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Jan 29, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 29, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | January 29, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. This is a Numbers Game.
0:23
Un partido de numeros, for those listening in Spanish. I like when we go in Español. Yeah, well, that's for everybody. This show's for everybody is what it is. That's Kelly Bidlin. Me gusta mucho. [laughs] Okay.
0:32
[laughs] Let's not, let's not recite your seventh grade dialogue. Adonde vas? Tos? A clase. Um, great show today.
0:39
Matt Cox will be here from, uh, Three Man Weave, talk a little college basketball with us, the old baloncesto, uh, Kelly. JVT, our senior NBA analyst, to talk both NBA and Super Bowl LIX. Mm-hmm. This just in.
0:53
What are we now? One, two, three, four, uh, 11 days away. No, stop playing that game, man. [laughs] Still, still 11 days away from Super Bowl LIX. Uh, Kelly's got some golf.
1:01
How about some Pebble Beach preview a little later on this hour? We will do that as well. And, uh, hour number two will be packed with, uh, with guests as well. Um, you know, Paul Carr on a soccer heater.
1:13
Jonathan Davis, how about some hockey? How about some midweek hockey- Let's go... from Jonathan Davis, um, VSiN NHL betting analyst. And then Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke. Everybody will be around for that.
1:23
Um, before we do anything else, though, uh, can we go a little country clubbing with some tennis plays that are still not, uh, that still haven't started? Yeah. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah.
1:32
Uh, that's a good way to get you going on Wednesday morning. Again, imagine being these background actors here. You're not even the main actors in a B-roll, uh, shoot. How much do you think they get paid for that?
1:45
It's a great question. Probably 50 bucks, something like that.
1:48
Better question, you think if one of those old folks right here saw, happened to, happened to stumble upon VSiN and saw them, do you think they would call their agent and be like, "I'm not getting paid enough money.
1:57
I need more money"? No. No? No, no, 'cause we're using it properly. Okay. We're not technically making any money off of that, so it's okay. Okay. [laughs] It's just a question.
2:06
Uh, so I don't usually bet indoor hards necessarily as much as I do outdoor hard courts in tennis, uh, but when the numbers come up, the numbers come up, and so we had four plays last night, two of which, they were all dogs, by the way, four dogs, uh, two of which already played last night.
2:20
They split. Should have gotten both of them, but a, a gacking, a gacking in one of these, uh, two matches, uh, led to a split, which is still, uh, you know, okay.
2:30
We have two more that haven't been played yet, and that's where I'm getting to here.
2:33
So this morning, if you're interested in some tennis, random tennis action in indoor hard courts in Europe, well, this is the place for you. Where, where, where are we in Europe?
2:43
We're, on the men's side, we're in Linz, uh, excuse me, on the ladies' side, we're in Linz, Austria. Ooh. We're also in Singapore, which is where the matches were last night. Okay.
2:52
Uh, and then on the men's side, we're in, uh, Montpellier, France. Very nice. Very nice on the pronunciation. Uh, I don't know if I was doing it right. Uh, here's what's still to come.
3:01
Rebeka Sramkova I have, uh, over Anastasia Potapova. Uh, Sramkova is probably, you probably get only a few cents worse than what I got it at last night. Again, all these at vsin.com/picks for subscribers.
3:17
Every host, every guest, every sport for subscribers, all of our plays at vsin.com/picks. Uh, Rebeka Sramkova at plus 159 over Anastasia Potapova. That is in, uh, Linz, Austria.
3:30
And then also this morning, and it's about, it's sort of like right after we go off the air, sometime after that, uh, in France, Dominic Koepfer, I don't really understand this line at all, and you actually will get it a couple pennies better than mine, I think.
3:43
Mm-hmm. Uh, I'm on Dominic Koepfer at plus 106 over, uh, Alexander Bublik, which Prime Bublik, which I didn't think I'd have that phrase this morning. Yeah. Prime- Prime Bublik.
3:52
Prime Bublik, I would never, uh, fade him here, but he has been far away from his prime for quite a bit now. So Koepfer at plus 106, I really don't understand why he's the dog.
4:01
Does feel like it's been quite a while since I've seen, uh, Bublik on one of our graphics, and, uh, he is, you're right, you can get plus 110- Yeah. There you go... on, uh, Koepfer right now. Few pennies better.
4:10
And seen at DraftKings, th- that's plus 110 at DraftKings, and then, um, Sramkova plus 150. Bublik, uh, most famous for hating anything that's not hardcore tennis.
4:20
Like, he openly, if like he's on clay, he's like- Really?... "This is stupid." Like, he'll do that kind of thing. All right. That's kind of awesome, actually. Yeah.
4:26
'Cause, 'cause I've kind of wondered about that, like [laughs] He's that guy.
4:29
Like, there's gotta be, like you always talk about the pe- you know, the p- people that are better on a certain surface, but like you have to be, there's, there's gotta be a line that gets crossed with how bad you are on some surfaces.
4:40
He, he feels that whoever invented clay court tennis, now keep in mind, like clay, the origins was to like cover over grass 'cause the weather, 'cause grass wouldn't work out in some climates.
4:50
So they like, "Let's put c- let's put clay over this. We won't have to worry about it as much." So he's like, "Whoever came up with that idea is ridiculous. We should never be playing on this surface." I agree with him.
4:58
Okay. There you go. I agree with him. Sramkova and Koepfer, if you're interested in some early morning tennis action.
5:03
Now, the other thing that happens around here, and this is going all the way back to the Betting Dork podcast and the Beating the Book podcast, which by the way, Vegas lifestyle podcast after the show today, 14th annual with Meltzer like seltzer, Mark Meltzer, Steve Fezzik, and Bill Krackomberger.
5:18
How about that? Wow. Yeah.
5:20
Uh, but, uh, going back to the Betting Dork days, going back to the Beating the Book, uh, podcast days, and of course right here on a Numbers Game, we have, uh, had a little bit of a cottage industry, a history of really owning Super Bowl halftimes.
5:32
Yeah, you have. Uh, Bruno Mars was the most sort of, you know, uh, uh, in sync with, which is to say that, uh, not only could we like nail his first song and his last song, but like his hairdo.
5:43
Remember the pompadour one? Mm-hmm. And yeah, these are low-limit offshore things. I think DraftKings started to do first song now, did they? Oh, wait. You know what? Do I have that, do I have that right?
5:52
I think, I think you're right. They did last year, right? I think so. Anyway, so, so legalized sportsbooks tr- starting to drift into this. Um, Katy Perry, we, we hit that year very easily.
6:02
Um, now here's the thing, though. As the years have gone on, I must admit the sort of Waterloo of this was, do you remember the year that Coldplay did the halftime show? [laughs] Waterloo. Yeah, yeah, I do. Yeah. Yeah.
6:15
Good reference. [laughs] A little Napoleon reference for you.
6:17
The, uh, the, the, the, the Coldplay one was I, I remember saying, okay, Viva La Vida, which is their biggest hit, which is, I will rule the world, na, na, na. You know that. Yeah, I'm actually glad you did that- Yeah...
6:28
'cause I don't know any of the na- any of these names. If that did, he did, in its entirety it was the first song.
6:34
But before they sang Viva La Vida, he got on his knee and sang two bars of another Coldplay song, Yellow, and so Yellow got the money. So once that happened, now it's kind of like, okay- Isn't it kind of a thing?
6:47
You can't be as confident. Well, that brings us to Kendrick Lamar, Super Bowl LIX, which is where I'm getting to now, trying to guide folks to a proper bet here on Kendrick Lamar.
6:57
I have a feeling there is a large possibility of that kind of thing happening. Mm. That's what I'm worried about.
7:02
Now, just to give you a little bit of, you know, the first two days this has been out, the first two days this is... By the way, I take this very seriously.
7:08
For those listening who are like, "Why is he talk-" I take this very seriously.
7:11
Um, the line movement so far, and again, when we talk about line movement, this isn't Spanky coming in with tens of thousands of dollars moving [laughs] moving a football line. Right, yeah.
7:19
This is, like, couple dudes putting down 250 bucks on something that probably moves dramatically. But I do think that the first move makes sense.
7:26
A couple folks went in there and bet on Humble, Kendrick Lamar's, uh, 2017 smash Humble. It's his most streamed song of all time, Kelly. I know you know that. Uh, over two billion streams on Humble.
7:38
Humble now is the favorite at minus 200. What a great-looking graphic from Ryan Mandela. That's a great graphic. That's almost- It's like he cares more about the halftime show- Hey...
7:47
than, than our, our glorious golf de- tournament detail graphics. [laughs] I can, I can tell how interested you are by the fact you're like, "Wow, great graphic."
7:53
Sorry, it's distracting, but it's a great-looking graphic. Um, so Humble minus 200, that is your current favorite, again, with 11 days to go. Now, here's the thing. Here's the thing.
8:03
I have a feeling, i- first of all, if it's going to be that, I'm not gonna recommend a bet on that at this point, because, uh, it could be, but I have a feel- I'm gonna say there's a, I'm gonna make a safe choice, and then I'm gonna make a more sort of frisky choice.
8:16
Okay. All right. The safe choice for me is the two to one, the plus 200 on Not Like Us. Are you familiar with Not Like Us? No. I do know Humble. I don't know that I know Not Like Us. Okay.
8:26
Not Like Us is his, one of his, he has a couple of these. Right. It's one of his Drake diss songs. Are you familiar that Drake and Kendrick Lamar, they have themselves a beef? Yes. All right.
8:39
For those who don't know, it's a big beef between Kendrick Lamar, I think the kids still call it beef, don't they? Uh, Kendrick Lamar and, uh, Drake.
8:45
It started, you know, back in the day, I don't know if you care about this, but somehow I know this, uh, Kendrick Lamar was, uh, was kind of a nobody, and then Drake had him on his tour. He was, like, opening for Drake.
8:55
Uh, and then, I don't know, like, at some point, like, I think Drake went off with, uh, J. Cole, another rapper, and they're like, "Hey, like, big three, us two and, and Kendrick Lamar."
9:05
And Kendrick Lamar is like, "Big three? What about big me?"
9:08
'Cause you know, if you and Matt Brown, let's just use our primetime action partner, if you guys went off and you s- casually included me in a big three, I'd be like, "Hey, thanks, guys.
9:15
That was really considerate of you." [laughs] But not Kendrick Lamar. He's like, "No, it's about me." Which is, like, a rap thing, right? So he wants to be number one. Yeah. It was always kind of playful.
9:23
It wasn't really like a, like a- Right... hostility thing. But Drake kind of took it that way, and he would throw in little jabs in some of his stuff. Anyway, it escalated, and here we are.
9:32
And now Kendrick Lamar has, like, two songs with over a billion streams that are just murdering Drake, verbally speaking. And, um, Not Like Us is the, is the banger of the two. Euphoria is the other one.
9:44
Now, Euphoria, which is way well down on the list at, like, 33 to 1, this is what I'm worried about. Mm.
9:50
I'm worried about that he could play a couple bars of the slow jam in Euphoria with Teddy Pendergrass, by the way, the sample, and then go to Not Like Us. But at, the safe play is Not Like Us. You're familiar with that?
10:01
Dun, dun, dun, dun? No. No? I'll have to look it, I'll have to look it up during the break. Okay. Um, that's the one where the, uh, the scathing, uh, the scathing [laughs]
10:12
scathing, uh, line is, "Trying to strike a chord and it's probably a minor." [laughs] And he lets it marinate. Anyway, uh, you know, 'cause Drake, never mind. Uh, you don't need to know that.
10:22
So Not Like Us is, is the safe play, I think, at two to one, at plus 200. But I would take a flyer on a couple long shots.
10:29
The, the Euphoria scenario, which I just mentioned, which he could play right before that as a first song. I don't know. The other- 33 to 1 on that one...
10:37
more than that, though, the frisky play, Not Like Us is a safe one.
10:41
I think the frisky play could be, um, Swimming Pools, which is at seven to one, and the reason I say that one is, you're, you're probably familiar with Swimming Pools just by, um, he'd be like, "Kelly, drank.
10:55
Bidlin, drank." Do you know that song? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, okay. All right. Yeah. Blade, drank, right? Blade, [laughs] drank. That's it.
11:00
Yeah, so that would be, I think, the friskier play is Swimming Pools at seven to one, but Not Like Us at two to one, I think, is the safe play. That is your first song Super Bowl Halftime Show analysis. Love it. Love it.
11:11
I, I think you, uh, rightfully so pointed out the possibility of starting with one and very- Yeah... quickly transitioning to another. I worry about that. I would be worried about that as well. Yeah.
11:21
We talking about halftime. Yeah, 'cause it, it just doesn't it naturally feel like that's easier to do too with, with hip hop music like this? Like, you can start- Yes... with one- Yes...
11:28
and then easily transition, like? We talk about halftime, not the game. We talk about halftime. We will talk about the game, though, Super Bowl LIX with Jonathan Von Tobel. He's on the other side.
11:39
And then stay tuned tomorrow when I break down the, uh, Justin Baldoni, Blake Lively beef. [laughs] That'll be, we'll open the show with that tomorrow. [laughs] JVT next.
11:47
It's the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. They not like us. They not like us. Oh, sorry.
12:04
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12:25
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12:37
Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating the Book. I always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everybody.
12:42
This is Ice Cold Gambler, who says, "Do either of you guys know the reason why the NFL makes us wait until three days before the Super Bowl for the awards to be announced?
12:49
Seems like this weekend would be a more ideal time."
12:51
Uh, Jason, Ice Cold Gambler, I said the same thing last week, and I was quickly told, quickly reprimanded by somebody who said, "Obviously, Gil, the reason they wait till next week is to get as many people in to, to New..."
13:03
Well, he didn't say it this way, but I, I've, I've finessed it a little bit, is to get as many of the potential winners to New Orleans as possible for the game itself, for, for the, for the spectacle that is Super Bowl week.
13:15
Okay. So they can announce them with those guys present. Whoever- I guess that kind of makes sense, but that would be more the reason behind, like, why did...
13:21
Why, why, how did they decide when to put the awards show, right? That would be the reason for that order. Well, coz- cozy it up to the Super Bowl as close as possible- Yeah. Yeah... I guess is what they're saying.
13:30
Duck Fan for Life, OregonGuy71, "The only thing more impressive than Wes Reynolds' golf betting run is Gil's pronunciation of tennis players and venues." Thank you very much.
13:37
Russell Smith, "Just an FYI, your four tennis picks are not on the VSiN Pro page. Thanks for the two picks this morning." Is that true? This is always a thing.
13:45
You usually have to click on my name and then they'll appear. We have to check on that. Yeah, I'm not sure. Andre's getting them in right now. We're, we'll check on that.
13:51
JasonH11, "The heck with the halftime show, I'm going country clubbing. Hit it." [laughs] Thank you. Bruce Dobigan, "Kelly riffing on the graphic while Gil manfully struggles- [laughs]...
14:00
to talk Kendrick Lamar is peak of Numbers Game. Inquiring minds want to know, in one word describe the color of Fezzik's hair." [laughs] That was random. Bob- Brown. Uh, I don't know about that.
14:11
Bobby Knuckles, "This has to be the hippest segment of a Numbers Game, like, ever." Uh, Mills on Deck, "Amazing breakdown on the Kendrick Lamar versus Drake beef." Thank you. You're very welcome.
14:19
You're, you're very welcome. Uh, Gil, "Breaking down the Kendrick and Drake beef might be an all-time ANG moment. Fantastic, my man." Thank you. That was very well done.
14:27
Oh, it j- 'Cause I remembered it, like, a little bit, but you really gave the full explanation. Now I remember it fully. Well, no, I, I really meant the part about, like, the J... And by the way, J.
14:34
Cole was like, "This is stupid. I'm leaving this beef," right? [laughs] Like, 'cause I mean, J. Cole's too smart for that. But it, literally, if you and Matt Brown were like, "You know, Matt, you and me are the best.
14:42
You know what? No, you, me, and Gil are the big three," I'd be like, "Hey, thanks, guys. That's great." [laughs] "Really appreciate it." Not Kendrick. Uh, Joe S- Do, do you think you could lead with a diss track, though?
14:50
[laughs] Well, so here's the thing. Drake is suing him for this. I, I- I feel like that lawsuit would only get more complicated- It, uh-... than if you played it at a Super Bowl halftime show. It's a banger.
15:03
That's interesting. I think that's something to keep in mind when betting this. That's a good point. JoeC714. Thank you for the shirt, Joe C. Oh, Joe C with the gifts.
15:12
"This is why Gil is the to- uh, this is why Gil is the talk... This is why Gil is the something. Talking about Kendrick Lamar on a gambling show. Kelly just lost all his cool points with me. A minor." Joe C.
15:23
[laughs] Yeah. Yeah. Says you, you lost your only cool points. Thank you, Joe C. Rick Olier, "Hello, Jets Aaron Rodgers. Let me introduce you to current day hip hop Gil. Don't worry, Gil.
15:32
I'm only in my mid-30s, and even I'm like, 'Oh, that guy? Who?' Chiefs money line, let's go." I don't think I understood that one. I, the, the- Yeah... tough part with these is, like, you know the songs.
15:40
This is where, like, Gil has to sing them for me- Right... 'cause you know the songs. I don't know the dang titles, though. Yeah.
15:44
Numbers Guys, "I couldn't find your tennis picks this morning, but they're there now, so let's go clubbing. Looking forward to Kelly letting us back in later in the show. Matsuyama for the win."
15:53
And Stringfellow Hawk, "I like the opening mel- uh, melody angle. How much not like us can he do? It's not radio friendly. Also, what is Kelly listening to? He's less than helpful in this, on this front."
16:02
[laughs] JBT joins us. He's very helpful. He is our senior NBA analyst, but he knows himself some Kendrick Lamar. Joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @meJBT.
16:11
What say you, Jonathan Von Tobel? Um, so I threw, I saw the list. Uh, first off, if you're putting money on, uh, Money Trees to open the Super Bowl, um, I'll book it for you.
16:20
I don't think there's any shot that Money Trees is gonna be the opening, uh, track. But I will say this, uh, I think All The Stars is a sneaky one to potentially open up with. We know that Sza's gonna be there.
16:30
She's on that track. Uh, it is a mainstream song that was part of the Black Panther soundtrack, if you remember the movie, the MCU movie.
16:37
So I think that probably hits a lot of people right in the right spot, right where a lot of people are, uh, familiar with it.
16:43
I also am kind of surprised, um, I feel like King Kunta's probably a little bit more popular and has a pretty nifty riff to start and could be a pretty good opener, uh, for Kendrick as well. But I was surp- 20-1.
16:54
It, uh, King Kunta? Yeah. Okay. Is All The Stars listed? All The Stars is not- Yeah, that, so that's the other problem No, yeah, yeah. Yeah. 66 to 1.
17:03
There is a bigger possibility of something not listed playing s- first than there is for any other- Yeah... artist, I think. 'Cause he also, he does feature on a lot of stuff. And let, you want a real wild card?
17:14
You want a real wild card. Are you ready for this? Taylor Swift, Bad Blood? Yes. How did I guess? Yep. I'm- I mean, you see it, right? 'Cause he, he made that, that song sucks. Like, the Taylor Swift version sucks.
17:24
And so if you're gonna put Kendrick on that and then have the, his version c- to go, uh, it's, you know, Chiefs are in the Super Bowl. We'll see.
17:31
But, um, I definitely think that All The Stars is a sneaky good to find its way maybe closer to the top with, uh, with Sza actually performing. So that's your, that's your bet, All The Stars? That's your- Yeah. Okay.
17:40
I don't, I don't know if I've caught this fine print before on these, uh, Gil. Uh, any wager placed after this becomes public knowledge will be considered as no action.
17:48
[laughs] Yeah, so what that is, is w- you know, they figure out the, uh, the Friday night before the Super Bowl, they usually have- Yep... the first rehearsal, and so the word gets out. Right.
17:57
So if you're placing your bet, th- all of a sudden, if there's an onslaught of the correct answer Saturday morning, these jokers will refund them all. Yeah, if I can call them. Mm. Am I allowed to call them jokers?
18:06
[laughs] I believe so. Yes. I think I just did. [laughs] Yeah, I think so. Uh, okay, but I wanna get to s- I wanna crescendo to Super Bowl 59.
18:12
NBA tonight, uh, before we get your pick, I just wanna ask you about, um, when we're talking about... Well, first of all, let me just go broadly. The Spurs and the Pacers were in Paris. Is that correct? Mm-hmm. Yes.
18:26
So they have had four days off, but they had to come back from Paris. Do you bet unders when it comes to those two teams now after that travel? I mean, I don't think so.
18:36
Because if you remember, so it was after, um, Milwaukee had their game postponed against New Orleans, right?
18:41
And NBA media were kind of painting the Milwaukee Bucks as like some, "Oh my God, how could you go through this? This is terrible, the situation."
18:48
And Giannis had this great quote, he's like, "Look, we all have our same- we all have our own seats on the plane." [laughs] Like, it's all kind of nice. Like, we're not really going through a ton.
18:55
I don't think it's that bad to make that trip. They give them adequate rest.
18:59
Um, and if you remember last year, a team like Cleveland, Cleveland actually went out to Paris, played those games, and that started their run where they were actually ripping off wins left and right. Hmm. Okay.
19:08
So I don't think it's that, um, arduous of a deal to come back and make those trips. Excellent use of ard- of arduous as well, by the way. Spurs and, uh, Pacers both back in action tonight.
19:16
Pacers hosting the, uh, the Pistons, they're favorites. Spurs, dogs at home against the Clippers. What did you land on tonight? Uh, so I got two so far.
19:24
Uh, I did bet the Minnesota Timberwolves here against the Phoenix Suns. Uh, we've seen this flip. They're, they're small of road favorites. Kevin Durant on the injury report, uh, with a thumb injury.
19:32
We'll see if he ends up playing or not. Uh, but the... If you look at the last two weeks for Minnesota, they've been playing some pretty good basketball. Straight up wise, only four and three.
19:39
But if you're looking at net rating, they're se- they're seventh best in the NBA, outscored opponents by about seven and a half points every 100 possessions. Defense have been playing pretty well.
19:46
They've been covering games by nearly six points per game. Uh, this team's really rounding into form, especially defensively, and their offense is starting to get better.
19:52
And we've seen that Phoenix has not been playing particularly well on defense. And we know, I think, that games like this kind of bring the best out of guys like Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves.
20:00
Only injury for them is Donte DiVincenzo. Think they're in a good spot there to get that win over a Suns team that might not have Kevin Durant here tonight.
20:07
Uh, and the other, uh, we'll give our boy Scott Seidenberg some credit on this one. Uh, the, uh, Boston Celtics, guys, after a straight-up loss, have been a, a relatively solid team, especially on defense.
20:17
If you look back on what they've been able to do here, I think they're floating around 11 and three.
20:20
Uh, teams, uh, facing Boston after a straight-up loss are now, I think, 11 to three to the under on their team total here. And Chicago's not gonna have Zach LaVine. We'll see if Coby White finds his way out there.
20:30
Uh, he is questionable to play. But, uh, Bulls under 108 and a half on the team total, the other bet that I have tonight. So Timberwolves minus one and a half, Bulls under 107 and a half team total.
20:39
All right, and a shout-out to Scotty Seidenberg on that as well. Yeah. Um, all right. Super Bowl 59, who you taking? Uh, are you making an MVP bet? Are you making a prop bet? What are you doing?
20:49
Yeah, so I have a couple of bets already that I've made. I did take Philadelphia money line. My thought, I think that this is gonna head toward Philly at some point, sooner rather than later.
20:56
Um, so I think that taking plus 110, my logic here, is that this is gonna shrink by the time we get, uh, to kickoff. Uh, I think that there's a shot that this gets to pick. Maybe Philly minus one. We'll see.
21:05
I think Philadelphia is the better team, uh, but I also think that the Chiefs deserve to be favored because of the non-data point, which is they just win every single playoff game imaginable.
21:13
And at some point you have to give them respect for what they've been able to achieve.
21:16
But I think on paper, if I were to ask you in a vacuum like, "Hey, just evaluate these rosters, remove the thought that this team has won every single playoff game they've ever played in," essentially- [laughs]...
21:25
uh, a- and, and tell me which one would be favored on a neutral, I think most would say it's Philly. So, uh, I have Philly, uh, the money line plus 110.
21:31
I also added something interesting yesterday, um, that MGM has, will, you know, either team, right? So Chiefs or Eagles for both of them, will they convert a fourth down? The yes on Philly is minus 1,000- Wow...
21:42
to convert a fourth down. Wow. And I think obviously the tush push is involved there, right? Like they think- Yeah. Yeah... but you have to have a short yardage situation- Yeah... in order for that to happen.
21:51
I thought plus 550 on the no was worth playing. I thought that was pretty high. So I took no on Philly to convert... uh, to not convert a fourth down at plus 550 yesterday. I don't hate that at all.
22:01
I, I totally get- Yeah. I love it... I to- I totally get why it's priced that way for the, for exactly how, what, the reasons you state. But plus 550, worth a flyer. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah.
22:11
Um, somet- [laughs] sometimes we do get a little out of control with these. But it, it's, uh... Yeah, they have to get in that situation first for it to be, uh, properly priced. Uh- And by the way, real quick. Yeah.
22:21
You saw the tush push get turned away, uh, right? That's why they were playing the games with your Commanders, right? Trying to get them to jump offsides and get closer. They turned it away twice.
22:29
Frankie Luvu going all Superman. Yeah, no, they turned it away twice. They did, absolutely did. Um, it is not infallible. It is not infallible. Jon, appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. Good to talk to you guys.
22:40
Thank you. Jonathan Montelb chiming in on Kendrick Lamar's first song at halftime as well. Let's go. Didn't see that coming. He was definitely the better person to talk to about that.
22:47
Matty Cox coming up, maybe he's got a thought, and college hoops next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:27
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23:35
Use promo code ANG. P- A and G as in A numbers game. Poor Adam Burke, he just sits at home, uh, pulling out his hair waiting for you [laughs] fr- waiting for people like you to get back to him on this stuff. Sorry.
23:45
So sorry. A and G. It's, you get a full ye- uh, year of VSiN Pro, that is, for just $181. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
23:51
No, I totally texted him, 'cause on the way in, he was on, uh, on, uh, with Dave and Jensen on, uh, By the Books, and I'm like, "Oh, I think I missed a deadline."
23:59
So I texted him and he goes, "You didn't miss a deadline, Phil." [laughs] "Just, just give me your pick." [laughs] I'm like, "Here you go." Sorry. Sorry, Adam. All it was was final score- That's all he wanted... and MVP.
24:08
Final score and MVP, so I texted it to him. Yeah. I think when he first sent the email, like, "Let me just send this in right now before I forget." He did say to me,
24:16
and I think he said on air as well, a lot of VSiN hosts on the over here. Like a lot of VSiN hosts- I did, he did, he did say that... say it's gonna be high scoring. Yeah, he did say that. Now, here's the thing.
24:25
I love all of our VSiN hosts, but when, when everybody, when too many people are on one thing, what's your next thought? Uh-oh. Yeah, go the other way. Yeah. Let's go the other way. But I don't...
24:34
Like, so, so my final score prediction Teaser. Spoiler- Ooh... spoiler alert Betting guide promo Spoiler alert, Gil Yeah. Uh-huh. I would technically be on the over two, but am I betting that? No, I'm not betting it.
24:44
You're not betting. So that, that's, that's the problem. You also got, you gotta wait for the, uh, the guide and go th- go through all of it to check out what we actually bet.
24:51
We get tweets of Beating The Book always appreciated. Anthony @aperperiello, I hope I'm saying that right, "Didn't expect a recap of the Kendrick, Drake beef on ANG this morning, but I'm here for it.
25:00
Also, let's keep the Caesars Rewards talk with Fezzik to a minimum this year on the, uh, Vegas Lifestyle [laughs] Podcast." [laughs] Thank you for that request. I, actually, I'm taking, I'm taking feedback.
25:09
Was that too much for you, Fezzik? Oh, my God. F- part of the Vegas Lifestyle Podcast, it's our, again, it's the 14th annual Beating The Book Vegas Lifestyle Podcast, which, uh, which comes after this show today.
25:19
Crack, Fezzik, Mark Meltzer, like Seltzer. Seltzer's been on every single year we've ever done it. And, uh, part of it is Steve Fezzik [laughs] explaining how to, how to chance casinos out of every penny that he can get.
25:32
Wait, wait, which is f- Yeah... which is fine and helpful for a lot. I'm laughing at the specific- Yes... Caesars one because it is like, it's like, "Hey, would you like to get to Steve Fezzik's level at Caesars?"
25:42
This is- All you gotta, all you gotta do is live here. Yeah. Go to Caesars every single day. Exactly. Do this, this, and this. He's right. He's right.
25:48
This is why Meltzer and him have a little bit of a Drake, Kendrick beef going, though. Oh. Because Meltzer is like, "Yeah, not everybody has, like, five large just throw out at it every day, Steve." Right.
25:59
So they get into that kind of thing. Uh, Joe C714, "Gil equals the GOAT." Thank you, man. I appreciate that.
26:04
Steve the Proxy, "The theory behind Drake suing is to get the NFL to block Kendrick from playing Not Like Us or Drake might try to sue the NFL as well. Super petty [laughs]..." He says, "Super petty Canadian behavior."
26:15
[laughs] Why you gotta take C- why you gotta bring Cana- all of Canada into it? Uh, as of last week, he said, "Drake pulled a J. Cole and dropped the lawsuit." I did not know that.
26:24
Sway, [laughs] he said, "Sway didn't tell you all that?" [laughs] That's great. That's... Wait, wait. What, but now does that, does that make it more or less likely that he'd play that song? No, make it...
26:33
What he's saying is it makes it more likely now. It's like it's not gonna happen. He's f- all systems go. Here's the thing with Not Like Us. He's either playing it at the beginning or he's playing it at the end.
26:40
But, but if- I'm telling you, it's one of the two... but if he pulled the lawsuit, shouldn't that be, like, a deescalation of the beef? No, I think it's all systems go. Oh, okay. Well then, yeah.
26:48
He was just trying to get a better- I, I- Yeah, uh, that's what I, that's how I read it. Bobby Knuckles- Well then you're right. It's going right away... rap names for the Numbers Game crew, Lil' Gil and Moneygun Kelly.
26:56
Brandon Kyles, "Never thought I'd be interested in the halftime show's first song, but here we are. So many interesting angles, and JVT's Bad Blood long shot makes total sense."
27:04
I don't know if it does 'cause I don't think he'd start with the Taylor. He'll, he'll, he'll include the Taylor Swift song Bad Blood, where, which he, uh, is, uh, is part of. But I don't think he starts with it.
27:13
Which means we're getting a Taylor Swift appearance? Uh, we might. We have to.
27:17
Well, the th- I hate when they sing songs like that and they don't include- But then the problem is the Chiefs play, and then it's gonna be like, "Oh, you see? She's even in the halftime show. It's all rigged."
27:24
Uh, you know we're not getting that. And finally, Leisure Suit Kobe. I'd just lean into it at this point. He said, "Guarantee his first song will be We Gonna Be Alright. It suits the Super Bowl vibe.
27:32
Kendrick Lamar is wildly overrated, and I would rather hear Gil break down the upcoming rap beef between Zach Moss and Jeff Parle beefing for their voices sounding identical. Ever notice that?" Zach Moss and Jeff Parle?
27:44
Who's Zach Moss? I was gonna ask the same thing, but I- I don't know. Okay. I should probably pre- pre-read the tweets before I go through them. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's here to talk college hoops with us.
27:52
It's Matty Cox from 3 Man Weave- Like the running back?... courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's that? Like the running back Zach Moss? [laughs] I don't know. Maybe. What up, Matty Cox? How you doing, man?
28:01
Fellas, how you doing? I thought we'd talk a little bit, uh, Vegas. I, Fezzik, I need his connections. I'm looking to... I have an open booking slot for my brother's bachelor party, all right?
28:10
So we're going the same weekend as March Madness opening weekend. Was maybe not a great idea, but my brother, but alas, here we are. We'll be at the Cosmo all day Thursday.
28:19
Would need, like, a Thursday welcome dinner location for the rest of the herd that arrives Thursday evening. Wow. So if you or Fezzik wanna hook it up, just let me know. I'm open. Or- D-...
28:28
if any of you on Twitter who feel, uh, so obliged to be, uh, to be a good Samaritan, let me know- Did M-... 'cause I'm, uh, I'm lost for words...
28:33
did Matty Cox just flex and let everybody know, "I'ma be here during Ma- March Madness, so check me out"? Dang. Eh, maybe a little bit. Yeah. Annual tradition. Annual tradition, Gil. A little bit. Annual tradition, yeah.
28:42
But I'ma tell you what Steve would tell you, Matt.
28:44
This is what you just, you just go to Caesars, go to a craps table, buy in for, like, five grand, sit there and get free drinks for a while, and then just lose it all and complain that you want a free drink, uh, or free dinner, okay?
28:53
Yeah. Yeah. That's the way to go. Yeah. Okay. My brother's friends are all highly successful, uh- [laughs]... individuals, so I think they'll be fine with that. All right. Definitely. I like that. Right thing to do.
29:00
My God, this guy. My goodness. Uh, by the way, uh, St. John's holding Georgetown to 41 last night. That was riveting basketball. Let me just start there.
29:08
[laughs] Uh, but let me, let me ask you more, more clearly about two teams that performed last night.
29:12
One lost, one won, and I'm curious if you view those performances as meaningful, particularly Tennessee getting beat by Kentucky. Is it, "Oh, same old Tennessee, they're not really a contender"?
29:24
And then with Kansas unable to shake UCF, did, did either of those two mean something to you? Uh, yes and no. Both same, uh, similar situation. Key point guards for both sides were out.
29:37
DeJuan Harris missed the entire game for Kansas, and then Ziegler got hurt for Tennessee. Still, I think they have real flaws.
29:43
Um, I mean, I think Tennessee is more, like, higher on the elite totem pole than Kansas, frankly, 'cause I think their defense is that good, but they still have that unavoidable scoring drought propensity that everyone knows and, and, and hates when they watch them in the tournament.
29:57
It seems like Rick Barnes gets way too much ink about that and not about all the other good stuff he does. But I, I'm not gonna read too much into it, but I do think there are some flaws with both teams.
30:04
And, and Kansas, um, you know, they just don't have that, that same dominant gear. I think they're a little too old school. Uh, I mean, they are an old team. They're too old school in how they're constructed.
30:14
They, they, they struggle against more modern types of teams. Uh, UCF last night exposed that. Um, so they need more shooting, more dynamic play making. That's kind of my issue with Kansas.
30:24
Um, let me ask you one more question before we get your picks, which is, and I guess this comes up now every year, but there's so many good SEC teams, right, uh, at the top of college basketball this year.
30:34
W- February is, what, uh, three days away, which means that conference tournaments are right around the corner.
30:39
D- does your thought on conference tournaments, has it changed in recent years where you're like, "There are so many good teams. If they go all out..." I mean, it's always been a thing, right?
30:49
Like, if you, if you play too many consecutive games in a conference tournament, does it hamper you for the Big Dance? Do you view something like the SEC tournament with that in mind?
30:58
You know, I wonder, there, I feel like there's an angle at the old Big East Tournament similarly- Yes...
31:02
where, where you, you have teams coming off that gauntlet of a war where they treat that as, like, the national title tournament, and then the, you know, whatever the heck was after was, was whatever, right?
31:10
I don't know. We'll see. I think the SEC, um, I, I don't think it's gonna be treated like that.
31:15
I, I, I, I will wonder if any of these, like, lower seeded teams that have at-large hopes that win three or four games go to the title game, maybe a team like Georgia makes a run, or Oklahoma, and we'll see how gassed they are.
31:27
It just seems like the scheduling with the tournament, though, is more friendly and more favorable than it is to these teams.
31:31
Just like they made the adjustment, a lot of those West Coast teams, they used to kind of screw them, schedule them in the early slot going west to east.
31:38
I think they sort all, they sort that out where it's a little more equitable now. There's not a lot of great, like, weird travel scheduling, tired, fatigue-type spots as there used to be, like, 10-plus years ago.
31:49
So I think that all will kind of wash out, frankly. All right, what are the picks tonight, sir? I only got one. Sorry to- Oh, okay... to bore you. You're not boring me.
31:56
Yeah, it's kind of, it's a big card, but, uh, a little more selective. I like Loyola Chicago. My Blares here from, uh, from the Chi, they're going on the road to George Mason, your neck of the woods, Gil.
32:07
They're playing Tony Skinn, who George Mason fans are beating their chest about how he got the better coach than the guy, Kim English, who left us for Providence. Uh, they're not wrong.
32:15
This team's playing electric defense right now. But I think the Blares are starting to trend up. It's gonna be an ugly, gritty game. This league is very parity ridden.
32:23
Um, I know Loyola's had some injuries, but I think they're kind of a buy low here, coming off a week to prepare, get some key guys healthy. I think this is a low, ugly scoring game.
32:32
It's gonna be hard for Mason to cover a mountaintop of eight points with their offensive struggles. So that's it. One and done for me. One and done for Matty Cox.
32:40
Um, let me just ask you this, then, in closing, how many teams legitimately, in your opinion, can win the national title? More than normal, less than normal, and how many specifically?
32:50
I think it's actually less than normal, but more than normal can make deep, deep runs. Um, so if that makes... I, I think- Yeah...
32:56
we're gonna see potentially fewer first round upsets this season, but I think ultimately the Auburns, the Dukes, the Houstons, the Iowa States, and then I might throw Tennessee and maybe Illinois in that mix as well.
33:11
Maybe Florida, Texas Tech. I think that's kind of it. I'll, I'll, I'll stop right there. I, as I keep looking at my power ratings, I'm like, ah, I could put them in there.
33:17
But I think it's really Auburn, Duke, and Houston, and maybe Iowa State. I'll go with that four, 3.5, four teams. That four is your- Yeah... legit legit. Yep.
33:27
But I, I agree with the broader point, that there seems to be a, a scrum that will probably get further than normal as, as a, as a group this year. Uh- I think so, yeah... it should be, should be awesome. Yeah.
33:37
Thank you, Matt. Appreciate it, man. Thank you, fellas. Enjoy. Matt Cox at 3MW_CBB for Three Man Weave. Golf next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
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34:01
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34:28
Gil Alexander, we get tweets at the, at, uh, Beating the Book. Always grateful for your, uh, tweets.
34:33
The Better Life Tim Lawson, who is a, uh, a, the, the, not a, he is the Megapod historian, uh, he says, "Our friend Mark Meltzer has been on the Lifestyle Megapod every season since 2011." Wow.
34:47
"This is his 14th straight appearance, making him the longest-running guest in Megapod history. He's the only person who has been on every single year, and it's always the Vegas lifestyle pod."
34:56
So I, I, I knew you had done the Vegas Lifestyle pod for a long time. I did not know Meltzer was involved that many years in a row. Yes, and- Wow, that's impressive...
35:06
so I, I think the most appearances lifetime total on the show, Timmy was telling me, was, is still Joe Fortenbaugh, who used to be on a lot early on in the days, but as far as a streak of consecutive years, Mark Meltzer is your winner.
35:19
And Tim Lawson also adds, "I cannot wait for Not Like Us to be performed at the Super Bowl, and Drake has to watch an entire Super Bowl crowd sing, 'And it's probably A minor.'"
35:29
I made that sound like Coolio D's Go See the Doctor. Sorry. [laughs] Uh, The Palm Readers, "I was actually just thinking about Fez- the Fezzik pod appearance recommending buying in at craps in order to get free drinks.
35:41
Literally nobody listening is ever doing that," he says. And oh, by the way, Kelly Vinlin- Well, I'm gonna def- um, well, hold on Hold on. Before, before we get to that, can I defend Steve quick? Because that- Sure...
35:49
that's actually a genius point by Steve. Yeah. That's the, it's the you're just gonna play the pass line or n- and or nothing, you just buy in at the craps table. Just cold chill for, like, an hour. Yeah, you just chill.
35:59
Yeah, yeah. You just chill, get your drinks. Yeah. Well, Steve Fezzik not h- not particularly happy with you, Kelly. We get tweets as well as texts we get. Uh, he texts, "All right, I'm gonna come over the- [laughs]...
36:09
I'm gonna come over the top and call Kelly out here.
36:11
I will personally get Kelly his diamond card this year without him taking any real risk if he's up for it, and he doesn't even have to take me to the Bahamas with him on his free vacation."
36:19
Sounds like a deal to me, Steve, but isn't, isn't this just reinforcing the point of you have to be here? You have to live in Vegas? Here's, here's the thing with Steve Fezzik. Nobody's listening.
36:28
It's just me and you talking right now. Right, yeah. Uh, especially Fezzik. He's definitely- Doesn't that always have the issue?... he's definitely not listening. Yeah, definitely.
36:32
Um, he has a, uh, somewhat of a robotic brain that only does outgoing and sometimes doesn't take incoming. [laughs] So you just have to be aware of that.
36:39
Uh- All I, all I'm trying to say is the one person who tweeted in, it's a fair, it's a fair complaint if you don't live here in Vegas. Oh, absolutely. I agree with it. I completely agree with the point.
36:50
Meltzer has been making it for a couple years now. D Gen, Southern Gent, "I ask this with no disrespect, but have you guys actually listened to Euphoria?" Yes, I actually referenced it earlier.
36:58
That's the original diss track of Drake. He says, "Best diss I've heard since B. Rabbit revealed to a live audience that Clarence grew up privileged in a stable household."
37:05
Now, I had to ask what that was a reference to, and everybody tells me that's 8 Mile. Yes. He, he goes on to say, "Right up there with Tupac's Hit 'Em Up." That's more my, uh, strike zone.
37:15
When Tupac tried to, uh- Steve's, Steve's so angry right now... ver- verbally murder Biggie and Puffy. What's that? Steve is so angry right now [laughs] He can't stop texting me now. Oh, Steve's- Yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
37:25
Uh, it's Steve Fezzik. Colorado River Sports. Uh, let's see, do, do-do, do-do. "People who try to totally milk the free drink angle to death have zero value anyways," he says. Oh, okay.
37:33
Anyway, uh, Leisure Suit Cobia a- adds, "Apologies, Gil, I meant Zach Cohen and Geoff Parlay." Oh, you know what? JVT texted this. That's what he thought. He- Oh, Zach Cohen and Geoff Parlay, not Zach Moss.
37:44
He made a mistake. He says, says, "Somebody needs to get them to karaoke and do a duet of something. They sound eerily similar." Okay, so- Wow... so JVT texted this to me. He goes, "I think he means Zach Cohen."
37:54
Have you ever heard that before? That they, they sound alike? Yeah. Never. Me either. Nor has it occurred to me. Me neither. Yeah. It's interesting. Now I'm gonna, now I'm not gonna be able to unhear it. I, I know.
38:04
Zach's on tomorrow. Yeah. That's all we're gonna... Uh, b- uh, Gil, uh, Gil and I aren't gonna hear a thing he actually says. [laughs] Fine. We're just gonna be listening to his voice.
38:10
So Parlay, what do you think about this tennis match? [laughs] Uh, Chuckism1, "A little behind on ANG, but I've learned something. Kelly may not be up on the latest hits, but he knows all about the beef."
38:19
And then Buddhist, uh, Buddhistman chiming in as well on the, uh, Fezzik stuff. Wow, we haven't even done the podcast yet, and people are all in on Fezzik. Okay. All right. Um, ladies and gentlemen- Man, Danny Bradley.
38:30
Man, I just got one. "Kelly's a drunk mess. Accident waiting to happen." That feels personal. Oh, how'd you get that one? I, I don't know. You mean- Sorry, Danny...
38:37
do you mean to tell me that every once in a while someone on Twitter gets personal with you? I, uh... Wow, yeah. Yeah, it's impossible to believe. [laughs] It never happens.
38:45
[laughs] Ladies and gentlemen, we've, uh, country, we've gone country clubbing once already. Are we gonna go country clubbing again right now? Let's do it, 'cause we're going to Pebble Beach. Country clubbing.
38:56
[upbeat country music] This is very appropriate for Pebble Beach 'cause it's expensive. Maverick with Gil. Lot of success here. Your favorite. All right, back to Pebble we go, Gil.
39:08
Thank God they have, uh, redone this tournament, 'cause it used to be, uh...
39:12
Pebble Beach, always one of the best tournaments to watch because of the scenic views, but if you're actually a golf fan and you've had to sit through the four days of pro-am competition that they always did in the past where it's like, "Oh, look at wacky Bill Murray out there doing things."
39:25
[laughs] Like, if you're [laughs], like if you're a golf fan, you're like, "Can we just play the tournament? I got money on this thing." So they started this last year.
39:33
[laughs] You might remember last year was shortened to a three-day event 'cause the, the, uh, weather was out of control. Wyndham Clark ended up winn- winning, another win for Wes Reynolds.
39:40
As the weather tends to do there at Pebble Beach. It does. Yes. And the year before, it was 30 mile an hour winds pretty much all throughout the tournament.
39:48
So if you are handicapping this yourself at home, that is the single biggest course defense, as we like to say this week, uh, is the wind.
39:55
Now, as of right now, it looks like it's gonna be pretty calm the first couple days, but could definitely pick up, uh, over the weekend.
40:01
So f- as far as the field goes here, we are a- this is the second signature event of the, uh, of the year so far. We had the Sentry over in Hawaii to start. So this is 80 players, no cut event.
40:13
Uh, you're gonna get all 80 playing all four rounds.
40:15
They will play the first two rounds as part of the pro-am, uh, and then they kick out, uh, all the, all the guys who spent all the money, and then they go play with just the pros on Saturday and Sunday.
40:25
So if you're- Look how, look how beautiful that is. It's gorgeous. Yeah. If you're unfamiliar with the course, uh, things to know about it, it is one of the small, uh, shortest courses in the rotation for the PGA Tour.
40:34
Very small greens. You have wider fairways.
40:37
Despite all of the scenic views of the ocean, you have very little holes where water actually comes into play, where, like, you actually might get a penalty, uh, for hitting it, uh, into the water.
40:47
So something just to keep in mind. Wide fairways, though distance really doesn't help you here much at all because it is a shorter track.
40:53
So really the only thing I was looking for stat-wise, um, are guys that are accurate off the tee. Just get it in the fairway, which even that you don't need to focus in on too much, 'cause these are wider fairways.
41:04
Uh, you wanna look... W- uh, g- this is a big-time second shot golf course. Guys that are strong on approach, they can put it really close to the pin.
41:10
It's going to be a lot of wedges, so look at your guys that can hit wedges well, uh, that are living in that kind of 75 to 125 range. Par fives you have to score. This actually is a tough par four, uh, course.
41:22
Uh, the par fives, though, you gotta go out there and score on, 'cause they are some of the more scoreable holes. Uh, with the small greens, small greens, this naturally happens, Gil, where guess what?
41:30
You're not gonna hit as many greens because they're so tiny. Around the greens play is gonna come into play a little bit more here than what you see on a normal week of PGA Tour.
41:38
So you wanna factor that in as well, uh, when you're looking at guys. Okay, Gil, I had one of the... I think I talked myself in and out of bets for two hours yesterday with this tournament because- Uh-oh.
41:47
That's never good... Scottie Scheffler's back. Yes, he is, but we don't know if the hand- We don't know about the hand... is an issue. It's a wrist, right? He, he cut the, cut his hand. Cut his hand.
41:56
So, yeah, and if we're talking, this is gonna be a putting contest, and around the green play is important here. Last checked, hands are important for golf, especially important if you're putting and chipping, okay?
42:04
Let, let me Google that, see if it's true. [laughs] Yeah. Um, but having said all of that- Yeah... and you get the variance of the wind, you get the variance of a putting contest, right?
42:14
But when I saw five-and-a-half to one on Scottie Scheffler- Oh... I said to myself- Auto. Auto bet... that's what I said to myself at first, Gil. Oh, no.
42:21
But then I started factoring in the rest of this, and I'm like, "You know what? There's too much variance here. I'm not gonna bet it." But I could, I could very much regret it.
42:29
So if you wanted to bet Scottie Scheffler and that be your only outright bet, I do not blame you at all. I got very close to doing it. This could be the only time you see over five to one on Scottie Scheffler all year.
42:39
So I went another route. I decided to skip him. I am going... The other guy who jumped off the board immediately to me, Hideki Matsuyama. And he o- he's already won once this year.
42:48
I could not believe where his odds were at compared to some of the other guys in the field. Um, you're talking about his three stars this year, a T32, a T16, and a win already. Last 36 rounds, he's third in scrambling.
42:59
Top, one of the top players in all those wedge ranges that I'm looking at. In sixth in Birdie or Betters gained. He, uh, he, his game, he might not have played here a bunch before, fits perfectly at this course.
43:08
So Matsuyama, I played outright 23 to 1 and then a top 10 on him at plus 190. Going back to my boy Collin Morikawa. Did miss last week because he was sick. A lot of guys were sick at the Farmers Insurance Open.
43:19
That is notable this week. But you know what I like, Gil, is Collin was sick before the tournament. Hm. It withdrew before the tournament, so I'm like, "He's got 10 days.
43:28
I think he's gonna be okay by the time we tee it up at Pebble." So 15 to 1 on him on the outright market, and a top 10 play as well for him. Tommy Fleetwood debut on the T- PGA Tour this year.
43:38
If you look at what he did on the DP World Tour during the fall, on an absolute tear. Love a top 20 bet on Tommy Fleetwood here. Not a guy you can really trust for an outright, um, but like him in the top 20 market.
43:48
Adam Scott, one of the highest rated golfers for me this week. I flirted with an outright price on him. I think I'm just gonna bet this top 20, though, at plus 225, uh, on Scott.
43:58
And then one tournament matchup for me so far. I might add more. Make sure to check in at vsin.com. Morikawa plus 105 over Rory McIlroy. Rory's first time, uh, first PGA event this year, uh, for him.
44:09
Plus, just not an ideal course for what his game is ideally suited for. All right. Pebble Beach. You ever played Pebble Beach before, by the way? No, absolutely not. I played the one hole, the last hole.
44:19
I would love to, like, run out there and play the last hole. Really? Yeah. Put it in, like, oh, I think horribly into the water the first time- [laughs]... and then miraculously on the green on my mulligan.
44:28
Oh, that's awesome. Yeah, I was like, "Oh, thank God. I think I'm good. I'm good." Was Will bun there? What's that? Was Will bun there? No. [laughs] No, he was not. Paul Carnax with soccer
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