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Jul 16, 2024
A Numbers Game | July 16, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | July 16, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So are those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Last hour, best hour here on a Numbers Game.
0:11
I'm Jared Smith, excited to be with you live from the D in downtown Las Vegas. Kelly Bidlin along with us as well. And joining us now, very excited to talk to this man. Uh, he was just in town, uh, a couple weeks ago.
0:23
Now he's back in his home perch. Uh, Tyler Shoemaker, VSiN writer and contributor. Follow him on social media @TShoIndex. Hope it was a, i- i- i- if you stayed cool, I hope it was a fun trip for you here in town, Tyler.
0:36
Oh, I, I had a great time. It was not cool by any means. It was not cool [laughs]. But it wa- it was a, it was a great time. You were cool, but the temperatures certainly were not.
0:43
[laughs] Um, the temperatures have been risen in the WNBA of late.
0:46
We are approaching the Olympic break, which is a very nice little breather, um, for I'm sure you cooking up these numbers every day, but also just the players who won't be participating in the Olympics.
0:56
Um, I believe it's a full month off, right? I think it's starting this week, and then they get a full month off for the Olympics, right? Yep.
1:03
So there's game- games today and tomorrow, and then we're off for a month, which like you said, I am grateful for- [laughs]... so I can kind of work on some football stuff a- as well in the meantime.
1:12
Yeah, no rest for the weary. Um, all right, let's get into today's games 'cause you have an article up on vsin.com right now, best bets and projections for today's games. There are three of them.
1:21
We will start with the Mystics and the Mercury. Looks like the, uh, Mercury, about a four and a half point road favorite here. What are the numbers telling you? Yeah, I, I play the Mystics here.
1:33
Uh, the Mercury really need this break. They are not playing well over the last few games. They've also been dealing with some injuries. I only project the Mercury as about a half-point favorite here.
1:42
I'll project a total at about 167 and a half, so again, I like the Mystics plus the points here. Yeah, I, I haven't paid too much attention to the Mystics this year.
1:51
I have watched some of the Mercury games because they played some pretty high-profile, um, match-ups there. The total sitting 169, little juice to the over. Anything intrigue you on the total in that game?
2:03
Not currently, but if it's gonna continue to go up, I may end up getting involved with the under. Good stuff. All right, let's move on to the Storm and the Sparks. Uh, Seattle's a big favorite here on the road.
2:14
LA's obviously struggled this year. They're one of the worst teams in the m- uh, WNBA, especially defensively. I'm sure it, it hasn't gotten any better, uh, since Cameron Brink got hurt.
2:23
Um, but the Storm again, laying a pretty big number on the road here. What do you think? Yeah, this is kind of a tale of the teams going in different directions, like you said.
2:31
The, the Sparks are just, after Cameron Brink went down, their defense completely went down the toilet. Uh, the Storm on the other hand, are kind of surging right now over their last three to five games.
2:40
So I only project this at Storm minus five and a half. But looking at the more recent games, that number would go up to about eight and a half, nine, which is where the market has been on this.
2:50
So I don't really have a strong play here. I wouldn't wanna bet against the Storm in this spot. Um, I do like the under. Um, it's, it's kind of bounced around 162, 163, uh, here this morning already.
3:01
Um, I would like it anything under like 161, I would probably play it. Have you, uh, i- is it hard when you have a player like Cameron Brink, um, to reassess your numbers after she gets hurt?
3:15
You know, the, the, the Sparks haven't been a very good team this year, but she's so important to them. I- is, is that been a, a difficult adjustment for you?
3:24
Yeah, well, and the even harder thing I think was to really get a gauge of her value because she didn't really play all that many games.
3:31
So trying to take that small sample size and then figure out what she was worth and then project out the rest of the season, you know, without her in the lineup, that, that definitely has been difficult.
3:41
Um, so it, it's been hard to get a handle on, on the Sparks, uh, from a p- a power rating standpoint. Hmm.
3:47
On the progressive guest line, it's Tyler Shoemaker, VSiN writer, contributor, um, does a fantastic job handicapping the WNBA. Follow him on social media @TShoIndex. Let's continue with today's card.
3:58
Um, the Chicago Sky and the Las Vegas Aces. This one's gonna be fun. You get A'ja Wilson, uh, you get Angel Reese. I- it arguably two of the best, uh, bigs in the WNBA.
4:09
Obviously, the Aces are a big favorite at home here in Vegas. Uh, what does your numbers say? Yeah, I, I wrote about this today.
4:17
I th- I think Angel Reese has to look at A'ja Wilson and think, "That's what I could be in a perfect world." Like, if everything clicks and Angel Reese develops her skills, like A'ja Wilson would be like the
4:30
perfect outcome for, for an Angel Reese, uh, athlete profile. Uh, as far as this game goes, uh, again, the, the Aces are really surging right now.
4:38
I mean, since they got Chelsea Gray back in the lineup, they've either not lost or only lost one. Uh, they've been playing great. I project them a 13-point favorite.
4:47
I've, I've only got the total at 166 and a half though. I bet it at 171 earlier this morning, and then it's already shot up a couple more points, uh, beyond that. So I really like the under.
4:56
I don't, I don't agree with the market move here on this total. Uh, the A- the Aces defense of late has really come along, so I, I really like the under here.
5:05
Do you notice, and, and, you know, you pay really close attention to these markets, i- is it usually side or total that has the biggest movements on a day-to-day basis?
5:13
And do you tend to see the market move in the favor of where your number is, or do you see a lot of value when your numbers kind of, uh, go in a different direction? I would say de- definitely totals move more.
5:26
I think you'll s- you'll see more fluctuation on the totals than the sides. Uh, as far as whether they move in my direction or not, I mean, I would say 70% of the time they move in my direction.
5:36
But as we know, the WNBA market is not a very efficient market. Nope.
5:39
So, uh, you know, because of lower limits and things like that, books are responding to less credible information, you know, via bets from, from the bettors.
5:48
And so you'll see lines move a couple points, you know, in my, in my opinion, in the wrong direction.
5:54
Yeah, it's, uh, I think the WNBA is one of those markets that I, I would call it evolving, and I, I'm really interested to see how this new influx of attention...
6:04
money, all of those things from this Caitlin Clark bonanza we are currently going through, um, have an impact long-term on the market. Before we let you go, I do wanna ask you very briefly about the futures market.
6:15
It, not necessarily on the team side, but on the player side. We were talking about the Angel Reese/Caitlin Clark Rookie of the Year debate. It, it feels like a political debate.
6:23
It feels like a presidential election, um, with Angel Reese now being the big underdog, uh, and Caitlin Clark being obviously the big favorite, but you think maybe that gap should be a little bit tighter. Yeah, I do.
6:34
I mean, Caitlin's having a great season, and again, I, I wrote about this at VSiN last week. Do I think Caitlin Clark's a better basketball player than Angel Reese? Yes, 100%.
6:43
Obviously, she can shoot better, dribble better, pass better, all of those things. That being said, Angel Reese, uh, I mean, her value to her team, I've got her worth about two and a half points to the spread.
6:53
I've got Caitlin worth about a point to the spread right now. Uh, Angel's having a, a great season. I don't think she should be six to one. I think that should be much shorter.
7:01
So I, you know, I think if you wanted to get involved in that market, I think Angel Reese would be the play at, at, uh, plus 600. You see, that's interesting to me.
7:09
Kelly, I don't know if you feel the same way, but when I watch those two players, Caitlin Clark being worth less against the spread to Angel Reese, I think that would surprise some people. What do you think?
7:19
Yeah, I, I mean, I haven't watched a ton, uh, thi- this season, but man, every ti- every time I turn on, I, b- I mean both those teams, I, I mean, I see it with Angel Reese. I mean, she's been a double-double machine.
7:29
Like, I get it. Like, Caitlin Clark's... I, I mean, uh, I think it's something special with Cai- Caitlin Clark too. We talked about it a lot at the beginning of the season.
7:37
It's very clear that teams are out to hunt her a little bit- Yes... with, with her coming o- o- onto the scene. So I, n- that doesn't surprise me. It really doesn't surprise me.
7:45
I also don't know if there's any way Caitlin Clark's losing that award [laughs] with, with how much when we talk about voters, right? Yeah. And it's their opinion on this stuff.
7:53
I think the politics nature of this award will keep me away from it, Tyler, but I agree with your premise. Six to one feels long, yes, yes.
8:00
Six to one feels a little bit long, but then I go, I keep going back to this word that I use a lot, you guys use it in the golf world, win equity. Yeah.
8:08
Like, I think the six to one actually feels short compared to what her win equity actually is 'cause I j- I...
8:14
Now, to be fair, I haven't handicapped the votership in the WNBA like I've done votership in the NBA and in Major League Baseball, where I kinda, I feel like I have a better grasp on what the voters respond to.
8:26
I have no idea what the voters are gonna respond to this year.
8:28
Tyler, it do- it feels very political, and it, it almost feels like a point where just because Angel Reese is worth more against the spread, which I agree with your, I agree with that sentiment, but I don't know if that's gonna resonate at all with the voters, which is why I struggle with getting to the window on her.
8:46
Yeah, no, I, I 100% agree. This definitely feels political, you know, in the sense that I don't think any numbers or data presented is gonna change someone's mind one way or the other.
8:56
I think you've, you think what you think and, and you're gonna stick to that. [laughs] Yeah. I think people are pretty stubborn in this debate, as they are with, with politics in this country.
9:03
So, uh, I, I definitely agree with that. I d- I don't know that any amount of data is gonna sway someone one way or the other.
9:09
Speaking of data, have you, uh, noticed anything intriguing in the prop market in the WNBA this year? I know that market has evolved considerably.
9:16
Is that something you're ever interested in getting involved in, or do you think the sides and the totals, because of how you bake your numbers, is kind of what you wanna focus on?
9:24
So early in the season, I was playing quite a few props. Uh, I have a pretty reliable site.
9:28
I don't personally make, uh, prop projections, but I have a pretty reliable site that I use, and early in the season I was able to find some huge edges, and that, that has pretty much gone away.
9:37
I mean, I was getting, like, 25, 30% edges. Now that, now the most I'll see on a day is, like, four and a half, may- maybe six.
9:45
So I've really laid off the props here lately and just stuck to the sides and totals because the, the model's been pretty, pretty good at, at projecting those. The model is modeling, as they say.
9:54
Tyler Shoemaker, fantastic work, my friend. VSiN writer, contributor. @TShoIndex is where you can find him on social media.
10:01
Enjoy your, I guess I'll call it an Olympic break, but I know you're gonna be working during that break, so you're not gonna be taking a whole lot of time off. No, I, absolutely.
10:10
I'm, I'm working on, on transitioning my numbers to a, a new website, so that's, that's a whole undertaking in and of itself. [laughs] It seems like the model is also modeling on a different website as well.
10:20
Great stuff, Tyler. I appreciate the time, pal. We'll talk again soon. All right. All right, thanks, guys. See ya. Yeah, I...
10:25
If, first of all, if you don't follow Tyler and you are not familiar with what he does, not only in the WNBA world, just wait for college football. Yeah.
10:32
Um, he was unbelievable last year with his college football numbers.
10:34
All of a sudden we had this new resource that we could rely on to kind of cross-reference things and, and, you know, the, the college football rating services, there's a lot of really good ones out there.
10:45
Tyler's was really unique last year. Yeah. He had some spots last year that you didn't think were gonna be there, and they were. Long story short, follow him, support him, look at his work on vsin.com. It's fantastic.
10:55
Ah, I wanna get to the window on Angel Reese, but I can't do it. Uh, it's s- I can't do it. I'm glad you circled back on this. It's the- I can't do it... how do we...
11:02
Like, throw the whole political conversation out the window with so much of this stuff- Too much politics involved... so much of this. Yeah, but throw that out for a second. This is the...
11:08
Isn't this Victor Wembanyama all over again? Like, on December 1st, he was not the Rookie of the Year in the NBA. He wasn't. Chet Holmgren was beating him out in everything that you would look at.
11:17
But, like, was there ever a chance he wasn't gonna win the award? And I just think that's Caitlin Clark all over again. I think what- And Angel Reese's been amazing. I, it does- She is...
11:26
it does not surprise me at all that Tyler's numbers say she's worth m- worth more to a spread than Caitlin Clark. I'll be honest, of the entire interview we just did with Tyler, that was the most informative part. Mm.
11:36
That was really, really informative, and it kinda shows you what the actual oddsmakers think of the Caitlin Clark/Angel Reese debate. All right, we're back on the other side. More baseball on Numbers Game.
11:47
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12:03
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12:46
Back with you here from downtown Las Vegas. I'm in for Gil Alexander for the next two days, today and tomorrow.
12:52
Um, before we get into some more baseball chatter, I wanna read this tweet from our pal Corbin, um, Corbino13 on social media. Thanks for the tweet, pal.
13:00
Um, he asked us if you guys have seen the videos for the new NCAA video game.
13:05
Curious if either of you played the last one, will be playing this one, and then he [laughs] tagged it with he's a grown, grown-ass man talking about video games. Yeah, it, it-- that's where I struggle here.
13:17
I play-- This was, like, my childhood. Xbox, PlayStation. Yeah, I was gonna say, maybe we're like the same age, so. We are. I'm 38 years old. I grew up in the, you know, late '90s, early 2000s.
13:27
I grew up in the Sega Genesis- Yeah... Super Nintendo era. I had a Nintendo, graduated to Sega, loved me some Sonic the Hedgehog, loved me some Joe Montana Football 94.
13:37
Then graduated to the Super Nintendo, obviously N64 with Mario Kart. That was like God for about, uh- Yep... you know, a, you know, few years.
13:45
And then once I got to the PlayStation era, that's when I started to transition to a little bit more shooter games. I was a big fan of, like, Hitman, and, like, that kind of stuff. I played FIFA a lot. Mm.
13:55
And then when I got to college, that's when we started getting involved in dynasties with college football, and I had a group of friends in college that we played college football.
14:06
We had our own little dynasty league a few years after. This is like 2010, 2011, 2012. Mm-hmm. We were very hat and heavy into the college football 2013, 2014, uh, era.
14:15
And you were high-- Were you high, um, at that time, were you higher on that game or, or, or Madden? That, college football. Me too, not even close. Madden was not a big thing for me after my youth.
14:26
I, I, I think after the, after the first five, six years of Madden- Yes... or whate- well, that's not fair, 'cause Madden goes back to, like, the computer era of 1999. I was never big into Madden.
14:34
I preferred- I, I liked it-... college football, FIFA, and shooter games, role player games.
14:39
I liked it, but it di- I, it, the, the, it hit a point where it stopped making such vast improvements that it lost, it lost my interest, and I really haven't played much Madden in, I don't, I don't know, 15 years.
14:47
I like college football because I like the-- I like college football more than the NFL. So I like the NFL more than college football, but that game was always a better experience 'cause you could do more fun things.
14:57
The game was a better experience, yes. You could recruit, you could do all this stuff. Like, you know what I mean? You could-- I mean, everybody does the same thing, right?
15:02
You're running out five-star freshmen to start right away so they get, they get better quicker, and you're cutting seniors and stuff off the team.
15:08
Um, I, Corbin, just to answer your question, I felt like it was while I was handicapping golf for hours yesterday, and my entire Twitter timeline was, uh, you know, dudes like us playing this, playing this video game.
15:19
We've been waiting on it for years to come back. Yeah, I ca- I cannot wait to get my hands on it and play it. Uh, I think it's gonna be a little bit for me. Uh, but, uh- Gonna be a little bit for me...
15:27
yeah, but, uh, it, it is-- I, I know we've all been waiting on it for a long time, and it's great to see it back. Here's the issue I have. And do we just have names? Do we have names under the kids now? Yes.
15:35
Like, that part I di- I guess I didn't see on videos yesterday. Names under the kids. Here's the issue that I have. Oh. Time. Right, exactly, yes. I had-- Back in the 2010- I'm in the suburbs again [laughs]...
15:45
'11, '12 era, when I was just out of college, I wasn't working as hard as I am now, I wasn't as successful as I am now, I had time. I had time on my hands. I had time to kill.
15:54
I don't even have a box to play with anymore. [laughs] I have to go not only buy the game, I have to buy the console as well. I haven't had a console, gaming console in a decade.
16:05
See, I bro- I broke down during COVID during that, and I was like, "All right." I didn't have one. I was like, "All right, let me, let me buy, let me buy one here." You know what I did during COVID? I worked.
16:12
I was fortunate to be working during COVID, but I also was watching, like, every show known to man. You know what I watched the entire show during COVID? I don't even wanna think about it anymore.
16:21
Star Wars: Clone Wars was like-- I watched, like, all, like, 10 seasons of it. Is that the cartoon one? The cartoon one. All right. I'm just, I'm a nerd. Um [laughs] Hey, man, at least you can admit it.
16:30
Surprise, surprise. Um, I, I'll be honest, I, I don't think I'm gonna-- I don't know if I'm gonna get involved here. Okay. All right.
16:37
I, I, I, I think if I were to set odds on me spending time to go buy the console, get back up to speed with all the bells and whistles- [laughs]...
16:47
buy the game, get involved with the game, learn the new rules, learn the new format, and then create a dynasty, a team, a franchise, and go through... That sounds really time-consuming. So yeah, there's that.
16:59
There's also a part you kinda hit on there where, I don't know about you, but anytime I've actually played a video game in the past, like, six, seven years, man, have they gotten hard. Video games are difficult. Yeah.
17:10
I used to love playing, like, NBA 2K, and it's like, "All right, give me, like, 24-year-old LeBron James," and, like, I'm just going straight to the rack every time. I don't have the- Slam it home. Slam it home...
17:19
I just- But now you can't do that anymore. I gotta run plays out there and everything? Come on. I just don't have the same itch to be a gamer like I u- Yeah.
17:27
Like, I just-- Like, to me, the way that I view my life, everything has a purpose now, and for me to actually intentionally take time from my day to sit and stare at a screen, which is basically what I do all the day anyways, and not have a chance to make money from it,
17:45
the, the opportunity va- like, the value of that in my mind goes down. Like, if I'm gonna be staring at screens all day, I want, I wanna make freaking money.
17:52
Oh, man, in co- college there was a lot of money going back and forth over video games [laughs] Yeah, because you could bet on the g- I guess you could bet on you playing. But that feels like a bridge too far for me.
18:02
There was a lot of money changing hands back in the day for me, man.
18:05
I'm not gonna lie, I have wagered on myself playing for and against, and other people On those games before, but that was also a much stupider version of Jared Oh man, my fave- A lesser version of me My favorite would be college playing Madden, and we'd put money down, and then, and then it would just be, you know, we'd have like five-minute quarter clocks or whatever so it'd be quick as hell so you could get through games.
18:27
And I'd just run the ball every single down and run the clock out. [laughs] Have like one possession a half. Kelly's a ringer- [laughs] Oh, it was great... is what he's saying here. Yeah, I had a good time with that.
18:35
So I appreciate the tweet, Corbin. I think the long story is we just gave you the short- [laughs] We just gave you... the short version of the story is I don't think I'm gonna be getting involved here.
18:45
I think it's gonna be one of those things that I kind of... What's the SpongeBob meme when they're all playing outside, and I think it's Squidward up in the, up in the, you know, looking down, being all sad.
18:56
That's gonna be kinda my vibe. Mm. I'm gonna watch everyone else play. I'll live vicariously through my friends. I don't...
19:03
Here's, here is the one, here is the only way that I will get involved in this video game console. My nephew's nine years old. If he calls me and says he wants to play me, for him I would buy it. Boom, there you go.
19:14
That would be the only way that I would get involved here. Good Uncle Jared. There we go. Uncle Jared to the rescue. All right. Hopefully we get, um, Uncle Sam to the rescue with some of these baseball futures odds.
19:25
We talked a little bit about the Cy Young. Let's briefly touch on the divisions. Um, I'm pulling up the division markets now.
19:31
I'm gonna go through them one by one very quickly, and I'm gonna basically push the ones to the side that I think have no value. Yankees, Orioles, American League East, I think the Orioles deserve to be favored.
19:40
How much do they deserve to be favored by? Not much. So with the market now plus 115, it's relatively fair. I got plus 155 on Baltimore about two weeks ago.
19:51
I think if this gets back up to about plus 130, plus 140, that's where I would be interested.
19:56
Plus 115, yeah, I, I think Baltimore should be favored, but not significantly favored, so I don't think you're getting a ton of value at plus 115.
20:05
But I would not be shocked if the Orioles went on a nice little stretch to start the second half after slumping the final week of the, uh, final week for the All-Star break, and I think this market will flip relatively quickly, but I wouldn't go crazy here because I do think the Yankees are live.
20:19
Guardians, Twins in the Central, Guardians are gonna win. I, I don't think there's any value at minus 185. Astros, Mariners in the West is intriguing. I... Man, I have heard...
20:30
I think in the past two weeks I've heard three different bets in this division. Give me the three you've heard in all of those. Well, the, the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers.
20:37
Have you heard- Like, I have, I have heard different opinions on each one of them. What's the bull case for Texas? Give me the bull case for Texas.
20:42
I, uh, what, they're getting, they're gonna have some pitching come back, right? Uh, uh, just a lot, it was a lot of that, yeah. I, I agree with that, but here's the part that scares me. They just won the World Series.
20:55
If they continue to struggle and they see meat on the bone for some of these veterans, I think they're gonna trade Max Scherzer. Mm. Like, that is the first guy who will get moved.
21:07
That's what scares me about the Rangers. It's because they just won it, and it's just, it's hard to repeat in baseball. It's really hard to repeat. And I, I think,
21:18
I think if they go another couple of weeks and they don't get back over the 500 mark, I think if we get to July 31st and they're still six, seven games back under 500, I don't know if they can get to the wild card, because the wild card right now is pretty tough.
21:34
You've got the Yankees that are eating up a spot, or the Orioles. One of those teams is gonna, is gonna be- Right. Yeah... a wild card team.
21:40
And then you get the Twins, who are good enough to be, to win the division, but I don't think they're good enough to win the World Series, but they're a wild card team.
21:46
And, and I'll be honest, you get Boston, that's had a really good first half, very unexpected. Kansas City and Houston I think are right there, too.
21:53
You've gotta be- I mean, you're s- they're seven and a half games back in the wild card. They're five games back in the division. I don't think they can g- I, I don't think they're gonna make the playoffs.
22:01
I, I, I'm out on Texas. I think Texas is gonna, is gonna sell, um, because I think they have a young core coming up.
22:07
We were talking about Wyatt Langford winning Rookie of the Year, and I think they're gonna get a pretty penny for Max Scherzer, who's basically... Um, actually, let me check Scherzer's contract.
22:15
If Scherzer is a rental, and when I say rental, I mean he's a free agent at the end of the year, well then he's gonna command a very intriguing price.
22:25
If he has one year left on his deal, we'll get to a little bit, uh, uh, on the other side after we make our discussion with, uh, um, with, uh, golf coming up. But I, I think, um, I think Scherzer might get moved.
22:35
I think he might get moved. All right, Byron Lindekug is on the other side, host of the Back Nine Bets podcast. It's the Open Championship across the pond.
22:42
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. All right, we roll on. We're gonna get Byron Lindekug coming up, uh, in just a bit. He's in the queue.
22:59
Um, but I wanna finish the thought on Max Scherzer because, uh, I, I do think Texas is gonna move him. I honestly do.
23:05
So he's an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, which means he's a rental, which means he's gonna be a very cheap addition for one of these teams. Um, and I absolutely can see him getting moved.
23:16
That's why I'm out on Texas. And I think that is a big part to the futures market in baseball you need to take into account. You need to be sure before you bet on a team that they are not going to sell.
23:27
I was worried that Houston might sell before the deadline, but they kind of turned things around. Um, and I think they are back on track.
23:34
The rest of the futures markets on the divisional side, nationally, no value in the East. The Phillies are gonna run away with this thing. I, I, I love the Braves.
23:42
I think they have a chance to compete once we get to October because their rotation's very good at the top, but I am not very high on them overtaking the Phillies in the National League East.
23:53
The Brewers and the Cardinals are another very intriguing bet in the National League Central. Uh, Cardinals are right there.
23:58
I mean, they are, uh, basically three games back in the loss column heading into the All-Star break.
24:04
Um, and I do think, uh, uh, I do think Milwaukee, could be four games back, but I do think Milwaukee is a little bit vulnerable, and I could see St. Louis, uh, making up that ground.
24:13
National League West, not very intriguing, frankly.
24:16
Uh, the Dodgers and the Padres are going to be, uh, battling it out, but I think the Dodgers are, I think the Dodgers are a cut above Kelly, do we have, um, Byron for us? Byron's good to go. All right. Good to go.
24:27
Joining us now, uh, on the Progressive guest line, uh, Byron Limteco, host of the Back Nine Bets podcast, senior contributor at RotoBallers PGA website.
24:35
We're very excited to have you on, Byron, because, um, I have not done any h- I'm relying on people like Kelly, people like you, to get me up to speed on what we are going to see at the British Open across the pond this week, so the floor is yours.
24:46
First, break down the course for us, sir. Well, the course is gonna be quite interesting because... difficult section.
25:00
Then if the wind picks up, we're in trouble because wherever that comes from, it's gonna be all over the place. So, um, it may be like my signal right now. I think I'm lagging a touch.
25:09
Um, apologies for that, but it's gonna play difficult, it's gonna play easy. I think you're gonna have to do a lot of variations when you're trying to win this golf tournament this year.
25:18
Yeah, Byron, for the, for, for people handicapping right now, 'cause I, I get asked this a lot, too. The, we know weather's gonna be a factor at some point.
25:26
We d- we [laughs] it's very hard on Tuesday morning right now to predict exactly when that's going to come, especially when we're talking Scotland. What do you suggest to people out there trying to break this down?
25:37
We got tee times today, so you know when guys are go, uh, going off out there. Everybody's gonna start on hole one.
25:42
That is something to keep in mind, uh, for the Open as they go through just the course of the day with all O- with all the daylight out there.
25:48
What's your best piece of advice for people trying to handicap right now with, with the wind? Is it look at a weather forecast and make your bets now, or is it wait a little bit here?
25:58
I've been keeping track of the weather since Monday morning, and it's not the same [laughs] any time I post another screenshot in there.
26:05
So I would suggest waiting until Wednesday evening if you're in the States to kind of do what you need to do.
26:10
But, you know, obviously content creators have to pop out some things out there and kind of give some suggestions.
26:15
So we can kind of look at our favorite bets that I got my eye on, so to speak, before we go into all of that stuff.
26:20
But yeah, I'd definitely say the weather this week is one of the most important aspects of this tournament, for sure.
26:27
Weather seems like with this tournament every year there's always a curveball that gets thrown into the mix.
26:33
Is there a player, or I guess someone maybe at the top of the market, that is immune to the conditions conditions? Or is every player kind of in the same boat, where they are just at the mercy of the gods?
26:47
Yeah, I think that's one of the things that is the hardest to kind of quantify, is there's no real, like, stats that prove how good you are in the wind.
26:55
But sometimes looking at, like, Justin Thomas, for instance, he's exceptional in the wind when it comes to ball flight and controlling his trajectory, but yet his translation to open championships has been rather, rather poor.
27:07
I don't think he's had a top 10 at this tournament in his career, so tough scenes for him.
27:11
But guys like Brian Harman, who've got a good gritty blue-collar mentality that can kind of just tough it out for four straight days, are guys that make sense.
27:20
Sometimes the short hitters typically thrive in the wind because their ball flight's lower.
27:24
Um, at the top of the board, I think, you know, Ludvig, I think Jon Rahm, I think Rory obviously at, at single bullet range at 8 to 1 there is an option as well.
27:35
So just, there's a multitude of dudes, and I think you just gotta try to find your favorite and, and guys that model out well for you. Byron, I, I think this...
27:43
Is this tournament unique in the sense that it's not always the chalk... Right?
27:48
Like, usually when we think of the major, especially the Masters, it's hard to come from outside of, let's say, the top 10, top 20 on the odds board and win that thing. But last year, Brian Harman was what, 100 to 1?
27:58
Something in that range. Mm-hmm. Like, because of the volatility involved with this tournament, with the weather, with the course changing every year, does it lend to more long shot opportunities? Yes, in a way.
28:10
I will say that the volatility that you're speaking about is true, but from a trend perspective, since 2012, nobody with a finish worse than second in a prior major has won the Open Championship.
28:23
So you have to have finished second or first in a prior major to get yourself into the mix for the Open Championship and to win it. No one has done anything worse than a second.
28:33
So it's very, very important to have a major pedigree. It doesn't matter which major in my opinion, as long as you've contended or won one in the past. Love it. All right, Byron, uh, set us up with your card here.
28:43
Who are you targeting to win? Who are you targeting to finish high? Match-ups, whatever, uh, is on your docket for this week. Yes. So as I said earlier, I have not bet too many bets yet. I do have two outright so far.
28:55
Will Zalatoris at 220 to 1. He's a major dog. I mean, when it comes to him playing good golf, it happens at the majors. I understand his track record's quite poor right now. That's okay. He's 220 to 1.
29:07
I'll take a sprinkle. Wyndham Clark has been around that 80 to 1, 60 to 1 range. I jumped in on 80. I think he's also one of the guys I wasn't too worried about the wave advantage at that number.
29:16
And then Cam Smith is mi- minding his business at 50 and 60 to 1. I think these are all very nice guys at very nice numbers to kind of start your card with.
29:25
You can still probably play a Rory if you've gone with those three guys, too. So I think I'll be looking at Rory.
29:31
I think I'll be looking at Ludvig and kind of just paying attention to how those, those, um, the weather unfolds as tomorrow comes closer to us. But Tom Kim as well is another guy I'm really in the mood to play.
29:42
He finished second at the Open Championship here last year. He's sitting outside that 40 to 1 range as well.
29:48
And I mean, he, he notched that second place finish we were talking about, so youngster's got that major pedigree coming through. 220 to 1 on Zalatoris. Kelly, that, I, that number jumps out at me. What do you think?
30:00
Yeah, he's, uh, I, I, look, it's...
30:02
I think as Byron was talking about, he's isolated a few guys where if you're gonna be, if you, if you have the ability, as By- Byron said, some of us have to, some of us have to create content, so we've gotta make some of these bets earlier.
30:12
Yeah, right. But if you have the ability to wait till tomorrow night to, to make your bets, what you wanna do now is what he's talking about, is bet some of these guys that you know are only gonna get shorter. Yeah.
30:21
I mean, Zalatoris, definitely some injury concerns. You, you can't know for sure, but at a number like that, it's hard to argue with.
30:27
It's hard to argue with any of B- Byron's picks because they're only, he's only isolating guys whose numbers are getting shorter from the open to where they're at now.
30:35
Byron Lindacue, host of the Back Nine Bets podcast, senior contributor to RotoBallers PGA coverage. Great stuff as always, Byron. I guess we'll let you go with this.
30:44
Um, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy sitting at the top of the market, if you had to put one of those two chalky picks on your card this week, which of the two top favorites do you prefer?
30:56
I will take Rory, just based off the number, based off the track record at majors at the Open Championship. Scottie's only played three of these and his best finish is an eight.
31:04
You know, Rory's won one of these in the past and had multiple runner-up finishes recently. So I like Rory McIlroy at a golf course that should suit his driving ability. What do you think? Oh, like, I, I like it.
31:15
I think at those odds I would probably lean Rory myself as well. Yep. Rory McIlroy eight to one. I'll be honest, that's a tourist number.
31:21
I'm gonna go, uh, hunting in the bargain basement to try to find a good number on Will Zalatoris. Byron, I appreciate the time, pal. I, I'm not sure what time zone you're in.
31:29
For us here in the Pacific Time Zone it's gonna be a very early week. I hope you have a better sleep cycle plan, um, for the Royal Troon experience we are going to have, uh, this week.
31:39
Middle of the corn field here in Central Standard Time- [laughs]... in Iowa are not gonna be treating me much different to what the, the West Coast's doing for you boys. So- [laughs]...
31:46
we'll be grinding the coffee and, and having a good time just watching late night golf. I love it. Thank you so much for having me on. Yeah, of course, Byron. Uh, great stuff as always, pal.
31:54
Um, really good to talk to you. Of course, that's Byron Lindacue, host of the Back Nine Bets podcast. I, I'm going to be loading up on the, uh, uh, coffee and caffeine.
32:03
I think Friday night is gonna be my toughest one, because Saturday morning I have a really early show. Yeah, it's gonna be a long few days. So I'm gonna have to wake up really early on Saturday.
32:12
I'm not gonna watch Thursday, although I'll be up for the first round at the end. I'll watch a little bit of the first round leader vibes. Do you have any first round leader bets you thinking? Man, I...
32:23
See, that's, that, for me that's the ultimate- I love a first round leader bets... check, check the weather and for me to wait. Yeah. That is the... Like, we've got, we've got podcasts to do.
32:31
I, oh, also thr- I can use that as an excuse. It's not an excuse, though. Like, this is, there's a lot of bets.
32:37
Like Byron, if I wasn't creating content every day basically talking golf, I'd probably be approaching it like he is.
32:42
Doesn't mean we don't, we don't still have guys that are circled, right, that we plan on betting, and you just kind of want to make sure they're not gonna get the worst of the weather.
32:50
But as Byron said earlier, this forecast is constantly changing, and every year you watch the Open it changes from what you think it's gonna be Wednesday night, uh, to what it actually plays out like over the weekend.
33:01
So there is a, you know, we talk about this a lot of times I- in betting, right, Jared? There's a paralysis by overanalysis. Don't let that get you.
33:08
If there is a guy or two that you like this week, I, like, there's a couple. I bet Morikawa already. I love Morikawa this week. And if you get bit by the weather, it happens.
33:18
But a lot of that is very, very difficult to figure out exactly when that weather's gonna affect your golf. Volatility, thy name is Royal Troon. Yep.
33:26
Exciting stuff I will be watching this week, um, sleep-deprived, but I still will be watching. All right, we'll wrap up the show on the other side. A Numbers Game, live on VSiN.
33:35
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
All right, it's been a really fun show. Um, we'll recap the guests in just a minute, but first we want you to check out vsin.com. Why? Well, because we have all kinds of fun stuff today.
34:03
We just talked a little bit earlier in the show about Tyler Shoemaker's WNBA best bets, odds, and predictions for July 16th. I'm scrolling the page currently as we speak.
34:14
Not only does Tyler have today's games in there, but he also has an interesting play for tomorrow as well as we wrap up what has been a very exciting, I guess we'll call it the first half of the WNBA season, as they go on.
34:28
We don't have an Olympic break every year, but this year we have an Olympic break.
34:31
It'll be a whole month off, but today and tomorrow there are still WNBA games for you to bet on, and Tyler Shoemaker's got all of your action covered at vsin.com. All right, uh, now I will thank our guests today.
34:43
Drew Dincic, Tyler Shoemaker, one of those guests, of course, VSiN contributor and writer. Drew Dincic is an analyst for NBC Sports and host of the Deep Dive podcast.
34:50
And we just talked to Byron Lindacue, host of the Back Nine Bets podcast, with some great insight about the Open Championship coming up this week at Royal Troon. Thank you to all three of those.
34:59
Thank you to everyone in the back as well, and Kelly Bidlin of course doing a great job producing today, but also giving us some insight into the NBA futures market. I've been teasing this for, like, the last hour.
35:11
[laughs] You have a very, um- Oh, man... I guess you'll say, you'll call it intriguing look at the win total markets as we kind of spin this thing forward.
35:19
We're starting to see some movement with the NBA win total markets right out of the gate. Yeah.
35:22
I mean, these things have been basically fresh powder for about 48 hours now, but we're starting to see some, you know, some ski marks, uh, go through the powder as people start to eat into this thing.
35:31
I- is there anyone, any team in particular that really stands out to you? Yeah, yeah.
35:35
I'll, I'll run through a few that, that, that did jump out to me, but they are, uh, you know, as, if you listened to us with Drew Dincic earlier, none that I'm running to bet th- right now for this year.
35:45
I think he made a good point on the Washington Wizards, though that is not one I really consider. Uh, it is a low win total, 22 and a half. I don't think that team...
35:54
I, I mean, when we, we just joked about them trading away their best player and the best player's named Deni Avdija. Like, that is [laughs] that tells you something about where the Washington Wizards are at.
36:02
So I think an under on them would, would actually probably be a good play. That might be one I'll, I'll consider a little bit more. I didn't really look that far, uh, down the board.
36:10
Uh, the other one that distracted me in that range, uh, and we talked about a little bit, is the Blazers.
36:15
I'll go over a few of these here, and I didn't put the Blazers on this graphic, but I would include them, uh, with the Suns and Cavaliers, where overs for all three of those teams intrigue me right now, Jared, but there are, all three of those teams definitely capable of making trades here still before the season starts.
36:34
You've got... I mean, the Blazers have- Three quality centers. [laughs] That's like, I cannot imagine they're going into the season with...
36:40
You know, you just grad- drafted Donovan Clingan, you've got Ayton there, you've got Robert Williams still from that trade with the Celtics.
36:46
I would imagine they're moving one of those pieces, so would like a better idea of exactly what their team's gonna look like.
36:53
Uh, a- and they could, they could move more pieces throughout the season, so that would be my one concern with them. But they're, they were maybe the first team that I looked at and was like, "Okay, over."
37:02
Uh, overwritten all over that to m- uh, for me, 'cause I do like, I do like the makeup of their roster. You just don't know how that's gonna change.
37:08
The ones I was waiting on this year, and it's the past couple years, uh, we have had these win totals kinda get released during summer league, and there's been two or three that I've jumped on almost immediately, uh, the past few years.
37:19
I remember last year, I think there was four of them I bet as soon as these got released. Spurs was one, one I had circled. I was looking for, like, 32 and a half, something like that.
37:27
Of course, it's right up there at 35 and a half. I think that's about spot on. Uh, Drew mentioned it, but the Grizzlies over was one that I was looking at as well.
37:35
Yeah, I heard JBT talk about that yesterday, and that number's kind of been bet up, too. Yeah, and I think that's probably right where it, it should be at.
37:41
So, so a couple of the other ones I circled, um, uh, of just, they stick out to me a little bit. Nu- It's a lot of the high-end ones, and it's, uh, it's under.
37:49
Nuggets under 52 and a half, um, that is a, uh, that's a pretty big number right now on this team that... Look, they lose KCP. That's pretty significant, uh, to me. Uh, Dr- Drew brought it up.
38:01
This Western Conference, it, it's gonna have a lo- a lot... I don't wanna say a, a f- completely different look, Jared, next year, but it's going to have...
38:09
The buzz around it's gonna be completely different because there are not, there are not as many of that top-tier teams as we thought there were last year.
38:19
And I think what you're gonna see more of this year as the, as the Western Conference talked about is there's a lot of good teams in it. There's a lot of good teams in the Western Conference, not that many great teams.
38:27
And teams like the Nuggets are, are gonna take a step backward, I think, when they do... They're moving the pieces they have.
38:33
Jamal Murray they've still gotta figure out a deal with, which has kinda been some weird conversation around that. So if anything, it'd be lean in the under on the Nuggets win total.
38:41
I will say I did bet under on the Nuggets win total last year, too, and that was a loser, so you can keep that in mind. Was right around the same number, though. Um, Knicks, uh, b- the Bucks, uh, Drew brought it up.
38:51
Look, I, I will always be on here defending Giannis and Damian Lillard. I think they get it figured out at some point.
38:56
But man, that was one of the more surprising numbers to me of just, "Okay, we haven't really seen them do anything in the off-season."
39:04
Yes, they should be a healthier team next year, but Giannis sure still played a lot last se- last season. And 51 and a half after a very, very dysfunctional season feels pretty high. Um, Knicks are out to 52 and a half.
39:18
Yeah, that seems a little high. My, my, my thing with, my thing with them, Jared, a- and you're a Knicks fan, so you, I mean, you can help speak to this. It seems a little high.
39:25
I love the team that they've constructed this off-season. It's great. I think that they have some, they have some redundancy at positions which, which works in your favor in the playoffs.
39:36
In the regular season, my big concern is what happens with J- if Jalen Brunson goes down? They rely on him so much for their offensive output. I'm a little bit concerned on that. The defense should be great all year.
39:46
Um, you did lose Hartenstein, though. You're a little thinner down lo- down low with the bigs. I, I just... 52 and a half is a little bit higher than where I thought that was gonna be.
39:54
Again, none of these a bet for me, though. Um, Grizzlies I wrote down there. A- and So- Suns, Cavs, Blazers, I think I'm all, I'm interested in all of them.
40:03
I think, I think Zach Cohen wrote about Z- the Suns and the Cavs, actually, at vsi.com, uh, with overs on them. I think both, all of those are worth tracking.
40:10
But we heard about the Suns possibly moving a Duran or a Booker, uh, earlier in the off-season. I don't... Uh, around the draft.
40:17
I don't really think that's gonna happen at this point, but man, there was a lot of smoke back then of wh- of something like that happening, so I'm not completely ruling it out.
40:25
And the Cavaliers, uh, we've been hearing about Darius Garland getting moved for, you know, seemingly six weeks now, and it hasn't happened. So I think bo- both of those.
40:33
Cavs probably the most likely would be the one I'd be running to betting over on. Just gotta wait right now. There's no reason to rush a bet, uh, if you're not exactly sure what you're betting on.
40:41
I think there's some of those teams- Yeah... you just don't know what you're betting on at this point if you're betting win totals. Yeah, and again, I, I, the first move tends to be the sharp one with these markets. Yep.
40:51
So, you know, track them. We've already seen some initial movement, and see where the numbers move, and then try to find that number somewhere else. You know, the original number, right?
41:01
There's shop around, use all the markets to your advantage. These markets move slower than other ones do. They move slower than a straight side would.
41:10
Usually, if you have a big, high-profile game, side moves a half a point, the rest of the market tends to move lockstep very quickly after.
41:18
With these markets, win total moves up a half a win or a win, it's not uniform across the board. It takes time. Could take weeks for other markets, other sports books to catch up to a source of truth. Right, yeah.
41:31
And also, DraftKings I think is the only shop that has these up yet. That, I mean, that's what I was gonna say. That's one of the biggest points, too, of like y- I'm not...
41:37
A, there's nowhere for me to bet right now, 'cause I think DraftKings are the only ones with them posted. But yeah, you wanna w- I mean, you always wanna shop around. Doesn't matter what we're discussing.
41:45
You wanna be able- Let the full market come to you- Yes... and then adapt. And if you miss a number, then you just have to have the discipline to just move on from it. Yep.
41:52
Speaking of discipline, I wanna get to this story right before we sign off here. Um, we had a, uh, quarterback ranking list come out recently that was all the buzz, um, as we move to the NFL.
42:03
Very-- We actually went the whole two hours and didn't talk about the NFL. How about that? That must be a record here on the show. Um, but the reason I wanna bring this up is not because I disagree with the list.
42:12
I think the list is actually pretty good, of course. The top 10 quarterbacks according to the NFL executives, coaches, and scouts.
42:21
When you are looking at these lists, if Patrick Mahomes is not number one, just stop right now and move on, because the list is not made in a, a truthful way. The list is being made to clickbait you.
42:35
I am fine with debating two through 10. That is up for debate. You wanna put Josh Allen in front of Joe Burrow because Joe Burrow's been hurt the last two... That's fine. I, I'm, I'm fine with having that argument.
42:48
There is one argument that there is-- you cannot make. You cannot make the argument that Patrick Mahomes is not the best quarterback in the league. There is no argument. After that, I'm up for, up for sale.
43:03
You wanna move C.J. Stroud up, you wanna move Jackson down, you wanna move Stafford in, what- whatever. I'm, I'll listen to your arguments about anything else.
43:12
I will not listen to your argument that Patrick Mahomes is not the best quarterback in the league. When that argument is not Mahomes one- Yeah... I ignore you and move on- Oh, yeah...
43:22
because there, there, there, there's no constructive conversation to have if you don't think he's the fr- number one quarterback. There's, there's really not.
43:27
I also don't know, like, I don't know the context of exactly what the rankings are with some of these either. The- Me neither, and that matters... you know, like Stroud and Rodgers, right?
43:33
It's like, okay, well, are you asking me for who's the best quarterback for o- you know, for one game tomorrow?
43:37
Okay, yeah, I'm probably still g- I'm probably going with Aaron Rodgers at this point, but are we talking about- I'll take Stafford over a lot of those guys in front of him one game for all the marbles.
43:44
I'll take Stafford over Lamar Jackson one game for all the marbles in the playoffs. Me too. Yeah, me too. So again, I'm up for debate two through 10. You can debate me. I will listen to you. I will agree or disagree.
43:58
If you try to debate me that Patrick Mahomes is not number one, I'm turning off the TV. I'm muting. It's over. I, I do. The conversation's done.
44:05
I love Joe Burrow, but I, I, I would have Josh Allen number two on this list. I, I just- I would too.
44:09
But I understand why you want Joe Burrow on the list, because he's the only one that's beat Mahomes in the AFC Championship game. Yep, yep. So that's their debate. I won't debate John one.
44:19
I'll debate you guys tomorrow with other stuff. Wanna appreciate all of our guests, Kelly Vidlin, everyone in the back, fantastic stuff. The Numbers Game, I'm back tomorrow. In for Gil Alexander. We'll see you then.
44:28
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