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Jul 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | July 11, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 11, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:49
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:11
This is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. How you doing? Hey, man. Uh.
0:25
I should, I should silence my cellphone. That's, that's something you do when you're on the radio. What's, what's that? Silence your cellphone. Oh. Yeah. Nah, mine never silence mine. Really? Oh, yeah.
0:34
Full effect at all times. Seriously? Well, I mean, silence means what? A, a buzz or no buzz at all? B- uh, buzz, w- both. Oh, I got- Buzz or no buzz... I got, I got the buzz going. My, my ringer just went off.
0:45
Um, we have to address something here a moment- Take care of that real quick... during that. We have to address something here.
0:48
But I just wanna let everybody know, Steve Fezzik will be on the show here today, but he'll be on in hour number one, so he'll be on momentarily on the show.
0:57
Yeah, I hope this doesn't psychologically, uh, affect me too much- It's a little weird... for hour two. You know what I mean? It's a little weird. Yeah.
1:03
Yeah, we're gonna have Fezzik on this hour, everything that's on his mind, and boy does he ever have a lot on his mind. Uh, that's coming up here on the show. Fezzik Fridays, but early. Then, Falica, NBA awards.
1:14
Chris Falica, all his bets, sports betting landscape, soccer, Major League Baseball, and more. NBA awards, we'll look at some of those.
1:21
And then how about some Luke Swain Vegas Refund, not the NFL draft, not the NBA draft- Nope... not the NHL draft- Nope... but the MLB draft. MLB draft this Sunday. We can't bet this in Nevada, can we?
1:37
I have not seen any book up. Yeah. But- For those of you around the nation who have this available to you at DraftKings and FanDuel, it's gonna be good from Luke.
1:45
Honestly, I don't even know how many books are posting it besides DraftKings, which good on them then- Yeah... for being the only- That's right... ones who are taking bets. And Luke doesn't miss. He doesn't miss.
1:55
I think this is his... We'll have to ask him. This is either his first- Yeah... or second year doing baseball because I, again, I just don't think many s- many books have offered it in the past.
2:04
All right, uh, one last thing before. Am I reading this score right? Does, does Taylor Fritz have three set points? Is this correct?
2:12
[laughs] All right, so my bet in this tennis match here right now, we're gonna get to the thing that Kelly needs to address momentarily. Yeah, th- th- three set. Uh, I have exact
2:22
result Alcaraz three sets to one at plus 229. Vsin.com/picks for all subscribers. That is the play today. I have nothing in the Djokovic-Sinner match, which is to follow. The o- You didn't parlay it with anything?
2:36
No, sorry, I did not. Uh, so I have plus 229 on it being exactly three to one, and I believe Taylor Fritz, did he just win his one set? Did that happen? It did. Yep. Okay, nice. In the blistering heat of, of London.
2:51
Yeah, 'cause when you think about London- It's like 87 degrees, and people are passing out left and right over there... so hot.
2:56
Um, that's huge that Fritz gets this set now because, and the, and the handicap here is that Carlitos, he kind of loses interest. Mm. He, he takes sets off sometimes.
3:06
He's like, "I'll beat these guys," but you know, he loses interest. So, uh, Charlie Alcaraz does what we need him to do and loses a set. Now I just need him to win the next two.
3:14
It is crazy, like the differences in mindset that you have to have from like the women and the men because like you can't... Like, y- like if you're going into a match, like the idea of dropping a set- Oh, no...
3:25
on the women's side- Oh, no, you can't do that... you know what I mean? Like you can't even think about that. Well, and only the Slams are best of five for the men, but you know, he's just that good. So we'll see.
3:31
I don't know. I mean, maybe Taylor Fritz has, uh, other ideas. Maybe he's got other i- ideas.
3:36
Before we, uh, talk anything else though, can we address this, uh, By The Books, which precedes us here on the network, and they, they do a great job. Uh, Captain America, Dave Ross- Mm-hmm...
3:44
and, uh, Jensen Lewis, a former ballplayer at the highest level, they do a great job. And this morning, uh, they had, uh, they, they riffed off the Love Island thing.
3:53
Again, Circa doing the Love Island finale at Stadium Swim on Sunday. And I've talked about this show now for a couple weeks because every time I go back to San Francisco I wa- I watch it with, uh,
4:06
with my, uh, with my little Gracie, who is now a teenager and is obsessed with the show, right? So she's all about it.
4:13
And, uh, and Debra Song, fashion stylist, we all watch it together, but it's, it's hilarious to watch. And the, and sh- Gracie's obsessed with it, but I kind of am by proxy, right?
4:23
And so Dave and Jensen had the clever idea, I guess it was their idea this morning, to come up with what would a VSiN host roster look like on that show.
4:32
Uh, Dave said the, the obvious choice was Cirrilo, AKA Taylor Fritz. Mm-hmm. Right? Joe Cirrilo to be on there. Uh, Patrick Maher on there as well.
4:39
Dave, [laughs] Dave had the greatest idea ever to have Greg Peterson on there, which would be phenomenal television. And then sort of as an afterthought, he threw Kelly Bidlin into the mix.
4:52
Would you like to say something about this, this slander? Well, he didn't say this part on air, so this is where it's gonna get lost in, i- in history, right?
5:01
But, uh, I heard, I overheard during a break, he started, "Well, Joe Cirrilo would be the obvious one." And then down, quote, quote, Gil, "Down the beaten path- [laughs]... we get to people like Kelly Bidlin." Wow.
5:14
So I was a little insulted by that, okay? I get, I get it. I, you know, me, Joe Cirrilo, maybe not on the same level, but man, down the beaten path, Gil?
5:23
[laughs] So it sounds like the, uh, it sounds like the expression of like he, you know, he fell down the ugly tree and hit- Oh... every branch on the way down. That is so mean. It is so mean, so mean.
5:33
[laughs] But I learned a lot of things. Uh, Savannah helped back me up. Yeah. Who would, I would make a good bombshell apparently. That's what they were going for.
5:38
The person- Bom- bombshells are the, bombshells are those that they, they in- They stir it up... they insert into the show after the original cast is already there. Oh, that sounds like a good idea. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
5:46
Yeah. I could start a lot of great gossip, fake news, like, you know, just garbage. But then I also was heard they're limited on drinks. This is not like old reality TV show prowess.
5:55
There's, there's an alcohol limit, limit, yes. Remember like the old Jersey Shore like horror stories where they'd be like, "Oh yeah, they were just like fed alcohol and whatever they wanted" and stuff? One punch, baby.
6:04
How many... They're, they're- One punch... they're apparently capped at, uh, at one and a half glasses of wine. I don't even know what that is. Oh my-My God.
6:11
That is- That's like a nice breakfast on a Sunday Can you ever recover from that? Down the, down the... What is it? Down the what did he say? Down the, down the beaten path or something like that. Down the beaten path.
6:20
Yeah. Kelly, Bill. Wow. Wow, Dave Ross. Geez. Circa Las Vegas, by the way. Love's on the line, champagne's on them. This Sunday, July 13th, for an official season seven finale screening of Love Island USA.
6:30
Big screen, bigger drama, bottomless champagne for the ladies. No limit there.
6:34
I wanna see Steve Fezzik actually on Love Island because he'd be the guy- [laughs] Get- He would not stand for one and a half glasses of wine. He would figure out how to get that extra half glass at least.
6:45
A 61-year-old Fezzik on there? [laughs] On Love Island? Like, I mean, he's got, uh, he's got dating reality show experience. He does.
6:53
Fezzik, as we learned on this show, always a numbers game investigation revealing a lot, was on Love Connection back in the day, and that did not go well. They did not have a second date.
7:02
Steve and I'd be fleeing the island, just packed full of sunscreen and towels and whatever else we could steal. Now I'm offended that you didn't want me as your backup, and instead of Fezzik.
7:11
I just randomly thought about the free, the free stuff we'd be able to steal off the island. How Fezzik- If you're gonna go out early, we're, we're, we're stealing all the stuff we can, okay?
7:19
[laughs] Fezzik would, he would totally try to game the whole thing. I would be, I would be how quickly could they vote me off the, the thing? 'Cause I would be... I would just be rooting for you, and I would... You...
7:29
I'd be the worst, 'cause you would- Is that how the show works? I, well, there's different ways to get voted off. We're not like in competition? We are, but, like, I'm, dude, I'm a, I'm a thousand years old.
7:36
I'm just gonna be rude. Ah, thanks, man. I'm gonna be annoying. I, if I heard you, if I overheard you being like, "Yo, uh," [laughs] this is how I picture you talking to a girl. All the names are silly, too. Yo.
7:45
I'd be like, uh, Delicious over there, and yeah. Yo, uh, Sierra, you wanna utilize the bed? [laughs] I'd be like, "You can use use, Kelly. You don't have to use utilize." [laughs] That'd be me. Thanks, Dad.
7:55
[laughs] That'd be me at Love Island. [laughs] So the, the Scottish narrator would be like, "Meanwhile, Gil just wants to know if we have tennis channel for the hard courts in Cincinnati." [laughs] Cut to a shot of me.
8:06
Yeah, we'd be the worst. We're like, "We're-" [laughs] All of us on the network, are you kidding me? Be like, "Where the TVs at? We're ready to game on."
8:12
Cut to a shot of me while, "Yo, you got tennis channel here at this island?" Like Greg, uh, Greg would be rattling off every, every, uh, player on the LSU depth chart for next year. [laughs] To a girl.
8:22
Ariana, Gil, is there anything you'd like to say now that you've been voted off? Matter of fact, I would, Ariana. There should be no Baseball Hall of Fame without Barry Bonds in it. [laughs] Thanks for playing.
8:30
Appreciate me, having me. Yeah. All right, last night. Oh, that was fun. [laughs] Last night. I, I just, I was offended for you is all I'm saying. I was offended. It was the meanest thing Dave Ross has ever said to me.
8:39
Jensen brought up, apparently brought up that I should be on the show, so thank you, Jensen. I appreciate it. I also found out, do you remember the hit, uh, the hit movie Summer Catch starring Freddie Prinze Jr.
8:48
and, uh, Jessica Biel about the Cape Cod league? Uh, I heard Jensen Lew- You don't remember it at all. No. Yeah, it was like late '90s or something like that.
8:54
Jensen Lewis was talking about his, uh, stint in the Cape Cod league, and, uh, I saw pictures of him back then. Oh. Pretty sure Summer Catch is just a biopic from his days back then. [laughs] It's just that.
9:03
He looks just like Freddie Prinze Jr. Oh, wow. All right. I'll check it out. Um, so hoping Carlitos can close this out in four for a big dog winner now that Taylor Fritz has done his part. Uh, no play on Sinner Djokovic.
9:19
Finals tomorrow, Iga versus Anisimova. Doing anything with the match? Nope. Just letting that future ride. Just letting my future ride. I'm hoping Iga gets home. Uh, nine to one pre-flop on Iga.
9:30
And again, I said it before the tournament, if you listen to the Beating the Book pod, um, I will be insufferable.
9:35
But I'll be on vacation, so you won't have to hear me being uns- insufferable about Iga winning her sixth major, if that happens.
9:41
Anisimova, by the way, more worried about Anisimova actually than I would be about Sabalenka. True story. Just because of, of her, her grass numbers. Um- I, I feel like I've actually heard that from a couple people.
9:53
Well, you've heard it from me. Yeah. Yeah, yesterday. Um, then baseball, then there's the, there's the good and then there's the bad.
10:00
Uh, we have as Mariners, or I have as Mariners 20 to one bet to win most win, w- wins in the most, uh, most wins in the month of July. Yeah. I didn't come along this time, so. Yeah. Um, let me just say this.
10:11
I- if they win last night, you know, maybe there's a shot, 'cause it's early, right? And they'd only be three wins behind. They're up five to nothing against the Yankees in the eighth.
10:21
Brian Wu has a no-hitter going into the eighth. They're up five to nothing. Well, the no-hitter gets broken up. He gives a base hit knock to the first couple batters.
10:30
Eventually in that inning, not with Wu on the hill anymore now that the no-hitter is broken, Giancarlo goes deep for a three-run shot. Five to three after eight.
10:39
And, and as a Mariners guy, you're like, [laughs] "Oh, God, I know how this ends." Sure enough, um, m- absolutely cannot, you know, the, the Mariners closer is Munoz again? I forget. I, I was losing my mind yesterday.
10:52
But, uh, he can't hit the strike zone. This is like the Padres a couple months ago all over again. And of course, the manager does not take out, right, doesn't take out Munoz, 'cause that's their closer.
11:02
You gotta go to the end. So they end up tying the game, the Yankees do, um, on an Austin Wells RBI. Five to five, we go to extra innings. Of course, the Mariners don't score at the top of the 10th.
11:13
And then we go to the bottom of the 10th, right? Two out. Excuse me, one out. Bases juiced because there's walks galore, right? Judge fly ball center field, but not particularly deep. Julio Rodriguez catches it.
11:29
[upbeat music] Perfect throw home. Perfect throw home for the, for the catch him, throw him out double play. Love this. Two steps before Volpe gets in there from third. Two steps. Volpe slides under the tag. Ball game.
11:44
It was an awesome slide. Dude, can I just tell you something? That's it. That bet's over. Wonderful. Steve Fezzik. Fezzik Friday is next.
11:52
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:09
Right now, you can check out Zach Cohen's Wimbledon previews, Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, and Zach also has NBA Summer League best bets as well. Zach working overtime.
12:18
And later today, you can check out UFC Nashville best bets.
12:21
Steve Makinen will have his Toyota Save Mart Uh, 250 simulation and his, uh, that's the Toyota Save Mart 350, pardon me, I don't wanna shortchange him, uh, simulation on that, and has a MLB analysis report soon as well.
12:34
Right now, you can sign up for full VSiN Pro access until the Super Bowl for only $175. Head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Um, what are we on serve here?
12:47
Yeah, on serve here early in set number three between Alcaraz and Fritz. Again, uh, the bet today, Alcaraz correct score, three sets to one at plus 229, vsin.com/picks for VSiN subscribers.
13:00
I just wanna one note before we get to, uh, Fezzik Fridays here.
13:03
So I was just talking about the, uh, ridiculous Mariners loss last night, where they led five to nothing going into the eighth, um, behind a no-hitter from Bryan Wu until that no-hitter was broken up, and the Mariners eventually lose in extras.
13:16
Uh, this is according to, uh, ESPN Research. That was the first time last night in 236 games since 1977, which I guess is as far back as they have tracked this,
13:29
236 games, first time in 236 games since 1977 that a team had come back to win after being no-hit through seven innings and trailing by five or more runs. There you go.
13:43
That's what happened last night to our Mariners, 48 years. My, Kelly and, and, and I, our first reaction was, "Wow, that's happened 236 times, that a team has been up five or more runs behind a no-hitter and lost?"
13:56
Uh, but in all those years, the math sort of makes sense, 'cause if, if there's been e- you know, as Steve pointed out off air, if there's been, let's say 800 or 900 no-hitters through seven that eventually get broken up, it makes sense that roughly a third of them, uh, or, or slightly less than that would result in a loss.
14:12
Speaking of the man, it's time for Fezzik Fridays right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge.
14:22
It's time for Fezzik Fridays. Ah, yes, with the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, later the Westgate Super Contest, Steve Fezzik. How you doing, man?
14:33
I gotta get to the Rio and get my money. I got one day left. Did you see Crack talked about the matching status? Can I apologize to Kelly?
14:41
Because Crack talked about it yesterday, and then Kelly sort of very [laughs] very quietly reminds me after the show, he goes, "Yeah, that was, I, I was talking about that the other day on the air."
14:49
And I didn't relate the two. Mm-hmm. So Kelly was the first one to talk about it, and then, and then Crack drove it home yesterday, yeah.
14:53
So you have till 11:00 PM, and you can get up to $500 if you've got top status of cards. If you got less, you get s- you know, some money. And, you know, I gotta give the Rio a lot of credit.
15:02
So they tweeted, basically they weren't gonna admit that they made it too generous, but they said, "Oh, you know, the response has been tremendous, and it, we're just, we're gonna continue it until 11:00 PM today, and then we're gonna retool it," you know?
15:16
Or, yeah. Yeah. So- And then they'll retool it. Yes. Yes. We worried about that, like, with the March Madness thing at, at Virgin, remember? We're like, "Oh, they won't do this again."
15:25
Was it no juice for the first two days of March Madness, I believe it was? Right. You know- Yeah... and there's a long history.
15:30
You, the b- one of the, I remember 20 years ago, there was a promotion at the Maxim, if you signed up for a, for a player's card, you got $300, all right? And so
15:40
my former associate, um, Goose, was signing up homeless people outside- Goose, Goose... handing them $20.
15:47
They would hand him the, the card, and he just would w- you know, go ahead and, and, and run the $300 through, and he must have signed up, you know, I, I think over 100 people. Hmm. Okay. Um, oh, [laughs] wait a minute.
16:01
Oh, so you and, you and Kelly were texting about this last Sunday? Oh, that, that far ago, yeah. Um, not about the Rio. I was unaware last Sunday. Oh, you were? Yes. Kelly may have been aware, but I was not. Oh.
16:11
Or Kelly texted you about it maybe. That's perhaps, and you didn't respond. Mm-hmm. Okay.
16:15
Um, before we talk about all these other random thoughts that you have, can we, can we give out some Steve Fezzik picks before we do any of that? Sure. Let's do some baseball today. What do you have?
16:24
So I've got three baseball picks. I'm gonna go with the Cardinals. I understand money is pouring in on the Braves. You know, I, I would say if I had one critique, uh, we are a slave to line moves.
16:38
So often they're like, "All the smart money is all over Atlanta," all right? I assure you, there's no smart money betting Atlanta now that they're a slight favorite.
16:47
I mean, maybe they bet Atlanta plus 120, but now they can get the Cards at minus 103, 100%.
16:53
Uh, I like Libator, the pitcher, and I, I think the Braves are absolutely donezo, and we keep waiting for them to make their move, and it's not happening. Giant magic, it's a real thing. Yes.
17:05
It's just w- it's amazing how this team's just been undervalued year after year, and all of a sudden, you know what? It's not impossible that the Giants could get back into this division race.
17:16
So we are on the Giants as a favorite with Webb. And finally, oh, those D-backs. I'm sorry. Oh. They let us down yesterday, first five. We don't trust the bullpen. We're going right back to it. First five,
17:29
D-backs against the Angels. So St. Louis Cardinals against the Braves at a better number than Steve got them at, minus 103 now on the Cardinals hosting the Braves today.
17:38
Also on the Giants full game and on the Arizona Diamondbacks first five. Because of course, any runs that happen against them after that will be of no consequence to your bet. Copyright Gil Alexander.
17:50
So Gil used to give out all these winners, and he'd always write the same mention. He's like- [laughs] "All those runs the Yankees got when they were being no-hit was of no consequence to our Seattle first five."
18:00
[laughs] I love the, those were the, uh, Dr. Barber recaps back in the day. All right, and then you have a g- a college football play for us as well season long? Yes.
18:07
So we are Marshall basically relocated to Southern Miss. So Marshall, their coach left and, and took all their players. Yeah. Maybe there's a couple of them left. So Marshall is a shell of themselves.
18:19
Under five and a half season wins, minus 150 for the Marshall herd to underachieve. Okay, now that we've gotten picks out of the way, we can talk about other things.
18:29
I would like to do a, a good and bad in Vegas real quick here in this segment. Let's talk about the bad first. Uh, visitation numbers are down And there is something that you feel is being underplayed about this. Yeah.
18:40
Now, the number one reason obviously is the gouging. The $38 strawberry margarita at the pool, the $25 bottle water, you know, from the hotel room, and that's the number one factor.
18:53
But I firmly believe there's a long-term implication, the F1 hangover. Every fall we have the F1 race. In 2023, it was an epic disaster. Oh, don't remind me.
19:06
Literally construction going on for four months, and anyone who came to Vegas during the fall of 2023, and to a lesser extent 2024, just has a bad feeling.
19:17
And you know, v- like, uber surcharges through the roof, can't get anywhere.
19:22
And what happened is that it caused so much tax dollars to go towards the infrastructure of building temporary bridges, putting them back down, that none of the traffic problems that we have in our city got addressed.
19:34
The Tropicana, which is y- one of the major, major roads off of I-15, was closed for over a year because the city was so distracted- Ugh... with other things, and no one wants this.
19:46
The people who live on the Strip don't want it. No, we don't. The people who work on the Strip don't want it. No, they don't.
19:52
Someone is getting, is making money off this, the construction companies and the like, um, and maybe the commission. We'll s- I don't know. Is, is this not the la- this is the year three.
20:02
Uh, from my understanding of how F1 10-year contracts work, this is kind of the year that determines if it goes on. Oh, is that right?
20:10
I think it's either a th- I think it goes from three straight to 10, but sometimes they cut it off at three. So I don't know. This is the, this is the fulcrum year on this.
20:18
So the, the bottom line is if y- if you went to Vegas in October or the first half of November the last two years, you're thinking to yourself, "Wow, maybe Hawaii next year after, uh, all the hassles," et cetera.
20:29
No one talks about it, um, because someone's making a whole lot of money, while a lot of other people are getting just inconvenienced to all heck. Yeah. It's, it's, it's terrible.
20:38
Let, let's talk something positive there, uh, though, in Vegas, um, specifically about, uh, one of our favorite casinos. Um, I've, I've, uh, I've blanked. Oh, the South Point. Yes. I, I love the South.
20:50
The South Point has the Benny Binion model. Good gamble. Um, give people, you know, good food deals, and give them free parking, and they will come, and they will frequent your joint. And I can't understand, Gil, why...
21:05
And they, and give them a loss leader, and the, the South Point has the $1.75 hotdog famously, which I think I could eat five and a half of them at least. Hmm. I'll go under. We'll, um, t- hmm.
21:16
We'll have to try that sometime. Yeah. But the, um, why no one copies this.
21:21
You know, it, it works so well, and it worked for years in Vegas with their 99 cent shrimp cocktails and the like, and now they are just gouging at every turn.
21:30
And you walk into a casino mid-Strip, you walk through the c- the, the gambling area, and you got the triple zero roulette, the bad video poker. You can shoot a cannon, you won't hit nothing.
21:40
There's no customers in there. You go in the South Point Tuesday night at 11 o'clock at night, and every $25 blackjack table, good rules, is packed.
21:49
By the way, are we not, because of the, because of the downturn in visitation, are we not, or at least the, let's say even conservatively, the leveling off of visitation if you, if you're one of these Vegas people who, who refuses to ac- accept the downturn term.
22:04
If, i- is this going to turn? Could this turn? Could we all of a sudden start to see three-to-two blackjack in more places now on the Strip?
22:12
Could they make that adjustment now, or is that genie out of the bottle never to be put back in?
22:18
I think the genie's out of the bottle, where what happens is that the, the massive debt that so many of these companies are carrying, that they have to pay each and every month with the interest, they're having meetings every month and saying- Yeah...
22:31
"All right. How can we squeeze a little more blood out of the turnip?" And you see it even in the slot holds, which were like 6%, and then six and a half, seven, seven and a half, eight. They just keep going up, up, up.
22:42
And now the triple zero roulette, roulette double green is a complete and utter sucker's game. Yeah. No, no one sharp would ever play that game. Let's talk some more sports betting stuff on the other side.
22:53
Parlays, Stevie's problem with them. Next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game.
23:06
Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily. AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros. Check 'em out, sharpplays.com.
23:19
It's Gil Alexander. We got tweets @beatingthebook. "Best listeners in the game," this is from, uh, this is...
23:25
Oh, Xavier82 wants us to know that, uh, FanDuel has most wins for the month, adjusted odds up, and I believe DraftKings does this as well. Right now, currently the Blue Jays, uh, plus 198 short shots.
23:40
They are eight and one, as are, by the way, the Boston Red Sox. Red Sox are eight and one, uh, with a couple games fewer, I think, left to play than the Blue Jays. They are nine to one. Mariners nowhere close now.
23:51
I think they're longer than when we, uh, w- than when we started with them. Uh, this is from Temlach. I hope I... Is it Temlach, Tenalach? Uh, oh, Joe Bren says, "Have a wonderful holiday, mate.
24:04
Uh, you have entertained me over the years while I landscape gardens on the east coast of Sydney. Love the dynamic with Kelly. You guys just give a great insight to help formulate an opinion to own a bet.
24:14
Bugger the naysayers." [laughs] I believe I just cursed in a different dialect. Uh, Gamar, Jamar, I hope this is, I'm saying that right.
24:22
Uh, "Hi, I'm Richard, I'm Richard Karn, and you may have heard me talking about the pocket pivot hose. It looks like you could use one after your Mariners July ticket burst into flames last night.
24:32
[laughs] Have a great vacation. Good luck to Iga tomorrow." Thank you very much. Appreciate that. Uh, let's see. This is from... You guys are the greatest. This is from, uh, s- uh, from Martel. "Kelly Casamor-Bidland.
24:44
Don't discount the blade." I believe you mean Kelly Isla-more, Bob Bitland. Don't discount the blade, but yes, a vote for Kelly on Love Island. JoeC714, "But Kelly, you have a great personality." He'd do well.
24:57
Trip Tepper, "Can you imagine Fezzik on Love Island bringing up binomial distribution when trying to predict who will emerge the winner?
25:04
90% of the audience and all the participants [laughs] would be clueless on that concept." Yes, he would. Primetime, "Yo, word.
25:11
In the season of grass, I needed to consolidate the break and took a ride searching for Kelly's infamous black market," yada, yada, yada.
25:18
"Drove two towns over for cheaper gas and found Eaga hater Ben Wilson's family partying at a QuikTrip." Wow, there was a lot in that, uh, in that tweet. This is, uh, this is from Nick on the Love Island thing.
25:29
He says, "Hey guys, the only thing Sorallo has on Kelly is great hair. Kelly, you have something nobody can beat, and that's a personality.
25:36
Wait, come to think of it, I'm looks challenged, and my whole life that was used to describe me, so maybe this isn't a complent- uh, a compliment. LOL." Uh, Del, Mind the Gap Radio, "Patrick doesn't leave the house.
25:46
Dustin, Kelly, G-Unit, and Crack Man would make great TV." So y- the Love Island thing, that's all everybody wants to talk about.
25:52
And Rick Olier, "Are you a fan of early aughts movies with less than a 10% [laughs] rating on, on Rotten Tomatoes? Then, boy, do I have a movie for you. Ha- hashtag," what was that movie called?
26:05
"Hashtag, uh, Summer Catch." [laughs] That's great. Uh, Steve Fezzik joining us once again for Fezzik Fridays. Can we remind people of your seminar that you're doing? Really excited. Yeah, August 1st through 3rd.
26:16
It looks like it's gonna be here in downtown Las Vegas, a night boot camp. This is really something special where... A b- Bet Bash is great for networking, for meeting tons of people.
26:27
This is really for serious betters that wanna raise their game and get to that next level. So if you're, if you're an amateur, you're kinda hacking around with this, this isn't your boot camp.
26:37
This is, this is the seminar for serious people, don't wanna have fun, they wanna win. Okay. Uh, where do people go to find out about the v- the Fezzik Vegas Boot Camp? Go to vegasbettingevent.com. Vegasbettingevent.com.
26:50
It's August 1st through the 3rd. You're not suggesting that, uh, that, uh, Bet Bash isn't for serious betters, but you would like people to know that you have been doing this for a long, long time.
27:00
You are not, uh, you're not trying to steal any shine here. Kevin O'Neill and I have been doing this for, like, years and years.
27:06
You know, one of the, a, a world-class better, Danny in Kentucky, you know, attended one of these 15 years ago, and now he's, like, he's pretty well known as a guy [laughs] who does extremely well.
27:16
Hey, the early bird does expire here this weekend, so definitely go ahead and get signed up. Now, Bet Bash is for very serious betters- Yeah... but it's for very recreational bettors.
27:24
It's for, Bet Bash is basically, you know, a, for everybody. Yes. And your guarantee, your money, your money back guarantee?
27:31
Yeah, if it's not for you, if you show up, um, I'm gonna go ahead and present on bonuses and, and free plays and how best to exploit that the first hour.
27:39
After that, if you feel like, "Hey, maybe this isn't for me," walk away, we'll refund your money. So in other words, what you're saying is if you want to Fezzik Fezzik, you stay there for 59 minutes, and then you bounce.
27:49
There is a $99 processing fee we are gonna, we are gonna apply. Okay. All right. Just to, just to keep, just to keep- Just wanted to make sure [laughs]...
27:55
just to keep 100 people from one of my haters from showing up [laughs] and complaining. Not to give anybody any suggestions. Yes. Uh, good for you, though. Fezzik Vegas Boot Camp, August 1st through the 3rd.
28:05
Um, I would love to attend, by the way. I will absolutely attend that. Kelly was saying he's going, he's going to your seminar and the Backstreet Boys on the same day. Love it.
28:13
And he defies anybody else, uh, to see if anybody else is doing that, that, uh, Kenny Yellow on that day.
28:18
You know, Kelly and I have worked with Blackjack, and he's really, you know, been raising his game, much to the chagrin of some of the lo- lo- local casinos here. Yeah. Yeah.
28:26
I'm sure you're a, oh, I'm sure you're a very pleasant Blackjack coach. I am, oh, I am- Oh, I'm sure you're the greatest. I, I am, you know, the number one thing, like you get a pair of twos against a f- Oh...
28:35
a four, and then you split and you get an eight, and your little finger starts hitting without doubling down. I'm like, I'm, I'm just like Bobby Knight throwing chairs.
28:42
[laughs] I'm sure if Kelly makes one slight error, you're, you're not all over her or anything for that. I, I would let Kelly play in my casino still. [laughs] Maybe not next year, but yeah.
28:52
Uh, okay, let's talk about parlays. We, we often bring this up. New bettors love them.
28:58
Uh, they're, sadly they're doing same-game parlays, and again, I hope everybody knows you're not getting the proper bang for your buck on same-game parlays.
29:04
But parlays in general, um, you always make fun when, when Borchardt comes on. You're like, "He's the, he's the smartest guy in the world," then he, then he throws out a parlay at the end. You're not a parlay fan.
29:14
Explain why. I- correction, I am a parlay fan. Oh. There's tons of times to play parlays, and I'll cover them in my, my seminar.
29:22
Correlated parlays, circumventing limits, looking like a square, getting down more money, but- Those are the three, by the way. Like, right. Yes. Uh, and there's different derivations of that.
29:33
The most extreme or, or simplistic example would be, like, baseball.
29:37
If the home team wins, um, the game oftentimes goes eight and a half innings, so a home dog to an under parlay is a pretty powerful parlay oftentimes to play, um, with an obvious correlation that some books let you play.
29:51
Some books no longer let you play because that... And obviously the visor- a vising favorite to the over, you know, can be good as well.
29:58
The poster child of that would be Houston's playing [laughs] Cleveland, and Houston's, it's one-nothing in the ninth inning, Houston to the over, you know? Mm-hmm.
30:06
Um, when, when all heck breaks loose in the top of the tenth because of the Ghost Man, but, um- Other than those things, though...
30:13
other than those things, the epidemic that is facing us is, and even these, the, the, the, what, the content providers who don't bet for a living, they have picked up on this and, like, you get a favorite, and like, like, Cincinnati's playing Colorado, and they steam from minus 200 to minus 240 or whatever it might close, and they're like, "You know what?
30:30
That number got away, so let's be creative and put them into a money line parlay with something else." And I'm like, "You're still laying minus 240.
30:40
In fact, you're laying more oftentimes because as soon as you put it into parlays, you lose the chance to shop for the very best number.
30:47
Maybe you could play it on ProfitX or one of the betting exchanges and get the Reds minus 225. Nope, I'll just go out and slam it into a bunch of minus 240 parlays." No pro plays that way, you know?
30:58
Uh, caveat, Eli Hu feisty, I'm sorry. Eli Hu plays lots of these, but you know what? He's- I do, I do them in tennis. Yeah. It's the only sport I do them in. It, it, it, you know what?
31:08
If you know what you're doing, fine. Yeah. Okay? If you're a pro bettor, there's, there are exceptions to every exception, but in general, the public should stay far away from this.
31:16
I, but I, I like, for- first of all, let me just say this.
31:18
Even as you're saying this, it occurs to me in my head, like the percentage of people, like I think there's a lot of people listening to you are like, "I, Steve, I get your math. I understand your math.
31:27
I'm still gonna," like, I don't think people can resist the urge sometimes.
31:31
But I, I, I do, I, I mean, one of the things that you say often is, is, about this subject, I always find resonates 'cause it's so simply true, which is you do have to realize that if you are parlaying the, the, the th- the possibility of you getting the best of it on all, on every one of those legs is minimal.
31:49
Getting the best price. Yeah. Getting the best price. Right. So that at a, at a baseline should i- should make people understand why you are against them. E- e- exactly. Yeah.
31:57
And I get it, like famously, so a numbers game crushed it when these NBA teams were tanking because- Yes... they all lost, all right? And so you've got these 17-point favorites, and you know what? I get it.
32:07
You don't wanna bet, you know, b- you lay 900 to win 100, all right? So, and if every one of these has a significant EV, if you put them into parlays, your ROI actually goes up, all right?
32:19
You, you, you do better from a return on investment. So there are exceptions to every rule, but those are really the exceptions. Yeah.
32:25
Um, anything else about, anything else that you wanted to add in on this subject with parlays?
32:30
Like in other words, the, in the same game, I think we need to drive this home point, you know, this, this point home even more, which is you have a new generation of bettors that are not even, that are l- I, I don't even think that they're putting parlays together.
32:43
They are doing, like Kelly and I talked about this thing yesterday, I think it was yesterday or the day before, where it was regular season MVP and Super Bowl champion.
32:51
And I pointed out before we even dove into our opinions that mathematically these are, you know, you're not allowed to parlay them together.
32:59
But here they've created a market where they're giving you much less bang for your buck.
33:02
So I think most new bettors, sadly, are just gravitating towards something like that or same game parlays, which of course sw- has swept the nation.
33:10
And a lot of these content providers are s- are recommending like three big underdogs in a parlay because once, uh, uh, ev- every full moon, they're gonna hit it, and then they say, "Look, I, it, it pays 30 to 1."
33:22
Oh, sure.
33:23
And, you know, the one exception to the rule is if you, if you do have a bonus bet, playing like, uh, parlaying all these big underdogs together is actually mathematically correct, which I won't go into all the details regarding it.
33:33
But for the most part, um, what are you gonna do when those first two underdogs hit?
33:37
And now all of a sudden, you know, you got this $20 free bet, or, or this $20 parlay, and now you got basically $1,000 riding on this big underdog. You never would bet that.
33:47
Steve Fezzik, everybody, uh, kind enough to join us for our third segment. Talk about a contest that he does like in town. That and more next.
33:54
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Uh, Mac tweeted in, he said, "Bad news for you.
34:12
F1 already announced their schedule next year, and Las Vegas is on it." Oh, wonderful. We'll see if that sticks.
34:17
Uh, winnerscircleproxy.com is a place that you should know about because if you need a proxy, you can join the world's biggest football contest with one trip to Vegas any time before the season starts.
34:28
Trusted by thousands of players over the last nine seasons, Winners Circle Proxy Service helped clients win over $9.3 million last two seasons.
34:35
Learn more about using a trusted proxy service for all your contest needs, whether that's over at the West Gate, Circa Millions, Circa, uh, Circa Grandissimo, Circa Survivor, whatever it is, winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin.
34:49
Winnerscircleproxy.com/vsin, check it out. It's Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik, uh, joining us for the, uh, third of three on a special early edition of Fezzik Fridays here on a Friday on a numbers game.
35:00
Um, I just wanted, before we move on to other [laughs] subjects, I just wanted to throw this out there. Uh, Kelly mentioned the other day how annoyed he gets at people sending in parlays, right? Mm-hmm.
35:10
Um, and, and then he, he sort of g- he sort of was, he didn't wanna act like he was that guy, but, you know, to some degree, he gets sent now. A lot of people are sending him parlays. [laughs] So here's one.
35:22
This is a cross sporter. How would Steve Fezzik feel about something like this? So this gentleman, uh, did a, what's this, a s- five-legger cross sports, Alcaraz to win Wimbledon. By the way, Alcaraz up two sets to one.
35:35
Come on, Charlie. Let's get this last one, uh, to win it in four.
35:40
He's got the Astros, in addition to Alcaraz winning Wimbledon, he's got the Astros to win the American League, the Bills to win the AFC, the Cavaliers to win the Eastern Conference in the NBA, and the Golden Knights to win the West in the NHL.
35:55
And here's a guy, and so what is this? Pays 773 to 1. You look at something like this, and you say what?
36:04
Well, I'll give him an A for handicapping because I like actually the direction he's taken for every one of these plays. Well, can I give, can I give my grade? Mm-hmm. I give him a, I give him a B+. Do you know why, why?
36:14
'Cause there's one leg here that I wish he hadn't put in there. The, the Golden Knights? Correct. I agree with that. Like, that's, uh, I, why, why pollute this with hockey, which is so random?
36:24
A- a- and the problem with the pollution here is that you're not getting the best number in each and every one of these. It's hard enough to win. Yeah.
36:31
Especially in the futures market where the house vig is like 20%, but you can really knock it down by shopping.
36:36
But let's say, um, let's say he, he plays so well, all of his teams that their nose bleed for a month, so far over their heads, and all these guys win, okay, all these teams.
36:46
Well, now you got the Golden Knights, and it pays 700 to 1. So now all you're gonna do is be spending all your time, "Well, how do I hedge? How do I monetize- Mm-hmm... all this?" Why bother?
36:56
Why put the Golden Knights in it? N- uh, you've, I mean, how big a yacht do you need to water ski behind on your bet? Also, there's a, there's a potential self-loathing element of this. Hmm.
37:06
What if the Astros end up winning the World Series, the Bills end up winning the Super Bowl, and the Cavs end up winning the NBA finals? Then it's almost like, "Oh, my God, why didn't I do that?" Exactly.
37:16
There's a whole bunch of stuff here. Um, okay, you have, uh, professed your love for a contest over at the Westgate. Yes. What's this? We've been clamoring for it. A college contest.
37:26
By the way, uh, LeRoy's used to have a college contest, and I did tie for first in that, like 20 years ago. Really? But we've been missing, I've been known to enter a lot of contests. No.
37:37
Uh, but I love the Westgate format. $500, the price is right. Up to 10 entries, like multiple entries, and the, I, the lines go up Wednesday at 5:00 PM, and the submission deadline is Friday 5:00 PM.
37:52
Now, as a contest specialist, Gilly- Mm-hmm...
37:56
I love me a contest where I feel like I'm gonna have better information than most of my competitors because as good as all these proxies are, they've got too many entries to put in, so they'll probably have a deadline on Thursday that you have to submit your plays, whereas I'll be playing with perfect information on Friday afternoon.
38:12
Does the, uh, Golden Nugget still do their football pro-college c- hybrid contest? I'm not sure whether they're going- Yeah, no... whether they're still doing it. I don't believe so. Okay.
38:22
I'll, I'll, I'll get back to you on that. Hey, one last thing on the parlays, maybe I missed this, did you mention about people who parlay underdogs? Did you mention that? Y- yes. You did, okay.
38:28
This is a classic example with- Right... with, with, with, it, it, the Kelly criterion just would lo- their, their brain would explode- Okay...
38:34
because they're saying, "Okay, you're optimal if you've got 100,000 in bankroll, your optimal, um, bet on a big dog might be $1,000," um, but now you put it into a parlay, and you start out betting 300, and you're way under-betting [laughs] the first leg, but by the time the Bills win and the Astros win, now you, you're, you're basically over-betting your bet size on that- Yeah...
38:54
third leg by, by 10, 20, 40. So they let, if they let you do it with a free bet, that's one thing. With the free bet, I won't go into all the details- Yeah...
39:01
the free bet is actually optimal to make it the biggest possible underdog. Yes.
39:04
And the reason being, win or lose, they're gonna take your free bet away from you, so you, by parlaying, you get to, y- you get more bang for your buck with that free bet. Okay, another, uh, Fezzikism.
39:14
Uh, by the way, you can follow Steve on Twitter at Fezzik Sports, but I warn you, he's not a very nice person on Twitter. Mm. Um, [laughs] he says, [laughs]
39:24
"Hmm," uh, another Fezzikism is you love, so NFL season obviously coming up, this applies to every season, but the NFL obviously most prominent for those of us, uh, in this little corner of the world, you love season-long unders in props.
39:39
Yeah, bet against human achievement. There you go. All right? There's so many ways to win.
39:44
Like, someone was talking up, um, uh, Scott Seidenberger was talking about, made some great case about Tampa Bay and their offense being extremely proficient, and so some of, one of my clients said, "Oh, I should bet Baker over," and I'm like, "Absolutely not," because there's too much at risk with the injury.
40:00
It's just, I know Baker typically doesn't get injured, but one injury and you're done-zo on these bets.
40:06
So it turns out if you had done nothing but all skill-position players, quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and you bet them under for their season long numbers- Every single one of them...
40:15
every single one of them, you've cashed, in the NFL, over 60%. Now, let me add, this doesn't work in the NBA because they set, because of the load management, they set, like Embiid- Ooh, good call...
40:26
it's always based upon points per game, not points for the year. Right. So if they miss a bunch of games, they can still go over.
40:34
So don't do this in the NBA, but do this in the NFL when it's total yards gained or total touchdowns for the season. D- do it in anything that it's a counting stat thing. Yes. Not, not a rate thing. Okay.
40:45
Um, no, that's a good add-on, that's true, 'cause the NBA does it a little differently in, in the, in the betting markets or, or the betting or, or the sports books do it differently for the NBA. Okay.
40:54
Um, and then we, we would not be Steve Fezzik appearance, and by the way, would you like to promote? Again, next week I will not be here.
41:01
Um, uh, Numbers Game is shifting to a, uh, to a training, NFL training camp format for the, for the five days of next week, but then the following week, uh, Kelly will be in here with, uh, Matt Brown for part of that week, but on Thursday and Friday of that week, so two weeks hence,
41:18
so 13 and 14 days from now, it is Kelly Bilin and Steve Fezzik for a full two hours. Are you excited? Really looking forward to it.
41:25
Bill Ade goes ahead and texts me, and he's like, "Steve, we are looking forward to the non-Twitter Fezz." [laughs] Did he say that to you? No. [laughs] No, that, that would be my bit of advice.
41:35
I think that was my advice the other day, I would say, "So just be yourself and don't be Twitter Fezz." Yes. Yeah. Well, you can't mess this, you can't mess this whole thing up by being Twitter Fezz.
41:43
All right, so last thing then, it's not a Fezzik appearance until we, uh, we do something in terms of status here in town.
41:49
You are obsessed with status, uh, in terms of, uh, not, not social status, but in terms of casino status. What is, uh, one thing that you wanted to point out to folks?
41:59
Y- yeah, and, and by the way, this is another reason why Vegas is,
42:03
some people are disenchanted, so many people do have those status cards, and they cut in line, and they get easier registrations, and get, you get access- The, the Starbucks thing is the worst.
42:12
People, like, I, you almost feel, I know you, you might not have a compunction doing that, but if you jump ahead of people at Starbucks, the looks you get from folks, and you're like, "Oh, sorry, status, status."
42:21
Exactly. Yeah. But even reservations- Yeah...
42:23
like we're over at the Wynn, and they're overbooked, and they got me in because I had my Wynn black card, and they didn't notice it had expired, and so bang, they, you know, they, they put me through.
42:31
But having a status card, well, and you're like, "Hey, I'm not a big gambler, it's not fair," you don't have to be. So the MGM, for instance, if you just sign up for their credit card, you automatically get Pearl status.
42:41
That gets you free parking, and you know what? It's big. More and more it's- It's big... special event pricing. You go in, and there's always a special event. It's like $80 on some weekends.
42:52
So, so that's the easiest card to get, but, and you know, once you get status at one place, a lot of times these other places are like, "Okay, well, if the MGM says you're worthy, we'll, we'll m- we, we'll go ahead and take their word for it," and they'll match you, you know, moving around.
43:05
But, like, Rufus Peabody was golfing, and, like, I, I mentioned, you know, Rufus, you got, you can, you, you get four rounds of golf free at Rio Secco and at, um, Cascada, and he looks at me like, "Oh," you know?
43:17
Like, like he never even thought- Ah, that guy, that guy has attention... about using that, and he had his seven star- Yeah... at, at, at Caesars, so you get four free rounds of golf.
43:24
MGM doesn't give you Shadow Creek stuff, does it? No. Well, not unless you're betting 25,000 a hand. That's right.
43:29
You might not get a smoothie at Resorts World, but- And do, yes, and do we [laughs] that's right, you won't, you won't get that.
43:35
But do we also still have the, uh, the in, at Caesars, do we still do the Atlantic, uh, excuse me, the Atlantis in the Bahamas? Th- thank you, and that's, that's really the number one.
43:45
If you're even just a, a, a lowly platinum level, which you could get in, in 15 minutes playing video poker, just ask me and I'll tell you how, um, but, um, y- the nine six machine, and you wanna go up to Tahoe where they've got the, the, the, the easiest machine to get this, that'll get you a free vacation to go to the Bahamas.
44:04
If you're on the East Coast and you wanna get out of the, the New England winter, I mean, that is a great perk. I've done it, and I, um, I, I, you know, I have to say I'm shocked everyone isn't doing it.
44:15
That was the one where a, a few years ago I said to Crack, to Bill Krackenberger, I said, "That's the one where f- you know, five years from now," this is three years ago, I said, "we'll look back on it and we'll say the good old days, they used to send people to the Bahamas," but it's still there.
44:29
It's still there. Still there. Even just for platinum. All right, Fezzik, don't mess up this show two weeks from now, okay? That's your, those are your marching orders. I'll just blame Kelly.
44:36
No, we look forward to it, man. You guys are gonna have a great time. Steve Fezzik, everybody, @FezzikSports on Twitter. Follow at your own peril. Thank you, sir. Thank you, Gilly.
44:45
Coming back with some Vegas refund and more next.
A Numbers Game
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