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Jul 12, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 12, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 12, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:48
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:09
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, all proudly brought to you by DraftKings here live at Bar Canada at the D.
0:18
It's Gil Alexander, and it's Kelly Midlin in the hizzy on this Friday. How you doing, man? Good? Doing well, man. How are you? I'm, I'm good. I'm good. Um, got a good show.
0:29
Felika, Paul Carr on soccer, Jason Weingarten, Jordan Sherwood on UFC, JP Acosta on the NFL. We'll get into all of that.
0:37
Uh, Kelly and I will continue NFL props week, where this time we talk about most points and fewest points scored. We'll do that. Um, tennis update real quick. Yesterday
0:49
hit a, in, in what has otherwise been a disastrous tournament for me, a bit of a silver lining.
0:55
Hit Barbora Krejčíková yesterday at, uh, plus three seventy-seven, plus had her plus four and a half, so that was a huge match for us. Krejčíková and, Krejčíková beats Rybakina.
1:04
The women's final at Wimbledon, Krejčíková versus Paolini.
1:09
I just wanna say this 'cause, uh, Drew Dinsick and I do s- uh, Beating the Book Slams podcast, sl- uh, podcast for each of the tennis slams, each of the majors, and Wimbledon is the one where we just sort of laugh at 'cause it's grass season.
1:24
If Krejčíková wins, it will be the second year in a row where we did not even mention the winner's name on the preview podcast.
1:31
[laughs] And we say it just like, we just throw our hands up in the air like, who-- Vekic versus Krejčíková, I would-- First of all, nobody posted that.
1:39
If I, I asked Drew yesterday via text, I was like, "If that was a pre-flop matchup," he says, uh, I said, "What would the number be?" He goes, "My fair price was like twenty-five thousand to one."
1:48
Yeah, that's all I'm tweeting about yesterday.
1:50
[laughs] It's just- And again, and again, listening to him on it, like I, me just learning yesterday, listening to one of his podcasts, that Krejčíková just avoided grass for like four or five years, like it's just incredible to me.
2:01
She, she played doubles back in like twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, but she, she did not play singles, um, basically until twenty twenty-one. She just avoided playing singles there. It's, it's wild. [laughs] Yeah.
2:13
It's just wild. And Paolini, Paolini didn't have a grass win before this year. So I mean, what are, what are we doing with that term? Anyway- Yeah...
2:19
so it's Krejčíková, and congratulations to everybody who tailed 'cause that was a huge win for us yesterday, silver lining, as I said. Uh, today I had the, uh, the over in this Alcaraz-Medvedev match. Good start.
2:29
Medvedev won the, uh, first set in a tiebreaker. Carlito's up a break in the second, so, so far so good. We'll see. Uh, looks good unless someone crushes the other one in sets three and four.
2:38
The only- Yeah, seven six is an awesome start for you, right? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, it's a good start. And then the only thing, uh, left today is I took Musetti.
2:45
I took Lorenzo Musetti plus the games, plus six and a half games in the match against Novak Djokovic.
2:51
No chance I would take Musetti on the money line, uh, but I did take him plus six and a half games against the great Novak later today. That's the only thing left at Wimbledon.
3:00
Um, I wanna start today, Kelly, if I could, with something that we did yesterday, which is, um, I talked about, uh, Tom Tango's Cy Young tracker and that I had made a bet on Seth Lugo, uh, of the Royals at thirteen to one and fourteen to one, um, to win the American League Cy Young, and I cited the fact that, uh, Tom Tango's Cy Young tracker has Lugo by margin in the lead on the American League side of things.
3:27
And it's a tried and true formula where twelve, where he has called twelve of the fourteen eventual winners. Um, a lot of views, tons of views on this.
3:35
Um, but I wanna sh- I wanna shout out and I wanna thank Mookie, Mook_Franchise. Uh, he was not happy with the segment.
3:43
Um, and I, I think it was a great reminder for, for me that, uh, the Marvin Gaye Sexual Healing principle should, uh, apply here. Let me explain.
3:54
Uh, I used to be a, uh, radio DJ in music side of things, uh, and I once worked for what was considered at that time an oldies station, oldies in quotes, but we played the same songs over and over and over again.
4:07
And so the DJs themselves, like me, that were playing them, we got sick of the songs.
4:12
But the program director, the late Michael Erickson, always reminded us, he goes, "Just remember, someone's punching in for the first time every time you play Marvin Gaye's Sexual Healing." So I, I thank Mookie.
4:22
Mookie's problem with it was, uh, he was like, "Hey," uh, he, he goes, "Did it predict twelve of the fourteen last winners in the middle of July?" And he had a real problem with this.
4:31
So I've never been accused of not over-explaining something, so this is a rare, this is a rare opportunity for me to actually go back and be more thorough. So thank you, Mookie, I appreciate it.
4:40
Um, no, it doesn't predict it in the middle of July, but we're talking about value here. So the fa-- If he was two to one, if Seth Lugo was two to one or three to one in the betting market, it would not trigger a play.
4:55
But at thirteen to one or fourteen to one, Tango's tracker juxtaposed against the betting market, it's absolutely a play for me. Now, to your point, I could have been more thorough about it though.
5:06
And so for those who are just landing for the first time, what I could have added was this: I hope people understand that that means it's not a lock, right?
5:15
Nor did I suggest that it was, but in case you misinterpret, "Wow, he bet it, therefore it must be, he must think Seth Lugo is absolutely gonna win this," no.
5:23
Um, it's just like betting, I don't know, let's take on a nightly basis the Tiger, uh, the Tigers are good now to some extent.
5:29
Let's say I'm taking the White Sox at, uh, plus two eighty on a given night in Major League Baseball. I don't necessarily think if I'm betting the White Sox, they're gonna win the game outright.
5:38
But if I think they should be, I don't know, plus one fifty as opposed to plus two eighty, that indicates value. And so that's what I'm doing with Seth Lugo using Tom Tango's tracker as a crutch for this.
5:50
Thirteen to one or fourteen to one, not only is he leading in the tracker, but he's winning it by margin. That's a bet that I think has value.
5:58
The other part that I could have added, and again, shout out to Mookie for, uh, for reminding me of the Marvin Gaye principle here, is Seth Lugo actually does have some advanced metrics that indicate poor regression, right?
6:09
He has a l- he has a very fortunate BABIP. He has a fortunate home run to fly ball rate. And he also, um, third one Quite frankly, he,
6:21
his, you know, his underlying metrics also include a strand rate that is higher than normal. Now, those things can regress. He may actually end up, those things may end up manifesting.
6:32
He may have some poor performances, and he may not end up winning the Cy Young. But I consider the price where you could get him now, 13 or 14 to 1, as still worth a bet.
6:43
Because, as we know from the Blake Snell experience from last year, sometimes they don't regress when you think they're going to, and they regress the following season when, when you wear a San Francisco Giants uniform.
6:54
So anyway, just wanted to clarify that, and want to shout out Mookie. By the way, always, always accepting of the criticism, as long as you're cool about it. Mookie was totally cool about it. Yeah, he is.
7:01
So I appreciate it. Um, by the way, and at one point, Mookie also suggested I was just doing it to fill content, which I, I have to say I resented that.
7:09
Because, Kelly, if I was just here filling content, I would have a dancing lady from a drug commercial helping you get your A one Cs down. [laughs] That's who I would have on the show. I would never do that.
7:21
So, so please, Mook, come on. [laughs] Uh, now, the great Tom Tango.
7:25
This is, this is awesome because, just a reference, uh, Annie Hall was this great Woody Allen movie from 1975, and one of the great lines, one of the great scenes in that movie, and I've used this to describe Roxy Roxborough, the great Roxy Roxborough, the founder of, uh, Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
7:40
When he comes on the show, I always say, "He's my Marshall McLuhan." Uh, Marshall, Marshall McLuhan was a Canadian philosopher.
7:47
There's a scene in Annie Hall where Woody Allen is annoyed in his neurotic way by these two people arguing about something, and he's like, "Pfft. Let me..."
7:55
He, he brings Marshall McLuhan from behind a curtain, and McLuhan tells the two people off. And then Woody Allen looks at the camera and goes, "If only life were like this."
8:03
So Marshall McLuhan in this case is Tom Tango himself, and Tango, uh, chimed in on...
8:09
I was DM'ing with him too yesterday, but he chimed in on the thread because people were wondering, Paul Skeens yesterday threw seven no-hit innings in the Pirates win, a one to nothing win over the Brewers.
8:21
By the way, a lot of people were, were upset that they took him out and didn't give him a shot at the full game no-hitter.
8:26
But, you know, he was, he was teetering on 100 pitches, and they're not gonna, they're not gonna just, you know, risk anything with him. I know. Some people have, you know...
8:34
There's, there's varying opinions on the subject, but that was their thinking, and I get it. I think like six, seven years ago, I would've been angry that they took him out.
8:41
But it, now, now we get no-hitters like, you know, twice a week. I was... No, I mean, I was angry when, like, Clayton Kershaw had a perfect game- Uh, yes... in Colorado. Yes. Like, okay, it's Clayton Kershaw.
8:51
You can keep him going in. It's a perfect game, for God's sakes. But not on a rookie pitcher who's way over his pace on, on pitches.
8:58
Um, so anyway, so folks were wondering, all right, well, you gotta bet Paul Skeens for Cy Young now in the National League. Well, Marshall McLuhan, Mr. Tom Tango in this case, uh, chimed in on, on a couple of these.
9:07
So someone was asking, by the way, Skeens crashed to 11 to 1 in the NL Cy Young market in the National League. He's fourth. He's the fourth short shot. And, uh, Tom said this, Tom Tango said this, @TangoTiger.
9:19
He says, "If you double Skeens's stats," this is after the seven innings of no-hit ball yesterday.
9:24
"If you double Skeens's stats, you get Carlos Rodon in 2021," I believe Rodon was playing for the White Sox at that time, "who finished fifth behind the highlighted players, Andy Eovaldi."
9:34
He has this chart there where he shows the highlighted players. All you really n- need to know for this purpose is he finished fifth. He says, "I think the reality is qualifying for ERA title is a big deal.
9:44
A voter is going to be hard-pressed to put such a pitcher first or second on their ballot." Someone else chimed in then about, "Well, do you think he can get to 150 innings pitched?"
9:55
And Tango chimed in on that as well with a subsequent tweet where he says, "It's a tall order to get him to 150. He has 12 or 13 starts left. He's averaging six innings pitched per game, maxed out at seven.
10:06
You have to give him, let's say, let's say if we do the exercise of six and a half innings," we get it. There's no six and a half. It's six and a third, two and a third.
10:13
But let's just say for the purposes of the math, six and a half times 13, that's 84 innings to add to his current 66, and that would be 150 at best case. Tango says he's more likely to finish at around 140.
10:26
So totally appreciate not only Mookie for making the comments about this segment, but also Tom Tango for chiming in on listeners' questions about Skeens specifically.
10:36
And so I think the rush yesterday, you know, it's one thing. Will Hill, for instance, our buddy Will Hill. Yeah. He has Skeens to win the Cy Young Award. This goes back to our value conversation from before.
10:46
He has Skeens to win it at 100 to 1. Oh. I would never tell you not to bet it at 100 to 1, right? 'Cause that represents value. I wondered why he was tweeting about it yesterday.
10:56
If you, at 11 to 1, I, I can't recommend it for the reasons that Tom Tango states. So I hope, I just hope that's a... So thank you again to Mookie because that's a good lesson in sort of knowing that I can't assume.
11:09
We have a g- the, A Numbers Game listeners are the best in the game. I've said it many times, and I mean it. I'm not just blowing smoke. And it's a, it's probably the most sophisticated audience, right?
11:18
So I, but I sh- I still should not assume that everyone got every nuance of that, so.
11:22
And, and that's also when we went through this the other day, it was, I mean, because of what, you know, uh, Tango's, uh, formula is, right, for, for those points, uh, Skeens wasn't anywhere up there because it does involve innings pitched.
11:35
That's right. And as bettors, and I'll raise my hand 'cause I've done it many times, we tend to want to think other things are more important than others, and these voters, they're as simpleton as they come sometimes.
11:47
Most of the time, actually. We'll come back. Paul Carr on soccer next.
11:50
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13:00
To get 13 months of VSiN Pro for only $199 and gain instant access to our NFL betting guide, that's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe with promo code ANG. Uh, by the way, Felika texted in, uh, talking about Paolini versus Vekic.
13:15
He says, "It is an astonishing achievement for Paolini." I don't know if this is his words or if he's copy and pasting.
13:20
He says, "It's an astonishing achievement for Paolini, who had not won a tour level match on grass until 15 days ago in Eastbourne," [laughs] at one of the tuneups to Wimbledon, "and lost in the first round on her previous three visits to Wimbledon."
13:32
That's insane. That is insane. And then Krejickova didn't even play it for many years, until 2021. Yeah. Yeah. And in 2021 was her bl- was her best finish at Wimbledon. She got to the fourth round.
13:45
She had never gotten that far since. So there you go. Anyway, uh, by the way, I should point out that me and Felika, we're oppo on the women's final. I am on Krejickova, vsin.com/picks.
13:56
Uh, all host, all guests, all of their picks. I took Krejickova at minus 139. He likes Jasmine Paolini. By the way, Jasmine Paolini, adorable, uh, gracious in defeat at the French Open, charming as all get out.
14:12
She's just such, she's wonderful. Has won over the fans. Oh, she's tremendous. I don't think she'll win, but we'll see. Second straight slam final- Yep... for Paolini. I mean, we were on the air, right?
14:22
But we were getting tweets about, uh, [laughs] like the whole, what the whole crowd cheered for and, like, poor Vekic just, like, crying- Just weeping... through the match. Yeah, like- Just crying through...
14:30
in pain and all those types of things, and- By the way, that match yesterday? That match started an hour and a half before we got on air, and it ended a half hour before we got off. Three-hour match.
14:39
I ki- when I, when I was back home doing work, [laughs] I caught, I caught Fowler who's mentioned something. I was like, oh yeah, th- these matches were like- Amazing...
14:46
I think he said five and a half hours between the two of them? Yeah. Is what it ended up being. Yep. I was like, yeah, that is a long day of tennis- It was a great day of tennis... for two women's matches.
14:53
And Krejickova winning, it made it great for us. Uh, we've split the first two sets here. Alcaraz does come back, win the second set 6-3 as they begin the third.
15:01
Paul Carr joins us, ladies and gentlemen, to talk soccer, 'cause we got a couple big tournament finals at both Euro 2024 and Copa America. He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:10
You can follow him on Twitter, @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R. And of course, he's with True Media Networks and the host of the Expected Value podcast. Paulie, how you doing, man?
15:20
Gil, I and my guys have sent 83 sets of game notes for all the Euro and Copa games, so life is wonderful. So you have two left? That's it? No, we're done. That's it. That's all. You're done. Wow. Done them all. Yeah.
15:31
How pumped are you right now? Last night when I sent them, I just, I mean, I'm alone in my office. I can't really, you know, go high-five anybody, but I'm kind of- [laughs]...
15:40
running around my office and yelling as much as I can without waking up the family. [laughs] The child is like, "What is Dad doing?" Um- Yeah. All right, it's just done with the game notes. Don't worry about it.
15:48
Don't worry. He's got something called game notes. How long does it take you to do one game note? Just give us an idea.
15:53
Uh, I mean, there's, it's a collaboration with me and, and two of my guys, but it's probably, the, the first ones are probably four to six hours, and then it's between two and four hours total between the two or, or three of us for each additional one.
16:06
Jeez. Okay. You- But you do a lot of prep in advance. You know, you, you know the group head to heads that you can do in advance. You obviously know the tournament histories you can do in advance.
16:13
So, so there's a whole process of, you know, the whole six months before where you're just kind of piecing things together to make it easier in tournament. Well, good for you. You deserve a vacation.
16:22
You taking a vacation? Yes. Uh, I'm going to a US Women's game next week to work for Turner, and then I'm taking two weeks off. So yes. Yes. Nice. And then what? The FA Cup begins right, like, right away?
16:32
Like [laughs] Yeah. Premier, Premier League starts Tuesday. Oh. [laughs] There you go. Uh, okay. And then there's Olympic soccer, and then the Premier League does start August 16th or so. So yeah, soccer does not stop.
16:41
Where does Paul Carr go vacation, by the way? Uh, this time, so my daughter is very into American history, so we're going to Washington, DC. We're gonna see the sights. Hey.
16:48
And then probably also find a lake and crash somewhere once we come back. All right. Just know they, they, they shove you through the White House.
16:55
It takes about five minutes, so- Just look forward to being shoved through... don't, don't get offended. Don't get offended. Okay. Um- Wait, what? Yeah, the White House tour is like- What, do they ru- they rush it?
17:03
They just, yeah, get through it. Re- really? We, we got the tour. Yeah. Yeah. Got a schedule and very, I mean, you know, you get the email of, like, here's how it would be here within. We're gonna do this.
17:10
It's very, seems very organized. It was, it was quick when I was a kid. I can't imagine now with extra security what it's like now. Yeah.
17:16
Um- It's probably takes four times as long, but you see the same time, type of stuff. [laughs] Maybe so. All right, before we get to the Copa final and the Euro final, this gives us an opportunity.
17:25
I love when this comes up. Mm-hmm. Copa still plays. Do we call it a consolation game, or do we call it a third place game? What is the, what is the technical term here?
17:35
Third place match is officially what most of the tournaments call it, yeah. Okay. Let me just ask you a very simple question, and I just want you to lean in for this. Why? Why do we do this?
17:46
Uh, I mean, for Copa, it's pretty simple. Money. Yeah. 'Cause you're gonna, I mean, I don't know if they'll sell out. They're playing it in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium.
17:54
I don't know if they'll sell it out, but you're gonna sell another, whatever, 40,000, 50,000 tickets or so, so. Are you? Are you? Are really 40,000, 50,000 people showing up for this? I think.
18:03
I don't, I mean, Uruguay is, they have a pretty good following, even just here in Kansas City. Uh, Canada's probably not bringing in the crowds the same way, but that's, that's my, I think they just get one more...
18:13
round of tickets and all the money that comes with that. Now, Gil, as you, as you look at this graphic- Yes...
18:18
if you're anybody at home, this is literally Kelly just making up names for the f- uh, for the two, uh, games. [laughs] Uh, same thing. I was confused and I'm like, "Is this a third place game?" Like, I don't know.
18:27
That's what it is. They don't get medals, but I'm gonna write that and then I'm gonna put final for the championship game or final, 'cause I don't know what you call that either. Yeah, you, you get it right.
18:35
And it will get- Yeah... the third place team will get medals usually. So pretty much- They do get a medal. Oh, they get a medal. Okay. Oh, okay. There you go. They get a medal, Kelly. Did not know that.
18:43
[laughs] Get a bronze medal. Um, wait, so this, this is the third, the third place game is tomorrow, 8:00 PM Eastern, 5:00 PM Pacific. Do you dare handicap Canada and Uruguay? Uh, the short, short answer is no.
18:55
Um, and there's so many questions. Who, who's gonna play? I mean, if, if you saw that Uruguay, Colombia after the game, Uruguay players went into the stands. They said to defend their families from Colombia fans.
19:05
We don't know who may or may not be suspended from that yet. So yeah, I'm not touching this from a side standpoint. I'm probably gonna play over two and a half.
19:13
It's around minus 125 now, just because most third place games, I think it's nine out of 14, have had at least three goals.
19:20
They tend to be open, as you would kind of expect these games to be, with the stakes relatively low.
19:24
So I'll probably end up sprinkling on that, but there is not a side that I'm looking to touch, at least until lineups are out. Hey, Paul, for that, for that game, what do they do after 90 minutes?
19:31
'Cause I couldn't find a mar- Like, is it just over then? Like, can there be a- I, I believe they go to penalty kicks, straight to penalties. They do that- The final- They do that in Copa anyway... will have extra time.
19:40
Yeah, the final will have extra time- Yeah... if need be before penalties, but every other match goes straight to penalties, yeah. I just couldn't find a market for them of like, you know- Yeah...
19:48
who do, who, who would advance or something like that, you know? In Copa, with the exception- Yeah, yeah... of the final, they just go right to the kicks no matter what. All right. So then Sunday, the final.
19:56
Argentina- Yeah... and Colombia. Argentina +110. The draw is +195. Colombia +320 on the three-way. I mean, that's a tempting number on Colombia.
20:07
I, I mean, I think Argentina's the better team here, but I think the prices you're gonna get on Colombia are pretty nice. Uh, Lionel Messi's not 100%. That's pretty clear.
20:16
Uh, most of his, you look at his attacking numbers the last couple games after he may tweak something, they're much lower than his first two games.
20:23
And most of his, the offense that he's generated was a- in two games against Canada, which will just defend and bunker in ways that Colombia won't.
20:29
Uh, now Argentina has plenty of other good players, don't get me wrong, but Messi is still Messi, and kinda makes the, makes them hum. Uh, Colombia's defense is pretty good.
20:37
They have really done well at preventing opponents getting good shots, and while their attack hasn't been as good numbers-wise, they've also had a tougher path to the final, playing Brazil and Uruguay. Uh,
20:48
personally, I have a Colombia future that I'm- Let's go... riding here. +1400, let's get it. Uh, if I were to play this, I would play Colombia. Uh, I saw +165 out there this morning on them to lift the cup.
21:01
So that's, that's the way I would look if I were looking for it. I just think, you know, this is more than a 60/40 game as far as Colombia's concerned, so you get plus, north of +150 on it. I'm pretty happy about that.
21:10
All right. Uh, all right. Know Alexi Lalas after the game will have something to say about tears and tension and emotion and passion. Oh, yeah. Can't wait for that. Oh, yeah. All right. Love the drama.
21:20
England, Spain, Euros. What do you got? Ooh. Man, now this is a pretty good one. We saw, we actually saw this match up a year ago in the Women's World Cup final. Uh, Spain beat England there.
21:30
I think we see the same thing here. Uh, s- I mean, it's, it's kinda simple. You know, Spain is the best team at the term. There's really no question.
21:36
Uh, part of that is just because they actually seem interested in attacking. You know, they scored twice against Germany. They scored twice against France.
21:43
Uh, whereas England has just kind of been scraping out these games. You know, all three knockout games, they conceded first and then had to score late to either tie it up or win. Uh, but, uh, Spain is just better.
21:53
Uh, I like them to win. This is a three-way money line, +145, so that's a 90-minute bet. I think that's a, a pretty solid price. Uh, should be a pretty good game, though.
22:02
I mean, England's probably not gonna open up, but Spain has the patience and the players and the ability to break them down and get a goal. And as we saw against France, they didn't get one goal and then just sit there.
22:12
They went and got another one immediately a few minutes later. So I like Spain to win this one, uh, outright, +145. You can see, I've seen +150s this morning stripped in that way. All right. Spain +145 versus England.
22:23
That's the, uh, daytime game, if you will, on Sunday. And then at night, Colombia to lift the trophy +145 versus Argentina. Do I have those times correct? Sunday afternoon, Sunday night? Yes? Sound, sounds right to me.
22:35
Yes. Afternoon and night, yes. And don't forget, third place match on Saturday. We'll all be tuned in for that one. Get your popcorn. Eh, you can forget if you want. Uruguay, Canada.
22:43
Throw out the records when those two match up. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. You bet. Have a good weekend. @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R, on Twitter. We'll come back. NFL, most points, least points next.
22:53
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Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. Uh, on the front page today, everything, man. A little something for everyone. JBT on NBA Summer League.
23:18
Nigel Seeley on Euros 2024. Mike Zamich with Saratoga best bets. Zam-o bombing. Boom. At Saratoga. Uh, Zach Cohen's got his Wimbledon plays. Um, Adam Burke on the Great American Getaway 400. NASCAR, baby. Adam Burke.
23:34
Mm-hmm. Does it all, all at vsin.com. Check it out. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bittling, by the way. Bar Canada here at the D. Bar Canada, for those listening in Spanish at the Barrage.
23:43
Can I give JBT a shout-out real quick? Sure, please. Absolutely. Go to his Twitter account. If you're looking to bet Summer League, go to JBT's Twitter account.
23:50
He has compiled every single Summer League roster into one spreadsheet, which is not easy work because- Bro... there are not, like- That is good effort right there... yeah, yeah.
23:59
They, these things are not easily accessible. Um, I d- I don't have a bet as far as the futures.
24:05
I do like to bet some of those games, um, especially when we're in arena, [laughs] like what JBT was talking about the other day. [laughs] Mm-hmm.
24:11
Sometimes you can be there in the arena and be like, "I don't see player X, Y, and Z," who are some of their best players. "Maybe I should bet the other side." That's right.
24:19
Uh, like, the weird- That story JBT told the other day, that was one of the b- that was one of the greatest bets of my life. I just wish it would've, like, you know, 10X'd it. You know what I mean?
24:27
Or whatever maximum books are gonna take on a Summer League game. Was that the Scoot Henderson day? Was that the same day as that? No, no, it wasn't. Oh, okay. It wasn't.
24:34
But we were s- [laughs] we were sitting there, just sit- just sitting there in the stands doing work, and we were like, "This Pistons seem, uh, team sure looks like they're missing a few guys."
24:42
And like, JVT's like, "I'm gonna go down there and check it out." [laughs] We were like, "Okay, they're missing, like, three of their best players. Like, let's hammer this other side." Such a beautiful thing.
24:48
They got it. They got home. Uh, but yeah, he's got all the rosters there for the... So for people looking for that stuff, you gotta know who's playing.
24:52
Like, the Pelicans, the Pelicans just released theirs, I believe, yesterday, of who, uh, what their actual Summer League roster is.
24:59
Kinda laugh when I see people running to make bets and you're like, you don't even know who all, who all- Yeah... is playing for every team.
25:03
JVT, when he was on the show talking Summer League, did mention the Jazz and the Grizzlies, but that's before, again, knowing everybody who's playing for everyone. Correct, yeah. So.
25:12
At least those, those, those teams- Yeah... had started already in- Yeah... California and Salt Lake City. That's right. The, the old Salt Lake City pre-Summer League Summer League. I, I never understand that.
25:21
I, uh, do, you think they take pride in it like, like Vegas takes pride in, in ours? Okay, so yes. Yeah. And it's...
25:28
I love that you brought this up, 'cause I was kind of geeking out about this the other day, and like, where do you see all the broadcasters all, like, in, like, branded uniforms, right?
25:36
Like Salt Lake City Summer League or whatever. I'm like, they play, like, four games over two days. Yeah, it's very strange. Like, we're really going that- Super s- super quick... that big on it? Yeah. Yeah.
25:45
We got tweets updating the book. Always appreciate the feedback. Mark Hanson, "I totally understand your discussion with Crack yesterday about casinos closing. My wife and I loved staying at Barbary Coast.
25:54
Even though the Cromwell is beautiful, we don't even walk through the place." Yeah, this was a, I was just sort of...
25:59
I was mentioning that I can't go into Virgin, not that I really have a reason to go to Virgin unless there's some random concert there. Yeah. But it gives me...
26:07
I don't know, I get really strange feeling when I go in there now post-Hard Rock. I spent so much time in that building when it was the Hard Rock. Now I feel... You know what it is?
26:16
It's like the party, it, my childhood is over and the party is over, and so I get that kind of rush, I think. Yeah, plus I- I don't like it...
26:25
I don't know about you, but that place specifically, I've be- I've been in it one time since COVID. It was for a concert, which I think you've been to one, right? Didn't you, have you been? I have not gone.
26:33
Oh, you haven't? Okay, all right. Yeah. So I went there one time for a concert, but other than that, like, I don't know about you, but back during COVID, like, we, we had to go get shots.
26:41
Like, it was down at the convention center with National- Yes... Guard all around you, and that's right across [laughs] the street. And you're like, I don't know, like, that's always gonna remind me of that.
26:49
Oh, that's interesting.
26:50
Brian Schaeffer, who, uh, called Medvedev to win this tournament, uh, he objected to the fact that I said when Medvedev beats Sinner, I go, well, you know, like, if you could pick who's gotten injured, who, if you could, if you could determine who was gonna get injured, gassed, or ill during matches th- in this tournament, that's the best handicap you could have.
27:08
He took, I guess he got offended by that. I didn't mean to disparage your play of Medvedev. Good job. He got to the semis. So he wrote this morning, he goes, "We'll see how it plays out.
27:15
If he beats Alcaraz, that's all hogwash." Well, set apiece. Alcaraz right now up a break in the third, so we shall see.
27:26
By the way, I do need Medvedev to be competitive here so we can, uh, get my over home, 39 and a half.
27:30
David, "Haven't you made a wager that was graded as a loss," I guess he's just asking me, curious, "but have video footage showing otherwise where your bet should be a winner?" I don't have video footage of that.
27:41
That might be Spanky you're thinking about right there. Um, let's see. Trusty Glove, "Is the mathematical limit of tennis games played in a five-set match 63?" No, it is 65.
27:51
He said, "Has that ever happened in a pro match? 7-6, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6?" Or six 7s, you get it. Uh, not that I know of. Good questions. [laughs] Yeah, not that I know of, by the way.
28:00
Um, he said there was a 2018 Wimbledon match that got to 62 games. Yeah. Isner, of course. You know, Isner, of course, having the longest match of all time famously, um,
28:10
when they didn't have tiebreakers for the final set. Lasted three days. Rich Kopro, "I'm listening to a numbers game and watching Wimbledon. Life is good." And then Primetime, Cowboys_Cups1, "I'm sorry.
28:20
That f- [laughs] that first segment of you explaining value versus lock for me was akin to Homer Simpson listening to Mrs. Krabappel at parent-teacher conferences. Blah, blah, blah, wah, wah, wah.
28:29
Which segment will have today's lock of the century? That's what we need." [laughs] Yeah, Mookie didn't like it. That's why I had to do it. Um, he also says, "Do your listeners not know that Tango and Cash go together?"
28:40
[laughs] See what he did there? Thank you, Primetime. Thank you. Well done. Well done. You sh- you should have chimed in, not me.
28:46
Teasers and Barleys, "It may have been discussed before, but if Skeen is in the mix towards the end, will voters give him both Rookie of the Year and Cy Young?
28:51
That gave me another hesitation to bet him for Cy since he's minus 60, uh, 650 for Rookie of the Year." 100%, Dave. He's a, yeah, that's a great call. 100%. Oh, yeah. That's the quickest explanation of it.
29:01
I didn't wanna be that curt about it, but yes. The answer is they will be very hesitant to give him both.
29:07
And then Stringfellow Hawk, talking about the third place game, he says, "I took Canada five to one versus Uruguay. The match is in Charlotte, where Uruguay just lost in the semis in the fight in the stands.
29:16
They're probably, they probably just wanna get out of town." You know what? You might be right. You might be right. Yep. Uh, NFL, most points, least points. We start with most points. Where are the Falcons, Kelly?
29:28
The Falcons have the easiest schedule, and they were the first team I thought of, and they're not on the board at least 15 to one or shorter. Oh, great question. Let me look.
29:36
So that would be the first team I would think about if you're looking for value in this. Full disclosure, I have not bet this, but at least that was my first instinct. We're showing 10 teams that are shorter than them.
29:48
Niners being the short shot at five to one, followed by the Lions at plus 550. A lot of people go with the Lions here, and I get why both of those two teams are the short shot, but I wouldn't bet it at those numbers.
29:59
Let's put it this way. That is, Falcons are 40 to 1. Bro, you got- 4-0 to 1... Kirk Cousins and a fleet of- Yeah... skill position players. I would, if I'm betting anything in this market, that's what I'm betting.
30:13
Now, just to recap, so recap a couple things from last year. This is a little bit of a, it's an interesting market to me. I don't like, I've never bet one of these before. I've never bet it either, yeah.
30:20
But I did, like, I was thinking about it yesterday, and I'm like, this is kind of an alternative way of betting, like, win totals or something if you didn't wanna get, right, like, points scored. Yeah.
30:29
Maybe you get robbed at the end by a- Yep... close game for a win or a loss. Or you have nothing to play for, week 18. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So, so most points scored last season, Cowboys 509, Dolphins 496.
30:41
I should probably put my phone on mute. It's my first show, sorry. 49ers 491, Ravens 485, Lions 461. So those are your top five scoring teams.
30:49
If you wanna go by pace or most plays per game, it was Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Buffalo, New Orleans last year. So the two teams that are in that top five on both of those would be the Cowboys and the Lions.
31:03
So- Say that, what category was this? That was most plays per game Most plays per game So Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Buffalo, New Orleans is how that went. Okay.
31:12
So, the w- two carry—crossovers between most plays and then most points were Dallas and Detroit. Okay. Uh, makes sense from what you saw a year ago. That's why they're as short as they are.
31:21
Although Cowboys, not quite as short as I guess I thought they'd be, but still some question marks I guess over what that offense is gonna look like with some of these contract guys.
31:30
I haven't bet this 'cause we don't have this in Nevada. If I wor- if I was, I would take the 40 to1 shot on the Falcons.
31:36
I will say this, anything in any of these props we're doing that are, like, between five to one and six to one, my instinct is to not, i- is to say that they're not short enough.
31:45
The exception, though, was what we talked about yesterday. Yeah. The Patriots at six to one to be the last winless, to me is still a great bet. Like, I could not talk myself off that. I tried. I couldn't.
31:57
Not as sexy as last year's 15 to one. I do, I do think your point, too, of the... I, I mean, it just matter, it matters who you're gonna play, uh, you know, in division, and it's like the Lions should be short.
32:08
They should probably be the one of the short shots here, but like- But why aren't the Falcons short? No, I know. But like that- Yeah... but like that division got a, got a whole lot tougher, right? Yeah.
32:17
Like, it's tougher overall. Um, and yeah, I d- I don't, I mean, Tampa, I mean, Tampa has a decent defense, but then what else are we talking about here?
32:26
[laughs] Carolina, Carolina, New Orleans, like we're going crazy over them. Odds to score least points, no surprise the Patriots are the short shot. And here, and in this category, I'll just, I'll just end it quick.
32:37
H- you could make a case for the Broncos, and the Raiders, and the Panthers, even the St- By the way, I would w- I would have wanted the Steelers to be way longer than that, but, like, they're hip to the Steelers here at eight to one.
32:46
Yeah. Yeah, they are. They- So I would have no bet here Is, is it- I would have no opinion So the most points one was way, was way more interesting to me- Way more... than that one. Yes.
32:54
Uh, 'cause like you kind of just said- Yeah... this one feels incredibly properly priced to me. Correct. And- I agree... I think I'd be shocked if it isn't one of these teams, and I don't know which. I don't know which.
33:04
But I think it's one of those teams that's in the single digits. But- They're anywhere from Patriots to Titans But there's no chance you can talk yourself into a bet on any of these- No... 'cause it could be any of 'em.
33:14
I, yeah, there, there was nothing here. The Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Panthers, Steelers, Titans, Giants. Interestingly, the Browns are the next team. Yeah. Shorter than the Chargers and the Commanders, so.
33:27
How are the Chargers only 22 to one for least points? [laughs] I mean, I mean, how are they that sh- how are they that short, I guess, is what I'm saying. 'Cause they shipped off all their skill position guys.
33:36
They're gonna be fine. Um, yeah, no play there, but if I had to play something in the most points, I think I would take the long shot on the Falcons. At 40, what did you say? 40 to one? Yeah, 40 to one. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
33:47
But full disclosure, no bets at this point. Falica, Weingarten, we got a whole bunch more to talk about. It's all coming up on A Numbers Game.
33:54
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back at Car- uh, Bar Canada, rather, at the D. I don't know where I was going there.
34:12
Car Canada. Car Canada. By Canada. Car Canada here at the D. Carbanada, as they say in Spanish, I believe. Um, Carlitos still up a break in the third set.
34:23
Come on, Medvedev, just win, win random games so we can hit the over here. So if this ends 6-4, what is that? 13, 22, 32, then we will simply need Medvedev to win two games to cash.
34:35
Two games in set four to cash the over. Okay? Everybody- Looks pretty good. All right. Looking good. Um, ladies and gentlemen, uh, when he was on the show mere, what was it?
34:44
Two days ago, he had no facial hair whatsoever. Now, not quite a full beard, but certainly no one would ever accuse him of being clean-shaven just two days ago.
34:53
It's Jason Weingarten, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line at Spreadapedia. What's happening? Good morning. Uh, you know, just getting ready for the All-Star break.
35:02
Every year I say I'm gonna be on a plane for the final pitch of, of the All-Star break, and I'll be on a plane tonight, so I'm two days ahead this year. Where are you going? Hampton's, baby. Oh, look at this guy.
35:15
Yeah, look at this guy. Paul Carr going to DC to help his daughter with history, and Jason going to the Hampton's to hang out with who? All the, all the celebs.
35:23
What's the, what's the most expensive pair of shoes you're bringing, Jason? Uh, sandals, actually. My, my rainbow, my rainbow sandals will be the, uh, most expensive pair of shoes I'm bringing. All right.
35:33
We got a lot to get, we got a lot to get to, but I wanna get to this first because I neglected to do so last time. Kelly so bravely, once again, off, off-air saying, "We gotta talk about this."
35:42
Claw machine update, what's the story? Claudia, she's, uh, she's good. [laughs] Um- Good. He named it... Claudia Clasen is her, uh, her full name, actually. Um- All right.
35:55
You bought a, you bought a carnival g- g- grade claw machine, and you're actually, where's it, where are you putting it? Marijuana store. Oh, there we go. What's in the cl- Yeah... what's in the machine?
36:07
What are you tempting people with? Uh, that's, that's for the store to, uh, to give me their, uh, their product. We're gonna put it in the machine.
36:16
Uh, some days you're gonna be able to just, you know, dollar play, see what you could win. And other days, they're gonna use it free play for promos, you know, spend 100 bucks or whatever, get a, get a free spin.
36:27
I'm, I will be renting them the machine. Uh, they will be, uh, you know, operating it, so. I, I was gonna ask how you're making... He's renting them the machine. Genius. He's onto something. Man is a genius.
36:37
Yeah, like it, it's a, I mean, the, the claw machine is, goes back, what? 30 years now? Oh. 40 years?
36:43
But there's still, I w- casinos, dispensaries, whatever we're ta- there's so many still, uses still for the claw machine for promotional purposes. Jason, I, I think this is real, genius. Genius.
36:53
Yeah, I mean, the, the key is essentially to get a high foot traffic location, and then everything else takes care of the rest if, uh, if you're doing it properly.
37:01
But again, I'm, I'm a beginner in this, so I'm still, still learning. Um, should be fun though. I enjoy doing it, and special thanks to Nas Reid, who is, uh, funding this endeavor.
37:11
[laughs] You can put the little bottles of liquor in there, you know? [laughs] Like, the mini bar bottles and- Kevin, we should really let Nas know about this. I'm sure he'll be really thrilled about it. Yeah.
37:19
Uh, you gotta do, you gotta do some kind of show Inside the Mind of Jason Weingarten. Uh, you greeted us this morning off air by telling us a little gambling story from this morning.
37:26
Would you like to share with everyone? Yeah, I woke up about an hour and a half ago, maybe, maybe slightly, slightly later. Um, I saw Moldova was playing, what was it? I can't even remember. Sweden. Wait, wait, wait.
37:39
Uh, Moldova, Sweden. Wait, wait, wait. Before you continue, tell everybody where you were. I was on, on the toilet. Okay. Oh. Continue.
37:45
Looking, looking at, at the golf, checking the, the Scottish Open, seeing what was going on in France with the women, and I saw, saw there was a Euro, Euro basketball tournament, and Moldova was an 87 and a half point underdog going into the fourth quarter.
38:00
I think they were down about 60, 65 points at that point. Uh, you know, and like I said, at the, Sweden, I don't know anything about Sweden under 20, but I assume it- Oh, we lost Jason in the satellite. Oh. Oh, man.
38:16
Right at the, right at the crux of the story. Anyway, bottom line is he used the old, "I mean, you gotta beat me-" Uh, I- Oh, you're back. Okay. Continue, because we lost you.
38:25
You basically were like, "Well, you gotta beat me by 88." How much, how much... How many were they down by at that point? About 60. Final score I saw, let's see, it was 114-35, so, uh- 75.
38:38
[laughs] Snuck- Only lost by 79... snuck, right. Yeah, it's a winner. Snuck in the back door. Uh, but yeah, you know, like- Okay... like you were saying, like, I like say, "Take 87 and a half points.
38:49
You gotta beat me by 88," so. [laughs] If someone gives you 87 and a half points, you take it.
38:54
Um- Moldova score by quarter, they had four in the first, seven in the second, 10 in the third, and a whopping 14 in the fourth- Wow... to get the cover, hopefully, Jason. Wow, good job, Moldova.
39:04
Got better as the game went on. All right. Um, okay, I wanna ask you this, and I'm gonna, again, state this, we, we do this apolitically.
39:13
K- uh, Jason and I have been talking about election betting from the dawn of time on this show.
39:18
Um, I just wanna get your thought on, do you believe, just your opinion, do you believe it is imminent that the president pulls out of the race, or, a- as the presumptive candidate of the Democratic Party, or do you believe he stays in at this point?
39:36
Seems that he has, you know, done the calculus and decided that, that he would rather stay than hand off to Kamala Harris. So, um, it's, it's, it's very hard to say, you know, what, what do you think they're gonna do.
39:53
Obviously, I know what I think they should do. Um, but it, it seems like Biden has decided that he's entrenched, and he's the best option, so I don't see him stepping aside. I do find this market incredibly unusual.
40:09
You know, you have Kamala Harris and Biden essentially priced the same right now.
40:14
Um, the incumbent president is, you know, being told the, the market, or the market is telling the incumbent president that, you know, "We don't believe in you."
40:22
So, you know, I do, I do keep that in mind, but it's, it's very hard to, to say that something's imminent, because by all, by all accounts they're, they're entrenched, and they're not, they're not changing their minds, so it's, it's very interesting.
40:37
It is. It's fascinating. It really is. And one would, one would think that if he were to, uh, say he is not running, that it would have to happen here. Uh, and when I say sooner, I mean super sooner than later.
40:50
Um, but right now he is going with he is the guy to, um, you know, he, he believes himself to be the best candidate. That is what he is saying publicly. You have Newsom 150 to one, right? What else do you have?
41:03
Uh, Newsom 150 and 50. I am not, not really optimistic that those are gonna come through, but they were good numbers when I, I got them. I, I bet those, you know, easily six, nine months ago. Yeah. Probably even later.
41:15
And that is, that is to win the presidency, not the nomination, just to be clear. Pre- presidency, but if he gets- Yeah... the nomination, I'd be sitting in a good spot with those, so. You would be. Yeah. We'll see.
41:25
Yeah. Uh, the drama will unfold, uh, with the Republican Convention starting this Monday. All right, baseball, what did you land on today? I bet the Yankees. Yankees minus 121 with, uh, Gerrit Cole on the mound.
41:37
I think that's, uh, a good price going into the All-Star break with, uh, Cole getting, getting back to full health. And I got the Astros minus 137.
41:47
My nemesis, Hunter Brown, I've, uh, I've been on both of his blowups this year. Uh, you know, that's a, he's a weird dude. He's, he's, he's been- [laughs]...
41:56
pitching really great, except, uh, couple games he hasn't that I've bet on him, but I'm, uh, I'm back on him today. That's, uh, that's it for, for baseball. Two plays.
42:04
Th- this brings up an interesting, though, uh, we've, we've talked about this for years. The All-Star break makes baseball season quirky.
42:11
Um, I often said that after the All-Star break, even if I was having a great first half of the season, something in that second half of July, where I don't know if it was teams just lollygagging back, they just weren't playing the same way, they weren't using the same lineups, whatever it was, my handicapping sort of went out the window for a couple weeks.
42:29
Like, it just got really bad in that window. Some people think it's before the All-Star break.
42:33
I just wanna point out a few records of, you know, teams that we all seem to think are great teams in the month of July thus far.
42:42
The, uh, Baltimore Orioles are four and five with a minus 25 run differential thus far in the month of July.
42:49
The Dodgers are three and six with a minus 29 run differential so far in the month of July, and the Yankees are two and seven with, oh by the way, a minus three, that's it, run differential in the month of July.
43:03
Do you find your handicapping gets more out of whack before the All-Star break, after the All-Star break, or you haven't noticed any difference? I haven't noticed before the All-Star break.
43:13
I do think there is definitely something to be said that, that players, you know, right before the All-Star break are pretty excited about the week off and time to reset and kind of get healthy.
43:24
Um, the, the farther you go in baseball season, most players are playing at under 100%, so, um, you know, the break is, is pretty beneficial to everybody, and it's not surprising that, you know, you take, uh, almost a week off baseball, you might be slow coming back for a couple days.
43:41
Um, I never really find a problem pre or post All-Star break. My issue tends to arise in September- Mm... when the rosters expand. Um, then my win percent goes significantly down, and I bet a lot less baseball.
43:57
Interesting. I, I have never had that trouble in September, and I've heard you say that about September before, but September to me gets... I, 'cause I think you have to go almost a little brain dead in September.
44:06
Like, you just sort of have to say, "Okay, certain teams are still, are still trying here, and others aren't."
44:10
But that's interesting that, that it's not as, that that's where the trouble lies for you as opposed to post or pre All-Star break. Jason, always appreciate it. Glad you hit the, uh, the Moldova bet. Um, well done, sir.
44:23
Thank you. It's always the best way to start your, uh, Friday morning is with, uh, Euro baskets. And enjoy the Hamptons, man. Be safe. Thank you. See you guys next week.
44:31
Jason Weingarten living the life, going to the Hamptons. You ever been to the Hamptons? Nope. Neither have I. I'm not really sure what it, all the fuss is about. Feels like a place you gotta be invited to.
44:40
Yeah, I think so. [laughs] I think you're right. Maybe that's why we haven't gone. Coming back with Chris Felica next. [upbeat music]
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