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Jan 29, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 29, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | January 29, 2025 | Hour 2
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:10
The sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. This is my buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody, uh, hanging out.
0:21
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Uh, still to come this hour, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke, uh, giving us all his plays. Jonathan Davis on hockey.
0:30
Maybe we should require a Super Bowl thought from everybody, regardless of your sport. Oh, I think that's fair for- Right? Jonathan Davis, hockey- Yeah... but what's your Super Bowl 59 thought?
0:37
I think, uh- Paul, Paul Carr coming up on soccer, but what's your Super Bowl 59 thought? I think that's fair for, that we ask every guest from now until, uh, kickoff.
0:45
And, and every guest should give us a Kendrick Lamar choice as well. No? Not that- That, that would be fun... not that part? Yeah. Yeah. [laughs] That's right. Uh, we get tweets that beat me to the book.
0:52
Corey Henderson775, he says, uh, "After Kendrick Lamar sings that song in the Cool Mode deep voice, three days later, go see the lawyer."
1:00
Yeah, but apparently Drake dropped the lawsuit, so he won't have to see the lawyer is what we're told. DJ Jams, Jam, he, uh, is disagreeing with Jonathan Montopel about the halftime show.
1:09
He says, "All the stars, uh, will be played in the middle of the show when they bring SZA out on stage. Definitely not the first song played.
1:16
Oh, and I think they'll play Not Like Us at least three times, maybe only for 10 seconds each, but it's going down." Oh, I completely agree. Not Like Us, it's absolutely being played.
1:27
I think it's worth a bet first, but it's, it could be the last two. It could be the last song played as well, uh, instead maybe, but it's going to have a prominent place in the show. You cannot avoid it.
1:38
Kelly's nodding accordingly. Okay. He's like, "Yeah, uh-huh." The numbers, guys. Uh, regarding Fezzik and his robotic mind, "My uncle responding to my aunt's question of, 'Why won't you answer your phone?'
1:46
'This phone's for outgoing calls only.'" Yeah, that's kind of [laughs] that's kind of it.
1:50
Uh, James Sott, "Thanks, Kelly, because when Country Clubman music starts, I get to get up and dance, and my Apple Watch thanks me for standing up." Yeah, there you go.
1:59
Yeah, we're, we're just trying to make America healthier. That's what we're doing. That's right. That's what Country Clubman's all about. Tennis, golf, eh, it's secondary. You know what?
2:06
More than America, Gil, 'cause I think you can watch YouTube TV anywhere. That's true. You can- You can definitely go to vsin.com anywhere. And we certainly know that Canada, we are, we, oh, Ontario.
2:15
We are large in Ontario. Big stars in Regina. Love you, Toronto. Regi- which, what you know about Regina? Saskatchewan, man. Roughriders. Oh, okay. I thought you were, like, getting, naming streets in Toronto.
2:26
Like, "I'll meet you on the corner of Spadina and something else." You don't even remember our Saskatoon-Regina conversation- Oh, that's right... from last weekend? That's right.
2:32
And by the way, he did begin that with an R. [laughs] He did. That's a great tweet.
2:36
[laughs] Uh, ladies and gentlemen, uh, let's talk some soccer with a man who just moves the chains every time he's on the show, quietly comes on. He's like, "Oh, here's three soccer picks. You guys might enjoy these."
2:46
It's Paul Carr, everybody, from True Media Sports, and of course the host of the Expected Value podcast. He joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
2:52
By the way, I never mention it, but his Twitter is Paul Carr, cleverly, C-A-R-R, which is awesome to be able to just grab your, uh, your name on, uh, Twitter.
3:01
And of course he has The Ringer, uh, some- every once in a while now, you're doing a Ringer gambling thing. Is it regular or is it only at big events? Uh, pretty much every Monday night we record a Ringer soccer show.
3:12
Every Monday night. So we did it- Okay. Yeah. So we put our Champions League big preview up, uh, Monday night, Tuesday morning.
3:17
So you want the long form version of these thoughts and some other picks, then you can tune in there. There you go. I, it's a great pod, Gil. You love it.
3:25
I think, I think I brought it up last time for the soccer hardos, man. All I know- That's what it is... it was above my head, but it was a great conversation.
3:31
The thing about Paul is Paul is so polite that I, I'm on here, I'm always talking about True Media Networks, I'm always talking about the Expected Value podcast, but I rarely bring up the Ring- that he, the fact that he's doing this Ringer soccer gambling podcast, and that's on me, man.
3:43
That's on me. Every week. Check it out. It's all right. It's all right. Um, speaking of the Champions League, which I don't know if I've spoke of before, but let me just say speaking of, um, can you explain the format?
3:53
[laughs] Yeah. Let's just start there for the, uh, for the average American sports fan. And I know we do this a lot, but it's even more important this year because they've changed the format of the tournament.
4:05
Again, it's basically like playing the NCAA tournament at the same time as the regular season, where all these clubs are from different countries and leagues in Europe, and you take the top few and throw them into Champions League.
4:14
Uh, historically, last 20-plus years, there have been 32 teams, eight groups of four. You play the group stage in the, you know, September through December, and you're in the knockout stage in February.
4:25
This year, they expanded to 36 teams in one big group. Oh. They call it the league phase. Oh, God. So today we are getting 18 simultaneous games- Yeah. Oh, [laughs] man...
4:38
and trying to track who's where in the standings. Like, I might just stare at a live standings table all day. [laughs] Rather than watch an actual game? Watch the, yeah, watch the team little, you know- Yeah...
4:47
up, down, up, down. Paul, are they doing that, uh, what, what's like the Red Zone, uh, rip-off show they do? Yeah. Gold Zone? CBS has a, yeah, Paramount or CBS has Golazo Show they call it. Golazo.
4:58
That's the one to check out, Gil. Yeah. They basically run through all of them. Yeah. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, it's gonna be easier than trying to find games that matter as, so here's- So this is- Yeah...
5:05
this is a monster, then, global soccer day right here. I, I think so. It's, they've never done it like this before. Yeah. So we'll see. But what's at stake, so again, 36 team table or standings,
5:17
the top eight will get a bye to the round of 16, and I believe only two have clinched a top eight spot, so technically there's six up for grabs.
5:26
If you finish between ninth and 24th, then you advance to essentially the round of 32, or the playoff round. Got it. And then the bottom eight are eliminated. So there's really not much difference between ninth and 24th.
5:38
I mean, there's seeding things, but I don't think anyone's gonna worry about those too much. But if you can get in the top eight, you get a bye.
5:45
You know, it's essentially the one seed in the NFL, which is obviously huge. So that's where it could get wild with some teams trying to get in that top eight, and goal difference is your first tiebreaker, so- Oh, man...
5:56
there's gonna be some, there's some weird lines out there because teams are so incentivized to win by a lot of goals today. Okay. So this, yeah, this creates all kinds of-... of different layers of handicapping then.
6:07
Yep. Uh, this is pretty interesting. By the way, Liverpool remains the short shot to win the Champions League at plus 450. Right. Real Madrid and Arsenal both at six to one, followed closely by Barcelona at plus 650.
6:18
Bayern Munich, the only other one in single digits. Uh, you think that's all properly priced, by the way? Yeah. Yeah, it's about right. Okay.
6:24
And, and Liverpool's a good example of a weird price today because they've clinched the top two, they're going to advance.
6:29
They're playing PSV, and normally Liverpool would be a decent favorite here, but PSV on the three-way is favored at plus 125 or so because they technically haven't advanced, and they even have an outside shot at top eight.
6:41
But realistically, they're just trying to get through, so a win's pretty important for PSV.
6:45
And Liverpool, you know, we haven't seen lineups obviously, but I wouldn't expect they would play all their starters in this one. PSV Eindhoven out of the Netherlands? That's right, Kelly. Wow. As you know. This guy.
6:55
This guy. You can go home. You're done. Yeah, thank you. You're done for the day. Go watch- You keep your Kendrick Lamar, right? [laughs] You, you bring me in for European soccer. You've done all you could do.
7:03
It's awesome. Uh, there's also, you were also mentioning off-air, and I guess you do have a play in this, so let's start with this, that when it comes to Stuttgart and PSG, that they are incentivized for?
7:16
Mostly to, both of them to draw in a way. So they're in 24th and 22nd place, and again, the top 24 advance. Either goes through with a win. PSG definitively goes through with a draw. Stuttgart may go through with a draw.
7:30
They do need some other results to go their way. So there is a world where th- they kick around the ball for the last half hour of this game or something. Oh. We've seen, we saw this at Euros last year. God. Yeah.
7:39
I think it was Romania, Slovakia where a draw would send them both through, and they both scored in, like, the first half hour, and then it was kinda like, "Ah, yeah, we're good." Um, so it's not for sure
7:50
that they would do this, but you look, the draw price is plus 130 or so. Wow. Which is super low. Which is, you know, ridiculous. Yeah. You're usually, you're rarely below plus 200, and usually closer to plus 300.
7:59
Okay, but you still went over two and a half on this. I, I- Explain that to me... did. I, I can't, like, this would normally be priced, over two and a half would be at least minus 200 or so.
8:10
Your default over-under line would be three, three and a half for this game. I just don't, I'm not totally convinced that they'll kick it around at least the first half or so. PSG, very potent offense.
8:21
Stuttgart, not a super stringent defense. Uh, so I think we get some goals early. Uh, you know, PSG could get through with a loss, but probably not. I just think, you know, 2-2 very in play.
8:33
Uh, 2-1, you know, if they just decide they're not gonna bother because again, if Stuttgart wins, they're definitively through.
8:41
So they have some incentive to, you know, you win, you don't have to worry about anything else. Uh, PSG, again, probably through with, or through with a draw.
8:48
But I just think that price at even money over two and a half is just too juicy, or not juicy in this case, to pass up. Okay. You were also mentioning off-air Bayern is, like, a minus a million- [laughs]...
8:58
against, uh, Slovan Bratislava as well. Yeah. Bra- Slovan Bratislava's eliminated. Bayern has to win by a lot and probably get a lot of help to get top eight, but there's a chance.
9:08
So their line, I've seen it as high as, like, minus 30,000 to win this game. Uh, it was off the board a good chunk of yesterday. Just some wild stuff. The default, uh, spread was, like, minus four and a half in this one.
9:20
So some wild lines as a result of the incentives here. Okay. Back to the official picks, though. Stuttgart, PSG, over two and a half goals at even money for Paul. Uh, then you, uh, you like an upset here.
9:30
Or no, not an upset. You're taking the goal line here. Necessarily. I see. Okay. I've, I've, uh, been fading Man City all year fairly successfully. Club Brugge plus one and a half.
9:40
Now, I played this yesterday at plus 170. This morning, I saw it, like, plus 135-ish, which I can't really recommend below plus 150. But, uh, Brugge has often been a Champions League doormat, not as much this year.
9:55
They beat Aston Villa. They beat Sporting. They've been competitive, uh, against Juventus, AC Milan. In the game, they lost 3-1, but had a red card. Even Dortmund, they lost 3-0, but it wasn't that much of a rout.
10:07
So Club Brugge, they need a draw to go through. They would obviously go through with a win as well, and they could even get through with a one-goal loss, depending on how the games go.
10:17
Manchester City has to win, so they're obviously incentivized to go for it as they can. Uh, but yeah, this could easily be a Man City 2-1 type of game, and they could both shut it down in the last 20 minutes.
10:29
Because City would have to win, and Brugge might be through with a, a one-goal loss. So I like plus one and a half at plus money, and I think that's why the price has dropped so much in the last 24 hours.
10:38
All right, and then also over three and a half goals in the Barcelona-Atalanta game. I have, uh, some very s- sophisticated analysis here. [laughs] It is, did you see the Benfica-Barcelona game last week? Yes.
10:49
Yes, we did, Paul. We did. We did. That's pretty much it. Uh, Barcelona doesn't have much to play for. They've clinched the top eight spot. But Atalanta is in seventh and probably has to win to stay in the top eight.
10:59
So Barcelona, again, maybe the best attack in the world, terrible defense. Atalanta is more an open team as well.
11:06
Uh, they got a couple injuries that are out, but it shouldn't matter 'cause I think they're gonna go for it. So there's just gonna be goals here one way or the other.
11:12
Doesn't really matter who Barcelona starts, if they decide to rest people. They've got enough attacking talent on the bench to still put in a couple goals. So over three and a half, minus 120. All right.
11:20
So where should we ladder up to, Paul? About six and a half today, this week? [laughs] That's right. Yeah, we can find, like, over, over eight and a half at plus 6500. That, that sounds good, yeah. Stuttgart, PSG, 2-2.
11:29
Final score is 12 to one. Super Bowl LIX, who you got, Paul? I'll hit it. Uh, Chiefs. I'm in Kansas. If I don't pick the Chiefs, then they kick me out. [laughs] Is that how that works? It's a state law. Wow. Yeah.
11:39
Wow, I didn't know that. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Enjoy the games today. Full day of soccer. Bet. The Champions League. How about some hockey with Jonathan Davis? That's on the other side.
11:47
It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:13
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12:19
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12:27
Always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody. This is from Jesse Welch. "This is fantastic. JVT comes in hot breaking down Kendrick Lamar and describes a song of his to have, quote, 'a pretty nifty riff,' unquote."
12:40
[laughs] He says, "You just cannot beat a numbers game." JasonH11: "My list of halftime songs," he says, "One, Old Time Rock and Roll. Two, Turn the Page. Three, Hollywood Nights. Four, Night Moves." What?
12:51
[laughs] Vicky, Vicky, it's, he's like, "Wait a minute." Night Moves. [laughs] He's got the alternate halftime show with Bob Seger doing it. I'm not gonna get Night Moves out of my head for the next 10 years.
13:01
Dog in mouth and Night Moves. NewYorkMess16: "What is Base Winners take on Kendrick, on the Kendrick-Drake beef? Or is he too busy with his mind on his money and money on his mind?" I think he is. Yeah.
13:12
Um- He's got no time for Kendrick or Drake... it's a fair tweet, though. You're right. I don't, I, I feel a little awkward having this conversation without, uh, Mark Wag in.
13:19
[laughs] Mark, Mark, we need to get a little analytical baseball mind on it. Right. That's right.
13:23
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, uh, I, I don't know if you know this, but a special numbers game investigation, uh, tells us that we are, uh, not quite down the stretch of the hockey season, but we are deep into it, and it's been a while since we, uh, brought Jay Cohn to talk hockey with us because of, uh, football.
13:37
But Jonathan Davis, true to the task, he is our VSIN NHL betting analyst, host of, uh, Ice Cap on SiriusXM NHL. You can follow him on Twitter at WestCoastHKY. Get that hockey, WestCoastHKY.
13:49
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive li- uh, guest line. How you doing, Jonathan? I'm doing great, boys. How are you doing? Doing very well.
13:55
We have, we, a couple things we gotta get out of the way before we get your picks. One, Super Bowl LIX, you might be a hockey guy, but you have a thought on Super Bowl LIX. Not anymore after my Bills got knocked out.
14:06
Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry about that. You know, growing up in Toronto, you know, that was, you know, that, that was our team. That was my team. Drove down to Dan Rich Stadium all the time. It, yeah, very depressing. Okay.
14:19
The other question I have is a very- Mm... is a very DC-oriented, very selfishly DC-oriented, where I grew up, uh, question, which is the Washington Capitals, um, look like they could win the President's Cup.
14:31
Uh, Winnipeg Jets and Washington with the most points in the NHL at this point in the season. Both have 73, I believe it is.
14:37
Uh, it never goes well when the Caps win the President's Cup, or probably doesn't go well for a lot of teams here, uh, when they win the President's Cup, at least in terms of winning the Stanley Cup.
14:47
Do you view that with Washington and Winnipeg this year as well?
14:52
Oh, for them to win the President's Trophy and being picked over- No, to, to win the President's Trophy, but do you view them as non, as, as not really your top contenders to win it all, though?
15:02
Well, I, I don't think you can dismiss what Washington has done. I mean, you know, uh, they've got the Coach of the Year in my opinion, and, and unfortunately, the odds right now are just, you know,
15:13
you, you can't bet on me even to win Coach of the Year, but definitely legit candidates.
15:16
Uh, you know, in, in the case of the Winnipeg Jets, you know, their goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, who is a legit MVP candidate, has had back-to-back horrible playoffs.
15:25
So u- until we see something where he can, you know, get his team at least through round one, I, I, I'm in a wait and see mode with the Winnipeg Jets. Okay.
15:35
Uh, you, you have a lot of picks tonight, three, and they're focused in on three games. The first of which- Yeah... is the Flyers at the Devils.
15:41
The Devils are big favorites, minus 190 favorites in this game, uh, but you have, uh, figured out a creative way to bet this. Well, it's the third time in 11 days that these two teams will meet.
15:51
They played, they played two nights ago, and the Flyers won that game four to two. They won the first meeting three to one.
15:58
But minus 190, you know, i- if you're gonna play a side in this one, it, it has to be Philadelphia. New Jersey just doesn't, as good as New Jersey has the potential to be, they're not good enough to be minus 190.
16:10
They're not good enough to be minus 190 now that Jacob Markstrom, their starting goalie, is out for six weeks, and Jake Allen is now taking over as the number one goalie. Allen's lost his last seven starts.
16:22
He's given up at least three goals, uh, in e- or the, the opposition has scored at least three goals in those seven losses. So for me, I, my big play in that game, I would play the Flyers team total over two and a half.
16:35
I did that on Tuesday. It's rather cheap at minus $1.15, so I really like that. And then, you know, like baseball, like when, when you guys bet baseball, starting pitchers, that's a big deal, right?
16:47
Like, you're basing a lot of it on who's starting. Would that be a fair assumption? Yeah, of course. Yeah. So in hockey, for me, you know, until you know who the starting goalie is, like that takes a lot into account.
16:59
It takes account into the line, and it takes a big account for me in the player props.
17:04
So Dougie Hamilton of the, of the, uh, New Jersey Devils is not a big scoring threat, but he seems to be a big scoring threat when he faces Samuel Ersson, the Flyers' goalie. He scored in both games this year.
17:16
He's got three goals in three games against Ersson. I played him on Tuesday at plus 600. The books are catching on. He's at plus 550 to score a goal. I'm good for that at a quarter unit.
17:28
Anytime I play, uh, an anytime goal, it's, it's small, a quarter unit for me. And then Owen Tippett of the Flyers, he's got three goals in four games against Jake Allen, the Devils' projected starting goalie.
17:40
You can get him at about plus 260 to score a goal. Like him as well in this game, quarter unit, J, uh, Owen Tippett, anytime goal.
17:47
All right, Flyers team total over two and a half, uh, two units on that, but then, uh, less than a unit, let's say, on Dougie Hamilton, anytime goal. Owen Tippett, anytime goal as well.
17:56
The Flyers right now on the outside looking in of the playoff picture with a little less than half a season remaining, uh, in hockey's regular season. Kings at Panthers, let's go to that one tonight.
18:06
Panthers minus 160 favorites. What are you doing with this? All right, another game where it's important to know who the starting goalie is, especially in the case of the Florida Panthers.
18:14
Spencer Knight is projected to be the starter. He faced LA the last time that these two teams have met. He's on a run, um, on a first period run in his games, the under has cashed in six straight.
18:28
Uh, prior to the Vegas game on Sunday night, they, he had five straight games that the first period ended zero-zero. So I'm gonna attack it, tackle this two ways.
18:37
I'm gonna play the under one-and-a-half goals in the first period, minus 115 for two units. But I'll play an exact score zero-zero at the end of one and get that at plus 350 for a quarter unit.
18:50
And then Adrian Kempe of the LA Kings. The Kings can't score goals, but Adrian Kempe can. I mean, I think L- I think the Kings have scored two goals or less in nine of their last 10 games.
19:00
Kempe's got a goal, I believe, in eight of the Kings last 11 games. You get him at plus 200 to score a goal, I'll take my chances with Kempe at a quarter unit play to score a goal tonight. Wow, I love these.
19:12
Okay, all these again, vsyn.com/picks for subscribers if you miss them on the show. Uh, let's review that. Uh, Jonathan's playing first period under one-and-a-half goals.
19:21
That's his biggest bet of the thir- of the trio here. But then a quarter unit each on first period exact score zero-zero. Kelly, can I interest you in that at plus 350? Sure.
19:30
And then a quarter unit on Adrian Kempe anytime goal in this game at two to one. All right, let's go to, uh, Nashville. Vancouver, the Canucks at the Preds tonight. Preds a minus 140 favorite. How are we betting this?
19:44
Well, I'm gonna stay away from both sides. I mean, the Canucks have, have put together back-to-back wins for the first time in about two and a half months.
19:51
They, they've only won three in a row once this year, and that was when they had a four-game win streak back in October. Nashville comes home after a three-game road trip.
20:00
They had a, they finished with a loss on the road trip, but they did win their five games prior. They've beaten the Canucks twice. They've beaten their former goalie, Kevin Lankinen, twice.
20:10
I still don't trust the Predators as a favorite. I'm not willing to lay $1.40. It's not a big price for, you know, at home. But what I am willing to wager on is Steven Stamkos of the Predators, whose eyes light up
20:23
like you've never seen. [laughs] Like, I mean- [laughs]... he gets so excited when he faces the Canucks and when he faces Lankinen. He's got five goals in six games against Lankinen. He's beat him three times this year.
20:34
He's got 19 goals in 22 games against the Canucks. We'll play him for a quarter unit, and you can get him to score a goal tonight at about plus 170.
20:44
And then Jonathan Marchessault, who plays on the same line as Stamkos, he's had a pair of assists in the two games against Vancouver, got 15 assists in 24 career games against the Canucks.
20:55
You can get him at plus 126 just to get an assist tonight. I'll play both of those for a quarter unit. All right, Stamkos anytime goal plus 170 for a quarter unit.
21:04
Jonathan Marchessault over half an assist, plus 18 tw- uh, plus 126. Live, shop around for your price, a quarter unit in this game, uh, Preds against the Canucks.
21:14
Would you have expected more, obviously Stamkos, a Lightning great, Marchessault, a, a Golden Knights great, both on the Predators now.
21:20
Would you have expected a better half season plus from the Predators with these acquisitions? Well, I bet them to win the Stanley Cup at about 40 to 1 back in June, and bet them to win the conference at about 22 to 1.
21:34
So- Yeah... yeah. But I, I think that, you know, what we're seeing is, is just two guys that, um, at their age, you know, are much better when they've got the man advantage than when the teams are at even strength.
21:46
Uh, it just hasn't worked in Nashville. They just don't have, they haven't, they've been weak down the middle, and they can't get those guys the puck as much as they did, you know, both in Vegas and in Tampa.
21:57
So it's been very disappointing. Absolutely, you know, as they say, the Predators won the, won the off season, but they're sure as heck losing the regular season. Yeah.
22:04
Well, we could say that about a bunch of teams in a bunch of sports through the years. I'm thinking about my, uh, Washington football team for so many years in the early part of, uh, this century.
22:13
Jonathan, always a pleasure, man. Appreciate you coming on. Anytime. The article will be up, uh, at about 10:00 P- 10:00 AM Pacific. Just wanna wait for starting goalie confirmation.
22:23
All right, so about, uh, 90 minutes from now at vsyn.com, check out Jonathan's work on the NHL. Uh, Jonathan comes to us, once again, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, uh, @westcoasthky for Jonathan on Twitter.
22:38
How about some Jason Weingarten on the other side? Let's do it. Let's do it. All his bets, Super Bowl LIX and beyond. Let's see if he has any, uh, thoughts on this whole indoor golf stuff, which I'm sure he does.
22:48
That's next, Numbers Game, right here at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:32
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling, Numbers Game, live from Circa here in downtown Las Vegas. Circa Resort and Casino, the gem of downtown. Mm-hmm. I just came up with that.
23:41
Um- Th- th- it's a good way to say it, though, yeah. I have a question for you. Sure. So I finally got a chance to watch more than 10 seconds of the old TGL the other night on ESPN. Oh, you did? Okay.
23:51
Uh, Tomorrow's Golf League, by the way, for those scoring at home. That's what it stands for. Y- y- you know what I, y- you know what I thought it was for, like, months? It was just The Golf League.
24:01
Oh, I thought you were gonna say Tiger something. No, no, I just thought it was The Golf League, but yeah. It i- it is the, uh, brainchild of Tiger Woods and, uh, Rory McIlroy. Correct.
24:09
Um- And it is, again, it's, it's, what do you... It's a simulator, right? Mm-hmm.
24:13
It's like, it is indoor golf, although there are greens and there are all, and there are bunkers So yeah, you start your, your drive and then approach shot if it's further than 50 yards out are hit into a simulator screen, and then they go over, um, it's all in an indoor arena, and then they wa- literally walk over to a physical green- Yeah...
24:30
and around the green complex, and the green can rotate. It rotates. It moves. It undulates. It, the undulations can- Yeah... change, yes, on the green. It's very fascinating technology.
24:39
About, about 2,000 people in attendance. It's indoors. It's in Florida. Um, and it's very made for TV. It's confined to two hours. And, um, you know, all we care about is can you bet on this stuff?
24:51
And your answer, sir, is an emphatic you're done with it. No. Yeah, I'm d- I'm, yeah, I'm done with it, at least for now. I, I mean, I... Look, it's, it's a new league. There's still a beginning.
25:01
Uh, could, could I learn some things along the way that might change my mind? Sure, but I'm gonna put a pause on it for right now.
25:06
I thought it was very interesting when it started that just the turf that they're chipping off of and st- I'm like, "There's some guys that are gonna figure this out a little quicker than others." Hmm.
25:17
So I thought there could be an edge, but there's just simple little things, and I know, I know I've got a little hate on Twitter for, for this a couple times, but like Bill- A little incoming...
25:24
Billy Horschel made a joke the other week. It started with a couple back-to-back blowouts on TGL, and Billy Horschel kind of made a joke about how the producers were asking them to keep it close. And, like- Uh-oh...
25:35
as, as much of a joke or not joke as that might be for a bettor, I think, that's enough for me to say, "Okay, there, there's enough percentage of a chance that something's going on here that this is not worth investing my money."
25:46
And, um, you know, the last match did go to overtime for the first time- Well, Tiger-... ever, by the way... Tiger even said afterwards, he's like, "I'm just glad one of these was close." He, or- He said it out loud.
25:55
He also, you had mentioned the previous time he was on, 'cause Tiger is part of, you know, there's, what is there, six teams? Uh, six teams- Six teams, something like that... of four players each.
26:04
Three are actually competing, and then there's an alternate. Um, like Steph Curry is part ownership of the San Francisco one, the Williams sisters part ownership of the LA one, and so on and so forth.
26:13
But Tiger participates in the, in, on one of the teams, and the previous time you were saying he hits a drive in the simulator and he says out loud, "I can't hit it that far in real life."
26:22
Yeah, he flies, yeah, he flies over the green- Yeah... and he's just like, "I can't hit a ball that far." And, and our good friend Jason Weingarten shared a video with me- Yeah...
26:29
that, I, I mean, this is, you know, again, uh, you know, we, what's the background of this guy, and, uh, you know, all research that needs to be done.
26:36
But, uh, it's a guy going through the different golf s- vi- uh, simulators that are out there, basically points out that they're using about the fourth, fifth best one just because Tiger- [laughs]...
26:43
has involvement with the company. So, like, all of this- Ah... I think from a betting standpoint becomes concerning to me. If only we had Jason Weingarten here to give his opinion. What do you know? We do.
26:52
Jason Weingarten, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @spreadapedia, comes to us from under a cloud of smoke. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. Good morning, guys. How's it going?
27:02
Uh, it's going great. You, you'll, you're willing to bet on all kinds of things. Is this something you would bet on?
27:07
I, I bet on, I think, the second, the second week either, uh, I think it was either the first or the second week, and I noticed the, the same thing Kelly noticed with, uh, Tiger Woods going over the green and not hitting his shots the way he normally would.
27:22
And, you know, I lost my 100 bucks that week, and I said, "I don't think I'm gonna tune in again." And I, uh, I didn't watch it this last week.
27:31
I do kind of follow the discussions about it on Twitter just to hear what people are saying. And yeah, I just think this is a product that's probably not for me.
27:41
I also thought it was called the Golf League, not Tomorrow's Golf League. [laughs] Um, but they, they've done a really bad job even, you know, branding it and explaining what TGL even means.
27:51
But they're not gonna give up on this. They've put a lot of money into it, so we're gonna get a full season out of this. And I think it actually will improve.
27:58
I think the product will improve, but, uh, it's just not, it's not that interesting to me. It's- Well-... it's Monday night filler programming when there's no football. Yeah, it makes perfect sense for the players.
28:10
I mean, let me, w- uh, we, we come at it from a betting perspective, but for the players, um, this is awesome because it's kind of their reward for not going to LIV kind of feel to it. Sure.
28:22
Yeah, yeah, I think there's some of that. Yeah. It's like, "Oh, you guys, you guys didn't take the money for LIV. What about this awesome thing you can earn extra money from and not have to go anywhere from?"
28:29
So from a player's perspective, I totally get it. Like, good for them for having it.
28:33
And, and, and it's just as an entertainment product, yeah, I think there's a certain level of entertainment to it, espe- if you're a big golf fan, and, like, you wanna hear...
28:41
We always w- we always enjoy at least a little bit when these guys are micd up in any sport, right? Yeah. So it's, from that perspective, it's, it's entertaining. It's just, I think you al- we said this yesterday, right?
28:50
If you, if, if, you know it's a made-for-television product to start with, I think you gotta be a little wary about the betting, uh, implications of that. Why, why did Jon Rahm pull out of it? He's the one guy.
29:01
It's supposed to be six teams of four. There's 23. He pulled out. I'm, I'm not actually sure. Yeah. But- Yeah. Okay.
29:07
He also still has not, uh, despite the rumors, has never gone over to LIV, despite the rumors that are out there that he one day might. Uh, Jason, Super Bowl 59, what are we betting?
29:18
You know, um, I haven't, I haven't had a, you know, I haven't had a need to rush down and bet this, this line yet, you know, with, with that having another whole week and, and all the props and everything, but
29:31
I'm gonna have a hard time not betting Kansas City. I mean, you know, the, w- what's the, what's the sort of explanation for the Eagles here? You get two weeks to prepare. They're healthy maybe.
29:44
Um, I just think you're gonna give me Kansas City minus one and a half by game day. That's probably where my money is gonna be.
29:53
Um, I don't think I'm gonna change my mind in the next week, but I'm, I'm, uh, I don't wanna say I'm disappointed with this matchup, 'cause it's the Super Bowl. It's gonna be a great game.
30:01
But of all the matchups, this was the one I wanted the least. [laughs] Why, why would you say that? Why do you, w- for what reason? I just, I don't know. I don't, I, I don't wanna say I don't care.
30:11
I just, I wanted, I wanted the Rams, I wanted the Packers, I wanted the, the Ravens, I wanted the Bills. I was just more interested in seeing any of those teams in the Super Bowl.
30:22
Instead, we're getting- You know, uh, Kansas City-Eagles rematch, and hey, good for them. They're gonna go for the three-peat. I think that's a really cool thing and a really cool story.
30:31
Um, no, you know, nothing against them if they, they pull it off. They're gonna be one of the greatest teams of all time. Um, I'm just not super excited. I know it'll, it'll end up being a great game.
30:41
I'm a little interested, you know, I, I've been watching the playoffs like everyone else has. I thought the scoring for the, the championship games was abnormally high. Like, and I wanna go back and look.
30:53
Was it something that the, the refs were calling, or was it w- you know, like, 'cause we've seen this in playoff stuff where, where the rules will kind of change from, from one year to the next.
31:03
And it's, you know, they want, they want scoring. So kind of thinking this is gonna be a high-scoring Super Bowl this year.
31:09
Yeah, I mean, the A- the NFC game was 34 to 23 before it then got out of hand with, "Oh, let's just go for a fourth down here in our own territory" kind of thing. So even before that, it was still high-scoring.
31:20
Um, and then the AFC, I mean, look, the, you, you can't get the Chiefs off the field either, uh, that easily, and, uh, Josh Allen is Josh Allen. I mean, those were the nature of these teams. Um, I don't know.
31:30
We, th- we were just talking earlier how in the VSiN, uh, betting guide, Adam Burke, who puts it together, s- uh, Super Bowl betting guide, was talking about how a lot of VSiN hosts, most are on the over here, which again, love everyone, including, you know, w- at this desk liking the over.
31:44
But it, whenever that happens, it, it worries me, right? Okay, everybody's just fait accompli that it's gonna be an over. Maybe it won't be. Um, you know how that goes. Total set at 49 and a half.
31:56
Um, by the way, as, as Jason was going through all the teams, he's like, "I would rather have seen the Rams and the Packers." And he's like, "The Jaguars and the Panthers." I'm like, "Waiting. Where is it?"
32:03
[laughs] And Skins. There we go. I- He never got around to it. I, I agree with Jason, though. Yeah. Like, it's a great matchup. Like, it's gonna be a great game. I think it's fair to have Chiefs fatigue at this point.
32:13
Like- It is, but I, I also don't understand the sort of Chiefs... Well, because, uh, because the connotation of fatigue is you're sick of 'em, uh, and you're, and you just want them to go away.
32:24
I just don't see how people can't appreciate this. I, that's where I don't come from a, from a malicious or hate standpoint. Yeah. It's just, it, I'm a little tired, and it's already a matchup we've seen before. Yeah.
32:33
Well, okay. Um- Kind of the same way I felt about the Patriots with Tom Brady. It was probably because I frequently am betting against them than betting on them. [laughs] I want them to lose sometimes.
32:44
It, it's expensive every time the Chiefs win. It's, I need, I need them to lose every once in a while. Before you go, is there, is there an exotic that you usually bet, national anthem, halftime, anything like that?
32:56
No, but I will r- remind everybody, last night was the end of the, uh, Mexican Pacific League. The winter baseball leagues are winding down. We got the Series Caribe starting, I think, on Friday.
33:07
And because it's being played in Mexicali this year, I don't think Cuba was able to get visas, so they're bringing a team from Japan, like a, not, not like an all-star roster, but like a, a winter league all-star roster.
33:21
So it'll be interesting to see the Japanese team here. Ooh. Maybe we'll talk about it on Friday, but I'm, I'm pretty excited for the Series Caribe to be- Let's do that.
33:28
Little Serie- It'll be up MLB Network in English, so yeah, let's talk about that. Okay. Serie Caribe, uh, pr- preview or, or picks from Jason on Friday. Thank you, Jason, appreciate it. Pleasure. Talk to you guys Friday.
33:41
Coming back on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:57
Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
34:00
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, which brings us to our, uh, best bets of the day, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
34:10
We do it every show, uh, not only us, but every show on the network, recapping all the bets during that show from hosts and guests alike in every sport. Uh, once again, I'm on the Chiefs.
34:20
I bet it immediately, uh, Sunday night, this past Sunday night, Chiefs minus one and a half versus the Eagles. Uh, yeah, it could move. It could move against me. I don't care.
34:28
17 straight one score, one possession wins in a row for the Kansas City Chiefs. 17 in a row, 12 of them this year.
34:39
Uh, unless you believe the Eagles are blowing out the Chiefs, which I don't, that's enough for me, and there's all kinds of Patrick Mahomes stats beyond that, that are just one more amazing than the previous.
34:50
But that right there is a great catch-all. 17 one-score wins in a row. Do you think we will ever see that again? I don't know that we will. Uh, that's a great question.
34:59
We haven't asked it that way before, and- It's an entire regular season of doing that... a pro- I, I mean, probably not, I wanna say. Imagine if you, every se- every one of your 17 games ended that way.
35:13
Um, two in tennis this morning as well, one on the ladies' side. These are indoor hard courts. This is in, uh, in Linz, Austria. Linz, Austria. Am I gonna laugh- Austria... am I gonna laugh at the gyms again?
35:26
Oh, you are gonna die at some of these. [laughs] Like, the one in Singapore, it's like playing in somebody's basement. Like, it's, it's really nice of them to have- Yeah...
35:34
donated the gym from Hoosiers over to Europe for them to play tennis in. [laughs] Uh, Rebecca Sramkova plus 159 is the, uh, play over, uh, Anastasia Potapova.
35:44
Uh, and then on the men's side in Montpellier, France, Dominic Koepfer plus 106 against, uh, Alexander Bublik, who, uh- Hates himself some clay, but still likes himself some hard courts.
35:55
Indoor hard's not as much, but, uh, he's not in top form, so we're fading him. And then you, sir. Yeah, NBA. A little, I, I, uh, did a little addition today.
36:02
Just went kind of unit size here, uh, just to, for, for people at home, just to give a little perspective of how I'm attacking each one of these.
36:09
Uh, Clippers a little bit bigger bet for me, so two units on that one, one unit on these other two in the NBA tonight. Uh, Clippers laying three. That number has gone up a little bit.
36:17
I think at four you can still grab, though. I would still like it at four. This is against San Antonio. You asked JVT, um, earlier about- Yes... the, the traveling with San Antonio, Indiana.
36:27
Not exactly a factor for me in this game. This is just i- if there's anything to that, then great, it goes in my favor. This is just more about the two teams that are facing off.
36:37
The Clippers six and three in their last nine, plus 13.7 net rating, uh, in non-garbage time minutes. That's over at cleaningtheglass.com.
36:44
That is the second-best in the NBA- NBA during that time, the best defense in the NBA. San Antonio, meanwhile, two and four, uh, with the fourth worst net rating.
36:54
Uh, Victor Wembanyama always a problem, but, uh, uh, Zubac's one of the most underrated defenders in the NBA probably, uh, at center for the Clips. So went with them.
37:03
Went with the Pelicans catching points at home against the Mavericks, uh, a team that is a little undermanned right now. That number's come down, too. It's at one and a half right now.
37:12
Probably still be a play, but I'd go even lighter on that. And then Timberwolves. I'm joining JVT. This was not, this n- the line wasn't up on the openers when I was looking at them last night.
37:21
Uh, Timberwolves at Phoenix, as he pointed out.
37:24
Durant, uh, questionable with a thumb a- and we haven't seen Durant miss a game in a while, I believe, so I think there's a good chance he misses that anyway, uh, mi- misses the game.
37:33
But my numbers point toward, towards Timberwolves having a little value here anyway.
37:37
So one unit play on the Wolves, and then my two prop bets so far for the Super Bowl, Kareem Hunt over 42 and a half rushing yards, Isaiah Pacheco longest rush under eight and a half yards.
37:48
How about, how did, how did my Kendrick Lamar bets not make G Bank Best Bets of the Day, for God sakes? Not Like Us, two to one, first song played, uh, Not Like Us, and, uh, then a, uh, flyer on Swimming Pools, Drank,
38:02
33 to one. Those are my two Kendrick Lamars. JVT was on earlier, Jonathan Von Tobel. He's on the Bills', uh, excuse me, the Bills, the Bulls, pardon me, Bills fans. [laughs] Bulls team total under.
38:12
Bulls team total under- Too soon... 108 and a half tonight in the association. T-Wolves money line versus the Suns for JVT, and then Super Bowl LIX, Super Bowl licks.
38:23
He's on the Eagles money line versus the Chiefs, plus 110, and the Eagles not to convert a fourth down. No tuchus push for JVT, plus 550. I like that one. That's a fun one- Yeah...
38:37
un- until you see that team line up for the tuchus push- Then you're like, "Oh, God."... and you're like, "Ah, here's my money." But plus 550, I get it. I get it. I get it, yep.
38:45
Matty Cox from Three Man Weave, @3MW_CBB, he's on Loyola Chicago. He only had one play for us today in college hoops. Loyola Chicago plus seven and a half versus George Mason out of Northern Virginia.
38:57
Loyola Chicago plus seven and a half for Matty Cox. Uh, and then Paul Carr. This is s- what a day of soccer. 18 concurrent games- Yeah, that's incredible... in the Champions League.
39:08
Uh, he is on Stuttgart-PSG over two and a half goals, which is an interesting play because, again, Stuttgart and PSG might be okay with a tie, and when you think tie, you're thinking nil-nil or one-one, but he's going over, two and a half goals at even money.
39:22
Um, and Kelly just likes saying Stuttgart, don't you? Uh, yeah, Stuttgart. Yeah. Uh, what did I find? Uh, two-two pays 12 to one if you wanna play that exact score. Ooh, okay. Yeah.
39:31
Uh, Club Brugge plus, uh, one and a half goals, plus 170 at Man City is his second play, and then Barcelona-Atalanta.
39:39
Barcelona-Atalanta over three and a half goals, uh, coming off his, uh, Barcelona, what, nine-goal, uh, outcome the other day? Yeah. Five-four outcome. So three plays from Paul Carr. Uh, G Bank Best Bets of the Day.
39:53
Oh, and for God sakes, the, the best, saved the best for last, Jonathan Davis with a bevy of sock- of, uh, hockey plays tonight. In the Flyers game, he's on the Flyers team total over two and a half.
40:04
He's also got Dougie Hamilton anytime goal at six to one, and Owen Tippett anytime goal at plus 260. He, uh, only has a quarter unit on the anytime goals.
40:12
Then the Kings-Panthers game, he's got, uh, the first period under one and a half goals. That's his biggest bet of the bunch.
40:18
Then he also has little plays on the Kings-Panthers first period exact scored, zero-zero at plus 350, and he's got a little play on Adrian Kempe anytime goal at two to one in that game as well.
40:31
And then finally with the Nashville Predators, he's got both a Steven Stamkos anytime goal at plus 170, and then I think he has a...
40:37
Yeah, there it is, Jonathan Marchessault over a half an assist in that game as well, plus 126. How about that? Your G Bank Best Bets of the Day courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
40:50
What just happened to my voice? I was getting so emotional about G Bank for a second.
40:53
[laughs] Uh, G Bank once again, uh, recommends, or VSiN recommends that every bettor make the G Bank Visa Signature card part of their betting toolbox.
41:00
Save up to three to 5% on cash advance fees, earn cash back rewards on eligible betting transactions, and now for a limited time, you'll get a $250 bonus when you open your account and spend $1,000 in the first 90 days.
41:10
Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank. Take advantage of the $250 bonus for a limited time from our friends at G Bank, the official bank of VSiN, subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply.
41:22
We get tweets at Beating the Book. This is from Vegas Regular. "Jason doesn't have Dodgers fatigue?"
41:28
[laughs] He says, "But," Jason, "Jason has fatigue for these, this matchup in the Super Bowl, but he doesn't have Dodgers fatigue? Give me a break," he says.
41:35
And then Brian Moriannan, um, "What I'm hearing from Kelly is the best bet is Zubac defensive player of the year 250 to one." [laughs] Yeah, no, not, not what I said, John. [laughs] No. Not what I said. No.
41:49
I'm just hoping he can slow down Wembanyama enough, all right? What, uh, I mean, but Brian M. just brings up a good point, though. Where do your season-long NBA awards plays stand? Oh man, I got a couple.
42:02
That's a, that's a, that's a good one. Um, I, I, we got a bunch of bad and a couple really good. You know, that's how it usually goes. What, what are the good? Start with the good.
42:08
Six, uh, well, most improved player, which for s- I don't know why, Gil.
42:13
I mean, I feel like I've got a better read on it th- th- than a lot of people, but it's, it's whatever reason the award market, I constantly do the best in. Um, so Cade Cunningham right now is minus 115.
42:24
I have a 22 to 1 ticket on him before the season. Good for you. Me and you might get in a fight 'cause Norman Powell's the only guy I, like, don't have exposure to, and he is right behind him at plus 175.
42:32
And I have him at what, what? I think 25? 18 to 1, I wanna say. Okay, okay. I don't know. I have to check. And I have Tyler, uh, Tyler Herro is third right now, plus 750. Um- Yeah...
42:42
Michael Montesano and I have a 55 to 1 on him, so. On Tyler Herro. On Tyler Herro. Man, so we're all very well positioned here. Yeah, we are well positioned. Yeah. That's gonna be a fun race.
42:50
Um, let's, I, I think that's pretty much it. Rookie of the Year has been... I, I haven't ha- made a bet. That market has been all over the place all season, as it should be.
42:59
Wemby's out to minus 750 to win Defensive Player of the Year. He's gonna win that. Sixth Man of the Year I didn't really get involved in at any point. I would be careful with this one.
43:07
Payton Pritchard's, uh, odds are coming back down. He's at minus 155 now. He's been the big favorite for most of the season. De'Andre Hunter, Drew brought him up a couple weeks ago as being a guy to look at to bet here.
43:18
The only problem is watch how Atlanta handles rotations over their next few games with Jalen Johnson now being ruled out for the season.
43:25
You get a little worried about some of these guys getting inserted in the, in the starting lineup. They could play themselves out of this award. So be careful with that one.
43:33
Um, Coach of the Year is fascinating 'cause this Atkinson price is coming down. You brought he up, Ima Udoka yesterday. Yes, I did. He's jumped up there. I, big, I... If you're a believer in the Pistons,
43:45
Bickerstaff at 18 to 1 is, that is a long number. With what he's been able to do with that Detroit team is pretty impressive. Uh, if I had to make a bet anywhere right now, that's probably where I'd go.
43:56
What's Udoka's number? Uh, plus 450. Oh. And then, uh, clutch player, this is the one I'm really excited about. Oh. 'Cause Trey- We love clutch player... when'd I bring this up? A week and a half ago?
44:05
Wasn't even that long ago. Trey Young, I got at 25 to 1. He's second, the t- second shot now at six to one. Tyrese Maxey is at 12 to 1. I think I have 15 to 1 on him. Those two guys lead in clutch scoring.
44:15
And Montesano's gonna be very angry that Shai Gilgeous is not gonna win Defense Player of the Year. That is your prediction? I think so, yes. Yeah. He is w- he is working himself up into a lather. I know.
44:23
He's very angry about this. We know. 'Cause the logic changes from year to year. I get his point. Yeah, no, it does. Money Moves with Story Botton and Grace Remington. That is next at VSIN, the sports betting network.
44:33
Enjoy.
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