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Jul 15, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 15, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 15, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:46
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of the Numbers Game, live from downtown Las Vegas.
0:12
We are hanging out, Bar Canada at the D. I'm Ben Wilson in for Gil here, uh, today, as well as Thursday and Friday, with our producer Kelly Bidlin. Great to be back with you, Kelly. I missed you yesterday- Yeah, man...
0:22
on live bet Sunday. Uh, we had the great Will Hill, uh, filling in for you, but, uh, glad you're back in the saddle. We both had a, we both had interesting weekends.
0:29
Uh, you, you battling the, uh, the illness, and then I was... I had to... I drove eight hours in a day on Saturday, which is always fun. Oh, yeah, that was a, that was a fun one. Where did...
0:37
So you were down in Arizona- Arizona... calling the game, right? Yeah, that was... [laughs] Yeah. So what'd you do? You did the whole drive down, call the game, and drive right back? Yeah. It was...
0:45
I was in no man's land. It was Prescott, Arizona, about a four-hour drive. And, what, I'm on the air at noon the next day. You get off the air at 9:15-ish.
0:54
Vegas Nighthawks, by the way, of the Indoor Football League, clinched their first ever postseason berth, so- There we go... shout out to Vegas Nighthawks. Go Nighthawks. The Caw, going dancing.
1:02
Um, but I'm sitting there, I'm like, "Do I"... Yeah, like, what, if I... I had to wake up at, you know, 6:00 anyway, if I'm gonna drive back- Right. Yeah... for the show, so I might as well just knock it out in...
1:11
Yeah, uh, middle of nowhere Arizona, late at night, that speed limit's, what, 75, and that is quite literally just a suggestion- [laughs] It is... at late at night. It is wild out.
1:20
Put the cruise control at, like, 88, and I'm like, "All right, let's just get home." I will never, I will never forget dri- moving out here and driving through, yeah, driving through Texas and Arizona, and it is...
1:29
Uh, yeah, you see speed limit signs, uh, higher than you've ever seen, ever seen [laughs] in the United States. Yeah. And like you said, just a suggestion to mo- for most people. Yeah.
1:37
I made it back in 3:30 Saturday night, so that was good. Got home, I did not even set an alarm for the Sunday show, 'cause it's like, "Ah, it's noon. You don't need to."
1:44
And then I wake up, and it's, like, 10:00, and I'm going, "Oh, oh boy- [laughs]... we gotta, we gotta get ourselves, uh... we gotta get ourselves going today."
1:49
One thing that we were talking about, though, just our first thoughts here for the Open Championship. Kelly, wanna get your just first takeaway here. There's so much to break down, and we'll do- Yeah...
1:56
the deeper, uh, dive breakdown. But as we go to Royal Troon here for the Open Championship, that is the big event we'll be talking about this week, since we have no baseball until Friday.
2:04
Some teams don't play until Saturday, uh, coming out of the All-Star break. This is really the big one for us to really dive deep and break down. Scottie Scheffler, your favorite, as expected, plus 450.
2:13
Did not play, though, at the Renaissance Club over the weekend at the Scottish Open.
2:17
Rory McIlroy, he and Tyrrell Hatton, the t- the highest finishers from the last time the Open Championship in the rota was at Royal Troon. Those two were T5 back in 2016.
2:26
Hatton's 25 to 1, McIlroy second favorite, plus 750 here at DK.
2:32
And it i- it should be pointed out right off the top, before we even get into any sort of thought on the course, Kelly, that weather is always the most impactful of any of the four majors at the Open Championship, because it is links golf, and it is so wide open.
2:42
And already here, it's Monday, and we're getting into kind of the conflicting reports [laughs] of what the weather is actually gonna be like. You and I just looking at different sources during the break.
2:50
The report from the RNA, which you always love this report, when they say unsettled conditions as it pertains to weather for this week.
2:57
They're expecting Thursday gusts in the 25 to 30 mile an hour range with some rain in the morning, but again, it's weather. It's Monday. That could all change. It's at least a good point to...
3:06
a place to start, though, as far as an Open Championship that has a lot of question marks, and way more questions than it has answers when you have a, a favorite in Scheffler who didn't even play last week, which was certainly an interesting decision, to say the least.
3:17
Yeah. Yeah, yeah, we had a couple guys, yeah, kind of d- decide to, uh, take their own approaches to, to, uh, preparing, right, for the Open.
3:24
And you see that, uh, you see that from time to time with the majors, um, you know, guys not... uh, deciding not to play the week before. But yeah, a big, uh, big tournament that we had over, uh, this past week.
3:34
I love the Scottish Open. It keeps... I, I think that's a great tournament, keeps getting better every single year, it feels like. I know there's a lot of money behind it.
3:41
It's so weird just visually to have it on CBS, 'cause you just- Yeah... don't think of it that way, but the... they've done such a great job in the drama the last two years.
3:49
Uh, Rory over McIntyre last year, and then this year, McIntyre over Scott Piercy. Yeah, it's- But it, it's just odd visually.
3:55
Yeah, a- a- and I do like the setup of you get, you know, you get the two tournaments, 'cause you had the ISCO going on here then, uh, the old Barbasol here, uh, here stateside in Kentucky.
4:03
And it is, you know, with, with all the, with these signature events these days, i- you don't...
4:08
Th- this is something a little bit different that we've seen some more of in the past, but they're literally split PGA, PGA Tour and DP World Tour events.
4:17
And it becomes a little bit more like a, uh, like an invitational almost that we still get because there's some sponsors exemptions in, uh, as well.
4:25
And it's just, it's just a little bit different format than what you see at these signature events. So requires some different handicapping when you're approaching stuff like that.
4:32
But, uh, yeah, the Open, well, uh, the Open as we approach this re- week at Royal Troon, um, we've got long shots.
4:38
We'll be doing a special episode for tomorrow, uh, li- like we do, like we do for all the majors, so make sure to catch that. That'll be myself, Dave Ross, uh, and Wes Reynolds talking about that.
4:47
I think going back and looking at 2016 is a great place to start, though, and a couple things to note, uh, Ben, of last ti- last time we saw this. You're going to see, well, uh, differences from last week to this week.
4:58
A- and it's great. I love the Scottish Open, but when you see the Scottish Open every year, is you don't see a true, true link style course.
5:05
So there's really not gonna be a lot of carryover from what you saw at the Scottish Open to what you see at Royal Troon this week.
5:11
You'll also get, uh, at Troon, the first, what, six holes, I believe it is, are right on the ocean.
5:17
So it is really, as much as we wanna look at some weather [laughs] forecasts and stuff like that, we know what it i- well, you know what it's like playing right on the ocean, and it's kind of, you know, it's windy, it's gusty kind of no matter what.
5:28
Um, so that's always interesting. I- wi- with every Open, uh, the biggest piece of advice I can give is, for me, it's, it is, it is a, the major I usually bet the least on.
5:39
Will say, Ben, my betting form, though, that coming into this is, is pretty hot right now, so I'll probably be betting this a little bit bigger than I normally do.
5:47
A- and why I say I usually, I usually ratchet back on this a little bit is just because the weather play. It, it is such a big deal, and we've seen it affect so many tournaments in the past.
5:56
And yes, you can handicap, uh, you know, to see which players play best in the wind and stuff like that, but you just never kn- you never know really when stuff's gonna hi- hit guys, at what time.
6:06
Um, and it's a tou- it's a tough part of the game to handicap, where you don't get that as much, you know, when you see a US Open, or a PGA Championship, or the Masters.
6:13
Fair to say the tournament where the modeling probably comes in, as much as you're still going to do it- But a tournament that has the most feel-based bets- Yeah...
6:22
based on pedigree, and you're talking weather, the start times, the tee times matter so much. Fair to say that that is all true for this major- Yeah, I-... relative to the others?
6:31
Absolutely, and that, and that is why I dial back a bit, right? When, when I know I can't lean on my numbers as much, it's not, it's not gonna make me as confident.
6:39
Um, but, uh, yeah, so, you know, go- just going back to 2016, like this is a, I think this is a great [laughs]... Like, this is a great example of what you're gonna see this week. Henrik Stenson won at 20 under.
6:48
Okay, this course is easy, right? Like, no- That was such a duel. Him and Phil. Like, no problem, right? But look, you go back and look at this l- look at this l- scoreboard from 2016. Plus four was the cut.
6:58
Four over was where the cut happened, so, like, that is how difficult it, it was playing. It- Yeah. 17 guys finished under par... 17 guys finished under par, and then you had two guys completely run away with it.
7:08
It was Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson just battling, uh, for the last couple days, la- last couple days of the event, especially on the final day.
7:15
And they fi- [laughs] Stenson wins 20 under, s- Mickelson 17 under, and you got J.B. Holmes coming in third at six under par.
7:22
So I think make sure when you're really looking at this event this week, keep all that stuff in mind. This, of course, is still going to play rather tough.
7:29
Yes, there are some gettable holes, and just like any other open, when the conditions are quieter, it is going to be easier to attack.
7:36
Um, but yeah, biggest piece of advice I can give is, uh, we- we're gonna be talking about this all week.
7:40
I'm gonna be making some bets earlier, gonna have to make some bets earlier for s- for some content we've got coming up.
7:46
But longer you can wait to make bets, the better, when you have a better idea of what this, what the weather's truly gonna look like. And with everybody starting on the first tee, there could...
7:56
A- first tee, and Ben, you know this well, whe- when the golf's played over there this time of year and it's so much mo- s- daylight, right, la- lasts so much longer than usual, you get these longer spread out tee times.
8:07
And if you can't, you can have a wave advantage, then, with wet weather coming in if it hits early, it hits late, and it could affect some things.
8:14
So I would definitely say wait as long as you can before you get, uh, jump to put some bets in. Now- 100%... having said that, are there bets you wanna make before numbers move?
8:22
Absolutely, like there is every single week, uh, when you're betting golf. I mentioned this last week before the Scottish Open. I think I mentioned it a couple weeks before.
8:30
I'm basically on bet Collin Morikawa every time out until he wins, 'cause he is right there every single week. That's where his game's at, uh, right now. So that is the first bet that I made. I'm a little upset.
8:41
Uh, We- Wes brought this up on Long Shots last week. It was such a good point.
8:45
You look at the odds board for the Scottish Open, there were so many numbers that you were seeing basically the same thing listed for the open or, or even a little shorter when the O- when the Scottish Open didn't have Scottie Scheffler or any of the LIV guys.
8:59
So I'm a little uncomfortable betting Collin Morikawa. I just bet him this morning at 17-1, uh, right here at Circa.
9:04
I'm a little bet- a little uncomfortable betting him at 17-1 when I bet him j- just last week at 16-1 [laughs] in a much weaker field. Uh, but, uh, that's kind of what you're dealing with this week.
9:14
I still love Morikawa, where his game's at right now. Uh, the putter has been stro- has come on strong this year, Ben. And, um, you know, uh, y- you know his game.
9:22
I- i- if that gets rolling, he is, he becomes one of the top-tier golfers, uh, in the world, and that's where he's at right now.
9:29
The other comp too, you're talking about weak field last week versus, or weaker field last week compared to the major championship. Robert McIntyre goes out and wins at 40 to 1. Now he's sitting there 35 to 1 this week.
9:39
[laughs] Right. Yeah, exactly. Fresh off of a win. Are we advocating a bet on Robert McIntyre to win? I don't think so, um, on that. Yeah, that, that is a very good point. He's shortened to 14 to 1 now there at DK.
9:49
And I think the overarching theme just to think about, as you were talking earlier, Kelly, it's that, yes, we all remember Stenson and Phil with this amazing duel back in 2016, but that was the exception to the rule.
10:01
That was not how the rest of the field actually played out. Uh, the...
10:04
But what you kind of think about, though, how, you know, how Stenson was able to attack, and the, and the weather was very, very fair compared to what we expect to see it this week, and that really helped out, especially for the later tee times.
10:13
It was very fair as the day got later. You know, Stenson was just mashing the ball. Remember all those... He, he was just on it with the driver, and he was able to shorten this course so effectively.
10:22
So you naturally think about, you know, some of the preeminent drivers.
10:25
The, the big word is if with the weather, and it does not sound like it will be nearly as good, but, you know, there is a thought that, say, you know, you look at, like, a Ludvig Åberg, who's been in such good form until you get down to the final nitty-gritty of a tournament.
10:38
You know, for guys who drive the ball so well and will need to at a course like this, I mean, you can make it a completely different sort of layout if you are able to take advantage off the tee.
10:47
Yet that qualifier of if is why- Yeah...
10:49
a lot of people, I would say, so far from, from who I've talked to, Kelly, are saying, "Look, probably not making any bets until at the very, at the very earliest Mon- uh, Wednesday, late afternoon into Wednesday night," because we just will not know, especially for those first early versus late waves on Thursday, what to actually expect with the weather.
11:06
Yeah. Yeah. Uh, that's the... Uh, that is the way that, uh, I would... Yeah, I would be recommended to attack it. We're gonna be breaking it down, you know, all the next couple days, going through the course.
11:15
Um, you know, what kind of, what stats, e- especially on long shots, what stats to really be looking at from golfers, uh, for this week if you are doing any of your modeling at home yourself.
11:23
Uh, but yeah, uh, biggest piece of advice I can give [laughs] is circle some guys and then wait to see, uh, what weather's like and where they're teeing off at, uh, come Thursday.
11:31
I think that is a very good piece of sound advice here as we get the week started, open championship week here on a Numbers Game. When we come back, we get to talk NFL. We'll do that in a little bit.
11:40
We're gonna start with some d- general division previews here this week. We'll talk the AFC East when we return after this.
11:46
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12:05
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12:36
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12:47
Still to come this hour, Mike Somich from The Handle will join us at the desk. I always hesitate to say in studio, Kelly. I hear Bar Canada. It's really joins us at the table, at the desk here, Bar Canada at the D.
12:57
He'll be with us in about 50 minutes talking to MLB Futures. As we walked in today, it was just a- I'm pretty sure he's on Skype unless there's something you know that I don't. Oh, okay. Never- [laughs]
13:06
Well, that's funny, 'cause I saw him. He was with me at the desk on Friday. Okay. [laughs] He was starting his weekend jaunt here.
13:11
Well, it's always t- it's always tough when he's here for his weekends and you don't know when he's flying out. He has joined us at the shield before- Yeah. Okay. At the shield...
13:17
so you're, you are not wrong to think that. Yeah, we call it the shield. We call it the shield, Ben, 'cause look at it. It's, it's formed like a shield. That is very true.
13:23
I was taught in journalism school not to assume, but, uh, I was also taught in journalism, journalism school to break rules. Um, and I, I did, I just did break a rule there- [laughs]... of assuming.
13:33
But alas, that's why we don't do that. I was also gonna point out, uh- I, I could be wrong too. Maybe Mike will be walking up any second here. [laughs] That'd be awesome. That'd be hilarious.
13:40
We're about to, about to find out. I don't wanna make a bet on it, 'cause I, now I feel, uh, insecure about that, uh, thought. I feel like he would've told me. I feel like he would've told me. Probably.
13:47
It's also early, alas. Um, the other thought too as we're walking in today, what a weird feeling.
13:52
SEC Media Days is underway, and to see Nick Saban doing an interview, but as an ESPN analyst now from Hoover, Alabama at SEC Media Days, I don't know, man, just, just felt weird.
14:02
It's all, I just, that's just a random comment. Yeah. I mean- I just wanted to point that out... some of these guys, they just can't, they, they can't, they can't get away from the game, right?
14:09
Like, it's, it's their life. They don't know what to do without it. [laughs] And I think that's- I get that... Nick Saban a little bit. Yeah Like, just take, like, one year, man. You've made how many millions of dollars?
14:17
You have how many houses and bo- You, like, the thing is, if you're a high-level college football coach, doesn't matter how much money you're making, you never have any time to enjoy it, 'cause you're recruiting. Yep.
14:26
Going to booster dinners, all that stuff. You're basically a politician for 365 days out of the year. Can you just take a year to enjoy what, all the stuff you have? No, I, I, I'm with you.
14:37
I, I, that's what I would be doing. Like, also it's the, it's this, you know, literally it's media days. It's a figment of reality that has just been created out of nothing to give us content in the middle of July.
14:47
Like, why do you have to be there, Nick? I mean, come on. Alas, that's just my 30-second take on the, [laughs] on Nick Saban at SEC Media Days.
14:54
Um, we are, we are going to get into some NFL right now, because we've yet to talk about the league today. There, uh, really has not been much as far as odds movement recently.
15:02
The only, the one, uh, I guess, piece of news from over the weekend in what's been a tough off-season for the Minnesota Vikings here, uh, for a, a variety of reasons, but Jordan Addison gets arrested Friday near LAX on a DUI charge, which, I mean, I mean, LAX, it's already a zoo enough even dri- driving in that area, uh, for anybody who's been there, but that's, uh, that's not great for Minnesota, uh, as, uh, as that, uh, you know, that's a team who's already at the bottom of the odds board in the NFC North.
15:27
But, uh, not good to see. And, uh, we'll talk NFC North, I think, later in the week, Kelly, but for now we'll go AFC East. Just wanted to point that out in case you missed that- Yeah... there on the Vikings front.
15:35
Uh, but the AFC East here, and if there are any bets that we have yet to, that we have made here or gotten in pocket.
15:40
I have, I've not made any bets yet, Kelly, but I, I think it's interesting to at least circle back to, you know, a conversation we had on this show.
15:46
If you go back to, what was it, mid-February, we were just doing early thoughts on, uh, risers, fallers in general, starting that whole off-season cycle and just kind of comparing to where our thoughts are at now.
15:57
And Miami was a team I think you and I were both down on in the very early stages, you know, pre- free agency, pre-draft of, okay, you lose DC and Vic Fangio. Mm.
16:07
You have so many question marks on the defensive end with some key pieces, say like a Jalen Phillips. We don't know how effective he will be coming back off injury. That really hurt them toward the end of last year.
16:18
One in six against teams above 500, and a, a group that, I think, had a lot of question marks in general.
16:24
Yet, I think as we've gotten more distance from that, the general prevailing thought from a lot of respected bettors is, uh, this is a play-on team in 2024. So that's at least where I wanted to start on this.
16:32
They're the, uh, technically the third betting favorite at two to one in the, in the division, but just kind of a specific deep dive here on the Dolphins is, as to is our initial take on them, does it hold up or is there reason to believe that actually the off-season moves have actually been fruitful here for the Miami Dolphins?
16:46
I find myself still a little bit skeptical, even though they have brought in a lot here in the off-season. Yeah. I, I, yeah, I'm still skeptical. I, I'll say that.
16:53
I think I, I'm still a little bit worried about what they're, what they're gonna get defensively.
16:57
And then, a- and then the one, the one thought I, that I, I, that I can't get out of my head is just, i- is, I don't know, is the league gonna catch up on Mike McDaniel a little bit, right? Uh, defensively.
17:09
With him, with him being able to throw, throw everything out there that he's done offensively, now with Tyreek Hill, uh, you know, in the building for a year, and now that that's all on tape, I'm just wondering if there's...
17:19
I, I, I mean, I'm not doubting the guy as one of the best offensive minds, uh, in the league, but is there something that some of these defensive coordinators maybe catch onto, uh, a little bit with him and Tua?
17:30
I'm a little interested to see how that plays out, Ben. A- and I think, I think for all those reasons, it's really...
17:36
The, for all those reasons, and then Aaron Rodgers' return, it, it's really kept me away from making any bets on or against the Dolphins.
17:43
I, I'm not really saying this is a team I'm looking to, looking to fade, but I think when we're talking just the futures a- a- and division price, division price, win total, all that stuff, I don't know if I, I don't know if I have the confidence really in this team.
17:56
And, and this kind of applies to the Jets too. Um, you know, real confidence to go bet o- an over or an under on their win total or for them to win the division.
18:04
When it comes to this division overall- I, I, I think as long as Josh Allen's in Buffalo, I, I, I'm too obsessed with Josh Allen's [laughs] ability.
18:11
And I think where, where he brings their floor to is so high for what one guy can do at the quarterback position, that I'm still gonna always lean, even with Aaron Rodgers h- there in New York, and I think that Jets team is loaded on paper, uh, there's three really good teams there.
18:27
I'm still gonna give Josh Allen and Buffalo the edge over all three. So I think then that means New York, Miami, two, three in one order. And I don't really know where they fall, fall in that.
18:37
The one bet I've made in this division, um, is the, for the Patriots [laughs] to have the fewest wins in the NFL. Um, that is one I bet at plus 350. I think under their win total is probably a good bet.
18:48
It mi- it might be one that I still make here.
18:50
I, I just think with this division that they're facing, um, the talent on that roster, the, uh, the schedule that they have overall, I- asking them to get to five wins I think is gonna be tough. I, I...
19:01
But Jacoby Brissett, e- especially if he's...
19:04
I've got a little bit more trust he might be able to pick up one or two if he's starting under center, you know, we- you know, week one or through week five or six or something like that before Drake May takes over.
19:13
Uh, but it'd be only under looks for the Patriots for me. Jets, Dolphins, man, I just don't, I think those are two teams I'm not gonna be getting involved in, at least before the season, right? Right.
19:22
Well, let's, we could see... You know, some of these questions I have about the Dolphins, and then the Jets is just more going back to last year, right?
19:29
It's, it's more of the, "Okay, let's see, how does he, how does it all work together with Aaron Rodgers there for more than, you know, what, three quarters of a game?"
19:36
[laughs] That's- Or three, no, more than three plays. Yeah, three plays of a game. Okay. Sorry, yeah. Yes. Um, y- you know, I, that's still interesting to me to see how that plays out with the Jets.
19:46
Uh, Jets, Dolphins, I think before the season, not gonna be any bets for me on those two. It would be really interesting if you had the ability to...
19:52
We always talk about the, the forecast for the top two, which are very popular bets. If you could do a bottom two forecast. And I'm sure there are some books that offer that.
20:00
Because you basically are baking in, okay, New England to be the last place team feels like a very, very high likelihood of happening.
20:07
And then you're basically betting on, okay, of the top three, Buffalo, New York Jets, and Miami, who is going to be the disappointment and, and finish third within that division?
20:16
I also look at Miami, as we're kind of doing the, you know, the deeper dive into them, is just, you, you think about how tightly packed those two t- those, all the three teams are, at least the top of the AFC East.
20:26
A lot of individual, you know, small things that stick out on the schedule, where, say, you know, week one you're getting Jacksonville. It, it's a team who prepares in the exact same environment you do in camp.
20:34
That's not really an edge. As much as you can, you know, have the shade on your sideline and make it 30 degrees hotter on the other side. The Bills is a night game week two.
20:43
That to me is a, is a significant, a hampering of- Yeah... of some value.
20:46
I mean, we've remembered, we've seen what's happened when Buffalo's had to go to Miami early in the season, how crazy those games have been, how Buffalo has struggled in the heat. Now that's a night game.
20:56
S- in a similar fashion, I mean, your first three home games, one's against a team from Florida who's used to the conditions, the other two are night games.
21:02
That is the, the best time of year if you're Miami to take advantage of your home field, and yet two of the three are neutralized, and the other is against a team from Florida.
21:10
Right out of the gates, uh, that is a thing where in a division so tightly packed, purely based on schedule, I just don't like, uh, that a baked in automatic advantage is now being, for the most part, neutralized. Yeah.
21:21
No, and I agree. It's the, uh... These are the things, though, this is where as soon as the schedules come out, right, it's so important to look at this stuff.
21:28
Uh, because the, yeah, I think the NFL schedule makers over the years have do- a- actually done a great job of trying to level this stuff out, right?
21:36
You know where Miami has a, an advantage in their schedule, to not send so many cold weather teams down there to play early in the year. And then vice versa, right?
21:43
To not have teams like Miami, force them to go play too many snow games, you know, come November, December. And yet Miami at Green Bay on Thanksgiving- Yep... at Cleveland week 17, at the Jets week 18.
21:54
So they kind of got shafted in that result, uh, in that regard at least for this year.
21:58
As far as the, the defensive rankings here, because a lot of the, uh, the respected sites are now putting out positional rankings here. I just looked at PFF, Kelly.
22:05
Miami, 25th best defensive line, 20th best linebacking corps. Still a good secondary, that is top five, but also what do you expect in Anthony Weaver?
22:13
Brand new DC, comes over from Baltimore as their D-line coach, so has not been in the system. That's where a lot of the question marks for me lie.
22:19
And an offensive line that is ranked, uh, around the bottom 10, and so much of that has to do with Terron Armstead having missed 11 games over the last two seasons.
22:26
That is another huge question mark for Miami this year, and it's why I think both of us are kind of in a wait and see approach mode.
22:32
We're not buyers, we're not totally sellers yet, but I'm se- definitely more on the pessimistic side. Yeah.
22:36
And I, I mean, look, I love Mike McDaniel, I love the, love what he's done offensively, but i- a lot of that stuff, he schemed around the pass, right?
22:42
We don't run, get more horizontal stuff to get away from the offensive, uh, line issue. No question. Mike Somich from The Handle, he's going to join us next as we continue here on The Numbers Game.
22:50
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The Monday edition of The Numbers Game continues live from downtown Las Vegas.
23:08
Bar Canada at D, I'm Ben, he's Kelly, and we're about to welcome in Mike Somich. And I, I just lost a bet, Kelly. I, um, I was wrong.
23:15
[laughs] Would you like a, can I give you a, uh, cabana at Stadium Swim for your troubles, Kelly? Yeah, you can. Is that a good look? Absolutely. Any time, Ben.
23:20
I tried to offer one to Will Hill yesterday, and he, uh, he won a trivia bet, uh, with me on the 2011 Home Run Derby winner, which, uh, if you, if you can name that, or if Mike can, you guys will also be included in the, uh, in the giveaway.
23:30
No clue. No i- [laughs] no clue. I like how Kelly's just right away, "I have no idea." Anyway, we go out to our progressive guest line. I, I was, I saw him in person on Friday.
23:38
It was great to see Mike Somich, who's back in, uh, in California. Great to see you, Mike.
23:42
Uh, and, uh, if you can name the 2011 Home Run Derby c- uh, contest winner, I'll, uh, I'll just, I'll move Will's, Will's, uh, reward right over to you since he, he declined on account of the fact he has a family and is unable to come out to Vegas anymore.
23:54
I mean, I'll take a stab at, uh, Pete Alonso, but I have no idea. Uh, well, how old was Pete Alonso in 2011, Kelly? Like- Uh, yeah. Oh, 2011. Yeah, yeah. That- I thought you said 2021. [laughs] Oh, no, no, 2011.
24:03
Yeah, sorry. I was- Oh. I got, I got no idea. That would be Robinson Cano one, huh? Uh, Robinson Cano, yes. Hmm. Robinson Cano.
24:10
Yeah, no, no I, and I, I brought that up to Will just because we were talking about how, uh, like, just how we weirdly remember Home Run Derbies, I think more so because it is the one-off.
24:17
Like, there's no other sport, so in our, in our day and age where we just are used to watching six, seven games at the same time, the Home Run Derby weirdly still kind of resonates just because it is [laughs] this single one-off event.
24:28
Uh, are you doing anything derby-wise, All-Star game-wise, Mike, or is there a strategy for you that, uh, i- if there's nothing, you're kinda like...
24:34
I feel like it's either, like, you're all in, or you're like, "Hey, I'm sitting out. I don't, I don't feel like there's anything worth trying to extrapolate as far as value goes."
24:41
Well, it's, it's funny you mentioned, uh, yeah, having a family.
24:43
This event has changed for me since I had a family, because when I was single, the, all the guys would get out, we'd all go out, we'll go to a bar, we'd go to one person's house, get a bunch of beer, get a couple pizzas, drop in a couple pizza bet size bets, and then have two guys that we're rooting for in the Home Run Derby.
24:59
Problem for me now is, like, this is a three-hour event. I don't have three hours to sit down and watch people try and hit baseballs out of a stadium with no future value of it.
25:07
So I, I, I bet a little bit on Hunter Granderson just, just because I wanted to have something on it. Uh, or Gunnar Henderson, I'm sorry. Just to have a little something on it, but I...
25:15
Like, this is not the event it used to be for me. Yeah. Hunter Ganderson, that's a good Spoonerization right there. [laughs] Yeah. As we talk- Flipped it around. Yeah, yeah.
25:22
As we [laughs] uh, as, as we talk Home Run Derby, All-Star game. But I think more so than anything, what bettors like you...
25:28
I, you know, as much as we talk about these things in here and now, the, you know, the interesting bets to make are how the futures are reposted, and it's not just, you know, division, uh, league, or World Series, because those are up every day.
25:39
But now you get win totals here, which are posted at the halfway point, uh, even though we're, we're a little bit past halfway now.
25:44
A lot of books, DraftKings has reposted these now that we have this three-day, uh, really three, four-day... Some teams don't even play till Saturday, which is crazy, but it is a dead period, so to speak.
25:52
Uh, what do you look at now is you've got these things priced, and I'm sure that is the one area where now that they're posted, whether it is taking a look at strength of schedule or perceived moves at the deadline, who kinda stands out from that angle?
26:04
Yeah, I haven't played, or I haven't even actually looked at the win totals yet for the second half. It's something I'm planning on diving into today.
26:09
But for me, it's one of those markets where I think it's definitely worth taking a piece of and hitting. To, the...
26:14
I start out with, okay, who is playing way above and way below expectation, and then do we believe that's going to be on the same pace?
26:20
A lot of times you'll see these books just say, "Okay, we're just gonna extrapolate out from what we've seen in the first half of the season." I, I believe it's not... It's a little more nuanced to it.
26:29
You can kind of to go in and say, okay, like the Red Sox, for instance, do we believe that they are actually as good as they've played through the first half of the season? Are they a team that you can go against?
26:37
The Blue Jays, are they as bad as they've been? Can you go against them? I think the Royals are an interesting case.
26:41
It's a team I took over before the season started, but they've really slowed down, and they've also really struggled on the road.
26:47
Is that a team that you can look at and say, "I'm interested in fading the second half for them, even though I have the full season over"?
26:53
So gonna be a market that I dive into, but I think there is a ton of value here just from a, a the way the lines are made perspective.
27:00
Because this is not a line where it's like, okay, we're gonna take half of the full season number plus the current win total, that's gonna be the new win total. Yep.
27:06
There are adjustments that the books have made, and because of that, it allows you to then decide, do I wanna plant my flag now that I've seen these teams play half a season?
27:13
It's also where having bet preseason win totals now can give you a better portfolio simply because there are middle opportunities. Royals, a great, great example. They're 85 and a half just reposted.
27:22
What, uh, w- you had them preseason, right, over, Mike? Over 66 and a half. So I'd say you got a pretty wide, uh [laughs], you got a pretty wide window. It's a nice little middle.
27:31
[laughs] If you wanna take advantage, you could make a case. There's a very good chance that they land within that, uh, that 19 game spell.
27:36
As far as a couple teams here who are definitely in that category of they've overachieved and there are now question marks as to whether they can hang on to their division, Milwaukee in the NL Central, four and a half game lead over the Cardinals, and then in the AL Central, the Cleveland Guardians, four and a half up on the Twins.
27:50
Of those two, do you believe one is more likely here to fall back a little bit, and if so, is there a, a team you're looking at futures-wise you certainly believe could catch up? I, I believe they both could fall back.
28:01
I just don't know who catches Milwaukee. I, like, the rest of that division is awful as well.
28:05
Like, I, I would like to make a case for the Cubs as a Cubs fan and someone who has seen that team play well at certain stretches this t- season, but I can't see them being able to jump up and, and go get Milwaukee.
28:15
I do think that Cleveland is one of those teams where you gotta look at them and say, "This is a fade team toward the second half." They, they played very easy schedule the first couple months.
28:23
We saw them absolutely rack up wins, one of the best records in baseball. But look, the, the offense has overperformed, the pitching has overperformed.
28:29
This is a whole team that is due for regression at some point during the season. And I look there at the Twins, who are sitting in second, plus 475 to win the division.
28:37
That's a team where I, I kinda like the pitching staff. I think they're as good or better than the Guardians. The b- the bats have gotten going recently. Uh, to me, the Twins would be the team...
28:46
I'm sorry, the Twins are sitting there at plus 220. The Twins would be the team that I would take if I'm looking at someone inside those divisions to win if it's not the leader. So I, I do have a little bit of Twins bet.
28:54
I made it last weekend. I got a little bit better number than that, but still, the plus 220 I think is worthwhile.
28:59
The Twins, so frustrating, too, because I was on them yesterday, and just as you start to think, "All right, here come the Twins," you get, you're the number one offense against lefties and you get no hit going into the seventh against Blake Snell, who had an ERA over seven.
29:11
[laughs] Uh, then you tie the game in the ninth, only to lose on a walk-off inside the park homer where you had a... Uh, it was really an inside the park Little League homer, 'cause it was a triple and then an error.
29:21
It's like, the Twins, could they just, uh, stay out of their own way?
29:23
But it's why we kinda look at divisions like that, Mike, where you definitely feel like they are more wide open and, you know, it's sort of like, like, I guess in the Brewers case, if there isn't the obvious team to come back and beat them and overcome them in the division, that's where I think the win total comes into play, right?
29:38
'Cause they were, you know, a high, uh, high 70s, low 80s win total team. You're looking at 88 and a half.
29:43
Uh, as much as they are going to get Devin Williams back here, which is the closest thing for them to a big signing at the deadline, set to come back right after the All-Star break, and they did make the trade for Aaron Zavala, I still have big, big concerns.
29:53
And Dallas Keuchel was just DFA'd after a poor start the other day. That experiment did not go well. Uh, that could maybe be an angle.
29:59
Instead of trying to just throw a dart, right, at one of these NL Central teams, you just look at a team at an under win total, and you take that part of the handicap out of the equation. E- exactly.
30:08
I mean, that, that's where you, why you want to look at who's behind them and who's chasing from a division perspective. If you can find someone you like, great, take the plus money price, try and take a division price.
30:16
But if you have a team that you want to fade that's a top of the vision and there isn't anyone that you really like behind, now is a great time to be able to come in on the, on the under in a specific win total.
30:24
And I will say one other thing about the NL Central.
30:27
I made a absolutely kooky bet when I was in Las Vegas this weekend, that I may end up regretting here, but I took the Pirates at 110 to 1 to win the NL with the simple thought that the Braves, I don't think are, are gonna be able to come back nearly as good as we thought they were the preseason.
30:43
You're gonna get the Dodgers team a little more healthy, so you'll see a better version of the Dodgers here, and I respect the Phillies.
30:48
But if the Pirates can sneak in, and I get that rotation, specifically Skeens and then number two, they've got two top-end pitchers, I expect them to buy at the deadline.
30:57
If they do and they sneak in as a wild card, they're a team I'm interested in being able to win a couple series.
31:02
And when you have a number like 110 to 1, and all you need to do is win a couple series, it is very, very easy to be able to start buying off some of that incrementally and make sure you have a profitable ticket.
31:13
Even if you lose your hedge in the first round and you lose your hedge in the second round, you can still make money off 100 to 1.
31:18
And when you look at their odds to make the playoffs, we're talking single digits, so it's not like this is a crazy- Yeah... idea that they can get in.
31:23
Pittsburgh, a game and a half back in New York right now, and it's not like the wild card teams, even starting with St.
31:29
Louis, who's the number two team, a half game ahead of New York, not like those are teams lighting the world on fire. It's no 27 Yankees out here as far as the race for those second and third wild card spots of the NL.
31:38
Five to one for the Pirates to just make, and their stud Paul Skeens, who will start for the NL tomorrow in the All-Star Game, he's now down to five to one to win Cy Young here. If you were...
31:47
If for a Pirate bettor who's sitting there like, "Oh, all right, a long shot, but I want maybe that, that shorter runway sort of bet, either make the playoffs or Skeens to win the Cy Young," what's a better play at this point as we've seen both of those odds, especially Skeens get unbelievably cut down and get super short?
32:03
Yeah, the Cy Young to me is wild. I, I can't believe he's sitting at five to one. But this is... Like, we don't have anyone that, that you can really point to and say, "Okay, they should be the clear-cut favorite."
32:11
And if Skeens is able to do what he's been able to do throughout the full season, then yes, he's, he's gonna be a guy who's in the conversation.
32:17
I still have concerns that if the Pirates don't go for it at the deadline, we don't see a full season of Skeens. I think at the Rookie of the Year standpoint, pretty much three more starts and he's locked this thing up.
32:26
From the, the Cy Young standpoint, he will need to pitch the entire rest of the season, and he will not have to be given any time off during that period. I'm not sure we see that from the Pirates.
32:35
I don't know if we go to s- every six days he pitches. I don't know what we want to do from an innings limit.
32:39
But the fact that they took him out after throwing 99 pitches and having seven no-hit innings kind of gives you a little bit of reading the tea leaves of what to expect from the handling of Skeens as we go down the stretch here as well.
32:50
I think it's hard for him to win the Cy Young simply because he's not gonna have the counting numbers from an innings perspective to be able to get there if they do decide to pull the plug at any point for any reason.
32:59
Yeah. Here's the thing I keep coming back to on that start on Thursday, uh, Mike. It's like, if you're Pittsburgh, why not just have him go out there?
33:05
If he throws more pitches, well now he, now he can't pitch in the All-Star Game, and you protect him. Like, it's selfish, but you're helping your team. Why wouldn't Pittsburgh have done that? I don't know.
33:14
I mean, look, you also haven't had a no-hitter in forever if you're Pittsburgh, and this is, like, your guy.
33:18
Like, you need all the buzz you can get around a Pirates team when this organization has just not been relevant for a long time, and all of a sudden you're relevant. Go for it. Let- Like, let it... Like, go after it.
33:26
He throwed 120 pitches all year last year at LSU. It was crazy to me. There's Mike Dziedzic with us here at The Numbers Game. Always great to see you, Mike. Appreciate it. Have a good one, guys.
33:34
You know, it was karma, Kelly, for 2008. The Pittsburgh official scorer denied CC Sabathia what would've been a no-hitter, um, but was an obvious error. They called it an infield hit. That was karma.
33:44
[laughs] 16 years later. We'll wrap up the show next. Final thoughts on the Home Run Derby and Best Bets when we come back.
33:50
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:07
Right now, go to our new look vsin.com, optimized for mobile, where we have all of our best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state betting tools, and betting guides.
34:16
Right now, breakdowns on the newly released NBA win totals from our Zack Cohen. All but three teams available right now to bet on it, DK. And the Home Run Derby is tonight.
34:25
Adam Burke has a full breakdown on what to expect in the derby. We'll also have, later in the day, Tyler Shoemaker will post his best bets from his model for WNBA, as there is a full card tomorrow, all at vsin.com.
34:37
As we are back for the final time, big thanks to our, uh, technical directors, Andrew Ingold, uh, Matt Hicks hanging out. We've also, uh, got... Let's see, Chris, is, uh... Anybody else I missed?
34:45
Chris behind the scenes, uh- No, good... Kelly, uh- You, you got them all... yeah, I think- Ryan Pineda built graphics for us this morning There we go... Ryan, he doesn't get enough love...
34:51
Foster, uh, does, does great work for us as always. Thank you, Ryan Pineda. I appreciate it. So, uh, yeah, I felt, I felt bad because, uh, Justin Monteith tailed me on a, on that Twins bet yesterday and, and it lost.
35:00
But, uh, at least, at least I... At least he had enough conviction in me to, to back me. And at least he knew it was baseball, so- [laughs]... stuff happens. There you go. Yeah.
35:08
Some days you bet the best offense against certain, uh, certain armed pitchers, and then they get no-hit for six innings. It happens.
35:15
Um, that's why I think the All-Star break for all of us mentally is a, is a good time right now. Although, uh, kinda, kinda shocking that there's no WNBA today, Kelly. It's like, come on. W- what else is there going on?
35:25
It's, it's the Derby and, and nothing else. Yeah, we, we have to do some- All, all we have is Summer League today. Yeah, interesting, uh, scheduling this year, uh, which, which I like. I think there's been...
35:32
A lot of Mondays they've kind of taken off- And they-... uh, actually- Yeah, staggered... and then I, I love the day games that they've been doing. The kids camp days? Y- yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.
35:39
We were having a conversation off air about, uh, headsets and getting used to it.
35:43
I'd say the one thing you cannot ever get used to as a broadcaster is calling a basketball game that is on a school kids' day game, because in your ear, it's just the loudest shrieks humanly possible.
35:55
[laughs] And the thing is, it's not even for the home team. It's just anything. Like, I, I was doing a- Oh, that's great... uh, I was doing a U- Yeah, I don't feel bad for you at all.
36:02
It's, like, one of the few things in sports I love- Yeah... and like Major League Baseball, like the Marlins, like- The shriek... they're, they're, they're... The Marlins are trash how many years?
36:10
Like, every other year, right?
36:11
Like, I mean, it is just e- every year in a row it seems like such a bad team, yet the summer's always full of camp kids out there for the day having a blast and still enjoying the game, getting a hot dog.
36:21
I love seeing it. Like, doing those 1:00 PM tips, like, you're already kind of groggy. You're just, like...
36:25
You're not used to being, like, on, you know, for a, for a game specifically that early, and then you see, like, the caravan of orange shirts walk in, and you're just like, "Oh, God."
36:34
Oh, boy I never thought about it from that side of the coin You start talking to your audio guy. You're like, "Hey, man, can you just, can you just have it, you know? My, my eardrum might explode."
36:40
Yeah, blast the volume of myself here on the jam out. Can you, can you please just try to drown out the crowd noise a... Or, you then you gotta go one off, 'cause you're just, you just can't take it anymore.
36:49
Uh, happened... Actually, we can, you can, uh, talk to Wyatt Tomchek, our colleague, about that, 'cause it happened to us once at a UNLV women's game. I'd, when I'd just moved here.
36:55
It was, uh, I was doing TV, Wyatt was doing radio, and it was just... Oh, man. [laughs] That was, that was tough. I, my ears were ringing for, like, a week after that. Uh, anyway, for tonight, Home Run Derby.
37:06
As far as bets, uh, Kelly, you've, you've heard a lot of different opinions today. You've, you've, uh, you've gotten a lot. Are you going to dive in tonight? Little, little, uh- Well, I'm bet- I'm betting Alonso.
37:14
I'm, I'm definitely doing- Already Alonso... the, like, bet two approach. Like, I'm gonna bet Alonso and somebody else. I don't...
37:18
But Borcher kind of messed with me a little bit, because I was thinking Jose Ramirez as well. I thought that number looked a little long on him. Um, I don't know. I don't know what I'm gonna do now.
37:28
But I, definitely betting Alonso. Definitely betting Alonso. See, if it was still bracketed, say, one through eight, and let's say... You know, based on the odds, right? Jose Ramirez, who I like, he's 13 to 1.
37:38
He's the se- he has the seventh longest odds. Let's just say Jose Ramirez was the seven seed. Not that in the past the bracket actually matched the odds, but let's say he was.
37:46
It would be a lot easier to make a case for Alonso then, where I would be saying- Mm... okay, 'cause Alonso would be likely the number one seed. Right. You're seeing them on the opposite side of the bracket.
37:53
Then you are picking one from the top half, one from the bottom half. Because this is now reseeded, it's a little bit tougher- It's a good point, yep...
38:00
where there is a much greater likelihood, let's say Ramirez hits the fourth most homers. He gets in, but then he faces Alonso, and now you've got two futures that will knock each other out. Now, is that...
38:10
You know, would you, would you rather have that than, say, having to buy in on Alonso at a, a number half that price just to cover yourself?
38:16
You could make a case that it's, it could still be worth it in certain situations, depending on how deep of a long shot you are betting on, especially if it's a double-digit shot like, uh, Ramirez in this case for tonight.
38:25
But- No, I, no, I think that's a-... you still want to do it, dude, it would give me some hesitation. I, yeah, I think, no, I think that's a great point, and maybe the way to go about it.
38:31
I mean, you are, if you're looking at Teoscar Hernandez, li- like Mark Borcher brought up, or maybe Jose Ramirez, I, you could bet those, right?
38:40
Bet those before the derby, and then bet, uh, bet Alonso after you get down to the fi- that final four. And l- and, and, you know, if, uh, if he's not matched up with one of those guys. Yeah. The, uh, the...
38:50
And that's the thing too, is because they are- I'd rather get Alonso at this price, though. Like, I, I'm still gonna bet Alonso. Right. And I, I get that. And there's also a lot of different...
38:57
You know, there's, uh, the in- in-game, and it's, I, it's, I hesitate to even say in-game. 'Cause it's almost like you're round one of the derby is its own event. Yeah. Semifinals are its own event.
39:06
Because you've got, you, you have time to re-rack. The odds will come out. We'll have time to bet this. And I, actually, I remember, what was it? The, you and I, we were on the air together. It was primetime action.
39:15
I want to say this was, it was the Dodger Stadium, uh, event, when... Wasn't that, uh, wasn't that Albert Pujols who, he, he had this, he had this marathon first round? Yeah, [laughs] yeah, yeah. I believe so.
39:26
Yeah, yeah. Albert Ramirez. And he wins this first round. And you could just see, like- 'Cause wasn't it, like, his farewell tour? It was, yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, Pujols, he...
39:33
I mean, to say he used all of his energy in round one is kind of an understatement. And I remember, that, that was the year, uh, what was it? That was the Vlad Guerrero Jr. year. The odds come out for round two.
39:42
Remember Vladi was, like, -300. Yeah. And this was at, uh, the old, the, uh, when it was still the Will Hill app, uh, before the integration happened with Caesars for us here in Las Vegas. And do you remember that?
39:52
That comes out -300, and we're just going like, "All right, you gotta just bet the house on- [laughs] "... on Vladi." Like, you can't make this price high enough. And I just remember, we bet, we bet it.
40:01
You know, small bet, obviously. This is the derby. You're not betting much. But I just remember making a small bet, like minus three, I think it was -330 on Vlad in a second round matchup against Pujols.
40:09
And the number went to, like, you know, it just, everybody was betting. And it went to, like, -700 right away. Uh, so you do, you will see situationally, it is hard to reprice this stuff so quickly.
40:18
That's a good point, yeah. And if you're watching it, now that's a very extreme example [laughs] of a guy who's literally... Like, remember, they're toweling him off. They're pouring- Yeah... water on him.
40:26
But that's a great example of how you can actually use this to your benefit, and it's a little bit cleaner than, say, the traditional in-game, where you've got, like, a minute during a commercial to try to get a bet in.
40:34
Yeah. I, it's an extreme example, but I do think... And not that, not that this is easy to predict, but, I mean, jeez, every t- every year you watch the derby, like, there, there's always a guy who...
40:43
It, it feels like three-point contest too, right? Same, same thing, where it's like, okay, a guy that starts off hot, then immediately [laughs] cools down that next time up. Uh, or vice versa, right?
40:51
The guy who barely gets into that second round, and then goes nuclear out, from then on out.
40:56
Um, you know, those are, those are tough to predict, but I think, you know, live betting g- works very well during some of these events for that stuff.
41:02
I'd say now that there's the new timing, again, if, if you have missed some of the rule changes, it's still the three minutes, but you get a max of 40 pitches. And then the bonus round is no longer by time.
41:11
The bonus round at the end, you just get three outs. You can get a fourth out if you hit a 425 plus foot home run.
41:17
You would assume that, you know, because of the type of players we have in the derby, most guys will end up getting to four outs.
41:23
But I guess the situation, how it would present itself this year, Kelly, is if you get, say, a guy... 'Cause again, the timing's all gonna be the same, at least, you know, regulation-wise.
41:32
But you get a time it goes to a, a guy who goes to a bonus round and hits, like, 10, 11 homers, and is all of a sudden taking it a, an abnormally higher, greater amount of swings than, say, most of the other guys, where you're probably expecting the bonus round, you know, you hit maybe three, four, five homers.
41:47
Let's say somebody just goes off in the bonus round, where it's untimed, and now he's taking, like, 55, 60 swings in round one- Mm-hmm... as opposed to maybe 45.
41:56
That could be the one instance if you're watching it, and if it's not a guy that you really expected, right? Like, if it's an older guy.
42:01
Say it's a Marcell Ozuna, who's not, you, you don't think of Marcell Ozuna as a bastion of fitness necessarily.
42:06
[laughs] You think of him as a guy who tries to rob home runs by leaping at the wall on balls that land at the warning track. [laughs] That's what you think of Marcell Ozuna. I'm just throwing out, like, a hypothetical.
42:14
Yeah, yeah. That's probably the best example tonight of how it could play out if you're actually wanting to bet this and, and be on top of it from the odds perspective. Yeah, yeah. And I like that. I like that.
42:23
So you, you're on Alonso and Ramirez? Is, is that what you said? You bet- I'm just on Ramirez... or you just on Ramirez? I am, yeah. Just on Ramirez. So I did not add Alonso. I, [laughs]
42:31
I, I reserve the right to, uh, to definitely, uh, complain about getting another runner-up, because it seems like I've, I've been the king of the runner-up in this event. Again, going back to Miguel Sano 2017. Yeah.
42:41
Lot, lot of heartbreak for me. I think I'm sticking Alonso and Ramirez. That's where I'm at. Okay.
42:46
Or it's gonna be they end up meeting each other in the semifinals, and I'm like, "Damn it, I gotta bet Alonso," as you're sitting with a much bigger ticket- Yeah. [laughs]... in your pocket.
42:53
That's at least what, uh, what, what I'm afraid of on that. Other thing we should, uh, this I just, just make a note of this, Kelly, the next time you have Jason Weingarten on.
43:00
I just noticed at DK they added a brand-new market in the middle of the season on the awards, reliever of the year. That is, that is, that's the Rolaids, I believe, the sponsored Rolaids Relief Man of the Year award.
43:11
What's funny to me is this was not a bettable option all year, and all of a sudden at the trade deadline, or really at the All-Star break, we have seen this [laughs] added.
43:18
Ryan Helsley is the minus 125 favorite there of the St. Louis Cardinals. Um- That's very interesting. Uh- It's just random that an award market that is voted on would not be up all year, and now it is.
43:29
I just find that interesting, and it's probably something worth, uh, diving into, especially based on how this show usually works. Man, this has been, the, this award's been around for even longer than I thought, too.
43:38
It's only, it's only 10 years, but still, 10 years, and I- Yeah, the Rolaids Relief Man... yeah, I, I don't even know that I knew that that was a thing.
43:45
Do we think it'll be easier to figure out how the voting works for this or the Euro 2024, uh, player of the tournament? [laughs] 'Cause that was, that was an exercise in futility, uh, yesterday.
43:54
I felt bad for Will Hill and our friend, uh, Chris Felica, who had the field at a, a giant number, uh, and felt pretty good only for the panel of technical experts, quote, unquote.
44:04
Very much quote, unquote on that, Kelly. Uh, picking Rodri, who was one of the shorter shots, as the winner from Spain. Man, finally. There, I, I thought there was a lot of duds during that tournament.
44:12
That second half, though, was pretty fun to watch yesterday- That it was... that's for sure. That was, uh, there were some chaotic moments, man.
44:17
That, that corner kick, I, I thought England was gonna [laughs] score on a couple different headers, man. That was, uh, just incredible, incredible.
44:23
Wow, so many people had the Dani Olmo to win player of the tournament at giant numbers. He headed it off the line. It's incredible. Yeah. You thought there was a great chance. Alas. Summer soccer in the books.
44:33
We'll miss you, summer soccer. For Kelly Bidlin, for the rest of our outstanding crew, I'm Ben Wilson. We've done all that we can do. If you're listening on radio, GoJo Angolic is next.
44:40
If you're watching on Faison, Best Bets is coming up after this. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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