Search
Login
Sign Up
Jan 8, 2025
A Numbers Game | January 8, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | January 8, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
1×
Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So are those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, visa.com Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Every take that's in, we appreciate it. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside.
0:19
Uh, Aaron Shot still to come this hour. Uh, we might have messed up the times. He's still coming up, uh, in, like, 10 minutes. Maybe. Yeah, yeah. You know, something like that. Uh- Just build the suspense a little bit...
0:28
uh, and, and, uh, Kelly's got some Sony Open preview thoughts on golf. That's right. Since I did tennis, he's like, "I gotta get my golf in." Country clubbing, buddy. Those are the rules.
0:35
K- this is a country club show today. That's right. Uh, we get tweets and beat- We get that open made. I gotta get Rob to pull that back in. Do you ever see the country club in open I b- I, I had made for us? No, sir.
0:45
'Cause of our tennis and golf love. Oh. I thought it would be funny to, uh, have, like, old white people in a club, and call it country clubbing.
0:51
[laughs] Uh, we get tweets and beat-a b- by the way, Jason Weingarten's standing by. We get tweets at Beatie the Book. This is from
0:58
Rules of Soc- Rules for Society, "Remember when MJ won the ESPY for Comeback Player of the Year and Bill Murray had to set everyone straight? This girl was in the hospital, man."
1:07
Oh, that refers to Monica Seles getting stabbed, and MJ won Comeback Player of the Year over her. Yeah. Yeah. Another, another shout-out to Rob for, uh- Yes... doing the research. Thank you, Rob Moreno.
1:18
Uh, to figure out the tweet. Uh, dissecting that one for us. Uh, Brian Morien in, "How do we get Kelly off-track today? We've used Comeback Player of the Year, Alanis Morissette, Power Rangers.
1:26
What are his thoughts on Sub-Zero being ranked over Scorpion in Mortal Kombat?" [laughs] It's true. Uh, and then he also adds, "I feel like ram it in-" He's a good one...
1:33
"was not the best phrase choice following 'Bat's tats' with an A." It's a good point. It's a very good point. Uh, Nash. Good try.
1:39
Last name Nash, "Mad respect to Jim Root and any other guests who still include rotation number." Yes, specifically when it comes to college basketball, 'cause there's a billion games.
1:48
So thank you, Jim Root, for always, for using the, uh, the rotation numbers. Roger Jones @broccawins, "Throw another shrimp on the barbie, Australian Open coming up. Does that mean we can finally hear K.
1:56
Michael Bidlin uncork his Aussie accent?" [laughs] Uh, the answer to that is nar. Absolutely not. Oh, man. Uh, let's see. Nemesis Enforcer, "Players to watch on the men's side, Nischith Basavareddy and Learner Tien.
2:11
Both should make the main draw." Learner Tien, um, I bet on when the Challenger Tour came to Vegas. I went to the Challenger Tour. Oh, I remember that.
2:20
And, uh, made a nice little profit betting it live before the sports books could react to it. This dude's already playing? Di- didn't you and Matt go to that, like, three months ago? Matt, Matt came also.
2:31
Yes, Matt showed up as well. Wow. Yep. I was gonna ask you about, uh, like, Carlos not a little long to you at plus 350? Say again? Alcaraz not a little long to you at plus 350? Um, a little bit maybe. Little bit?
2:44
Little bit. Well, Ben Shelton no chance? He's, he not getting any better on these hard courts? Uh, Drew loves Ben Shelton here. Ooh, okay. Drew loves Ben Shelton. Under the wire.
2:52
Ben Shelton, who, uh, lost to- I was thinking as a winner... to, to our guy, Jakub Menšík, who we made a fortune on last year, last night.
2:58
Uh, and Jamie Leyva, "Emphasizing tats to Kelly reminds me of the bulging disc segment on the four-letter network. Have a fantastic day, gentlemen."
3:04
[laughs] Um, it's not often we get serious with stuff here on the show, but, uh, this gentleman lives in the Valley, I believe. He will correct me if I'm wrong on that.
3:13
And obviously, our heart goes out to everybody who lives in the Palisades, uh, on the coast of, um, on the sort of Pacific Coast Highway there, uh, Pacific Palisades where everybody had to evacuate yesterday because of the fires.
3:25
Jason Weingarten, literally we always, we always introduce him by saying, "Under a cloud of smoke." That's not the smoke I meant. Uh, today it's literal.
3:32
[laughs] Um, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, how you doing, Jason? You're okay, right? Pretty good. I'm, I'm in Glendale. Um, I'm a, I'm a ways away from the fire.
3:41
It's, it's a little too close for comfort, but, uh, I think, I think we're gonna be all right. Like, if it, if it gets to me, there's gonna be some, some real problems. If it gets to you, everybody's in, in trouble.
3:50
Yeah. Yeah. Um, weren't, weren't you at one point, though, weren't you like, "I don't know if I'm gonna have to evacuate"? Wasn't there a touch-and-go moment there?
3:58
No, I mean, not so much like, "Are we gonna have to evacuate?" It's just when we, I got up early this morning at, like, 5:00.
4:03
You could smell the smoke coming through, you know, the windows at this point, and so we had to get the, the air filters going, and just make sure we know where the fire is. And you never wanna see another one pop up.
4:14
I mean, these things move fast. Um- So quick. Yeah, and there, there's a lot of brush all, all on the hills everywhere, so it's, it's a, it's a problem.
4:24
It's gonna be a problem for a couple days, probably, probably for a while longer than that.
4:28
And to our, and to our piddly human brains it, like, you know, you have the Pacific Ocean on one side, so you, you see, we can't really fathom how it happens, but yet it does. Um- It's wild...
4:36
especially in a spot like that, which is- Well, it's actually a fun fact. People are like, "How does this happen?" Malibu's the wildfire capital of North America- Yeah... and probably the world.
4:46
The, these, these fires, over 1,000 acre fires happen on average every two and a half years in, in Malibu and in the hills.
4:53
So, um, everyone's like, "How does this thing that happens every two and a half years keep happening?" You know, it's been happening since the dawn of recorded history.
5:01
Even the Indians were, you know, writing about this, or the, the first, uh, accounts of the, the Spaniards were talking about the Indians burning the chaparral in the hills.
5:09
So this isn't a new thing, but it's, uh, it's a dangerous thing. Yeah, it happens in Northern California too.
5:14
There are, there are days where you wake up in San Francisco, you look up and you're like, "The sky does not appear right," and then you find out why.
5:20
It's, it's a really, it's a, your heart goes out to those folks 'cause people, like, the stories are just awful and, you know, what possessions can you grab before you leave your house, that kind of thing. Um, okay.
5:32
Well, glad you're okay. Um, where do we stand now for you right now on, first of all, you were betting basketball yesterday. Let's start with that. We don't know you as an NBA bettor. What are you betting in the NBA?
5:43
You know, I, I actually think fa- it was funny last night. I think I had probably my worst day of, of the new year for sure. Um, worst day of, in recent memory.
5:54
I think I lost every bet I made on basketball, both NBA and college yesterday, up until the last bet I made that won, and... kinda almost evened everything out for the day.
6:05
Uh, but yeah, I was, I follow, you know, a little bit of NBA. I just, I've been recently following the, uh, the Heat on their, their West Coast trip. They have this big, uh, West Coast trip. They got blown out.
6:17
Sacramento, they were playing, uh, Warriors last night.
6:19
I thought it would be a good spot for the Warriors, and Heat basically went wire to wire against them, and, uh, they waved the red flag in the fourth quarter, the Warriors did.
6:27
So, um, I, I pay attention to some stuff like that, some travel stuff. But honestly, there's, there's an old chart I made that's been on Twitter of the quality of life versus how much you bet on the NBA, and- [laughs]...
6:39
the last few days have been a, a reminder that the more attention I pay to the NBA, the, the more my quality of life goes down significantly. You know? It is inver- It's fair. Yeah... inversely proportional.
6:50
That's right. It's, it's fair. I have pretty low quality of life. Yeah. [laughs] I don't know how y'all do it with the NBA nightly.
6:55
Um, okay, so let's talk about, are you betting, like, a, either of the college football semifinals games? Yeah, I bet a little bit on Notre Dame.
7:05
Um, did- didn't bet on the other one, but I do think, uh, after seeing, uh, Ohio State in person, that they're probably gonna be the national championship. I was super impressed with Jeremiah Smith.
7:16
I'd probably draft him right now if I could. Uh, but I, I, I'm, I'm mor- more focused on Notre Dame, and I'm more focused on the NFL this weekend.
7:26
Uh, I know we talked a little bit about it yesterday, but the Eagles, I'm, I'm very interested on this Eagles game, and I'm waiting all day on this news, because it's now Wednesday morning on the East Coast.
7:38
It's past 11:00, and, uh, Jalen Hurts still has not been cleared from the concussion protocol. Dude.
7:44
It's Wednesday afternoon, and I just wanna point out that, uh, yesterday when I was, you know, reading the, the quotes from Sirianni's last, uh, press conference, he wouldn't say who the quarterback, starting quarterback would be if Hurts wasn't, wasn't 100%, or if Hurts isn't gonna start.
7:59
And if Hurts was gonna start, then you wouldn't really keep quiet about who the backup is. You, you wouldn't care.
8:05
Um, so I'm just kinda reading between the lines here, and I assume, you know, there, there's a possibility that he's cleared at some point later today, and we see a tweet, uh, you know, "Jalen Hurts is a full go."
8:14
But just sort of a matter of fact that athletes don't perform well after concussions, and Hurts has been out over two weeks with a concussion, so whatever the, the hit he did take was a, uh, you know, enough to keep him out of a football game for, for two weeks, and now you're expecting him to come back, be 100% for a playoff game?
8:33
Um, I'm, I'm on Green Bay. I, I don't think it's reasonable at this point to expect Jalen Hurts to be, you know, at, at top physical level after a concussion, you know?
8:43
And again, that could all change today, but, uh, as of now, I'm, I, I'm not buying it. Well, I brought it up on Monday.
8:49
I'm glad you bring it up again, 'cause on Monday on Guessing Lines, what I did say is, you know, we're not being thorough if we're not sort of just bringing up the fact that he hasn't been cleared yet, right? Mm.
8:59
And so everybody sort of believes it's fait accompli that he will play, and I hope for his sake that he's able to.
9:06
Um, and then we had Stefania Bell in our timeline saying, "Well, he gets multiple chances to, to, you know, advance through the protocol." She didn't seem worried.
9:13
The Eagles', uh, Twitter had a, uh, image about, oh, the playoffs begin, and they had Jalen Hurts front and center on that, too. So no one appears to be worried.
9:20
But I just have to say, it is a concussion, and so we don't know. In the same way that other injuries have timelines, you just don't know about concussions. And, and to your point, and then if he does play,
9:33
what does that really mean? And so we shouldn't gloss over that, and I think it's a good point that you bring it up. A c- yeah- It-... a couple things just to add on, Quaint.
9:40
I mean, it's ba- basically, he's gotta practice today, so you're right, Jason. Uh, like, today's the big day. If he, he doesn't show up at practice, then there's major concern.
9:47
I think the one reason, one of the reasons we saw yesterday or late yesterday is them releasing Ian Book, who they had signed to be kind of the emergency quarterback. Mm.
9:54
So that's usually kind of a signal that a guy's gonna get back. But, uh, like you guys are talking about- Yes and no...
9:59
if he doesn't show up at practice- At what point was Ian Book ever gonna enter a playoff game that it's gonna matter? Like, if Ian Book's entering this game, then, then the, it's over, you know?
10:09
It doesn't matter if he's on the roster or not. It's, it- Well, let, let me ask you this. If Hurts couldn't go, just hypothetically- Mm...
10:14
let's just play along with this, would you rather, if you're an Eagles backer, would you rather have Tanner McKee in there or Kenny Pickett at this point? I'm not sure that's a question- I think it'd probably be McKee...
10:23
Yeah, I'm not sure that's a clear answer. But if you rather not have either, it's, you know, it's, it's a bad spot to be in if, if you're gonna have him. But it's one of the things, it's very hard.
10:31
You know, we, we, we, we can't really ever put ourselves in the, the position of a professional athlete, 'cause we're not professional athletes and can't really, you know, put, like, contextualize what they go through.
10:41
But if you've ever had a concussion, and you know what recovering from a concussion is like, then you just kind of d- say, like, "Well, this guy hasn't practiced in two weeks.
10:48
Like, you know, does he even remember where he parked his car? Okay. Like, let's see what's, uh, let's see how healthy he's gonna be by Sunday." I don't know. I'm just...
10:57
I, I, I, I can speak to experience from hitting my head. I can't speak to experience from being a professional athlete, but, um- Jason's still recovering... yeah, I- He's still recovering right now.
11:07
I believe, yeah, no, seriously. It, it, it takes a while to recover from that stuff. Yeah. It's, it's not fun. I can't imagine what professional athletes go through to try to play through a concussion.
11:15
It always, it's one of those things I think about, but- It can- I'm, I'm not, not, it's not sold on the Eagles this weekend. Can't mess with the brain, man. That's the one thing.
11:23
You just, it's just, it's a, it's a medical category unto itself. Uh, Jason, appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. Good luck with all the bets. Thank you. I'll see you guys later this week.
11:35
Jason Weingarten, everybody, @Spreadapedia. Glad he's out of harm's way as well, uh, there in Southern California. Aaron Schatz on the other side, the creator of DVOA at FTN Sports, he's next.
11:47
It's a Numbers Game at VSAN, the eSports betting network. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Big news this week here at VSiN, in case you missed it, we are returning to Sirius XM.
12:05
Let's go. Yeah. Starting January 17th, that is a week from this Friday, VSiN's 24/7 programming will be available on Sirius XM channel 158 and the Sirius XM app.
12:15
And in addition to the new channel, VSiN will produce a new show for Sirius XM called VSiN Live on Mad Dog Sports Radio, hosted by Patrick Maher and Dustin Swedelson every weeknight from 7:00 to 10:00 Eastern.
12:26
That has already begun, and that is on Sirius channel 82. Don't forget, coming January 17th, VSiN channel 158 on Sirius XM. Our long-awaited return to Sirius XM. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
12:40
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, this gentleman is kind enough to, uh, appear on this program quarterly during the NFL season, and make a mega pod appearance as well annually. Uh, he is the creator of DVOA.
12:52
And for those, again, who don't know what that is, it breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation, in order to determine value over average.
13:01
Uh, he founded Football Outsiders. He now works at FTN Sports. It is the great Aaron Schatz, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Aaron, good morning, sir.
13:11
Good morning, and it is good to be with you again. Always a pleasure to see you. Let us begin. We'll get to the awards in the second segment, but let's talk about year-long DVOA.
13:20
We do this, uh, routine every year because I'm always interested in the historical anomalies. Uh, first of all, let's just say who ended up one through five DVOA? Let's start there. Uh, number one, Baltimore;
13:33
number two, Detroit; number three, Green Bay; number four, Buffalo; and number five, Philadelphia. Although, again, this includes week 18, even for teams that sat starters.
13:45
So part of the reason why Green Bay ends up third is that Buffalo sat their starters in week 18. And you have to kind of know that. And I would imagine that's part of the reason why the Broncos end up six too, right?
13:54
Oh, hell yeah. [laughs] Yeah. That's probably a biggie. Oh, yeah. And, and did you, did I not read the, the Broncos' week 18 game against the Chiefs ends up being one of the greatest DVOA games of all time?
14:09
It is third because of the opponent adjustments for playing the Chiefs, which are not... They didn't really play the Chiefs.
14:17
So it's, um, it's always going to be there now on this list of greatest games, this game that's a total asterisk, weird BS nonsense. They destroyed the Chiefs. It was the best game.
14:31
Even without opponent adjustments, it was the best game any team has played this year. [laughs] Wow. And as you can see by percentages of DVOA there- [laughs]...
14:39
it's, it's one, two, three, four, five are not sort of evenly spaced. It looks like it's Ravens, Lions, and then the drop-off to the rest kind of thing. Yeah. And like, again, if you take out,
14:51
uh, week 18, the Chiefs would really be, like, sixth. Gotcha. And the Broncos would be more, like, 10th or 11th. Makes sense. So you do have to have to consider that in your head.
15:00
Uh, the article that I write on FTN Fantasy, I ran a list of weighted DVOA, which is DVOA that gives more weight to recent games, with week 18 removed, and that gives you a better idea of how good these teams are going into the playoffs.
15:16
All right. Check that out at FTN Fantasy. By the way, where can everybody get your stuff, Aaron? We should probably start with that.
15:21
FTNFantasy.com, where our stats hub is free with tons of information through Wild Card weekend, and people should check that out.
15:29
And I'm on Twitter @ASchatzNFL and on BlueSky @ASchatz.social.bsky, or however BlueSky addresses are done. A-S- [laughs] C-H-A-T-Z. They made the move to BlueSky.
15:41
Uh, Schatz, by the way, S-C-H-A-T-Z for those, uh, scoring at home. All right. Last year, uh, both the 2023 Ravens and the 2023 Niners were among your two, uh, were among your top 10 teams of all time.
15:56
You go back all the way- Yeah... to 1979. How about this year's Ravens? They are up, again, up there. They are the seventh-best team in DVOA of all time.
16:05
And I know it sounds crazy, and some of that is, uh, i- it is the penalties, right? 'Cause I don't consider all penalties, and they had a lot of penalties this year.
16:15
But it's not like that's something that ties the Ravens teams together. Last year's Ravens did not have a high number of penalties. So trying to figure out why my system likes the Ravens so much, it's pretty easy.
16:28
They have big dominating wins over other good teams. They beat Buffalo by something like 35 to 10. They beat Houston by 31 to 2. They clobbered Pittsburgh. Last year, they whipped Detroit.
16:40
Last year, they whipped San Francisco. This team, they play these weird close games against bad opponents, and then they go against good opponents and they destroy them.
16:50
[laughs] And destroying other good teams is usually the best indicator of a championship team. And that was the case with them last year, too. They just destroyed all the good teams they played.
17:01
Um, so they're number seven in DVO hi- DVOA history.
17:04
And just for those scoring at home again, uh, 2007 Patriots, the one that went undefeated but lost to the Giants then in the Super Bowl; the 1991 Washington Redskins, uh- Yes...
17:15
who gave up a grand total of seven sacks all season long on their way to a Super Bowl victory; and the '85 Bears, the famous '85 Bears. Those are one, two, and three.
17:23
So that's the kind of company the Ravens of this year end up seventh, uh, with those three being the top three. Was it the... And I assume that means that the Ravens offense was historical as well.
17:32
The Ravens offense was, uh, yeah, something like the fourth-best all time, and that includes a 1982 San Diego team that only played nine games.
17:41
So over full seasons, they're only behind the Patriots of 2010 and 2007 in offense. Their offense was phenomenal. They were third all time in yards per play behind just the Rams of 2000 and the Rams of 1954.
17:56
Now before Lions fans' heads explode, 'cause they finished two, they did something historically awesome this year as well per your metric.
18:04
Yes, the Lions are only the seventh team since 1978 to rank in the top five of all three phases of the game. They were third on offense, fifth on defense, and first on special teams.
18:20
And of the other six teams that did this, four of them won the Super Bowl, but the two that didn't were recent: the 2022 Bills and the 2023 Ravens. '91 Skins had to have been in that category, top five in all three. I
18:34
think they are, think they are. I think it's the '85 Bears, the '91 Skins, the '96 Packers, and the '97 Broncos. Okay. So I'll just put my...
18:47
I'll, I'll try to anticipate what a listener would, would wonder about at this moment. So all this is great.
18:52
What is the correlation between teams finishing first in DVOA in the regular season and ending up as the Super Bowl winner? Shockingly not high.
19:04
Did it used- The last number one team to win the whole thing was Seattle in 2013. Wow.
19:10
We have a long history over the last decade of teams ranked three through five winning the whole thing, as opposed to from 1988 to 1999 when the Super Bowl champion was first or second in DVOA every year.
19:27
It's a little weird. Oh, wow. Because the whole point of this... And d- by the way, if you look at other advanced metrics, you get the same result.
19:35
The fact is that we've gone through a long stretch now of very good teams winning it all, but the best team not necessarily winning it all in most years.
19:47
Is that because of the s- the advent of the salary cap, would you say? I don't know. It's interesting because, um, the top teams in DVOA won the Super Bowl much more often pre-salary cap, but they had lower ratings.
20:03
So there was actually, like, more parity during the regular season during the salary cap era, and then less parity during- Hmm... playoffs. Interesting. And then it didn't...
20:15
When the salary cap came in in, like, '94, the success of the top teams in DVOA did not go away for a few years. For '96, '97, '98, DVOA still does a really good job of predicting who's gonna win the Super Bowl.
20:28
But for the last few years, it's mostly been a team that ranks somewhere from three to five. It's, it's interesting. Obviously, like, my goal is to have this be as predictive as possible.
20:39
I want the number one team to be the team that's gonna win it all. But it's, it's remarkable how often that it's, it's not like it's a bad team.
20:48
Like, from 2007 to 2012, you had teams like the 2007 Giants and the 2012 Ravens that were, like, 12th. So it's always, like, a top five team, but not the number one team.
21:00
And that leads me to the Chiefs, which of course overcame, you know, the two top tenners, the Niners and the Ravens last year in DVOA. The Chiefs, you know, I, I, I give out this stat, and I'm, I'm not the only one.
21:11
There are only three teams in the league this year that didn't score more than 30 points in a game. Um, the Chiefs were one of them, right?
21:18
The, I think the Patriots and the Raiders off, off the top of my head were the other two. Um, so they're...
21:23
And, and, and if you go to Pythagorean theorem, the old Bill James baseball thing where runs scored, runs prevented, this is what your record ought to be, they're the biggest underachiever of all time in that, aren't they?
21:33
Overachiever. Biggest overachiever of all time. Biggest overachiever. Pardon me. Yes. Passing the Vikings from two years ago. Yeah. Biggest overachiever.
21:39
D- d- and so DVOA-wise, are they also the biggest overachiever or one of them? Uh, yeah, I mean, there, it's not like there are 15 and 2 teams that are eighth- Yeah. [laughs]... very often. I was gonna say. Um, okay.
21:51
And then the biggest underachievers. Were there, were there big underachievers this year?
21:55
San Francisco and Arizona were above average teams by DVOA with losing records, and if I was gonna look at teams that would take a leap next year, I would look at Arizona and San Francisco. Arizona and San Francisco.
22:07
San Francisco makes sense 'cause of s- injuries, I guess. But they do have salary- Yeah... cap, uh, issues to deal with as well. Um, okay. And then biggest movers up, Denver, Minnesota, Washington, Arizona.
22:18
Biggest movers down, San Francisco, Miami, Dallas, Jacksonville, Cleveland.
22:23
And one note about Cleveland that you put out, if you remove the games started by Jameis Winston, the Browns would have had, had the worst rated offense in [chuckles] DVOA history. I love that line.
22:34
Yeah, Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson for, for- [laughs] That's how good Jameis is. All right. [laughs] Let's go with that. How poor Jameis is. We'll come back.
22:42
Aaron's super wild card thoughts and of course his awards thoughts. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
Ready to try something different? Sign up to start playing the ponies on First Bet. First Bet is US-based and offers wagering on hundreds of races every day from across the country and around the world.
23:02
Sign up at firstbet.com. That's the number one, s-t, bet.com. Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200. Head to firstbet.com today.
23:13
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bilin, and Aaron Schatz, @ASchatzNFL, the creator of DVOA and one of the 50 AP voters for awards in the National Football League, kind enough to join us for our second segment.
23:24
His annual post-regular season, pre-playoffs appearance from his, uh, spot there in Worcester. Worcester, Mass. Always appreciated, Aaron.
23:33
Um, last things before we get to, uh, to some awards thoughts, um, regarding DVOA. Well, first of all, let's go to your predictions from before the season. How many of the 14 playoff teams did you get right?
23:44
Oh, I can't re- oh, I haven't checked yet- Oh, okay... like, to have an exact number. I will say my pre-season predictions this year were not as good as they usually are. I- Right?
23:52
A couple of the teams that I was very high on, I thought the Patriots' defense would still be very good. It was obviously collapsed. I thought the Saints were gonna win that division, uh, by being average.
24:04
Then they got completely destroyed by injuries. Yeah. So that was the Saints. I, I was right about Atlanta missing the playoffs.
24:11
I was right about Chicago Not being as good as people expected, but that was because I said, "One of the rookie quarterbacks is gonna be awesome, and we don't know which one." And it turned out it was not Caleb Williams.
24:23
It turned out it was not Caleb Williams, that's right. Um, through two or three weeks you looked kind of genius with New England and New Orleans, and then things happened. Yeah. Yeah. Especially New Orleans. Yeah.
24:32
But yeah, definitely. Okay, super wild card weekend. Is there a spread based on your numbers that you're like, "Oh, that doesn't look right"? A little bit less based on my numbers, a little bit more feel.
24:44
Uh, but somewhat based... I mean, based on my numbers the spread is off, but not, it's not the one that's most off. I like the Commanders against the Buccaneers. Let's go.
24:52
I have the Buccaneers lower than the Commanders in DVOA. Um, uh, the Buccaneers definitely had trouble against the Saints in the final week of the season.
25:02
Um, I like the idea of Commanders plus three, or if you can get it somewhere, Commanders plus three and a half.
25:09
Uh, my numbers really like Ravens minus nine and a half, but it just feels like the Steelers and Ravens play them, play closer than that a lot of the time. So I, I, I think I'd be reticent to do that one. Okay.
25:21
Let's, uh, let's talk awards now. With the understanding that you are, uh, under the directive of you can't, you can't say what you're, what you're voting for. We get that.
25:32
Uh, we don't want you to lose your, your ballot, uh, in coming years, so we understand that. I just wanna ask you generalities. One, let's start with the most controversial, which is Comeback Player of the Year.
25:42
My, uh, dear friend Kelly Bidlin over here is very angry, uh, because you, you were the first one. You came on the show before the Super Bowl. I don't know if you remember this, when we were at DraftKings. Yes.
25:51
We were there, and you said, "Hey, look, they're gonna change the language on this," and they did.
25:55
Um, and now we're learning that the AP is still accepting ballots that don't adhere, that don't comply with that language. How do you feel about that?
26:04
I don't wanna be the Pied Piper of the Comeback Player of the Year award. [laughs] Which I feel like I've sort of developed this reputation as.
26:11
What I will say is they gave us guidelines of how to vote for this award, and I'm going to follow those guidelines. Atta boy. And I would expect the other 49 voters to follow these guidelines.
26:25
And the other thing I will say is they would've made it easier on us if they had introduced an improved player, most improved player award the same year they made these changes.
26:36
Do you think- In other words, if instead of changing the guidelines, what they had done is essentially split the award in two- Right... it would be, uh, easier for... We wouldn't have this much controversy.
26:50
Aaron, do you believe that change is coming? Yes. You do?
26:54
As s- Yeah, we've ta- I've talked about it with a couple of guys from the AP, and there's definitely some thought about the idea of doing a most improved player year, of the year award similar to the NBA.
27:04
W- would you prefer to add that, uh, yourself, Aaron, or just get rid of this one? [laughs] 'Cause I'm, I'm kinda split. You either gotta add or just get rid of Comeback.
27:13
I mean, this is an award that's been around for years and years and years. You, you wanna still have it, otherwise what would Chad Pennington ever win?
27:19
[laughs] And the Lord knows we want Chad Pennington to win something in life. That's right. That's right. Okay. Interpretation, Aaron will not be voting for Sam Darnold. That's my interpretation.
27:29
He doesn't have to say anything. Yeah, yeah. But that's what it sounds like. He's gonna adhere to the guidelines. Okay. And others should, too. [laughs] And others, and he says, and he hopes that the others do.
27:36
I- [laughs] Say again, Aaron? I'm sorry. I'm not saying that they should. I'm saying I expect them that, that, that- Oh... they will. Okay. All right. He expects them. He'll be disappointed if they don't- Hmm...
27:46
kind of thing. So will I. Some story worries in his mouth. Okay. Um, let's start with the easiest one then after that, which is Offensive Rookie of the Year. We're pretty confident we know who's winning that, right?
27:59
I don't think it's as easy as you think it is. Oh, I said that the other day. I said, "It's probably not as easy as I thought it is." So- No, I mean, I think there's two, there's two main candidates, and it ain't Bo Nix.
28:11
Brock Bowers. It's Brock Bowers. Yeah. Interesting. And, um, I won't tell you who I voted for, but I think the main two candidates are Jayden Daniels and Brock Bowers. Okay. Wow. Wow.
28:25
I can't wait to see where that finishes. Wow. I mean, there's five amazing rookie years out there. Well, I, listen- There's more than five amazing rookie years.
28:32
There is, uh, not only Bowers and Daniels and Bo Nix, but also Joe Alt and Zach Frazier, offensive linemen, and then the receivers, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, and Ladd McConkey.
28:44
There are a lot of really good rookie years on offense. MVP, Allen versus Lamar. Another award where other people have a, you know, Saquon has a, has a case. Joe Burrow has a case.
28:59
There are not enough awards to go around this year, right? There just aren't.
29:02
And then so it's MVP and then there's Offensive Player of the Year, and you have stated on this show before, so this is not breaking news, that you believe, from your analytical standpoint, that MVP m- is, is going to be a quarterback award because you just can't bring yourself to imagine...
29:17
Or it would have to be something so ridiculously outlying that we can't even conceive of it for MVP, taken literally, to not be a quarterback.
29:24
And so therefore, you use Offensive Player of the Year oftentimes for other positions. Is that accurate? Yes. What I don't believe in is the idea that Offensive Player of the Year is the second-best quarterback. Gotcha.
29:38
Right? Like, if you are the Offensive Player of the Year and you are a quarterback, then you are the MVP. Like, that's how that...
29:45
Either you use it as a non-quarterback award, or you give it to the same guy you give MVP to. But the idea that that's the special second-best quarterback award doesn't make any sense to me.
29:56
Okay, you'll forgive my parenthetical asides here. That feels a little Saquon-y then from you on Offensive Player of the Year. Yeah, do, do you know what I'm thinking?
30:02
I had a really hard time with Offensive Player of the Year. There are a number of good candidates. Wow. You had a hard time.
30:08
Okay, so MVP, getting back to that, and I'm not asking you to tell us who, but give us your, [laughs] your, your, uh, thumbnail on how you might evaluate between these two awesome candidates. Last year-
30:23
Everybody thought that the storyline was that it was Lamar Jackson, and yet all the advanced metrics said it should be Josh Allen. This year, the advanced metrics do not all agree with each other. Got it.
30:38
And the storyline is not as much of a train as it, runaway train as it was a few weeks ago either, right? Yeah.
30:45
I think Lamar Jackson has caught up with Josh Allen in the storyline, and I think in the advanced metrics, they're much closer to each other than Jackson was to Allen last year. So it's a real toss-up.
30:55
I assume you think this will be the tightest of all the awards, MVP? Just guessing. Uh, no, Coach of the Year, because no one knows- Oh, true. Yes...
31:04
no one knows who to p- there's, like, 12 guys who, who honestly have good cases. Here, so I'll ask it this way.
31:09
How many, how many votes do you think the winner of Coach of the Year will end up because it's, will end up with because it's so splintered? 25. That much? Okay. Maybe.
31:22
Uh, but still, you, the number, y- you could get 25 and then get a few third place votes and lose to a guy who gets more second place votes. I don't know. How many different Coach of the Year candidates- Yeah...
31:32
are you choosing from? Like a dozen. [laughs] Really? That many? Really? Wow. Uh, the three AFC West guys, three NFC North guys, uh, Tomlin, uh, John Harbaugh, uh,
31:50
who else out there? McVay. Quinn. Quinn, yeah. Quinn. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'm, you know, it, a lot. I, I missed a couple, I'm sure. Um- Sirianni, I guess...
32:02
defense- I mean, there's just a lot of guys who've done good jobs this year.
32:05
And both of the defensive ones, Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year, I mean, those are gonna be really, uh, those might be surprising too to people, I would imagine. Yeah, they're gonna be tight races. Tight races.
32:15
Um, and what makes them interesting is the difficulty sometimes of comparing a cornerback to an edge rusher. And cornerbacks don't typically win this. That's the thing. Especially Defensive, uh, Player of the Year.
32:29
Sha, uh, Stephon Gilmore, I think, was the last person, uh, last cornerback to win it in 2019. That's right.
32:34
Okay, and, uh, just for c- for, uh, uh, administrative clarity here, uh, is it five, did you have to go five deep on all of these? 'Cause it used to be- We went five deep on all the awards this year, yeah.
32:44
We voted for five for all the awards. So you had to come up with, like, number five for Comeback Player of the Year. How ridiculous was that? Uh, yeah, not as ridiculous as you'd think. Okay.
32:54
You, you kinda know who's out there. Where you were like, "Terry McLaurin had that toe last year. That's, I gotta go with him for five." And Gil, it starts, uh, it cuts down when you follow the guidelines, you know?
33:03
That is, that's true. Um, okay, just and as we go here, last thing. Let's go back to Offensive Rookie of the Year for a second. You really think that's gonna be, like, super-duper close, do you? No, no, I honestly don't.
33:15
Okay. But I'll tell you my thought process was that it was close. Okay. In other words, in my mind it's close, but I do think that it's not gonna end up close enough.
33:24
Aaron Schatz, @ASchatzNFL, FTN Sports is where you can find all of his stuff. Aaron, always a pleasure, man. Enjoy the post-season if we don't chat. All right. Thanks, man. My man.
33:36
Aaron Schatz, everybody, from FTN Sports, ftnfantasy.com. We'll come back. Kelly on golf next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Coming up top of the hour after our numbers game, Money Moves with Stormy Boditoni. Stormy back in studio. Was she back yesterday? No. Was she? No. No. JVT was in yesterday.
34:02
Stormy back in studio from her, uh, trip to the Rose Bowl and then to the FCS Championship. She's back with Mike Somich, Somo Bombing, from noon to 2:00, uh, Eastern right here on the network.
34:12
Then Prop Points with John Hanson from 2:00 to 3:00, and then Make It Rain with Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00 Eastern right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. We got tweets at Beating the Book.
34:21
Torch D, "I'm with you, Gil. Sprinkling some bets on the Rams to win the Super Bowl. Sean McVay's about to be the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear," though he said something else in his tweet- [laughs]...
34:31
which I will not read. Uh, Vegas DP, "It's gonna be that time of year. A man's guide to Sin City. Woo-hoo," he says.
34:37
Yes, um, so in between the AFC and NFC Championship week and the Super Bowl week on the Beating the Book podcast, we do a man's guide to Sin City. I think this will be our 14th annual.
34:49
Can you believe I've been doing a podcast for 14 years? That's wild. Yeah. That is wild. Bro. Um, so yes, we're looking forward to that. Melts, Meltzer like seltzer will be on, and maybe Fezzik.
34:58
If Fezzik wants on, we'll get Fezzik on, 'cause Fezzik- Oh, that's a good call... well, he was on last year. 'Cause Fezzik is great at telling you how to chintz the casinos out of stuff.
35:05
[laughs] Uh, that, that, and I know I make fun of this- Yeah... but legitimately, the little, the little breakfast slash what I like to joke about the downtown walking tour by Steve Fezzik was an excellent tour. It was.
35:16
We had fun on that. It w- I learned a lot on that day. [laughs] If this whole gambling thing doesn't work out for Fezzik- [laughs]... maybe that's his next job.
35:22
Um- This gu- by, by the way, uh, I know we had Mike on yesterday.
35:25
Um, after, after, uh, talking a little bit with our friend Matt Brown last night, I have a feeling when they were on the air Sunday night, uh, for Ready, Set, Bet, it was quite the sweat behind the scenes for their Lions tickets that they had.
35:38
Oh. You know, like, we talk all the time about- Oh, yeah... having to do with those live bet shows, and you don't know how much money- Oh... people got going on. That's right.
35:44
And boy, I think there was a lot going on that game that night. And finally, Doug Wedge, "Wait, Aaron Schatz is from Worcester? We gotta meet up for a Coney Island dog or a Woo Sox game or something."
35:53
[laughs] Um, Worcester, by the way, when I went to school in Boston, it's spelled d- this is how, this is how they pronounce it. Worchester, right? It's spelled W- Dubchester? W-O-R-C-E-S-T-E-R.
36:04
So I show up at school in Boston, I'm like, "Worchester?" They're like, "It's Worcester."
36:08
Uh, what's funny is that I, I only know how to spell that, spell and pronounce that specific one, Gil, 'cause it's the most ridiculous example, right? That's the most ridiculous.
36:15
Like, it's the one that everybody always goes to. Worcester, Leechman, Nashua. They thought I had the accent. See, that's where you could ask me about some of those other towns, I would have no idea how to spell them.
36:23
Which brings us to our, uh, G Bank Best Bets of the Day courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. Let's start with mine. I'm on the Rams plus the three on the Vikings.
36:32
I also sprinkled on the money line, which didn't get on the list here, uh, on the Rams against the Vikings as well. I believe it was plus 118, something like that.
36:38
Uh, and then, um, my, uh, futures bets that I made for the Australian Open Brisbane last week, Adelaide this week, Melbourne next week Adelaide? Iga Swiatek plus 550 was the number I got.
36:51
You can get plus 650 at, at, uh, FanDuel. Karolína Muchová, 25 to one, Mirra Andreeva, 25 to one. And then I did sprinkle a little, but with a caveat on the men's side, like do I expect these to get there?
37:04
I don't, but the value is value and so my DNA does not allow me to not bet it to some degree. Alex de Minaur, 50 to one, Grigor Dimitrov at 65 to one. K- Lay, by the lawn, what do you have?
37:15
Am I crazy or is that a little, uh, one or two more, uh, kinda just outright bets than you usually have? It is indeed. Okay. I u- I only, I only do what the numbers say to do. No, no, I got it. Yeah. I was just...
37:26
Y- you're usually, like, one, two, three. Yep. Something like that, right? Yep. Okay. Um, Spurs tonight for me in the NBA catching five and a half against the Milwaukee Bucks. Spurs- I'm usually, I'm usually one.
37:36
That's good. I was gonna say, yeah. Yeah, and I never do more than that. Yeah. And it's called Iga Swiatek. Yeah. It is called that. That's the one. [laughs] It's called that.
37:43
Spurs, uh, catching five and a half against the Bucks, uh, tonight. Spurs have been playing great basketball, uh, recently.
37:49
Bucks on a little bit of a slide, but man, that's gonna be a great game with y- uh, y- all these stars getting up to play Wemby. Wemby and Giannis, uh, going at it tonight, gonna be a heck of a game.
37:59
NFL for me then this weekend, Chargers, Texans under 44. Bills se- laying seven and a half. Bills, Eagles moneyline parlay, and Ravens, Eagles moneyline parlay.
38:07
All right, and then we, uh, had some bets from Jonathan Von Tobel. He's on Penn State against Notre Dame, the college football semis tomorrow night. That's all, that's all we gotta wait.
38:17
What do you do, what do you do when there's no football on TV at night? It's very... You gotta, you gotta talk to your, talk to your girlfriend, I can't believe. What are you gonna do?
38:23
I've had to keep remi- I've had to keep reminding myself though these games start tomorrow. It's, like, a little weird. Yeah. Uh, he's also on the Eagles plus the p- uh, excuse me, laying the points against the Packers.
38:30
He's on the Texans plus the points against the, uh, s- Los Angeles Chargers. I almost said San Diego. Jim Root, uh, three college basketball plays. He's on the Sooners laying three against Texas A&M.
38:41
Good game tonight, uh, in Norman. George Mason laying a dozen against the Richmond Spiders, and then Indiana and USC, he's on the over tonight, 149 and a half. And did Jason Weingarten have a, uh, play or two?
38:53
Yes, he did. Oh, he did. Yep. He is on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. He's oppo, uh, Von Tobel on this one.
38:59
He's on Notre Dame against Penn State tomorrow night, and he is on the Packers plus the points versus the Eagles.
39:05
He was concerned about the, uh, status of Jalen Hurts, not whether or not he would play necessarily, but even if he does play, Jason was saying, "Yeah, I don't know what condition he's gonna be in."
39:15
So he's on the Packers. GBank, the official bank of VSiN with all of our plays daily on this show and every show on the network.
39:20
VSiN recommends every bettor make the GBank Visa signature card part of their betting toolbox. Save up to three to 5% on cash advance fees. Earn cashback rewards on eligible betting transactions now for a limited time.
39:30
You'll get a $250 bonus when you open your account and spend $1,000 in the first 90 days. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank.
39:39
Take advantage of the $250 bonus for a limited time from our friends at GBank, the official bank of VSiN, subject to credit approval, terms, and conditions apply.
39:48
Did get a tweet from Nevadazer, who said, uh, "Five deep on Coach of the Year or five deep on Comeback Player of the Year? Yikes. Buckle up."
39:55
That was a change 'cause they used to do five deep on MVP and then three on every other category. This was a v- I think this was a very underreported change. I agree. 'Cause Drew brought this up yesterday.
40:07
And we were like- I started trying to double-check it and couldn't find anything. But yeah, like, what are you, [laughs] what are you putting fifth for Comeback Player of the Year?
40:13
Like- That's why, that's why I made the Terry McLaurin joke. I'm like, "Well, Terry McLaurin's toe- [laughs]... that kinda hampered him last year.
40:18
And then, you know, he wasn't introduced to Jayden Daniels till week three. I mean, that's a big... You know, I, you can, you could talk yourself into lots of things when you get to four and five. Yeah.
40:26
Would you rather see, would you rather see them just add Most Improved or d- or get rid of Comeback? Um, it's a great question. 'Cause they need to do one or the other. I don't know if I care which one it is.
40:38
I mean, Comeback then becomes very defined. Very defined. Injury, you're coming back from an injury. Yes. But it's the NFL. People are injured every single year.
40:46
It's not like you're ever gonna have a lack of people to choose from. It sounded to me from Aaron that they're just gonna add it. No, I know, but- Yeah. So you won't have to be outraged then by
40:57
misinterpreting the misinterpretations that people have. There, there's, there...
41:02
I, f- I think for people that are thinking like me with Comeback Player of the Year that are voters, I would think are furious about some of this stuff. Yeah. I, I, I agree with JBT though.
41:10
I don't think you're gonna be upset in the end. I, I think it's gonna be Burrow, I have a feeling, for Comeback Player of the Year, and I think Darnold...
41:17
I think that Darnold performance against the Lions, as ridiculous as it is, that one performance could sway people. You know how human beings are, recency bias. I think you'll be okay now.
41:27
See, like, that, that's the f- the, and that, right, that's the funniest part to me. Yeah. 'Cause what I said on Monday, I stand by, it d- it shouldn't matter. Shouldn't matter. Like, it shouldn't even matter.
41:34
Shouldn't matter. And, and by the way, it shouldn't. But it probably will. It should really not matter for Kevin O'Connor, which I don't think it will matter for. O'Connell? Yeah, O'Connell. Yeah, yeah. O'Connell.
41:42
I say O'Connor. Yeah, pardon. Kevin O'Connor I think was in Entourage. Did I get that wrong? Yeah. Ah. Good job. Um, okay. [laughs] Is that that kid's name? [laughs] Kevin O'Connell.
41:49
I was, I knew we were taking, it was gonna trip me. Yeah. Yes. Kevin O'Connell. Okay, there you go. What did I say? Kevin O'Connell? Uh, Kevin O'Connor. Uh, I don't know. Now I'm, now I'm all messed up.
41:57
[laughs] Aidan O'Connell? What did I say? Um, I got to do tennis earlier, it's only fair if, uh, Kelly does some golf. Sony Open, what do you got? Yeah, let's go country clubbing.
42:05
All right, uh, we're switching over to Oahu this week. Uh, but I, remember, uh, these two tournaments that you get in Hawaii, Century and the Sony Open, completely different. If you bet golf, yes, you know that.
42:15
If you haven't bet a ton of golf or you're just starting to bet golf, it is in very po- very important to know that. Completely different courses, completely different fields.
42:23
A bunch of champions playing in that one last week in Maui. At Waialae this week, you're gonna have your first full field event, 144 players set to tee off now. Last week, super wide fairways, huge greens.
42:34
You got tight line, tree line fairways. A lot of this is inland. You're not gonna get as much effect from the ocean.
42:39
Wind is still important 'cause we're still playing on a Hawaiian island, so you still get winds, uh, that will be consistent. Monitor that right now. Wind doesn't look like it's gonna be too bad Thursday, Friday.
42:49
Could get eg- ugly over the weekend though. So if you are handicapping this at home, uh, approach statistics always important in golf, important this week. Off the tee, d- uh, accuracy.
43:00
Accuracy more of a premium this week than distance, uh, with these being a little bit tighter lined fairways. Um, but we got, we got a pretty good field actually at this tournament this year, Gil.
43:09
You don't usually get a lot of the guys, um, come over from the Century, and then also some of the guys just show up for the Sony. But Hideki at the top of the odds board nine to one. Corey Conners 14 to one.
43:20
Jo- jumped down to 20 to one then with Tom Kim. Uh, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley there at 25 to one. Uh, everybody else 28 to one or longer right now at DraftKings.
43:29
I really thought I'd gu- was gonna be on Keegan, Gil, but just the numbers don't point that way for me. So starting with Tom Kim, 20 to one. Little up and down, uh, finish to his season last year.
43:39
Had a lot of strong second place finishes, but also a couple missed cuts. Just four outright bets for me this week. These guys will go low, uh, with some ti- uh, wonky conditions possibly with wind.
43:49
I think I'm just focusing on outrights, not playing any placement markets or anything like that. So Tom Kim, last 36 rounds, six on approach, eighth in driving accuracy. That will be big this week.
43:58
And then I'm ca- taking a few swings on upside here. Couple Florida State boys. Luke Clanton, who's still not a pro yet, so be careful if you're one and done. Do not use him. Luke Clanton and Daniel Berger for me. Hey.
44:11
And then Austin Eckroat also on the outright golf. Leaflet, um, Kevin Connolly, the name of E, uh, his real name in, uh, Entourage. Kevin Connolly. There you go. For those scoring at home.
44:21
Uh, the mega pot will be live on Twitter in a half hour, 35 minutes from now. Uh, money moves next right here. Story, Bonadoni right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
