lifestyle pod. Tell you how to get Diamond card. Lots of free stuff, free vacation to The Bahamas. Out of Shins casinos, out of pennies.
44:30
[laughs] Steve Fezzik style. Money Moves is next with Joy from Visa, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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