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Jan 31, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 31, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | January 31, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right, let's have some fun.
0:12
No Gil Alexander this morning on the Numbers Game. Joe Serallo here in for Gil, alongside Kelly Bedlam, the legend, my man. We're gonna have a great two hours together as we continue to get ready for Super Bowl 59.
0:24
A lot of other action going on in the world of sports. How about the great guests that we've got for this edition of a Numbers Game?
0:31
Paul Carr gonna join the show shortly as we break down some weekend Premier League action. We'll look at the matches going on on the pitch the next two to three days, as well as some futures market action as well.
0:42
Dallin Cuff gonna join the show to kick off hour two of the program as we look at a locked and loaded college hoops slate for the weekend to come. Kelly, how are you, my man? I'm excited to be working with you.
0:55
First time since August. Uh, it's been a little bit. It's great to have you in, Joe.
0:59
Gil, uh, with the day off, so, uh, he gets to enjoy that, doing some things i- in the big city, in the big city this weekend, uh, is Gil Alexander. So good to have you in, Joe.
1:08
I was wondering about something, and I love that we get to keep the crew on their toes on a Friday.
1:13
[laughs] Because I'm like, you know, whenever I watch Joe Serallo and cashing out at home, I think to myself, "Joe s- Joe looks like a louder guy in the studio, and I'm a louder guy."
1:23
So that might be quite a test for Darnell, our audio op today. So Darnell, happy Friday, man. You get to deal with that. [laughs] Gonna just see who can be the louder, uh, louder co-host here for the next two hours.
1:33
Look, when you're doing three hours solo every night- [laughs]... you've gotta keep the energy, all right? That's right.
1:38
I can't have the team in the back falling asleep when I'm doing this thing from 8:00 to 11:00 PM most nights. But, uh, I'll try to keep it a little more tame here for the next two hours. Kelly, let's get into it.
1:47
The 59th big game, just over a week away. I'm sure you and Gil have been breaking it down all week when you're not talking about my, uh, pro tennis playing lookalike here on the program.
1:57
[laughs] But let's get into some prop bets that we like off the top here. Kansas City, Philly. First off, we've got the new Super Bowl betting guide- Mm-hmm. That's right... out right now. Vsin.com.
2:08
If you're a pro subscriber, you've gotta get on that. So I know everyone's got their, uh, score and their Super Bowl MVP pick in that. What did you submit for that, Kelly? Oh, that was, uh, I had Chiefs.
2:20
Let's see if I can remember the exact final score. I put in 31 to 27, I believe, is what I put in for the Kansas City Chiefs. So yes, Chiefs to cover, and the over is where I'd be looking.
2:31
And just looking at side and total here, Joe, I, I think really th- the story of the week so far, um, look, it's the Super Bowl in 2024.
2:38
We don't see a lot of movement on these numbers usually when it comes to side and total- Right... uh, in the first week.
2:44
Uh, we'll see some usually after it opens, and then it usually gets quiet for a bit, and then maybe it will change a little bit as we get closer to the game.
2:50
I think the surprise to me, though, is that this to- total's still hovering around 49. 48 and a half, 49 is where we're seeing it at, uh, basically across the board. DraftKings with a 48 and a half.
3:00
Everywhere else I'm looking at on my odd screen's a 49 right now. Uh, a couple key offshores at 49 and a half. But I think that, I think we're gonna see this go up.
3:08
I, I'm a little surprised we still haven't hit 50, uh, mainly across the board.
3:11
And not a bet for me yet, but I'm watching this total, 'cause if it, if it gets below, gets to 48 or below, I'm probably jumping in with a little bit of money on the over in this game. I mean, wouldn't you have to?
3:22
Like, the fact that this was 49 and a half a minute ago, and now it's already ticked down, there's gotta be buyback incoming, and I would expect tons of it, frankly, because when I was capping this one, when I was figuring out where my numbers would be, I had 51 and a half to 52 and a half as the total in this game.
3:36
I mean, look, I know Kansas City has a great defense. Steve Spagnuolo, you can never go against him in the Super Bowl. Like you, I'm on the Chiefs in this one as well.
3:44
But at the end of the day, you could have a Steve Spagnuolo defense on one side. You could have Vic Fangio's number one defense in the NFL on the other side. You know these offenses are gonna put up fireworks.
3:54
You know Mahomes is gonna get his, and you know Saquon and Jalen Hurts and AG- I mean, they just have too many weapons to be denied. Yeah, it's gonna... I, I think it's a really interesting matchup.
4:03
I know there, I know there's a little bit of Chiefs fatigue out there. I get it to a degree. Not for me. To a degree. [laughs] If you've been betting on them or you're a Kansas City fan- [laughs]...
4:10
you don't have any fatigue, that's for sure.
4:11
But I think it's a fascinating matchup, 'cause I do think that, I think the biggest mi- s- uh, singular mismatch in this game is that, is that Philadelphia defensive front versus Chiefs offensive line that's had to m- you know, uh, move around some pieces there.
4:25
It, it, it's got a little weaker in the middle. And really interested to see how those defensive tackles of Philadelphia look to blow up this game, uh, o- on that side of the ball.
4:34
But I think what that mean, what that's gonna mean for the Chiefs offense is they're gonna be throwing a little bit more than w- than what we're used to this regular season.
4:42
We know the Chiefs save some of the good plays for these type of games anyways. So I expect to see some fireworks there.
4:47
And man, don't look now, but this Chiefs rush defense is not what it was at the be- middle of the year, beginning of the season. And Saquon Barkley, he could eat again in this game.
4:56
It wouldn't surprise, uh, it wouldn't shock me at all. Yeah, look, I'm not playing the 115 and a half, uh, for Saquon. These totals are just coming in astronomically high week after week.
5:05
But y- what you said about Kansas City's run defense, James Cook, you can argue part of the problem with Buffalo in the AFC championship game was they didn't feed James Cook enough.
5:14
Kansas City sold out to stop Josh Allen's legs- Mm-hmm... and they were very successful in doing that. I mean, what was he, 0 for four on tush pushes? Yeah. I know he had the one where he went over the top.
5:23
But when he actually tried to go behind his left guard's rear, uh, they were 0 for four on such plays, so. But, but even think about that going over the top, Joe. They were so much in his head, right?
5:32
They're in his- Yeah... in, they were in the Bill's head from stopping that, that Josh Allen had to go over the top at midfield- [laughs]... which, like, you should never do because that ball- It's goal line only...
5:41
can get smacked out of there. Yeah, exactly. And that's what they were talking about, because I think di- didn't he fumble it on that play? He fumbled it. He s- And then he recovered his own fumble, but exactly.
5:48
That's a goal line only play right there out of Allen. And Kansas City just did a great job selling out to stop him. But James Cook, while he was limited, just 13 carries, he got his, almost 90 yards on 13 carries.
5:59
So I think if you're the Chiefs right here, you've gotta sell out to stop someone. Are you gonna sell out to stop Saquon, or are you gonna sell out to stop Jalen Hurts and not let him beat you with his legs?
6:08
You make Jalen Hurts throw the ball- Yeah... and then our predictions come to fruition. You win the game. Right. I mean, look at Jalen Hurts' Super Bowl 57. He was 27 of 38, 305 yards.
6:17
Statistically, he had a really good performance. But because he had to throw the ball damn near 40 times, I think that's what sunk Philadelphia.
6:24
You look at Hurts in the playoffs, in his three losses, they're also the only three playoff games he's ever thrown 30 or more attempts in. He's never had to throw the ball 30 times in a postseason win.
6:35
He's done it in all three of his postseason losses. So with that said- Can I interest you in any Jalen Hurts overs on completions or attempts?
6:43
It's, it's interesting, 'cause I, I have no bets yet on the Philadelphia prop side, because I thi- I would be, I would be more interested in getting involved with those live, Joe.
6:52
'Cause I wanna see how they, how they attack this game pr- offensively, Philadelphia.
6:57
Because I do think, given the, given, given the, uh, uh, uh, problems with stopping the run for Kansas City recently, I think Philadelphia's gonna try to run.
7:05
Like you're talking about, though, I'm not gonna be shocked at all if Kansas City kinda sells out to load up the box, try to stop the run, and then Jalen Hurts also sh- has struggled this season against the blitz.
7:15
So even on passing downs, I expect the Chiefs to be sending guys. I think you're gonna see a lot of Chiefs defenders near that line of scrimmage.
7:21
And like you're talking about, it, that opens up the possibility of one-on-one coverages or looser zone coverages on the outside for A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith. We know the Chiefs have struggled against tight ends.
7:32
You've heard that probably a million times already this week. Yeah. Dallas Goedert, I know there's a lot of bets on overs out there. So it could end up equaling a, a huge Jalen Hurts game. Wouldn't surprise me at all.
7:43
I gotta see how the Chiefs are gonna, uh, wind up, though, against this, uh, Eagles offense first, and then I would maybe be more interested in getting in on live props. Remember, we got live everything these days.
7:53
There's no reason you have to bet anything pre-game when you've got all these live options.
7:56
So I, I'm in a similar position as you, Kelly, where so far, the four plays that I have in pocket in the prop market are all on the Kansas City side. Yeah, me too. All four of them. Yep.
8:06
But I will, it's a matter of when, not if, I will be doing something fun with Jalen Hurts. Because if you go up the ladder on his attempts and his completions, now this is courtesy of our friends at DraftKings right now.
8:19
His over-under on completions, 18 and a half, right? And that's plus 102 to the over. If you go for just one more completion, 20 plus, right? If you take over 18 and a half, obviously you're looking for 19.
8:31
So if you go 20 plus, you're getting 30 more cents on that. You're getting plus 133 for 20 or more completions. He had 27 in Super Bowl LVII. Now, on 25 or more completions, you're getting seven to one on that.
8:45
It's not a full unit play for me, but I'd be remiss not to sprinkle something on that. When he had 27 the last time these two squared off in the Super Bowl.
8:53
Attempts, also, this is probably my favorite, 30 or more attempts, plus 160. I just feel like he's gonna have to throw the ball. Kansas City's going to make him win this game with his arm.
9:03
They are not going to let him and Saquon win it with their legs. Steve Spagnuolo's too good. Andy Reid and this team, uh, they've been there, done that, you know? Yeah.
9:09
That, that would be such a rookie mistake if they let Philly win this game with their legs, and this team's just been around too long to let that happen.
9:16
Yeah, the completions verse attempts is always an interesting conversation. I, I know that there's, uh, others on the Mahomes side that I've, I've heard.
9:23
We've had, we've had guests on the show this week that have bo- been on both, either attempts or completions when it comes to Mahomes.
9:29
And with Hurts, I, I think the attempts is usually all about game script to me, because it is... Okay, what are the, what are the Eagles offense gonna have to do?
9:38
And then attempts always becomes a little bit more valuable, too, if you think a team's gonna be playing from behind, right? When they're gonna be forced to throw the ball. So I, I, I don't hate either one of those.
9:47
I, again, I'm gonna wait to see live, but it wouldn't shock me at all if that's how, if that's how the game played out.
9:52
Simply, simply, Joe, because if you're the Chiefs and Spags, the one thing you can't have happen is that you lose the Super Bowl because Saquon Barkley ran all over you. Right.
10:01
A- and that's, and look, we're both on Kansas City. You said what, 31-27? Yeah. My score was 30-24. I think I had the most lopsided Chiefs win in the entire betting guide. [laughs] KC by six.
10:12
Uh, but if we're both on Kansas City, then that would certainly feed into the over on attempts. If Philadelphia's playing from behind, Hurts is gonna have to throw the ball.
10:21
All right, just over a minute to go here, Kelly. We both like Kansas City, we both like points. Given our final score predictions, we'd both be on the over.
10:27
Anytime touchdown plays, who gets in the end zone for our Chiefs? Oh, man, great question. I haven't bet any of those yet. Kareem Hunt would be a look for me early.
10:35
I, uh, yeah, well, wait- Six straight playoff games with Kansas City he scored. Is that the number? I believe that is correct.
10:39
We gotta cr- we, we're gonna have to talk our Chiefs props here, but the ones I've attacked so far are the rushing props. I played Kareem Hunt as soon as they came out.
10:46
Kareem Hunt over on his rushing yardage, and then Isiah Pacheco under on his longest rush, uh, of the game. That, those were... I, I jumped on those early. This could change. I bet these a little, same, similar props.
10:57
I bet them a little heavier in the AFC championship ga- game, Joe, 'cause it was very, it had become very apparent, and I think it was very obvious after the AFC championship game, that Isiah Pacheco isn't fully healthy yet, or he ain't fully right with this offense yet.
11:10
Yeah. And Kareem Hunt's got a lot more burst back there for them. So wanted to target the overs on him, unders on Pacheco. The only hesitancy for me, it's two weeks.
11:19
It's two weeks off, two weeks more for Pa- Pacheco to maybe get a little healthier, if that is a problem. So dialed back a little bit, but those are the ones that I bet.
11:27
Last time these two teams met, everyone was worried about that Mahomes high ankle sprain. He had two weeks off, ran rampant against the Philadelphia Eagles. We were on Mahomes in that one.
11:35
I've got a Mahomes rushing prop in this one I love, and you'll hear about it on the other side. He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Joe Serallo. It's a Numbers Game. More to come.
11:42
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:02
It's a Numbers Game here on VSiN. He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Joe Serallo, taking you through your Friday morning.
12:08
Make sure you get involved with the show, @thejoeserallo on Twitter, @VSINLive across all socials, @kellybidlin on Twitter. Best tweets get read on the program. Worst tweets, of course, get blocked.
12:19
I don't know if that's Gil's policy. That's what we do- Oh... on cashing out, 'cause late night, sometimes people are hitting the bottle.
12:24
[laughs] They tweet in at the show, and we've gotta, we've gotta set some ground rules there, Kelly. Uh, Joe fo- found all my burner accounts. [laughs] Dang, man. Oh, boy.
12:31
And I, th- th- no, what we always say, Joe, is y- you can be nice or you can be mean, just be funny. Just be funny. So- That's a great policy.
12:37
Let's, let's see if we've got funny here from our guy @Scola_10, who tweets, "@kellybidlin Good morning." Oh, er- Did we just lose the tweet? Yeah, we got... I got it in front of me. Oh, okay. Good mor- good morning.
12:49
If you could please ask Taylor Fritz or Joe what his thoughts on, on your walkover rule in tennis.
12:54
Now, see, Joe, obviously we've talked a lot about on the show how you look exactly like Taylor Fritz, but, uh- I was watching yesterday. Yeah, I caught that... came up again yesterday. There, there it is.
13:03
[laughs] There it is. Are we really sure those two aren't brothers? Look at that. The squinty eyes too, that, that was the selling point for me. I was like, "I've gotta get the squinty eyes there to match."
13:11
It's incredible. So, so my walkover rule, I always bring this up with, uh, w- with Gil. We've talked about this for years now. Uh, I would like when...
13:18
You know, walkover is when, when it, when one of the tennis players decides to quit right in the middle of a match, right? And then they call it a walkover for the opponent, okay?
13:26
I always said that they should be forced, uh, Tai Lu style, to have to lay in a prone position on the court and the winner literally walk over them- Oh, my goodness... Allen Iverson style. Okay?
13:36
So that's- Then they'd have to call that the walk of shame, Kelly. [laughs] They'd have to rename it at that point from walkover to walk of shame. All right, well, that, there you go.
13:43
That's how Joe feels about it, apparently. Gotta change the name from walkover. I just thought walkover sounded cool, and it wasn't dramatic enough, you know? Yeah. It's just someone quitting.
13:50
No, I wanna see someone get walked over literally. [laughs] I love it. Kelly, as promised, we've got more props to get to. Super Bowl 59 coming up.
13:57
We've also got a lot of news from last night in the NBA to get to, some Major League Baseball off-season news. They call it the Hot Stove. It's, it's pretty cool. Bregman's still out there. Pete Alonso's still out there.
14:08
We need things to heat up before pitchers and catchers report, but we'll get to all that. We mentioned rushing props. Mm-hmm. And Kareem Hunt, I, I agree with you. I think that's the way to go.
14:17
Look, two years ago, everyone was talking about Mahomes and a high ankle sprain, and I thought Mahomes was gonna be fine. He had the two weeks off. He just played a great AFC Championship game against Cincinnati.
14:27
I wasn't too worried. This Isaiah Pacheco situation, to your point, feels a little bit different.
14:33
And Pacheco, a guy who's been in two Super Bowls, who's had 15 or more carries in each Super Bowl, now his total's coming in at what, six and a half rush attempts? Yep.
14:42
And I think that is with very- Down to five and a half. Wow. Wow. That is with very good reason. He has just not looked the same since he broke his leg.
14:51
And there's a big difference between an ankle sprain, even though a high ankle sprain is tough, big difference between a sprain and a broken leg. And I'm with you.
14:59
I just don't know how effective Pacheco's gonna be in this one. Yeah, the one that I b- I think you could, I think you could attack it multiple ways, right? Yardage, attempts.
15:06
Longest rush is what I went with, under eight and a half. That number's still pretty much out there. I bet it under eight and a half at minus 105. I'm seeing MGM has that up right now.
15:14
Um, so it's, you know, similar pricing on that still. Kareem Hunt number has gone up a little bit. But yeah, I, I, I'm with you.
15:21
I don't, I don't expect it to necessarily affect the, you know, outcome of this game too much. Obviously, the Chiefs got by the Buffalo Bills.
15:29
Uh, I think the Bills are h- honestly a better team than where the Eagles are at right now. Ooh. Uh, it's- That's a bit of a hot take... Eagles are good.
15:35
I, uh, Josh Allen of the Bills, I, I still think is a g- is a great team that got bounced. Um, but yeah, I think Pacheco... They'll be able to survive because Kareem Hunt's been awesome for them.
15:44
It, it is one of those stories we don't talk about enough, uh, how great he's been for that team. So I'm with you. I think there's a legit concern there with Pacheco. Could two weeks change things?
15:54
Sure, but it, not enough for me not, uh, to shy away from a bet. So what do we think about Patrick Mahomes' legs in this one?
16:00
Because what we saw from Mahomes, and you mentioned this, and it was a great point that you kind of subtly threw in there in the opening, that Kansas City always seems to have tricks up their sleeve.
16:09
And, and they threw things at Buffalo that the Bills weren't expecting, and they'll do the same with Philadelphia.
16:13
I- it's why I was not phased in the slightest by that week 11 loss from, uh, the Chiefs, you know, to Buffalo, because Buffalo showed their full hand in that week 11 regular season game.
16:23
They threw everything Kansas City could handle at them. Kansas City was content losing that game without revealing all their cards. So you know the Chiefs are gonna have surprises.
16:31
In the AFC Championship game, it was the designed runs for Patrick Mahomes. That RPO they ran first and goal from Buffalo's 10 that resulted in Mahomes lowering his shoulder into Damar Hamlin for a touchdown.
16:42
That was a rarity because usually Mahomes, when he runs in the postseason, it's more of a scramble. Pocket collapses, he takes off, best vision in the game. But they were working in some designed runs there.
16:51
My favorite Mahomes play in the postseason is going over on his longest rush. 11 and a half currently the best number out there, although it's heavily juiced now. It's minus 140 at MGM.
17:02
I got it minus 110 way back on Tuesday morning, and I think he's a lock to go over 11 and a half. I would even take 12 and a half at a, at a better price now if you can.
17:13
I saw yesterday there was 12 and a half minus 115, little friendlier on the juice front. I think he goes over 11 and a half, 12 and a half, you name it. He's had a carry of 13 or more 11 of his last 18 playoff games.
17:24
Yeah, it, it, you know, it's not just a Mahomes thing. It's a lot of these quarterbacks that use their legs. Playoff time comes, okay, you're not as worried about get, as g- getting hurt as much anymore, right?
17:33
So it's takeoff when you see the openings more. We see Mahomes become way more aggressive running the ball in the playoffs. I, I think you could look over every- everywhere. That's where I would lean with Mahomes.
17:43
I mean, over his rush attempts, over his yardage. Just the one thing you gotta be careful with the yardage is if he starts taking long knees again, Joe. Right, and that's why I never play his rushing yards.
17:53
I look for longest carry, I look for attempts, but the, the kneel down factor always scares me away from the, the total rushing yards when it comes to Mahomes.
18:01
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18:06
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18:12
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18:27
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18:38
Kelly, a little bit of NBA action on a Thursday night. Uh- A lot of these games, let's call it what it is, were, were kinda duds, but this Memphis-Houston game- Mm-hmm... absolutely lived up to the billing there.
18:51
Amen Thompson has just been on an absolute roll lately. And even though the Rockets didn't come out on the right side, uh, he's been popular, whether it's betting points, the points, rebounds, assists.
19:00
He's just been a cash cow lately. Have you been riding him and the Rockets lately? Uh, Rockets a little bit more, not exactly Amen props, but man, you are right, he is, uh, turning into a special player.
19:09
I mean, just fills up the bo- uh, box score, right?
19:12
21 points last night, seven rebounds, four assists, one steal, four blocks, uh, you know, pretty, pretty good for a guy that you can shift around multiple positions too.
19:20
I would tell you, soon, soon as him and his brother learn how to shoot the ball a little better- [laughs]... oh boy, watch out NBA, 'cause he is, uh, definitely, definitely a rising star.
19:28
I think bigger takeaway from that game last night though, uh, i- is just Memphis. This is... I mean, these are two of the top teams in the Western Conference.
19:34
Memphis being able to come away with a win without Ja Morant on the court, which is usually always a point where they struggle with. So, uh, Jaren Jackson Jr.
19:42
having a big game, Desmond Bane having a big game as well to help, uh, keep things moving.
19:46
I think one of the more interesting storylines from the NBA yesterday though, Joe, was just seeing some of these All-Star reserves get announced, which if you bet awards, keep in mind, this stuff does ha- it does come into play very often when you go back and look at trends, and, uh, some of these guys that have won Most Improved Player, it's ano- that's one where it especially sticks out.
20:06
Some of these guys that get named All-Stars for the first time, goes a long way for their Most Improved Player, uh, resume. So, uh, Evan Mobley, Cade Cunningham, Tyler Herro all named Eastern Conference reserves.
20:18
If you have tickets on any of those guys, that is a good stock up, uh, for you in my opinion.
20:24
Uh, I have tickets on Cade Cunningham and Tyler Herro, so I was, uh, uh, nervously awaiting what the, what to see that, those announcements.
20:30
Um, and if you were on Norman Powell, he did not get the nod for the All-Star Game this year. So, uh, just something to keep in mind as, uh, as you're, uh, making awards bets.
20:39
Those are things you wanna check on, especially Most Improved. How much does a Tyler Herro ticket get aided by this Jimmy Butler drama? Because, I mean, right now he's the go-to guy.
20:49
I would imagine that if you've got Herro in pocket for something like Most Improved, and with Butler out and all this drama and three suspensions in the last month, it's like me in middle school all over again.
20:58
[laughs] I'd imagine that Herro, you'd feel pretty good about that ticket. Uh, J- Joe, tee it up questions I could talk about for two hours, okay? Be careful here.
21:05
[laughs] Um, the, I, I think it's an interesting situation. When I made the bet, Michael Montesano was off, often on this show. He kinda alerted me to the price that was out there on him at 55 to 1.
21:14
We were able to get in. We woke up, like, two days later, and he was into single digits, uh, i- play- playing a great year for the Miami Heat. But that was one of the questions I threw out right away to him.
21:24
I, and this was, this is six, eight weeks ago at this point. Do we feel like we have a better chance with this ticket with Jimmy Butler off the team or on the team?
21:32
Because theory, you would think theoretically on the team, the Heat are gonna have a better record. They're going to be a better team. He might get m- noticed more because of that, right?
21:41
Or the flip side of get Jimmy Butler out of here. Let's get the usage rate up even more with Tyler Herro. Fill up the stat sheet. Is that the way we get home? And I think it probably is the secondary one. Yeah.
21:53
What's going on right now, the problem is, Joe, is it's not situation A or B that I just outlined. We're in situation C, where he's still just stuck on the team. Nothing's happening at all.
22:03
He's being suspended left and right, and it's not helping B at all. Yeah, he's on the team, but he's not on the court. Exactly.
22:07
Which I, I think, you know, that, that kind of obviously goes closer to situation B and certainly behooves Herro. I mean, would you rather Herro giving you 18 a game on, on a team that's, what, maybe the seven seed?
22:18
Or would you rather maybe they fall to the 10 seed, but he's giving you 25, 26 a game? Yeah, it's- It's an individual award. I, I would assume the latter. It's the latter. Yeah, it's the latter.
22:26
You know, the question at the time though was could they be a team that climbs to the three or four seed, right? Right, and that seems like it's- That ain't happening anymore, yeah...
22:32
out of the equation in the Eastern Conference right now. Gonna hit the pitch. Up next, little Premier League action with our guy Paul Carr. He's Kelly Bidlin. I'm Joe Serallo. It's a Numbers Game.
22:41
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23:43
I'm Joe Serallo in for Gil Alexander on this beautiful Friday morning. He's Kelly Bidlin, of course, alongside myself here at the desk. And now we're gonna take you to the progressive guest line.
23:53
It's time for some soccer talk with our guy Paul Carr from True Media Sports joining the program. Paul, how are you? Let's open up with the draw from the Champions League this morning.
24:04
What was your biggest takeaway from that? Yes, this is the draw for the, they call it the playoff round.
24:08
It's basically the round of 32, but there's only eight match-ups because eight teams have got byes to the round of 16. Uh, the headline is very clearly Manchester City against Real Madrid.
24:18
Both underachieved a little bit during the league phase, so they fell down and then got drawn against each other here. They're meeting for the fourth straight time. Um, Man City was the favorite before the season began.
24:29
They've really struggled, so they're not right now. And Real Madrid is the defending champion and seems to win every year.
24:34
So you've got two of the, whatever, five best clubs in the world on the whole, uh, playing in this round, and one of them obviously won't advance, so that's your headline by far All right, Paul, you, uh, you're, you've been red hot on the show.
24:45
I believe it was two and one the other day in Champions League again. Uh, what- wanna start here with a question Tim Lawson tweeted into the show, as he often does. Always appreciate. Yeah.
24:54
Said, "How much consideration does Paul Carr give midweek Eur- Europe tournament matches when handicapping weekend EPL matches? Is player rest a factor after several matches in two weeks?"
25:07
Yeah, it's a thing for sure, especially if there's, you know, an extra day or two for one team or the other. Obviously, it depends on lineups.
25:14
You know, you look at a team like Liverpool this week, and they rotated heavily because their Champions League game didn't mean much, so, you know, obviously that doesn't really factor in. Um, it's a thing.
25:22
It's, I would say maybe a little bit, like, or it gets m- to be more of a thing later in the season, where the legs are just getting more tired, and it also depends on the squad.
25:32
You know, a team like Aston Villa, which is in Champions League for the first time and just doesn't quite have the depth, or Man City really, because, uh, you, you could argue, you know, they don't have the depth either.
25:42
It's not gonna slow me down this week, as we'll get to, but it's always something you gotta keep in mind. Who played, uh, how much they played, how thin or, uh, deep is this team.
25:52
It's always something you have to factor in. Yeah, Paul, you pretty much took care of the segue right there. Let's get into that Man City contest on Sunday, taking on Arsenal. You find a lot of value in this match, huh?
26:02
Yeah. This is, uh, the big one of the weekend, and I'm not sure I've bet on Man City all season. I've been fading them pretty heavily and successfully, at least since October.
26:11
So, uh, but I like the price on a Man City win at Arsenal. Uh, it's at plus 270, and for a little context, when they played last season at Arsenal, City was plus 150 to win the game.
26:25
And yes, City is not as good as they were. I'm not sure Arsenal's as good as they were either.
26:30
They certainly are not in attack as good as they were last year because Bukayo Saka, uh, is injured, and they don't even have Gabriel Jesus to either come off the bench or start up top.
26:39
So I'm just not sure that Arsenal... They definitely don't have the firepower. Um, I, I would put it this way.
26:45
If you were picking a combined lineup of these teams, you might take Arsenal's whole back four and maybe their midfield, but you would take City's attacking front three.
26:54
So that's kind of where you're gonna see a strength versus, versus strength matchup here. Uh, City's attack has been clicking lately. De Bruyne is healthy.
27:02
Foden is looking like Phil Foden again after a pretty awful first half of the season. Uh, so again, it's plus 270.
27:09
I'm not saying Man City's definitely winning this game, but I think that price has just gotten too inflated, and given Arsenal's limited attacking options and abilities, I think it's a pretty good price to get here.
27:19
Yeah, if you've been listening to this show throughout, uh, throughout the season so far, you have not heard Paul Carr on Man City, uh, at all and against him, against Man City very often. Yeah.
27:28
So, uh, surprising play there. You know it's a good price. Uh, sticking it out to Paul. Let's start with Saturday. I know you got three bets for us. We got Everton, uh, taking on Leicester here.
27:37
What, what do you like in this game? Match. Yeah, I'm not su- I'm not sure. You can call it a game. That's okay. [laughs] We're in America. We can, we can use either one.
27:43
I thought I'd be the first one to make that blunder. [laughs] No, it's all good. Well, well, it's... This conversation would come up a lot at, at ESPN and all the TV I've worked on.
27:51
You call it what you call it, you know? If I try to use certain British soccerisms, footballisms, then it sounds like I'm trying too hard or my tongue gets tangled.
28:00
Uh, so it's just really what's natural, and, you know, we can all be adults here and know that there's different terms that mean the same thing. Yeah, yeah. Well, let's get back to the fixture, though. Yeah, yeah.
28:07
The specific- The fixture. We'll get you. We'll, we'll- When in doubt, contest, right? When in doubt, contest. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, so, uh, Everton, Leicester City.
28:14
Uh, I'm not sure I've bet Everton all season either, but I have faded Leicester City a lot. I mean, they're newly promoted. They're relegation threatened for a reason.
28:21
They're, I mean, they're that, that's just kind of the caliber of team that they have. Uh, Everton has been in that relegation battle for much of the season. They're still kind of there, but they've stabilized a bit.
28:32
David Moyes, their former manager, who was manager when Tim Howard and such were there, uh, is back. He took over three games ago.
28:38
He's got two wins and a competitive loss against Aston Villa, and really just stabilized the defense especially. Uh, they're giving up worse shots.
28:46
I mean, that's a good thing for a defense, and they're generating enough offensively to create a few good chances per game, convert one or two, and get three points.
28:54
Uh, Leicester, they have a new manager too, Rudi Garcia, who was a Manchester United star but doesn't have a lot of managerial experience. They haven't...
29:02
They've been almost less attacking under him than they were before. Six shots per game on the road under Rudi Garcia, and most of those opponents were a little bit better than Everton.
29:12
But again, Everton's defense has been better the last few games. I just like Everton to straight win this. They're the better team. They're at home. Minus 130 isn't too juicy for me.
29:20
He's Paul Carr with us on the Progressive guest line right now. Make sure you follow him on Twitter, @paulcarr. Check out the Expected Value podcast. You've given out a couple of sides for the weekend, Paul.
29:30
How about a total? What do you like in the Tottenham match on- Yeah... Saturday, or Sunday- Brentford... excuse me. Yeah, so this one's Sunday, Brentford, Tottenham.
29:37
Uh, Brentford, both these teams have really been not quite over machines, but pretty close so far this season. So I like over three and a half at minus 120. I don't know what the result is gonna be here.
29:48
Like, if you told me it's four-nil either way or three-three, I'd be like, "Sure, yeah, I can see that." Uh, but I think there's gonna be goals.
29:55
Both teams, top six in goals scored, bottom seven in goals against, and all the underlying numbers support similar things. Tottenham gives up really good shots, so that's obviously bad for a defense.
30:06
Brentford is more patient, takes best shots, finds good transition opportunities, and Tottenham's defense has been not that great in that situation especially. Uh, Brentford, like I said, not a defensive juggernaut.
30:16
They've allowed the most shots in the league. So all that to say, both teams, decent to good in attack, not so good defensively. Tottenham is very thin because of injuries. Like, half their ideal starting lineup is out.
30:29
Uh, I think the second half especially could get open as these teams kind of wear down and things get a little bit crazy. So over three and a half, minus 120, my Brentford, Tottenham pick on Sunday. Like it'll like it.
30:41
Paul, what, wanna talk to you real quick about top goal scorer for Premier League. I know we ta- hit on this a couple weeks ago, a few weeks ago. Yeah. Uh, this race is really, really fascinating.
30:49
You got Mo Salah right now with 19, Erling Haaland 18, uh, and then Alexander Isak with, uh- Got it... 17. Thank you. Yeah, I got it. Uh, Haaland even money right now. Mo Salah plus 110, Isak five to one.
31:01
Anything on the board there that you think, think has some value to bet right now? Yeah, couple kind of conflicting takes, but, uh, yeah, Isak five to one is your longer shot if you want it.
31:11
He took a penalty last weekend, which we kinda thought he would, but he hadn't taken one so far this season for Newcastle, in part 'cause they'd only had one all season. So that's a good sign.
31:21
You know, Isak has a chance to make a run if anyone's coming from Duke. Uh, the flip side is, like, look, Erling Ha- Erling Haaland is even money. I mean, he was juicy before the season.
31:30
I forget, it might've been, like, minus 150, maybe worse- Yeah... for him to win Golden Boot. Um, and City's attack is getting healthy. Mentioned De Bruyne is back.
31:39
So, I mean, even money on Haaland, like, that, that's pretty tempting that he could just rip off another, you know, 10 goals in seven games type of thing like he can so easily.
31:50
'Cause he hasn't been bad this season, even though that's the perception, 'cause, look, he's right there at the top of the Golden Boot race.
31:55
So I don't hate putting something on him at even money, because I don't know if you'll see that good a price on him the rest of the year.
32:02
Paul, I'm curious, before we let you go here, you gave out a pretty, pretty juicy value play with Man City earlier on in the segment. Any other value on the card this weekend?
32:12
I mean, you mentioned the Brentford-Tottenham game. Would you, at plus 225, wanna take Tottenham there? You said you could see that one go four-nil either way. Any other value, any dogs that really, uh, have your eye?
32:24
Yeah, Tottenham, n- no, I don't trust Tottenham that much. [laughs] Uh, one of the other big games of the week is Bournemouth against Liverpool. Bournemouth's at home.
32:31
They've been playing, like, a top six or so team this season. Pretty tempted there. Like, draw's at plus 320. Anytime you get a draw over 300, that's, uh, pretty enticing to me.
32:42
So there, if you wanted a safer play, you know, Bournemouth double chance, plus 115 or so, I don't hate. Uh, but if you're looking for another long shot, Bournemouth-Liverpool draw plus 320 is probably where I'd go.
32:52
I love it, and seeing as high on Bournemouth is plus 360 now- Ooh... in the market on DraftKings. He's our guy, Paul Carr. Thanks so much for the time, man. Appreciate you hopping on. You bet. Have a good weekend.
33:02
Make sure you follow him on Twitter, @paulcarr. Check out that Expected Value podcast. Kelly, how much soccer betting are you doing these days? You know what? It's always been one of those sports I wish I bet more.
33:12
I, I, but luckily we have Paul on so often, if you've just been tailing him i- in this past month or two on the show, you've been doing quite well, 'cause he's been on a heater.
33:19
Uh, but it's one of those, it's a fascinating handicap to me, and I, I love getting involved with sports where it's a really interesting handicap, so. I mean, my only issue, when do these go off?
33:28
Ar- aren't they 5:00, 6:00 AM our time on a Saturday morning? Uh, sometimes they're pretty early, but you know, you get those bigger games, they're about noon b- on the West Coast Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I was cashing out.
33:36
I don't get to bet until 2:00 AM. That's right. I don't know if I'm making it up for that. Gonna take a look at Pebble Beach up next. It's a Numbers Game. He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Serala.
33:44
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game continues.
33:58
He's Kelly Bedlam, I'm Joe Serala, taking you through your beautiful Friday morning from the gorgeous Circa Resort and Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Kelly, Pebble Beach, second round- Yeah, we're-...
34:10
starts in just a few minutes... we're starting just in a couple hours, and, uh, since you're, we got the Taylor Fritz lookalike in the house, let's go country clubbing. Let's go. Let's go.
34:18
[upbeat country music] [laughs] That's right, Joe. There we go. This is what we play whenever we go to talk golf or tennis on the show. That's a new thing, country clubbing. We'll go with it, so.
34:28
This was not in the rundown. I, I didn't- It is... I didn't get prepped for that. Had to surprise you with that one a little bit. [laughs] Uh, yeah, so first round yesterday, Russell Henley, your first round leader.
34:37
If you listened to Long Shots this week, you listened to me do fantastic mental gymnastics of talking myself out of bet- [laughs]... of betting Russell Henley this week.
34:46
So I'm feeling like quite an idiot after yesterday. Uh, he's got a one-shot lead, though, on a bunch of guys, uh, tied at seven under par.
34:53
You will notice a couple big names there, uh, including Sepp Straka, who has won recently. Rory McIlroy, two shots back at six under par. Justin Thomas with him. Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, all six under.
35:06
Scottie Scheffler making his return this week at five under par. Second round action getting started here in about an hour. No second round matchup bets for, uh, for me. No adds, uh, yet, Joe.
35:18
Wanna see what play, play looks like today. We saw very, very easy scoring conditions yesterday. Very light wind.
35:26
We talked about that leading into the tournament, that it looked like the first couple days were gonna be gettable. S- course was very scoreable yesterday.
35:33
I think you're gonna see a lot of the same again today, hence why you have some of the names, uh, up there that you do.
35:39
Cam Davis, Sepp Straka, these are guys that can really attack some of these easier sc- easier, uh, courses to score on.
35:46
Viktor Hovland not really coming in in great form, but, uh, went seven under yesterday in his first round. Little bit of surprise there as well, but he's a guy that can go low on these easier, uh, scoring courses.
35:57
So no adds for me today. I think if you were looking for an outright, uh, to add, you could look at some of these guys that did, that did have some worse putting performances yesterday.
36:08
Putting performance is high variance stat. We like to see, we see a lot of bounce back with that over the course of a tournament. Not the gr- not the best number.
36:15
I think the books are all over it, but the one guy that did jump out to me immediately was Justin Thomas at seven to one.
36:21
You're not get- you're getting about half the price that he went off on, uh, at, to start the tournament. JT was a guy, though, I was eyeing. I know that Matt Brown had bet him this week.
36:31
Uh, very good performances so far to start the year for JT. Played great tee to green yesterday.
36:36
Lost a little bit on the, uh, on the greens putting I expect him to bounce back over the course of the tournament, especially as it looks like winds are gonna pick up over the weekend.
36:45
Scoring conditions are gonna get tougher. He's a guy, though, I expect to, to remain still at the top, uh, of this leaderboard, or near the top of the leaderboard.
36:52
So if you're looking for an alive outright, that's where I'd look. If you're looking for just an end of round two leader, I'll point you at Sepp Straka. I think you get a f- a good number on him.
37:01
He's one back right now of Henley. Henley putted out of his mind yesterday. It's gonna be tough for him to keep up those same great numbers. But Sepp Straka, we've seen it this year, we saw it last year.
37:13
Uh, this guy can go, well, one of the great ball strikers on, on tour right now. So if you're looking for an end of round two leader, that's probably where I'd lean. So Kelly, how into the top five market are you?
37:22
Because as someone who isn't a golf diehard- Mm-hmm...
37:25
I find that that's a, a more, I would say, attainable market to get involved with than trying to pick an outright when you're maybe not as familiar with a guy's iron game or a guy's putting.
37:33
So you mentioned JT right there, seven-to-one to win it outright. You can get him at plus 115 for a top five finish. Is that enough value to you?
37:41
And then another Justin I wanna ask you about, a guy like Justin Rose, the vet up there, 55-to-one for the outright. Obviously it's a long shot, although you specialize in those.
37:49
But you can get him seven-to-one for a top five. Any interest in that market? Yeah, usually, okay, so we talk about the type of, type of tournament first.
37:57
This is a, this is a tournament where you're always gonna get some lower scores at, which creates a bunched leaderboard more often than not, like we saw after the first round. You're, for, couple things.
38:07
A tournament like this, if I'm gonna play a top five, top 10, I'm looking for to play it at a shop where I make sure ties pay in full. You do get some dead heat rules at some shops often.
38:16
That gets very annoying, uh, when you get dead heated to death in these markets. So I like the idea of that. W- I probably would scale it back, though, a little bit.
38:25
I'd rather pay a more expensive price and play a top 10 on those guys, live top 10- Okay... just to create a little bit more wiggle room for you at the top of the leaderboard.
38:34
I, it, the first round's a perfect example, right? You're two shots off the lead, you're a TA right now, right? 'Cause there's that many guys [laughs] that are seven under par. So I think that, that's a good example.
38:44
The one with Justin Rose, I would, i- you know, the, the good and the bad with Justin Rose.
38:49
The form isn't there, but we're still at the start of the season, so you don't really know exactly where guys are at with their game. J- uh, Justin Rose has excellent course history here at Pebble Beach, though.
38:59
So no shocker to me that he's ne- up there near the top of the leaderboard. But if you're gonna bet Rosey, you're betting him because what he's been able to do at this course in the past.
39:08
Seven-to-one, Justin Rose for a top five. We're gonna get into Kelly's favorite NBA plays for a busy Friday night in the association. But folks, in sports betting and in trading, probability is a key to success.
39:20
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39:28
Just go to bubbatrading.com/vsin and get a free e-book on options trading, and use code VSIN500 to save 500 bucks on any purchase. That's bubbatrading.com/vsin. Kelly, let's get to the NBA.
39:44
The Philadelphia 76ers are coming on. Mm-hmm. They had that abysmal start to the season. Now they're hovering right around even money to make the playoffs.
39:52
I believe Mitch and Paulie were saying one of them took a, a flyer and, and played Philly to make the playoffs yesterday. They're hosting Denver.
39:59
The Nuggets not as strong on the road, of course, as they are at home with the altitude and the advantage there. Any intrigue on this game? Philadelphia's catching almost 10 as a home dog.
40:07
Yeah, it, it would be, side total a pass for me. I, this Denver team coming off a, a loss to the New York Knicks. I, I, I think you're gonna see them look pretty good tonight.
40:16
Phil- Philadelphia, the injury li- uh, list is, uh, long once again.
40:20
No, no Paul George tonight, no Caleb Martin, no Andre Drummond, no Joel Embiid, of course, still out, uh, with the foot injury he's dealing with right now, or whatever he, whatever of the multiple, uh- Right...
40:30
multitude of injuries that he's often dealing with.
40:32
The one I did look at in that game, though, uh, [laughs] it was, this is, this is about as boring and square as it gets, but with no Drummond, no Joel Embiid, my first thought was: "Who's rebounding the ball for this team again?"
40:44
A- with Nikola Jokic. So I did look at Nikola Jokic to play over on his rebounding prop. It is up there at 13 and a half, as it should be, though.
40:52
I think if you wanted to play points plus rebounds over on him, I think it's actually a pretty good night to get involved in Jokic props. So that's where I would look. I do have a couple sides that I bet.
41:01
Um, just checking numbers. Uh, Raptors I laid three with last night on the opener. Three and a half's four out there right now. I think anything under five is where I would go up to. To- They're sneakily hot.
41:11
Sneakily hot, you are absolutely right, Joe. Uh, they cover seven of their last eight, uh, and against some quality opponents, too. Since January 14th, six and one, plus 11.6 net rating.
41:21
That is third best in the NBA outside of garbage time minutes. Bulls, LaVine's on the sideline right now, and they're struggling. Two and eight in their last 10, uh, and ATS.
41:30
Since January 14th, that same time period, two and seven with a minus 7.1 net rating outside of garbage time minute. That is 25th in the NBA. Uh, always a little tougher for teams to travel up to, up to Toronto.
41:43
I like the Raptors laying the points tonight at home. And then, uh, one other for you, which I'm getting a little resistance in the market right now I'm kind of surprised by.
41:51
Bucks on the road tonight, uh, against San Antonio in San Antonio. I've been fading the Spurs team recently. My number's just a little off where the market's b- uh, been.
42:00
This is gonna be the fourth time in the past week I'm betting against the Spurs. Uh, I'll lay the three on the road with Milwaukee. Hmm. Uh, they've had a tough, the, it's been a tough road trip.
42:10
Uh, they've beaten up on some bottom, uh, bottom-feeder teams. They did just lose to the Blazers. But they get two days off.
42:16
For a team that is one of the older teams in the NBA, a couple days off is huge coming into a matchup like this. They are 10 and seven in their last 17 games, though, uh, plus 6.2 net rating in that time.
42:27
The Spurs are struggling here a bit recently. Five and 10 over their last 15. Uh, bottom third team right now in the NBA.
42:33
And y- oh, the couple times we've seen Giannis and Wemby go up against each other, Giannis gets up for these games. I think he's- Oh, yeah...
42:40
I think he is still one of the top guys in the NBA that wants to remind Wem- Wemba Yama that he's still a young guy in this league, and there's still a couple names ahead of him on that, uh, you know, MVP or best player in the leagues list.
42:52
So expecting a, expecting a big Giannis game tonight. I laid the points with the Bucks.
42:57
If you wanna get a little frisky with the same game parlay, I, you could look, I w- I, I might be looking at a, a, at, I might add a small bet later of a Bu- Bucks alt spread, team total over, and then some Giannis, uh, PRA in there as well.
43:08
Would you go like a Ya... Oh, okay, PRA. Yeah, probably. I was gonna say, would you go Giannis like 30 or more points? I would probably just stick to the PRA, but I like the points over, too.
43:16
Yeah, I, I think, like you said, he gets up for these games and, you know, i- it's a league where guys pick and choose the spots they wanna get up for.
43:23
I think this is a good spot to back the Bucks at a really good number. Toronto, that number's steaming up. They, uh, opened minus two and a half. They're laying four now.
43:31
I don't love that number, but I, what, what did you get, three at open? Yeah, I w- I laid three I love that play. They're covering 70% of their home games this year. Yeah, it's coming back down, too.
43:39
This had gotten out, I think when I first saw this morning, it was up to four and a half. I don't think it hit five anywhere. So it has gotten some resistance. Anything, anything other under five would be a play for me.
43:48
Clippers, 13 points, too many to lay at Charlotte? You know, you know, it's funny, Joe, as I consider it.
43:53
It's actually, y- it's a light card tonight with only seven games, but a lot of interesting o- ones for me from a betting standpoint. I, it would be lay it or pass with that team.
44:02
[laughs] We don't see the Clippers often put up massive scores offensively, but this Hornets team is just a mess right now. It would be laying it with the, with the, uh, with the Clippers or pass.
44:11
And the Celtics just 12 and 10 straight up their last 22. I'm intrigued New Orleans catching 11 and a hook at home. Another hour of a numbers game coming up.
44:20
We're gonna break down the college hoops weekend to come with our guy Dalen Cuff. Don't go anywhere. He's Kelly Bedell and I'm Joe Serallo. You're locked into VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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