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Jan 30, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 30, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | January 30, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:36
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158.
0:18
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. How you doing, man? Doing good. How about you? You've really, you've really locked into the two-finger salute.
0:27
Yeah, a little, little hey. A little hey. How you doing? I'm doing very well, except the, uh, computer really doesn't wanna work this morning. Other than that, we're good. Oh, that's al- that's always a problem.
0:34
Other than that, we're good. Uh, Zach and Crack Thursdays, everybody. Zach Cohen coming up, VSiN senior editor, to talk, uh, multiple sports.
0:40
Of course, Super Bowl 59 front and center, but he'll have some NBA thoughts, maybe some tennis. Uh, Zach actually had a great sort of tennis dissertation on something.
0:49
I don't know if this is the time or place for that, but we'll get to it. Are we sure? National Football League, are we sure? Estamos seguros? Super Bowl 59 edition coming up. Kelly, uh, asked me some questions.
1:01
I fire back if we're sure or not. Uh, Super Bowl MVP, a little historical breakdown on Super Bowl MVP. Can that lead us to a bet or not? Does it help lead us to a bet?
1:09
And of course, the, uh, the other part of that Zach and Crack team, Bill Krackenberger, joining us unscripted for hour number two. Uh, you, you made a great comment, uh, off-air.
1:19
I'd like to pull back, back the curtain here. You were like, [laughs] you were like, "Has Crack ever a- wa- a- asked what the Zach part of the duo is?" [laughs] 'Cause I think Zach knows what the Crack part is. Right.
1:28
But we don't know if Crack knows what the Zach part is. Anyway, we'll find if he knows. I, I, I'd be like, I have a feeling, Gil- [laughs]...
1:34
that, that Bill Krackenberger isn't following everything that Zach Cohen- Probably not... is doing, but I could be wrong. Maybe he's very well aware of who he is.
1:41
And of course now, you know, after yesterday's comment that was made, uh, via Twitter, we're gonna, like, think the whole time Zach is talking, does he sound exactly like Jeff Parlay?
1:49
Oh, I, I, I am looking for the most of that segment today, Gil, just for that, because my mind was blown yesterday with how many people tweeting that. You, you, you stepped on my, on the Jeff Parlay part of that.
1:57
Some people missed that. We had a tweet yesterday that said Zach sounds exactly like the Grover Cleveland of producers, Jeff Parlay. So we'll see if we can remain undistracted by that.
2:07
Um, I wanna start with a couple things here, though, because, oh, first of all, tennis picks. Can I do that? Yep. Yesterday, sorry about that, guys, O and two on the tennis picks.
2:15
Doesn't usually happen around here on the show, uh, on the show, but we, we did go O and two on the r- on the remaining tennis plays that existed yesterday.
2:24
Uh, so if you're only getting them from the show, uh, sorry about that. We are, uh, now these are all at vsin.com/picks. So the only ones that we're getting here are the ones in Europe.
2:34
If they were in Singapore beforehand, which they, which was the case yesterday, there's different results for subscribers.
2:40
Again, vsin.com/picks, every host, every, uh, every g- guest, every sport, all at vsin.com/picks for survi- uh, for survivors, for subscribers. [laughs] Uh, this morning we are on, uh, there was one other play.
2:54
We're on Jesper De Jong, who's up a set right now, is a plus 146 dog in Montpellier. But here on the show itself, what remains in Montpellier on indoor hards, Mattia Bellucci, uh, over, uh, Alexander Kovacevic.
3:10
That is coming up a little later on this morning. You could actually get better price than I did. I think he's a slight plus money price now on Bellucci. I got him at minus 106, so that's not a, uh, a good CLV thing.
3:22
And then a little later on, and this is right around the same price, and Nikoloz Basilashvili, uh, over Arthur Rinderknech.
3:29
Rinderknech, who is a French player, so it's a little home game for Rinderknech, but fading him with Nikoloz Basilashvili.
3:35
So Bellucci and Basilashvili, the law firm, uh, remaining tennis picks for today in case you wanna, uh, go back at it, uh, a little after the show. Uh, to Super Bowl 59, sir. Those are, those are some names today.
3:51
[laughs] Yes. Oh, boy. [laughs] Oh, we for- kind- I, I forgot you sh- I should have you pronouncing them. Co- Co- Co- Kovacevic? Kovacevic, yeah. Kovacevic. Yeah. Yeah, nice job.
3:59
Why don't, why don't you give a crack at old Basilashvili? I, I, you know, I actually did, I had to do a double take, uh, at first when I was punching these in, 'cause wha- what, what is it, Mattia Bellucci? Yeah.
4:09
At, at first I was thinking female, and then I got to Alexander, and I'm like, oh, no- Uh..... I d- man, I don't think so that this is a, this is a- I should probably, I should probably tell you which one it is...
4:16
men's tennis. [laughs] There you go. Um, so we have two weeks, obviously, as everybody does, to discuss Super Bowl 59.
4:23
And as part of what we do here, we try to uncover any possible angle that people might be wondering about, 'cause you have two full weeks.
4:31
For God's sakes, we did a whole Kendrick Lamar Drake beef breakdown yesterday to see if it might help us with a, uh, first song at halftime bet.
4:39
Um, someone was asking on Twitter, and forgive me for not remembering who this was, but they were asking me, "Hey, could you do a whole thing on the referee for Super Bowl 59?" Um, okay.
4:51
Here's how I would just, again, just to cover every base here.
4:54
Before the AFC Championship, um, this was probably a viable question because everybody has the conspiracy theory about the Chiefs getting all the calls, and so the NFL very quietly put Clete Blakeman in as the, uh, the referee.
5:08
And Bla- I think the Chiefs, I don't think, this was, going into that game, the, uh, the Chiefs AFC Championship win over the Bills, Blakeman w- uh, the Chiefs were five and six straight up when Blakeman was the ref.
5:20
Um, you guys can take that down for now. We're getting to that. Um, home teams under Blakeman were five and 11, right?
5:27
So the NFL was cleverly trying to create a situation where no one could claim that the incoming ref for the AFC Championship was biased in favor of the Chiefs, right?
5:37
So five and six straight up the Chiefs were with Blakeman as ref. Home teams in his games were five and 11 straight up this season. Uh, the Bills were six and two when Blakeman was the ref, right?
5:48
Um, and then he was a top three ref in both, uh, roughing the passer and, and also unnecessary roughness, and the perception was that Mahomes gets all of those calls and, or the Chiefs get all those in their favor, when in fact it's actually Josh Allen- Yeah...
6:02
over 100, over the last five years, um, 172 combined roughing the passers and unnecessary roughness calls, uh, on Buffalo, on Kansas City.
6:11
59% actually went in favor of Buffalo, 41%, or 59% of those went in favor of Buffalo, 41%, uh, to Kansas City. And he- I don't think I ever saw the combined one before. Yeah. That was good.
6:21
I saw, I saw the roughing the passer numbers, but I didn't see, it's good to include the others too.
6:25
I just wanna point that out to say for a Super Bowl, that doesn't really apply because in a Super Bowl it's an all-star team. So every, I'll get the, the verbiage here correctly.
6:34
The NFL selects its officiating crew for the Super Bowl based on an evaluation system that is calculated throughout the season.
6:41
The league's highest rated officials at each position are selected based on the league's internal evaluation criteria to work the Super Bowl.
6:47
The only caveat being only officials who have worked in the NFL for five years are eligible for selection in the Super Bowl. So the official, the referee for the Super Bowl is Ron Torbert.
6:57
Uh, now you guys can throw that up. Now, Ron Torbert, you can't really, again, because it's a amalgamation of, of officials.
7:04
First of all, Torbert as a ref, in case you did care, last five years, Eagles are five and three straight up, including two and O this year. Chiefs are two and one last five years with Torbert as the official.
7:14
Uh, zero and zero, he did not work a Chiefs game this season.
7:17
So the, the point being, though, that even beyond that, if you were looking for some kind of angle here, you know, every other official with the exception of one, the, uh, side judge, Boris Cheek.
7:30
You know Boris Cheek's work. [laughs] Boris Cheek, yeah. That's a, that's a name. That's a name. [laughs] Boris Cheek, this will be his fourth Super Bowl. For Torbert, the ref, it's his second.
7:37
Everybody else, it's their first Super Bowl, and this is not the crew that works together.
7:40
So we can kind of toss out, just in case anybody was still curious, 'cause we did get this question, we can sort of toss out anything related to the refs, in my opinion. However, however,
7:52
Chiefs conspiracy theorists or anti-Chiefs folks, right- Yeah...
7:57
will recall one little thing [laughs] that I do think, if I'm being thorough, I should bring up, which is the AFC Championship two years ago, so not three years ago when the Bengals beat the Chiefs, but two years ago when the Chiefs eventually beat the Bengals 23 to 20.
8:11
You may recall there was a play at 20 to 20 with over 10 minutes left. Do you remember this sequence? Where the, uh, the Chiefs had a third and nine. Score's 20 to 20, just a little over 10 minutes left.
8:22
The Chiefs have a third and nine. They run a play, they get a five-yard gain. They got to punt, fourth and four, right?
8:27
They run off the field, like, uh, literally like 30 seconds to 45 seconds pass, which is an eternity. And then we find out from Ron Torbert [laughs] and his crew, uh, yeah, that was not a play.
8:40
And remember it was, I don't know if you remember this, and Romo was like, "Oh, Jim, they're going back onto the field. They're going for it on fourth."
8:45
And, and Lance had to be like, "No, no, no, that play apparently didn't count." So they had to sort it out with Steratore. Ah, don't remember this. Okay. And then so they ran another- [laughs]... third and nine play.
8:55
Mahomes got sacked, but they called a defensive hold on the Bengals. Ah. So the drive extended. No.
9:01
Now, the Chiefs still had to punt eventually, and they win on a, um, a late field goal to beat the Bengals and, and advance to the Super Bowl, the one that they beat the Eagles in, as a matter of fact.
9:11
Um, but anyway, that's, that's the only Ron Torbert conspiracy angle you could possibly use. So if something like that happens in the Super Bowl, knock yourselves out.
9:20
So like, like you said, we got two weeks to lead up to this. Yeah. We talk about almost every, e- everything- Yes... when it comes to this game.
9:26
Worth noting, though, how much in your regular NFL betting do you factor in referee information regardless? Close to zero. Yeah, me too. Okay. Um- Unless there is an extreme outlier. Yes.
9:36
If there's an extreme outlier and somehow comes into our sphere- Yeah... then maybe a little something. I feel like I even have to see the guy, like two weeks before. [laughs] Like, it's like this guy- Yeah...
9:45
is calling a lot of pass interference, and I s- I had money on a game where pass interference cost me like three times. Then I, then I get on board.
9:53
Anyway, like I said, two weeks we'll just try to, you know, be thorough- Everything, yep... about everything. Uh, we did, uh, first song or halftime yesterday. You know what we didn't do?
10:00
National anthem length, length over under. You wanna do a little of that? Let's go. Uh, Jon Batiste, New Orleans native, or at least Louisiana native, is going to, uh, do the national anthem.
10:12
Now, there is a couple, uh, couple, you know, videos of him doing this on YouTube. It's not a, uh, null set.
10:18
There's one that is just him on the piano, no vocals, which lasts a minute and 42 seconds, and then there's another one where he does sing. This is from an NBA event in 2017.
10:31
That one goes a minute and 33 seconds, so a grand total of 93 seconds. For those who don't know, Batiste is an am- he is a national treasure. He is an unbelievable musician. Um, he's a songwriter. He's won a Oscar.
10:47
He's won a Golden Globe. He's won a Grammy. I mean, he is just wildly talented. But he is more of a, he's m- mainly known for his work on the keyboard.
10:56
By the way, he'll break out a guitar too if he needs to, 'cause part, one of the national anthems was like Hendrix style electric guitar. Oh, really? He threw in after the keyboard.
11:03
I was gonna say, what do you have, what does he have, a shaky voice if he only sa- sung it ha- some of them? And- Uh, he's got a shaky voice, but that's not, like, what he's known for. Okay, got it.
11:10
My point being is even the evidence suggests this is gonna be way low. I also think that he's going to do, my guess is, longer keyboard riffs at the beginning and at the end.
11:20
And remember, when these are graded, it's words sung- Mm... from beginning to end. So to me, this is way under the 125 seconds. That's two minutes and five seconds that this is lined at.
11:34
Now, the under is juiced at minus 165. I don't think it's juiced enough. That'd be my take on the national anthem. That's great. Under. Under with a bullet. Uh, Zach Cohen, first part of the Zach and Crack team.
11:47
On the other side, a little NBA, a little NFL. That's next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ready to elevate your barbecue game?
12:03
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12:35
Uh, a lot of response to our, uh, Kendrick Lamar segment yesterday and to the Beating the Book 14th annual Vegas lifestyle, uh, edition, which we did with Mark Meltzer, Steve Fezzik, and Bill Krackomberger yesterday.
12:47
John Louie chimes in on that. He says, "A national treasure." Thank you, John. Appreciate that. This is from, uh, P Majeski, "A tradition like no other," uh, talking about the, uh, Megapod, uh, Vegas lifestyle.
12:57
"Enjoyed this a lot as always," from Reload Sports. That's Joseph Frida. Uh, this from, let's see here, Barnett Kenny, "Great listen as always. Gotta get Ace back on next year." Yeah, I...
13:09
You know, here's the thing with, with asking Ace, though. Ace, he set the bar so high with the, uh, let's say off-color stuff of Vegas that he feels too much pressure to sort of live up to it.
13:20
[laughs] Yeah, I remember that one. Hey, Dave Tooley chimes in, "Always a fun annual listen about the Vegas lifestyle." He puts lifestyle in quotes. Yeah.
13:28
I was thinking about that title that we had a man's guide for 14 years. Is that allowed anymore, that I'm allowed to say that? Grateful Mouse, "Thanks again for another stellar Beating the Book NFL season.
13:37
Informative and entertaining every week." Thank you. We still got one more. Hopefully we'll get Rufus to do, uh, some, uh, Super Bowl props with us.
13:44
Cannon Hammy, Nick Kenhammer, uh, "Listening to you," uh, now this is from the, uh, Kendrick yesterday. "Listening to you explain pop culture and rap beefs to Kelly was not on my bingo card yesterday."
13:54
[laughs] Uh- So, so I'm the guy who's, like, old enough, Gil, that I don't like to, I don't like to Google things. I'd rather have a conversation about it. Yeah.
14:00
Gil breaking down that beef for me was way better than, uh, anything I could have read up on. It was condensed. It was good. Yeah, it was condensed- Thank you... 'cause I knew about it a little bit- Yeah...
14:06
and then I feel far more educated after. And you don't care enough to really Google it. Right, exactly. [laughs] You know? Thank you very much.
14:13
Uh, Ice Cold Gale with Jason, "Very disappointed in Kelly not knowing Not Like Us. Might wanna start interviewing for producer number 10, Gil." Uh, uh- Yeah, there, there was calls for JVT to take my job yesterday.
14:23
Yes, I saw that one as well. That was a- that was actually just bad producing by me, 'cause as soon as I knew G- JVT was coming up next and you started going into this- Oh, you should have brought him in...
14:30
I'm like, I guarantee you he has thoughts on this. He did. He definitely did. Should've brought him in earlier. Bobby Gettys, "I gotta love Jason from yesterday," says, uh, this, so he's quoting the conversation.
14:38
He's doing a transcription. He says, uh, "Gil, so do you have any Super Bowl props or exotics?
14:42
That's what I asked Jason, and Jason's response was, 'No, but I will remind everyone that the Mexican Pacific Baseball League just ended and we should discuss that Friday.'" [laughs] Never know where he's gonna go.
14:52
Still, uh- Yeah. [laughs]... still waiting on, uh, Jason to get back to me about coming on Monday instead of Friday- That's right... since you're not gonna be here tomorrow. That's right, I'm not here tomorrow.
14:59
Joe Seralo in for me. Joe Seralo in, yep. Um, Matt Hamm42, "Earl, 10 years for me. Congrats on number 14 of the best pod of the year."
15:08
Matt, uh, or Earl, I'm not sure which his name is here, uh, he has listened to this podcast for 10 of the 14 years. I'm super humbled by that. That's incredible. Thank you very much.
15:16
Uh, Jason also adds, "Careful, Kelly." Oh, there he is. "JVT might replace, uh, you, knowing his NBA and knowing his music, LOL." Um, we'll save the rest for last 'cause Zach Cohen is patiently, uh, waiting for us.
15:26
Uh, let's talk some Super Bowl LIX and some NBA with Zach Cohen, everybody, who joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, Vsan senior editor and part of the glue that holds this whole operation together.
15:37
Zach, how you doing, man? I'm doing well. How are you guys? I'm doing well.
15:40
Um, on another, on another day, and maybe it's the next Grand Slam tennis podcast we do, 'cause I don't think this is the spot for it, your dissertation on how bad, um, the strategy that Carlos employed against Novak was fantastic, I thought.
15:58
We gotta do that another time. Yeah, I'd love to. Maybe the next time when we do the, uh, French Open Megapod, we should get into it a little bit. Yes. Okay. For, for, for that Hardo audience, we will do that. Um- Yep...
16:08
let's talk about the NBA for a second, and I'm curious again, this is, this is... Kelly, you jump in here as well. Mm-hmm. This is talking about Defensive Player of the Year.
16:16
I alluded to this at the end of yesterday's show. Uh, this is Michael Montesano who, like me, like you, I think like all of us, had a Victor Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year ticket from last year.
16:28
Uh, and what he said was, he goes, "Last year the Spurs had an adjusted defensive effic- uh, defensive efficiency that was number 22 in the NBA. They allowed 113.0 points per 100 possessions. This year, guess what?
16:41
They're ranked 22nd again, allowing 112 points per 100 possessions, so exactly one point less but the exact same ranking." He said, "We said this last year that this was gonna happen.
16:52
I want apologies from all voters and all Vsan guests and hosts that said Wemby was not the Defensive Player of the Year last year.
16:58
If he's going to win it this way, he has the exact same counting stats and defensive rebounds per game, plus blocks per game, plus steals per game.
17:05
I remember specifically guests and hosts saying no one can win the [laughs] Defensive Player of the Year if they're not on a top five defense, and they're correct.
17:12
I did the deep dive from the last 15 years," but he's just saying not, he's saying not only does... He's not saying Wemby doesn't deserve it, but he's saying you can't have it both ways. Agree or disagree, Zach?
17:22
Yeah, so you're saying if he wins it this year. Yes. What he's saying is- It's not right. Okay...
17:25
we called it, that the same people who were like, "Ah, we gotta give it to Gobert because Wemby's on this terrible defense," and everybody's gonna give it to Wemby this year, and they're still on a terrible defense.
17:33
We called it. Yes, Zach? No? Yeah. Yeah. So.
17:36
I mean, I, I, I just think that the difference this year is that we, we saw that people were very upset with Gobert winning, and then in the playoffs, you know, he didn't play the best defense.
17:44
I think the people went into this season saying it's gonna be Wemby, and I kind of agree with Anthony Davis, who the other day said that there are just huge narratives that overtake these awards to make it hard for anyone else to win.
17:54
So I think Wemby went in with the, with the nod this year and has played well enough to keep it. But these, these are the narratives, and, uh, I feel like, and I like them both, right?
18:03
But I think, like, Brian Windhorst and Tim Bontemps, Timmy Good Times, have more influence over NBA awards markets than anyone else has in any other sport.
18:12
So these narratives that are, are, are, uh, cultivated oftentimes start with them in a way that is far g- that has far greater influence than it probably should, I believe. Yeah, completely agree. Yeah.
18:24
Yeah, completely agree. So, um, anyway. I, I, I think the, I think the only other point on Wemby is, is I think that one of the other large factors last year was the rookie factor.
18:33
So it's always, I, I feel like ev- like every sport, right? Whe- whether we're talking Jayden Daniels in the NFL this year, it's we're gonna give him Rookie of the Year.
18:40
How much consideration is he gonna get for anything else no matter how good he is? I think a little bit of the, of that came into play last year. What are you liking in the NBA tonight, Zach?
18:49
Yeah, uh, so I have a, a bad team for you tonight. I like the Jazz plus seven and a half, uh, in tonight's game.
18:55
I, I think that it's, it's an interesting situation where I think that Utah is a very bad team, I, I will acknowledge that, but they're nine and four against the spread in their last 13 games.
19:05
They've been playing, you know, close to, uh, even basketball when it comes to net rating, and they are playing a Timberwolves team that just played a really tough game in Phoenix last night.
19:14
And I think that, you know, in the NBA, some of the best situations you get are teams on the second night of back-to-backs, especially when they are playing, you know, tough games the night before.
19:22
Uh, you kinda have to throw out the records, and I, I think that the Timberwolves are in a bad spot tonight, so I'll be on the Jazz plus seven and a half. I'll probably take a little bit of the money line, too.
19:30
And then I'm looking at ways to play this Hawks-Cavs game, and I believe I'll be on Atlanta plus 10 and a half.
19:36
And I also like DeAndre Hunter over 17 and a half points because Jalen Johnson is out for the rest of the season. Uh, Hunter's now going to be playing 30-plus minutes every night.
19:44
Hunter was already playing really well offensively, uh, in a sixth man role, but now that he's going to be relied on a little bit more offensively, I think we're gonna see some, you know, 18-plus, maybe even 20-plus performances pretty consistently moving forward.
19:56
It would not be a Zach Cohen segment without one of the NBA's- [laughs]... poo poo platter teams, and the Jazz are one of the picks. I like it. Yeah. Uh, Super Bowl LIX, what are you betting on the side?
20:05
The total, a prop, what are you doing?
20:07
Yeah, I, so I'm on the Eagles, and I wrote us up for the, uh, the Super Bowl betting guide, and I wrote it up a little bit more in-depth over at vsin.com, but it's just you're choosing between two things.
20:16
You're either taking the season-long resume of the Eagles, which is very, very impressive from an advanced stat standpoint, or you're, you know, throwing it all away and looking at, you know, the playoff success of Patrick Mahomes.
20:26
And it's hard to blame anyone for going either way.
20:29
I, I'm going with Philadelphia because I do think that, you know, what we've seen both offensively and defensively, being a top five team in EPA per play on both, that's going to be very hard for me to go against in a, in a one-game setting.
20:40
And obviously I'm a little bit nervous about what would happen if it's a close game late. Uh, you know, maybe Mahomes steals it.
20:45
But I do think that Philadelphia is going to be able to run the ball very successfully with Saquon Barkley. Uh, I wrote in that story, I think Dallas Goedert's going to have a huge game.
20:54
Uh, I'm not alone in thinking that. I believe it's the most public bet, uh, i- in the Super Bowl so far, over 47 and a half is what it was, up to 52 and a half now.
21:02
But I also sprinkled, uh, Goedert to lead the game in receiving yards, too. By the way, Goedert's totally not annoying when he, uh, hypes it up after every catch. Totally not annoying. Yeah.
21:12
[laughs] Um, I do love the way you couch that, Z- though, Zach. That's the most succinct, I think, logical way of couching the Super Bowl, what you just said.
21:19
This is really a referendum on Eagles' season work, Chiefs' career work. Yeah. That's really what it comes down to. Yeah. A- and I, I get why people do not wanna against, go against Patrick Mahomes.
21:32
I think last year in the Super Bowl, I got to the point this year where a lot of people are, where I said, "All right. I'm just gonna take them to beat the 49ers. I'd rather have Mahomes in this game."
21:39
But I do think the Eagles this year are a little bit more dangerous than that 49ers team last year. Any prop that you are contemplating if you haven't bet already?
21:48
Yeah, so just the Goedert over 47 and a half so far, and I have a little bit on Goedert plus 850 to lead the, uh, the game in reception yards. I also am looking at Saquon Barkley to score two-plus touchdowns- Ah...
21:59
at plus 300. I, I think that y- y- there's really no value in taking him to score one, uh, but I do think that scoring two is on the table.
22:06
Obviously we've seen him do it two games in a row now, and I do think Kansas City's, uh, rushing defense is a little bit vulnerable. Okay. Zach, appreciate it as always. Uh, Super Bowl LIX, 10 days away.
22:17
Do I have that right still? 10 days away. Yeah, sounds right. Super Bowl licks, as, uh, the kids call it. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it, man. Thanks, guys. Thank you. Uh, betting on X, by the way, for Zach on Twitter.
22:28
The kids do not call it that. Grandpa calls it that on that one commercial. Thank God we're still using Roman numerals, you know? Yeah. Really makes me feel like my elementary school education is, uh- It's really c-...
22:37
coming, coming, yeah, it's really mattering now. It's finally locking in. That's right, yeah. [laughs] Uh- Let's start writing in cursive again, too. Are we sure? Estamos seguros?
22:46
Next on the NFL Super Bowl edition, coming back. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Get ready for big game 59 with a big deal.
22:59
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23:03
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23:18
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23:31
That's vsin.com/subscribe. I assume you're speaking of yourself. Yeah, it's in my Twitter bio. Oh, okay. A noble gentleman. Kelly Biblin, noble gentleman. That's exactly what people think.
23:42
[laughs] They can't separate the two things. Uh, more tweets. We get tweets- Oh, man... at Beat of the Book, always appreciate it. Ryan Hyatt, uh, talking about the, uh, Megapod Vegas Lifestyle 14th edition.
23:53
Uh, "I learned more in five minutes," oh no, this is about Kendrick yesterday. He goes, "I learned more in five minutes about music than I have in the last five years.
23:58
I still don't know which side of the beef I'm supposed to be on. Can we get KC and the Sunshine Band on speed dial for next week?" KC and the Sunshine Band, by the way, my first ever favorite group when I was a kid.
24:08
Really? Oh, I loved KC and the Sunshine Band. I didn't know what the songs were about. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, I've heard you say that before. Should probably point that out. Yeah.
24:15
[laughs] Uh, oh, John Louis adds, "Need a best of show," talking about the Megapod, "at some point," the Vegas lifestyle ones. "New listeners need Ace's PSA on how to avoid," [laughs] "avoid getting trick rolled."
24:25
[laughs] Yes, they do. It's very, it's a very big PSA. Steve Fezzik was on the show.
24:29
He goes, "Drink for free and get free vacations to Bahamas, world-class dining, $10 prime rib dinners, and so much more," talking about the, uh, lifestyle pod yesterday. Uh, and, uh, do we have any more? Yeah.
24:39
This bloke here, "Mark Meltzer always excellent on this podcast. A fun listen. Thanks, fellas." Yes, Meltzer, the only person who's been on a, on a Megapod every single year. Jerry Bose, "Great show again. Enjoyed it."
24:51
And, uh, as far as, uh, this one here, let's go Money Capper Letty from about 20 minutes ago, "So the NFL Bucs Clete Blakeman- Uh, the trend for the Chiefs last week, is that how this works?
25:02
[laughs] So he's, he's still going with the, uh, this conspiracy theory that, oh, that's, they threw us a curveball, then they bucked the trend.
25:09
Uh, Ice Cold Gambler, "Refs, umpires I only factored in my bets was when Angel Hernandez was an ump. Thank God he's gone." Um, gone from baseball, not gone, gone, if you know what I mean. Rob Smith, "Bengals fan here.
25:19
Literally remember what you're talking about. A do-over. I'm 55, I've never seen it before and haven't seen it since." The play I was referring to earlier in the AFC Championship two years ago.
25:28
"Your Alan Mahomes stat needs to be filtered with second half in playoff games." Uh, Brian Schaefer talking about this tennis match that, um- Wait, what is that supposed to mean? I, I didn't get that last part.
25:37
Like, like it, maybe he's getting more towards end of game or something? I think that, I think that's what he's- Yeah, okay... uh, I think that's what he's trying to- Which is interesting if true. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
25:46
Uh, Brian Schaefer, "What happened in this De Jong match? It says intermission but it's indoors. What happened? Did a pipe break?"
25:51
Yeah, I was wondering if you could help me with that, Brian, because I'm, I'm just watching the score. It's an, they're, they're playing now again, but there's been two stoppages in this match that we're...
26:00
This is before the show, the De Jong match. By the way, we're off a mini break in the second set up one set as a plus 146 dog. What could possibly go wrong from here? Oh, I'm sure you'll be fine. Yeah.
26:08
[laughs] I'm sure, I'm sure we'll be fine. I've done this enough with you. Yeah. I'm sure you'll be fine. I'm sure we'll be fine. It looks like they're in a legit nice arena this time around too.
26:15
In Montpel- Montpellier is nice, yeah Yeah, yeah. This isn't like a- Yeah... rinky-dink operation. May- maybe some rain got in. Maybe there's a bat, you know. We've seen it all before. [laughs] Maybe there's a bat.
26:23
That's right. Someone called Manu. ND Money, "How's the weight loss going for Kelly? Quick update." Oh, uh, it's going well. I, I mean, over 50. I don't think I've hit 60 yet, so it's, uh, it's going well.
26:34
Are you trying to hit 60 and 70, or are you trying to lose more? Yeah. Yeah? Okay. Yeah. I'm gonna try to get down to 220 is my goal. All right. Don't, don't be gaunt. Don't do that. I'll do my best.
26:43
[laughs] Gee- I, I h- I hope to God someone calls me gaunt one day. Oh, Kelly's so gaunt. Rob Marino called me Santa Claus the other day. I almost called HR. Yeah. [laughs] I don't think we have an HR, but.
26:54
That got, that got a big laugh from behind the glass. [laughs] It, it- Yeah, too many people laughed I was gonna say, the whole crew would be in on HR.
27:00
[laughs] Uh, James Sott, "Loved the Lifestyle pod yesterday, but one question, maybe we can ask Crack later when he comes in about a great place to get a prime rib. Same place as the steaks?" Okay, we'll ask him that.
27:10
Jason H. Levin, "Another great Vegas Lifestyle pod. I love learning about restaurants to try on my next visit." Oh, we're all about the restaurants. Rhodes Knows, "I tuned in yesterday for the Kendrick Drake beef.
27:19
I assume today you guys will cover the Tupac Biggie beef. Thanks, guys." Yeah, you see, even this is my, again, that, that, now that was a beef 'cause- Yeah... it resulted in two deaths for God sakes, and gunfire.
27:29
My goodness. These are, this Kendrick Drake stuff is all performative. Bobby Knuckles, "Worksh- workshopping a few more rap names for the crew. Gil is The Notorious A.N.G."
27:39
[laughs] "And in honor of Kendrick, Kung Fu Kelly for Kelly." The RGB, "Hey, guys, let's not forget about the, uh-" Thought it was Santa Claus Kelly, Rob Marino. Uh, RGB, "Let's not forget about the flyover prop.
27:50
That cashed nicely last year." You know who we're gonna have to rely on? Oh, Weingarten. Jason Weingarten. Yeah. Because he has Pentagon connections. Yeah, he do. Yeah, he do.
27:59
Um, Brian M- Yeah, that's really a real thing. That is a thing. [laughs] I think it is a thing. I think Kelly needs the top hat, calling himself a noble gentleman. I don't know.
28:09
You got, you gotta stop voice texting into these, 'cause I got every- [laughs] Anyway. Oh, the, the one we put on the hat again. Yeah. Oh, the hat. It's over in the corner. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, for the noble gentleman.
28:16
I gotcha. Uh, thank you for all the tweets. We'll read some more coming out, uh, over there. Oh, uh, James Sott says the lights went out in the arena. That's why the, uh, the match had to stop a couple times.
28:25
Um, De Jong wins it again for subscribers, so plus 146 dog for h- uh, for us hits. That's a nice bounce back from yesterday's show picks.
28:35
Um, we got two more again, as we mentioned, Basilashvili preceded by Berlocq coming up. Uh, okay, are you ready? Let's do it. Are we sure? Estamos seguros? I got a nice mix for you today, okay? All right.
28:49
Are we sure the NFL should rename the Lombardi Trophy to the Brady Trophy like Bill Belichick said yesterday? No, we're not sure, Bill, if I may call you Bill. Did Lombardi put that in your ear? I'm just saying.
29:03
No, we can't do that because what if Patrick Mahomes then wins more Super Bowls than Tom Brady does? Then we're gonna have to change it to the Mahomes Trophy? No, Vince Lombardi won Super Bowls I and II.
29:13
That should be the name in perpetuity, period.
29:15
Yeah, I, I think that was the immediate reaction for most people yester- uh, yesterday, was like, "Well, we're just gonna have to change it to the Mahomes Trophy- That's what I mean... in about three years." Yeah.
29:24
So yeah, I, I'm with you there. Um, okay, are we sure you should be betting Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP if you like the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl? I thought that was an original thought.
29:33
Now you're telling me everybody had the same thought. Yeah, it's the correct thought. [laughs] I, I saw it once or twice, okay? Wait, what was the, what was the question? I saw it once or twice. Are we sure- Yeah...
29:40
you should be betting Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP if you're betting the Chiefs money line?
29:45
Uh, no, because the price difference, I, I mean, I'm, I'm a b- big believer that if they win, he probably wins it, but the price difference isn't enough, though it has drifted a little to plus 120.
29:55
Dude, it keeps drifting. I was gonna say I disagree with you. Well, no, I just, I'm seeing it now- Yeah... for the first time. I was under the impression it was plus 105. Okay. Now it's plus 120.
30:03
Uh, we're getting to the point that we, that we should consider it now. But before I would've said no, the price difference isn't enough to justify it. In the case of Saquon, yes, at plus 260.
30:14
If you think that the Eagles are gonna win it, and you think that the path to victory is Saquon, then I would say okay.
30:21
Mahomes is starting to drift to the pri- to the price where I would say we're about to get there, but not quite yet. Interesting. I, I- We're drifting though...
30:29
first of all, why are we dr- are they, are we really not taking Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP bets? Yeah, I'm not- Everybody's just chasing long shots? I- Is that what it is?
30:37
I gotta tell you, plus 120, now I'm starting to say it I mean, you're talking about a 50 cent difference between where the money line's at now and where this is, and where his MVP price is at.
30:44
Pl- plus 105, I, which is what I thought it was coming into this, I was prepared to say no. Right. But plus 120, yeah, you might, you might wanna do that.
30:50
I mean, even when we were talking about the other day, I still thought that d- a 35 cent difference was too much. Now you're talking about 50? Uh, uh, man, that's, it's extreme.
30:58
Um, okay, uh, are we sure Saquon Barkley should be minus 190 to score a touchdown in this game?
31:06
Uh, I'd have to run the numbers, so I d- I can't be sure, but it sounds about right to me, and I'm sure they've done the pricing properly on that. Yeah, he was, like, minus 230, I think- Yeah... last week. Mm-hmm.
31:15
So if anything, you're getting a discount from a week ago. Um, okay, are we sure [laughs] people... I like this.
31:21
Are we sure people should be betting the over on Patrick Mahomes' rushing prop given past Super Bowl results, Gil? Of course not. [laughs] No. I mean, what are we talking about?
31:30
First of all, I thought his, his performance rushing against the Bills was an anomaly, right? I think we can all agree with that. Like, that's not a typical Patrick Mahomes rushing output.
31:39
So a lot of people with the ultimate recency bias will be like, "Oh my God, Mahomes over rushing yards."
31:43
But r- we know famously what has happened is the, the most, I mean, one of the more famous gambling moments of the last five years- Yep... was Patrick Mahomes taking two consecutive seven-yard kneels, right?
31:56
Like, no, you absolutely should not be sure to take the over on Mahomes. And I'm pretty sure, I think that number's, uh, so yeah, 29 and a half right now.
32:03
Mahomes, pretty sure we were right in that same territory that year. Yes. Like, it was, like, 27 and a half. He got to, like, 33, I think, and then went backwards. And then he, he back...
32:10
'Cause Patrick Mahomes doesn't just kneel, he runs ba- he, like, backpedals seven yards. Which was intelligent, right? Yes. It was, "Let me take as much time off the clock, protect myself."
32:18
Patrick Mahomes does not care about your bets. Not at all. Yeah. Not at all. All right. Are we sure- Yeah... Jayden Daniels is the best quarterback in the National Football Conference? I am.
32:30
I'm al- I think I'm almost there already, too. If I'm doing my quarterback rankings, he's fifth, and the other four are AFC quarterbacks in front of him.
32:38
I'm trying to think who else- I mean, are you putting Hurts in front of him? Are you putting Stafford because of past work in front of him?
32:43
I, I, I was gonna go Stafford, but then it's, like, almost hard to compare those two. Like, what do we, what resumes are we comparing, right? Right, right. Like a guy who's been here one year, and then we're going off...
32:50
It's kind of like what Zach said. Now we're going off a body of work, right? I am sure, Kelly Billy. You asked me am I sure. That's my answer. Are we sure- Yeah...
32:57
the NBA should consider shortening quarters to 10 minutes like Adam Silver suggests? Yeah, if y'all missed this yesterday, Adam Silver wants to go international. He, you know, he's smart, though.
33:06
He floats it, and then he reali- 'cause he realizes it's gonna hap- happen over time. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
33:11
It can't happen overnight, so he floats the idea, and then he'll back it up, like, a few months from now or a year from now. Um, I'm not sure, but I think Adam Silver will get his way.
33:21
I think this is gonna happen eventually. All right, I, I gotta get to this last one. Are we really, really, really sure Joe Cirillo and Taylor Fritz aren't brothers? I was the first person to make that comparison.
33:30
I'm not sure. [laughs] Okay. Dead ringers. Look at that. Look at this. Look at this. [laughs] Wait, that's not Cirillo on the right. [laughs] Yes, it is. Come on. It's the exact same person. [laughs] It's amazing.
33:41
Joe Cirillo in tomorrow. MVP talk coming up. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on a numbers game, Super Bowl 59 upon us, and Kelly, so many ways to bet this. The, the most obvious bet by proxy, uh, if you were looking to bet something beyond just the side, would be, of course, Super Bowl MVP.
34:10
We have had 58 of these prior to this one. 58.
34:14
And, uh, let's look at a little some, some historical stats on these just to give us some context before you place your bet if you are considering placing a bet for Super Bowl 59 MVP.
34:24
Um, let's break it down in several ways.
34:26
Let's start with, um, you know, just again, Patrick Mahomes, just to, to let everybody know, not only are the Chiefs trying to be the first back-to-back-to-back Super Bowl winner in this era, but he's also trying to be the first back-to-back-to-back Super Bowl MVP ever.
34:41
Mm-hmm. There have only been two previous players to win back to backs. That was Terry Bradshaw with the Steelers in the '70s, and before that, Bart Starr of the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowls one and two.
34:55
So Mahomes trying to set a little personal history here as well. Um, as I look at that graphic, the last 10 MVP results, you see the two Mahomes'. Uh, he was a short plus money proposition at that point.
35:06
That's exactly what he is now- Yeah... this year. Which, which is interesting 'cause we've talked about that price drifting a bit. Yeah.
35:12
But you look at it kind of getting right in line with what it w- was the past two years. He was plus 125 last year. He was plus 130 the year before when he won MVPs for the Chiefs.
35:22
He started out in very short plus money, uh, when this two-week period began. He is now at plus 120. Remember the Cooper Kupp, uh, win the year before that when Cooper Kupp took it home at six to one?
35:34
I had an Aaron Donald ticket that year, and I felt so short-changed. I absolutely thought, I was convinced. We were doing the Super Bowl at the South Point. Yep.
35:44
I was convinced Aaron Donald was winning the, uh, MVP that year, and they gave it to Cooper Kupp. Couldn't believe it. Couldn't believe that.
35:49
And of course, the other one, uh, that is noteworthy in terms of, uh, them r- doing the old okie doke on us was Mahomes' first Super Bowl MVP. Remember, there was a first one. This'll be his fourth.
36:01
Not only back to back to back, it won't be his third, it'll be his fourth because he won one back in Super Bowl 54.
36:07
And remember, that was the one where we all thought Damien Williams was gonna win it for the Chiefs, and they gave it to Mahomes.
36:13
And then there's the Tom Brady Super Bowl, uh, if you recall back in the day, where we didn't think Brady would win it, um, and that that would go to James White. Yeah.
36:22
That was the, the Super Bowl against the Falcons, I believe. And Da- and Damien Williams still remains, uh, he's the only running back to go over 100 yards in the past 10 years, I believe is the stat I saw- Yeah...
36:33
in the Super Bowl, in the Super Bowl. This, uh, this ain't your mom and dad's NFL- Right... that's for sure. So those are the last 10. And again, Mahomes trying to make history here.
36:40
Uh, let's take a look at this in a, in another sort of contextual way in terms of Super Bowl history. This is Super Bowl MVP history winners by position.
36:47
So of the 58 Super Bowls that have already taken place, no surprise, quarterback by far the leader in the clubhouse. 33 of those 58 have gone to the signal caller. Uh, 33 have gone to the quarterback.
37:03
Defense as a catch-all would be second at 10, though we don't break down defense by position. We throw them all in together.
37:09
So 10 defensive players have won a Super Bowl MVP, seven running backs, most of those, as you just suggested, Kelly, sort of back in the day. Mm-hmm. Five wide outs, and then one kick returner/punt returner.
37:22
Do you remember who that was? Desmond Howard. Desmond Howard. For the Green Bay Packers at the time. Heisman Trophy winner, Super Bowl MVP, Desmond Howard.
37:31
By the way, the last defensive player, in case you were wondering, to win Super Bowl MVP, you have to go back to Von Miller of the Denver Broncos, Super Bowl 50. So that's what?
37:43
That's nine Super Bowls ago incl- uh, including this one. Nine Super Bowls ago, Von Miller of the Denver Broncos. From the turn of the century, from the year 2000, a grand total of four defensive players have won it.
37:56
So we'll get to, uh, this year's, uh, odds coming up momentarily in case you're considering that.
38:01
By the way, here are Super Bowl MVP history winners by position since 1998, so not quite exactly the, uh, the turn of the century, but a couple years before that.
38:09
Quarterbacks still by far the leaders, 16 since 1998 have been a quarterback. Five wide outs, and those are the four defensive players I was just talking about. Three linebackers and one defensive back.
38:20
Do you remember who the defensive back was? Uh, no. Dexter Jackson- That's right. Yeah... of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That's right. And it- After the 2002 season.
38:29
And this one notable 'cause '98 the last time we did have a running back win Super Bowl MVP. Yes.
38:34
So if you are kind of considering making some of those bets, which I'm sure a lot of people are this year with Saquon Barkley, uh, yeah, that's the last time we've had one.
38:41
Here, here is that list of, uh, defensive players. Thank you, guys, for these, uh, this historical.
38:45
In case you were considering a play on, I don't know, a Jalen Carter, taking a flyer on a Jalen Carter, or a Zach Baun or somebody in this Super Bowl. There's Von Miller with the Broncos at linebacker in 2016.
38:56
Malcolm Smith a couple years before that. Before that you have to go back more than a decade to that Dexter Jackson, uh, Super Bowl MVP. By the way, that's after the 2002 season, uh, early 2003.
39:07
Ray Lewis, of course, the most famous. They were tr- you know, they wanted to give this to Ray Lewis when the Ravens, uh, crushed the Giants, uh, after the 2000 season. Before that, Larry Brown of the Cowboys.
39:20
Did Larry Brown have three picks in that game, as I recall? Uh, he might have.
39:24
And then the, uh, the famous 1985 Chicago Bears, the team with the Super Bowl shuffle and what many consider to be the greatest defensive team of all time. Well, Jim McMahon wasn't gonna get it.
39:36
Sweetness didn't score, 'cause they gave the ball to Refrigerator Perry. They gave it to Richard Dent, one of the, uh, stalwarts of that great Bears defense after the 1985 season.
39:45
So those are the last six Super Bowl MVPs to have won on the defensive side of the ball.
39:49
I think I'm seeing two interceptions for Larry Brown, but what I think you're making a good point there, because if you're gonna pick- It was two. Yeah...
39:55
if you're gonna pick a defensive player to win, it's gotta be that type of production, right? You're talking multiple sacks usually or multiple picks in a big, uh, in a big situation in, in the game.
40:07
Just something to keep in mind.
40:08
I don't know about you, there's just, there's, uh, there's some interesting defensive pl- uh, defensive names this year, but nobody I'm really gravitating to, uh, towards f- uh, for a bet, just 'cause it, uh, it feels more random with the defensive players, right?
40:21
Like you need, you, you need a pass rusher almost that you can count on getting multiple sacks, and one of them coming in a, in a big moment. Yeah.
40:28
I think I was thinking of Rod Martin, who wo- who I think picked off three passes with the Raiders, uh, Super Bowl 15, and they still gave it to Jim Plunkett that year, when the Raiders beat the Eagles.
40:38
Um, as far as this year's Super Bowl MVP odds, Super Bowl 59, as we mentioned, Patrick Mahomes plus 120, the short shot. We were debating this.
40:48
Um, you know, is Patrick Mahomes, if you believe the Chiefs are winning the Super Bowl,
40:52
do you bet Patrick Mahomes by proxy at plus 120 thinking there's no possible way, especially given that Damien Williams story I just told, uh, or I just referred to, is there, is there any possible way that the Chiefs win the Super Bowl and Patrick Mahomes does not win the MVP?
41:06
Remember the big thing about voting on Super Bowl MVP, which I think is an, is a note that we don't emphasize enough, as opposed to season-long awards.
41:16
Season-long awards, voters get to pontificate, uh, get to, you know, equivocate about this in their heads for weeks on end. Mm-hmm. And they have data points from, from week to week to consider.
41:29
This is done on the fly during one game. So a lot of these folks put in their, their ballots after the third quarter. You know? We, we already know the winner sometimes.
41:43
I don't know if they do this anymore, but we used to know the winner. This is a true story. We used to know the winner before the game ended. Doug Williams is your Super Bowl MVP, before the game was even done.
41:54
Uh, Mahomes is plus 120, Saquon plus 260, Jalen Hurts plus 350. Same question applies.
42:00
If you believe the Eagles are going to win the Super Bowl, do you instead, or maybe in addition to, but instead is the more interesting question, do you put a bet on Barkley and/or Hurts given that bang for your buck?
42:13
Yeah. I think if, uh, if I were betting the Eagles side, I would be adding s- I would probably add some, some piece of Barkley. That's what I've been saying.
42:24
However, we did speak to Zack Cohen earlier, who brought up an interesting prop for this game, where you're getting a little better number on Saquon Barkley to have two p- two or more touchdowns. Mm.
42:35
What are the odds he wins this without having two touchdowns, I guess, is a good conversation. So I, like you're getting plus 290 on that. I think I'd almost rather bet that then. It's an interesting thing to consider.
42:45
Yeah.
42:45
I hadn't really thought about it, thought about it until we, we just spoke to Zack about it, but- Of course, if you bet the two touchdowns plus, and then he gets one touchdown and reels off 200 yards and he still wins MVP, you're gonna hate yourself.
42:54
And that's the scenario. Yeah. Uh, beyond those three, everybody else is double digits and beyond, Travis Kelce being the shortest of those at 15 to 1. And then it's 28 to 1 and longer starting with Xavier Worthy.
43:08
If I came to you from the future, Kelly Bidlin, and I said, "Guess what? They played Super Bowl 59. Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, none of those three won." Who won it? Who's the bet?
43:23
I wanna say Xavier Worthy, but I couldn't bet him at that number. 28 to 1, not, not enough? Yeah, I couldn't bet him at that number. [laughs] Who would it be then? Dallas Goedert maybe. Ooh.
43:34
Dallas G- I, I, no, my answer still would be Xavier Worthy, but like I'm just saying, if you're not giving me the money, I'm like, I'm not making that bet.
43:41
By the way, if we could ever have like a 12 to 3 Super Bowl, would they give it to a placekicker? I don't think so. [laughs] I'm just saying. Like, does it, I think it's gotta be more than that.
43:50
Harrison Butker, 200 to 1. Uh- I think it's gotta be like 18 to 3. What about like a D-Hop? Could he all of a sudden show up at 200 to 1? He could. DeAndre Hopkins.
43:59
Uh, the lowest defensive player, Chris Jones of the Chiefs at 60 to 1, Jalen Carter of the Eagles at 70 to 1, followed closely by Baun and Karlaftis for the Eagles and Chiefs respectively, both at 90 to 1.
44:12
[upbeat music] Super Bowl MVP, not just an interesting market into or unto itself, but also as a vehicle to bet by proxy if you don't really think betting the side is sexy enough.
44:25
Nice way to perhaps give you more bang for your buck. Coming back right here on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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