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Jul 16, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 16, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | July 16, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on BSIN. All right, here we go. Tuesday morning, it is a Numbers Game.
0:13
I'm Jarret Smith in for Gil Alexander today. We are in downtown Las Vegas at the D. I'll be here today. I will be here tomorrow. Kelly Bidlin has been here all week. Kelly, how you doing this morning, pal?
0:22
I'm doing great. It's been a long week so far. [laughs] It's, it's only Tuesday, bud. [laughs] It's only Tuesday, and it's supposed to be the All-Star break. That's right. Yeah, that's right.
0:29
This is supposed to be our chill time. I said, "What's an All-Star break?"
0:32
on, on social media just now because we don't bre- I, I was, my plan was, like a month ago, before, you know, you don't really know what you're doing every week, and when you work in the f- in the freelance game like I do, you never know.
0:45
You could have a show here, a show there, do this. But my, my scheme, my plan was, oh, All-Star break. I'm working hard during baseball season. Maybe I'll take a week off this week. Yeah, no, that didn't happen.
0:56
[laughs] Um, that's usually when everyone else- Yeah, too many other people have the same idea, buddy. [laughs]... takes a week off. And we're a- as the B squad here, hey, listen, you get the call.
1:06
Actually, no, it's on this side, the lefty. You call in the lefty, and here we are. So speaking of, uh, left-handed pitchers, we actually did see one in the All-Star in the Home Run Derby last night.
1:15
You don't see left-handed pitchers too much in the Home Run Derby throwing to these guys, but, um, that's where we'll start today. We got a great show booked for you. Uh, Drew Dinsick's gonna come on in about 15 minutes.
1:25
We're gonna talk some NBA. We're gonna talk some Olympics, too, and that's, that's not something I expected to talk about today. Um, but that is on the horizon.
1:32
Tyler Shoemaker, of course, BSIN writer's gonna come on and talk a little WNBA at the top of our next hour, and then at the bottom of our next hour, Byron Lendique? Did I get that right? Byron Lendaque. Lendaque.
1:43
Byron Lendaque, yeah. I'm glad I asked you that on air. [laughs] I should have asked you that off air. Uh- I should have told you that earlier... Byron Lendaque, host of the Back Nine Bets podcast, of course.
1:52
It is championship week. That's right, busy golf week, yep. It is open. Yeah, and we're gonna have to wake up early.
1:59
Um, that's the one thing about the European tournaments, not only the Euro, which we just had, which was a little bit more, I would say, Pacific Time Zone friendly.
2:08
Um, this is not, th- this tournament this week across the pond- This one's not, yeah. [laughs]... this one is not Pacific Time Zone friendly.
2:16
I think there might be a night, probably on Friday, where I might just not go to bed. Yeah, i- i- I mean, depends what your schedule is, right?
2:24
[laughs] Like, if you're, if you don't have to wake up early in the morning, unlike us, like- Saturday is a tough one. Maybe Saturday night into Sunday, maybe that is when I will catch the whole kit and caboodle.
2:35
Sunday morning, of course, 'cause that's the final round, but, um, I digress. We'll, we'll get Byron's thoughts. Um, we'll get Kelly's thoughts, of course, does a great job on the Long Shots, uh, podcast as well.
2:46
We got a lot of golf to talk about this week. But let's start with baseball. I know it's the All-Star break. Let's start with what we saw last night.
2:52
Let's start with the direct result, um, the morning after the Home Run Derby. I'll be honest, I think on a scale of one to 10, and I've been a Home Run Derby fan for probably since I was a kid.
3:04
I, I, I don't remember the ones in the '90s. I think, uh, the early 2000s, I think Josh Hamilton, I wanna say, in the 2008 range. Yeah.
3:13
I wanna say that was the first one where I was like, "Wow, this event's freaking awesome." Um, it, it wasn't awesome last night. It was not at that level.
3:20
It wasn't even at the level it was last year when Julio Rodriguez in the first round cracked 40 dingers.
3:25
I don't think anyone hit more than 21 in the first round la- I actually think Alec Bohm, who was the, the, the long shot of the whole night, had the most in the first round. That's kind of the night it was.
3:39
I'm not gonna be this old man yelling at the clouds saying, "Oh, well, back in my day they did it this way," but
3:46
they've made so many tweaks to the rules over the last five to 10 years, it's hard to kee- [laughs] it's really hard to kind of get a grasp of it. I do think there's betting value.
3:55
Teoscar Hernandez won, and he was about 12, 13 to one. I did a thread yesterday on social media going through all the pitchers that were going to be throwing to the hitters in the Home Run Derby.
4:06
Of all of the pitchers, Teoscar had the most experienced one, Dino Abel, who threw to Vladimir Guerrero, threw to Albert Pujols with the Angels, who threw to Joc Pederson with the Dodgers.
4:16
The guys that were kind of the middle of the pack pitchers who didn't have a ton of experience didn't fare as well. I thought Bobby Witt was fortunate to get into the final.
4:24
He had some lefty throwing at him, who was like curve ball after curve ball and then slider, splitter. [laughs] Like, it just, it, it feels like though, the way this tournament, the way this Home Run Derby has evolved,
4:36
it's getting harder to find value because of the new rules. It's getting a little bit harder to kind of sift through some of the new rules and just figure out what the heck is going on.
4:45
I think on a scale of one to 10, to go back to my original point, it was like a five last night.
4:49
Yeah, I, I, w- you know, we, Ben and I were sitting here yesterday talking about a lot of the new rules, and I think, like, I, you know, just even looking back, I still think I like the changes, but as you and I were talking a little bit before the show, it ju- man, it's become a lot.
5:00
[laughs] Like, it's just- Eduardo Perez, the guy on the broadcast, didn't even know the rules of the bonus round- [laughs]... until about halfway through.
5:05
He kept saying, "Oh, well, if he gets this 440 or 425 foot, he gets the bonus," and Carl Ralph's like, "No, no, no, that's, that's not how it works." Like, he, and that's a problem.
5:14
Like, when the broa-- And I'm not saying maybe he should've been a little more brushed up on the rules, but I, it was a little bit confl- it was a little bit convoluted.
5:21
It, it, it was not as cut and dry as it's been in years past, and I think the more they change it, the harder it is for people to kind of get into a routine- Yeah... with the rules. Yeah.
5:33
A- and- If it changes every year- [laughs] Right... it just, it, it, it kind of lessens a little bit of it. No, I think you're right.
5:38
I, and, and again, I think we, we're-- I actually liked all of them, but it is, I think at the end of the day, you're, whe- when you're seeing people struggle to figure them out on the broadcast- [laughs]...
5:48
it's like, are we maybe doing too much for something we call a Home Run Derby? I, I think, I think you nailed it. Where the point is just to hit a bunch of home runs, like. [laughs] You nailed it.
5:55
Doing too much, and I get accused of this all the time because we all try to do too much at some point in the, in our lives. Like, we all wanna overachieve.
6:04
We all wanna look good in the eyes of our employer, of our girlfriend, of our friends, whatever, and we-... kinda do too much.
6:11
I, I think there's gonna come a point where maybe, hopefully, we just decide on a set of rules and let that be. Like, at least give it a few years. It does seem like every year they change it.
6:24
But congratulations to Teoscar Hernández. Um, I, I think it was, I don't want to say the right result, but he was a guy that had a lot of buzz coming into the season, has had a really good year with the Dodgers.
6:37
I think other than Shohei, with Mookie Betts being hurt, Teoscar Hernández is, is one of the more important players in that Dodgers lineup, and he really showed off his skills last night.
6:48
It was not a very high-flying home run derby. We did not have a lot of memorable performances. Yeah, I mean, it was great ending though, right?
6:57
I like- The ending was good because Bobby Witt came, like, six feet away- That close, yeah... from tying it. From tying it up, yeah. And we did have a swing-off. I bet the yes on the swing-off last night- Oh, nice...
7:06
at, like, almost 4 to 1. Oh, okay. Nice. So, so that was a good result. I bet Teoscar to make the semis. I, I really liked Teoscar.
7:12
The analysis I did yesterday on the pitchers, I really thought Teoscar was a guy- Yeah, Bortcher gave him out yesterday on the show... who was gonna over, who was gonna overachieve. That's fantastic.
7:19
So again, it, it was an entertaining night. I, I do like the Home Run Derby. I l- I think I like it more because it's my first night in, like, four months where I don't have to worry about baseball games.
7:29
[laughs] You don't got to handicap a bunch of games, yeah. And, and I'm just kind of kicking my feet up, and I'm like, "Oh, this is nice. Let them hit a bunch of home runs."
7:35
And then tomorrow, or today, um, don't have to, you know, reset and do it all over again because now we get a nice little break, and, and that's kind of where the conversation moves now into tonight.
7:46
We do have a game on the docket. It's not like we're completely, um, devoid of baseball tonight. It's our last baseball game until Friday, the American League, the National League, the All-Star Game.
7:59
I struggle handicapping this game. I, I'm always transparent with you. I thought the Home Run Derby last night, I did see value. I bet Alonso. That didn't go too well. But I also bet Hernández.
8:09
I thought there was value, I think because of the nuances, not only the psychological nuances with performing in a home run derby, but some of the things that are important, like who's throwing to you and the rules.
8:20
I, I think there's a value, uh, proposition with the derby. I, I don't believe that in the All-Star Game. I, I, I honestly don't.
8:27
I, I think because of all the moving parts with the rosters, you don't know who's pitching when, you don't know who's leaving the game when. Right. I think that makes this All-Star Game the hardest to bet on.
8:41
I think the NBA All-Star Game's a little bit easier to bet on. Obviously, you're not betting on the hockey All-Star Game. Obviously, the Pro Bowls, you know, forget about that.
8:49
Of the two All-Star games, I actually think this is the tougher of the two. Yeah, it's, uh... I, I think they're both pretty comparable though. Like, I, I- They are. They're both tough.
8:57
I think this one's a little tougher though. Well, I think, like, the All-Star weekends in general, right? Like, I think a h- Like, I like throwing a couple bets in on the Home Run Derby. Me too.
9:04
I like throwing a couple bets in on the Three-point Contest. Three-point, yep. I do think there's a c- I think there are handicapping angles- Agreed... to them at least a little bit. Dunk Contest, not so much anymore.
9:11
Dunk Con- Dunk Contest, I stay away from. It's being decided by voters. Yeah, and a lot of people just don't even hang odds on it anymore, right? Um- I agree. But, uh, yeah, the games, the games, man, [laughs] are tough.
9:20
The games are tough. Even though, like, I... You know, Ben, Ben brought up, what are we, 13 and 3 to the under, I believe, in the last 16. Like- Yeah, that's been a good angle...
9:29
you have the AL has won 27 of the last 35. Like, what, what? Like, it's almost amazing to me the trends in this part. And the American League is favored tonight on DraftKings. They're about a minus 120 favorite, Nats.
9:39
Or the, the Nats, the National League [laughs] Nats. [laughs] They're, they're, they're even odds, um, basically, plus 102, uh, total sitting at seven and a half.
9:49
Yeah, I mean, I, I, I think if you bet the under, I, I'm assuming that's where most of the public is probably lying today, which means it's probably not a fair number. Um, let's check.
9:59
I did get some betting splits this morning. Yeah, the Nerfies the most popular bet on the board at MGM. That doesn't surprise me. Um, Ohtani and Judge to hit a home run, those are very popular bets.
10:09
Paul Skenes to have two or more strikeouts in the first inning, that is a very popular bet. I think the Skenes one's interesting because you think he might actually come back for the second inning.
10:18
That would be intriguing to me if they do run him out there for another inning. Usually, it's been one inning for each pitcher. Yeah, that's a big question mark there, right?
10:27
But if I recall, if I recall correctly, there has been years where the starter's gone two innings. Yeah. I might be wrong on that. I don't remember what happened last year.
10:35
Um, we've had a lot of baseball games since then. But Paul Skenes, uh, but it's, it's really hard to bet props in this game. Like O- like, Ohtani's plus 450 to home run. He might get two at bats.
10:47
Plus 450 to home run, like, he's usually around a 2 or 3 to 1, you know, shot to hit a homer. So now you're betting f- plus 450, and he might get two at bats. Like, a- and, and he could get pitched around. Yep.
10:57
Like, it just... Like, to me, those are bets that I don't have a whole lot of interest in making. Yes, the under is getting most of the handle tonight. I think the American League.
11:05
If you had to ask me which team has the better roster, I think I would lean American League, especially the starting lineup. Um, I think the American League has the better starting lineup.
11:16
I think the National League might be a little bit better on the, on the bench. I think the National League is a little bit younger. I think they might be a little bit hungrier.
11:24
I remember there was a big streak where one of the leagues had, like, a really long streak that was just ended recently. It's not a bet I'm gonna be interested in making.
11:30
It's not a game I'm really interested in betting on, but we will briefly touch on it, um, a little bit later on in the show. All right, coming up next, we, we do have bets to make in the NBA.
11:39
We do have bets to make in the Olympics. Drew Dincic, Will Capner coming up next on the other side of Numbers Game.
11:44
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12:43
All right, our numbers game returns here on Tuesday morning, the morning after the Home Run Derby, the day of the Major League Baseball All-Star b- uh, Game.
12:51
But let's put all that to the side for a minute, because we have some NBA to talk about, and for that, of course, we bring in our pal Drew Dincic, analyst for NBC Sports Edge and the Deep Dive podcast.
13:00
Follow him on social media at whale_capper. Drew, it's great to talk to you, pal. I feel like we're kind of in that zone where you're, you're excited about the NBA. We're getting some numbers for win totals.
13:11
We're trying to figure out what's going on in Summer League. It's that weird post-season, uh, no calm after the storm.
13:18
I mean, it just seems like the season continues as the NBA here in Vegas, it's been an exciting week so far, uh, in Summer League. For sure. And, uh, you know, I think, uh,
13:28
there's been a little bit of a, a kind of a, a change in my opinion of how the, uh, conferences are imbalanced. Uh, I'm, I'm outside of the, what the Thunder have done.
13:37
I'm not impressed whatsoever with any of the contenders in the West.
13:41
And so, uh, what looked like it was gonna be a wide open, very difficult to handicap and, and fun to enjoy seeing it play out Western Conference is now all of a sudden, um, you know, I think a lot of the very good teams, uh, have gotten a bit weaker.
13:56
Um, and uh, I can ve- very clearly see that, uh, the win totals reflect my expectations that you have, uh, a number one with a bullet in the Celtics in the East, um, a number one with an advantage in Thunder in the West, and then, uh, a little bit of a miasma after that.
14:12
Hmm. Um, not a, not a clear and obvious, um, uh, stratification between the Knicks and the Sixers, which is interesting.
14:18
I personally would put the, uh, Sixers higher in terms of championship equity, but lower in terms of regular season expectations, and that's kind of where they're sitting. So I think that's very, that's reasonably fair.
14:30
Uh, still a lot of, [chuckles] a lot of, uh, what do you call it? I guess maybe respect for the Bucks. Putting the Bucks- Hmm... in the 50 win category still is, is interesting to me.
14:39
I mean, I- they, they should have a healthier season, you would think, from, uh, their two stars.
14:44
But, uh, that rest of that roster is getting older, and they didn't really get any support, so, uh, that's kind of fascinating.
14:49
And then the Mavericks ra- rounding out the, uh, the expected 50 win teams isn't a huge surprise. Um, but, uh, yeah, wow. There, there's, there's no catching the Bucks sleeping here.
15:00
The Magic in the 47 and a half range was a number that I was excited to see where that opened. That looks pretty fair.
15:06
The Grizzlies in the 46 and a half range, like, all right, you're not gonna get, you're not, you're not, we're not getting any freebies, uh, this year in the win total market- Hmm... from what I can tell so far.
15:14
And I think it's really just gonna come down to, um, you know, if you can, uh, you know, s- just find a little bit of imbalance in terms of division and schedule strength and things like that may be, may be the only way to pick on these.
15:26
Yeah, and, and that's interesting because, you know, we, we, what did we just see? We just saw the Thunder overachieve a little bit in the playoffs.
15:33
And I, I'll be honest, I was surprised to see them at the top of the Western Conference, and we've seen that number move up since it opened. I remember 54 and a half, and now we're seeing 55 and a half.
15:43
I- is it, is that gonna trend gonna continue? I- i- is Oklahoma City really worthy of this perch heading into the season? Yeah, I mean, it's, it's a double-edged sword.
15:54
They got better and everybody else got a little worse [laughs]. And I think, like, uh, it is, maybe it, maybe it is, um, uh, recency bias.
16:04
I will admit that, like, I was caught up in how good they looked, particularly down the end of the regular season, securing the one seed and then dominating in round one of the playoffs.
16:13
It was all just sort of confirmation, uh, of, you know, this young core is legit, and now they've gotten their, you know, playoff, a little bit of playoff experience under their belt, and they have a young nucleus that is, you know, not just dynamic in terms of the way they can, uh, both attack and defend, but, uh, you know, just in general, deep, uh, young, healthy, uh, and, uh, they've added to their, some of their strengths to kind of give them even more, um, you know, dynamic looks.
16:42
So, uh, yeah, I, I honestly, uh, amazing coach with Mark Daigneault. Um, really, really smart, uh, front office, uh, an analytically sound team.
16:52
Uh, you know, they kind of check all the boxes in terms of the types of shots they go for, the types of shots that they avoid and in, uh, uh, with respect to what, uh, is, you know, high efficiency and, and, uh, plus EV kind of philosophy.
17:05
And, uh, yeah, I, I honestly, I, I can't say a bad thing about the Thunder, and I think realistically the, the West goes through them this year. Yeah, I mean, it, it is a lot of respect.
17:14
Um, Boston right now in terms of the, um, in terms of the futures market sitting at the top, but Oklahoma City in the Western Conference is right there, eight to one, uh, to win the NBA title.
17:25
Do you think their roster, the way it's constructed, are they mature enough to make a run through the playoffs?
17:32
'Cause win total is one thing, um, but now they have that playoff experience and, and, you know, in terms of what the futures market's telling us, they're, you know, just a step ahead of the Nuggets right now. Yeah.
17:43
Uh, it is a perfect roster in terms of playoff defense. Hmm.
17:48
Um, the question kind of becomes can they do a little bit better in terms of generating easy looks in the offense, you know, on the offensive side of the ball, uh, in the playoff, in a playoff setting?
17:57
Uh, we saw their offense get wildly stagnant against the, uh, Mavericks at times as they had, uh, you know, Lou Dort kind of occupying the dunk- dunker spot and, you know, mucking up spacing.
18:08
Uh, and I don't know if that will be just sort of lesson learned for Daigneault or, uh, if the, uh, you know, the players that they have now mean that they can just kind of put more dynamic lineups out there.
18:17
But, um, you know, there's, there will My guess is that the Thunder are gonna be a bet on in every playoff series and in every kind of in the futures market, because people, I think, are gonna be a little bit hesitant to believe that SGA can be sort of the best player in a series, the best player on a championship team.
18:34
Like, people saw Luka Dončić go toe-to-toe with him and take him down, and they're gonna assume that, uh, that, that, uh, Nikola Jokić is gonna do that.
18:42
They're gonna assume that, you know, you know, fill in the blank, like, superstar name brand player is going to get the better of SGA just because, you know, he doesn't have sort of the, uh, you know, the, the, um, the headline name appeal that a lot of the other stars do, and I think that, uh, that could change this year.
18:58
Drew, just, uh, w- you know, going back to these win totals quick, I, I feel like last year when these opened, or the past couple years, there's definitely been two or three that I kind of ran out and bet right away.
19:07
I'm not, I, I think I'm picking up that vibe from you already that I'm not really feeling the same way this year. A lot of the numbers felt very on point from what we saw from DraftKings.
19:15
We're still waiting on some other books to open. I- do you, do you think you'll be betting way- uh, one or two of these right away when you see them open elsewhere, or not really?
19:24
There's a couple at the bottom that I like the unders. [laughs] Okay. Um, my lowest projected win total last year, and my biggest difference, my biggest delta, was the Pistons. Oh, wow.
19:35
Um, they were like, well, w- I, I want to say it was, like, they, they were in the 20s. 27 and a half. Yeah. I bet them over. Yeah. I- Didn't work out well. Oh, no. [laughs] Oh, no, Kelly.
19:45
Uh, I was projecting them for 14 wins, and I was like, check... I was like, "I must have had, I must have a bust in my code- [laughs]... in my, in my calculator. Like, how did I get to this far off the number?
19:56
And, um, I'm looking at the same sort of situation here with a number of these teams at the bottom, most notably the Wizards and the Nets. And- Wow... um, I, I honestly, like, these are not really...
20:05
These are G League teams, you know, in general.
20:08
Uh, and, you know, maybe some of the, may- maybe a guy like Sar really does kind of have the goods to show up and play well right away enough to, to kind of get you a couple extra wins, but 22 and a half is a big number.
20:20
They just traded away their best player. Yeah. If they average, he's not on the Wizards anymore. Did you guys know that? And, and their best player is Deni Avdija. Yeah, like why in the world is this 22? Yeah.
20:28
[laughs] Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, number one, now is their best player. [laughs] Number two, he's not there anymore. So, like, yeah, I think, uh, ultimately, like, the Wizards at 22 and a half seems absurd to me.
20:37
Um, and, uh, I think just in general, uh, you know, I- I'm not including the Trail Blazers in my list of, uh, of pessimism. I, I think that team, uh, is better than people realize.
20:47
But, um, you know, there, there is a, uh, a number of squads here towards the bottom that, uh, I don't think we've got right.
20:54
Yeah, the Wizards under, I think, um, we had Nick Whelan on the show yesterday from Roto Wire, um, on one of the other shows on the network, and he was very, very high, or I guess low, on the Wizards, high on the win total going under.
21:06
Um, before we let you go, Drew, the Olympics, uh, i- it is a bettable event. Mm. It's something that I think it's super niche. Like, you've really got to do your research, because there's no stats available.
21:16
Like, you've got to, like, really understand the field. But tennis is your thing. They are playing tennis in the Olympics, and you think maybe the Wimbledon champion, Carlos Alcaraz, might be a little mispriced.
21:27
Yeah, that one was a weird one. Uh, so if you didn't already know, uh, the Olympics this summer are in Paris, and, uh, the tennis will be, tennis and boxing, interestingly enough, will be contested at Roland-Garros.
21:40
Awesome. Uh, and, uh, Roland-Garros, of course, the home of the, uh, the French Open.
21:45
Uh, and, um, mm, I don't know, about a month ago, uh, we saw Alcaraz win Roland Garros convincingly while playing at about 75% of his peak level- Yeah... which he showed very clearly at Wimbledon.
21:58
And so I'm kind of scratching my head as to how you could have anywhere close to the similar price that Alcaraz went off French Open as he is currently lined right now to win gold medal a- at, uh, at the Olympics 'cause, uh, you know, now that he's healthy, now that he's kind of got his in, you know, his full arsenal of weapons, uh, I think he should be closer to Pick 'em in this one.
22:19
Like, Iga is minus 190, not a lot of value on the women's side. But Alcaraz should kind of be in that same discussion considering how well he's playing right now. Drew Dincic, fantastic stuff.
22:27
Follow him on Twitter @whale_capper. Appreciate the time, pal. Best of luck, man. A Numbers Game continues after this.
22:34
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
Downtown Las Vegas, Jared Smith in for Gil Alexander today and tomorrow here on A Numbers Game. We want to thank Drew Dincic for coming on.
23:03
I already, um, uh, started to do some, some poking and prodding to the Olympic markets here in Vegas. I think Carlos Alcaraz, his pick for the, uh, men's tennis gold medal certainly has some upside.
23:16
Um, I did see, uh, two to one on DraftKings as we just discussed, but there's a plus 190 here in town, so I think I'm gonna be gobbling that up at some point. Um, in about 20 minutes, we're gonna get back to the NBA.
23:27
Um, Kelly Bidlin has some thoughts, not only on what we just heard from Drew, but also, um, taking that a step further with the win totals that were just released on DraftKings this week.
23:36
Very exciting stuff as the NBA kind of resets its fiscal year here in Las Vegas. Um, it- I haven't kept tabs too much on the Summer League, but I know JVT- Oh, I feel so bad, Jared. Yeah... I know.
23:49
I know JVT's been, been, been, been high on. I'm sure you've been really busy trying to keep track of stuff. [laughs] No, like, uh, you know, last year, last year was great. We were out there. We had a set out there.
23:57
We were out there, like, every single day. A little different this year. But, like, yeah, we got the Open going on, so we got long shots- A lot going on... to record in la- later today and everything.
24:03
I haven't been able to get out there yet, and it's, uh, it's a little frustrating 'cause I love the Summer League. It's great, man. You, you- Right...
24:09
run into some people you haven't seen, and it's just Just a fun laid back at... Like, if you love basketball, like, it, it, at any level, right?
24:16
You love basketball, it's just great to be able to hang out for a day, uh, and see all these different teams run through there.
24:22
And, and, you know, some great betting opportunities too, when you figure out who's gonna play and who's not gonna play. There are some interesting betting opportunities.
24:27
And of course, I, I, I believe that we are doing a lot of, uh, uh, online, uh, uh, stuff with, uh, the Summer League. So keep in, keep, keep, keep tabs on beastin.com as we continue to move forward.
24:38
Let, let's switch the conversation back to baseball for just a minute here, because what we didn't get a chance to talk about off the top, I kind of bloviated about how the Home Run Derby is becoming a dinosaur, um, and the All-Star Game being kind of a difficult betting event.
24:54
But I do think the All-Star break is kind of that time where I hit the refresh button, not only with the futures market, but also win totals, in-season win totals- Yeah... and, and, and all of those things.
25:06
I think tomorrow I'll have a little bit more win total vibes. I'm gonna do some research tonight, um, on FanGraphs.
25:13
I'm gonna really dive into what the expected numbers were compared to what the actual numbers were, and I'm gonna see if we can find some deltas there as we move on into the second half of the season.
25:22
But the futures market is intriguing. Um, don't need to do any, uh, you know, expected win total stuff there. We can just kind of reassess the market at the break and see if we can find any value.
25:33
And I think the National League Cy Young is the most interesting market to talk about. If you wanna go through, right- It really is... there's six, there's six markets really, right?
25:42
There's MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, each league, times it by two, that's six. I think the MVP is done and dusted.
25:48
I, I, I don't think anyone looking into the MVP market right now is going to find a legitimate reason to fade Aaron Judge, barring injury, unless you know that he's gonna get hurt.
26:00
I don't think anyone is going to find a legitimate reason to why Shohei won't win it, unless he gets hurt. So besides that, it's just, it's really tough to handicap injury. Better chance of losing there, Shohei or Judge?
26:13
Shohei. Shohei? Okay. Just because of there's no one in the American League. I've enjoyed that question because I feel like it's a snap answer right away with Shohei. Right away. So it is, it does tell you a little bit.
26:24
I mean, I mean, yes, he's minus 290, Aaron Judge minus 310, so the odds would tell you Judge a little bit more favored to get there as well. Not a huge difference there. But yeah, not a huge difference.
26:31
I, I just think Judge's analytics are so off the charts, right? The F war, G war, P war, I don't know, whatever war they wanna tell you, it's, like, ridiculous.
26:43
And I, and Shohei's on that level too, but I think Shohei plays on a team that is much more suited to pick up the slack if he ever were to miss time.
26:56
If Aaron Judge gets hurt and gets pushed to the side for the Yankees for a month, that's it. Like, I, I don't- Yeah, no...
27:02
I don't think Soto can carry the load, and I don't think they have anyone else on that roster that can really carry the load.
27:08
Whereas the Dodgers have, I know Betts is hurt, but they have Betts, they have Freeman, even Teoscar Hernández, who won the Home Run Derby last night, is having a very productive year. They are a deeper lineup.
27:17
Now, their pitching rotation isn't as good, but that has nothing to do with the National League MVP odds.
27:21
We're talking about just the lineup, and if Shohei got hurt, I, I, or if, or if left, you know, had, had to miss any significant time, I, I just think the Dodgers are better suited to fill his void, and to me, that's what an MVP really is.
27:34
Mm-hmm. Like, if you leave the game, the game leaves with you. And I think with Judge, that kind of is the vibe I get with the Yankees offense this year. He's such an imposing presence in the middle.
27:44
He's having such a good year. I think he is the better of the two choices.
27:47
But regardless, there, there's no value in that market because I think both of those guys are winning it, and so if you are betting someone else, you are drawing dead.
27:55
Now, if you want to go bet Aaron Judge and sit on a minus 300 for the next three months, then all the power to you, but that's not something I would advise here. The Rookie of the Year awards are intriguing.
28:07
I think if you asked me the, obviously National League is done and dusted. I'm talking about the American League here. I think the American League Rookie [laughs], Paul Skeens is the National League Rookie of the Year.
28:16
[laughs] That was good. I think the... I'll, I'll, I'll rephrase.
28:19
The American League Rookie of the Year is intriguing because we are developing into that situation, not quite like we saw in '21, but similar to what we saw in '21, where we had two players very deserving of the award.
28:33
They play different positions, so they're obviously graded on a different scale.
28:37
Now, the caveat in the '21 Rookie of the Year market for the National League was they both played for the same team, Michael Harris and Spencer Strider. It was a very, very intriguing race in terms of precedent.
28:52
Michael Harris won it. I think that brings the value down of the pitchers a little bit, because Spencer Strider was very deserving that year.
28:58
He burst onto the scene, very much Skeens-like, and just were mowing people down left and right. Yeah. But he slowed down a little bit later in the year. His ERA was elevated.
29:09
The K, the K per nine numbers were fantastic, but Michael Harris was more consistent. I think that's where Wyatt Langford has become this hot commodity.
29:19
I don't think he's won the award yet, but I think he deserves to be the favorite. I think Luis Hill deserves to be the second favorite, and I think behind him is just a mess.
29:28
I heard our pal Dustin Sweetison text me a little bit earlier o- over the weekend. He said Colt Keith of the Tigers at 40 to 1 was an intriguing bet for him. I agree.
29:36
I do think there is a chance that somebody can still come from the back of the pack here and have an unbelievable two months and win this award. Do I think it's gonna be Colt Keith? Eh.
29:47
Do I think it's gonna be Willier or Breu or one of those guys on the Red Side? No. I, I, I do think Langford right now deserves to be the favorite. I don't think there's any value in this market. Yeah. Now...
29:57
No, go ahead. No.
29:58
No, I was just gonna say, that one's interesting 'cause you do, like you said, you got that, you, you, you've got the, the, you know, the position player and then a pitcher right at the top, so it's- How do you value each position?
30:06
Right, how do, how do you value each- We've seen the voters say they value the position players more. Yeah.
30:11
Well, well, and I also think there's, it, it, it's more sustainable to have a higher floor as a position player, right? You're playing every day. 'Cause you're playing every day.
30:19
I mean, you go- One start, recency bias lasts the whole week. Exactly. Exact- I mean, you go out there and have two bad starts, all, I mean- Two weeks... Luis Hill's number drops to what? 8 to 1, to- Yes...
30:29
9 to 1 in this market? So I, I do think that part's interesting as well. Hey, and you know, it goes the other way, right, right, as well.
30:35
Luis Hill goes out there [laughs] and has three amazing starts in a row, and- It's almost like an accelerant. Yes. Yeah.
30:39
The, the, the way the pitcher, uh, you know, compared to the hitter movements in these markets, it's almost like... It's basically multiplied by five. Yeah.
30:48
If a pitcher goes out and has an unbelievable start, it's a significantly more, uh, you know, accelerator to the market than if a position player goes out and has one good game. Like, it has to be a whole week.
30:59
So again, these are just little nuances. This is why I think the Rookie of the Year market's actually one of my favorite to handicap every year, because you do have a very definitive gap between pitchers and hitters.
31:11
The voters recently have told us they favor the hitters, especially the hitters that play premium defensive positions.
31:17
That's why I really like Jackson Merrill in the National League, but it's just, it's Paul Skeens is just having that good of a year. It doesn't matter this year. This is one of those years.
31:25
And that's, and that's where we go now, because the n- I, I think the Cy Young Award, not in the National League, but in the American League, does intrigue me a little bit. I, I think when you look at...
31:35
Actually, frankly, both, both National and American League Cy Youngs, because Skeens, [laughs] Skeens is alive in that market, too.
31:41
But let's start with the American League, because I, I think Tarik Skubal, as much as I value what he's done, I think he is not going to win this award. I don't. I think this award's up for grabs.
31:52
I- Feel like I'm starting to hear more and more of that, yeah. I honestly do. I love Tarik Skubal.
31:57
I think he's having a fantastic season, but I think the fact that Corbin Burnes, who has not had a great first half, I think he's had a
32:06
good first half, but by his standards he has not been as good as he has been in prior years, I think there's upside with him. In fact, I would bet on him right now to win this award.
32:18
I think Logan Gilbert is alive as well. I got him at 16-- or excuse me, I think it was either 16 or 18 to 1, like, a month ago. I think that's as far down as I'm willing to go. I think right now Gilbert is live.
32:31
I think Burnes is live. I think Skubal does not deserve to be odds on. Based off of those things, I think I would bet Burnes right now in this market. I think in a month...
32:41
Let's, let, let's just, let's play it forward to tonight, 'cause I also think tonight will have an impact, and w- I think we can talk about that later in the show.
32:49
Um, but you've got two guys right now that are not favored to win the Cy Young that are starting the game, and I think that's intriguing to me. Mm.
32:55
Because right now what the overall climate of baseball is telling us, those two guys are the best pitchers in their respective leagues, and they're not favored to win the Cy Young. Again, this is not a statistical award.
33:08
This is voted by people watching the sport. That will obviously take the statistics into account, but
33:16
I think guys that start in the All-Star game, I know it doesn't count in your stats, but I think that sways the mind of the voters. We'll continue to talk about the Cy Young markets later in the show.
33:25
When we come back, back to the NBA, we've got some interesting win totals to talk about. Kelly Bidlin has a whole list of them. I'm gonna be pulling out my phone to bet some of them probably.
33:34
Numbers game continues on the other side.
33:36
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
All right, we are back downtown Las Vegas. Jared Smith in for Gil Alexander today and tomorrow. Kelly Bidlin here as well. Our numbers game rolls on.
34:00
Top of this hour, very excited to have Tyler Shoemaker on, VSiN writer, contributor, does a great job, um, handicapping tons of different sports.
34:07
Right now we are in WNBA season, and he's got lots of numbers to get to, um, on the WNBA card, and we'll get to him at the top of this hour.
34:16
We will get a little NBA win total, uh, vibes from Kelly Bidlin in just a minute. But I wanted to quickly, um, finish the Cy Young conversation. By the way, awesome tweet we just got from Michael Burns.
34:26
Thank you very much for watching the show, Michael. I have to read this tweet 'cause it's really funny.
34:30
He says, "Skubal's not winning the American League Cy Young 'cause he's gonna be on the Dodgers before the deadline." [laughs] I'll be honest, I don't think that's going to happen. Would it shock me if it does?
34:38
No, that would not shock me at all, and yes, that would very much shift the [laughs] Cy Young market- Yes, it would, yeah... considerably if Tarik Skubal ends up departing the American League completely.
34:51
It's one of the nuances to the baseball markets that you don't always think about, but is possibly looming because of the weird way that it's structured.
35:03
[laughs] Yeah, just some- something you don't have to think about in other sports, that you do. Uh- It's the only sport that you have to think about that. Baseball is unique for a number of reasons.
35:10
It's b- that is one of them. The other one, it's the only sport where the dimensions of the field are different every stadium you go to. It's crazy, yeah.
35:17
And it's the only sport where the managers dress the same as the players. It, it, it has these weird nuances to it.
35:24
Obviously, Tarik Skubal changing leagues would just be, uh, pun intended, a massive curveball to that market. Again, I don't think it's going to happen. I wouldn't bet on that happening.
35:35
That's not why I think Corbin Burnes may be just slightly underpriced here. [laughs] But if Tarik Skubal does end up getting traded, then Corbin Burnes is winning the American League Cy Young.
35:46
I feel very strongly about that. How absurd is that? Like, I've never... I don't know how often I've thought about that of, of like- Uh, it's the first... I didn't think about it until just now, until he tweeted it.
35:52
No, but when you put it, like, with the, with the coaches, the coaches dressing like the players- Oh, yeah... w- what sport, what other sport would the, would that look the most ridiculous in? Football, 100%.
36:01
Football over, over NBA? Wearing pads. Like, you wanna see Gregg Popovich wearing, like, wearing, like, an NBA uniform? Here's the thing about the NBA uniforms, they're just kinda tank tops. R- yeah, yeah, yeah.
36:11
Like, there's no pads and there's no, like- Yeah, do you have to be wearing full pads... paraphernalia that goes along with it. [laughs] Imagine Andy Reid, full pads, helmet.
36:20
Like, he's got the elbows, he got the this, he's got everything. Again. I'm on board for this. They- [laughs] They should do that for a year. I wanna see that. Wanna see Andy Reid- Yeah...
36:28
come out in just full paraphernalia. Um, all right, let, the, so the, I think the American League, don't bank on Schoopel getting traded. If it happened, it would be wild. I don't think the Tigers wanna trade him.
36:38
Um, but if they did, they would get a king's ransom for him. I think the National League is where the most intriguing conversation comes up.
36:46
I think I could probably do a whole show on the National League Cy Young Award winner. It's fascinating, yeah. So while Paul Skenes, last Friday, Paul Skenes made his final start before the break in Milwaukee.
36:55
He was basically perfect, for lack of a better term, uh, for most of it. I think he gave up a walk or hit by pitch. No-hit through seven innings. Got a little fatigue late.
37:03
I, I'm okay with the decision, um, the Pirates made taking him out. Actually, I heard, I heard Skenes was part of the decision-making process. He said, "Hey, I was gassed," and they took him out.
37:11
I know there was a lot of uproar about, "Oh, you can't take out a guy when he's pitching a no-hitter." If the pitcher himself says, "I'm out of gas," you take him out of the game.
37:17
Yeah, conversation over there, yeah, yeah. Conversation over right there. Anyways, that event was a market catalyst.
37:25
As that start was unfolding, I noticed it was arguably his best start of the year, and they hadn't really moved the Cy Young number down mid-start. I got 18 to 1 at MGM mid-start. I knew it was gonna keep coming down.
37:41
It did. It's now five to one. All right, now we have a completely different argument to make. Skenes was 125 to 1 when he got called up. Very quickly got pushed down to the 50, 60 to 1 range.
37:53
Then over the last month or so, we've seen the brief trickle down every start or so. Goes down to 40 to 1, 30 to 1, 25 to 1. Then we saw 18 to 1 heading into that last start.
38:03
Now the big move, the big move from 18 to 1 down to five to one to the third favorite on the board. Now we have a very different discussion to make. I think the market right now is priced fairly.
38:14
I think he deserves to be the third favorite. I think he has win equity in this market, but I think Chris Sale and Zach Wheeler have the inside track. It comes down to me quantity over quality.
38:26
There is an element to the Cy Young Award winner, you need to have the flash, but I think you also have to have the longevity. Right now, Paul Skenes does not have that.
38:35
66 and a third innings, the other guys have thrown twice as many innings. That matters now. It won't matter as much if that 60, 50, 60 inning gap is 130, 180. Yeah, but it won't be, right? That matters less.
38:52
I, I mean, isn't that, isn't that gap gonna only continue to increase we think? I, I mean, isn't Skenes gonna likely slow down down the stretch or not really? I don't know the answer to that question. Okay. All right.
39:02
I, I think right now- 'Cause that would've been the pushback a month ago, right? Six weeks ago, right? Six weeks ago the pushback was they're going to shut him down. Right. Well, I don't know if I'm 100% sure about that.
39:14
When I was a little bit more sure about that, I was a little bit more projecting the Pirates would be out of the race, and I didn't really fully grasp the l- the, just how good Skenes has been.
39:31
Like, and I think that's the part of this that I, I've changed my opinion. My opinion over the last month has changed on Paul Skenes in this market. First of all, the Rookie of the Year market's over.
39:43
He could get struck by lightning tomorrow, he's gonna win the Rookie of the Year. I hope he doesn't, but he's... That, that award is done and dusted.
39:51
I think the Cy Young conversation revolves around how many innings he can last at what level. If he gets to 140, I think he's got a chance to win this thing.
40:01
If Chris Sale or Zach Wheeler miss any time, and when I say any time, I mean, like, two weeks, because all of a sudden if Zach Wheeler goes from pitching 200 innings to now 180, it's a different conversation. It, it is.
40:16
I, I think the only thing Wheeler and Sale have in their corner right now, quantity over quality. The quality of innings, Skenes' 66 and a third has been better than Sale's 110. It's been better than Wheeler's 115.
40:31
I don't think that's in question. The numbers say that they've been better, and I think our eyeballs agree with that as well. Yeah.
40:37
But the difference is can they continue to pitch on that level, and can they get to a point where they've at least shown you that they are a viable starter in the major leagues and not just a flash in the pan?
40:50
I think 130 is the minimum. I'd like to see 140. And if Ske- and if, if Sale or Wheeler get, you know, shut down for a week or two, and all of a sudden their numbers...
41:01
'Cause to me, 200 innings, I think both of those guys are on pace for 200. If they fail to reach 200, which is kinda like this magic number,
41:09
I think that's where really Skenes, I don't think necessarily should be the favorite, but kinda on par with those other two guys if he can continue to pitch at this quality.
41:17
Unfair question I'm about to throw out, throw out at you. Okay.
41:19
But with Sale and Wheeler, r- like, right now where their numbers are at, like, I mean, are they, are they comparable to, like, what a Cy Young Award winner- Sure... has been in the past?
41:29
Like, both, both deserving resumes, right? Sale's wins above replacement according to FanGraphs is, is really good. Okay. Um, his ERA, expected ERA, expected numbers across the board, elite.
41:41
But to me it's all about right now quantity. 'Cause you're talking about, like, you're talking about...
41:45
I, I, I ask that just because you're talking about two very good pitchers on two very good teams, right at the top of this board, and it's just, it just feels like there would have to be...
41:54
Where's the hole for one of them to not win? You know, a- I, I think that's the way- As if-... that I'm looking at it... as if one of them, for example, this back injury that Zach Wheeler missed his start on Sunday for.
42:04
Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. If that's an actual injury. Yeah. And it's not just the Phillies saying- we want to give him extra rest. Because again, he's at 116, his ERA is fantastic.
42:14
Wins above replacement, not as strong as, as Sale. Expected numbers, not as strong as Sale. I think that's why Sale's the favorite right now, because he's got the analytical edge. Wheeler's got, I think, the longevity.
42:26
He's got a little more innings, plays for the better team. I think he's a little bit more... Eh, actually, I'd say they're both pretty name brands. Where Skene's... Now, I don't, I would not bet Skene's at 5 to 1.
42:37
I wouldn't. That number's gonna stay there for a while. Yeah, yeah. You've got time to make a decision here. The real big move was the no-hitter.
42:43
Now, to be fair, if he goes out and throws a no-hitter first start out of the break, well, then maybe it move, moves a little bit more. [laughs] But I also think tonight's gonna matter too.
42:51
I think if he shows up tonight, throws 103, 104, strikes out three guys in the first inning, I wouldn't be shocked if the number moves a hair. I, I wouldn't be shocked.
42:59
It, it's one of those th- it's- Doesn't count for the stats- Yeah... but I still wouldn't be shocked.
43:03
I mean, Jared, it's one of those things, like, and Gil and I have talked about this so much, but it is, like, you gotta keep it in mind with awards betting, right? It is something like that tonight- It's politics...
43:12
tonight will not, should not- No... will not matter in any statistical form for the Major League Baseball season, but it's political, right? It could move the market. Voters are gonna see that happen.
43:21
And I mean, that's, we, we, we ran through a bunch of the numbers just last week. It's like Skene still d- still doesn't real- still doesn't even really belong in the same conversation- No... with these top couple guys.
43:30
But okay, the allure, the not- notoriety, the press that's around this guy, you can't ignore that. It's the projection forward. Correct. Again, that's what the expect...
43:38
The, the expected numbers, I think that's the big confusion a lot of people have with the expected numbers. When I talk about things like expected FIP and expected ERA, I'm not talking about the past.
43:48
The point of those numbers is to project the future.
43:51
Now, that's why Sale's the favorite in this market right now, because his expected numbers are better than Wheeler's, and so we are projecting that he has a better second half.
44:01
But Skene's numbers [laughs] are better than all of them. He just hasn't done it for as long a period of time.
44:08
It's the time horizon that is the enemy of Paul Skene's, whereas the quantity for the guys like Sale and Wheeler are in the positive side. We didn't get to the NBA win totals and the...
44:18
We're, again, the, I could do a whole two hours on the National League Cy Young. We'll come back to it. Great conversation. We'll get to it. It is really good conversation.
44:25
Also good conversation on the other side, Tyler Shoemaker, WNBA. Stay with us on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music]
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